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Author Topic: Chaos in the Middle East
flydye
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Well, let's run the list, shall we?

Firs Lebanon had a revolution of sorts.

A couple years later, Iran had theirs.

Now, suddenly, Tunisa, Egypt, Baharain, and now Lybia.

Damn! Lots of change and probably not all good. That presupposes that the prior status quo was particularly wonderful, however. I'm sure that there was quite a bit of kite flying in all these places.

It's like...there was some proximate cause. Some triggering event which suddenly made the people under these dictatorships see that maybe there was another way to do things.

But <sigh> I'm afraid we will never know what might have symbolically occured which might have lead these places to attempt to grab hold of their own destinies. I wish we might have.

Nope. These things JUST HAPPEN.

I mean if someone had theorized that this might occur if someone had done something, I'm sure critics would argue that it was damned unlikely. Of course, now selection bias will have these critics scrambling to say 'Oh no...I ALWAYS thought we could destabilize the area...I just didn't want dictators and despots with rape rooms to be taken out of power...oh...wait...'

Enjoy history in the making

[ February 21, 2011, 11:14 AM: Message edited by: flydye ]

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Aris Katsaris
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You're such a moron. A moron beyond the power of words to describe it. Your so-called domino effect NEVER MATERIALIZED, you horrible moron. IT NEVER HAPPENED, and you can't possibly not know it! I can't accept idiots as big as *that* can speak human language, so you must be simply pretending at such idiocy.

The people in Lebanon neither supported nor referenced the invasion of Iraq, you moron. The Lebanon uprising was triggered by the murder of Hariri, you moron.

The people in Iran neither supported nor referenced the Iraq invasion, you moron. The Iran uprising was triggered by the theft of the elections by Ahmedinejad, you moron.

The people in Tunisia and Egypt didn't mention or reference the situation of Iraq, either, you moron. THE SITUATION IN IRAQ ISN'T WHAT SANE PEOPLE LOOK FORWARD TO!!! Iraq's a cesspool where dozens or of people get murdered every single week.

Nobody, NOBODY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD, wants their nation to be like Iraq. To even mention "Iraq" to people in the Middle-east would help convince them NOT to overthrow their tyrants.

You moron, you moron, you utterly retarded moron.

The people of Egypt referenced Tunisia, and the people of Libya and Bahrain and Yemen (and again Iran) are now referencing Egypt and Tunisia.

*That's* the domino effect, when other people pick up the example of other revolutions, and revolt too.

*That's* the democratic domino, you moron, which your Iraq invasion not only didn't help along, but it probably *delayed*. No invasion has EVER produced a domino effect, and yours provably didnt't produce it either. Only revolutions produce it.

Ofcourse if you're gonna attribute all the revolutions in the next century to America's invasion of Iraq, then you might just as well attribute them to China's invasion of Tibet half a century ago.

quote:
Some triggering event which suddenly made the people under these dictatorships see that maybe there was another way to do things.
Yes, it was the burning of Mohamed Bouazizi, you horrible, evil moron.

It's called the domino effect, in which Tunisia was the first successful revolution in the series, you ****ing evil moron.

But for moron evil Americans, world history began with Colombus, and Middle-east history began and culminated in their invasion of Iraq.

Bouazizi's self-immolation was inspired by your invasion of Iraq, you claim?

YOU EVIL EVIL MORON.

[ February 21, 2011, 11:39 AM: Message edited by: Aris Katsaris ]

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Aris Katsaris
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Do you know how you can tell a domino? Because the people in the next revolution, reference the *previous* revolution as something praiseworthy.

People in Egypt referenced Tunisia, not Iraq.
Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, Iran now reference the example of Egypt and Tunisia. Unsurprisingly, AGAIN not Iraq.

Nobody EVER references the situation in Iraq as something praiseworthy to be inspired by except moron Americans.

But I guess you'll claim that Arabs got *unknowingly* and *silently* nspired by Iraq, though they never *ever* praise what happened in Iraq, nor ever use it as example.

You morons. You evil morons.

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Aris Katsaris
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You'll probably wish to delete Mohamed Bouazizi from existence, because of course nobody can be allowed to be heroic, unless directly inspired by America.

You evil evil morons.

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edgmatt
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Aris you are out of line.

This kind of "debate" is tolerated on Ornery? Where's the mod?

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Aris Katsaris
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Delete my account, if you wish, I no longer care.

History is in the making, in Arab making, and let evil morons pat themselves on the back as much as they want, they're ultimately not important.

Unless these evil morons start bombing even more nations, torturing even more innocents, murdering a few hundred thousands more people, all justified because of the shining example of their "success" in Iraq, ofcourse.

Turn white into black, and label all your failures "successes", then you can butcher more people and be at peace with your conscience, evil morons.

[ February 21, 2011, 12:05 PM: Message edited by: Aris Katsaris ]

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edgmatt
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If you no longer care, then don't post this nonsense. Everyone else here wants a civil debate, since you clearly do not, don't waste the time of everyone else.
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Aris Katsaris
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Nonsense? Nonsense? What nonsense is this, that I call flydye an evil moron? That may be "uncivil", but it's certainly not nonsense.

What's nonsense is flydye's claim that what is occurring now not only is occurring because of America invading Iraq but actually *justifies* such invasion.

When the world eventually turns against your own villainy in the end, after it has overthrown all the other weaker villains first, you'll start wishing *more* people had warned you about how EVIL and STUPID you look like to the whole rest of the world when you say such things.

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Aris Katsaris
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Delete my account and I'll delete my bookmark, as I should have already done.

Time is too precious for me to waste on forums populated by evil morons who will retain their evil moron ways and use any and every conceivable justification in order to justify their butchery -- when Arab revolt should have conclusively *DISPROVEN* the need for an invasion, they're using it to justify it instead.

So, I'm done and goodbye.

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Pyrtolin
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quote:
Originally posted by Aris Katsaris:
Nonsense? Nonsense? What nonsense is this, that I call flydye an evil moron? That may be "uncivil", but it's certainly not nonsense.

What's nonsense is flydye's claim that what is occurring now not only is occurring because of America invading Iraq but actually *justifies* such invasion.

When the world eventually turns against your own villainy in the end, after it has overthrown all the other weaker villains first, you'll start wishing *more* people had warned you about how EVIL and STUPID you look like to the whole rest of the world when you say such things.

Aris, I think you were spot on with your overall points above, but you can clearly see that, however you feel it to be true, using a phrase as loaded with moral and value judgement as "evil moron" has only served to open a way for the conversation to be derailed.

I really do appreciate the perspective you bring to the conversations here, and understand the anger you feel, but without better control, you make it to easy of others to bait you into appearing weak.

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Aris Katsaris
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Here's the "civil" version, and let that be my last post here:

The people in Lebanon neither supported nor referenced the invasion of Iraq. The Lebanon uprising was triggered by the murder of Hariri.

The people in Iran neither supported nor referenced the Iraq invasion. The Iran uprising was triggered by the theft of the elections by Ahmedinejad.

The people in Tunisia and Egypt didn't mention or reference the situation of Iraq, either. The situation in Iraq isn't what sane people look forward to. Iraq's a cesspool where dozens or of people get murdered every single week.

Nobody, nobody anywhere in the world, wants their nation to be like Iraq. To even mention "Iraq" to people in the Middle-east would help convince them NOT to overthrow their tyrants.

The people of Egypt referenced Tunisia, and the people of Libya and Bahrain and Yemen (and again Iran) are now referencing Egypt and Tunisia.

That's the domino effect, when other people pick up the example of other revolutions, and revolt too.

That's the democratic domino, which the Iraq invasion not only didn't help along, but it probably *delayed*. No invasion has EVER produced a domino effect, and that one didnt't produce it either. Only revolutions produce it.

Ofcourse if you're gonna attribute all the revolutions in the next century to America's invasion of Iraq, then you might just as well attribute them to China's invasion of Tibet half a century ago.

quote:
Some triggering event which suddenly made the people under these dictatorships see that maybe there was another way to do things.
Yes, it was the burning of Mohamed Bouazizi.

It's called the domino effect, in which Tunisia was the first successful revolution in the series.

Bouazizi's self-immolation was inspired by your invasion of Iraq, you claim? Citation needed.

And now, I'm done.

[ February 21, 2011, 12:54 PM: Message edited by: Aris Katsaris ]

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TommySama
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Sic transit gloria ornery
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G2
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Liberals exposed.

[ February 21, 2011, 01:08 PM: Message edited by: G2 ]

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Hannibal
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I dont understand whats going on here.
Were some of the posts deleted? the word iraq does not even apear in flydye's post

Why Aris is went berserk like this?

Seriously Aris, you are somewhat extatic, calm down a little. at the end, nothing has yet happned in the Arab world.

Ofcourse there is a domino effect in the arab world, but we see that each arab country is different than the other, and in each the effect materializes in a different manner.

Lybia is really rioting. a couple of jet fighters deserted to Malta today after they were ordered to bomb the city of Bengazi, and other pilots did not desert [Smile]

Aris, why are you so emotional?

I never got that emotional in ornery

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Pyrtolin
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quote:
Were some of the posts deleted? the word iraq does not even apear in flydye's post
Hannibal, Aris is referring to this, from the original post:

quote:
t's like...there was some proximate cause. Some triggering event which suddenly made the people under these dictatorships see that maybe there was another way to do things.

But <sigh> I'm afraid we will never know what might have symbolically occured which might have lead these places to attempt to grab hold of their own destinies. I wish we might have.

The what this is phrased strongly indicates a that it should be read as exceptionally sarcastic; he is not so subtly hinting that there is, in fact, a triggering event that we should point to. That is so say, it is likely that he is effectively asserting that the US invasion of Iraq should be looked to as an event that showed people that there was another way to run their country.
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RickyB
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Aris I'm afraid you were out of line. One moron can slip, but that many? Seriously? I was actually waiting for this meme, after the initial "Arabs gone wild" hysteria had a chance to abate.
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Hannibal
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I honestly and seriously think that there is no correlation between the U.S invasion to Iraq and the situation in the Arab world now.

In fact, I would assume that the chaos and blood in Iraq will only deter other arab countries from starting anything.

I think that the simple truth is that technology brought down the dictatorships of the arab world.

Young arab people, see right in front of them how the world is beyond the borders of their countries. while they are stuck in the muck and grime, and hunted by thought police and corruption.
Not only that, Facebook, Forums such as this one, MMOs such as Second Life, all these provide mediums of communication that are much harder to control.
The "old arab regimes" were not fast enough to coup with these changes, the pressure and anger within the young people grew and grew untill it exploded in some incident where a kid in Tunisia burned himself.

Following what happned in Tunisia and Egypt, other arab rullers adaptad to the new means of technology, they are much faster on the "internet switch". Another "lesson" that was learned by arab rulers is that they should be extremely brutal in the way the handle the demonstrations.

Lybia is gone, the airforce is bombing its own people, the government hired merceneries to slaughter the population. Even if (and thats a big if) the regime will manage to control this rioting, not even the hypocritic european countries will deal with Lybia anymore.

If the lybian army will continue to slaughter its own people, maybe it will be a good time for some foreign country to intervene and take it out

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Aris Katsaris
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quote:
One moron can slip, but that many?
It didn't slip, in fact I had to go back and add some extra "moron", because I felt I wasn't communicating adequately how big an idiot I consider him.

[ February 21, 2011, 03:12 PM: Message edited by: Aris Katsaris ]

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Wayward Son
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At least you didn't call him a sheeple. [Wink] [Smile]

It's best to cool off a bit before posting, though. I usually regret it when I don't.

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LetterRip
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flydye,

do you honestly and sincerly believe that Iraq had anything at all to do with these revolutions and unrest?

There seems absolutely no logical reason to believe that. As others have pointed out, fear of the resulting chaos seems more likely to increase the willingness to endure tyrany and hence repress tendency towards revolution.

As someone else stated, this seems to be pretty much attributable to a few issues that have nothing to do with Iraq

1) the power of the interwebs - facebook and twitter seem to be allowing memes to spread like wildfire, and for coordination that was previously extremely difficult.

2) widespread unhappiness due to large scale unemployment

3) a few proximate cause trigger events

If you have some sort of reason for belief that Iraq has anything to do with this unrest, I'd be interested in your theory. However on its face it appears to be some sort of absurd wishful thinking.

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TomDavidson
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There is absolutely no power on Earth stronger than the Internet.
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starLisa
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quote:
Originally posted by Aris Katsaris:
quote:
One moron can slip, but that many?
It didn't slip, in fact I had to go back and add some extra "moron", because I felt I wasn't communicating adequately how big an idiot I consider him.
I thought you were leaving.
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Jordan
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Aris… It's a real shame. You're one of the clearest, brightest thinkers I know of, but you have little sufferance for those you consider foolish.

You're right, you certainly can do far better things with that splendid mind than wasting time on forums; but in general, losing composure seems far more likely to burn bridges than to build them. Perhaps you do not consider this important; I do, and wish that you did too.

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G2
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quote:
Originally posted by starLisa:
quote:
Originally posted by Aris Katsaris:
quote:
One moron can slip, but that many?
It didn't slip, in fact I had to go back and add some extra "moron", because I felt I wasn't communicating adequately how big an idiot I consider him.
I thought you were leaving.
He's not. He's just trying to get as many of those "You're one of the clearest, brightest thinkers I know of ..." posts as he can. Once enough people around here suck up to him and stroke his ego sufficiently, he'll reluctantly relent against his threat to abandon us to a fate worse than death where we are deprived of his brilliance. This 'taking my ball and going home' is a pretty big cry for help in liberalism.

Aris ain't going anywhere. [Wink]

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cherrypoptart
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I don't see how it's absolutely batnip crazy to think that the liberation of Iraq from a tyrant and the continuing fight for a small amount of womens' rights in Afghanistan played some role of debatable size in changing the psyche of many young people in the Muslim world so that they could see that their fate is not set. They can have a say in it.

I understand there can be disagreement over how much or little effect the overthrow of Saddam had compared to the availability of the internet, but surely seeing that their rulers are not omnipotent and indeed don't even have the blessing of Allah as evidenced by Saddam's failure could have played some role in events.

I'm inclined to be pessimistic about the Middle East and wonder if these uprisings won't result in the liberal Muslims and Arabs simply being slaughtered and a harsher Islamic tyranny taking the place of what was already bad enough. If there is a liberal gene then the Muslim societies seem to have a way of removing it from the human gene pool through slaughter. I hope that the populations may be past the tipping point now where there are enough of them to make it, whatever it ends up being, happen. That's where the internet comes in and helps them communicate in solidarity, knowing now that not only are they not alone, but they are joined in thought and action by millions. The internet is the tool, and also some of the inspiration. But the notion that the fall of Saddam may have also had some mind altering effect on the psyche of the Middle East isn't insanity. It's a possibility.

It may just hurt too much for the Bush deranged because this is what he said he hoped might happen. And his hopeful prediction has come to pass. I can see how that would take a piece out his haters' pride.

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Jordan
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I'm being honest, G2. His participation here isn't really important to me; it just makes me sad to see that someone I consider to be very clever is so unrestrained about calling those he disagrees with "evil". Don't you think so too?
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manji
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quote:
Originally posted by G2:
This 'taking my ball and going home' is a pretty big cry for help in liberalism.

Liberalism? That's Human Nature 101.
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LetterRip
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cherry,

quote:
I don't see how it's absolutely batnip crazy to think that the liberation of Iraq from a tyrant and the continuing fight for a small amount of womens' rights in Afghanistan played some role of debatable size in changing the psyche of many young people in the Muslim world so that they could see that their fate is not set. They can have a say in it.
There isn't any reason to believe it had any significant impact. Assuming causation without reason is not a rational thing to do.

quote:
I understand there can be disagreement over how much or little effect the overthrow of Saddam had compared to the availability of the internet, but surely seeing that their rulers are not omnipotent and indeed don't even have the blessing of Allah as evidenced by Saddam's failure could have played some role in events.
Saddam was never believed to have 'the blessing of Allah' most Muslims probably believed the opposite. Saddam was overthrown via the most powerful military in the world.

quote:
I'm inclined to be pessimistic about the Middle East and wonder if these uprisings won't result in the liberal Muslims and Arabs simply being slaughtered and a harsher Islamic tyranny taking the place of what was already bad enough. If there is a liberal gene then the Muslim societies seem to have a way of removing it from the human gene pool through slaughter.
Christians had similar tendencies of slaughtering those with 'liberal' tendencies.

quote:
But the notion that the fall of Saddam may have also had some mind altering effect on the psyche of the Middle East isn't insanity. It's a possibility.
It really isn't a very likely possibility. It is as 'rational' to think that global warming is the cause, or that developments between Israel and Palestinians - which is to say it isn't a rational position at all. Unless there is a good reason to believe it to be so, the most rational position is that it isn't so.
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cherrypoptart
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Me with my crazy analogies again...

Yes, no one wanted their country invaded like Iraq. However, with the crazy way some of their leaders were acting, it was a growing possibility. All it would take is a significant terror attack on the U.S. that could be traced to some of the people in a neighboring country, and they might get "liberated" at a cost of hundreds of thousands of their civilians' lives and their entire infrastructure.

So, maybe it's better to do it themselves than to run the risk of having us do it for them.

So the analogy: It used to be that when your plane was taken over by terrorists you waited and negotiated. Now, your best bet for survival is to fight back immediately before your plane gets shot down and you die anyway, not only with no chance of fighting but as a coward who refused to stand up for yourself.

Yes I believe it is primarily about freedom and I would even give as much credit to Obama's election and his visits to the Middle East as I would to Bush's invasion of Iraq for inspiring this hope for change, but there are many pieces to this puzzle and the only way it all fits together to make a complete picture is to see them all together.

I agree with Aris that pretty much nobody over there is or will acknowledge that what happened to Iraq has anything to do with this. Why would that be surprising? Look at Egypt. The place runs with denial. Yeah, that was bad. I'm shaking my head at myself. But the fact is often times the last person people will admit the truth to about their personal motivations are themselves. It can just be too painful. Better to tell themselves that they want change because of hope, not fear. It makes them feel more manly.

I can also appreciate the possibility that those who favored taking out Saddam before he became a bigger threat are looking for more justification. Even if what we said we hoped for is now happening, maybe we don't deserve to gloat so much about it? Whether or not it's true that this is a proximate cause, it's bad etiquette and can send some people over the edge with unrestrained, uncontrollable, Hulk-like nerd-rage which will be released with a terrifying vengeance through their computers and out across the internets to burn the unfortunate victim very painfully. I hope Flydye is going to be okay...

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LetterRip
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cherry,

quote:
So, maybe it's better to do it themselves than to run the risk of having us do it for them.
Try and think of the rationality of someone believing this and it being a widespread enough belief in a country that it would result in revolution. If this belief played a role there are enough Iranians that at least some would express this as a reason in public forums, etc.
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cherrypoptart
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There is never going to be any proof one way or the other. This is classic Rashomon. Everybody thinks their own motives were pure, they were the hero, and they saved the day. Asking for proof in a case like this when we are looking at human motivation is asking for too much, for the impossible, especially when humans have too much motivation to hide their real motivations, even from themselves. And even when they do want to be honest, they are too often too ignorant about what motivates them to pull off an honest assessment anyway.

If the fall of Iraq really were an inspiration for the Iranian protesters, they would never admit it, even to themselves. And especially not to us.

The Rashomon reference is especially apt in this case because of how we think we saved the people from brutal, sadistic rapists whereas Saddam and his sons might say that they loved their people and we were the ones who attacked, brutalized, and raped them. Classic.

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TomDavidson
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quote:
we think we saved the people from brutal, sadistic rapists
Please be careful with your "we," there.
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cherrypoptart
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Ooops.

I guess inclusiveness is not always appreciated.

[Smile]

It applies only to the people who want it to apply to them. It's inclusive, but on a voluntary basis.

For those who think that taking the father to task for being brutal was worse for the women and children than leaving them in an abusive relationship, it's a free country and people can think what they will.

The people in the Middle East now are like a bunch of women who have seen one abusive man get taken down by an even bigger bully who wasn't going to stand around an take anymore of his nonsense, and they've decided they don't want to live in their abusive relationships anymore either, and have been inspired to do something about it. Good for them!

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LetterRip
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cherry,

quote:
For those who think that taking the father to task for being brutal was worse for the women and children than leaving them in an abusive relationship, it's a free country and people can think what they will.
A more apt analogy would be that there is an abusive husband, a wife, and four children. We get rid of the husband but in the process one of the children is killed. The women cannot support the children without a husband and most of the available men in her city are also abusive though some are not as bad, so she will be in a fairly bad marriage regardless of whom she marries. The new husband will have different kinds of abuse - the previous husband beat her, the new one won't beat her but might molest the children.

The problem with your analogy is that you framed things as unambigously bad, and the new situation as unambiguously good. The reality is that while the situation under Saddam was bad (political tortures and other horrid things - spouse abuse in our analogy), some of the process to depose him was quite bad (drastically more deaths occurred from our invasion than would ever have occurred under Saddam), and the new political situation is worse for some (extremism, bombings, women have gone from a society that was largely secular and treated them as equals to a society that now has much greater restrictions on women and treats them more as objects - child abuse in my analogy). So instead of your 'bad to good' analogy, the situation is much more ambiguous.

[ February 21, 2011, 09:27 PM: Message edited by: LetterRip ]

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Viking_Longship
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Last week Egypt was about to fall to Muslim brotherhood and the whole thing was a betrayal of a loyal ally and totally the fault of Obama's poor leadership.

This week it's a new breath of freedom from the removal of Saddam Hussein (after 8 years).

I don't know if this is evil but trying to call this a good or a bad thing before it's done playing out really is stupid.

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cherrypoptart
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To be fair Egypt falling to the Muslim Brotherhood is one thing, but what's happening in Libya is altogether something else. Perhaps I'm not imaginative enough, but I don't see how any change toward democracy in Libya is going to make things worse there, unless they just completely fail and it's a bloodbath, in which case that's not going to really count as change. Also if Egypt gets taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood, that is classifiable as failure. If the Egyptians keep them out altogether or only give them a small chair at a big table and manage to make them sit in it, that will be very good and very lucky.
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Viking_Longship
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Change towards democracy in Libya could result in Islamists coming to power, same as in Egypt. I had the pleasure of watching Al Jazeera in English this morning while discussing the situation with my Saudi students. Right now the only thing they seem agreed on is that the instability is likely to spread and they'd rather it stay out of their country.

[ February 21, 2011, 11:18 PM: Message edited by: Viking_Longship ]

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Pyrtolin
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quote:
Also if Egypt gets taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood, that is classifiable as failure. If the Egyptians keep them out altogether or only give them a small chair at a big table and manage to make them sit in it, that will be very good and very lucky.
Do you say this even in light of the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is not a militant fundamentalist group and that it has already clearly stated that it intends to take a back seat in the process and not push for any control over the process?

You're invoking a boogeyman of something that isn't a likely outcome no matter what happens.

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RickyB
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For what it's worth, all the Iraqi people I see on social networks are not saying what flydye is implying. They are saying "I feel like the American invasion robbed us of our shot at something like this."
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TheRallanator
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quote:
Originally posted by G2:
Liberals exposed.

Liberals exposed as what?

Unless you mean arab liberals exposed as totally balls-out guys and gals with way more courage than you or I when it comes to sticking up for democracy and freedom.

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