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» The Ornery American Forum » General Comments » Bush predicted rise of ISIS and warned us not to prematurely pull out of Iraq (Page 15)

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Author Topic: Bush predicted rise of ISIS and warned us not to prematurely pull out of Iraq
noel c.
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"There's a definite methodology. I'm not surprised you can't see it though."...

Please explain it to me. Many Americans, in addition to myself, would be grateful for an outside's clarification on a issue that has eluded us all for six years.

"That would be the snafu. I'm not sure what would happen if Assad used chemical weapons against ISIS. It's hard to predict how someone would react to spectacular stupidity."...

What? Your postulated "methodology" does not help you out here?

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noel c.
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Oh heck, why keep you in suspense; Barry wouldn't do a damn thing.

Inaction is his "methodology".

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NobleHunter
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Succintly put: don't stick your junk in a meat grinder.

Except he's already in the midst of doing something or will be soon.

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noel c.
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"Succintly put: don't stick your junk in a meat grinder.

Except he's already in the midst of doing something or will be soon."...

So he is not, but he is.

If that is not a prescription for personal injury, what is? Who would use their "junk" as an exploratory probe except someone unfocused upon outcomes?

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NobleHunter
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That's why your definition of his methodology is incorrect. Obama does do things, just not the things you think he should.

I suspect the intervention against ISIS will be more like Libya than Afganistan or Iraq I and II. Blow a bunch of stuff up and let local forces fill the ensuing void. Don't get tangled up and don't commit yourself unnecessarily.

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noel c.
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"I suspect the intervention against ISIS will be more like Libya than Afganistan or Iraq I and II. Blow a bunch of stuff up and let local forces fill the ensuing void."...

NH, everyone sees that. It is not a "strategy", it is a formula for frustrating allies, and boosting ISIS enrollment.

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NobleHunter
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What allies? Assad's a tyrant, the Iraqis are incompetent, and the Iranians can hardly be called friendly. ISIS will get recruits only while they are successful; how many recruits did Gaddafi get while the rebels were closing on Tunis?
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noel c.
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Are you kidding me?

NATO member support is tepid, at best, and Israel is just shaking its head at Barry's incompetence. When the names of countries like Iran, and Syria are floated as potential partners you know something is wrong.

Of all possible participants, France makes a showing? Could the situation get much worse in as short a time?

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AI Wessex
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The "tepid" support for taking direct action is coming from virtually all directions. It's not Obama's fault, nor is it America's problem. It seems the world at large wants the region to resolve its own issues with extremism. In the meantime they will give tactical air support and strengthen their internal security.
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noel c.
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"I think we're looking at kind of a 30-year war... (Barry) created a vacuum in terms of the ability of that country to better protect itself, and it's out of that vacuum that ISIS began to breed."

Leon Panetta

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2014/10/06/leon-panetta-memoir-worthy-fights/16737615/

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AI Wessex
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Interesting that you insert "Barry" in your carefully clipped message. It will be interesting to see if Panetta starts to push back on guffawing conservatives who are leaping in to amplify his criticism. I would have to read the book before I could comment on what it says. You should probably do the same.
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noel c.
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I doubt the excerpts begin to look better by reading unrelated material, any more than the Gates memoir extracts did... but have at it Al. [Wink]
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AI Wessex
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Seriously, Noel, you might want to read the book before you quote from it authoritatively. Who knows, maybe you're not getting the full picture.
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noel c.
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Your complaint would be better registered with that bastion of conservative antagonists CBS News (and USA Today).

One would think Panetta might make a correction if he thought it was merited.

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AI Wessex
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That wasn't a complaint, but a suggestion so you would have a more balanced view than you can get by just standing on one (your right) foot. If you don't have that kind of attention span you might want to listen to the NPR interview with Panetta this morning. He doesn't temper his criticism but does offer a wider view in which to consider those sorts of comments.
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noel c.
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http://www.npr.org/2014/10/07/354230874/fight-against-terror-will-be-a-long-sustained-war-panetta-says

What "wider view" would you like me to derive from this? I have been saying the conflict in the Middle East, and Iraq's democraticization, was a generational proposition all along.

Islam thinks in terms of centuries, not weeks or months. Barry is the one that insisted on a time-line for full troop withdrawal.

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noel c.
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... And continues to assert no "need" for "boots on the ground". He was wrong then, and is wrong now... so wrong, in fact, that the only reliable native combatents who can be counted upon to fight with us are now on the precipice of being massacred by the ISIS advance north.

http://m.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29517493

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AI Wessex
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Opinions differ on these things, no?

*I* predicted a multi-generational war would happen if we invaded Iraq in 2003, so *I* was right all along. Bush was wrong, Obama (may have been) wrong, and you were wrong. In Bush's case because he thought he had won the war, in Obama's case because he thought Iraq was capable of and should be responsible for their own internal affairs, and in your case because you have a one-dimensional view of the world and never seem able to admit you are wrong, which makes your track record no better than random.

Obama's attempts to avert an ISIS-type outcome were unsuccessful. It's critical that our leaders see both the present and the future accurately when they make plans, but it's somehow overlooked by naysayers and Monday morning quarterbacks that we're not always the primary actors in every situation. For instance, Iraq is a sovereign nation. Should we have combat troops there permanently? Under what legal pretext would we do that? How about Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria or any other country that contains elements among its population that we don't approve of? In another thread people are implying that we should wipe out Islam altogether because it doesn't "live up to" our American standards. We can dish out the haughty criticism but don't seem remotely able to take it ourselves. How about we sell them an online educational program on family values?

How much of the world should we treat as US colonial territories until they choose of their own free will to govern themselves the way we want them to?

You'll note that Panetta specifically said in the NPR interview that he doesn't know if Obama had succeeded in keeping the small contingent of "advisors" he was negotiating with whether that would have prevented ISIS from emerging. He *opines* that Iraq would have been better prepared to deal with them, but he *also* acknowledges that there are plenty of other similar groups in Iraq and that Maliki is the person responsible for the disaffection of Sunni's in Iraq and continued terrorism and sectarianism.

If you think of yourself as being able to see all sides of this issue (and all others), how come you don't understand these things?

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noel c.
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"... and in your case because you have a one-dimensional view of the world and never seem able to admit you are wrong, which makes your track record no better than random."...

Elaborate on this, I cannot see a logic chain in your reasoning.

"Should we have combat troops there permanently? Under what legal pretext would we do that? How about Afghanistan, Pakistan, Syria or any other country... ?"...

How long should we have troops in Germany, Japan, or Korea?

"How about we sell them an online educational program on family values?"...

No, just kill combatant "believers" who interpret the Koran as it is written, and was implemented by Mohammed.

"You'll note that Panetta specifically said in the NPR interview that he doesn't know if Obama had succeeded in keeping the small contingent of 'advisors' he was negotiating with whether that would have prevented ISIS from emerging. He *opines* that Iraq would have been better prepared to deal with them, but he *also* acknowledges that there are plenty of other similar groups in Iraq and that Maliki is the person responsible for the disaffection of Sunni's in Iraq and continued terrorism and sectarianism."...

You will note that Panetta also "opines" that Al-Maliki was emboldened to antagonize non-Shiites as a consequence of our withdrawal.

We are "there now". Who's "fault" is that, and how did it happen?

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AI Wessex
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quote:
"... and in your case because you have a one-dimensional view of the world and never seem able to admit you are wrong, which makes your track record no better than random."...

Elaborate on this, I cannot see a logic chain in your reasoning.

I should have said that your track record is worse than random, since random implies an even chance. IMO, the opinions and predictions you make are so strongly colored by a committed view that doesn't match the reality I see that you are wrong more often than an objective observer. But the key is the committed view that I mention. For instance, your negative attitude about Obama, stretching all the way back to his childhood and your armchair psychoanalysis of his relationship with his father leads you to distort the meanings and motivations behind his actions today. I hesitate to say that your overall view of him merely is partisan because it matches the extreme rhetoric of the GOP and conservative talking heads who actively oppose him. Those people are engaging in the game of politics, but I think you really believe what they say more than they do and have even elaborated positions that go beyond theirs.
quote:
How long should we have troops in Germany, Japan, or Korea?

In what way(s) are those situations analogous with Iraq? Please elaborate.
quote:
No, just kill combatant "believers" who interpret the Koran as it is written, and was implemented by Mohammed.
See my comment about your extreme views above. I'll note that there are extremists in Islam who feel the same way about people who believe as you do.
quote:
You will note that Panetta also "opines" that Al-Maliki was emboldened to antagonize non-Shiites as a consequence of our withdrawal.
Who is responsible for Maliki's behavior? Should we have stayed in Iraq to govern the country's governors?
quote:
We are "there now". Who's "fault" is that, and how did it happen?
If you "know" the answers, perhaps you can provide them.
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noel c.
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"... the opinions and predictions you make are so strongly colored by a committed view that doesn't match the reality I see... "...

Should that concern me?

"For instance, your negative attitude about Obama, stretching all the way back to his childhood... "...

Barry's difficulty in listening to advisors, Panetta included, seems to have vindicated my view thoroughly.

"In what way(s) are those situations analogous with Iraq? Please elaborate."...

Sure, these are all examples of totalitarian ideologies that took root is the soil of native militarism, requiring a long-term commitment to defeat, and enculturate western values, through U.S. military counter-force.

"See my comment about your extreme views above. I'll note that there are extremists in Islam who feel the same way about people who believe as you do."...

You are drawing moral equivalence between our military opposition to islamic fundamentalism, and Koranic imperatives?

"Who is responsible for Maliki's behavior? Should we have stayed in Iraq to govern the country's governors?"...

Yup.

In the alternative, you can assume responsibility for the consequences.

"If you 'know' the answers, perhaps you can provide them."...

Okay, we are there now because the mid-term election is less than 30 days away, and Americans are screaming bloody murder at the effete approach of democratic leadership.

I think Barry has already written-off the senate, and resolved to follow the path he always does when confronted by effective opposition... run to his liberal base for self-affirmation.

I predict that the balance of his tenure will see ISIS establish a defacto "Islamic State" that we will be at war with for generations.

[ October 07, 2014, 01:55 PM: Message edited by: noel c. ]

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kmbboots
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quote:
Originally posted by Seneca:
quote:
Originally posted by Grant:
quote:
Originally posted by AI Wessex:
Yes, the Monday morning quarterbacking will lead to many concussions.

There were plenty of assistant coaches that were apparently saying this stuff on Thursday and Friday.
To flesh this point out, we now know Obama missed over 40% of his daily intelligence briefings. Congress has now demanded to see the contents of those briefings to see if Obama is lying that his agencies did not foresee the rise of ISIS and try to warn him.

Given how old these are I think we can all agree that if Obama claims executive privilege for these briefings that he didn't even care to look at and attend, them we know he is lying.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/the-bogus-claim-that-obama-skips-his-intelligence-briefings/2012/09/23/100cb63e-04fc-11e2-8102-ebee9c66e190_blog.html
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noel c.
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Kmbboots,

Barry's demand for "written" briefings is a device that facilitates plausable deniability. He can say (as he has); "Nobody told me that!"

The dog probably ate his homework in second grade too.

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AI Wessex
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quote:
Barry's difficulty in listening to advisors, Panetta included, seems to have vindicated my view thoroughly.
His so-called difficulty only matters when it suits you.
quote:
I predict that the balance of his tenure will see ISIS establish a defacto "Islamic State" that we will be at war with for generations.
Which I predicted back in 2002. So I guess I was right all along and you are only just coming to realize it.
quote:
Sure, these are all examples of totalitarian ideologies that took root is the soil of native militarism, requiring a long-term commitment to defeat, and enculturate western values, through U.S. military counter-force.
No, look at your history book again. That's not the critical difference. I'll wait.

[ October 07, 2014, 02:07 PM: Message edited by: AI Wessex ]

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noel c.
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"Which I predicted back in 2002. So I guess I was right all along and you are only just coming to realize it."...

You predicted Barry would screw things up in 2002?

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AI Wessex
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quote:
Originally posted by noel c.:
"Which I predicted back in 2002. So I guess I was right all along and you are only just coming to realize it."...

You predicted Barry would screw things up in 2002?

No, as I have already said, I predicted that starting a war would lead to this inevitable result. By about early 2004 I also predicted that people like you would turn up as soon as a Democrat was elected to try to clean up the mess Bush created screaming that the Democrats were responsible for Bush's failures. You satisfy all the unfortunate aspects of that expectation, even to the point of completely disrespecting that Democrat because he's not a militarist cowboy.
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noel c.
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"No, look at your history book again. That's not the critical difference."...

It is going to be necessary for you to supply your own "critical difference" Al. I cannot make your argument for you (as much as that would improve your chances of making a valid point).

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AI Wessex
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Noel, I can't be responsible for your lack of understanding of modern history. Please, either figure it out or drop out of the discussion. I'm done talking to you about this until you do that.
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noel c.
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"You satisfy all the unfortunate aspects of that expectation, even to the point of completely disrespecting that Democrat because he's not a militarist cowboy."...

Are you including Panetta in that "militarist cowboy" perjorative?

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AI Wessex
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Think about the answer to your own question. When you have one, we can talk about it.
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noel c.
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Done! The answer is that military opposition to islamic fundamentalism is not "cowboy" by any interpretation I can imply from the word "cowboy".

Your turn Al; has Panetta reverted party affiliation to republican?

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TomDavidson
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Your answer to "is Al including Panetta in that 'militarist cowboy" perjorative" is that military opposition to Islamic fundamentalism is not "cowboy?"

How is that not a non sequitur?

--------

As a side note: the CIA is currently doing everything it can to undermine Obama. This has been obvious for some time now.

[ October 07, 2014, 03:34 PM: Message edited by: TomDavidson ]

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noel c.
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"Your answer to 'is Al including Panetta in that "militarist cowboy" perjorative' is that military opposition to Islamic fundamentalism is not 'cowboy?'

How is that not a non sequitur?"...

I think you are asking "how is it a non-sequitur", correct? I'll bite Tom.

"As a side note: the CIA is currently doing everything it can to undermine Obama. This has been obvious for some time now."...

Is this a conclusion reached due to two of Barry's CIA Director appointments turning on him when they left government employment?

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TomDavidson
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quote:
I think you are asking "how is it a non-sequitur", correct?
No. I am making the assumption that you did not intend for it to be a non sequitur, and therefore asking why you think what you said answers the question you asked Al.

quote:

Is this a conclusion reached due to two of Barry's CIA Director appointments turning on him when they left government employment?

No, although I think that it would be useful to keep it in mind whenever anyone holding a leadership position in the CIA discusses the Obama presidency. He's been fighting them since his election.
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noel c.
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"I am... asking why you think what you said answers the question you asked Al."...

What I said challenges the implicit assertion that U.S. military action, against eruptions of Islamic fumdamentalism, is dismissable as "cow-boyish"... unless of course one is willing to lump major ex-players in Barry's administration into that cartoonish characterization.

"No, although I think that it would be useful to keep it in mind whenever anyone holding a leadership position in the CIA discusses the Obama presidency. He's been fighting them since his election."...

So, why does Barry continually find himself at odds with the intelligence community... even when he appointments them?

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AI Wessex
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I have to point out again that I find it difficult to even talk to you when you call Obama by his long-abandoned boyhood nickname. Every time you explain why you do it it lowers my ability to take you seriously even further. Do you have a pet name from your childhood that we can use when we talk to you? Would you be ok if I call you Snoopy or Dick? I feel like it sometimes.

Ai: Please see your email. -OrneryMod

[ October 10, 2014, 06:21 PM: Message edited by: OrneryMod ]

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noel c.
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Just watched a Panetta interview with O'Rielly.

Barry's got more than a PR problem at this point.

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Seneca
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[LOL] [LOL] [LOL] [LOL]

Accusations that Obama is using different parts of the government to go after his political opponents are derided as "baseless accusations" and "paranoid conspiracy mongering" but we are expected to believe the CIA is out to get Obama?

[LOL]

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TomDavidson
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Why do you find that unlikely, Seneca? I think it's perfectly consistent with observed reality.
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Seneca
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Guess who else is "out to get Obama?"

Jimmy Carter.

Carter.
Clinton.
Panetta.
Gates.

Clearly it's a Republican-CIA conspiracy to get Obama!

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