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Author Topic: Kerry Losing Ground
TomDavidson
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IIRC, the 14% wasn't a huge number at all; it merely reflected what was, in fact, a SHRINKING demographic gap between political persuasions online. It was even bigger back in 1995.
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Ron
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No Tom your comment is not accurate since you haven't shown it to be accurate in any sense of the word.

Since I haven't seen any resource from Tom, the best I can assume is that Tom has made a statement that he assumed no one would question, a statement that he shouldn't have made (I am sure like Kerry in Cambodia that number was somehow "seared" into his memory).

Now rather than apologize, Tom decided to obfuscate and waste everyone's time. Its petty, its small and it didn't need to be. But it does reflect what Tom really is.

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JLMyers
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93% of all statistics are made up.
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Ron
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At least Tom knows better now.

That being said I would like to see some statistic that states one mode of thought or poltiical thought has a higher incidence on online polls than another.

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TomDavidson
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Oh, Lord.

Ron, which would you like me to prove? That, specifically, there is a 14-point conservative bias in self-selected online polls (as of 2002) documented by the Pew Center that reflects the general demographic of the Internet population? Or that, in a broader sense, there is an acknowledged conserative bias in online polling that is referenced repeatedly by polling organizations and is in fact common knowledge to anyone who's taken a basic statistics course in the last six years?

I could, in theory, prove the former -- provided, of course, that I'm even remembering the number correctly. (I'm pretty sure I am, FWIW.) More important to me, however, is the LATTER.

Do you want to discuss the former, which is incidental to my main observation, or will you accept evidence of the latter so that we can move on to a more productive conversation? If you are willing to accept the latter, Ron, which was again my POINT, I would be happy to provide you with numerous links (or, if you'd prefer, the necessary Google keywords) to verify this claim.

[ August 23, 2004, 08:10 PM: Message edited by: TomDavidson ]

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Ron
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Given Deans success online I have my doubts.
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TomDavidson
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Can I get a yes or no out of you, Ron, so I can attempt to answer one of your questions?
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Ron
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quote:
93% of all statistics are made up.
That is untrue 7% of the time.
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Ron
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Tom I answered the question

"I don't know".

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Ron
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I did go to the Pew research center.

The poll on internet users showed the following:

Republican 34%
Democrats 25%
Ind 28%

The poll was January 1999.

Based on

Internet News Audience goes ordinary

The spread is 9%, and the Republicans tend to be moderate on social issues based on the same poll.

Now in fairness internet use does not translate to answering polls. So I did some further investigation and found the following:

quote:
More Republicans than Democrats go online for election news (by a margin of 18% to 11%), but there are few notable differences between political partisans in what they do online. Democrats and Republicans generally look for the same kinds of information, donate money and engage in online discussions at the same rates.

But nearly half of Republicans who go online for election news (46%) said they like to register their opinions in online polls. By comparison, fewer than three-in-ten Democrats (28%) do this. With Republicans more likely to go online for election news and register their opinions in polls, the profile of those who take online surveys tilts heavily Republican. Half of those who said they like to take online polls were Republicans, while just one-in-five were Democrats.

From Political Sites Gain, But Major News Sites Still Dominant

Dated January 2003. This is a 24% difference.

So concerning those who go to political websites for elections results. Republicans have a 24% greater number of submitting polls than democrats.

This is what I consider substantiation and while it proves that Tom's number (based on the caveats I placed in this post) is conservative. It also shows something else. That you don't just say things, you back them up. Otherwise all you are doing is crapping on this forum and not giving it the respect its due.

[ August 23, 2004, 08:53 PM: Message edited by: Ron ]

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Ron
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Its a question of being forthright and honest.

[ August 23, 2004, 08:53 PM: Message edited by: Ron ]

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TomDavidson
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Thank you, Ron. I'll settle for being honest and correct, and will trust you in the future to keep me forthright.

Edit: my wife has, quite rightly, accused me of being snarky in the above paragraph. I just wanted to reiterate, Ron, that I am sincerely grateful that you not only did the research but, when you found that it vindicated my claim, posted it here. I appreciate that, and do respect you for it.

[ August 23, 2004, 10:26 PM: Message edited by: TomDavidson ]

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Ron
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I don't think you have been Tom, thats the sad part.
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Richard Dey
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1983: +/- 100% (n=1) agrees with you [Smile] .
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TomDavidson
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Sorry about the edit; it came in as you were posting. But it still stands, even despite your last caveat. [Smile]
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Ivan
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meworkingman-
quote:
Ivan:

I think you've got me confused with someone else. I've never posted anything that called for Kerry to contradict what the Swifties are saying. The only thing I'm pointing out is that Kerry is trying to get away with a HUGE hypocrisy here.

This is the passage my post was refering to. I apologize for not quoting it in my original message:

quote:
Kerry can't rebut what the Swifties are saying so he tries to throw some doubt on their testimony by trying to link them with those "unsavory" Republicans.
The implication, as I understood it, was that Kerry should somehow be able to refute the SBVT claims in some other, factual way. If that was not your meaning, then I apologize.

I can understand the confusion regardless, since my post was directly under a different post of yours and, as I mentioned above, I didn't quote your earlier passage.

-Ivan

EDIT:
And I might as well respond to your response. [Smile]
quote:
I would agree that the first thing he should do is release ALL of his military records. These records could go a long way towards rebutting some of the Swifties claims, specifically the extent of his wounds and the documentation that were the bases for his medal awards.

I agree completely here. I would like to see whatever it is these records say. I have a sneaking suspicion that there is something embarassing but has nothing to do with the SBVT claims burried in there. But of course, I could be wrong. [Big Grin]

quote:
Next, he could challenge the Swifties to a debate; he could lay out his proof and the Swifties could lay out theirs.
See, I just don't think this would serve any purpose. The only debate is his word against theirs, and giving them more (free) time on national TV would only serve to hurt him. There really isn't any solid "evidence" besides his medical records, and it just doesn't look good to go on national TV and tell a bunch of Viet Nam vets that what they're saying just isn't true. IMO, that's the only real debate here.

quote:
Finally, he could address the question about why he was willing to present heresay evidence in front of the Senate about war crimes without properly vetting that evidence.
That would be a good question to get answered, even though it doesn't really have anything to do with SBVT.

[ August 23, 2004, 10:41 PM: Message edited by: Ivan ]

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Ron
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OK, then I do appreciate the thanks on that item and will take it for what it is without assuming more.
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WarrsawPact
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Wow. New HUGE Zogby polls in.

Kerry has resecured his leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa.

Bush has resecured Ohio and West Virginia.

Here are the true statistical ties (within 2%)
Tennessee (was barely Bush, now barely Kerry)
Arkansas (still barely Bush)
Missouri (was barely Bush, now tied)
Nevada (was barely Bush, now barely Kerry)
Colorado (very much tied, I think 3 polls in a row now)
Florida (was barely Kerry, now barely Bush... this one looks like it will be another photo finish)
**note: nobody's polled Maine in over half a month now, they really should considering how close this electoral race is...**

Until the convention is over... here's what the best case scenarios are in battleground states:
Realistic Best case scenario for Kerry - 297-241
Realistic Best case scenario for Bush - 274-264

Bush must get Tennessee back and get all the statistical ties in his court, assuming all the stronger-decided states stay where they are.

All this is assuming Zogby got its numbers right. Somebody it seems was weighing things in a funny way.

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WarrsawPact
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Add that to this:

LA Times Poll: Bush in Lead by ~3%

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ATW
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No offense at all to the Pew research center but 1999 is ancient for a poll about internet usage.

A report from last december on the pew site

http://www.pewinternet.org/PPF/c/2/topics.asp

This report, which analyzes the responses of more than 64,000 Americans to phone surveys in the past three years, shows that 63 percent of U.S. adults now are online.


Gee, what percent of the adult population was online in 1999?

Wouldn't signing up massive numbers of new users shift reflect a change in online users political preferences?

Or are we to suppose that people are signing up for internet services in the same political proportions as they had for that snapshot in time back in 1999?

edit:

Other notes:

1)Many internet polls keep people from double voting through giving a cookie which can be easily deleted which let's you vote an unlimited number of times.

2)Polls are also going to be affected according to how news sites are seen by groups.

For example, many conservatives see CNN as biased and aren't going to go there to see the poll in the first place. So even if republicans were to outnumber democrats in the general internet population, people seeing a CNN online poll might be skewed in the other direction.

How many die-hard democrats make Fox News their first choice when looking for the day's news? Probably few.

How many conservatives make Fox News their first choice when looking for the day's news?
Probably lots.

If people were going to every internet news site and voting in every poll, knowing the skew in the internet population would be more meaningful. As it is, people go to sites they enjoy and only news junkies such as myself go out there and hit sites other than favorites.

[ August 26, 2004, 10:09 AM: Message edited by: ATW ]

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Ivan
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ATW-
If you'll recall, the large split that accounted for the polling difference that Tom was refering to was in that Republicans are more likely to respond to the internet polls rather than see them. So unless that has changed (and I'll grant that it most certainly might have), we're faced with the same situation.

-Ivan

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ATW
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Ah, but entry cost to get on to the internet has dropped and the number of people with internet access has more than doubled.

Everything I've seen suggests the people getting onto the internet are the middle and lower income classes where the democrats say their voters are.

So even if republicans were to be more likely to respond to polls than democrats, the large influx of democrats into the system will skew results in their direction to some extent.

Clarification:

Let's say 1000 new lower income people sign up to the internet. Their demographic breakdown is 45% democrat 25% republican with the rest as independent. (which isn't too far off real numbers when looking at a lower income group)

That gives 450 democrats each with a 25% chance to respond (according to the first stat in Ron's post) gives 112 new democrat responses.

The 250 republicans with their 34% chance to respond to the poll gives 85 new republican responses.

In any case, Tom's right in that internet polls aren't accurate enough to prove anything.

I've known people who have sat in front of their computer wiping their cookies and voting in polls over and over. I've read company emails telling everyone to stop what they're doing and go vote on an online political poll which would affect our industry.

Those polls might be interesting to look at but don't prove anything.

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Ron Lambert
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The online Detroit News poll of whose version of the truth about John Kerry's service in Vietnam do respondents tend to believe is now running at:
quote:

Swift Boat Veterans for Truth's 52.91%

John Kerry's 47.09%


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WarrsawPact
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What the hell is wrong with these polls?

Kerry has lost his lead in Wisconsin... and apparently Bush is ahead by 4% there, which makes me wonder what either Zogby or, the new poll, the LA Times, was smoking.

The LA Times poll also puts Bush in the lead in Missouri.

Two polls now have put Bush in charge of Ohio by 5%.
Two polls now have put Bush in charge of Florida too, but only barely (2%).

Maine will go to Kerry; finally a new poll.

VERY interesting!
A new Pew poll puts Bush in the lead in Pennsylvania by 3 points. Or, more correctly, "Among registered voters, Kerry leads 45% to 43%, but among likely voters Bush is ahead 45% to 44%."
That'd be the election, right there.

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WarrsawPact
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Oh, and by the way, Bush is only behind by 11 electoral votes now, 270 - 259, with Colorado tied.
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TomDavidson
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"What the hell is wrong with these polls?"

Well, they ARE only polls.

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WarrsawPact
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Yeah, but statistics shouldn't be that far off within such a short period of time.
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Ron Lambert
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The online Detroit News poll now shows these stats for how many believe whose version of Kerry's military service:
quote:

Swift Boat Veterans for Truth's 53.73%

John Kerry's 46.27%

Whatever may be said about the poll's accurate reflection of the general view of voters in this largest market in Michigan, one of the largest battleground states, one thing that seems significant is how the percentages continue to increase from day to day in favor of Bush. When this poll started out several days ago, Kerry was slightly in the lead, by about a percentage point. Now Bush has about a 7 1/2 point lead.

Watch out, before you know it, Bush is going to have "Big MO" on his side!

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Ron Lambert
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I took a bit of a liberty when I equated respondents favoring the Swift Boat Vets' version to being in favor of Bush. But this seems to have a logical correlation with the increase in the polls we now see benefitting Bush.
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ccap1
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The first debate will settle things down. The first debate will conclude at the RNC when W accepts the nomination. We will have had the opening arguments by both candidates and I fully expect Bush to win this. However the second debate will shake things up quite a bit. I am anticipating a Kerry KO but I could be wrong... Assuming that, we will have a split electorate. The following two debates are key here. If Kerry goes 3-1 he will win in a landslide.
If he loses the last debate he will lose in a landslide. If he manages a split but wins the final debate the presidency will be decided by the congress. We will have an electoral tie.

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Ron Lambert
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The latest CNN poll puts President Bush ahead in the electoral college count:
quote:
NEW YORK (CNN) -- President Bush heads into the Republican National Convention next week with a small lead over Democratic challenger John Kerry in the all-important Electoral College, according to a new CNN analysis of state polling, advertising buys and interviews with campaign strategists and neutral analysts.

Bush would receive 274 electoral votes to Kerry's 264 if the election were held today, less than 10 weeks before November 2 and three days before the opening of the GOP convention in Madison Square Garden.

Link for above: CNN poll shows Bush leads in electoral college

Looks like Bush is getting big Mo on his side.

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TomDavidson
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"Yeah, but statistics shouldn't be that far off within such a short period of time."

Depending on methodology, this variation could in fact be well within the margin of error.

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Doug64
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quote:
If he manages a split but wins the final debate the presidency will be decided by the congress. We will have an electoral tie.
I would actually class that as possibly the least likely outcome. Remember that in the last election, with the vote within 0.5%, Bush still got enough electoral votes to win, and Kerry would have if Florida had gone the other way.
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WarrsawPact
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Doug64 -
quote:
Remember that in the last election, with the vote within 0.5%, Bush still got enough electoral votes to win, and Kerry would have if Florida had gone the other way.
Small correction: Gore

And an electoral tie is perfectly plausible. I worked out several ways in which we could have a 269-269 tie. It's no more improbable than any other vote count.

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WarrsawPact
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For those who are interested:
Bush's electoral strategy for the next two weeks

Bush is going to concentrate on West Virginia and Iowa, but especially Ohio and Pennsylvania.

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Doug64
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quote:
Small correction: Gore
Right you are. Oops.
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WarrsawPact
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Everyone makes these mistakes. Like some people keep saying "Gore" is the President of the United States.
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Ron Lambert
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Well, if America were really a democracy, Gore would be president, since he won the election by half a million votes.
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WillBest
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Well if America was really a democracy then there wouldn't be just two viable presidential candidates. There would be more like 4-5. And then who knows what the output would be.
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WarrsawPact
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It's a representative democracy. Period. There's nothing really wrong with that.
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