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Author Topic: ZZZzzzZZZzzz.... There they go again in the Middle East .....
Lloyd Perna
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Here's a thought experiment for you.

If Israel put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

If Palestine put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

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NobleHunter
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Hannibal, do you know why Hamas' rockets aren't killing anyone? Are they being shot down? Is their aim just that bad?

ETA: Lloyd, the answer to that question doesn't mean we should blindly support Israel. We can still critize their methods even though they face an existential threat. Journey before destination.

[ July 15, 2014, 11:18 AM: Message edited by: NobleHunter ]

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Lloyd Perna
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My point is that I don't think there is anything Israel could do to satisfy Hamas short of mass suicide. Because of this I think they are justified in attempting to destroy that portion of the Palestinian population that are the biggest threat to them as long as they take reasonable measures to ensure a minimum of collateral damage to civilians. And it appears to me they are doing just that.
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NobleHunter
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Forgive me if I don't think mass murder is an appropriate solution. I don't think it'd be effective, either. Even the mass property damage hasn't seemed to accomplish much.
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Mynnion
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Llyod
quote:
Here's a thought experiment for you.

If Israel put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

If Palestine put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

I think it would be somewhat dependent on how it occurred. Even if Hamas stops firing rockets they will start again the next time Israel provides them with an excuse.

Israel is actually fairly tolerant of an occasional rocket. They are playing a long game.

Hamas is going to continue to receive support from the average Palestinian as long as they feel Hamas offers them the best chance of getting rid of the occupation. When the recent kidnapping occurred of the three young Israeli men Israel conducted door to door searches of whole neighborhoods and arrested/detained over 600 individuals. When the young Palestinian (also an Israeli citizen)was kidnapped a careful investigation took place and quickly identified the guilty. There is much more such as the inequitable control of resources in the West Bank. None of these excuse Hamas but becomes easy to understand why they gain support.

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Seneca
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quote:
Originally posted by Mynnion:
Seneca
quote:
Um, Hamas isn't going anywhere because the Arab population there (sorry I don't buy into the myth of Palestine, I am too educated about which nations really ran that chunk of land prior to the Jews moving in, also, the Arabs wouldn't have left so easily at the call of neighboring Arab states in the first war if they had any sense of national identity as Palestinians), voted them into power!

The Arab population has given Hamas their stamp of approval via the ballot box. In a logical world this should resolve any doubt Israel has and recognize everyone who chooses to stay there as an enemy of Israel or at least supporting those enemies.
If a US terrorist group who was attacking Canada or Mexico got elected into power and controlled our government, I would fully expect Canada or Mexico to launch full scale war operations against us as an entire nation. The Arabs living next to Israel have sealed their fate by electing Hamas to be their government. If they don't want Israel to respond to Hamas's mission to wipe out all Jews and wipe out Israel then I recommended those specific Arabs get the hell out of Dodge while the getting is good.

If I lived next to a powerful country and my government declared war on that powerful nation, I would read the tactical writing on the wall and scram before I got obliterated. Apparently people in Gaza have a hard time understanding this simple logic.

I'm not going to respond to all of this because it is largely bunk. I will however respond to your "Myth of Palestine" comment. First I attaching a link to wiki that contains approximate demographic data. There has clearly been a strong Arab presence for a long time. The term for the region "Palestine" is obscure coming into common usage during either the late Ottoman occupation or early English occupation. The name itself really has little meaning other than the fact that it is the name that the Arab population living there choose to refer to it. The fact that the name is not thousands of years old does not change the fact that a large group of Arabs have long term roots in the area.

Demographics of Palestine

"Largely bunk." Funny, I think the same about what you've written. Is that a childish-enough response to satisfy you? [Roll Eyes]


In terms of the myth of Palestine, this is a fairly decent explanation of how Palestine is an artifact of modern origins and prior to 1948 there was no national movement among the Arabs living there to be their own country.
http://acdemocracy.org/palestinians-myths-rewriting-the-history/

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Lloyd Perna
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quote:
Originally posted by NobleHunter:
Forgive me if I don't think mass murder is an appropriate solution. I don't think it'd be effective, either. Even the mass property damage hasn't seemed to accomplish much.

It's not mass murder. It's war. I'm talking about the people firing the rockets, those supporting them and those leading them.
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Lloyd Perna
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quote:
Originally posted by Mynnion:
When the recent kidnapping occurred of the three young Israeli men Israel conducted door to door searches of whole neighborhoods and arrested/detained over 600 individuals.

Why did Israel have to do this? Where was the investigation by the Palestinian "Government"?
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NobleHunter
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"Portion of the population" makes it mass murder. So does "collateral damage."
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Hannibal
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Hannibal, do you know why Hamas' rockets aren't killing anyone? Are they being shot down? Is their aim just that bad?

A: Because these are not the most technologically advanced weapons, these are innacurate weapons that are supposed to be fired in massive barrages and Hamas is largly incapable of sustaining massive barrages.

And because of Iron Dome as well.

Although "Score 1" for Hamas, they did kill someone from a mortar attack today on one of the small Kibutzim around Gaza. Iron Dome can't stop mortars.

Noble Hunter, You do realize that we cannot "risk it" when it comes to where the rockets would land. Also, it is I believe that Iron Dome's effect is quite statistically significant by now:
Before Iron Dome, we had roughly 1 casualty per 100 rockets, now we have one casualty (from a mortar) per more than a 1000 rockets.

If you are alluding that Hamas is not really trying to kill civilians than I may consider you to be some very nasty things, so please clarify on that please before I call you those things.

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NobleHunter
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Of course they're trying to kill civilians, I was just wondering why the rockets were so bad at it. I suppose I should have added that in my first post [Razz]
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Hannibal
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Then as I said, it is mostly thanks to Iron Dome.
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NobleHunter
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Thanks.
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Mynnion
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Hannibal-
quote:
Although "Score 1" for Hamas, they did kill someone from a mortar attack today on one of the small Kibutzim around Gaza. Iron Dome can't stop mortars.
I'm curious. Was this today because I haven't seen anything on YNET or JPOST?

One life is too many on either side.

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Hannibal
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Yes, it was today. Around 7pm Israel time
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Mynnion
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Ynet has it now. Thanks
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LetterRip
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Hannibal,

expert estimates are that they can hit about 5% of what they shoot at.

quote:
Ted Postol, an MIT-based missile defense expert and frequent Bulletin contributor, provided a dose of context to the Iron Dome coverage in a National Public Radio interview Wednesday. "We can tell, for sure, from video images and even photographs that the Iron Dome system is not working very well at all," Postol said. "It—my guess is maybe [it hits a targeted missile] 5 percent of the time—could be even lower. ... And when you look—what you can do in the daytime—you can see the smoky contrail of each Iron Dome interceptor, and you can see the Iron Domes trying to intercept the artillery rockets side on and from behind. In those geometries, the Iron Dome has no chance, for all practical purposes, of destroying the artillery rocket."
http://thebulletin.org/iron-dome-public-relations-weapon7308
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Hannibal
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Then I guess god is stopping the remaining 85% percent of intercepted missiles because somehow they are not hitting their targets
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LetterRip
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NobleHunter,

quote:
POSTOL: A typical explosive is 20 to 30 pounds which is quite enough to kill you if it lands near you. But, you know, if you take shelter it's unlikely to cause your house to collapse, and Israelis are set up to take shelter.
http://www.npr.org/2014/07/09/330183774/the-rockets-from-hamas-and-the-iron-dome-that-could-use-patching

Blast radius for 20 lbs of explosive is similar to that for a suicide vest - I think the kill radius is 20 ft or less, shrapnel danger radius is triple that.

http://www.nctc.gov/site/technical/bomb_threat.html

Essentially you have to be unlucky in order for such a missile to kill you - it either needs to be a direct hit, or caught out in the open, or unlucky piece of shrapnel.

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LetterRip
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Hannibal,

the missiles aren't particularly accurate or reliable, and have low lethal radius. With an air raid warning - mostly everyone can get indoors and be out of danger.

While I'm sure that whoever is firing the rockets would prefer that they killed someone, the primary goal is likely to goad Israel into doing strikes that kill Palestinian civilians.

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NobleHunter
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quote:
While I'm sure that whoever is firing the rockets would prefer that they killed someone, the primary goal is likely to goad Israel into doing strikes that kill Palestinian civilians.
Which is true regardless of how well Iron Dome works.
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Hannibal
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And a more scientific reply :

Counter experts say that Ted Postol is wrong:

"
Misunderstanding How Iron Dome Works
In 1991, Dr. Postol correctly refuted U.S. Army claims about the success of the Patriot air and missile defense system during the Gulf War. Using publicly available video footage, he showed that instead of the proclaimed success rate of around 80% the real rate was close to zero. Subsequently, the U.S. Army retracted its claims and conceded that Postol’s arguments were essentially correct. At the time, the Patriot’s poor performance had already been an open secret, even before Dr.Postol’s study came out. As I can testify from my own experience in Tel Aviv during that war, the lack of success of Patriot became glaringly apparent to the public shortly after it went into action. Simply put, it was obvious that the Scud warheads were exploding on the ground rather being destroyed in the air. Thus, although Dr. Postol was the first to publicize the failure, he was not the first to notice it.

The reason for the erroneous evaluation of Patriot’s performance by the U.S. Army is also well known by now. It had to do with a faulty scoring logic programmed into the system – a typical beginner’s mistake in a new type of warfare, a mistake which has been corrected and learned from. In fact, it was the 1991 failure of the Patriot system, along with increasing threats from short- and long-range missiles that pushed Israel to develop its own missile defense system and endowed Dr. Postol with an aura of infallibility in some circles.

In order to better understand the drawbacks in the critics’ line of reasoning, it should be noted that Iron Dome interceptor is equipped with a warhead that is designed to cause a detonation of the hostile rocket’s warhead. Lloyd expects that a successful kill of a hostile rocket should be signaled by two distinct explosions: first, the warhead of a missile fired from the Iron Dome battery, then the target’s warhead. Examining hundreds of online videos of Iron Dome in action, Mr. Lloyd found only few that showed two smoke clouds (in daytime) or two fireballs (at night).

Nevertheless, as seen in videos from the 2010 tests, the two explosions are practically indistinguishable – they happen too fast for the human eye or a commercial video camera to capture. This is supported by the few action videos which can be attributed to specific times and places. For example, all existing footage from a nighttime attack by a single heavy rocket on Tel Aviv on the night of November 18 show the target being destroyed in one huge flash, too powerful to have emanated from just the impact of the Iron Dome’s warhead. Only one single fireball – yet no hostile rocket hit Tel Aviv that night.

"

http://www.middleeast-armscontrol.com/2013/05/08/battle-over-iron-dome/

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Hannibal
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"the missiles aren't particularly accurate or reliable, and have low lethal radius. With an air raid warning - mostly everyone can get indoors and be out of danger."

I can't believe we are having this discussion. I am tempted to call you what I planned on calling NobleHunter.

The J-80 rocket Hamas uses to reach cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa have "substantial warheads". valued at hundreds of pounds. These are no longer the Qasam/Grad rockets that target Shderot, Ashqelon, Be'er Sheva an Ashdod.

And to be absolutly clear, a single rocket launched at an Israeli city should be replied without and remorse and full retaliation. If that is not 100% clear to you, then the problem is with you not with me.

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Seneca
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quote:
Originally posted by LetterRip:
Hannibal,

the missiles aren't particularly accurate or reliable, and have low lethal radius. With an air raid warning - mostly everyone can get indoors and be out of danger.

While I'm sure that whoever is firing the rockets would prefer that they killed someone, the primary goal is likely to goad Israel into doing strikes that kill Palestinian civilians.

Regardless of that, Israel must respond even if no Israelis die.

You don't sit around and let neighboring people rain missiles down on you even if you intercept every one or no one dies from them.

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LetterRip
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Hannibal,

here is the money quote from your article,

quote:
For obvious reasons, Israel has never revealed any details of Iron Dome’s specifications, including kinematics during the interception process. Dr. Postol’s reconstruction is thus based on his own notions of what those specifications should be – which are erroneous. Consequently, his understanding and calculation on how successful intercepts should look like are also largely wrong, as are his general conclusions.
The Israelis don't need to publish the kinematics. It is straight forward physics, as discussed in the MITs Technology Review.

quote:
Figures 6, 7, and 8 show detailed vector diagrams for interceptor engagements that approach the target artillery rocket from the side or from the back. A careful inspection of the geometry of the fuse-sensing beam and the spray pattern of the fragments from the Iron Dome warhead show that there are two very serious problems with these kinds of engagements.

First of all, if the fuse detects the artillery rocket, it has no way of determining where the warhead is on the artillery rocket. Second, it is nearly certain that even if the fuse detonates by chance at a time when the warhead might be in the spray pattern of the Iron Dome warhead, the distance between the Iron Dome warhead and the artillery rocket warhead will in almost all circumstances be very large, resulting in a very low density of fragments at the location of the artillery rocket warhead. Given the small number of fragments that can be dispersed by the Iron Dome warhead, this translates into a very high chance that no fragment will hit the warhead. Making matters even more difficult, the projected area of the warhead is very small, since it will be encountered from the front or back rather than from the side. Moreover, fragments are very likely to hit metal surfaces that are at very low grazing angles relative to the direction of the fragment motion. This will result in fragments’ tending to bounce off the shell or transmit almost no energy to a target. Hence, figures 6, 7, and 8 show that for all practical purposes, the probability that the Iron Dome interceptor can destroy the warhead of the engaged artillery rocket is essentially zero.

As he notes, the reason for the low casualties is exactly as I pointed out - early warning, small amount of explosive, and readily available shelters.

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/528991/an-explanation-of-the-evidence-of-weaknesses-in-the-iron-dome-defense-system/

[ July 15, 2014, 03:49 PM: Message edited by: LetterRip ]

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Hannibal
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"As he notes, the reason for the low casualties is exactly as I pointed out - early warning and readily available shelters."

Don't forget, its also because we are the chosen people

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NobleHunter
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LR, Hannibal's article also argues that Iron Dome's effectiveness can be measured by the decrease in causalties and damage following its introduction. Has there been an improvement in early warning/shelters over that time? The technology review article didn't mention any.
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DJQuag
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quote:
Originally posted by Lloyd Perna:
Here's a thought experiment for you.

If Israel put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

If Palestine put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

If Israel stopped, Palestinian fighters would most likely continue their attacks until the siege ended and annexed lands were returned. They would no doubt do this by attacking civilians; although Hebollah did very well against Israel in the last Lebanese war, Hamas just doesn't have the numbers or equipment to stand toe to toe with the Israeli military.

If Palestine stopped, Israel would continue it's creeping annexation and settlement until the religious right in the country succeeded in reclaiming all of god's land for the Chosen People. Palestinians would be continually pushed into choosing to leave the area.

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Hannibal
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"If Palestine stopped, Israel would continue it's creeping annexation and settlement until the religious right in the country succeeded in reclaiming all of god's land for the Chosen People. Palestinians would be continually pushed into choosing to leave the area."

And this is where you are wrong, because the Palestinians can instantaneously get a country for themselves and get rid of all the settlements. All they need to do is to agree to the two state solution.

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LetterRip
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NobleHunter,

quote:
LR, Hannibal's article also argues that Iron Dome's effectiveness can be measured by the decrease in causalties and damage following its introduction. Has there been an improvement in early warning/shelters over that time? The technology review article didn't mention any.
2006 was the second Lebanon war.

Also as stated by the Israelis,

quote:

Q. Such as?

A. Honed coordination with the Home Front Command. We provided very close to 100 percent accurate and precise early warning on time, which saved lives.

If you compare to the first Gulf War in 1991, when each Iraqi el-Hussein missile forced citizens to stay in shelters with gas masks for hours, today we can pinpoint alerts sometimes even to specific neighborhoods.

Q. Three civilians died in the rocket attacks last November. Did they ignore the warnings?

A. Regretfully, we suffered three civilian deaths during the last operation, maybe because they didn’t hear or understand the warnings. But we’ve greatly improved since the second Lebanon War [2006]. Thanks to our doctrine, the increasing robustness of our air defense system and opportunities for exceedingly realistic drills with our US allies, we’ll continue to improve for next time around.

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130511/DEFREG04/305110009/Israel-Building-Up-Rocket-Response-Early-Warning
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Mynnion
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Hannibal-
quote:
"If Palestine stopped, Israel would continue it's creeping annexation and settlement until the religious right in the country succeeded in reclaiming all of god's land for the Chosen People. Palestinians would be continually pushed into choosing to leave the area."

And this is where you are wrong, because the Palestinians can instantaneously get a country for themselves and get rid of all the settlements. All they need to do is to agree to the two state solution.

Do you really believe that Israel would pull the 350,000+ settlers out of the WB? First it would amount to Civil War since the majority would refuse to leave peacefully and the Zionist factions would throw in their support. A two state solution might have been possible a few years ago but the continued building and expansion of settlements makes it pretty much impossible.
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Hannibal
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LetterRip, feel free to continue standing in front of the giraffe, saying that such an animal does not exist.

I don't understand what you are trying to claim, it is completely immaterial. If any, Iron Dome saves more Palestinian lives than it saves Israeli ones. Be it a placebo or not, it gives us (Israelis) a notion of protection, without of which our army would have been searching for the Hamas leadership in the hospital at Gaza by now.

There is no doubt in everybody's minds that Iron Dome is the one thing that moderates our army's reaction the most as the civilian population has a sense of security with it.

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Hannibal
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@Mynnion,

I will assume you are simply not informed where the negotiations with the palestinians have stopped.

Nobody is talking about pulling out 350,000 thousand settlers. Israel will withdraw from ~95% of the west bank and the remaining 5% will be traded with the palestinians on a 1:1 basis for land outside of Gaza, the Judea Desert and the Jezrael Valley.

Thankfully, the vast vast majority of settlers live Jerusalem and Ariel.

This way you will have to relocate a few ten-thousands, and actually consolidate them to the nearby settlements.

All of this is already agreed upon, both by Palestinians and Israelis. There is a vast majority for this agreement and it will not cause a civil war, dont mistake us for Iraq or Egypt pelase. Sure we will have lots of people vehemently opposing this but there is a vast majority for this in ISRAEL.

Don't let the Palestinian propaganda confuse you. The reason why the negotiations have stopped is not because of the settlements but because the Palestinians want the right of return into Israel.

They could have had a state 12 years ago (and in various different opportunities since then) if they just agreed to the two state solution. The thing is that the Palestinians want a one-state solution.

Edit (add):

BECAUSE the Palestinians don't wish future negotiations to get stuck AGAIN, as it already happened numerous times in the past, on the right of return, they simply avoid negotiating at all by saying that they will not negotiate until we freeze the settlements. They are basically hoping that if they will repeat this enough time, people will forget that they want the right of return and focus on the settlements.

[ July 15, 2014, 05:41 PM: Message edited by: Hannibal ]

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LetterRip
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Hannibal,

quote:
I don't understand what you are trying to claim, it is completely immaterial. If any, Iron Dome saves more Palestinian lives than it saves Israeli ones. Be it a placebo or not, it gives us (Israelis) a notion of protection, without of which our army would have been searching for the Hamas leadership in the hospital at Gaza by now.

There is no doubt in everybody's minds that Iron Dome is the one thing that moderates our army's reaction the most as the civilian population has a sense of security with it.

I have no political interest in this discussion. This isn't a criticism of Israel. I'm interested in whether such systems actually work. I don't think they should be over sold.

Interesting your suggestion of placebo effect - I suppose it serves a similar function to the security theater in the US - little actual benefit, but can help those individuals who over estimate the actual threat risk.

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Mynnion
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Seneca-Don't have much time but.
quote:
In terms of the myth of Palestine, this is a fairly decent explanation of how Palestine is an artifact of modern origins and prior to 1948 there was no national movement among the Arabs living there to be their own country.
Of course they didn't. That area was controlled by the Ottoman Empire for hundreds of years and the Brits between the wars. The creation of Israel changed the game. During that time there were occasional issues between the Arabs and Jews but in general they got along fairly well.

When Israel was created there was a significant population overlap and portions of the Arab population were displaced. Israel's new neighbors decided that Israel shouldn't exist and we had war. Some of the local population of Arabs participated some didn't. More were displaced. During this time The local Arab population began calling for their own state. If Israel could exist why not Palestine. The local Arab population, the Druce, and the Bedouin also have a long term history in the Jordan valley. Why should they be forced to move so Israel can expand?

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DJQuag
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Hannibal

I have heard that in the land swap portions of the agreement, that Israel trades worthless desert for some of the best land available in the occupied territories.

Is this true?

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Hannibal
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some of it is desert, but as I said above, some is includes fertile land adjacent to Gaza and from the Jezreel Valley to the north of the west bank.

The Cities of Ariel and Jerusalem are mountainous, its not like they sit on the best possible land in the world. if you ask me I'd rather keep the fertile land than those territories.

The short answer is that the agreement includes land adjacent to Gaza and the WB that is very fertile

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Mynnion
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But the real sticking point is Jerusalem. That hill in the middle with a large retaining wall is a major sticking point.
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Pete at Home
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quote:
Originally posted by DJQuag:
quote:
Originally posted by Lloyd Perna:
Here's a thought experiment for you.

If Israel put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

If Palestine put down their weapons and stopped fighting what would happen?

If Israel stopped, Palestinian fighters would most likely continue their attacks until the siege ended and annexed lands were returned. They would no doubt do this by attacking civilians; although Hebollah did very well against Israel in the last Lebanese war, Hamas just doesn't have the numbers or equipment to stand toe to toe with the Israeli military.

If Palestine stopped, Israel would continue it's creeping annexation and settlement until the religious right in the country succeeded in reclaiming all of god's land for the Chosen People. Palestinians would be continually pushed into choosing to leave the area.

Your speculation does not jibe with history.

In fact, during the time in which Palestinians slowed the terror attacks and made arguable attempts to peace, israel withdrew from Gaza completely and forcibly evacuated israeli settlements in Gaza.

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Hannibal
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"But the real sticking point is Jerusalem. That hill in the middle with a large retaining wall is a major sticking point."

Well, first of all, lets discuss Jerusalem, but the Palestinians wont even negotiate.

Secondly, I believe Jerusalem is a matter of branding (at least for the Israeli people) we can easily sell it that we did not divide Jerusalem and still give East Jerusalem to the Palestinians.

The Palestinians need to quit trying to "stick it" to us and withdraw the ridiculous demand to gain control of the western wall. (Again, why would they want the western wall?!?)

The Dome of the Rock is governed by Jordan anyways (Waqf) We mostly limit the entrance to it in times of violence and outrage so we don't really care if the Palestinians will have control of it or not.

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