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Author Topic: Santorum in 2016?
Wayward Son
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David Brin had an interesting essay today on Santorum and the primary election. The most intriguing idea was how candidates are chosen:

quote:
But in fact, I do not expect Rick [Santorum] to win the nomination, this time around. That is because Republicans always follow a very precise pattern in their nominations.

(1) if there is a recent or sitting Vice President available and running, they always choose him. (In fairness, the dems do that too, almost as consistently.)

(2) If there is no available veep, they then nominate the guy whose "turn it is." The fellow who came in second for the nomination last time. Reagan in 1980, Dole in '96, McCain in 2008, etc. Hence, following that rule, it will be Romney in 2012...

...only dig it... that means Santorum in 2016.

It sounds plausible to me. Anyone disagree?
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AI Wessex
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Let's just hope it isn't Gingrich in 2016. But I don't think that correlation will necessarily hold in the future. Either Gingrich or Santorum are trying as hard as possible to represent extreme right wing platforms hammered day and night by FOX, a few billionaires protecting their interests and the most Conservative wings of the Christian religion. If the GOP gets thoroughly whacked in the upcoming election, I think there will be a lot of soul searching and a glide back to the moderate -- at least by Republican standards -- pole of the party.

Not to mention that if the economy continues to improve for the next 9 months Obama and his policies will be thoroughly vindicated. No one would be able to challenge him as this round of candidates has done so far that he is a failure.

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Viking_Longship
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If the Republicans lose this year all bets are off about 2016.

[ February 26, 2012, 04:38 PM: Message edited by: Viking_Longship ]

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TheRallanator
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The only way Rick Santorum stands a chance of winning the 2016 primaries is if the GOP fields an even worse pack of incompetent buffoons than they did this year. Although considering how effective the evangelicals and teabaggers are at hijacking the party and sending it careening off into the depths of the lunatic right, that could just happen. He's an uncharismatic, unpopular man with positions that will alienate everyone except the religious right, and the only reason he's performing so well this year is because all of the other "Anyone But Romney" candidates except Gingrich turned out to be even bigger buffoons than Santorum.
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philnotfil
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I really think that the only reason Santorum is still in this race is that everyone else dropped out while he was at the front of the pack. If anyone else had stayed in for another state, they would have had another turn at the front and Santorum would have dropped out.
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LoverOfJoy
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Why is it Anyone But Romney instead of Anyone but Gingrich or Anyone but Santorum or Anyone but Perry? Really, I can see a lot to not like about Romney but how can he be the worst alternative considering the field this time? He's not the most moderate (Huntsman) or the most opportunistic (Gingrich?) or the biggest "Washington Insider" (Gingrich).

He's the richest...but that can't be his big negative, can it? Most Mormon?

Pretty much every flaw he has (and he has quite a few) it seems that there's another candidate that has that flaw worse. *shrug*

I suspect part of it is simply that he has the most "establishment" support. When republicans are so sick of the Republican Party it doesn't sound very good for the odds of whoever wins the nomination.

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AI Wessex
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I think he's the most dogged AND the richest. He's having problems nailing it down because he also seems to be the most craven in a time when GOP moderates don't seem to exist and only the most pure will do. Vacillation kills in todays GOP.
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TCB
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LOJ said:
quote:
I suspect part of it is simply that he has the most "establishment" support. When republicans are so sick of the Republican Party it doesn't sound very good for the odds of whoever wins the nomination.
I think it's partly this, but mostly that Republicans sense that Romney is a pragmatist, not a movement conservative or culture warrior. His use of Tea Party language feels artificial, and his professed outrage toward Obama doesn't seem to have real anger behind it.
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LoverOfJoy
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That's a good point...perhaps he comes across as the most artificial...although I think a few others may be in the running.

Personally, I think the same things could be said about Gingrich. He often seems (to me, anyway) like he's saying what he knows others want said. His Tea Party rhetoric seems at least as phony. Personally, Ron Paul is the only one that truly seems to sincerely hold Tea Party values (although with a twist and a bit further than many want to take it).

[ February 26, 2012, 09:08 PM: Message edited by: LoverOfJoy ]

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kmbboots
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Gov. Romney is simply not rabid enough for the Republican base.

[ February 26, 2012, 09:27 PM: Message edited by: kmbboots ]

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Pete at Home
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It's only because Romney's winning, and losers will sometimes act like losers.
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