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The Ornery American Sports Writer Bring It On (MLB Preview 2005)
Why I resisted the urge to pick the Sox to repeat, and why the Marlins will make it two out of three I thought I was over it. I thought I was doing just fine. And then, last weekend, I just happened to turn to HBO just in time to see the "Reverse of the Curse of the Bambino" documentary, and let's just say I needed a tissue. Why does baseball do this to me? I thought. Why is it that I can sit through three hours of Schindler's List without crying, yet the moment I see highlights from the 2004 ALCS - punctuated, of course, by cheesy, sentimental music - all of a sudden I'm a blubbering namby-pamby. This occurrence only confirmed what my ulcer had been hinting at for weeks: It's baseball season again. Now that the new year has begun, sure - I'm tempted to revisit the thrill of last October, the beauty of the words "World Champion Boston Red Sox." I'd like to wax nostalgic about David Ortiz's game-winners, the Dave Roberts steal, the Mariano Rivera collapse(s), the greatest choke job in history, the comeback, the sweep, the end of the curse.... But, I'm not here to talk about the past. Yes, like our old friend Mark McGwire, I'd like to look ahead to the future, and the remaining 29 weeks of the new year. I'm in a bit of a spot, however. For the last decade or so, I have never picked the Red Sox to win the World Series, fearing that it would only jinx them. But now that things have changed, I still have that same feeling - and so I will not go with my heart and pick the Sox to repeat. Nor will I go with everyone else and pick the Yankees - in part because, frankly, I don't feel morally right about it. The thought of picking them just makes me feel dirty. I will, however, jump on a popular bandwagon and pick the Marlins, in a repeat of the 2003 World Series matchup. Aside from the residual effects of last year, I'm excited for this season because, to me at least, this is one of the most wide-open years I've seen in a long time. Last year, either the Yankees or the Red Sox were going to win the World Series. Everyone knew it before the season, and everyone knew it at the end of the season. This year, I could realistically see six or seven different teams winning it all. Hey, it may not be parity, but it's as close as baseball can get. But since I'm not picking the Sox, I shall, for the remainder of this column, refer to them only as the World Champion Boston Red Sox. After all, who knows when it will happen again; I might as well get all the mileage I can out of the phrase. As of right now, though, I've got six months of anxiety and panic to look forward to. Bring it on. 2005 PREDICTIONS
A.L. EAST
A.L. CENTRAL
A.L. WEST
N.L. EAST
N.L. CENTRAL
N.L. WEST
ALCS: NY Yankees over Boston
WORLD SERIES: Florida over NY Yankees AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero, Anaheim
AL CY YOUNG: Randy Johnson, NY Yankees
AL MANAGER OF THE YEAR: Eric Wedge, Cleveland
A.L. EAST 1. NEW YORK YANKEES YEAR TWO-THOUSAND! YEAR TWO-THOUSAND! I shall very much enjoy hearing that chant every time Satan's Steroid-Ridden Slap-Happy Minions visit Fenway Park this year, as a not-so-subtle reminder that the Yankees have gone - gasp! - four straight seasons without winning a World Series. Oh, the mere thought of it just makes me want to break out in joyous song. But I won't. I can't carry a tune anyway. Of course, given Steinbrenner's inevitable offseason spending spree - pushing the team ever-closer to becoming MLB's very first $1 billion payroll (OK, perhaps I'm exaggerating) - just about everyone has the Yankees pegged to reclaim their crown. Ever talked to a Yankees fan? Their Entitlement Complex is just astounding. I'll be the first to admit that the Yankees look really good now that they've added a legitimate ace - Randy Johnson - to their staff. I've long held the belief that Johnson is the best pitcher in baseball. Over the course of the past decade, the only pitcher that can even hold a candle to him is Pedro Martinez. I fully expect that, with that lineup behind him, Johnson will win another Cy Young, and could win as many as 25 games. Seriously. I'll be a little more blunt. As a Red Sox fan, he scares the crap out of me. What I'm not so sure about, however, is the rest of the rotation. I like the potential of Carl Pavano, and thought it was a good move to sign him. (I wish we would've gotten him, but that's another story.) But can the Yankees really count on Kevin Brown after how he pitched last year? And is there a more predictable free-agent bust than Jaret Wright? I mean, the guy has had one good year in an erratic, injury-riddled career, and Steinbrenner thinks he's worth $22 million? I don't think so. For one, he's got the pressure of playing in the Bronx (let's not forget the Javier Vazquez Experiment). Secondly, he had a career year in Atlanta, and yet the Braves made very little effort to re-sign him. Don't you think there was a reason for that? Third, he's a major health risk. Count on him to sustain a big injury this year. Add to all that the fact that the team's closer is suddenly a question mark - even if only against the World Champion Boston Red Sox. But with all that, the Yankees will still win the division, and probably with a few games to spare. They've won seven division titles in a row - that streak isn't going to end with this team. They're a great regular season team, even when they don't go all the way. Their lineup is unstoppable, save for Games 4-7 of last year's ALCS. Every time Hideki Matsui comes to the plate, I soil my pants. And with Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina (reliable, but overrated) on the mound with a lineup like this? Fuhgetaboutit. This year's version does have three registered cheaters on the roster - two who used steroids, and one who likes to slap like a little girl in order to get on base - so I can't in good conscience pick them to win it all. Plus, I'm just not sold on them. Yet. 2. THE WORLD CHAMPION BOSTON RED SOX* I just love saying that. Well, since I'll be talking way more about the Sox this year than any other team, I'll keep this one as short as I can. I'll miss Pedro - I will. And if David Wells keeps pitching the way he did last week, my mind will begin to formulate several elaborate conspiracy theories concerning his possible undercover involvement with the Yankees. But there shouldn't be too many concerns about this rotation. The ALCS and World Series told you everything you'll ever need to know about Curt Schilling. Matt Clement is young and entering his prime and, were it not for poor run support, would have won 16 or 17 games in each of the last three years. And when Wade Miller gets back, the Sox will have six solid starters - more than enough depth for a deep postseason run. This team has the most lethal 3-4 combo in the big leagues, and that includes any 1-2 punch in the Yankees' arsenal. Manny and Papi combined for 84 homers, 91 doubles, and 269 - count 'em, TWO HUNDRED AND SIXTY-NINE - RBIs last year. They were the most productive duo in AMERICAN LEAGUE HISTORY since Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Ruth and Gehrig! Suck on that, A-Rod. Also, we're the World Champs. 3. BALTIMORE ORIOLES Peter Angelos is nothing if not predictable. Seriously, we all saw it coming, didn't we? When Sammy Sosa was officially put on the trading block, didn't we all know that Angelos would be the idiot who ponied up for his massive contract? I mean, how could Angelos resist an expensive, rapidly-declining superstar with baggage? Why spend the money on pitching, right? Who needs pitching?! You make me laugh, Peter. You make us all laugh. We chortle at your judgment, we snicker at your predictable misfortune. And this third-place prediction is generous. 4. TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS Remember that time last year when the D-Rays were the hottest team in baseball, right around the time when everything was falling apart for the World Champion Boston Red Sox, when Tampa Bay even started to become a mild threat for the Wild Card? Those were good, fun times. Before Rocco Baldelli tore his ACL, and before Jose Cruz, Jr. went to Arizona. But Tampa Bay fans (are there?) can forever look back on last June with fondness, and think about what never could have been, but what they almost thought could have been for a second there. 5. TORONTO BLUE JAYS After the Yankees and the World Champion Boston Red Sox, this division is really a crapshoot. Out of all three remaining teams, I see the least from Toronto. Oh, to be 1992 again. They won 67 games last year and then lost one of the best offensive players in franchise history (Carlos Delgado). Yes, Roy Halladay is fully healthy again, and that's wonderful. But this is a team that finished 12th in the A.L. in seven different offensive categories last year. This is a bad, bad team. A.L. CENTRAL 1. CLEVELAND INDIANS I know, it's a bit of a stretch. But I have a hard time picking all four of last year's playoff teams to return to the postseason. So the Twins, are out (regrettably), and the Indians are in. To be quite honest, the Indians could have given the Twins a run for their money last year had they only had a legitimate closer. The Indians might be reigning division champs if only their bullpen could hold a lead. Cleveland relievers blew 28 of 60 save attempts last year. So despite having two excellent starting pitchers and one of the most explosive lineups in baseball, the Indians finished two games under .500. If Bob Wickman does even a halfway decent job as the permanent closer this year, this is going to be a dangerous team. The front office has done an excellent job building this team from the bottom up over the past few years. Remember a few years back when they got rid of all their aging, high-priced guys and dedicated themselves to a full, lengthy rebuilding process? See, that's what a smart front office does. And all that work will start paying off in these next several years. This team has set itself up for the long haul. I know a few other teams (cough*Orioles*Mets*cough) that could take a hint - and a few NBA teams as well. 2. MINNESOTA TWINS First of all, I think that the surprising number of analysts picking the Twins to win the World Series this year is just stupid. This team is not going to go into New York or Boston and take either one of those teams out. It's just not happening. Yes, Johan Santana is probably one of the top-five pitchers in baseball. (And no, for those of you not paying attention, he didn't just come out of nowhere last year. In 2003, he was 12-3 with a 3.07 ERA. In 2002, he was 8-6/2.99. He's for real.) The rotation is good, the bullpen even better. The lineup is decent enough. A lot of people are talking about all the potential of first baseman Justin Morneau and catcher Joe Mauer. Potential? Yes. But just because these guys are future stars doesn't mean they're going to immediately be great players who will somehow take the Twins all the way. It's going to take time. The Twins, if they're going to be a title contender, still need time. Patience, Mr. Gammons. You can make that pick in a year or two. 3. CHICAGO WHITE SOX This is one of those teams that probably looks better on paper than it actually is. Put new leadoff man Scott Podsednik in a lineup with Paul Konerko, Frank Thomas, Aaron Rowand, Carl Everett, Jermaine Dye, and Juan Uribe and it looks pretty good. And the rotation - Mark Buehrle, Freddy Garcia, Orlando Hernandez, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland - not too shabby, right? Like I said - on paper. What this team has is a lot of talent, but even more question marks. Garcia, Hernandez and Contreras are underachievers. Everett is a headcase. Thomas is aging and injury-prone. Konerko had a great season, but just the year before he hit .234. Plus, Carlos Lee - who drove in 99 runs last year - is gone. If everything - and I mean everything - goes right, the Sox would still be the third-best team in this division, so it's not even worth discussing. Let's just move on. 4. DETROIT TIGERS Well, I love the Tigers' offense - and their uniforms. Adding Magglio Ordonez to a lineup that was pretty good already makes Detroit look like an awfully appetizing sleeper pick - until you take a look at the pitching. Ouch. Still, they could be fun to watch. You know, lots of losses with scores like 14-10, 15-12, 10-9. I'd pay to see 'em. (P.S. Please, please, please, Pudge - please tell me what Canseco said about you taking steroids wasn't true. I love you, Pudgy! Not you! Not you!) 5. KANSAS CITY ROYALS 1. Eli Marrero, Matt Stairs, and Calvin Pickering are sharing cleanup duties. 2. Jose Lima is the ace of the rotation. A.L. WEST 1. LOS ANGELES ANGELS OF ANAHEIM Soapbox alert! OK, first they were the California Angels. Then the Angels of Anaheim. Then the Anaheim Angels. And now they're the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? That doesn't work, people - you can't have two cities for one team! We don't say the Dallas Cowboys of Irving, or the New York Yankees of the Bronx, or the Montreal Expos of Puerto Rico, or the Washington Redskins of Landover, Maryland. But the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim? THAT DOESN'T MAKE ANY SENSE! One team, one city. Otherwise it just sounds stupid. What's next - the Seattle Mariners of the Western United States? The Atlanta Braves of the Bible Belt? But all ridiculous monikers aside, the Angels should be able to repeat as AL West champs with relative ease. The division has been and will continue to be a competitive one, but the Angels are well ahead of the class. They've got arguably the best player in the American League in MVP Vladimir Guerrero, and he's surrounded by a good lineup. So good, in fact, that I'm tempted to pick the Angels to win their second title in four years. I'm really tempted, in fact. But pitching is the name of the game come playoff time - and the Angels, despite the money they've shelled out, fall short in that category. The Yankees have the Big Unit. The World Champion Boston Red Sox have Schilling. The Twins have Santana. The Angels have no ace. Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn, and Kelvim Escobar all have their flashes of brilliance, but they're not enough. 2. TEXAS RANGERS With 86 years of Bambino superstitions now off the books, it's time now to turn our attention to Alex Rodriguez. Except this jinx works in reverse. You all know the story - in four years with A-Rod in the center of the lineup, the Rangers never even sniffed the playoffs - they finished in last place all three seasons and, in fact, won fewer games in each successive season of A-Rod's tenure. And then came last year - Rodriguez was traded to the Yankees, and all of a sudden the Rangers win 89 games - just three wins from a division crown. Texas' new starting shortstop, Michael Young, even had a better season than A-Rod. Much better. Meanwhile, Rodriguez went to New York and singlehandedly reversed the karma of the World Champion Boston Red Sox. Coincidence? Not so fast. Remember, the year after A-Rod left Seattle, the Mariners tied the best regular season record in history in his absence. I'm telling you, the guy's a jinx. A bum. He's bad news. But I digress. It would be a lovely story to see the Rangers take the next step this year, but being that John Hart is still their general manager, it ain't gonna happen. You know John Hart - he's the guy who ran those Indians teams in the mid-to-late nineties, during which he basically refused to improve his pitching staff, and address the Indians' dire need for an ace. I mean, seriously - Charles Nagy was their ace. That team could have been a dynasty. As for the Rangers, Kenny Rogers can't be expected to repeat the season he had last year; Ryan Drese can't be counted on, and Chan Ho Park is an absolute disaster. 3. OAKLAND ATHLETICS It was common knowledge going into the offseason that Oakland's "Big Three" would finally be broken up. At least one was going to be traded. What was curious was the fact that the A's decided to let go the two best and most consistent of the trio, opting to keep Barry Zito, who followed up an erratic 2003 with a flat-out awful 2004. That he now has the added pressure of being the only proven veteran in the entire rotation doesn't really bode well for Oakland's chances to return to the playoffs. When he's on, Zito has the nastiest curveball in baseball. He can be unhittable. But he's had two subpar seasons in a row, and he's no longer supported by Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. Over the last five years, the A's have made four playoff appearances - and they did it with pitching, not offense. Now, their strength is no longer their strength. I still think, in large part because of their experience, that they will be better than some think - or rather, just good enough to stay out of the cellar. 4. SEATTLE MARINERS It's easy to be skeptical about the Mariners' postseason signings, Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson. I happen to disagree. Sure, Beltre had one great season, and it happened to be in a contract year. That's true. But it was a monster year - he hit 48 homers in Dodger Stadium, of all places. Somehow, I don't think that's a fluke. Unfortunately, the M's don't have any pitching.
N.L. EAST 1. ATLANTA BRAVES You say 13 division titles in a row, I say tomato. If you're anal-retentive and like to quibble as I do (indeed, quibbling is one of my most beloved pastimes), then you can retort to the Braves' illustrious claim by pointing out the strike-shortened 1994 season, in which the Braves would have surely lost the division title to the Montreal Expos (they were six games behind and falling, and the Expos were soaring). The Expos had the best record in baseball, they were the best team in baseball, they would have gone on to win it all. And there goes your precious 13 in a row. But in retrospect, I suppose the '94 strike could mean one of two things: Either it was just a coincidence that the Braves came in second place in the one year where nobody counted, or the strike was a message from God: The Atlanta Braves are the champions of the N.L. East from now until the end of time. I'll go with the latter. But just like their regular-season clockwork, one thing you can count on every October is the Braves choking away a brilliant regular-season come playoff time. It's like that whole death-and-taxes thing. (The one exception, of course, being 1995. But I didn't pay taxes that year, either.) For a second there, they almost had me fooled again. I look at the track record of John Schuerholz and Bobby Cox and see this year's roster, and I see a possible World Champion. Then I remember how many times I've said that over the past 14 years. It was about five years ago that I stopped considering them a championship possibility - 1995 notwithstanding - and they're not fooling me this time, either. But it was a close one. The argument could me made - in fact, I'm making the argument right now - that Tim Hudson was the best and most consistent of the Athletics' Big Three. Now he's in Atlanta, with the best pitching coach in baseball, and he no longer has to face an extra slugger in the lineup. I've always loved John Smoltz, I'm glad to see him back in the starting rotation, and I can't wait to see him pitch a big postseason game. Bringing in All-Star Dan Kolb to be the new closer was a necessary and excellent move. Sure, the RF/LF tandem of Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan may raise some eyebrows, but I'm willing to bet they've got enough left to provide some stability to the lineup, and you can count on Chipper Jones being back in form after an off-year in 2004. So fourteen in a row it is - but with an asterisk, m'kay? 2. FLORIDA MARLINS* I'll be the first to admit it: My prediction that the Marlins will win another World Series title will go up in smoke in a hurry if Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis, and A.J. Burnett don't perform like I think they will. They're three of the most talented pitchers in baseball, and three of the most frustratingly inconsistent. Personally, I think Josh Beckett will be an All-Star this year. I think he'll be an ace. And Al Leiter is still a solid starter and should provide some veteran savvy. (One quick question: The Marlins didn't have any trouble dishing out $8 million a year for the 39-year-old Leiter, but they couldn't pony up $10M per for 28-year-old Carl Pavano? Does that make any sense?) Anyway, like I said, if the aforementioned Marlins youngsters - possibly the new "Big Three," if I may, now that Oakland's trio has been dismantled - falter, you can forget about it, and I can hang my proverbial head in prognosticatorial shame. But that's my prediction and I'm sticking to it. This is a team that I can't help but love. What manager in baseball wouldn't want Paul LoDuca? Who wouldn't want Luis Castillo and Mike Lowell? Or Miguel Cabrera? He could be one of the best hitters in baseball within a year or two. He's not even 22 YEARS OLD yet, and he hit .294 last year with 33 homers and 112 RBI. Wow. And let's not forget - this team already has championship experience! So there it is - the Marlins will win the World Series. Write it down and go to Vegas. 3. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES Since this team bores me, I will pontificate on a trivial and rather meaningless question that has been stewing in my head: How did two of the most volatile, oft-unprofessional personalities in Phillies history - John Kruk and Larry Bowa - wind up both getting suit-and-tie broadcasting jobs on ESPN? Is anyone else flummoxed by this phenomenon? But anyway, the Phillies - last year, everybody's trendy pick to unseat Atlanta and go to the World Series - has speed and power, but they don't have a lot of other things. Namely starting pitching. I mean, Randy Wolf? Really? 4. NEW YORK METS I was sitting in my favorite local sports bar recently, watching the Red Sox and Yankees, when I happened to overhear someone behind me mention to his children that the Mets were going to be the best team in baseball this year. Now, dear reader, while I was tempted to throw something at the gentleman, I contained myself. Think of the children! You see, this man was an Idiot. Plain and simple. Yes, Pedro Martinez is still one of the best pitchers around. Yes, Carlos Beltran was the best free agent available. But unfortunately, the Mets have quite possibly the worst bullpen in baseball - not to mention the rest of the rotation (Kris Benson, Victor Zambrano, Steve Trachsel, and an aging and erratic Tom Glavine), and a lineup featuring question mark after question mark. For anyone tempted, even in the slightest, to utter the words 'Wow, the Mets really have a shot this year,' let me (and every real baseball analyst across the country) clear up this misconception. The Mets stink, people! They stink! In part, of course, because of lousy front-office decisions (remember the big Roberto Alomar trade of a few years back?). And in part because of their well-earned inferiority complex due to the crosstown Yankees. Indeed, if the Mets were a child, they would have severe self-esteem issues, and you would have to put them in a special school. 5. WASHINGTON NATIONALS Well at least they're not playing their home games in Puerto Rico anymore. Though I'm not sure RFK Stadium is any better. Oh, and just a small piece of advice for GM Jim Bowden: The last time Vinny Castilla played somewhere outside the friendly confines of Coors Field, he suddenly became an average player, and eventually bolted right back to Colorado. N.L. CENTRAL 1. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS The biggest reason the Cardinals lost to the World Champion Boston Red Sox last October was the fact that they lacked a real ace. So they went right out and got one in Mark Mulder. It was a brilliant move to pick him up in a trade, and it should be enough to place them back atop the Central. In fact, if not for Florida, I would have picked St. Louis to represent the National League in the World Series - and perhaps even win it. However, new shortstop David Eckstein is no Edgar Renteria. Not even close. And the additional signing of Mark Grudzielanek doesn't make up for losing Renteria, either. It's a big loss, and they're going to feel it. Not to mention the loss of the best defensive catcher in the National League, Matt Matheny. But with all that said, the Cards still have one of the best lineups in baseball, and, in my opinion at least, the best player in baseball, Albert Pujols. I mean, go look up his stats online - just ridiculous. He's 25! 2. CHICAGO CUBS I don't understand all the magazines and analysts who still insist on picking the Cubs to get to - or even win - the World Series this year. Don't get me wrong, I would absolutely love to see it happen. I feel their pain, and now that my Sox have broken their decades-long losing streak, I'd like nothing more than to see the Cubs do the same (unless it's at the expense of us, of course, in which case all bets are off). But I don't see how a third-place team can lose its biggest run producer (Moises Alou) and Sammy Sosa, and all of a sudden turn into a World Champion. I had no problems with Chicago dealing Sosa after the clubhouse problems he caused last year. What I did have a problem with was that all they could get for him was Jerry Hairston, Jr. I may have been wrong when I criticized Theo Epstein for dealing Nomar for Orlando Cabrera and Doug Mientkiewicz, but this was ridiculous. Jerry Hairston? Anyway, late signee Jeromy Burnitz is an apt replacement for Sosa, but Todd Hollandsworth is no substitute for Alou. In fact, Todd Hollandsworth is a backup, now a starter by default, only because the Cubs refused to get out on the market and try to pick up a desperately-needed bat. Alou drove in 106 runs and hit .293 last year - he had almost as many RBIs as Hollandsworth had at-bats. And before we go, let's all take a moment to express our frustration at the Cubs' could-be-unstoppable pitching staff, which, let's face it, is never going to be healthy. That said, even with partial seasons from Prior, Wood, and Zambrano, and with Ramirez, Lee, Nomar, and Corey Patterson in the lineup, they have enough to compete, enough to finish second, but not enough to rebound from last year's disappointment and challenge for a title. Sorry, Cub fans. You know I love you, right? 3. HOUSTON ASTROS The Astros were the disappointment of the year last season, until they picked up (or rented) Carlos Beltran. Now? Beltran is gone. So their clutch hitter is gone, Jeff Kent is gone, Craig Biggio is 53, and Jeff Bagwell isn't far behind. Brad Lidge is a stud at closer, and it'll be nice to have Andy Pettitte healthy to pitch alongside Clemens and Roy Oswalt. But this team is going to miss Beltran and Kent - badly. 4. CINCINNATI REDS I laughed at all the hype surrounding Ken Griffey, Jr. last year, when everyone all of a sudden jumped right back on the Griffey bandwagon, ignoring the fact that he was hovering around .250; apparently, people were just happy to see him healthy again. I laughed because I knew it was only a matter of time before his combustible hamstring busted on him again. I'll admit, it took a lot longer than I thought it would before he finally did rip his hammy; he almost got all the way to the All-Star Break! What can I say? The Other Shoe was a stubborn one. But it was bound to happen. And this year should be no different. And his outfield-mate Adam Dunn is a piece of work, too - the guy could hit 60 homers and strike out 200 times this year. But...well, at least they got Joe Randa, right? 5. PITTSBURGH PIRATES If I'm a Pirates fan, I don't like the fact that Jason Kendall was traded for a mediocre starting pitcher like Mark Redman. But I do like some of the young talent the Pirates have on the roster. Jack Wilson had 201 hits last year. Jason Bay is going to be a stud, Tike Redman is a good leadoff guy, Craig Wilson could turn into a solid run-producer, and No. 1 starter Oliver Perez had a 2.98 ERA last year (unfortunately, no run support). 6. MILWAUKEE BREWERS Year: 2004. Team batting average: .248 (Last in NL). Total bases: 2,122 (Last in NL). Slugging percentage: .387 (Last in NL). Runs scored: 634 (15th in NL). RBIs: 601 (15th in NL). Home runs: 135 (15th in NL). On-base percentage: .321 (13th in NL). N.L. WEST 1. SAN DIEGO PADRES Yeah, I'd hate to play in Petco Park, too - at least if I was a power hitter. Ryan Klesko averages 25 homers a year, and he hit NINE last year. Brian Giles averages 34 a year, and he only hit 23, despite 609 at-bats. But architectural gaffes aside, this is a team that is peaking at just the right time - this is one of the most interesting teams in baseball this year. Unlike the last time the Padres were good, when they lost to the Yankees in the World Series and then promptly let go of all their key players. No, this time it's different. Many people don't know who Jake Peavy is, but he had a 2.27 ERA last year (best in baseball) and a 15-6 record, and he's only 23. He's going to win a Cy Young someday. This is one of those likeable teams full of team-first guys who can really play. Mark Loretta has hit over .300 three years in a row, including .335 last year. Phil Nevin drove in 105 runs. Giles is a great bat to have in the middle of the lineup. Rookie of the year Khalil Greene deserved every bit of his hype. And then, of course, there's new leadoff guy Dave Roberts, an angel sent from heaven to Boston last year, and a guy who, after The Steal, will go down as one of my favorite baseball players ever. I'm not ashamed to say it - I love the man. Aside from his postseason bravura, Roberts is a solid player who should be a perfect addition to the San Diego lineup - and the clubhouse. And according to my sources, Roberts will soon be sainted alongside Pope John Paul II. Heck, if I had anything to say about it, he'd be the next Pope. 2. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS Easily my favorite moment of spring training this year was the now-infamous interview in which Barry Bonds, sitting next to his 15-year-old son, blamed his injuries and fatigue on the media, and (here's my favorite part) punctuated his comments by adding, "Get my son in the shot, so you can see how much you're hurting my family." Read it again. If you haven't seen the video, you should. Just when we thought it was impossible for Bonds to be any more unlikeable and melodramatic, he does the impossible. Wow, he really is the greatest. For my money, I'm glad Bonds is out of the lineup right now. But that's only because I have no respect for lying, cheating, self-righteous cowards, especially ones as shameless and blatant as Bonds. But that's just me. Though it's practically inevitable, I don't want him to pass Aaron and Ruth. I want him gone. I want him out of my life. I want him to see how much he's hurting me and my family. And millions of other people who love baseball. That said, I feel bad now that Bonds and champion Hand Urinator Moises Alou have gotten hurt, because this is a really good team with those two in the lineup. A lineup of Durham/Vizquel/Alou/Bonds/Alfonzo/Grissom/Snow/Matheny is nothing to scoff at - and they've got Jason Schmidt on the hill. But without Bonds and (for a time) Alou, it's going to be tough. Most of all, I feel bad for Felipe Alou, who I've long contended is one of the best managers in the game. I have nothing but respect for him and I'd like to see him win it all. But not with Bonds...so I'll shed no tears. 3. LOS ANGELES DODGERS I'm a little bit torn on this team. If enough things go right, they could surprise some people. Maybe, if Bonds and Alou are out for long enough, the Dodgers could come in second. I'm not counting on that happening, but it could. Sure, they lost arguably the most valuable player in the N.L. last year, Adrian Beltre, and got rid of Steve Finley and Shawn Green, too. But J.D. Drew and Jeff Kent are nice additions, if they can stay healthy and if Drew can prove last year wasn't a fluke. Brad Penny and Odalis Perez are solid starters, and Jeff Weaver could be. Derek Lowe made the decision of his life by signing with L.A. - roomy Dodger Stadium, the ultimate pitcher's park, was the perfect place for him, and I think the Dodgers will be glad they signed him. 4. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS Yeah....Troy Glaus, Shawn Green, Shawn Estes and Royce Clayton are the answer. 5. COLORADO ROCKIES Tell me how much you know about the following players: Aaron Miles Clint Barmes Matt Holliday Garret Atkins J.D. Closser Jeff Baker Brad Hawpe Well, these seven players are all starters for the 2005 Colorado Rockies. Last year, Vinny Castilla and Jeromy Burnitz were in Colorado and combined for 241 RBIs, while positional replacements Atkins (third base) and Hawpe (right field) combined for 17. But that was last year, right? And, like I said, I'm not here to talk about the past. Copyright © 2005 by Chris Bellamy Contact the Sports Writer
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