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General Category => General Comments => Topic started by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 12:30:46 AM

Title: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 12:30:46 AM
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5790cc54e4b0bdddc4d342fd

Most talking heads are spinning the RNC as a shambles, but it"s.really a tour de force, for good and bad. 

Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on July 22, 2016, 01:55:11 AM
Shambles?  No.  FiveThirtyEight currently estimates that Donald has about a 40 percent chance of winning the election.

But tour de force?  Hardly.  With delegates at the convention trying to free delegates to vote for someone else, John McCain staying at home in Arizona, and Ted Cruz refusing to endorse the candidate during a major speech at prime time...even the Republican Party is split over him.  We'll have Republicans locked arm-in-arm with Democrats decrying his win, if he should be so lucky.  That's hardly a tour de force in my book.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 02:11:23 AM
Shambles?  No.  FiveThirtyEight currently estimates that Donald has about a 40 percent chance of winning the election.

But tour de force?  Hardly.  With delegates at the convention trying to free delegates to vote for someone else, John McCain staying at home in Arizona, and Ted Cruz refusing to endorse the candidate during a major speech at prime time...even the Republican Party is split over him.  We'll have Republicans locked arm-in-arm with Democrats decrying his win, if he should be so lucky.  That's hardly a tour de force in my book.

Just offering my own opinion.  I have never in my entire life been able to stay awake during more than an hour of any Republican convention until this one.  Have you ever watched another Republican convention? By those standards, this one was a tour de force.

My parents were big Cruz supporters, and they were pretty disgusted by Cruz. Me, I didn't like him, but I don't see why "vote your conscience" is so controversial.  Go figure. 

I found a number of items in the speeches disturbing.  for example, I'm less impressed that Trump found a more politically correct way to say temporarily shut down all immigration from (Muslim) countries, than I am horrified at the principle of betraying the good people who supported and translated for our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.  It doesn't "put America first to tell America's friends and allies that we intend to sink a knife in their backs.  It hurts American intelligence to make it so we cannot protect people in Islamist societies that put their necks out for us.  Remember, the only reason some good Columbians survived the fight against Pablo Escobar, was that their judges could come to America to hide from Escobar's wrath after they ruled against him.

I look forward to watching the DNC with my girlfriend next week, since she's reconciled herself to voting for Hillary in the same way that my parents have for Trump.  Note I've never tried to talk you or them out of voting their conscience. 
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 02:54:05 AM
The numbers do show an RNC rise for the Republicans.  But crunching the numbers, I don't see how Trump can pull off a national win.  Even if the Amish make good on the threat to come out for their first election ever (why they like Trump is beyond me) that still leaves Trump 800,000 below there.  And if California's suspicious vote against Sanders is any indication, Florida's new machines are voting for Hillary regardless of what the people vote.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on July 22, 2016, 08:45:13 AM
Quote
FiveThirtyEight currently estimates that Donald has about a 40 percent chance of winning the election.
I highlighted the key word in that estimate.  It's time to get involved before this gets completely out of control.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on July 22, 2016, 10:35:06 AM
“One of the things I’ve been concerned about this week is we’re all sitting in our bubble, having a good laugh at this total, as you said, *censored*show, but the truth is that this plays to a lot of people” 

We don’t learn from history so Moore is probably right.

And no I’m not comparing Trump to Hitler, Franko or Mussolini but referring to the campaign of the theater of exceptionalism(nationalism), us them, fear, blame, anti-intellectualism, and a population manipulated to overlook character that put such men (who prey on fear) in power.

And then when history looks back on such moments they mention how the establishment failed to take such men seriously, and thought they could manage them, and how the majority of the people looked away and "let" *censored* happen stunned like a dear in headlights.

It boggles the mind that a person can overlook the character of a man

If I hear one more time someone say that yes they have concerns about his political, professional, personas but apparently his one on one and family man personas are great so sure I can support him. Oh but when it comes to the other leaders character, well that’s all that matters. How does Trumpism do that? Why are so many people falling for it?

When does it mean when you boo the statement “vote you’re conscious”.  A subliminal suggestion that the mob isn’t’ voting consciously!!! Its all shadow! (the image of Trump first appearance at the RNC as the emerging larger then life shadow should scare the crap out of everyone!)

You want big government intervention, you want freedom by limiting freedom (freedom for the angry white man anyway) Vote for Trump he’s your voice.  He’s your fracking Voice!!! Do you hear the crap your saying, what you’re really saying!  what you really are standing for! Wake UP!!!
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: JoshCrow on July 22, 2016, 11:23:35 AM
When does it mean when you boo the statement “vote you’re conscious”.  A subliminal suggestion that the mob isn’t’ voting consciously!!!

To correct the record, it is "vote your conscience" and not "vote you're conscious".

Voting is usually a conscious act (although some voters are arguably just zombies who pull levers without any thought). It is not always a conscientious one.

Actually, I think a good slogan might be "Vote! You're conscious!"
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on July 22, 2016, 11:43:41 AM
Or perhaps the enjoinder, "Vote while conscious!" :)
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: DJQuag on July 22, 2016, 12:41:03 PM
I just saw the sane people in the UK assume that the citizenry wouldn't cut their own throats, and we got Brexit and, just for starters, a loss of fourteen percent of the worth of our money.

The left's biggest enemy in this election is itself. If people geto complacent and think that there's no way Trump could win...well, that's about the only way that he can win.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on July 22, 2016, 01:00:26 PM
Exactly
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 01:31:56 PM
Shouldn't have counted on Trump to drive Republicans into Hillary's arms.

were you even watching?  He never mentioned abortion or planned parenthood.  There hasn't been an RNC since Gerald Ford where abortion wasn't center stage.  He highlighted gay rights and even mouthed the "GLBTQ" shibboleth, and still they cheered him.

You shouldn't have let Hillary blatantly cheat at the polls.  You shouldn't have let her keep running when she was blatantly lying in her testimony before Congress, even if you thought the investigation was unfair.  Exit polls say Bernie should have won that nomination hands down.  You want to stop trump from winning, you have to sacrifice Hillary.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on July 22, 2016, 01:43:41 PM
So your ok with a man like Trump being your voice??
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on July 22, 2016, 01:44:57 PM
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/21/12218136/donald-trump-nomination-afraid
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 02:34:39 PM
So your ok with a man like Trump being your voice??

Please tell me you're not talking to me.  I thought we'd had this conversation before. as far as I'm concerned, a vote for Hillary is a vote for Trump and vice versa.  Question is, are *you* ok with Trump being your voice? If so, then keep supporting Hillary.

Like Al said, the time to act is NOW.  You have days or hours until the Democratic Convention.  Without Hillary, the entire Republican facade of unity will crumble.  If y'all haven't killed Bernie yet, I suggest you drag him back out of cold storage.

I say you because I  renounced my membership in the DNC the day that Bernie endorsed Hillary Clinton; I am done with political parties. It's a meaningless gesture but it's all I can do.

I don't think either Hillary or Trump is quite as bad as their opponents protray them, but I cannot in conscience vote for either.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 02:46:17 PM
http://www.vox.com/2016/7/21/12218136/donald-trump-nomination-afraid

Quote
Trump is a liar....Trump is a narcissist. Trump is vindictive. 
and Hillary isn't?
Quote
Trump is a bigot.
did you hear Hillary's response to the police shootings?  blame the victim.  Yes there are some horrible cases out there where cops have negligently killed or even murdered innocents, but the ones that died in Dallas died as heroes protecting the lives of those that protest against them, and they deserve to be remembered for that without the spectre of other cops' crimes hanging over their funerals.

Quote
Trump is a sexist.
What do you call Hillary's squad insisting that any female that doesn't vote Hillary is a "traitor" to her gynie parts?

Quote
Trump admires authoritarian dictators for their authoritarianism.
Hillary isn't authoritarian?

Trump's entire support is based on fear of Hillary.  If you want to make bet on a candidate whose entire support is based on fear of Trump, then don't blame conscientious objectors if you roll snake eyes.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: NobleHunter on July 22, 2016, 02:53:02 PM
Has Clinton provided cover and support for the "sexists" on her side in the same way that Trump has for the racists?

Quote
Hillary isn't authoritarian?
Not in the same sense that Putin is.

I don't see how any significant support for Trump can be due to fear of Clinton. Trump's rhetoric and demagoguery has very little to do with his opponent except that his opponent is a politically-correct mealy-mouthed politician who won't do what's necessary to Make! America! Great! In other words: anyone but him.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 02:57:33 PM
I admired Christy's speech for its style and power, but was horrified at the effect of crowds shouting "Guilty" like it was some sort of show trial.  Someone might file a bar complaint against him.

There were parts of Trump's speech where he sounded so reasonable I actually considered voting for him. I can't, because I strongly support Obama's immigration reform (http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865601049/LDS-Church-reaffirms-stance-on-immigration.html?pg=all), and because Trumps proposal destroys national security by screwing over our allies and in particular non-americans from ISIS prone countries who have put themselves and their families on the line to help America.  You can put America first without being stupid or dishonorable.  See http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/faultlines/2016/03/left-america-afghan-translators-160329132304215.html

Senate Fails To Secure Visas For Afghan Interpreters Who Risked Their Lives For U.S. Troops (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/senate-afghan-visa-program_us_5759b1fee4b00f97fba79a16)
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on July 22, 2016, 02:57:39 PM
II'm not good at this form of communication. I know what I want to say but can't say it
I give up

We get the people leading us that we deserve.   
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 02:58:48 PM
Has Clinton provided cover and support for the "sexists" on her side in the same way that Trump has for the racists?

Quote
Hillary isn't authoritarian?
Not in the same sense that Putin is.

I don't see how any significant support for Trump can be due to fear of Clinton. Trump's rhetoric and demagoguery has very little to do with his opponent except that his opponent is a politically-correct mealy-mouthed politician who won't do what's necessary to Make! America! Great! In other words: anyone but him.

If democrats believe that, then they should give up Hillary.  If they don't give up Hillary, then clearly they don't see Trump as dangerous as they say he is.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 03:00:58 PM
II'm not good at this form of communication. I know what I want to say but can't say it
I give up

We get the people leading us that we deserve.

I fear you're right. Bill Clinton, George W Bush and now these two candidates ... they are basically what we've asked for, culturally, in our shallowness.

as bad as Obama was in many respects, he may have been better than we deserve.  now for the real plunge.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: NobleHunter on July 22, 2016, 03:07:07 PM
I admired Christy's speech for its style and power, but was horrified at the effect of crowds shouting "Guilty" like it was some sort of show trial.  Someone might file a bar complaint against him.
Christie's speech freaked me out because it's the sort of thing that risks turning politics back into a blood sport, like, the win or die kind. A candidate for President shouldn't feel she risks going to jail on trumped (*rimshot*) charges if she loses. There might still be good reasons to send her to prison but most of what Christie said isn't it.

Though I was impressed by Cruz's rejection of Trump, which was incredibly crass and ungentlemanly but also sorely needed.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 03:25:54 PM
I admired Christy's speech for its style and power, but was horrified at the effect of crowds shouting "Guilty" like it was some sort of show trial.  Someone might file a bar complaint against him.
Christie's speech freaked me out because it's the sort of thing that risks turning politics back into a blood sport, like, the win or die kind. A candidate for President shouldn't feel she risks going to jail on trumped (*rimshot*) charges if she loses. There might still be good reasons to send her to prison but most of what Christie said isn't it.

Though I was impressed by Cruz's rejection of Trump, which was incredibly crass and ungentlemanly but also sorely needed.

I actually sympathized with him when is said it was revenge for remarks against his wife.  Yes, Trump crossed a line there, and I'd feel less scared of him if he was man enough to apologize, even if Cruz is a dick.

agreed that Christy is playing with fire. The kind of fire that burned Paris and Rome.  I half expected him to pull a bloody cloak out and throw it to the audience.  The emotion stuff was good, and I'd be OK with the speech if they'd been shouting "indict" rather than "guilty."
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: DJQuag on July 22, 2016, 03:29:56 PM
I didn't see the speech myself, but didn't Ivana Trump talk about the importance of equal pay and maternal/paternal leave in her speech? The crowd also cheered for that.

Trump is slowly but surely cutting into the easy attacks for the Clinton camp to make. I witnessed this in the last UK general election; conservatism isn't dying, *social conservativism* is dying, and a conservative candidate that dumps the social nonsense and sticks to economic conservatism is still a very serious opponent, most especially when their opponent is HRC.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: DJQuag on July 22, 2016, 03:31:52 PM
Even if I were on the fence, and I'm not, the NATO comments would have sent me flying away from Trump at light speed.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Fenring on July 22, 2016, 03:48:18 PM
It boggles the mind that a person can overlook the character of a man

If I hear one more time someone say that yes they have concerns about his political, professional, personas but apparently his one on one and family man personas are great so sure I can support him. Oh but when it comes to the other leaders character, well that’s all that matters. How does Trumpism do that? Why are so many people falling for it?

I'm not sure you're thinking clearly about this or else you'd see the irony of your complaint here. You're saying Trump's public persona shouldn't discounted on account of his supposed private persona. Fine. Does you likewise think Hillary's private persona should be discounted on account of her public one? Publicly Hillary tends to come off as collected, professional, 'in charge'. Privately she's reportedly hellish to her staff, something of a screaming harpy, doesn't treat people nicely, had regular screaming matches with Bill in the White House, and rumor has it she even punched him in the face once (secret service reports he came out of a private meeting with her with a black eye, which they claimed was an 'accident').

So if you're so concerned about someone's private and public personas matching up I'm not sure if you're merely anti-Trump or trying to make a case for Hillary as well. If the latter then I'll be scratching my head at your logic.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 03:53:00 PM
Quote
It boggles the mind that a person can overlook the character of a man

It boggles the mind that a person can overlook the character of a woman, too.  but what I see here among Republicans is people with grave concerns about his character, style and some positions, feeling like they have no choice because the alternative is Hillary.  One elderly gentleman who hasn't voted for a Democrat in 60 years confided in me that Trump's gestures remind him of Mussolini.

Quote
A Mexican standoff is a confrontation between two or more parties in which no participant can proceed or retreat without being exposed to danger. As a result, all participants need to maintain the strategic tension, which remains unresolved until some outside event makes it possible to resolve it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_standoff


It's like Republicans and Democrats are playing chicken, and I don't think either side is going to blink.  Don't blame the folks that are bailing out of your cars.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: NobleHunter on July 22, 2016, 04:30:09 PM
I didn't see the speech myself, but didn't Ivana Trump talk about the importance of equal pay and maternal/paternal leave in her speech? The crowd also cheered for that.
The way I've seen it portrayed is that they were cheering the ideas because they were associated with Trump rather than the ideas themselves. It's cult of personality cheering rather than support for ideas.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: DJQuag on July 22, 2016, 04:31:50 PM
http://www.mediaite.com/online/leaked-dnc-emails-reveal-discussions-about-attacking-bernie-sanders-religion/

Holy balls. I'll always be a liberal,  but I'm never calling myself a Democrat again.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on July 22, 2016, 04:50:19 PM
Quote
It boggles the mind that a person can overlook the character of a woman, too.

I'm not so concerned about his character (hard to find a politician with any :)), but with his experience.

He glibly talks about, "Oh, I'll make a better deal on the TPP."  I don't think the fool has an inkling as to what that involves.

The TPP was negotiated over years with numerous nations, each sending a team of negotiators, each jockeying to create the best deal for themselves and screwing over the other guy if at all possible.  You're talking about dozens, if not hundreds, of different agendas, all competing with one another.  The fact that they got any deal out of it is a miracle in itself.

But the way Donald sees it, he can just call them all in and redo the whole thing to his liking.  ::)

The man has no clue on how difficult running a country is.  International relationships.  Internal politics.  National economics.  The inevitable scandals.  He blithely thinks that, because he ran some large businesses (some to bankruptcy), that he is qualified to do all that.  That his business experience alone gives him all the tools he needs.

A knowledgeable candidate with bad character may enrich himself with the office, but he'll keep the country going, if only to protect himself and his investments.  An egotistical ignoramus could make mistakes that will hurt the entire country without realizing it (such as threatening to renege on our promises to our NATO allies).  It's like that line from "Better Call Saul":  "...[it's] like giving a chimp a machine gun."  He may not even understand the damage he could do.

Trump strikes me as a guy at a bar who can solve the world's problems over a glass of beer.  Everything is so simple to him.  Because he hasn't had to actually try to do them...

He's lacking in character, sure.  But more importantly he lacks experience, humility, forethought, patience, and caution.  He doesn't worry about making a mistake, and doesn't care.  And that, more than any "good character," is what scares me about Trump.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 04:54:01 PM
http://www.mediaite.com/online/leaked-dnc-emails-reveal-discussions-about-attacking-bernie-sanders-religion/

Holy balls. I'll always be a liberal,  but I'm never calling myself a Democrat again.

Good catch.  If I hadn't resigned the party when Bernie endorsed Hillary, I would do so now.

Quote
In an email dated May 5, DNC CFO Brad Marshall apparently floats the idea of trying to raise Sanders’ potential atheism. The email does not mention Sanders by name. The email says, “It might may no difference, but for KY and WVA can we get someone to ask his belief. Does he believe in a God. He had skated on saying he has a Jewish heritage. I think I read he is an atheist. This could make several points difference with my peeps. My Southern Baptist peeps would draw a big difference between a Jew and an atheist.”
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: scifibum on July 22, 2016, 05:05:29 PM
Clinton may be dishonest and self serving, but she has a pretty firm grasp on reality.  Trump has provided plenty of evidence that he doesn't.  That's why he's a much worse prospect.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 05:29:03 PM
Clinton may be dishonest and self serving, but she has a pretty firm grasp on reality.  Trump has provided plenty of evidence that he doesn't.  That's why he's a much worse prospect.

"We are the president of the united states" unfortunately was a pre-internet quote and I can't find it.  Wasn't it something she screamed at a journalist in Sundance, Utah?

Reality questions in Hillary emails (http://reason.com/blog/2015/07/01/saddest-hillary-clinton-email-revealed-i)

Sleep deprived Hillary dodges imaginary snipers in Bosnia (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ellen-ladowsky/hillarys-psychic-reality_b_99896.html)

anyone surrounded by yes men is going to have reality issues, which is why the Republic of Ragusa's golden ball system (aside from the aristocratic restriction) was much superior to the US system which is based on Rome, and was the cause of Rome's civil wars.

 I haven't seen Trump dodging bullets from imaginary snipers.
Quote
Of course, it wasn’t one time. It wasn’t late at night. She wasn’t exhausted because she said it three different times. And she didn’t apologize immediately (or even close to immediately). It also begged the question: If Hillary could be gaga at 11:00 pm, what would she be like when the phone rings at 3:00 am?

Interestingly, it's my parents, who really don't like Hillary, who defended her on the atheist snafu.  My dad points out that it's to her credit that she rejected the proposal, in a state that she was losing to Sanders.  That looks like a glimmering of integrity.  a line she declined to cross.

Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Fenring on July 22, 2016, 05:46:45 PM
He glibly talks about, "Oh, I'll make a better deal on the TPP."  I don't think the fool has an inkling as to what that involves.

Despite the nonsense most politicians claim they'll be able to do once they're president, this is one thing a president actually could do. The entire TPP deal would be scuttled if America backed out, and therefore the president would have the power to hold it hostage if he actually wanted it changed. It can't be amended once brought before Congress (fast track) but it can be altered beforehand. Trump has gone on record numerous times calling out how bad a deal it is and how trade deals like this kill jobs in America. If he really means it then yes, he could do something about the deal.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on July 22, 2016, 06:21:49 PM
To clarify my remarks

I'm not saying that if someone was justifying there support of Hillary in the same manner that that would be ok. I am not hearing that kind of justification  coming from her supporters, however I may not be noticing for the noise that Trump makes.

I find the arguments and justifications people are using are not rational and find the type of discourse frightening. I know I"m not explaining myself very well...

Trump lies but Hillary is a lyer , Trump bully's but isn't a bully, Hilary bullies and is a bully What sticks on Hillary does not stick on Trump. What sticks on any other politicians does not stick on Trump and that to my mind is dangerous

What Trump represents physiologically is dangerous. Take out the labels of democrat or republican, watch him, listen to him and how people respond to him. Who they become. It isn't political, what I'm saying isn't political. Hilary maybe a bad person who time ought to have passed, but something about Trump is... off

I don't see this ending well

Has Trump read the papers on TPP?
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on July 22, 2016, 07:27:41 PM
Trump's entire support is based on fear of Hillary.  If you want to make bet on a candidate whose entire support is based on fear of Trump, then don't blame conscientious objectors if you roll snake eyes.

The one time I listened to Limbaugh this year was shortly after the Brexit vote just to see what he'd be saying. He discussed Trump in all of that because of the golf course thing in Scotland. I think a valid point was brought forward in his monologue on Trump however. You have just utterly failed to understand Trump's support base, and this is where the Democrats are in trouble.

Trump has been a media personality for decades, and thanks to things like The Apprentice, he has built a sizable support base just going off of popular perceptions of him as a business man. No matter how hard anybody tries to pry those supporters away from Trump, regardless of where they are on the political spectrum, they are going to fail. Those supporters are excited, and they're energized, and they're connected to their candidate. This is something that wasn't the case with Romney and McCain.

Moving away from his monologue, that even somewhat applies to Bush(although he had his father's coat tails to play off of after 8 years of Clinton).

In many respects, Trump came into the election with a ready made support base from his celebrity businessman/tycoon persona, much like Obama had an energized and excited political base built off the popularity of his books which many voters connected to, and his gift for delivering speeches.

Trying to get between Trump and "his base" is like trying to get between Obama and "his base." Tactics that would work on most other candidates 99% of the time won't work on Trump because of that "connection" with his supporters. Just as they didn't work on Obama, because try as you might, you can't undermine that "connection" without a LOT of work.

For that matter, even Bill Clinton was(and evidently still is) good at "connecting" with people, but even what he built is a pale shadow to what either Obama or Trump have. Hillary may be leveraging a lot of Bill Clinton's earlier work, and Obama may be trying to provide some support as well, but she is no President Obama, or Bill Clinton.

The other problem Hillary has is all of the (national) political baggage she has amassed on the National Stage since 1992, where she's spent much of that time in one spotlight or another, she isn't much of an unknown factor, people largely made up their minds about her a long time ago. Which basically means this election boils down to how people decide to measure Trump when compared against her.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on July 22, 2016, 07:31:03 PM
Trump is slowly but surely cutting into the easy attacks for the Clinton camp to make. I witnessed this in the last UK general election; conservatism isn't dying, *social conservativism* is dying, and a conservative candidate that dumps the social nonsense and sticks to economic conservatism is still a very serious opponent, most especially when their opponent is HRC.

And it is about *#@&ing time that it died such a death. I'm not completely opposed to social conservatism, but the (christian fundamentalist) social conservative can go take a hike. I don't want them legislating my or anyone else's activities just as much as I don't want some flavor of the month LGBT Alliance legislating them.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on July 22, 2016, 07:33:07 PM
What Trump represents physiologically is dangerous. Take out the labels of democrat or republican, watch him, listen to him and how people respond to him. Who they become. It isn't political, what I'm saying isn't political. Hilary maybe a bad person who time ought to have passed, but something about Trump is... off

Donald Trump is Bill Clinton if he had taken up Real Estate instead of politics as his first career focus.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 22, 2016, 08:00:03 PM
Trump is slowly but surely cutting into the easy attacks for the Clinton camp to make. I witnessed this in the last UK general election; conservatism isn't dying, *social conservativism* is dying, and a conservative candidate that dumps the social nonsense and sticks to economic conservatism is still a very serious opponent, most especially when their opponent is HRC.

And it is about *#@&ing time that it died such a death. I'm not completely opposed to social conservatism, but the (christian fundamentalist) social conservative can go take a hike. I don't want them legislating my or anyone else's activities just as much as I don't want some flavor of the month LGBT Alliance legislating them.

Then join me (darth vader voice) in referring to the QGBLT whenever you have something positive to say about gay rights.  It sews confusion into the hearts of the brainwashed that you can support their good ideas while dotting every i and crossing every t of their modish surf-speak.  It also helps separate the gay rights folks that you can reason with from those who are about marching in jack-step harmony.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on July 23, 2016, 12:08:42 PM
I can't wait for someone to hack into the RNC email servers so we can find out what they were saying about Trump.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 23, 2016, 02:44:38 PM
I can't wait for someone to hack into the RNC email servers so we can find out what they were saying about Trump.

Absolutely.  Let the sunshine in, brother. But curious what you'll say when those docs show that Mitch McConnell and other of your pet demons are in bed with Hillary Clinton with Trump and the KOCH brothers empire.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on July 26, 2016, 04:05:02 PM
He glibly talks about, "Oh, I'll make a better deal on the TPP."  I don't think the fool has an inkling as to what that involves.

Despite the nonsense most politicians claim they'll be able to do once they're president, this is one thing a president actually could do. The entire TPP deal would be scuttled if America backed out, and therefore the president would have the power to hold it hostage if he actually wanted it changed. It can't be amended once brought before Congress (fast track) but it can be altered beforehand. Trump has gone on record numerous times calling out how bad a deal it is and how trade deals like this kill jobs in America. If he really means it then yes, he could do something about the deal.

You're right that Trump could do something about it.  He could scuttle it.  He could make minor changes to it.  But making a "better deal?"  It took 7 years to negotiate this treaty, with negotiations stalled since 2012 (per Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership)).  How would he "make a better deal?"

Any major changes he proposed (demanded) would kill it.  The other countries were in no hurry to finalize it; enough would have no problem scuttling it.

Even I, who has no experience with negotiations, knows he can't just waltz in and change the treaty at the last minute.  But he thinks he can.  He thinks its just another hotel deal, just on a bigger scale.  He has no clue...

Yes, he could do something about it.  Just not what he imagines he could do... :(
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Fenring on July 26, 2016, 04:30:20 PM
Even I, who has no experience with negotiations, knows he can't just waltz in and change the treaty at the last minute.  But he thinks he can.  He thinks its just another hotel deal, just on a bigger scale.  He has no clue...

Yes, he could do something about it.  Just not what he imagines he could do... :(

If we assume for the moment he was speaking shrewdly his comment could be interpreted as meaning scuttling it would be a better deal. I'm not sure I want to make that claim on his behalf, so maybe you're right that he's not quite clear on what his actual abilities are there. To be fair, though, he's probably counting on the vast majority of Americans having no clue what TPP is anyhow (at least in specifics), so I doubt he's taking any kind of political risk making boasts on this topic. It's enough to appease people against the deal to speak negatively about it. Contrast this with his talk of building a wall, which pretty much everyone will be able to verify he did or did not do during his first term.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on July 26, 2016, 05:06:30 PM
I can't wait for someone to hack into the RNC email servers so we can find out what they were saying about Trump.

I'm sure that the Clintons' Chinese friends are working on it as we speak, and the Chinese hackers are better than the Russians.  Unfortunately, I suspect that Trump's people are less sloppy than Hillary's people with their servers.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Seriati on July 26, 2016, 06:55:13 PM
Honestly, not sure what you'll find, the RNC was openly hostile to Trump.  Loyalty pledges, desperation, and he was pretty nasty back to them, including in the public debates when he called them out for filling the audience with contributors.  Even now, that they're stuck with him, they're clearly barely able to endorse him.

I still think it's funny, that Trump has so little conservative credibility, has been acknowledged as being potential a left plant to get Hillary elected, has a history of a number of non-conservative opinions and even made totally mainstream social issue comments in his speeches, and the Left still acts like its the absolute end of the world if he'd get elected. 
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on July 26, 2016, 10:06:48 PM
Honestly, not sure what you'll find, the RNC was openly hostile to Trump.  Loyalty pledges, desperation, and he was pretty nasty back to them, including in the public debates when he called them out for filling the audience with contributors.  Even now, that they're stuck with him, they're clearly barely able to endorse him.

I still think it's funny, that Trump has so little conservative credibility, has been acknowledged as being potential a left plant to get Hillary elected, has a history of a number of non-conservative opinions and even made totally mainstream social issue comments in his speeches, and the Left still acts like its the absolute end of the world if he'd get elected.

This time 1 million. Let us also not forget the histrionics about how badly Trump is going to mangle the U.S. Legal system with rampant illegal and unconstitutional actions.

And completely ignoring the Republican tendency to quickly throw high level Republicans under the bus at the merest hint of a scandal. Or that Republicans are the only ones to try to impeach a President. Or the matter that nobody who was awake for the first quarter of this year should seriously believe most of the Republicans in Congress want to be linked with Trump.

If Trump "goes crazy" in Office, the Republicans are likely to be the first ones in line to force him out of office, by any means available.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on July 27, 2016, 10:54:33 AM
Honestly, not sure what you'll find, the RNC was openly hostile to Trump.  Loyalty pledges, desperation, and he was pretty nasty back to them, including in the public debates when he called them out for filling the audience with contributors.  Even now, that they're stuck with him, they're clearly barely able to endorse him.
Nice sidestep.  You are saying it is well-known that the RNC was hostile to Trump, so the emails won't reveal anything?  OTOH, you also knew that the DNC was tilted for Hillary, but you're outraged to find out that the emails contain negative things about Bernie.  'Splain me the rules here, I don't understand how this works...

Quote
I still think it's funny, that Trump has so little conservative credibility, has been acknowledged as being potential a left plant to get Hillary elected, has a history of a number of non-conservative opinions and even made totally mainstream social issue comments in his speeches, and the Left still acts like its the absolute end of the world if he'd get elected.
You have to focus like a laser on those things you have mentioned by steering around the cesspool of the vast number of things he has said that should not only horrify "the left" but should make any reasonable person run away from him as fast and far as possible.  Yet, you're giving him cover for some reason.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: scifibum on July 27, 2016, 11:35:24 AM
We aren't afraid of him being credibly conservative.  I would gladly take McCain or Romney right now.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on July 27, 2016, 11:46:35 AM
I still think it's funny, that Trump has so little conservative credibility, has been acknowledged as being potential a left plant to get Hillary elected, has a history of a number of non-conservative opinions and even made totally mainstream social issue comments in his speeches, and the Left still acts like its the absolute end of the world if he'd get elected.

It's this kind of binary thinking that has gotten up into trouble these days.

What makes you think that, just because a large number of Conservatives dislike Trump, that Liberals would automatically like him?  That since Liberals don't agree with Conservatives on a number of issues, that automatically we would take the opposite stand on all issues?

Trump is odious to Liberals on a number of important issues, like fairness, justice, experience, logic, and truth, just to name a few.  He has no respect for anything or anyone other than himself.  Many of his "proposals" (really blustering statements of what he will do--and it'll be "HUGE!" :) ) are the antithesis of what America stands for.  We recognize a potential disaster in the making from a mile away.

No one knows that Trump truly believes.  Any comments about liberal issues have as much weight of being true as his conservative comments, perhaps less (since he does represent the party Conservatives embrace).  We don't trust him to fulfill any of those.

What we truly cannot understand is why Republicans trust him--at all.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Fenring on July 27, 2016, 12:15:23 PM
We aren't afraid of him being credibly conservative.  I would gladly take McCain or Romney right now.

Um...not me. McCain is about my zeroth choice for anything, possibly even below Jeb Bush!

Al and WS, I think Seriati's point is that if Trump actually is lying about being a conservative to troll the GOP and get elected then the liberals can in some sense rest easy that they won't be getting a real conservative if he's elected. In other words, if the claims of the left are accurate, that he makes things up and says whatever nonsense will get him through the day, then it seems reasonable to assume that his general positions in the past will still be his positions when he's elected. That would place him as a centrist or maybe somewhat right-wing Democrat, he is just content to lie about his beliefs to undermine the GOP convention. Granted, that assumes he isn't sincere about his beliefs at this point, but if he IS sincere then that dispels an entire set of complaints against him (and yet leaves us with an array of positions the left actually does fear).
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on July 27, 2016, 01:33:05 PM
Al and WS, I think Seriati's point is that if Trump actually is lying about being a conservative to troll the GOP and get elected then the liberals can in some sense rest easy that they won't be getting a real conservative if he's elected. In other words, if the claims of the left are accurate, that he makes things up and says whatever nonsense will get him through the day, then it seems reasonable to assume that his general positions in the past will still be his positions when he's elected. That would place him as a centrist or maybe somewhat right-wing Democrat, he is just content to lie about his beliefs to undermine the GOP convention. Granted, that assumes he isn't sincere about his beliefs at this point, but if he IS sincere then that dispels an entire set of complaints against him (and yet leaves us with an array of positions the left actually does fear).

It's those array of positions that makes Seriati's position so ludicrous.  It's "funny" that "the Left still acts like its the absolute end of the world if [Trump would] get elected" when Trump says some of the most outrageous things to the Left's point of view?  Since Trump isn't a die-hard Conservative, he may seem like a "centrist" to Seriati.  But to the Left, he's still far, far Right, and perhaps further Right than some of those die-hard Conservatives!  :o
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: yossarian22c on July 27, 2016, 01:57:39 PM
Actually Wayword, Trump is fairly centrist on social issues.  He is far right on building a wall, and to the populist right on economic statements.  My concerns about Trump are largely around his admiration of authoritarianism and statements that show that is how he plans to govern.  It is hard to know exactly what policies Trump would pursue b/c the solution to every problem is Trump, "it will be great", or "I'll fix it" seem to be about as detailed as his policy proposals get.  The things he has been specific on are either frightening or absurd.  In the frightening category when told bombing terrorists families was illegal and Generals would not obey those orders he replied they would if I gave them.  In the absurd category we have building a wall on the Mexico boarder and forcing Mexico to pay for it.  You don't get to charge your neighbors for your construction projects, works the same for nations.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on July 27, 2016, 02:16:27 PM
Quote
Al and WS, I think Seriati's point is that if Trump actually is lying about being a conservative to troll the GOP and get elected then the liberals can in some sense rest easy that they won't be getting a real conservative if he's elected.
You're making a Yuge assumption that you can believe anything he says about anything.  He flips his positions all the time and never even admits he's doing it.

And to what Yossarian22c said, Word!
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 09, 2016, 03:03:47 AM
I hope Moore's depressing prediction is receding in the rear view mirror to the point of disappearing.  Besides the 50 Republican foreign policy experts who publicly denounced Trump in a letter yesterday (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/09/us/politics/national-security-gop-donald-trump.html?_r=0), Rick Wilson of the NY Daily News has written a biting and powerful call to "beat [Trump] like a drum" (http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/rick-wilson-beat-trump-drum-article-1.2739979) for there to be any hope of saving the Republican Party:
Quote
I want to be clear here. As a principled conservative, I loathe the high likelihood that Hillary Clinton will — barring a bear attack or some other unforeseen externality — win this election.

She'll nominate liberal Supreme Court justices. We'll lose religious liberty. We'll have our Second Amendment freedoms compromised. Chuck Schumer's immigration bill is going to be so bad it will make many of us beg for the Gang of Eight.

However, Trump would be far worse. He'd be more dangerous to our safety and our republic. And since I know his loss is coming, I pray to God that it is total. You should, too.
  He's even gone beyond that and become the campaign chairman for a new (and unlikely) conservative, Evan McMullin (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/08/08/evan-mcmullin-can-t-beat-donald-trump-but-he-can-make-sure-he-loses.html), who is trying to join the race for the sole purpose of taking votes away from Trump.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 10, 2016, 05:21:52 PM
After Trump's 2A comment yesterday, I bet that Clinton could shoot him on 5th Avenue and still get elected.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: JoshCrow on August 10, 2016, 06:07:28 PM
Fivethirtyeight now puts Trump at under 15% odds if the election were held today. Moore looks a bit more like Chicken Little lately.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 10, 2016, 06:19:16 PM

"After Trump's 2A comment yesterday, I bet that Clinton could shoot him on 5th Avenue and still get elected."


You mean like that DNC emails leaker?
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 10, 2016, 11:30:09 PM

"After Trump's 2A comment yesterday, I bet that Clinton could shoot him on 5th Avenue and still get elected."

You mean like that DNC emails leaker?
You mean you believe that trash talk?  Trump has put so many nails in his own coffin lately that he hardly needs more, but I do hope he starts repeating that accusation.  I think he has a chance to get about 40% of the vote as things stand today, but comments like that could drive it even lower.  Do you agree with Giuliani that security experts who actually know something about security can't be trusted because they are security experts.  We need some fresh faces to figure that stuff out, like maybe some high school seniors who are looking for internships.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on August 11, 2016, 12:45:44 AM
Do you agree with Giuliani that security experts who actually know something about security can't be trusted because they are security experts.  We need some fresh faces to figure that stuff out, like maybe some high school seniors who are looking for internships.

Can't speak for the former mayor, but I'd take that to mean looking at the field agents and techs for new leadership rather than going for yet another person who worked their way through the political process of the bureaucracy.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 11, 2016, 02:21:58 AM
yossarian22c

"Actually Wayword, Trump is fairly centrist on social issues.  He is far right on building a wall..."

I just heard something recently that made me wonder about that.

"The US and Mexico share a common border of about 2,000-miles (3,200-km). As of February 10, 2012, the Department of Homeland Security had completed 651 miles of fencing out of nearly 652 miles mandated by Congress, including 299 miles of vehicle barriers and 352 miles of pedestrian fence."

I'm not sure what the current numbers are on how much we've put up already but the point is we've already built over 600 miles of barrier before Trump said a word on the subject and I don't know how much has been built under Obama but I imagine at least some of it. So how is it crazy or far right to finish what we've already started and Obama has been continuing?
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 11, 2016, 09:16:10 AM
Do you agree with Giuliani that security experts who actually know something about security can't be trusted because they are security experts.  We need some fresh faces to figure that stuff out, like maybe some high school seniors who are looking for internships.

Can't speak for the former mayor, but I'd take that to mean looking at the field agents and techs for new leadership rather than going for yet another person who worked their way through the political process of the bureaucracy.
There's no question that there are competent and talented people in the ranks who would want to rise and would do well.  But if you look at the list of the 50 security experts who denounced Trump, the vast majority were career professionals rather than political appointees with no background, all of whom served under or advised Republican administrations.  As to Trump's pushback against them:
Quote
Trump was equally as harsh, calling the 50 part of the "failed Washington elite" — insiders who, along with Hillary Clinton, made "disastrous decisions to invade Iraq, allow Americans to die in Benghazi and ... allowed the rise of ISIS [Islamic State]."
He's got a point.  Every Republican international and intelligence military and policy disaster of the past 30 years involved different people from the list, even if they didn't make the policy.  Some of the real architects have not (yet) denounced Trump, so perhaps we'll hear from them one way or the other in the coming months.

If you're suggesting that Trump will do better, he's already said that he gets his advice from his own Big Brain, so he doesn't really need their help anyway.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on August 11, 2016, 11:06:19 AM
Quote
I'm not sure what the current numbers are on how much we've put up already but the point is we've already built over 600 miles of barrier before Trump said a word on the subject and I don't know how much has been built under Obama but I imagine at least some of it. So how is it crazy or far right to finish what we've already started and Obama has been continuing?

The interesting thing I've seen from many Trump supporters is that they seem to hear what they want from the candidate, rather than what he actually says.

To be fair, I've been the same thing from many Obama supporters, who have been continually surprised by Obama doing what he actually said he would do, rather than what they expected him to do. :)

But the same thing is happening here.  Cherry, are you equating the current fencing along the boarder to "the wall" that Trump has promised to build (at Mexico's expense)?  Have you looked at what Trump is proposing to build?

According to Politifact (http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2016/jul/26/how-trump-plans-build-wall-along-us-mexico-border/):

Quote
Trump has said the wall could cost $8 billion to $12 billion, be made of precast concrete, and rise 35 to 40 feet, or 50 feet, or higher. He’s said the wall doesn’t need to run the nearly 2,000 miles of the border, but half of that because of natural barriers.

35 to 50 feet of precast concrete.  Compare this to the fencing that is currently along the border. (http://content.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1814377,00.html)  Or this piece at Jacumba, CA (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/03/160304-us-mexico-border-fence-wall-photos-immigration/) (which is a vast improvement over the two-foot-high barbed-wire fence I saw there a couple of decades ago).  How much of it looks like a 35 - 50 foot concrete wall?

Trump does not just want to extend the fence.  He wants to build a great wall, a huge wall, made of concrete.  And get Mexico to pay for at least $8 billion of the bill.

It's a pipe-dream.  Never happen.  Even the most disinterested person knows that.  But Trump keeps repeating it.

Why?
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: D.W. on August 11, 2016, 11:45:56 AM
We can totally offset the cost by leasing both sides of the wall for advertising!   ;D
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 11, 2016, 06:48:43 PM
So it's not the purpose of the wall in keeping people out but just the optics of it being a wall instead of a fence or other barrier?

That doesn't make any sense to me from a perspective of logic or being rational but I suppose maybe it does make some sort of sense from an emotional perspective, perhaps. A barrier is a barrier and the point of it is exactly the same.

As for the cost, didn't Obama just blow through almost a trillion dollars on "shovel ready jobs" which never materialized, all of which got added to the national debt and will probably end up costing us at least as much on interest as we try to pay it off over the next thirty years? At least this will provide real shovel ready jobs and at a tiny fraction of the price, all of which can be paid simply by taxing remittances at a modest 5% over an eight year period.

I'm not seeing the big deal in the difference between the wall and a border fence though. So if Trump changed it to a border fence instead of a wall then it would be all good? Somehow I'm doubting it.

That was a good piece in Time showing the new double barrier of a fence and a wall built with pride under Obama. That's as intimidating as anything Trump is proposing, perhaps even more so with that DMZ looking area between the two that looks like it could be mined and covered by machine gun nests spaced to provide intersecting arcs of cover fire.

I just hope Trump's Wall is big enough that you can hike and ride bicycles along the top of it and if they put some sort of shading to cover it for the tourists that would be delightful.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 11, 2016, 09:02:25 PM
Quote
As for the cost, didn't Obama just blow through almost a trillion dollars on "shovel ready jobs" which never materialized, all of which got added to the national debt and will probably end up costing us at least as much on interest as we try to pay it off over the next thirty years? At least this will provide real shovel ready jobs and at a tiny fraction of the price, all of which can be paid simply by taxing remittances at a modest 5% over an eight year period.
I realize that facts aren't all that important to you, but the total portion of the $800B Stimulus allocated for "shovel ready" projects was $150B.  But like I said, facts don't really matter, just like the kind of wall Trump says he will build isn't anything like the kind of wall you imagine is there.  For me, facts *do* matter, which is why I'm so impressed with the way your mind works.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on August 11, 2016, 11:15:04 PM
Quote
To be fair, I've been the same thing from many Obama supporters, who have been continually surprised by Obama doing what he actually said he would do, rather than what they expected him to do.

You mean like stand against same-sex marriage, or close down Guantanamo?  Oops.

To give Bush Junior credit, he did actually say in his election speeches that he was going to restart the Iraq war.   ::)
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 11, 2016, 11:48:31 PM
It doesn't matter what kind of wall or barrier or fence it is. The purpose is still the same. Why is it better to build a fence to keep impoverished and desperate people fleeing violence out but not a wall? That doesn't make any sense. If the fence is better because it's easier to get through then what was the point of building it in the first place? And how many regular people are really hanging out at the border anyway just minding their own business and now they'll see this huge wall and say, wow, that really is an eyesore? That's why it's so bad right, because it looks bad? I doubt that many people, in the grand scheme of things, will even notice it.

And I'll be glad to take your 150 billion dollar number and run with it. That means we can spend that much on the wall and still come out way ahead of what Obama wasted because at least now we'll have something awesome to show for it.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 12, 2016, 11:07:28 AM
It doesn't matter what kind of wall or barrier or fence it is. The purpose is still the same. Why is it better to build a fence to keep impoverished and desperate people fleeing violence out but not a wall? That doesn't make any sense. If the fence is better because it's easier to get through then what was the point of building it in the first place? And how many regular people are really hanging out at the border anyway just minding their own business and now they'll see this huge wall and say, wow, that really is an eyesore? That's why it's so bad right, because it looks bad? I doubt that many people, in the grand scheme of things, will even notice it.

And I'll be glad to take your 150 billion dollar number and run with it. That means we can spend that much on the wall and still come out way ahead of what Obama wasted because at least now we'll have something awesome to show for it.
if I owe  you $10000 and promised to pay you today, but instead offer to give you $300 next week, is it the same?  Trump is spectacular on promises and nowhere to be seen when it's time to pay up.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on August 12, 2016, 03:54:38 PM
So it's not the purpose of the wall in keeping people out but just the optics of it being a wall instead of a fence or other barrier?

That doesn't make any sense to me from a perspective of logic or being rational but I suppose maybe it does make some sort of sense from an emotional perspective, perhaps. A barrier is a barrier and the point of it is exactly the same...

Is your house safe from burglars, cherry?  Is there any way a burglar could get into your house?  Wouldn't your house be safer if you put in $5 million of improvements?  So why don't you?

For the two same reasons, I'd bet, as to why we shouldn't build a 50 foot wall.

1.  No matter how much security you add, someone who is motivated enough can always get past it.  Even if we have a 50 foot concrete wall along the entire length of the Mexican border, illegals would sneak along the coast, or tunnel under the wall, or climb over the wall, or fly over the wall, or just blow a hole in it.  Walls cannot stop everyone.  They can only discourage the less motivated and/or prepared.

Any wall can be breached; any safe can be cracked; any house can be broken into.  Higher security makes it harder, but can never make it impossible.

2.  Spending that much money on security simply isn't worth it.  The law of diminishing returns.  Our security wouldn't be enhanced that much with an $12 billion+ wall, as compared to a fence.  The few percent of those trying to cross that would be deterred by a 50 foot wall compared to a 25 foot fence is not worth the 100x or more cost of the wall.  It may look impressive, but it won't do much more than a fence would.  You would still need border agents to patrol the wall.  You would still need to maintain the wall. 

You can go broke trying to buy security.  You have to balance the cost against the threat.

And the bottom line is that the threat from terrorists and illegals is still relatively miniscule.  Take the number of murders in this country for any recent year.  Subtract the number of murders from illegals and terrorists who snuck across the border.  Now divide it by the original number.  What'd you get?  99 percent?  99.5 percent?  99.9 percent?

$8 billion won't buy diddly-squat.

So, I suppose you'll say, then why have any fences?  Why not just tear down all the fences and let anyone who wants to come in?

Which brings us back to your house analogy.  If you can't afford to spend $5 million dollar improving you house security, or don't think it's worth it, why don't you just disconnect the burglar alarm, take off the front door, open all the windows, and leave your house lights off all the time?  What does it matter--you can't stop anyone from breaking in, can you?

Because these measures do prevent most burglaries.  They prevent the casual burglar from just dropping by when he feels like it.  They make it harder for him to break in the first place, and increase the chances he'll be caught.

If Trump was serious about increasing border security, he'd propose things that would help--increasing border patrols, building more low-cost fencing, going after employers of illegals who provide the main incentive for people to illegally cross the border.  These things would help, at a cost/benefit ratio that would be rational.  These could work.

But a wall?  A pie-in-the-sky solution.  (Do you recall the link from a few months ago that estimated how much concrete this wall would require?  It was something like 40 percent of all the concrete we use for like ten years, IIRC.  Nuts.)

But Trump likes big ideas.  We should ask him for a unicorn to go with it. :)
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 12, 2016, 05:17:44 PM
Well we won't know for sure how effective it is until we try. The reports I see are that the fences are very effective at significantly reducing illegal crossings where they are put up but of course that just redirects traffic to crossing points that are less secure. The solution is obviously just to secure the entire border. And Trump said the wall is going to be awesome and fantastic. To me one obvious thing to do is to run cable in it with high res cameras along the line that anyone anywhere in the world can access and look at anytime they want and submit a report if they see anything suspicious. As they say, if we can send a man to the moon... surely we can do this too, secure the border. It's not really that complicated, all it takes is the one thing we are lacking now in our leadership. Any will to do it.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Pete at Home on August 12, 2016, 05:21:31 PM
Well we won't know for sure how effective it is until we try. The reports I see are that the fences are very effective at significantly reducing illegal crossings where they are put up but of course that just redirects traffic to crossing points that are less secure. The solution is obviously just to secure the entire border. And Trump said the wall is going to be awesome and fantastic. To me one obvious thing to do is to run cable in it with high res cameras along the line that anyone anywhere in the world can access and look at anytime they want and submit a report if they see anything suspicious. As they say, if we can send a man to the moon... surely we can do this too, secure the border. It's not really that complicated, all it takes is the one thing we are lacking now in our leadership. Any will to do it.

Maybe when he said 'get mexico to pay for it,' he meant use prison labor which is mostly mexican illegal alien.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 12, 2016, 08:47:38 PM
Take this as you will, but I think that Trump is not killing the Republican Party, but starting the process to put it back on track where it was through the '80s.  The party has been taken over by radicals since Gingrich, and Trump is the natural culmination of the drive through the right wall and out of the mainstream altogether.  We thought that the Tea Party was nutso (they are), but Trump has exacerbated their bat*censored* extremism beyond even where they would go.  Now the Party has nowhere at all to go except back to the middle.  I expect that in 2020, after having lost all three governing leadership roles, they will nominate someone no more radical than George Bush I.  If they put Cruz up instead, it will take another cycle of the wheel before they get another shot, and then they will perhaps have learned their lesson.  Bottom line, Trump will poll 38% and lose 40 states.  The next Republican candidate will either do just as poorly be continuing his kind of diseased rhetoric, or a moderate Republican will make it a race like we used to have.

You heard it here first.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: D.W. on August 12, 2016, 08:50:51 PM
Yep, I tend to use the 'controlled burn' analogy when I bring up that theory with friends.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 12, 2016, 08:55:26 PM
This almost seems like something out of The Onion:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/king-debt-donald-trump-now-144004540.html?bcmt=1471024394155-e84c0179-e456-48c1-9115-6ae5438a6bfc_00007n000000000000000000000000-d4e19cf4-5adf-4dc7-a1de-8e1fa220e0d8&bcmt_s=u#mediacommentsugc_container

"The U.S. is nearly $20 trillion in debt, a number that has almost doubled under President Barack Obama. If Donald Trump is elected president, the nation's massive pile of IOUs will keep on growing and then some.

Already the self-proclaimed "king of debt" — a declaration the Republican nominee made on CNBC in May — Trump promised Thursday to use the low-interest environment as a means to rebuild the national infrastructure.

"This is a time to borrow and borrow long term," he told CNBC during a discussion on how he would finance the many projects he wants to undertake, such as rebuilding airports and bridges and upgrading the military...

... Trump sees the climate as a ripe time for the U.S. to take advantage of almost-free money. He wants to use it to rebuild American infrastructure, including airports that "are like third-world countries." (The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which runs New York metro-area facilities, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)

"Normally you would say you want to reduce your debt, and I like to reduce debt as much as anybody," he said. "The problem is, you have a military problem, you have an infrastructure problem — a tremendous infrastructure problem — and you have other problems. The asset is your rates are so low."

... "What's going to happen when the rates eventually go up and you can't borrow, you absolutely can't borrow, because it's too expensive?" he said. "It would destroy our balance sheet, totally destroy the balance sheet."

Trump also hit back against an analysis from Moody's Analytics, which said his plans would cause a "lengthy recession," run up $11 trillion in debt and cost 3.5 million jobs.

In addition to taking advantage of the opportune interest rate climate, Trump's economic plan calls for slashing income and business taxes. Moody's economist Mark Zandi, who has supported Hillary Clinton for president, has said her plan would make the economy "stronger" than Trump's proposals.

"It's a ridiculous statement," Trump said. "My plan's going to lead to growth. We're going to have the jobs not her. ... I think they were looking at an old plan."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This seems like a complicated issue with a lot of variables in play that are difficult to factor and perhaps Trump's idea makes some sense especially from the perspective of a real estate developer who uses debt as leverage to make even more money.

But... I'm not a complicated person. My preference would be to not only completely pay off the national debt but then to actually have a national savings account that pays the U.S. taxpayer interest by way of lowering our taxes because some of the money we make off the national savings (and investment) account can be used to offset taxes. It's exactly the opposite of what we have now. Sounds crazy but look at Alaska. This is what they have. They have so much money in the Alaska state permanent dividend fund that they actually pay their taxpayers hundreds to thousands of dollars back every year. Texas also has our Rainy Day Fund. That's the way to run an economy. Spend less than you take in, pay off your debt, and then build up your emergency fund and eventually live on interest. The Mormon Church also does something like this. So I prefer the Dave Ramsey plan over the Trump one.

I will say one good thing about Trump is he's just coming right out and saying it.

Not like the others who promise to tackle it and then just jack it anyway.

At least Trump isn't lying.

And the funny thing is even if he is lying all the would mean is that he promised to raise the debt and then he broke that promise and paid it down instead. There are much worse promises to break and much worse ways to break them.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: D.W. on August 12, 2016, 09:05:33 PM
I'm confused.  Were you correct about Obama, or just saying you had your time table off a couple of years?  :)
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 12, 2016, 09:07:01 PM
If Hillary wins, just the demographics of the amnesty for millions of illegals who will vote Democrat along with their children for most if not all of their lives along with the millions more in illegal and legal immigration with further amnesties down the road, probably every generation, will result in perpetual Democrat control of politics in America for the foreseeable future. I realize I pretty much said the same thing when Obama won his second term and if Hillary wins that will prove I was correct. If any Republican had won instead of Trump and went along with the amnesty like most of them supported it would result in the same thing. Cruz said he wouldn't support amnesty aka a path to citizenship but he lied about supporting the nominee so he may have lied about that too. That means that Trump was and is the last and only hope of saving the Republican party, just based on simple demographic trends.

I guess one good thing is if all this happens we will finally get to see whether the Democrat Party dreams and promises can come true, or if our country will descend into the 2nd and 3rth world hellholes they've made of many of the cities they control. I said the same thing about Obama, that results matter and we will see what the actual results are that come from voting for hope and change, and they are every bit the spectacular failure that I expected. Hillary is Obama's more sinister little mini-me so her results will most certainly be even worse. Maybe not though. Maybe it will be a nice surprise how great she makes America.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 12, 2016, 09:12:30 PM
Oops sorry I reposted that instead of editing but I think I was correct about Obama in every foreseeable circumstance except for Trump coming along.

I don't think there would have been much enthusiasm for the Republicans voting for any of the others knowing that the simple demographics of amnesty means they were digging their own graves as far as political power goes.

I also think Trump is right and that the election will be rigged with massive voter fraud and manipulation. I know that's hard to imagine after watching how on the up and up the Democrat primary was but we'll just have to see. Sadly, even if it does happen that the election is stolen there won't really be anything that can be done about it, just like there wasn't with Bernie and a little bit further back in history when Lyndon Johnson stole Texas.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: D.W. on August 12, 2016, 09:21:04 PM
Here's my prediction then if we're gonna go there.  Trump's minions will be the ones doing the rigging.  They'll do it in favor of Hillary.  I mean, they know he can't win.  They know he doesn't even WANT to win.  So they will attempt to use the inevitable loss to create a scandal to tarnish her entire time in office and lay the ground work for their party to keep up the good fight and better luck next time while they scrounge their rumps off looking for a real candidate who has a prayer.

Am I playing the game right?
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Fenring on August 12, 2016, 09:46:54 PM
Good psy-op scenario D.W. That is, indeed, how the game is played :)

cherry, if that is indeed Trump's economic plan (e.g. stimulus) it furthers the theory that he's a closet Democrat who spoiled the GOP convention. Not that one has to be a Democrat to be in that economic school, but, well, they tend to be.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on August 12, 2016, 11:12:46 PM
Here's my prediction then if we're gonna go there.  Trump's minions will be the ones doing the rigging.  They'll do it in favor of Hillary.  I mean, they know he can't win.  They know he doesn't even WANT to win.  So they will attempt to use the inevitable loss to create a scandal to tarnish her entire time in office and lay the ground work for their party to keep up the good fight and better luck next time while they scrounge their rumps off looking for a real candidate who has a prayer.

Am I playing the game right?

You forget the part where those diabolical Republican Operatives are carrying out all of this fradulent voting in support of a Democratic Candidate in districts that are predominately controlled by the Democratic Party. That takes some political balls of steel.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 13, 2016, 06:28:46 PM
I read an article today that said that one reason Clinton is drawing more potential Republican voters than Trump is drawing Democrats is because her positions are a lot closer to traditional Republican voters than his are. In other words, she's the Republican alternative, and they should stop angsting over how to stop him.

Also, I watched a CNN interview with my favorite Trump spokesbraindead, Katrina (good name for her) Pierson (http://www.rawstory.com/2016/08/internet-mocks-trump-spokespersons-claim-obama-invaded-afghanistan-with-katrinapiersonhistory/). She complained that we had the Iraq war won in 2007 after the surge, but Obama and Clinton blew not only that but followed up disastrously by invading Afghanistan afterwards in 2007.  I'd ask where does he find these people, but the answer is that she was a losing contestant on The Apprentice, so now we know where at least one of the losers went.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on August 13, 2016, 11:13:33 PM
I agree with that because she is the establishment candidate and there is a lot of overlap between the Democrat and Republican establishments. I always figured that there were a few wedge issues that they both like to highlight to make it look like there is a big difference between them while behind the scenes most of them don't care about these issues much if at all and they just work together to keep the money flowing to the big corporations so they can get the kick backs into their own war chests in the form of campaign contributions and other favors.  Bernie was a huge threat to this scheme and Trump still is.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 20, 2016, 07:03:01 AM
My thinking about Trump's campaign has shifted again.  Pete (I think it was Pete) was the first here to suggest that Trump wasn't really running to be President, but to satisfy some other goal.  I've read several articles in the last week suggesting that, and they make a certain kind of sense.  Rather running a campaign in which he will lose, he may be trying to lose by design.  It's becoming increasingly harder to believe that anything he says or does has as its purpose to increase the chances of his winning.

Why would he do that?  Just to bolster his ravenous need for attention isn't good enough, because after the election all that attention goes away.  He *wants* something out of all this that will survive and grow and I think he's going to get it.  What the country gets is not all that interesting to him.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Gaoics79 on August 20, 2016, 09:08:12 AM
Quote
My thinking about Trump's campaign has shifted again.  Pete (I think it was Pete) was the first here to suggest that Trump wasn't really running to be President, but to satisfy some other goal.  I've read several articles in the last week suggesting that, and they make a certain kind of sense.  Rather running a campaign in which he will lose, he may be trying to lose by design.  It's becoming increasingly harder to believe that anything he says or does has as its purpose to increase the chances of his winning.

Why would he do that?  Just to bolster his ravenous need for attention isn't good enough, because after the election all that attention goes away.  He *wants* something out of all this that will survive and grow and I think he's going to get it.  What the country gets is not all that interesting to him.

You're falling into the same trap that the Republican establishment probably did - the one that prevented them from seeing the danger until it was too late. You're assuming that Trump is lying about pretty much everything he says - which is a correct assumption. But where you stumble (and where they did) is in inferring that his lies have a rational purpose beyond feeding his own ego. They kept saying he was going to moderate, that he'd move centre, or back off from some of his nuttier proposals, that he'd stop attacking babies and war veterans. But Trump just kept on being Trump.

Trump is a compulsive liar. Note, there is a distinction between a compulsive liar and a serial liar (eg: Hillary Clinton).

My personal view is that Trump probably started his campaign with some goal of getting publicity for himself, as men like him often do. At some point, he started winning, and then he kept on winning, probably even to his own surprise. At a certain point though, it became serious and he started to believe he really could win. Really scary to imagine even the possibility that someone like him could go all the way.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on August 20, 2016, 12:51:12 PM
My thinking about Trump's campaign has shifted again.  Pete (I think it was Pete) was the first here to suggest that Trump wasn't really running to be President, but to satisfy some other goal.

I think I was the first one to fully outline it on Ornery, although I know there are older accusations that Trump was ringer from the start, most people who held to that view shut-up at some point during the later portion of the primaries and the run-up to the RNC. Some probably even managed to convince themselves otherwise for awhile.

Quote
I've read several articles in the last week suggesting that, and they make a certain kind of sense.  Rather running a campaign in which he will lose, he may be trying to lose by design.  It's becoming increasingly harder to believe that anything he says or does has as its purpose to increase the chances of his winning.

And paradoxically, if more people buy into it, it also becomes possible that his odds of winning will increase. The more convinced people become that Trump doesn't want the job, the more likely it becomes that people will vote for him as a protest vote, much like what went on in Brewster's Millions for the fictional NYC Mayor race.

Quote
Why would he do that?  Just to bolster his ravenous need for attention isn't good enough, because after the election all that attention goes away.  He *wants* something out of all this that will survive and grow and I think he's going to get it.  What the country gets is not all that interesting to him.

The attention does go away, but the name recognition remains, which is why many publicists and PR types will occasionally say "There's no such thing as bad publicity." It's all about spin control.

The other thing you're ignoring is that if Trump loses in November, don't be surprised to see filming for another season of "The Apprentice" or some other (new) reality TV program with Trump as the lead, to start filming by January.

Which isn't to mention the possibility he has a documentary crew following him around currently. Romney did that in 2012, Trump may be taking it to "another level."
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 20, 2016, 05:48:10 PM
Maybe he'll commission a new book, The Art of the Demagogue.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on August 22, 2016, 11:22:28 AM
The latest I heard was that he brought Stephen Bannon on board so that, if he lost the election, he would have a platform to be the voice of the Alt Right.  He could be a political commentator/blowhard for the rest of his life.

What possibly could be better for him? :)
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on August 22, 2016, 11:57:26 AM
My feeling is that Trump persona/ego very much wants to WIN and that this persona has convinced Trump that he wants to be president but at some deeper level doesn’t really want to be.

I think Trump likes being the CEO of Trump and would quickly find the work of being president tedious.
If elected he would probably delegate everything and then get in the way. 

Every now and then you can catch dear in headlights look when it seems he seems realizes that he is in way over his head and that being president isn’t something he really wants.

Trump has become America’s shadow, and such projections on an individual don’t usually end well.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 22, 2016, 09:35:10 PM
In some ways a shadow, but more insidiously in some ways a reflection.  What does it say about us that he can claim he could shoot somebody on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes?  So far saying that doesn't seem to have cost him any.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 23, 2016, 12:39:31 PM
The latest I heard was that he brought Stephen Bannon on board so that, if he lost the election, he would have a platform to be the voice of the Alt Right.  He could be a political commentator/blowhard for the rest of his life.

What possibly could be better for him? :)
Trump TV led by Ailes, featuring Bannon's newshounds from Breitbart with the wisdom and insight of News Manager Pudge Hannity.  FOX News, you're going down! 
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on August 23, 2016, 01:05:03 PM
It’s fascinating… and sad

His campaign strategy isn’t so much about policy but character and appearance and which regards to being a man of character he has clearly demonstrated by his words actions that he has very little of yet it doesn’t matter. It maters when it’s a failure in one of his opponents but that it is also a failure he has demonstrated its ok to over look. WTF

Yesterday’s sound bite that Hillary doesn’t look presidential…. I look presidential. Sets of the debate of if Hillary looks precedential, if it’s a woman thing bla bla bla… but nothing, or very little, on if Trump looks presidential. 

Later he will use his statement that he looks presidential  as evidence that people think he looks presidential.  And it works!!!

My young nephew, right leaning Christian bordering on fundamentalists, is, as are all such “good” Christion’s Republican.  It’s a Pavlov response kind of thing that even if and when Trump spits in the face of every value that this well-meaning young man holds so dear he will still support him and you can’t enter into discussion about it.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: AI Wessex on August 23, 2016, 07:32:37 PM
I will give Trump credit for one thing, that when he says something he says what he means and means what he says, at least when he says it.  Watch out for the wall, I think it's going to fall.  The question is what will those who loved him for the wall say when there is no wall at all.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: rightleft22 on August 24, 2016, 10:53:53 AM
I think most people missed this during Trumps speech at the convention but he implied that he was responsible for NATO new combat terrorism program which has been in the works for quite some time and is constantly undergoing revision, if slowly, as needs arise.

US Immigration policies and vetting are already very “firm” and my bet is that Trump will change very little in those processes but eventually take credit for them.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: Wayward Son on August 24, 2016, 02:59:36 PM
FiveThirtyEight did an interesting analysis, comparing the state polls from the previous election to the current polls for this one. (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-making-more-states-competitive-red-states/)

Result: Trump is making more states competitive.  For Hillary.

Only 12 states are less likely to vote Democrat than they did in 2012, most of them Democratic states, and all but 2 no where near competitive.  28 states (by my count) are significantly more likely to vote Democratic, with Utah leading everyone else in the dust.  Four of them appear competitive.

I guess Mormons really dislike Trump.  :o
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: TheDeamon on August 24, 2016, 04:35:37 PM
I guess Mormons really dislike Trump.  :o

They dislike the Clinton's too. If they were running anyone but Hillary, it would be even more of a runaway race with them.
Title: Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 20, 2017, 09:22:16 PM
http://www.ornery.org/forum/index.php/topic,196.msg7179.html#msg7179

cherrypoptart

Quote
To me one obvious thing to do is to run cable in it with high res cameras along the line that anyone anywhere in the world can access and look at anytime they want and submit a report if they see anything suspicious.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/03/4chans-pol-using-border-webcams-help-report-illegals/

The largely pro-Trump 4Chan internet message board has recently taken it upon themselves to help ICE agents catch and report illegals entering the United States.

The mostly pro-Trump 4Chan political page is using border webcams to help report illegal alien crossings.

    /pol/ discovers that they can use webcams to scan the US-Mexico border for illegal immigrants, sending tips to Border Patrol. pic.twitter.com/EaZ52ClXGO

    — /pol/ News Network (@polNewsNetwork1) March 19, 2017

As reported by /pol/’s News Network Twitter account, they just recently discovered that live streams of the US-Mexico border are available via http://blueservo.com/ . The website has become so popular that it has currently exceeded its bandwith at the time of writing this.