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Author Topic: Decimation of U.S. Naval capability
TomDavidson
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What is this "concession," noel? Rather, I am pointing out that there is a sufficient number of people capable of recognizing an EMP event if and when it occurs, and more than a few who'd immediately attribute it to a hostile power. Some would no doubt be confused, but it's not like the affected regions would just be sitting around, going "Huh. All electric stuff is borked. Guess we'll just start shooting each other now, since the Lectric Elves have abandoned us."
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TomDavidson
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quote:
In the banking industry in particular, for every regulation repealed there were at least a dozen new ones, for every substantive easement there were at least 3 substantive tightenings (and some of them were absolute bears). All numbers made up by me, but complete low balls that there is zero chance were not true.
Seriati, it seems to me that you're going to have to accept the made-up numbers in the Planned Parenthood thread if you expect those of us who've actually been watching the crime-a-minute behavior of modern banks to accept your "zero chance" assertion. And even then, we probably won't. [Smile]
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noel c.
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Tom,

"What is this 'concession,' noel? "...

Well, you answered my post, so you are among those in our population that can read your own name ( I don't know how well NH will take that).

Apparently you would recognize an E1 pulse without visual confirmation of a high altitude nuclear blast.

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DonaldD
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quote:
Originally posted by noel c.:
... And told the rest of us when, and how?

How exactly would that question be relevant to the military chain of command making the decision to drop nuclear warheads on Iran - a decision that would probably be made prior to the hypothetical EMP actually exploding, anyway?

Do you think that decision would be put to a poll of the general population? If so, would it be run by Gallup or Rasmussen, and would it be an online poll or would they go door-to-door, given the EMP and all?

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noel c.
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Donald,

"How exactly would that question be relevant to the military chain of command making the decision to drop nuclear warheads on Iran - a decision that would probably be made prior to the hypothetical EMP actually exploding, anyway? "...

Donald, in the United States the military chain of command does not make those decisions, and we are discussing the general citizenry in any event.

"Do you think that decision would be put to a poll of the general population? If so, would it be run by Gallup or Rasmussen, and would it be an online poll or would they go door-to-door, given the EMP and all? "...

Is that how they do things in Canada?

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TomDavidson
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quote:
Donald, in the United States the military chain of command does not make those decisions...
It does, actually. If they can't reach the civilian government, the military is empowered to launch. In no case is anyone talking about "general citizens" deciding to bomb Iran; no one is going to stop to ask them.
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noel c.
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Tom,

"It does, actually. If they can't reach the president, the military is empowered to launch. "...

For an EMP? No Tom, you are nuts.

"In no case is anyone talking about 'general citizens' deciding to bomb Iran; no one is going to stop to ask them. "...

Are you having a senior moment. Who even suggested that?

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Seriati
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quote:
Originally posted by TomDavidson:
quote:
In the banking industry in particular, for every regulation repealed there were at least a dozen new ones, for every substantive easement there were at least 3 substantive tightenings (and some of them were absolute bears). All numbers made up by me, but complete low balls that there is zero chance were not true.
Seriati, it seems to me that you're going to have to accept the made-up numbers in the Planned Parenthood thread if you expect those of us who've actually been watching the crime-a-minute behavior of modern banks to accept your "zero chance" assertion. And even then, we probably won't. [Smile]
Tom, I don't care if you "accept" it or not. You can't debate facts. If you were knowledgeable enough on the facts, you'd already agree with me.

The only real regulatory argument is to argue that a specific regulatory change was the direct cause, it's just nonsensical to assert that there was a general reduction in regulation that caused it. I'd dispute the first argument, of course, but that's a matter of opinion where logical people could disagree (though they'd have to make a logical argument and acknowledge the uncertainty involved).

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TomDavidson
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quote:
For an EMP? No Tom, you are nuts.
noel, you seem to be operating from the assumption that the government considers EMPs to be some kind of happy, tickly, fun-time lark, like the kind of prank a bunch of toddlers would pull off.

At the same time, you are insisting it can destroy the country.

So you are asserting that the government, which otherwise adheres pretty strongly to traditional principles of MAD diplomacy, is somehow completely irrational on this point, and when faced with an attack that somehow destroys the country will say, "Welp, normally we'd bomb the hell out of those dudes, but they used waves to wipe us out. So I guess we can't."

I don't grant all of your assumptions, but your conclusion here given those assumptions seems even more unlikely.

-------

quote:
Are you having a senior moment. Who even suggested that?
"...we are discussing the general citizenry," you asserted, in response to an assertion that, no, the government would be aware of an EMP and would return fire. So I'd argue that you did, since none of us are discussing the general citizenry in that context.
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noel c.
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Tom,

Just so I understand you correctly; you believe someone other than the president can authorize a nuclear launch?

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noel c.
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" '...we are discussing the general citizenry,' you asserted, in response to... "...

... Your belief that everyone capable of reading their name would know we had an E1 burst. Come on man, get with it.

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DonaldD
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quote:
Originally posted by noel c.:
Donald, in the United States the military chain of command does not make those decisions, and we are discussing the general citizenry in any event.

noel, I thought you knew that the president, as commander in chief, is at the top of the military command structure.

Is this news to you?

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TomDavidson
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Absolutely. We have continuity of operations plans and still appoint designated survivors -- even giving them the ridiculous, stupid "football" -- for precisely that reason. If Russia were to attack and nuke D.C., killing everyone from the president down through the top levels of the cabinet, it is not the case that the country would be physically unable to respond.

Note that in an EMP scenario, the above possibility is vanishingly unlikely, and the president would almost certainly be able to be in touch with the military.

------------

quote:
Your belief that everyone capable of reading their name would know we had an E1 burst.
Interesting that you went from my ACTUAL statement to this version. Rather, I have asserted that a substantial number of people will recognize -- or even mistakenly diagnose -- when their region has been disabled by an EMP. I have not specified that they need to be able to read, have not identified that as a threshold, have not narrowed it down to any particular type of burst in particular, etc.

[ August 12, 2015, 05:02 PM: Message edited by: TomDavidson ]

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noel c.
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Tom,

"Absolutely. We have continuity of operations plans and still appoint designated survivors... "...

I will take that as a correction to your idiotic claim that if the president didn't answer his phone, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs could launch, and leave Barry a "while you were out" note.

Donald,

Pay attention to Americans on this one.

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noel c.
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Tom,

"... have not identified that as a threshold, have not narrowed it down to any particular type of burst in particular, etc. "...

Okay, I will play; What type of burst were you talking about?

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TomDavidson
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quote:
I will take that as a correction to your idiotic claim that if the president didn't answer his phone, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs could launch, and leave Barry a "while you were out" note.
This is, again, a claim I did not make. Rather, I said that if the military cannot reach the civilian government in the event of an attack against the U.S., they are authorized to launch. That's exactly the kind of thing that Continuity of Operations establishes. In fact, during some crises and at some alert levels, you could potentially have a pair of enlisted grunts sitting in a pit who would be required to launch if they didn't get a phone call within a certain window of time. That authority ultimately derives from the president, but it doesn't require his immediate attention.

---------

quote:
What type of burst were you talking about?
I honestly don't give a damn, and neither would anyone else in that scenario. E1 or E3, if we've got exploded power lines and dead cars for miles as a result of a missile attack against the U.S., we're not stopping to figure out the wavelength before launching our own missiles.

[ August 12, 2015, 05:10 PM: Message edited by: TomDavidson ]

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noel c.
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Tom,

"This is, again, a claim I did not make. Rather, I said that if the military cannot reach the civilian government... "...

Can you direct me to where you said that?

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noel c.
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... And even your most recent statement is false.
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TomDavidson
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August 12, at 4:48. That's actually what started this whole meaningless, empty diversion of yours, in fact.

But, by all means, continue to pretend that you are not hopelessly in the wrong. I think it's now pretty obvious to everyone else in this thread that you are, which is really all anyone can ask for -- since it's not like you're going to own up to it. [Smile]

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noel c.
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I see you altered your post. My quote was taken directly from you. Nice try. [Wink]
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noel c.
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And on the issue of EMP, would the average citizen (one who can read his name), be able to identify an E1 pulse?
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noel c.
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Tommy, just because you got caught lying doesn't mean I won't forgive you. Please feel free to run this length of rope to its termination.
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noel c.
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"August 12, at 4:48. That's actually what started this whole meaningless, empty diversion of yours, in fact. "...

Donald, what Tom should have told you is that control of the U.S. nuclear arsenal is *always* under the control of the president.

His belated correction, referencing the "civilian government", is also inaccurate. There is a line of succession in the event that the president is killed, or incapacitated, at which time the successor becomes acting president. In *all* cases, the military chain of command acts at the direction of the "president", who is the *civilian* authority over the *military* chain of command (not the authority *within* the military chain of command).

There are reasons Tom does not want to further discuss visible evidence of nuclear induced EMP... but we will probably not get to discuss that at this stage.

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TomDavidson
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Noel, is it your contention that the two guys in the missile silo mentioned in my earlier hypothetical were the acting president? Because while the acting president retains the ability to order a launch, the ability to do so is not exclusive to an acting president.

And re: noel's other flailing digression, yes, I believe people could also recognize an E1 pulse of sufficient size as an external attack. Most people, in fact, would almost certainly be unable to distinguish one form of mysterious power loss from another. Once it was established that even thing not directly connected to the grid were affected, the common assumption would be "EMP."

[ August 12, 2015, 06:23 PM: Message edited by: TomDavidson ]

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TomDavidson
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I should also note that my "belated correction" happened within seconds and before your post, and consisted only of the change from "president" to "civilian government," meant to head off any condescending, supercilious suggestions that I might not be aware of the concept of succession. All other fripperies and embellishments, from mentions of "Barry" to the Joint Chiefs, were your own.
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noel c.
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Tom,

"Noel, is it your contention that the two guys in the missile silo mentioned in my earlier hypothetical were the acting president? Because while the acting president retains the ability to order a launch, the ability to do so is not exclusive to an acting president. "...

You are asking if two rouge silo lieutenants could initiate a missile launch?

No.

"And re: noel's other flailing digression, yes, I believe people could also recognize an E1 pulse of sufficient size as an external attack. "...

Through observation of a visible nuclear blast?

"Most people, in fact, would almost certainly be unable to distinguish one form of mysterious power loss from another. Once it was established that even thing not directly connected to the grid were affected, the common assumption would be 'EMP.' "...

How would this be generally "established"?

"I should also note that my 'belated correction' happened within seconds and before your post, and consisted only of the change from 'president' to 'civilian government,' meant to head off any condescending... "...

You meant "to head off rebuttal of a factual error", correct?

"... supercilious suggestions that I might not be aware of the concept of succession. All other fripperies and embellishments, from mentions of 'Barry' to the Joint Chiefs, were your own. "...

So this :

"It does, actually. If they can't reach the president, the military is empowered to launch. "...

Was false, as was this :

"This is, again, a claim I did not make. Rather, I said that if the military cannot reach the civilian government... "...

And this :

(Noel)- "Can you direct me to where you said that?"...

(Tom)- "August 12, at 4:48. That's actually what started this whole meaningless, empty diversion of yours, in fact. "...

Was an unprincipled effort to shift responsiblility for the error away from yourself, correct?

Do you now agree that I was accurate in my description of geographic scope, and effect, of a moderate yield, high altitude, gamma-ray biased nuclear device?

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TomDavidson
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Noel, please stop pretending to be an idiot. It's offensive.
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DonaldD
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quote:
Originally posted by DonaldD:
quote:
Originally posted by noel c.:
... And told the rest of us when, and how?

How exactly would that question be relevant to the military chain of command making the decision to drop nuclear warheads on Iran
quote:
Originally posted by noel c.:
Donald, in the United States the military chain of command does not make those decisions,

noel, I thought you knew that the president, as commander in chief, is at the top of the military command structure.

Is this news to you?
quote:
Originally posted by noel c.:
Donald,

Pay attention to Americans on this one.


Oh, I am, noel - I am paying attention to you not knowing that the president is the commander-in-chief of the USA military, and as such, that he would be the one to make any decision on nuclear retaliation against an Iranian EMP, absent him being incapacitated. [Smile]
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DonaldD
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But ignoring this particular digression for the moment, noel, you never did address why "telling the rest of us" would in any way affect an immediate military counter-strike, which would, as was mentioned before, be basically automatic given an ICBM, tracked from Iran exploding over the USA and causing such extensive damage as you have earlier posited.
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NobleHunter
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Because I said I'd look: the youtube links seem to be about "death to America" chants. Not exactly the theological exegesis I was looking for.
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Greg Davidson
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Can I tell my favorite gamma ray story? Around 1970, the US had multiplke Vela satellites (built by TRW) designed to detected nuclear tests by identifying gamma rays and then triangulating based on arrival time (in a sense a precursor to how GPS is done). One Thursday they used this method and determined that there just had been a nuclear explosion near Chicago. They called Chicago, discovered it was still there, and then realized that there are two solutions for the source of gamma rays arriving at those satellites, and the other solution was celestial. And that's how gamma ray astronomy was born.
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