Author Topic: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation  (Read 201 times)

LetterRip

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False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« on: October 09, 2018, 01:37:25 PM »
Someone on facebook had posted a meme claiming that a man had a ".00321%" chance of being falsely accused of rape.

So I figured I'd do some back of the envelope estimates.

Lower bound estimate is 2% of rape reports are false allegations, most credible studies are in the 10-20% range, and there are 100,000 criminal allegations per year. 10- 20% * 100,000 = 10,000 to 20,000 false allegations per year - and if you use lifetime risk (say age 16-66 a 50 year span) 50 years * (10-20,000) = 500,000 to 1,000,000 men falsely accused in their lifetime.  And US adult male population in that age range is about 100 million, that is about a .5-1% lifetime risk of a false allegation.

That is only criminal allegations - false accusations are far more likely in the unreported allegations.

D.W.

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2018, 02:53:30 PM »
And 1% sounds unacceptable until you do the same napkin math on the lifetime risk of actually being raped... 

Seriati

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2018, 02:57:56 PM »
Of course, if you use the same math on being accurately accused of rape, you'd get:

100,000 criminal allegations per year. 80- 90% * 100,000 = 80,000 to 90,000 accurate allegations per year - and if you use lifetime risk (say age 16-66 a 50 year span) 50 years * (80-90,000) = 4,000,000 to 4,500,000 men accurately accused in their lifetime.  And US adult male population in that age range is about 100 million, that is about a 4-4.5% lifetime risk of an accurate allegation.

It's interesting if some what misleading way to describe the statistics.  One could just as easily say you are between 4 and 9 times more likely to be accurately than falsely accused. 

I think too, people are ignoring the moral hazard here.  Rape accusations have been rare because of stigma and cases and convictions rarer because of the burden of proof.  If we move to a standard of proof where accusation = proof, where women are lauded for making the claim and men have no way to defend it, those baseline assumptions will not hold and there will be dramatic shifts in what happens. 

I mean honestly, everyone who has ever had a girlfriend who threatened to kill herself if he leaves, or been in a divorce that includes false accusations of physical violence, should understand the very real possibility against that backdrop that a threat to accuse someone of sexual misconduct will become a potential tactic to retain and control relationships and to "win" divorces and breakups.

Not to say the balance doesn't need to shift, but it can't shift all the way to "prove you didn't do it" or its deemed true.

LetterRip

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2018, 03:21:41 PM »
Seriati,

actually the true allegations doesn't work as well, since true allegations are almost always against serial rapists (I vaguely recall they average something like 10 rapes), whereas false allegations aren't likely to cluster.

Pete at Home

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2018, 10:57:41 PM »
Seriati,

actually the true allegations doesn't work as well, since true allegations are almost always against serial rapists (I vaguely recall they average something like 10 rapes), whereas false allegations aren't likely to cluster.

False accusations seem likely to highly cluster in the case of allegations against persons of different race, social cast or politics from the accuser.

TheDeamon

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2018, 11:37:18 PM »
Seriati,

actually the true allegations doesn't work as well, since true allegations are almost always against serial rapists (I vaguely recall they average something like 10 rapes), whereas false allegations aren't likely to cluster.

False accusations seem likely to highly cluster in the case of allegations against persons of different race, social cast or politics from the accuser.

Or wealth of the accused. Keep in mind a number of sexual harrassment/assault claims have been made against supervisors and other persons of wealth with a "typical resolution" in many cases being an out of court settlement for undisclosed sums and a NDA. While some may have been a Weinstein or Ailes involved, other cases involved innocent individuals where the decision was settling was the better option than fighting it.

TheDrake

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #6 on: October 10, 2018, 01:33:08 PM »
Sadly, wealthy or powerful people who think they can grab people by the pussy and get away with it are not hard to find. Probably a lot easier to find than their false accusers. Monica was sexually harassed regardless of how willing she might have been. Keep your cigar in the box and you will probably be just fine.

Lower levels of power, like middle management, are probably similar. Don't say or do inappropriate things. All sexual topics are inappropriate things. All touching beyond a handshake is inappropriate. Is a company going to settle? Sadly, they probably will and they probably keep the serial douchebag around, and install remote control door locks for him.

I have never directly seen anybody accused who wasn't crossing a line - anecdotal, I know. I have seen many instances of crossing a line go unpunished.

cherrypoptart

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #7 on: October 10, 2018, 06:10:24 PM »
Wouldn't there be a case to be made for Monica being the sexual harasser and aggressor when she gave or showed or whatever Bill her thong? Just because you are the subordinate does that always mean you are the victim?

scifibum

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #8 on: October 10, 2018, 06:23:55 PM »
It's theoretically possible for a subordinate to sexually harass the boss, sure. Bosses normally have an easier time of shutting it down without incurring negative consequences for themselves, but it could happen and it should have consequences for the harasser.

Here's the thing though: even if an underling instigates an inappropriate incident on her own (and I don't believe that's what happened with Lewinsky, but for the sake of argument) - it would still be entirely inappropriate for the boss to accept it, encourage it, or escalate it. And if he does, an employer - or an oversight body - should treat it the same as if he was the sole aggressor. Part of his job is to shut that kind of thing down immediately and take steps to prevent it from recurring.

Pete at Home

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #9 on: October 11, 2018, 04:41:03 AM »
Seriati,

actually the true allegations doesn't work as well, since true allegations are almost always against serial rapists (I vaguely recall they average something like 10 rapes), whereas false allegations aren't likely to cluster.

False accusations seem likely to highly cluster in the case of allegations against persons of different race, social cast or politics from the accuser.

Or wealth of the accused.

yes, that falls into the category of "allegations against persons of different social caste."  Classic Potiphar's wife versus Joseph on the one hand, or greedy poor seeking a windfall on the other hand.  k

Pete at Home

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2018, 11:02:10 AM »
Here's a remarkable and telling story:

A Tanzanian woman impersonated a man ("male fraud" ;) ) in order to work in local gem mines. But after she struck it rich, some woman accused her of rape.  The miner had to reveal her actual sex to disprove the rape charge.

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-39705424


TheDrake

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2018, 09:11:25 AM »
When the police came, the men who did the rape said: 'This is the man who did it,' and I was taken to the police station," Pili says.

So falsely accused, but either by the other suspects or corroborated by the suspects. No clear relationship to wealth.

Pete at Home

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Re: False allegations of rape - lifetime risk of accussation
« Reply #12 on: Today at 09:52:37 AM »
Off. Ok, Drake. So you think the fact that she happened to have struck it rich just before was pure coincidence?

Have you ever even visited a third world country?

The interrogated rape gang was giving the cops what they knew the cops wanted. A suspect with deep pockets to shake down.

It’s not like rape accusations get made in a vaccuum. Biases and interests of cops, counselors, and the victim’s friends and family members affect who gets accused of the rape.