Ornery.org
  Front Page   |   About Ornery.org   |   World Watch   |   Guest Essays   |   Contact Us

The Ornery American Forum Post New Topic  Post A Reply
my profile login | register | search | faq | forum home

  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» The Ornery American Forum » General Comments » website i can't stop checking (Page 1)

 - UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!   This topic comprises 3 pages: 1  2  3   
Author Topic: website i can't stop checking
simplybiological
Member
Member # 1344

 - posted      Profile for simplybiological   Email simplybiological   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
www.electoral-vote.com

this guy obsessively checks polls and updates the status of the states. and i obsessively play with the pop-up map.

thought some of you might like to add this to your kill-time-at-work folder.

Posts: 1742 | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
canadian
Member
Member # 1809

 - posted      Profile for canadian   Email canadian       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
lol, I check it quite often myself.
Posts: 5362 | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
kelcimer
unregistered


 - posted            Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
same here
IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Tezcatlipoca
Member
Member # 1312

 - posted      Profile for Tezcatlipoca     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The one I can't stop checking is this one. [Frown]
Posts: 1272 | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Lewkowski
Member
Member # 2028

 - posted      Profile for Lewkowski   Email Lewkowski       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Check it a lot as well.

I disagree with his system though (oooh latest poll must post it!) He really should average polls together, some polls are just whacky outliers that really shouldn't be included.

Posts: 890 | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
simplybiological
Member
Member # 1344

 - posted      Profile for simplybiological   Email simplybiological   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
you're ignoring the fact that all methodology problems can be cancelled out by fun graphics and the pretty, pretty colors.

(sorry about the deleting and re-posting. someone (and i'm not naming any names here) left himself logged in on my computer)

Posts: 1742 | Registered: Oct 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Dave at Work
Member
Member # 1906

 - posted      Profile for Dave at Work   Email Dave at Work   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
He really should average polls together, some polls are just whacky outliers that really shouldn't be included.
If you click on individual states and look at the graph of the polling data you will see that he has a linear regression line which uses a least squares fit technique to draw a straight line wich most closely fits the data points. The projected results are not used in the main map results however, just the current poll results. I think he does have a projected winner map link somewhere but I will have to look for it again. I assume that it uses the results as predicted by the linear regression projections.
Posts: 1928 | Registered: Jul 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
faithful_servant
Member
Member # 2088

 - posted      Profile for faithful_servant     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
The reality of the polls is that they are wrong. Take a look at the polls in Australia prior to the recent election. They showed the race as a dead heat, the reality was that John Howard was an over-whelming favorite. If the polling methodolgy is sound, how could this happen? Most of the pollsters use a certain amount of weighting in their polls in order to "balance out" the data to make sure that everyone's voice get heard. The end result of this is polls that are substantially skewed toward the middle. Also, the pollsters are by no means completely objective. Each has a small problem in that a close race is good for business (yes, they are businesses), so they they have a profit motive to interpret the results in such a way as to reflect a close race. You see, if the race was completely one-sided, no one would be asking them for more poll results because the result would be already decided.
Posts: 10 | Registered: Oct 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
canadian
Member
Member # 1809

 - posted      Profile for canadian   Email canadian       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I don't know...when you look at the Gore/Bush/Nader results at the bottom of each stat, they match up pretty close to what's going on today. This is really anyone's race.
Posts: 5362 | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Things look like they're tightening up...

Gallup October 12

CNN

electoral-vote.com

Oct 7 AP Poll on Fox

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
San_Dimas
Member
Member # 2043

 - posted      Profile for San_Dimas   Email San_Dimas   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Projected Electoral Map
Posts: 17 | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Zyne
Member
Member # 117

 - posted      Profile for Zyne   Email Zyne   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I'm calling bull****-and-partisan-to-post without any words about least squares, regression, etc.
Posts: 4003 | Registered: Nov 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
RickyB
Member
Member # 1464

 - posted      Profile for RickyB   Email RickyB   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
my problem with that site is that he'll show, for instance, Ohio going for Bush - on the strength of a Strategic Vision (Republican polling firm) poll - when even RealClearPlitics' average has OH going slightly Kerry's way. I'd object just as strongly if it was Democracy Corps, by the way.
Posts: 19145 | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Zyne
Member
Member # 117

 - posted      Profile for Zyne   Email Zyne   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
To clarify: My bull**** call is on the version San Dimas posted, the one with least squares.
Posts: 4003 | Registered: Nov 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Ivan
Member
Member # 1467

 - posted      Profile for Ivan   Email Ivan   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Hi, SB! When'd you get back in?
Posts: 1710 | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Ricky, he actually addresses that problem somewhere on his site. He doesn't want to start ignoring any particular pollster because he admits he has his own biases. He just throws all the crap into a food processor, and sticks the results onto the map.

I believe he does provide all his sources, so you can always do the homework yourself. Also, as Zyne noted, you may reject out of hand the methodology.

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
KenBean
Member
Member # 603

 - posted      Profile for KenBean   Email KenBean   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Well, after the betting is all done...they usually have the actual horse-race and/or ball-game [Big Grin]

In the final analysis, America will get the President we as a voting people deserve.
Bean

Posts: 1539 | Registered: Dec 2001  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Sancselfieme
unregistered


 - posted            Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Some of these polls seem pretty odd chosing. For intance I saw a few polls that gave states to Bush and Kerry, but the dates were all skewed, and for some of them I know there were recent polls.
IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
EDanaII
Member
Member # 1062

 - posted      Profile for EDanaII   Email EDanaII   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
There's only one poll that I'm even remotely interested in checking. It's the only one that really matters. The one on November 2nd. [Smile]

Ed.

Posts: 3504 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Just an update - 2 days ago, this site had Bush ahead by about 280 to 200.

Yesterday, it had closed a bit more with Bush still ahead with ~260 to ~240.

Today it's a dead heat with Kerry marginally up 253 to 247

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
canadian
Member
Member # 1809

 - posted      Profile for canadian   Email canadian       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Wait for the next neo-con attack...
Posts: 5362 | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
It's now Kerry 284 - Bush 247 - Florida moved to Kerry by 1%, so it's really still a statistical tie.

On the other hand, get a load of this
quote:
Are the voters stupid? It is not considered politically correct to point out that an awful lot of voters don't have a clue what they are talking about. A recent poll from Middle Tennessee State University sheds some light on the subject. For example, when asked which candidate wants to roll back the tax cuts for people making over $200,000 a year, a quarter thought it was Bush and a quarter didn't know. And it goes down hill from there. When asked which candidate supports specific positions on various issues, the results were no better than chance. While this poll was in Tennessee, I strongly suspect a similar poll in other states would get similar results. I find it dismaying that many people will vote for Bush because they want to tax the rich (which he opposes) or vote for Kerry because they want school vouchers for religious schools (which he opposes).

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Storm Saxon
Member
Member # 1070

 - posted      Profile for Storm Saxon     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
That's really weird. Almost every poll I've seen has Bush ahead by a few percentage points.
Posts: 2936 | Registered: Jun 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
LoverOfJoy
Member
Member # 157

 - posted      Profile for LoverOfJoy   Email LoverOfJoy   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Bush could win the popular vote and lose the electoral vote. That would be ironic. [Smile]
Posts: 3639 | Registered: Nov 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
WarrsawPact
Member
Member # 1275

 - posted      Profile for WarrsawPact   Email WarrsawPact   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Not likely, but ironic. Undecideds tend to break 2-to-1 for the challenger. We're in a dead heat.
Posts: 7500 | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Everard
unregistered


 - posted            Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
This is about where polls start to mean something, and the polls, more or less, are showing that we've got a dead heat, as warsaw said.

I WISH the two campaigns would clean up their acts, but its unlikely, so the winner will be "he who smears his opponent best"

IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Lewkowski
Member
Member # 2028

 - posted      Profile for Lewkowski   Email Lewkowski       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Tommorow or the next day its going to flip back to Bush.

His methodology is pretty bad, but he's honest about it.

Not a Dead heat IMO. Bush has Ohio almost locked up. Been Bush country for a long time. A few polls recently say otherwise, but for the most part Bush has Ohio.

Florida will be closer, but with a Jeb winning in 2002 I think its clear that Florida likes Bush. With those two states... its going to be difficult for Kerry to win.

Posts: 890 | Registered: Sep 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Van Aaron
Member
Member # 98

 - posted      Profile for Van Aaron   Email Van Aaron   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Nearly all the national polls now show Bush in the lead. Some have him ahead by a meaningful percentage (Gallup by 8, Fox by 7, Newsweek by 6), some by a percentage that is not statistically significant (CBS by 2, Time by 1, NBC shows a tie).
Posts: 997 | Registered: Nov 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Now its Kerry 291, Bush 247, based on Iowa flipping to weak Kerry.

But still, the only changes to this projection recently (Iowa, Florida) have been well within the margin of error, so the site is still in practice calling the race a dead heat.

<edit> oops. New Mexico and Nevada also both flipped in the past few days, but their votes are a wash.

[ October 20, 2004, 01:14 PM: Message edited by: DonaldD ]

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Robertson, Ugly and Nohow
Member
Member # 1375

 - posted      Profile for Robertson, Ugly and Nohow   Email Robertson, Ugly and Nohow   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
For comparison purposes:
Here's another one that has slightly different numbers (still shows Kerry ahead when the marginal leads are included).

Posts: 450 | Registered: Nov 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Mr Xin Ku
Member
Member # 1472

 - posted      Profile for Mr Xin Ku     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Not likely, but ironic. Undecideds tend to break 2-to-1 for the challenger. We're in a dead heat.
By the way, who in the world is still undecided? It is hard for me to imagine who might be, except maybe those who loathe both candidates but will still vote for one and some drama queens who enjoy being the center of attention. [Roll Eyes]
Posts: 233 | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Star Pilot 111
Member
Member # 1972

 - posted      Profile for Star Pilot 111     Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote
In the final analysis, America will get the President we as a voting people deserve.
Bean
_____________________________________________________

Do you mean as a punishment, or as a reward ???

Posts: 337 | Registered: Aug 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
JoshuaD
Member
Member # 1420

 - posted      Profile for JoshuaD   Email JoshuaD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Mr Xin Ku:
quote:
Not likely, but ironic. Undecideds tend to break 2-to-1 for the challenger. We're in a dead heat.
By the way, who in the world is still undecided? It is hard for me to imagine who might be, except maybe those who loathe both candidates but will still vote for one and some drama queens who enjoy being the center of attention. [Roll Eyes]
I know alot of people who just aren't really involved. They didn't buy into the Moore-esque smear of Bush, but they're not really very happy with him. On the other hand, they're none too impressed with Kerry.

It's really the not very political, but level-headed people.

Posts: 3742 | Registered: Dec 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Wayward Son
Member
Member # 210

 - posted      Profile for Wayward Son   Email Wayward Son   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
From what I've heard, there are not any real "undecideds", but rather a number of people with weak decisions. That is what Gallop discovered when they tried to fill the audience for the second debate with "undecideds." They ended up inviting a group that had decided, but felt they could easily be swayed to the other candidate.

As the election draws near, I think most of those people will solidify their choices, just to keep from being influenced by last-minute accusations.

Posts: 8681 | Registered: Dec 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
WarrsawPact
Member
Member # 1275

 - posted      Profile for WarrsawPact   Email WarrsawPact   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Just like the vast majority of so-called independents "lean" towards one party so consistently that they might as well be registered with the party itself.
Posts: 7500 | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
EDanaII
Member
Member # 1062

 - posted      Profile for EDanaII   Email EDanaII   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
That some of us independents "lean" in one direction or another doesn't meant that we should be a registered member of that party. It simply means that the other party hasn't offered us anything that interests us... Yet.

That can always change.

Ed.

Posts: 3504 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
WarrsawPact
Member
Member # 1275

 - posted      Profile for WarrsawPact   Email WarrsawPact   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
No Ed, I was just saying that statistically they might as well be *counted* as registered for that party.

Sorry for the misleading.

Posts: 7500 | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
WarrsawPact
Member
Member # 1275

 - posted      Profile for WarrsawPact   Email WarrsawPact   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Oh, and by the way, check this out:

Can the bidding market outpredict pollsters?

Posts: 7500 | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
EDanaII
Member
Member # 1062

 - posted      Profile for EDanaII   Email EDanaII   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
I understand Warrsaw, but to be honest, even though I lean Republican, I'd rather not be counted among their ranks. I chose to be independent BECAUSE I did not want any party affiliation.

It's better that both parties realize that their are independents out there, otherwise they'll end up thinking they're just preaching to the choir. [Smile]

Ed.

Interesting link, btw...

[ October 20, 2004, 11:00 PM: Message edited by: EDanaII ]

Posts: 3504 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
canadian
Member
Member # 1809

 - posted      Profile for canadian   Email canadian       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Here's another habit-forming site:

http://www.us-election.com/wv-results.php?region=nam&country=mx

Posts: 5362 | Registered: Jun 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
  This topic comprises 3 pages: 1  2  3   

Quick Reply
Message:

HTML is not enabled.
UBB Code™ is enabled.
UBB Code™ Images not permitted.
Instant Graemlins
   


Post New Topic  Post A Reply Close Topic   Feature Topic   Move Topic   Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
 - Printer-friendly view of this topic
Hop To:


Contact Us | Ornery.org Front Page

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classic™ 6.7.1