Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 28726 times)

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1550 on: May 20, 2020, 05:47:55 PM »
Agreed re: antibody testing being crucial. It's also something that (I think) could be done with less explicit consent. A while back I'd heard of a study that was taking samples from feces in sewage tracks and they were able to determine titer levels from them. Clearly a sh*tty process, and I have no idea if it actually works, but that kind of anonymized sampling would be the ideal.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1551 on: May 20, 2020, 07:22:37 PM »
Trump announced the other day that he is taking hydroxchloroquine as a preventative against contracting COVID-19.  One can argue that taking it as a preventative made no sense, since there is no data shows that it works and has potentially serious side effects.  He recommended it as something that medical first responders are doing.  Today he announced that he's going to stop taking it in a couple of days.  Why would he stop?

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1552 on: May 21, 2020, 08:00:59 AM »
I'm firmly in the camp that life doesn't really get back to normal until there is a vaccine. Which is going to be close early next year assuming things go amazingly well. So any steps we take to get a vaccine ready to go and have is scaled for mass production on day 1 its approved is huge. The US is reopening too soon, poor countries are never going to be able to shut down sufficiently to eliminate transmission, so the virus will keep reemerging even if a country has a severe shut down that ends local transmission (see China being reinfected from Russia ans SK having to re-implement lock downs after night club transmissions). The virus and some form of modified behavior are with us to stay until we have a vaccine or containment completely fails we have mass infections and deaths leading to herd immunity.

The lurking problem with vaccines is how many people will actually take them.  40% of Americans don't get flu vaccines every year and don't take precautions against getting the disease.  This season I took the senior (high) flu vaccine dose and still caught the flu. Some of those people don't think the vaccine is effective, or are either lazy or aren't concerned about getting it, or if they do get it that it won't be serious.  That group imperils everyone's health, but the more insidious group are the anti-vaxxer crowd who refuse to take it. 

We're starting to see the anti-vaxxers ramp up what they intend to be a campaign to enlist others to not take a COVID-19 vaccine if and when it becomes available.  Their motto is "My body, my choice".  Of course, many of them are part of the anti-abortion semi-religious crowd whose motto should be "Your body, my choice".  If the two groups ultimately fuse to consolidate their forces, they could shrink the motto even further to "Me, me, me, me".

We have to wonder how effective the vaccine effort will be, despite all of the knowledge we will have about the severity of the disease when it becomes available, if people don't or won't take it.  The motto for the rest of us could be "My body, your choice?".

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1553 on: May 21, 2020, 08:42:58 AM »
Trump announced the other day that he is taking hydroxchloroquine as a preventative against contracting COVID-19.  One can argue that taking it as a preventative made no sense, since there is no data shows that it works and has potentially serious side effects.  He recommended it as something that medical first responders are doing.  Today he announced that he's going to stop taking it in a couple of days.  Why would he stop?

Why should he continue?

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1554 on: May 21, 2020, 08:44:46 AM »
Trump announced the other day that he is taking hydroxchloroquine as a preventative against contracting COVID-19.  One can argue that taking it as a preventative made no sense, since there is no data shows that it works and has potentially serious side effects.  He recommended it as something that medical first responders are doing.  Today he announced that he's going to stop taking it in a couple of days.  Why would he stop?

Why should he continue?

He took it because of its preventative protection.  Isn't it unwise to stop if it is effective?

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1555 on: May 21, 2020, 08:47:21 AM »
Trump announced the other day that he is taking hydroxchloroquine as a preventative against contracting COVID-19.  One can argue that taking it as a preventative made no sense, since there is no data shows that it works and has potentially serious side effects.  He recommended it as something that medical first responders are doing.  Today he announced that he's going to stop taking it in a couple of days.  Why would he stop?

Why should he continue?

He took it because of its preventative protection.  Isn't it unwise to stop if it is effective?

So he must take it every day for the rest of his life?

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1556 on: May 21, 2020, 08:51:00 AM »
Trump announced the other day that he is taking hydroxchloroquine as a preventative against contracting COVID-19.  One can argue that taking it as a preventative made no sense, since there is no data shows that it works and has potentially serious side effects.  He recommended it as something that medical first responders are doing.  Today he announced that he's going to stop taking it in a couple of days.  Why would he stop?

Why should he continue?

He took it because of its preventative protection.  Isn't it unwise to stop if it is effective?

So he must take it every day for the rest of his life?
You tell me.  He was very clear a few days ago that he was taking it every day because of its special health properties.  He pointed out that many health care professionals are taking it for that reason, as well.  His private physician prescribed it for him, too.  Given that, I can't think of a good reason why he should stop.  He's the President, he has a duty to protect himself. So if this keeps him healthy, how can he justify stopping?

Or has he decided that taking it is useless or a bad idea?  What do you think?

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1557 on: May 21, 2020, 08:57:03 AM »
I’m pretty sure nobody is prescribing it as a preventive for covid with the intent that you must take it for the rest of your life. Can you point to medical professionals that are saying this? Can you point to any place Trump has said this?

Let’s shortcut this, we know you can’t. You’re pretending there is to make a ridiculous and ill informed point.

Then, you completely jump to the only reason he stopped is it must not provide any value despite having no  idea what you’re talking about.

Classic Kasandra.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1558 on: May 21, 2020, 09:14:03 AM »
I’m pretty sure nobody is prescribing it as a preventive for covid with the intent that you must take it for the rest of your life. Can you point to medical professionals that are saying this? Can you point to any place Trump has said this?

Let’s shortcut this, we know you can’t. You’re pretending there is to make a ridiculous and ill informed point.

Then, you completely jump to the only reason he stopped is it must not provide any value despite having no  idea what you’re talking about.

Classic Kasandra.

I can't come up with any professional guidance that it works as a COVID-19 preventative.  I don't have to justify why he should or shouldn't take it.  HE is the one who said it.  I don't know about taking it for life, but logically I would think he would want to take it until he can get vaccinated.  It's not about what I think. I am not expressing an opinion.  Don't keep avoiding the question.  I can only speculate on the answer.

Quit dancing and answer the question: Why did he stop?

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1559 on: May 21, 2020, 09:15:23 AM »
Sigh.

Let's assume the intent of the question wasn't obvious.  Next week is not the end of time, it's not even next year.

What will have changed by next week, from a week ago, that would lead to an informed decision to stop the prophylactic use of HCQ? 

Presumably, somebody who was actually thinking made a decision based on the illness risk/HCQ benefit/HCQ risk analysis.  Either the perceived illness risk was reduced, the perceived HCQ benefit was reduced, or the perceived HCQ risk increased.

The R0 value will not have changed downwards significantly from a personal basis, so it is likely not that.  I really doubt Trump made a decision that the perceived benefits of taking HCQ reduced (he certainly hasn't admitted to it) and I also doubt he would admit that his perception of the risks of taking the drug increased.

That leaves something orthogonal to it being a medical decision.  Maybe he is virtue signalling.

What are your thoughts on the matter?

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1560 on: May 21, 2020, 09:30:33 AM »
I don't know if your post was directed at me or Crunch, but I'll take a shot at it.

1. AFAIK, no medical professional has recommended taking the drug as a preventative for COVID-19.  That would mean that his doctor is either misinformed or incompetent, since it is known that the drug has potentially serious side effects.  Thus, the President's health has been at risk with no compensating benefit to offset the risk.

2. Trump stated that many health care professionals are taking it for its preventative value.  Either he was misinformed (I haven't seen any reports supporting that statement) or those medical professionals are themselves misinformed or incompetent.  They should be identified and appropriate actions taken for them diverting an important medical resource with limited supply that people who need it for treatment of their ailments haven't been able to get.

3. If a two-week regimen is all that is needed for Trump, then what circumstances will have changed when the two weeks will have elapsed?  He's not taking other precautions that I can see, and appears to be acting as if the disease is no longer a threat to him.  That may be the new White House stance given that Pence was in Florida yesterday with Governor DeSantis.  They both went to a local restaurant where most patrons were eating without masks, and they didn't wear masks.  They even made a point of serving themselves drinks from a soda dispenser that the other diners had used, and then sat at a table nearby other unmasked patrons.

4. I can't see a "virtue signal" in his stopping taking the drug, as I can't see that virtue in his and Pence's refusals to wear masks in public.  Today Trump will be visiting a Ford plant in Michigan where the state policy requires everyone to wear a mask for the benefit of everyone's health and well-being.  I wonder if he will refuse and if that will lead to some sort of showdown.  If he doesn't wear a mask, I wonder if he will insist on shaking hands with the workers, which is something he also likes to do.

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1561 on: May 21, 2020, 09:42:25 AM »
I’m pretty sure nobody is prescribing it as a preventive for covid with the intent that you must take it for the rest of your life. Can you point to medical professionals that are saying this? Can you point to any place Trump has said this?

Let’s shortcut this, we know you can’t. You’re pretending there is to make a ridiculous and ill informed point.

Then, you completely jump to the only reason he stopped is it must not provide any value despite having no  idea what you’re talking about.

Classic Kasandra.

I can't come up with any professional guidance that it works as a COVID-19 preventative.  I don't have to justify why he should or shouldn't take it.  HE is the one who said it.  I don't know about taking it for life, but logically I would think he would want to take it until he can get vaccinated.  It's not about what I think. I am not expressing an opinion.  Don't keep avoiding the question.  I can only speculate on the answer.

Quit dancing and answer the question: Why did he stop?

I have no idea. It was a medical decision between him and his doctor. I'm not sure how you think I'm "dancing" nor how you think I would somehow know why he stopped. I don't know. Neither do you but if you want to pretend you do then I guess I can't stop you. Make up things all you want. Hey, maybe he stopped taking it because he had COVID but then the drugs worked and got rid of it! He was cured! That's just as likely a made-up story as the one you're making up.

Taking a drug and then stopping does not prove it's effective or ineffective. That's just dumb, really, it's a stupid argument. It only means he and his doctor decided it was no longer necessary and there are literally dozens of reasons that could be the case.  People take drugs, then they stop. Why do you think that's so unusual?

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1562 on: May 21, 2020, 09:52:36 AM »
Quote
Taking a drug and then stopping does not prove it's effective or ineffective. That's just dumb, really, it's a stupid argument. It only means he and his doctor decided it was no longer necessary and there are literally dozens of reasons that could be the case.

For once I have to give you credit for not jumping to his defense, no matter the cost.  He gave reasons to start, but hasn't given a reason to stop.  The public should know if the reason applies to others who follow his guidance.  If there is a health risk to taking it beyond two weeks, those who emulated him in taking it should know. If he stopped because it has no efficacy, others who are risking their health now should know.  If the pandemic is over and it's no longer needed, he should let everyone know so we can all get back to our pre-pandemic lives.

Whatever the reason, people should know.  I'd think you would be as curious as I am.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1563 on: May 21, 2020, 10:09:39 AM »
Why would you assume djt has a rational reason for anything he does? Probably he heard something on talk radio.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1564 on: May 21, 2020, 10:38:31 AM »
Why would you assume djt has a rational reason for anything he does? Probably he heard something on talk radio.

His nonsense is just as valid a subject for discussion as his words on the occasions when he tells the truth.  It's even more valid if his nonsense leads people to believe his nonsense and act nonsensically in ways that endanger themselves and others.  He's told 1000's of lies, each one of which if Obama had told might have led to his impeachment.  We can't let ourselves become numb to it.

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1565 on: May 21, 2020, 12:35:42 PM »
Quote
Taking a drug and then stopping does not prove it's effective or ineffective. That's just dumb, really, it's a stupid argument. It only means he and his doctor decided it was no longer necessary and there are literally dozens of reasons that could be the case.

For once I have to give you credit for not jumping to his defense, no matter the cost.  He gave reasons to start, but hasn't given a reason to stop.  The public should know if the reason applies to others who follow his guidance.  If there is a health risk to taking it beyond two weeks, those who emulated him in taking it should know. If he stopped because it has no efficacy, others who are risking their health now should know.  If the pandemic is over and it's no longer needed, he should let everyone know so we can all get back to our pre-pandemic lives.

Whatever the reason, people should know.  I'd think you would be as curious as I am.

I am very mildly curious but that doesn't mean he should have to sacrifice his right to privacy when it comes to medical treatment. There are many reasons he could have stopped and they're none of our business.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1566 on: May 21, 2020, 12:57:22 PM »
Quote
I am very mildly curious but that doesn't mean he should have to sacrifice his right to privacy when it comes to medical treatment. There are many reasons he could have stopped and they're none of our business.

This is ludicrous and hypocritical, even by your standards.  I'll remind you of this comment every time you object to people objecting to his statements on matters affecting ordinary citizens and how you attack people here on this forum for disagreeing with him (smh, orange man my true love). 

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1567 on: May 21, 2020, 01:10:42 PM »
I am very mildly curious but that doesn't mean he should have to sacrifice his right to privacy when it comes to medical treatment.
I am almost certain that Trump is NOT reading Kasandra's posts, so this is just a silly response.

That being said, Trump has already opened the door in that he has told people a) he is taking HCQ and b) he will stop taking HCQ shortly, so questioning why he has made those announcements is completely fair game.  And sure, he can choose not to explain himself further, and that would probably be wise, since any clarification is likely to embarrass himself further.

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1568 on: May 21, 2020, 01:18:20 PM »
Quote
I am very mildly curious but that doesn't mean he should have to sacrifice his right to privacy when it comes to medical treatment. There are many reasons he could have stopped and they're none of our business.

This is ludicrous and hypocritical, even by your standards.  I'll remind you of this comment every time you object to people objecting to his statements on matters affecting ordinary citizens and how you attack people here on this forum for disagreeing with him (smh, orange man my true love).

If he's asking people to reveal their medical treatment, then you would have a point.  smh

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1569 on: May 21, 2020, 01:20:07 PM »
I am very mildly curious but that doesn't mean he should have to sacrifice his right to privacy when it comes to medical treatment.
I am almost certain that Trump is NOT reading Kasandra's posts, so this is just a silly response.
So you think he meant Trump was supposed to call him personally and reveal his treatment decisions? smh.


That being said, Trump has already opened the door in that he has told people a) he is taking HCQ and b) he will stop taking HCQ shortly, so questioning why he has made those announcements is completely fair game.  And sure, he can choose not to explain himself further, and that would probably be wise, since any clarification is likely to embarrass himself further.

If you want to pretend that, go for it. Any fantasy you like with the bad orange man is your reality.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1570 on: May 21, 2020, 01:30:21 PM »
Why do you think Trump is bad?  And he really isn't orange, you know.

And if you want to continue to avoid addressing the inconsistencies in your arguments by claiming that Trump has a right to privacy in his medical treatment, go for it.  It's not like nobody notices

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1571 on: May 21, 2020, 01:31:47 PM »
Why do you think Trump is bad?  And he really isn't orange, you know.

And if you want to continue to avoid addressing the inconsistencies in your arguments by claiming that Trump has a right to privacy in his medical treatment, go for it.  It's not like nobody notices

Don't cry. ::)

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1572 on: May 21, 2020, 01:40:28 PM »
Why do you think Trump is bad?  And he really isn't orange, you know.

He isn't orange anymore, the White House dietitian and medical staff probably adjusted his diet in a manner to his liking that reduced his beta carotene intake to a more normal level and thus the orange skin tone went away.

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1573 on: May 21, 2020, 01:48:56 PM »
I think the HCQ did it.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1574 on: May 22, 2020, 07:55:28 AM »
Why do you think Trump is bad?  And he really isn't orange, you know.

He isn't orange anymore, the White House dietitian and medical staff probably adjusted his diet in a manner to his liking that reduced his beta carotene intake to a more normal level and thus the orange skin tone went away.

Does beta carotene cause a white circle of flesh around the eyes and what in other people would be called a tan line on his neck?  Also note that Hydroxychloroquine can cause skin color changes.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:57:38 AM by Kasandra »

Crunch

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1575 on: May 22, 2020, 09:30:56 AM »
Also note that HCQ is the most dangerous drug ever manufactured. Only politically connected elites can take it safely. The rest of us will spontaneously combust. This has been covered up by the media for 70 years.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1576 on: May 22, 2020, 10:39:48 AM »
Also note that HCQ is the most dangerous drug ever manufactured. Only politically connected elites can take it safely. The rest of us will spontaneously combust. This has been covered up by the media for 70 years.

You really are just a troll.  You make everyone else here seem reasonable and normal by comparison, so I suppose you do provide some value to the discussions you participate in.  Hmmm, I'll be offline for a few hours shortly.  Crunch reminded me that I need to buy some oranges.

wmLambert

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1577 on: May 22, 2020, 12:29:15 PM »
Also note that HCQ is the most dangerous drug ever manufactured. Only politically connected elites can take it safely. The rest of us will spontaneously combust. This has been covered up by the media for 70 years.

You really are just a troll.  You make everyone else here seem reasonable and normal by comparison, so I suppose you do provide some value to the discussions you participate in.  Hmmm, I'll be offline for a few hours shortly.  Crunch reminded me that I need to buy some oranges.

More projection.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1578 on: May 22, 2020, 12:56:36 PM »
Also note that HCQ is the most dangerous drug ever manufactured. Only politically connected elites can take it safely. The rest of us will spontaneously combust. This has been covered up by the media for 70 years.

You really are just a troll.  You make everyone else here seem reasonable and normal by comparison, so I suppose you do provide some value to the discussions you participate in.  Hmmm, I'll be offline for a few hours shortly.  Crunch reminded me that I need to buy some oranges.

More projection.

They were out of oranges ;(

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1579 on: May 22, 2020, 01:06:52 PM »
Why do you think Trump is bad?  And he really isn't orange, you know.

He isn't orange anymore, the White House dietitian and medical staff probably adjusted his diet in a manner to his liking that reduced his beta carotene intake to a more normal level and thus the orange skin tone went away.

Does beta carotene cause a white circle of flesh around the eyes and what in other people would be called a tan line on his neck?  Also note that Hydroxychloroquine can cause skin color changes.

I never really investigated the extent of just how orange he was. I freely acknowledge it could be he was using fake tanning products.

I just also happened to discover that over-use of beta-carotene supplements(which are believed to have healthful effects--and we know how great Trump is on medical topics) can result in people's skin coloration taking on an orange hue. So it presents an alternate option for what had been going on with that. The White House staff got him off those supplements.

wmLambert

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1580 on: May 22, 2020, 01:07:38 PM »
Also note that HCQ is the most dangerous drug ever manufactured. Only politically connected elites can take it safely. The rest of us will spontaneously combust. This has been covered up by the media for 70 years.

You really are just a troll.  You make everyone else here seem reasonable and normal by comparison, so I suppose you do provide some value to the discussions you participate in.  Hmmm, I'll be offline for a few hours shortly.  Crunch reminded me that I need to buy some oranges.

More projection.

They were out of oranges ;(

BTW, Crunch's post was sardonic, (a kind of irony.) Yours was just name-calling and spleen-venting. Pelosi calls Trump "Morbidly obese", when he's not. Your party seems to have a penchant for bullying and insult, thinking it is clever, when it is the opposite.

NobleHunter

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1581 on: May 22, 2020, 01:12:24 PM »
BTW, Crunch's post was sardonic, (a kind of irony.) Yours was just name-calling and spleen-venting. Pelosi calls Trump "Morbidly obese", when he's not. Your party seems to have a penchant for bullying and insult, thinking it is clever, when it is the opposite.

Still more projection.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1582 on: May 22, 2020, 01:13:01 PM »
BTW, Crunch's post was sardonic, (a kind of irony.) Yours was just name-calling and spleen-venting. Pelosi calls Trump "Morbidly obese", when he's not. Your party seems to have a penchant for bullying and insult, thinking it is clever, when it is the opposite.

*looks at Trump's twitter feed*

Uhh, I think there is this thing about glass houses you might want to be mindful of.

wmLambert

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1583 on: May 22, 2020, 01:29:08 PM »
BTW, Crunch's post was sardonic, (a kind of irony.) Yours was just name-calling and spleen-venting. Pelosi calls Trump "Morbidly obese", when he's not. Your party seems to have a penchant for bullying and insult, thinking it is clever, when it is the opposite.

*looks at Trump's twitter feed*

Uhh, I think there is this thing about glass houses you might want to be mindful of.

Totally mindful. Recall that Bush 43 refused to respond to bullying and lies, thinking the media would vet everything and secure his legacy. Of course they didn't. Trump told everyone in his autobiographies that he would react to attacks. That is what he does, and it works. He gets around the complicit media by doing this.

What you keep neglecting is to mention that he is always responding to attacks, and mediating them - not just being a bully, like Pelosi is. Once, back in elementary school, I had a friend who was a hemophiliac, who got punched in the stomach by a bully. I told the puncher to stay behind recess, and told him to never try to injure my friend again, and punched him in return. He never went after him again. Maybe there was a better way to handle it, but it worked. I don't remember ever being in a fight after that, but just that one time, I reacted to stop a bully. This forum is based on Orson Scott Card, and I remember Ender doing the same. My friend was out for a while, while the doctors fought to stop the internal bleeding. He lived into middle age before he died, but maybe I helped adding a few years to his life.

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1584 on: May 22, 2020, 01:57:42 PM »
i know there is no way you can admit to yourself that Trump is a bully, wmLambert, so let's just skip over that part... do you really believe that Trump does not insult?  That he does not believe it to be clever?

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1585 on: May 22, 2020, 04:21:04 PM »
Leave it to Canadians to see if pot can't somehow help. Time to break out the edibles?

https://www.ajc.com/news/canadian-study-finds-that-enzymes-cannabis-could-treat-covid/xtpNkbXF8JQosUNWYeTdpM/

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1586 on: May 22, 2020, 07:29:21 PM »

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1587 on: May 22, 2020, 10:06:25 PM »

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1588 on: May 23, 2020, 09:36:06 AM »
The US has the 3rd highest daily growth in the fatality rate/million from COVID, behind Spain and Sweden and tied with the UK.  The US rate is poised to increase with the relaxation of restrictions and will likely overtake Ireland and the Netherlands in the next few weeks.  By August I expect the overall US rate with be 3rd or 4th in the world behind Belgium, Spain and perhaps Italy, all of whose rate has been declining recently.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1589 on: May 23, 2020, 01:23:40 PM »
The US has the 3rd highest daily growth in the fatality rate/million from COVID, behind Spain and Sweden and tied with the UK.  The US rate is poised to increase with the relaxation of restrictions and will likely overtake Ireland and the Netherlands in the next few weeks.  By August I expect the overall US rate with be 3rd or 4th in the world behind Belgium, Spain and perhaps Italy, all of whose rate has been declining recently.

Are we speaking in absolute terms (raw numbers) or in per-capita numbers? You do realize the United States is the 4th largest nation on the planet by population, and that one of the more populous nations in question happens to be China where we know they're cooking their books?

India and Indonesia then subsequently run into that whole 3-rd world nation thing, so their numbers are quite possibly worse, but we have no way to reliably know.

Which means the US is going to "naturally" lead in reporting as the largest nation in terms of population with the ability to reliably track the virus, and without the government controls needed to allow them to suppress the information(China), or its population(China) in order to effectively stop the spread.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1590 on: May 23, 2020, 01:36:16 PM »
The US has the 3rd highest daily growth in the fatality rate/million from COVID, behind Spain and Sweden and tied with the UK.  The US rate is poised to increase with the relaxation of restrictions and will likely overtake Ireland and the Netherlands in the next few weeks.  By August I expect the overall US rate with will be 3rd or 4th in the world behind Belgium, Spain and perhaps Italy, all of whose rate has been declining recently.

Are we speaking in absolute terms (raw numbers) or in per-capita numbers? You do realize the United States is the 4th largest nation on the planet by population, and that one of the more populous nations in question happens to be China where we know they're cooking their books?
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 01:38:33 PM by Kasandra »

DonaldD

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1591 on: May 23, 2020, 01:39:00 PM »
The US has the 3rd highest daily growth in the fatality rate/million from COVID
Are we speaking in absolute terms (raw numbers) or in per-capita numbers?

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1592 on: May 23, 2020, 02:28:36 PM »
Epidemiological studies are showing that the epidemic in NYC stems from the delay to shut down European travel and the hordes of people who descended on the city during the final days before the travel stopped.  Another fine mess somebody's gotten us into.

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Epidemiologists contend the U.S. outbreak was driven overwhelmingly by viral strains from Europe rather than China. More than 1.8 million travelers entered the United States from Europe in February alone as that continent became the center of the pandemic. Infections reached critical mass in New York and other cities well before the White House took action, according to studies mapping the virus’s spread. The crush of travelers triggered by Trump’s announcement only added to that viral load.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1593 on: May 23, 2020, 03:24:19 PM »
The US has the 3rd highest daily growth in the fatality rate/million from COVID, behind Spain and Sweden and tied with the UK.  The US rate is poised to increase with the relaxation of restrictions and will likely overtake Ireland and the Netherlands in the next few weeks.  By August I expect the overall US rate with will be 3rd or 4th in the world behind Belgium, Spain and perhaps Italy, all of whose rate has been declining recently.

Are we speaking in absolute terms (raw numbers) or in per-capita numbers? You do realize the United States is the 4th largest nation on the planet by population, and that one of the more populous nations in question happens to be China where we know they're cooking their books?

Wait, isn't growth rate by definition a percentage over time? And the original post clearly says /million

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1594 on: May 23, 2020, 03:35:32 PM »
In this case the rate is a ratio of a variable over a constant.  There are 330 million people in the US. and ~100K have died.  The numerator (deaths) increases while the denominator (population) stays the same.  If 330 people died, the ratio would be 1 death per 1 million population.  Ours is currently about 297 per million (98,337/330,795,837) according to Worldometer.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1595 on: May 23, 2020, 04:43:19 PM »
As long as we're linear, we're good. 1000 more deaths per week in perpetuity can be managed. Our even 3000.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1596 on: May 24, 2020, 05:31:15 PM »
As long as we're linear, we're good. 1000 more deaths per week in perpetuity can be managed. Our even 3000.

Hadn't caught the "per million" number although they were playing "statistical games" as well when they invoked "growth in death rate(per million)" which was a percentile.

as it is, the US death count could double(currently 300 per million), while Spain's remains unchanged(615/million), and they would still have a higher death rate than the US. 

Heck, the UK and Italy are both currently at 542/million.
France is currently at 435/million
Sweden is at 396/million
The Netherlands is at 340/million
and Ireland is at 326/million

And as their ratio's are determined by smaller population bases than the US has, their ratio will grow more per death than our own. Not exactly the kind of race I care to be part of, but we'd have to try very hard to do worse than they've already done at this stage.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1597 on: May 24, 2020, 06:28:51 PM »
The implication is the prevalence of the disease, not the number of cases.  Think of it in terms of an R factor if that makes it easier to digest.

TheDeamon

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1598 on: May 24, 2020, 06:33:58 PM »
The implication is the prevalence of the disease, not the number of cases.  Think of it in terms of an R factor if that makes it easier to digest.

I'm pretty sure I understand what you're trying to get to. But I don't think you understand the counter-arguments on this in terms of economic cost vs lives saved, or the whole matter that we're still doing a lot better than a number of our "Advanced European brethren" even with the failings that happened over here. We also have little reason to believe that as it pertains to the ratio of the population impacted, that we're going to be doing appreciably worse than they will be doing going forward. If they haven't resumed operations yet, it's a question of when. And it certainly won't be in time to prevent further deaths.

Kasandra

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #1599 on: May 24, 2020, 07:00:18 PM »
You're making a hopeful and optimistic argument that is not yet borne out by the facts.  The US is on the verge of falling into a depression and it's a guarantee that COVID cases and deaths will continue to rise, so I'm not sure what positive steps you see that we've taken.  The only hope I can see to your argument is that the death count doesn't overwhelm society's ability to "resume normal activities". So far it isn't happening quite that way.

IMO you shouldn't look to Sweden for inspiration.  Their society is structured differently than ours, and their economy has also suffered greatly.  Last, don't forget that the population of Sweden is about 3% of ours with a very different structure.  We can go into that comparison in detail if you would like.  I've seen the comparison, but don't have it at my fingertips at the moment.