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Author Topic: Misery Index
Lobo
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I was looking at the misery index over the past 30 years and found something interesting. If you look at it in relation to who is in power (senate, house, president), in general, the misery index is the lowest when two of the three or all three are controlled by republicans and highest when two of the three or all three are controlled by democrats. From this perspective, it is clear that absolute or majority control by democrats is not a good thing...

all rep = 8.2
2rep 1dem = 8.6
all dem = 9.6
2dem 1rep = 11.3


senate house president time ave
Rep Rep Dem 1997-01 - 1998-12 6.67
Rep Rep Dem 1999-01 - 2000-12 6.87
Dem Rep Rep 2001-01 - 2002-12 7.47
Rep Rep Rep 2005-01 - 2006-12 8.16
Rep Rep Rep 2003-01 - 2004-12 8.24
Rep Rep Dem 1995-01 - 1996-12 8.37
Dem Dem Rep 2007-01 - 2008-12 8.56
Dem Dem Dem 1993-01 - 1994-12 9.29
Dem Dem Rep 1987-01 - 1988-12 9.7
Rep Dem Rep 1985-01 - 1986-12 9.82
Dem Dem Dem 2009-01 - 2010-06 9.88
Dem Dem Rep 1989-01 - 1990-12 10.55
Dem Dem Rep 1991-01 - 1992-12 10.81
Rep Dem Rep 1983-01 - 1984-12 12.31
Dem Dem Rep 1981-01 - 1982-12 16.92

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Dave at Work
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Care to explain, or provide a link to something that explains what the "misery index" is?
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DonaldD
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Anther spin would be that 'the people' trust the Dems to fix things when they are bad and buy into the Reps' Kool-aid when things are good. (no, I don't believe this either, but it's a fun game to play)
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Wayward Son
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Here's a link to the Wikipedia page on the Misery Index.

Unless this is the one Lobo's thinking of. [Smile]

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Dave at Work
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Thanks Wayward Son. I'll read the link. After a brief skim I see that it is some sort of economic index. Maybe I'll check out the band on that other link as well.
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DonaldD
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Ooh here's a cool break down by President:
Pres/Party/Change in misery
Harry Truman/D/-10.28
Dwight D. Eisenhower/R/4.68
John F. Kennedy/D/-1.49
Lyndon B. Johnson/D/1.1
Richard Nixon/R/9.21
Gerald Ford/R/-3.7
Jimmy Carter/D/7
Ronald Reagan/R/-10.27
George H. W. Bush/R/0.23
Bill Clinton/D/-3.27
George W. Bush/R/-0.64
Barack Obama/D/4.51

Totalling by party affiliation, we see that the misery index dropped by 2.43 over the span of Democratic Party presidents, but dropped by only 0.49 during the tenure of Republican Party presidents. Annualized by time in office, it comes out to -0.097 per year for Dem presidents, and only -0.014 per year for Republican presidents.

That means that on average, the misery index drops by 7 times as much for every year a Democratic president is in office as compared to every year when a Republican president is in office.

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Wayward Son
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I wonder how well it correlates to the increase and decrease of the deficit?
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Lobo
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or
Pres/Party/average misery
Harry Truman/D/7.88
Dwight D. Eisenhower/R/6.26
John F. Kennedy/D/7.14
Lyndon B. Johnson/D/6.77
Richard Nixon/R/10.57
Gerald Ford/R/14.93
Jimmy Carter/D/20.27
Ronald Reagan/R/11.19
George H. W. Bush/R/9.68
Bill Clinton/D/8.8
George W. Bush/R/8.1
Barack Obama/D/9.88

Totalling by party affiliation, we see that the misery index averaged 9.93 over the span of Democratic Party presidents, but averaged by only 9.41 during the tenure of Republican Party presidents.

The main finding though, in my opinion, is that things work better when the democrats are NOT in control of congress - the party affiliation of the president is less important.

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TommySama
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Loco is right!
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Lobo
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They aren't THAT happy. The president only has his dog to keep him company for his birthday...
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seekingprometheus
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quote:
The main finding though, in my opinion, is that things work better when the democrats are NOT in control of congress
"The main finding..." [LOL]

Too funny. The "main finding" I see is how easy it is to construe data to in a way that reinforces a prepossessed bias. [Wink]

I love how you break it down though:

Lobo: "Here are some numbers. If you look at them this way it shows x."

Others: "Yeah, but we can look at them these other ways to show a, b, c, d, etc."

Lobo: "Yeah, but what I think is important is that we see x."

[LOL]

TS:

[LOL]

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Lobo
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seekingprometheus,

I think you need to re-read the rules of this forum.
"On this website, we welcome serious discussion about events, ideas, leaders, candidates, parties, principles, governments, religions, philosophies, and programs.

If you post something and someone disagrees with your idea, their disagreement does not erase your original statement. There is no need to answer except to clarify or offer new material.

Personal attacks, mockery, or speculation about the motives of people posting here are not allowed, and such posts will be removed without notification. Repeated offenders will be banned from the site.

Personal courtesy is the fundamental condition of free discussion, and free discussion is the fundamental condition of democratic government.
"

Take your hate elsewhere.

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Lobo
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"Take your hate elsewhere"

oops, was I speculating...?

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seekingprometheus
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No hate, Lobo.

I was sharing my amusement. I certainly wasn't speculating on whether your motive was to provide amusement.

And rules may be rules, but the reality is, we do mock silly here.

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