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Mynnion
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I am actually surprised not to have seen anything on the topic of the Wisconsin recall election this Tuesday. Since my oldest daughter lives in Madison I have heard a fair bit about it both during the marches last year and over the last couple of months.

A couple of republican state senators lost their seats because of the restrictions on collective bargaining for state employees that was passed last year. A recall cannot be called until the governor is in office for at least one year.

It will be interesting to see how this recall impacts the messages of Obama and Romney.

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TomDavidson
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I certainly hope he goes. As a resident of Wisconsin, it's impossible to describe how furious the state -- on both sides of the aisle -- is over this; Wisconsin has become ground zero for the Republicans' divide-and-conquer strategy, and they've certainly managed the division part.
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AI Wessex
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Tom, what's your best guess how it will go? It appears that Walker has the edge in polling and that the turnout will be extraordinarily high for such an election, but it all depends on who shows up and how the vote.
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TomDavidson
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I honestly don't know. It's literally all down to turnout; there aren't really undecideds left.
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Paladine
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quote:
Wisconsin has become ground zero for the Republicans' divide-and-conquer strategy, and they've certainly managed the division part.
Oh, get off it. The politics of division belong almost entirely to the Left: from the mindless droning about a "war on women" to constant allegations of racism or homophobia or sexism on the part of their opponents to the 99% vs the 1%, the rich vs the middle class, and on and on.
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TomDavidson
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quote:
The politics of division belong almost entirely to the Left...
Really? You think so.
Well, then, just keep proving my point for me, Pal. [Wink]

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AI Wessex
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Paladine, that was the funniest comment I've seen on Ornery in a long time.
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Paladine
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quote:
Really? You think so.
Well, then, just keep proving my point for me, Pal.

How's that, Tom? One party systematically tries to use class warfare and tension along racial lines to advance its political fortunes. It openly declares that it's trying to serve one part of the country ("the 99%") and not the other ("the 1%"). Its President routinely inserts himself in local matters having to do with race when he senses that doing so might play to his favor, from Henry Louis Gates to Trayvon Martin. It paints every policy decision as one that pits neighbor against neighbor, American against American. And yet it's the other party that's trying to "divide and conquer"? How can you say that with a straight face?
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TomDavidson
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*laugh* The fact that you think Democrats engage in class warfare when Walker is systematically dismantling my state's economy and handing it to the rich -- while blaming it on "union thugs" -- is, I submit, evidence of how thoroughly you've bought into the propaganda, Pal.

But, again, you're pretty deep inside the beast, so I'm completely unsurprised by your inability to perceive reality.

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Greg Davidson
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Pivoting from the massive private sector failure that caused the economic collapse of 2008 and instead implementing corrective actions that target government spending and unions is class warfare. Considering a top marginal tax rate far lower than under Reagan is not.
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Paladine
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quote:
*laugh* The fact that you think Democrats engage in class warfare when Walker is systematically dismantling my state's economy and handing it to the rich -- while blaming it on "union thugs" -- is, I submit, evidence of how thoroughly you've bought into the propaganda, Pal.
Curtailing public sector union powers is "dismantling [your] state's economy and handing it to the rich"? See, that's exactly the type of thing I'm talking about. Every policy disagreement boils down to an argument that Republicans hate the poor or women or minorities or the elderly or gays or whomever else the victim of the day is. Y'all are welcome to talk like that if you want, but then at least have the decency not to whine about the other side being divisive.

quote:
But, again, you're pretty deep inside the beast, so I'm completely unsurprised by your inability to perceive reality.
Your analysis is about as penetrating and insightful as it usually is.
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JWatts
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To the topic at hand. Walker will probably survive the recall vote.

And this will be bad news for Obama's re-election bid. Not terminal by any means, but it's clearly going to be a hit. Democrat's have prominently claimed that Walker's defeat was a given. Just look at the comment posted above:

quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
it's impossible to describe how furious the state -- on both sides of the aisle -- is over this;

It's going to be hard to rectify such statements with reality if Walker survives the recall. Particularly if he wins the vote by a significant margin (> 4%).

In such a case, it's likely that Democratic voters will tend to stay home in November and Republican voters will tend to get out and vote. To counter that, Obama will have to spend far more effort and money in what should be a reliably blue state. Wisconsin hasn't voted for a Republican Presidential candidate since Reagan annihilated Mondale in 1984. So Wisconsin as a swing state is not a very appealing idea for Democrats.

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Pyrtolin
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quote:
Originally posted by Paladine:
quote:
Wisconsin has become ground zero for the Republicans' divide-and-conquer strategy, and they've certainly managed the division part.
Oh, get off it. The politics of division belong almost entirely to the Left: from the mindless droning about a "war on women" to constant allegations of racism or homophobia or sexism on the part of their opponents to the 99% vs the 1%, the rich vs the middle class, and on and on.
And it was the kid in the streets that asked why the emperor was naked who was at fault for his lack of clothes, not the tailors that bamboozled him.

Since you just effectively defined pointing out divisive tactics as a divisive tactic in and of itself, do you suggest that we should just pretend that divisive tactics aren't being used?

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Greg Davidson
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Polls look like Walker will survive the recall vote, but the effects on the election will be negligible. There will be four more major twists in the narrative at least between now and the election. Twenty years ago this week, Ross Perot was on the cover of Time magazine, and a month later he was beating both Bush and Clinton in the polls.

In the past, the health of the economy has been the primary driver of Presidential elections. If the economy stays on its current course (or if a foreign economic collapse drags down the US economy), past models would predict that it would be difficult for an incumbent to win.

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TCB
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Paladine said:
quote:
Its President routinely inserts himself in local matters having to do with race when he senses that doing so might play to his favor, from Henry Louis Gates to Trayvon Martin.
This is just a technical point, but has Obama weighed in on a racially charged local matter besides the cases of Gates and Martin? Maybe there are more examples out there, but I can't think of them, and two instances in three years doesn't constitute "routine."
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TomDavidson
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quote:
Curtailing public sector union powers is "dismantling [your] state's economy and handing it to the rich"?
If that's the extent of what you think Walker's doing, you are misinformed. Do some research, seriously, then get back to me; you just don't know enough about his actual actions to discuss them.
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TomDavidson
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quote:
It's going to be hard to rectify such statements with reality if Walker survives the recall.
As a side note, JWatts, I wasn't implying that the Republicans are furious with Walker; they're sucking at the same teats he is, and only a handful of them are regretting having climbed onto that cart. But they are furious about the recall itself. What we're seeing is a scenario in which a divisive, radical agenda has split the electorate almost perfectly in half, while raising the stakes enough that no one can afford to not actually have an opinion; the perception from either side is that people's livelihoods are at stake, although of course in the Republican case that perception is only due to massive misinformation from their machine.
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PSRT
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quote:
If that's the extent of what you think Walker's doing, you are misinformed. Do some research, seriously, then get back to me; you just don't know enough about his actual actions to discuss them.
Of course, curtailing public sector union's ability to negotiate is, yes, handing a section of the economy to the rich.
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AI Wessex
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90% of Walker supporters say they will vote. 80% of Barrett supporters say they will vote. Both are exaggerated, but the point is made that Walker's side is more likely to vote. The incredible amount of money that has been spent on advertising is slanted toward Walker by almost 10:1. The Dems will lose this vote, but they had better learn the lesson that they have to compete at the level and with the focused intensity the national GOP PACs are doing. Obama is at a disadvantage on that front, as most of his money has been donated directly to his campaign. Republican money is flowing to the PACs and they are not afraid to tear him down by any means their money can buy. Paladine, I'm quite honestly astonished you think it is the other way around and that it was in the past. You seriously are not looking at events clearly.
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Viking_Longship
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quote:
Originally posted by Paladine:
quote:
Wisconsin has become ground zero for the Republicans' divide-and-conquer strategy, and they've certainly managed the division part.
Oh, get off it. The politics of division belong almost entirely to the Left: from the mindless droning about a "war on women" to constant allegations of racism or homophobia or sexism on the part of their opponents to the 99% vs the 1%, the rich vs the middle class, and on and on.
And Republicans accuse Palin's critics of sexism, accuse Liberals of a mission to undermine the family, accuse Democrats of cultivating a voting base amongst poor welfare dependant minorities, and of things like waging a war on Christmas.

Democrats have plenty to answer for, far more than they admit to, but arguing that the politics of division belong almost completely to one side? You're samrter than that.

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Viking_Longship
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quote:
Originally posted by Paladine:
quote:
Wisconsin has become ground zero for the Republicans' divide-and-conquer strategy, and they've certainly managed the division part.
Oh, get off it. The politics of division belong almost entirely to the Left: from the mindless droning about a "war on women" to constant allegations of racism or homophobia or sexism on the part of their opponents to the 99% vs the 1%, the rich vs the middle class, and on and on.
"Whether they are defending the Soviet Union or bleating for Saddam Hussein, liberals are always against America. They are either traitors or idiots." - Ann Coulter

"Let me sum up in two words how the unhinged Left copes with the threat of global jihad: "Kill Bush!" Michelle Malkin

"…I have a number of things that I am gonna demand and one of them is that no more Muslim immigrants come into this country. No more mosques be permitted to be built in this country…and yes we need racial profiling immediately… And how did these Muslims get into England?... These vermin, these vermins, snuck in under asylum laws and the only reason there was an asylum law is that the liberals of England…said that we have to be nicer to Muslims." - Michael Savage

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Grant
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You're bad.

No, you're bad.

No, you're bad.

No, you're bad.

Maybe, but you're worse.

No, you're worse.

No, you're worse.

[ June 03, 2012, 02:15 PM: Message edited by: Grant ]

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Viking_Longship
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I had that debate with my nephew when he was about 4.
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TomDavidson
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The thing about false equivalence is: as long as one side does anything even slightly bad, the other side can say, "You're bad, too!"

But I don't think it's possible for any rational person to seriously argue that the current crop of Republicans are not far, far worse.

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Viking_Longship
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Tom the current crop of Republicans as a whole vs the Current crop of Democrats as a whole or are we talking about individuals?
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TomDavidson
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I think each crop consists of individuals.
But I think the current Republican Party strategy is deliberately more hostile, confrontational and divisive than the current Democratic Party strategy, and consequently more harmful to the constructive governance of the state (and country).

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Grant
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AH: You must admit, Helige Petrus, that Genghis is much more schlechter den mich.

GK: Yajv boovoo saa, Adolf!

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philnotfil
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I seriously don't know what to think of this:
wcmcoop.com

quote:
“First off, let me be clear, set the stage here … I’ve had a high level of integrity all the way back to my early days as a kid when I earned the rank of Eagle Scout, and have shown that during my time in the State Assembly, as the County Executive, and now as the Governor of the State of Wisconsin. I will continue to have high integrity long after I’m in this position and long after this whole process is complete.” –Scott Walker
quote:
Midway through that spring semester, Bernadette alleges, Ruth found out she was pregnant. She informed her boyfriend, Scott, and initially he was supportive. That support changed to callous indifference for his girlfriend’s predicament after Scott informed his parents of the pregnancy.

Bernadette reports that at this point Scott began denying that he was the father of the baby, and when Ruth said she was considering an abortion, he claimed he didn’t care, as he wasn’t the father anyway.

quote:
After consulting with her family, Ruth decided against an abortion. Bernadette was with Ruth in the hospital for the birth of her child later that year (and says Walker was not present), and later stood up as a bridesmaid in Ruth’s 1992 marriage to another man. She says Walker eventually had to concede that he was the father, after the birth and paternity test.
quote:
Over the phone, Bernadette recounted how she watched a recent televised debate between Scott Walker and Tom Barrett. As he talked about his “lifelong integrity” her anger grew. This was a man who had abandoned his pregnant young girlfriend — completely turned his back on her at the most fragile point in her life. She notes his “now-convenient ‘pro-life’ proclamations” after burying his past “indiscretion.” Says Bernadette, “I cannot listen to his lies anymore … I cannot dream of how anyone would support such an evil man. Once a man shows that he has no soul, there is nothing more.”
Story blown out of proportion for political purposes? Possibly. Timed and delivered for political purposes? Almost definitely. Presented in a biased way? Absolutely. True? It sounds like it.
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ken_in_sc
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According to what I read this is the wrong Scott Walker.
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ken_in_sc
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People are now saying that this story was a Republican plant to make Democrats look desperate.
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PSRT
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Grant, the ethical position you are staking out seems to be that if two wrong actions are taken, then both parties committing the wrong action are equally as worthy of blame. So, if I murder someone, and you take a tootsie roll from CVS without paying for it, the position you've currently staked is that we should both be condemned an equal amount. OR, perhaps, that we shouldn't bother having a discussion about who has done the worse deed.

[ June 03, 2012, 08:25 PM: Message edited by: PSRT ]

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Grant
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I'm not staking out an ethical position. I'm pointing out how comical it is that when I was brought up before the judge for shoplifting, I pointed a finger at you and shouted "but he killed someone".

I'm reminded of the people who get pulled over by the cops for speeding and say "Don't you have better things to do then pull me over for speeding?."

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AI Wessex
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"People are now saying that this story was a Republican plant to make Democrats look desperate."

There's news, stories about how news gets reported, which becomes news, and why news gets reported, which becomes news. You just have to find which of those extra angles helps your side if in fact you did what the original story reported. I noticed the reports that were cited above, but the Republicans will create as much FUD as possible by denying and pointing fingers in the other direction until the recall is over and Walker is safe. They could care less what happens on Wednesday. Walker could be a monster, but he'd still be better than the alternative.

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AI Wessex
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A couple of tidbits in the news today:

. Barrett was constrained by the $10,000 per person maximum contribution, but Walker was not since the rules for being an incumbent in a recall election allow unlimited fundraising from each person. Barrett received 27 maximum donations of $10,000 and Walker received 111 donations in excess of the limit.

. In Madison, more than 100% of registered voters cast ballots today! Hunh?!?! It doesn't mean that there were shenanigans at the polls, but it means that in addition to the amazingly high turnout rate, a lot of new voters registered today when they went to vote. That's amazing.

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TomDavidson
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I asked every single adult I saw today without an "I Voted" sticker if they had voted. If they said they had not, I suggested that they do so. If they said they were not registered, I called a friend who took the day off so he could help people register.
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AI Wessex
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NBC has already called it for Walker. That's earlier than most people expected.
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TomDavidson
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I think they're doing that based on the Milwaukee numbers. It's hard to tell, though.
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edgmatt
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Nice to see the people in Wisconsin kept their heads and voted to keep in the man who has done so much to help the state as a whole.

Aside from the unbelievable precedent that would have been set that would allow a recall to happen based on political stance instead of something criminal, it's absolutely absurd that the man had to go through this because he attempted to do the things that he said he was going to do, which got him elected.

Shame on the Democrats for abusing and belittling the system.

Kudos for the citizens of Wisconsin for electing Walker twice.

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Greg Davidson
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quote:
Aside from the unbelievable precedent that would have been set that would allow a recall to happen based on political stance instead of something criminal
That precedent was set when Gov Grey Davis was recalled in California.
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Greg Davidson
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Is it material that the Walker campaign had about ten times as much campaign funds (something like $34M vs. $3.6M)? Maybe that's what we can expect in the Citizen's United era.
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