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Author Topic: Tommorow it begins.....
Hannibal
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it is the 14th of august (two days to my birthday by the way, ill be 22) and slowly but surely we arrived to the moment of truth.

2mmorow israel begins the pullout from gaza.

will the pullout go through smoothly?
will the palesitnians attack during the pullout?
will the settlers attack israeli soldiers with firearms?
will there be calm after the pullout? or will the palestinians keep launching missiles on israel and send more suicide bombers?
what will israel's response will and should be if such thing happens?


all that and next in the following weeks, stay tuned to israel.

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RickyB
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This is gonna sound macabre, but I'm estimating about 5-7 casualties. I don't think there will be a firearm attack, but probably a knife, blunt object, scalding oil, like that. Could be a gun though.

Hamas or Islamic Jihad will almost certainly attack some during the pullout. Maybe even the extremist Fatah splinters.

I'd be shocked if the Palestinians don't attack after the pullout.

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Hannibal
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who knows how many more soldiers who listen to their rabbies and not to the army officers, like that terrorist from two weeks ago, exist?

i hope that if the palestinians attack during and after the pullout, we will respond in such a force, that was not released in the middle east since octover 1973

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RickyB
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For once I tend to agree. If they attack during the pullout we need to react with punitive force.
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Hannibal
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you know Ricky [Smile]

i find that you are usually the first poster in my topics [Smile]

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Jesse
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How's that "punitive force" idea been working out fer you guys?
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Hannibal
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we never used it so far

we are using about 0.000000001% of our military prowess against the palestinians.

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RickyB
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Not too well, but if they shoot when we're ripping our brothers and sisters off the walls and retreating, then it's hard to concieve of any circumstance where they won't. In which case, there really isn't any other alternative. Besides, Hannibal is actually right (hyperbolically so, of course [Smile] ). For all that we kill far more Palestinians than they do us, we don't even go as hard as the US does in Iraq.

Crushing Palestinian resistannce by brute force is unfeasable because of international reaction, not because the Palestinians definitely can't be cowed in and of themselves.

They're a lot less pathetic as far as national cohesion and resolve than they were back in '48, but it simply hasn't been tested.

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Jesse
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Oh, some of them will attack, I have no doubt. As long as an idiot with an explosive and a dupe to strap it on can disrupt the peace process...idiots with explosives are going to keep strapping them to dupes.

Increased use of force against the Palestinians, so far, only seems to strengthen their resolve and hatred, but if you think there is some magical point where the violence would suddenly serve to humble them instead, feel free to ignore the lessons of history.

What's funny to me is that while the occupation of the West Bank continues with no end in sight, and the unilateral wall is being constructed far beyond the '67 borders, you guys seem to think the Palestinians owe a truce during the withdrawl from Gaza?

Why? I mean, without getting into the absolutely immoral nature of all attacks upon civilians, why shouldn't they attack while Israelis attempt a strategic withdrawl on one flank in order to better secure another?

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RickyB
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Truce? on attacks from Gaza, yes.

As for "far beyond" - depends on how you define far. I'm actually making a movie about the demonstrations against the land grab and the stupid route of the wall, so I know all about it. However, I have no patience for those who are against any sort of wall whatsoever. A wall is of the utmost necessity. In addition, the '67 border is not entirely applicable. we'll have to compensate the Palestinians with land elsewhere for about 1.5% of the west bank that we're gonna have to annex. Still, the route of the wall is hideously stupid and short-sightedly greedy in many places. It will have to be fixed within 1-2 years tops.

I also agree that without a pullout from the west bank, the pullout from Gaza accomplishes very little. It still does afford the Palestinians, for the first time, a well defined, continuous piece of land to govern.

I'm not saying we should roll in with tanks and bombers in response to every idiot with a Qassam rocket, but if the PA won't act strongly against such attacks, we will.

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Hannibal
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look Jesse, we obviously cant force our existance on the palestinians, and then put road blocks and make their life hard so that our settlers could go as they please. that is aside

but the wall is a great idea, we will never have a partner in the palestinian ranks, fixing the situation on-sidedly is the only available option.

and yes, history has alot of examples where the bigger side overwhelmed the weak side to subbmision

sharon should in his speach to the nation he will make tomorrow, make it clear that if a qassam rocket will fall on israel, during and/or after the pullout, or a suicide attack will be carried out, we will flatten whole blocks in gaza with no remorse and no consideration

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Hannibal
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i will add my support to Rick's post,
the current wall is somewhat annexing, it should be less hostile i admit, but it will never be purley on the 67 borders, and i have no problems with israel giving palestine territories to compensate square mile for square mile

the way i see it, the palestinians can do whatever they want with their territories once we leave, but if they attack us, we whipe the out, no remorse. we will consider this an attack just like as if syria attacked us

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Adam Masterman
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quote:
it is the 14th of august (two days to my birthday by the way, ill be 22)
Wow, I had no idea you were that young. I expected you to be midle aged, don't know why.

quote:


will the palesitnians attack during the pullout?

Ricky seems to think so. It boggles my mind to think that they would, isn't this at least part of what they claim to want? That said, it wouldn't suprise me. The people actually carrying out the violence among the Palestinians strike me as fundamentally irrational maniacs.

Adam

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Hannibal
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Adam, shall i take that as a compliment? [Smile]


they want the pullout ofcourse, but they want to make it apear a great victory on their side, as if we are running from them.

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WarrsawPact
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Yeah, people expected me to be older too...

But alas, a mere 20.

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Jesse
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Nah, hannibal is young, I thought it was obvious personally. He's an essentially compasionate and decent person who never the less expresses a gang-banger mentality about violence and has an overly simplistic defination of "us" and "them".

I grew up in the inner city in the late 80's and early 90's, years when 20-30 thousand young men a year were dying in turf wars in the US, and I've known plenty of young men who viewed the world in the same reactionary and overly simplistic way.

The on going situation in palastine/israel is no different than any other gang war. It's the same idiotic "one of ours in the hospital, one of yours in the morgue" nonsense.

The good news is, intelligent people eventually manage to evolve ethicly, unless they make a wilfull and concious decision to use their intellect to justify their lack of personal development beyond a juvenile state.

Sharon is sacraficing some turf in order to solidify his hold elswhere. He's not the first gang leader to do so and it's not a meaningful step toward peace.

As far as the wall goes, I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but all of us know it encompasses a lot more than is "absolutely necessary".

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KnightEnder
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The 16th Hannibal? That's my oldest son's birthday too. He'll be 16. Happy Birthday.

KE

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RickyB
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Jesse, if these were merely troops you'd be right, but they're not. You are ignoring what a huge obstacle to peace the settlers are AND the power of precedent. Plus, you're erring in not appreciating the effort, weich naturally gives rise to a "why bother" sentiment.
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Hannibal
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The on going situation in palastine/israel is no different than any other gang war. It's the same idiotic "one of ours in the hospital, one of yours in the morgue" nonsense.


no its not, you are the one who tend to over simplify things, this is nothing like that, or the "circle of violance" as the CNN calls it.
it is that the palestinians, are dead serious, in obliterating us. note that after the pullout they virtually still promise nothing, they dont promise any security to israel, or that the missile attacks will stop. they dont promise going through with the road map. EVERY agreement that we EVER signed with them since 1993 they did not hold to their words.

it much more sophisticated.

israel has acted the "responsible" as you call it, and did not retaliate after very heavy attacks by the palestinians, many suicide attacks that killed 20 civilians came un answered because we "wanted to give the palestinians a chance to get a grip on things", the world it seems, lets the palestinians attack us, we get the 24 hours of sympathy, but basically the world thinks :
"ok the palestinians are poor, miserable, and divided, the palestinian government cant contain them so its your problem - eat it for the sake of the peace process"

so what i think is that - there never will be a peace process, because the palestinians even under the "reasonable" Abu-mazen, state that they will never relinquish the "right of return" (if you dont know what it is, just ask) there is no dealing with them. thats why we israelis will pullout eventually from all the territories. but if the palesitnians will attack us, we should not "eat it" we should level them, cause such an horrendous damage that they will cry about it for generations, that they should realize THEIR mistake of thinking that terrorism brought them somthing, and that dealing with us did not.

"Sharon is sacraficing some turf in order to solidify his hold elswhere. He's not the first gang leader to do so and it's not a meaningful step toward peace."

by that comparison GWB is the king pin isnt he?
any way, even sharon knows that a pullout from the west bank in some level is unavoidable. he merely wants it to be as little as possible - remmember that back in 1999 we ofered the palestinians 97% of the 67 borders, and we offered to the last 3 precent from inside israel to replace the city of Ariel and other large settlment blocks. the palestinians as we all know refused because they didnt let go of the "right of return" and started the intifadah. which caused 1000 dead israelis and 5000 dead palestinains. so we build the wall in order to block the palestinians from entering israel, it should have been made back in the 70's.

and by the way, in case you fear we will blcok the west bank, allready there are talks that jordan will train the palestinian millitary, and that there will be access for palestine to jordan.


Happy birthday to your son KnightEnder

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Sancselfieme
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How can you seriously expect the Palestinians to act or work as a whole? They have been fragmented by their own extremist leaders AND by Israel. They are destabalized at every turn. Any leader that attempts to take "responsibility" for the Palestinians as a whole is assaulted by both Israel AND the Palestinians.
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Hannibal
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Israel did not hinder Abu-mazer, so far, after he came to power, we didnt attack gaza in any way, even though there WERE terror attacks, and missile launches since he came to power and israelis died for nothing, our government gave abu manzen a grace period, and that period is not over yet.

Israel was also fragmented in 1948, there were lots of organizations fighing the brittish, the arabs, and each other, but we had a strong leader who cracked those organizations down, (read about the Altalena) and formed the IDF, the palestinians arent even thinking of doing that, and abu mazen is by no means a strong leader. and thats not israel's problem, israel's problem is that if the palestinians attack israel once israel does not hold palestinian territories - israel should whipe palestine, just as it whould have been the case had syria or egypt attacked israel.

and if the palestinians will do the sinister deed (like they allways do) of attacking israel during the hour of its pain (i.e - the pullout) we should also retaliate very severly.

How can you seriously expect the Palestinians to act or work as a whole?

I am not, neither all israelis, we have sobered up. we figured that the palestinians will never act as a whole, hence there is no dealing with them, hence WE are making unilateral actions.

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Everard
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Is it just me, or is the largest mistake israel is making in this pullout forcibly evacuating the settlers?

If I were in charge, I'd tell the settlers "Yeah, you don't HAVE to come, but if you refuse to leave this land, we're revoking your Israeli citizenship and we won't defend you if you get attacked."

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Pelegius
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Yeah, that might work. What they really need to do is draw the national borders and tolerate Jews in Palastein and Muslims in Israel. It's not that hard, Muslims and Jews live together fine in New York and Vancouver.
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javelin
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It's not that hard, Germans and Jews live in the same HUGE cities all the time.
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Pelegius
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Yes, they do and in small towns as well.
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Everard
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Muslims and jews also live fine within israel proper.

"What they really need to do is draw the national borders"

Well, yeah, this is kindof the hard part, isn't it?

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javelin
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Did I need to issue a sarcasm alert?
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Hannibal
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Is it just me, or is the largest mistake israel is making in this pullout forcibly evacuating the settlers?

If I were in charge, I'd tell the settlers "Yeah, you don't HAVE to come, but if you refuse to leave this land, we're revoking your Israeli citizenship and we won't defend you if you get attacked."


I WISH!!!

but we are "hurtin their hurtin" and "suffering their suffering" (yeah right.... crazy settlers get the FXXX out of there allready) and for some reason we dont do it, if i was incharge it was the same.

as for your examples.... not those muslims and jews. the things that live in the gush katif, and the gaza settlements are so crazy and fanatic, i allmost wish they stay there with the arabs so that they could kill each other and be done with it. you know what... i wish they will stay there. good for the rest of israel too.

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Hannibal
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today Sharon gave a speach to the nation

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3127884,00.html

he promises response in a way never seen before, if the palestinians will provoke israel after and during the pullout.

i hope he will be true to his word when (not if) the palestinians will test this promise

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RickyB
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Ev, would that we could do that. But then they'd get slaughtered, do some terrible laughtering of their own first, and our public wouldn't stand for it. It would poison the whole process. We'd be held responsible for their crimes in the eyes of the world, so what would be the point?

Also, you have to understand that the settlements in the Gaza Strip are insane, in that they are sprawling suburban/rural type places in the middle of the most over populated piece of land in the world. The settlements of the Qatif block basically choke off the natural expansion space of the city of Khan Younis.

Even if relations between Palestinians and Israelis were 100 times better, there's no way the Palestinian authority could tolerate their continued existence. The palestinians need the land too badly. It's also why we couldn't make a deal to leave and sell the houses. The Palestinians have no use for this type of housing, and it would only cause resentment towards the lucky few that would get them. Where 8,500 Jews have hitherto lived, at least 10 times as many Palestinians will be settled. Probably more. And still be better off than they are now.

Besides, even though the Gaza settlers aren't as whacked as some of the West Bank ones, it just wouldn't work socially. Too much bad blood. What we need right now is separation. Let both sides have a break from each other and learn that their real problems aren't due to the other side. Then we can start cooperating sensibly.

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Hannibal
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yes what he said,


too bad that the palestinians, "say" that they want a seperation, but what they really want is to keep on living with the settlers so that they could have legitimacy to launch terror attacks on israel

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Hannibal
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Happy birthday to me

Happy birthday to your son KnightEnder

(its the 16th in israel right now... time diference you know...)

[ August 15, 2005, 06:06 PM: Message edited by: Hannibal ]

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Jesse
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Happy birthday Hannibal.

The oversimplification Hannibal, is the "them" and "us".

The fact is that most Palestinians simply want a reasonable material standard of living, self-determination, and liberty. They have no idea how to aquire these things and have been convinced that the existance of Israel is the reason they don't have them.

I absolutely agree that their gang leaders have played a massive role in depriving them of these things, but your gang leaders aren't at all innocent in the matter either.

Something you should be aware of, though, hannibal, is how incredibly biased coverage of the situation is in the U.S.

I don't mean the Bias you percieve, "poor suffering palestinians" ect., but the bias in regards to reporting of terrorist attacks.

I watch the news, I read the LA times, but the only reason I knew about the attack on that Druze neighborhood is because you told me. We had the exact same sort of coverage of the situation in Northern Ireland for 25 years, most Americans being aware of IRA bombing and British retaliation, but completely ignorant of the violence commited by the loyalist paramilitary terrorist groups.

Only one side in this conflict CHOSE this conflict. It's not the palestinians.

The existance of Israel, much like the existance of the US, is an accomplished fact. There is no going back. Giving Israel back to the Palestinians would be just as impossible as giving the North America back to it's indigenous peoples.

Yet, most of us today can see that "manifest destiny" was pretty damned flimsy pretext for anhilating hundreds of cultures, the theft of land, forcing hundreds of thousands of children into lives of poverty, ect.

Someday, most Israelis will realize that Zionism was an equaly flimsy pretext for commiting the same crime on a smaller scale.

You can't bring your victim back to life, but you can, at least, appologize to his family.

Shots against Bush's deeply flawed foriegn policy don't cause me any sting Hannibal...I'm the guy who left the country to avoid funding his insanity...until I figured out that I could just choose to make so little as to not have to provide him with any significant amount of taxes.

Don't get me wrong, I think the pull-out from Gaza is a great thing...but I expect some idiot with a grenade to give Sharon another excuse to do what he loves.

In any event, I honestly believe that you're a decent young man and that one of these days you're going to recognize your own racism and be repeled by it.

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Hannibal
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ok....


"The fact is that most Palestinians simply want a reasonable material standard of living, self-determination, and liberty. They have no idea how to aquire these things and have been convinced that the existance of Israel is the reason they don't have them."

have you talked to them? how do you know what most palestinians want? and, if they have been convinced, doesnt that mean that most palestinians want israel to be destoyed?

most(if not all) palestinians defenetly want a better life standard, but its not their primary goal. their primary goal is for israel to sease to exist.


"but the only reason I knew about the attack on that Druze neighborhood is because you told me."

that gives me some points on credibility no? [Smile]

"The existance of Israel, much like the existance of the US, is an accomplished fact."

tell that to the iranis.
The only reason why we have peace with some arab countries, is that they have come to realize that, and it wasnt easy for us to make them understand.

"Someday, most Israelis will realize that Zionism was an equaly flimsy pretext for commiting the same crime on a smaller scale."

your idea of zionism is a crazed religious fanatic settler who settles in the middle of an arab populatoin. that is not what zionism is.
zionism, was started a hundred years ago as a completley secular idea. the young people who came to israel back then, founded villages of their own and worked the land, where there was virtually no one, and since they didnt know the craft very well, and wanted no one to help them, many of them failed or died.

the religious fanatics of today "hijacked" the name of zaionism, but they are not. they are facists are racitst, (even more then I)

"...but I expect some idiot with a grenade to give Sharon another excuse to do what he loves. "

so basically, you say that no matter what, we should forever live with the fact that some palestinian will suicide attack here, and laucnh a rocket there. and do nothing? because as you agree with me, the palestinian government does not have control on the palestinian people.
with no knowlage of sharons's faviorite things.
if it was up to me, Jesse, any attack on israeli (within the 67 borders) soil, whould have been respoded very decicivlly.

and by the way... you left the states? where to?

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Hannibal
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Pullout update (what this thread was all about...) (12:31 israel time)

this is the second day, and the gloves are out.
some of the settlers, were convinced to live gaza. but other extreme settlers, god mad by this, and started damaging and blocking tracks, who came to carry the propety of the leaving settlers.

we've got burned tires, and blocked roads, and hundreds of settlers blocking the road, if they wont relent... the army and police will step in

keep you posted

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DonaldD
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"Only one side in this conflict CHOSE this conflict. It's not the palestinians." And you point out a Hannibalian oversimplification?
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Hannibal
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wow i had so many typos and grammar mistakes...
here is the post again:

some of the settlers, were convinced by the army to leave gaza, and thus the army sent tracks over to carry their belongings. but other more extreme settlers, saw this got mad, and decided to block the roads and damage the tracks.

since then the army intervened, and the roads are somewhat clearer.

i need to clarify that most of the problems are caused by settlers from the west bank who infilitrated the gaza strip, the ones from gaza strip, most of them, are in the process of leaving.

who ever will stay after midnight today, will lose 30% of the compensation moeny, and will be evicted by force. (13:40) israel time

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Hannibal
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thats it.

from now on, the settlers presence in gaza is illegal by israeli law.

settlers in more extreme settlements have barricaded themselves inside synagogs. unbelievable how insane these people can be

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Funean
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Hannibal, what are folks around you (not directly involved) saying, now that it's underway? That is, what's the scuttlebutt in the cities?
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Hannibal
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where i live? people think that the army should not have went there to evict the crazed settlers.

the army should simply notify them, when it moves all his bases away from gaza, and close it.
thus any jew who stays behind is the citizen of palestine.

thats what people around me say [Smile]
but i live in a leftish city and such are my friends and surroudings.

the majority of israel is adamant that the withraw should take place, but there are questions about whats next. there are several opinions :

the lefties think that this is only the begining and that israel should use the moment to withraw from the settlments in the west bank, or atleast to try again to negotiate with the plaestinians for some sort of an agreemnt

the centralists think that now israel has done its part, and that the ball is in the palestinian hands, if they really want to make peace, they should show maturship, take conrtol over gaza, centralize and/or dismantle the many militant groups in to one palestinian force.

the rightwingers think that israel succombed to terror, that the pullout is a major mistake, that we give alot to the palestinians and we get no assurance in return, and that now the palestinians will only bring the missiles closer to Tel-Aviv.

the religious think that the land of israel was leased to abraham by god, and thus, the israeli government have no right to deal with it, and give it away because its not theirs to give, thats why they are right now fighting over there.


all aspects of israeli politics i think agree that if the palestinians attack even with a minor incident, after and during the withrawal, we should respond in kind never seen before on the palstinias.

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