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Author Topic: Conspiracy or a case of mistaken identity?
Mynnion
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I just saw this on my news feed. It looks like the rebels screwed up.... or was this a purposeful attack on a civilian plane?

web page

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Seneca
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Maybe there was someone on it they wanted to kill. Either way this is a spark in a gas - filled room.
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LetterRip
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Lots of different possibilities

1) Confused it with a military craft
2) False flag
3) Rogue or Incompetent rebel
4) Someone wanted to really throw gasoline on the fire

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Jack Squat
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5)someone really didn't want to pay alimony/child support.

Whoops, that was the DC sniper.

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MattP
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Supposed transcript of supposed leaked conversation about downing the plane:
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/separatists-admit-downing-a-civilian-plane-in-tapped-conversation-full-transcript-356545.html

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Jack Squat
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So this was shot down by Russia's little green men in the Ukraine ... Russians rent-a-freedom fighters pretending to be Russo-Ukrainians who want independence?

Hope Obama calls Putin on this, puts Putin in a situation where he's got to either stand by these bastards and own them, or disavow them and let them be taken down by an international coalition on charges of mass murder and war crimes.

[ July 17, 2014, 05:22 PM: Message edited by: Jack Squat ]

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Jack Squat
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In response to the title, this is conspiracy AND mistaken identity.


These cossack mercenaries posing as Ukranian separatists are clearly reporting to Russia since that's where they sent the black box. http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/the-daily-beast-mh17-black-box-sent-to-moscow-for-investigation-356554.html

I look forward to the "separatists'" explanation of how they obtained and why they needed a ground-to-air missile capable of taking out a 747 flying 10 kilometers above the ground.

Clearly this is a conspiracy between Russia and its agents to scare europe into acknowledging changes in the rules as to who owns what airspace. Clearly they prepared to take out a passenger plane. But I don't think they meant to take out a Malasian plane, to turn this into a global incident.

[ July 17, 2014, 05:28 PM: Message edited by: Jack Squat ]

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Mynnion
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I have a hard time believing Putin is anything but furious on this. He really doesn't need any more negative press and this time it won't be just international. I am guessing a lot of Russians are asking questions about this also.
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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by Mynnion:
I have a hard time believing Putin is anything but furious on this. He really doesn't need any more negative press and this time it won't be just international. I am guessing a lot of Russians are asking questions about this also.

I have a hard time believing that Lord Pooter is anything but upset over what has been occuring. He has achieved his primary victory criteria (annexation and holding of the Crimea, maintaining power, minimal economic damage). There is enough doubt as to the identity of the personnel who shot down the plane, and who they answer to, that Pooter can spin the matter any way he chooses, especially inside Russia.

Lord Pooter is like Edward I Longshanks from "Braveheart". He sees the good in any situation.

Pooter has everything he could ever want. Not only will he maintain control over the Crimea, but his actions have stirred up nationalist feeling in the Ukraine, and reinterested European expansion of NATO to the east. The more NATO expands and builds up, the more Pooter can consolidate his power and build up his military.

Like moths, we bask in the glory of his incandescence, with immolation our destiny.

Pooter makes Tywin Lannister look like a chump.

[ July 17, 2014, 08:17 PM: Message edited by: Grant ]

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Pete at Home
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quote:
Originally posted by Mynnion:
I have a hard time believing Putin is anything but furious on this. He really doesn't need any more negative press and this time it won't be just international. I am guessing a lot of Russians are asking questions about this also.

He may be mad now, but he'll win this. How.can he lose?

China will back him, just.to.spank Malasia over South China Sea issues.

The US and EU will bluster but no.one wants war.

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AI Wessex
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He finally let it get out of control. The velvet fist can't stop the world from reacting. I think finally Obama (who is being *blamed* by Republicans for the jet being shot down) will finally have a clear-cut international victory. I don't view that as a matter of ego or partisanship, just that even the idiotic GOP will be cowed into supporting him on this and perhaps will give him enough domestic credibility that they won't undercut his foreign policy. FOX and Limbaugh are making every effort to make him look like a fool, but this may be where they get their comeuppance.
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TomDavidson
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quote:
I don't view that as a matter of ego or partisanship, just that even the idiotic GOP will be cowed into supporting him on this and perhaps will give him enough domestic credibility that they won't undercut his foreign policy.
Man, I never pegged you for a dewy-eyed idealist.
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Seneca
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Obama has made us into a paper tiger. He supports our enemies and criticizes our allies and by the end of his term more people will under the rule of Islamo-nazi regimes than when he first took office.
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Jack Squat
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Don't know how Obama could be held to blame for this.

I wonder how Russia would react if the Netherlands, Malasia, Indonesia, Australia and the UK (the major countries whose citizens were murdered in the strike) were to declare war on the Donetsk People's Republic.

After thinking about the dialog that LetterRip linked to, I think it's staged. I think they intentionally shot down a passenger plane in order to force the world to respect their authority and airspace.

We need to get condemnations resolutions and demands into the UN, so that Russia will expose itself with a veto.

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Seneca
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Obama isn't to blame for the plane, but he is to blame for our loss of soft and hard power
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AI Wessex
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Even if the dialog turns out to be authentic Russia will insist that it was staged, or failing that they will claim that the US knew about the attack before it happened (remember the all-seeing NSA?) but let it happen anyway. It's reminiscent of how people make Obama the fall guy for everything that happens at home or abroad that they don't like. Perhaps the GOP will attack him for being distracted from doing his job because they spend so much time attacking him to keep him from doing his job.
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Seneca
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Actually given the NSA's real - time interception of the Benghazi attack calls, it's highly likely they knew this attack was imminent if any telecommunications about it preceded it. With everything that's happened in the Ukraine over the last few months is there any way the NSA WASN'T listening?
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AI Wessex
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There you go.
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Jack Squat
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quote:
Originally posted by AI Wessex:
Even if the dialog turns out to be authentic Russia will insist that it was staged,

It being staged would make it worse for Russia, not better. If Cossacks intentionally shot down a passenger plane, that makes Russia look all the more evil
quote:
or failing that they will claim that the US knew about the attack before it happened (remember the all-seeing NSA?) but let it happen anyway.
That neither makes sense nor exonorates Russia.

I hope Obama ignores McCain and lets Malasia take lead on this. By all means support Malasia and Europe and advise behind the lines, but don't openly take charge.

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AI Wessex
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More seriously, there's no way that Russia comes out of this looking blameless. I don't know what the next mix of sanctions is being planned, but Putin is already squealing about them. That's good and this plane downing will strengthen the US hand and increase the solidarity among our allies in Europe to support this policy. There's no way to anticipate what Malaysia could do that would get anyone's attention, as they appear hapless in international affairs.
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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by AI Wessex:
I think finally Obama (who is being *blamed* by Republicans for the jet being shot down) will finally have a clear-cut international victory.

I'm not quite clear on this, but I havn't been watching the news or following this closely.

How is the Russians, or Russian backed partisans, shooting down a passenger plane a victory for President Obama?

I love too the phrasing. It's a victory for "Obama", not a victory for "America", or "us", or "the Ukrainian nationalists", or "truth, justice, and apple pie". It's a victory for "Obama".

Apparently the real war is between President Obama and the Republican party and their mouthpieces. It's not between the Ukraine and Russia, or President Obama and Lord Pooter. The REAL enemy are those pesky Republicans.

quote:
I don't view that as a matter of ego or partisanship, just that even the idiotic GOP will be cowed into supporting him on this and perhaps will give him enough domestic credibility that they won't undercut his foreign policy.
So happy we have moved beyond calling political opponents idiots. It truely helps.
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Seneca
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From what I've read, this was a modern missile system that originated in Russia. Clearly Putin wanted these guys to ha e this tech and he could have retrieved it if he wanted to.
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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by Seneca:
From what I've read, this was a modern missile system that originated in Russia. Clearly Putin wanted these guys to ha e this tech and he could have retrieved it if he wanted to.

I'm sure that Lord Pooter did not give instructions, to whatever trigger happy fire control officer prematurely lit his candle, to shoot down passenger planes on their way to Kuala Lumpur (sp). And he's going to be stating that quite clearly over and over.

I'm not even sure he's admitting that the missles were from Russia.

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AI Wessex
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quote:
Originally posted by Grant:
quote:
Originally posted by AI Wessex:
I think finally Obama (who is being *blamed* by Republicans for the jet being shot down) will finally have a clear-cut international victory.

I'm not quite clear on this, but I havn't been watching the news or following this closely.

How is the Russians, or Russian backed partisans, shooting down a passenger plane a victory for President Obama?

I love too the phrasing. It's a victory for "Obama", not a victory for "America", or "us", or "the Ukrainian nationalists", or "truth, justice, and apple pie". It's a victory for "Obama".

Apparently the real war is between President Obama and the Republican party and their mouthpieces. It's not between the Ukraine and Russia, or President Obama and Lord Pooter. The REAL enemy are those pesky Republicans.

quote:
I don't view that as a matter of ego or partisanship, just that even the idiotic GOP will be cowed into supporting him on this and perhaps will give him enough domestic credibility that they won't undercut his foreign policy.
So happy we have moved beyond calling political opponents idiots. It truely helps.

It's a victory for Obama in the sense that he may get a little breathing room to carry out foreign policy that benefits *America*. The shooting down does not in itself benefit us or anyone.

Yes, it's a war between Obama and the GOP, since the "loyal opposition" puts opposition ahead of loyalty. That has been pointed out by many posters here numerous times.

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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by AI Wessex:
It's a victory for Obama in the sense that he may get a little breathing room to carry out foreign policy that benefits *America*. The shooting down does not in itself benefit us or anyone.

I take it then that President Obama has yet been able to carry out foreign policy that benefits "Amurica" because of Republicans in congress and on Fox News. Interesting.

quote:
Yes, it's a war between Obama and the GOP, since the "loyal opposition" puts opposition ahead of loyalty.
Oh, I have no doubt of that. Though I do find is somehwat ironic.
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Grant
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Anybody seen that reset button?
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Greg Davidson
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quote:
Obama isn't to blame for the plane, but he is to blame for our loss of soft and hard power
Why do you think he is to blame? Wouldn't those who started the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have more to do with our loss of soft and hard power?

I heard somewhere (can't vouch for this) that Obama's foreign policy mantra right now if "Don't do dumb sh-t", which actually is a significant improvement over the previous Administration or the recommendations of most critics of President Obama.

Some questions for anyone who thinks he has been the cause of our loss of soft and hard power: should we have tried to keep the same level of troops in Iraq or Afghanistan as when he came into office? What other countries should we have taken military action against?

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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by Greg Davidson:

I heard somewhere (can't vouch for this) that Obama's foreign policy mantra right now if "Don't do dumb sh-t", which actually is a significant improvement over the previous Administration or the recommendations of most critics of President Obama.

And like that, President Obama steps into the sunlit valhalla where all great foreign policy Presidents go.

The Monroe Doctrine
The Truman Doctrine
The Bush Doctrine parts I and II
and now...
The Obama Doctrine


"DONT DO STUPID SH*T"

Wow. I'm flabbergasted. I'm awed. Only a genius level intellect can even grasp it, which is probably why I can't.

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AI Wessex
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Like marketing a product, 50% of what you do in foreign policy is wasted. It's virtually impossible to measure the results to figure out which those bits were, but I'll opine that overt foreign policy initiatives (e.g., invasion, assassination, funding or supplying weapons to insurrectionary or revolutionary forces) generally fall into the counter-productive or wasted bucket.
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AI Wessex
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The backlash is beginning. I think it won't fade away before it gets a lot worse:
quote:
The President has stubbornly refused to even suggest that the rebel leaders share part of the blame in the disaster.

At some point on Thursday evening, just after Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 blew apart over some wheat field in eastern Ukraine, Vladimir Putin had a chance to take stock of his options. There were essentially two. The Russian President could stand behind the rebel fighters in eastern Ukraine, even as suspicion grew that they were responsible for shooting the airliner down, and risk implicating Russia in the tragedy and deepening the Kremlin’s conflict with Ukraine and with the West. The other option, a familiar one for Putin, would be to use the senseless loss of life as an opportunity to shift toward reconciliation.
...
Instead of the displays of empathy he showed after the crash of the Polish plane four years ago, Putin immediately began casting blame on Ukraine and shielding the rebels from criticism. Some observers have suggested that this was a kneejerk reaction rather than a well-considered choice. “The Kremlin will, for all its immediate and instinctive bluster and spin, have to definitively and overtly withdraw from arming and protecting the rebels,” wrote Mark Galleoti, a prominent Russia expert and professor at New York University. “I suspect that when the histories are written, this will be deemed the day the insurgency lost. Or at least began to lose.”


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Jack Squat
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quote:
The President has stubbornly refused to even suggest that the rebel leaders share part of the blame in the disaster.
Better would be to refuse to acknowledge that actual "rebel" leaders exist. they are Putin stooges.

quote:
Instead of the displays of empathy he showed after the crash of the Polish plane four years ago, Putin immediately began casting blame on Ukraine and shielding the rebels from criticism. Some observers have suggested that this was a kneejerk reaction rather than a well-considered choice. “The Kremlin will, for all its immediate and instinctive bluster and spin, have to definitively and overtly withdraw from arming and protecting the rebels,” wrote Mark Galleoti, a prominent Russia expert and professor at New York University. “I suspect that when the histories are written, this will be deemed the day the insurgency lost. Or at least began to lose.”
Whether it's a knee jerk reaction or a calculated choice, it's a winning move, since it will prove that the world ommunity lacks the will to stop Putin hitlering across europe. Fortunately Putin has no intent of hitlering across all of Europe, but if he did, there would be no will to stop him. His anti-Jewish and anti-gay measures likewise fall considerably short of "final solution" proportions, thank heavens, because if he did carry those out, even on utube, no one would stop him.

Thank God that Hitler faced a better generation than ours.

[ July 19, 2014, 10:45 AM: Message edited by: Jack Squat ]

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Seneca
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quote:
Originally posted by Greg Davidson:
quote:
Obama isn't to blame for the plane, but he is to blame for our loss of soft and hard power
Why do you think he is to blame? Wouldn't those who started the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have more to do with our loss of soft and hard power?

I heard somewhere (can't vouch for this) that Obama's foreign policy mantra right now if "Don't do dumb sh-t", which actually is a significant improvement over the previous Administration or the recommendations of most critics of President Obama.

Some questions for anyone who thinks he has been the cause of our loss of soft and hard power: should we have tried to keep the same level of troops in Iraq or Afghanistan as when he came into office? What other countries should we have taken military action against?

You can argue all you want that people inherit messes. Firemen do too. Ever seen a fireman pour gasoline on one of his 'inherited messes?'

The results under Obama are clear. By the end of his time in office more people will be living under tyranny and Islamist oppression than when he began. He has turned his back on our allies while emboldening and strengthening our enemies. We are no longer feared because our enemies know that Obama won't go to war unless the US is directly attacked, and maybe not even then if it can be spun as a rogue terrorist attack.

Under Obama, the US is creating a partial vacuum on the world stage and now every tinpot Islamo-nazi and 2nd rate power like Russia and China are moving to fill it. It's sad.

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Greg Davidson
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quote:
The results under Obama are clear. By the end of his time in office more people will be living under tyranny and Islamist oppression than when he began. He has turned his back on our allies while emboldening and strengthening our enemies. We are no longer feared because our enemies know that Obama won't go to war unless the US is directly attacked, and maybe not even then if it can be spun as a rogue terrorist attack.
Things suck right now internationally. They did before also. Your assertion is both that things suck much worse now and the primary root cause is the actions of President Obama.

I'd like to see the basis of why you think things suck worse now (it's not because more people are being killed world-wide in conflicts each year, it's not because more Americans are being killed each year, so what is your measurement?).

Next, to the degree that there has been a growth in some adverse conditions abroad, I assert that the two major root causes are the economic collapse of 2008 and climate change. As with the Great Depression in the 1930's, world-wide economic problems tend to create an environment that is conducive to military extremism. As for climate change, one of the triggers for conflict in Syria was one of the worst droughts in modern history that essentially uprooted almost the entire agrarian population and made them refugees in big cities (link). Other examples of this resource-based hypothesis for being a root cause of conflict include the Sub-Sahara region with the worst desertification a decade ago, also know as Darfur, and the central African nation with the greatest resource over-subscription two decades ago, also known as Rwanda.

And if your "no longer feared" thing were real, then the fact that Obama had taken out Osama bin Laden and vastly more members of Al Qaida through drone attacks would also be evidence that he would be much more feared in terrorist circles - how do you explain the contradiction between you think he's being less feared because he doesn't attack as many new countries as Bush/Cheney, but he's not more feared for taking out actual terrorists?

[ July 19, 2014, 12:19 PM: Message edited by: Greg Davidson ]

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LetterRip
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Jack Squat, the link wasn't mine.
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AI Wessex
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quote:
You can argue all you want that people inherit messes. Firemen do too. Ever seen a fireman pour gasoline on one of his 'inherited messes?'
Ever see a fireman rush into a burning building carrying the front end of a hose only to find that the guys controlling the hydrant are just giving him a trickle of pressure because they think he uses too much water?
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TomDavidson
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quote:
By the end of his time in office more people will be living under tyranny and Islamist oppression than when he began.
Isn't this true of every president in our lifetime, except possibly Clinton?
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Grant
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quote:
Originally posted by Jack Squat:

Thank God that Hitler faced a better generation than ours.

You're referring to lend-lease? Economic sanctions of the Japanese? Aid to China like the 1st AVG?

Because America did NOT want to go to war with the the Axis before Pearl Harbor. If not for Pearl Harbor, the United States would probably not have entered the war as a combatant.

I imagine that when Lord Pooter, or Al-Assad, or Iran, decide to nuke Fort Hood or Fort Brag, that the United States might get a little bit more involved. Short of that, look for more economic sanctions.

Lord Pooter has been running his thugs into the Ukraine and trying to steal the country a piece at a time since last year. Most people seemed to believe we shouldn't get involved. It wasn't until a passenger liner full of innocent people got blown up that people started to lose their mind.

The proposed course of action now? More sanctions. More military aide. Basically, more of what we're already doing. Nothing's changed.

Things have reverted to baseline. The change took place between 1945 and 2003, when the United States DID start entering or starting wars without being directly attacked. That time is now over.

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philnotfil
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quote:
Originally posted by Seneca:
We are no longer feared because our enemies know that Obama won't go to war unless the US is directly attacked, and maybe not even then if it can be spun as a rogue terrorist attack.

Why should we go to war when we are not being attacked?

quote:
Under Obama, the US is creating a partial vacuum on the world stage and now every tinpot Islamo-nazi and 2nd rate power like Russia and China are moving to fill it. It's sad.
Not our circus, not our monkeys. Let's fix America before we go breaking other countries.
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AI Wessex
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We are not a modern reinvention of the Roman Empire that controls the known world with our better military establishment and more refined understanding of governance. We weren't a global military power before WWI or WWII, either, but saw our "interests" threatened through the destabilization caused by the warring European nations. Coming out of WWII we were the only plausible global authority who could step into the vacuum that those wars' destruction caused, and we took advantage of that position. IMO, that was an aberration of our supposed destiny, but we almost had no choice about it, as otherwise what we call modern Europe might not exist today.

There were many complicating factors that drew us into both world wars. One could argue that we would have been forced to join both of them sooner or later by encroachment on our independent status (the famous WWI Zimmerman telegram (Barbara Tuchman wrote a whole book about it) and Pearl Harbor, or that domestic political or commercial/economic interests would have weakened the sitting US President if he hadn't committed us to both. We went to war because of inevitability rather than a real threat.

The question now is whether instability leading to region-wide regime change creates a new existential threat or significantly alters the political/economic climate inside our country. I don't see either. Instead it looks to me like the entire Arab world is undergoing a massive internal implosion where rival religious and ethnic factions in almost every country are trying to destroy their civil infrastructures in order to remake them in their own image.

It will be bloody with carnage and "human rights violations" on a massive scale. But it doesn't seriously threaten our well-being because the actors are not international aggressors. Maybe decades in the future after the new order has been established in the region they will begin to look outward, but we (and China, India and Russia) will have also prepared. For now, they can hurt us directly or indirectly, but they can't threaten our existence or our way of life. Any physical harm they do us we can do to them a thousand times worse.

In reality, the harm we do ourselves because of them is greater than any they do to us. I'd say that 9/11 seriously damaged our economy but the greater damage was to turn us in to a fractious society whose divisions were greatly exacerbated by our own incompetent responses to the event. I doubt OBL had that in mind, but maybe he was even smart enough to see that result coming, and we weren't. We need to avoid the same kind of implosion the Mideast is going through for our own survival. I think we will, but you can hear the voices (even on this forum) arguing for that kind of self-destructive "solution" to "fix" our internal problems.

The 20th Century history of our involvement in the Mideast revolves around just one thing, oil. Even our support of Israel is largely based on their ability to anchor western influence in the region -- "Nations have no friends, only interests". I heard a report on the radio yesterday that the US is now the leading oil exporting country in the world. Our dependence on Mideast oil is diminishing; Saudi Arabia is cutting production even as the global economy recovers from the 2008 debacle.

We don't need oil from OPEC as much as before, and Russia is increasing its export capabilities. The world isn't ready to tell the Mideast oil producers to kiss off, but political stability and oil production in those countries are no longer as tightly linked as they were before. I think the world will send a message to the unstable countries in the Mideast that we will stay out of their internal (and semi-local cross-border) conflicts and even help arm all sides -- as long as the oil tankers keep moving.

As for Russia, Putin has exposed the shallow objectives of their international positioning. The country is looking more and more like a 3rd world oil supplier trying to recapture past glory through imperialist delusions of grandeur. I think the world will take the opposite tack with Putin and tell him that Russian oil (and gas) will be less welcome *unless* they become a better global political and diplomatic actor. In other words, stop your aggression in Ukraine and act like a 3rd world oil nation to keep the pipelines flowing.

It's simultaneously commonplace and naive to claim that the world is more dangerous than ever. It always has been and always will be. How the danger manifests will change with technologies and alliances/enmities. The true hallmark of our greatness as a nation will be determined by our ability to help other countries reach for the same cultural harmony we have always prized but even ourselves have never achieved. But we have to recognize that it's not under our control whether they choose to aim for the same things.

[ July 20, 2014, 10:28 AM: Message edited by: AI Wessex ]

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Seneca
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quote:
It will be bloody with carnage and "human rights violations" on a massive scale. But it doesn't seriously threaten our well-being because the actors are not international aggressors
As long as there are people who believe that nonsense in sufficient numbers, then you can expect a nuclear or biological attack from these Islamist terrorists within the next 5 to 15 years. Say goodbye to NYC, LA, Dallas, etc.
Given how porous our borders are and how few of the containers we inspect in our ports, this is a near-certainty. The 9-11 commission outlined what we really needed to do to a avoid this, but it seems the big brother statists in both parties could care less and want to read our emails instead.

I may be for smaller government, but by no means am I an isolationist. It is NOT ok to allow known terrorist factions to seize control of countries. It is sad that not everyone has figured this out and will likely take another attack on American soil to change that faulty perception.

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