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Author Topic: Dark horses and white knights in the GOP
AI Wessex
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With Christie's decision not to change his mind and run, we are rounding the 3-quarter turn and beginning the home stretch with no dark horse in sight. Palin is the only one left who is well-known enough and was expected to run, but she sputtered and (apparently) dropped out back at the far turn. So, once again we have the question of which of the horses still in the race will be that white knight who will stand tall at the finish line and remove the stain from the office of the President that is Obama.

I'm looking for people to register their bets now for who will win, not who you want to win. I will come back to this thread just before the primary races start in January. Will it be:

Perry
Romney
Bachmann
Cain
Paul
Santorum
Huntsman
Gingrich

I say the least worst candidate, Romney, will win. Place and show go to Cain and Perry respectively.

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Wayward Son
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I agree that Romney is the likely winner. Although the strict conservatives may not love him, the party as a whole is probably not going to go much further right than him.

I predict Perry will take second, simply because of his name recognition and taking Texas. Third is tough, but I'll go with Bachmann, taking the Tea Party protest vote.

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JWatts
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Win - Romney
Place - Perry
Show - Cain (honestly I've got no good feeling on third, might well be Paul)

[ October 04, 2011, 04:51 PM: Message edited by: JWatts ]

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hobsen
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Perry probably.
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TCB
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My guess - first place to Perry, second place to Romney, third place to someone very, very distant.

As Perry beceomes comfortable on the national stage he'll make fewer gaffes and perform better in debates. The nuts and bolts of the delegate count will also work in his favor. Deeply red southern states that will probably go to Perry are over-represented at the convention. And several key states for Romney - Florida, Michigan, and New Hampshire - currently stand to lose half their delegates for moving their primaries up early.

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Viking_Longship
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If he doesn't fall victim to religious prejudice I think Romney to win, Perry to place, and Paul to go out in a blaze of glory.

Romney is the only one I can see beating Obama.

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Lyrhawn
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Still hard to see how this thing is going to shake out.

Cain is doing surprisingly well. Bachmann continues to fade into the background. For every one thing she does right, she does three things wrong.

Hard to believe the first votes will be cast in a little more than three months, but a lot could still change between now and then. You also need to consider that the national opinion polls matter less right now than the individual polls in the first states. Romney is a lock to win New Hampshire. He probably won't take Iowa. Nevada and South Carolina are anyone's guess. And then there's the fact that Florida has moved themselves up (though they will be penalized). Can Romney do well there, is will Cain's straw poll win be legitimized?

Bigger question: When people like Bachmann and Paul drop out, where do their votes go? If they people do terribly in the first two or three votes, they should drop out, it tends to happen. If all their votes go to Perry, I think he leaps ahead of Romney going into Super Tuesday. Possibly their votes also go to Cain. I really don't see anyone else in the race that is pulling a lot of votes for Romney, which means he doesn't have much room to move up, whereas someone like Perry, or Cain (who have been losing and gaining steam respectively), could still move around a lot.

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AI Wessex
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Bachmann and Perry are competing for the same votes. When he came along he basically vacuumed up most of the ones that had been veering in her direction. She is now irrelevant (thankfully!). Santorum was floating in her wake and now has to contend with both of them. He tries to be provocative but when he talks you have to pinch yourself to pay attention.

Paul still owns the non-denominational states rightists and Libertarians. I don't see them going to anybody else on their own volition, but since they tend to be members of the rational minority of the GOP they will eventually and grudgingly vote for whoever gets the nomination.

Cain is the populist candidate. I had forgotten about that segment on the right in the rush toward the Tea Party, but they are popping up again like spring flowers in his wake. The problem with populist candidates is that they essentially are panderers to their adherents superficial urges. His 999 plan is absolute garbage, but it's easy to sell and tastes like candy. Most important, the name is an easy to remember hook.

I'm disappointed that Huntsman got no traction, but he distantly reminds me of Adlai Stevenson who averred that having the votes of every thinking man in America would not be nearly enough.

That leaves Romney about whom not much is known and not much can be said except that he is the only GOP candidate who never takes his eye off the prize and knows how to run a marathon campaign. When the convention comes around next summer it will be discovered that he is wearing the same shirt he had on last month, hadn't ever washed it and only needed to touch up the creases with a warm iron.

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0rnery
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As of today, Cain's odds are 9/1. My money's on him. Couldn't care less about the rest...
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RickyB
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"Couldn't care less about the rest..."

Thank you for using that idiom properly.

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threads
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Romney should win the nomination so I'll just go ahead and predict that he will.

@0rnery: want to put some money down [Wink] ?

[ October 06, 2011, 12:55 PM: Message edited by: threads ]

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Pete at Home
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I think Huntsman may be the best candidate all around. I'd like to see Romney win, since he's the one that's most likely to focus the election and national debate on the FMA. But I think that Perry's most likely to win. No way in hell that a mormon's going to get that close to the highest office in the land. If he gets too close, they will assassinate him.
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Pete at Home
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Obama's staying in office unless the Democrats find someone else that everyone hates more than Obama, to blame for the next miserable 4 years.
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JWatts
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quote:
Originally posted by Pete at Home:
Obama's staying in office unless the Democrats find someone else that everyone hates more than Obama, to blame for the next miserable 4 years.

Care to bet on that? I have $1 US dollar that says Obama loses. [Wink]
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AI Wessex
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"If he gets too close, they will assassinate him."

That was the paranoid worry about Obama.

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Lyrhawn
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It's only paranoia if people aren't actually planning to kill him.

The Secret Service and FBI received a lot of threats.

I suspect Romney would get more threats than anyone else running except maybe Cain.

I think if one of the uber-conservatives like Perry gets elected, someone like Huntsman would be a good VP choice.

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AI Wessex
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All kinds of fraughtfulness. No way any of these candidates, including Cain, would get more death threats than Obama did. Supposedly gun sellers across the country have raised a bazillion extra bottles of Bud in his honor since he got the nomination.

I can't imagine Perry betraying his base by letting Huntsman get anywhere near the Oval Office. Remember all the worries that McCain might actually die and leave Palin in charge? He'd probably lose more votes if he did that than being Mormon would cost Romney. I think instead of a less Conservative running mate he would pick a northern Conservative like Santorum.

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drewmie
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I think it's hilarious that the Republicans are even bothering. What a waste of money. Obama cannot be stopped. He's black, and he's been a centrist with a bitterly partisan Congress.

Everyone who voted for Obama last time will vote for him this time. And very few of the independents who voted for McCain (who used to be center-right) will seriously consider any candidate from the even-farther-right GOP this time around.

In short, Obama has moved to the center and the GOP has moved to the right. Anybody who thinks Republicans have a chance needs to lay off the Kool-Aid.

P.S.- Huntsman is the only candidate who doesn't seem like an SNL parody of himself, which means he doesn't have a chance at the nomination in a party gone psycho.

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JWatts
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Drewie, care to bet on that? I'll bet $100 that Obama loses the presidential election of 2012.
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LoverOfJoy
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If Romney is the nominee, I predict turnout among democrats will be much lower than last election. If Perry is the nominee I predict more democrats voting (but it still might be a bit less than last election).

In either scenario I predict an ugly election that could go either way.

I, too, would have preferred Huntsman over the other nominees, but oh well. I honestly haven't had time to follow the race much so perhaps some of the other candidates are better than they have come across to me so far.

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PSRT
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quote:
Everyone who voted for Obama last time will vote for him this time.
What percentage of the people who voted for him last time does "Everyone," mean?
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Dave at Work
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quote:
Everyone who voted for Obama last time will vote for him this time.
I doubt it. Of course an absolute target like that will never come to pass. I know quite a few people who voted for Obama last time, who over the last year have said that they would not vote for Obama again. I'm sure that some of them will when faced with the other choice, but a number of them feel betrayed and want nothing to do with him or his policies. Will they vote for the GOP candidate? Maybe, but they may also decide to vote third party or abstain and of course some will certainly vote for him again.

Personally I will serve no wine before its time, meaning that I am going to wait and see how things develop before making any kind of decision about who I will vote for.

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scifibum
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I voted for Obama, but I'd vote for Huntsman in a heartbeat. He's not as liberal as I'd like, but he's pretty centrist and has shown signs of the rare skill of pragmatic, reasonable decision making. I'd hope that he would reign in the GOP (since I think they'll continue trying to block any and every thing any Democrat president wants until they can be talked into reasonableness by someone they don't hate).
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TheRallanator
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Personally I'm expecting a surprisingly strong finish from Huntsman thanks to the fact that absolutely nobody else seems to be trying to get the moderate vote. I don't expect him to win, but I expect him to be one of the stronger also-rans.

I mean look at the rest of the pack. Romney's holding his tongue and trying to play up his conservative credentials, Perry's decided that he's the anointed candidate of American Jesus, Bachmann is crazying it up to make sure she remains the Tea Party favourite, Ron Paul is... Ron Paul, Cain's decided his angle is hating muslims more than everyone else, Newt Gingrich's campaign has imploded spectacularly, and Rick Santorum is desperately trying to get attention by being the biggest homophobe in America. Everyone in the race who's getting any attention at all is either an ultra-conservative or too scared of the wrath of the tea party to rock the boat.

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Viking_Longship
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Because of the electoral college it's going to be decided by a few swing states. My home state is going go Republican. The only way I could see New Jersey (where I am living now) going Republican would be if Chris Christie had jumped in.

I don't see Florida and Ohio going to Perry if people think he's a racist, and I think that label is going to stick (unfair as that may be.)

I don't see Huntsman, Paul,or Johnson getting the nomination. Romney I can't see get the nomination but I could see him beat Obama. Perry I can see get the nomination but lose the general election.

It's still really early though. Clinton and Guliani were supposed to be the nominees at this point in 07.

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TheRallanator
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quote:
Originally posted by Viking_Longship:
Clinton and Guliani were supposed to be the nominees at this point in 07.

Yeah predictions this early tend to be a bit murky. Keyes hadn't yet degenerated into a joke candidate at this point in '99.
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threads
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quote:
Originally posted by Pete at Home:
I'd like to see Romney win, since he's the one that's most likely to focus the election and national debate on the FMA.

Resurrecting an old thread here; why do you want to see the FMA debated in this election? Economic policy and foreign policy should play much more significant roles in deciding who to vote for.
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RickyB
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I hope Romney retains the lead. Then I not only won't vote for Obummer, I won't care that much if he loses.
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Viking_Longship
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quote:
Originally posted by RickyB:
I hope Romney retains the lead. Then I not only won't vote for Obummer, I won't care that much if he loses.

Are you sure? Romeny's a real USA uber alles type.
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RickyB
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"Are you sure? Romeny's a real USA uber alles type."

You mean unlike Perry, who wants to invade Mexico because Americans won't stop buying drugs from there? Who is less so than him with an actual chance of winning? Cain? The man thinks he can discriminate against actual US citizens if they're Muslim. Goddess only knows what he'd do beyond the borders.

It's not that I like Romney or anything, he's just the least nauseating among the viable candidates.

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AI Wessex
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Cain has risen to the top, which in this nomination race seems like the chair in a dunking tank. His 999 plan is garbage (apparently the same as Simcity's default). He's sounding more and more populist but ever weirder the more words he speaks. I think he's going to fade pretty quickly and we'll be back to Romney (least worst, least unelectable) vs Perry (the right of the right's great white hope).
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Viking_Longship
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quote:
Originally posted by RickyB:
"Are you sure? Romeny's a real USA uber alles type."

You mean unlike Perry, who wants to invade Mexico because Americans won't stop buying drugs from there? Who is less so than him with an actual chance of winning? Cain? The man thinks he can discriminate against actual US citizens if they're Muslim. Goddess only knows what he'd do beyond the borders.

It's not that I like Romney or anything, he's just the least nauseating among the viable candidates.

I'm not endorsing Cain or Perry, just saying Romney may be less harmless than he appears.
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RickyB
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"I'm not endorsing Cain or Perry, just saying Romney may be less harmless than he appears."

I hear you, and like I said, I dislike the guy - he's phony even for a hack - but he's less religio-insane than Perry and less willfully ignorant than Cain. At least that's my impression, but what do I know? I, as we've seen, am a Gary Johnson man! [Big Grin]

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Pete at Home
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Just as to Nixon went to china, just as Reagan put the first woman on the supreme CT, if a Mormon ever becomes a majorwithdrawal party presidential candidate, it will be through the Democratic party.

The chance of a Mormon actually getting and keeping the top nomination through election without assassination are akin to Carrot-Top getting picked for the Supreme Court.

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Wayward Son
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I don't see hatred of Mormons being any worse than hatred of blacks in this country, and we've had over three years of a black President without incident. Although his nomination may have hurdles, I doubt he would face any greater threat of assassination than Obama.
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Pete at Home
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quote:
Originally posted by Wayward Son:
I don't see hatred of Mormons being any worse than hatred of blacks in this country

We've had two blacks on the Supreme Court, and a black president, and a Mormon has never been in either capacity, nor will be picked or elected to either capacity in our lifetimes.

But I agree that we're not the most "hated." The anti-mormon thing is not about hate. It's about fear. Fear of us, and also fear of what those who hate us will do if you support one of us. It's not so much the number or strength of our enemies so much as fewness of real friends who have the inclination and guts to stand up for us. If someone stood up in public and said the crap that's said about Mormons, about blacks instead, the speaker would be reviled. But last week was the first time I've ever seen any talking heads standing up for us. I'm grateful for that tiny handful of voices, but I don't deceive myself that it's going to catch on.

Some pissy little twerp will probably jump on and yell that I'm having a "persecution complex." That's crap. Telling someone that they can never be president isn't persecution. It's discrimination, and it's a bit depressing, but it ain't Krystalnacht or Haun's Mill. I'm not complaining about the number or intensity of our enemies, but the paucity of real friends. Loneliness is not the same thing as paranoia.

[ October 19, 2011, 12:42 AM: Message edited by: Pete at Home ]

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RickyB
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"If someone stood up in public and said the crap that's said about Mormons, about blacks instead, the speaker would be reviled."

Um, the worst thing I see said about Mormons in the public sphere is that they are not real Christians, and/or that they believe in some ludicrous and/or unacceptable things. Care to show me that I'm wrong before we continue?

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Pete at Home
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BS. We've been through this and I posted the New Republic article that basically described us as sleeper agents awaiting the call of some future prophet to start a murderous rampage. And the Slate article that said that our religion alone should disqualify us from holding office ... but the arguments the bigot laid out, if believed, would keep a mormon from holding any position of trust or judgment.

I remember the conversation with you. I pointed out that the Slate writer not only assumed
1. that all of "No Man Knows My History" was accurate (odd, since the author's other "historical" work on Thomas Jefferson was flatly rejected because of her questionable source-work, but her methods were considered adequate for the subject of Joseph Smith)
but also,
2. assumed that mormons were familiar with her obscure work.

At that point, you asked me if I was familiar with the accusations, such as the hat, etc., and I said that I'd learned of those accusations for the first time on "South Park." That no, mormons don't hear that version of events (based on one and only one claimed eyewitness account) unless they watch South Park, which most good mormons (unlike alcoholic washouts like me) don't watch.

Sound familiar?

I thought that the South Park episode on mormons was cute, because they didn't depict us as scary and dangerous. But the Slate and New Republic articles were vicious. If they'd said that stuff about Jews, you'd be all over it.

Speaking of which, Dude, you want to tell me how you cross the red sea going from Egypt on the way to Mount Sinai? What, you all climb a mountain, get instructions from God, and then forget where the mountain was? Shall we generalize from that and proclaim that no Jew should be allowed to be a Cartographer? Sure, that's funny for South Park, but the articles in the New Republic and Slate were intended to be serious, and were persuasive to a reader ignorant about Mormonism. Completely unjustified fearmongering.

[ October 19, 2011, 04:47 AM: Message edited by: Pete at Home ]

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TomDavidson
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quote:
Telling someone that they can never be president isn't persecution.
Try being an atheist some time. There are lots of perks that IMO make up for it (like being right all the time), but it's not a position you should hold if being persecuted gets you riled up.
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AI Wessex
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I watched last night's debate. From all accounts it was the weirdest of the 8 that have been held so far, and felt otherworldly in a way that Las Vegas itself does. They hosted it in an auditorium in the Venetian Room, a casino that boasts on the second floor a fully operational imitation of Venice's Grand Canal beneath a painted ceiling of blue skies spotted with clouds. It's brighter at midnight inside than it is outside at noon. The VR is right down the street from the Paris Las Vegas Hotel, which boasts an outsized replica of the Eiffel Tower. Forget about not being in Kansas, and I suspect the people watching at home had the same worried feeling about the candidates as the event wore on.

Inside the debate hall a rowdy crowd watched a conflict that more resembled a Las Vegas prize fight between visitors to the city competing for the biggest jackpot EVVVERR, you can win the WHOLE COUNTRY!!.

Except they all got knocked out early or late or disqualified themselves for chewing on each other's ears. The tale of the tape:

Romney lost on points but will live to fight another day. He even got in a few nasty punches, most in Perry's direction and always at the punchee's expense. Ya gotta hate him, but he sorta makes sense.

Perry kept trying to sneak around Romney's back and rabbit punch him, but Romney pirouetted out of reach every time. Perry knocked himself down at least 3 times and clearly was showing signs of a concussion. Did you say Texas or Taxes? I'm for 'em and 'agin em, yep, you know my record as the undefeated champ. After it was over Perry walked out of the room by himself into the casino. Somebody should tell him he's running out of chips and take him home.

Cain tried manfully to defend his Simcity financial strategy, but in the rope-a-dope gangbanging he suffered everybody else in the ring landed solid punches, and even groups that weren't there hit him a couple of times. He got beat to a bloody pulp and still somehow managed keep standing and smiling. The man doesn't know how to box, but he knows how to take a punch.

Paul keeps showing up for these fights wearing sweatpants and garden gloves. He doesn't know how to dress or fight, and insists that while he's standing there looking amused the other fighters are knocking themselves out. Nobody bothered to throw a punch at him and nobody even noticed when he was ruled a loser by TKO midway through the fight and sat quietly in his corner the rest of the way.

Of the others, Bachmann comes into every fight punch-drunk as somebody nobody wants to hit. She thinks a flummox is a kind of punch, which she hits herself with more than anybody else. The other candidates ignore her because they're afraid they could turn her screeching into actual tears. Dare I say in this PC arena that if they weren't going to allow her to fight she at least wanted desperately to be the ring vixen but come up a loser there, too, because moms across the country won't vote for one.

Santorum looks almost too young and skinny to fight legally, so he keeps waving his driver's license while he's slapping the others in hopes of annoying them into a stupor.

Gingrich actually had moments where he looked Presidential, but it was like watching a tawdry remake where Marlon Brando insists that he coulda been a contenda. He even challenged Obama to a 3 hour last-man-standing no referee fight. But he's smart enough that even he knows his fighting days are over, so he has moved on and invented a whole new career for himself as a fighter-referee, one who lands non-lethal punches and rules his opponents out of order in hopes of influencing the judges his way and winning a split decision. He wears his history in government like ringbling, but nobody really cares. I half expected him to go up to Bachmann afterward and ask if her pearls were real and where she got them.

Final result: Romney by a bloody nose, Cain or Perry staggering but still alive because you have to have somebody who is not Romney. Stay tuned for next week's edition of the Republican championship rematch, fight fans.

[ October 19, 2011, 09:14 AM: Message edited by: AI Wessex ]

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