Ornery.org
  Front Page   |   About Ornery.org   |   World Watch   |   Guest Essays   |   Contact Us

The Ornery American Forum Post New Topic  Post A Reply
my profile login | register | search | faq | forum home

  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» The Ornery American Forum » General Comments » Here comes the next ice age (Page 5)

 - UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!   This topic comprises 7 pages: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7   
Author Topic: Here comes the next ice age
TheRallanator
Member
Member # 6624

 - posted      Profile for TheRallanator   Email TheRallanator       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by G2:
quote:
Originally posted by Wayward Son:
[qb] This illustrates my biggest complaint about AGW deniers. Usually they throw up their hands and say, "Climate is too complex for us to understand. We don't know how it works, and never will. But we know that we aren't affecting the climate."/QB]

You have that exactly backwards. Here, I'll fix it for you:

This illustrates my biggest complaint about AGW believers. Usually they throw up their hands and say, "Climate is too complex for us to understand. We don't know how it works, super smart scientists tell us they do. But we know that we must be affecting the climate."

I was about to tell Wayward "Look to the anti-intellectualism of Creationists". But you spared everyone on this thread the effort.
Posts: 503 | Registered: Oct 2010  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Tom, since when do you post links? [Wink]
Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
So should we start calling the Heartland Budget and Strategy papers "Deniergate?" [Wink] [Smile]
Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The Heartland Institute has responded to the documents and has declared at least one of them--2012 Heartland Climate Strategy--is completely fake.

They are also incensed that anyone would steal confidential materials and release it to the public.

quote:
We believe their actions constitute civil and possibly criminal offenses for which we plan to pursue charges and collect payment for damages, including damages to our reputation....

The stolen documents were obtained by an unknown person who fraudulently assumed the identity of a Heartland board member and persuaded a staff member here to “re-send” board materials to a new email address. Identity theft and computer fraud are criminal offenses subject to imprisonment. We intend to find this person and see him or her put in prison for these crimes...

But honest disagreement should never be used to justify the criminal acts and fraud that occurred in the past 24 hours. As a matter of common decency and journalistic ethics, we ask everyone in the climate change debate to sit back and think about what just happened.

I don't have to point out the irony embedded in the above statements, do I? [Smile]

[ February 16, 2012, 12:11 PM: Message edited by: Wayward Son ]

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Scientific America has an article on the Heartland Papers, too. At the end, they verify at least some of the information:

quote:
However, blogger Anthony Watts and geologist Robert Carter have confirmed online and to news organizations that they have been paid or pledged money by the Institute as outlined in the documents. James M. Taylor, a senior fellow at the Heartland Institute, confirmed to ThinkProgress Green that the school educational project is ongoing.

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
G3
Member
Member # 6723

 - posted      Profile for G3   Email G3       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
A update...

quote:
According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless.

<snip>

Solar activity follows different cycles, including an 11-year cycle, a 90-year cycle and a 200-year cycle. Yuri Nagovitsyn comments.

“Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. The 11-year cycle doesn’t bring about considerable climate change – only 1-2%. The impact of the 200-year cycle is greater – up to 50%. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years. The period of low solar activity could start in 2030-2040 but it won’t be as pervasive as in the late 17th century”.

Solar Cycle 25, our current cycle, activity is off the bottom of the chart. It's below even Dalton Minimum levels and is well into Maunder Minimum levels when we had the Little Ice Age.
Posts: 2234 | Registered: May 2012  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
As far as I can tell, G3's quote comes from this article from the Voice of Russia. Unfortunately, it is very thin on the source of Yuri's comments and the details from which he drew his conclusions.

This should be compared to other sources that have examined the solar output to temperatures in the past, as summaried in Skeptical Science. Those studies have shown that total solar irradiance has declined slightly since 1960, while global temperatures have continued to climb.

So while a decrease in solar activity may help alleviate global warming, it seems unlikely that it will overwhelm the reason temperatures have been climbing for the past decades.

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Rafi
Member
Member # 6930

 - posted      Profile for Rafi   Email Rafi       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Incredible prediction from 2007:.
quote:
Originally posted by G2:
Science fiction author James P Hogan gives us a glimpse of this same tired story happening before:
quote:
GLOBAL COOLING: 1890s-1930s

The Times, February 24, 1895
"Geologists Think the World May Be Frozen Up Again"
Fears of a "second glacial period" brought on by increases in northern glaciers and the severity of Scandinavia's climate.

New York Times, October 7, 1912
"Prof. Schmidt Warns Us of an Encroaching Ice Age"

Los Angeles Times, June 28, 1923
"The possibility of another Ice Age already having started ... is admitted by men of first rank in the scientific world, men specially qualified to speak."

Chicago Tribune, August 9, 1923
"Scientist says Arctic ice will wipe out Canada."

Time Magazine, September 10, 1923
"The discoveries of changes in the sun's heat and the southward advance of glaciers in recent years have given rise to conjectures of the possible advent of a new ice age."

New York Times, September 18, 1924
"MacMillan Reports Signs of New Ice Age"

GLOBAL WARMING: 1930s-1960s

New York Times, March 27, 1933
"America in Longest Warm Spell Since 1776; Temperature Line Records a 25-Year Rise"

Time Magazine, January 2, 1939
"Gaffers who claim that winters were harder when they were boys are quite right.... weather men have no doubt that the world at least for the time being is growing warmer."

Time Magazine, 1951
Noted that permafrost in Russia was receding northward at 100 yards per year.

New York Times, 1952
Reported global warming studies citing the "trump card" as melting glaciers. All the great ice sheets stated to be in retreat.

U.S. News and World Report, January 18, 1954
"[W]inters are getting milder, summers drier. Glaciers are receding, deserts growing."

GLOBAL COOLING: 1970s

Time Magazine, June 24, 1974
"Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age."

Christian Science Monitor, August 27, 1974
"Warning: Earth's Climate is Changing Faster than Even Experts Expect"
Reported that "glaciers have begun to advance"; "growing seasons in England and Scandinavia are getting shorter"; and "the North Atlantic is cooling down about as fast as an ocean can cool".

Science News, March 1, 1975
"The cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed, and we are unlikely to quickly regain the 'very extraordinary period of warmth' that preceded it."

Newsweek, April 28, 1975
"The Cooling World"
"There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now."

International Wildlife, July-August, 1975
"But the sense of the discoveries is that there is no reason why the ice age should not start in earnest in our lifetime."

New York Times, May 21, 1975
"Scientists Ponder Why World's Climate is Changing; A Major Cooling Widely Considered to Be Inevitable"

GLOBAL WARMING: 1990s-?

Earth in the Balance, Al Gore, 1992
"About 10 million residents of Bangladesh will lose their homes and means of sustenance because of the rising sea level due to global warming, in the next few decades."

Time Magazine, April 19, 2001
"[S]cientists no longer doubt that global warming is happening, and almost nobody questions the fact that humans are at least partly responsible."

New York Times, December 27, 2005
"Past Hot Times Hold Few Reasons to Relax About New Warming"

The Daily Telegraph, February 2, 2006
"Billions will die, says Lovelock, who tells us that he is not usually a gloomy type. Human civilization will be reduced to a 'broken rabble ruled by brutal warlords,' and the plague-ridden remainder of the species will flee the cracked and broken earth to the Arctic, the last temperate spot where a few breeding couples will survive."

Notice the time progression? As we move through time into a more informed society, the time for fear mongering grows shorter and shorter. 40 years on the first cycle, 30 on the next, then 20. With the power of the internet, maybe we shorten to 15 years? Maybe we do, the trend is starting:
quote:
RIA Novisty(Russian News & Information Agency), February 8, 2007
"Instead of professed global warming, the Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015. The gradually falling amounts of solar energy, expected to reach their bottom level by 2040, will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-2060," he said, adding that this period of global freeze will last some 50 years, after which the temperatures will go up again."
Quoting Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the St. Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory. Full article at http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070115/59078992.html

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 95, 115-121 (2007)
"Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years"
Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian. The School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, P. R. China
Full article at http://www.springerlink.com/content/g28u12g2617j5021/fulltext.pdf

And from National Geographic:
quote:
"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."
By 2015, we're going to be back to global cooling and the next ice age.

And now, 2015 is here:
quote:
A mini ice age is on its way - and Britain is going to bear the brunt, warn climate experts.

The country will suffer decades of annual Arctic blasts and sub-zero temperatures due to a change in global ocean conditions and the sun getting weaker, it is claimed.

James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the UK should brace itself for colder winters from this year onwards - and the Thames could even freeze over.

Right on schedule.
Posts: 793 | Registered: Jul 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
TomDavidson
Member
Member # 99

 - posted      Profile for TomDavidson   Email TomDavidson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
http://www.skeptical-science.com/critical-thinking/uk-weather-report-lots-snow-coming/
Posts: 22935 | Registered: Nov 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Mynnion
Member
Member # 5287

 - posted      Profile for Mynnion   Email Mynnion   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
To be fair there are models that show a slowing of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. If those models play out the UK could see significantly colder weather. That does not of course contradict the fact that global temperatures as a whole are increasing. That would be why I like the term Global Climate Change as opposed to Global Warming. While both are accurate the later is a little more specific. [Exploding]
Posts: 1271 | Registered: Sep 2007  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
cherrypoptart
Member
Member # 3942

 - posted      Profile for cherrypoptart     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I wonder how Mexico along with Central and South American countries will treat the Canadians and Americans who are fleeing ice age temperatures along with advancing glaciers.
Posts: 7675 | Registered: Mar 2007  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Greg Davidson
Member
Member # 3377

 - posted      Profile for Greg Davidson   Email Greg Davidson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The bad news is that the current trend of record heat everywhere on the globe except for North Atlantic near Greenland is consistent with one of the very bad scenarios.
Posts: 4178 | Registered: Dec 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
And still the atmospheric CO2 level goes higher and higher, warming the planet.

And the oceans become more acidic.

And no predictions about the sun's strength are going to change those facts. [Frown]

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
cherrypoptart
Member
Member # 3942

 - posted      Profile for cherrypoptart     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Perhaps the only thing that has staved off the overdue ice age thus far and saved us all is man-made global warming which is balancing everything out quite nicely.
Posts: 7675 | Registered: Mar 2007  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Rafi
Member
Member # 6930

 - posted      Profile for Rafi   Email Rafi       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Greg Davidson:
The bad news is that the current trend of record heat everywhere on the globe except for North Atlantic near Greenland is consistent with one of the very bad scenarios.

Record heat, you do realize that is manufactured by manipulating past data to be colder, right? Warming stopped 18 years ago.
Posts: 793 | Registered: Jul 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Rafi
Member
Member # 6930

 - posted      Profile for Rafi   Email Rafi       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Wayward Son:
And still the atmospheric CO2 level goes higher and higher, warming the planet.

And the oceans become more acidic.

And no predictions about the sun's strength are going to change those facts. [Frown]

CO2 warming the planet, but warming halted 18 years ago. Oceans are just fine. Solar cycles are much better understood than climate and we can see with near 100% certainty that this cycle is a extraordinarily low one.
Posts: 793 | Registered: Jul 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
jasonr
Member
Member # 969

 - posted      Profile for jasonr   Email jasonr   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
CO2 warming the planet, but warming halted 18 years ago. Oceans are just fine. Solar cycles are much better understood than climate and we can see with near 100% certainty that this cycle is a extraordinarily low one.
Out of curiosity, are you open to or interested in the possibility that human produced CO2 is a major driver in warming, but that some other countervailing force (such as solar cycles) could intervene to nullify or even reverse said trends?

In other words, there is a scenario where AGW proponents are entirely correct, yet the planet either stops warming or even begins cooling.

Posts: 7629 | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
LetterRip
Member
Member # 310

 - posted      Profile for LetterRip   Email LetterRip   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
jasonr,

there are factors that will tend towards an ice age at some point - best estimates are around 1500 years away if we were at historical CO2 levels without anthropogenic forcings.

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n2/full/ngeo1358.html

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120108143727.htm

Posts: 8287 | Registered: Jan 2001  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Greg Davidson
Member
Member # 3377

 - posted      Profile for Greg Davidson   Email Greg Davidson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
you do realize that is manufactured by manipulating past data to be colder, right?
No
Posts: 4178 | Registered: Dec 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Fenring
Member
Member # 6953

 - posted      Profile for Fenring   Email Fenring       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Greg Davidson:
quote:
you do realize that is manufactured by manipulating past data to be colder, right?
No
Oh man, I was sure he had you there.
Posts: 1636 | Registered: Oct 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Record heat, you do realize that is manufactured by manipulating past data to be colder, right?
Where did you get that? [LOL]

quote:
Warming stopped 18 years ago.
Wishful denial. What do you think is going to happen this year, when the massive El Nino kicks in.

Oh, that's right, it'll start another cooling trend the year after that... [Roll Eyes]

quote:
CO2 warming the planet, but warming halted 18 years ago.
The last decade was the warmest ever.

Just think about the last few summers. Those will be the cool ones in the future. Wrap your head around that. That's how cool it's going to get for the foreseeable future. This is as much cooling as you're going to see for the rest of your life.

(Actually, there may some more cooling. But all the models show that it will trend upward. CO2 levels continue to rise; they continue to trap more heat. In a few more decades, what I said will be true. Rafi can deny it all he wants, but nature doesn't give a damn what he thinks.)

quote:
Oceans are just fine.
More ostrich denialism. Look at the facts. Facts trump ideology. The oceans are getting more acidic, because of CO2.

quote:
Solar cycles are much better understood than climate and we can see with near 100% certainty that this cycle is a extraordinarily low one.
And how are you going to extend, and increase, the cycle to keep up with the steadily increasing levels of atmospheric CO2? [Wink]

You better start bringing in God into your arguments, Rafi, because you seem to be relying more and more on miracles to counteract basic physics.

[ October 18, 2015, 11:24 PM: Message edited by: Wayward Son ]

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
jasonr
Member
Member # 969

 - posted      Profile for jasonr   Email jasonr   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Just think about the last few summers. Those will be the cool ones in the future.
Interesting that you seem to equate climate and weather with this statement. I'll confess that I didn't find the last few summer massively hot compared with previous summers in my lifetime, although I did find the past winter exceedingly and unusually cold.

So taking your premise, I take it if we have some unusually cold summers in the next few years, that means climate change isn't happening [Smile]

Posts: 7629 | Registered: Mar 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Fenring
Member
Member # 6953

 - posted      Profile for Fenring   Email Fenring       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by jasonr:
quote:
Just think about the last few summers. Those will be the cool ones in the future.
Interesting that you seem to equate climate and weather with this statement. I'll confess that I didn't find the last few summer massively hot compared with previous summers in my lifetime, although I did find the past winter exceedingly and unusually cold.

So taking your premise, I take it if we have some unusually cold summers in the next few years, that means climate change isn't happening [Smile]

jasonr is exactly right in this particular, as the "wasn't this a hot year, everyone?" rhetoric is entirely specious in terms of climate change. No one would physically notice an average one degree increase over several years unless they were looking for it. Now, if climate change in other parts of the world (like the Arctic) creates incoming systems that significantly change the weather patterns inland (note: the patterns, not the ambient temperature) then that could be noticeable.
Posts: 1636 | Registered: Oct 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
JoshCrow
Member
Member # 6048

 - posted      Profile for JoshCrow   Email JoshCrow   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Fenring:
Now, if climate change in other parts of the world (like the Arctic) creates incoming systems that significantly change the weather patterns inland (note: the patterns, not the ambient temperature) then that could be noticeable.

Out of curiosity, why is this aspect of "the weather" more relevant to you? I thought you were trying to get away from "weather" until you said this. Is "it's unusually windy lately" or "it's unusually dry lately" somehow more compelling? If so, do you count the recent droughts as something of significance in this regard, or maybe if they persist, or...??
Posts: 2281 | Registered: Mar 2008  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Fenring
Member
Member # 6953

 - posted      Profile for Fenring   Email Fenring       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Because if bizarre air currents caused by warming create significant effects like increased frequency of hurricanes or other weather conditions, this would affect day to day life in such a way that it would be noticeable on an anecdotal level. A 0.2 degree average increase, though, would not. We very frequently hear people utter the nonsense of "it's been a hot week, must be global warming", which is just bias confirmation at work. Contrast with "there are more tropical storms than ever;" this, if caused by warming, would be a kind of easy thing to spot.
Posts: 1636 | Registered: Oct 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Interesting that you seem to equate climate and weather with this statement.
Not really. Notice I didn't say "this last month" or "this last summer." I said, "the last few summers."

This last decade has been the hottest one on record. The average temperature over the ten-year period has been higher than ever before. Notice--average temperature. Not any particular month. The average.

This is climate. Average temperatures. Some days, some months, cooler than others. Others hotter. But on average, hotter.

Climate is made up of the average weather. And for the global temperatures to increase by 0.2 degrees, or 2 degrees (as it will, and probably more) means that you will have hot days, more than average. Just like we have been having over the past few years.

And for global average temperatures to increase to 2 degrees higher than now, well, then these have been the cool years. Whatever summer you've had, you'll be getting more of it. How much more depends on where you live and the idiosyncrasies of climate, but on average, it'll be hotter. The heat has to show up somewhere, sometime. [Smile]

So, yes, enjoy the weather, because the weather we've been having for the past few years will be the good weather, the cool weather, in a few more decades. For global temperatures to rise, we must have hot weather. We don't know exactly when, but it will come, in higher frequency, for longer periods. That's what climate change means.

So enjoy the cool weather we have now. It's going to get worse before it gets better. [Frown]

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Greg Davidson
Member
Member # 3377

 - posted      Profile for Greg Davidson   Email Greg Davidson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The risk is not a slightly higher temperature or a few more centimeters of ocean height. It's the changes that affect biological processes.

10-20 years ago one of the areas most affected by climate change was the Eastern Sahara, in a place called Darfur. In the last 5 years, some of the worst impacts have been felt in the Middle East in a place called Syria where 70% of the agricultural workforce were forced off their land and into cities.

The worst hit areas at first are likely to be in the wide equatorial band - Syria represented approximately 1% of the population in the threatened area.

Posts: 4178 | Registered: Dec 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Fenring
Member
Member # 6953

 - posted      Profile for Fenring   Email Fenring       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Greg Davidson:
The risk is not a slightly higher temperature or a few more centimeters of ocean height. It's the changes that affect biological processes.

10-20 years ago one of the areas most affected by climate change was the Eastern Sahara, in a place called Darfur. In the last 5 years, some of the worst impacts have been felt in the Middle East in a place called Syria where 70% of the agricultural workforce were forced off their land and into cities.

The worst hit areas at first are likely to be in the wide equatorial band - Syria represented approximately 1% of the population in the threatened area.

Regime change and climate change in the same country? That's gotta smart.
Posts: 1636 | Registered: Oct 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Pyrtolin
Member
Member # 2638

 - posted      Profile for Pyrtolin   Email Pyrtolin   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Food shortages due to poor weather have been a big driver behind recent unrest in the Middle East. It was one of the big factors in the Tunisian revolts, and had played into most Arab Spring events afterwards.
Posts: 11997 | Registered: Oct 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
See this analysis from PolitiFact about the link between climate change and ISIS. It was not the only factor in the civil unrest in Syria, but it was a contributing factor.
Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Seriati
Member
Member # 2266

 - posted      Profile for Seriati         Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Wayward Son:
This last decade has been the hottest one on record. The average temperature over the ten-year period has been higher than ever before. Notice--average temperature. Not any particular month. The average.

Do you have something new on this? I'm not convinced, based on the data collection methodology that any land or sea based systems are actually representative enough to produce an average global temperature, or that trends in land and sea based changes are not unduly influenced by collection flaws that break the statistical significance of the findings. I'm still not a denier of any sort, I just find the data inconclusive (at best) and subject to intentional manipulation in both directions (at worse).
Posts: 2309 | Registered: Jan 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
No, I don’t have anything other than what is published by the usual suspects. [Smile] If you have any specific criticisms that are not talked about on the internet, you’d best go directly to the sources.

However, do note that temperature readings are not the only indication that the Earth is warming. There is also ice melting in the Arctic and Antarctic; glaciers melting worldwide; temperature-dependent plant and animal species that are changing territory; Arctic pools that are heating and drying up; growing seasons lengthening and frost days shortening. Data from fields unrelated to climatology also indicate a worldwide warming trend.

Plus the simple fact that increased levels of atmospheric CO2 is trapping more heat, a fact (practically) no one disputes. So all this climatology business is to figure out how this trapped heat is affecting the climate, not whether it is happening.

Whether this last decade, or the decade before that, or the one before that, was the hottest in recorded history is really secondary. The Earth is warming, and our increasing the atmospheric CO2 is causing warming. And if Rafi’s going to argue that a set of data shows that the Earth has been cooling for the last 18 years, then he should also acknowledge that that very same set of data shows that the last decade was the hottest ever, and this cooling trend is practically non-existent. And we should be concerned with what we are doing to the Earth.

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Greg Davidson
Member
Member # 3377

 - posted      Profile for Greg Davidson   Email Greg Davidson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Do you have something new on this? I'm not convinced, based on the data collection methodology that any land or sea based systems are actually representative enough to produce an average global temperature, or that trends in land and sea based changes are not unduly influenced by collection flaws that break the statistical significance of the findings.
What flaw do you find in the satellite-based mneasurements from the CERES instruments that have been flying since the late 1990's?
Posts: 4178 | Registered: Dec 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Rafi
Member
Member # 6930

 - posted      Profile for Rafi   Email Rafi       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
March 16, 1986 Chicago Tribune ran the story. you can see the breathless horror here.
quote:
In 1986, scientists were “sure” that sea level would rise one foot on the East Coast in 30-40 years, and destroy beaches and buildings, receding shorelines by 1,000 feet.

So how did they do? There has been less than three inches of apparent sea level rise, most of which is due to land subsidence rather than actual sea level rise.

Again and again, the climate "scientists" get it wrong.

quote:
"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."

-- Richard P. Feynman.


Posts: 793 | Registered: Jul 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
TomDavidson
Member
Member # 99

 - posted      Profile for TomDavidson   Email TomDavidson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
It will be interesting, thirty years from now, to see how G# rationalizes this to himself.
Posts: 22935 | Registered: Nov 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
AI Wessex
Member
Member # 6653

 - posted      Profile for AI Wessex   Email AI Wessex   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I think I have it. Rafi/G# is politically O-neg. That means he can donate ideas and opinions to anybody who disagrees with him, but can't receive from anybody not exactly like himself.
Posts: 8393 | Registered: Feb 2011  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
You really shouldn't use a newspaper as your source for scientific information, Rafi.

Sea level has increased on the order of about 3mm per year for the past 30 years, and 3.2mm per year over the past 20 years - say about 9cm (3.4 inches). Assuming that the rate of sea level increase does not continue to rise, as it has been doing for the past 30 years, that would suggest we would see 30cm of sea level increase between 2000 and 2100. That's one foot, assuming no increased rate.

But what were the expected ranges of increases ending in 2100? According to the IPCC Assessment reports:

IPCC1 1990: low 30 cm, high 100cm
IPCC2 1995: low 15 cm, high 95cm
IPCC3 2001: low 20cm, high 75cm
IPCC4 2007: low 18-38cm, high 26-59cm
IPCC5 2014: low 26cm, high 82cm

So if we maintain the same rate as for the last 30 years for the next 85 years, sea level increase will actually be within the range modelled by the contributors to all 5 of the IPCC assessment reports.

Of course, that lowest rate of increase is based at least partly on only the smallest future increases in CO2, levels which are not expected to continue, but which mirror what we are experiencing today.

So basically, the 5 assessment reports are spot on.

The moral of the story: don't read the Chicago Tribune and expect to get a thorough and unbiased scientific summary.

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Since we're still waiting for the upcoming ice age, here's a brief update on the past couple of years of monthly global temperature anomalies, courtesy of GISS LOTI:
  • The 10 warmest 12-month averaged periods in the instrumental record have all ended this year - that is, every 12-month period ending this year was warmer than any other 12-month period in the instrumental record.
  • The last 12 36-month periods have all been warmer than every other 36-month period in the instrumental record.
  • The last 24 60-month periods have all been warmer than every other 60-month period in the instrumental record.

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Greg Davidson
Member
Member # 3377

 - posted      Profile for Greg Davidson   Email Greg Davidson   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
"It doesn't matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn't matter how smart you are. If it doesn't agree with experiment, it's wrong."
I love this quote, thanks for providing it, Rafi. I presume since you posted it, you also believe that it is valid?
Posts: 4178 | Registered: Dec 2006  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Rafi
Member
Member # 6930

 - posted      Profile for Rafi   Email Rafi       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by DonaldD:
Since we're still waiting for the upcoming ice age, here's a brief update on the past couple of years of monthly global temperature anomalies, courtesy of GISS LOTI:
  • The 10 warmest 12-month averaged periods in the instrumental record have all ended this year - that is, every 12-month period ending this year was warmer than any other 12-month period in the instrumental record.
  • The last 12 36-month periods have all been warmer than every other 36-month period in the instrumental record.
  • The last 24 60-month periods have all been warmer than every other 60-month period in the instrumental record.

GISS. You know they're adjusting historical data downward in order to make those claims right? With over 18 years of no warming, the only way you can make this true is to fake the past.
Posts: 793 | Registered: Jul 2014  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
  This topic comprises 7 pages: 1  2  3  4  5  6  7   

Quick Reply
Message:

HTML is not enabled.
UBB Code™ is enabled.
UBB Code™ Images not permitted.
Instant Graemlins
   


Post New Topic  Post A Reply Close Topic   Feature Topic   Move Topic   Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
 - Printer-friendly view of this topic
Hop To:


Contact Us | Ornery.org Front Page

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classic™ 6.7.1