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Author Topic: Kerry Losing Ground
Ron Lambert
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The Electoral College is what is wrong with that.
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WarrsawPact
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The Electoral College allows us to keep the middle of this country alive, as much as it may seem unfair to people like me in California.

We can't let politicians neglect a geographic area that is so vital to the well-being of our economy, and quite honestly California gets quite enough representation as it is.

I know most of the arguments for both sides of the electoral college debate, and for the moment I think it's for the best.

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Dave at Work
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If America were a Democracy all of the votes would have been counted including more than 2 million absentee ballots in Californmia and the popular vote would have been completely tallied. As it stands, no complete tally of all those votes and the resulting national popular vote has been published that I can find.

[ August 30, 2004, 05:12 PM: Message edited by: Dave at Work ]

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WarrsawPact
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If we're to believe the new polls, Bush has more than enough electoral votes to win -- 280.
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Everard
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Yeah, as I keep saying... neck and neck for a while [Smile]

I think Bush is getting a little bounce from the swift vet ads. But from what I've been seeing, that will start fading in the next 10 days or so, and then the next "scandal" will determine who gets the next bounce.

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Ivan
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I'm reading Plato right now. What we really need is some Philosopher-kings. ;-)
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Ron Lambert
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Nice idea, Ivan, but name one politician in this country who is a philosopher. Or name one philosopher who would be daft enough to run for office in this country. Or name one real philosopher.
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Ron Lambert
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The Election Board here in Michigan had been deadlocked about allowing the gay marriage ban to be placed on the ballot, which was really a partisan failure to do their job, since there were abundant signatures to put the measure on the ballot. The Court had to intervene and overrule the Election Board.

Since this proposal is strongly backed by conservatives, this will likely bring more conservatives out to vote, which will obviously benefit the Republicans in general.

The second thing the Court did was overrule the deadlocked Election Board again and allow Ralph Nader to be placed on the ballot. Democrats fought bitterly with every trick they could muster to prevent this, because Nader will probably draw 2% to 3% of voters away from Kerry. But ample signatures were collected to force placing Nader on the ballot, and the Election Board again was playing partisan politics.

Up to now, estimates of how battleground states were leaning had Michigan very slightly favoring Kerry. But with the gay marriage ban on the ballot to attract more conservative voters to the polls, and with Nader on the ballot to draw votes away from Kerry, that could be more than enough to tilt Michigan towards Bush.

Of course, this all may be moot, in view of the latest Newsweek poll after the Republican National Convention, that shows Bush has opened up an 11% lead. It is assumed that Bush got an excellent "bounce" coming out of the extended campaign ad that was the RNC, despite the fact that Kerry got virtually no bounce following the DNC. But whether the lead Bush has opened up is a result of bounce after the convention, or is just a continuation of the momentum that began for Bush a couple of weeks before the RNC, is hard to say. It may even be that the failure of Kerry to get a bounce after his convention was because it was swallowed up by the growing momentum for Bush.

If this trend continues, we may have a repeat of the Reagan-McGovern election, where the only state the democratic candidate carried was Massachusetts.

In view of the growing Bush lead, we can expect desperation and more direct, personal attacks by Kerry against Bush and Cheney. All Bush has to do is maintain an even keel, look and talk presidential, and continue as he has all along to make no personal attack against Kerry, insisting he does not question Kerry's patriotism or his military service. Bush has never made that an issue, only Kerry. Kerry's hysterical attempt to pin the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth ads on Bush will continue to fall flat as Bush continues to repudiate them and call for an end to unrestrained funding for advertising by all such "527" groups.

There is something else very important to watch out for. Unless Kerry can pull out a miracle in the debates (and Bush now has nothing to lose by limiting them to as few as possible), at some point other democratic candidates across the country are going to see Kerry's declining poll numbers, and decide they need to try to distance themselves as much as possible from the Kerry campaign, and start encouraging voters to split their tickets. Otherwise democratic candidates for office on all levels--federal, state, and local--are going to be pulled down with Kerry.

When this happens, when other democrats begin abandoning ship--and it could happen after the first debate, and could conceivably happen even before the first debate if Bush's momentum in the polls continues and he opens up a wide enough lead--we will know the Kerry campaign is truly over.

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TomDavidson
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The great thing about Ron's post is that he manages to make all that campaign strategy sound something other than evil. [Smile]
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WarrsawPact
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Have you guys not been listening to me this entire time?
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David Ricardo
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Kerry is, of course, losing ground. The Republican Party has run a very effective negative campaign against Kerry in the last 3-4 weeks, and the Democratic Party, frankly, is still locked in the throes of being weak and wimpy liberals.

In other words, the Republicans are kicking the Democrats into the ground, and the Democrats are just letting themselves get abused.

Kerry is not the most exciting alternative to Bush, but he does have a political reputation for being a "comeback kid." Kerry needs to lay out an alternative vision against Bush instead of continuing with his weak and overly cautious nuances.

While I am increasingly disgusted with the pathetic smearing and sliming of the Bush-Rove machine that has become the modus operandi of the Republican Party, it is getting the job done well for Bush-Cheney 2004 right now. The Democratic Party is simply not as tough and hard-nosed as the much more disciplined Republican Party.

Kerry will need to strike back hard at Bush instead of staying strictly on hte defensive. For now, I am betting that Kerry will find some political backbone and regain a second wind, but he better start doing it ASAP, or November 2004 may become a blowout victory for Bush-Cheney.

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Ron Lambert
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A correction to my earlier post--it was Nixon vs. McGovern in 1972 when the democratic candidate only carried Massachusetts.

It was almost as bad in the Reagan-Mondale contest in 1984. Mondale only carried Minnesota and the District of Columbia.

Source: Election results by state

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WarrsawPact
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David has forgotten how much Kerry slammed Bush until everyone found out how boring it was to stake out someone's ANG service.

You ask a smart Republican how things are gonig, they'll say Kerry is running a very weak campaign on the defesive and Bush's team is running a brilliant campaign that consistently seeks out and exploits the weaknesses of the Kerry team.
You ask a smart Democrat how it's gonig, and they'll say Kerry is fighting against a vast Karl Rove-Dick Cheney-turncoat Demcorat smear machine, but he'll come out of it all shining in the end.

The Democrats aren't "letting themselves get abused." They're stupidly (but very actively) falling into a tit-for-tat agaisnt Bush, they're on the defensive, because they built so much on Kerry being a soldier that America needs to "send" to fix all our problems. But Kerry isn't built for going on the offensive when his war record (of all things) is questioned.

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David Ricardo
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According to the internal polling of the Bush and Kerry campaigns, it seems that they concur that Bush is ahead of Kerry by about four points as of one day after the RNC convention.
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WarrsawPact
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One of the states has been polled. New Mexico, which was polled during the convention, went from a Kerry lead of 6% to a Bush lead of 3%.
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WarrsawPact
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New Zogby poll came out.

www.electoral-vote.com

Seems like everyone went and sat on the fence. 52 electoral votes are now TIED. That includes Florida, Missouri, Nevada and (as far as we know) Colorado.

Ohio is now solidly Bush territory.
Tennessee rejoined the Republicans.
New Mexico is solidly Kerry territory again.

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David Ricardo
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Actually, I recommend a different electoral college website for much more in-depth electoral vote analysis:

http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

Daly is a partisan Republican, yet he has probably the most impressive electoral vote analysis around. While www.electoral-vote.com only takes into consideration the most recent polls (and does not discount partisan Democratic and Republican polls), Daly weights all the recent polls for a state together while also discounting the effect of partisan Democratic and Republican polls.

No offense to www.electoral-vote.com, but I think that Daly's electoral analysis is definitely superior.

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Levin
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Warning: New Person Making Posts. May not be aware of past arguments, stances, or landmines or other things that are obvious to forum veterans.

I agree with Ivan about the Philosopher Kings. Unfortunatley, they're not exactly thick on the ground around here. But I think the electoral college can work if we start using instant-runoff voting.

I've examined the electoral votes map, and if things keep going back and forth, this may be another election where we will not know the results on Election Night.

Keep in mind, though, that Kerry has pulled of tough victories twice in recent elections- against William Weld in 1996, and against Howard Dean in 2004. Both times, he came up near the end of the campaign and clonked his opponents over the head, took the lead, held it, and won. I was on the Dean campaign, so I know a little bit about this first-hand. All I can say is Ouch.

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WmLambert
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With Kerry it is not the Philosopher Kings in short supply - it is Diogenes.

Where is the news media asking the questions that ought to be asked?
Has any reporter asked Kerry about form 180?
About his participation in the VVAW meeting where his groups discussed assassinating Senators?
About why his discharge papers were five years late?
About why he annulled his first marriage making his grown children bastards in the eye of the church?
About why he volunteered to join the Naval Reserves, then castigates Bush for actually getting in the Texas Air National Guard?

Sometimes it is the answers... Sometimes it is the questions.

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LoverOfJoy
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Thanks for the other link. Why does Daly Thoughts show Bush states as blue and Kerry states as red, though? That kinda threw me off.
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maniacal_engineer
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red states for a socialist? seems more appropriate than the coloring they had before.
[Wink]

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LoverOfJoy
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I'm kinda surprised that the last poll listed on DalyThoughts for West Virginia was in July. I can understand Rhode Island having it's last poll in June but WV looks to be a pretty competitive state.
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Ron Lambert
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When the Zogby poll came out on September 7 that showed Bush only a few points ahead of Kerry, Democrats pounced on that and crowed that Kerry had overcome the Bush post-convention bounce, and that the earlier Time-Newsweek Polls were flawed.

But this comment by Dick Morris of the New York Post, cited by National Review Online, disputes the Zogby Poll, and states exactly what caused the difference in statistical sampling:

quote:
How big is Bush's lead? Don't believe the surveys that show it in the 5- to 7-point range. Believe the surveys of Time and Newsweek, which show a lead in excess of 10 points.

The difference is because pollsters disagree about whether or not to weight their results to keep constant the ratio of Republicans, Democrats and Independents in their sample. Some polling firms treat party affiliation as a demographic constant and, when they find that their sample has too many Republicans, they weight down each Republican interview and assign an extra weight to each Democratic response.

But other polling firms — and I — disagree. We feel that political party is not a demographic, like gender or race or age. If the survey finds more Republicans than usual, we think it's because the country has become more Republican, so we treat the result as a indicator of national mood, not of statistical error.

Time and Newsweek both picked up major moves toward the GOP in the wake of the convention. Likely the other firms did too, but they treated the finding as a mistake and weighed down the Republican interviews, making the race appear to be closer than it really is.

The above passage is part of a larger article at: http://www.nationalreview.com/kerry/kerryspot.asp#001785

Here is the link to Morris' New York Post article: http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/19281.htm

In the same article, Morris goes on to make this interesting prediction concerning the up-coming debates:
quote:
The debates are likely to help Bush, since Kerry's supporters are so divided on the war and on terrorism. Almost whatever Kerry says is likely to lose him a share of his voters. For example, 37 percent of his supporters told the Rasmussen Poll that they want America to give priority to making democracy work in Iraq, while 54 percent want Kerry to emphasize troop withdrawal. So when Kerry said Monday that he'd prioritize bringing the troops home, his comments appealed to the majority of his voters but alienated more than a third of them. The debates are fraught with such traps.


[ September 09, 2004, 11:07 PM: Message edited by: Ron Lambert ]

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LoverOfJoy
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Or as Arnold might say, if you like to answer phone polls, you are a Republican!

[Smile]

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