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» The Ornery American Forum » General Comments » Exploring a scenario - NK true believers

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Author Topic: Exploring a scenario - NK true believers
LoverOfJoy
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Redskull recently said this and it got me thinking.

quote:
That may be why China isn't really willing to do much with North Korea. Sure it could send 5 men for every single North Korean, and essentially conquer the place. But now he wild card thrown into the mix is that North Korea has both the missile and now the bomb and range needed to turn Manchuria into an atomic waste land. China knows this, and is keeping its fingers crossed that North Korea continues to focus its irrational hatred on the United States and Japan.
I started imagining a what if scenario. Please don't take this as what I think is really possible/likely but just exploring an idea.

What if China did end up sending in 5 men for every Korean and took over North Korea. What would happen? Let's just imagine that they got inside intelligence that N.K. was planning on taking over S.K. and that China was next on the list. China quickly acts before any nuclear weapon could be aimed at them. This raises a few questions.

1. How would North Koreans receive the Chinese? Would they be grateful? Would it become another Iraq? Would it turn into guerilla fighting for a decade? How much have the North Koreans really bought into the propoganda they've been fed since birth? Are they true believers or would they rejoice that the wicked witch is finally dead?

2. What would China do next? Would they help the N. Koreans set up a government while keeping forces there a la Iraq? Would they just ingest the whole country into China as another province with imported Chinese leaders? Would they then move on to South Korea? Taiwan? Would they just immediately pull out once the nuclear threat was gone?

3. How would the US and the world community respond? In some ways, maybe the US would be glad that China was taking care of the threat. But once China took over, that would forever shift the dynamics in the region. Would America just roll with the punches and play nice by trading with the new North Korean province of China? Would they increase sanctions against China? Would the UN insist that China pull out? Would the world community simply be suspiciously silent on the whole matter?

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KnightEnder
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I don't know.

KE

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TommySama
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1. From what I've heard, the NKians are all oppressed. Being switched from one oppressive jackass dictatorship to another might hardly matter to them. If they did revolt....

2. China would probably do what the US should have done in Iraq; brutally destroy the will of their enemies to fight. I don't imagine the Chinese government would be to worried about killing women and children and (non-combatant) men en masse (is that the correct use of that latin phrase??) China's expanding it's empire might...

3. Freak out the US and some of the rest of the world, however I think we'd be more greatful than worried. Maybe the UN would even ask China to leave it and allow a democracy to flourish in it's place. Which will than be allowed to create nuclear weapons; as long as they're free.


At least theoretically...

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kenmeer livermaile
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Since we're plotting extreme 'what if?' charts, I'll lay my money down that NK passes through this current nuclear standoff, lil' Kim's imminent death (by natural or other means), and a possible period of inner turmoil, without intervention by the USA or China (but probably amid some very aggressive throat-clearing by the Japanese).
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RickyB
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A few thoughts:

1) I'll say again: there is practically no danger of NK using their bomb aggressively. These people love for you to think that they're insane, but when it comes to survival they're very calculating.

2) You don't need to create a democracy in NK. The minute the Kim regime falls, the two Koreas will be unified (I even have a solution for the destabilizing mass migration the South fears).

3) However, if China did invade NK I think, sadly, that eventually the world would swallow it. But the friction would hasten WW3.

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