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Author Topic: Revealed: Israel plans nuclear strike on Iran
TheDeamon
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quote:
Originally posted by moodi:
For the record, I am against Iran or any OTHER nation having such disastrous tools of destruction. Why? Because such weapons don't actually create "Peace". They create a false sense of it.

There is fairly compelling evidence that the fact that both Pakistan and India have nukes played a major role in their opting not to get into a shooting war with each other in 2002(if I recall correctly), US pressure helped, but the nukes were the deal sealer.

Likewise, I seem to recall repeated claims of MAD having played a very significant role in giving the US and Russia cause to not want to engage in any kind of open warfare with each other. Too much concern about the other side feeling their "backs are up against a wall" and pressing the nuke button and ending the convential war with the simple logic of MAD.

Scorched earth policies, got to love them. "If we're not going to win, we're going to make sure you can't either." BOOM, game over.

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Jesse
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Oh, I get the point Hannibal, totally, but how long did Israel talk to Jordan before official "Recognition"? Egypt first recognized Israel when it signed a peace deal. Your people are talking to Syria, and they haven't "recognized" you officially yet.

I seriousy doubt Iran is developing nukes out of a percieved need to protect it's self from Israeli nukes. I also don't think they're trying to develop them to destroy Israel.

I think they see it as the only way to ensure they aren't the next Iraq.

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moodi
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quote:
Originally posted by TheDeamon:
quote:
Originally posted by moodi:
For the record, I am against Iran or any OTHER nation having such disastrous tools of destruction. Why? Because such weapons don't actually create "Peace". They create a false sense of it.

There is fairly compelling evidence that the fact that both Pakistan and India have nukes played a major role in their opting not to get into a shooting war with each other in 2002(if I recall correctly), US pressure helped, but the nukes were the deal sealer.

Likewise, I seem to recall repeated claims of MAD having played a very significant role in giving the US and Russia cause to not want to engage in any kind of open warfare with each other. Too much concern about the other side feeling their "backs are up against a wall" and pressing the nuke button and ending the convential war with the simple logic of MAD.

Scorched earth policies, got to love them. "If we're not going to win, we're going to make sure you can't either." BOOM, game over.

Nukes might have stabilized the situation around the world but they surely didn't bring us peace.

Yes, we might have had more wars had there been no nukes, but the outcome of such a war, even if it comes around by mistake or craziness, might be too big of a price to pay.

Let's say Pakistani radars confuse a comet for a nuclear warhead from India or vise versa. Or let's say the terrorists buy or steal a small nuclear weapon from Russia and blow it up in NYC. Don't you think that such scenarios would kill more people than all the "avoided" wars combined (you have mentioned) would have killed? This is the fake peace I was talking about.

Note that we have made it clear that nuking us means a nuclear retaliation on our behalf. In the case of terrorists doing their dirty work, we might hold Russia responsible for their shortcomings (not securing their weapons)!

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Paradox
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What the US does if Israel launches a preemptive, nuclear strike to eliminate Iran's ability to produce weapons of mass destruction:

1) Secretly give the Israelites props for dealing with a problem that was too sticky for us. Publicly, remain mute or offer minor criticism for 'not allowing for diplomatic options (sic)' (like they could have used diplomacy, but....)

2) Declare Iran a NO-FLY zone. No one, but no one (Iranian, Syrian, Israelite or anyone else for that matter) flies over Iran without US permission (which we ARNT going to give, save humanitarian aid or other, trusted flights, and we escort those anyway).

3) Make it clear that the US had nothing to do with the Israel attack, and any hostile action (IE supporting increased terrorist action, harassing commerce in the Gulf, etc) will be treated as an act of war.

4) Increase US presence in the Mediterranean (primarily naval) and possibly deploy small amounts of US troops in Israel to 'keep peace', and use the presence of said troops to provide justification for increased US involvement should Israel come under attack.

5) Urge peace talks (though thanks to the no-fly zone, there shouldn't be much heavy shooting going on, thought expect Iranian/Syrian backed groups to be on the offensive). Possibly demand Israel to pay reparations (though simultaneuosly, but discretely, increase aid to Israel)

6) Begin damage control in Iran, offering (or just using) US military teams to evacuate civilians and deliver aid in the radiation zone. If Israel only uses very small nukes, and they are below ground, fallout will be problematic but managable.

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Jesse
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Yeah, and somehow recruit half a million men to make it work.

It's a neat theory, if we weren't in Iraq and Afgahnistan.

It assumes the attack would work, it ignores the immediate oil embargo against the US by Venzula (at least), it assumes that Israel would not be under immediate trade embargo by the EU, that muslims wouldn't attack every pipeline they can reach (they would), that Iran wouldn't launch everything they had before the US ever made any pronouncements (they would), and that 10 million guns wouldn't be leveled at our men in Iraq overnight.

There is a massive difference between a pre=emptive Israeli air-strike, and the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons.

[ January 18, 2007, 09:07 PM: Message edited by: Jesse ]

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TheDeamon
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quote:
Originally posted by Jesse:
Yeah, and somehow recruit half a million men to make it work.

It's a neat theory, if we weren't in Iraq and Afgahnistan.

Not that hard, though not very popular either I'd suspect.

There are something on the order of 15 million American between the ages of 18 and 25.

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Jesse
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Heh, good luck if the reason for the draft is to protect a nation that broke it's long standing promise not to be the first to use Nuclear Weapons in the Middle East.
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martel
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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/19/world/middleeast/19iran.html?hp&ex=1169182800&en=d7c7fad768076911&ei=5094&partner=homepage

Sounds like our good friend Khomeini has decided to crack down on nutjobs...hence, Ahmedinejad gets rebuked.

Who'da thunk we'd be thanking our old pal the Grand Ayatollah?

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DaveS
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Khamenei != Khomeini
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martel
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My bad.
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Big C
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"Sounds like our good friend Khomeini has decided to crack down on nutjobs...hence, Ahmedinejad gets rebuked.

Who'da thunk we'd be thanking our old pal the Grand Ayatollah? "

Despite your unintentional mispelling, one wonders who serious this "rebuke" really is.

Trying to figure out the workings of a closed society such as Iran's theocracy is like navigating a minefield. Are they saying what they mean? Or are they saying what they think we'd like to hear? Or are we hearing what we'd like to hear them say?

Whatever the reason--be it our (the US) fault or their world view/insanity--Iran seems to have set itself as a determined opponent to any US policy. I am reluctant to place credence in any pronouncement by Iran's government, especially if it seems to match US policy goals.

We (all forum participants) can argue endlessly about what this means. Perhaps in a week or two we will know whether Ahmadinejad (sp?) was actually rebuked or whether we fell prey to a disinformation ploy designed to delay serious debate regarding Iran's true intentions in terms of things nuclear.

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scouser1
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TO ALL AT AMERICAN ORNERY!!!
Yes, thats right, im back!!! Aww did u guys miss me???
And before I go any further: to the person who sent me a little "threat" in an email: How petty!!
You have excelled yourself, to go to ALL that trouble to email me a threat without being traced is just.....sad.....very very sad.
Going to all that effort just to try and "scare" me?? I dont think so!!
Whoever you are you don't scare me, far from it. All you did was give me a good laugh..thanks [LOL]

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Viking_Longship
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The US will stand firmly with Israel even if they attack one of our own ships. We proved that already after they bombed the USS Liberty. We have caught them spying on us on repeated occasions and have forgiven them.

Hezbollah grabbed a soldier. Isreal responded with a massive bombing campaign, that mostly hit civilians, some of them Christians, and actually left their enemy somewhat more powerful than when they started. How foolish of the western powers.

Ok Big C, let me see if i can anticipate your response. How would you feel if the Minutemen went across the border to Mexico, kidnapped a mexican soldier, and took him back to Texas. Mexico doesn't bother to talk to the US government, but instead starts bombing Texas. The minutemen are getting bombed now by people they can't stand to start with, so they start shooting home made rockets into Mexico since for some reason the US Army seems unwilling to protect its territorial integrity. Would you really fault the rest of the world if they told Mexico they should back off a little bit?

Martel, the Iranians wouldn't bomb Jerusalem it's a holy city to Muslims too.

The Iranians aren't all crazy jihadists. There have been massive pro western demonstrations there in the past few years. That's why their president is trying to provoke a conflict. If Bush goes the sanction then engagement route we might come out ahead on this without a shot fired.

THe problem is that Likud wants Iran taken care of militarily and is lobbying very hard to see that happen.

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TheDeamon
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quote:
Ok Big C, let me see if i can anticipate your response. How would you feel if the Minutemen went across the border to Mexico, kidnapped a mexican soldier, and took him back to Texas. Mexico doesn't bother to talk to the US government, but instead starts bombing Texas. The minutemen are getting bombed now by people they can't stand to start with, so they start shooting home made rockets into Mexico since for some reason the US Army seems unwilling to protect its territorial integrity. Would you really fault the rest of the world if they told Mexico they should back off a little bit?
Kind of bad comparison from my understanding of things regarding the minutemen:

The minutemen do not carry, or advocate to possesion of illegal firearms. They may be armed, but they aren't equiped to fight a war.

The minutemen do not act outside the law, they act in support of it. They monitor the border areas for suspicious activity, and upon noting some, contact the border patrol and/or local police and let local law enforcement deal with it. Under some cicumstances they may execute a citizens arrest, but that is as extreme as they get.

Basically, they're a neighborhood watch program, only the scope of their interest is specifically focused on people making illegal border crossings instead of watching out for potential kidnappers or cat burglers in their home neighborhood.

Also keep in mind since most minutemen are local to that area. It is quite possible for some of them to be running across illegal immigrants in the process of participating in an actual neighborhood watch program, as some of those illegal immigrants likely travel through their neighborhoods/property.

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Viking_Longship
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I am not accusing the minutemen of being terrorists. I don't think that Mexico would bomb us or the US Army stand by if they did. I was just trying to illustrate a way of seeing the Hezbollah/ Isreal besides the "poor persecuted Israel" mode without getting into "poor persecuted arabs" instead.
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Big C
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"I am not accusing the minutemen of being terrorists. I don't think that Mexico would bomb us or the US Army stand by if they did. I was just trying to illustrate a way of seeing the Hezbollah/ Isreal besides the "poor persecuted Israel" mode without getting into "poor persecuted arabs" instead. "

Unfortunately, you compared apples to oranges, or dates to cumquats, or possibly a**holes to elbows.

Hizballah has vowed to destroy Israel and murder Jews. I don't recall the Minutemen having such animus toward Mexicans. They're presently trying to subvert Lebanon's government because they know they'll never obtain an electoral majority. About this time, I like to remember that the Nazis never attained more that 35% of the vote....

Hizballah deliberately precipitated the crisis with Israel, many think at Iran's biding so as to draw attention away from the standoff regarding Iran's nuclear program. If most countries of the civilized world had an ounce of sense, they'd join Israel in exterminating Hizballah.

I guess the only Viking you resemble is a WWII era Norweigian named Quisling.

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Jesse
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C?

You really need to read up on what is going on in Lebanese politcs currently if you want to comment on it.

Christian and Sunni groups have also sided with Hezbollah in the current drive to reform the electoral system in Lebanon.

Currently, they have a "confessional" system, in which the voting power of each religious group is allocated based on a census nearly fifty years old and, honestly, not very well done even then.

It's not a "hezbollah vs. christians" scene or a Hezbollah take over attempt. Granted, they are trying to paint themselves as the leaders bringing about reforms that most Lebanese want, and it's good internal PR for them, but it won't result in them controling anything more than they do now.

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Big C
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"You really need to read up on what is going on in Lebanese politcs currently if you want to comment on it."


I wasn't aware that I was commenting on Lebanese politcs--other than my view that Hizballah is trying to attain ascendancy. I don't recall mentioning the Christians, or the Sunnis, or the Druze, or any other group in Lebanon.

If I want to talk about Republican politics, do I need to go back to John C. Freemont and the Lincoln-Douglas debates? If I want to talk about Venezuela's Chavez, must I go back to Simon Bolivar?

Lighten up Jesse.

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Viking_Longship
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Big C

You totally are missing my point.

Israel made Hezbollah stronger by reacting to the kidnapping of one soldier by launching a war. A war which ALSO subverted Lebanon's government.


As a matter of fact I do resemble Quisling physically, but so do a lot of people with norse blood. It's an unfortunate family resemblance. Don't call me a fascist pal. You wouldn't do it to my face.

One thing we really ought to come to terms with, and I think you understand this better than most people, is that we are the stronger party in the WOT by far. Hezbollah may want to do any number of things to Israel but they don't have the capacity.

Those terrorists who "threaten our freedom" can threaten it all day long. That doesn't mean they have the ability. They have the ability to threaten our way of life only because our way of life is so dependent on oil.

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Jesse
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C

Hezbollah isn't trying to gain ascendency by subverting the government, they're honestly trying to do it by ****ing off Israel and getting them to invade again so that they can be glorious patriotic resistance fighters while at the same time trying to win converts by providing services.

Hezbollah is the LAST organization that can afford a return to civil war inside Lebanon, and they can't run roughshod over the Christians, Sunnis, or Seccular Shiaa (AMAL still has almost 40% of the Shiaa, and few smaller parties have a few percent each) without starting one.

"trying to convert" would be a lot more accurate than "trying to subvert". [Wink]

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Big C
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"Those terrorists who "threaten our freedom" can threaten it all day long. That doesn't mean they have the ability. They have the ability to threaten our way of life only because our way of life is so dependent on oil. "

Viking:

I agree we are dependent on oil, and terrorists and others can certainly (and do) exploit this vulnerability. But they also have other ways to threaten our way of life--and they have, and I fear they will to an even greater extent. If you've flown in the last five years you've certainly experienced a change in our way of life. If we are subjected to smaller-scale but more widely dispersed terrorist attacks--such as bombings of schools, businesses, and government buildings--will our way of life not suffer?


and Jesse:
"Hezbollah isn't trying to gain ascendency by subverting the government, they're honestly trying to do it by ****ing off Israel and getting them to invade again so that they can be glorious patriotic resistance fighters while at the same time trying to win converts by providing services.
"
So if Israel invades Lebanon to punish Hizballah, does that not "undermine" the legitimacy of Lebanon's government? Is the focus of our disagreement solely based on my choice of the word "subvert."

You contend that Hizballah can least afford a civil war in Lebanon. I will say they can least afford it better than the other groups. Why? Because Hizballah receives support from two countries--Syria and Iran. What other countries supply these levels of support to other Lebanese factions?

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Big C
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Jesse:

One more thing, a suggestion:

Go to www.frontpagemag.com and click on the link to Islamic Mein Kampf -- it's a 5-minute flash video that looks at what some leading Muslims are saying these days. To be up front, frontpagemag.com is a website run by David Horowitz--a noted defender of free speech at colleges and universities, a debunker of Marxist rhetoric, and an indivdual who seeks to warn us about the threat we face from the likes of Hizballah, and other militant Islamists.

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Jesse
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C

It's exactly that support from Syria and Iran that would be threatened in the event of a serious Lebanese civil war.

The world will not stay out of it, not given the current climate. Hezbollah has invested a LOT in trying to garner the goodwill of other groups in Lebanon, and much of their support is a result of their patronage.

Without their hospitals and free clinics, without their water programs and trash pick-up, without their schools and loaned-out agricultural equipment, they wouldn't enjoy the level of support they do today.

Hezbollah plays nice inside Lebanon, and that's why they enjoy the status they do domestically.

A civil war changes that. The foreign aid is gone and they wind up with better than 2/3rds of the country hating them.

If heard enough from Horowitz, thanks. When the guy talks about the candelight vigil in Tehran days after 9/11 instead of just trying to push his simplistic bigoted agenda, I'll start listening.

It's roughly the same things as suggesting I go to Chomsky for information about the real intent of "the Zionists".

Edited for better analogy

[ February 03, 2007, 12:57 PM: Message edited by: Jesse ]

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Big C
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Jesse:

I see your point regarding Hizballah. Perhaps I was looking more into what I preceive to be Hizballah's intent and you were concentrating more on their actions.

Regarding Horowitz vs Chomsky, I take your point that they might be regarded as two sides of the same coin. I disagree, however. When Zionists begin chanting death to America and conducting indiscriminate bombings in Palestinian neighborhoods, I'll take this generalization more seriously.

Additionally, I find your characterization of Horowitz as simplistic and bigoted says more about your views than his. Since you know of him, you are aware that he was a "red diaper" baby, he founded "Ramparts" magazine, and knows the ways and language of the left intimately. Do you discount his views and work as simplistic and bigoted because they run counter to yours?

Your words aren't as harsh as mine have been in the past Jesse, but they are little different because they represent labling and namecalling instead of actually describing your disagreements.

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Hannibal
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Did the mosssad just killed a top Irani nuclear engineer in Iran ?

have anyone here heared about that story?

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Big C
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Did they?

A pity the engineer was not Ahmadinejad (sp?)

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Jesse
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Aye, C, but it's equally important to understand that Horowitz (before his reformation) was someone that I as a "liberal" still rejected!

Back then, he demonized all oposition and tried to polarize all discussion. He still uses the same tactics and that's why I have a problem with him (and Chomsky, who is just more snooty about doing the same thing).

Neither of them tries to present information to us so that we can use our minds, instead they try to spoonfeed exactly what we "need to know" to agree with them!

The most radical whacked out "zionists" ARE advocating hegemony over half of Iraq, and all of the Sinai, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. They have commited horrific terrorist acts in support of their cause.

Folks like that endanger Israel *and* the US whether or not they chant "death to America".

I hope Chomsky doesn't suddenly do an about face and start arguing Pro-Occupation causes....'cause then when I call him an elitist twit incapable of presenting objective truth or a balanced view of the situation...people might say it's just because I don't like his cause.

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Jesse
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Hannibal-

Haven't heard anything about it yet.

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Big C
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Jesse:

This morning (6 FEB) I heard that the United States Military Academy (West Point) had Noam Chomsky as a guest speaker.

Amazing, huh?

C

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Ron Weinberger
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I don't think it's quite smart to publish this.
Even if Israel does have plans, don't you think it should be abit secret.

This is the main problem with the Mass Media nowdays, Nothing can't be kept as a secret.

P.S.
As a member of this forum I do not think people shopuld discus about it before it happens.

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Hannibal
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why not?
you think that the iranis will be "less prepared" if we dont talk about it?

fact is, Israel destroyed a nuclear reactor in the past. the Iranis are extremely prepared and they keep practicing all the time.
thats one of the main reasons why doing it will be so hard

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Ron Weinberger
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As an Israeli soldier I know what we've got in our hands and I think our army is more then prepared aswell.

True, Israel did do a fantastic job back then in Iraq. That was a real "World record".
However, this time it's much more complicated.

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Hannibal
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Ron you got drafted? "congrats"
איפה אתה משרת?

As a Reserves Israeli soldier (IAF), dont get me started on what i've seen and what i know "we've got on our hands"

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Ron Weinberger
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Thanks, mate.
מודיעין - לא יכול לפרט כלכך, במיוחד לא פה.

Yeah, I fully respect you for being a veteran of the Israeli Army and I'm more then sure you know what we really got and able to do.

I trust our army and I'm more then sure we will make it, as always.


Hope everything is clear now.

Posts: 79 | Registered: Aug 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
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