Ornery.org
  Front Page   |   About Ornery.org   |   World Watch   |   Guest Essays   |   Contact Us

The Ornery American Forum Post New Topic  Post A Reply
my profile login | register | search | faq | forum home

  next oldest topic   next newest topic
» The Ornery American Forum » General Comments » A statistical teaser for someone with too much time

 - UBBFriend: Email this page to someone!    
Author Topic: A statistical teaser for someone with too much time
Pete at Home
Member
Member # 429

 - posted      Profile for Pete at Home   Email Pete at Home   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
True or false:

There are more living Americans, than dead ones.

Posts: 44193 | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
WarrsawPact
Member
Member # 1275

 - posted      Profile for WarrsawPact   Email WarrsawPact   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
How do you count the unborn? [Smile]
Posts: 7500 | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Ivan
Member
Member # 1467

 - posted      Profile for Ivan   Email Ivan   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
And are we talking US citizens or people who have lived on the two American continents?
Posts: 1710 | Registered: Jan 2004  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
JohnLocke
Member
Member # 68

 - posted      Profile for JohnLocke   Email JohnLocke   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
PanAmericanos. More alive today.

Statistics used: 50% likelihood of correct answer.

[Smile]

Posts: 663 | Registered: Oct 2000  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Are they still Americans if they are dead? I don't think they count as citizens anymore...
Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
javelin
Member
Member # 1284

 - posted      Profile for javelin   Email javelin   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by DonaldD:
Are they still Americans if they are dead? I don't think they count as citizens anymore...

You'd have to define "person" first. [Wink]
Posts: 8614 | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Everard
unregistered


 - posted            Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
THere are approximately 300 million americans alive today (closer to 295, but whatever).

In 1910, there were about 95 million.

In 1810, there were about 8 million.

Definetely more alive then dead.

IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
OpsanusTau
Member
Member # 2350

 - posted      Profile for OpsanusTau   Email OpsanusTau   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Yeah, but Ev, you're not taking into account the "turnover" rate of population.

(I mean - let's say for the sake of argument that there were 80 million Americans alive in 1890. How many of those were *still* alive in 1910 to be part of that 95 million, and how many of that 95 million were new individuals? You need birth and death rates, I think, and not just straight addition of gross population figures from sequential years.)

Posts: 3791 | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
OpsanusTau
Member
Member # 2350

 - posted      Profile for OpsanusTau   Email OpsanusTau   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
And also:
Are we counting native Americans?
Because with a human presence on the continent dating back >12000 years, I can't imagine that there are more living than dead Americans.
It's only if we limit ourselves to "citizens of the USA" or something that it even becomes interesting.

Posts: 3791 | Registered: Mar 2005  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Pete at Home
Member
Member # 429

 - posted      Profile for Pete at Home   Email Pete at Home   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Let's say US citizens, according to 2006 legal standards. (So we don't count the unborn, which would require too much speculation and argument about what a person is). That means that even though many native Americans weren't counted in 1800, we should count them for this purpose.

I'm leaning towards Ev's statement that there are more alive than dead, but that seems kind of amazing. And OT's quite right that there are more details we neeed to take into account.

Since we're talking US citizens, we should only go back to 1789, the writing of the constitution, when the possibility of someone being a US citizen first came about.

[ March 27, 2006, 02:32 PM: Message edited by: Pete at Home ]

Posts: 44193 | Registered: Jun 2001  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
javelin
Member
Member # 1284

 - posted      Profile for javelin   Email javelin   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
So, now we need a reliable figure of the total number of people born. I posit that this is impossible. [Smile]
Posts: 8614 | Registered: Sep 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
Everard
unregistered


 - posted            Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
Ops-
I know. Its a rough guess. In order to go from the two numbers I looked at, to having more dead then alive, you need about 200 million people to have been born or come to the US after 1810 and died before 1910, or to have come to the US or been born after 1910 and be dead now.

I don't think that is the case, but I could be wrong.

(One other assumption: The number of US citizens who died before 1810 is negligible compared to the figures we're dealing with).

IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
DonaldD
Member
Member # 1052

 - posted      Profile for DonaldD   Email DonaldD   Send New Private Message       Edit/Delete Post   Reply With Quote 
One article on population and mortality limiting itself to non-amerindian populations. Also, check out the table of historical birthrates and life-expectancy.

quote:
The population of the British mainland colonies increased from several hundred non-Amerindian individuals in the early seventeenth century to about 2.5 million (2 million whites and about half a million blacks) in 1780. Birthrates were high, ranging between over forty and over fifty live births per one thousand people per annum. The high fertility of American women attracted comment from late eighteenth-century observers, including Benjamin Franklin and Thomas Malthus. Mortality rates were probably moderate, with crude death rates ranging from about twenty per one thousand people per annum to over forty. We know a good deal about mortality rates in New England, somewhat less about the Middle Colonies, and least about the South. But apparently mortality was lower from Pennsylvania and New Jersey northward, and higher in the South. Life expectancy at birth ranged from the late twenties to almost forty.
At any rate, using the census figures and the (white) life expectancies from 1790 through 1960 gives about 200,000,000 deaths (with about 25,000,000 deaths occuring during the 1960s). If we assume no increase in number of deaths per annum in the following 3.5 decades (I know, unrealistic) you get another 90,000,000 deaths to date, for a total of about 290,000,000 deaths overall.

This is really rough, but it looks like (ignoring Amerindian deaths completely for the period, and assuming the whole population was white) it's a toss up, leaning towards more dead than alive because I assumed conservative parameters in all cases and ignored Amerindians completely.

Posts: 10751 | Registered: May 2003  |  IP: Logged | Report this post to a Moderator
   

Quick Reply
Message:

HTML is not enabled.
UBB Code™ is enabled.
UBB Code™ Images not permitted.
Instant Graemlins
   


Post New Topic  Post A Reply Close Topic   Feature Topic   Move Topic   Delete Topic next oldest topic   next newest topic
 - Printer-friendly view of this topic
Hop To:


Contact Us | Ornery.org Front Page

Powered by Infopop Corporation
UBB.classic™ 6.7.1