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» The Ornery American Forum » General Comments » Israeli ellections, and I am still undecided (Page 1)

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Author Topic: Israeli ellections, and I am still undecided
Hannibal
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hey less then two days the israelis (myself, Ricky) and several million others are going to vote for (yet again) what might very well be israel's most important ellections.

why? because in these ellections, the final borders of israel might be decided.
and, the issue of iran will have to be decided in the next couple of years.

but alas, the people of israel (myself included, and maybe Ricky too) have grown tired of israeli polititians. honestly, they all suck.
i still dont know whom am i going to vote two.

the result of the ellections are 90% decided, kadima even without sharon will probably win. so the main issue of the ellections is the coalition. what coalition is best for me (and for israel), most assurdly a coalition of kadima-labour-meretz. but the chances of those parties to go togather are slim.

anyway, before i blabber on and on, what do you think? are you even interested about the israeli ellections?

P.S by the way, incase you forgotten, arab israelis can defenetly vote at the ellections.

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Eric
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quote:
honestly, they all suck.
Politicians, by their very nature, suck. The task is to pick the one that sucks the least.

I wish I could say something intelligent on the subject...I know next to nothing of Israeli politics.

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ngthagg
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What an awful dilemma voting is: trying to choose the lesser evil for the greater good.

ngthagg

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Hannibal
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i dont think you understand.

its not only that they suck.
in the usa it doesnt matter who will be the president, democrat or republican, the country will go on allmost the same.

in israel, each of the leading parties can in his own way, destroy the country pretty easilly.

its not only the lesser evil, its more like the slowest doom.

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Standback
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Don't remind me.

I've despaired of finding a party whose platform I agree on in the least. I'm probably going to vote for the party I see as being the most intelligent and trustworthy of the lot, even if I happen to completely disagree with most of what they actually want to do.

...wait, that puts me down as voting for the pro-pot party, doesn't it?

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RickyB
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No! Whatever you do, do NOT vote for Ale Yarok. I refer you to my column on the subject:

http://elections.walla.co.il/?w=//879746

And that really is just the tip of the iceberg.

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Hannibal
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and he has voted.

well, i wasted my vote on the labour party.
i figured, they aint gonna win, so the clown in their head isnt going to be the PM. and the labour team are the most qualified in my point of view (aside to amir peretz) i figured i want the labour party to be in the coalition, so why not make them the strongest possible.

now let the good times roll

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Hannibal
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RESULTS

kadima got about 30, labour around 22.
now get this. a more hawkish party, "isra'el beiteno" got 14 mandates, and then likud and shas got 12 mandates.

the surprise of the ellections - the pensioners party got about 7 mandates!!

what does that mean you say?

first of all, it clearely means that the israelis have decided to divide the land. probably unilaterally.
remmeber star lisa? who said that the israelis didnt do a referendum for the gaza pullout? well, now there is was THE referendum. and israelis have voted for unilateral withawal!!

secondly, the agenda that won in the ellections - labour, pensioners, and partailly kadima, is more internal\economical affairs then security affairs.
israelis realize that there will never be an agreement with the palestinians. so they have decided to solve the issue with a unilateral seperation, and finally deal with internal affairs.


i am soooooooooo happy that the likud party crashed.
anyway, thats the majority. there are still many israelis, mostly the religous ones, that dont want to give up an inch of israel. that said. there is still a coalition, even without the arab parties. for seperation.

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DonaldD
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Hannibal, it doesn't sound like you are undecided anymore...

However - 30 + 22 + 7 gives 59 seats. I assume they won't have trouble picking up an extra 2 seats to make up a majority coalition?

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Hannibal
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actually [Smile] those 2 extra sits might cause great secrifice.

because it either means taking a leftis extrimist party like meretz, or a religious party(ies) Shas (spharadic jews) and Yahadut Hatora (ashkenazi jews) [the religious parties go togather)

i think that as since meretz will give support in pullout decisions outside of the coalition, they will stay out, so that the coalition will not "frighten" the people to be leftist extrimist.

i think that the religious parties are in. but, they cant threaten to much, because the coalition can do without them. there are also arab mandates that the coalition can lean on to. just like the coalition in 1992

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Hannibal
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ok, final official results. or some what more troubleing.

centralist - left block : 59
kadima 28
labour 20
pensioners 7
meretz 4
rightwing religous block : 51
likud 11
israel beitenu 12
shas 13
yahadut hatora 6
national unity 9

arabs - 10

thats not good, even with meretz, the coalition will still be dependent on a right wing party, or hope for external support from arab parties.

again to hold a coalition will be difficult.

my prediction - kadima, labour, pensioners, shash, yahadut hatora : 76 mandates.

looks solid. but 19 mandates are likely to oppose a witharawl.

that sucks.

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Jesse
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Hannibal?

Why does 76 to 19 suck?

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Ivan
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I think he meant 19 out of the coalliton of 76(?)
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RickyB
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Shas and Yahadut HaTorah are likely to quit the coalition once the next disengagement ("consolidation" is the new term) actually comes around. It's gonna be really tough to pull it off. Olmert's gonna have to grow in a hurry to even come close.
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DonaldD
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Any bets on how long it will take for another election to be called?
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RickyB
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Depends how soon Olmert can gear up for the withdrawal. I find it very hard to believe that any possible coalition in this Knesset will suffice for that, unless Shas are really desperate for the cash enough for their rabbi to pretend he's been convinced.
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Hannibal
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or the arab parties will support for that externally.

in the gaza pullout the were abstain, because the pullout passed without their help. question is, what will they do, if the pullout will depend on how they vote. after all, for them not to want an israeli withrawal will be extremely stupid.

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Hannibal
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GREAT NEWS !!!!

the final results showed an increase in kadima to 29, and meretz grew from 4 to 5.

that means that kadima-labour-meretz have togather 61 mandates!!!!

thats a steady majority for the disengagement plan!.

thats it. this parliment sit will last 4 years.
even if kadima will be "too afraid" to join with meretz and go with some religious party. at the end, once the dis' plan will go to vote. the religious party will leave, and meretz will enter the coalition.

these are great news from israel, because the majority of the JEWS clearly stated that they want unilateral seperation from the palestinians. no more can the religious and rightwingers claim that there is no jewish majority. i am so happy

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RickyB
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Olmert is never going to do the "Consolidation" without a JEWISH majority.

I know that's gonna seem mighty racist to some of y'all, but it does make sense.

Anyway, the situation improved slightly today. The soldiers and disabled people's votes came in. Kadima got another seat to go to 29 and so did left-wing midget Meretz (from 4 to 5). That gives a pro-withdrawal coalition the requisite 61 (Kadima 29 + Labor 20 + Retirees 7 + Meretz 5.

But (you knew there would be a but, right?) there's an unknown in our little equation - the old focks [Smile] I'm thrilled they won big, because it proves our society is still noble at heart. "You will NOT treat our elder folk like that, and if you do, we'll fix it come election time".

I decided at the last minute not to vote for them, because I felt they'd make it anyway, and so my vote was more needed elsewhere, plus I began having reservations about their leader (ex-Mossad bigwig).

Anyway, that's the rub. This hypothetical majority coalition relies on 7 votes nobody knows about on this issue. What allegiances do they have? Where exactly do their views lie along the spectrum, and have their views changed much in recent years? (key question there).

Raffi Eitan, the ex-Mossad leader of the party, used to be close with some pretty radical settlers. However, his wife said on the radio today that he has definitely realized in recent years that painful concessions would have to be made. Also, he himself said during the campaign that had he not been running, he's vote for Kadima (which exists solely to pursue this agenda, of course). But what about the others? And remember - these are some Ornery focking jews [Smile] These are old people. They don't give a damn about their political future. They're likely to have very little party discipline, especially when the issues get as weighty as this. So the other 6 - what are they thinking? If they're all willing to go along with the plan, it can be done. If even one turns to the other side when the time comes, we're screwed.

Another key question, however, is this: How desperate is Shas for money? Shas represents orthodox Jews of Eastern (mideast and north-af) descent. They themselves are more dovish than their constituents, but their grand rabbi gave a religious proclamation against unilateral withdrawals, so it's tricky...

Confused? You won't be, after the next episode of...(what's our working title here?) [Big Grin]

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DonaldD
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Ah, I see our resident Israelis are less gloomy than yesterday.

On the question of a separation vote: even with less than 61 votes - isn't a plurality of the yae/nay sufficient to pass a law? It's not a requirement to get an absolute majority of all votes in the legislature, so long as you get a majority of the non-absent, non-abstaining votes, no?

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javelin
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quote:
You won't be, after the next episode of...(what's our working title here?)
"As the kinda complicated Parliamentary system in Isreal turns"?
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Hannibal
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on a regular law, a standard majority is enough.
but it is possible to make it a fixed majority vote. and then you need 61. i think that this whould have even beem in the interest of kadima.
to change a foundation law (thats the closest thing that israel has for a constitution) you need 80 members majority for instance.

because you see, the settlers are very losly tied to the israeli laws. had there was no jewish majority for their pullout. the settlers whould have roited like they have never rioted before, now atleast when there is a jewish majority. they will still riot. but there is nothing they can do about it.

as for the pensioners party (they are so cute, they look like you want to help them cross the road) they dont even want a minister position to be in the coalition. they just want to head a newly formed "ministery for elderly people" they will vote whatever the coalition will tell them to vote.

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RickyB
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Donald - Technically, yes. However, if Olmert tried to pass something as huge as this with less than an absolute majority, it simply wouldn't stick.

Take the first disengagement: The vote on whether or not to do it was 72-39. The vote on whether or not to postpone doing it was 72-42. That had a lot with the fact that the public was solidly behind it even when push came to shove. So you pretty much NEED one of the orthodox party - preferably the larger Shas - to at least abstain if not vote "yes".

Hannibal - I'm pretty sure Raffi Eitan can still kill you (or me) with the flick of a wrist. Think of him as "cute" at your own peril. The man is a stone cold killer, and I'm just glad he did it for MY side.

The point is, don't believe what you read. These are 6 other unknown individuals. You have no idea what they're thinking and how committed they are to anything.

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Pelegius
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Hannibal, you surprise me by voting the way I would have. Well, technicly, I prefer Meretz for foreign policy and Shinui for other issues, but Labour seemed like a good comprimise.
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Hannibal
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luckily, there are only 100,000 or so israelis that share your point of view [Smile]
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RickyB
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Shinui for other issues? You're a rabid free-market, screw the poor kinda guy?
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Pelegius
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I am a liberal, yes. Perhaps I was wrong in my judgement of Shinui, which I must admit to have declared support for knowing only that it is the Israeli member of Liberal International, a group which I strongly support.
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Hannibal
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the problem that shinui faced in these ellections, is that people forgot what shas can do. now shas will be in the coalition, and shinui will rise again in the next ellections
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RickyB
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Sorry, dude, your insistance that a political party's membership in some large international group can accurately indicate its actual nature causes me to [Roll Eyes]

Your approach to politics strikes me (I gotta say this) a little like a guy trying to ride a bicycle according to instructions in a manual.

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Fel2.0
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Well, if I were an Israeli I would have voted for Shinui in the previous election, but they would have totally lost my vote in this most recent election. Their leaders are a bunch of idiots and their party completely collapsed. I would have voted Kadima, although it is unfortionate that they will have to allay with Labour and Meretz now plus a new party that doesn't stand for anything expect taking other people's money and giving it to themselves (Shas or the Geezer party; it applies to both).

[ April 02, 2006, 12:01 PM: Message edited by: Fel2.0 ]

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Hannibal
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welcome to israel Fel2.0

thats why only 60% of the israelis voted. because they are tired of israeli politics, just because of those reasons.


as i said earlier, they all suck

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RickyB
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Fel, I didn't mean that voting for Shinui was beyond the pale (although I personally detest them), but based on what Pelegius has written here in the past, I seriously doubt he'd dig them.

As for the geezers - I'm very happy they'll be in a position to get themselves a nice piece of the pie. I can only hope they'll get a deal that will last a while.

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Pelegius
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The problem with Israeli politics is that they make no sense to any logical person whatso ever. I still find it hard to believe that any Western country has major parties divided by ethnic background, yet Israel does. As a free-market liberal I am disinclined to support Labour, as somebody in his right mind I am disinclined to support Likud, The Sharon fan-club or any of the religious parties. I thus choose Shinui more by what it is not than what it is, although I find it strange that Israel, like the U.S. but unlike Europe, cannot find a decent free-market liberal party. Of course, as the Peace process is currently more important to me than any other issue (as it apparently is to most Israelis except for the geezer party) I would doubtless have voted for Labour, despite my scepticism about their economics.
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Fel2.0
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Well, I think Israel's politics could be improved by raising the threshold to get into the Knesset to say 5% from 2%. Proportional representation doesn't work if you have too many parties participating.

quote:
although I find it strange that Israel, like the U.S. but unlike Europe, cannot find a decent free-market liberal party.
I don't mean to tangent here, but what parties in Europe are decent free-market liberals?
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Hannibal
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Pelegius, what peace process? did you know that in these ellection no israeli party even included the word "peace" in their campaign?

it used to be "making a safe peace" (likud) or (peace now) etc.

nobody talks about peace right now, they all talk about unilateral seperation

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Pelegius
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Unilateral sepertation is the first step to peace (and probably to Palestine collapsing in on itself if other post-colonial casess are anything to judge by. )

Fel, European Liberal Democrat and Reform Party and its various members in the E.U., such as the Liberal Democrats in the U.K.

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RickyB
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I thought you were against unilateral separation [Big Grin]
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Hannibal
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yes me too
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Pelegius
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Oh, I was, before Hamas won the elections. Now I stand meerly against incomplete redistribution (I want Israel out of the West Bank, not mostly out of it) and in favour of legal immigration between the two states.
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RickyB
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legal immigration between the two states? Meaning what - that any Palestinian from Gaza can come live in Israel? Ain't gonna happen. Why on earth would you want that, and why would we need this whole business of two states if that were the case? Israel could just annex the occupied territories and wait until it had an Arab majority... Thing is, we don't want that, which is why most Israelis now realize we got to give the territories up.

As for the West Bank - I'm against greedy land grabs by Israel. However, there is the small matter of the Aquifer. That I want my side to control. So sorry.

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