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KidTokyo
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Just heard it on the Brian Leher show this morning. SCOTUS has upheld the healthcare mandate. Roberts joined the left.

Reason: it falls under the taxation power.

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KidTokyo
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Dissenters: Scalia, Thomas, Alito, Kennedy.

Roberts was the swinger! [Eek!]

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Grant
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Yup
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DonaldD
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One would expect Roberts to uphold the law in this case - I think only politics would have pushed him in the other direction, but that was always the main risk here...

So, speaking of politics - does having his law vindicated help Obama, or is Romney given ammunition to attack both Obama and the court decision?

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philnotfil
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Now that we have removed that uncertainty, our economy can start moving again?
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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by philnotfil:
Now that we have removed that uncertainty, our economy can start moving again?

Market says:

Noooooooo.

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AI Wessex
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"So, speaking of politics - does having his law vindicated help Obama, or is Romney given ammunition to attack both Obama and the court decision?"

It hurts him either way, because the right has become so adamant and energized over the past few years that everything has to go exactly their way or they fight. I think it will make the rest of the campaign even more vicious than it otherwise would be, and like I said, if the decision had gone the other way, same...

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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by DonaldD:
One would expect Roberts to uphold the law in this case - I think only politics would have pushed him in the other direction, but that was always the main risk here...

Hrrrmmmm. So Kennedy was pushed by politics to dissent? Along with Scalia and Thomas and whoever? Politics pushed them in that direction?

So that would make Roberts the most unpolitical member of the Supreme court? Right?

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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by DonaldD:
So, speaking of politics - does having his law vindicated help Obama, or is Romney given ammunition to attack both Obama and the court decision?

Both. The President is vindicated but Romney has another tool in his belt. The size of that tool depends on how many people are not in favor of the Affordable Care Act.
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Wayward Son
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Sounds like the majority agreed with me, that while the law "requires" people to buy health insurance, the penalty simply amount to a tax on those without it.

"The justices voted 5 to 4 to uphold the law's individual mandate provision and thus the entire law, as authorized by Congress' power to levy taxes."

Personally, I'm relieved, since it ensures that my son always will be able to get health insurance, despite his chronic condition. [Big Grin]

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KidTokyo
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quote:
Both. The President is vindicated but Romney has another tool in his belt. The size of that tool depends on how many people are not in favor of the Affordable Care Act.
I'm not sure we should be discussing the size of Romney's tool.
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Wayward Son
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quote:
Now that we have removed that uncertainty, our economy can start moving again?
So far the result has been mixed:

quote:
The Guardian's Dominic Rushe reports on the reaction on Wall Street, happy to profit from people's misery:

"The Dow has dropped 155 points (1.22%) following the Scotus ruling but that's probably more to do with news from Europe – or the lack of it – than Obamacare.

There is some fallout for the healthcare industry though. Hospital stocks have soared. Hospitals have been rooting for the law to stay – more Americans with health cover means more patients. HCA Holdings was up 8.5% and THC Healthcare rose 11%. What's the opposite of ambulance chasers?"


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Grant
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LOL

Not living room appropriate! Strike it from the lists!

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Wayward Son
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Some reactions from the (far?) Right.
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Grant
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quote:
"The Dow has dropped 155 points (1.22%) following the Scotus ruling but that's probably more to do with news from Europe – or the lack of it – than Obamacare.

Sorry. Incorrect. I've been watching CNBC all morning, as I do almost every morning. The Dow has only dropped 50 points since the ruling. The first drop of 100 points occured at the opening, so it mostly occured after hours.

The drop of 50 points has occured since the ruling, beginning almost immediately after. There has been no new news concerning Europe since the ruling, so the extra drop of 50 points could not be attributed to Europe.

Wow. Dominic Rushe sucks.

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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by Wayward Son:
Some reactions from the (far?) Right.

I don't see how these people believe that they have a legal leg to stand on when it was Chief Justice Roberts who was the swinger here.

I havn't heard the dissenting opinions yet. It was still a 5-4 decision, but the fact that Roberts was in favor is telling, at least for me.

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Grant
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Romney:

"What the court did not do, I will do on my first day in office, repeal Obamacare".

Paraphrased. Sorry.

There ya go. There is your......thing.

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philnotfil
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quote:
Originally posted by Grant:
quote:
Originally posted by philnotfil:
Now that we have removed that uncertainty, our economy can start moving again?

Market says:

Noooooooo.

I totally understand, if I had been shifting costs to my employee's pocket and out of mine, I'd be unhappy about this too.
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AI Wessex
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All those reactions were expected. Bachmann is on record as saying Obamacare will bring about the end of civilization as we know it. My favorite of the quotes was:
quote:
"This opinion may allow the government to compel people to pay into the system, but it can't compel any of us to abandon our most deeply held convictions. This is a moral, spiritual and ethical crisis. People of conscience will need to make difficult decisions, including engaging in conscientious objection or even respectful civil disobedience, which may bring painful penalties with it. It's time to be prayerful, brave, and strong. From here on we will need help from God and from one another."
Hold onto your hats, boys and girls, it's going to be a bumpy ride.
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Pete at Home
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I was not aware that Romney was rhe driving force against obamacare. Ir is that just a figure if speech not that Romney's the official Anti-Bama
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Pyrtolin
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And then there are the people that are really, really confused:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/daves4/people-moving-to-canada-because-of-obamacare

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AI Wessex
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[Pyr:] [LOL]

[Pete:] "Ir is that just a figure if speech not that Romney's the official Anti-Bama"

Like all Republicans and Conservatives (he's one, perhaps both for the moment), he's anathobama.

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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by Pyrtolin:
And then there are the people that are really, really confused:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/daves4/people-moving-to-canada-because-of-obamacare

Kinda like moving south to get away from the heat, huh?
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DonaldD
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Well, not if you move sufficiently southwards... So I guess if you moved sufficiently far into Canada... there are no taxes, no insurance and no healthcare on the tundra I suppose.
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Pyrtolin
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In this case, move "sufficently far" and end up in Russia or Scandiavia. And going the other way puts them in Mexic, which just gets more amusing.
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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by DonaldD:
Well, not if you move sufficiently southwards... So I guess if you moved sufficiently far into Canada... there are no taxes, no insurance and no healthcare on the tundra I suppose.

Death and Taxes, brother, Death and Taxes.

The Grim Reaper and the Tax Man are both the children of inescapability.

Want to know the best way to boost the US Space Program? Tell them that the Foie Gras are moving to Mars.

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Wayward Son
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quote:
So, speaking of politics - does having his law vindicated help Obama, or is Romney given ammunition to attack both Obama and the court decision?
Nate Silverman has a level-headed analysis of the effects of the ruling on the upcoming election:

quote:
The health care law is likely to remain fairly unpopular; opinions about it have been essentially unchanged for most of the last two years. The bill was probably partially responsible for the significant losses that Democrats endured in the 2010 midterm elections.

But continued dissatisfaction over the health care bill was presumably already priced into the polls. A decision that upholds the status quo is not likely to change that much. ...

And be wary of whatever the polls say for the next week or two — the short-term reaction to the news of the ruling may not match its long-term political effects. As before, the presidential election is mostly likely to be contested mainly on economic grounds. Next week’s jobs report is likely to have a larger effect on the election than what the Supreme Court ruled on Thursday. ...

But particularly given the public’s confusion over the health care law, my view has been to keep it simple: Mr. Obama got the good headline here, and that is likely to be most of what the public reacts to. ...

Some of the analyses that claim the law could help Mr. Romney instead argue that Thursday’s decision could motivate the Republican base. But the Republican base was already reasonably well motivated for the election. A decision to strike down the law, meanwhile, would have represented a victory for movement conservatism — and victory can be its own motivating force.

So, overall, it will probably have very little effect on the outcome of the November election.
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Pyrtolin
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http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/06/nino-scalia-thought-he-had-his-constitutional-moment-and-his-majority.html

Looks like Roberts even managed to take Scalia by surprise on this one.

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Pyrtolin
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Silverman?
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Wayward Son
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quote:
Silverman?
Would you believe, "Nate Silver?"

How about "FiveThirtyEight.com?"

How about a mean little boy with a slingshot? [Wink] [Embarrassed]

[ June 28, 2012, 02:23 PM: Message edited by: Wayward Son ]

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Grant
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Brad DeLong is apparently not a fan of Justice Scalia.
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DonaldD
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quote:
Originally posted by Pyrtolin:
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2012/06/nino-scalia-thought-he-had-his-constitutional-moment-and-his-majority.html

Looks like Roberts even managed to take Scalia by surprise on this one.

I think the author over-reaches here: Gisburg did actually dissent from the majority on the question of whether the commerce clause supported the law. As such, Scalia's use of the 'dissent' term is not evidence of him being caught off-guard.
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TomDavidson
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I won $30 on this; I bet a friend specifically that I thought Roberts would be the swing vote in favor of preserving the law.
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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
I won $30 on this; I bet a friend specifically that I thought Roberts would be the swing vote in favor of preserving the law.

I hope he gave you really good odds. If it was 1 to 1, you got cheated. If you bet $30 bucks you should be sitting on 3 Grand right now. That's $3000 more that could be going to Obama for America the next time somebody you know gets married.
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Wayward Son
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Well, I complement you on your prescience, Tom. I had pretty much steeled myself for the Court finding the mandate unconstitutional, and watching the entire health care act unravel.

Spend it on something fun. [Smile]

[ June 28, 2012, 02:59 PM: Message edited by: Wayward Son ]

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msquared
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Tom didn't say the number of bets he lost betting against it.

I mean if I go in to the roulette table and put down $10 on every number and my number comes up, can I claim that I won at roulette?

msquared

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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by msquared:
Tom didn't say the number of bets he lost betting against it.

I mean if I go in to the roulette table and put down $10 on every number and my number comes up, can I claim that I won at roulette?

msquared

[Confused]

Pass me some of that kool-aid.

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msquared
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Grant,

If I go into a casino and place a $10 bet on every number on the table, I am sure (almost) to have a bet on the wining number. The fact that how much I win does not cover what I spent does not matter. I can tell people I bet on number 6 and won that bet. Does that clear it up?

If I bet 1 friend that Roberts would be the swing judge and another friend that Kennedy would be the swing judge, I split the bet. But I come and report that I bet Roberts would be the swing and look like I had a crystal ball.

msquared

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Grant
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M^2,

Just how many bets did Tom make concerning the outcome of the ruling?

See, I'm assuming he just made one bet, with his friend that he refers to, which he won, and claimed $30.

You're assuming that he could have made 100 bets, and that 51% of them, monetarily wise, were losses.

Now, which scenario is more plausible? Just going on the information available? Hmmmmmmmmm.

How much are you willing to wager that Tom made multiple bets, some of which were in opposition to the bet that he stated that he won?

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msquared
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I was poking a bit of fun at him. People almost always tell you about the bets they won but not the bets they lost.

msquared

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