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General Category => General Comments => Topic started by: Grant on December 22, 2021, 05:10:30 PM

Title: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on December 22, 2021, 05:10:30 PM
Well, having fun as always with talking about gawd and Tommy A and 'Rona and how the FBI was behind Jan 6.

Meanwhile, back in Mordor...

Looks like Grandfather Frost is coming to Kiev and Pooter is going to take the rest of Ukraine this winter.  He only had to wait 7 years after taking Crimea.  Very Tokugawa.  Figure if he had another 21 years in him he'd be in Berlin, but not sure if Pooter is that powerful in the dark side. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/russia-ukraine-invasion/2021/12/03/98a3760e-546b-11ec-8769-2f4ecdf7a2ad_story.html

So Ivan has something like 50 Battalion Tactical Groups Deployed around Ukraine, with something like another 50 on the way, according to "US Officials and Intelligence Documents".

Quote
As tensions mount between Washington and Moscow over a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, U.S. intelligence has found the Kremlin is planning a multi-front offensive as soon as early next year involving up to 175,000 troops, according to U.S. officials and an intelligence document obtained by The Washington Post.

I'll pause here for you to start talking about how the CIA are deep state traitors. 

"It reminds of the heady days of Spurtnik and Yuri Gegarin".

Quote
Biden said he is preparing measures to raise the cost of any new invasion for Putin, who has dismissed the U.S. warnings as rumors and said Russia is not threatening anyone.

Well, that'll do it. 

Pooter just wants some Lebenstraum, or Zhiznennoye Prostranstvo.  Honestly, some prostranstvo sounds delicious.  I'd eat a sandwitch with some prostranstvo in it if they had any. 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/12/21/germany-holds-the-key-to-deterring-russian-moves-against-ukraine/

Quote
A wish list of security guarantees presented by the Kremlin to the U.S. and NATO last week amounts to a veto on further expansion of the alliance, a removal of all U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, including B-61 bombs in Germany, as well as a military withdrawal from the territories of the former Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union.

Quote
This is no longer just about Ukraine. In effect, Russia is demanding a sphere of interest that begins at Germany’s eastern border, and the end of nuclear sharing in Europe — unacceptable proposals for the West. Even if this is merely brinkmanship intended to bring about diplomatic negotiations or a coup in Kyiv, it is stupendously risky.

Anyways, there is more public support for US involvement in Ukraine these days.  More than 7 years ago anyways.  Libs have seemingly come around because Pooter's hacker farms were doing their little propaganda psyops in 2016 and 2020.  Oh, and because L'Orange and Pooter were gud buds. 

https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/commentary-and-analysis/blogs/half-americans-support-use-us-troops-defense-ukraine

Quote
New data from the 2021 Chicago Council Survey, conducted July 7-26, finds that Americans are more willing than ever to support Ukraine, including using US troops to defend it. For the first time since the question was included in 2014, half of Americans support the use of US troops if Russia were to invade the rest of Ukraine (50% favor, 48% oppose). This is a significant increase in support for US intervention since 2014, when only three in 10 Americans (30%) supported sending US troops to Ukraine.

Funny how being a hawk or dove isn't a partisan thing anymore. 

Anyways, I don't think Joe is sending anybody anywhere or doing anything.  I don't even think he's going to be able to set up some real economic costs.  I don't think the Germans are going to want to cut off all their gas this winter.  I don't think the French and British are in a position to do anything.  I don't think the US wants to lead on anything.  If I were Poland or the Baltics, my butt would be tight enough now to make diamonds.  So Pooter is going to take Ukraine this winter.  Happy New Year. 

Personally, I say we hit Russia with a massive air and naval campaign and basically destroy the Russian armed forces.  But that's just me. 


Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on December 22, 2021, 05:34:45 PM
F Ukraine. Is it rotten what's about to happen to the people there? Yeah, it is. It was also lousy what happened to countries aligned with the Soviets that we F'd up, as well as arming Afghan freedom fighters.

It sucks that China is slowly obliterating Hong Kong, and that Tibet got boned, and that Hungary got screwed, and on and on and on. Unless we truly had UN teeth, which can't even get a sharply worded security council resolution against a veto country, there's not really a viable option.

So we'll all play the same tune as Crimea, wringing our hands and condemning the state of affairs in diplomatic missives, probably making some kind of token sanctions. Maybe expel a handful of the known spies, and that's about it.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: alai on December 22, 2021, 06:33:57 PM
It sucks that China is slowly obliterating Hong Kong, and that Tibet got boned, and that Hungary got screwed, and on and on and on. Unless we truly had UN teeth, which can't even get a sharply worded security council resolution against a veto country, there's not really a viable option.
Bear in mind that the US is the pretty much the biggest reason the UN is toothless, and (if memory serves, but I really should check) the biggest veto-wielder against overwhelming SC votes against its own position.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on December 22, 2021, 08:01:12 PM
and (if memory serves, but I really should check) the biggest veto-wielder against overwhelming SC votes against its own position.

LOL.  No. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: alai on December 22, 2021, 09:50:06 PM
LOL.  No.
Thank you for that detailed and helpful response and analysis!  I'll see if I refine it a little further -- if such a thing can can ever be imagined! -- by finding a record of said "overwhelming SC votes against its own position".  Let's say 14-1 ones, for the sake of argument.

Of course, much of the famous toothlessness of the UN relates to measures adopted by the General Assembly, which of course pretty much necessarily get no-one anywhere.  Which is also very much how the US likes it.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on December 22, 2021, 10:28:56 PM
F Ukraine. Is it rotten what's about to happen to the people there? Yeah, it is. It was also lousy what happened to countries aligned with the Soviets that we F'd up, as well as arming Afghan freedom fighters.

It sucks that China is slowly obliterating Hong Kong, and that Tibet got boned, and that Hungary got screwed, and on and on and on. Unless we truly had UN teeth, which can't even get a sharply worded security council resolution against a veto country, there's not really a viable option.

So we'll all play the same tune as Crimea, wringing our hands and condemning the state of affairs in diplomatic missives, probably making some kind of token sanctions. Maybe expel a handful of the known spies, and that's about it.

Safe bet it won't be "just" Ukraine in the crosshairs of anything that happens this spring. Taiwan will be on the menu as well.

China shut down all of the ADS-B and AIS beacon receivers that were sharing information to the world at large. So we no longer have visibility of either commercial Air Traffic or commercial shipping traffic within China's territorial limits.

I wonder why China might decide they don't want people to be paying attention to what they're having their "domestic" aircraft and cargo ships are doing. Certainly wouldn't have anything to do with past experiments with using them for military purposes.

At least so long as China has a thumb on the scale, it is unlikely anything will happen until after they have a chance to attempt a propoganda blitz at the 2022 Winter GenocideOlympic Games. Just so everyone can get a good understanding of how wonderful things will be for the Taiwanese once under the boot of the Communist Party.

Of course, based on (mostly anecdotal) reporting that is coming out of China through unoffical leakages through their great firewall. I'm becoming less certain that the Communist Party will be able to hold things together that long. It might force them to move up the time table.

Hard to convince their own people that their economic problems are a consequence of economic sanctions due to Taiwan if it is plainly obvious to all of them that the economy had crapped out before the war started.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on December 22, 2021, 10:31:55 PM
LOL.  No.
Thank you for that detailed and helpful response and analysis!  I'll see if I refine it a little further -- if such a thing can can ever be imagined! -- by finding a record of said "overwhelming SC votes against its own position".  Let's say 14-1 ones, for the sake of argument.

Of course, much of the famous toothlessness of the UN relates to measures adopted by the General Assembly, which of course pretty much necessarily get no-one anywhere.  Which is also very much how the US likes it.

It is further complicated by a tendency of the Security Council to generally refrain from putting things up for a vote if they know it'll get vetoed. Their actually voting on a resolution in such a case is often a signal in and of itself. (And generally political for obvious reasons)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: alai on December 22, 2021, 10:56:05 PM
It is further complicated by a tendency of the Security Council to generally refrain from putting things up for a vote if they know it'll get vetoed. Their actually voting on a resolution in such a case is often a signal in and of itself. (And generally political for obvious reasons)
Right.  I suspect that's why Wikipedia doesn't have a Big Table(TM) of tabulated numbers of votes -- hey, I didn't say I was doing deep research on the topic! -- even when there has been been a formal use of the veto (as opposed to a Permanent Member simply warning off the SC from tabling a measure by threatened use).
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on December 22, 2021, 11:34:25 PM
https://research.un.org/en/docs/sc/quick

To the rescue.

Plugging it into LibreOffice Calc and doing some sorting..

210 resolutions/drafts have seen use of a Security Council Veto.

Sometimes they are being vetoed by as many as 3 permanent members at the same time. (Of which I see 13 occasions that happened, with the 3 parties being the US, UK, and France)
Russia and China have jointly vetoed 13 resolutions/drafts.
The UK and US have jointly vetoed 9 resolutions/drafts.
France and the UK have jointly vetoed 2 resolutions/drafts.

France has vetoed 1 resolution/draft as the only party to use a veto.
China has vetoed 3 resolutions/drafts as the only party to use a veto.
The UK has vetoed 5 resolutions/drafts as the only party to use a veto.
The USSR vetoed 90 resolutions/drafts as the only party to use a Veto.
Russia has vetoed 13 resolution/drafts as the only party to use a veto.
The United States vetoed 60 resolutions/drafts as the only party to use a Veto.
 
Edit: Do note, the link doesn't report what the vote outcomes were, it just reports use of the veto. Although it does seem to link to the question at hand, so those records could probably be found quickly enough, just more work than I care to do.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on December 23, 2021, 12:28:57 AM
More fun with that earlier data set. In the past 10 years, the US has vetoed 4 UN security council resolutions/drafts, out of 25 resolutions/drafts to be vetoed.
10 were vetoed by Russia, and the were jointly vetoed by Russia and China.

The topic of 3 of the 4 US vetoes? "Middle East situation, including the Palestinian question"(there are 12 other UN security council resolutions going back to 1974 which contain "Palestinian" in the description which also saw US veto power being used, with no other permanent member joining the US; making for a total of at least 15 US vetoes in the UNSC related to Israel) Number 4 was "Threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist attacks"

As to the fourth one, here's what Human Rights Watch had to say about it:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/04/despite-us-veto-desperate-isis-suspects-and-families-remain-risk

Quote
There is good news and bad news from the Aug. 31 United Nations Security Council vote on a dangerously flawed draft resolution on so-called “foreign terrorist fighters,” the council’s catch-all phrase for members and affiliates of groups like the self-styled Islamic State (ISIS). The good news is that the United States vetoed the draft, rightly dismissing it as “worse than no resolution at all.”

The bad news is that all other 14 Security Council members voted “Yes”—not one was sufficiently embarrassed to abstain—though the resolution would have undermined the rights of desperate children and women locked inside squalid camps for ISIS families, the rights of terrorism suspects to appear before a judge, and the U.N.’s own Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy. Given that wanton disregard, the risk remains that some of the more troubling provisions in this draft may yet find their way into a future counterterrorism resolution.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: alai on December 23, 2021, 02:15:21 AM
Edit: Do note, the link doesn't report what the vote outcomes were, it just reports use of the veto. Although it does seem to link to the question at hand, so those records could probably be found quickly enough, just more work than I care to do.
Yeah, as I said it was the vote I was looking for -- the Other Big Table that wikipedia does have already gave me that data -- sorry, if I'd linked it I could have spared you some spreadsheet pain.  (Or denied you spreadsheet pleasure?)  They're linked in that those at least preclude the maximally overwhelming case (the 14-1 one), but three Powers could still in theory be vetoing a 12-3 vote, which is overwhelming-ish.  Or a singleton veto might be overriding a much narrower one.

The topic of 3 of the 4 US vetoes? "Middle East situation, including the Palestinian question"(there are 12 other UN security council resolutions going back to 1974 which contain "Palestinian" in the description which also saw US veto power being used, with no other permanent member joining the US; making for a total of at least 15 US vetoes in the UNSC related to Israel) Number 4 was "Threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist attacks"
Yup, that was pretty much my assumption.  Almost surprised it's that low!  The latest one, the "US and Israel thinks Israel's capital is outside where standing UN resolutions say Israel's borders are" was indeed a 14-1 vote.  And it actually was recorded as a full vote, so if that's not the usual procedure, perhaps a case of the UN being annoyeder than usual about it.

Quote
As to the fourth one, here's what Human Rights Watch had to say about it:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/09/04/despite-us-veto-desperate-isis-suspects-and-families-remain-risk

Quote
There is good news and bad news from the Aug. 31 United Nations Security Council vote on a dangerously flawed draft resolution on so-called “foreign terrorist fighters,” the council’s catch-all phrase for members and affiliates of groups like the self-styled Islamic State (ISIS). The good news is that the United States vetoed the draft, rightly dismissing it as “worse than no resolution at all.”

The bad news is that all other 14 Security Council members voted “Yes”—not one was sufficiently embarrassed to abstain—though the resolution would have undermined the rights of desperate children and women locked inside squalid camps for ISIS families, the rights of terrorism suspects to appear before a judge, and the U.N.’s own Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy. Given that wanton disregard, the risk remains that some of the more troubling provisions in this draft may yet find their way into a future counterterrorism resolution.
I'm not familiar with that one, and might have to google it more extensively when I'm a little more awake -- for example, it'd be handy to have the full statement from the US ambassador, and not just a sentence fragment with a confusing lack of context.  But my hot take is that HRW is upset at the draft resolution violating the rights of ISIL suspects, and the US was upset that it wasn't violating them more, and vetoed out out annoyance at the Europeans, and in the hopes of a do-over in the form of a more extensive resolution.  i.e., one that would have violated those rights yet more enthusiastically.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on December 23, 2021, 10:24:18 AM
Oddly, in this case, it seems the US wasn't trying to be terrible. At least by the standard most people would try to apply.

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-un-militants/u-s-isolated-as-it-vetoes-u-n-resolution-on-foreign-militants-idUKKBN25R2MU

Quote
The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Kelly Craft, said the draft text aiming to reinforce international action on counterterrorism “was worse than no resolution at all.”

“It fails to even include reference to the crucial first step – repatriation to countries of origin or nationality,” she said. “The United States will not participate in such a cynical and willfully oblivious farce.”

...

The United States wants foreign militants sent home and either prosecuted or rehabilitated there. European states, however, have been reluctant to try their nationals at home, citing difficulty in collecting evidence, concerns about a public backlash and the risk of fresh attacks on European soil.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on January 04, 2022, 09:02:27 PM
China has shut down nearly all "heavy polluting industry" until March 16th of this year in order to ensure blue skies for the Olympic(ending on Feb 20th) and Paralympic Games(ending March 15th) although officially the plants are shut down for "maintenance, upgrades, and retooling" until then. Of course, China did do something comparable back in 2008, although I don't recall it being a 3+ month long shut-down for the Summer Olympics.

This also has the side effect of creating a lot of "noise" for the international intelligence community, as this opens the doors to "unusual activity" at just about every relevant factory site, and at the major sea ports as well as existing inventories and stockpiles draw down.

Could be "nothing to see here" in a legitimate sense, or it could very much be something to see. I guess we'll find out in 4 months.

But in the meantime, China's Communist Party has something they can hide their economic problems behind. People aren't out of work because the economy is falling apart. They're on furlough while they prepare "a new wave of innovation" in their manufacturing industry(upgraded plants) while they wow the world with the Olympic Games.  ::)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: alai on January 05, 2022, 07:31:51 AM
Actually the 2008 restrictions were even longer -- they started in November 2007.  https://chicagopolicyreview.org/2016/02/12/the-2008-beijing-olympic-games-spillover-effects-on-air-quality-and-health/ (https://chicagopolicyreview.org/2016/02/12/the-2008-beijing-olympic-games-spillover-effects-on-air-quality-and-health/)  At exactly what point, if any, they became complete shutdowns I dunno.  Likewise I'm unclear about the nature of this one -- what's your source?

Some of this "unusual activity" might also be relocation of production, or refitting (whether for air-quality reasons or wildly otherwise).  Plus of course switching to Covid-22 mass production, that'll clog up a few Gantt charts.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: alai on January 05, 2022, 08:43:35 AM
Oddly, in this case, it seems the US wasn't trying to be terrible. At least by the standard most people would try to apply.
Pace Tolstoy, there are so many different kinds of terrible available!  I meant to look into this somewhat more, but laziness, inertia and distractedness intervened, as is often the case.

I did find the ambassador's full statement, which is both a worthless exercise, and very much trying to be terrible.  It was all North Korea-style bluster and kissing up to then (then) Eternal President and (then) Eternal Foggy Bottomer (unless in the event of becoming future Dear President in turn).  I'm still left with the impression that the Former Regime's beef is "doesn't go far enough", and the HRW's is "goes too far!", and no useful detail from either.

There is certainly some justice in the criticism of the position of the Europeans.  To take the UK in particular, it's shown zero willingness to repatriate its own citizens abroad suspected of ISIL involvement:  indeed, its preferred approach has been to try to just deprive them of citizenship.  This is cynical enough for people with dual citizenship where their association is primarily with the UK, extremely questionable (and with a strong whiff of racism) where it happens on the basis of there being another citizenship they're "entitled to apply for", and brazenly illegal where it's simply rendering someone stateless on no pretext whatsoever.

Mind you, the US seems plenty guilty of the similar impulse not to want to put its own suspects through the normal civilian criminal justice system.  It just happens to have more access to "in-theatre" assassination, military installations (maintained over the protests of their "host" country or otherwise) to stash them in out of reach of the justice system, etc as alternative means.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 15, 2022, 10:55:02 PM
"Grandpa, what did you do during the outbreak of World War Three?" 

"Well, I was *censored*posting about the culture war, Democrats vs Republicans, down in Louisiana". 

Hope everyone is enjoying their time in the new year.  The sparrow has come and given glad tidings of great crops and all that.  Still fighting 'Rona and Libs and Progs and White Christian Nationalist Trumpists and those pesky Warmongering Neocons.

So US Intel says Putin has decided to invade and it's coming within the week.  Embassy in Kiev has been moved to Lviv.  It's amazing how every time there is a crisis in China or Eastern Europe, the names of things change.  Kiev becomes Kyiv and Beijing is Peking. I don't know. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/world/europe/president-biden-is-holding-a-call-with-nato-and-eu-leaders-to-discuss-russia-and-ukraine.html

Oh, I know what you're thinking.  When has the last time the CIA or NSA has gotten anything right?  I mean, we're all intelligence experts here.  Just ask all the people who still believe Assad had nothing to do with dropping sarin on women and children.  It was all an Islamist plot.  Thank gawd Russia Times is here to clear things up. 

President Joe made a great speech.  For a dude 79 years old.  Just don't expect anything Clint Eastwood or Morgan Freeman calibre.  President Joe continues to be great at his only major job.  Not being His Lord Highness The Defender of Legitimate Civil Discourse.  Lotsa talk about diplomacy and all that.  The good news is that President Joe has heard his people's cry, "F Ukraine.  It's sad and horrible, but the United States armed the Mujhas and *censored*ed up Lithuania".   Never mind doing anything that would actually stop a war, like putting a single US Brigade into Ukraine.  *censored*, that would be Imperialism.  Can't have that.  Can't actually stop wars.  Whatever he is, he's still 1000% times better than Germany, sucking on that sweet Russian gas nozzle.  I mean, *censored*, it's winter time in Germany right now.  You want to go without heat? 

I suppose we'll find out soon if the evil warmongers in the CIA and NSA are right or not. 

My recommendation to crush the Russians with a sustained air campaign has been ignored and is kinda impossible at this point really.  The majority of the carriers in the Atlantic are down for maintenance.  Most of the US Navy is in the Pacific right now watching China.  Did a neat little Taiwan head fake there.  The only thing we have have on that side is the Truman, which is in the Med right now.  Not really keen on trying to get into the Black Sea with a single carrier group.  Even if Turkey is playing ball.  The Bush, Stennis, and Washington are all sitting up in Norfok, with the Ford which is getting geared up.  But you would need a minimum of 4 carrier air groups to survive going into the Barents Sea to threaten Murmansk. 

At this point the best move would be to move the 48 FW from England to someplace in Romania or Poland, along with all the necessary support units.  If the Germans would actually allow something like that.  Bless those glorious peacekeepers.  If you can't blow the *censored* out of the Rodina then you may as well give the Ukrainians some air cover. 

But that won't happen either.  Gotta give em all that diplomacy.  Thick hot juicy diplomacy.  Kissinger makes me moist. 

I've heard talk about how Pooter won't do it because of the cost in causalities and diplomatic sanctions.  People talking about Ukraine bleeding Russia dry.  It's not going to happen.  Russia can flatten Ukraine in a matter of days and walk into Kiev.  I mean, there will be plenty of dead Ukrainians.  But not a bunch of dead Russians.  The Russians simply have too much air and artillery power. On top of this, the Ukrainians know they're going to lose.  They're not going to fight to the death when they can flee.  The same thing that happened to Afghanistan is going to happen to Ukraine.  They feel the same way.  No help.  No support.  No chance.  Abandoned.  They have heard the voice of the people.  "F Ukraine.  Shame the United States made the UN toothless with all those vetos.  And armed Mujas.  It's all their fault". 

Pooter might be in Kiev this weekend.  It's not going to take long.  Happy Den'zashchitnika Otechestva. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 15, 2022, 11:24:02 PM
Turkey changed its name in December as well.  8)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 16, 2022, 12:03:44 AM
There are conflicting reports coming in all the time. Within the last 24 hours I read headlines saying the following sort of thing:

-"Russian attack immiminent"
-"Putin claims genocide happened in Ukraine"
-"Russian troops begin backing away from Ukraine border, ending training maneuvers"
-"Putin laughs at the West for overreacting"
-"Putin may be planning his assault any time now"

Anything I read is just clickbait nonsense. Until I hear that Russia has outright invaded the rest is a nothingburger. Part of me wonders whether this sort of thing is planned in order to sell copy both in Russia and over here. Just keep everyone on their toes and a bit scared/excited.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 16, 2022, 02:21:42 AM
And part of me wonders if this is all done to make a lot of money with market manipulation. Anyone who knew for sure that this was all just posturing could make a nice bundle of change in the stock and crypto markets. Who would know for sure? Russians. Always follow the money.

Well I shouldn't say it's all done to make money. The Russians play their games on many levels. Getting Ukraine to put it's NATO membership ambitions on hold was surely a big part of it, but if they could make a lot of money at the same time they wouldn't turn their noses up at the opportunity.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 16, 2022, 04:57:58 AM
At least so long as China has a thumb on the scale, it is unlikely anything will happen until after they have a chance to attempt a propoganda blitz at the 2022 Winter GenocideOlympic Games. Just so everyone can get a good understanding of how wonderful things will be for the Taiwanese once under the boot of the Communist Party.

So US Intel says Putin has decided to invade and it's coming within the week.  Embassy in Kiev has been moved to Lviv.  It's amazing how every time there is a crisis in China or Eastern Europe, the names of things change.  Kiev becomes Kyiv and Beijing is Peking. I don't know. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/world/europe/president-biden-is-holding-a-call-with-nato-and-eu-leaders-to-discuss-russia-and-ukraine.html
Posted on 15 Feb, 7 days later would be 22 Feb, just after the Winter Olympics conclude on the 20th in Beijing.  8)

Of course, the Paralympics might still factor in, although Russia didn't seem to care in 2014. If they do this time(because of China), we have another month to go just yet. Those games conclude on the 15th of March.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 16, 2022, 01:39:38 PM
There are conflicting reports coming in all the time. Within the last 24 hours I read headlines saying the following sort of thing:

-"Russian attack immiminent"
-"Putin claims genocide happened in Ukraine"
-"Russian troops begin backing away from Ukraine border, ending training maneuvers"
-"Putin laughs at the West for overreacting"
-"Putin may be planning his assault any time now"

Anything I read is just clickbait nonsense. Until I hear that Russia has outright invaded the rest is a nothingburger. Part of me wonders whether this sort of thing is planned in order to sell copy both in Russia and over here. Just keep everyone on their toes and a bit scared/excited.

Remember when the world press said a US invasion of Iraq was imminent and then it happened?

Give one other good reason to mass a couple hundred thousand men along the entire border of a nation?

The only question left is when, not if.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 16, 2022, 01:46:19 PM
Because it will get you something that you can't get without massing a couple hundred thousand troops.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 16, 2022, 01:57:40 PM
Because it will get you something that you can't get without massing a couple hundred thousand troops.

Yeah, more square miles for your country. Name one time that many armed men went to a border and then tucked in home without killing anybody.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on February 16, 2022, 04:14:36 PM
TheDrake,

it can be used for negotiation - a strong imminent threat works well for that.

I think the only that that will prevent Putin from invading, if anything will, is that we've armed the Ukraine with a lot of anti-tank missiles and the Biden administration has sent advisors for training them on their usage, and for assessing additional military equipment needs.   While Russia isn't as loss adverse as the US is, it might be sufficient to change Putin's calculus.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 16, 2022, 09:14:36 PM
Because it will get you something that you can't get without massing a couple hundred thousand troops.

Yeah, more square miles for your country. Name one time that many armed men went to a border and then tucked in home without killing anybody.

Can't give one off-hand, but have hazy memories of it happening a few times in the 19th Century. So long as the troops were on a "domestic" border.

US troops massed on the border of Iraq were obviously not on a domestic border of the US.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 17, 2022, 02:50:33 PM
Because it will get you something that you can't get without massing a couple hundred thousand troops.

Yeah, more square miles for your country. Name one time that many armed men went to a border and then tucked in home without killing anybody.

Can't give one off-hand, but have hazy memories of it happening a few times in the 19th Century. So long as the troops were on a "domestic" border.

US troops massed on the border of Iraq were obviously not on a domestic border of the US.

Yeah, sometimes the country involved doesn't invade. Because the threat is enough to get someone to cave to their demands, usually.

Let's note that the Russian troops are not in their domestic border entirely. A big chunk of them are in Belarus. Oh, and the previously invaded Crimea.

I don't see a scenario where they mass the troops, Putin gets nothing to show for it, and brings them home.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 18, 2022, 12:11:38 PM
I think the only that that will prevent Putin from invading, if anything will, is that we've armed the Ukraine with a lot of anti-tank missiles and the Biden administration has sent advisors for training them on their usage, and for assessing additional military equipment needs.   While Russia isn't as loss adverse as the US is, it might be sufficient to change Putin's calculus.

I think this is a good point, and if anything is or would deter an invasion from what is already in place, it would be losses sustained from Javelin missiles sold to Ukraine after His Tiny Grabbyness extorted them for dirt on non-existent servers.  But I think that calculus was already in place and you don't mass 70% of your army and air forces against a single country without having thought it through or it's all just a bluff.  Russian massive superiority in air power and indirect fires is going to limit the damage that the Ukrainians can manage.  Major Ukrainian formations are going to be vaporized before T-80s or 90s get within range of any Javelins.  So you're talking about small independent teams or units that survive the slaughter going it alone on foot in a hole going against massive Russian formations.  Kinda suicide.  It's been done in the east before though so it could happen. 

What the Ukrainians need is air support from NATO.  Kudos to the UK for apparently having the balls to send some of their EW birds up over Ukraine. 

Quote
At this point the best move would be to move the 48 FW from England to someplace in Romania or Poland, along with all the necessary support units.  If the Germans would actually allow something like that.  Bless those glorious peacekeepers.  If you can't blow the *censored* out of the Rodina then you may as well give the Ukrainians some air cover.

I feel kinda stupid now that I've found out that they've already moved elements of the 48 FW from Lakenheath to Poland and the F-16s in Germany to Romania.  This is a no *censored* ballsy move on Biden.  If the USAF and RAF contest air superiority over Ukraine, the Russians are going to have the devil of a time slogging through the Ukrainians.  I know this hasn't gotten a bunch of press outside of the Airforce Times, but if anything deters Pooter it's going to be the idea of having to tangle with the USAF over Ukraine.  It's going to turn his opportunity of a quick "shock and awe", "smash and grab", "fait accomplit" strategy into garbage.  But to make it real they need to deploy the F-35s too.  F-15s and F-16s are designs from 40 years ago. 



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 18, 2022, 12:35:44 PM
I'm not sure the F-35 adds much in this particular role as a deterrent. Is any Russian general going to look at F-15s and F-16s and say, well as long as they don't send the F-35 we're in good shape?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 18, 2022, 12:49:02 PM
I'm not sure the F-35 adds much in this particular role as a deterrent. Is any Russian general going to look at F-15s and F-16s and say, well as long as they don't send the F-35 we're in good shape?

Oh yeah. 

Su-35s, Su-27s, Mig-29s, even the old Mig-31s with the new hypersonic AAMs, can all tangle horns with F-15s and F-16s.  Especially when you're talking about 300 vs 30.  The F-35s are a whole different ballgame and change everything.  Trust me.  As soon as F-35s land in Poland, Pooter will be complaining about NATO aggression and plans to attack Russia again. 

F-22s from Virginia would be even nicer, but I don't think Biden will do that.  It was probably all Austin could manage to send F-15s and 16s. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 18, 2022, 12:57:13 PM
I'm not sure the F-35 adds much in this particular role as a deterrent. Is any Russian general going to look at F-15s and F-16s and say, well as long as they don't send the F-35 we're in good shape?

Oh yeah. 

Su-35s, Su-27s, Mig-29s, even the old Mig-31s with the new hypersonic AAMs, can all tangle horns with F-15s and F-16s.  Especially when you're talking about 300 vs 30.  The F-35s are a whole different ballgame and change everything.  Trust me.  As soon as F-35s land in Poland, Pooter will be complaining about NATO aggression and plans to attack Russia again. 

F-22s from Virginia would be even nicer, but I don't think Biden will do that.  It was probably all Austin could manage to send F-15s and 16s.

I think you've already lost the plot if we're down to kill ratios. Yes, the 35 is obviously superior. But I can't imagine it making a difference in preventing a conflict, only in the effectiveness of winning it. We had air superiority in Iraq from the first hour, how'd that go in the long run?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 18, 2022, 01:36:08 PM
I think you've already lost the plot if we're down to kill ratios. Yes, the 35 is obviously superior. But I can't imagine it making a difference in preventing a conflict, only in the effectiveness of winning it. We had air superiority in Iraq from the first hour, how'd that go in the long run?

 ::)

It went really well in the long run.  Imagine how much worse it would have been if we hadn't had air superiority during all that time.  I don't think anybody has ever blamed our problems in Iraq on a lack of air power.  Jeez. 

The reason F-35s add to deterrence is the threat they pose and the effectiveness it presents.  F-15s and F-16s can make it more costly for Pooter.  But the more costly you can make it, the better the deterrence, correct?  It's like poker.  Adding F-15s and F-16 is a raise.  But two squadrons of F-35s is an even bigger raise.  A much bigger raise.  The F-15s and F-16s will make it more costly but they're still just a speed bump because they will be attrited eventually and the Russians will have air supremacy and a larger more mobile army with greater indirect fire capability. 

On the other hand, having F-35s is the difference between the Russians having to fight just a pack of Wolverines from Calumet, Colorado, and having to fight a squad of Predators from Yuatja Prime.  The cost goes up immensely, especially if the Russians can never establish air superiority and bring to bear their attack aircraft to pound the larger Ukrainian dug in units, meaning the Russians will have to slog through them.  It changes the math from quick victory to costly protracted ground attack for the Russians.  This increases the deterrence. 

Deterrence = threat.  F-35 threat > threat from F-15s and 16s.  Deterrence F-35 > Deterrence F-15/16s. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 18, 2022, 01:41:46 PM
“When a war breaks out, people say: 'It's too stupid, it can't last long. ' But though a war may be 'too stupid,' that doesn't prevent its lasting.” -Albert Camus


Quote
“But what I would like to know," says Albert, "is whether there would not have
been a war if the Kaiser had said No."

"I'm sure there would," I interject, "he was against it from the first."

"Well, if not him alone, then perhaps if twenty or thirty people in the world had said No."

"That's probable," I agree, "but they damned well said Yes."

"It's queer, when one thinks about it," goes on Kropp, "we are here to protect our fatherland. And the French are over there to protect their fatherland. Now who's in the right?"

"Perhaps both," say I without believing it.

"Yes, well now," pursues Albert, and I see that he means to drive me into a corner, "but our professors and parsons and newspapers say that we are the only ones that are right, and let's hope so;--but the French professors and parsons and newspapers say that the right is on their side, now what about that?"

"That I don't know," I say, "but whichever way it is there's war all the same and every month more countries coming in."

Tjaden reappears. He is still quite excited and again joins the conversation, wondering just how a war gets started.

"Mostly by one country badly offending another," answers Albert with a slight air of superiority.

Then Tjaden pretends to be obtuse. "A country? I don't follow. A mountain in Germany cannot offend a mountain in France. Or a river, or a wood, or a field of wheat."

"Are you really as stupid as that, or are you just pulling my leg?" growls Kropp, "I don't mean that at all. One people offends the other--"

"Then I haven't any business here at all," replies Tjaden, "I don't feel myself offended."

"Well, let me tell you," says Albert sourly, "it doesn't apply to tramps like you."

"Then I can be going home right away," retorts Tjaden, and we all laugh, "Ach, man! he means the people as a whole, the State--" exclaims Mller.

"State, State"--Tjaden snaps his fingers contemptuously, "Gendarmes, police, taxes, that's your State;--if that's what you are talking about, no, thank you."

"That's right," says Kat, "you've said something for once, Tjaden. State and home-country, there's a big difference."

"But they go together," insists Kropp, "without the State there wouldn't be any home-country."

"True, but just you consider, almost all of us are simple folk. And in France, too, the majority of men are labourers, workmen, or poor clerks. Now just why would a French blacksmith or a French shoemaker want to attack us? No, it is merely the rulers. I had never seen a Frenchman before I came here, and it will be just the same with the majority of Frenchmen as regards us. They weren't asked about it any more than we were."

"Then what exactly is the war for?" asks Tjaden.

Kat shrugs his shoulders. "There must be some people to whom the war is useful."

"Well, I'm not one of them," grins Tjaden.

"Not you, nor anybody else here."

"Who are they then?" persists Tjaden.

"It isn't any use to the Kaiser either. He has everything he can want already."

"I'm not so sure about that," contradicts Kat, "he has not had a war up till now. And every full-grown emperor requires at least one war, otherwise he would not become famous. You look in your school books."

"And generals too," adds Detering, "they become famous through war."

"Even more famous than emperors," adds Kat.

"There are other people back behind there who profit by the war, that's certain," growls Detering.

"I think it is more of a kind of fever," says Albert. "No one in particular wants it, and then all at once there it is. We didn't want the war, the others say the same thing--and yet half the world is in it all the same.”

Erich Maria Remarque, All Quiet on the Western Front


“Anyone who thinks must think of the next war as they would of suicide.”  - Roosevelt

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on February 18, 2022, 02:35:24 PM
F-15s and F-16s are designs from 40 years ago.

F-15 and F-16 with modern upgrades are pretty formidable.  Stealth isn't that important, and the larger load outs probably are more important.  Also maintenance lower and thus tempo are probably much higher with the older systems.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on February 18, 2022, 02:46:49 PM
Grant, see this analysis of F-15 vs the Russian SU-35

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/who-dominates-air-russias-su-35-vs-americas-f-15-eagle-198914

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/americas-f-15-eagle-vs-russias-su-35-fighter-who-wins-13815

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 18, 2022, 03:18:47 PM
Grant, see this analysis of F-15 vs the Russian SU-35

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/who-dominates-air-russias-su-35-vs-americas-f-15-eagle-198914

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/americas-f-15-eagle-vs-russias-su-35-fighter-who-wins-13815

I mean, yeah.  I agree with everything there.  They're comparable platforms where the best pilot would probably win. 

Quote
He concluded that regardless of their differences, the two aircraft were more or less closely matched. As a result, supporting assets and pilot skill are more likely to determine the outcomes of an engagement between the two rather than any technological gap.

Just like I said: "Su-35s, Su-27s, Mig-29s, even the old Mig-31s with the new hypersonic AAMs, can all tangle horns with F-15s and F-16s."

But like I also said, the reason I give the advantage to Russia here is because they have a big numerical advantage.  Two squadrons of F-15s and a single squadron of F-16s can't stand up to 3 squadrons of Su-35s, 3 squadrons of Su-27s, and 2 squadrons of M-29s, all at once.  They're simply going to be overwhelmed.  I don't expect the Russians to mass all their fighters like that on a single strike, but attrition will take it's toll. 

Meanwhile, an F-35 can bushwack Russian fighter formations in the air or on the ground and is a real force multiplier. 

I'm not trying to take anything away from F-15s and F-16s.  Particularly F-16s in a dogfight.  They're outrageous.  But F-35s are just better. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 18, 2022, 03:20:02 PM
F-15s and F-16s are designs from 40 years ago.

F-15 and F-16 with modern upgrades are pretty formidable.  Stealth isn't that important, and the larger load outs probably are more important.  Also maintenance lower and thus tempo are probably much higher with the older systems.

Yeah.  Su-27s and Mig-29s are 40 years old too.  But they're also upgraded and there are more of them. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 18, 2022, 03:22:13 PM
I think you've already lost the plot if we're down to kill ratios. Yes, the 35 is obviously superior. But I can't imagine it making a difference in preventing a conflict, only in the effectiveness of winning it. We had air superiority in Iraq from the first hour, how'd that go in the long run?

 ::)

It went really well in the long run.  Imagine how much worse it would have been if we hadn't had air superiority during all that time.  I don't think anybody has ever blamed our problems in Iraq on a lack of air power.  Jeez. 

The reason F-35s add to deterrence is the threat they pose and the effectiveness it presents.  F-15s and F-16s can make it more costly for Pooter.  But the more costly you can make it, the better the deterrence, correct?  It's like poker.  Adding F-15s and F-16 is a raise.  But two squadrons of F-35s is an even bigger raise.  A much bigger raise.  The F-15s and F-16s will make it more costly but they're still just a speed bump because they will be attrited eventually and the Russians will have air supremacy and a larger more mobile army with greater indirect fire capability. 

On the other hand, having F-35s is the difference between the Russians having to fight just a pack of Wolverines from Calumet, Colorado, and having to fight a squad of Predators from Yuatja Prime.  The cost goes up immensely, especially if the Russians can never establish air superiority and bring to bear their attack aircraft to pound the larger Ukrainian dug in units, meaning the Russians will have to slog through them.  It changes the math from quick victory to costly protracted ground attack for the Russians.  This increases the deterrence. 

Deterrence = threat.  F-35 threat > threat from F-15s and 16s.  Deterrence F-35 > Deterrence F-15/16s.

Sure, I'll grant you that. I'm just saying that it's deterrence level 87% versus 89%, not a game changer. The real deterrence is that you're going to be shooting it out with NATO in any form. Because if the 35's are needed two weeks in, they'll get moved over there. We made it pretty clear to the Russians via our Afghan war that we can launch planes from the Continental United States and refuel them in midair and bomb a country on the other side of the earth.

A better argument might be that using the 35's will save NATO pilots lives. But it isn't going to determine whether Putin goes in or not. There's also no commitment to put any air assets over Ukraine, is there? My understanding is that they are in Poland to defend Poland. Or did somebody declare a no-fly zone when I wasn't looking?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 18, 2022, 04:09:57 PM

Sure, I'll grant you that. I'm just saying that it's deterrence level 87% versus 89%, not a game changer. The real deterrence is that you're going to be shooting it out with NATO in any form.

See, we disagree here.  It's a difference of 20% and 80%. 

See, if you're Pooter, and you are now thinking about dealing with two squadrons of F-15s and a squadron of F-16s, this is how the math goes:

"If NATO commits, and that's not given, but if they do commit, then the price of having to deal with the F-15s and F-16s will be about 40-60 of my own fighters and a delay in the ground offensive of about two to seven days.  That's more pain, but not significantly.  On the upside, I get to defeat NATO and embarrass them.  This is lagniappe for me."

vs the F-35 scenario:

"If NATO commits, and that's not given, but if they do, then the price of having to deal with two squadrons of F-15s, two squadrons of F-35s, and a single squadron of F-16s, might be my entire air forces deployed in the area.  We're talking 120 of my own fights, 100 of my attack aircraft, plus helicopters.  The ground attack would be delayed indefinitely or if I kick off at the jump, then my ground casualties will be multiplied anywhere from 2 to 10 times what it would have been previously.   So if I was hoping to lose only 1000 Russian soldiers, now I could lose 2000 to 10,000.  Easy.  And I lose to NATO and get embarrassed." 

See, the risk involved is much larger under the F-35 scenario because it just becomes too hard to tell what exactly could happen.  Maybe the Russians win, but the cost is so much higher.  Or maybe the Russians are bogged down in a stalemate and can't win quickly, giving the advantage to NATO.  That's an outright loss.  Can't risk it.  The deterrence produced by the F-35s really is that much bigger because they are that much more capable and you're cutting down on the numbers advantage.  *censored*, put two to three squadrons of F-22s in Poland or Romania and it's not even a gamble anymore, but suicide. 

Quote
Because if the 35's are needed two weeks in, they'll get moved over there.

The war could be over in 4 to 7 days, even against F-15s and F-16s where the Russians don't dare to hit their bases.  They're simply going to be attrited.  There won't be two weeks.  Ivan will need only 2-3 days of air superiority to soften up the Ukrainian ground formations in order to steamroll them with a massive ground attack.  We're talking ass loads of SU-33s and Su-25s, plus russian ground attack choppers like Hinds and Havocs and whatever new crap they have come up with.  NATO isn't going to move more assets and fighters into the area if the battle has basically been lost.  They may try and reconsolidate a defense on the western side of the Dnieper, but all the Russians have to do is keep driving west to Poland and Moldova. 

Quote
We made it pretty clear to the Russians via our Afghan war that we can launch planes from the Continental United States and refuel them in midair and bomb a country on the other side of the earth.

Nobody wants to send B-52s or B-1s or even B-2s against the Russian Air Force, over Russia, without escorts.  Fighting the Russians is different than fighting the Afghans because the Afghans never had a damn air force or air defense network like Ivan has.  Plus it would widen the theatre of war without a clear path to victory.  The only way using those forces over Ukraine works if if you can tie up the Russian Air Force with our own fighters. 

Quote
There's also no commitment to put any air assets over Ukraine, is there? My understanding is that they are in Poland to defend Poland. Or did somebody declare a no-fly zone when I wasn't looking?

No.  This is a good point, but it has to be something that keeps Pooter up at night.  There is your deterrence.  Your risk just increased.  The RAF is already flying surveillance with RC-135s over Ukraine, and the USAF has been flying drones and RC-135 missions into the Black Sea. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 18, 2022, 08:03:42 PM
Biden Press Conference:

"And do you have any indication about wether President Putin has made the decision about wether to invade?  Do you feel confident that he has made that decision already?

"As of this moment I'm convinced that he's made the decision.  We have reason to believe that."

....

"To be clear, you are convinced that President Putin is going to invade Ukraine. Is that what you said just a few minutes ago?"

"Yes I did. Yes."

"What reason do you have to believe that he has considering that option at all?"

"We have a significant intelligence capability.  Thank you very much." 


That damn CIA and NSA again.  When are they every going to learn? 

Pretty bold putting it all on the table.  After all, the Russian state controlled media and Kremlin puppets are saying the exact opposite.  I mean, who to believe?  THERE ARE JUST SO MANY CONFLICTING REPORTS.  JUST YESTERDAY THE FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES SAID THAT HE WON THE ELECTION.  I DON'T KNOW WHO TO BELIEVE!  RUSSIA SAYS THEY ARE PULLING TROOPS BACK.  PUTIN LAUGHS AT WESTERN OVERREACTION TO 150,000 TROOPS ON BORDER.  UKRAINIANS ARE COMMITING GENOCIDE AGAINST RUSSIANS!  PHARMA COMPANIES ARE HIDING IVERMECTIN CURES COVID!  THE MOON LANDING IS FAKE!  ALIENS!  ISRAELI SPACE LASERS! 

I mean, it's obviously just to sell more magazines. 


So Ivan's plan was supposed to be:

1. Cyberattack

2. Provocation

3. False Flag

4. SOF/Spetznaz disruption

5. Air campaign to knock out Ukrainian AF and soften major Ukrainian ground formations

6. Ground attack in two main axis:  Both banks of the Dnieper from Belarus to Kiev.  Belgorod to Karkiv to Dnipro.  Feint on Odessa.  Cut off Ukrainian troops in Donetsk Oblast. 

 
So we've so far already seen 1, 2, and 3.  The cyber attacks were kinda pathetic.  I expected more.  The provocation bombardments are as expected.  If the genocide bit is the false flag, I expected more there as well.  Maybe they're still going to pull out some kind of weird Potemkin village thing.


Surprised they are not doing more given that whatever they have promised already in hopes of deterrence (sanctions, economic and diplomatic, etc) are obviously not working.  It's so easy.  Just commit.  This isn't Hungary 1956.  This isn't Czechoslovakia 1968. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 19, 2022, 11:03:55 AM
So last night (early morning in Kiev) Russian backed separatists started evacuating civilians in the Donbass Oblast to Russia. 

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/east-ukraine-shelling-russian-invasion-fears-putin-pretext-rcna16773

Artillery attacks against Ukrainian targets seem to be increasing.  Not sure if it is still for the purpose of provoking a response or actually trying to soften positions.  I don't think the full press is on yet. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-news-shelling-donbas-buildup-latest-us-invasion-pretext-blinken-lavrov/

The Russians are conducting their annual strategic nuclear drill.  Neat timing. 

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-joe-biden-europe-russia-vladimir-putin-91749e368bb54bdc42cd747496a21a2f

Russian female skater team rough times

https://apnews.com/article/winter-olympics-figure-skating-russian-future-e78712d7caa50e7f9587de975c4bc2c8

Zelensky is in Munich, trying to cajole Europe into actually helping Ukraine instead of watching from the sidelines.  The Italians and Hungarians are already putting a monkey in the wrench for sanctions on Russian gas exports.  They just need that gas baby.  Hooked.  Looks like the EU will be impotent diplomatically because they have no stick.  They need unanimous agreement to sanction Russia. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/19/ukrainian-president-munich-conference-russia-volodymyr-zelenskiy

Zelensky says if the US and UK are not going to help defend Ukrainian sovereignty, and if Russia isn't going to respect it, he wants his nuclear weapons back per Budapest Agreement 1994. 

Zelensky says Ukrainians are going to fight with or without help from partners.  Saying countries not standing by Ukraine "should think about karma". 

https://kyivindependent.com/

Zelensky wants to stop hearing that "the door is open, but you're not allowed in" from NATO. 

A bit of a slow boil going on now.  Still rising in temperature but watching the pot seems to be the sure way that nothing will happen.  Warnings keep coming but at this rate Russia can simply just keep up the pressure for months. 

A bunch of talk from Biden on the unity of NATO and Europe, but I honestly don't see it.  Germany, Hungary, and Italy are peeing in the punch bowl. 

Getting Europe off Russian gas won't be easy.  It would have been if the anti-nuke nutjobs in the 80s and 90s had let some countries build more nuclear reactors.  But that's why they're nuts. 

Edit: 

Russia to play Finland in Men's Hockey Final in Olympics on Sunday.  I think at 11 tonight Central US Time. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/sports/olympics/finland-russia-hockey-gold-medal-game.html#:~:text=Finland%20and%20Russia%20will%20play%20for%20the%20gold%20in%20men's%20hockey.&text=The%20Russians%20defeated%20Sweden%2C%202,0%2C%20earlier%20in%20the%20day.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 20, 2022, 10:20:57 AM
Russian false flag attempts dissected by Bellingcat using online community and metadata. 

https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1495355366141534208?cxt=HHwWgIC5vYzyyMApAAAA

I'm embarrassed to link to Twitter but Bellingcat hasn't put it up on it's webpage yet and it's one of those things that is high quality content. 

Video is published by Russian Separatists claiming to show sabotage operation on chlorine tanks.  Bellingcat collaborators online use metadata to find the video was created on the 8th of February, 10 days before the claimed sabotage.  Additional metadata points to the sound from the video being taken from a different video on a military firing range in Finland. 

An overview of additional attempts at false flags, all debunked using metadata, including emergency evacuation video and a car bombing video. 

https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/02/20/the-busted-info-ops-driving-russias-false-flag-pretexts-for-invading-ukraine/


Increasing signs that there are different levels of stomach in the EU for sanctioning Russia severely in the case of an invasion, despite all the talk of European/American unity.  Was there ever a chance for diplomacy or economic deterrence?  Pooter doesn't seem to think so, or thinks he's isolated enough that it won't hurt.  He might be right. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/15/sanctions-slam-on-russia-not-swift-united-00009199

Edit:  Finland beats the Russians in hockey at the Olympics, 2 to 1. 

https://www.espn.com/olympics/story/_/id/33333624/finland-beats-roc-win-nation-first-olympic-men-ice-hockey-gold-medal

Finish cross-country skier suffers frostbite to penis during 50km race for a 28th place finish.  Russians capture gold and bronze due to lack of penises. 

https://nypost.com/2022/02/20/finland-skier-remi-lindholm-suffers-frozen-penis-in-olympics-mass-start-race/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-country_skiing_at_the_2022_Winter_Olympics_%E2%80%93_Men%27s_50_kilometre_freestyle
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 20, 2022, 10:48:17 AM
It's not looking good.

Russia is obviously staging attacks on itself including its proxies in Ukraine to use as an excuse to further invade. It's good that they are being called out for the obvious frauds that they are and nobody accepts that Ukraine is attacking Russia right now as the Russians are claiming. Hopefully the world media and the United Nations itself will make it clear that everyone knows the Russians are behaving like liars and thieves, murderers and worse, and on top of that their attempts at maskirovka are pathetic. Nobody's buying it. Nobody.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 20, 2022, 02:14:11 PM
Nobody's buying it. Nobody.

I think rural Russians and hard core Putinverstehen Russians in the cities are buying it.  Maybe it was meant for them.  Otherwise these "false flags" are pretty pathetic and being ground up and spit out by internet amateurs.  I guess it's more credible from them than from the CIA/MI6, etc.  I dunno.  I was expecting more from RUSSIAN FSB! But maybe I shouldn't have.  The same people are the ones who tracked down the GRU assassins running around Europe and got them to confess over the phone to the guy they were trying to kill.  But if they're so incompetent how were they able to actually get away with half those assassinations? 

I bet there is at least one crazy member of the Trumpy right who believes it.  Candace Owens or somebody.   That other crazy mofo.  Alex Jones? 

I mean, these are the same people who showed that Assad was behind Ghouta but nobody believed them back then.  Everybody thought THAT was a false flag.  It seems to me that actual false flags are pretty pathetic and only believable by people who see what they want to see, and actual atrocities are believed to be false flags by others who don't want to see what they are seeing and the level of skill being attributed to organizations to create these false flags is near superhuman.   
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 20, 2022, 02:22:04 PM
the level of skill being attributed to organizations to create these false flags is near superhuman.

I guess when you grow up watching conspiracy programs on tv about how the moon landing was faked and how the CIA killed Kennedy you end up believing that intelligence agencies have all kinds of weird abilities to fake *censored*.   
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 20, 2022, 02:37:03 PM
I guess when you grow up watching conspiracy programs on tv about how the moon landing was faked and how the CIA killed Kennedy you end up believing that intelligence agencies have all kinds of weird abilities to fake *censored*.   

I know this is a tangent, but...lol...lumping those two together. This is actually one reason why conspiracy theorists are so hard to talk with; not that they won't talk about it, but when their interlocutors treat every claim as equivalent they basically get the idea that no one is willing to question anything, and they end up left in a bubble of their own.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 20, 2022, 03:02:21 PM
This is actually one reason why conspiracy theorists are so hard to talk with; not that they won't talk about it, but when their interlocutors treat every claim as equivalent they basically get the idea that no one is willing to question anything, and they end up left in a bubble of their own.

You talk all the time, Fenring.  About Chase Manhattan being behind entire wars and how there MUST BE some voter fraud and we're all being blind.  Where were you on the Ghouta massacre?  I can't remember and I don't think those old threads are still available.

Quote
I know this is a tangent, but...lol...lumping those two together.

Please find a bubble to talk about it in.  Talk to some people about how the CIA managed to kill the President without anybody ever finding out.  Or were you referring to how the government built a huge fleet of expensive rockets to fake landing on the moon?  Or is it how Prince Phillip had Princess Di assassinated? 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 20, 2022, 03:04:44 PM
Not equivalent. There's a range from preposterous to wildly unlikely. Some things Oliver Stone can cash in on, other ones can only be exploited by Alex Jones. The history channel can exploit ancient alien visitations, but only YouTubers can exploit 9/11 hoaxes.

All of them belong in the shoebox of innuendo, suspicion, and lack of evidence.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 20, 2022, 03:14:14 PM
All of them belong in the shoebox of innuendo, suspicion, and lack of evidence.

Back to my point that all these real false flags are easily identifiable and these real conspiracies/assassinations are pathetic, as opposed to the superhuman competence of the CIA and Prince Phillip. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 20, 2022, 04:49:35 PM
You talk all the time, Fenring.  About Chase Manhattan being behind entire wars

I don't think I've posted about anything regard banks/wars in...at minimum years. That being said, heh, if you think banks have no interest in financing wars...well I guess I can't help you with that. I guess no one cares to make money off war in the world...

Quote
and how there MUST BE some voter fraud and we're all being blind.  Where were you on the Ghouta massacre?  I can't remember and I don't think those old threads are still available.

I don't think I've ever posted about voter fraud in the sense of championing the position that there's huge voter fraud in the U.S. I do remember posting at one point maybe 8 years ago that I had read that electronic voting can be hacked, but I never claimed it was. You're mistaking me for someone else on this, I think. The main things I am pretty certain about are "conspiracies" in the sense of powerful people planning things together. You can file that under "duh". Whether Kennedy's death is one of those I don't know, but if you think there's no evidence to back it up you haven't done much reading on the topic. I've done enough to know it was really weird, but not enough to have the information at my fingertips to tell you which way I think the evidence points. I have no idea about that one, but only that it's clearly not a crank theory.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 20, 2022, 04:58:12 PM
Can there be false flags that work? Sure, that's no conspiracy. But they tend to have limited scope and applicability. The incidents in the Gulf of Tonkin come to mind. A lot easier to pull off at sea and in an era when it's hard to gather evidence. There remains doubt about precisely what happened there, and more importantly why. That wouldn't necessarily suggest that it wouldn't have been a conspiracy theory at the time to suggest the United States faked the attack or manipulated the details. A lot has to do with the level of certainty.

For instance, you hear a news report about this, and immediately declare that the US faked the whole thing. Or, you immediately declare the Russians faked attacks before getting any details. Or you assume that a lab leak started covid with no evidence to base it on. Some things that start out as conspiracy theories can in fact turn out to be true or become plausible over time. There's plenty of room for healthy speculation about things based solely on an unsupported hypothesis.

Like, I wonder if 9/11 was faked because the United States wanted an excuse to go to war is just a theory and speculation. Until you get the full biographies of the perpetrators, analysis by hundreds of structural engineers, forensic examination of multiple disaster sites. Which is where the conspiracy part comes in. That all of the people out there telling you this was clearly what it appeared to be have all been fooled or they are complicit.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 21, 2022, 04:00:07 AM
F-15s and F-16s are designs from 40 years ago.

F-15 and F-16 with modern upgrades are pretty formidable.  Stealth isn't that important, and the larger load outs probably are more important.  Also maintenance lower and thus tempo are probably much higher with the older systems.

Yeah.  Su-27s and Mig-29s are 40 years old too.  But they're also upgraded and there are more of them.

You guys do realize many of our NATO allies in Europe are operating F35 squadrons of their own right now?

The F15 mission profile for the Americans is probably to play missile truck for NATO F35s while the US keeps theirs in reserve for contingencies re: China
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 21, 2022, 08:34:56 AM
The US does have a squadron of F35A fighters in Germany now. People need to realize that for a fighter with tanker support, that is trivial. And for likely early conflict combat roles. They need the F35 in a "well defended" area to ensure continued operational capabilities and security. You don't park their support equipment on the front lines unless you're willing to let it be captured. The F15 and F16 logistics tail is far less of a concern in comparison, so they get to be based in the front row...

However the other piece of the puzzle to remember is a major role for the F35 planes will be to act as remote sensing and fire direction for the F15 and F16 fleet. The F35 can fly into theater. Loiter around as it gives telemetry to allow entire squadrons of F15's to unload their arsenal from a comparatively safe distance, then return to rearm.

Which is where the F15/F16 being on the front row comes very handy. Reloads are very close by for them.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 09:21:23 AM
The US does have a squadron of F35A fighters in Germany now.

I'll admit I was unaware of this.  I see the 388 FW deployed F-35s from Hill AFB to Spangelhelm. I wasn't expecting them to bring them in from Utah when they have some at Lakenheath. 

Quote
People need to realize that for a fighter with tanker support, that is trivial.

Eh.  It's not TRIVIAL, but yes they can get into the fight if needed. 

The reason why I say it is not trivial is because of what you mentioned about reloads.  If the fight is above Donesk or north of Kiev, the Russians have a much quicker turnaround.  You tangle over Donesk, the F-35s have to go back, what 300 miles to get back to Germany?  The Russians have to go back 60 miles to get back to their bases.  They have a quicker turnaround time. 

I mean, there is no way around this.  It may be a good idea to keep the F-35s in Germany rather than Poland or Romania.  Maybe to stay out of range of short range ballistic missiles or cruise missiles.  Maybe there is better air defense there.  I dunno.  It would be better to be in Poland or Romania in terms of turnaround time, but it is what it is. 

Quote
You guys do realize many of our NATO allies in Europe are operating F35 squadrons of their own right now?

Yeah, but I'm unaware of the Danes or Italians or the Dutch forward deploying any of theirs.  I suppose the Italians really don't need to forward deploy, depending on where they are based.  I don't see the Norwegians deploying theirs, they are close enough to Russia to probably want to hang on to theirs. 

Quote
However the other piece of the puzzle to remember is a major role for the F35 planes will be to act as remote sensing and fire direction for the F15 and F16 fleet. The F35 can fly into theater. Loiter around as it gives telemetry to allow entire squadrons of F15's to unload their arsenal from a comparatively safe distance, then return to rearm.

Eh.  Yes I think that is one of the great abilities of the F-35.  But I'm unsure if the F-16s or F-15s are hooked up to whatever data-link system is being used.  I suppose they could relay through Sentry AWACs.  I don't really know.  I think I could pretty well guess that even with the ability to spot, that the F-35 would have to turn on radar to guide in AMRAAMs until they go bulldog, not sure what that range is.  But having the F-35s turn on their radar somewhat defeats the purpose of their stealth capability.  I'd sooner just have the F-16s and F-15s be guided in by AWACS. 

Something that I had forgotten was that the Russians do have a squadron of Su-57s to the east of Crimea.  I don't know why they don't show up as part of SMD air forces.  But those could be very problematic for F-15s or F-16s. 


But all of this could just be interpreted as a bluff anyways.  NATO really hasn't come out to say they would give air support to Ukraine.  A bluff/threat is better than nothing, but not sure if it is going to deter Pooter.  Can only hope. 

Ukraine Defense Minister says the Russians are not in assault formations yet and says that an invasion would not happen today or tomorrow.  If an air campaign happens first, not really sure they need to be in position though. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 21, 2022, 10:09:31 AM
However the other piece of the puzzle to remember is a major role for the F35 planes will be to act as remote sensing and fire direction for the F15 and F16 fleet. The F35 can fly into theater. Loiter around as it gives telemetry to allow entire squadrons of F15's to unload their arsenal from a comparatively safe distance, then return to rearm.

Eh.  Yes I think that is one of the great abilities of the F-35.  But I'm unsure if the F-16s or F-15s are hooked up to whatever data-link system is being used.  I suppose they could relay through Sentry AWACs.  I don't really know.  I think I could pretty well guess that even with the ability to spot, that the F-35 would have to turn on radar to guide in AMRAAMs until they go bulldog, not sure what that range is.  But having the F-35s turn on their radar somewhat defeats the purpose of their stealth capability.  I'd sooner just have the F-16s and F-15s be guided in by AWACS.

It uses Link-16 to my understanding. Interoperability was a big thing for the F-35 after their mea culpa with the F-22's, which could only talk to other F-22's. (The F-35 can talk to the F-22's as well, advantage of being a newer design/build)  F-22 communications with the wider aircraft fleet without an F-35 "interpreter" is still an "in progress" development not yet deployed on the F22 to my knowledge.

But the F-35 can talk to everyone else, and often replaces AWACS in the areas it is operating in.

You also need to realize that 300 miles for a plane that can "supercruise" is less about 10 minutes away. So long as the only thing they're needing is fuel(because they're using the F-15 and F-16 to field the ordnance) their flight time is potentially rather long, although total time of station could be a bit spotty as they have to eventually run back to refuel at a safe distance. But as we're talking squadrons of F-35's and not just one or two planes, you just keep rotating F-35 flight groups in and out as they need to refuel... And let everyone else deliver the actual pain, and fly back to rearm.

Edit: I'm pretty sure those cooperative scenarios are where the claims of kill ratios in excess of 20 to 1 are coming from with the F-35, as most score keepers will tend to credit the kill to the aircraft that launched the missile, rather than the one that provided the telemetry.  8)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 10:47:51 AM
You also need to realize that 300 miles for a plane that can "supercruise" is less about 10 minutes away. So long as the only thing they're needing is fuel(because they're using the F-15 and F-16 to field the ordnance) their flight time is potentially rather long, although total time of station could be a bit spotty as they have to eventually run back to refuel at a safe distance. But as we're talking squadrons of F-35's and not just one or two planes, you just keep rotating F-35 flight groups in and out as they need to refuel... And let everyone else deliver the actual pain, and fly back to rearm.

OK.  Actual distance from Spangdahlem to Kiev is 1000 miles.  I don't think F-35s have supercruise the way F-22s do.  They cannot reach supersonic without going to afterburner, which sucks up alot of fuel.  But they can maintain supersonic without afterburner.  If supersonic is roughly 1000mph, that's still an hour to get there and another hour to get back.  Meanwhile the Russians can get back to the battlespace in two hours counting time to refuel and rearm.  Plus the F-35 probably has to refuel over Poland before going on station, especially if using supercruise, and then refuel again over Poland to get back.  This is the exact opposite of the advantage the Brits had in 1940, where their Spits and Hurricanes could fly multiple sorties per day over Britain while the Germans had to fly all the way back to France or Germany and could only sortie once per day.  Plus the Russians are going to have S-300s and S-400s close to the border with good ranges into Ukraine.  Even if NATO provides air support other than surveillance capability, which they are already providing now, I don't think that they will authorize strikes into Belarus or Russia, the same way the Russians, even if some NATO countries like the US and UK provide air support, would not strike into Poland or Romania. 

It's just the map.  The Russian air bases are closer to the battlefield, with or without supercruise. 

Good info on the Link-16 stuff.  Thumbs up. 

Anyways, it's probably all bluff anyways.  I wouldn't bet that NATO would support Ukraine with air cover.  I would love it if they would, but my read of US and NATO is that they are hoping economic sanctions will be a deterrent, and I just don't think they will, because I don't think the Germans, Italians, Hungarians, and Finns are all going to turn off Russian gas, which would be the only deterrent that I believe could work.  If they're going to bluff I wish they'd do a better job of it.  If Pooter is bluffing, he's doing a much better job. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 21, 2022, 11:06:50 AM
Honestly I think the sanctions are more of a play to get Russia to give it back should they take it, rather than one to stop it outright, beyond being a bluff.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 21, 2022, 11:17:41 AM
Okay, F-35 Supercruise without afterburner is limited to 10 to 12 minutes and they don't want to fly supersonic for long periods of time due to it degrading stealth coating in the tail section in addition to heat generation. The B and C variants may be limited to 1 minute at a time on afterburner.  :o

And generally speaking the speed of sound is about 767 miles per hour.

So sustained supercruise seems to be the playground of the F22
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 21, 2022, 12:10:46 PM
"... because I don't think the Germans, Italians, Hungarians, and Finns are all going to turn off Russian gas..."

I wonder if sanctions on our allies when they buy Russian gas might be an option, an option that could be put on the table as a possible deterrent to Russia and to get those countries maybe helping diplomatically in direct talks with Russia themselves to maybe talk Russia out of doing what it looks like they're about to do.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 12:26:54 PM
I wonder if sanctions on our allies when they buy Russian gas might be an option, an option that could be put on the table as a possible deterrent to Russia and to get those countries maybe helping diplomatically in direct talks with Russia themselves to maybe talk Russia out of doing what it looks like they're about to do.

No.  That would be the wrong move IMO.  It would simply drive them closer to Russia.  Piss them off more.  I mean, the whole point is to be helping NATO countries against aggression and economic pressure by foreign countries.  I don't see how turning the United States into the one also applying economic pressure helps. 

I would consider kicking them out of NATO, if that was possible, I'm not sure, and I'm not sure if that would help either.  I don't know exactly how NATO works.  Maybe just relegate their status, so they don't have a real role at the table.  I have no idea. Downgrading trade status.  I suppose that is a kind of economic sanction. 

Honestly, the feel the best thing to do is to have a supply of gas to give them in case of emergency, and try as much as possible to turn Germany and the rest back on to nuclear power.  Not sure how that's going to work. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 02:47:20 PM
Well, Pooter, after scaring the *censored* out of his own security council, is making a speech where he's basically recognizing the separatist provinces in Ukraine.  Much of both which is still occupied by Ukrainian nationalist forces.  Says the former Soviet Republics should have never been given the opportunity to leave.  Russian humiliation.  Ukrainians getting nukes. 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden

Quote
President Vladimir V. Putin announced Monday evening that Russia would recognize the independence of two territories in Ukraine controlled by Moscow-backed separatists, further escalating tensions in what Western nations fear could lead to one of the biggest conflicts in Europe since World War II.

Mr.  Putin gave a lengthy televised address in which he accused Ukraine of being a “puppet” of the United States and said its citizens were being brutalized by its government.

Mr. Putin made the case that Ukraine is by history and makeup an integral part of Russia. “Colleagues, comrades, close ones, relatives, those who are tied up with us in family and blood ties.”

Mr. Putin also laid out a long history of grievances since the fall of the Soviet Union and the loss of the states that once made it up.

“We gave these republics the right to leave the union without any terms and conditions,” he Putin said. “This is just madness.”

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 02:56:32 PM
People 10 years from now will be asking why Europe couldn't see this coming 8 years ago.  Could probably say the same things about certain politicians and pundits in the United States, but I don't think now is the time to hash that out. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 06:57:08 PM

I think rural Russians and hard core Putinverstehen Russians in the cities are buying it.  Maybe it was meant for them. 

I'm pretty certain now, after events today, that this was the case.  Pooter never cared about trying to fool people in NATO or the EU or the United States.  The BS was meant to rally Russians.  He doesn't care how he's going to be perceived by the West.  That should tell you something.  That should worry everyone. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 21, 2022, 08:35:31 PM

I think rural Russians and hard core Putinverstehen Russians in the cities are buying it.  Maybe it was meant for them. 

I'm pretty certain now, after events today, that this was the case.  Pooter never cared about trying to fool people in NATO or the EU or the United States.  The BS was meant to rally Russians.  He doesn't care how he's going to be perceived by the West.  That should tell you something.  That should worry everyone.

Well, everyone in Europe. Not so much the United States. Western Europe is plotting a course for obscurity. (Not yet "Developed") Eastern Asia and Africa are where the new activity is going to be for much of the rest of the century. Just about every major advanced economy, or recently advanced major economy(Russia) is in a state of protracted decline right now.

Russia's just returning to older methods of trying to minimize the long-term losses on his side.

The US has been hot and cold with NATO pretty much since the end of the Cold War, and given how often the US gets blamed for things our Allies talked us into doing... The writing is on the wall for that one, either NATO cleans up its act collectively(unlikely) or the US is unlikely to still be a major player in it by 2050. Especially so in the aftermath of what Putin just did. If they revert back to prior form by 2030, we really should walk away. If they have no interest in defending themselves, why are we bothering?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 10:07:46 PM
Jesus, Linda Thomas-Greenfield is boring.  I can't decide if she sounds bored or if she is just boring.  I'm sure she's brilliant and knows all kinds of stuff, but we need to have the ambassadorship to the UN split into two roles.  One person who is the bureaucrat-intelligentsia, and another person who just gives good speeches.   *censored*, can't we hire Keegan Michael-Key, or Denzel Washington, for just a single speech every once in awhile?  *censored*ing represent the United States, son!  *censored*, have Ice T do it. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 10:14:47 PM
Dude, if I was Zelenskyy, every time somebody like France or Germany expressed "solidarity" with Ukraine, I'd just get more pissed off. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 10:34:33 PM
LOL.  China gives the shortest speech. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 21, 2022, 10:45:31 PM
Well, everyone in Europe. Not so much the United States.

Americans have been saying that about the United States and European affairs since 1793.  Has it ever worked out?  At least back then Washington could point to the fact that the United States was weak compared to the European powers.  Apparently we are back to being weak again, just not in money or power. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 22, 2022, 06:41:18 AM
Strong in money and power but weak in will.

If where there's a will there is a way then we're at the point of there is no will so there is no way.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 22, 2022, 07:39:49 AM
Well, everyone in Europe. Not so much the United States.

Americans have been saying that about the United States and European affairs since 1793.  Has it ever worked out?  At least back then Washington could point to the fact that the United States was weak compared to the European powers.  Apparently we are back to being weak again, just not in money or power.

Weak in will. Comparatively weak in terms of money and power compared to our peak in the 20th Century, but in the almost 250 years of history(in 2026) for this nation as being a nation.. The Post-WW2 Order in general was an aberration which managed to span the entire lifespan of many Americans.

What Putin is showing, and China is likely to (try to) demonstrate soon(tm), is that the Post-WW2 Order is at an end. The US does not have the resources, or inclination to sustain it alone, and its allies are largely feckless, useless, and just as lacking in will as the United States, when it comes to helping sustain that order.

The world will get what it deserves. The United States itself will be fine, North America remains the exclusive playground of the United States, and it remains the world's pre-eminent naval power with no likely credible challenger on its "home turf" for decades yet. The rest of the world will still desire to engage in trade, but the nature of those trading arrangements is likely going to change in a bad way for the developed world if Western Europe doesn't get its *censored* together and help pull its own weight on the military side.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 07:54:41 AM
Strong in money and power but weak in will.

But I'm not sure if that is actually the case.

I think America has a lot of will.  It is just focused in other areas.  Domestic political conflict.  Defending America from Guatemalan Hordes or from Racism or Assault Weapons or Poverty or Inequality or Election Fraud.  Americans by and large are some of the most belligerent people you can ever meet in the world. 

I think it has mainly to do with a new isolationism that cropped up after 1992 and 2004.  In 1992 everybody decided that it was the end of history. Surprise!  We're back to 1938.  Then we developed a case of Iraq Syndrome.  There is a lack of faith in American ability and American intelligence when it comes to foreign interventionism.  This lack of faith is translated into a lack of will.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 08:11:47 AM
The US does not have the resources, or inclination to sustain it alone, and its allies are largely feckless, useless, and just as lacking in will as the United States, when it comes to helping sustain that order.

The United States has plenty of resources.  It has far more resources than Russia, certainly.  We are not comparatively weak compared to Europe.  We have plenty of money.  The United States continues to have a largest GDP in the world, larger than Japan, Germany, UK, France, India, Italy, Brazil, and Canada combined. 

As to being feckless, I would simply point to the idea that Americans have a habit of being feckless as well, even while engaged in conflicts abroad.  Fecklessness isn't a particularly special European disease.  That being said I think there needs to be a scale for this when discussing.  The UK seems to be doing all it can to punch above it's weight class.  The Ukrainians are eastern Europeans such as the Poles are more than willing to do all they can.  But other economic powerhouses on the continent have pulled back from defense spending in favor of a philosophy of economic soft power.  That's not also just a problem of Germany or France.  It's become popular in certain circles in the US as well. 

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The Post-WW2 Order in general was an aberration which managed to span the entire lifespan of many Americans.

It doesn't have to be.  The lessons of WW1 and WW2 can be remembered. 

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The world will get what it deserves. The United States itself will be fine, North America remains the exclusive playground of the United States, and it remains the world's pre-eminent naval power with no likely credible challenger on its "home turf" for decades yet.

Turtling up never works.  A bunker mentality is not what established the post war era.  American leadership was required against the Soviet Union and it is required again.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 22, 2022, 08:31:57 AM
Let's see, what was the Soviet/communist strategy again? Containment. We didn't launch into a war over Hungary. This strategy also led to Vietnam and the Cuban missile crisis.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 22, 2022, 08:37:33 AM
The world will get what it deserves. The United States itself will be fine, North America remains the exclusive playground of the United States, and it remains the world's pre-eminent naval power with no likely credible challenger on its "home turf" for decades yet.

Turtling up never works.  A bunker mentality is not what established the post war era.  American leadership was required against the Soviet Union and it is required again.

I said nothing about "turtling up" as I fully expect the US to continue to invest in both its Navy and its capability to project power well beyond its borders. (With a likely increasing focus on space-based weapons systems going forward if Starship works out--only the nuclear ones are banned by treaty)

And you left out the operative part that should have made it clear I thought the Americans would remain "out there" they just won't be acting as the guarantee of global trade for everyone else. They'll be protecting "close friends" when able/so inclined, but the US Navy's mission will be the protection of US Trade. If China wants Chinese shipping protected? Better build a navy to make it work. Ditto for anyone else who isn't wanting to play ball with the US. Fine, protect your own interests.

The United States itself will be fine, North America remains the exclusive playground of the United States, and it remains the world's pre-eminent naval power with no likely credible challenger on its "home turf" for decades yet. The rest of the world will still desire to engage in trade, but the nature of those trading arrangements is likely going to change in a bad way for the developed world if Western Europe doesn't get its *censored* together and help pull its own weight on the military side.

There is this very common myth that is wildly incorrect that the United States has historically been isolationist. Or that it even was isolationist in the run-up to WW2. It was very internationalist from day 1. It actually managed to achieve many of the things the US Government had been talking about wanting to do since George Washington was President, but only after the post-WW2 order was established.

You can find the founding fathers writing about a future time where all nations should be able to freely engage in trade with one another without need to be concerned about of fear of interference from other parties because everyone involved realized that such arrangements were to their mutual benefit.

Well, the Post-WW2 US-led order did basically achieve the freedom to engage in trade for all nations without respect to their ability to project naval power.  Except the rest of the world seems to be having a hard time grasping the "mutual benefit" part (although the worst offender is China by a large margin), and the order has only really stood for as long as it has because the US has been globally dominant. Only now nations(again, mainly China) are developing the ability to challenge that dominance on at least regional levels. It'll be interesting to see how things play out.

No matter what happens, the US will continue to engage in trade with the rest of the world, it's what we have our Navy for after all. How able the rest of the world is to trade with each other, that's another matter. The United States won't be "going turtle" it will likely be "going neutral" while retaining one of the biggest sticks in the room.

After all, we've 70 years of the entire world criticizing every foreign intervention the United States involved itself in. If we're evidently incapable of doing anything right, we'll just "let things happen" instead unless it involves a compelling national interest... Which sadly, the South China Sea qualifies as for the Western United States(and even Hawaii) being able to easily access the Indian Ocean. Great Circle trade routes are funny things that way.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 09:11:08 AM
Let's see, what was the Soviet/communist strategy again? Containment.

Cool.  Can we contain Russia then now by giving the Ukrainians air support?  Before they roll up the whole country and we're right back here when Russia starts threatening the Baltic states or Finland? 

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We didn't launch into a war over Hungary.

There has been some criticism about the US response to Hungary in academia over the last 30 years.  Personally I think it was the right move and I don't think the situation right now is analogous to Ukraine.  Hungary was a communist country with ties to the USSR that had a rather sudden democratically bent uprising.  But the United States had no assets in Hungary, no ties to any government there, no history of aid, and the Hungarians had no army capable of withstanding the Soviet invasion in 1956.  On top of this, Khrushchev was still seen as an improvement over Stalin.  The situation in Hungary is more comparable to if there was a sudden uprising in Belarus, or if Russia and gone full bore into Ukraine in 2014 instead of just stopping at Crimea.  We have no security relationship with Belarus, no strong diplomatic ties.   

On the other hand, Ukraine is a nation that we've had strengthening ties with over the last 8 years.  They have an army that cannot fight Russia alone, but is capable of costing Russia dearly if given air support, intelligence support, money, arms, and energy.  Everything is in place now to contain Russia here, now.  All that is required is the will, and this is growing. 

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This strategy also led to Vietnam and the Cuban missile crisis.

It sounds like you are giving these examples as failures of the containment strategy.  I'd say the Cuban missile crisis was a success.  I'd say that Vietnam showed the failure of the strategy of containment when your enemy is perfectly willing to maintain a hot war and insurgency for 100 years while you stay on the defensive and do not attack logistical and political centers of gravity of the enemy.  I don't think that Russia is Vietnam because Russia does not have the world communist bloc to funnel it money, arms, and encouragement indefinitely.  All it has is China, though this is food for thought if China decides it is in it's interest to keep Russia going after they begin to suffer debilitating losses to their army, navy, and air force.  But the loss of Vietnam and the subsequent loss of Laos and Cambodia showed that the domino effect theory was correct.  The one thing the brainiacs did not get right was just how fast the Soviet block, China, and the satellite communist countries would fall into infighting instead of creating a sustained cooperation between them. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 09:29:41 AM
After all, we've 70 years of the entire world criticizing every foreign intervention the United States involved itself in.

You forget all the domestic criticism for every foreign intervention the United States involved itself in over the last 70 years.  I don't see how tankies, peaceniks, isolationists, and Putinverstehen should alter the will of the United States to do what is in it's interests and the interests of a stable world. 

And while I love the US Navy, and support maintaining it's strength for defense and trade purposes, history has shown that you cannot protect trade from disruption with a Navy alone.  You need an army and now an air force.   
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 10:04:06 AM
The poop hit the fan last night in terms of public reaction after Putin's speech and the UNSC meeting, culminating in Russia rolling troop trucks into Donbass.  Maybe I'm in a bubble on social media, but I'm hearing strong support for sanctions and various levels of aid. 

I guess I'd rather too much than too little reaction to this, but my read is that the situation has not dramatically changed except that the people who said this would happen are enraged and the people that said this wouldn't happen are shocked.  But rolling infantry into eastern Ukraine already occupied by the separatists is not the sword that is hanging over Ukraine.  The real *censored* has not really hit the fan yet.  There has yet to be any air campaign.  No hard artillery attack.  No armored vehicles crossing the border on the way to Kharkiv or Kiev.  This is in line with Pooters MO of playing "just the tip", so I don't think it's over.  But the reaction last night seems to have been stronger than warranted. 

I mean, sure, if you want to hit sanctions now go for it.  It's showed that the threat wasn't deterrent enough so you may as well show that you have the political will to carry out your promises.  Pooter has wisely probed the EU and NATO to see what they will do.  If nothing happens, he will probably continue on to take everything on the west bank of the Dnieper.  But the ball is now in the EU and NATOs court, and lol, I'm sorry to say he's probably got their number.  I've been saying that it looked like Germany, Italy, and Hungary were not going to be willing to turn off the gas, which I believe would be the only thing that might deter Pooter, or at least hurt the Russian economy enough that they could not sustain those sanctions.  If they're not willing to shut off the gas they will certainly not support any actions that might lead to Pooter shutting off the gas.  The energy policy weakness of central Europe is leading to an inability to respond to Russia, and an overconfidence that mutual trade and belief that the threat of sanctions would protect Europe.  It hasn't.  Central Europe should have been getting off the Russian gas crack-pipe eight years ago. 

If the gas doesn't get shut off, I believe Pooter will take all of Ukraine, piece by piece, slowly by slowly, inch by inch, except that I am told by experts that he cannot keep his army in the field for long.  I'm unsure of this, since the whole purpose of an army is to stay in the field indefinitely. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 22, 2022, 10:24:03 AM
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I'd say the Cuban missile crisis was a success.

It had an acceptable outcome. But riddle me this, wouldn't it have been better to have just never put the missiles into Turkey in the first place that we eventually traded to defuse the crisis?

You just pointed out why Vietnam was dumb. Because all those countries converted to communism anyway, despite massive intervention and over a million deaths including toddler amputees. Unless your contention is that without the friction of Vietnam, Australia or some other established democracy was doomed. It sounds like you're advocating that we should have started bombing nuclear mainland China in order to save Vietnam. That sounds like a fun time.

Containment also meant overthrowing democratically elected governments friendly to the Soviets. And lets not forget arming the Taliban.

Bad, worse, worst.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 10:25:14 AM
Missed this this morning.  Germany put Nord Stream 2 on hold. 

https://www.ft.com/content/09fb49b9-c611-4b19-b1ee-3fd2cbdf44fc

Pretty good news.  It shows that Germany can stand up against Russia and is willing to take some pain.  Germany needs to be supported in it's decision by helping them find alternative supplies of natural gas.  The more gas we can supply Europe the better they can stand against Russia and cut them off at the knees but destroying their highest source of GDP.  This includes ramping up production in the US, Qatar, and Canada, building more LNG carriers, increasing exploration in the North Sea, increasing investment and building of nuclear power plants.  This needs to be done as fast as humanly possible to encourage Germany and Italy and Finland. 

Russians got pissed and promised to raise the price of gas on Germany. 

Criticism of UK sanctions not being tough enough.     

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on February 22, 2022, 10:34:39 AM
After Crimea Ukraine should have gone full Israel. Everyone turning 18 serves 1-2 years in the military. Add a whole bunch of rifles and have them all in the reserves. The only thing short of NATO membership that would stop Putin is for Ukraine to be able to exact a very heavy cost on the Russian forces coming in. If all the citizens between 18-30 are going to get called up to fight it changes the invasion calculus. If the active duty military can stay organized enough to stop tanks from rolling anywhere and maintain some anti-aircraft capabilities then having enough reserves with rifles can hold a lot of ground.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 11:23:55 AM
After Crimea Ukraine should have gone full Israel. Everyone turning 18 serves 1-2 years in the military. Add a whole bunch of rifles and have them all in the reserves.

Since 2014 the Ukrainian Armed Forces have gone through a bunch of reform.  They did not go "full Israel", even though to do annual conscription, and the populace is available for conscription when necessary.  I think this is the right move on Ukraine and I will say way. 

The reforms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, particularly the Ukrainian Army, since 2014 have been widespread, but not focused on creating a large conscription army and giving everyone a rifle and a clip and throwing them out there to fight Russians.  From the get-go, the Ukrainians asked for assistance from NATO in developing a reform plan.  The idea was not to create a large conscript army, but to build a larger professional army with better training, better equipment, better organization, and better leadership.  The Ukrainians agreed with this because the feeling was, even in former Soviet countries, that large poorly equipped and poorly training conscript armies could not fight against the better trained, better equipped, but smaller NATO armies.  This is even reflected in the way the Russians have reformed their military since 2014, relying much less on conscripts and building a (relatively) more professional military since the fall of the Soviet Union.  So fighting Russians isn't exactly the same as fighting conscripted Arab armies in 1967 or 1973.  I don't recall the Israelis ever being saved by mass infantry assaults or defenses anyways.  They won by heaving a better equipped and better trained professional tank corps, (including reserves), and a better equipped and better trained Air Force. They also had the advantage of terrain on their border with Syria.  The Ukrainians have no benefits of defensive terrain other than the Dnieper River and urban areas. 

Jezus.  The IAF and Israeli tankers were nearly legendary for what they did in 1973 back in the '80s.  They basically what that is was possible and became a prototype for how NATO would defend West Germany. 

So the NATO advisors focused on not just a larger army, which doubled in size since 2014, and better equipping them and giving them better tactics, but overhauling the organization and command and control system from the old Soviet model that the Ukrainians had to a more NATO style.  The idea being that the Ukrainian Army might suffer severe losses among leadership and command and control capabilities in the opening rounds of an defense against the Russian Army, and due to the Russian's cyber ability.  So the most important idea was to teach decentralization in the Ukrainian Army.  Give smaller unit commanders the training and knowledge to act on their own without orders from the Ministry of Defense of the nearest General.  Developing Colonels, Majors, and Captains were the key to the NATO reform plan.  So that surviving leadership, cut off from command, could act, survive, and fight.  The Russians make a hole and smash through.  If your remaining forces can organize and rally, they can stay in the fight and do that attrition you talked about. 

The other aspect was equipment.  You can't fight Russian T-80 tanks with rifles.  The Soviets found out how that worked by sending human wave attacks against the Germans in 1941.  So they need Javelin ATGMs to take out Russian tanks.  They need Stinger MANPADS to attrit Russian rotary air power.  (I'm having a flashback to Charlie Wilson's War).  Not only do they need the equipment, but they need to be superbly training on how to use it tactically, in small groups if needed, while on the run and cut off from support.  You can't do that with a conscript army focused on numbers.  They need the most modern secure command and control systems at the lower levels to coordinate between small units and be able to think quicker, move quicker, react quicker, than the Russians. 

So I think the Ukrainians made the best move possible, aided by NATO advisors, NATO training, and NATO equipment.  Even then, the Russian army isn't a slouch.  They still outnumber in infantry and have more artillery and armor.  But the advantage has always been for the defender.  The real weakness of Ukraine is their air power.  They cannot stand against the Russian Air Force.  Without air superiority, or at least a contested air space, no modern army can survive long.  Establishing Air Superiority has basically been the American and NATO way of war since 1944.  The Russians will have air superiority over Ukraine and can achieve it in days, if not a single day.  From there the scenario is as I've mentioned earlier in the thread.  The Russians pound the larger Ukrainian defensive positions to dust from the air or with superior artillery, then penetrate, and seize control of the rear and primary objectives. 

The Ukrainians need air support, intelligence support, and logistics support.  With that they can at least make it extremely painful for Russia.  Would that be enough?  I wonder if it is already too late.  If Pooter commits to a full invasion, then even NATO coming in at a later point may not end the war because of the idea of sunken costs.  Some people after listening to Pooter's speech last night are saying that he's unhinged, crazy.  I'm unsure.  I think a lot of people just can't understand bad men. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on February 22, 2022, 12:15:31 PM
After Crimea Ukraine should have gone full Israel. Everyone turning 18 serves 1-2 years in the military. Add a whole bunch of rifles and have them all in the reserves.
...
The Ukrainians need air support, intelligence support, and logistics support.  With that they can at least make it extremely painful for Russia.  Would that be enough?  I wonder if it is already too late.  If Pooter commits to a full invasion, then even NATO coming in at a later point may not end the war because of the idea of sunken costs.  Some people after listening to Pooter's speech last night are saying that he's unhinged, crazy.  I'm unsure.  I think a lot of people just can't understand bad men.

Your analysis is good. We should have been giving them advanced SAM capabilities in addition to anti tank weapons. But without an air defense it seems like bloody fighting in every city with a bunch of riflemen might have been the better option for Ukraine.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 22, 2022, 12:26:55 PM
How about a network of self-replicating cloaked mines to block out the Russian forces?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 12:40:17 PM
We should have been giving them advanced SAM capabilities in addition to anti tank weapons.

Maybe.  They asked for Patriots from the US and Iron Dome from Israel.  They were turned down.  I think part of the reason was not to antagonize Russia.  LOL.  It's possible that the Patriots were too expensive (can always give them for free) and there wasn't enough time to train them.  There is also a huge amount of red tape to get through for the United States to sell those kinds of weapons.

I also suspect that Patriots and Iron Dome have lots of TS capabilities that the US and Israel do not want getting out to Russia in case the weapons are captured.  Like anti-ballistic or anti-hypersonic intercept abilities.  But that's just a guess.  It may be that our air defense weapons are still more advanced than the Russians and no sense in giving them the software/hardware. It's a dilemma.  I would love for them to have either system right now. 

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/patriot-missiles-aren%E2%80%99t-answer-ukrainian-air-defense-197556

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43596/pentagon-team-has-returned-from-assessing-ukraines-air-defense-needs

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 12:41:04 PM
How about a network of self-replicating cloaked mines to block out the Russian forces?

Good idea, Rom. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 01:20:30 PM
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-military-operations-southeastern-ukraine-imminent

The link above is to an analysis made on how the Russians would run the ground campaign.  I saw another analysis on Twitter that said basically the same thing. 

The idea in the analyses is that Russia will conduct the ground campaign in a phased approach, unlike the "attack on all fronts", "maximum pressure for quickest campaign" that I had envisioned.  I had imagined the Russians attacking simultaneously on 2-3 axes of advance with the primary goal of taking Kiev, toppling the government, while destroying military command and control.  These guys say that the invasion will be phased.  It makes sense to me because of two reasons.  1) It's Putin's MO of "just the tip".  2) It's basically an oblique attack on a grand scale.  The Russians can concentrate their forces in the SMD while leaving just enough behind in Belarus and Belgorod to keep Ukrainian forces pinned there.  Then they systematically annihilate the Ukrainian Army a piece at a time before taking on another part. 

The more I think about it the more I think that's the way the Russians will go.  But it will take longer to hold and clear each section than it would be to simply roll over them.  But it's their best strategy. 

The air/missile campaign has to still be directed through the entire theatre though.  And the draw back to this strategy is that is really does give NATO more time to decide to step in while the Ukrainians are still fighting and there is still a government.  But the idea is that through each phase Putin will attempt to re-negotiate, keeping the EU and NATO tied up in diplomatic attempts instead of military assistance.  Pooter is betting that NATO will just not help, and he's probably right.  The only countries I see that might have the will to engage and the ability to force project would be Poland and the UK.  But they just don't have to juice to fight the Russians over Ukraine.  Only the United States does.  I don't think that Germany, Hungary, or Italy is going to back or approve of any NATO involvement because they are scared of getting the gas turned off. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 04:45:03 PM
President Joe made a great speech.  For a dude 79 years old.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPrq5GjnFcQ

Grandpa President, round two.  Speech! 

I mean, you gotta remember that the guy is 10 years older than Reagan when he was first elected.  And he was frickin OLD. 

Starting off a little better.  Not stumbling too much.  Reading teleprompter.

Stop rubbing your nose. 

Stuttering

Sanctions, good.  What sanctions? 

Go futher?  Man, just go all out now.  You can always pare it back.  Find out, right now, if you have any economic leverage on Pooter.  Stop reacting.

Jesus stop squinting, can he not see?  Change the font size on the teleprompter

Tripping

I don't trust the word "tranche" ever since The Big Short.

"Defensive assistance"?  What does that mean?  Other than Global Hawk and Joint Rivet missions? 

Don't tell people you have no intent to fight Russia.  There is nobody left to convince on the fence.  Everybody knows Russia is driving this. 

You want to send an unmistakable message?  By sending troops and planes to the Baltics?  But then say they're not there to fight Russians?  What are they there for?  To play poker?  Tourism?

This false differential between defending a NATO country and one right next door who is begging to be a NATO country but isn't, is the last barrier.  At least the United States cares about it's signature on a piece of paper.  That's what's important.  "You gotta sign, man, before I can help you".  "You gotta be part of the gang, bro.  You havn't been initiated yet."

Zelenskyy listening to this and getting a special pistol with only one bullet ready. 

I don't like "Kyiv".  It rhymes with "skeeve".  I like "Kiev" better.  Cause I like Chicken Kiev. 

Sounding smoother, more confident.  How can he be so good at debates but then have trouble on reading a teleprompter sometimes? 

Good to hear about global energy supply stabilization. 

Walks out without answering a single question.  Boss move. 

Score 7/10.  Still ok for a 79 year old. Room for improvement.   
 







Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 05:47:52 PM
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The reason why I say it is not trivial is because of what you mentioned about reloads.  If the fight is above Donesk or north of Kiev, the Russians have a much quicker turnaround.  You tangle over Donesk, the F-35s have to go back, what 300 miles to get back to Germany?  The Russians have to go back 60 miles to get back to their bases.  They have a quicker turnaround time.

Well, it's happening.  The F-35s from Spang are being sent to "several operating locations along NATO's eastern flank".  20 Apaches to Baltics and 12 Apaches to Poland. 

I dunno, man.  If I was a Russian I'd be nervous. 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-to-send-forces-to-back-natos-eastern-flank-amid-russia-aggression/2510665
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 22, 2022, 05:55:58 PM
Cardi B declares neutrality in Ukraine crisis

https://thehill.com/blogs/in-the-know/in-the-know/595294-cardi-b-says-shes-not-really-on-nato-or-russias-side-amid

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“I'm really not on NATO’s side. I'm really not [on] Russia’s side. I'm actually in the citizens’ side, because at the end of the day, the world is having a crisis right now.”

That's a relief.  We don't have to worry about Cardi B supporting the Russians now. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 22, 2022, 09:58:32 PM
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The reason why I say it is not trivial is because of what you mentioned about reloads.  If the fight is above Donesk or north of Kiev, the Russians have a much quicker turnaround.  You tangle over Donesk, the F-35s have to go back, what 300 miles to get back to Germany?  The Russians have to go back 60 miles to get back to their bases.  They have a quicker turnaround time.

Well, it's happening.  The F-35s from Spang are being sent to "several operating locations along NATO's eastern flank".  20 Apaches to Baltics and 12 Apaches to Poland. 

I dunno, man.  If I was a Russian I'd be nervous. 

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/us-to-send-forces-to-back-natos-eastern-flank-amid-russia-aggression/2510665

Alas, there are too many independent variables for us to judge your theory based on the outcome. :)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 02:15:56 PM
Another round of cyber attacks underway against Ukraine, targeting banks and government websites.  Still disappointed.  Wonder if we've been overestimating Russian cyber ability, or if Ukraine had hardened certain targets like utilities. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-news-war-putin-invasion-b2021232.html

Ukraine declares state of emergency and calls up the reserves.  Should have done that a month ago.  I sympathize with Zelenskyy trying to keep people calm, but sometimes it's time to freak out, and sometimes it helps to freak people out early. 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-conscripting-18-60-year-olds/31718145.html

Calling up the "reserves" is not exactly like calling up the reserves or the nasty guard here in the states.  It actually involves conscription.  But no "general mobilization" yet, which I take would be basically conscripting everybody of fighting age. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-calls-up-reservists-launches-programme-economic-patriotism-2022-02-22/

In shocking news, very surprising, the UK announces that RT is Russian propaganda.  I'm shocked, shocked.  Johnson says he is not getting involved and there is no strong pressure to censor, so I don't understand the point. 
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/uks-truss-says-media-watchdog-looking-russias-rt-tv-channel-2022-02-23/

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But the reaction last night seems to have been stronger than warranted.

After the premature ejaculatory outrage reaction on Monday night, yesterday was actually relatively calm, causing the overall conversation to eventually dissolve back into domestic political attacks.  We just can't give up the real war, ladies and gentlemen.  There are people that are heavily invested in the idea that Democrats or Republicans are much more dangerous to the United States than Pooter and Russia.  They might have some small points, but I cannot forget that these people are heavily invested in selling their product of outrage and scorn.  It's possible to be just as hooked on it as Germany is hooked on Russian gas.  I do know who is about to start a war, though, and who is primarily responsible for driving it, and it is not anybody here in the US.  You can talk about contributing culpability in the US and in Europe, but it doesn't really help anybody but partisans.  I'll admit some of it is fun, but the stuff is untimely.  It does help to point out who to cut off from your feed. 

Today the whole thing has become quiet.  A post fight calm.  More cyber attacks but no air campaign.  Still slow cooking this roast.  Is it taking longer for ground units to get into position than planned?  I would not be surprised.  Sticking to a planned schedule is difficult when you have millions of moving pieces and millions of ways fiction can be introduced.  Or is it part of the plan to slow cook? I don't know.  Even the domestic political recriminations have slowed down. 

Speaking of Germans and Russian gas, the German Economy Minister has said that Germany could do without Russian gas, proposing they could lower taxes to compensate for higher prices.  Sometimes this green/renewables energy crap doesn't work out, is all I'm saying.  No word on them deciding to bring back nuclear.  I've already stated my opinion that we should be helping the Germans in any way possible.  Cutting off the gas is the best sanction possible and the only one that I believe that could actually work.  Pooter doesn't care how much money you take away from the Oligarchs or if you take away their Monaco vacations.   

US has told Ukraine to expect an invasion in 48 hours from intel sources.  The Ukrainians don't appear impressed. 

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-warns-ukraine-full-scale-russian-invasion-within-48-hours-1681798?fbclid=IwAR2OkB6KeVZ9i_6gYlgeNiLSbpc2mO0kLKDZIa3Xq3StWgxGkl8iVI05rw0

Quote
A source close to Zelenskyy's government also confirmed to Newsweek that such a warning was received, but noted that this was the third time in a month Kyiv was told to prepare for imminent large-scale military action order by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Quote
"It's possible for sure," the source said. "Putin can't keep so many troops in the field much longer."

I still don't understand this crap about how the Russians can only stay in the field for so much longer.  The whole point of an army is to stay in the field indefinitely until the fight is over. 

As the world gets hooked on a new form of information high, and every moron idiot journalist in the United States heads over to the Pentagon and Ukraine to pick up some more drugs, I feel that the quality of reporting about Ukraine is going to suffer.  This is something to keep in mind. The warning seems to indicate danger for Kyiv and Kharkiv, which would be against the phased ground attack approach mentioned yesterday.  So there is a bunch of mixed signals.  Not terribly impressed with Newsweek.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-lithuania-say-ukraine-deserves-eu-candidate-status-due-current-security-2022-02-23/

Consistently impressed with Reuters.  Lithuania and Poland support giving Ukraine NATO candidate status.  Probably a bit late for that.  It's also notable that Lithuania and Poland probably wouldn't be the ones sending forces to fight for Ukraine.  I suppose it makes sense that when your house is on fire your closest neighbors are going to be the first to come help.  NATO/US air support is the only way I see this turning out where Ukraine isn't lost.  But it introduces a whole bunch of problems. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on February 23, 2022, 02:32:13 PM
...
Consistently impressed with Reuters.  Lithuania and Poland support giving Ukraine NATO candidate status.  Probably a bit late for that.  It's also notable that Lithuania and Poland probably wouldn't be the ones sending forces to fight for Ukraine.  I suppose it makes sense that when your house is on fire your closest neighbors are going to be the first to come help.  NATO/US air support is the only way I see this turning out where Ukraine isn't lost.  But it introduces a whole bunch of problems.

Hot war with Russia does create a bunch of problems. Even if we are just enforcing a "no fly zone" or whatever we want to call what would likely be the biggest air battles since Vietnam. Without our air defense systems and bases on the ground we wouldn't have the advantages a defensive battle usually would have.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on February 23, 2022, 02:43:26 PM
Hopefully Taiwan can learn from Ukraine's mistakes. Get as much military hardware and security guarantees as possible and declare independence. Slow playing with an aggressive giant next door is going to end when the giant senses an opportunity. It may be time to bite the bullet on this one and suffer the economic warfare that would ensue.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 02:50:31 PM

Hot war with Russia does create a bunch of problems. Even if we are just enforcing a "no fly zone" or whatever we want to call what would likely be the biggest air battles since Vietnam. Without our air defense systems and bases on the ground we wouldn't have the advantages a defensive battle usually would have.

That's only half the problems.  The other problem is that Russia can stage their S-300s and S-400s inside Russia and Belarus and their coverage will still extend quite far into Ukraine.  Does NATO agree to strike targets in Russia or Belarus in self defense? For the purpose of actually winning?  This risks widening the war.  But this disadvantage would be the most serious. 

While Russia would have the advantage of closer bases, it doesn't translate to attrition of NATO fighters.  It simply translates to their ability to hit targets in Ukraine while NATO aircraft are rearming and refueling back in Poland, Romania, Italy, or Germany.  It means that the Russians would still have air superiority over Ukraine for a long time until NATO air power could whittle away at the Russian aircraft. 

NATO has a bunch of aircraft, though.  It can match the Russians in the air and maybe even outnumber them if you throw in squadrons from the UK, France, and Germany.  Of course none of this is set up to happen, though.  You can't set up a multinational air force and air strategy overnight.  It took months before Desert Storm.  The counter argument is that NATO already has a military command structure in place and hopefully they're making plans now, even if they are never used. The logistics are not in place and as far as I know, there may not even be enough room in Poland or Romania to base all these planes.   

But my read is that NATO can and would defeat the Russians in an air war over Ukraine.  It might not even take that long as I'm imagining.  But to effectively "win", and control the airspace, you have to hit targets in Russia and Belarus. 

Here is a good analysis made after a simulation where NATO won. 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIrGNeX1ch0

I didn't watch the entire simulation, which I think runs longer than 10 hours.  But I do know that the simulator is quite comprehensive and is used professionally.  The in-game simulation only ran 36 hours!  Hard to believe it could be over so quickly. 

Anyways.  I don't know it all, but my read on what the Russians have in place, that NATO can win, it just would be difficult in certain circumstances. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 03:08:15 PM
Hopefully Taiwan can learn from Ukraine's mistakes. Get as much military hardware and security guarantees as possible and declare independence. Slow playing with an aggressive giant next door is going to end when the giant senses an opportunity. It may be time to bite the bullet on this one and suffer the economic warfare that would ensue.

I don't think that Taiwan is being lazy here.  I think they're constantly trying to arm up as much as possible, but in the end it is impossible for them to keep up with China.  It would be like asking Cuba to stand against a serious invasion by the United States.  They just don't have the money or the space.  I think they're doing an ok job of it but they need more ABM defenses, and their present defenses need to take a page from the North Koreans and basically be capable of being bunkered during bombardment.

Getting overt security guarantees probably won't happen.  Getting under the table security guarantees have either already happened or won't happen. 

But I think the key is to fight the battle in front of you, not the one you might have tomorrow.  I personally feel the best way to defend Taiwan against China is to show that the US and UK are willing to fight.  The greatest danger recently has been from the perceived failures of the US in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria, and the growth of isolationist sympathies through the last 6 years.  Fighting Russia now, the less dangerous enemy (depends), and winning, defends Taiwan later from a more dangerous enemy. 

I don't think that is a reason to get into any fight for any reason to show resolve and ability to China.  That's crazy.  But if also stopping Russia is important to the United States, here is an opportunity to kill two birds with one stone and reverse the erosion of American power since 2009 (or 2003 if you are inclined) and reestablish some of that stability that was seen in the 1990s. 

But you're going to have to get beyond the "F Ukraine", "F Taiwan", and "they are not allies/we don't have a treaty/we have no obligations" crowd. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 23, 2022, 04:42:46 PM
Quote
But you're going to have to get beyond the "F Ukraine", "F Taiwan", and "they are not allies/we don't have a treaty/we have no obligations" crowd.

Good luck getting by me and the hordes like me, which is a very strange set of bedfellows that include America Firsters and Communists.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 06:39:05 PM
Bunch of NOTAMS just popped up covering the airspace between Ukraine and Russia.  I can't read the FAA copy.  I'm not a pilot.  Don't know who issued it.  Reason seems to be to protect civilian flights. 

https://www.notams.faa.gov/dinsQueryWeb/queryRetrievalMapAction.do?reportType=Raw&retrieveLocId=urrv&actionType=notamRetrievalbyICAOs

Earlier NOTAMS closed airports in Kharkiv and Dnipro. 

https://www.avianews.com/ukraine/2022/02/23/airport_kharkiv_temporary_closed_23february/
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 10:18:25 PM
This is it, sportsfans. 

About two hours ago they started shutting down all the airspace in Ukraine.  Planes that had just taken off were directed to return and land.  Planes coming into Ukraine were diverted out.  No NOTAMS.  All ATC driven. 

Reports of multiple explosions in Kharkiv. 

Russian Strategic Bomber HF channel very busy.  8131 KHz USB.  Probable launch of Air to Surface cruise missile attack. 

Putin declares war.  "A couple of words for those would be tempted to intervene.  Russia will respond immediately and you will have consequences that you never have had before in your history."



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 10:24:43 PM
Sounds like they're going after the airfields. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 10:32:31 PM
Forgot to mention, google maps showed traffic jam on the road from Belgorod to the Ukrainian border.  Lol.  What a world. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 10:53:53 PM
Marco Rubio of all people is apparently spilling all the intel on Twitter.

Says the main axes of attack are on Kyiv and south from Crimea to take the bridges on the Dnieper and cut off Ukrainian forces to the east.  So much for the phased ground attack if that is the case.

Says Russia making an airborne attack on the Kiev airport so they can fly follow on forces straight into the capitol.  Bold move, Cotton. 

No clue any of this is true.  Nothing else to confirm an airborne attack on Kiev Airport. 

Says the aircraft are now enroute to conduct a second wave of attacks following missile strikes.  That makes sense and is more than probably true. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 11:02:12 PM
Massive amounts of MLRS artillery strikes on Ukrainian positions.  The softening up as begun. 

Reports of two planes full of Turkish paratroops landing in Kyiv airport right before the airport is shut down and attacks begin. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 11:08:53 PM
American surveillance aircraft, including global hawk drone, hauled balls out of the area just before the missile strikes begun. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 23, 2022, 11:21:19 PM
Reports of Russian troops landing in Odessa and Mariupol.  Not confirmed. 

If true this isn't a game of "just the tip".  This is the full court press.  Beyond 2-3 axes of advance.  This is everything being hit at once.  This is a quick decapitation move.  Trying to end the war ASAP. 

If Russians have taken and can hold Kyiv Airport....
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: edgmatt on February 23, 2022, 11:30:14 PM
Doesn't Russia just lose this?  With Nato, Euope, Japan, and the U.S. all on board to "stop" him?

Or is Russia really that strong?  I'm woefully ignorant on this subject.  I can't figure out why Putin would do this, knowing he's not going to win and pay severly for it.

What am I not seeing or not understanding?

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: edgmatt on February 23, 2022, 11:37:02 PM
Like is this some massive, deep plot between Russia and China?  Russia starts a war with Ukraine, gets Europe and US involved, then China and North Korea throw their weight into it, Russia comes out on top, but China betrays them and take over the world.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 24, 2022, 07:11:28 AM
Like is this some massive, deep plot between Russia and China?  Russia starts a war with Ukraine, gets Europe and US involved, then China and North Korea throw their weight into it, Russia comes out on top, but China betrays them and take over the world.

More likely the reverse. China "follows up" in response to Russian successes in Ukraine by going after Taiwan. US intervenes to protect US (great circle) Trade Routes between the US and Singapore(Strait of Malacca) and trade routes with other nations bordering the SCS. As well as for the purpose of bolstering relations with Allies in the East Asia region (again, gotta protect those trade routes) so they don't switch sides and align with China.

US in an all-out war with China, one where Japan has also outright said they would help defend Taiwan, even if the Americans don't... And Russia gets a unique opportunity there.

Guess who has S500 batteries stationed along the potential flight path of many ballistic missiles launched from China and heading for Japan? Russia does.

Russia simply declaring itself to be "neutral" in that conflict, but closing its airspace for all involved sides then give Putin cover for using the S500 system to shoot down Chinese Missiles headed for Japan that overfly Russia.

China would obviously be pissed at Putin doing that, but declaring war on Russia over it would be very stupid on China's part all the same.

But in the meantime, the people of Japan would be left in a very interesting position where it concerns Russia at that point.

If China did declare war on Russia over it, well. Some of the history from WW2 comes to mind. Putin loves his soviet history. People need to remember what was going on with Poland at the start of the war. Russia and Germany both invaded Poland. Then the Germans declared war on Russia. Russia joined the Allies(most of whom had defense treaties with Poland prior to 1939), and at the end of the war, who had control of Poland? The Soviet Union.

If China goes after Taiwan, Putin is betting that the world(Well, the US, UK, and Japan at a minimum) will let him keep Ukraine.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Crunch on February 24, 2022, 07:56:27 AM
Thank god Putin is too scared of Biden to do anything and Heels Up Harris was sent to defuse this. If not for them, Putin would …. wait.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 07:59:49 AM
Doesn't Russia just lose this?  With Nato, Euope, Japan, and the U.S. all on board to "stop" him?

Or is Russia really that strong?  I'm woefully ignorant on this subject.  I can't figure out why Putin would do this, knowing he's not going to win and pay severly for it.

What am I not seeing or not understanding?

Yes, Russia would lose against NATO.  Pooter is betting that NATO will not become involve militarily and he's most likely right.  He's also betting that he's going to be able to convince the EU to keep paying him for his gas after fait accomplit. 

No, Russia is not really that strong.  But Pooter is daring to say the least.  Wheras NATO doesn't seem to want to go to war with Russia. 

Quote
Like is this some massive, deep plot between Russia and China?  Russia starts a war with Ukraine, gets Europe and US involved, then China and North Korea throw their weight into it, Russia comes out on top, but China betrays them and take over the world.

No.  This definitely isn't China's idea.  The timing isn't right for China.  Unless they are convinced that the United States will not become involved. 

It does help China if the US becomes involved in Ukraine, but not to an important degree.  The major US element that would prevent Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be the US Navy.  The USAF would have a secondary role.  You don't need the Navy to fight Russia in Ukraine unless the war widens to the Atlantic, and even then, the way we have the forces balanced right now in the Atlantic and the Pacific is satisfactory, IMO, to prevent Russia from closing off the Atlantic. 

The possibility of Russia "losing this" over the long run economically and diplomatically is very strong, though.  Unless Europe just keeps buying his gas. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 08:02:28 AM
Doesn't Russia just lose this?  With Nato, Euope, Japan, and the U.S. all on board to "stop" him?

Or is Russia really that strong?  I'm woefully ignorant on this subject.  I can't figure out why Putin would do this, knowing he's not going to win and pay severly for it.

What am I not seeing or not understanding?

Yes, Russia would lose against NATO.  Pooter is betting that NATO will not become involve militarily and he's most likely right.
He's also betting that he's going to be able to convince the EU to keep paying him for his gas after fait accomplit. 

No, Russia is not really that strong.  But Pooter is daring to say the least.  Wheras NATO doesn't seem to want to go to war with Russia. 

Quote
Like is this some massive, deep plot between Russia and China?  Russia starts a war with Ukraine, gets Europe and US involved, then China and North Korea throw their weight into it, Russia comes out on top, but China betrays them and take over the world.

No.  This definitely isn't China's idea.  The timing isn't right for China.  Unless they are convinced that the United States will not become involved. 

It does help China if the US becomes involved in Ukraine, but not to an important degree.  The major US element that would prevent Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be the US Navy.  The USAF would have a secondary role.  You don't need the Navy to fight Russia in Ukraine unless the war widens to the Atlantic, and even then, the way we have the forces balanced right now in the Atlantic and the Pacific is satisfactory, IMO, to prevent Russia from closing off the Atlantic. 

The possibility of Russia "losing this" over the long run economically and diplomatically is very strong, though.  Unless Europe just keeps buying his gas.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 08:05:47 AM
Thank god Putin is too scared of Biden to do anything and Heels Up Harris was sent to defuse this. If not for them, Putin would …. wait.

Thank you, Crunch.  I had made a $1000 bet that you would be the first one to make it domestically partisan.  I will be donating it to the DNC. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 24, 2022, 08:12:00 AM
I don't appreciate the media like Drudge trying to make it look like Trump is in favor of what Putin is doing in Ukraine.

Headline: "TRUMP: LET'S GO, PUTIN!"

Then you read the article and of course Trump never says that or anything like it and instead it's about Trump saying that Putin is walking all over Biden. I wouldn't put it in the terms that Trump is using, but Trump does get around to indicating that he does not support what Putin is doing in Ukraine by bloviating, and yeah I'll call it that even if I'm a Trumper, that Putin would not be doing this under a Trump Presidency. And there is a great element of truth to that since Putin did not do this while Trump was President. He took Crimea under Obama's nose and now he's cutting off piece after piece of Ukraine under Biden.

The sanctions against the two "breakaway republics" Biden called for were pathetic. There need to be massive sanctions against Russia itself. I like the way Germany is talking about getting off of Russian energy. While anyone who buys Russian energy should be punished, anyone like Germany who shuns it at their own discomfort should be rewarded and supported. The Russian pipeline Biden supports over there needs to be cancelled and the XL pipeline restored. Major assets should start getting frozen and not just for a few of the top oligarchs but for the entire country itself. Banking privileges revoked. Diplomats ejected.

I'm not so much in favor of direct military action but with Putin threatening a literal nuclear option, we can't blink and need to engage the economic nuclear option immediately. Massive sanctions against Russia and smaller more directed sanctions against anyone buying their energy. With these war crimes and crimes against humanity I'm not even sure it's enough to just call for withdrawal anymore. The price for the lessening of sanctions probably needs to be that Putin is no longer in charge of Russia as he is prosecuted in absentia internationally for his crimes.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 08:38:11 AM
NATO convenes emergency virtual summit.  Plans activated to send more planes and troops to Eastern Europe.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-step-up-deterrence-measures-after-russian-attack-calls-summit-2022-02-24/

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 09:31:53 AM
Important to note:  Russia didn't go for a 2 to 7 day air campaign to soften up the Ukrainians.  They're going full bore from the jump.  Resistance doesn't seem to be terribly strong despite the only brief air/missile/artillery campaign.  Russian troops moving forward on all fronts. But there is resistance.  Video evidence of Russian armor being hit on roads to Kiev and Kharkiv.  Not sure if the Russians have achieved any major objectives yet except taking the bridge at Nova Khakova.  Which really isn't a major objective but it is a first day one. 

Pooter wants to take all of Ukraine and install a puppet government before NATO can rally and before public sentiment in Europe/US turns towards intervention.  Glad there has not been a lot of video and geolocation on Ukrainian forces online. Though I could be following the wrong people for that, lol.  Not sure if the Ukrainians decided to hold their defensive positions or move back to the cities for a defense. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 24, 2022, 09:46:00 AM
Doesn't Russia just lose this?  With Nato, Euope, Japan, and the U.S. all on board to "stop" him?

Or is Russia really that strong?  I'm woefully ignorant on this subject.  I can't figure out why Putin would do this, knowing he's not going to win and pay severly for it.

What am I not seeing or not understanding?

Yes, Russia would lose against NATO.  Pooter is betting that NATO will not become involve militarily and he's most likely right.  He's also betting that he's going to be able to convince the EU to keep paying him for his gas after fait accomplit. 

No, Russia is not really that strong.  But Pooter is daring to say the least.  Wheras NATO doesn't seem to want to go to war with Russia.

I think the answer has always been nukes. It's a game of nuke chicken. If you go to war against me I will use nukes, and the world dies. You want to play chicken to see if he really is a maniac, or is just playing prisoner dilemma with you to psyche you out?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 10:41:20 AM
I think the answer has always been nukes. It's a game of nuke chicken. If you go to war against me I will use nukes, and the world dies. You want to play chicken to see if he really is a maniac, or is just playing prisoner dilemma with you to psyche you out?

I'm not terribly impressed with Russian nuclear threats.  Pooter has shown himself to be a shrewd gambler, not a madman, and NATO/US is not interested in invading Russia ala Barbarossa or Napoleon. 

No one has used nuclear weapons for 77 years, which is probably one of the best testaments to the human race you can give.  I don't consider it a game of chicken, I consider it similar to trading hostages, but on a mass scale.  You don't use your nukes, I won't use my nukes.  Use your nukes, I'll use my nukes. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: edgmatt on February 24, 2022, 10:46:20 AM
Map (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682)

I found the maps here very illuminating as far as helping me understand what's happening more clearly.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 24, 2022, 10:50:42 AM
Vlad is already hinting that if somebody starts shooting his planes down, he'll nuke them till they glow. He ordered nuclear drills, they are laying groundwork for putting nukes in Belarus, etc. But sure, we should totally have the F35s engage to contain Russia. I don't think his threat is idle at all, and I think his trigger point - whatever it is - is not limited to retaliating against a nuclear first strike. Drop a couple of conventional bombs on Moscow, and I think you can expect ICBMs. Much as you might with Washington. Other cities? In other countries? Hard to say. Pakistan and India were at risk of going nuclear over Kashmir for Pete's sake.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 24, 2022, 11:09:11 AM
I don't consider it a game of chicken, I consider it similar to trading hostages, but on a mass scale.  You don't use your nukes, I won't use my nukes.  Use your nukes, I'll use my nukes.

No, that's not a good enough explanation. Any "treaty" about non-use of nuclear weapons isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Whether it's said out loud or not the fact that nukes exist is always on the table in terms of mutual threat. It doesn't need to be said in a formal press release for it to be pretty obvious that, for instance, if the U.S. ever existentially threatened China, let's say, nukes would be employed whether or not the U.S. was employing nukes themselves. It's the ultimate escalation if a situation becomes unacceptable enough. I doubt it is true of any nation, the U.S. included, that they would only employ nukes if someone else did so first. Being a nuclear power automatically means, and has always meant, that you cannot directly attack them anymore or else the nuke card comes down on the table. No one so far has been willing to call that bluff, or to see if it is one.

As I see it, the way things stand any nuclear power like Russia or China *could* just start attacking non-nuclear neighbors and dare anyone to try to stop them. Until such a time as a major power is willing to go to direct war against a nuclear power, in theory there would be no answer to such attacks other than sanctions. For a country with a lot to economically lose there is an incentive not to cut themselves off from the rest of the world. The more troubled a nation's economy is the less they will have to lose. I've been saying for a long time that the best way to prevent war is to deliberately enrich nations, tying them to you and giving them too much to lose.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 11:18:19 AM
Vlad is already hinting that if somebody starts shooting his planes down, he'll nuke them till they glow.

Because he knows he can lose that way. 

Quote
He ordered nuclear drills, they are laying groundwork for putting nukes in Belarus, etc.

They do nuclear drills every year.  So do we.  Yes he coincided it this year as a threat.  It appears to be working on some people.

Quote
Drop a couple of conventional bombs on Moscow, and I think you can expect ICBMs.

Nobody has really suggested striking Moscow.  But sure, it makes perfect sense.  We'll start a nuclear war that will end with my own death and the death of my entire country because a bomb dropped on Moscow or Washington.  That makes perfect sense. 

Or maybe that's just somebody who is scared talking.  Or just a tankie or Lindbergh.   

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 11:26:20 AM
Being a nuclear power automatically means, and has always meant, that you cannot directly attack them anymore or else the nuke card comes down on the table. No one so far has been willing to call that bluff, or to see if it is one.

I take it that we could never have defended West Germany then either.  This is bull*censored*. 

This was the last refuge of the libs when public sentiment turned against them when it came to NATO or Korea or Southeast Asia.  You can't *censored* with Russia.  They'll start a nuclear war.  Back then it was mainly liberals, but they were always tankies and fascists.  Now they just vote differently. 

It may not please very many modern liberals, but I feel the need to summon the ghost of Ronald Reagan, the great enemy of the tankies and isolationists. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 24, 2022, 11:30:04 AM
Countries do a lot of things that don't make sense. Particularly ones run by dictators. It didn't make sense for Saddam to fight off inspections resulting in his country being demolished and his own death also. We had plenty of people clamoring for us to nuke Afghanistan, and the attack wasn't even successful on Washington, despite the strike in New York. Plus nobody drops one bomb, to clarify I should have said launches an aerial attack.

The whole point of nuclear weapons is to be scared by them. It is called a deterrent. Now I don't know if Putin would use nukes or not if strikes were limited to military targets in border areas, or Belarus. I'm not really willing to call and see the cards for the sake of Ukrainian freedom. You might well ask, at what point would I be willing to test it - and I would generally say an attack on a country with a mutual defense agreement. You will note that we have that with neither Ukraine nor Taiwan (which we won't even admit is a country).
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 24, 2022, 11:32:08 AM
Let's also note that current US nuclear doctrine does not rule out a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Let alone a gentleman's agreement to not use nukes until we get nuked.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 11:44:31 AM
You might well ask, at what point would I be willing to test it - and I would generally say an attack on a country with a mutual defense agreement.

I don't believe that.  I would like to ask what the fundamental difference between having a piece of paper signed and not having a signed piece of paper is?  What is the fundamental difference between Lithuania and Ukraine?  Between Turkey and Ukraine?  Just a piece of paper?  What is the purpose of NATO?  Why make mutual defense treaties at all?  What is the underlying purpose?  Just to protect trade? 

I'm reminded of times when people and nations have done the right thing regardless of having a signed piece of paper in front of them.  I believe that people who would not do the right thing without a piece of paper are simply making excuses and would find other excuses even if the piece of paper existed. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 11:51:39 AM
1964

Quote
We cannot buy our security, our freedom from the threat of the bomb by committing an immorality so great as saying to a billion human beings now enslaved behind the Iron Curtain, "Give up your dreams of freedom because to save our own skins, we're willing to make a deal with your slave masters." Alexander Hamilton said, "A nation which can prefer disgrace to danger is prepared for a master, and deserves one." Now let's set the record straight. There's no argument over the choice between peace and war, but there's only one guaranteed way you can have peace -- and you can have it in the next second -- surrender.

Admittedly, there's a risk in any course we follow other than this, but every lesson of history tells us that the greater risk lies in appeasement, and this is the specter our well-meaning liberal friends refuse to face -- that their policy of accommodation is appeasement, and it gives no choice between peace and war, only between fight or surrender. If we continue to accommodate, continue to back and retreat, eventually we have to face the final demand -- the ultimatum. And what then -- when Nikita Khrushchev has told his people he knows what our answer will be? He has told them that we're retreating under the pressure of the Cold War, and someday when the time comes to deliver the final ultimatum, our surrender will be voluntary, because by that time we will have been weakened from within spiritually, morally, and economically. He believes this because from our side he's heard voices pleading for "peace at any price" or "better Red than dead," or as one commentator put it, he'd rather "live on his knees than die on his feet." And therein lies the road to war, because those voices don't speak for the rest of us.

You and I know and do not believe that life is so dear and peace so sweet as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery. If nothing in life is worth dying for, when did this begin -- just in the face of this enemy? Or should Moses have told the children of Israel to live in slavery under the pharaohs? Should Christ have refused the cross? Should the patriots at Concord Bridge have thrown down their guns and refused to fire the shot heard 'round the world? The martyrs of history were not fools, and our honored dead who gave their lives to stop the advance of the Nazis didn't die in vain. Where, then, is the road to peace? Well it's a simple answer after all.

You and I have the courage to say to our enemies, "There is a price we will not pay." "There is a point beyond which they must not advance." And this -- this is the meaning in the phrase of Barry Goldwater's "peace through strength." Winston Churchill said, "The destiny of man is not measured by material computations. When great forces are on the move in the world, we learn we're spirits -- not animals." And he said, "There's something going on in time and space, and beyond time and space, which, whether we like it or not, spells duty."

You and I have a rendezvous with destiny.

We'll preserve for our children this, the last best hope of man on earth, or we'll sentence them to take the last step into a thousand years of darkness.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 01:02:54 PM
I found the maps here very illuminating as far as helping me understand what's happening more clearly.

This is a link to the best map that I've found.  It's not exactly a map of where the Russians are at right now, but more of a map of what their plan appears to be. 

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1496876298051989504/photo/1

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 24, 2022, 01:11:01 PM
None of what happing makes sense to me I don't see a win scenario here for anyone except maybe China...and maybe for hopping that Putin's "success" damages Biden (that doesn't make sense to me either but I suspect they will take that as a win)

I don't understand the world - we never learn
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 24, 2022, 01:12:03 PM
It may not please very many modern liberals, but I feel the need to summon the ghost of Ronald Reagan, the great enemy of the tankies and isolationists.

This isn't a philosophy seminar where the correct way of thinking will win audience points. I'm personally not convinced that Reagan knew anything about anything on any topic, but let's put that side. Taking action (a) (for instance militarily going to war with a nuclear power) will have a certain set of results, maybe varying on how intense the combat is or who is the aggressor. Attacking Russian forces in the Ukraine might have a different result than sending forces deep into Russian territory to take Moscow. But either way, there will be a result, and the manner in which you politically posture from the podium isn't going to change that. Maybe a skilled negotiator could talk down a Putin and decide on a mutually agreed upon solution. But in terms of Reagan-like bluster vs 'don't do it' "liberal" thinking, it won't affect the calculus going on at the other end. They either *are* or *are not* already willing to use nukes if opposed military. Pushing the button faster will get you your answer faster, but it won't change the answer. What might change it is if you're ok with nuclear war, threatening to do it better and/or do it first. So in the Armageddon game perhaps the craziest a**hole might win the game of chicken (or lose, depending on how you define winning for the human race). It is the very question of whether playing the Armageddon game is tolerable that I'm discussing. If you're willing to play it then it's a whole other discussion. My point is no one's been willing to play it yet.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 02:01:11 PM
This isn't a philosophy seminar where the correct way of thinking will win audience points. I'm personally not convinced that Reagan knew anything about anything on any topic, but let's put that side.

Yes,  I am aware of your feelings on Reagan.  But some people might have different feelings.  I wouldn't expect a Neo-Taftian/Ron Paul fan who believes that Chase Manhattan bank is behind all American interventionism or behind all Republican Presidential nominations to have different feelings.  I would only point out that Reagan and Eisenhower seem to have a better record than Robert Taft and Ron Paul when it comes to foreign policy success. 

Quote
Attacking Russian forces in the Ukraine might have a different result than sending forces deep into Russian territory to take Moscow. But either way, there will be a result, and the manner in which you politically posture from the podium isn't going to change that.

None of this addresses the following two points:
1. Using nuclear weapons is a no win scenario.  No nuclear power has used nuclear weapons since 1945.  Using nuclear weapons against another nuclear power in response to conventional attack is a suicide pill. 

2.  The argument that appeasement of dictators out of fear amounts to cowardice, disgrace, and is immoral. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 02:11:27 PM
Germany, Hungary, Italy, and Cyprus against disconnecting Russia from SWIFT. 

https://www.ft.com/content/69f72de5-d727-496d-9f9d-316db7bdaf03

Chernobyl taken by Russian forces.  Russian ground forces advancing along the western bank of the Dnieper now one fifth to one sixth the way to Kyiv.  Not that fast. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 24, 2022, 02:22:33 PM
Yes,  I am aware of your feelings on Reagan.

I don't think I've ever mentioned him except in context of his battle with the Federal Reserve in the early 80's.

Quote
But some people might have different feelings.  I wouldn't expect a Neo-Taftian/Ron Paul fan who believes that Chase Manhattan bank is behind all American interventionism or behind all Republican Presidential nominations to have different feelings.  I would only point out that Reagan and Eisenhower seem to have a better record than Robert Taft and Ron Paul when it comes to foreign policy success.

I don't really think you know what I "am" based on critiques I've made about corruption. And btw that corruption is often right on-point with Eisenhower's own warning about the military industrial complex. So don't invoke him so fast if you're trying to refute me! He knew how to go to war, and also knew how dangerous it would be to have powerful military interests pulling strings in Washington. Trying to remove corrupting influences is really totally unrelated to how prepared a people are to go to war. Americans are comparatively so willing to go to war that your concerns (about so-called liberals like me) are most likely ill-placed.

Quote
None of this addresses the following two points:
1. Using nuclear weapons is a no win scenario.  No nuclear power has used nuclear weapons since 1945.  Using nuclear weapons against another nuclear power in response to conventional attack is a suicide pill.

You seem to be suggesting that there never has been a moratorium on conventional war between nuclear powers, since they'd all play nice if they did go to war. But I don't think the 20th century tells that story. I think the story it tells is that once a country has nukes everyone walks on eggshells in anything approaching conflict with them. So your suggestion that we may as well pretend there are no nukes since obviously using them is 'no-win' is as far as I'm concerned a really illogical and probably highly dangerous mindset. One should act as if Russia absolutely is willing to use them, and based on that premise to decide how far to go (even if it's not in fact true).

Quote
2.  The argument that appeasement of dictators out of fear amounts to cowardice, disgrace, and is immoral.

It's not immoral if it's a strategic decision. Your premise that 'appeasement' can only be based in fear is not accurate. It could also be immoral if it's because you are kicking the can, or want to win brownie points with voters at the expense of the world. But either way "appeasement" only means making a decision that the dictator is satisfied with. That can be good, or bad. Chamberlain is maligned not because he was an appeaser, but because he was wrong. Big difference there.

When it comes down to it, if you want to adopt a zero tolerance policy where if someone commits acts of war you go full-on in with military force under the assumption that they won't dare use nukes, then that is an approach. I call it playing chicken because in this case you call the silent bluff about attacking a nuclear power. My point is that there is a non-zero chance you are woefully mistaken about how they'll respond. To say nothing of non-nuclear options like biological.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 24, 2022, 02:30:28 PM
At some point you do have to risk nuclear war or you will engage in appeasement.

Theoretically, even sanctions could risk Russia going nuclear if the sanctions are as tough as they should be.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 24, 2022, 02:48:08 PM
At some point you do have to risk nuclear war or you will engage in appeasement.

Well that's my point, basically. It's just not clear-cut to me how appeasement is 'tolerable' before you switch gears and say it's enough, we'll risk nuclear. Don't forget, Russia gaining ground, killing people, making some misery, could last 20 years, 50 years, 100 years. But how much could be lost if nuclear comes into it? It's not just a short-term strategic consideration but a long-term one. How much pain will we accept to avoid nuclear? The calculation on that does not seem simple to me. Even allowing yourself to be literally conquered and become a slave nation for 200 years might in the abstract be preferable to wiping out half the planet and having a nuclear winter. To me, "we are tough guys, we don't give up" is not a valid argument. Posturing and being tough like Reagan is not strategy, it's emotion.
Title: !
Post by: TheDrake on February 24, 2022, 03:04:22 PM
China invaded Tibet. Was it wrong to appease them? They continue to mess with India along their shared border. But it also didn't encourage them to invade Japan, though they did swallow half of Korea. And continuously threaten Taiwan. And herd Muslims into camps. But sure, since we don't have to worry about a nuclear deterrent, let's start a war with them. I mean they wouldn't be stupid enough to annihilate both our countries and by proxy the whole world, just because we liberated an economically worthless chunk of land like Tibet, right? They wouldn't immediately see that they couldn't match the US conventionally, so I guess they'd probably just surrender and Tibet would be free!

* I realize that they were non-nuclear at the time of Tibet.
Title: Re: !
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 03:40:47 PM
China invaded Tibet. Was it wrong to appease them?

What else could have been done about Tibet? 

To me, appeasement doesn't mean not doing anything.  It means not doing anything when you actually CAN do something but you still don't do it because of fear, intimidation, or an unrealistic view of the ability of diplomacy.  I don't think Hungary or Czechoslovakia was appeasement.  I think those were different situations where there really was nothing that the United States could do that could have easily led to defeat of the USSR or Warsaw Pact. 

I think the situation in Ukraine is different, but I have to admit that it is not easy.  I've already spoken that putting NATO/US air power over Ukraine without allowing strikes on Russian ADA inside Belarus and Russia would make things very difficult rather than easy.  Hitting targets inside Russia is exactly the kind of thing that I acknowledge might escalate things further, which would also make things very difficult rather than easy.  But I do not believe that Pooter is crazy enough to use nuclear weapons.  If I thought he might, I would instead target him personally. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 03:48:22 PM
Reports that the Ukrainians were able to take back an Antonov International Airport 10km outside of Kyiv that had been seized by Russian air assault earlier. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: kidv on February 24, 2022, 04:30:57 PM
Reports that the Ukrainians were able to take back an Antonov International Airport 10km outside of Kyiv that had been seized by Russian air assault earlier.

That would be great news.  It seems tactically that the Ukrainian military near Kyiv should have a fair shot at engaging and defeating a group of Russian paratroopers (with helicopter support) at the airport because it should be one area at the moment that Ukraine should have a location and materiel advantage.  So it's good that they could win in that circumstance.  (And probably very bad news if Ukraine could not retake the airport under those circumstances).
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 24, 2022, 05:40:01 PM
I can't find any references to Ukrainian forces retaking the airport, except this which was retracted:

Quote
⚡️Ukraine's armed forces report they reclaimed the Hostomel airport near Kyiv.

CORRECTION: The report was by Oleksiy Arestovych, an advisor to the president, not by the armed forces.

He has deleted his initial report and said that the fighting is continuing in Hostomel.
Title: Re: !
Post by: TheDeamon on February 24, 2022, 05:48:02 PM
China invaded Tibet. Was it wrong to appease them? They continue to mess with India along their shared border. But it also didn't encourage them to invade Japan, though they did swallow half of Korea. And continuously threaten Taiwan. And herd Muslims into camps. But sure, since we don't have to worry about a nuclear deterrent, let's start a war with them. I mean they wouldn't be stupid enough to annihilate both our countries and by proxy the whole world, just because we liberated an economically worthless chunk of land like Tibet, right? They wouldn't immediately see that they couldn't match the US conventionally, so I guess they'd probably just surrender and Tibet would be free!

Tibet likely happened "With the USSR's blessing" and nobody else really had a means of getting TO Tibet to do anything about it beside posturing.

The Chinese intervention in the Korean War was done on orders from the Kremlin, we know that for a fact. Now the Kremlin may have been mindful of "don't give an order you know will not be obeyed" and that China might intervene on its own in any case, so in alternate reality, it's possible Mao Zedong sends troops into Korea without orders from Moscow to do so. However, that isn't the world we live in. We don't know what they would have done, or when, without those orders to get involved.

The "continuous threats" to Taiwan are a comparatively new thing in the 21st century. During the 1950's and into the 1970's, the United States was spending most of its time trying to get the ROC to stop carrying out military/insurgency operations inside the Chinese Mainland. Now the shoe is on the other proverbial foot. China did try to invade (parts of) Taiwan in the 1950's and failed every time without Taiwan needing outside help. The credible threat of invasion against Taiwan is only a recent development in the 70+ years of that standoff existing.

I do think that China does believe in "limited wars" being possible when up against nuclear powers, and that they're likely going to force the US to put that to the test this year, probably before this summer. So long as the fighting(on the part of the US and allies--not the ROC) doesn't credibly threaten the Chinese mainland and their control over it, their nukes should remain in China.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: kidv on February 24, 2022, 06:18:11 PM
As of 2 hours 20 minutes ago,

Quote
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Hanna Malyar:

 Gostomel
 Active actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not allow to land the main forces of the enemy landing in Gostomel. The battle continues with the advanced group, which suffered losses after the fire.

from Ukraine ministry of defence official twitter

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1496952123522576385 (https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1496952123522576385)

Clarifying reports are that Ukraine shot down a Russian supertransport.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 24, 2022, 06:21:56 PM
Quote
I do think that China does believe in "limited wars" being possible when up against nuclear powers, and that they're likely going to force the US to put that to the test this year, probably before this summer. So long as the fighting(on the part of the US and allies--not the ROC) doesn't credibly threaten the Chinese mainland and their control over it, their nukes should remain in China.

So other then satisficing and historical hurt what does China gain by taking Taiwan - what's the win
I don't see any. The world and Chinese people will not be better off in anyway

Same with Russia - I don't see a win from them if if Putin wins
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 24, 2022, 06:32:23 PM
Russia will likely be better off with their gains in Ukraine so long as Russia can keep it limited. It might take a decade or more to get a solid "ROI" though.

Taiwan on the other hand? It's likely to be a blood bath, and destructive enough the China's going to have a hard time justifying in hindsight. Too many powerful nations have reason to not allow China to turn the SCS into it's own private waterway. It has everything to do with keeping trade lanes open, and nothing to do with "keeping the yellow man down." Especially as it relates to Taiwan, free Taiwan is likely to be better off if it remains free.

The problem China has is Taiwan runs directly counter to many of the nationalistic claims they like to make, so it needs to be removed.
Title: Re: !
Post by: Fenring on February 24, 2022, 07:57:55 PM
But I do not believe that Pooter is crazy enough to use nuclear weapons.  If I thought he might, I would instead target him personally.

I just do not think that people understand what "crazy" means. People can have mental illness; or be too destabilized to go to work every day; or be extremely predictable and then snap; or be psychopathic; or be bitter. And many more. Any of these could result in someone doing something unfortunate and against 'their own interest'. And then there's simple mistaken morality, 'maybe I die but I die nobly' without caring that other people die too. I imagine there are a spectrum of possible beliefs that could seem crazy to people who just disagree. Like is ritual suicide "insane" or just a different value? The notion that because a person can speak logically and lucidly like Putin, that therefore he cannot be 'crazy' enough to do a terrible thing...I don't think it takes that much. A person can even fool themselves into thinking they could never do a thing, and then just do it for reasons beyond them.

You seem to be talking about Putin's cold logic: he doesn't believe in the abstract nukes should be used, that this would be crazy. Who's to say any of us really uses cold logic at all? I don't personally even think the average person is that distanced from the sort of "if I have to die then you all die too" childish tantrum. Are children insane? Or are they all too human.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 10:27:29 PM
First day is over.  On to day two. 

Most analysis I've seen is that the Russians did not do as well as they hoped on day 1.  They seem to have overreached going after Hostomel Airfield with that air assault.  I heard somewhere that the plan had been to reinforce with paratroopers from 20 IL-76s but they turned back.  I guess maybe air defense or fighter defense was still still too strong to risk it.  But the air assault troops got captured, killed, or driven off.  But if the plan had been for Russian armored columns to reach them at the end of the day or end of day two, they didn't make it.  Guess the battle around Chernobyl slowed them down.

There is some unconfirmed audio of 13 Ukrainian border guard troopers stationed on some island in the Black Sea refusing to surrender to a Russian warship.  The audio is basically a modern version of General McAullife's response to the German request to surrender Bastogne.  The Russians opened fire and they're all dead.  That part is confirmed, the audio is unconfirmed. 

There is a rumor going around about a Ukrainian MiG-29 pilot who has shot down 6 Russian aircraft on the first day and is now the first ace of the 21st century.  They call him the "Ghost of Kiev".  I think it is possible, though unlikely, and even more unlikely given the crazy as hell kill list that some people are putting out.  Like I can see getting lucky with half those kills being Mi-8s or something.  Anyways, I'd love it to be true, but even if it is, the guy is likely to be killed in the coming days.

The other main takeaway from day 1 is that the Russians did not go for the full court press when it came to air attack, cyber attack, and artillery attack.  Some people are suggesting that is about to change.  Kiev started getting hit again about an hour ago from additional air attacks.  Not sure what the targets are. 

The Ukrainians to the east in the Donbass are being encircled.  The smart thing to do would be to make a fighting withdrawal and pull back to Dnipro and Zaporizhia before the Russians beat them there.  But a fighting withdrawal is the hardest thing to do.  It's likely these forces are going to be encircled and annihilated over the coming week.  At least they will keep a bunch of Russians tied up til then. 

So the Ukrainians are putting up a good fight, but not sure if time and logistics are on their side.  But one thing seems certain, is that the Ukrainians are not going to roll over. Without the benefit of a 2-7 day air campaign first to soften them up, I expect the Russians to take from 7 to 10 days to take Kiev and the Ukrainians start to fall apart.  There has been no breakthrough.  There has been no lightning thrust.  The Russians have not won, but the Ukrainians don't have time or materiel on their side.  Eventually Russia is going to take the gloves off and they're going to be ground down. Some Ukrainian troops with social media are resigned to death, but morale and discipline hasn't broken down.  Eastern European troops are funny like that. 

I missed the Grandpa President speech round 3.  I might listen later.  Anybody else listened to it?  Comments?

Anti-war protests beginning in Russia.  Surprising. 

Support is growing in Eastern Europe and in the US to bring Ukraine into NATO.  Growing but not yet a majority. 







Title: Re: !
Post by: Grant on February 24, 2022, 10:45:04 PM
You seem to be talking about Putin's cold logic: he doesn't believe in the abstract nukes should be used, that this would be crazy. Who's to say any of us really uses cold logic at all? I don't personally even think the average person is that distanced from the sort of "if I have to die then you all die too" childish tantrum. Are children insane? Or are they all too human.

You seem to have me mistaken for someone else.  I'm the guy who believes that the vast majority of humanity are morons 50-75% of the time.  Successful people are only morons 5-20% of the time.  Highly successful people are only morons 1-5% of the time.  I believe that all individuals, no matter how intelligent or successful, are primarily emotionally driven in many of their values and decisions.  Neuroscience and sociology seems to back up that assertion.  People who are morons 0% of the time are excessively dangerous and in danger constantly, because they don't understand other people at all.  I feel for them. 

I have no trouble believing that a world leader can be emotional and stupid.  Kim Jong Un comes to mind. 

I have no problem believing that Pooter might have some emotional blind spots.  It's already been pointed out by some people that they cannot understand logically why Pooter is doing this, since in the long term it will only hurt Russia.  But what they are missing is that Pooter has different priorities or values that they obviously do not understand, like the desire and demand for respect and power on the world stage. 

I don't think that is is impossible for Pooter to make major miscalculations.  Though it seems rare. 

What I do not expect is for a former KGB officer who rose to be the leader of Russia to be cut from the same cloth as Kim Jong Un.   Even if he was, I'm not sure if my reaction to a guy who is kicking the *censored* out of his neighbor and demands that I not help by threatening me and my family with nuclear death would be, "oh *censored*, I better leave that guy alone".  Personally, I see people that threaten me with death, for any reason, as people that I should be working on to eliminate.  If they are going to threaten me with death to get this, and I let them have it, they will soon be threatening me with death for other things.  Next they will be threatening Germany to reopen Nord Stream 2.  And they will keep threatening to get what they want. 
Title: Re: !
Post by: Fenring on February 25, 2022, 12:08:56 AM
You seem to have me mistaken for someone else.  I'm the guy who believes that the vast majority of humanity are morons 50-75% of the time.

I was just responding to your belief that Putin isn't crazy enough to do a crazy thing. My point was that in order to think someone incapable of a crazy thing you'd have to ascribe superhuman discipline to them. So if you push the "I dare you" button, no matter how less likely Putin might be to launch the nukes than Kim Jong Un might be, it's a much higher than zero probability chance he will nevertheless do it. He's a safer bet, but not a safe bet. If the stakes were unbelievably high it might be worth taking that risk, hence my comment above, that where the line is regarding acceptable stakes for that seems unclear to everyone for the last 75 years. Maybe eventually someone will go all-in with a nuclear power, they'll back down, and that will set a precedent of sorts. So far we don't have one.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 25, 2022, 02:45:19 AM
What kind of options do we have besides military for our response? Is Biden doing enough?

I mentioned sanctions against countries buying Russian energy. That's a start. Some other ideas are to start expelling Russians and maybe have other countries do the same. First, the families of diplomats. We can think about moving on from there to the diplomats themselves. Then not letting Russians in for tourism or work, cancelling all visas and not renewing them. And last maybe even expelling all Russian citizens from America. You've got a month to pack up and get out. If other countries did something like that, it seems like that would send a serious message and put some real pressure on Putin.

Obviously, also go after the money too. And not just a few of the top oligarchs and a couple of banks, but as people keep mentioning about how much of Ukraine Putin really wants, the whole enchilada.

Oh, and a no brainer is a major law enforcement push against the Russian mafia in America. That could be done with or without the invasion of Ukraine but if Biden needs an excuse to do what would be the right thing to do anyway, the timing presents itself as ideal right now.

On an unrelated note, I was listening to this in my car and thought how much I felt it related to what was happening in Ukraine, with their forces fighting desperately against what amounts to a titan. If I had more A/V talent I'd make a montage of this song as something of a propaganda / public relations jab to paint Putin and Russia as the forces of pure evil that they are with scenes of the titans attacking the walls and I'd put Putin's evil sneering mug on titans and mix in some real life video of some of the scenes unfolding in Ukraine at appropriate moments to match the lyrics, like the little Ukrainian girl Putin murdered with cluster bombs at the part about "will we die like trampled flowers" and the bludgeoned and bandage wrapped elderly lady mixed with images of the UN and NATO leadership at the part about "scream and cry but none will hear you, plead and beg but none will help you". At "will you rise and join the battle" there is a montage of brave Ukrainian troops. A Putin montage accompanies "there are beings living off our fears" with his quote threatening nuclear war when he said, "Whoever tries to stand in our way or create threats for our country and people should know Russia’s response will be immediate and lead you to consequences you have never encountered in your history" going along with "and their words are like knives as they play with our lives." As this war is being played out on live streaming cell phones more than any previous war, there is no dearth of heartbreaking images to accompany a song that is also heartbreaking but full of inspiration and determination to fight an almost impossibly powerful evil.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czam1dKjoCc&list=PLgYAivc85cgai4ZK-p_fprfo2FsLff88X
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 07:46:10 AM
What kind of options do we have besides military for our response? Is Biden doing enough?

The problem here is that Grandpa President isn't the only one involved.  There seems to be a degree of response by committee within NATO. 

I obviously think we should be intervening militarily to a degree, while attempting to keep things localized to Ukraine, but I acknowledge the difficulty involved in this.  And the final problem is a lack of public support.  Democratic politicians have been trained that leadership is a bad idea. 

Quote
I mentioned sanctions against countries buying Russian energy. That's a start.

I'm still against this.  We're trying to help and convince our allies, not turn them into enemies. 

Quote
Some other ideas are to start expelling Russians and maybe have other countries do the same. First, the families of diplomats. We can think about moving on from there to the diplomats themselves. Then not letting Russians in for tourism or work, cancelling all visas and not renewing them. And last maybe even expelling all Russian citizens from America.

LOL.  You probably won't like this Cherry, but I'm of the exact opposite mind.  I think we should adopt the proposal that we offer visas and fast track citizenship for any Russian with a technical degree. Suck Pooter's intelligensia dry before he throws down another iron curtain. 

https://www.nationalreview.com/2022/02/drain-putins-brains/?utm_source=recirc-desktop&utm_medium=article&utm_campaign=right-rail&utm_content=top-stories&utm_term=fourth

Quote
Oh, and a no brainer is a major law enforcement push against the Russian mafia in America.

We're not doing this already?  I don't think those guys are even really Russian.  They're American criminals, lol.  I don't know how it would hurt Russia, but we should be going after them already anyways. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on February 25, 2022, 07:49:07 AM
Putin is likely a psychopath (by psychopath I mean physiologically incapable of empathy and related oxytocin dependent emotions - such as love, loyalty, fear, anxiety, disgust). A psychopath only cares about consequences to themselves.  Therefore you can't use standard moral calculus when dealing with a psychopath.  For them millions, tens of millions, even billions of other people dying or suffering don't matter to them at all.  The only thing that matters is what they personally stand to gain or lose, and how likely they personally are to gain or lose.

So for instance - starting a nuclear war that kills most of the world population - their primary concern is how dull it would be to live in a fallout shelter and that it might not have adequate luxuries - since that would be the most significant risk to themselves.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 08:01:52 AM
For the last 24 hours, NATO has had between 3-5 refuelers over Poland or Romania.  Three E-3 Sentry AWACS over Poland and Romania, and a Rivet Joint.  All refueling fighters not squawking.  F-35s are now forward deployed.

If NATO isn't going to launch an air offensive, they are at least presenting the capability of doing so at a moment's notice, giving Russia something to think about. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 25, 2022, 08:01:58 AM
I'm not totally against a Russian brain-drain operation. They'd probably send a bunch of spies along with them but we'd get a lot of talent to offset that. I do feel for the Russian people and can't imagine most of them support the Ukraine invasion, or if it actually is most of them that do support it, there would still be a significant minority as in tens of millions of Russians who do not. I saw a story that at least some of the Russian soldiers are green conscripts who were lied about what they were getting into.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 08:08:48 AM
Putin is likely a psychopath

I'm not going to psychoanalyze world leaders except to draw obvious conclusions from particular actions.  I'm not a psychiatrist or a psychologist.  I imagine that the IC has some of these people on their payroll to make these assessments and that world leaders are able to read them and come up with their own assessments after meeting him. 

That being said, some dude on Quora did an analysis using something called a Hare Psychopathy Test. 

https://www.quora.com/Is-Vladimir-Putin-a-high-functioning-high-IQ-psychopath

Quote
Let’s do it scientifically and apply The Hare Psychopathy Checklist:

Do you have "excess glibness" or superficial charm? No, Putin is not really charming. But he tries to sometimes. So, “maybe”.
Do you have a grandiose sense of self-worth? Yes, Putin certainly has that now. But it makes sense for a world leader. There is no indication that he had that before. He actually never strived to become a ruler of Russia. He was appointed, really. So, “maybe”.
Do you have an excessive need for stimulation or proneness to boredom? Yes, Putin is always busy, with state affairs or other things. He also likes to try new things publicly. New sports, for example.
Are you a pathological liar? Putin is a former spy, a former security official, and a politician. So, the answer is yes.
Are you conning or manipulative? Same thing. Obviously yes.
Do you display a lack of remorse or guilt? Yes, Putin is not really remorseful or guilt-ridden. At least, not in public.
Do you have "shallow affect"? Yes, Putin has that sometimes. Although, he is also known to show true and deep emotions. For example, he was pretty devastated when his former martial arts coach died.
Are you callous, or do you lack empathy? Yes, Putin is known for callous jokes. Empathy is not easy for him.
Do you have a "parasitic lifestyle"? No, Putin has successfully worked for living pretty much all of his adult life.
Do you have poor behavioral controls? No, Putin has decent self-control. Not perfect. but decent.
Do you have a history of promiscuous sexual behavior? No, Putin has nothing like that. Even rumors about his sex life are exceedingly bland.
Do you have a history of early behavioral problems? Yes, he was a handful as a child. Despite being relatively small and weak. But not too much of a handful. So, “maybe”.
Do you lack realistic long-term goals? Yes, his early goal in life was becoming a spy. That was clearly not realistic and movie-inspired. He admits it himself. But he was able to achieve his goal. So, “maybe”.
Are you overly impulsive? Unlikely. Once again, Putin has decent self-control.
Do you have a high level of irresponsibility? Putin is a Russian politician, so the answer is “yes”.
Do you fail to accept responsibility for your own actions? That one is complicated. Putin likes to blame others, but he also accepts responsibility from time to time. Let’s say “maybe”.
Have you had many short-term "marital" relationships? Obviously no.
Do you have a history of juvenile delinquency? Yes, he has. Not hardcore, though. He was never caught, prosecuted or even investigated as a child.
Have you ever experienced a "revocation of conditional release"? No, Putin was never imprisoned.
Do you display "criminal versatility"? Yes, Putin is versatile in breaking official norms and international rules.
So, Putin is 21/40 (“no” is 0, “yes” is 2, “maybe” is 1). This is high, but not psychopathically high. You need to be at least 30/40 to be considered a psychopath. Still, Putin’s result is worrying.

I'm curious if the KGB would have let a psychopath through their psych assessments. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 10:04:00 AM
Quote
Russia will likely be better off with their gains in Ukraine so long as Russia can keep it limited. It might take a decade or more to get a solid "ROI" though.
I don't see it. Even if Putin 'wins' the war I don't see Russia and her peoples better off. I know Russia is leaning hard on China to make up for any loses but I don't see how that doesn't end up with them a play thing of China. Russia losses by wining
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 10:05:53 AM
I'm curious if the KGB would have let a psychopath through their psych assessments.

I would assume the KGB, as with other unpleasant organizations, would actively recruit psychopaths.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 10:17:58 AM
For the past few years Putin state media has pushed the story that Ukraine has opened concentration camps to murder Russian speaking citizens
Apparently 60% of the population believes this to be true ...

I wonder how many of the things I believe are true are... how 'crazy' factors into that. Who is crazy the one doing the gaslighting or the one gaslit?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 11:20:59 AM
Russia allowed to compete in Eurovision contest.  LOL.  I mean, how can you take Europe seriously sometimes?  I suppose they'll be at the World Cup and Olympics too.  Jupiter's Rooster. 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/entertainment/eurovision-russia/index.html

Gotta respect how Zelenskyy has gone to wearing army beige T-shirts in press conferences. 

I see some talk about Kiev falling eventually, a new government set up, and transitioning to a resistance fight.  I don't think it's going to work.  I think support for Ukraine is going to completely dry up once the government is decapitated and the remaining Ukrainian units will either flee across the border or surrender and wind up in some Siberian prison camp.  I think at that point the rest of Europe is going to be preoccupied in trying to calm down the Baltic states and Eastern European NATO countries, while the rest of them try to go back to business and usual.

I think the window of opportunity is closing and I think it is tragic.  Because things could have been done but were not. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 11:38:28 AM
The best way to reassure the Baltic states would be to keep sending weapons to Ukraine. If the invasion fails whether next week, next year, or in the next decade, Russia won't be invading anyone else for the foreseeable future.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 11:51:10 AM
The best way to reassure the Baltic states would be to keep sending weapons to Ukraine. If the invasion fails whether next week, next year, or in the next decade, Russia won't be invading anyone else for the foreseeable future.

There may not be anyone to send weapons to in Ukraine in a week or two. 

As to how soon Russia could be threatening anyone else, it's not just a matter of their army having to regroup, resupply, reman, and retrain.  It's also a matter that Russia will have knocked off the largest army in Eastern Europe.  Nearly twice the size of the next largest, Poland, and sure larger than the entire Baltic States combined.  They are using 75% of their Army for this.  One assumes they could take Poland and the Baltics with only 40-50%.  They don't even need to launch and invasion.  They simply need to forward deploy, just like they did around Ukraine since December, and blame NATO for building up on their borders. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 12:01:49 PM
Best map. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UkraineCoTFeb24%2C2022.png

A little dated.  I believe the Russians have expanded further south on the west bank of Dnieper and have launched an amphibious assault near Mariupol. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 12:08:25 PM
Their has been talk of Ukraine being like Afghanistan and Iraq - hard to hold once occupied but I don't think that's going to be the case- Totally different environments and peoples

Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 12:09:29 PM
There may not be anyone to send weapons to in Ukraine in a week or two. 

As to how soon Russia could be threatening anyone else, it's not just a matter of their army having to regroup, resupply, reman, and retrain.  It's also a matter that Russia will have knocked off the largest army in Eastern Europe.  Nearly twice the size of the next largest, Poland, and sure larger than the entire Baltic States combined.  They are using 75% of their Army for this.  One assumes they could take Poland and the Baltics with only 40-50%.  They don't even need to launch and invasion.  They simply need to forward deploy, just like they did around Ukraine since December, and blame NATO for building up on their borders. 



I think that's an overly pessimistic view. Ukraine has been planning for its inability to beat Russia in the field since at least 2014. I doubt Russia will be able to declare mission accomplished any time soon. A lot of their troops are going to be bogged down in COIN for a long time.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 12:10:06 PM
Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is

Well, it's pretty easy when Pakistan and Russia are not arming and funding a resistance. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 12:12:58 PM
Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is

Well, it's pretty easy when Pakistan and Russia are not arming and funding a resistance.

Going to be much harder for the west to keep arming the resistance
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 12:16:55 PM
Now imagine US and assorted members of the EU supporting a resistance. Russia has almost certainly bitten off more than it can chew.
Going to be much harder for the west to keep arming the resistance

Why?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 12:18:32 PM
I would think it was pretty easy crossing into Afghanistan.
How will the west get the weapons into the hands of the resistance?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 12:27:15 PM
Ukraine's got a bunch of friendly countries on its western borders. If Ukraine has done any planning for a resistance, they've already set up means to receive weapons from friendly sources. It also depends on how far and how quickly Russia gets to that border. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 12:37:24 PM
I think that's an overly pessimistic view. Ukraine has been planning for its inability to beat Russia in the field since at least 2014. I doubt Russia will be able to declare mission accomplished any time soon. A lot of their troops are going to be bogged down in COIN for a long time.

I understand this assessment but I disagree with it, and I'll say why.

Once the Ukrainian government falls, and the Ukrainian army is eventually ground down and basically fades into the countryside or flees into Poland or Romania, nobody is going to really want to keep support bases or keep supplying them from their territory because it will invite invasion by Russia.  That includes any remaining government in exile, if Zelenskyy survives, which I would bet against. 

As RL said, it's harder to supply a resistance on a European border as compared to the 1000s of miles of mountainous wilderness that was Afghanistan-Pakistan, or the 1000s of miles of jungle that was South Vietnam-Laos-Cambodia.  The Viet Cong and the Taliban always had Pakistan or Laos to run to.  Poland and Romania probably are not going to want to have resistance fighters going in and out of their borders, and Russia is going to lock the border down tight.  I don't think it will happen.  As I said, the war will probably be over in a week or so, after Kiev falls.  The Russians have not even gone all out yet.  They've been holding back to limit civilian casualties. 

I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 12:38:54 PM
Ukraine's got a bunch of friendly countries on its western borders. If Ukraine has done any planning for a resistance, they've already set up means to receive weapons from friendly sources. It also depends on how far and how quickly Russia gets to that border.

That friendship is going to rapidly decrease when the Russians are on that border and the Ukrainians don't have much of an army left to fight the Russians.  People like Germany and the UK and France might still be sympathetic, but they will not be in a position to do much because of geography. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 12:47:42 PM
I understand this assessment but I disagree with it, and I'll say why.

Once the Ukrainian government falls, and the Ukrainian army is eventually ground down and basically fades into the countryside or flees into Poland or Romania, nobody is going to really want to keep support bases or keep supplying them from their territory because it will invite invasion by Russia.  That includes any remaining government in exile, if Zelenskyy survives, which I would bet against. 

As RL said, it's harder to supply a resistance on a European border as compared to the 1000s of miles of mountainous wilderness that was Afghanistan-Pakistan, or the 1000s of miles of jungle that was South Vietnam-Laos-Cambodia.  The Viet Cong and the Taliban always had Pakistan or Laos to run to.  Poland and Romania probably are not going to want to have resistance fighters going in and out of their borders, and Russia is going to lock the border down tight.  I don't think it will happen.  As I said, the war will probably be over in a week or so, after Kiev falls.  The Russians have not even gone all out yet.  They've been holding back to limit civilian casualties. 

I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out.

Poland will likely do everything it can to make Russia's life a living hell. Beating the Russians in Ukraine is much better for them fight Russia in Poland.

And there's no way Russia is going to attack a NATO member until Ukraine is pacified. They can host resistance fighters much more openly than Pakistan or Iran could. It's where the escalation argument turns around to bite Russia in the ass. NATO can't intervene directly in Ukraine because it would force them to engage targets in Russia or Belarus but at the same time, Russia can't pursue targets into Poland no matter how much it wants to.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 12:49:10 PM
Russian Navy in Black Sea attacking Japanese and Moldovan shipping.  Hit a Turkish ship yesterday.  Does this count as "trade interests" for the United States?  Will this change anyone's calculus?  I doubt it. 

https://splash247.com/two-more-ships-hit-in-the-black-sea/



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 12:56:43 PM
And there's no way Russia is going to attack a NATO member until Ukraine is pacified. They can host resistance fighters much more openly than Pakistan or Iran could. It's where the escalation argument turns around to bite Russia in the ass. NATO can't intervene directly in Ukraine because it would force them to engage targets in Russia or Belarus but at the same time, Russia can't pursue targets into Poland no matter how much it wants to.

LOL.  They don't really have to.  They simply have to threaten it.  Look around and see what is happening.  NATO is doing everything it can to AVOID a war with Russia.  They are responding to the Russian threats.  They won't invite Russian attacks or invasions. 

For 14 years people have been saying "Russia won't do this".  They wouldn't invade Georgia.  They wouldn't invade Crimea.  They wouldn't invade Ukraine.  They did.  Now it's "they won't attack a NATO country". 

You might indeed be right and that there is enough people that believe that would be crossing a line, but would you blame Russia and Pooter for making that miscalculation?  But I don't believe that Poland or Romania would do anything that would be seen as inviting it.  It's easy to feel that way from the UK or US.  But it's different when you're sitting on the ground in Poland or Romania. 

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid this is what would happen. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on February 25, 2022, 12:57:40 PM
Russian Navy in Black Sea attacking Japanese and Moldovan shipping.  Hit a Turkish ship yesterday.  Does this count as "trade interests" for the United States?  Will this change anyone's calculus?  I doubt it. 

https://splash247.com/two-more-ships-hit-in-the-black-sea/

Remember the Lusitania?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 01:11:02 PM
Remember the Lusitania?

I think the public response was due to Lusitania being primarily a passenger ship and a hundred+ Americans were on board.  But by all means, if hitting cargo vessels is what it takes to wake people up. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 01:13:40 PM
LOL.  They don't really have to.  They simply have to threaten it.  Look around and see what is happening.  NATO is doing everything it can to AVOID a war with Russia.  They are responding to the Russian threats.  They won't invite Russian attacks or invasions. 

For 14 years people have been saying "Russia won't do this".  They wouldn't invade Georgia.  They wouldn't invade Crimea.  They wouldn't invade Ukraine.  They did.  Now it's "they won't attack a NATO country". 

You might indeed be right and that there is enough people that believe that would be crossing a line, but would you blame Russia and Pooter for making that miscalculation?  But I don't believe that Poland or Romania would do anything that would be seen as inviting it.  It's easy to feel that way from the UK or US.  But it's different when you're sitting on the ground in Poland or Romania. 

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid this is what would happen.
I just don't see the people who are next on Putin's list offering no material support to Ukraine. They aren't right now because the risk of a direct confrontation is too high. Once the open fighting is over, there's going to be a lot more opportunities to screw Russia over without risking an all-out shooting war.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 01:32:36 PM
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Once the open fighting is over, there's going to be a lot more opportunities to screw Russia over without risking an all-out shooting war.

Putin playing by his own rules and has been pretty successful at it

Take Ukraine only calling up reserves and such after the fact of the invasion. I hope they were preparing behind the scenes but suspect they couldn't do so openly as Putin would use that as a excuse and proof of Ukraine aggression. (they really were in a no win) 
I suspect Poland and the other countries boarding Ukraine want to screw Russia but they are going have to be very carful playing the game were Putin gets to change the rules as he see fit.

Putin's reality is the only one that matters. Amazing how one man can have this mush influence over the world.

One of the richest man in the world and this is what he does - what's the point. Like all game of thrones the ending is always disappointing and the only thing that changes is a lot of people (cannon fodder) dying for nothing real. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 01:33:07 PM
Russia threatens Finland after the Finnish PM says the discussion over Finland joining NATO will be changing, despite promising that Finland would not join during her term and that joining NATO would possibly have repercussions. 

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-military-repurcussions-finland-nato-163803214.html

Massive explosion in Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497248635603623999?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

McCaffrey says logistical support is too late.  Criticizes decision to abandon US embassy in Kiev. 

https://twitter.com/mccaffreyr3/status/1497260539495346176?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

1st BDE 3ID ordered from Ft Stewart Georgia to Germany. 



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on February 25, 2022, 01:42:17 PM
If Finland wants to present NATO membership as a fait accompli, now would be the time to do it. Even if Ukraine surrenders tomorrow, it would be months if not a year before Russia could take any direct action against Finland.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 25, 2022, 03:28:50 PM
Quote
I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out.

Nobody had much trouble getting arms into Northern Ireland.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 04:23:30 PM
Quote
I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out.

Nobody had much trouble getting arms into Northern Ireland.

I wonder how that would go today with modern surveillance capabilities?

Still I guess if their is a will their is a way... I wonder about the will as the consequences of Russia catching those involved could be used as a excuse for who knows what actions
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 04:35:41 PM
Nobody had much trouble getting arms into Northern Ireland.

1.  That's because they shipped them into the Republic of Ireland and then walked or drove them across the border.  Even then, it wasn't exactly easy. 

2.  An insurgency in Northern Ireland isn't an insurgency in Ukraine. 

3. Geography.  A lot bigger.

4. Different enemy.  British Army and Irish Provos are not the Russian Army and the FSB. 

5. Jeezus.  I really don't want the Ukrainian resistance turning into the IRA.  I wouldn't wish that on anybody. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 25, 2022, 05:06:49 PM
I don't want a URA either, I'm just saying that I don't think smuggling arms across rural borders with Poland is significantly different from the Irish border. Assuming that the Poles aren't trying to prevent it much from their side. If there is a resistance in Ukraine, it probably looks more like the Basque ETA than the IRA.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 05:31:27 PM
Always one of the best daily briefings out there. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022

These guys are pretty good at telling what is happening. Maybe not great at figuring out what is going to happen next, but it's not always easy playing Carnac the Magnificent.  I generally agree with their reasoning but they and I have been wrong before. 

Quote
Key Takeaways

Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro on February 25. Russian sabotage groups in civilian clothes are reportedly active in downtown Kyiv.
Russian forces have so far failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts. Ukrainian forces have successfully slowed Russian troops, which have temporarily abandoned the failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv and are instead bypassing it.
Elements of the Russian 76th VDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in southeastern Belarus likely for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkhiv in the next 24 hours after failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on February 24.
Russian forces have achieved little success on frontal assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.
North of Crimea, Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.
Russian forces may be assembling in Stolin, Belarus, to open a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.

Quote
Immediate items to watch

Social media users observed a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25.[29] These forces could potentially conduct a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.
Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.
Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.
Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near future.
Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 25, 2022, 05:31:30 PM
Current headlines in Russian papers

- West was covering up crimes of Kiev regime that led to Ukraine’s tragedy, Lavrov says
- Ukrainian extremists lynching, pogroming conscripts who lay down arms — Russian top brass
- Russia wants all peoples of Ukraine to freely determine their destiny — Lavrov
- Russian army’s main clashes in Ukraine are with neo-Nazis - Putin[/li][/list]
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on February 25, 2022, 05:46:00 PM
Putin is likely a psychopath

[...]
That being said, some dude on Quora did an analysis using something called a Hare Psychopathy Test. 

Yes this is the standard tool used in criminology for determining criminal psychopathy and are to help predict recidivism rate.  The questions can be broken down into two subgroups - Factor 1 psychopathy - which corresponds well to the psychological construct of psychopathy (and more recently 'malignant narcissism'); and Factor 2 psychopathy - which corresponds well to poor impulse control (and the diagnosis of anti-social personality disorder).  The "no's" for Putin are almost all Factor 2 (Parasitic lifestyle; poor behavioral control; promiscuous; impulsive) - they really aren't relevant to psychopathy - but are good predictors of recidivism (poor impulse control combined with psychopathy makes someone extremely likely to re-offend; psychopaths without poor impulse control only engage in crime based on their evaluation of risk vs payoff, but with poor impulse control are less likely to evaluate risks).

Quote
I'm curious if the KGB would have let a psychopath through their psych assessments.

They tend to be extremely common in the intelligence services, including our own.  Non-impulsive psychopaths make superb agents, but there is one major risk - they are incapable of loyalty, and thus are perfectly willing to sell out their own country for the right incentive.

Also until fairly recently (past 10 years or so), they were extremely difficult to spot using standard testing.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 25, 2022, 06:20:10 PM
Just one thing to bear in mind about Putin, we don't know what his actual personality traits are. We know how he presents in public, and that's about it. From TV alone we can't tell whether he has empathy or not, or has grandiosity, or any of the other traits. From his interviews he's obviously capable as presenting as very confident, and can be charming if he wants, but as with most 'celebrities' what you're seeing is a public persona. Same goes with actors ranging from Tom Cruise to the classic starlets, you are seeing a product on display, not a person. They are always 'working' when in public, which is probably exhausting but you don't know what they're really like just from their public appearances. It's not that hard to do this and isn't a sign of psychopathy. Basically I don't know that I can be sure of anything about Putin other than what he does.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 06:21:31 PM
They tend to be extremely common in the intelligence services, including our own.  Non-impulsive psychopaths make superb agents

Mmmmhmmm. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 25, 2022, 07:14:43 PM
Quote
Russia will likely be better off with their gains in Ukraine so long as Russia can keep it limited. It might take a decade or more to get a solid "ROI" though.
I don't see it. Even if Putin 'wins' the war I don't see Russia and her peoples better off. I know Russia is leaning hard on China to make up for any loses but I don't see how that doesn't end up with them a play thing of China. Russia losses by wining

Unless China provides a basis for "the west" to "make a deal with the devil(Putin)" while they deal with China.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 25, 2022, 07:20:04 PM
Their has been talk of Ukraine being like Afghanistan and Iraq - hard to hold once occupied but I don't think that's going to be the case- Totally different environments and peoples

Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is

Safe bet the Russians will not be a "soft touch" like the US was in Iraq and Afghanistan. That changes things considerably on its own. Throw in cultural differences and I think you pretty much have the long and short of it. Chechnya demonstrates Russia does have problems with resistance fighters, but most of those were Islamic fighters as well, IIRC. Ukraine doesn't have the jihadists to fall back on.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 25, 2022, 07:27:38 PM
Russian Navy in Black Sea attacking Japanese and Moldovan shipping.  Hit a Turkish ship yesterday.  Does this count as "trade interests" for the United States?  Will this change anyone's calculus?  I doubt it. 

https://splash247.com/two-more-ships-hit-in-the-black-sea/

Depends on if Japan or Turkey want to invoke the mutual defense clause of their respective nations. Turkey being a NATO member certainly makes it spicey. But they'll likely try diplomatic options instead if the Iran-Iraq war of the 80's are any indicator.

Although if Russia hits more Turkish ships they certainly risk Turkey ratifying UNCLOS which is the absolute last thing Russia wants... That would mean US Carrier Battlegroups in the Black Sea. Currently the US cannot legally enter the Black Sea with a Carrier, or more than a couple destroyers at a time.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 25, 2022, 07:53:44 PM
Senior British Conservative MPs call for No Fly Zone over Ukraine. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davis-ellwood-nato-russia-ukraine-b2022259.html

Quote
Former cabinet minister David Davis warned that if Nato does not act immediately by offering air support to Ukraine's troops, the country will be defeated "in a matter of days".

And the chair of the Commons Defence Committee, Tobias Ellwood, said Western powers must assist Kyiv with military options including offensive weapons systems and a no-fly zone.


General Wesley Clark, former SACEUR, writes editorial supporting no fly zone.

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-who-putin-really-is-20220225-6gcvrti6uzf4ngttpz33x4i2ay-story.html

Quote
Even more than the lives of 40 million people are on the line. NATO itself is less defensible if Ukraine is occupied by a hostile power. The Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — are possible next targets. Ukrainian resistance will weaken Russia’s threat to these democracies. And if Russia gains Ukraine’s technical capabilities and resources, it poses an even greater threat to NATO. From the sidelines China is watching, calculating U.S. courage and resolve. Ukraine’s fight is thus our fight, too.

The best course of action is to demand Russia halt and establish a safe zone over Kyiv and in the western part of the country. This would have to be declared and enforced by the United States. The UN should back this.

Goes on CNN to defend the argument.  Also supported by former SACEUR General George Joulwan who said the same thing on CNN last night. 


Congressman Adam Kinzinger then goes on CNN and Twitter to also support the idea. 



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on February 25, 2022, 08:11:38 PM
Here is a perspective on the invasion from the perspective of someone living in Russia,

Quote
Today, in my office, two guys gloated over graphic images of two dead Ukrainian women killed in the apartment block from Russian attack helicopter fire.

“It’s our revenge for what you did in Donbas!” a law school graduate and head of R & D department announced gleefully. The other voiced his full support.

Under any other circumstances, two nice, intelligent guys.

The whole two employees feel ashamed of the invasion of Ukraine carried out by the Russian Army. The rest, or about 80%, have slid into new reality and became complacent with the new normal. My co-workers huddle in the kitchen to watch “victory after victory in Ukraine” news and applaud Putin’s army.

They won’t be taking to the streets to protest invasion even if safety from police brutality was guaranteed.

Westerners are under false impression that Russians hanker for the liberation from the kleptocratic regime. Nothing could be further from the truth. On a deep level, Russians understand that the regime is all they have to hold this country together, and many cling to propaganda because it gives them a sense of purpose and belonging.

Without the regime and propaganda, Russians have no higher goal, no national unity, no binding forces to keep tens of millions of people in the same union across one seventh world’s terrain.

Journalist and author Alexander Nevzorov wrote in his Instagram account today:

“In the last twenty years, Russia has been busy with absolutely nothing except for making rockets, tanks, bombs, propaganda, military parades and flaunting its own military might. A Cult of Stalin has come to fruition…everything in Russia has worked towards war and its accessories. Everything else life-related was abandoned. Within the womb of Russia a perfect war machine grew.”

Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov declared, “Ukrainians released from oppression will be free to choose their future.”

He claims exactly the opposite of what president Zelenovsky said: that it’s the Russian oppression that doesn't let Ukrainians choose their future.

Kremlin madmen who fell for their own propaganda unlikely will stop with ‘liberation’ of Ukraine. They’ll march on to grab more land in short time.

Make no mistake, Russian regime is the Nazis of the 21st century. They’ve spent eight eight years preparing for the world war.

And do not ask yourself why people are not protesting in Russia.

Russians are NOT AWARE what transformation has happened to them, because changes had dragged on for almost a decade. The new normal gradually has grown on them.

Do you think Nazi army soldiers saw themselves as those heartless, brain-dead storm troopers from films about World War Two and their supreme leader as the embodiment of evil?

No!

Everything Nazi soldiers did was completely normal to them. Exactly, like in Russia of the 21st century, where people had spent years being pummelled with war propaganda, and going to war is a cathartic release from the psychological pressure cookie.

The West is trying to scare Russian regime with new sanctions?

Pleeeease.

These men and women are rebuilding Soviet Empire in real time. The higher purpose beats bank account freezes by a long stretch.

It’s too late for sanctions now, and honestly, they had never worked. Russians are accustomed to suffering on almost inhuman scale, and the regime has kept receiving billions of dollars for their luxury lifestyle.

Putin’s regime knows they are war criminals and they might have decided that the best strategy is to take as many with them as they can.

Things are unraveling and fast.

Don’t hold it against Russians. If not them, it would be some other people and country. Fascism never goes away. Ever.

Russians were weakened and I WAS here in the 1990s and I cannot describe what a psychologically dreadful and devastating era it was.

The weakened people allowed a virus of fascism to creep in and take hold. Slowly but surely, they succumbed to its dark power.

Moscow is Berlin of the 21st century.

With a caveat: high tech technologies. And Russians are damn good at this stuff. Bloody good.

Expect a twenty first century resistance.

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-it-that-the-Russians-are-not-protesting-against-Putin-for-going-to-war-with-Ukraine/answer/Misha-Firer
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 25, 2022, 11:00:23 PM
From the little reporting I've bothered to pay attention to apart from what I'm getting on a handful of forums and chats. It seems to me that either the Russians are holding back "their good stuff" or "their good stuff" isn't that good. At least when compared to what the Americans are playing around with.

It they think they've built themselves an unstoppable military juggernaut, they're probably going to have a very rude awakening when they try to use it against NATO and US Forces who will be using the latest and greatest military tech available. The Ukranians are putting up a pretty good fight, and they're not using the top of the line stuff expressly because of concerns about Russians capturing it.

The silver lining in this, however, is that if the Russians are using the best they have available.. That bodes well where a potential conflict with China is concerned, given much of China military tech and military doctrines came from the Russians.

I guess in that respect, China has to be pushing behind the scenes to get NATO and Russia to start shooting at each other so the PLA can get a better feel for what they might be going up against when they move on Taiwan. If the Americans managed to shred the Russian forces they go up against, that probably would cause the Taiwan invasion plans to get scrubbed post haste.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 26, 2022, 11:16:40 AM
Too much going on.  Too much happening to keep up with everything and I'm busy at work anyways. 

Key is that Ukraine is still holding on.  Kyiv hasn't fallen yet.  Zelenskyy is still alive.  Ukrainians are appearing more confident and determined.  Russia still has supposedly not even brought up 50% of it's forces yet, so the fighting is not over.  Ukrainian Air Force is still flying (by some miracle).  The populace is going to full mobilization.  Russians may get dirty as it becomes more difficult to tell who is and who is not a combatant since the general populace does not have uniforms.  You'll see more civilian casualties because the line between civilian and combatant in Ukraine is disappearing. 

Major new news:  The President-in-Exile of Belarus, in Poland now, declared herself the one true President of Belarus and denounced Lukashenko as a Russian puppet for going along with the invasion. 

https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Kazakstan refused to send additional troops to fight in Ukraine. 


*censored* is falling apart for Pooter.  Problem is that can increase the danger if the Russians get desperate and don't want to take a loss.  It's more likely that if they cannot take Kyiv they simply withdraw to the areas they already occupied before the offensive began.  But there is a long long way to go before we get there. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 26, 2022, 11:32:05 AM
From the little reporting I've bothered to pay attention to apart from what I'm getting on a handful of forums and chats. It seems to me that either the Russians are holding back "their good stuff" or "their good stuff" isn't that good. At least when compared to what the Americans are playing around with.

I don't know that they're "holding back their GOOD STUFF", but rather they are holding back period.  My thought was they didn't want to use the full strength of their artillery and ground attack aircraft for fear of causing too many casualties and looking bad and stiffening resistance.  They're also not pressing the attack with their entire force quickly and with violence.  They're kinda half-assing it.  Maybe it is a logistical or command/control problem.  Maybe they don't want to go all out.  Russians traditionally like to keep a large reserve for a breakout anyways.  But there has been no breakout and if they're keeping a reserve for exploitation, they're keeping it too far back anyways.  I don't know. 

Their stuff has never been comparable to ours, except in a few areas.  They have good aircraft, but they never had the training and experience we had.  Syria was supposed to fix that, but it hasn't seemed to translate as success in Ukraine.  Russian air defense has always been better, but it's because we don't put a bunch of resources in air defense except for missile interception with the navy and ballistic missile interception with Patriot.  Lol, we don't even have mobile ballistic missile capability like they do.  The idea being that we don't need it when our Air Force is so badass. 

They are dabbling in these new hypersonic stuff and maybe they have a lead on developing some weapons, but they are ahead there because we just don't need hypersonic weapons.  They do because they cannot penetrate our air defenses otherwise.  We can do it without it, using stealth and mass. 

Quote
It they think they've built themselves an unstoppable military juggernaut, they're probably going to have a very rude awakening when they try to use it against NATO and US Forces who will be using the latest and greatest military tech available. The Ukranians are putting up a pretty good fight, and they're not using the top of the line stuff expressly because of concerns about Russians capturing it.

Lol.  No, they'd probably be slaughtered against NATO.  Especially if they're going half-assed like they are in Ukraine.  Not saying they couldn't take the Baltics or Finland or maybe even Poland.  But they better come heavy, lol, not like this.  If Ukraine had NATO equipment they'd be counterattacking the Russians already and chasing them back into Russia and Belarus. 

Note: The Ukrainians do have some NATO equipment.  But they are still not equipped like the Germans or the British or like the US.  Rooster, you could probably win the ground war in Ukraine right now with a single American Armored Cavalry Regiment.  They don't have even older American planes.  Their planes are not bad, though. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 26, 2022, 11:58:20 AM
Italy and Hungary now backing Russian expulsion from SWIFT banking system. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/swift-eu-leaders-line-up-to-back-banning-russia-from-banking-network

I'm not a finance guy but my understanding was that this was a "nuclear option". 


Germany allowing lethal aid to be shipped through their territory, a major change in policy. 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/


Ukraine opens a hotline for Russian families of soldiers to notify them if their sons had been captured or their bodies recovered. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 26, 2022, 01:00:07 PM
I'm surprised there isn't more drone warfare.

Now is the time to go all out on economic and diplomatic pressure against Russia while it still looks like Ukraine might have a chance. The plan to use sanctions against Russia over the long term as they digest Ukraine is a bad one. The SWIFT ban should happen immediately. The time to throw everything at Russia including the kitchen sink is right now. Keeping some ammunition in reserve will make it much less useful than the shock and awe of going full frontal while there is still a chance Russia can be convinced to pull out. These half measures and veiled threats and even sometimes seeming encouragements like Biden suggested with his "It's one thing if it's a minor incursion..." babble are not cutting it.

Russia needs to be immediately and totally isolated economically until all they are getting is humanitarian aid to keep from starving or freezing. And any countries not going along should be cut off from U.S. banks as well and assets should start getting frozen. This really is a case of if you're not with us you are against us.

It needs to be made clear to Putin that the indemnity Russia will be forced to pay to Ukraine which is already substantial and in the billions, is going up faster than the American debt clock and the only way to slow it down is to start pulling out. The longer he waits, the more he's going to to owe and lose. Lives lost and damage done need to start showing up on the online Russia to Ukraine indemnity clock so Putin can see the damage he is doing to his own country in stark financial terms. Russia needs to pay for what they've done here, literally.

The sooner they pull out, the sooner the gas and money can start flowing again and the sooner they can start paying off their blood debt, and the sooner the better for them because the interest on it is already accruing.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 26, 2022, 01:25:17 PM
I'm going to recalibrate my opinion on Trump's words about Putin and the invasion.

Trump's opinion on this is idiotic. Putin isn't a genius. This wasn't a bold move and it won't be a profitable one. It was a huge blunder and it's going to cost Putin and Russia more than they ever imagined and more than they could possibly hope to gain.

The world is going to make sure of it.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 26, 2022, 03:10:03 PM
Germany didn't just allow military aid through their borders/airspace  they're providing military aid themselves. They're also now allowing their arms to be provided to Ukraine via third party nations.

Also there is word circulating that Russia has targeted schools and hospitals, likely trying to get more solid confirmation of that before it gets major media attention.. But add in Russia bringing up MRLRS Thermobaric Weapon systems.... NATO might end up intervening on humanitarian grounds soon enough on the basis that the Russians are committing war crimes.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 26, 2022, 10:38:42 PM
Russia is also now in the process of unloading troops and equipment in Belarus just 10 miles from Poland's border. Cheery thoughts there.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on February 26, 2022, 11:27:27 PM
I have to say I have yet to hear a theory about Putin's motives that is satisfactory. That he wants to bring back the USSR is not entirely clear to me, especially since the heads of the USSR were probably not in the most enviable position compared to Putin right now. Whatever his other traits, I've always observed Putin to be concise and clear in his reasoning when asked questions, and at least my impression was that he was a mafioso quite in control of his game. Why he should do something this risky, where the gains are hard to see and the trouble potentially far more than any gains he'll find, is a mystery as far as I'm concerned. Why do this? As a mafioso, going to war is something you'd do when either backed up against a wall, or else when you know you'll get a big payoff. What's the big payoff? Or is his back up against a wall for reasons I'm not aware of? The whole thing is weird. I don't particularly accept that he's just delusional and is making attacks in the outrageous assumption he'll magically take over eastern Europe and be a mighty king.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 27, 2022, 08:41:38 AM
I have to say I have yet to hear a theory about Putin's motives that is satisfactory. That he wants to bring back the USSR is not entirely clear to me, especially since the heads of the USSR were probably not in the most enviable position compared to Putin right now. Whatever his other traits, I've always observed Putin to be concise and clear in his reasoning when asked questions, and at least my impression was that he was a mafioso quite in control of his game. Why he should do something this risky, where the gains are hard to see and the trouble potentially far more than any gains he'll find, is a mystery as far as I'm concerned. Why do this? As a mafioso, going to war is something you'd do when either backed up against a wall, or else when you know you'll get a big payoff. What's the big payoff? Or is his back up against a wall for reasons I'm not aware of? The whole thing is weird. I don't particularly accept that he's just delusional and is making attacks in the outrageous assumption he'll magically take over eastern Europe and be a mighty king.

All wars begin often with miscalculations.  There are plenty to go around here. 

It seems partially obvious that Pooter miscalculated a number of things here. 

1.  The ability of the Russian army and air force as compared to his operations in George and Crimea. 
2. The resistance capable by the Ukrainians.
3. The economic response by NATO.
4. The PR/information ability of TikTok/Twitter to win the information/propaganda fight
5. The leadership of the Ukrainian government

I think that Pooter expected Ukraine to fall within 2-3 days.  I suspect he believed he could move so fast that NATO and the EU would accept the invasion as a fait accomplit and that he would only have to suffer economically for a short while. 

Some things Pooter did get right

1.  NATO would not become involved due to fear of nuclear reprisal
2. That Europe would not shut off the gas. 


The war isn't over yet.  Pooter can still win.  Ukraine can still fall and he can threaten Europe and selected countries can fold under the pressure of invasion or nuclear attack.  So far NATO has shown that they will support a buffer country economically and logistically, but has not been shown that it will risk nuclear war if a member state is invaded. 

Pooter uses military power, audacity, and threat to punch above his weight economically.  The goal is to increase the power and threat of Russia.  Bringing Ukraine back into the fold of Russian hegemony, like Belarus is now, increases his economic and military threat capability.  Consider how much stronger Russia would be with Ukraine fighting for it instead of against it.  His plan is basically to extort Europe.  It's simply a gangster taking more territory to be stronger.  Think Marlo Stansfield. Power and respect is what Pooter believes Russia lost by the dissolution of the USSR.  It's what he wants back.  Hitler was basically of the same mind when it came to "German humiliation" after WWI. 

Power and respect/fear. 

If you went through Russia in the 1990s you probably do have a feeling that the fall of the USSR was bad for Russia.  Russia goes from being a superpower to a "sick man of Europe".  The power and respect of the USSR was tied to it's military capabilities.  He wants to rebuild that.  He's already got Chechnyans fighting for him in  Ukraine.  He wants Ukrainians and Belarusians fighting for him too.  He wants to walk into the room at a summit with the G7/G8 or a EU summit and be the guy everybody is afraid of and bows down to.  That's it. 

That's my theory/take.  I don't think it's terribly complicated.  I think it fits with what other world leaders have said about him. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 27, 2022, 08:54:15 AM
Pooter puts Russian nuclear forces on alert. 

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1497928069922926597?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We are now in the most dangerous phase.  It seems Russia has decided it cannot win the war militarily.  This in itself is something of a miracle and more on that latter.  But this makes Russia all the more dangerous.  If they cannot win military they WILL threaten to win with nukes, or at least keep as much as they can, extort Ukraine, extort NATO.  The gun is being cocked and pointed at NATOs head.  He believes that NATO will give concessions to avoid nuclear war, because his army and air force have failed him. 

Ukraine confirms peace talks with Russia. 


Quote
BREAKING: Ukraine confirms peace talks with Russia today. During a phone call with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Zelensky agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/evacuees-from-occupied-donbas-get-cold-welcome-in-russia/

Russians seem to be out of gas.  I would say no to talks since they're on the ropes, but the Ukrainians don't have much in offensive capabilities either, so it's not like they can take back a bunch of their territory or take advantage of the Russians logistical problems.  The Russians will use any cease fire to rearm, refuel, and try to reinforce with Belarusians.  I don't know how serious the Russian peace proposals will be.  They will obviously try to get as much as they can, but not sure how much they are willing to settle for, because I don't know if the Ukrainians are going to be in a generous mood.  The war is at a tipping point where it is still unclear if anyone can win and both sides suffer additional losses. 


Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on February 27, 2022, 09:02:19 AM
I am still sticking to the China theory. He met with Xi Jinping 3 weeks ago when they signed that military cooperation agreement. Something China has notably not renounced in light of recent events.

I am fully convinced Xi knew this was coming, and that he has intentions on Taiwan. Although the Ukrainian resistance might be giving the PLA pause re: Taiwan.

MSNBC and CNN are running with Putin has lost his mind as it doesn't make sense.. It only doesn't make sense if viewed in isolation, if Taiwan is supposed to be invaded soon, it makes all kinds of sense.

Except people will use Taiwan to say Xi Jinping is insane too. Rather than he is simply desperate to retain power in China, as it looks like a 3 way power struggle for control of the CPC is underway.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 27, 2022, 09:19:52 AM
I am still sticking to the China theory. He met with Xi Jinping 3 weeks ago when they signed that military cooperation agreement. Something China has notably not renounced in light of recent events.

Not sure if Russia or China need each others military cooperation.  The only thing China needs from this is to test the waters to see how the US and NATO reacts.  Xi may be happy to have the Russians go through the door first.  But the US Navy is more than capable of fighting China in the Pacific while the USAF fights the Russians in Europe. 

People like to bitch constantly about how much money we spent on the military.  This is why.  So we can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time. 

Russia gets nothing from this agreement unless your theory is that China attacks Taiwan around the same time and pulls American forces away from Europe.  But that doesn't need to happen.  You just need to read the map and look at the military capabilities of the United States. 

That being said, one thing that hasn't been demonstrated is the American resolve to fight to defend a country that is not part of a mutual defense treaty.  That being said, I think a USN Destroyer transited the Taiwan straight a few days ago, which may have been a message from Grandpa President to China. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 27, 2022, 09:26:15 AM
I'm surprised there isn't more drone warfare.

Not sure if that is big on Russian capabilities.  Starting to see video evidence of Ukrainian UCAV strikes on Russian columns.  I'd seen the video of the damage done earlier and thought it might have been from a regular air strike since the Ukrainian air force was supposedly still flying.  Makes more sense to use the drones in that manner. 

What a mistake it was for Russia to not conduct a successful air campaign first and establish air superiority/supremacy over Ukraine.  The Russian Air Force was supposed to be one of the best parts of the Russian military.  All that *censored* about Su-35s and Su-33s and Su-57s and super missiles and crap.  In the old days generals would have been shot for this kind of failure. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 27, 2022, 10:36:59 AM
I'm watching a video of a crowd of Ukrainians stopping a Russian tank column by standing in the middle of the road.  We're not talking one guy, like in Tiananmen Square.  We're talking an entire crowd of unarmed people.  And the Russians are not moving. 

I'm watching another video of a Ukrainian man removing an anti-vehicle mine from a road with a lit cigarette dangling from his mouth.  I think some people are overestimating the danger here, but not sure that Ukrainian knows that.



I'm trying to wrap my head around the possibility that Ukraine can with this thing without NATO air support.  If you asked me before the war started, as my posts should show, I would have given the Ukrainians <1-1% chance.  Two days I ago I would have given them 1% chance.  Yesterday a 2% chance.  Today something like a 5% chance.  But you can see the trend here. 

I think I'm doing the best to look at the correlation of forces and make an unemotional judgement without favoring Ukraine.  Because emotionally I want Ukraine to win very much, and I don't want what I want to cloud judgement. 

But the other factors are starting to build up.  The Russians have not done anything right.  They have *censored*ed up everything they could possibly have *censored*ed up.  Putting a marching band drum major in charge might have given them better results.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are doing all the important things right and fighting like devils. 

I overestimated the Russian military.  And I'm the guy who has been saying for years that the Russian stuff sucks and their training sucks compared to NATO for years.  I don't think I need to bring receipts concerning my view of the Russian military being *censored*ty.  But Jeez they have *censored*ed up.  Not done anything right. 

The Ukrainians are doing just about everything right.  Even from a purely logical standpoint it might have made sense to abandon the positions in the Donbass and retreat across the Dnieper.  They didn't.  And because of this their morale is still sky high and growing stronger every day.  Russian morale right now must be lower than dirt. 

Saw another post where two Russians went to a Ukrainian gas station when their vehicle went out of fuel.  Promptly arrested/captured.  I mean, WTF?

Some people are lambasting the guys who got this wrong online.  I guess I'm one of them.  But I don't see how anybody could have seen this coming.  I guess Kinzinger did.  He talked years ago back in 2016 on how bad the Russians sucked.  I figured numbers could make up for that, but they can't even do that right. 

I was wrong. 

I don't think it's over, but I was wrong and I have to recognize that if the Ukrainians keep doing what they are doing, and the Russians keep sucking, that the Russians are going to lose.  It's amazing.  The Russians just could not capitalize on their superior forces and make strong gains in the opening rounds.  Every day the Ukrainians are getting stronger. 

But the situation on the ground is leading to a new phase of danger.  Russia losing in a way could be more dangerous than Russia winning.  Now they're threatening nukes.  Their economy is set to be destroyed.  They have been humiliated, and European will to act against Russia also growing daily.  They're *censored*ed, and they're going to do whatever they can to get out of the mess they put themselves in. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 27, 2022, 02:27:58 PM
I thought we didn't have to worry about Russia using nukes, that it would be suicidal?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 27, 2022, 03:00:52 PM
I thought we didn't have to worry about Russia using nukes, that it would be suicidal?

Oh, I haven't changed my opinion that it is a bluff.  Yes, it would be suicidal.  But you see, we're back in the same position.  Pooter says "if you do this, I will nuke you", and some people tend to believe him, or at least believe that the juice is no longer worth the squeeze. 

The initial presumption was:

"Stay out of the war, or I will nuke you"

And the idea was that the juice was not worth the squeeze, simply because Ukraine wasn't in NATO. 

What will be next?

"End all sanctions on Russia, or I will nuke you"
"End NATO military aid to Ukraine, or I will nuke you"
"Do not let Finland and Sweden into NATO, or I will nuke you"

Will the juice be worth the squeeze then? 

Now, I will admit that the risk is never zero, and the consequences of nuclear war are quite heavy.  Maybe the heaviest consequences you can imagine.  It's quite a gamble.  When do you gamble with millions of people's lives?  When can you afford not to?  Different people are going to have different answers.  It's interesting to note that the majority of the voices calling for military intervention by NATO are military or ex-military.  Different set of risk tolerances for different situations than your standard joe or jane.  That's both good and bad. 

Don't pretend that NATO isn't in this war.  We're shipping ass tons of weapons to Ukraine every day.  We're giving them intel.  We're flying surveillance missions daily right over the Polish and Romanian borders.  We're flying drones into the Black Sea.  We're funneling all that stuff to the Ukrainians.  Their defense of Kiev and Kharkiv are not entirely miracles.  The courage of the Ukrainians, that's all theirs and wow, it's no small part.  But NATO is involved.  Pooter knows this.  *censored* isn't going his way and he's probably not happy. 

I'd like to remind everyone that the United States was brought into the Second World War because of an enemy attack that was a response to economic sanctions.  Japan saw the sanctions by the US as interference in Asian affairs, and an attempt to limit their influence and power in the Pacific.  How do you think Pooter sees economic sanctions by the US and EU?  The Japanese saw was as inevitable.  How many talking heads have been spouting BS about "Thucydides Traps" over the last 20 years?  Think Russia and China see things the same way? 

No, I don't think Pooter is going to nuke anybody.  But some people might think he will, or think that the juice is not worth the squeeze, or that the risk/consequences are too high take the risk of confrontation.  That being said, deterrence is all about believability.  We draw our line, Pooter is drawing his.  The right answer is that we shouldn't be drawing the line anywhere except using nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the use of the same.  I understand that the US government and Russian government can't quite come out and say that, but I also know that the US government isn't the one consistently threatening to use them under different circumstances.   

If Pooter decides to detonate a nuke over Greenland, a kind of crazy "warning shot", would people be cowed or infuriated? 

The key here is that Pooter is less likely to resort to nuclear use the more he has to lose.  Pooter is rapidly running out of things to lose.  He's losing his war for Ukraine.  He hasn't lost, but he's losing by virtue of not winning.  Russia's economy is being threatened with destruction.  Any dreams of power and glory and respect and fear are rapidly evaporating.  If he can't have power and glory and respect, maybe he'll settle for fear. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 27, 2022, 03:47:30 PM
Looking at satellite photos showing hundreds of Russian vehicles lining up on roads outside of Kiev, giving every A-10 and Apache pilot in history that looks at them involuntary priapisms.  Even the female ones.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 08:22:01 AM
No changes during the night.  Ukrainian forces still hold Kyiv and major cities. 

Ukrainian delegation led by the Defense Minister and leader of Zelenskyy's "Servant of the People" party have arrived at the border with Belarus for peace talks. 

Good idea.  I honestly suspected that the whole thing was a ploy to kill Zelenskyy.  I guess I don't trust a dude that has been assassinating dissident Russians throughout Europe. 

Z to release Ukrainian prisoners in jail with combat experience to serve on the front lines

Shades of The Dirty Dozen

Russian soldiers offered cryptocurrency for surrendering themselves and their equipment to the Ukrainian Army

I'm unsure of this.  I read a big thread on this last night on this, from some guy who must have been a Ferengi, who suggested offering $20,000 to any Russian who surrendered with a vehicle.  Bonuses for any officer who surrendered with his entire unit.   The math was done and it was figured it would cost $3.6 billion to buy the entire Russian Army in Ukraine.  Turned out to be something of a good deal.  Honestly I think it's somewhat naïve to think that they would decide to live in the west for the rest of their lives on 20 grand, or that getting all their families out would be feasible.  But it's an interesting approach. 

Shares of Russian's largest state owned bank drop 68%

Russia's economy will crater today.  Runs on banks starting.  It's going to get interesting in Russia.  Not sure if the Oligarchs can really do anything.  It would be up to the Russian Army.  Wouldn't be the first time. 

Russian defenders of Snake Island confirmed alive

Honestly, I think the Russians have been showing a bunch of restraint, especially their officers. 





Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 28, 2022, 08:49:54 AM
The restraint makes sense. The more family members you kill, the more you get insurgency motivated by revenge. Your alternative is mass genocide. Which is something being watched carefully. One retired general suggested the only way to take Kyiv with the amount of armed people there willing to resist is to demolish it. Wholesale bombing could kill a lot of people, I reckon, if the Russians employ an Aleppo strategy. I think there are probably enough residents who are Russian, are pro Russian, or have ties to people in Russia for that to be very palatable. Plus, the Russians aren't going to be able to rebuild infrastructure when they are dead broke, which is a bad look for your puppet government in their capital city. We may be talking about the siege of Kyiv. And an entirely different kind of humanitarian crisis. Modern cities can't last long cut off from the outside world.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 09:07:54 AM
The restraint makes sense.

This may be changing.  Snake Island was early on.  I'm reading reports of cluster munition artillery being used on Kharkiv.  Not sure if they've been used on Kyiv yet, but we know they have the equipment and we know they have been lining stuff up for a big push into the capitol. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 28, 2022, 10:18:34 AM
I'm sure they'll use the equipment, and they will target civilian infrastructure. But I think it will be more as a threat than saturating the city. I don't think we're going to see them go full Dresden on them though they are more than capable. Just precision strikes on all the water treatment facilities would work from a strictly tactical perspective, don't you think?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 11:26:06 AM
I'm sure they'll use the equipment, and they will target civilian infrastructure. But I think it will be more as a threat than saturating the city. I don't think we're going to see them go full Dresden on them though they are more than capable. Just precision strikes on all the water treatment facilities would work from a strictly tactical perspective, don't you think?

I don't know.  I think food is already being cut off in many areas. But the video I've seen generally confirms the use of cluster munitions against apartment complexes.  I don't know if this is indiscriminate, as some people have suggested, or if it was a Ukrainian Army strong point. 

I don't think they have real precision strike capabilities.  Not at American/NATO levels.  US Army FISTers can guide a single copperhead artillery round into a mailbox from 20K.  I don't think the Russians have that capability.  I don't even know if their artillery or air force has forward controllers or support teams.  I read that they didn't but it wasn't anything official. 

I think pressure from above is driving this change in tactics.  Not sure if their international perception could get much worse, practically.  Not sure if they could actually cause a greater amount of civilian resistance.  That seems to be a max level already.  But I bet plenty of generals are getting their asses chewed and *censored* rolls downhill in all armies. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 28, 2022, 11:58:47 AM
Dresden killed 30,000 according to mid range estimates. So far, international observers are suggesting civilian deaths in Kyiv to be in the low hundreds. Depending on your definition of indiscriminate or widespread, it is or it isn't.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 12:26:18 PM
Depending on your definition of indiscriminate or widespread, it is or it isn't.

To me, "indiscriminate" means that you're not even aiming at any sort of target with military significance.  Personnel, infrastructure, or equipment.  You just point your weapons downrange where there are people and pull the trigger.  I can't say if that is what is happening now.  I can only say that there seems to have been a change so that they're actually using their indirect fires and air capability in a way that I had believed they would have on hardened military targets on day1 of an air campaign.  It's possible that Ivan just didn't have the recon capabilities that the United States has.  I'm used to the DIA and NRO having photos of every square inch of every enemy unit down to foot length for every unit commander before starting a war.  They don't even seem to have any CAS communication capabilities.  But I don't know.  Most of the information we get is pro-Ukrainian.  We're not getting a bunch of information that shows Russian successes or Ukrainian defeats, unless it involves border guards telling a Russian cruiser to "go *censored* themselves".  Their words, not mine. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on February 28, 2022, 01:54:57 PM
An Anonymous account reported earlier today that the hacking collective’s #OpRussia campaign had taken down more than 300 Russian government, state media and bank websites over the past 48 hours, with the majority of those struggling to come back online.

Interesting. I imagine Western state actors could use this as cover, just like the Russians have blamed independent hackers for their state actions.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on February 28, 2022, 02:20:40 PM
An Anonymous account reported earlier today that the hacking collective’s #OpRussia campaign had taken down more than 300 Russian government, state media and bank websites over the past 48 hours, with the majority of those struggling to come back online.

Interesting. I imagine Western state actors could use this as cover, just like the Russians have blamed independent hackers for their state actions.

Cyber may be the one area we aren't afraid to unleash our arsenal on Russia. I think we'll know for sure if the power starts going off in Russia and oil and gas pipelines quit working.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 28, 2022, 03:14:32 PM
Maybe I'm too optimistic but I don't see how Putin stays in power after this shameful fiasco.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 28, 2022, 03:21:47 PM
I had wondered about this and it's good to see it happening. I was tempted but I got shot down by a spousal barrage.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akvyq4/russian-ukraine-invasion-foreign-fighters-battalion


"He told VICE World News that Zelenskyy’s call for foreigners to come and join the ranks of a newly-formed “International Brigade” of Ukraine’s armed forces had led to a surge of volunteers signing up to join the fight. Among those who had signed up since Zelenskyy’s appeal were an estimated 70 from the UK and 50 from the US, he said.

In the prior three weeks of escalating aggression from Russia, about 200 foreign fighters had joined up, he said.

“They want to fight for freedom and they want to fight for democratic values,” he said."

-----------------------------------------------------------------

You know this isn't the time or the place for negativity but...

One does have to wonder if Afghanistan could have been held against the Taliban if the Afghan army and people had showed even a fraction of the courage and determination we're seeing in Ukraine.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on February 28, 2022, 03:33:41 PM
I wonder how well those fighters from other countries will do with out the support of their local army, including technical and physical support.  I mean the US guys can not take the special weapons and gear with them, can they?  Now I can see it working if they have been trained on equipment supplied by the US to Ukraine.

Not that these people volunteering is not a good thing, I am just not sure how much it can help. They do not know the land and probably not the language.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on February 28, 2022, 03:53:30 PM
Quote
Maybe I'm too optimistic but I don't see how Putin stays in power after this shameful fiasco.

Putin is a very calculating so I wouldn't be surprised he he hangs on.

There is a troubling story that Putin likes to tell about a lesson he learned as a young boy about a rat you cornered in his apartment.  The lesson learned when cornered attack. 
Did Putin feel cornered and so attacked Ukraine?

If Putin fails in the Ukraine and is threatened with loss of power how far would he go?  I wish I could believe that he cared about the Russian people or even his legacy. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 04:00:25 PM
I wonder how well those fighters from other countries will do with out the support of their local army, including technical and physical support.  I mean the US guys can not take the special weapons and gear with them, can they?  Now I can see it working if they have been trained on equipment supplied by the US to Ukraine.

They're only taking people with previous combat experience, and they're probably narrowing those guys down too. 

Most of the people that I have heard were accepted and they're shipping out are ex SOF.  Cac, those guys probably got most of their own gear anyways because... they're vet-bros or are just professional mercs/fighters. 

As to anybody else, they may be able to shoehorn them in somewhere.  Worse comes to worse, they hand you an AK-47, a full magazine, and tell you to follow this person and do what they say.  You can't understand your NCO?  They will make themselves understood, I'm sure.  You will learn when they yell something particular that they are talking to you, then they will point to where they want you to go, and you will go. 

They probably have some people who speak English.  They're just about everywhere.  They might put them in charge. 

Teaching the use of technical equipment might be difficult, but you'll be surprised what you can learn from watching.  Want to drive a BDRM-2?  Watch this.  Hit these switches, push this button, press down on the clutch, put it into gear, go.  This is the word for forward.  This is the word for stop.  This is the word for right.  This is the word for left.  This is the word for back.  This is the word for faster.  This is the word for slow down.   If you have combat or military experience, you already understand the underlying theories. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 28, 2022, 04:05:08 PM
I had thought about that too insofar as you could probably get better weapons at your local gun shop than some of what the Ukrainians are fighting with. I could be mistaken about that but I did hear the Mexican police and military concerned with the guns they are up against with the cartels, guns that the cartels got from basically American gun shops, including ones that have armor piercing rounds the police and even military don't have any good way of stopping. I imagine if you're willing to pay enough, you can buy better sniper rifles that what the Ukrainians are using too. I wondered about how one of these American militia groups you see running around out in the woods would do over there against the Russians. I don't know but it'd make a helluva reality tv show.

As for Putin one has to hope that if it comes down to it and he decides to go nuclear there are some people near him that have a plan in place to quash that insanity before it lifts off. They may even be reaching the limit of their tolerance already if they have any sense at all. This went totally off the rails and there's no way for Russia to win, even if they can still do so militarily, they have just about the entire world against them in every other way like I don't think we've ever seen before.

Ukraine is right that this isn't just about Ukraine. There is so much more than that at stake here and everyone understands it. Even if it was just about Ukraine, that alone would still be enough, but since it's so much deeper there is no way the people of the world will let this stand.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 04:05:53 PM
Putin is a very calculating so I wouldn't be surprised he he hangs on.

Looking at the history of Russia, I don't think this ends with him alive.  But no doubt he's not an easy target for a coup. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on February 28, 2022, 04:12:38 PM
Ok lets say a coup happens and Putin is out.  Do you think that helps Biden and hurts Trump? Just curious with all the Biden bashing coming from some on the right, especially Trump, and the support of the MTG and Gozars at the AFPAC  where attendees were cheering Putin.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 04:22:08 PM
Ok lets say a coup happens and Putin is out.  Do you think that helps Biden and hurts Trump? Just curious with all the Biden bashing coming from some on the right, especially Trump, and the support of the MTG and Gozars at the AFPAC  where attendees were cheering Putin.

Jeezis,  I don't know.  I'm not even thinking about that kind of stuff right now. 

That's one hell of a hypothetical.  Hypothetically speaking if Putin is removed and we manage not to get into a nuclear war I'll be too happy to care. 

Might as well ask how the sky raining down chocolate bars would affect domestic politics.  It has about the same chance of occurring as me sleeping with Rihanna.  OK, maybe a better chance, but  they're both statistically unlikely. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on February 28, 2022, 04:28:27 PM
"You can't understand your NCO?  They will make themselves understood, I'm sure."

 Something like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URNOsr7nQRQ

"When you understand the language sir everything falls into place."
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on February 28, 2022, 04:29:38 PM
Cherry, you surprise me sometimes.  That was funny as hell.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on February 28, 2022, 08:03:29 PM
Seeing some really weird videos of entire unit of Russian BDRMs abandoned near Sumy.  Like mass desertion. 

Huge Russian convoys still being spotted by satellite moving south from Belarus towards Keev. 

Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria giving Ukrainian Air Force their MiG-29s.  All of them.  Think they already picked them up from Poland and have flown them back. 

UK warns it's soldiers not to leave to fight in Ukraine, lol. 

Zelenskyy asks again for NATO no-fly zone.  The whole "no-fly zone" is BS.  It's a way to pretend we're not getting involved when we are.  I'm in favor of NATO getting involved in the air, but not bull*censored*ting about it. 

Musk sends Starlink stations to Ukraine.  Gives the country free access to internet.  Gets there in a day.  Reinforces the Ukrainians internet. 

Cease-fire talks inconclusive.  Ukraine demanding Russia withdraws completely from Ukrainian territory, including Donbass and Crimea. 

Russian foreign ministry says that countries supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine will be held responsible and the measures taken by the EU will be met with a harsh response. 

Shall and BP divest from Gazprom.  Russian oil and gas industry heavily reliant on western skill, equipment, and knowledge, from what I have read. 

FIFA kicks Russia from world cup. 

Swiss abandon traditional neutrality and adopted EU sanctions against Russia. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 01, 2022, 08:41:31 AM
All these pictures of Russian armor bumper to bumper on roads. I'm no military tactician, but this seems wrong. When you need an assist from Belarus, that's also not a good sign.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 01, 2022, 10:23:57 AM
All these pictures of Russian armor bumper to bumper on roads. I'm no military tactician, but this seems wrong. When you need an assist from Belarus, that's also not a good sign.

It is wrong.  It makes columns very vulnerable to air and artillery attack. 

The flip side to this is that when you're trying to shove that much equipment down a single road, that is what is going to happen.  They could spread out, but the line would stretch all the way back to Belarus.  Also, the threat from Ukrainian artillery and air attack is limited. 

In this kind of situation, you need to do a good job coordinating your route.  Something goes wrong and you have a traffic jam just like this.  You need to have multiple routes instead of a single one.  Sometimes this is not available, sometimes the planning is not good enough. 


I've heard about Belarus entering the war, but I havn't heard of Belarussian forces actually crossing the border yet. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 01, 2022, 10:31:54 AM
If this were a book, the Ukrainians would have mined the road to fare-thee-well or have artillery pre-sighted on the road or NATO would show up at the last minute and wreck the column without causing a nuclear war.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 01, 2022, 10:45:28 AM
https://www.newsweek.com/eu-ukraine-fighter-jet-promise-falling-apart-russia-advances-slovakia-poland-bulgaria-1683588

NATO countries going back on giving Ukrainians their MiG-29s. 

I don't know what is involved in this decision.  I think the result is rotten, but maybe there is something I'm not understanding.  But my initial read on this is that Pooter's nuclear sabre rattling worked to spook Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. 

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/03/01/poland-says-it-will-not-send-jets-to-ukraine/

Apparently it's ok to give the Ukrainians anti-tank missiles and MANPADs, but not aircraft.  Wouldn't want to upset Pooter.  Probably going to stop giving them the missiles soon too.  Pooter can threaten nuclear escalation and get whatever he wants.  Next will be a Russian nuclear weapons/ballistic missile test. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 01, 2022, 10:55:56 AM
If this were a book, the Ukrainians would have mined the road to fare-thee-well or have artillery pre-sighted on the road or NATO would show up at the last minute and wreck the column without causing a nuclear war.

Mines have gone out of favor in the west due to problems of leaving explosives laying around for years for kids to play with. 

I don't think the Ukrainians ever had a bunch of artillery.  It would have been a secondary critical target for the Russian Air Force, but I don't think Ivan ever took care of their primary targets, so...

I don't think NATO is going to show up.  There is always a chance that some European country goes rogue and says "*censored* it" and enters the conflict without NATO approval.  The only country I see maybe doing that would be the UK.  They're far enough back to not have to worry about Russian counter-attack.  Boris Johnson is... well he's Boris Johnson.  I think sometimes telling the EU to "get bent" makes them happy.  Maybe their not terribly worried about nuclear escalation.  I mean, what is Pooter going to do?  Nuke London?  Aberdeen?  The Brits will nuke him back with their subs. The flip side to that is that the UK doesn't have any bases nearby and Poland and Romania isn't going to let them use theirs to launch attacks into Ukraine.  They won't even let the UK use their airspace for it. 

Definitely not a story. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 01, 2022, 11:40:57 AM
Mines have gone out of favor in the west due to problems of leaving explosives laying around for years for kids to play with. 

I wasn't thinking of the typical step on them and the explode mines but remotely detonated bombs. There are so many problems with it that in a book I'd paper over.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 01, 2022, 03:51:36 PM
The world makes me sad  :(
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 01, 2022, 04:10:44 PM
Quote
"We are supporting Ukrainians with humanitarian aid. However, we are not going to send any jets to the Ukrainian airspace," said Mr Duda, dismissing claims that dozens were coming. His response did not appear to answer suggestions that Ukrainian pilots could take control of the fighter jets in Poland.

Are they loopholing things here? We didn't GIVE them fighters, we LOANED them. Or maybe they STOLE them. They've been MISPLACED, Vladimir, that's all.

Quote
“We are not going to send any jets into Ukrainian airspace,” said Duda, who did not indicate if Poland was considering an aircraft transfer over land, or who else might be delivering them.

We'll just fly them over to the border and let them roll downhill, see?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 01, 2022, 05:14:12 PM
The maintenance techs who forgot the aircraft wheel chocks again are going to get a very stern talking to.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 01, 2022, 07:20:14 PM
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1

Quote
Russian forces are receiving needed supplies and reinforcements that may facilitate much more rapid and effective operations in the coming 24-72 hours. The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized, however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters. The initial errors in the Russian force composition and organization in Belarus and western Russia that ISW has previously reported on, which contributed to Russian logistical and operational failures around Kyiv, will be difficult to remedy quickly and will likely continue to cause friction and reduce the effectiveness of Russian operations even as supply issues are addressed and reinforcements come into the fight. It remains too early to evaluate the likely effective combat power the added Russian troops will bring.

Quote
Key Takeaways

Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open up a new axis of attack from the east that would let them encircle the capital. It is unclear if Russia has sufficient combat power to complete such an encirclement and hold it against Ukrainian counter-attacks.
Russian forces will likely launch a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.
Russian and Russian proxy forces will likely solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-Don with Crimea, allowing Russian forces to move more rapidly from Rostov to reinforce efforts further west.
Russia’s successful seizure of Kherson city may allow Russian forces to resume their interrupted drive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.
Belarusian forces have likely entered the war on Russia’s side despite denials by the Belarusian president.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 01, 2022, 07:25:25 PM
If this were a book, the Ukrainians would have mined the road to fare-thee-well or have artillery pre-sighted on the road or NATO would show up at the last minute and wreck the column without causing a nuclear war.

Mines have gone out of favor in the west due to problems of leaving explosives laying around for years for kids to play with.

To such an extent I think the US is the only member of NATO not party to the treaty banning their use in warfare, mostly because of the Korean DMZ.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 01, 2022, 07:31:48 PM
Ah, the giant brains working in the Biden Admin.

Republicans and some Democrats: We need to do something to reduce the US reliance on Russian Oil during this crises.

Biden Admin: The ultimate solution is the get the Global Economy off of oil.

Republicans and some Democrats: That's great... But we need something with a more immediate time horizon. Like, loosen up restrictions on domestic oil exploration and allow the Keystone XL pipeline to be completed?

Biden Admin: Those solutions would take months/years to carry out.

Republicans: And the "we'll fix it with 'green energy'" will implement more quickly?

Russians: So the sanctions being imposed against us have a time limit that can be measured in months?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 01, 2022, 08:36:44 PM
Russians: So the sanctions being imposed against us have a time limit that can be measured in months?

STOP USING OIL. The end. We could have been weaning ourselves from it for years not by producing more, but by adding taxes in line with what Europe did, but no we had to be greedy little boys and girls. This goes way back, its not a Biden administration thing. Maybe this will be the catalyst. Maybe if gas prices go up 30%, we can get our national fleet converted much faster. Of course the US doesn't really import Russian oil in the first place, so its really a question of European resolve, but Germany looks like they are settling in. Let things cost more, bite the bullet, don't demolish Alaskan wilderness to suckle just a little longer at the fossil fuel teat.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 01, 2022, 08:40:53 PM
Russians: So the sanctions being imposed against us have a time limit that can be measured in months?

STOP USING OIL. The end. We could have been weaning ourselves from it for years not by producing more, but by adding taxes in line with what Europe did, but no we had to be greedy little boys and girls. This goes way back, its not a Biden administration thing. Maybe this will be the catalyst. Maybe if gas prices go up 30%, we can get our national fleet converted much faster. Of course the US doesn't really import Russian oil in the first place, so its really a question of European resolve, but Germany looks like they are settling in. Let things cost more, bite the bullet, don't demolish Alaskan wilderness to suckle just a little longer at the fossil fuel teat.

I personally think this line of reasoning is a red herring. The Western world is not reliant on Russia for oil. In fact the Saudi/Russia oil wars that have been going on for quite a while are based in the idea of Saudi (aka petrodollar) oil supremacy, where that nasty Syria kept getting in the way. I expect that at least part of this long-term reasoning was to put Russia in its place even if that meant propping up Wahhabi extremists. Putin on the other hand was obviously trying to develop his own infrastructure to get Russian oil into Europe. But the entire idea behind the U.S./Saudi/Israel plan was to use Saudi oil for that immediate region, with U.S. and Canadian oil being part of the mix (and no doubt some other third world countries), but with Russian oil excluded. Otherwise the plan makes no sense. A corollary of this is that the Western world should in principle be absolutely fine without Russian oil, even putting aside the notion of finding alternative fuel sources.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 01, 2022, 09:02:27 PM
The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021.

That's just over 670 thousand barrels of oil per day being imported from Russia into the United States. It amounted to roughly 8% of US Oil imports in 2021 according to the US Energy Department. It also marked a 24% increase over imports from 2020. Thanks ObamaJoe Biden?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 01, 2022, 09:12:05 PM
The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021.

That's just over 670 thousand barrels of oil per day being imported from Russia into the United States. It amounted to roughly 8% of US Oil imports in 2021 according to the US Energy Department. It also marked a 24% increase over imports from 2020. Thanks ObamaJoe Biden?

Yes but that's just where the market sits right now. It's not an indication of necessity but of convenience. Last I recall in the fracking sphere the reality was that fracking was developing such oil resources that in fact it blew a hole in the "Earth is almost out of oil" theory. You might recall the frequent countdowns of "20 years until the human race runs of out oil" alarmism that made the rounds every five years or so. Not that I'm versed in the fracking controversy in terms of the issue of whether in fact it does permanent damage to certain areas or not. I'm not into that science on that. But all that to say I highly doubt that without Russian oil the West would have some kind of problem. All 'oil emergencies' do is give the cartels a chance to jack the prices up claiming emergency and leave them at that level forever.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 02, 2022, 08:47:10 AM
The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021.

That's just over 670 thousand barrels of oil per day being imported from Russia into the United States. It amounted to roughly 8% of US Oil imports in 2021 according to the US Energy Department. It also marked a 24% increase over imports from 2020. Thanks ObamaJoe Biden?

Thanks free market
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 02, 2022, 08:49:42 AM
If you allow more drilling, what do you think happens? The excess just builds up somewhere? No, more expensive ways to get oil cease production over time. Or, extra oil lowers prices and spurs even greater consumption.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 09:06:56 AM
I see the Republican talking points are out after the SOTU last night.  Good to know they're still out there. 

I wanted to watch the great prayer, but I've been exhausted from staying up too late so I took a break.  From some comments from people I listen to, I understand the speech started off strong on Russia/Ukraine, but then dissolved into pet domestic projects that nobody really cared about except (apparently) Grandpa President and special interests.  But I don't think I can have a real opinion yet.  To me the tone is the most important, and the starting and ending mantras.  It's unfortunate that the high prayer of the SOTU can no longer achieve it's primary function of bringing together Americans with Civil Religion, due to the high partisanship. 

I understand Boobear and SpaceLazer were classy as usual.  Good to see the Trumpy wing being represented. 

I don't know enough about Russian oil.  I don't understand how we can still be importing it if we're cutting ties to Russian banks, etc.  I agree we should not be paying Russia for oil.  I agree we can increase domestic production somewhat and import more from OPEC, but it will cost more.  Gas prices are already high.  Frakking has helped this in the past.  More nuclear plants.  But getting off the "oil teat" is impossible right now. 

Kind of off topic.  I would have started another thread on the SOTU, but I understand how Russian oil connects to the war.  But other than that, it's off topic. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on March 02, 2022, 09:11:18 AM
There is this thing called 'an economy' - when it is doing crappy, say in the middle of a badly handled pandemic - oil imports go down, when the economy improves - say when a new President improves the handling of the pandemic - the imports go up.

Also oil is 'fungible' that means, that if one supplier cuts production - say Saudi Arabia in response to threats from a President, the oil from other suppliers goes up, say Russia.

So Trump threatened Saudi Arabia, decreasing their oil production, and exports to the US - increasing imports from Russia.  Biden got wide spread vaccination, causing a major economic recovery.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 01:05:16 PM
Turkey sends more TB-2 drones to Ukraine

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30352-ukraine-says-it-received-new-batch-of-bayraktars-from-turkey

Just so I understand the rules, drones are ok, but MiG-29s are not. 

I mean, I still don't know what went into the decision.  It would be nice for some clarification. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 02, 2022, 01:11:00 PM
Turkey sends more TB-2 drones to Ukraine

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30352-ukraine-says-it-received-new-batch-of-bayraktars-from-turkey

Just so I understand the rules, drones are ok, but MiG-29s are not. 

I mean, I still don't know what went into the decision.  It would be nice for some clarification.

Turkey is further from Russian tanks and planes???
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 02, 2022, 02:10:10 PM
Turkey sends more TB-2 drones to Ukraine

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30352-ukraine-says-it-received-new-batch-of-bayraktars-from-turkey

Just so I understand the rules, drones are ok, but MiG-29s are not. 

I mean, I still don't know what went into the decision.  It would be nice for some clarification.

It's really like any escalation. There's no reason why javelins are okay and fighters not either. Except one is more provocative than the other. Not sure how Russia feels about the difference.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 02:10:19 PM
Turkey is further from Russian tanks and planes???

I find it more likely that Erdogan just doesn't give a F and he doesn't have to deal with any resistance at home.  He's my favorite bloodthirsty evil dictator.  Turkey already shot down a Russian Su-24 back in 2015 when it got a little too close in Syria.  I think of all NATO countries, they are the least scared of Pooter.  Turkey also closed the Bosphorus/Dardanelles to Russian warships a few days ago.  Ballsy move.  I didn't think it was going to happen. 

I think that dictators, as a rule, don't like other dictators.  Hopefully this keeps Russian cooperation with China down to a minimum. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 02, 2022, 02:12:51 PM
Meanwhile you can still rent an AirBnB in Kyiv. #1 question, does your building still exist?

 (https://www.airbnb.com/s/Kyiv--Ukraine/homes?tab_id=home_tab&refinement_paths%5B%5D=%2Fhomes&flexible_trip_dates%5B%5D=april&flexible_trip_dates%5B%5D=march&flexible_trip_lengths%5B%5D=weekend_trip&date_picker_type=calendar&query=Kyiv%2C%20Ukraine&place_id=ChIJBUVa4U7P1EAR_kYBF9IxSXY&checkin=2022-03-18&checkout=2022-03-21&source=structured_search_input_header&search_type=autocomplete_click[/url)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 02:27:55 PM
It's really like any escalation. There's no reason why javelins are okay and fighters not either. Except one is more provocative than the other. Not sure how Russia feels about the difference.

Russia doesn't like any of it.  Hence the threat by raising their nuclear alert level.  That was it.  Puffer Fish. 

The only difference is how much it effects the outcome of the war.  The bigger the effect, the more Pooter won't like it.  NATO air support?  Russia is finished.  They know that.  Maybe they think that they can still win with every country in the universe giving them drones and javelins, but he should be figuring out by this point that his entire Army is being systematically ground down fighting a single country. 

The largest deployment of the US Army in recent times was for the 1st Gulf War, where the Army deployed roughly 50% of it's forces (but maybe a greater degree of it's actually combat power, since many of the divisions that were not deployed were Light Infantry), which coincided with the largest standing mechanized army that it faced.  It would be like a large portion of that combat power being eroded over a week. 

He's either figured it our or will soon that the current level of NATO involvement will already cost him way more than the juice is worth.  But he's stuck in a sunken cost problem now and the only thing worse for him than winning is losing.  The nuclear sabre rattling has probably only begun.  I won't be surprised if he starts putting units on alert near the Baltics or Finland as well.  Just to raise the pressure. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 02, 2022, 03:00:43 PM
...
He's either figured it our or will soon that the current level of NATO involvement will already cost him way more than the juice is worth.  But he's stuck in a sunken cost problem now and the only thing worse for him than winning is losing.  The nuclear sabre rattling has probably only begun.  I won't be surprised if he starts putting units on alert near the Baltics or Finland as well.  Just to raise the pressure.

That's the scary thing, losing makes Russia look weak and Putin would hate that.

I wonder if NATO will give expedited admission to Sweden and Finland? I can't imagine either country wanting to delay after what happened to Ukraine. Get in before Russia starts putting troops on your border and hopefully avoid the bloodshed.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 02, 2022, 03:02:55 PM
I imagine Taiwan is going to be upping their defense budget as well. Although the Russian struggles are probably putting a wet blanket on China's asperations of a quick amphibious landing to overrun the island.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 02, 2022, 03:13:19 PM
Putin says he is sees Nato as a security threat even though one could argue that Noto countries desire for economic growth and don't see military aggression as conducive to that growth.
Globalization has made the idea of War economically unsustainable IMO. The West experience in Afghanistan and Iraq has I think proven that. Invasion is hard and failure long-term likely.

I suspect that the ratio of attack of 3 to 1 isn't true anymore when it come to a determine resistance and a thousand dollar weapon can take out a million dollar one.
Traditional War as a way to archive ones dominance no longer makes sense - if it ever did


 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 02, 2022, 03:31:01 PM
One promising development if it's true is the mass surrenders by Russian troops. Some may be surrendering when they run out of fuel but I'd like to believe that most of them are good human beings who while they would fight to the death to defend their country see this invasion for exactly what it is and are not willing to fight to the death when they clearly see that they are the oppressors and are being given orders to commit war crimes and crimes against humanity in purposefully targeting civilians. Soldiers who surrender rather than perpetrate atrocities are heroes. If they can't go home after that hopefully some system can be set up so they can get asylum.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 03:43:44 PM
I wonder if NATO will give expedited admission to Sweden and Finland? I can't imagine either country wanting to delay after what happened to Ukraine. Get in before Russia starts putting troops on your border and hopefully avoid the bloodshed.

I think that is the best move and I would like that.  But it's possible NATO would hold back granting admission to either because Pooter has said it would be "provocative", etc.  I.E., NATO refuses to let either into NATO because they don't want to start a war with Russia.  Basically how this war with Ukraine started.  But NATO this week is not NATO from last week.  Or the last 30 years.  A bunch has changed. 

Worst case scenario is that Russia eventually wins in Ukraine then decides to attack or threaten a NATO country in return for dropping sanctions against Russia.  Japan attacked the United States because of sanctions for invading China.  The goal of Pooter in Ukraine was to win so quickly that NATO never had a chance to sanction Russia before it was fait accomplit and demoralize the west. 
He may think he can achieve the same thing with some kind of limited nuclear attack on NATO.  Or maybe he's not that silly. 


Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 02, 2022, 03:49:05 PM
I wonder if NATO will give expedited admission to Sweden and Finland? I can't imagine either country wanting to delay after what happened to Ukraine. Get in before Russia starts putting troops on your border and hopefully avoid the bloodshed.

I think that is the best move and I would like that.  But it's possible NATO would hold back granting admission to either because Pooter has said it would be "provocative", etc.  I.E., NATO refuses to let either into NATO because they don't want to start a war with Russia.  Basically how this war with Ukraine started.  But NATO this week is not NATO from last week.  Or the last 30 years.  A bunch has changed. 

Worst case scenario is that Russia eventually wins in Ukraine then decides to attack or threaten a NATO country in return for dropping sanctions against Russia.  Japan attacked the United States because of sanctions for invading China.  The goal of Pooter in Ukraine was to win so quickly that NATO never had a chance to sanction Russia before it was fait accomplit and demoralize the west. 
He may think he can achieve the same thing with some kind of limited nuclear attack on NATO.  Or maybe he's not that silly.

Worst case may be he doesn't win in Ukraine and decides to detonate a nuke in Kyiv to teach anyone who dares oppose him a lesson.

I think the plan was listening to overly optimistic war planners who said they could win in hours or a few days with a big first strike. Quick enough to make sanctions and other actions from outside Ukraine not effective.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 02, 2022, 03:52:11 PM
By the time this is done, Putin isn't going to have an army left to threaten anyone with. He can always wave his nukes around but there's a very sharp limit to what you can get with that due to MAD.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 03:57:06 PM
I imagine Taiwan is going to be upping their defense budget as well. Although the Russian struggles are probably putting a wet blanket on China's asperations of a quick amphibious landing to overrun the island.

Ehh.  China isn't Russia.  I think they're telling themselves that as well, every day.  And Taiwan isn't Ukraine. 

To have any chance at all, the Chinese would have to blast Taiwan in the first hour of the war.  I think they know that.  And I think they wouldn't have any problem doing it.  I don't think the Chinese are going to be as squeemish about going out of the gate full blast when the bell rings.  But then again, I thought the same about Russia. 

I'm hopeful that Taiwan increases it's spending on defense, but they key to that is the Taiwanese people.  American posturing in terms of deterrence has the exact opposite desired effect when it comes to the people of Taiwan wanting to spend more on the military or start conscription.  The more the United States signals China that they would intervene, in order to deter war, the more the Taiwanese pick up on this and figure they don't need to spend more money on defense because America will come to their rescue. 

The reality is that if Taiwan doesn't have stronger air defenses, and stronger ground units able to hold Taipei against amphibious attack, there will not be a Taiwan to come and rescue.  But it is a real catch-22. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 04:21:57 PM
Globalization has made the idea of War economically unsustainable IMO. The West experience in Afghanistan and Iraq has I think proven that. Invasion is hard and failure long-term likely.

I wouldn't say that.  Both the initial invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq were extremely successful for the United States, especially when you consider the disaster that is happening in Ukraine. 

Invasion itself wasn't the problem, but "nation building" or "occupation" was. 

The United States never faced the kind of economic sanctions that Russia is now facing.  The United States had many allies with it when invading both countries. 

The government set up by the United States in Iraq is still extant.  It is one of the more liberal Islamic democracies in the middle east. 

Unfortunately the government set up in Afghanistan fell to the Taliban after the United States and allies departed the country.  This failure was not destined or unavoidable, but was a choice made by the government of the United States. 

Quote
Traditional War as a way to archive ones dominance no longer makes sense - if it ever did

I think there may be some mistaken lessons taken from the current war in Ukraine.  First, Russia can still win and get what it wants.  It would just take a lot longer.  Two, we've been very fortunate in the Russian's military incompetence, the Ukrainian's courage, and Europe waking from it's slumber.  None of these should be taken as given.  It could have gone Pooter's way.  The United States could have taken a different tack.  There are plenty of people in the states that still support Russia in this. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 02, 2022, 04:24:17 PM
By the time this is done, Putin isn't going to have an army left to threaten anyone with. He can always wave his nukes around but there's a very sharp limit to what you can get with that due to MAD.

So far, it's getting Pooter what he wants.  The only thing keeping Europe and the United States from intervening in Ukraine is "WORLD WAR III!!!!".  The difference is that it is costing him way more than he bargained for and he hasn't won yet.  But he hasn't lost yet either. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 02, 2022, 04:49:29 PM
I take your point - "invasion itself wasn't the problem, but "nation building" or "occupation" was."

the lessons I learned from the wars in the last 20 years is the conventional forces on their own don't get the job done when their is sustained resistance. Even if you win you lose in the long occupation.

What does Putin gain by winning in Ukraine?   Is Russia better off, more secure? I don't see it. Even if everything had gone Putin's way and he re-gained the Warsaw Pack?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 02, 2022, 05:01:31 PM
So far, it's getting Pooter what he wants.  The only thing keeping Europe and the United States from intervening in Ukraine is "WORLD WAR III!!!!".  The difference is that it is costing him way more than he bargained for and he hasn't won yet.  But he hasn't lost yet either.

It hasn't gotten him what he wants yet and even if he keeps Ukraine, he's not going to be able to take anywhere else.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 03, 2022, 09:18:01 PM
Worst case scenario is that Russia eventually wins in Ukraine then decides to attack or threaten a NATO country in return for dropping sanctions against Russia.  Japan attacked the United States because of sanctions for invading China.  The goal of Pooter in Ukraine was to win so quickly that NATO never had a chance to sanction Russia before it was fait accomplit and demoralize the west. 
He may think he can achieve the same thing with some kind of limited nuclear attack on NATO.  Or maybe he's not that silly.

I think the goal/expectation was for Ukraine to roll over much like they did in 2014. He gets his fait accompli, and off of that success while the West protests in impotent rage, China takes that as their cue to invade Taiwan.

Only Ukraine didn't roll over as expected. Fait accompli may still happen, but not in the timeframe he hoped for. China might still take it as their cue to go after Taiwan (in a "we'll either hang together, or hang separately" type deal) if only to try to show how they've better at this whole invasion thing than either the Russians or the Americans(they've stolen so much of our tech/stuff after all)

Except some of the reporting now going on is that the Russian forces are evidently having problems with dry rot in the tires of their vehicles... So many of their tires came from guess where? China.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 03, 2022, 09:22:37 PM
Worst case may be he doesn't win in Ukraine and decides to detonate a nuke in Kyiv to teach anyone who dares oppose him a lesson.

Doubtful. Him nuking Kyiv, even in spite, would be like an American nuking Boston, Times Square in NYC, or nuking Pearl Harbor.

It's part of why Putin wants to conquer Ukraine and why Russians have had such a close relationship with Ukraine in the past. Many of Russia's earliest cultural touchstones exist in Ukraine, and in Kyiv specifically.

That isn't to say nukes couldn't be used in Ukraine. Just that the target options are probably not the first places you'd think of.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 05, 2022, 03:29:35 PM
Still sad to see that the Biden Admin is having to be drug, kicking and screaming, into doing something about the Russian Oil Imports and lack of sanctions on them. Smartest dumb people in the room slow walking the world into a Great Powers Conflict because they're conducting global geopolitics with all the skill of Mr. Magoo, but with worse luck on their part.

Good news is enough Democrats in Congress have a backbone that it appears action is likely going to be forced in any case, but the time lag is still large enough at this point that I doubt it is going to do anything to dissuade China from undertaking their own military adventure.

Message received loud and clear: The Western Advanced Economies will squawk loudly about Democracy and get up to some rather annoying activities... But they're not going to risk their economies in any significant way to do anything about it.

Given how China is tightly connected to so much of the world's economic system, you basically cannot put harsh sanctions on them like has been done on Russia without putting your own economy at risk in more ways than one. While with Russia your only major risk factors are oil and natural gas prices.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 05, 2022, 03:42:12 PM
And another analyst I follow, has pointed out some cheery information for the next year or two.

Russia is the #5 Grain exporter in the world, Ukraine is #4. For obvious reasons, if the fighting runs much longer in Ukraine(and even if Ukraine surrendered next week) it is unlikely that Ukraine is going to have much of a planting season, or subsequent harvest this year. And with Russia under a harsh economic sanctions regiem...

The Arab Spring from a decade ago happened largely in response to an increase in food prices as a consequence of a drought that struck Ukraine and Russia the year before.

Only we're not just dealing with their grain exports this year.

China is the #1 exporter of phosphate based fertilizers, so if they do anything that results in their sanctioned too...
Russia is the #4 exporter of phosphate based fertilizers...

Using potash for your fertilizer input? Russia, Belarus, and China combined made up 48% of the world's potash production in 2020.

Nitrate based fertilizers use natural gas as a primary input, and Russia is one of the world's primary producer of natural gas and associated byproducts (such as nitrate fertilizers).

Modern crop yields across much of the world are heavily reliant on the input of fertilizers. Fertilizer supplies, of nearly all types, are likely to be extremely tight this year, which means very expensive for the areas that still have it available(North America--which ironically doesn't need it very badly thanks to naturally productive farmland), and severe shortage in other parts of the world. Severe shortage of fertilizer in turn means diminished crop yields later this year... Which means further reduction in food exports/availability across the globe.

The "Arab Spring"  was wild enough as it was, dialing that up to 11 and throwing in the Covid aftermath on top of that and the next couple of years are looking to be very rough ones indeed, even if China doesn't decide to trigger a Great Power conflict over Taiwan.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 05, 2022, 04:17:19 PM
TheDeamon

"Still sad to see that the Biden Admin is having to be drug, kicking and screaming, into doing something about the Russian Oil Imports and lack of sanctions on them."

--------------------------------------

And I was thinking to show how seriously we take the situation we'd have to put sanctions not just on Russia but on the countries that buy their oil. It's sad to see that we'd have to start first and foremost by sanctioning ourselves.

I don't know if it's true or not but I heard that since elected, President Biden hasn't had any direct communication with the leadership of Ukraine. Refusing to take their calls sends a message along with words like "minor incursion". People are acting like Biden is successfully stepping up to the plate now in harshly dealing with Russia but the real test of leadership has already been failed. If it had been successful then this invasion wouldn't have happened. Having said that, now that everything's broken, I will give Biden some credit for no longer being as weak as possible. His actions are pretty strong so far if a dollar short and a day late but there's also much more he can do and no longer importing Russian oil should be at the top of the list.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 05, 2022, 05:46:10 PM
US Senators on a video call with the Ukrainian President share details of the call even though they were asked/told to not share that info.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/two-gop-senators-share-photos-192047841.html

I wonder how many GOP Senator's are in the pay of Putin?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: jc44 on March 06, 2022, 06:16:14 AM
TheDeamon

I don't know if it's true or not but I heard that since elected, President Biden hasn't had any direct communication with the leadership of Ukraine.
That much I'm pretty sure is false:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/biden-zelensky-meet-white-house-amid-ukraine-russia-conflict-n1278232

and in the reporting of Saturday's conversations Zelensky uses the words "another phone call with POTUS" indicating that there has been prior communication.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 06, 2022, 07:57:25 AM
But they were not the greatest phone calls ever made in history were they. So they do not count.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Wayward Son on March 07, 2022, 05:28:40 PM
I wonder how many GOP Senator's are in the pay of Putin?

Or, worse, are being blackmailed by Putin. ;)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 08, 2022, 10:58:16 AM
What has Putin shown the world?  That his military is second rate.  Threatening nukes is his only trump card.  Of course it is the only real trump card he needs. But in a conventional war? NATO wipes the floor with him.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 08, 2022, 11:15:37 AM
What has Putin shown the world?  That his military is second rate.  Threatening nukes is his only trump card.  Of course it is the only real trump card he needs. But in a conventional war? NATO wipes the floor with him.

I think he also severely overestimated how much people care about his oil. It seems like part of his plan was to establish an oil network with Europe, thereby making them reliant on it so that they wouldn't dare risk having it cut off. Boy was that a miscalculation.

I have to admit I'm surprised at his stupidity if this is in fact his idea. I had thought that for the past 10-15 years he was working to overcome the mid-East competition and get Russia up to snuff economically as much as possible. Why preside over a weak, beaten country when he can rule a stronger country with a better economy. I guess it just goes to show that in a way these kinds of people would rather be a big fish in a little pond, ruling the pile of rubble, than to preside over a prosperous nation and increase their power base. Maybe China is exceptional in this regard, since they seem to see the strength of the nation as being global finance rather than the individual might of the ruler.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 08, 2022, 11:29:17 AM
Colonel Ivanov: Wait, we're invading Ukraine?
General Popov: It is true, comrade.
Colonel Ivanov: Why?
General Popov: Apparently, Putin trusted our readiness reports.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 08, 2022, 11:32:41 AM
I saw a report that said the generals had been siphoning off money to build luxury yachts instead of spending it on the military. I mean when you have a bunch of crooks running the country why not get some of your own.  You're never really going to go to war, right? No one would be that crazy?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 08, 2022, 11:33:13 AM
What a squadron of A-10 and a battalion of M1's would be able to do over there.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 08, 2022, 12:19:38 PM
Quote
I have to admit I'm surprised at his stupidity if this is in fact his idea. I had thought that for the past 10-15 years he was working to overcome the mid-East competition and get Russia up to snuff economically as much as possible. Why preside over a weak, beaten country when he can rule a stronger country with a better economy. I guess it just goes to show that in a way these kinds of people would rather be a big fish in a little pond, ruling the pile of rubble, than to preside over a prosperous nation and increase their power base. Maybe China is exceptional in this regard, since they seem to see the strength of the nation as being global finance rather than the individual might of the ruler.

I also thought that Putin realized that conquering didn't require military force. His ability to disrupt seem to have been working. I disagree that his intention was to create a strong Russian economy that benefited the hole.  The fact that he and his cronies have taken (stolen) the amount of money they have and moved the money out of Russia begs the question as to what he was trying to build.

It will not surprise me when he gets backed into a cornered he decides to take everyone down with him. I hope the Russian people take the steps need to stop him before that happens. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 08, 2022, 12:30:07 PM
I disagree that his intention was to create a strong Russian economy that benefited the hole.

I never thought he cared about the economy vis a vis improving life for the citizens. It just seems to be common sense that if you're skimming off the top of everything, the bigger the pot the more you personally get. Fleecing the country amounts to much less if the country isn't productive. That's one of the reasons the USSR was so pathetic - they destroyed any capacity for production and farming when they took over, resulting in a total inability to compete with the West. So it was my assumption that Putin was going to enrich himself and become even more powerful as a result of increasing Russian oil interests. A side effect might have been a better economy for everyone else. The reason I'm calling him stupid now is that even he will become weaker (or ousted, or dead) as a result of destroying his own country's economy. You can't fleece a sheep with no wool.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 08, 2022, 12:36:19 PM
FWIW, Ukraine is claiming they killed another Russian General. I didn't realize Generals got killed anymore. What was he doing so far forward at the edge of a contested city? That doesn't seem right. Of course the announcement could be propaganda designed to get other Russian generals to contemplate their life choices.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 08, 2022, 12:47:49 PM
I heard that the Russian generals have needed to be pretty far forward to keep their subordinates on task. It could also be that Russia's rear area security is terrible so even if they aren't forward, the Ukrainians can still get to them.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 08, 2022, 12:49:53 PM
I am waiting for Trump to tell his good buddy Vlad to stay strong and never give in. Don't listen to your advisors, just do what your gut tells you to do. No matter how bad it makes you look.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 08, 2022, 01:09:44 PM
I am waiting for Trump to tell his good buddy Vlad to stay strong and never give in. Don't listen to your advisors, just do what your gut tells you to do. No matter how bad it makes you look.

And especially never admit you were wrong! Even when your army has fallen and you're in the Hague awaiting a war crimes tribunal, make sure to repeatedly announce how you won the war!
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 08, 2022, 01:24:53 PM
The Tribunal is bought and paid for by Soros and Gates so you can't trust them.  There was no invasion.  It was all fake new paid for by Dominion.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 08, 2022, 01:42:31 PM
Putin has been very successfully in getting others to live in the 'reality' that he creates. He is a master of the illusion, propaganda, disinformation, fake news and truthful hyperbole.
In that context he has been very smart. His current actions don't make any sense, I can't help but wonder if he has fallen for his own tricks. That large table thing and distance he keeps from his 'advisors'  seem very 'freudian' to me. He has cut himself off
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 08, 2022, 01:44:07 PM
The Tribunal is bought and paid for by Soros and Gates so you can't trust them.  There was no invasion.  It was all fake new paid for by Dominion.

Thier is a increasing number of people who believe that the war in Ukraine is fake. I wonder who could be pushing that narrative.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 08, 2022, 03:12:08 PM
The Russians never did invade Ukraine. It was ANTIFA!
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 08, 2022, 03:27:18 PM
Well it was the communist.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 08, 2022, 04:38:04 PM
The Tribunal is bought and paid for by Soros and Gates so you can't trust them.  There was no invasion.  It was all fake new paid for by Dominion.

Thier is a increasing number of people who believe that the war in Ukraine is fake. I wonder who could be pushing that narrative.

I think there are an increasing number of people who question damn near everything being pumped out of the media. The thinking ones, at least.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 08, 2022, 06:06:37 PM
The Tribunal is bought and paid for by Soros and Gates so you can't trust them.  There was no invasion.  It was all fake new paid for by Dominion.

Thier is a increasing number of people who believe that the war in Ukraine is fake. I wonder who could be pushing that narrative.

I think there are an increasing number of people who question damn near everything being pumped out of the media. The thinking ones, at least.

Its good to be skeptical but if that's as far as you go with regards to discernment of what is true and or more true then not then what have you to stand on? Nothing is real and and you pick and choose as you like. Only that just leaves you more agitated. So you force people to 'see' the world as you want it to be. a Foundation of Sand

Which is exactly what Putin relays on.  Eventually anything build on such a foundation must fall
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 08, 2022, 06:43:35 PM
The Tribunal is bought and paid for by Soros and Gates so you can't trust them.  There was no invasion.  It was all fake new paid for by Dominion.

Thier is a increasing number of people who believe that the war in Ukraine is fake. I wonder who could be pushing that narrative.

I think there are an increasing number of people who question damn near everything being pumped out of the media. The thinking ones, at least.

I guess if you're Descartes you might question this level of reality. But with 2 million refugees, can anyone think that a war is faked? The major news agencies are playing make believe and they've just hired a few hundred extras to stand on train platforms? The UN is meeting to discuss a fake war, or I guess maybe you think they aren't meeting, that's just propaganda too. Of course this would be some propaganda operation, considering all these reports are corroborated by first hand tweets, youtubes, tiktoks, instagrams, and on and on.

You know who questions everything? Three year olds. Other people use some sense and question the things that are improbable, like Jewish Space Lasers.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 08, 2022, 08:41:58 PM
I figured they'd be using drones like this. I'm glad it's the good guys.

These look like they could be a nightmare though if they ever caught on with terrorists or criminals or just crazy people.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/tech/news/ukrainians-using-stealth-drones-wipe-26413916

"It’s relatively small and light enough to be undetectable to radar and you can’t see or hear it once it’s airborne which makes it a nightmare on the battlefield," he said.

"What’s more, it can drop three bombs at a time or hit three separate targets, then return to base to be reloaded and sent back into battle within minutes."
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 09, 2022, 09:02:28 AM
Quote
The attempts came as Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator warned that the closed Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been disconnected from the nation’s power grid by Russian forces, potentially jeopardizing the cooling of nuclear fuel still stored at the site. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba demanded a cease-fire with Russia to allow repairs as another official called the loss of contact with the International Atomic Energy Agency an “extremely dangerous situation.”

What the ever living F are they doing? Surrender or we'll make your power plant melt down?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 09, 2022, 09:26:34 AM
Quote
The attempts came as Ukraine’s state-owned grid operator warned that the closed Chernobyl nuclear power plant has been disconnected from the nation’s power grid by Russian forces, potentially jeopardizing the cooling of nuclear fuel still stored at the site. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba demanded a cease-fire with Russia to allow repairs as another official called the loss of contact with the International Atomic Energy Agency an “extremely dangerous situation.”

What the ever living F are they doing? Surrender or we'll make your power plant melt down?

I think its more of an F you and your country for fighting back. Now we're going to leave your country a wasteland.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 09, 2022, 10:38:42 AM
I think its more of an F you and your country for fighting back. Now we're going to leave your country a wasteland.


Sadly I think that will be how this ends. Following the Syrian game plan. What a waist and for what. Nothing.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 09, 2022, 01:06:10 PM
What a squadron of A-10 and a battalion of M1's would be able to do over there.

A-10's yes. M1's no. The ground isn't frozen like they planned for. Our heavy armor would be road bound just like theirs are. Although we should have fewer tire failures on support vehicles.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 09, 2022, 01:16:16 PM
I have to admit I'm surprised at his stupidity if this is in fact his idea. I had thought that for the past 10-15 years he was working to overcome the mid-East competition and get Russia up to snuff economically as much as possible. Why preside over a weak, beaten country when he can rule a stronger country with a better economy. I guess it just goes to show that in a way these kinds of people would rather be a big fish in a little pond, ruling the pile of rubble, than to preside over a prosperous nation and increase their power base. Maybe China is exceptional in this regard, since they seem to see the strength of the nation as being global finance rather than the individual might of the ruler.

Putin and Co were likely buying into the idea of a Pan-Slavic empire with Russia at its head. Ukraine was supposed to roll over and welcome their return to "the Slaviv Order" rather than that nasty Anglo-Saxon led one.

Expect much the same out of China soon regarding a Pan-Chinese order led by the Han Chinese, by which they mean the Communist Party of China led by Xi Jinping. If that doesn't work out for them, they go the North Korean route and become a hermit kingdom with the lands they do control.

The "other factor" for Russia is a matter of history and demographics. Their warfighting population collapses this decade, so they capture and hold their "strategic choke points" now, or fear history repeating itself with invasions from the west with no population able to resist. Sadly for them, as Afghanistan demonstrated for the US. Ukraine is going to break them, they don't have enough troops to pull off a successful occupation and hold what they're trying to take.. if the Ukrainian population had welcomed them, it would have been possible. But that's not likely to happen in the next 60 years at this point.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 09, 2022, 01:17:44 PM
Ok Blackhawk and Apache helo's.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 09, 2022, 01:20:22 PM
I am waiting for Trump to tell his good buddy Vlad to stay strong and never give in. Don't listen to your advisors, just do what your gut tells you to do. No matter how bad it makes you look.

What alternate reality are you living in? You're stuck in another "really good people" trap. One would think you'd learn the first time, but then, many of you still claim it means what you want it to rather than what was said.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 09, 2022, 01:22:07 PM
The Russians never did invade Ukraine. It was ANTIFA!

Well, they did say they invaded to fight the Nazis. So that would make them Antifa by the logic of the Antifa meme warriors.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 09, 2022, 01:51:04 PM
Expect much the same out of China soon regarding a Pan-Chinese order led by the Han Chinese, by which they mean the Communist Party of China led by Xi Jinping. If that doesn't work out for them, they go the North Korean route and become a hermit kingdom with the lands they do control.

This isn't China's MO. They don't want to expand their territory, they have enough already and it's probably unwieldy. Taiwan in particular has been a blemish to them and has cost them a lot of face, so that one is a matter of honor more likely than not. They won't ever stop wanting Taiwan.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 09, 2022, 03:03:31 PM
Expect much the same out of China soon regarding a Pan-Chinese order led by the Han Chinese, by which they mean the Communist Party of China led by Xi Jinping. If that doesn't work out for them, they go the North Korean route and become a hermit kingdom with the lands they do control.

This isn't China's MO. They don't want to expand their territory, they have enough already and it's probably unwieldy. Taiwan in particular has been a blemish to them and has cost them a lot of face, so that one is a matter of honor more likely than not. They won't ever stop wanting Taiwan.

The old ways of thinking don't work and we need to stop thinking the past was so great we should try to step in the same river twice.  Loss of Face, Honor, no one cares. The good old days were not so good what's the point
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 09, 2022, 03:05:26 PM
Loss of Face, Honor, no one cares. The good old days were not so good what's the point

Well, the Chinese care. I guess you could argue they should abandon their culture.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 09, 2022, 03:15:04 PM
It's a potential weak point for domestic opposition. As long as Taiwan remains independent, opponents of the current administration can argue that if they were in power, they'd have taken Taiwan by now.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 09, 2022, 04:10:34 PM
Loss of Face, Honor, no one cares. The good old days were not so good what's the point

Well, the Chinese care. I guess you could argue they should abandon their culture.

Learn better do better. The code of honor has been a excuse for a great deal of harm. And little benefit for those that have 'saved face' usually no one wins even when they win.
This is how its always been' is a poor excuses for not learning better.

This fear to question 'culture' is why honor killings is still a thing. Can't punish me its my culture.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 09, 2022, 04:15:41 PM
Seems Putin is targeting hospitals (just as happened in Syria

Probably just a culture thing :(
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 09, 2022, 09:07:15 PM
It's a potential weak point for domestic opposition. As long as Taiwan remains independent, opponents of the current administration can argue that if they were in power, they'd have taken Taiwan by now.

It's worse than that by some estimates by some China watchers.

You have the "Communist Princelings" (Xi is technically a member, it's how he got power in the first place) that seem to be moving against him now in the run up to their October meeting.

Then there is the Xiang Zemin faction who already attempted to overthrow Xi back in 2014.

George Soros and his 2021 OpEd was him likely playing mouthpiece to one of those two groups, maybe both.

Then there is the Xi Jinping faction. "The Princes" seem to support a Taiwan invasion but view Xi as unfit to lead it.

With a potential 3 way power struggle in process behind closed doors, their economy on the skids, with poor prospects of outside help soon given recent events... There is a strategic economic argument to be made that China could potentially crash the Global Economy, and not just their own(as might have happened otherwise), if they invade Taiwan right now if the World tries an equally strong sanctions regime (or stronger) in response.

That Xi could use it as cover to go after rivals still stands. That Xi also had established a cult of personality to rival Mao himself over the past 10 years also points to him trying to immortalize himself by going after Taiwan. He either captures it, and removes his rivals. Or he fails, but removes his rivals before the failure is comeplete. Then follow the model from the Kim family in North Korea to hold power until his own demise. If the Kim's could retain power after failing to take South Korea and nearly losing North Korea as well, why not?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 09, 2022, 09:25:01 PM
Also on further thought about the international response to Russia in light of Ukraine. I'm starting to suspect there actually isn't much that could be done to Russia that could get China to decide to not invade Taiwan (unless they'd already decided not to)...

This is a nation that already did significant harm to their own economy by banning the use of Australian Coal after a member of the Aussie parliament offended them over Covid19. So given the Western response to Ukraine, we're a bunch of hand-wringing weaklings incapable of decisive action. (Which does describe Biden, but that's another matter)

I'm spit-balling 75/25 on China invading Taiwan by the middle of next month, but nothing starting earlier than the last week of this month. Probably would start seeing reports about a buildup of forces shortly after the Paralympics conclude, have to keep up pretensions about the games being a time for peaceful behavior/conduct after making a fuss about the whole traditional ceasefire resolution last winter. That doesn't end until the 16th. I'll be very happy if China hasn't done anything by the end of April.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 11, 2022, 08:57:02 AM
Trump still will not say anything bad about his buddy Putin.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/got-along-trump-avoids-criticizing-035957515.html

So is Putin still looking savvy and a genius?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 11, 2022, 09:14:23 AM
Quote
So is Putin still looking savvy and a genius?

Their are different kinds of intelligence. Not sure how to define genius he is certainly a master of illusion and shaping of reality for many.

Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov latest statements about How Russia hasn't attacked Ukraine is... wow. Yet I can see many wanting to believe that and making it so. I can here Tucker Caslon now Ukraine doesn't exist its always been Russian or USSR so these are just 'operations' a family matter. Not invasion's. Perfectly reasonable :(
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 11, 2022, 09:28:43 AM
Quote
"Remember that Zelenskyy is a thug," Cawthorn said in a video obtained by WRAL News. "Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies."

https://www.wral.com/us-rep-madison-cawthorn-calls-zelensky-thug/20180199/ (https://www.wral.com/us-rep-madison-cawthorn-calls-zelensky-thug/20180199/)

Go go crazy republican representatives.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 11, 2022, 09:36:02 AM
Quote
So is Putin still looking savvy and a genius?

Their are different kinds of intelligence. Not sure how to define genius he is certainly a master of illusion and shaping of reality for many.

Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov latest statements about How Russia hasn't attacked Ukraine is... wow. Yet I can see many wanting to believe that and making it so. I can here Tucker Caslon now Ukraine doesn't exist its always been Russian or USSR so these are just 'operations' a family matter. Not invasion's. Perfectly reasonable :(

Communist Party of China will be taking pretty much exactly that position on Taiwan when they invade. "There is but one China, and Taiwan is a part of China. You cannot invade yourself, therefore, it is not an invasion." I've seen Wumao's make pretty much exactly that claim on just the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 11, 2022, 09:48:55 AM
https://www.wral.com/us-rep-madison-cawthorn-calls-zelensky-thug/20180199/ (https://www.wral.com/us-rep-madison-cawthorn-calls-zelensky-thug/20180199/)

Go go crazy republican representatives.

Isn't this the rapist con-man who flunked out of college almost immediately?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 11, 2022, 10:01:34 AM
I think that is Gaetz. This is the guy who wound up in a wheelchair when the car his buddy was driving crashed.  And now he has been caught speeding several time (more than 20 over the limit) while on an expired license. Law's don't apply to him.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 11, 2022, 10:15:16 AM
https://www.wral.com/us-rep-madison-cawthorn-calls-zelensky-thug/20180199/ (https://www.wral.com/us-rep-madison-cawthorn-calls-zelensky-thug/20180199/)

Go go crazy republican representatives.

Isn't this the rapist con-man who flunked out of college almost immediately?

Hadn't heard the rape allegations but definitely the con man ones.

He also has a "great" story of how he met his (ex)wife that begins in a Russian casino.

Quote
“It all starts in a Russian casino,” Cawthorn began. According to the 26-year-old congressman, he and some friends went on an international trip ahead of an intense reconstructive back surgery he was scheduled to undergo. Here’s where Cawthorn’s response gets interesting: “So me and a bunch of friends, we went to, we got to go over to, over to, very close to Russia. We went to Sweden and Norway. It was an incredible vacation.” Sweden and Norway are hundreds if not thousands of miles from Russia, depending on where Cawthorn and his friends were visiting in both countries.
...
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 11, 2022, 10:25:42 AM
Gaetz is under investigation for paying to have sex with minors.

https://www.msnbc.com/the-reidout/reidout-blog/matt-gaetz-sex-trafficking-investigation-rcna15414
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 11, 2022, 11:14:14 AM
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-recital-society-cancels-performance-by-genius-russian-pianist

That's it. I'm demanding Amazon remove the following:

- all books by Tolstoy, Nabokov, Dostoyevsky and others I haven't thought of yet.
- all music/works of Tchaikovsky, Rachmaninoff, Stravinsky and I'm sure there are many more
- all Russian nesting dolls

I'm also boycotting all NHL teams that have Russian players and demanding they permanently suspend Alex Ovechkin. To send the right message of support.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 11, 2022, 12:41:53 PM
https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/vancouver-recital-society-cancels-performance-by-genius-russian-pianist

That's it. I'm demanding Amazon remove the following:

- all books by Tolstoy, Nabokov, Dostoyevsky and others I haven't thought of yet.
- all music/works of Tchaikovsky, Rachmaninoff, Stravinsky and I'm sure there are many more
- all Russian nesting dolls

I'm also boycotting all NHL teams that have Russian players and demanding they permanently suspend Alex Ovechkin. To send the right message of support.

Go for it. Since the nuclear deterrent keeps us out of the actual fighting might as well punish Russia in everyway possible. The individual Russians who get hurt financially, tough s***, take it up with Putin for all the Ukrainians dying and having their homes and hospitals bombed out.

I agree, a lot of this is sound and fury signifying mostly nothing. Ukrainians need more javelins, stingers, rifles, and ammunition. American air support could obliterate the invasion in a few days but there is a real danger of being too successful in that campaign and having Putin lash out like a wounded and cornered animal to devastating consequences. But if people want to boycott every traveling Russian athlete and artist then go for it. It causes no harm to Ukraine. Doesn't do them much good either since Putin probably doesn't give a crap about anyone outside of his very inner circle.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 11, 2022, 01:03:08 PM
Go for it. Since the nuclear deterrent keeps us out of the actual fighting might as well punish Russia in everyway possible. The individual Russians who get hurt financially, tough s***, take it up with Putin for all the Ukrainians dying and having their homes and hospitals bombed out.

Um, I think ScottF is saying that this doesn't actually hurt Russia, but just discriminates against Russian-born people no matter where they actually live, a la Japanese internment camps.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 11, 2022, 01:08:51 PM
I wonder which echo from the chamber alerted you to this terrible situation in Vancouver. The Globe and Mail seems to have gone nuts about it. Is there a widespread cancelling of Russian artists?

Let's have a look at their statement, shall we?

Quote
We at the VRS cannot in good conscience present a concert by any Russian artist at this moment in time unless they are prepared to speak out publicly against this war.

So yeah, I guess if Tolstoy refuses to speak out against the invasion, we'll have to ban his book.  ::)

If this cat wants to play the piano internationally, all he has to say is that the leader of his country is evil. Full stop.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 11, 2022, 01:10:49 PM
Plenty of empathy in the continuing statement:

Quote
He is now being penalized, despite the fact that he has nothing to do with what’s going on. He is in fear of what would happen to his family, with whom he still lives in Moscow, if he speaks out. Alexander Malofeev is just one the many millions of innocent Russians who are being deeply impacted by the actions of their government. It is all so very senseless. And it breaks my heart."

source (https://www.straight.com/arts/vancouver-recital-society-cancels-concert-by-young-russian-pianist-in-wake-of-putins-unprovoked)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 11, 2022, 01:17:40 PM
If this cat wants to play the piano internationally, all he has to say is that the leader of his country is evil. Full stop.

Uh...you mean that in order for artists to make the meager living they can already barely make they have to also become political agitators and American puppets, targeting a dictator who can kill their family? Real sensitive, man.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 11, 2022, 01:36:05 PM
Go for it. Since the nuclear deterrent keeps us out of the actual fighting might as well punish Russia in everyway possible. The individual Russians who get hurt financially, tough s***, take it up with Putin for all the Ukrainians dying and having their homes and hospitals bombed out.

Um, I think ScottF is saying that this doesn't actually hurt Russia, but just discriminates against Russian-born people no matter where they actually live, a la Japanese internment camps.

Did you miss my second part where I agreed this really has no impact on Russian policy?

The kid lives in Moscow. He's not some immigrant being punished for his motherland. Vancouver just isn't going to pay for him to fly over from Moscow for a concert. I'm sure some Canadian pianist will be happy to give a concert in his place. Small scale sanctions, not sending money to Russia. Like in most wars is the little guy who loses the most while not being part of starting or having the power to stop the war.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 11, 2022, 02:08:07 PM
If this cat wants to play the piano internationally, all he has to say is that the leader of his country is evil. Full stop.

Uh...you mean that in order for artists to make the meager living they can already barely make they have to also become political agitators and American puppets, targeting a dictator who can kill their family? Real sensitive, man.

Remember when artists defected from the Soviet Union to escape? He can do that. It's not about being a puppet, its about making a clear moral choice. He got cancelled from one (1) venue. I think he'll be able to make a living.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 13, 2022, 11:37:02 AM
Coming soon: proof of Ukraine support in order to enter restaurants or fly.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 14, 2022, 11:30:13 AM
Coming soon: proof of Ukraine support in order to enter restaurants or fly.

Possibly if a restaurant owner decides as much. But it wouldn't be the belief but rather the overt support. I could see a restaurant owner not wanting to deal with the fallout if some customer decides to wear a pro-Russia t-shirt with Putin on it.

Flying? Possible. The no fly list has been abused and misused in lots of other situations, so I could see it. I expect it would apply to particularly vocal support for Russia and spreading their propaganda. Same thing for Visa entry.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: edgmatt on March 14, 2022, 12:10:40 PM
Just note the difference between: not letting someone who is actively supporting Putin/Russia on the plane/in the private building vs. one having to show proof of support of Ukraine to access the same plane/private business.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 14, 2022, 12:29:33 PM
I think that there's a clear difference between public figures and ordinary people. I can see public figures - performers and speakers in particular, getting events cancelled if they are pro-Putin. Much more rare, but also possible as described in the original example, is being neutral.

I don't recall conservatives getting upset when Iranian artists were blocked from even coming to the US, let alone performing.

Iranian Musicians Cancelled (https://variety.com/2017/biz/news/iranian-musicians-pallett-cancel-u-s-tour-trump-travel-ban-1201975874/)

Quote
Shari Rezai, an Iranian-American concert promoter, was planning on bringing two Persian jazz bands to the U.S. this summer. But the Trump Administration’s travel ban for citizens of Iran and six other countries has forced her to put those plans on hold. One of the bands is Manushan. By email, the lead singer of the group, Aida Nosrat, said she lives in France on an artists’ visa, but has Iranian citizenship, so now she cannot travel to the U.S.

At least Canada isn't demanding that Alexander Malofeev renounce his citizenship.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 14, 2022, 12:36:28 PM
Cancel culture what-about-ism. This is what we debate as the important issue concerning Ukraine
All so depressing.

We seem so determined to create what we fear then what we hope for. I can't help but wonder if at some level what we hope for isn't to create what we fear.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 14, 2022, 01:59:49 PM
Quote
This is what we debate as the important issue concerning Ukraine

If you've got a more important issue to discuss, you're more than welcome to present one. Seems to me most of the important issues have been exhausted in this thread back in the beginning. What can/should the international community do? Can the Russians succeed, and what does success mean? What is the threat from Russia to other nations? What will be the impact on oil prices? What impact, if any might this have on any Chinese ambitions toward Taiwan? How racist is the differential treatment of Ukraine and its refugees compared to Syrian refugees, and in international response?

I don't see any new ground in the "important" topics, but maybe you do.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 14, 2022, 03:02:08 PM
Bill Maher did a piece on how everyone was projecting thier what's wrong with the "other" cause to the why of war in Ukraine . I wonder if its not for the same reasons. the important issues have been exhausted and it really doesn't make much sense. Lives will be taken for the benefit of ???? Perhaps humans really are a vires the Earth is trying to cure itself of and that we are only to happy to help. 

Don't mind me. I have lost all hope for the future. I no longer believe that even if we learned better we would try to do better. We are regressing, all the important issues exhausted, we have forgotten.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 14, 2022, 03:12:42 PM
Don't mind me. I have lost all hope for the future. I no longer believe that even if we learned better we would try to do better. We are regressing, all the important issues exhausted, we have forgotten.

The future isn't measured in decades, so don't worry. The future is not lost even if there is a negative period, even one lasting years, or even much longer. The fact of ordinary people being blinded by conflicting information is probably not at all new, just new in how quickly this is accomplished. Consider: technology always moves forward, regardless of anything else. Our fields of learning (some of them, anyhow) likewise. These persist whether or not current governments are corrupt, or the people selfish. It all pushes forward. For a sci-fi fan the question has always been whether these improvements will make life better or worse; the stupidity of timely events are only transitory.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 14, 2022, 04:44:36 PM
Don't mind me. I have lost all hope for the future. I no longer believe that even if we learned better we would try to do better. We are regressing, all the important issues exhausted, we have forgotten.
For a sci-fi fan the question has always been whether these improvements will make life better or worse; the stupidity of timely events are only transitory.

I used to associate the idea of improvement to imply better.
Perhaps that's in the eye of the beholder. I was going to say eye of the survivor but that would be associating surviving with the word better and I no longer believe that.

The earth will abide but I find no solace in that. We seem to be doing our damnedest to insure we won't be around to enjoy it. Maybe that will be the better improvement.


Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 14, 2022, 05:17:46 PM
The earth will abide but I find no solace in that. We seem to be doing our damnedest to insure we won't be around to enjoy it. Maybe that will be the better improvement.

If you're talking about the eradication of the species I'm not sure you realize how difficult that would be. It would be difficult even if one tried overtly to do that.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 14, 2022, 05:43:27 PM
Not eradication just making life miserable for the majority. For no better reason then because we can and thought that maybe it will be ok as long as it won't be me on the bottom. 

I keep wondering about the person who cut down the last tree on Easter Island'

Used to be a fan of Walking dead. To keep the story going the writers can't allow a 'happy ending' because their isn't one. A Freudian slip?
The Game a thrones ends where beginning, everything changed but everything the same. The useful idiots, those that survived, no better off for all the fighting, and still useful idiots for the lords that 'won'.  All a Game where the winning doesn't matter.

What's the point. Lets cut down that tree. I might be able to make a buck.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 14, 2022, 07:10:45 PM
Quote
I keep wondering about the person who cut down the last tree on Easter Island

The last resident, to make a raft? Just like we'll probably exhaust the last of Earth's resources to brave the waters of interstellar space. Only our sculptures probably won't last.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 14, 2022, 11:05:30 PM
I keep wondering about the person who cut down the last tree on Easter Island.
So what happens if we discover the last tree(s) on the Island died to causes not related to human activity?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 15, 2022, 09:20:14 AM
I keep wondering about the person who cut down the last tree on Easter Island.
So what happens if we discover the last tree(s) on the Island died to causes not related to human activity?

Watch innocently, do nothing other then appeal to the gods?. Wait the last tree was cut down in the service of the gods, a petition that the gods plant more trees.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 16, 2022, 12:11:14 PM
Son, if you want to keep working here you must be active and vocal in your support of [$cause]. We're gonna need to hear you say it. And a ribbon or t-shirt would also be nice touch.

I, for one, would like my employer to know that I fully support $cause[1] and have added a graphic to my twitter account to prove it. Again, I want to be on the record: $cause[1] has my full and active support.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-s-daniil-medvedev-faces-wimbledon-ban-unless-he-distances-himself-from-putin-9h6hfxxrm



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 16, 2022, 01:08:43 PM
Son, if you want to keep working here you must be active and vocal in your support of [$cause]. We're gonna need to hear you say it. And a ribbon or t-shirt would also be nice touch.

I, for one, would like my employer to know that I fully support $cause[1] and have added a graphic to my twitter account to prove it. Again, I want to be on the record: $cause[1] has my full and active support.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-s-daniil-medvedev-faces-wimbledon-ban-unless-he-distances-himself-from-putin-9h6hfxxrm

Are we really going to shed tears for Russian athletes who are still Russian nationals? Giant shrug, no Wimbledon prize tax money for the Russian war machine. When did American right become so pro Russia? Sanctioning Russia and Russians isn't some slippery slope to not speaking out against any evil becoming sanctionable for native citizens.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 16, 2022, 02:44:01 PM
Son, if you want to keep working here you must be active and vocal in your support of [$cause]. We're gonna need to hear you say it. And a ribbon or t-shirt would also be nice touch.

I, for one, would like my employer to know that I fully support $cause[1] and have added a graphic to my twitter account to prove it. Again, I want to be on the record: $cause[1] has my full and active support.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-s-daniil-medvedev-faces-wimbledon-ban-unless-he-distances-himself-from-putin-9h6hfxxrm

Are we really going to shed tears for Russian athletes who are still Russian nationals? Giant shrug, no Wimbledon prize tax money for the Russian war machine. When did American right become so pro Russia? Sanctioning Russia and Russians isn't some slippery slope to not speaking out against any evil becoming sanctionable for native citizens.

Yes, let's definitely turn major sporting events - or better yet, all entertainment - into political rallies where you must swear fealty to the right regimes in order to participate. Maybe they should hand out anti-Russia armbands to wear as well, just to make sure it's clear who has not properly distanced themselves from bad guys. I think we can go further than this, though: why not include local politicians. For instance during Iraq 2.0 we could have instituted a policy in the U.S. Open requiring all athletes to attest that they are not supporters of Bush 43. And during Obama's presidency we could have done the same, requiring entertainers at Madison Square Garden to sign an oath promising they do not support Obama and his war in Libya or the drone attacks. We can go on and on.

Yes, it definitely seems right to make sure athletes and other celebrities are on the right side of public opinion before they can be allowed to compete.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 16, 2022, 03:11:30 PM
...
Yes, let's definitely turn major sporting events - or better yet, all entertainment - into political rallies where you must swear fealty to the right regimes in order to participate. Maybe they should hand out anti-Russia armbands to wear as well, just to make sure it's clear who has not properly distanced themselves from bad guys. I think we can go further than this, though: why not include local politicians. For instance during Iraq 2.0 we could have instituted a policy in the U.S. Open requiring all athletes to attest that they are not supporters of Bush 43. And during Obama's presidency we could have done the same, requiring entertainers at Madison Square Garden to sign an oath promising they do not support Obama and his war in Libya or the drone attacks. We can go on and on.

Yes, it definitely seems right to make sure athletes and other celebrities are on the right side of public opinion before they can be allowed to compete.

This is not domestic political politics. This is protesting and sanctioning the largest invasion of a peaceful democracy since WW2. I just don't see the slippery slope being at all applicable here. Sanctioning Russians for Russian aggression isn't just your average political disagreement. Does Medvedev deserve it? Not really, sucks to be from a country invading and destroying your neighbors while threatening the rest of the world with nukes if they intervein. Will it significantly impact Russian policy? Probably not. Do actions like this help cut through a little bit of the Russian domestic propaganda? Maybe, the Russian media has to explain why Medvedev isn't allowed to play while other Russian stars like Rublev are.

And I also don't take silence from Medvedev to mean he supports Putin, just that he fears consequences for himself or his family if he says anything. I do think Wimbledon (or the UK) is putting him in a no win situation. But his options are to skip a few tennis tournaments, risk speaking out against Putin and staying in Russia, or getting his family out of Russia and requesting asylum somewhere.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 16, 2022, 03:13:49 PM
When did American right become so pro Russia?

Right on cue! Those who disagree with forcing public displays of political support as a requirement for employment must be pro-Russia!

Your McCarthy impression is spot on. There could be many "parlour Bolsheviks" lurking in the sports and entertainment world. We should ferret them out ASAP. Especially those communist sympathizers on the American right!
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 16, 2022, 03:19:14 PM
This is protesting and sanctioning the largest invasion of a peaceful democracy since WW2.

Your employer telling you that you can't work unless you publicly endorse a particular party line is not protesting.

And for the record, I don't care what the cause is. Forcing people to pledge political allegiance in order to do a non-political job is stupid and evil.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 16, 2022, 03:22:27 PM
When did American right become so pro Russia?

Right on cue! Those who disagree with forcing public displays of political support as a requirement for employment must be pro-Russia!

Your McCarthy impression is spot on. There could be many "parlour Bolsheviks" lurking in the sports and entertainment world. We should ferret them out ASAP. Especially those communist sympathizers on the American right!


Nice strawman, the only people being sanctioned are Russian nationals living in Russia. What I don't understand is why the American right is in an outrage over Russians being sanctioned for Russian actions.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 16, 2022, 03:30:29 PM
This is protesting and sanctioning the largest invasion of a peaceful democracy since WW2.

Your employer telling you that you can't work unless you publicly endorse a particular party line is not protesting.

And for the record, I don't care what the cause is. Forcing people to pledge political allegiance in order to do a non-political job is stupid and evil.

Stupid and evil is shelling maternity hospitals. Telling Russians who won't call that evil that they can't enter your country isn't some affront to civil liberties.

Let me know when these sanctions start being applied to anyone not residing in Russia.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 16, 2022, 04:11:30 PM
Let me know when these sanctions start being applied to anyone not residing in Russia.

Medvedev doesn't reside in Russia. He speaks fluent French, moved to France in 2018 and now resides permanently in Monaco.

Maybe a compromise: those who reside in Russia have to say the words they're given, but others just need to wear a ribbon.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 16, 2022, 04:29:56 PM
Scott, athletes are supported by sponsors. Sponsors pull ads when there is bad publicity. You're extrapolating this so broadly as to suggest that they'll be coming for the librarians before you know it. Are they supposed to take a financial bath because an athlete is ambiguous about not liking the indiscriminate bombing of an entire civilian population, not to mention starving them and preventing the delivery of life saving and life sustaining medication?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 16, 2022, 05:45:59 PM
I think if an athlete, actor, whatever is openly saying ambiguous (or worse) things about something as bad as what's happening in Ukraine there could definitely be a scenario where they are fired, punished, etc. I'm on board.

My problem lies with those who simply focus on doing their job and don't want to voice their political opinions at all, whether they're from Moscow or Missoula.

If you actively spout things that are supportive of bad actions/actors, all bets are off. Maybe I'm in the minority but - in my opinion, if you choose not to comment on political issues, you should be neither punished nor compelled to speak.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 16, 2022, 10:31:43 PM
I think if an athlete, actor, whatever is openly saying ambiguous (or worse) things about something as bad as what's happening in Ukraine there could definitely be a scenario where they are fired, punished, etc. I'm on board.

My problem lies with those who simply focus on doing their job and don't want to voice their political opinions at all, whether they're from Moscow or Missoula.

If you actively spout things that are supportive of bad actions/actors, all bets are off. Maybe I'm in the minority but - in my opinion, if you choose not to comment on political issues, you should be neither punished nor compelled to speak.

I completely understand that point of view, and even agree with it more than disagree, but this still leaves us with the league, team, or event holding the bag. Now, maybe an athlete's right to remain mute means that those groups should take it on the chin. Or maybe it means that the sponsors are the problem, or maybe it means the public is the problem. If there's a press conference and the athlete is asked the question, then if they refuse to answer, doesn't that mean their view is ambiguous? Not ambivalent, which would be a "both sides have a point" type of thing. And what is the litmus test? Denouncing Putin and calling him a war criminal? Or denouncing the invasion of any country? Or denouncing the bombing of civilian shelters? It seems one would have something other to say than, "meh?". He can always go back and play in the Russian intramurals for rubles.

It might be worse to snag the yachts off of Russian nationals who made their cash in the 90s and have been living in the Caribbean, but that's happening too. That's always the problem with war, lots of innocents always get hurt. In the grand scheme of things, I'm going to spend my time worrying about Ukrainian hospitals more than Russian tennis players having to sit out a tourney or two.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 17, 2022, 01:00:57 AM
How is this different than requiring Muslims to constantly denounce Islamic terrorism?

Omar has spoken out about this.

https://www.voanews.com/a/usa_us-politics_ilhan-omars-defiance-resonates-muslim-american-activists/6172631.html

There are some differences but more similarities.

I suppose a difference is that the Russians, for now, only have to come out and say it once. But as time goes on it may become more and more similar to the Muslim experience where they are constantly expected to denounce and apologize.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 17, 2022, 12:33:52 PM
Putin may have lost his mind. Literally. His own speech video, translated.

"The collective west...is focused on the destruction of Russia"

https://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1504144895501557762
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 17, 2022, 12:59:31 PM
Putin may have lost his mind. Literally. His own speech video, translated.

"The collective west...is focused on the destruction of Russia"

https://twitter.com/just_whatever/status/1504144895501557762

Well now. That's not the sort of rhetoric he used to issue, even in times of crisis. I wonder whether the Putin from 2000-2020 was a mask, which has now come off, or whether he has in fact changed and isn't quite stable anymore. He does seem more facially tense than I'm used to seeing him. In the past he's spoken from a place of overbearing intelligence, i.e. his presentation was that of being the smartest person in the room and talking sense. Now he seems...disturbed.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 17, 2022, 01:30:44 PM
I wonder if we will ever know what Putin really thinks or what motivates him.
The image of him sitting at his massive tables. Not a good sign.

The primary talking point that many Russians believe
if Russia "hadn't intervened now, in three years' time Ukraine would have been in NATO… with a nuclear bomb. [Ukraine] would definitely advance on Crimea, then on southern Russia."

If Putin really believe that, I think its a major misunderstanding of what motivates NATO countries. Which I would argue is economic and not military subjugation is way to expensive and understanding that forced occupation  has a low probably of success.

If Ukraine was part of NATO its not likely they would be given nuclear weapons (note assurances of the Budapest Memorandum where Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons).
Also NATO has no obligation to aid a country's that instigates offensive actions against another country.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on March 17, 2022, 03:00:09 PM
If Putin really believe that

He doesn't, he isn't ignorant nor stupid.  This is standard procedure to float a bunch of different reasons that ignorant people will find plausible and see which ones they will accept.  So some people will buy it was to 'fight Nazis', others will buy it was to 'restore lands unjustly taken from Russia' and others will buy this.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 17, 2022, 03:04:23 PM
Let me know when these sanctions start being applied to anyone not residing in Russia.

Medvedev doesn't reside in Russia. He speaks fluent French, moved to France in 2018 and now resides permanently in Monaco.

Maybe a compromise: those who reside in Russia have to say the words they're given, but others just need to wear a ribbon.

I suppose customs could plant drugs on him and arrest and hold him indefinitely. Seems to be the Russian thing to do.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 17, 2022, 03:13:10 PM
Quote
He doesn't, he isn't ignorant nor stupid.

I suspect your correct, however lately I wonder if Putin isn't experiencing some phycological problem. For the life of me Putin making this move now doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if he wins he losses. His hold on power appeared to be secure enough for him to last another 10 years. Maybe something we don't know.

If I was going to make such I move I'd have waited for the mid terms which I'm sure would have muddied up US response.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on March 17, 2022, 07:02:59 PM
Quote
He doesn't, he isn't ignorant nor stupid.

I suspect your correct, however lately I wonder if Putin isn't experiencing some phycological problem. For the life of me Putin making this move now doesn't make a lot of sense. Even if he wins he losses. His hold on power appeared to be secure enough for him to last another 10 years. Maybe something we don't know.

If I was going to make such I move I'd have waited for the mid terms which I'm sure would have muddied up US response.

I think there are a number of factors

1) Trump had delayed weapon transfer to the Ukranians and completely blocked training on those weapon systems.  Biden had acted immediately to get the Ukranians trained as soon as he entered office.  I think Putin was expecting that there hadn't been enough time for proper training.  So he was invading so their wouldn't be enough time for the training.

2) He couldn't afford to invade till now - Trump forcing Saudi Arabia to cut oil production took Russia from close to broke to wealthy.

3) He had to wait to avoid pissing off China - China knew of the planned invasion and wanted it delayed till after the end of the Olympics

4) He likely had been grossly misinformed as to his military's readiness - corrupt diversions and false readiness reports

5) He likely had been grossly misinformed as to the Ukraine's willingness to fight and the world's readiness to supply the Ukraine with weapons.  Had the Ukranian President fled, as is typical - it might well have gone different.  Had the Ukrainians not been making preparations and getting good intel, things could have gone drastically different.  had the plots to assassinate the Ukrainian President not been foiled, the result could have been entirely different.

6) He drastically underestimated the willingness of other countries to impose sanctions.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 18, 2022, 10:24:14 AM
https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-lviv-bomb-mariupol-theater-03-18-2022#some-european-leaders-are-trying-to-nominate-zelenskyy-for-the-nobel-peace-prize (https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-lviv-bomb-mariupol-theater-03-18-2022#some-european-leaders-are-trying-to-nominate-zelenskyy-for-the-nobel-peace-prize)


Quote
Dozens of current and former European politicians are calling on the Nobel Peace Prize Committee to extend its deadline to allow for the nomination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine.

Umm, I get the Ukrainians aren't the aggressors in this conflict. But being known for being a tenacious wartime leader and tough resistance to an invading force isn't exactly "peace price" material.

Zelenskyy has been an amazing leader through the war. But maybe some kind of Churchill prize for wartime leadership may be more apt than a peace prize.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 18, 2022, 10:27:43 AM
Sort of surprised Trump or Cawthorn or Green or Boebert have not nominated Putin.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 18, 2022, 11:03:27 AM
https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-lviv-bomb-mariupol-theater-03-18-2022#some-european-leaders-are-trying-to-nominate-zelenskyy-for-the-nobel-peace-prize (https://www.npr.org/live-updates/ukraine-lviv-bomb-mariupol-theater-03-18-2022#some-european-leaders-are-trying-to-nominate-zelenskyy-for-the-nobel-peace-prize)


Quote
Dozens of current and former European politicians are calling on the Nobel Peace Prize Committee to extend its deadline to allow for the nomination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the people of Ukraine.

Umm, I get the Ukrainians aren't the aggressors in this conflict. But being known for being a tenacious wartime leader and tough resistance to an invading force isn't exactly "peace price" material.

Zelenskyy has been an amazing leader through the war. But maybe some kind of Churchill prize for wartime leadership may be more apt than a peace prize.

Can't imagine this ending badly. We love to build up and even better to tare down

Way to early in my opinion
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 18, 2022, 03:22:04 PM
Compelling message from Arnold to the Russian people. Already at 30M views.

https://twitter.com/Schwarzenegger/status/1504426844199669762
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 18, 2022, 03:41:49 PM
Already at 30M views.

Yeah, but only because you linked to it here.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 18, 2022, 03:50:38 PM
I hope somebody reTrumps it so that the many users of that platform don't miss out, since they've been banned from Twitter.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 18, 2022, 04:05:26 PM
It was a nice speech.

Quote
I spoke to the American people this way last year on January 6, when a wild crowd was storming the U.S. Capitol trying to overthrow our government. There are moments that are so wrong that we have to speak up.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 18, 2022, 04:10:05 PM
Quote
And to the Russians who have been protesting on the streets against the invasion of Ukraine: The world has seen your bravery. We know that you have suffered the consequences of your courage. You have been arrested. You have been jailed and you’ve been beaten. You are my new heroes. You have the strength of Yury Petrovich Vlasov. You have the true heart of Russia.

But its just asking too much that a piano player safe in Canada say a few words of dissent.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 18, 2022, 04:40:07 PM
Quote
Workers being held hostage by Russian forces at the site of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in northern Ukraine have been blaring the Ukrainian national anthem every morning in defiance of their captors, The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

More than 200 staffers at the plant have been held there at gunpoint to complete around-the-clock routine tasks since Russian forces seized control of the site on the first day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine nearly three weeks ago.

The poorly-fed technicians and support staff — some of whom need medicine — are battling immense exhaustion after spending roughly 500 hours since February 23 on the job at the site of the world's worst nuclear-power disaster, according to the Journal.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: ScottF on March 18, 2022, 09:10:45 PM
Already at 30M views.

Yeah, but only because you linked to it here.

You’d be surprised at the reach the 6 of us have. I personally have at least a dozen people that see what I retweet. I think.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 19, 2022, 01:23:56 PM
Guess who's back?  Tell a friend. 

Welcome to Week 4 to World War Maybe. 

We're now in a period of flux.  Every day things have been getting better and better for Ukraine by holding on and attritting Russians.  The war is now balanced on the edge of a knife.  I'm now at 50/50. In the north, Keev has held on, the Russian encirclement has failed.  The Russians cannot coordinate large scale attacks, and time is on the side of the Ukrainians.  The Russian attempts to complete the encirclement have been met and the line is now extended to the west and the Russians seem to be running out of forces to line up or fuel to move them.  Russian forces coming in from Sumy and Hlukhiv are extended and their supply lines being raided hard.  The Ukrainians still have pockets at Sumy, Hlukhiv, Shostka, Konatop, and a big pocket between Chenihiv and Pryluky.  You don't want to be a Russian loggie trying to get food, fuel, and ammo to Russians trying to take Keev on the east bank.  This is where Territorial Defense can really make a difference.  On one hand, if the Ukrainians can keep this up, they can basically starve the Russians around east Keev of fuel and support.  On the other hand, if the Russians can collapse the Ukrainian resistance by shelling/rocketing Sumy, Konotop, or Chernihiv to dust, they can consolidate their main supply routes coming from Russia and complete the encirclement of Keev from the east. 

The Russian strategy overall has shifted from maneuver warfare to one of pounding Ukrainian defensive positions with superior artillery and air attacks.  The Russians have failed at maneuver warfare and this gives the operational initiative to the Ukrainians.  On the one hand, this means that in effect the Russians are tying a bunch of Ukrainian troops up defending Keev from attacks that are not coming.  On the other hand, the Russians cannot take advantage of this by being able to easily shift forces around the perimeter of the theatre while the Ukrainians can by having the benefit of interior lines.  Why defense is easier strategically than offense on multiple fronts.  If you can balance your defense right.  This gives the Ukrainians the opportunity to conduct counterattacks on the ends of the FEBA to the west of the Dnieper. 

The Ukrainians are holding on in the Donbass, which seems to be the new main effort by the Russians, maneuver wise.  If the Russians can break through around Izium or Balakillisk, they can encircle the Ukrainian forces holding the line.  But the Ukrainians have the benefit of having the Donets river to help them.  Russians trying to encircle further to the west around Kharkiv have been hampered by the same logistical problems as those to the Northeast. 

Mariupol is under siege and being ground down by Russian artillery.  This may end up being the first Russian operational victory, given enough time.  Eventually the Defenders of Mariupol will run out of food and supplies, particularly with the amount of civilians still in the city.  Again, the Russians have abandoned maneuver for a campaign of shelling/rocketing Ukrainian cities/strongpoints into rubble.

The Ukrainians are holding on, but it's difficult to tell how many casualties and equipment they have lost.  Ukrainian losses are not being reported as widely as Russian losses, which is a good thing.  But it makes assessing the situation difficult.  Are the Ukrainians close to collapse?  Are they running out of reserves, ammunition, food? It does not yet appear so, but it's hard to tell.  The Ukrainians are still making good choice counterattacks, which means they have not run out of reserves yet.  But eventually they may.  It just depends on what happens first.  The Russian army collapses in Ukraine, mass surrender, or the Ukrainian army collapses due to attrition from the larger Russian army and superior artillery.  I don't know, but the moral advantage is definately with the Ukrainians, but a few victories can make a difference to Russian morale.  But time still favors Ukraine, but just slightly. 

The Russian breakouts in the south have been contained, mainly because the Russians did not have the ability to take advantage of it.  Ukraine is just too big.  The distance between Svastapol and Keev is 560 miles.  Roughly the same distance between Paris and Berlin, or between Keev and Moscow.  You can't just storm across it, even if lots of it are the East European Plain. 

Ivan continues to hit Lviv to disrupt supplies coming from Poland, but they're running short on ballistic missiles, now reportedly utilizing their primo hypersonics on low value easily replaced targets. 

The Guvanator enters the fight.  Meanwhile the Russians keep accusing the US of having bioweapons labs in Ukraine, aided by some useful idiots in the US. 

The VKS continues to make some attack sorties.  Supposedly the Ukrainian AF is still out there, but it seems to me that the Russians are establishing air superiority in the east. 

The Ukrainians are still begging for air support, but NATO is having none of it.  The MiG-29 transfers were squashed again.  Not sure what is behind it all, so difficult to make a real call.  If it's fear of escalation, NATO is basically telegraphing that they'll sacrifice Ukraine rather than risk a nuclear exchange (Wurld Wur Treeeeeeee!).  If Putin is about to lose, he can then use tactical nukes on Lviv or Keev and pull some semblance of victory from the jaws of defeat if NATO steers clear of further risk.  The Ukrainians continue to utilize Turkish UAVs and US has promised to send new suicide drones. 

It's amazing how many tankies and white nationalists are rallying to how strong the Russian military is, despite all evidence to the contrary, that the Russian military is somewhere between the Keystone Cops and the French under the first 100 years of the Valois. 

Russian FSB are starting to round of Ukrainian dissidents.  Par for the course. 

Zelenskyy is taking Ukrainian NATO membership off the table in negotiations.  I can see why.  What's the point of joining NATO IF Ukraine survives and throws the Russians out?  Would the Germans ever risk it?  The Ukrainians are pretty fed up with the Germans, despite the abrupt changes in defense policy that they are attempting to grapple with.  30 years of peace did a number of the Germans. 

Meanwhile, NATO continues to send additional troops to eastern NATO countries.  Probably because the Baltics, Poland, and Romania don't trust the United States to come to the rescue if they are not already there.  Can't say I blame them. 

Pooter accuses Ukraine of developing nuclear weapons and that they were planning a nuclear attack on Moscow.

The Chinese have been slow to come to the aid of Russia.  The US has let slip, as many suspected, that the Chinese were aware of the attack on Ukraine and the Chinese asked for a postponement due to the Olympics.  But Grandpa President had a talk with Xi today and initial responses seem to be bad. 

Pooter will destroy Ukraine before taking an L.  He's making that abundantly clear.  NATO trying desperately to prevent nuclear war may actually make it more likely. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 19, 2022, 02:09:22 PM
Putin may have lost his mind. Literally. His own speech video, translated.

"The collective west...is focused on the destruction of Russia"

LOL.  Well, in a way he's right. The collective west is focused on destroying the economy of Russia.  Of giving Ukrainians as much help as possible to destroy the Russian military, including tens of thousands of Russian lives.  Of encouraging Russians to rise up against their government.  Of encouraging assassination and regime change. That's war, man.  LOL.  Pooter can make it all stop by pulling out of Ukraine. 

But that wasn't what Pooter really meant.  He was talking about "Pooter's Russia".  He's talking about his rule of Russia being destroyed.  He's trying to get the Russian people to identify themselves with himself.  It's the right, smart move.  He knows he's being threatened.  He is.  That's not crazy. 

I'm reminded of the theory that has been put forth that Napoleon did not take it to Russia hard enough in 1812, because he naturally saw Alexander as an ally rather than an enemy.  He could have announced the freedom of the serfs, but he really just wanted Russia to surrender and join in against England.  So he stripped away his best weapons, the political ones.  Because the Russian aristos were TERRIFIED that Napoleon was going to do that (announce freedom for the serfs).  Similarly, Pooter is TERRIFIED of the Russian people/military rising up against him. 

Funny how it seems to me that the only politician who has really hammered this home in a good way has been The Guvanator.  Can you imagine how pissed Pooter must have been when that came out?  The Russians have always been scared of their own people and army.  They have reason to be. 

Pooter's not crazy.  Maybe a sociopath or whatever but I think that is debatable.  He shows a pretty strong sense of self preservation.  He makes smart moves.  He just miscalculated his military's ability, Zelenskyy's ability, and the world response.  Who can blame him?  He's been getting away with all kinds of *censored* from 2008 to 2021.  Everybody seemed to know he was going to invade in 2022 and didn't do the things necessary to stop it.  It surely came as a surprise, because democracies just don't do the logical smart thing.  That's a weakness that dictators seem to have when coming up against democracies. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 19, 2022, 04:22:44 PM
The Gathering Detergent:

7 NATO countries now have stated that they would support a NATO peacekeeping mission into Ukraine led by Poland. 

Slovenia
Czechia
Poland
Latvia
Lithuania
Estonia
Denmark

Rumors that France and Slovakia would also vote "yes".

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1504940579863552000?cxt=HHwWgICz7fvez-IpAAAA

Not the best of sources, but the Polish proposal is.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/three-eu-country-leaders-take-train-kyiv-show-support-ukraine-2022-03-15/

It seems apparent that some of the other Eastern European members of NATO don't feel like just sitting still while their neighbors are fighting.  A bit understandable, since American reticence may be put down in part to geographical distance.  It might be different if Russia were invading Mexico, NATO country or not. 

I don't have any illusions that any peacekeeping mission would likely be drawn into a shooting war with Russia.  I understand that the Russians would have to make a conscious decision and they may actually decide not to engage since it would mean the end of them.  But similarly, the Russians understand that a peacekeeping force would end their chances of victory in Ukraine.  Accidents could happen, but are probably controllable unless you are looking for a reason to escalate.

It appears that conservative nationalist america's wish for Europeans to take care of Europe might actually come to fruition.  Honestly, Europe CAN handle Russia without the United States, except for the nuclear and possibly the naval threat. 

Pooter will most likely attempt to dissuade this course of action as much as possible by threatening war, including nuclear attack, on any nation entering Ukraine for any reason, peacekeeping or otherwise. 


On the other hand, a ground peacekeeping mission may not necessarily spell the end of Russia's chances, if the main objective of the mission is to secure humanitarian escape corridors.  But if those corridors are also used to bring supplies back into besieged areas, the Russians won't stand for it.  Plus more ground forces means more traffic jams and supposedly areas that the Russian's can't go.  A corridor out of Keev is going to prevent the Russians from ever encircling it and they know it.  Either way, it's not good for the Russians. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 19, 2022, 04:52:04 PM
Unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces counterattacking along the line of the M-07, northwest of Keev, near Borodyanka.  If true, it could threaten to turn the Russian's right flank in the north, and threaten their logistical base at Ivankiv, cutting the Russian forces to the northwest of Keev off from supply.  If it actually worked, it could threaten two Russian CAAs.  They would have to withdrawal from around Keev or risk being cut off. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 20, 2022, 10:29:51 AM
Satellite imagery seems to show the Russians digging in around NW Keev.  Assessments seem to agree that the campaign is transitioning.  The Russians failed to achieve their objectives through maneuver and are transitioning to a prolonged campaign of utilizing concentrated artillery and air attacks to take Ukraine a piece at a time in the east.  We've moved from Desert Storm, to Korea, to WW2, and now we're moving into a WW1 phase of protracted warfare along fixed lines with concentrated artillery and infantry/armor attacks for small gains.  The Russians are settling in for a long haul.  Can their troops do this in the middle of the eastern european winter?  How long until it warms up?  Russian morale is becoming more and more crucial. 

Losses among Russian general officers, in both the army and navy, point to the need for these officers to move to the front to coordinate activities and motivate troops.  Their deaths may indicate their lack of secure communications (discussed before), allowing them to be targeted and hunted down by Ukrainian SOF and drones. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russian-officer-elite-decimated-9-who-were-killed-in-combat-2022-3

For comparison, the United States has only lost seven general officers (all services) (I think) since WW2.  The Russians have lost almost twice that in three weeks.  This is not really a criticism of the Russian general officer corps.  They're displaying some courage and moving to the front to sort things out.  It is a general criticism of their communications capability and the leadership ability of their field grade officers and NCO corps.  It appears the Russians are losing their best people quickly. 

One assessment I read said that the fall of Mariupol was inevitable.  They're probably right IMO.  It could be two weeks or it could be two hours.  Severodonetsk will also likely eventually fall unless the Ukrainians can reinforce or step up their counter-attacks south of Chuhuiv in the next few days.  That's just a guess though.  But if Severdonetsk falls it will create a major breach of the Donets river defensive line in the Donbass.  The Russians may soon have two minor victories and an opening in the east.  I don't believe they would be able to encircle the eastern Ukrainian army,  they havn't been very successful at moving fast enough, and they lost most of the airborne and air assault infantry trying to take Keev, but they would be able to drive them from their defensive positions along the Donets river and create a better situation for them to exploit and to secure Mariupol.  The Ukrainians have a choice to use their reserves to counter-attack to the west of Keev, or shift these forces to reinforce in the Donbass.  Tough call. 

The Ukrainians were able to successfully defend against a maneuver campaign by the Russians.  But the Russians are adapting now, focusing their efforts one stronghold at a time, and utilizing their last real strengths.  As successful as they were on the defensive, the Ukrainians may not have enough of a reserve to successfully transition to the offensive and take advantage of the Russian's lack of mobility.  Or maybe they do and we'll see something. 

Key takeaway is that a war that the Russians wanted to win in 2 days could stretch on and on indefinitely. 


In the entertainment section, the chief diplomatic advisor to Zelenskyy invited Grandpa President to visit Keev after the NATO summit in Brussels next week. 

Quote
The adviser, Ihor Zhovka, said during a CNN interview Friday that 'one should not be afraid to [travel to Kyiv] if you are brave'

Quote
Zhovka also noted how leaders of three other nations have visited Kyiv and met with Zelensky.

'Well, you know, just this week, three prime ministers of three friendly nations – Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia – visited, personally, Kyiv, and they met personally with President Zelensky,' he responded.

'So why [doesn't] President Biden come to Ukraine to meet with the president?'

When questioned about the danger of Biden traveling to Kyiv, Zhovka said: 'Well, definitely it is dangerous when you have a war against my country, a war in Europe.'

LOL.  Pretty boss troll move.  Not sure if it's wise to embarrass one of your chief sources of support, but it's a boss move. 

The bigger story to me is the reaction online by Democrats on the idea of Biden going to Keev.  THEY LOST THEIR MINDS, lol.  Like Biden was the King of the chessboard, lol.  Forget the Presidents of Poland, Czechia, or Slovenia.  Those are just pawns, lol.  If Joe Biden dies, you would think that America would straight up collapse and fall into a thousand years of darkness.  Like, zero confidence in Kamala Harris. 

This isn't a real criticism of Grandpa President, whether he decides to accept this offer or not, which I don't think he will.  This is a commentary on the Democrats who can't even see any benefits to such a visit, while Zelenskyy is showing his ass to Pooter on a daily basis, sticking around Keev, dodging Russian assassination squads, and turning down escape helicopters from Grandpa President saying he needs ammo, not a ride. 

Enthusiasm for Zelenskyy is cooling in some quarters after Zelenskyy keeps asking for things that the Germans and Americans are not willing to give, like MiGs or "no fly zones", etc.  Some people who still don't support getting into a shooting war with Russia are able to forgive Zelenskyy, and some cannot. 


Overall, I'm reading a bunch of stuff where analysts are now saying that Russia cannot win conventionally.  Even grinding down the Ukrainians a square klick a day, every day, forever.  I'm still on the fence.  But it hazards the question of what Pooter will do if the war really turns against Russia or if the Poles enter the war like they're saying they want to. 

People have been *censored*ting the bed since day one, afraid of starting "World War III", which is still the major factor keeping the United States and NATO from entering the war in a more significant way.  Make no mistake, the way the Russians see it, the US and NATO is already involved in the war, overtly giving weapons and intel to the Ukrainians and waging a pretty hefty war against the Russia's economy.  Pooter is already coming up with a plan to force NATO to lift economic sanctions. 

I've never been personally attached to the concept that NATO or US involvement could lead to nuclear Armageddon.  But I would not rule out the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against targets in Ukraine.  Yes, there is a possibility of nuclear war.  Personally, I think we got here by being too careful and cautious. But we're in the *censored* now and it's going to get deeper.  I don't know what the reaction to utilizing a nuclear weapon in eastern europe will have on the Europeans or America as a whole.  People have been so scared over it it may cause panic.  Or it may cause a reaction that Pooter hasn't calculated on.  Scared people don't always react by surrendering. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 20, 2022, 11:00:38 AM
An interesting biographical aside:

The mayor of Keev is Vitali Klitschko.  He's a 50 year old former world heavyweight boxer/champion.  Seems to have had a pretty successful career. 

He is the older brother of Wladimir Klitschko, another world heavyweight boxer, I think not as successful, who's main accomplishment seems to have been impregnating Hayden Panettiere. The sizable difference between the heights and weights of Wlad, at 6'6" and 240, and Hayden at 5'0" and 117 lbs, prompted Ellen DeGeneres to question, on air, how they managed to make it work. 

Both brothers are sons of a former Soviet VVS one star general, who was involved in the cleanup at Chernobyl and eventually died of cancer. 

Both are involved in the defense of Keev.  Vitaly gave an animated response to a reporter who wanted to get his reaction to Pooter's claim that the Russians are only hitting military targets.  I didn't know CNN could air that kind of stuff. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZUPYZbtoo0



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 20, 2022, 11:39:11 AM
Unconfirmed report of Belarusian railway workers sabotaging the railway lines leading to Ukraine, making Russia unable to resupply their forces to the northwest of Keev by train.  If true it puts these forces in a perilous positions in the way of ammo, and could explain in part their decision to transition completely to a defensive posture there. 

If true it could present an opportunity to press counter-attacks on the Russian far right flank and to concentrate on the isolated forces themselves rather than their supply depots at Ivankiv. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 20, 2022, 02:00:03 PM
https://twitter.com/MollyMcKew/status/1505568472448786433?cxt=HHwWgoCzlZCj7eQpAAAA

Ukrainians continue to win the information battle, but not sure if it makes a difference except maybe in China.  Might not make a difference there either.  Maybe India.  I could be wrong.  Something is motivating Russian protestors.  Just don't know if it will make a difference.  But I have to say that it is probably making a difference in support. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 20, 2022, 09:14:48 PM
It should be pointed out that the entire male population from 18 to 60 was effectively drafted, some immediately took the field, others are serving in other capacities or haven't "fully" answered that call yet.

But if the Ukrainians are smart, a substantial portion of the group drafted is getting training for more than canon fodder/civil defense. That process isn't quick. Give them a few months and things could begin to shift on the Ukrainian side. But that would be a month 3+ item more likely than not.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 21, 2022, 09:12:13 AM
It should be pointed out that the entire male population from 18 to 60 was effectively drafted, some immediately took the field, others are serving in other capacities or haven't "fully" answered that call yet.

But if the Ukrainians are smart, a substantial portion of the group drafted is getting training for more than canon fodder/civil defense. That process isn't quick. Give them a few months and things could begin to shift on the Ukrainian side. But that would be a month 3+ item more likely than not.

As you say, it will take months to fully train and integrate draftees into good units.  Creating new units is probably a bad idea because they don't have trained NCOs or officers.  As far as I know, for the most part they are being integrated into territorial defense units or military police units.  One month minimum for basic combat training.  Another month minimum for some basic advanced stuff.  Another two weeks minimum training on specialized equipment.  That's just for light anti-tank infantry.  To train as replacements or new crews for mechanized infantry or tank units, another 2 months minimum.  That's depending on how many instructors you have.  You possibly can't train them all to good quality at the same time.  Questions remain if they have enough equipment to even train on.  The one thing the Ukrainians have in their corner is good morale, no shortage of volunteers/draftees, and a good knowlege of the land. 

On the other side, Russia is supposed to start new conscriptions in April.  Not sure how long training takes.  In the mean time they are supposedly bringing in experienced troops from Syria.  Not sure how many.  On the plus side they are experienced, on the negative they are unfamiliar with the terrain, the climate, and seem to be light infantry only, and not sure how motivated they are going to be. 

If Russia can bring in Belarus, it would change the nature of the war very quickly.  They're trained, have mechanized equipment, planes, are right on the border, and are poised to hit the soft belly of Ukraine to the west, cutting off logistical support coming in from Poland. 

But if Poland gets the green light from NATO and enters first, they could secure the lines of supply going into the interior and then the question becomes if Belarus or Russia would attack Polish troops.  Russia is already sabre rattling hard to dissuade and scare Poland from doing this.  The other question is if Poland would invoke Article 5 if their troops are attacked in Ukraine, which seems almost inevitable, or if Russia rocket attacks Poland itself. The Germans and United States seem to be doing whatever they can to not get drawn in due to fear of escalating Russia to using nuclear weapons. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 21, 2022, 02:59:17 PM
Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Russian tabloid, reportedly leaks Russian MOD casualty figures:

9,861 KIA
16,153 WIA

Total 26,014

Does not include troops that have surrendered or possibly just gone AWOL. 

This constitutes anywhere from 25 to 20% of the total combat personnel of the Russian forces in the Ukrainian theatre.  Pretty hefty casualties.  I suspect this rate may drop as the Russians stop trying to make costly frontal attacks. 

All this is unconfirmed.  But it's strange coming from a Russian newspaper. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 21, 2022, 03:16:39 PM
Quote
Western intelligence estimates say it is likely that at least 7,000 Russians have been killed and as many as 20,000 injured, and assuming that the combat forces are bearing the brunt of the casualties, that could mean up to a third of the main combat force is now out of action, Lee said.

“That’s a huge loss, and you can’t readily replace that,” he said. Russia can bring in new conscripts or call up more reservists, but that will dilute the capabilities of the overall force, “and that is not in Russia’s interest,” he said.

Washington Post, maybe not as credible as a Russian newspaper for conservatives, but still interesting.

It was probably Western hackers that infiltrated the Russian media and planted these overblown numbers. Just because they died IN Ukraine doesn't mean they died FROM Ukraine! Some of them had heart attacks and were in traffic accidents!
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 21, 2022, 04:29:36 PM
Additional unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian counterattacks against the Russian right flank, to the west and northwest of Kyiv. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 22, 2022, 02:37:07 PM
https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Operations%20Assessments%20March%2021.pdf

Quote
The Ukrainian General Staff continued to warn on March 20-21 that Russia seeks to bring Belarus into the war

The Ukrainian General Staff stated for the first time on March 21 that Russia is deploying unspecified support units to “direct combat operations” and said that Russia continues to deploy reserves from the Central and Eastern Military Districts (CMD and EMD).

They reported that Russian authorities are increasing the conscription age from 55 to 65 and aggressively recruiting 18-year-old students. The GUR reported conscripts in DNR/LNR forces are supplied with military equipment from the 1970s. Local social media imagery depicted new conscripts equipped with the Mosin-Nagant bolt action rifle—which has not been produced since 1973 and was first produced in 1891.

More reports of Ukrainian counter-attacks on Russian right flank, west of Keev. 

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-22-22/h_f5bf34749e0427f7c1f5ab841ba49bf3

Grandpa President says Pooter is thinking about using chemical weapons. 

Quote
"They are also suggesting that Ukraine has biological and chemical weapons in Ukraine. That’s a clear sign he’s considering using both of those. He’s already used chemical weapons in the past, and we should be careful of what’s about to come."

Putin “knows there’ll be severe consequences because of the united Nato front,” he said, without specifying what actions the alliance would take.

The Ukrainian military claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces have stockpiles of ammunition and food that will last for “no more than three days”. Officials said the situation was similar with fuel. It also claimed about 300 Russia servicemen refused to carry out orders in the Okhtyrka district of the Sumy region. The claims have not been independently verified.

Earlier this month, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan spoke with Nikolay Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, warning him of consequences for “any possible Russian decision to use chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine”. The White House did not specify what those consequences would be.

Escaping Mariupol

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-europe-edf7240a9d990e7e3e32f82ca351dede

Quote
We were the only international journalists left in the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, and we had been documenting its siege by Russian troops for more than two weeks.

The deaths came fast. On Feb. 27, we watched as a doctor tried to save a little girl hit by shrapnel. She died.

A second child died, then a third. Ambulances stopped picking up the wounded because people couldn’t call them without a signal, and they couldn’t navigate the bombed-out streets.

The doctors pleaded with us to film families bringing in their own dead and wounded, and let us use their dwindling generator power for our cameras. No one knows what’s going on in our city, they said.

Everybody was asking, please tell us when the war will be over. I had no answer.

Every single day, there would be a rumor that the Ukrainian army was going to come to break through the siege. But no one came.

By this time I had witnessed deaths at the hospital, corpses in the streets, dozens of bodies shoved into a mass grave. I had seen so much death that I was filming almost without taking it in.

We watched smoke rise from a maternity hospital. When we arrived, emergency workers were still pulling bloodied pregnant women from the ruins.

We had recorded so many dead people and dead children, an endless line. I didn’t understand why he thought still more deaths could change anything.

The Russian Embassy in London put out two tweets calling the AP photos fake and claiming a pregnant woman was an actress. The Russian ambassador held up copies of the photos at a U.N. Security Council meeting and repeated lies about the attack on the maternity hospital.

We crossed 15 Russian checkpoints. At each, the mother sitting in the front of our car would pray furiously, loud enough for us to hear.

We were the last journalists in Mariupol. Now there are none.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 24, 2022, 05:45:28 PM
Dirt Wars: A New Mustardy Terror

Dirt Wars II: The Russians Strike Back

and now the third installment

Dirt Wars III: The Return of the Red Line

Grandpa President threatens to destroy the world by actually killing a Russian soldier if Russia kills Ukrainians in a particular manner instead of killing them the old fashioned way. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/24/biden-says-us-would-respond-to-russia-if-putin-uses-chemical-or-biological-weapons.html

Quote
“We will respond if he uses it,” Biden said, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. “The nature of the response depends on the nature of the use.”

I mean, I suppose instead of killing a single Russian soldier and starting WORLD WAR 3!tm Grandpa could be referring to just sending a nasty email.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/23/us/politics/biden-russia-nuclear-weapons.html

Quote
Senator Jack Reed, a Rhode Island Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee, said on Wednesday that if Mr. Putin used a weapon of mass destruction — chemical, biological or nuclear — “there would be consequences” even if the weapon’s use was confined to Ukraine. Mr. Reed said radiation from a nuclear weapon, for instance, could waft into a neighboring NATO country and be considered an attack on a NATO member.

“It’s going to be a very difficult call, but it’s a call that not just the president but the entire NATO Council will have to make,” Mr. Reed told reporters, referring to the governing body of the Western alliance.

That's cute.  Good luck getting NATO to agree on anything. 

I've finally figured out what "Strategic Ambiguity" is about.  It's for politicians to have an escape hatch. 

Quote
One major issue the Tiger Team is looking at is the threshold that could prompt the alliance to use military force in Ukraine. Mr. Biden has made clear that he is enormously reluctant to do so, fearing that direct confrontation with Russia could escalate the conflict beyond control. “That’s World War III,” he noted recently.

Trademarked

Quote
A senior administration official said any use of a “small” tactical nuclear bomb by Russia — even inside Ukraine and not directed at a NATO member — would mean that “all bets are off” on the United States and NATO staying out of the war. But when pushed, the official declined to lay out the responses under discussion.

A voodoo doll of a Russian soldier will be urinated upon by the CJCS. 

I find it startling that the United States is destroying whatever deterrent ability it might have had by telegraphing just how far they would go to avoid actually having to kill a single Russian soldier.  Because of World War III (TM).


The flip side of this is that the NBC gurus I know on the interwebs see very little signs that the Russians are about to use chemical weapons.  They are looking for signs such as moving chemical troops up, or handing out new gas masks, spreading out, etc.  I think the #1 argument against these points is that the Russian Army's incompetence cannot be overrated and I'm unsure if the Kremlin even cares about it's soldiers.  Certainly killing hundreds of Russians for thousands of Ukrainians would actually be them winning for a change. 


OK, so the tide has turned.  I'm pretty onboard now that we're beyond 50-50, because of the logistical difficulties the Russians are facing and the Ukrainians seem to have enough of a reserve to make counterattacks on the Russian's right flank, which seems to have been confirmed.  It appears the Ukrainians are threatening to envelop the 35th and 36th CAAs.  If it occurred it would be a significant, and I can't overstress how significant, victory for Ukraine.  Mariupol is sucking up Russian logistics capabilities.  Shelling a city to rubble takes a lot of ammo.  Ammo is heavy.  They're already short on trucks due to maintenance issues and ambushes. 

All this simply increases the likelihood of a chemical or nuclear attack on Ukraine.  Grandpa President and NATO being vocal about response actually helps, though the ambiguity of the warning and the general fear from some quarters works against effective deterrence.   Pooter might think that the US and NATO are just bluffing.  Maybe he would be right. 


Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 24, 2022, 06:43:31 PM
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121/

I feel that Eliot Cohen has personally attacked me with this article, so I must respond. 

Quote
Why Can’t the West Admit That Ukraine Is Winning?
America has become too accustomed to thinking of its side as stymied, ineffective, or incompetent.

Well, I agree with that.  On the other hand, there was plenty of incompetence going around in Afghanistan and Iraq and the Pentagon and frankly in American living rooms over the past 20 years. 

Quote
Analysts and commentators have grudgingly declared that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been blocked, and that the war is stalemated. The more likely truth is that the Ukrainians are winning.

Winning in the sense they havn't lost or are not losing?  Sure.  Winning as in pushing Russian positions back?  Just started happening after this article, Eliot.  Winning as in they are going to push the Russians out of Ukraine and really WIN?  There is a long way to go to get there.  A lot of Russians to kill.  But the war is indeed trending in that direction. 

Quote
So why can’t Western analysts admit as much? Most professional scholars of the Russian military first predicted a quick and decisive Russian victory; then argued that the Russians would pause, learn from their mistakes, and regroup; then concluded that the Russians would actually have performed much better if they had followed their doctrine; and now tend to mutter that everything can change, that the war is not over, and that the weight of numbers still favors Russia.

Well, I'm not a professional, but not quite an amateur either.  I'm like the towel boy for the Boston Redsox.  But yeh, I said all that.  Because it is all true.  Back to what do you mean by winning, Eliot?  I said the Russians would win in 2-4 days.  If they had followed their doctrine and not turned out to be incompetent.  Turns out they suck.  I was wrong.  But I am correct that if they had followed their doctrine and used their Air Force effectively they could have done a lot better.   I'll admit that things don't change on a dime, but armies do tend to learn from their mistakes.  The Russians have indeed switched gears and are now using their artillery and air power more effectively, though brutally.  But given enough time an an exhausted Ukraine, they could still win this way.  Thing is that Ukraine doesn't appear to be exhausted now. 

Quote
Their analytic failure will be only one of the elements of this war worth studying in the future.

Oh, FO.  Yes we were all wrong.  But I don't see how we could have known that the Russian Army were the Keystone Cops. 

Quote
The Ukrainian military has proved not only motivated and well led but also tactically skilled, integrating light infantry with anti-tank weapons, drones, and artillery fire to repeatedly defeat much larger Russian military formations.

They keypoint here is that the Ukrainian political and military leadership seems to have risen to heroic heights.  Yes, it was something I did not foresee, but this is what happens when you go with most likely courses of action. 

Quote
The reluctance to admit what is happening on the ground in Ukraine stems perhaps in part from the protectiveness scholars feel for their subject (even if they loathe it on moral grounds), but more from a tendency to emphasize technology (the Russians have some good bits), numbers (which they dominate, though only up to a point), and doctrine.

1.  Not a scholar, just a towel boy. 
2.  I love my subject
3. The emphasis was on the following
a. The initiative given the offense
b. The weight of Russian airpower and indirect fires, including rockets and cruise missiles. 

Quote
The Russian army remains in some ways very cerebral, and intellectuals can too easily admire elegant tactical and operational thinking without pressing very hard on practice.

You got me wrong, Eliot.  I've always said the Russians were *censored*.  I just didn't expect that much from the Ukrainians and a mountain of *censored* coming down on you can still bury you. 

Quote
Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day.

Yes, Eliot.  But the other half of the picture is that we're getting incomplete look at Ukrainian casualties.  3K?  4K?  Probably from their best trained troops. 

Anyways.  It goes from here to other ways of saying the Russians suck.  Yes they do.  Nothing new here.  But the level of suctitude is indeed staggering.  But don't try telling the tankies and the white christian nationalists. 

The real story here is how effective the leadership of Ukraine has been and how strong the information war has been for them and how the support of NATO and the EU, while not everything the Ukrainians would like it to be, has bolstered the defense.  In particular, the intelligence cooperation that is occuring between NATO and Ukraine.  Don't forget that the US and NATO have AWACS and Rivet Joints flying constantly right over the boarder over Poland.  I'm hopeful that this intel is being piped directly to Ukraine, with plenty of advising going on.  I wouldn't be surprised if SACEUR is basically a Jiminy Cricket for Valerii Zaluzhnyi. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 24, 2022, 07:21:09 PM
That's cute.  Good luck getting NATO to agree on anything. 

I've finally figured out what "Strategic Ambiguity" is about.  It's for politicians to have an escape hatch. 

Well duh. But to be fair NATO has always been a bipolar institution: if the U.S. wants it dictates what 'NATO' policy is, and when it wants to kick the can it says that Europe needs to make a decision. Nothing thus far has ever stopped the U.S. acting unilaterally when it felt like it. So as you say, it's a game of political football, not a question about requiring anyone to agree on anything. If the U.S. decided Putin had done something unacceptable with a WMD, it would just be a question of selling their response to Europe; permission would not be required.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 24, 2022, 07:47:55 PM

Well duh. But to be fair NATO has always been a bipolar institution: if the U.S. wants it dictates what 'NATO' policy is, and when it wants to kick the can it says that Europe needs to make a decision.

This seems like a sweeping claim, and I would like more historical background on why "NATO has always been a bipolar institution".  I mean, are you suggesting it is "bipolar" in that it has two main elements, or heads?  Or that it swings between moods in the way a person with bipolar disorder would? 

Quote
Nothing thus far has ever stopped the U.S. acting unilaterally when it felt like it. So as you say, it's a game of political football, not a question about requiring anyone to agree on anything.

Eh.  You're forgetting the "narrative".  The one that stopped the US from acting unilaterally after the Bush II admin.  But anyways, narrative. 

Quote
If the U.S. decided Putin had done something unacceptable with a WMD, it would just be a question of selling their response to Europe; permission would not be required.

What exactly is the difference between "selling their response to Europe", and getting "permission"? 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 24, 2022, 08:50:28 PM
This seems like a sweeping claim, and I would like more historical background on why "NATO has always been a bipolar institution".  I mean, are you suggesting it is "bipolar" in that it has two main elements, or heads?  Or that it swings between moods in the way a person with bipolar disorder would?

Bipolar in the sense that it can be whatever institution is convenient at a given time. It's not like the U.S. answers to the 'lesser' members in terms of military police actions within its vicinity. An example, to wit, is the bombing of Serbia/Kosovo, which at the time seemed like a unilateral U.S. action even thought the Wiki page describes it as a NATO action. Half the country just assumed it was Clinton diverting attention in the first place. Likewise we could perhaps describe Iraq 2.0 as being a more or less unilateral action that was nevertheless sold as a 'joint' action (getting some non-U.S. forces over there helped sell that narrative). And in terms of funding we've had a few discussions here about it, but basically it looks as though the U.S. was free to spend lots of $$ on bases and etc. all over the place, even though these were 'NATO' forces; so there's the question of funding and whether 'NATO' is only a result of funds put in by joint members, or whether any NATO member such as the U.S. placing its own forces around counts as NATO. I'm not an expert of this, but even cursory inspection seems to show that the U.S./NATO relationship is definitely not that of member/parent-organization. The other members, maybe, but the U.S. has been 'in charge' of military affairs in Europe since WWII.

Quote
Eh.  You're forgetting the "narrative".  The one that stopped the US from acting unilaterally after the Bush II admin.  But anyways, narrative.

It seems to me nothing much changed after Bush II. Libya. Syria. Syria would have gone further if the proxy forces had won. There was a notable lull under Trump, probably because (for better or worse) he didn't care about anyone's agenda. Probably didn't even understand anyone's agenda.

Quote
What exactly is the difference between "selling their response to Europe", and getting "permission"?

The former implies they're going to do it either way and need to get the others to 'agree' that the reason is justified, which requires selling a narrative. The latter implies that they actually will not engage in an action without a joint agreement.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 25, 2022, 12:54:48 PM
Vagueness about what, exactly NATO's response to Putin using chemical or nuclear weapons would be is probably for the best. Being specific would mean arguing about the appropriateness of the response, even without the GOP doing so in particularly bad faith. It's easy to gain consensus on "Bad things should happen if Russia uses forbidden weapons" but less so get agreement about what exactly those bad things should be.

The West also has a credibility problem on the more severe end of possible repercussions. If Biden said "we will nuke Russian bases if Russia uses a nuke," it would be a lot easier for Putin to go "bet" and blow up Kyiv. Especially since he would be able to a straightforward cost-benefit analysis.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 04:30:29 PM
Some good word salad.  I'm starting to see the benefits of "narrative". 

For instance, just going with "narrative" means that you don't really have to have a definition of what "unilateral means".  Apparently you can have the "narrative" be that Allied Force/Noble Anvil was a unilateral action despite it being authorized by NATO and many the French, Italians, British, Belgians, Danish, Dutch, Norwegian, Turks, and Canadians all taking part with the United States.  I guess the "narrative" was that NATO was just doing what Clinton wanted so he could have a distraction. 

Not having a definition of "unilateral" means that you can call the Iraq War unilateral, despite six other countries sending troops for the invasion and 33 other countries sending troops for the non-occupation phase.  The benefits of a "narrative" means that you don't need a definition. 

Because then you wouldn't need to see that Libya was also a NATO authorized and group effort. 

It means that you can say that the U.S. has been "in charge of military affairs in Europe since WWII" without any historical knowlege or context.  You don't have to read a book on the history of NATO and give examples.  You just have to watch MSNBC or Glen Beck and you can have a narrative. 


See, my problem with "narrative" is that is seems to suggest a reality different from an objective reality.  It seems to be an alternative to truth.  Narratives are just created and then thrown out into the arena to battle and may the best "narrative" win.  I believe this is a byproduct of too much domestic politics.  I think the idea of "narrative" was born from domestic political messaging in the United States, and one's understanding and feeling for it depends on your level of skin you have in the domestic political game. 

I understand the concept as it applies sometimes to domestic politics because domestic politics so often comes down to arguments concerning values, while more often the questions regarding foreign politics comes down to arguments of fact.  But as a whole, as a believer in truth and an objective reality, I find the idea of "narrative" to be somewhat... unreal, self-serving, and dastardly.  I mean, if you are a Relativist, go ahead.  But that's step one to being outside my fence. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 05:25:15 PM
Update:

Unconfirmed reports last night of counterattacks by the Ukrainians breaking out from Mykolayv towards Kherson, threatening the supply lines for the Russian forces besieging Mariupol going through Crimea.  I'll admit I didn't quite see that.  I figured the best route to relieve Mariupol would have been a direct thrust coming from the direction of Zaporizhzia.  But this way seems more clever, plus it seems the highway running from Zaporizhzhia (a double dose of zh, for extra pimpness) doesn't seem to be high grade, making a mechanized attack problematic in all this rain.  It's also 150 mi from Pimptown to Mariupol. 

I'm not sure if it's the best idea.  My opinion would be that the Ukrainians should concentrate their reserves and focus on the counterattacks to the west of Keev to encircle the two Russian CAAs there.  If they can eliminate them, they can then focus all that force relieved from Keev to a counterattack on the south.  But there are plenty of reasons not to go the mathematically pure way.  The humanitarian crisis in Mariupol.  The moral effect of losing it.  And the idea that the logistics are not in place to support more heavy units to the northern counterattacks.  I don't know where the reserves are coming from to mount the counterattacks from Mykolaiyv, but I'm guessing they were released from Odessa when it became obvious that the Russians wouldn't be making an amphibious assault there.  So the logistics in the south would have been more capable and ready to support this than overloading in the north.  But that is all speculation. 

Russian state media is framing the war as an "existential crisis" for Russia, which is exactly the criteria Pooter lays out for using nuclear weapons.  Russian state media is flat out saying that a peacekeeping force by a NATO member (Poland) into Ukraine means nuclear war.  The Russians have also been keeping up with their accusations of Ukrainians bio/chem weapons labs around Sumy, one of the towns they bypassed and were unable to take on the Northwest front.  This leads some people to believe that Sumy will be the testing ground for Pooter utilizing chemical weapons in Ukraine.  Still doesn't seem to be any other signs.  I'm curious if the intel sources we had inside the Kremlin before the war started are still in place, or if recent shakeups in the Kremlin have eliminated it.  I'm hoping that the CIA/NSA has some real advance warning in case of a chemical attack. 

Grandpa President spoke with members of the 82nd Airborne in Poland about 6 hours ago.  He was obviously off script and I wish he wouldn't do that.  Starts with a joke about not jumping.  Doesn't really go over well because those nutjobs fine dirt darts brave men and women in the 82nd all dream of getting combat jump wings.  It stiffens their lady bits.  Then he goes into talking about himself as a Senator.  Reminds everyone they volunteered, lol.  Goes into uniqueness of America, sounded like something he'd done before, but at least he's sticking to some script.  Not sure how it applies but he does a good job talking about American military leadership.  Talks about his experience with Ukraine.  Begins praising Ukrainians, but really rambling.  Says to those assembled "you're going to see when you get there" about Ukrainian courage.  I'm sure that was a mistake but that's what happens when you go off script.  Bad grandpa!  Quotes Albright who said "we're the essential nation".  I felt the dirt shift over Reagan's Tomb.  Says the troops are in the midst of a fight between Democracy and Russian Oligarchy.  Talks about the argument against democracy due to time for consensus.  Dubya pauses from painting for a slight moment.  Says democracy is going to prevail.  Tells the dirt darts fine airborne all american sky troopers that they are the finest fighting force in the history of the world.  LOLOLOL "Partially because you've had to fight so much over the past 20 years".  Talks about the amount of sacrifice the current generation of soldiers have had to made, eclipsing past generations.  Ehhh.  Now he's sucking up.  I'll allow it.  "We have only one sacred obligation, equip those who go to war, take care of their families".  Talks about his son.  Thanks the troops.  "We are the organizing principle in the world".  If this keeps up Reagan may actually burst out of the ground and then WATCH OUT!  World War III will be inevitable.  Calls the dirt darts airborne "the best" again.  Thank you thank you thank you.  "You're spreading the faith". 

Better than I thought it would be off script.  Hit some good notes.  Not stirring.  But short and earnest.  8 out of 10.  Not sure how much better he can get.  He's not a natural speaker anymore, on the caliber of Reagan, Obama, or even Bush II or Kennedy.  But he can bring a great deal of earnestness.  I believe him 100%. 


There has been a bunch of praise recently on how well the Ukrainians have been managing their resources.  It's true.  It's so good to the point that I have to believe that the Ukrainian General Staff is getting help.  Like somewhere in a basement in Brunssum, 100 NATO staff members are plugged into their counterparts in Ukraine.  Maybe that's just a fantasy.  But I know there is "information sharing" going on. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 05:39:59 PM
Apparently Pooter made a live address earlier this morning.  I havn't seen it personally.  Reports that he whined about Hollywood not making any movies about the Russian contribution to WWII.  (Enemy at the Gates was quite good.  The love scene was famous, or infamous, around US Army personnel at the time.  T-34 was also quite good and checks all the above blocks, but it was made by the Russians, was obvious propaganda since it was a made up story, but it was still good).  Claimed that progressives were trying to cancel Russia.  Touched on gender extremists and Harry Potter. I don't know if any of this is true, but if it is, I can see why he got along so well with The Lord High Savior of America L'Orange.   
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 05:43:31 PM
US Government announces they will accept a horde of 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.  There goes the neighborhood. We'll all be eating pierogis and borscht by next year.   
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 05:47:44 PM
Macron says that France is going to lead a humanitarian relief effort for Mariupol, alongside Greece and Turkey.  LOL, Pooter got the Turks and Greeks to cooperate!  Says he's going to discuss it with Pooter in 48 to 72 hours.  I'm guessing he's going to try and evacuate 100,000 people by sea.  We'll see.  I'd love to see it happen. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 25, 2022, 05:49:42 PM
US Government announces they will accept a horde of 100,000 Ukrainian refugees.  There goes the neighborhood. We'll all be eating pierogis and borscht by next year.

OMG! But have they been VACCINATED?!!! We all know how important that is to conservatives. Can anyone stop them from making anchor babies?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 05:52:22 PM
OMG! But have they been VACCINATED?!!! We all know how important that is to conservatives. Can anyone stop them from making anchor babies?

It's worse.  They're all going to vote democrat and bring their harmful ideas about anti-corruption and democracy and concepts of political leadership to America.  Insidious.  Call the Adeptus Astartes.  Exterminatus. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 05:59:58 PM
You know, since the war is transitioning to a new, slower phase, I think it is time for the United States and NATO to rethink giving the Ukranians weapons systems that require additional training.  Tanks. Self-Propelled Artillery.  Maybe air defense systems other than MANPADS.  Jets.  Reaper drones. HEMTTs. 

If this thing is going on for a long haul, it's possible that the Ukrainians are still fighting this war this fall or next year in the Donbass or Crimea.  Not sure how likely.  The alternatives are Russia quits or escalates.  I honestly think it more likely that Russia quits or Russia escalates, combined, has the greater probability of occurring. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 25, 2022, 06:02:27 PM
How do they spin quitting in the state media? Put up a mission accomplished banner? Throw a parade for the troops who didn't die? I was going to say undead troops, but you know.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 06:02:51 PM
Pooter is moving the goalposts apparently.  Saying victory is liberating Donbass, instead of, you know, trying to topple the whole government.  Giving up the Keev front in the north and northwest.  Basically he's saying he's keeping the Russian troops up there as a decoy to occupy the Ukrainians while he refocuses on the Donbass.  Sucks to be Russian. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 06:06:00 PM
How do they spin quitting in the state media? Put up a mission accomplished banner? Throw a parade for the troops who didn't die? I was going to say undead troops, but you know.

No idea.  Quitting itself seems unlikely.  But stranger things have happened. At the end of the day, Pooter can probably claim anything he wants in state media as long as he has an iron grip on whatever security forces he's using inside Russia, and maintains a certain degree of popularity, which I am uncertain has been shifted greatly among rural uneducated Russians. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 07:06:07 PM
So, reports are that Kherson has been retaken.  Which would mean the reports of the counterattacks coming out of Mykolaiyv were true.  Which is kind of astounding given the reports that Kherson was being held by the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division, plus elements of naval infantry and the 20th Guards Motor Rifle Division was to the north.  I guess the Russians can't even put up a defense as well as the Ukrainians, or they're simply worn down and exhausted.  Now, the opportunity presents itself to cut accross Kherson Oblast to the east and take back Melitopol and Berdyans'k.  Or they could head south and threaten Sevastopol.  Either way could be a way to take pressure off of Mariupol. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 07:21:10 PM

He is the older brother of Wladimir Klitschko, another world heavyweight boxer, I think not as successful, who's main accomplishment seems to have been impregnating Hayden Panettiere.

For a quick segway, back on the home front, Hayden Panettiere involved in a bar fight alongside ex Brian Hickerson, who is on probation for corporal injury of a cohabitant and intimidating a witness (Panettiere) with other patrons who were criticized for leaving a poor tip.

Meanwhile, Wladimir has been a constant presence at the side of his brother during his appearances with the media in Kyiv. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 07:29:14 PM
The Ferengis are insisting that Capitalism is the solution to winning the war in Ukraine, by simply offering Russian soldiers more and more $$$ and amnesty to defect with their equipment, despite the fact that this offer has already been in place and I've only heard of one single Russian tanker taking the Ukrainians up on the offer, after the rest of his unit was killed and he was abandoned by the rest of his crew. 

I think there is a difference between actual capitalists, who make their money often because they understand human behavior, and capitalist cheerleaders, who just understand that capitalism is the solution to everything and don't understand human behavior at all.  Homo Economicus. "Why would anyone not act in their own interests"? 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 07:35:16 PM
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu reportedly had a heart attack, explaining his recent disappearance over the last 10-11 days.  According to Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the head of Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine. 

Sure.  His heart was probably attacked by a 9mm Wolf piece of lead poison. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 08:43:11 PM
Report that Ukrainian Defense Ministry officials have stated that they have begun to see Chemical/Biological weapons antidote kits issued to Russian forces across Ukraine. 

If true, this would be a major warning sign of a possibly chemical attack in Ukraine, most likely using Sarin, and most likely in heavily concentrated urban areas presenting stiff defense and interfering with Russian advances.  The most likely point would by the city of Sumy, which the Russians have accused of having a chemical/biological weapons lab. 

The purpose of this escalation would be similar to nuclear escalation detailed in the Armageddon thread.  Force NATO to pressure Ukraine to accept a cease fire giving Russia the Donbass, allowing Russia to escape with a victory.  It would be safer than a tac nuke escalation since NATO doesn't have chemical weapons to respond with.  But I'm unconvinced that this would be the response by NATO.  It's more likely that NATO finally enters the war conventionally rather than force Ukraine to give up the Donbass.  Public pressure is already building and will only continue to grow in the US and Europe.  Initial fears of nuclear Armageddon will dissipate due to the sunshine of reality and realpolitik. 

Of course, NATO entry to the war conventionally would indeed increase the risk of a nuclear escalation by Russia.  Not Armageddon, but probably something more like I laid down in the other Armageddon thread.  Limited tactical nuclear use to raise the risk of strategic release (Armageddon) to force NATO to negotiate and give Russia the Donbass.  Either way, the only weapon Russia has left is fear and intimidation.  They don't want Armageddon.  They just want NATO and the US to fear it enough to give them what they want. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 25, 2022, 08:53:55 PM
I'd pay good money for the dude here who could necro the thread with that krot who though the Russian T-72 upgrades made it the bee's knees. 

I want to dance on his corpse. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 26, 2022, 12:38:30 AM
Quote
For a quick segway

I really loathe you for this.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: kidv on March 26, 2022, 01:53:27 PM

The mayor of Keev is Vitali Klitschko.  He's a 50 year old former world heavyweight boxer/champion.  Seems to have had a pretty successful career. 

He is the older brother of Wladimir Klitschko, another world heavyweight boxer, I think not as successful, who's main accomplishment seems to have been impregnating Hayden Panettiere.


"Wladimir Wladimirowitsch Klitschko[a] . . . is a Ukrainian former professional boxer who competed from 1996 to 2017. He held the world heavyweight championship twice, including the unified WBA (Super), IBF, WBO, IBO, and Ring magazine titles. A strategic and intelligent boxer, Klitschko is considered to be one of the best heavyweight champions of all time. . . .

As an amateur, Klitschko represented Ukraine at the 1996 Olympics, winning a gold medal in the super-heavyweight division.  . . .

 In September 2015, Klitschko was ranked as the world's best active boxer, pound for pound, by BoxRec. . .

During Klitschko's reign as world heavyweight champion, his fights regularly generated a global television audience of 300–500 million viewers. Klitschko holds records for the longest cumulative heavyweight title reign of all time, with 4,382 days as world heavyweight champion, and most fighters beaten for the world heavyweight championship, at 23. He also holds records for the most wins and title defenses of the unified championship in professional boxing history. . . . Klitschko was inducted into the International Boxing Hall of Fame Class of 2021, having been elected in his first year of eligibility. . . .


Both Wladimir and Vitali hold PhDs in sports science . . ."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wladimir_Klitschko (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wladimir_Klitschko)


Get the joke, but don't dis Wladimir's accomplishments.  The brothers are jointly impressive.

[Also, this may severely misapprehend the relative fame of Wladimir Klitschko and Hayden Panettiere.]

[apologies if this is sarcastic understatement, but in the present circumstances I wouldn't want anyone to have a limited impression of either of the Klitschko brothers]
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 26, 2022, 02:23:22 PM
Well duh. But to be fair NATO has always been a bipolar institution: if the U.S. wants it dictates what 'NATO' policy is, and when it wants to kick the can it says that Europe needs to make a decision. Nothing thus far has ever stopped the U.S. acting unilaterally when it felt like it. So as you say, it's a game of political football, not a question about requiring anyone to agree on anything. If the U.S. decided Putin had done something unacceptable with a WMD, it would just be a question of selling their response to Europe; permission would not be required.

Not quite?

Basically every NATO operation in Yugoslavia was the EU dragging a disinterested and reluctant Bill Clinton around. "We called the shots" only in the sense they were operationally incapable/unwilling to risk it without US support.

Bush Admin and response to 9/11 was American response and American led. The 2003 invasion of Iraq wasn't NATO although a lot of NATO was present.

Fast forward to the Obama Admin where NATO is "feeling their oats" again and we get France, Italy, and to a lesser extent the UK getting a disinterested and reluctant Barak Obama to agree with what they want to do, because again, they were operationally incapable/unwilling to try going into Libya without the US Military being there to lead the charge.

My understanding of things right now is that NATO is having to work overtime to keep their members in Eastern Europe from charging into Ukraine to render assistance on their own.

And Russian use of WMD's on NATO's doorstep without a strong response from NATO(or internally within Russia) sends a clarion call throughout the globe that makes WMD's come a far more widespread problem than they are right now. Concerns about nuclear Armageddon right now not withstanding.

Basically doing nothing at that point creates a near certainty that we will encounter it in the remaining lifetime of many adults living today.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 26, 2022, 03:35:45 PM
[apologies if this is sarcastic understatement, but in the present circumstances I wouldn't want anyone to have a limited impression of either of the Klitschko brothers]

Eh.  No apologies needed. I believe that I stressed that Wladimir's career as a fighter may not have been as impressive as Vitali's, which I believe is still true.  And honestly, I believe that impregnating Hayden Panettiere would be the main life accomplishment of any man who had 1 & 1/2 feet and 130 lbs on her.  I honestly feel that this is impressive.  Like, if there were a medal for it, it would go above Silver Star but below DSC.  So, congrats Wladi. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 26, 2022, 04:24:50 PM
And honestly, I believe that impregnating Hayden Panettiere would be the main life accomplishment of any man who had 1 & 1/2 feet and 130 lbs on her.  I honestly feel that this is impressive.  Like, if there were a medal for it, it would go above Silver Star but below DSC.  So, congrats Wladi.

Not that complicated, she gets to be on top. A few other positioning options would easily work as well. Heck, "missionary" would do the job as that position has no "top."  ;)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 26, 2022, 04:48:45 PM
Hey, man.  We're supposed to be keeping it PG in here.  Or American PG.  Cussing and violence but no Es-Ee-Ex. 

Keep talking this way and you'll bring back the Furrys. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 26, 2022, 07:45:54 PM
So much stuff today it's hard to keep track of it all.  And it's not even a big news day. 

Most of the chatter seems to be about Biden in Poland.  Made a big speech in Warsaw.  I havn't listened to it yet, but I heard it was alright to good.  I did hear that he mentioned regime change in Russia at the end of the speech and that half the Twitterati went nuts saying it was his "Reagan Tear Down This Wall Moment", and the other half went nuts going "Danger Danger Danger".  Whitehouse then walked it back, making everyone look like cac.  Once again the danger of having Grandpa President go off script.  I need to listen to the speech myself.

Zelenskyy made a speech to the EU.  He basically called out each country separately.  But he saved his best call out for Hungary's Victor Orban.  LOL.  It was a doozey.  I'd recommend watching this speech if you had to watch just one.  Zelenskyy is the one making the most moves and is at the center of the matter.  I can't find a translated video in full on youtube, but I did manage to find an English transcript. 

https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/promova-prezidenta-ukrayini-volodimira-zelenskogo-na-zasidan-73809

It doesn't have the same thrust as watching Zelenskyy deliver it, even with subtitles though. 

Ukrainian positions in the east that have been under constant attack from artillery for weeks now are beginning to show strain.  Despite everything that has been going their way, the war is not over, and even though I believe the odds now favor Ukraine, I'd still put it only at 60-40 Ukraine.  Russia can still grind away week by week until they run out of ammo.  These Russian forces in the Donbass are the only ones that didn't venture far into Ukraine and have been able to maintain their supply lines, unlike the forces that advanced on Kiev from the north and the northeast, and the Russian forces that came up from Crimea.  That's why Russia has been switching their efforts to there. 

Zelenskyy complains he needs more weapons, planes, and tanks, to take the fight to the east.  Asks who is running NATO.  Putin through intimidation? 

More missiles fired at Lviv.  Some people made a big deal about it because Grandpa President was only 70 MILES AWAY!!!  Bllaglkaljgalkgalkjhgfd!  People....

President of the EU Commission still pushing for renewables instead of just sucking on that delicious nuclear teat sitting right there.  Guess change can only go so far. 

A rather embarrassing story in Task & Purpose on Americans in the Ukrainian Legion of International Volunteers basically lasting a week or so and quitting when they have to pick up the first corpse.  Task & Purpose specializes in finding embarassing stuff about the US military and US veterans and making the institutions look bad.  Think of them as the guys that could never get their stuff published in Army Times or Stars and Stripes.  But they don't make stuff up.  They just happen to be fixated a bit too much on it to my liking and they have a definitive bias that "everyone is stupid except me" attitude.  It might be up some of y'alls alley. 

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-army-veteran-volunteer/

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 26, 2022, 08:41:04 PM
Listening to Grandpa Presidents speech now. 

Could be a great one.  Important one for his Presidency.  A Kennedy opportunity. 

He's bringing some fire. He's bringing a little goofy grandpa charm.  He's stumbling a little as usual. 

I don't know why he's bringing up 1956 Hungary.  Eastern Europe may be a bit sore at the US about that.  Especially after telling the people to "steel themselves" for a long hard battle against Russia.  This seems to suggest that "hey, you might get conquered by Russia, since we won't actually go to war with them over you, but you'll win eventually.  After 50 years."

"The ruble reduced to rubble" was good enough to get some applause in the middle, and throw Grandpa to ad lib for one second. 

I'm glad that he's drawing a hard line on defense of NATO, talking about "sacred obligations", but I've discussed the hollow legalistic problems with the approach before, and that the same problems with fighting for Ukraine would apply to fighting Russians in Estonia or Poland.  If Russians invaded Poland, would American troops not shoot at them?  Because "World War Three!!!!!!!".  RNGesus, some of the arguments have just been so stupid to me.  I get that it is about deterrence, but that deterrence depends on the ability of US and NATO troops to kill Russians and not fear nuclear war, which seems to have gripped so many in Europe and the United States.  Pooter is going to challenge it if he gets the opportunity.  Anyways, this is the most fire and determination I've seen from Grandpa.  If you're selling deterrence you have to be believable and he's doing his utmost best. 

Finally gets to some American demands
1. Pooter must end the war (not very specific, but it's a start)
2. Europe needs to end dependence on Russian gas
3. Clean renewable energy again (the fetish is strong in these ones)
4. NATO democracies must stand together (vague)

Ending with some fire. 

Then he says Pooter can't stay in power, lol, which got him into trouble apparently.  I don't know why.  Everybody is thinking it.  Others have pretty much said it. 

Anyways, I give it an 8 out of 10.  It's probably as good as Grandpa is ever going to get.  Let's face it, he's not a Reagan or Kennedy.  I think a thread on ranking Presidents as orators would be fun. 



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 26, 2022, 09:17:15 PM
Reports are that the Russian tank reserve is mostly useless due to key components being sold off. It's also said that 60% of missile fires are failing. The Russians situation looks worse and worse.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 27, 2022, 09:22:34 AM
It's also said that 60% of missile fires are failing. The Russians situation looks worse and worse.

I had heard something similar but it went that 60% of their surface to surface missiles, cruise and ballistic, had MISSED rather than failed.  Meaning they still worked but just were not very accurate.  I would not be surprised if they had some missile failures as well.  Missiles are very high maintenance items. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 27, 2022, 11:56:49 AM
Zelenskyy getting irate and asking again for more weapons.  This time tanks and planes.  Not just MiGs, but F-16s and F-15s.  I don't know who he has that he thinks can fly them, but apparently he has great faith in his pilots.  I have admitted that I don't understand the NATO reasoning behind the blockage of the MiG transfers, but if it like Zelenskyy says and it is being driven by fear of Pooter, then I don't think it makes sense.  I don't know how it makes sense to send F-15s or M-1s to Ukraine either, but sure, have a couple.  Let's see if you can operate them.  I dunno, maybe they got guys that play a lot of DCS World over there. 

I mean, 19K AIT takes 22 weeks.  That doesn't count the time to train TCs and PSs and PLs.  But *censored*it.  Santa brings you these mythical weapons to fight the Ice Bitch of Moscow. 

Wants S-300 reloads from Slovakia.  Everything points to Ukraine running low on all these critical weapons systems they have been relying on to maintain what they have. 


Report in the NYT that Ukrainian General Staff says the Russians are not just holding their ground NW of Keev anymore, but are actively retreating through Chernobyl and Pripyat back to Belarus.  A sad lost opportunity if this is true, to have kept up the counter attacks and encircle and trap the 35th and 36th CAAs.  That would have been glory to Ukraine.  Retreating across Belarus makes them save and they can regroup and rearm and threaten to attack again, meaning Ukraine has to keep more forces in Keev to protect against such an attack.  Forces they need to counter attack with and reinforce with in the east. 


It's sad to me where India has fallen on this war.  You would think that being a democracy surrounded by autocracies would lead to some feelings of empathy and solidarity.  Apparently not. 


LOL.  Russian MP Sergei Savostyanov threatens Russian offensives against Poland, the Baltics, and Kazakhstan as part of a demilitarization and denazification campaign.  Good luck with 75% of your Army getting chewed up. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 27, 2022, 12:25:23 PM
Not just MiGs, but F-16s and F-15s.  I don't know who he has that he thinks can fly them, but apparently he has great faith in his pilots.

Maybe this is a silly question but...seriously, how hard can it be to fly an aircraft if you're an experienced fighter pilot? I mean there must be some line between Anakin "wheee!" no-skill needed and "how do you fly this thing??!!!"
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on March 27, 2022, 01:05:17 PM
I really have no idea how much getting familiar with the limits of the plane most of training is.  I mean how do you know how much you can push a plane unless you have been in it at least some?  I mean when you are in dog fights for you life I assume you are pushing the plane and yourself to your and the planes limits. 

Also are the planes controls in English or Ukranian?  I would assume that might have some input?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 27, 2022, 02:14:53 PM
Well in "independence day" we learned that just about any pilot can hop in any fighter jet and go to work
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 27, 2022, 02:34:40 PM
Maybe this is a silly question but...seriously, how hard can it be to fly an aircraft if you're an experienced fighter pilot? I mean there must be some line between Anakin "wheee!" no-skill needed and "how do you fly this thing??!!!"

This is basically the key question rather than being silly. 

According to an article in Air Force Magazine, The Air Dominance School "B Course" for the F-15 takes 115 days.  This is for newly minted pilots.  The transition course takes shorter, but it doesn't say exactly how long. 

I mean, If I had to guess, I'd say that a transition course would be roughly 50 days.  Given the way fighter pilots live, I imagine it could be shortened to 25-30 days if necessary, by extending working hours and cutting out weekends and binge drinking.  But to shorten the course that way you would have to be somewhere with the right facilities with plenty of simulators etc.  That probably means Tyndall AFB would be the only place to do this for F-15s, and Luke AFB for the F-16.  Then you have to basically kick whatever course you have already planned down the road, and fit in 12-20 Ukrainian fighter jocks. 

I think it's possible given the amount of time the war can drag on, though a part of me wants to say that it can only last another 2-4 weeks before somebody hits exhaustion on ammo or morale.  The new Russian way of war is burning up lots of ammo.  And not small bullets either.  Big rockets and big artillery shells.  That *censored* is heavy and goes boom.  You need lots of trucks to move that stuff. 

But could Ukraine do without 12 to 20 of it's best pilots right now?  Or are they plane-less?  Does Zelenskyy or his pilots really believe they can just jump into an F-15, get a familiarization ride, and zoom take off on combat missions? 

I mean, it's not just the pilots either.  You have to train them on the weapons.  You have to train the mechanics.  The armorers.  The fuelers.  All that *censored* takes time. 

Look, man.  Send four of your best pilots over and we'll see what they can do.  That's what I would say.  But if we won't let them have MiG 29s I doubt we'll let them have F-15s. 

This could all just be over in a week if NATO or the US just enters the air war.  I'm tired of the whole thing.  By the end of the week we'll be at peace or we'll be radioactive farts. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 27, 2022, 06:16:52 PM
I can't assess any of that, Grant, but let's at least assume that graduating on a fighter in the U.S. has more implications that merely being able to handle the aircraft. There are safety regulations, insurance (CYA?) issues, procedure, maintenance, warning signs to do with defect/malfunction, design limits, and of course the actual rigor of testing one's own mettle. Let's assume these Ukrainian pilots are already hardened by training so there's no issue for their own personal chops. And let's say Ukraine doesn't care about CYA American lawsuit protection. And let's even say they don't care so much about whether you can land the aircraft in XYZ scenario with various types of landing apparatus (on a carrier, on land, with/without landing strip). In fact let's even go further and assume they are in an existential crisis and don't even care that much about the landing at all! How hard could it actually be to get one of these things airborne, learn the controls, and use your previous training for spatial awareness, tactical, etc? Not saying it should be overnight, but I mean what would really be the bare minimum. I have a hard time believing it's 25-30 days, even skimping on weekends/binging. We're talking about 'get the birds up in the air and defend us' level of preparation. Could there realistically be more controls than a sophisticated flight sim or PC game? How long does it take gamers to learn to play at a decent level? Going forward that might not actually be a ridiculous standard for sheer technical skill. The other things (safety, maintenance, etc) might always require long procedure for long-term stability, sure.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 27, 2022, 07:35:15 PM
1. Safety Regulations:  Already covered in basic pilot training and not a part of familiarization
2. Insurance:  Same as #1, plus regionally based.  Ukrainian pilots already are trained on Ukrainian insurance.
3. Procedure: Wut procedure? Like taking off?  See below
4. Maintenance:  Not the pilots job but you can't skip that unless you want your jet falling out of the sky because of an engine failure.
5. Warning Signs:  See below
6. Design limits:  See below
7. Familiarization flights:  See below
8. Carrier landing:  F-15s and F-16s are not carrier capable. 
9. Unimproved air strip landing: The F-16 I believe is capable, and learning how to do it may be critical given the situation.
10. Not learning how to land due to existential crisis:  Sounds like a bad way to run an airforce. Take the wheel RNGesus.
11.  How long does it take a gamer?  About 10-20 hours for familiarization and probably 100-200 hours for real proficiency, depending on the plane.  I mean, there are only so many things you can do with an A-10, but it has lots of switches.  There less switches on an F-15, but a lot more things you can do and a lot more things you need to look out for. 

 I'm not a fighter pilot.  But I do understand some of the concepts behind military training. 

First, you have a classroom period where you understand all the technical crap about your plane.  Like, lift generation and turning radius, and just about every damn thing you can imagine.  Just general info.  I bet that can take a week at least.  I bet you can cut some stuff out but this is the stuff that you base everything else off of.  It gives you a technical understanding of the aircraft. Just my opinion, but I think I pilot needs that stuff. 

Second you have to have classroom instruction on all the components.  The canopy. Everything in the cockpit. The HUD.  The radio. The radar. The ejector seat. The engine startup sequence.  The engine itself.  The emergency restart process.  What to do in a stall.  What to do in this kind of stall.  The fuel system.  What 500 buttons do.  What buttons to push when your heart is going 200bpm and you are pulling 9gs and your engine flames out and you slip into a flat spin.  And you have to memorize this *censored* to the point it it becomes second nature.  I bet that can take another 2 weeks right there. 

Then you need classroom instruction on the weapons systems.  How to employ them.  What are their operational envelopes.  It's not like a rifle.  Even then the Army will spend a week on BRM.  Missiles are highly complex weapons dealing with all kinds of crazy variables.  Your speed.  The bogy's speed. Angle of attack.  Closing angle.  Missile thrust.  I bet that takes a week in a classroom.

Then you need basic tactical employment of your aircraft against general enemies.  New planes and new weapons means new abilities which means they have to learn new ways of flying.  I bet that can take a week but I bet they could cut that down to two days given their experience and that they'll do it their way anyways. 

Then you're ready to go into a simulator and demonstrate what you know.  That can take a week because you don't have a simulator for everyone at once and you don't have a single instructor for everyone at once.  You have to demonstrate what you have learned in the classroom and then put it into effect and be critiqued until they get it right.  Everything.  Takeoff.  Landing.  Manuever at high speed at different altitudes.  Emergency procedures.  All of it.  That can take a week. 

Then you get up into a fighter plane to solo demonstrate you can do it.  On your own.  Everything.  Takeoff.  Landing.  Manuever at high speed.  Emergency procedures.  How to operate absolutely everything in the plane. While your instructor flies on your wing.  That can take two weeks unless you have so many instructors you can get through it in maybe a week in a half?  Now you're putting your instructors in danger by flying multiple sorties a day every day no weekends. 

I count 8 weeks up there.  I'm basically pulling it out of my ass but I bet it's a pretty educated guess.  That's 56 days.  That's a probably better guess than 25-30 days.  It's half the time given for the brand new pilots in the USAF. 

That still doesn't cover the training you need for your ground crews. 

It takes time, but from the Ukrainian point of view, the sooner they get started the better.  The way they are looking at it and the way things seem to be going, they could probably do a lot of damage with 12 F-15s or F-16s.  I understand that their MiG 29s and Su-27s are all real old models with *censored*ty radars that give the Russians huge advantages in air to air combat with being able to have missiles that do not require lock be maintained by the shooting aircraft. 

I think it's all academic anyhow until the US or NATO can get over the "give them jets" hump. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on March 27, 2022, 08:32:48 PM
Not to second-guess your figures, cause what do I know, but if that's a standard minimum time for an average classroom, don't you think it could be, I dunno, cut in half if they select only their top 10-12 most brilliant or quick-learning pilots? Even elite classrooms are slow for the best of the best. I'm just suggesting that 'no one here can learn to fly these things' doesn't sound like a great reason not to try to acquire aircraft of this sort.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on March 27, 2022, 09:18:31 PM
Ground crew and maintenance seem the far harder problem.  I think getting a pilot up to speed is relatively trivial - but US craft tend to have absurd maintenance requirements.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 27, 2022, 10:50:11 PM
I really have no idea how much getting familiar with the limits of the plane most of training is.  I mean how do you know how much you can push a plane unless you have been in it at least some?  I mean when you are in dog fights for you life I assume you are pushing the plane and yourself to your and the planes limits. 

Also are the planes controls in English or Ukranian?  I would assume that might have some input?

Honestly, the pilots are the simpler part of things, and I think that could possibly be turned around in "a couple of months" if the pilot is already experienced in fighters, or at least, experienced in American made fighters... Which the Ukranians won't be. Even then, their "skill" with the plane would be pretty low. Decent enough they shouldn't kill themselves with it in normal (peace time) operating conditions, but I wouldn't be so certain about trying to take on hostile fighters.

The real problem would be in regard to the ground crew and doing maintenance on the planes.

A more realistic option is to just feed them a bunch of predator drones which can be used as a disposable asset, because that's what the American Fighters would end up being otherwise.

Otherwise, get them more surface to air missile batteries to keep the Russians out of their airspace. Honestly the "best" option for giving them American anti-air capabilities likely looks a lot more like getting them equipped with Patriot Missile Batteries, and dealing with training the personnel to operate and maintain those. Although the Maintenance side of that is going to have a lengthy training pipeline too, I'm sure.

S-300/S-400 batteries from other nations would have a much faster turn-around, and less risk of "the good stuff" from the Patriot Batteries finding its way into Russia during/after the war.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on March 27, 2022, 10:58:48 PM
And let's even say they don't care so much about whether you can land the aircraft in XYZ scenario with various types of landing apparatus (on a carrier, on land, with/without landing strip). In fact let's even go further and assume they are in an existential crisis and don't even care that much about the landing at all! How hard could it actually be to get one of these things airborne, learn the controls, and use your previous training for spatial awareness, tactical, etc? Not saying it should be overnight, but I mean what would really be the bare minimum. I have a hard time believing it's 25-30 days, even skimping on weekends/binging. We're talking about 'get the birds up in the air and defend us' level of preparation. Could there realistically be more controls than a sophisticated flight sim or PC game? How long does it take gamers to learn to play at a decent level? Going forward that might not actually be a ridiculous standard for sheer technical skill. The other things (safety, maintenance, etc) might always require long procedure for long-term stability, sure.

I kind of suspect that was their plan with the Polish Migs, get them in the air, carry out attacks against the Russian air defense batteries, and the moment the Russians shoot back and go bingo on their own weapons, have the pilot bail out.

That's an obscenely expensive way to fight a war. Russia's use of Hypersonic Missiles against buildings seems downright frugal in comparison.

1.5 million dollar Hypersonic Missile, or $80+ million dollar fighter jet getting to experience intentional "one time use" before it even leaves the ground?

Yes, "the west" may be effectively bankrolling the war for Ukraine right now, but there is a limit on just how much money they're going to be willing to just "throw away" when there are other options that provide for a lot more "bang," for a lot less money. It just requires more time, and more manpower.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 27, 2022, 11:19:40 PM
Not to second-guess your figures, cause what do I know, but if that's a standard minimum time for an average classroom, don't you think it could be, I dunno, cut in half if they select only their top 10-12 most brilliant or quick-learning pilots? Even elite classrooms are slow for the best of the best. I'm just suggesting that 'no one here can learn to fly these things' doesn't sound like a great reason not to try to acquire aircraft of this sort.

My understanding is that all fighter pilots are pretty sharp.  Like: here is the procedure for engine restart, I'll go over it for 15 minutes.  It consists of 10 steps.  Write it down.  Tonight study it for 10 minutes.  You will have a test on it tomorrow.  You must pass.  Next: procedure for takeoff.  50 steps.  Write it down.  Study it for 30 minutes tonight.  Test on it tomorrow.  You must get every step correct.  This goes on all day, 12 hours.  Study another 6 hours.  Sleep for 6 hours.  Back in class.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 27, 2022, 11:34:55 PM
A more realistic option is to just feed them a bunch of predator drones which can be used as a disposable asset, because that's what the American Fighters would end up being otherwise.

Yes.  Give them Reapers.  But the problem is they want air to air capabilities which UAVs just don't have yet.  They're working on it, but not there yet.  Too threatening to fighter jocks. 

Quote
Otherwise, get them more surface to air missile batteries to keep the Russians out of their airspace. Honestly the "best" option for giving them American anti-air capabilities likely looks a lot more like getting them equipped with Patriot Missile Batteries, and dealing with training the personnel to operate and maintain those. Although the Maintenance side of that is going to have a lengthy training pipeline too, I'm sure.

It honestly depends on just how supportive the US wants to be.  Handling basic vehicle, electronic, and missile loading should be kinda easy.  It's an Army system after all.  If the US just allows empty Patriot launchers to be returned to Poland for a new one, it simplifies things, having the US do half of the maintenance.  But that would probably be politically untenable for some.  Can't upset the Russians and all.  The hardest part of learning the Patriot probably isn't maintenance, but handling the radar tracking system, the software, and the radar itself.  But again, I'm guessing. 
Basically, you're only going to train your Patriot missile battery operators, rather than the support personnel like the mechanics and missileers.  Level 1 maintenance only.  Not level 2 or level 3.

Quote
Army Maintenance Level History
Since World War II, the current Army Maintenance Level system has been used. There are 4 Army Maintenance Levels. They are:

Unit Level: In this level, the repair is performed and returned immediately to the user.

Direct Support: At this level, the majority of repair is returned to the user, but a small percentage is returned to supply.

General Support: This level of maintenance primarily repairs and returns to supply, with a small percentage going to the user.

Depot: At this level, the repair is made and the item returned to supply.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 28, 2022, 12:21:25 AM
Update Day 32

Overview:  Ukrainian counterattacks continue around northwest Keev, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Izium.  Russians are pressing on in the Donbass and Mariupol. 

Russians actually have a brigade or so of airborne and mechanized troops near Brest, on the border of Poland.  Just there to make people nervous I suspect. 

The hardest part about all this is not knowing exactly what kind of casualties the Ukrainians have taken, and what their logistics is like.  All the negative stories are about the Russian Army, and I'm fine with that.  But it means the fog of war is heavy from the towel boy perspective and making good guesses is tough.  But my gut feeling is that because the Ukrainians are carrying out the amount of counter attacks that they are, and that because the Russians are in some cases actively fleeing or withdrawing, that the war is going well for Ukraine due to them husbanding some reserves and being able to utilize them. 

The UA is continuing to press counter-attacks northwest of Keev.  It's the real deal.  They're rolling up the Russian right flank and it looks like they are actually pressing forward to try and take Ivankiv back, which would cut off the MSR from Belarus.  It's the possibility of a great victory in northern Ukraine and probably isn't being talked about enough yet.  Will Smith vs Chris Rock taking place and all.  The Ukrainian General Staff actually says it has encircled the Russians in Hostomel, though analysists seem to be unsure due to satellite imagery. 

To the east of Keev, the Russians are laying down minefields.  Not as much urban area as to the northwest of the capitol. The Ukrainians are still being successful hitting logistics convoys in this area.  A Russian attack on Chernihiv was defeated, but the Russians were successful in taking Slavutych on the east bank of the Dniepro.  A Ukrainian counterattack successfully retook Luk'yanivka, threatening the new Russian defensive positions to the east of Kyiv from behind. 

Strategically, the Russians are abandoning the Keev front.  It's no longer where they will be placing their eggs.  The assault on the capitol failed, and it failed in the first 2-4 days.  They will be keeping their forces in the area as much as possible in defensive positions, with the goal of keeping the Ukrainian reserves occupied with them instead of being able to effect the Donbass front, the new Russian primary axis of advance and their new strategic goal.  Hold the Donbass, escalate to deescalate.  Offer peace for keeping Donbass and Crimea.  Pooter can sell that as a win. 

Sumy remains under intense air and artillery attack but is still holding.  Reports that Russian forces to the east of Sumy are actually withdrawing back to Russia.  Ukrainians are attacking from the south towards Sumy and have retaken Trostyanets and Boromila. Sumy has basically become the Bastogne of northwest Ukraine.  The failure of the Russians to take the town interrupted the Russian's ability to advance on Keev from the east and pincer the capitol.  If the Russians are actually withdrawing from the area it would significantly impact their forces still stuck to the east of Keev.  Another possible disaster for the Russians in the making. 

In the Donbass, the Russians are attacking and seem to have taken the center of Izium, but Ukrainian counterattacks seem to have held them from advancing past the city and breaking out though the defensive line.  This is where the old Soviet science would say to commit the reserve and create a breakthrough, but I don't think the Russians have a second echelon, if the ever did.  Severodonetsk continues to hold.  Ukrainian counterattacks east of Kharkiv. 

Mariupol remains under siege and is tying up lots of Russian artillery, infantry, and armor while they pound the city down block by block. Mariupol is basically being sacrificed now to give the rest of the Donbass more time. 

The Ukrainians have been letting some of their pilots that are still alive talk to the media.  Several good print stories and looks like an interview on CNN.  Trying to let the pilots make the case for the planes themselves. 

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-24-22/h_e22a1580767def79558346ade340f661

https://coffeeordie.com/ukrainian-mig-29-pilot-interview/

As I said at the beginning.  Things continue to look good for Ukraine.  If the counterattacks around Keev and Sumy are successful, and we see mass surrender of Russian units, the Ukrainians will be able to refocus on the Donbass.  Continued logistics support from NATO is crucial.  The withdrawal of Russian troops from around Sumy could also be a sign that Sumy is about to be hit with a chemical or nuclear attack.  Sumy has already been identified as the most likely target of a chemical attack, and it follows that they could use a nuke there as well.  If the Russian army starts to break, it would be the decision point, if it has not already been reached.  As many as 1/3 of the Russian Army in theatre has been killed, captured, or wounded.  At 50%, things will start to crack. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 28, 2022, 10:10:28 AM
A little late but I think the appropriate response to a chemical or bio attack by Russia in Ukraine is to announce a no fly zone. Then say any Russian troops not out of the country in 48 hours will be targets for the USAF. Then open the boarders for Poland and the other Balkan states to send their armies into Ukraine to aid them. Just make sure Russia has good retreating lanes.

The Ukrainians have done well enough on their own it may be the right strategic call to do all that anyway. At this point no one else is coming in to help the Russians. China isn't going to put their ass on the line for a failed Russian adventure. So as long as we let the Russians retreat with enough men and equipment that they don't feel too weak I think we avoid any escalation (nuclear) at this point.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 28, 2022, 10:22:38 AM
An alternative would be to fly the Ukrainian pilots out to Utah (I think that's where the drone pilots are stationed) and let them pilot drones to take out Russian equipment. Fly the drones to Poland for maintenance and reloading, then "launch" them for combat out of Ukraine. The best American drones could probably do a number on the big Russian artillery pieces shelling cities.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 28, 2022, 10:44:53 AM
A little late but I think the appropriate response to a chemical or bio attack by Russia in Ukraine is to announce a no fly zone. Then say any Russian troops not out of the country in 48 hours will be targets for the USAF. Then open the boarders for Poland and the other Balkan states to send their armies into Ukraine to aid them. Just make sure Russia has good retreating lanes.

But that is not the response Pooter wants.  He needs one of two things.  Nuclear response by NATO to force negotiation, or conventional victory to achieve the same.  If NATO does not respond nucularly, this will just encourage Pooter to continue to up the ante.  Start using more chemical attacks, perhaps on NATO troops, and will continue until the chemical attacks give him a conventional victory or he achieves escalation for negotiation. 

I've said myself that the best move would be just to respond conventionally, but I fear it would not work.  We can certainly handle chemical warfare better than tactical nuclear warfare, but it would be dicey.  It would especially be hard on the Ukrainian civilians. 

I don't see the point of saving Ukraine for the Ukrainians if all of Ukraine has turned into a radioactive dust bowl or if millions of Ukrainians have died from Sarin attacks.  I would LOVE to not respond to a chemical or tac nuke attack, but not doing so will only encourage more such attacks.  Better to respond equally up front to show resolve and that victory cannot be achieved that way.  That will put an end to chemical or tactical nuclear attacks by Russia, and Russia will transition to threatening strategic nuclear war on NATO and the United States.  This is a war that Pooter cannot win, but he can hope that American and European fears of "the end of humanity" would drive them to force Ukraine to the bargaining table and give up the Donbass and Crimea.  And he's probably right. 

As much as I would hate it, and the Ukrainians would HATE IT, and HATE US FOR IT, I am satisfied that if the Russians agreed to a ceasefire, that Ukraine could eventually be reunited by time and continued economic pressure.  That continued death and the risk of global stategic thermonuclear war, no matter how small, would not be worth pressing given the advantages the United States, the West, and NATO have economically in the long run.  We will have a second cold war and iron curtain.  The Russian economy will wither and Russia will become the North Korea of Europe.  West and Central Europe will get off Russian gas.  Sanctions will go on.  Pooter will eventually die like Stalin.  Either of natural causes or poisoned by one of his own.  It may take another 40-50 years.  But I see it as the lesser evil. 

The alternative is to press Pooter and call his bluff.  If so we should just go in now and do it.  Why let the Ukrainians die by the thousands when we'll end up at the same place?  What is the chance that Pooter just takes an eventual loss by the Ukrainians after another month to a year.  At the cost of how many lives?  Because we are afraid of what?  We're afraid of Russia losing?  Because that is what the trigger is.  If we're afraid of Russia losing, then we're backing the wrong side.  Because we are actively working now, rightly so, for Russia to lose.  And if they lose, when they lose, will be the decision point.  Will Pooter just lose and walk away to be guillotined by his own people?  Or will he escalate for a desperate victory, something to show for all the suffering? 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 28, 2022, 10:47:25 AM
An alternative would be to fly the Ukrainian pilots out to Utah (I think that's where the drone pilots are stationed) and let them pilot drones to take out Russian equipment. Fly the drones to Poland for maintenance and reloading, then "launch" them for combat out of Ukraine. The best American drones could probably do a number on the big Russian artillery pieces shelling cities.

I've addressed that the problem with this is that Predators and Reapers do not have air to air combat capabilities, and this is what the Ukrainians want.  They want to be able to shoot down the Russian aircraft bombing their own troops and cities.   
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 28, 2022, 11:06:17 AM
An alternative would be to fly the Ukrainian pilots out to Utah (I think that's where the drone pilots are stationed) and let them pilot drones to take out Russian equipment. Fly the drones to Poland for maintenance and reloading, then "launch" them for combat out of Ukraine. The best American drones could probably do a number on the big Russian artillery pieces shelling cities.

I've addressed that the problem with this is that Predators and Reapers do not have air to air combat capabilities, and this is what the Ukrainians want.  They want to be able to shoot down the Russian aircraft bombing their own troops and cities.   

I doubt they would turn down being able to take out the artillery shelling their cities. I know it isn't what they want, but being able to target artillery, or maybe more strategically the supply lines with American drones wouldn't hurt their cause.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 28, 2022, 11:21:07 AM
I doubt they would turn down being able to take out the artillery shelling their cities. I know it isn't what they want, but being able to target artillery, or maybe more strategically the supply lines with American drones wouldn't hurt their cause.

It wouldn't hurt but they already have some done capabilities with the Turkish Bayraktars they have.  Perhaps more would help, but it doesn't fill the hole they want filled. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 28, 2022, 12:29:06 PM
Interesting turn of events. 

"Bellingcat is reporting that three members of the delegation attending the peace talks between Ukraine and Russia on the night of 3 to 4 March 2022 experienced symptoms consistent with poisoning with chemical weapons.  One of the victims was Russian entrepreneur Roman Abramovich.  Abramovich, along with another Russian entrepreneur, had taken part in the negotiations alongside Ukraine's MP Rustem Umerov.  The negotiation round on the afternoon of 3 March took place on Ukrainian territory, and lasted until about 10pm.  Three members of the negotiating team retreated to an apartment in Kyiv later that night and felt initial symptoms - including eye and skin inflammation and piercing pain in the eyes - later that night.  The symptoms did not abate until the morning.  The next day the group of negotiators drove from Kyiv to Lviv on the way to Poland and then to Istanbul, to continue informal negotiations with the Russian side.  A Bellingcat investigator was asked to help provide an examination by chemical weapons specialists.   Based on remote and on-site examinations, the experts concluded that the symptoms are most likely the result of international poisoning with an undefined chemical weapon.  An alternative less likely hypothesis was use of microwave irradiation.  The symptoms gradually subsided in the course of the following week.  The three men experiencing the symptoms consumed only chocolate and water in the house before the symptoms appeared.  A fourth member of the team who also consumed these did not experience symptoms.  According to two consulted CW experts and a doctor, the symptoms were most consistent with variants of porphyrin, organophosphates, or bicyclic substances.  A definitie determination was not possible do to the absence of specialized lab equipment near the victims.  The experts said the dosage and type of toxin used was likely insufficient to cause life-threatening damage, and most likely was intended to scare the victims as opposed to cause permanent damage.  The victims said they were not aware who might have had an interest in the attack."

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1508463513013997580?cxt=HHwWmMCyndXkke8pAAAA

https://www.wsj.com/articles/roman-abramovich-and-ukrainian-peace-negotiators-suffer-symptoms-of-suspected-poisoning-11648480493

I will not speculate.  Too many variables. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 29, 2022, 10:16:43 AM
So certain multinational companies, such as Pepsico, are continuing some operations on humanitarian grounds - citing the need to ensure food security for the Russian people. It left me wondering about the morality of the concept, considering that Russia is trying to starve out Ukrainian cities. I mean, its not like you have carte blanche to commit any war crimes that you are a victim of. But... there's a "what's good for the goose" effect.

It also has a certain demonstration of how multinational corporations can wield potential near-military power. At least when it comes to logistics. And putting the screws to the citizens/residents of a nation. We saw a certain amount of this with South Africa during apartheid and opinion was mixed there also. Was it okay to cause massive unemployment that would be just as likely to hurt those they were trying to help?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 29, 2022, 11:02:23 AM
So certain multinational companies, such as Pepsico, are continuing some operations on humanitarian grounds - citing the need to ensure food security for the Russian people. It left me wondering about the morality of the concept, considering that Russia is trying to starve out Ukrainian cities. I mean, its not like you have carte blanche to commit any war crimes that you are a victim of. But... there's a "what's good for the goose" effect.

I think there needs to be some pragmatic/strategic view of the matter, rather than just looking at it morally.  I think that part of the strategy that is now in place, between NATO and the United States, is to end the war through economic and domestic political pressure, while denying Russia victory in Ukraine by providing just enough military assistance to keep Russia from winning while not enough military assistance to cause a possible escalation, perhaps even avoiding a decision point altogether (hence Zelenskyy complaining that the US and UK are primarily interested in using the war in Ukraine to "wear Russia down" instead of just winning outright, which he has something of a point about). 

So, when it comes to utilizing economic and domestic political pressure, the central targets there are not just "the economy", but the people themselves, creating that impetus for political change.  Whether it be policy change or regime change.  The problem with that is that pressuring a population in this manner takes a deft hand.  You have to pressure as much as possible without pressuring too much to the point that the people rally around the leadership rather than question their policies. 

As to the wisdom of this strategy of putting political pressure on the people and oligarchs of Russia, I'm doubtful.  I knew it would not have any effect short term to prevent or stop a war.  Over time I'm unsure what it's effects will be.  These are matters for political scientists and psychologists, and I'm just a bartender at the O Club.  My views of political scientists and psychologists are not always high, though.  I'm unsure of the ability of the oligarchs or people of Russia to force change on the Pooter regime.  Historically, the only forces capable of forcing change on regimes such as this are the security/intelligence apparatus and the military.  Pooter seems to have a tight grip on both these.  I would not bet on resistance being able to coalesce, though I cannot see everything.  I in fact see very little. 

But this seems to be part of the strategy so that's where we are.  Trying to figure out how much pressure is the right amount.  I don't know.  Though how much power the strategic decision makers have over Pepsi is a question to consider.  How effective can your strategy really be if you do not control the forces used to exert pressure? 

I'm unsure there is a central strategy being effected.  It's not like talks between the US and UK during WWII, where France and Poland are basically junior partners without much say.  You've got several major partners, with several minor partners that are in no way obliged to go along with what the senior partners want.  You have the US, UK, Germany, Turkey and France as the major partners.  There are major differences between the US/UK/Turk approach and the German/French approach.  The Germans and French are already under strain from the US/UK and the eastern european countries.  Poland, the Baltics, Romania, Czechia, and Slovakia are all junior partners that want more done, and are exerting lots of pressure on the Germans and French, but they are still junior partners for the UK/US/Turk block.  Then you have the Italians and Hungarians who are basically attaching themselves to the German/French approach but for entirely different reasons.    This doesn't even get into the nordic states or other minor states like the Dutch and Belgians and Greeks, etc. 

NATO is honestly a bit too large and unwieldy. It's easy as a defense pact because defensive plans can be come up with ahead of time with force allocations, strategies and responsibilities, etc.  It's harder to do what we're doing now.  Especially with 30 members instead of just the two major players it started as.  Even three major players became difficult when France exerted itself.   

Honestly, if the war ends and Ukraine is still around, they'd be better creating a new defensive pact just between the eastern European countries, with maybe the US and UK along.  I've always been a great proponent of NATO, but it's become unwieldy and the diplomacy of the French and Germans turned out to be useless.  Eastern Europe needs a military alliance.  Not to be tied to a committee of diplomats. 

This is not to say that the diplomats and economic support of the French and Germans are not needed.  They just shouldn't be part of the military aspect anymore. Their military assistance isn't even needed.  The talkers and political scientists have their place.   
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 29, 2022, 01:12:44 PM
So, if we have not exactly entered the endgame, we have at least entered the mid-game and are past the opening. 

The Russians are making concessions and are appearing to attempt to reach a cease fire.  Appearing to anyways.  They have dropped the demand that Ukraine be "de-nazified" or "demilitarized", and have said they would not see joining the EU as a deal breaker.  Ukraine has said they would drop joining NATO.  I don't blame them, I don't think they want to be in any organization involving the Germans and Hungarians at this time.  Ukrainians are already talking about forming their own defense pact, much like I described in the post above.  The Russians probably understand this and are only looking at keeping Ukraine out of NATO as a propaganda victory. 

There is a long way to go for a cease-fire, though.  If anecdotal evidence from Abramovich about hand-written notes between Pooter and Zelenskyy is true, they are nowhere near coming to terms.  Pooter of course wants the Donbass and to keep Crimea.  Zelenskyy isn't in the mood to give it to him. 

Russia is talking about "pulling back from combat operations around Kyiv to assist in negotiations".  I think this is their way to hide the fact that they're basically retreating from around Keev.  While the Russians are pretending to pull back from the fight, I think it is actually important for the Ukrainians to keep pressing, hard.  I also think that NATO and the US need to keep pushing aid hard.  I don't think this is the time to slowing Ukraine down or putting pressure on them to make concessions.  I'm not sure if it would work anyways.  Maybe at the end of the day Zelenskyy would give up the Donbass if NATO pulls all their aid, but it would have to come to that, which, frankly, I don't think that NATO leaders could do.  Some of them, maybe.  But not all of them.  Too much public pressure at this point. 

So I still believe we are on the road to some kind of escalation, though it appears the risk of full NATO entry into the war is keeping Russia on a leash right now.  See, NATO deterrence works.  So far.  Plus the nuclear/chemical taboo.  Time and pressure favors Ukraine.  If Russia is on the verge of loss, we always come back to the same point.  The only difference is the amount of sunken cost.  How many thousands of Ukrainian and Russian lives are lost before the point is reached. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 29, 2022, 07:28:00 PM
Report and pictures of an ammo depot in Belgorod, Russia, going up in flames.  Belgorod being a major logistics point and jumping off point for the Russian northwestern axis/front.  I've read suggestions of it being Ukrainian SOF/saboteurs or just more Russian incompetence/an accident.  It is was Ukrainians then you have to credit them for hitting this war on all cylinders. 

Report in the NY Post that the WH is open to Ukrainians trading land for peace, "it's up to them", vs British demanding a full Russian withdrawal.  I honestly think this story is about a CNN reporter trying to get the drop on the WH and get a sound byte/story. 

I believe that the Russians have announced a "withdrawal" from around Keev to cover the fact that they have actually been pushed back by Ukrainian counterattacks and are on the verge of being cut off and surrounded south of Ivankiv. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 30, 2022, 10:19:33 AM
Report and pictures of an ammo depot in Belgorod, Russia, going up in flames.  Belgorod being a major logistics point and jumping off point for the Russian northwestern axis/front.  I've read suggestions of it being Ukrainian SOF/saboteurs or just more Russian incompetence/an accident.  It is was Ukrainians then you have to credit them for hitting this war on all cylinders. 

Report in the NY Post that the WH is open to Ukrainians trading land for peace, "it's up to them", vs British demanding a full Russian withdrawal.  I honestly think this story is about a CNN reporter trying to get the drop on the WH and get a sound byte/story. 

I believe that the Russians have announced a "withdrawal" from around Keev to cover the fact that they have actually been pushed back by Ukrainian counterattacks and are on the verge of being cut off and surrounded south of Ivankiv.

I'm confused. How is the NY Post story related to a CNN reporter?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 30, 2022, 10:58:37 AM
I'm confused. How is the NY Post story related to a CNN reporter?

The story in the NY Post was about a question that a CNN reporter asked. 

Because all some reporters do is re-write things that other reporters wrote.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 30, 2022, 12:01:31 PM
So Ukraine is proposing "neutrality" as long as it can have security guarantors.  Basically something similar to what I mentioned earlier about just forgetting about NATO and finding something similar. 

Germany has offered to be a  guarantor.  No response yet on what the Ukrainians think of German guarantees. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 30, 2022, 12:16:15 PM
We're not in NATO, we're living in an autonomous collective that just happens to include all the members of NATO. I'm pretty sure the way the agreement is going to be worded, Ukraine won't be allowed to join any mutual defense pact in order to satisfy "neutrality". Now as to what the hell good that agreement is going to do, or why every country involved wouldn't break it with impunity, is highly interesting.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on March 30, 2022, 12:22:14 PM
So Ukraine is proposing "neutrality" as long as it can have security guarantors.  Basically something similar to what I mentioned earlier about just forgetting about NATO and finding something similar. 

Germany has offered to be a  guarantor.  No response yet on what the Ukrainians think of German guarantees.

What stops Ukraine from joining NATO the minute Russian troops depart? A handshake deal with the Russians pointing a gun at their heads? I don't know why that should be honored in any meaningful way.

If they have to give Russia something in the peace deal, give them that and then ignore it in a year and join up or form alliances with Poland and the other Baltic states that are ready to join in the fight today.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 30, 2022, 12:58:07 PM
Promises and contracts made under duress and threat are not binding, not legally and not morally.

Another option besides making alliances is for Ukraine to go nuclear.

This Russian invasion could be a fatal blow to nuclear non-proliferation. Ukraine was promised that if they gave up their nukes and didn't pursue more then they would be protected, that what has happened would not happen. They were lied to, obviously. Just like every other country on the planet is being lied to about being protected from a nuclear power like Russia invading them and carving them up like a Thanksgiving turkey.

Sure, they can get sanctions. Maybe they can get arms. They can get online support by twits on twitter. Tibet can get Richard Gere and Ukraine can get Sean Penn, bless both their precious hearts. They can even get hackers on their side. But none of that brings back the pregnant women killed in attacks on hospitals, the little girls Putin murdered on the street with cluster bombs. Obviously none of that was enough of a deterrent to stop thousands of Ukrainians from continuing to get slaughtered and for the man responsible to be above the law and beyond reach of being held personally responsible and personally punished. All we know for sure so far is that everything that was on the table failed. And the United Nations? Failed. Now what if Ukraine had nukes? Would that have failed too? That, we don't know. Other countries have to be looking at their options now too. And nobody could blame them.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 30, 2022, 03:01:35 PM
This war definitely makes an argument for proliferation. Either by protecting yourself from invasion or warding off direct interference from the West. The counter arguments remain: that they're expensive, they upset everyone, and actually using them can make a situation significantly worse.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine eventually said "let us join NATO or we'll get nukes."
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on March 30, 2022, 03:10:02 PM
This war definitely makes an argument for proliferation. Either by protecting yourself from invasion or warding off direct interference from the West. The counter arguments remain: that they're expensive, they upset everyone, and actually using them can make a situation significantly worse.

Though I wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine eventually said "let us join NATO or we'll get nukes."

I think what this war definitely makes a argument for is how costly, pointless and absurd Conventual War is in the 21 century. So many other methods to screw with a country you want for whatever.

But I suspect you are correct, to be 'great' again, the lesson we will take from this is for proliferation and more money to the military complex. What a waist
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on March 30, 2022, 04:22:38 PM
This war definitely makes an argument for proliferation. Either by protecting yourself from invasion or warding off direct interference from the West.

Meh.  Not so much and depends on what yields and where you point it at. 

A handful of nuclear weapons that somebody like Iran or North Korea could get their hands on would probably not change the calculus much.  It's just not the same level of threat or versatility you get from Russia.  The difference is that you can no longer go with the "END OF HUMANITY!!!" crap that gives some people the vapors.  It would be the same with Ukraine.  And it would still lead to the same place.  "You nuke me I nuke you".  Nukes are practically worthless except against another nuclear armed country to keep them from using their nukes on you.  So far Russia still hasn't used nukes on Ukraine and if they did NATO has said they would respond in some way.  So Ukraine doesn't need nukes.  They're already practically under the NATO nuclear umbrella, though this depends on people's intestinal fortitude if a nuclear exchange occurred. 

On the other hand, what this war has shown is the great superiority of NATO military equipment and fighting styles.  It has shown that with the right equipment, the right training, the right preparation, that a small light infantry force trained to operate independently and trained with modern anti-armor weapons and tactics, you can defeat a major mechanized attack.  Ditto the importance of air power and artillery for offense.  It shows just how remarkable the invasion of Iraq in 2003 was, and how hard it is to accomplish such a feat against stiff resistance. 

Instead of wanting nuclear weapons, it's more likely Finland decides to spend more money on ATGMs and more fighter jets.  Meanwhile, traditional enemies like North Korea, China, and Iran will be trying to get more drones and aircraft. 

I don't think that Ukraine having a handful of nuclear weapons would have made a difference in preventing or fighting this war.  So invest in Lockheed, Raytheon, and Thales. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on March 30, 2022, 04:42:05 PM
Yes, I meant to mention that it's the size of Russia's arsenal which grants it immunity from direct intervention. While Iran or N Korea's nukes could make an invasion much more expensive that an equivalent weight of conventional forces but once they've shot them off, they're basically screwed.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on March 30, 2022, 04:44:58 PM
Nukes have almost certainly prevented a war between India and Pakistan. Just because you're cavalier about the prospect of a nuclear exchange, Grant, doesn't mean that Putin wouldn't have considered whether faced with annihilation Kyiv might go ahead and melt the Kremlin. I'd say North Korea's nukes probably had a deterrent effect as well - although their conventional artillery did also.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 01, 2022, 07:53:46 AM
Russia: Blowing up our fuel depot isn't helping the peace talks.
Mariupol: F### you.

I was hoping that Ukraine would find a way to strike territory in Russia. That's what happens when you attack a bordering country instead of invading one on the other side of the world like we do. It doesn't change the strategic direction, but now you can have Russian soldiers and civilians away from the front line starting to worry about their safety.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on April 01, 2022, 08:46:48 AM
Maybe the Russian troops were never told about what happened there.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russians-leave-chernobyl-ukraine-braces-040545645.html

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 06, 2022, 05:32:57 PM
Now we get to contemplate the moral calculations of "What if a nuclear power is committing genocide?". In other words, if Germany has nukes when it involves Poland, and we find out they are killing millions, what's our move? If the mass graves keep popping up, do we just go all-in and hope that Putin won't obliterate the world to avoid facing the shame of utter defeat?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 07, 2022, 02:47:37 PM
Some updates.

The Russians have withdrawn from the NW and NE of Keev.  Either because they understood they were about to be encircled, or because they understood they could no longer achieve their objectives there.  Whatever.  It was the smartest move they have made yet in the war.  There is some pretty good intel that they are redeploying these forces to the Donbas front.  These units have already been torn up pretty good, so I don't know how combat effective they are, but I think the Russians are looking at it like every bit helps. 

By redeploying to just a single main effort/front in the Donbas, the Russians have helped their logistics problems.  No longer will they be trying to push class I/III/V down through north east Ukraine, around Ukrainian controlled enclaves, full of territorial defense units etc with ATGM, mines, etc.  A bunch of the advantages the Ukrainians had due to the Russians overextending themselves are now gone. 

The good news is that a political decapitation of Ukraine seems to be off the table, unless the Russians use nukes or a really large chemical attack on Keev.  There is always a chance one of their hit squads makes it through, but I imagine they are running short on assassins.  Another difference between the movies and reality. 

The bad news is that the Russians are now set to turn Ukraine into World War 1.  Using massive artillery attacks and air attacks to ground down Ukrainian forces.  What I had expected them to do for 2-7 days at the start of the war but never did.  They can mass their air defense weapons as well, creating more cover for their own aerospace forces to make more ground attacks. 

Mariupol is still holding but can't forever.  No further word on the "brilliant" plans of Macron on sending relief ships. 

The new Russian deployment fits with their new strategy/objective of just securing Donbas and then calling it a victory for Pooter.  Because the elimination of the northern/Kyiv front eliminates many of the logistical weaknesses of the Russians, and switches back to a form of warfare they are probably better at (blow the *censored* out of everything) the Ukrainians will have a harder time defending.  The Ukrainians are also redeploying some of their forces assigned to the defense of Keev to the Donbas front.  But the way the front is formed geographically makes it difficult to counterattack at particular places and favors the Russians, having formed a large salient.  It's also unclear how many experienced tankers and mechanized infantry the Ukrainians have left, in order to afford a real counterattack.

The Ukrainians have won a great victory.  But I think the easy part is over.  The Russians on the Donbas front will be harder to crack.  They're not overextended.  Their logistics are more secure.  The Russian's flanks are now secured by Russian territory.  The best locations for a counter attack would be south of Chuhuiv or North of Izium.  But again, not sure how much armor and mech infantry the Ukrainians have left.  With the right amount, the Russians could be vulnerable. 


Reports of massacres in towns to the NE of Kyiv.  Lawyers are focusing on calling it genocide.  Some more uproar.  Good thing we held some sanctions back, or we'd have nothing to respond to the latest. 


The war appears set to turn into a drawn out fight of attrition, where the Russians destroy Ukraine a city at a time, and pound the Ukrainian Army a unit at a time with artillery and air attacks.  This depends on how exhausted the Ukrainians are and how long the Russians can continue fighting. 

At this point, Poland entering the war alone would probably end the war in 1-2 weeks.  I don't dare deign to imagine that the United States would enter the war, because that would be "World War Three" and a single Russian killed by an American soldier instead of a Ukrainian soldier would lead to the "end of civilization".  Anyways, that's what some people are saying. 

Ukraine needs more artillery.  More drones.  More tanks.  More IFVs.  All the while keeping up with ATGM deliveries.  They could use some better airplanes and missiles but we've had long talks about that. 



Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on April 07, 2022, 03:00:18 PM
Some updates.

The Russians have withdrawn from the NW and NE of Keev.  Either because they understood they were about to be encircled, or because they understood they could no longer achieve their objectives there.  Whatever.  It was the smartest move they have made yet in the war.  There is some pretty good intel that they are redeploying these forces to the Donbas front.  These units have already been torn up pretty good, so I don't know how combat effective they are, but I think the Russians are looking at it like every bit helps. 

By redeploying to just a single main effort/front in the Donbas, the Russians have helped their logistics problems.  No longer will they be trying to push class I/III/V down through north east Ukraine, around Ukrainian controlled enclaves, full of territorial defense units etc with ATGM, mines, etc.  A bunch of the advantages the Ukrainians had due to the Russians overextending themselves are now gone. 

The good news is that a political decapitation of Ukraine seems to be off the table, unless the Russians use nukes or a really large chemical attack on Keev.  There is always a chance one of their hit squads makes it through, but I imagine they are running short on assassins.  Another difference between the movies and reality. 

The bad news is that the Russians are now set to turn Ukraine into World War 1.  Using massive artillery attacks and air attacks to ground down Ukrainian forces.  What I had expected them to do for 2-7 days at the start of the war but never did.  They can mass their air defense weapons as well, creating more cover for their own aerospace forces to make more ground attacks. 

Mariupol is still holding but can't forever.  No further word on the "brilliant" plans of Macron on sending relief ships. 

The new Russian deployment fits with their new strategy/objective of just securing Donbas and then calling it a victory for Pooter.  Because the elimination of the northern/Kyiv front eliminates many of the logistical weaknesses of the Russians, and switches back to a form of warfare they are probably better at (blow the *censored* out of everything) the Ukrainians will have a harder time defending. 

...

The war appears set to turn into a drawn out fight of attrition, where the Russians destroy Ukraine a city at a time, and pound the Ukrainian Army a unit at a time with artillery and air attacks.  This depends on how exhausted the Ukrainians are and how long the Russians can continue fighting. 

At this point, Poland entering the war alone would probably end the war in 1-2 weeks.  I don't dare deign to imagine that the United States would enter the war, because that would be "World War Three" and a single Russian killed by an American soldier instead of a Ukrainian soldier would lead to the "end of civilization".  Anyways, that's what some people are saying. 

Ukraine needs more artillery.  More drones.  More tanks.  More IFVs.  All the while keeping up with ATGM deliveries.  They could use some better airplanes and missiles but we've had long talks about that.

A big Russian redeployment in the East, heavy causalities in Ukrainian cities, we'll see how wed the Ukrainians are to Donbas. Or if the Ukrainians are just so irate at this point that they won't give an inch of territory for peace. But that does seem to be the quickest end, let the territories be "independent" *cough* Russian puppets *cough*. And try to rebuild the rest of the country the best you can. The other option is to try to kill enough Russian soldiers and destroy enough of their military equipment they have to pack up and go home. The Ukrainians are doing well. But without the crushing victory in the North that removes all those Russian forces from the field I'm not sure. The Russians are going to redeploy those troops in the East and I'm not sure the Ukrainians have the fire power needed to force Russia's hand on the battle field without the supply and logistics issues you pointed out they were facing around Kyiv.

Ukraine needs the Polish army or the USAF if Russia focuses on one front in the east. Maybe the can surprise me again but stalemate and lots of destruction seem like the most likely result of that fighting.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 07, 2022, 03:01:18 PM
Now we get to contemplate the moral calculations of "What if a nuclear power is committing genocide?".

Well, nothing of course.  Fighting Russia would mean "World War Three".  That would mean "the end of human civilization".  Can't have that. 

Our nuclear weapons are only good for deterring Russian nuclear attacks on ourselves, and the people we draw inside this little circle in pencil on a map.  The people outside the circle are just, well, screwed.  Can't help them.  But we can destroy their economy to the best of our ability and send certain types of weapons to help kill Russians, because that is within the rules that we think the Russians are playing by. 

Quote
do we just go all-in and hope that Putin won't obliterate the world to avoid facing the shame of utter defeat?

It's funny, because we seem to be in a race over who can bear the most shame or dishonor.  Putin or the entire west.  I'm going to bet on the entire west being able to shoulder more shame, because they can spread it out and blame other people instead of actually doing anything.  Poland can blame Germany and Germany can blame the US and the US can blame Biden and Biden can blame Poland.  So in the meantime, as someone once said, "F Ukraine, it's lousy they are being massacred, but it's lousy what the United States did to Afghanistan.  Can't do anything without the UN."
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 07, 2022, 10:55:00 PM
Destroyed Russian BMP-2 spotted and photographed, northwest of Kiev I think, with “Wolverines” spay painted on it.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 11, 2022, 04:16:54 PM
Unconfirmed reports of Russian chemical weapons use in Mariupol. Claims of difficulty breathing.  No photos. No video. No medical reports. Only detail is it was supposedly distributed by a drone. Reported by Azov BN suposedly.

No details. Vapor, gas, liquid?  No details on odor. No details on onset or other symptoms. 

Still early, but nowhere near the amount of data and evidence from the major chemical strikes in Syria by the Assad regime and later denied by the Kremlin’s useful idiots on the interwebs.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 11, 2022, 04:36:05 PM
Life at it's absurdist. I weep
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 13, 2022, 10:40:57 PM
No new evidence on chemical attack in Mariupol. Either it was something simple like CS or more likely something like something burning like plastic in a city being bombarded.

Russian Slava class CG Moskva , flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, was reportedly hit by two Neptune anti-ship missiles. Russian state media has confirmed the ship was on fire, the ammunition ignited, and the crew was evacuated.  No word on a missile strike. The Rooskies can now choose between saying they were so incompetent that a country without a navy sank their flagship, or that they were so incompetent that fire protection and poor maintenance led to the loss of their flagship.

Finland and Sweden making noise again about joining NATO. Pooter warns would have dire consequences.  Somebody needs to tell Sweden and Finland that joining NATO won’t help them. If the Russians invade the United States would not dare actually killing a single Russian soldier in direct combat, because it would lead to the end of civilization.  Sanctions and weapons sales are the best we can do. But only certain weapons. Not these other weapons. And Germany will still buy Russian gas and finance them killing you.

Boris Johnston made it to Kyiv. No word when the DNC will be capable of letting Grandpa President go without causing 50% of all registered Democrats to “have a cow, man”. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on April 13, 2022, 10:47:12 PM
Boris Johnston made it to Kyiv. No word when the DNC will be capable of letting Grandpa President go without causing 50% of all registered Democrats to “have a cow, man”.

If we’re going to send Americans to Kyiv, my vote is for an airborne brigade. And lots of drones. And the air force. The war is over if we decide to unleash our air power and Russia is fighting without air cover while getting pounded from the air. Just have to convince the Ukrainians not to chase anyone past the boarder in that scenario.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 13, 2022, 10:57:30 PM
Germany refuses to turn its deactivated nuclear power plants back on to reduce dependence on Russian gas, saying that nuclear energy would not actually reduce foreign dependence on energy, Germany would then being reliant on sales of uranium from…Canada.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on April 13, 2022, 10:59:00 PM
If the Russians invade the United States would not dare actually killing a single Russian soldier in direct combat, because it would lead to the end of civilization.

I have no doubt that at some point in history the button will be pushed on this, and a precedent will be set that conventional war with a nuclear power does not necessitate nuclear arms. It essentially must be tested at some point. The question will always be when it's worth it to take the gamble. Would you be the one to push the button, right now?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 13, 2022, 11:10:51 PM

If we’re going to send Americans to Kyiv, my vote is for an airborne brigade. And lots of drones. And the air force.

I feel a BDE from the 82nd would have been the right answer in the first month, when the fighting was mostly defensive in nature. This could have freed up Ukrainian mechanized units for counterattacks elsewhere. 

Now, with the nature of the war switching to attrition rather than blunting an attack, what is needed is a hammer, not a snake pit. I would suggest sending an Armored Cavalry Regiment, or even better a heavy division. 

But as suggested, the even simpler solution is simply unleash the USAF and let them win the war in 2-4 days. I mean, I suppose the Russians could hold out and let themselves be slowly annihilated like the Iraqis during the opening of Desert Storm for 2-4 weeks. But the end would be unavoidable.  It would also make air bases in Poland, Germany, and Romania the new prime targets for tac nuke attack. If Pooter uses a tac nuke so many people in the US and Europe will void their bowels simultaneously that there probably isn’t enough Charmin to handle it.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 13, 2022, 11:19:54 PM
Would you be the one to push the button, right now?

I kinda feel Kennedy already pushed the button in 1962 and Mattis just about did it again in 2018.  So yeah, I’d push the button. But I’m the last neocon superhawk. I’m one step under Curtis LeMay (recognize real crazy).  I honestly don’t see another viable option except surrender.  I know some people think there is some kind of third way that we’re doing now, but as I’ve shown, we’re eventually going to reach the very same decision point with the third way.  It’s just going to take longer and cost more Ukrainian lives, more rapes, more executions, more dead children. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on April 14, 2022, 06:43:03 AM
If Russia is going to act like this, it feels like we're just going to have to say well if you want a nuclear war and to destroy most or all of humanity, then that's your choice but we can't let you just kill all of these innocent people like this. If you obliterate the world, there may not be any history left but if there is it will record that your evil and our refusal to abide it was the end of all. We can only hope that someone over there will stop the insanity, but letting it play out like this is looking like less and less of a viable option.

We'd probably want some sort of U.N. approval if that's possible first though. After all, it is the life of every person in every country at stake. At a minimum, for crimes already committed, it seems like Russia should be kicked out of its permanent Security Council seat. I don't know if there is a way to do it. It is called a permanent seat after all. But it should be done anyway.

As more and more countries get nuclear weapons, we can't let their possession be a carte blanche for the types of crimes against humanity we're seeing in Ukraine. Doing that will encourage more and more countries to develop nuclear weapons as their only defense against nuclear powers like Russia who think they can do anything they want to whomever they want and so the nuclear war we're so desperate to avoid right now will become even more likely down the line and with more countries having nukes the threat of nuclear terrorism also escalates to near inevitability.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 14, 2022, 08:05:20 AM
Maybe nuclear war is inevitable. It certainly felt that way in the 1980s. We got through that period because we followed certain rules under the gentleman's agreement that kept the US and the USSR from annihilating each other, even while carrying out despicable acts in the name of defeating the other - acts far worse cumulatively than what we're seeing in Ukraine, as appalling as it is. We didn't shoot Russian helicopters out of the sky in Afghanistan, and they were committing the same atrocities there. We fought them the same way, smuggling in missiles and other portable munitions. But never ever having an American hand on the button that launched them, at least not provably. Should we have gone all in on that hand? Is it inevitable that if we don't fight Russia head-to-head in Ukraine, then they'll keep going and never stop? Because that didn't happen in Afghanistan. Russia didn't continue on to Pakistan. Russian was contained by Nato in Europe.

It's also wrong to describe it as "Russia contemplates the decision and decides to annihilate the world." It's a tit-for-tat that percolates and escalates. Cruise missiles hammering Eastern Europe with conventional warfare isn't exactly great either. Then we retaliate with strikes on non-capital Russian cities. Pressure builds. Maybe Putin says its time for a nuke, or maybe the command and control isn't airtight and a Russian general decides its time. That can't go unanswered, so St. Petersburg gets melted. Somebody realizes the trajectory of this escalation, and goes for the full strike before the other guy can do it.

It's a horrible choice. If one of your children falls out of a lifeboat, do you dive in to try to save them or do you stay and protect the other kids that are still in the boat? If you dive, you might save everyone. Or you might get everyone killed. But maybe humanity should just be declared a failed experiment and let evolution go back to the drawing board. The Earth will be around long enough to recover and try something new, maybe a more cooperative species next time.

As for removing Russia from the Security Council, there is only one way to do it. Dissolve the UN and start a new world body. There is no mechanism to preserve the existing one. Just like the League of Nations couldn't be reformed while preserving it. It might be interesting if all the other permanent countries resolved to give up their vetoes, but the US would be the last one to do that because, among other things, it couldn't shield Israel from their own invasion and occupation of other people's territory.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 14, 2022, 09:32:35 AM
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But maybe humanity should just be declared a failed experiment
I used to be optimistic that we would figure it out. I still think we will learn what the better options our, we just won't do them.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 14, 2022, 01:15:30 PM

We'd probably want some sort of U.N. approval if that's possible first though. After all, it is the life of every person in every country at stake. At a minimum, for crimes already committed, it seems like Russia should be kicked out of its permanent Security Council seat. I don't know if there is a way to do it. It is called a permanent seat after all. But it should be done anyway.

I don't think it's possible.  But I don't really know.  I'm not sure whose permission we really need anyways.  Whose approval is critical so that the "narrative" isn't that the United States is imperialist and Grandpa President is a unilateralist?  Germany's?  I don't think so.  A majority?  I think that's doable.  A majority by population?  Not so long as India seems to be betting on Russia. 

I honestly don't think that "the end of humanity" is in the cards here, and I don't know why people are seriously entertaining the threat. I mean, if you really want to prevent the end of civilization, you can just refuse to respond to a overwhelming strategic nuclear attack on the US and NATO.  We'll all be radioactive dust but Russia, China, India, SE Asia, the ME, Africa, South America, and Australia will be around to pick up the pieces.  See?  End of civilization averted.  But I don't think that's really what people cared about anyways. 

Yes, the refusal to engage Russia head on could in fact encourage countries like China and North Korea to believe that the United States would never engaged them directly due to fear of nuclear attack.  It pretty much completely negates the fact that we have our own nuclear arsenal to deter any nuclear attack on ourselves or our allies.  But that's apparently where we are now. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on April 14, 2022, 01:34:28 PM
It is cynical and cruel, but if we go in and Putin uses even a small nuke in Ukraine, I think Russia becomes an even larger pariah then they are now. Those on the fence would come over to our side, just because Putin crossed the line.  NK and China would probably not move, but I think the rest of the world would We would not even have to nuke them back.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 14, 2022, 01:36:46 PM

We'd probably want some sort of U.N. approval if that's possible first though. After all, it is the life of every person in every country at stake. At a minimum, for crimes already committed, it seems like Russia should be kicked out of its permanent Security Council seat. I don't know if there is a way to do it. It is called a permanent seat after all. But it should be done anyway.

I don't think it's possible.  But I don't really know.  I'm not sure whose permission we really need anyways.  Whose approval is critical so that the "narrative" isn't that the United States is imperialist and Grandpa President is a unilateralist?  Germany's?  I don't think so.  A majority?  I think that's doable.  A majority by population?  Not so long as India seems to be betting on Russia. 

I honestly don't think that "the end of humanity" is in the cards here, and I don't know why people are seriously entertaining the threat. I mean, if you really want to prevent the end of civilization, you can just refuse to respond to a overwhelming strategic nuclear attack on the US and NATO.  We'll all be radioactive dust but Russia, China, India, SE Asia, the ME, Africa, South America, and Australia will be around to pick up the pieces.  See?  End of civilization averted.  But I don't think that's really what people cared about anyways. 

Yes, the refusal to engage Russia head on could in fact encourage countries like China and North Korea to believe that the United States would never engaged them directly due to fear of nuclear attack.  It pretty much completely negates the fact that we have our own nuclear arsenal to deter any nuclear attack on ourselves or our allies.  But that's apparently where we are now.

Remember how the assassination of an archduke ended up in the death of 40 million people, and that's not even counting the fact that WW1 sowed the seeds for WW2 and another 80 million? That's why. Maybe end of humanity is hyperbole, but I'll throw Ukraine's millions under the bus rather than commit to an order of magnitude more. In this case, sure other humans will survive, but largely at pre-industrial levels. Africa won't do very well when many of the parts that they need to run will be toast. There will be some kind of Omega Man society running around in northern Canada, and Australia will get their. The world is in a collective spasm just from losing Russian oil, what happens when North American and North Sea production is also severely disrupted? You don't even need nukes to get to 100 million dead. I'll gladly take another Vietnam and an estimated over that. In that case, China did roll in and fought US troops directly. And there was a lot of talk about the US using nukes, and look up Fracture Jaw for how close we came to breaking the nuclear seal.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 14, 2022, 02:08:08 PM
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The world is in a collective spasm just from losing Russian oil, what happens when North American and North Sea production is also severely disrupted?

Like it our not nations are so interdependent on each other that its taking less and less to throw things into chaos. A ship gets stuck - chaos. Imagine if the 'cloud' is destroyed, if our access to the internet is impacted?

One of the things Putin is attempting to accomplish is to shape reality as he wishes it to be. To dismantle the norms by which we live by. Why was doing business so difficult to do in Russia. Because Putin doesn't care about the rules. Treaties having no more power then the paper they are written on when you can shift realty to conform to your intention.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 14, 2022, 03:02:08 PM
Maybe nuclear war is inevitable.

No.  It's a choice.  Psychohistory doesn't exist.  Thucydides Traps are the invention of weak minds.   

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It certainly felt that way in the 1980s.

The only thing certain I remember is that the Soviets were certain that Reagan or Bush would turn all of the Soviet Union into a glowing cinder if they used nuclear weapons, which in turn created certain deterrence and helped prevent nuclear war. 

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We got through that period because we followed certain rules under the gentleman's agreement that kept the US and the USSR from annihilating each other

What "gentleman's agreement"?  The only unspoken agreement I can fathom is the one where both sides agreed that they did not want to use nuclear weapons and only kept them to prevent the other side from using them.  Hence, a "gentleman's agreement" against first use.  This agreement did not come into play until enough scares occurred in the Soviet Union to encourage leadership that the use of nuclear weapons was suicide and keeping nuclear weapons only increased risk. 

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even while carrying out despicable acts in the name of defeating the other - acts far worse cumulatively than what we're seeing in Ukraine, as appalling as it is.

It's true.  What the Soviets, Chicoms, Khmer Rouge, NVA, and Viet Cong did were indeed despicable and appalling. 

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We didn't shoot Russian helicopters out of the sky in Afghanistan, and they were committing the same atrocities there.

Same atrocities maybe, but not the same geopolitical strategic situation. 

In 1980, what forces were Carter, or Reagan in 1981, supposed to commit to fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan?  Was there a friendly government there fighting for it's life?  A government that we had ties to?  That we had an established supply route with? 

Let's look at this realistically.  In 1981, before the DoD expansion under Reagan, the main enemy was the Soviet Union.  That was the enemy center of gravity and the plan was to concentrate in West Germany.  Any movement of forces away from this center of gravity would have drawn forces away from the built up OpPlan.  Why do that?  Why fight the Soviets in Afghanistan?  To set up what?  With what allies?  Pakistan? 

The situation in 2022 is much different.  Here Russia is attacking straight onto NATO's front porch.  This is in fact the fight that the Army, Navy, and Air Force of the 1980s was built to fight, which was then unleashed on a hapless Iraq in 1991.  This is it.  The ghost of Norman Schwarzkopf has an erection.  This is why former SACEURs like Joulwan and Clarke are some of the only voices saying "let's go".  The Cold War didn't end.  It was just paused and then Western Europe didn't want to play anymore.  All the *censored* that the Soviet Union caused for 80 years and all the *censored* that Russia has been causing over the last 14 and all the *censored* that it would like to cause over the next 100 years comes down to 2022.  Russia can be defeated now, and never be the seed for further problems in the world again. 

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But never ever having an American hand on the button that launched them, at least not provably.

I'm going to repeat that there is nothing magical about an American soldier killing a Russian soldier that automatically leads to nuclear war.  The war plans developed by the Warsaw Pact only began to include the use of tactical nuclear weapons in the 1960s because the NATO forces were so weak it was stated and assumed that NATO would use tac nukes first.  Key in on that.  The Warsaw Pact only planned to use tac nukes if NATO used them first.  They didn't need tac nukes to win.  And despite the plans to use tactical nukes against the Warsaw Pact, the idea that nuclear war was unwinnable war pretty strong in the US during the 60s and 70s.  The "Seven Days to the Rhine" scenario was centered around NATO first use of nuclear weapons. 

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Russian was contained by Nato in Europe.

NATO containment depends on the concept that American soldiers, airmen, and sailors would fight Russians and kill Russians despite their having nuclear weapons.  The "inevitability" of the current situation is that Russia is losing and will continue to lose in the long run, even if they do manage to take the Donbas, which is exactly what would happen if the United States enters the war today.  The decision point isn't "an American has killed a Russian, nuke them", it's "we are losing and there is no other way to stop losing than using a tactical nuclear weapon to force negotiations".  That is the only way that Russia can use nuclear weapons and not lose worse than they already will. 

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Then we retaliate with strikes on non-capital Russian cities. Pressure builds. Maybe Putin says its time for a nuke, or maybe the command and control isn't airtight and a Russian general decides its time. That can't go unanswered, so St. Petersburg gets melted. Somebody realizes the trajectory of this escalation, and goes for the full strike before the other guy can do it.

This is word salad that makes no strategic sense.  Why would NATO retaliate on Russian cities in response to conventional cruise missile attacks?  It makes better sense to retaliate against the missile launchers and missile depots.  If Pooter decides to pull the trigger with a tactical nuclear weapon, why would NATO respond against a strategic target like St. Petersburg?  It makes better sense to hit another tactical target like an airfield or supply depot or troop concentration.  This is just fear.  This is "don't poke the bear in the cage, because then the bear is going to pick the lock and then go to the pawn shop and buy a 12 gauge shotgun and hotwire a Mazda Miata and come to your house and shoot you in the middle of the night after climbing down your chimney".  It's unrealistic.   

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It's a horrible choice. If one of your children falls out of a lifeboat, do you dive in to try to save them or do you stay and protect the other kids that are still in the boat?

Most parents dive in, depending on their ability to swim. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 14, 2022, 03:18:03 PM
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even while carrying out despicable acts in the name of defeating the other - acts far worse cumulatively than what we're seeing in Ukraine, as appalling as it is.

It's true.  What the Soviets, Chicoms, Khmer Rouge, NVA, and Viet Cong did were indeed despicable and appalling.

But not our puppets, eh? Putting Pinochet in power wasn't appalling? Bombing Cambodia? Your white hat is looking a little smudged, my self-described neocon. Even today, we're best buddies with Erdogan due to his sweet geographical location, you think he's throwing tea parties? He's committed war crimes in Syria that don't look that terribly different from Russians in the Donbas, do they?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on April 14, 2022, 03:49:44 PM
If going to war in Ukraine is warranted, Grant, is it because of the violation of a sovereign border, or because of the human rights violation? If the Russians were doing a clean fight, protecting civilians, etc, would that change the calculus on your idea that the U.S. should get in there and help?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 14, 2022, 04:26:26 PM
Maybe end of humanity is hyperbole, but I'll throw Ukraine's millions under the bus rather than commit to an order of magnitude more.

The only way to limit the killing is to surrender.  You're going to have to figure out what you will fight for.  Sounds like to me you've already figured it out, though. 

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Maybe end of humanity is hyperbole, but I'll throw Ukraine's millions under the bus rather than commit to an order of magnitude more. In this case, sure other humans will survive, but largely at pre-industrial levels. Africa won't do very well when many of the parts that they need to run will be toast.

I'm glad that we've moved on from "end of humanity" to "pre-industrial levels".  Give it some more time and I think we will continue to make progress, as soon as you understand your fears are mostly unjustified. 

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The world is in a collective spasm just from losing Russian oil, what happens when North American and North Sea production is also severely disrupted? You don't even need nukes to get to 100 million dead.

Oh, we might get there already, due to disruption of food production and export from Ukraine and Russia. 

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I'll gladly take another Vietnam and an estimated over that. In that case, China did roll in and fought US troops directly.

It's amazing.  Nobody nuked anybody. 

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And there was a lot of talk about the US using nukes, and look up Fracture Jaw for how close we came to breaking the nuclear seal.

Fracture Jaw went nowhere fast. 

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Your white hat is looking a little smudged, my self-described neocon.

It's true, I do think the United States and Americans are the good guys.  I don't deny it.  I will defend that view.  The United States has done some pretty bad stuff.  The list is pretty big.  Despite all that, we're nowhere near as bad as Imperial Germany, Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Pooter's Russia, Iran, Saddam's Iraq, Assad's Syria, the Viet Cong/Viet Minh, the Khmer Rouge, the Chicoms.  If you don't think so, try to imagine a world where any of those powers are the dominant superpower in the world. 

Pinochet was pretty bad.  But nowhere near as bad as Stalin or Hitler.  Yes, there were civilian casualties when we bombed NVA concentrations in Cambodia.  But we didn't kill nearly as many as the Khmer Rouge.  I'm not pleased with Erdogan.  I'm even less pleased with the Saudis in Yemen.  But I don't think they're anywhere near as bad as what Pooter is doing in Ukraine or what the Chinese did to Tibet. 

I'm sorry if you cannot differentiate between the magnitudes of *censored*ry.  But I'd rather wear a smudged white hat than wear none at all, and it's definitely better than a black hat. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 14, 2022, 04:46:06 PM
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It's a horrible choice. If one of your children falls out of a lifeboat, do you dive in to try to save them or do you stay and protect the other kids that are still in the boat?

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Most parents dive in, depending on their ability to swim.

More likely to dive as a reaction to the situation. When the water is freezing and choppy a response to the situation might be the reasoned approach vice a emotional reaction.

“The first casualty of any battle is the plan of attack.”
All the speculation of what if we did this our that... one thing is certain the outcome would be different then what was planned.

War in unpredictable and so Putin a foolish man.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 14, 2022, 05:00:35 PM
If going to war in Ukraine is warranted, Grant, is it because of the violation of a sovereign border, or because of the human rights violation? If the Russians were doing a clean fight, protecting civilians, etc, would that change the calculus on your idea that the U.S. should get in there and help?

I think this is difficult to say.  I would like to say both or neither. 

I think I can simplify that saying that we should go to war with Russia over Ukraine because the results of Russia winning, or losing slowly, in Ukraine is detrimental to the lives, world security, and economic stability of so much of the world AND because we can win very easily and keep all these negative actions from occurring.  It comes down to death and destruction and instability.  All of that together is a bigger reason than any one single reason by itself.  I don't think Russia would be Pooter's Russia without some of the human rights violations.  It kinda goes hand in hand with why Russia is our enemy, whether you want to see it or not. 

But let's play some games.  Let's say the United Kingdom invades Assad's Syria, for human rights violations.  And the UK keeps it clean, protecting civilians etc.  In this particular case, I'm not terribly upset about the violation of sovereignty unless it's a bad habit and ends up creating worse situations.  Or let's say France invades the UK and keeps it clean, over I dunno, fishing rights.  Kinda crazy.  Even if France keeps it clean, I would suggest siding with the UK, but it's hard for me to wrap my head around this scenario.  It's out of character. 

Even if Pooter's Russia kept things clean in Ukraine, I would still see the assault on sovereignty as destabilizing.  I would see it as a threat to the world and if it succeeded I would suggest it would embolden other world powers with designs on neighbors.  I think that in itself is cause for the United States to go to war being as it is in our interests to have world stability.  I think that preventing war and ending wars is in America's interests for many reasons, because it leads to humanitarian problems.  So it always comes down to humanitarian reasons. 

I'm under no illusions that war is something clean.  But there are degrees of dirty. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 14, 2022, 05:23:51 PM
More likely to dive as a reaction to the situation. When the water is freezing and choppy a response to the situation might be the reasoned approach vice a emotional reaction.

I mean, we can create all kinds of different scenarios, but I will stand by my original claim, because morality and parenthood and love are all emotionally governed things. 

Human beings have different levels of risk assessment and risk tolerance.  Some people run from fires, some would say wisely, and some others run towards them.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Fenring on April 14, 2022, 05:25:32 PM
Grant, it sounds like your main criterion is stability, and if the action increases stability over inaction then do it; the violence (i.e. attacking another country) is justified by the material gains the attack will gain, which can include security, wealth, etc. So it's not so much about atrocities, at least not the way you're making it sound. I just wanted to know. If you had said it was about the atrocities my next question was going to be why not attack China, but based on your answer your concepts don't point toward that as a necessary conclusion.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 14, 2022, 05:58:28 PM
More likely to dive as a reaction to the situation. When the water is freezing and choppy a response to the situation might be the reasoned approach vice a emotional reaction.

I mean, we can create all kinds of different scenarios, but I will stand by my original claim, because morality and parenthood and love are all emotionally governed things. 

Human beings have different levels of risk assessment and risk tolerance.  Some people run from fires, some would say wisely, and some others run towards them.

In the scenario a parent diving in to save one child while putting in danger their other children left in the boat as a reaction to the "emotionally governed thing"s, vice a response, likely does not involve a conscious risk assessment.

A emotional reaction being more likely to lead to unintended consciences then a  thought out response. That said as it comes to war unintended consequences are the only sure thing. 


I understand what your point is and I'm not sure your wrong with your argument to put boots on the ground to help Ukraine... its a huge gamble and I don't think anyone has any insight into Putin's head. His ability to hold sway over his people and shape thier experience of reality is amazing. How do we confront that without turning the world to ash. A outcome I'm not sure Putin is concerned with.

What does that SOB want?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 14, 2022, 06:26:39 PM
Grant, it sounds like your main criterion is stability, and if the action increases stability over inaction then do it; the violence (i.e. attacking another country) is justified by the material gains the attack will gain, which can include security, wealth, etc. So it's not so much about atrocities, at least not the way you're making it sound. I just wanted to know. If you had said it was about the atrocities my next question was going to be why not attack China, but based on your answer your concepts don't point toward that as a necessary conclusion.

Well, the thing with China comes back to 1) can it be done? and 2) would it make things better? 

There is not a whole bunch we can do for the Uighurs or other *censored*ty stuff China does.  You would have to invade China.  Topple the government.  Occupy China.  That's impossible.  It just can't be done. 

As bad as things are there, an invasion of China would make things bad for billions of people.  Even if it were possible.  Invading China isn't like invading Iraq, Iran, or Syria.  It's CHINA.  (Or CHYNUH) as L'Orange would say. 

On the other hand, a war with China that was just about stopping Chinese ability to threaten their neighbors, a naval or air war, that could lead to more stability and is doable. 

But let's look at Syria.  Serious humanitarian problems there.  Assad is a murderer extraordinaire.  I'd love to have invaded Syria if I thought it could work out.  But we were overextended already, nobody had any faith in intervention, and there were too many useful idiots sucking up propaganda.  I would have loved if we could have just targeted the *censored* and rubbed him out.  What has happened in Syria has not been good for regional stability, but it's hard to say how any meaningful intervention would have really helped, even if it's limited to just killing Assad.  But I support it because he's an *censored* and needs to die.  It's that simple. I can't even say there is a good chance of making things better.  All I can say for certain is that when people get away with being a mass murderer, it encourages others to do the same. 

But there are plenty of people like that.  Stalin.  Mao. Amin.  Some of them you can take down one way or another.  Others you can't.  Can't really do *censored* about Stalin or Mao.  Same really with Pooter.

I'm not saying it's impossible for things to have worked out in Syria.  But given America's track record recently at occupation and nation building, and the lack of faith in the same.  It's like looking at an impressive hill and saying "hell yeah we can take that hill".  Then you turn around and everyone on your team is an asthmatic in a wheel chair.  I mean, technically you can take the hill, but maybe not with the people you have.  You look into a particularly dirty warehouse floor, and say "hell yeah we can clean this place up", and you turn around and your team are all armed with toothbrushes and water pistols instead of mops and brooms.  Technically you should be able to clean that dirty floor, but not with the tools at your disposal. 

The key here is to do what you are able to do.  The easier it is the more you should do it.  One of the main selling points for the whole Ukrainian affair, to me, is how easy it would have been to prevent it or shorten it or win it.  Just send the USAF and it's over in a week.  It's that simple.  The biggest risk you have is deciding whether to attack targets in mother Russia or not.  Maybe Pooter tac nukes Poland.  It's possible that at some point the additional deaths would be greater than the deaths prevented.  That's why it would have been best to enter the war earlier.  Every day they are running out of more Ukrainians to kill or rape.  Beyond half of America and Europe *censored*ting themselves if a tac nuke goes off, it would be the single greatest disaster in American military history since Pearl Harbor.  And to stop it we'd have to nuke a Russian airbase or supply depot.  More dead.  But Russia still loses.  Now they're a pariah nation.  They'll be more cut off than North Korea.  Even the Germans and Hungarians will abandon them if they use nuclear weapons. Third world countries will have it better than Russia.  So it's likely they will not use them at all.  But they will threaten to, which they have already and continue to do so every day in state run media. 





Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 14, 2022, 06:36:22 PM
Quote
Just send the USAF and it's over in a week.  It's that simple.  The biggest risk you have is deciding whether to attack targets in mother Russia or not
I don't think that is the biggest risk?

I think Putin needs to be taken out of the picture for any 'success' scenario, and that that would be the biggest risk.
How do you do it without him going suicidal and taking as many people with him as possible.

The SOB plays by his own rules. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 14, 2022, 07:00:35 PM
I don't think that is the biggest risk?

I think Putin needs to be taken out of the picture for any 'success' scenario, and that that would be the biggest risk.
How do you do it without him going suicidal and taking as many people with him as possible.

The SOB plays by his own rules.

No.  You just have to convince Pooter that the best thing for him and for Russia is to leave Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe alone.  Carrot and stick.  Leave Ukraine and Crimea.  Stop threatening Eastern Europe. Gas stays on. Sanctions lifted.  No reparations.  No demands for his arrest or trial or whatever.  *censored*, give him a 2million euro dacha in Switzerland and make him Grand Duke of some place in Montenegro. 

All you have to do, is convince him, that WINNING means leaving Ukraine.  Staying in Ukraine means LOSING, for Russia and for Pooter personally. 

Quote
What does that SOB want?

What all of them want.  Power and respect.  It was the same with Wilhelm II and Hitler.  All three believed that at some point they had been humiliated by inferior people.  That they were not being given their due power and respect.  That they were being kept from what was rightfully THEIRS.  For Pooter it was the humiliation of the 1990s.  Having to drive a taxi after being an agent of the vaunted KGB.  For Hitler it was the humiliation of the loss of WWI and the Treaty of Versailles.  For Wilhelm it was those dirty French and English who were conspiring to encircle him and Germany, keeping them from their rightful place in the world.  From the respect he was due as the most powerful monarch in the world.  I mean, it's straight out of a cartoon.  It's straight out of Venture Brothers.  I don't know the name of the psychological disorder, but it's there. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 14, 2022, 07:27:42 PM
Quote
All you have to do, is convince him, that WINNING means leaving Ukraine.

convince me: How do we do that

What all of them want.  Power and respect.

How certain are you that his is the Putin's motivation My own impression is that the SOB doesn't care about respect, not as a driving force anyway. And I'm not sure his relationship to the idea of power is. I think the power he thrives in is tied into his ability to define the 'realty'  of so many people. truth doesn't mater, facts don't matter. Realty is something he shapes and creates despite facts, reason... Its something he has boosted of. Something Trump most admired about him.  That's power we have not seen the like of before.

I think its a mistake to compare Putin with figures in the past and assume he wants and so will react in the same way. I think we are dealing with a new type of personality  here.

What makes you think the Pooter to the values of power, respect etc in the way we traditionally think such SOB's do? 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 15, 2022, 10:27:52 AM
convince me: How do we do that

Like I said:  carrot and stick.  Pooter still thinks he can pull out a win and hold the Donbas, then he can escalate to descalate or just hold on.  But I think he's starting to realize he may not be able to do that as well unless he's thinking of a long war into this fall, which again may play against him.  I know he pulled up another 60,000 reserves and new conscriptions are up, but it will take time to train the new conscripts.  Previously, Russia wasn't even supposed to be using conscripts in Ukraine but I think that bubble has popped. 

Quote
How certain are you that his is the Putin's motivation

Look, man... I'm not a clinical psychologist.  I will cop to that.  I'm making my best educated guess based on my knowledge of these people.  I don't think I have any more evidence other than what I have already given.  Some people may have other theories. 

Quote
I think its a mistake to compare Putin with figures in the past and assume he wants and so will react in the same way. I think we are dealing with a new type of personality  here.

I mean, if you're a clinical psychologist, lay some cards out.  Otherwise all I can say is that I think it is a fallacy to somehow assume that Pooter is special in some way.  It's more likely to me that he is just more of the same. 

Quote
What makes you think the Pooter to the values of power, respect etc in the way we traditionally think such SOB's do?

Again, I am assuming that he is not special or unique, because he is far from being the first to do things that he is doing.  He has stated his aims.  He has written and spoken about his motivations and his past.  The guy isn't exactly a cipher.  That said, I'm not a clinical psychologist. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 15, 2022, 10:52:33 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/04/14/russia-warns-us-stop-arming-ukraine/

After Grandpa President outlines some more arms shipments to Ukraine, Russia sends a nasty-gram. 

Not exactly an ultimatum, it seems.  I havn't seen an actual copy.  Just a warning of unintended consequences.  Russian state media are already calling it "World War 3!TM".  Russia vs NATO.  Seems they are playing by a different set of rules than Joe Snuffy sitting on his lay-z-boy in Dayton, OH. 

Whomever the reporters are talking to seem to believe it may mean the Russians will start targeting NATO supply convoys in Ukraine or NATO weapons depots in Poland.  Curious what would happen if Russia missile attacks Poland (their planes won't make it).  I mean, I have been made to understand that if NATO troops fight Russian troops than we're going to be in "World War 3!TM", which will lead to the world sliding into pre-industrial levels of technology.  Looking to see L'Orange made King of Florida.  Maybe he has DeSantis on a leash like Channing Tatum in 'This is the End". 

Most likely Poland tries to Article 5 but Joe Snuffy in Dayton, OH doesn't feel like risking nuclear de-industrialization. 

Nevertheless, America needs to wake up to the fact that we're in July of 1941.  Wanting to stay out of the war but strangling Japan while shipping arms to China isn't going to fly forever.  Especially when Russia is blaming losing on the NATO support.  Right now, there is some dude in Moscow figuring out how to knock out America with a single strike. 

Edited for spelling mistake
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 15, 2022, 11:16:45 AM
Not a clinical psychologist, so no cards. You may be right, maybe the Pooter isn't a cipher and has always been hiding plain sight.

In my opinion f the SOB has a supper power its his gaslighting skills, he can and will work this to his own good and declare however this end a victory. I'm not convinced he cares how it ends.... I think he's board and wants to see if he can do just one more time. But your right that is neither here no their just thoughts from someone who sees this whole business as absurd.  It makes no rational sense to me.

What has the Pooter achieved  so far?  He has made Russia more venerable. Russian military prowess has been shown to be less then what most people imaged.
Russia (its people) gain nothing even if they take Ukraine
Yet if the SOB survives I'm going to bet that in a year or two the Republican party will hold him up as a positive example of how to lead a nation just as they are starting to do with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán. This is how the dictator gains power, the people fooled to sell their freedom for the notion of freedom which is really to hold the 'other' down. Surprised the day we discover we are all the other.  Never ends well. But such is the path

Maybe your right and we need to put a stop to this now and engaging on the ground with Ukraine. A full on defeat of the Pooter.
Sadly I think the di is cast. . 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on April 15, 2022, 11:18:56 AM
Hey Grant,

I live in Dayton OH and give Joe a break.  We have Wright Patterson AFB and would have a large number of nukes heading our way in WWIII
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 15, 2022, 11:19:00 AM
If Poland is attacked its War III
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 15, 2022, 11:42:55 AM
I live in Dayton OH and give Joe a break.  We have Wright Patterson AFB and would have a large number of nukes heading our way in WWIII

Well I didn't know your name or I would have used IT instead.   ;D

No offense to Wright-Patt, or the men and women of the AFMC or 88th ABW, but I think there are other places on the target list that may get higher priority. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on April 15, 2022, 11:54:05 AM
Actually I think we are high on the list because we can land B-52's on our runways.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 15, 2022, 11:58:03 AM
Actually I think we are high on the list because we can land B-52's on our runways.

Yeah, but wouldn't it make sense to just blow up the B-52s at Barksdale?  I mean, you could probably land B-52s at any international airport in the US if you had to. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on April 15, 2022, 12:10:13 PM
Not too sure about that.

From Wikipedia

A runway of at least 1,800 m (5,900 ft) in length is usually adequate for aircraft weights below approximately 100,000 kg (220,000 lb). Larger aircraft including widebodies will usually require at least 2,400 m (7,900 ft) at sea level. International widebody flights, which carry substantial amounts of fuel and are therefore heavier, may also have landing requirements of 3,200 m (10,500 ft) or more and takeoff requirements of 4,000 m (13,000 ft). The Boeing 747 is considered to have the longest takeoff distance of the more common aircraft types and has set the standard for runway lengths of larger international airports. [35]

I would think a fully loaded long distance bomber like the B-52 might need even longer.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 15, 2022, 12:44:01 PM
Not too sure about that.

I would think a fully loaded long distance bomber like the B-52 might need even longer.

So, best I can tell, from a question on Quora answered by an ex B-52 navigator, a B-52 needs about 13,000 ft to take off for a training flight with bombs and fuel.  A fact sheet says a B-52 needs 4km to takeoff.  Note that you can take off light on fuel and aerial refuel to make things easier. 

According to Wikipedia, 5L/23 R at Wright Patt goes 12600 ft or   Pretty close.  Note that 15/33 at Barksdale only goes 11,738 ft.  A List of the longest airfields in the US shows 28 airfields with lengths longer than 4 km.  According to a webpage by index mundi, the US has 425 airports with paved runways longer than 2,438 meters. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 15, 2022, 01:30:36 PM
Regarding Putin's rationality - pride motivates people, especially dictators. It wasn't rational for Saddam to sign up for complete destruction of his country and execution to avoid the indignity of international arms inspectors tromping around his facilities, but that's what happened. I don't think he's this cold-hearted calculator that's going to line up your carrot and stick coefficients the way you expect him to. He's not Baron Harkonnen, he's the Kwisatz Haderach and his destiny is to lead the Fremen in to their rightful place of influence and respect.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 15, 2022, 05:29:04 PM
As far as "good guys" go, burning villages to the ground and torturing prisoners is usually considered disqualifying. I only locked you in the closet for your own good, Timmy. You'll thank me for it when you grow up.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 17, 2022, 10:47:53 AM
So we've been in the mid-game now for, I dunno, a few weeks?  To recap, Ivan pulled out of the north/Keev front and redeployed to the eastern/Donbas front.  No more extended logistics tails.  The Russians are slogging it out inch by inch, attempting to attrit the Ukrainians utilizing artillery and air strikes. 

But at the same time, the Russians can't stop trying to maneuver a little.  It seems to me that their new main effort has been or will be pushing south out of Izium to take Barvinkove, then pressing further south to take Pokrovsk.  This cuts the main lines of supply from Dnipro for the Severdonensk salient and the rest of the Ukraininan forces deployed on the Donets line.  Izium seems to be where they are pushing their units they redeployed from Keev. 

So far, we havn't seen any major counter-attacks by the Ukrainians.  It's possible they don't have a strategic reserve large enough or feel like their best bet is still staying defensive.  Some people are suggesting that the Ukrainians are preparing to counterattack in the south, though Kherson, somehow getting across the Dnipro (I don't know if the E97 bridge is still up), and maybe going for Sevastapol.  The southern front is where the Russians appear the weakest, and where a counterattack could perhaps make the most headway against a major supply depot for the Russians.  Despite some SOF attacks by the Ukrainians inside Russia, it may be different if the Ukrainians actually try to counterattack on the Russian's northern flank with the aim of driving for Belgorod inside Russia.  Personally, I still think this would be the best plan because this would collapse the Russian attack into the Donbas.  But there are political considerations to make if the Ukrainians are now invading Russia and taking Russian cities.  The hope may be if the Ukrainians can take Sevastopol, it would distract the Russians enough in the east, but I'm doubtful. 

All this is occurring against a background of new conscripts being trained in Russia and new conscripts and recruits being trained in Ukraine on additional NATO equipment that is slowly getting there.  Some video evidence seems to suggest that the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrel/depot when it comes to replacing their vehicle losses in Ukraine.  Somebody joked about them pulling T-55s out of museums soon.  Meanwhile the Ukrainians are getting newer and better equipment, but slowly. 

Mariupol still stands and has been really drawing the Russian forces that could be used in the southern pincer move towards Pokrovsk.  Not sure how much longer than can hold out, but they have already held out longer than I expected. 

The Russians paraded the survivors of the Moskva in Moscow.  Somebody counted something like 52 survivors.  Out of a crew of 500.  The Admiral in charge of the Black Sea Fleet was arrested by the FSB.  Some people are worried the Moskva was carrying nuclear weapons.  Not quite sure why.  I doubt SPECTRE will be able to get in there to steal them if they are down there.  Likely they were blown up or severely damaged when the magazine blew.  I suppose they could still salvage the weapons grade uranium. 

Negotiations have seemingly broken down and will probably not start back up again until someone gets the upper hand in the Donbas. 

Some people are suggesting this is great for Ukraine, because it allows them to continue to grind down Russian forces attacking in the Donbas.  But I'm personally not sure. This always comes back to the lack of good visibility on Ukrainian losses.  How well are the Russians now using massed artillery to destroy Ukrainian defensive positions? 

Russians are threatening to move nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland join NATO.  Just to remind them that the alliance is a sham because nobody can fight Russia without risking nuclear war and returning to pre-industrial tech levels. 

I'm reading some optimism in Time magazine online about the effects of the war on global grain supply. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 18, 2022, 06:07:34 PM
So, I think Zelensky made a video where he said that the "Battle of Donbas has begun", or something of that nature.  So now everybody on the interwebs is repeating it, so you have to hear it too.  Despite I think Zelensky saying in the same message that it would take another 6 days for the Russians to get all their new BTGs in place. 

Everything is pointing to the Russians making a big push south of Izium.  They only have, I dunno, 15 miles to get to Barvinkove.  It's all farmland but there are all these ravines in there.  Really nice country for a armored or mechanized defense.  All these places to hide and then pop up and hit the Russians on the flanks.  And this may be the first time that the Russians are trying to advance along an axis that doesn't have a major highway to supply them.  They may be going against the grain here, depending on where they actually turn if they are able to take Barvinkove.  I think it may be only another 100 miles to Pokrovsk, but 100 miles through fields and ravines going against the grain can be rough. 

So if the Ukrainians do have a strategic reserve, and have decided to hold it on the defense, or are holding it for a response to the next Russian offense, the best move will be to attack southeast from Kharkiv.  Wait until the Russians exhaust themselves pushing south towards Pokrovsk, let them extend, then take them from behind or from the flank. 

To do this, Ukraine would probably have to deploy as much as possible whatever they have left in Kyiv to the east.  There are still 22 BTGs hanging out in Belarus though. 

The success of the Russians will depend largely on their ability to coordinate a large scale Division sized attack south of Izium, coordinating artillery the entire time.  They have not been able to do this very well so far.  The success of the Ukrainians will depend on if they even have a strategic reserve and what strength their units are operating in the Kramatorsk  area. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 19, 2022, 11:37:40 AM
"What did you do during World War Three, Paw Paw?"

"I fought in the meme wars, pumpkin.  At Twitter and Reddit, and a little place called Ornery. I started a thread called "Why are Republicans/Democrats so stupid?". 

"Oh"


Anyways, things are heating up.  Artillery attacks and slow steady pressure by the Russians all along the Donets Line and the Severdonetsk Salient.  Still no major attempt at a breakthrough in the north or south.  Supposedly the Russians need more time to get all their forces through Belgorod into Izium to their SPs, and the stubborn holdout in Mariupol which I think is delaying any southern arm of an envelopment move.  It would have been a good idea for the Russians to take time to soften up Ukrainian dug in units anyways, unlike what they tried to do at the jump. 

The Ukrainians seem to have decided on a counter-attack focused south of Kharkiv as their answer.  They seem to have been able to penetrate roughly 10 miles out of Chuhuiv over the weekend, threatening to cut the units concentrating in Izium off from supply from the north, and taking them from behind.  I personally think that the Ukrainians are jumping the gun here, and should have waited for the Russians to commit to the offensive and then draw them into the interior, maybe to Barvinkove or Sloviansk, before counter attacking along their northwestern flank.  Draw them into the sack, let them be fixed by forces in those towns, let their flanks be exposed and logistics used up on the attack instead of the defense, THEN hit them in the rear. 

I'm reading one analyst who says that the evidence is that the Russians will attempt to attack down Hwy E40 instead of going towards Barvinkove.  Maybe he's right, because it would simplify the logistics maybe, but the Ukrainians have already dug in pretty good in Sloviank.  You can never count on the Russians to do anything smart, however.

Mariupol will probably fall within a week, but I thought that two weeks ago so go figure.  I'm reading that the Russians are using Backfires to bomb Mariupol.  This is new to me, and signals that Russia has started using their strategic bomber fleet in a tactical role.  Like B-52 arclight missions. 

Worst case scenario:  The Ukrainians are exhausted, and don't get enough new equipment, ammunition, etc, in enough time.  Their new recruits are not as professional despite their "elan" or "esprit".  The Russians, despite being the Keystone Cops of the military world, have learned enough and have enough forces involved to make a breakthrough south of Izium.  The Ukrainian Army in Donbas collapses.  The Ukrainians hold along the Dnieper.  Unlikely but not impossible. 

Best/Worst case scenario:  The Ukrainians have a large enough strategic reserve to effectively counterattack along the Russian's right flank, rolling up the Russian attack in Donbas from Izium, the entire Russian flank begins to collapse.  The Russian army morale hits new lows.  Ukrainians threaten to attack into Crimea or Western Russia.  Poop hits the fan in Moscow.  Pooter attacks with chemical or tac nukes to attempt to force NATO to force Ukraine to negotiate end of the war with Russia still in control of Crimea and Donbas.  Unlikely but probably a better chance than the above scenario.

Middle/worst worst scenario:  The Russians attack but are blunted at Slovyansk and Barvinkove.  The Russians released after Mariupol falls are too exhausted to do much to attack towards Pokrovsk.  The Ukrainians do not have enough of a strategic reserve or do not have the logistics capability or cannot coordinate a multiple BDE or DIV sized counterattack.  The war just grinds on.  We have a new refit/rest phase where the Russians attempt to ready for another push.  As time goes on, NATO and the US continue to allow greater degrees of heavy weaponry into Ukraine, including western aircraft and western armored vehicles/tanks.  Over time, maybe 6 months, maybe 12 months, maybe 2 years, the Ukrainians develop the abilities needed to push the Russians out of Donbas and Crimea.  Pooter, if he is still around, releases chemical or tac nukes or is "removed from the board".   There is no detente.  Cold War 2 develops in earnest in eastern Europe and lasts another 50 years, with the Russians being more paranoid than ever.  The Eastern Europeans develop an alternative alliance to NATO, without Germany and France and Italy.  Most likely centered on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Romania, Turkey, Finland, Sweden, Norway, the UK, and maybe the US.  Call it EETO, Eastern European Treaty Organization. Russia, now a second rate power with tons of nuclear weapons, attaches itself to the teat of China.  Likely, but with many levels of variation.  The key here is lack of decisive action over the short term.  Maybe we have chemical/nuclear release, maybe we don't. 

The Ukrainians need maximum logistical support now when it comes to weapons and training.  We need to get outside of the "this is what Russia will allow".  We've already crossed the Russian red  line.  The Russians can't do anything because guess what? NATO has nukes too and they don't want NATO involved further.  So if the US isn't going to get involved and end the war then it's time to train the Ukrainians on M1s, Bradleys, F-15s, F-16s, Patriots, and Paladins.  If the war is going to drag on, the only way to end the war will be to give the Ukrainians the ability to push back the Russians with superior equipment.  All the time while propping up the Ukrainian economy as much as possible before the entire country falls apart financially.  Personally I find this COA to be more dangerous and less desirable than just entering the war and finishing things on our terms in a week or two.  But public opinion seems to still be opposed and the current administration I think would just like the war to go away so they can get back to the real war, domestic politics in the US. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 21, 2022, 03:01:40 PM

The Ukrainians need maximum logistical support now when it comes to weapons and training.  We need to get outside of the "this is what Russia will allow".  We've already crossed the Russian red  line. 

The latest:

I'm reading that the United States is providing 72 towed 155mm howitzers to Ukraine, with 121 recon drones and 144K shells (what type I don't know).  The equivalent of 4 artillery battalions.  A division's worth of guns.  Not bad.  It's not Paladins, but in terms of the most bang for your buck, you can't get better than towed 155s.  A previous package included counter-battery radars and Ukrainian cadre are being trained on the crewing of the artillery and the use of the radars. 

Another previous aid package included 200 M113 APCs.  The 113 is somewhat ancient technology, from the Vietnam era, but some people will tell you that it was the best mechanized infantry carrier ever produced by the US, the Bradley trying to do too much and limiting the amount of infantry it can carry in the process. 

Germany says it can't arm Ukraine because then it wouldn't be able to meet NATO goals.  LOL. 

The Czechs have sent T-72s and BMP-1s. 

Slovakia sent an S-300.

The UK is sending Stormer anti-aircraft vehicles.  I feel the US should be able to dig up some old M6 Linebackers to send.  It's really sad the state of US Army Air Defense.  I feel bad for the ADA officers.  I mean, what do they do after they make Major?  Manage Wal-Marts? 

All of this is a step up in aid and heavy equipment.  An "escalation" as it were.  It seems Pooter isn't the only one who can play "just the tip". 

Still on the Ukrainian wishlist are tanks and fighters.  Equipment that will require even more training and more logistics and more flights to transport.  It's a shame that nobody in NATO has any light tanks anymore.  Heavy tanks are just too expensive and well, too heavy.  We should have continued to develop the AGS.

All this is putting a dent in US war stock.  Particularly for newer stuff like Javelins.  I havn't heard of new US orders for equipment.  I think short of entering the war, being the "arsenal of democracy" is a good thing, but we need to be producing to replace the stuff we are shipping to Ukraine.  Except for the older stuff like the 155s and the 113s. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 21, 2022, 03:20:54 PM
All these lives, all these recourses, all this money... and what will be achieved, whos lives will benefit not to mention the damage done to the earth.
War is the 21 century pointless, stupide , absurd.

And what will the lesson will we take away... bigger army's. What a waist
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on April 21, 2022, 03:44:49 PM
All these lives, all these recourses, all this money... and what will be achieved, whos lives will benefit not to mention the damage done to the earth.
War is the 21 century pointless, stupide , absurd.

And what will the lesson will we take away... bigger army's. What a waist

Yes a waste. But better that than a world dominated by China and Russia.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 21, 2022, 04:18:10 PM
All these lives, all these recourses, all this money... and what will be achieved, whos lives will benefit not to mention the damage done to the earth.
War is the 21 century pointless, stupide , absurd.

And what will the lesson will we take away... bigger army's. What a waist

Yes a waste. But better that than a world dominated by China and Russia.

Its the domination by military force that is absurd, something I think China gets. There are 'better smarter' ways to dominate.

By 'better' I'm not assigning moral value. I get that if a country was being dominated in the 'better' way they might wish to use military's force to stop it. But that ought to be the last option. Better to fine other means then blowing everything up.

Russian has zero grounds for war. Its completely pointless. I'm waiting for the Russian people to come to that realization. the people of Russia people gain nothing even if they win
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 21, 2022, 06:38:06 PM
Russian has zero grounds for war. Its completely pointless. I'm waiting for the Russian people to come to that realization. the people of Russia people gain nothing even if they win

I don't know if the majority of the Russians really see it that way.  Some of them do, but I don't think the majority of them do.  I think the majority of Russians, particularly the rural ones, see the Ukraine as a kind of break away country that rightly belongs with Russia as part of a supernation superpower.  They see themselves as one people really, and themselves (Russians) the victims of central and western European powers and the United States wanting to break them up and keep them poor.  They see Ukraine as under the evil influence of the United States, NATO, and the shareholders of Chase Manhattan. 

I don't think it is that hard to imagine if you consider how some people would feel if the United States suffered some kind of economic collapse and breakup with someone around to blame for it.  People from Ohio who are "nationalists" may indeed feel that Texas is, with Ohio, part of something bigger and that they should be brought back, by force if necessary, against the evil machinations of Mexico and China, etc. 

I think it's wrong.  But people are crazy stupid everywhere.  I think the Russian people have drunk deep from the BS that has been thrown at them by Pooter and the Russian super-nationalists.

 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 22, 2022, 05:06:59 PM
France providing Caesar self propelled 155s (propelled by a truck chassis, not an enclosed tracked chassis).   (Why on earth would the French make a weapons systems named after an Italian that conquered France?  OK, a Roman that conquered Gaul.  It's actually an acronym.  Straight out of GI Joe/Cobra.  CAmion Équipé d'un Système d'ARtillerie.  Means "truck with an artillery piece".)

Canada providing M777 towed 155s.

But the Dutch apparently win the artillery Santa Claus award for giving over PzH 2000 self propelled 155s (enclosed and tracked). 

So it's apparently Gunbunny Christmas for the Ukrainian Army.  St Barbara about to be the next patron saint of Ukraine, next to St Olga, St Josaphat, and Our Lady of the Javelin. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 22, 2022, 05:38:54 PM
I hope its not to late and wonder if that will change how the Russians seem to deploy. Those long convoys just begging to be taken out.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 23, 2022, 08:17:30 AM
I hope its not to late and wonder if that will change how the Russians seem to deploy. Those long convoys just begging to be taken out.

It's probably a bit late for what is going on now, which doesn't seem to be too much but it's still early and the original reports said the Russians wouldn't have all their ducks lined up til the 26th.  A timeline which has probably been disrupted. 

Trainers need to be trained in Germany or the US or wherever.  Then they need to go back and train the operators.  Then you need a real air logistics campaign flying everything into Poland, or using trains to bring them from France, Holland, etc.  Offload.  Turn over to new troops somewhere in Western Ukraine. Put them back on another train and bring them to Eastern Ukraine.  Disembark.  Link up with assigned units.  Two months at the least is my guess.  Maybe one month for some of the stuff. 

The Russians have always had problems with their traffic jams.  Security means staying minimum 50 m apart when artillery is a threat. It slows things down, makes command and control a bit more difficult.  I guess we'll see how the Russians can learn from their mistakes.  Havn't seen a lot of evidence for it. 

The most glaring thing missing is heavy tanks.  Which are going to take a bunch more time to train on, and even more time to train mechanics on.  Especially for the ones with turbine engines.  But that's just the Abrams.  It would take awhile to get them from the US.  We have plenty extra in Germany stored up.  Just started giving Poland 200. But I wouldn't recommend M1s.  The logistics tail is too big because of the engine.  The best solution would be Leopard 2s from Germany, but the Germans  ::)  . 

Still nothing on for fighter jets.  Heard they are at least getting spare parts.  Now would be the time to train people to fly F-15Cs.  Not sure about F-16s.  The air to ground capability can triple the length of training.  I suppose it couldn't hurt to start.  No telling how long this thing can last between Russia and Ukraine if it stays stalemated.  I keep hearing how Russia cannot keep the war up, but I was hearing the same BS about how the Russian Army couldn't stay in the field for much longer back in late February.  Staying in the field is what armies do, and suffering is what Russians do.  It's the normal state of affairs. 

What we really need to do is get those MiG-29s to them and then figure out a way to get AIM-120s to work on MiG-29s. 

Here is to a very long war in Ukraine, which will apparently make the shareholders of Chase Manhattan and the American public happy, or the shareholders of Raytheon, and the Germans taking money from Russia.  Whatever.  Since we don't want to end the war in a week. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 23, 2022, 10:58:28 AM
Day 57 of "Forever War III".  (They last forever when certain people don't want to fight or win). 

Russians have declared victory in Mariupol.  The Ukrainians are still have 1,500 or more troops holed up in the Azovstal Steel Plant and the port area.  But the Russians have basically stopped trying to root them out.  They're just going to starve them. No telling how long that is going to take.  Or if the Ukrainians are managing to get supplies in somehow from the sea.  The Azovstal steel plant is a maze of tunnels and bunkers.  The tunnels go as far as six stories underground and the area was built to withstand a nuclear attack.  One analyst I've read suggests the only way to clear it out would be to use chemical weapons. 

Counter-attacks made by the Ukrainians southeast of Kharkiv earlier in the week seem to have been consolidated, but have gone no further towards cutting the supply routes for the Russians attempting to attack south of Izium.  The Russians did have to move their MSR for the Russians south of Izium from Belgorod to the Valuyki Kupaiansk rail line.  Further attacks southeast of Kharkiv by the Ukrainians could cut this rail line, but would require advancing 50 to 70km.  Other options include SOF operations to damage rail lines or blow bridges.  Any such attack now would probably face counterattack by the Russians in Izium, since they have not pushed far enough south towards Barvinkove or Slovyansk.  Intel seems to point at the Izium area as the main thrust for the Russians new campaign to take the Donbas.  So far, probing attacks against the Ukrainian positions have not yielded any gains.  The forward edge of the Russian lines are now 20 km from Barvinkove.  Taking the rail station would cut the main rail line of supply for the Ukrainian forces in the Severdonetsk Salient and the Donets Line.  They are probably already within striking distance if they decide to bring their artillery up. 

Large scale attacks on the Severodonetsk Salient.  Doesn't look like a bunch of gains yet. 

Nothing yet seems to indicate the Russians are pulling forces out of the siege of Mariupol to attack northwest towards Pokrovsk. 

Declaring victory in Mariupol seems to be a desperate Russian attempt to get a victory somewhere, after the failure of the northern front to seize Kyiv and the loss of the Moskva. 

Most glaring is the Ukrainian failure to capitalize on their earlier counterattacks during the week.  They are either waiting for the Russians to put their heads deeper in the sack, or they do not have the forces or logistics capable of making a 50-70km armored/mechanized advance.  Or they are choosing not to counter-attack for whatever reason.  Caution.  Lack of confidence.  Defensive mentality.  Whatever.   

Nothing has changed on my earlier assessments.  Likely that the war continues on through May or longer, with stalemate being the order of business until the Russians break politically or the Ukrainians get more heavy weapons and air defense capabilities.  The Ukrainian air defenses in the Donbas do not seem to be on the same level as the air defense around Kyiv. 

It's good the Ukrainians are getting all these artillery pieces and drones and air defense platforms, but I don't know what their fuel status is right now.  Nobody has been talking about their logistics, other than the things they ask for on their Christmas lists.  I guess they have enough fuel and fuel trucks.  The Russians have not, I think, began using strategic bombers against targets other than Mariupol.  This could weaken Ukrainian defenses in Severodonetsk and the Donets Line. 

The endgame is still coming.  Just being kicked down the road. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 23, 2022, 01:31:13 PM
Heh heh.  Turkey will no longer allow Russia to fly it's warplanes through Turkish airspace to get to Syria.  Somebody said they would have to fly through Iran, but I don't see how they would not also have to fly through Iraq as well.  Pretty much screws Russia's operations in Syria. 

Good day. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 23, 2022, 02:45:34 PM
Zelensky says Blinken and Austin are coming to visit on Easter (Eastern Orthodox), tomorrow.  Not sure if this was a security slip or not.  I don't think the Democrats will let Grandpa President go.  They freaked out over the idea of him going when Zelensky first made the invitation about a month ago.   He's not just the President of the United States to them.  He's kinda like the John Connor of the Democratic Party.  If he dies, the machines will win and the Democratic Party fall. 

Good for Blinkin and Austin.  Should send the VP as well if Grandpa President isn't going to go.  But whatever.  Honestly, Blinkin and Austin would be the best choices.  You could send SACEUR or CJCS but they may defect, lol. 





 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 25, 2022, 10:59:58 AM
Somebody is blowing stuff up in Russia.  Fuel depots.  Office buildings in Moscow. 

Don't know who it is.  Don't know how.  But whomever they are, they're doing it pretty well. 

SBU? SZR?  PSU?  CIA?  MI6?  Russian disaffected? 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 25, 2022, 12:19:36 PM
My guess is that once Russia solidify their gains they will declare victory perhaps hoping that the US "accepts" the situation as it did when the Crimea was taken
 
Politically in the US I expect to see a more focused move towards Putin, justifying his actions.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 25, 2022, 12:21:26 PM
Or Putin himself. Either to pull a frame job like he did with Chechnya, or to take out people he didn't like with even more impunity? Probably not the fuel depot though.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 25, 2022, 01:17:47 PM
My guess is that once Russia solidify their gains they will declare victory perhaps hoping that the US "accepts" the situation as it did when the Crimea was taken
 
Politically in the US I expect to see a more focused move towards Putin, justifying his actions.

Problem is that Pooter hasn't achieved any of his stated goals in Ukraine.  He can continue to move the goalposts, as he did with Kyiv, but he's running out of opportunities to spin a victory.  He doesn't seem to be doing well taking the rest of the Donbas.  He is barely holding on to Kherson.  He's running out of time and nobody seems to be running to support the end of the war except the certain elements most afraid of "World War 3!TM" and the straight up Putinverstehen. 

The moves to justify Putin have gotten nowhere.  Yes, they are out there, but they're being clobbered.  Nobody but the fringe is accepting their BS that they have been shoveling for 8 years since Crimea anymore.   Ukraine is one of the only major bipartisan things we have going now. 

Every day Ukraine grows stronger and Russia grows weaker.  The endgame is coming.  Prepare your souls. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 25, 2022, 03:33:23 PM
Putin has been pretty successful in moving goalposts and framing the narrative in the past. I hope your right though

Quote
The moves to justify Putin have gotten nowhere, Ukraine is one of the only major bipartisan things we have going now
Lately when the conversation of Ukraine has come I hear the comment that Ukraine did/does have a problems with White supremist/"Nazi" organizations within its boarders. Those stating this fact are not pro Putin. 
I ask them why they bring up that piece of information and they don't usually have a answer. Just stating a fact. A seed planted and repeated by those that don't consciously imply anything by it. Still the seed, watered, becomes a tree.

It works as you end up debating the problem of Nazi like originations instead of the fact that Russia had zero cause invade. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on April 25, 2022, 03:42:06 PM
Hell we have a Nazi problem.  Maybe Russia should invade us to help us get rid of it.  Make Tucker Carlson the head of the Dept of Government Information.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 25, 2022, 03:48:14 PM
They have made a big impression on "Conservapedia" which I was blissfully ignorant of until today.

Quote
NATO-backed neo-Nazis attacked the Donbas on February 14, 2022.[4][5][6] Military forces of the Russian Federation (RF) entered Ukraine on February 24, 2022 to put an end to the ethnic violence and de-nazify the areas where the children and grandchildren of World War II Nazi collaborators had been carrying an ethnic hatred of Russians since the Holodomor of the 1930s and earlier. A wave of patriotism swept over Russian society, viewing the operation as a second Great Patriotic War.[7] Soldiers felt they were sent to finish the job of de-nazifying Ukraine that their fathers and grandfathers left unfinished at the after of World War II. The use civilian human shields by the U.S-trained Armed Forces of Ukraine led to civilian casualties in several instances. Ukrainian security forces committed reprisal actions and atrocities against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in areas which Russian forces vacated. Numerous attacks by Ukrainian forces on its own citizens, which had been ongoing in the Donbas region for the eight previous years, spread outside the Donbas to create false flag images of attacks by Russians. By early April 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had been so degraded and decimated, or were out of fuel and unable to retreat, the Maidan regime relied even more heavily on soft power, psychological operations and propaganda war to garner sympathy from the West for continued support.

Bizarro world (https://www.conservapedia.com/Russia-Ukraine_war)
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on April 25, 2022, 04:01:13 PM
My eyes!!!!!!!

What have you done to my eyes?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: yossarian22c on April 25, 2022, 04:05:55 PM
They have made a big impression on "Conservapedia" which I was blissfully ignorant of until today.
...

The Russian propaganda machine has found receptive audiences in right wing nationalist audiences throughout the US and Europe. Or maybe Conservapedia is as dead as truth social so the Russian propagandists are speaking to themselves.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 26, 2022, 03:38:50 PM
Russia sends diplomatic note to Washington, demanding that SECDEF Austin stop hugging DEFMIN of Ukraine Reznikov, calling it an escalation. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 26, 2022, 03:55:29 PM

The Russian propaganda machine has found receptive audiences in right wing nationalist audiences throughout the US and Europe.

Ehhhh. 

Which kind of nationalists? 

I don't mean to derail, but just a brief spur before getting back on the main track:

Cause I don't think Russia is attracting the hard core white nationalists.  Russia says they are invading to "de-nazify", suggesting nazis are bad.  Probably not great for nazi fans. 

The white bread nationalists probably are not on board either.  Since what Ukraine is doing is the very definition of late 1800s, early 1900s nationalism.  Like, Ukrainians are a people and has been a separate country and should remain a different country. 

In the middle are some people who might think they are nationalists, or say they are nationalists, but they are really just radicalized anti-progressives.  To the point that anybody who is stomping the gays, or the euros, or the woke, or the libs, or immigrants, or the rich globalists, are their new heroes.  Guys that write for The American Conservative.  Some of the people who wish they write for The American Conservative but unfortunately write for National Review because the fervent anti-populists left in 2018/2019 and they needed somebody to write for them and they're just not crazy enough for The American Conservative.  Their heroes are The Great 5th Grade Communicator and Orban and LePen and Pooter.  Because they trigger the left.  Because they have an enemy and anyone who attacks their enemy is their friend.  You know, Tucker Carlson, Greg Gutfeld, Rod Dreher, Rich Lowery, Michael Brendan Doherty, and Sohrab Amari.  The people whose hatred of Hillary Clinton is only equaled by their hatred of David French.   Honestly, they probably hate David French more, because Hillary Clinton completely ignores then while David French does not.  Trumpists.  Not nationalists, white or otherwise. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 26, 2022, 04:17:12 PM
Unconfirmed reports that the Russians are breaking through south of Izium, towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and Barvinkove.  It seems like the itel that the big push would be on the 26th might have been correct.  If it's true, it's bad news for the Ukrainians in the Sverodonetsk salient. 

Waiting on confirmation.

I expect Slovyansk and Kramatorsk to have defense in depth.  But with what kinds of units, I don't know. 

If the big push is happening, this would now be the time for the Ukrainians to hit hard south of Kharkiv again.   

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 26, 2022, 04:32:49 PM
Barry McCaffrey, hero of Desert Storm, commander of the 24th ID in greatest flanking maneuver in history of warfare, and old Drug Czar, who has been warning about American involvement in Ukraine and "World War 3!TM" on MSNBC for the past two months, suddenly cannot fathom why Pooter would threaten nuclear war over a failed conventional invasion!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where is the emjoi of my head exploding!

"I've dealt with nuclear strategy much of my life" he writes. 

What is with it with smart people? 

It was never about American or NATO troops shooting at Russian troops. It's never been about that. It's been about losing.  Now Pooter is losing in Ukraine, so he's threatening nuclear war.  I said this a month ago.  Two months ago. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 26, 2022, 05:07:53 PM
There has always been an underlying worry about how the war in Ukraine could spill over back into Russian territory.  It was one of the concerns in the early air war, particularly if NATO or the US actually got involved. It continued to be a concern up til now, since Ukraine has the opportunity to strike targets in Russia using NATO supplied equipment.  It has to be a concern in the future if Ukraine wins the war and starts wondering about grabbing Rostov Oblast with NATO supplied equipment. 

The UK somewhat clarified their view, with their Minister of Defense, James Heappey stating that attacks on Russian soil using western equipment was "legitmate".  As Omar Little would say, "It's all part of the game".  This follows suspected Ukrainian attacks on an oil depot in Belgorod.  Lavrov has said this means that the NATO arms shipments in Poland are now fair game. 

As the Joker would say "Cumon, I want you to do it. HIT ME!". 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on April 26, 2022, 05:28:17 PM
Grant, any idea if the Jews will let Ukraine borrow their space laser?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 26, 2022, 06:01:52 PM
Grant, any idea if the Jews will let Ukraine borrow their space laser?

If they'd ever get to there in those long ass Illuminati meetings.  They spend too much time drinking blood out of the skulls of Goyim.  Personally, I'm disappointed that the weather control satellites are not on the table.  Or at least some Iron Dome missiles. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 27, 2022, 04:16:07 PM
Unconfirmed reports that the Russians are breaking through south of Izium, towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and Barvinkove.  It seems like the itel that the big push would be on the 26th might have been correct.  If it's true, it's bad news for the Ukrainians in the Sverodonetsk salient. 

Ok.  So the latest from the Ukrainian General Staff is that the Russians advanced from Izium but were stopped around Nova Dymtrivka.  This is sure an advance by the Russians of about 10 km, but not really a breakthrough. 

Nova Dymtrivka is just a village to the NE of Barvnikove, only about 12 klicks away.  So the railhead is definitely within artillery range if they bring their guns up. 


In other news, the Ukrainians also hit an ammo dump in Belgorod, continuing their magical attacks into Russia, with either stealth UAVs or SOF teams, or maybe even Russian saboteurs. 

Russians making more noise about attacking Poland to stop flow of foreign weapons into Ukraine.

Wesley Clark/CNN > Barry McCaffrey/MSNBC.  Feel sorry for Jack Keane at FNC.  He really doesn't have anybody to pitch to him over there.  Bill Hemmer and Dana Perino just cannot compete with people like Wolf Blitzer.  Sad. 

Russia cutting off the gas to Poland and Bulgaria.  It's already been brought up, but supporting the war effort isn't just about weapons and intel.  It's also going to be about economic support.  The money Ukraine is going to need to rebuild and become the West Germany of Eastern Europe is going to dwarf the money we have spent so far on weapons aid.  This economic support needs to include energy support in the form of LNG for Europe.  We have plenty.  We need to encourage the energy sector to start moving.  The industry needs to ramp up fast.  Europe needs to do their part and bring back nuclear energy.  The alternative is millions of Europeans with no power, their economies taking a massive hit, and people freezing to death in the winter. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on April 27, 2022, 06:26:41 PM
Any rumblings coming from Chechnya
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 27, 2022, 07:15:56 PM
Any rumblings coming from Chechnya

None that I know of.  I know the Chechens sent some troops to help Russia, and some Chechens are allied with Ukraine.  I think there were some videos linking the Chechens under Kadyrov to the siege of Mariupol.  Some analysts have shown the videos to be not exactly forthcoming in what they are purporting.  (They say they are filming from Ukraine, gas station behind them shows they are in Russia, etc).  That's about it. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on April 30, 2022, 08:44:00 AM
Been awhile since an update:

Russians continue attacks along the Donets Line and Sverodonetsk Salient.  Main push seems to be coming south from Izium.  That's nothing new. 

Russians are not breaking through but are inching closer to Barvikove.  They don't seem to have pushed past Kurulka or Nova Dmitrivka.  So no real advances in the last few days.  So much for the "main effort". 

Heavy fighting around Severdonetsk.  But no advances there either. 

The Ukrainians have not made any major counteroffensives.  The latest movement is actually coming from north of Kharkiv, looks like Ukrainians are trying to attack on the Russian far right flank, cutting off the Russians falling back around Kharkiv from their line of retreat back to Belgorod. 

The Russians do appear to be advancing on the axis south of Izium, but it is painfully slow. 

I keep hearing suggestions of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive southeast of Kharkiv.  Hasn't happened yet. 

The rumor mill is starting to go nuts and there are too many grifters now involved in reporting on Ukraine.  It's helpful to remind everyone just how many liars there are in the world, and that they'll often do it just for attention. 

We're not quite in WW1 or in WW2 or GW1 or GW2 or anywhere else.  This feels like two exhausted opponents in the 10th round of a fight, just trying to throw a punch now and then. 
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on May 01, 2022, 09:49:07 AM
Update:

Confirmed that Ukrainian reserves have been sent into the Severodonetsk Salient and the area around Slovyansk, instead of being concentrated for a counter-attack southeast of Kharkiv.  This means that the Ukrainian forces in the Salient and fighting south of Izium are not strong enough or have been degraded enough that they cannot withstand the Russian attacks by themselves.  This means more grinding, no sweeping Ukrainian counterattack that can end the war in Donbas. 

The Russians are piling on the attacks south of Izium and around Severodonetsk.  They are making very slow grinding progress, but progress nonetheless.  At this rate it could take weeks or months to effect a breakthrough or Russian victory.  But the Russians are currently gaining ground.  The hard part has always been and will remain just how degraded the Ukrainians are after 2+ months of fighting. 

The Ukrainians have had some success counterattacking around Kharkiv.  Some people say that this will draw the Russians back to reinforce, but I don't agree.  I think the Russians can retreat back across the Russian border and they'll be safe there.  I don't think the Ukrainians will send large ground formations into Russia.  There are some reasons that it would be a good idea and some reasons that it would be a bad idea, but I don't think they will do it.  So the Ukrainians will just have to sit on the border because they cannot redeploy as long as the Russians are sitting getting fat and happy right across the border.  What they NVA would do in Laos and Cambodia before we started bombing there, but never sending large ground formations for fear of "expanding the war". 

Rumors that the Russians are going to declare actual war, (not just a "special operation") and general mobilize on the 5th of May.  Or was it the 9th of May?  They got May Day and Victory Day.  Anyways, what does this mean?

There are plenty of people who do not believe that the Russians can really mobilize much better than they already have.  In certain aspects they are correct.  The Russians cannot really make more advanced equipment (tanks, IFV, artillery, ballistic missiles, etc).  They have some old stuff in storage but it's really old.  T-64s and T-55s.  What they can do is make Rife Divisions.  Going back old school WW2 Soviet infantry formations.  They have plenty of AK-47s.  How many can they make?  I don't know, but I guess they can make ten to 20 Rifle divisions easy if they want to.  That's a lot of Russians, and it's basically going back to the old Soviet way of war anyways.  Quantity having a quality all of it's own. 

The only think I would hesitate on is that they don't really have an officer corps sitting around on the wings to lead these Rifle Divisions.  They would have to mobilize a whole bunch of old reservists to man them. 

Anyways, the thing the Russians have always had is manpower.  They can try to fall back on that and see how it works in a modern war.  Americans were always forced to fall back on superior artillery and airpower when faced with similar adversaries in Korea and Vietnam.  Ukraine doesn't have a whole lot of airpower and is just now getting more artillery that will take a while to integrate. 

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Grant on May 01, 2022, 01:28:18 PM
Briefly:

Ukrainians claiming they wounded Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, in a high level meeting in Izium, after he was sent by Pooter to pit some fire in the Russian offensive. Claims he was wounded bad enough he was flown back to Moscow. Shrapnel in leg.

Demonstrates the value and abity of the Ukrainian intel gathering, and NATO intel gathering being shared. 

UN led evacuation of civilians from Azovstal. Good for the UN. First thing Ive heard them getting done in awhile.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on May 09, 2022, 11:18:54 AM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-didnt-seem-care-law-143426322.html

Trump helped Putin by holding up assistance for Ukraine.  I wonder if he was under orders by his pal Putin to hold it up?  I mean they were such buddies.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on May 17, 2022, 04:08:58 PM
Well now, I know a certain producer who is likely to have an accident for booking this guest.

Quote
Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Ouija Nightmare on May 17, 2022, 04:39:25 PM
Well now, I know a certain producer who is likely to have an accident for booking this guest.

Quote
Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".


Hmm looks like a pivot to me. They’ve always claimed that Ukraine is being used as a stooge for the west now they’re needing to build a case for how the Ukraine is even more dangerous than they realized and opens the path to using more serious weapons and painting a portrait of how it’s the West’s weapons that are killing young Russian men and not the stupid blunders of Russian leadership,

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on May 17, 2022, 09:33:50 PM
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-didnt-seem-care-law-143426322.html

"Trump helped Putin by holding up assistance for Ukraine.  I wonder if he was under orders by his pal Putin to hold it up?  I mean they were such buddies."

Or he was schmoozing the bear like he did the Taliban, rope a doping them so they wouldn't be provoked into all out war. Trumped billed himself as a great negotiator and wheeler-dealer.  Biden? Not so much, not from the man who has been proven incompetent over his decades in office as being on the wrong side of history time after time after time.


Whatever Trump did resulted in Putin not further invading Ukraine and the Taliban not taking over Afghanistan under his watch. Biden did an about face and unleashed hell in both places.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: jc44 on May 18, 2022, 06:32:28 AM
Whatever Trump did resulted in Putin not further invading Ukraine and the Taliban not taking over Afghanistan under his watch. Biden did an about face and unleashed hell in both places.
I'm not sure you can reasonably credit Trump with those non-disasters any more than you can blame him for existence of Covid.  Those are things that happened when he was in charge no more no less.

The Afghanistan debacle was Trumps plan executed (arguably poorly) by Biden with immediate consequences that no-one, on any side as far as I can tell, expected. Pretty much everyone expected the Afghan government to collapse, but no-one expected how fast it was going to be. And it would have collapsed if Trump was in charge too, the details might have been different but any assertion that it would have been worse/better is based purely on Faith not facts.

Can't say as to Ukraine.  My personal expectation is that Putin would have executed his "Special Military Operation" and Trump would have stood back and said that he was just reclaiming what was his anyway.  And whilst I can't know that it does fit with Trumps general inclination to reduce Americas military presence around the world.

I have no evidence that Trump caused Covid. And I don't think he did though of course it might have been some really cunning plot and the Chinese are in fact right when they say it was deliberated seeded in China by America to discredit them as part of Trumps long term anti-China campaign - that fits doesn't it!?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: cherrypoptart on May 18, 2022, 06:47:09 AM
What was Trump's Afghanistan plan anyway?

Wasn't there some provision in it that the Taliban wouldn't immediately attack city after city to take over the entire country? It seems like the deal was that we would leave and the Taliban wouldn't attack everyone everywhere.

As soon as the Taliban started attacking cities, it seems like Trump's plan, and any plan except apparently Biden's, would have called for another surge to keep the Taliban at bay since the Taliban reneged on their side of the bargain.

Unless of course the plan called for us to evacuate no matter what and the Taliban to take over. Was that the agreement either Trump or Biden made? That part of the deal never made the news.

Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: NobleHunter on May 18, 2022, 08:41:33 AM
Putin might have held off on Ukraine in hopes that Trump would dismantle NATO.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on May 18, 2022, 10:22:17 AM
Putin couldn't afford to invade Ukraine until oil prices increased and he built up a warchest.  That didn't happen until Trump threatened Saudi Arabia to increase oil prices or lose military exports from the US,

Quote
In an April 2 phone call, Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started cutting oil production, he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the kingdom, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The threat to upend a 75-year strategic alliance, which has not been previously reported, was central to the U.S. pressure campaign that led to a landmark global deal to slash oil supply as demand collapsed in the coronavirus pandemic - scoring a diplomatic victory for the White House.

Trump delivered the message to the crown prince 10 days before the announcement of production cuts. The kingdom’s de facto leader was so taken aback by the threat that he ordered his aides out of the room so he could continue the discussion in private, according to a U.S. source who was briefed on the discussion by senior administration officials.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-trump-saudi-specialreport/special-report-trump-told-saudi-cut-oil-supply-or-lose-u-s-military-support-sources-idUSKBN22C1V4

That deal was negotiated to last until April 2022.

That took Putin from being completely unable to afford invading the Ukraine, to having funds greatly in excess of what was anticipated.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: LetterRip on May 18, 2022, 10:34:16 AM
What was Trump's Afghanistan plan anyway?

Wasn't there some provision in it that the Taliban wouldn't immediately attack city after city to take over the entire country? It seems like the deal was that we would leave and the Taliban wouldn't attack everyone everywhere.

The deal was essentially the Taliban got the country and the US would leave the country and do nothing to interfere as long as US troops were not attacked.

Quote
As soon as the Taliban started attacking cities, it seems like Trump's plan, and any plan except apparently Biden's, would have called for another surge to keep the Taliban at bay since the Taliban reneged on their side of the bargain.

Nope, Trump completely surrendered to the Taliban in his treaty.  He had zero intention of the US military doing anything.  The Taliban didn't "reneg".  Trump pulled out the troops (illegally) that were necessary to maintain security, in the months before handover to Biden, so that it would be logistically impossible for Biden to reverse what Trump had done.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on May 18, 2022, 11:05:59 AM
Well a guilty plea on the first war crimes trial.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-soldier-pleads-guilty-killing-123135953.html
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: msquared on May 19, 2022, 10:54:56 AM
So what has Putin gained?  He has shown that his army is a paper tiger. He has convinced 2 countries that had remained steadfastly neutral to join NATO, one of which has a border with Russia, which is one of the reasons Putin did not want Ukraine to join NATO.  Fear of the great Russian Army has disappeard.

I wonder if Putins nukes are in as good of shape as the rest of his army?  Of course we don't really want to find out.  If the Nuke forces have been doing the same thing with the money they get as the rest of the Army has been doing, my guess is none of the missles have any fuel in them and maybe not even a bomb.  Or they have been so poorly maintained that they will blow up the second they are launched.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on May 19, 2022, 11:07:38 AM
So what has Putin gained?  He has shown that his army is a paper tiger. He has convinced 2 countries that had remained steadfastly neutral to join NATO, one of which has a border with Russia, which is one of the reasons Putin did not want Ukraine to join NATO.  Fear of the great Russian Army has disappeard.

I wonder if Putins nukes are in as good of shape as the rest of his army?  Of course we don't really want to find out.  If the Nuke forces have been doing the same thing with the money they get as the rest of the Army has been doing, my guess is none of the missles have any fuel in them and maybe not even a bomb.  Or they have been so poorly maintained that they will blow up the second they are launched.

Russia's military credibility appears to have sunk to North Korea levels. Yeah they got nukes, a whole lot of people wearing uniforms, artillery and missiles that can cause a real bad day for neighbors. They're turning themselves into a global pariah, also reminiscent of North Korea. Sanctions, embargoes, currency collapse. And a dictator with an iron grip on power with an increasing total lock on media.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on May 19, 2022, 11:29:10 AM
I don't consider Putin to be a reckless but I can't figure out what he was thinking he would gain.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDrake on May 19, 2022, 12:06:28 PM
I don't consider Putin to be a reckless but I can't figure out what he was thinking he would gain.

I assume he figured it would go like Crimea. That the West would make some token protests, Ukraine would quickly capitulate, and then.... I don't know what it gains. Restoration of the Empire? Having a strategic location to threaten Europe?
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: jc44 on May 19, 2022, 12:20:53 PM
I don't consider Putin to be a reckless but I can't figure out what he was thinking he would gain.

I assume he figured it would go like Crimea. That the West would make some token protests, Ukraine would quickly capitulate, and then.... I don't know what it gains. Restoration of the Empire? Having a strategic location to threaten Europe?
I think restoration of empire.  There seems to be a feeling (maybe not utterly unwarranted) that things were better in the USSR and they want it back. I'm pretty sure that Putin thought that Ukraine would fall as easily (and mostly bloodlessly) as Crimea.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: rightleft22 on May 19, 2022, 01:46:56 PM
Based on what a read there is a large segment of the population that longs for the 'good old days' under Stalin.
The transition from the time when the state was taking care of everything even if the people didn't have  didn't go well. It changed overnight and left allot of people behind. So I kind of get it.
Apparently people memories our short (as seen in the Philippines)

Anyway the idea of Empire in age of technology is Absurd and only a fool wouldn't understand that. There is no going back. At least not without a lot of bloodshed and undoing of the current finatial systems. Empire isn't about boots on the ground anymore its all informational and economic.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: TheDeamon on May 21, 2022, 09:11:57 PM
Based on what a read there is a large segment of the population that longs for the 'good old days' under Stalin.
The transition from the time when the state was taking care of everything even if the people didn't have  didn't go well. It changed overnight and left allot of people behind. So I kind of get it.


The ironic thing is that most of his support is coming from their version of the Baby Boomers. And there is an important thing to remember about Russia's production capabilities coming out of WW2.

You might have heard of this program the Americans started in March of 1941 and ran until the conclusion of WW2. It was called Lend-Lease. In addition to all of the production and material support we provided to the Russians, the Americans did one other thing in order to better optimize the kinds of support the Russians would need.

They sent production engineers into Russia to help them streamline and improve their domestic production capabilities. Because the more material they could produce domestically meant that other material support options opened up where Lend-Lease was concerned. In some respects, there are present day parallels that could be drawn with present day China, just over a much longer time scale in China's case.

Leap-frogging off of that Allied support from the 1940's (mostly just doing the equivalent of copy/past all over the Soviet Union) it gave the Soviets several decades of rapid industrialization and improvement in living conditions(which their baby boomers remember all too well), even if it didn't keep pace with "the west." With them even putting their own spin on things on sometimes iterating into some improved variants of their own... But eventually "state of the art 1940's" processes weren't sufficient for the Soviet Union to continue to dominate by the 1980's, although they were still plenty scary in the 1960's, 70's, and 80's. In hindsight, we know they pretty much peaked in the early 80's, arguably the 1970's all considered.

Quote
Apparently people memories our short (as seen in the Philippines)

Not sure what you mean about the Philippines? I've been ignoring the news though, so I guess it must be something recent.
Title: Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
Post by: Ouija Nightmare on May 22, 2022, 04:25:24 PM

Not sure what you mean about the Philippines? I've been ignoring the news though, so I guess it must be something recent.

The Chinese are ascendant in the Pacific and have scored in placing the progeny of the old dictator back into power by manipulating social media there so he won the election.

While idiots fight to impose their religion on others here in America we lose the world.

Keep treating the “libtards” like they’re your enemy and you’ll meet the real ones soon enough.