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» The Ornery American Forum » General Comments » Glodal Recession/Depression on the way?

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Author Topic: Glodal Recession/Depression on the way?
Jon Camp
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http://www.observer.co.uk/economy/story/0,1598,805683,00.html

The parallels to the late 1920's/early 30's are interesting, I thought.


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RedVW on a Laptop
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Its amazing what history can teach us. It is also amazing how people so regularly ignore history and hope for a completely unrealistic turn of events. History repeats itself not because it is written in stone, but because people commit the same failings in simular circumstances.
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Jon Camp
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Another column about this.

I thought this part was especially interesting, as it throws a new wrench into the works that didn't exist in the 20's and 30's:

quote:
No longer having their own currency, the Germans cannot manage their economy through the Bundesbank, its role having been taken by the European Central Bank.

In crisis, central banks, especially untested ones, fail more often than they succeed. If Germans experience a liquidity crisis and fear for their postwar economic stability, there will be a popular demand to reinstate the German Mark and the power of the Bundesbank.

The Euro would then be history, leaving uncertain the fate and value of assets and contracts denominated in Euros. The global economy could unravel as easily as domestic economies unraveled in the 1930s.


In spite of this, we hear that the US economy is starting to "come around," although several economists I've read are saying growth is slow enough that it may as well still be a recession.

Even so, it makes me wonder: Would it be possible for the US economy to improve while the entire rest of the world collapsed? Or are we too interconnected for that, meaning that overall (with regional exceptions) we all rise or sink together?


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