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Why no one can touch the Pats, why the Eagles still won't make it to the big game, and why Mike Martz is the worst coach since Rich Kotite

When I was growing up, my parents always told me to keep my priorities in order. That's sound advice, and I thank them for it to this day. So it has been with that advice in mind that I have, over the last decade or so, centered my entire life around pro football season. I pay no attention to Dick Clark and Times Square -- early September is my New Year's. Super Bowl Sunday is my Christmas. The Pro Bowl is like one of those crappy Monday holidays that no one cares about (like, say, Labor Day . . . or, even worse, Flag Day). My favorite spring holiday is not Easter, but Draft Day. And what is Thanksgiving but just an excuse to watch football? (Come on, you don't actually believe that whole pilgrim story, do you?)

My parents are very proud of me.

And so The Most Wonderful Time of the Year is upon us again. Right now I feel like Ray Kinsella in Field of Dreams when little Karen comes into the parlor and says, "Daddy? There's a man out there on your lawn." For me, this is the greatest and most anticipated day of the year, and I shant miss a moment of it. It should come as no surprise that I do not have a girlfriend. And if I did, I probably wouldn't be seeing her on Sunday, or this Thursday night, or Monday night. Unless she loved football. Priorities.

The season will be ushered in this time around with the Patriots-Colts game this Thursday and a star-studded NFL celebration show. Because nothing says "football season is here" like Mary J. Blige and Elton John.

It's odd, looking back on last year. Do you remember that, two weeks into the season, rumors started swirling that Bill Belichick was on the hot seat following a poor start and well-documented grumblings from veteran players? And then just a couple of months later, the Pats were already a practical shoo-in for the Super Bowl.

The NFC gets even more bizarre. Think about it this way: the NFC Championship Game featured two teams that probably shouldn't have even been there. The Eagles were there only because the Packers' defense suddenly and inexplicably forgot how to play football on what should have been a game-clinching 4th-and-26. The Panthers were only there because Mike Martz is an idiot. (Hopefully, most of you recall his inexcusable decision to go for the tie instead of a probable win against the Panthers in round two. More on this later. Much more.)

But alas, things worked out the way they did, and the Panthers somehow nearly got themselves crowned World Champions. In the end, the Patriots pulled it out, and this year look to stake their claim to the "dynasty" label, with a chance to become the only team other than the Dallas Cowboys (1992-95) to win three Super Bowls in four years. Sure, there are a lot of prognosticators out there trying their darndest to outsmart us all and "predict" the NFL's next "surprise" champion. For example, Peter King picked the Jaguars. The Sporting News picked (gulp) Jake Plummer and the Broncos. At the risk of taking the easy way out, I'm going with the Pats again. Hey . . . the NFL needs another dynasty anyway. Without further ado.

2004 PREDICTIONS
(*denotes Wild Card)

AFC EAST
1. New England Patriots 12-4
2. New York Jets 10-6*
3. Buffalo Bills 7-9
4. Miami Dolphins 5-11

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens 9-7
2. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-8
3. Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
4. Cleveland Browns 4-12

AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts 11-5
2. Tennessee Titans 10-6*
3. Jacksonville Jaguars 8-8
4. Houston Texans 6-10

AFC WEST
1. Kansas City Chiefs 11-5
2. Denver Broncos 9-7
3. Oakland Raiders 6-10
4. San Diego Chargers 3-13

NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
2. Dallas Cowboys 11-5*
3. Washington Redskins 7-9
4. New York Giants 5-11

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers 11-5
2. Minnesota Vikings 10-6
3. Detroit Lions 8-8
4. Chicago Bears 4-12

NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6
2. Carolina Panthers 8-8
3. Atlanta Falcons 8-8
4. New Orleans Saints 7-9

NFC WEST
1. Seattle Seahawks 11-5
2. St. Louis Rams 10-6*
3. Arizona Cardinals 6-10
4. San Francisco 49ers 3-13

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP: New England over Indianapolis

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP: Green Bay over Seattle

SUPER BOWL: NEW ENGLAND over GREEN BAY

NFL MVP: Ahman Green, GREEN BAY

COACH OF THE YEAR: Jon Gruden, TAMPA BAY

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Larry Fitzgerald, ARIZONA

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: Sean Taylor, WASHINGTON

AFC EAST

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 12-4

Okay, first of all, let me get some gripes off my chest. Number one, Tom Brady is not - I repeat, NOT - the next Joe Montana. He's a great young quarterback with maturity, poise and leadership skills beyond his years - that much is clear. But can we please cease and desist with all comparisons to Montana? We're talking about the greatest quarterback who ever played the game, okay? If Brady keeps getting better over the next decade and ends up winning eight Super Bowls, then we'll talk. Until then, don't waste my time. Let's not forget that Jerry Stackhouse was once dubbed "the next Michael Jordan." 'Nuff said.

However, Tom Brady is still the quarterback for the best team in football. I know, I know, I've heard all offseason how hard it is to repeat, how parity has made it too hard, how the Patriots missed the playoffs the season after their first title, how the moons of Saturn aren't in place -- save it. This is a team who survived near disaster at the beginning of last season to win 17 games in a row. Think about that for a second. If the Pats can survive last September -- as well as all of last year's injuries -- they can survive anything.

Like the rest of the PGA Tour in regard to Tiger Woods, over the next few years the rest of the league will begin to catch up with Bill Belichick. As of right now, he's still way ahead of all of them. It's funny how owners like Daniel Snyder keep spending millions and millions every offseason to try to buy themselves a champion, when the recipe for a championship team -- perhaps even a dynasty -- is staring them right in the face.

Belichick is famous for bringing in solid veterans who fit nicely into his system. That said, the Pats, thanks to some shrewd deal-making by Belichick and owner Bob Craft, have built a team that is loaded with youth. A no-name offensive line that allowed just 32 sacks last year. Three talented wide-outs with three years or less of experience. And, of course, Brady. The most important part of this year's team, however, is obvious. Corey Dillon. The Pats won two titles with Antowain Smith, a solid but unspectacular back. Now add Dillon -- a similar type of runner, only much, much better -- and imagine what they can do. Opposing defenses are going to be lunch meat by the fourth quarter.

2. NEW YORK JETS 10-6*

No one seems to be paying much attention to the Jets this year, and for the life of me I can't figure out why. Two years ago, the Jets were the division champions. After making the playoffs in both of Herman Edwards' first two seasons at the helm, it's hard to believe that last year wasn't just an aberration, especially given Chad Pennington's wrist injury that led to the team's 0-4 start.

But how familiar does this sound? A talented team, with a young quarterback and a strong coaching staff, hovering under the radar . . .let's see, the Patriots, the Panthers . . . hmmm. Now, I'm not saying the Jets are going to go to the Super Bowl or anything. But this team is going to be dangerous. And if, by chance, the Patriots get upset in the first round, or Tom Brady goes down with a season-ending knee injury, leaving the door open, look out.

Chad Pennington, as long as he can stay healthy, is on the cusp of being an elite player -- yes, he's that good. Give him Santana Moss -- who exploded last season with 1,105 yards and 10 touchdowns -- Justin McCareins and Wayne Chrebet, and this could be one of the league's most explosive offenses. There are concerns about the defense, of course, which has undergone an overhaul in the coaching staff, with not only a new defensive coordinator but a new philosophy as well (more blitzing and man-to-man defense). Regardless, as long as Pennington can stay on the field, this is going to be one of those teams that no one wants to face in the playoffs.

3. BUFFALO BILLS 7-9

The polar opposite of last year's Patriots squad. After two games last season, the Bills were 2-0, had outscored their opponents 69-17 (including a 31-0 drubbing of the Pats) and looked like an early Super Bowl contender. And then they remembered that Gregg Williams was their coach, and things gradually fell apart.

Drew Bledsoe, the team's hero in 2002, had such an awful year that the Bills traded up to grab future QB J.P. Losman in the first round. Losman, by the way, is out for the season. The Ghastly New Uniform Curse strikes again.

And then there's the running back, um, situation. Travis Henry is a young, Pro Bowl back who is slowly being pushed out of town in favor of Willis McGahee. McGahee, whose Orange Bowl injury ranks right up there with Joe Theissmann and Jason Kendall, has not yet played a single snap in a regular season game, but somehow found it appropriate this offseason to demand a starting job anyway. Start me or trade me. Henry similarly made the same demand. Start me or trade me. Animosity almost certainly ensued, but of course behind closed doors. Henry and McGahee maintain that they are, indeed, close friends. You know, just like George Bush and Jacques Chirac.

Anyway, as for this team itself, there's another new coach (ex-Pittsburgh OC Mike Mularkey), a loaded defense (Takeo Spikes, Lawyer Milloy, Troy Vincent, London Fletcher, Nate Clements, Pat Williams), and a plethora of talent at the skill positions. You know, just like the last couple of years. If Mularkey is worth his salt, this team could compete in the next year or two. But not yet.

4. MIAMI DOLPHINS 5-11

A few points to make:

A) Dave Wannstedt is still the head coach.

B) Jay Fiedler is still the starting quarterback.

C) Larry Csonka is the starting running back.

D) The most difficult schedule in the NFL.

E) Those neon orange uniforms.

F) I can't repeat this enough: Dave Wannstedt and Jay Fiedler.

G) Hurricane Frances (hey, it's worth a shot)

That about sums it up.

AFC NORTH

1. BALTIMORE RAVENS 9-7

I got an interesting phone call the other day. It was Ravens head coach Brian Billick. What could he want? I asked myself. Turns out, he needed me to suit up and play wide receiver for the Ravens this year. Apparently, the wide receiving corps this year consists of Kevin Johnson, Travis Taylor, and Billick's three younger sisters. They were desperate. However, I passed on the opportunity. I've already got a job, I told him. And it doesn't require me to wear purple.

Yes, you guessed it -- that was "hyperbole." But seriously, folks -- I've heard a surprising amount of people this year refer to the Ravens as a Super Bowl contender. And I guess it's true; I mean, in today's NFL, if you make the playoffs, the past few years have proven you can go all the way. But the Ravens have got to get some offense, and I mean quick. Todd Heap is arguably the best tight end in the league, and second-year quarterback Kyle Boller has potential. But this team will still struggle to put points on the board. Still, they're a tough matchup because the defense, just four years after that massive overhaul, is one of the league's elite.

If the Ravens were in the AFC South, they probably wouldn't be a playoff team. In this division, they're still the team to beat.

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 8-8

If there's one thing you can say about the Pittsburgh Steelers during Bill Cowher's tenure, it's that they won't be out of the race for very long. They entered last season as the division favorite, and ended it fighting to stay out of the cellar. But the Steelers had a lot more talent last year than their record would indicate, and even more this year.

No doubt Cowher is aiming for a return to the playoffs, but the truth is this is a transition year in Pittsburgh -- from current starting QB Tommy "Remember When I Was MVP of the XFL?" Maddox, to first-round pick Ben Roethlisberger.

Long-time veteran Jerome Bettis is aging in dog years now, and so Duce Staley -- who's still got plenty left in the tank after splitting time in Philly the past few years -- was brought in as his replacement in the starting lineup. Staley will make this offense move. Not only is he a good runner both inside the tackles and out, but his prowess in the passing game will make him tough to defend.

The defensive backfield is still a major concern, but if Joey Porter, Kendrell Bell and Co. can put enough pressure on opposing quarterbacks, the Steelers may be able to get away with it. In a division with only one established team -- and a relatively shaky one at that -- the Steelers have the talent to compete. But Cowher will probably want to get Roethlisberger some playing time this season, and that means a lot of adjustments and, once he's in there, a lot of rookie mistakes.

3. CINCINNATI BENGALS 7-9

I'm not a huge fan of Carson Palmer the quarterback. It's nothing personal, it's just my personal feeling that he was more a product of Norm Chow's system during his Heisman-winning senior season than anything else. Before that, he was a talented disappointment. That being said, I think it was the right decision by head coach Marvin Lewis to hand him the starting job, despite Jon Kitna's remarkable 2003 season. Palmer was drafted to be the team's future -- he's gotta play. I don't think he'll do terribly this year, certainly no worse than the average rookie quarterback. But in terms of the team's overall development, this sets them back a little bit.

The Bengals were one of the stories of last year, making a run for the playoffs in Lewis' first season. This year, the schedule has gotten tougher (non-division games against the Jets, Patriots, Titans, Cowboys and Eagles), Kitna's out of the lineup, the defense leaves a lot to be desired, and also this is the Cincinnati Bengals. Maybe this team will be a playoff team in the next couple of years. Maybe. But they ain't ready yet.

4. CLEVELAND BROWNS 4-12

Funny story. The Browns were brimming with hope a few years back. That's right, brimming. Tim Couch was the Future, Butch Davis was The Next Jimmy Johnson, and one time the team even made the playoffs, only to stumble last year to a 5-11 finish. The Tim Couch Era was done. He wanted out, the team wanted him out, the fans really wanted him out, but he wanted to be paid like a starter. Even though he never played like one. He demanded starter money. He insisted he was an excellent quarterback. In the end, he settled for less than what he wanted, but at least he got the title of "Brett Favre's heir apparent" as he was traded to Green Bay, and at least he got to spend his Sundays at Lambeau Field. Good times.

Well, a funny thing happened on the way to the Hall of Fame. Couch was given the backup job with the Packers, then completed two -- count 'em, TWO -- of 11 passes in his debut. He wasn't much better in subsequent performances. And here's the best part: this "starter" has already been cut by Green Bay. Hi, Mr. Couch, I'm Poetic Justice. Have we met? Seriously, did anyone think this guy, a quarterback from the Kentucky Wildcats, was going to be a franchise player? Really?

What does this story have to do with the Browns this year? Not much, really. But there's not really much to say about the Browns. Jeff Garcia took over for Couch, and he should be a monumental upgrade, but with a roster full of first-round busts (Courtney Brown, Gerrard Warren, Ebenezer Ekuban, and possibly William Green, depending on the next couple of years) and a weak group of wide receivers, things don't look good for Butch Davis' future in Cleveland. Also, I desperately hope that Kellen Winslow II gets his face broken. (If you have been following Winslow's public comments, you'll understand this.)

AFC SOUTH

1. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 11-5

Now that Peyton Manning finally won a couple of playoff games, the next monkey, if you catch my drift, is clearly a Super Bowl ring, or at least a trip to the big game. If the Colts play as well as they did last year, the only team standing in their way is the Patriots. And that's a big one. The Colts came up just short of beating the Pats in the regular season and again in the AFC title game. The first loss, late last November, came because of not much more than poor play-calling (four straight runs up the middle from the New England 1-yard line; four straight times Edgerrin James got stuffed). In the second and more pivotal loss, Manning was intercepted four times. This much is certain -- Thursday night's opener will be a great way to open the season, Mary J. Blige and all.

The Colts will have to survive a brutal early-season schedule, however, if they still want to stay ahead of the Titans in this division. Indy opens with games against the Pats, Titans, Packers and upstart Jaguars.

This goes without saying, but the Colts' defense, which the team curiously neglected to help during the offseason, needs vast improvement if they expect to beat the Pats -- or, for that matter, the Titans. But there should be no worries about Manning and the offense.

2. TENNESSEE TITANS 10-6*

Despite the Titans' success over the past several years, this year's version may have a tougher road to the postseason than they've had in years past. Not only is this division becoming increasingly tough, but Tennessee has a lot of injuries and losses it's going to have to deal with. Eddie George's departure isn't anything to worry about -- young Chris Brown should fill in nicely, though he'll have to prove he can play every down, every week the way George used to.

But the Titans lost their best pass-rusher in Jevon Kearse, and that doesn't do much to help their somewhat vulnerable secondary. Especially if former first-round pick Albert Haynesworth continues to disappoint.

Still, Steve McNair could have both of his legs amputated and he'd still find a way to play; once a scrambler with merely average passing skills, McNair has joined the elite. But I'm sure he'd really appreciate it if a couple more wide-outs would step up and help him out. A playoff berth is on the line.

3. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 8-8

Every year, without fail, there's one really trendy team, the team everyone thinks is going to be the Story of the Year, the Surprise Champion, etc. Last year, it was the Falcons. A few years ago, it was Cade McNown and the Bears. That goes to show you just how accurate the annual trendy picks generally are. This year's trendy team is the Jaguars: a young coach, a young dynamic quarterback, a player named Kiwaukee -- they fit the profile completely.

But they're also playing in the same division as Manning's Colts and McNair's Titans, not to mention another team that's being bandied about as a possible surprise team, the third-year Texans. Byron Leftwich has the makings of a star, Fred Taylor's injury problems have finally subsided (knock on wood) and he's quietly become one of the best offensive weapons in football, and there is plenty of young talent here. But in this division, with statistically the third-toughest schedule in the league? I don't think so, Tim.

4. HOUSTON TEXANS 6-10

It's kind of unfortunate, really, that the Texans are stuck in a division this tough. Then again, the tougher the competition, the better you become. Still, it would be nice to see Dom Capers take this team to the playoffs sometime soon. The Texans have plenty of talent, but were still near the bottom of the NFL in most statistical categories.

On the bright side, despite just five victories, they very nearly squeezed out victories against the Patriots (an overtime loss), Titans and Colts. I know there's no such thing as a moral victory, but Houston should at least be able to build on last season. David Carr-to-Andre Johnson could become a dangerous combination, as long as the front line can protect Carr and Domanick Davis proves last season wasn't a fluke.

Dom Capers has done this all before; he knows how to put together a young team and he knows how to win. Unfortunately, he still won't get to do much of that this year.

AFC WEST

1. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 11-5

The only team hotter than the Patriots last season was the Chiefs. That is, until the second half of the season, when the team's defensive woes got the better of them and they fell to the Colts at home in the second round of the playoffs.

I don't see any reason to believe this season will be much different. This team's going to put a lot of points on the board. A lot. Priest Holmes is still arguably the best all-around offensive threat in the league, and of course Dante Hall is good for a few touchdowns in the return game.

But look at that defense. Isn't the point of the offseason to improve areas of weakness? Perhaps the Chiefs didn't get the memo, because practically the same abysmal group of defenders is back this season. Sure, Chiefs games should be as exciting as any in the league. I'm talking shootouts galore. But the offense isn't going to score 50 points every week, and come playoff time, it's defense that does the talking. The Kansas City defense, however, can hardly muster a whisper.

On the bright side, the Chiefs have a defensive end name R-Kal Truluck. That's right, R-Kal. I just thought that was worth mentioning. Just in case any of you need suggestions for baby names.

2. DENVER BRONCOS 9-7

I was confused. Flummoxed, even. A couple of months ago I picked up the 2004 NFL preview by The Sporting News. I flipped through a few pages, and discovered that they picked the Denver Broncos to win the Super Bowl. Oh, those silly-billies, I thought to myself. They must have put the 1998 NFL preview on the stands by mistake. Surely no one actually thought Jake Plummer was going to lead the Broncos to a championship.

To my horror, as I continued reading, I realized that it was, in fact, the current preview magazine; and The Sporting News had, in fact, sacrificed its entire reputation and picked this year's Broncos to win it all. Okay, so maybe their reputation could survive. I mean, after all, this is the same magazine that picked the Detroit Lions to win the Super Bowl just a few years ago, when Charlie Batch was still the quarterback. (I'm dead serious. Look it up.)

TSN's rationale for picking the Broncos was that they were "on the verge a year ago and adequately addressed weaknesses in the offseason." Now, I'm not exactly sure what "verge" they're talking about, but it's not any kind of "verge" I've ever seen. Perhaps they meant "verve," meaning "vigor, spirit and style." Yes, I'm sure the Broncos were very spirited and vigorous, but let's not confuse that with "really good." Or it's possible TSN meant to say "purge," as in "Their playoff performance makes one want to evacuate one's bowels."

I'm also not sure what TSN meant by "adequately addressed weaknesses in the offseason." Surely they meant to say the Broncos "vastly improved the secondary while getting definitively weaker at every single other position."

Some of the Broncos' team stats from last year are impressive on the surface -- until you realize that the team, which went 10-6 and lost 41-10 in the first round of the playoffs, had a cupcake schedule last year, defeating only two teams with winning records. To be fair, they did put a whuppin' on the San Diego Chargers. Twice.

But look at the Broncos up and down their roster. Yes, the additions of Champ Bailey and John Lynch add a lot to the secondary. That should make for one of the best units in the league. But elsewhere, that's not the case. I understand that Mike Shanahan is great at finding good running backs who fit into his system. Still, no matter if Quentin Griffin/Tatum Bell/Garrison Hearst fit the bill, Clinton Portis is arguably the best running back in the league. At the very least, it's a slight downgrade. At wide receiver, Ed McCaffrey retired and Rod Smith is 34 and showing it. At tight end, Shannon Sharpe retired as well -- but don't worry about it, it's not like he's the greatest tight end of all-time or anything.

Ephraim Salaam, last year's starting left tackle, is gone, and they have an inexperienced second-year player on the right side. On the defensive line, they lost their best pass-rush threat in Bert Berry, who had 11½ sacks last year and is now in Arizona. As for the linebackers, only one of last year's opening day starters remains, Al Wilson. Ian Gold, a promising outside `backer, left for Tampa Bay, and John Mobley is likely to retire with a neck injury.

And then there's Jake Plummer. Whose stats got progressively worse by quarter last season. Who was one of the lowest-rated second-half and fourth-quarter quarterbacks in the entire league last year. Who has never been a championship-caliber quarterback. Who has never, in fact, been even a particularly good quarterback. Whose name is Jake Plummer. Really, this takes nothing more than simple logic. Would you want Jake Plummer making decisions in a big game? Didn't think so.

In case you're wondering, no, I don't have anything against the Broncos. I actually kind of like the Broncos. But TSN's pick incensed me. Oh, well. Now that I've been sarcastic, they'll probably be right. And, even after all that, the Broncos are still good enough to compete for the playoffs. So there you go.

3. OAKLAND RAIDERS 6-10

Trivia question: How do you fix a really bad, really old, rapidly aging football team? I know, I know! Sign more aging and over-the-hill players!

And Al Davis says, That is cor-rect! For that is exactly what the Raiders did this offseason after last year's disastrous 4-12 campaign. (It was really hard to believe that was the same group as the team that went to the Super Bowl 20 months ago.) After bringing Norv Turner (49-59-1 career record) in to replace embattled Bill Callahan, Al Davis did the least logical thing he could do, spending big bucks on 10-year vet Warren Sapp, who has been sliding by on reputation for two years now. "Past his prime" doesn't even say it. Then the team brought in 12-year veteran cornerback Ray Buchanan, 10-year veteran QB Kerry Collins, 36-year-old defensive tackle Ted Washington and 12-year veteran guard Ron Stone. Al Davis has been accused of living in the past before, but this is ridiculous. What, were Steve DeBerg and Bruce Matthews unavailable?

On paper, the Raiders still look like a formidable team. If this were 1997, that is.

But this is 2004, and too many starters, on both sides of the ball, are on their last legs. Don't worry, Broncos fans -- these guys aren't going anywhere.

4. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 3-13

How bad was the Chargers' offseason? So they "earned" the first overall pick in the NFL Draft, figured out which guy they wanted (Eli Manning), and then the guy flat-out refused to play for them. Then, in the midst of that whole controversy, head coach Marty Schottenheimer got caught with his pants down, so to speak, lying about the incident on national television.

So they had to settle for Philip Rivers, the proverbial Next Best Thing. (And while we're at it, people keep referring to this guy as "The Next Bernie Kosar." Is that supposed to be a compliment?)

And what happened? They couldn't even sign the guy until about five minutes ago. Worse yet, the team got fooled in the preseason, as Drew Brees -- briefly forgetting that his name was Drew Brees -- played very well for a couple of (meaningless) games and earned the starting job over Rivers. How long do you give Brees in the starting lineup before Rivers takes over? Two games? Three?

This team will face stiff competition from San Francisco and Cleveland for another first overall pick this year. They're that bad -- and Schottenheimer is on his way out. Three wins might be generous. However, the Tim Dwight Factor should not be underestimated.

NFC EAST

1. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 11-5

Don't believe the hype. It's not that the Eagles aren't a good team. They are. No one in the NFC is a sure bet for the playoffs anymore, but the Eagles are close. Still, this team is not going to the Super Bowl this year. In fact, I would even argue that this team may not even be as good as last year's team. Disagree? Just let me explain.

A lot has been made about the big splash Philly made into the free-agent market this season, adding everyone's least-favorite loudmouth, Terrell Owens. And again with the signing of pass-rush specialist Jevon Kearse. And all of a sudden, the Eagles are the across-the-board favorite to go to, perhaps even win, the Super Bowl.

What everyone has neglected to realize or acknowledge is that the Eagles lost both of their Pro Bowl cornerbacks, Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor. How do you justify giving a massive contract to a one-dimensional pass-rusher and then letting two of the league's best cornerbacks go with hardly a fight? The team also lost Carlos Emmons, its best linebacker from last year's team, to the Giants, and running back Duce Staley.

Brian Westbrook is a good player, but Staley still has plenty of gas in the tank and, after the season-ending injury to Correll Buckhalter, the Eagles' depth at running back isn't looking too good. As for Owens -- yes, he's one of the best in the league, no question. But this is a running team first and foremost, and even on passing downs, he'll be double-teamed every play because the rest of the receivers stink. That's not to say he won't have a good year -- he will make a significant impact to the passing game, I think. But he's not going to put up the kind of numbers he's accustomed to.

The biggest problem the Eagles face is a potentially weak defense. Not only is Kearse injury-prone, but he also doesn't play the run well, and even as a pass-rusher, he has still never reached the form of his rookie season (five years ago). If he gets hurt, that's even more trouble. I doubt the Eagles' linebackers and inexperienced cornerbacks can pick up that much slack.

But this is still a very well-coached team, and it's a team that still has Donovan McNabb, one of the league's few truly dangerous playmakers. Good team? Absolutely. A fourth NFC Championship game? That's debatable. The Super Bowl? Sorry, but no.

2. DALLAS COWBOYS 11-5*

Are the Cowboys as good as the Eagles? I don't think so, personally. But for some reason, a lot of people are expecting the Cowboys to take a step backward this year and miss the playoffs. Some think they'll be downright bad. Their arguments? There's too much uncertainty at the quarterback position. Right, but we're talking about a team that went to the playoffs last year with a quarterback who threw 21 interceptions. We're talking about a run-first team that had no reliable running back.

The fact is, I think most -- perhaps all -- coaches and general managers in this league would rather have Vinny Testaverde right now than Quincy Carter. The Cowboys won 10 games last season, and in most of the six games they lost, Carter was a huge reason for it. He threw costly interceptions -- lots of `em. He couldn't make the big throws. He couldn't do anything against most of the league's best defenses. (Dallas was shut out by New England, Tampa Bay, and scored just 10 against Philadelphia and in the playoff game vs. Carolina.)

Testaverde may not set the world on fire the way he did in 1998, but he will be efficient and, as long as he's healthy, effective. Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn and Antonio Bryant make a formidable receiving corps. And tight end Jason Witten could be a Pro Bowler.

And defensively, of course, the Cowboys were No. 1 in the league last year, and most of that group remains -- only with the addition of Marcellus Wiley.

But what should have a big impact in the Cowboys' season is the fact that they have a relatively soft schedule. Statistically, it's the weakest in the league, and that's something that some prognosticators seem to have overlooked. Come on guys -- schedule always matters. Dallas' non-division opponents include Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans and Cincinnati. Not exactly a Murderer's Row.

3. WASHINGTON REDSKINS 7-9

Once again, some have latched on to the 'Skins as a trendy playoff team. Not gonna happen. Sure, Joe Gibbs is back, Clinton Portis is in the backfield, blah blah blah. Trivia question: How many times have the Redskins made the playoffs since Daniel Snyder bought the team? Answer: zero. What did Daniel Snyder do differently this offseason than in every other offseason since he bought the team? Answer: nothing. He dished out tons of cash to a handful of free agents, and he expects that to translate into championships. Apparently, Snyder thought he was playing Madden 2005.

The Redskins certainly got the better of the Portis/Bailey trade. After all, they got one of the NFL's elite, gave up Bailey, but then went right out and signed Shawn Springs to replace him. Solid deal. However, bringing in Mark Brunell and Mike Barrow and Marcus Washington and Philip Daniels and Cornelius Griffin was a bit much, especially since, with all the money dished out, the Redskins basically have to win the Super Bowl in the next two years, because all the money spent on those players has destroyed the team's cap and many of them will have to be released after two seasons in Washington. Good work, Danny.

If Washington does win the Super Bowl, more power to him. And more power to me when wild goats start flying out of my butt.

The fact is the offensive and defensive lines -- aside from quarterback, probably the two most important pieces to any contending team -- are suspect at best.

4. NEW YORK GIANTS 5-11

Kurt, Eli. Eli, Kurt. Hey, I don't think Eli Manning really cares whether or not he starts right now -- just as long as he's not in San Diego, he can count his many blessings.

It's going to be fascinating to see Manning's development over the next couple of years, but for right now, Warner should be plenty interesting to watch. Remember how amazing it used to be to watch him play? The past two seasons he's been flat-out awful. A Kurt Warner comeback would be a great story -- and it'll help the Giants win some games, maybe even finish ahead of the Redskins.

However, if you want to put money on it, the Giants are still very likely the bottom-feeders of this division. New coach, new philosophy and lots of new faces. Sounds like a last-place team to me.

NFC NORTH

1. GREEN BAY PACKERS 11-5

Are the Packers really a Super Bowl contender again? Maybe, maybe not. Truth is the NFC is wide open, and given the flashes of brilliance the team showed last season, the young players that are expected to emerge this season, and a couple of guys named Brett Favre and Ahman Green, I'm going with them to represent the NFC, not to mention the NFC North.

It took him a little while, but during the second half of last season, right on into the playoffs, wide receiver Javon Walker finally looked like the go-to guy the team has been expecting for a couple of years. This will be his breakout year, and with Favre throwing him the ball, he could put up huge numbers.

Huge numbers have become commonplace for Green, a legitimate 2,000-yard threat who is also one of the best receiving backs in the league. As long as Walker plays like he's supposed to, Robert Ferguson and Donald Driver make nice complementary receivers, and this offense will be among the league's best.

Still, some defensive concerns remain, and Mike Sherman has to prove himself as a big-game coach. Both are question marks. It's not as though the defense is bad by any means -- statistically, they're closer to the top than the bottom. But several players will have to play up to their potential if they want to stack up against the conference's better units.

2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS 10-6

Yes, they signed Antoine Winfield and still have Corey Chavous and Chris Hovan. Yes, they have Randy Moss leading one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. But is anyone sold on the Vikes' defense? Is anyone completely sold on Daunte Culpepper's big-game abilities? Is anyone sold on Mike Tice as an NFL head coach?

I'm not sold on any of them. Culpepper puts up huge numbers, but it's hard to recall many instances over the past three years where he really blew me away, or came through when the chips were down.

Defense, of course, has been a liability for the Vikings for years. It's the same old story almost every season. Winfield is an excellent all-around corner and should help shape up a mediocre secondary. But this defense still has too many similarities to last year's group, one of the lowest-rated in the league.

And as for Tice? In two seasons, he hasn't shown us anything. Let's just say I'm not expecting great things.

3. DETROIT LIONS 8-8

It would take a huge leap from Joey Harrington for this to happen, but the Lions could be a legitimate sleeper if things fall in the right place. Harrington has been erratic in his first two years, showing tremendous accuracy at times and at others looking completely out of place, but now he has not one, but two top-10 picks in his arsenal, Charlie Rogers and Roy Williams. If they can help settle Harrington down, look out for this offense. Especially if rookie running back Kevin Jones is an upgrade over James Stewart, as expected.

Steve Mariucci has been to the playoffs plenty of times before, but he's never built an NFL team from scratch and turned it into a winner. This season will be a big test, especially given the amount of talent he's got now. The Lions have loads of young talent on both sides of the ball -- and they have a chance to show marked improvement this year. I think they'll surprise people. And if nothing else, they're a prime candidate to play the role of spoiler.

4. CHICAGO BEARS 4-12

They used to be Da Bears. But for most of the last decade, this team has been merely "the Bears." Boring, disappointing, and more often than not, just plain bad. This is a team that most football fans would like to see get back in the thick of things again. And Lovie Smith was picked as the man to do it. Just like Dick Jauron was. And Dave Wannstedt before that.

Anyway, Smith's hiring was a well-deserved one, but this year will almost certainly try his patience. The team made a late move this offseason, adding a much-needed pass-rusher in Adewale Ogonleye, but they had to give up their best receiver, Marty Booker, to get him. Now all they're left with is first-round bust David Terrell and a bunch of no-names. Add to that the fact that the team is banking on another first-round bust, Thomas Jones, to all of a sudden turn into a game-breaker as their No. 1 running back. I've watched the guy play for the past few years. He's solid when he gets a few carries a game. But the No. 1 guy over an entire season? Don't get your hopes up.

I expect that in the next year or so, the Bears will begin to form a really solid defense. They already have a few key guys in place--Ogonleye, Brian Urlacher, rookie Tommie Harris, Mike Brown. But it's the offense that worries me. The team has no receivers to help out new quarterback Rex Grossman who, as a second-year player and first-year starter, is going to need all the help he can get.

NFC SOUTH

1. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 10-6

Another team that is being overlooked. It's always tricky with a team that has undergone such a huge facelift during one offseason. Usually the initial results aren't so great. This year's Bucs team, however, made so many of the right moves, and somehow still has so much of 2002's championship team left, that I don't think it's any stretch that Jon Gruden leads them back to the top of the division this year.

Let me give you a quick rundown: The Bucs got rid of its two biggest mouths/biggest egos, Keyshawn Johnson and Warren Sapp. Sapp wasn't worth the money anymore anyway. They've replaced the disappointing Michael Pittman with an older but much more reliable and versatile runner, Charlie Garner. Mike Alstott, who missed almost all of last year with a neck injury, is back. The receiving corps, even without Keenan McCardell, who may or may not join the team, has plenty of depth with Galloway, Jurevicius, Tim Brown and rookie Michael Clayton.

And the defense is still one of the league's best, especially with the additions of Ian Gold and new nickel corner Mario Edwards.

So go ahead and write the Bucs off. But I'll take my chances with this pick. The distractions are gone, the injured guys are back, and there are still some great players on that defense. Trust me -- the Bucs may not be as loud and obnoxious as they have been in years past, but they'll get their swagger back.

2. CAROLINA PANTHERS 8-8

It's hard to count the Panthers out as they try to defend their NFC title, but I find it even harder to pick them to go back, or, for that matter, to even come close.

The same way it bothers me when Tom Brady is compared to Joe Montana, it bothers me when Jake Delhomme is compared to Brady. Once again, the comparisons aren't even close. Delhomme was an average quarterback last year -- nothing more -- until he blossomed in the playoffs. Granted, maybe that was his coming-out party. Maybe he really is as good as he was for those four games. Me, I don't buy it. I don't think he's a bad quarterback by any means -- I think he's decent. But I don't think he'll ever be in Brady's league. And I don't think he's going to sniff another Super Bowl.

Still, with John Fox at the helm, the Panthers are still a tough matchup for anyone. Guys like Steve Smith, who can hurt you on offense and special teams, are never fun to play against. Stephen Davis was an absolute machine last year. And that defense . . . oh, that defense is scary. Looking at the schedule, though, the first half of the season is brutal, and I'm of the personal opinion that Tampa Bay and Atlanta will both be vastly improved this year. That will make things considerably tougher for the Panthers.

3. ATLANTA FALCONS 8-8

Wow, can you believe it? This is probably the only NFL preview on the internet that doesn't mention Michael Vick every other paragraph.

Listen, I'm as much in awe of Vick's abilities as the next guy. But, like with everything else in this media-crazed society, the Michael Vick hype has gotten out of control. Some say he's the best player in the NFL. Some say he's the best quarterback in the NFL, which is a laugher. The truth is, he's the best athlete in the NFL. On any given play, he's the most dangerous player in the league. But he's far from a great quarterback. Just ask his coaches.

The fact that I read in a respected magazine that Vick is the best quarterback in the NFL just makes me laugh. Yes, this is a guy who no one in the league wants to face in the playoffs. No one. But he's also a guy who only completes 50 percent of his passes. He's also a guy who still throws careless interceptions, the kind of picks that the Bradys and Mannings of the world never throw. He's also a guy who has never, not once, been healthy for an entire football season, college or pro. Because Vick is their quarterback, the Falcons scare everybody in the league to death. But he's got a long way to go before he's an elite quarterback.

Two years ago, he and the Falcons took advantage of a weak NFC and made it to the second round of the playoffs. Now, the NFC has gotten stronger, and the Falcons (terrible offensive line; terrible secondary, made worse by the loss of first-round pick DeAngelo Hall; a mediocre receiving corps) have a lot of climbing to do.

4. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 7-9

I shouldn't even waste my time. This is the same exact team every year. Lots of talent at the skill positions, a few great performances, some nice-looking stats, and they always still fall short of the playoffs. Aaron Brooks put up great numbers last year, and did anyone notice? Exactly.

Brooks is a talented quarterback, but he doesn't have the necessary leadership skills needed to take the Saints where they think they have the talent to go. And Jim Haslett, for all the talent he's got playing for him, can't seem to motivate and/or teach his guys well enough to meet their potential. Take a look at coaches like Belichick, Parcells, Fox, Billick -- just about every year, their teams don't just meet their potential, they surpass it. I don't think Haslett will ever be mentioned in that company.

NFC WEST

1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 11-5

The Seahawks a legitimate Super Bowl contender? If they play up to their potential, that's exactly what they are.

Matt Hasselbeck is now infamous for his coin toss guarantee during last year's first-round playoff loss to Green Bay, but I was rather impressed by it. It was brash, it was confident, and it's just what his teammates needed to hear. It was just horrifically ironic that it was Hasselbeck who lost the game, throwing an errant pick that was an easy six for Green Bay corner Al Harris.

But it's that kind of confidence, even cockiness, that is going to take Seattle to the next level. It's the same kind of confidence that Brett Favre had when he won his first Super Bowl, the kind of confidence that Favre still has. Brady has it. Elway had it. Aikman had it. Montana had it. What does this mean? Well, it means that Hasselbeck is the next Joe Montana, of course.

But I kid, I kid. Hasselbeck is in charge of what was the seventh-highest scoring offense in football last season, and he still has a learning curve. If Koren Robinson can live up to potential this year, Hasselbeck will have an even better season than last year, when he earned a spot on the Pro Bowl team.

Defensively, Bobby Taylor and Grant Wistrom were big additions, and second-year corner Marcus Trufant could be in the Pro Bowl in February.

2. ST. LOUIS RAMS 10-6*

Exhibit A: Torry Holt. Isaac Bruce. Orlando Pace. Marshall Faulk. Aeneas Williams. Adam Archuleta. The list goes on.

Exhibit B: Down by three points in a second-round playoff game, the Rams are driving methodically down the field with relative ease. Forty-three yards in five plays. The Panthers defense is tired and is getting beaten repeatedly. The Rams get a 1^st and 10 on the Carolina 15 and St. Louis fans can almost taste the end zone. It's inevitable. They reach the 15 with about 47 seconds left on the clock, and they still have one timeout remaining. And so Mike Martz makes the only logical choice, right? He makes a couple of tries for the end zone to go for the win. After all, with that much time and a timeout, there's really no other option, right?

Right?

RIGHT?!

I'm not a Rams fan. I take 'em or leave 'em. But this made me angry. Very angry. Violently angry. The one thing -- I repeat, the ONE THING -- that Martz could do to screw things up, somehow he did. He didn't try for the touchdown. He let more than 40 seconds wind down off the clock. And then he called his timeout. And went for the tie. Instead of a win. And the Rams, predictably, lost in overtime. This wasn't the first time for Martz, either.

How has this man not been fired yet? How does he keep his job? Does he realize that, in the real world, if someone made as many bonehead decisions as he has the past few years, that person would have been fired a long time ago? Does team owner Georgia Frontiere just not notice that her head coach is a buffoon?

For all intents and purposes, the Rams should have been a dynasty. For the last five years, they've had more talent than anyone in the NFL. And they have one ring to show for it. And that was when Vermeil was coaching. Mike Martz has basically wasted the prime of Faulk's career. Dummy.

And that is the only reason you need to not put money on the Rams to win the Super Bowl. No matter how good they look on paper.

3. ARIZONA CARDINALS 6-10

The Dennis Green Era begins. Hey, I don't think anything can revitalize the Arizona Cardinals franchise, but I salute Green for giving it a shot. I think the Cardinals organization could bring Moses back from the dead to coach the team and make Charlie Manson the club mascot, and people still wouldn't come to the games. Can't we just get rid of this team?

But I digress.

People are fretting -- yes, fretting -- about the loss of rookie phenom Anquan Boldin, who probably won't be back for six weeks. Still, Boldin held the receiving corps together by himself as a rookie last year, so there's no reason to believe Larry Fitzgerald can't do the same for the Cards this year, at least until Boldin gets back. Once he is back in the lineup, this offense will put some points on the board.

And in a classic bit of irony, it's great to see the Cards' depth chart at running back. Troy Hambrick, who so famously complained about being Emmitt Smith's backup two years ago in Dallas, has finally found a new home. In Arizona. As Emmitt Smith's backup. To quote the worst fast-food advertising campaign ever created, I'm lovin' it.

4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 3-13

Why 49ers ownership let Steve Mariucci go last year and brought in Dennis Erickson, a well-established NFL failure, I will never know. But I can't even blame the upcoming 49ers season on Erickson. This team really has nothing -- I mean, not a thing -- going for it. A decent running game, a couple of good linebackers. And no quarterback. And absolutely no wide receivers. (I mean seriously; the Niners are going with a revolutionary Zero Wide Receiver formation this season.) And a leaky offensive line. And a lousy defensive line. And a weak secondary. And no special teams.

But hey, that probably means they'll pick up Mike Williams in next year's draft. So they've got that going for them . . .

Copyright © 2004 by Chris Bellamy

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