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General Category => General Comments => Topic started by: Greg Davidson on November 09, 2016, 10:01:41 AM

Title: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Greg Davidson on November 09, 2016, 10:01:41 AM
I have to rush now (I'll get the numbers later), but let's baseline the unemployment rate, stock market, annual GDP growth, and budget deficit as of Monday and then predict where we will be in October 2018.

I'd like to hear, particularly from Trump supporters, where you think we will be if our new President-elect is successful by your standards. Feel free to include other measures, such as the number of illegal immigrants in the country, the number of people killed in terrorist attacks on American soil, or any other metrics that you believe would show how President Trump has been successful in the first 21 months in office.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 09, 2016, 10:03:44 AM
You should make a new "time capsule" topic for this.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Grant on November 09, 2016, 10:11:18 AM
I would think that y'all would learn that your predictions at this point,  all of our predictions, are about a worthless as duct tape toilet paper.  There is absolutely no telling what is going to happen, and if you can't wrap your heads around that, then you're going to fall into the same mistakes.  It's time to achieve flow.  Just let it go and wait and watch.   
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Grant on November 09, 2016, 10:20:40 AM

I'd like to hear, particularly from Trump supporters, where you think we will be if our new President-elect is successful by your standards. Feel free to include other measures, such as the number of illegal immigrants in the country, the number of people killed in terrorist attacks on American soil, or any other metrics that you believe would show how President Trump has been successful in the first 21 months in office.

This is just a WAG, but I imagine that Trump supporters will measure the success of the Trump Presidency on the amount of joy and pleasure they derive during said Presidency.  The majority of their pleasure will probably be derived from how upset liberals and democrats become, most importantly the ones on TV and the internet.  In this way, the electing of Trump is the greatest troll move in the history of the United States.  Immigration, the economy, foreign policy, terrorism are all meaningless as long as liberals and the establishment are squealing under a Trump boot.   

Oh yeah, first step will be the dismantling of Obamacare.  Sayonara.  Pray they replace it with something better.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 09, 2016, 10:20:59 AM
I thought, like actual time capsules, it was accepted this was for entertainment rather than education.  :P
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 09, 2016, 10:23:42 AM
Grant, what's a WAG?  An acronym I assume but can't place it.  Maybe just sleep deprivation making me slow.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Grant on November 09, 2016, 10:27:24 AM
Grant, what's a WAG?  An acronym I assume but can't place it.  Maybe just sleep deprivation making me slow.

Wild Ass Guess. 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 10:27:38 AM
Grant, what's a WAG?  An acronym I assume but can't place it.  Maybe just sleep deprivation making me slow.

Wild (Synonym for Donkey) Guess
Also closely related to: SWAG

which would be a
Scientific Wild (Synonym for Donkey) Guess
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 09, 2016, 10:28:46 AM
Thanks, new one on me.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Grant on November 09, 2016, 10:32:43 AM
I thought, like actual time capsules, it was accepted this was for entertainment rather than education.  :P

I dunno.  I have a feeling this is Greg's way of trying to corner Trump supporters three years from now and show them that none of what they wanted occurred or that things got worse.  They won't care as long as they've been able to feast on the tears of Lindsay Lohan, Raven Symone, and millions of college snowflakes huddled in safe spaces. 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: LetterRip on November 09, 2016, 10:41:19 AM
Grant,

that is probably a tiny percentage of the electorate for which that is true.  Most were voting for rational reasons rather than being jerks.  There are a lot of people who really think he is going to do amazing things for the economy and bring back manufacturing jobs.  There are lots who think he will get rid of millions of illegal immigrants so that those jobs are available for Americans.  There are lots who expect he will nominate justices who will overturn RvW.  There are lots who expect he will nominate justices who will staunchly support the 2A.  There are many who believe he will block any further muslim immigration and deport or otherwise detain or harrass those who have already immigrated.

If he fails on those promises (which I expect he will on nearly all of them) they will be bitterly disappointed.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 10:48:07 AM
I think predictions will be hard to make until after the panic settles down now that Trump has won the election. I think some people are currently only starting to freak out as it is.

I think the panic response is going to be worse than most of his presidency will be. Keep in mind, I didn't vote for him, so I'm not a Trump supporter, although I do lean strongly towards Republican in general. Also remember: if you go back and look, my position all along was that he was a terrible candidate, and his being a terrible candidate was (IMO) his most likely path to victory... So, here we are.

So long as "the panic" doesn't wreck the (global) economy by itself before Trump ever does anything, I think 2 years from now may actually surprise most people. Some people will be worse off, but I think most people will be doing better than they are today in almost every meaningful way.

I also think there will be plenty of Democrats and Republicans alike who will absolutely HATE Donald Trump by that point. Which should make things highly amusing.

Of course, this presumes he doesn't try to not be President. Or that he doesn't actually trigger Armageddon, which can't be entirely ruled out. I wasn't worried about Bush(43) doing that, but I know plenty of others were. I do however, have concerns about Trump this time. Although while I think those concerns are way overblown, that they even exist is concerning in its own way.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Grant on November 09, 2016, 11:00:04 AM
LR,

You and I consistently disagree on these subjects because you tend to see all human action as rational in some shape or form, or try to break it down as rational.  I tend to believe that 80 to 90 percent of all human action is irrational, despite perhaps having a rational basis somewhere.  I think this is because you are a highly rational person yourself.

I believe there were several Republican candidates who supported the 2A, promised to nominate pro 2A judges, and would slow down or halt immigration.  The only thing that seemed to really put Trump apart was his trade protectionism.  But Trump supporters followed him not because of his policies, in my opinion, but because of what he stood for.  He was a big middle finger to all American politics, "the establishment", and "the elite".  It was about peasants with pitchforks and torches.  The motivation was emotional, not rational.  Rationally, I still don't believe how anyone could have believed that Trump would win the Presidency, on Nov 8 much less in Oct of 2015.  I doubt the majority of them were motivated by any of the reasons you give, but were primarily motivated due to their dislike of Clinton, their dislike of President Obama, and their dislike of liberal and conservative politics in general.  There may be rational causes behind this motivation, but it is primarily an emotional reaction rather than a rational one. 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 11:00:57 AM
I have to rush now (I'll get the numbers later), but let's baseline the unemployment rate, stock market, annual GDP growth, and budget deficit as of Monday and then predict where we will be in October 2018.

Not even going to guess on the Budget. However, so long as the economy doesn't crash before Trump even enters office, and nothing completely stupid happens on the foreign relations/trade side of things, I think 3%/year GDP growth in the U.S. is going to be an overly cautious estimate.

All that money that corporations have been hording since 2008 is likely to be unleashed once they "get a feel" for what a Donald Trump presidency is going to operate like. In the mean time, the uncertainty in the markets is likely to hammer things pretty hard.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: LetterRip on November 09, 2016, 11:10:10 AM
Quote
I believe there were several Republican candidates who supported the 2A, promised to nominate pro 2A judges, and would slow down or halt immigration.

The votes that got Trump nominated were the 'tear up the unfair trade agreements' - which none of the other candidates proposed - and which lines up quite well with the states he won that normally tend towards Democrats.  Also none of the other Republican candidates really proposed anything on immigration.  He didn't get the 2A votes of religious votes until after he got the nomination and started making promises about judges.

If the other candidates had won, Clinton probably would have had a better chance and might well have won since the other Republican candidates likely wouldn't have got the blue collar manufacturing vote.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 09, 2016, 11:10:45 AM
Quote
He was a big middle finger to all American politics, "the establishment", and "the elite".  It was about peasants with pitchforks and torches.  The motivation was emotional, not rational. 
And they aren't wrong.  "The elites" think even less of them now.  I was expecting the death rattle of the Republican party this season.  Instead we usher in a new age of culture war and hyper-partisanship.  One thing's for sure, rural America will not be underestimated again.  I think people (liberals/Democrats) have a tendency of forgetting that we are small islands of blue in a sea of red geographically.  We live 2-3 years out of 4 in our bubble.  (if not all 4 years)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 09, 2016, 11:38:46 AM
One thing I expect is that inflation will go up, primarily because cheap goods from overseas will be impeded by re-negotiation of trade agreements.

There will be a small boom in manufacturing as the result of this and from relaxation of environmental codes.  This will not result in a dip in unemployment, though, for the reason explained above.  (Although Trump will declare that it did.)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 09, 2016, 11:42:56 AM
1. FOIA requests will have their backlog start to get cleared out as the slow walking of the Obama administration is replaced by a more transparent Trump Presidency eager to expose the embarrassments Obama was trying to hide.

2. Obamacare gets repealed. The system, if there is one, that replaces it won't be much better either and a lot of people will still be hard up to afford health care.

3. Gun sales start to level off or maybe even decrease instead of the massive spike we've seen under Obama.

4. Deportations increase significantly starting with criminal aliens and Trump plays hard ball to make their home countries take them back for instance by restricting visas if the countries continue to refuse. After the criminal aliens are targeted then Trump might go after the illegals who didn't show up for their court dates. There will be the beginnings of a Trump Wall to look at within nine months.

Trump will tax remittances to pay for the wall. A modest 5% tax would be plenty enough to take care of it over four to eight years. If the peso continues to stay low against the dollar the people receiving the remittances in Mexico will actually get more money than they did under Obama because the exchange rate favors them, at least until the worker sending the money gets deported. Hopefully the guest worker program can be expanded to cover most of these workers so they can work here legally but get a background check to evaluate if they are dangerous or not and they will of course be asked to leave if they can't find legal work. They won't be entitled to any benefits and if pregnant they will have to return to their home country to have their child.

Trump may work on doing something about birthright citizenship like trying to get a Supreme Court decision on it or using the bully pulpit to ask for a Constitutional Amendment though I doubt an Amendment would pass, but at least going through the process and failing would mean that as a country we have officially given due thought to the matter and decided to allow birthright citizenship to stand.

5. This one may be wishful thinking but there is a chance that perhaps the Fed will get audited, certainly a greater chance under Trump than there would have been under Clinton. I expect the Fed may raise interest rates before Trump takes office to screw Trump over on the economy as an act of last defiance.

6. An agreement is reached with Russia allowing Assad to stay in power. The rebels in Syria are betrayed by America the way Bush betrayed the Kurds but that's not so bad this time since the rebels are in cahoots with ISIS and al Qaeda anyway. ISIS in Syria is all but gone within a year, maybe two, and ISIS loses in Iraq as well but to fair to Obama that's already in progress and well under way.

7. Muslim immigration to America is limited but as Syria regains some semblance of normalcy there are fewer Muslim refugees who need to leave anyway and America helps the ones from there and other Muslim countries resettle in safe zones in Muslim countries which helps more refugees at less cost and poses no danger at all to any Americans.

8. The national debt explodes and Trump keeps pace with the levels of spending Obama enjoyed but Trump has more concrete things to show for it, literally, as he actually does make good on his promise to improve America's infrastructure.

9. We see something of a "peace dividend" as Trump makes NATO and our Asian allies pay more of our military costs but those savings are spent on the military. We'll probably actually spend a lot more on the military but Trump will make our allies bear more of those costs or just pull out some of our military defending them and save money that way.

10. I'm not going to make a prediction on the economy. It would be nice if his policies work and we really do experience 3-4% growth rates but that's probably overly optimistic.

11. One area where I disagree with Trump is on pollution controls and I fear he will gut some of Obama's efforts working with the EPA to limit pollution though I also disagree with Obama targeting carbon emissions and believe we should just concentrate on the hard stuff like mercury, dioxins, sulfur and those types of pollutants. Most likely reducing those pollutants would also reduce carbon emissions anyway but going after carbon while not targeting the others is just ridiculous. Overall though Trump is expected to favor business over the environment and I just wish it weren't so. I completely disagree with businesses externalizing the costs of pollution. Of course the acceptable levels of pollution allowed are always much higher than what is safe and are based on what is cost effective for profitability instead taking into account the people who will suffer from asthma, cancer, and other ailments.

Many of these are just Trump making good on his promises. They have observable metrics and we'll be able to tell for certain if they were met or not. As I said with Obama, results matter.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 09, 2016, 11:46:13 AM
Can no longer deny the Paradigm shift in the way we communicate with each other (though we don’t yet understand it) and what is considered truth – media no longer reliable part of the democratic process…  We distrust the media except for the social media we trust….

Right to privacy is gone, hacking is ok… Character does not matter… The ends justify the means.
“Saying it Like it is” means it must be the truth becomes the new politically correctness

Trumps base turns on him when he can't deliver jobs resulting in an increase in violence in America
Government becomes really big and America falls further into debt
Clean energy momentum stalls leaving America behind the rest of the world
The rich become richer.

End of Globalization and return to Nationalism leading to more conflicts (trend trump represents)
A loss of America influence and respect
The next generation Isis becomes stronger and even more horrendous
Russia re-establish control of Eastern Europe – Nato loses Turkey – possible end of nato and traditional alliances

The end of Family values politics (wishful thinking)
The Evangelical’s conservatives have shown themselves as being self-serving hypocrites not that that will change anything however the label Christian is a joke.

Americans will look back on this moment with shame.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: scifibum on November 09, 2016, 12:26:41 PM
Accelerating growth in national deficit. 

That's about all I feel confident about.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: LetterRip on November 09, 2016, 12:41:45 PM
These are my concerns, not necessarily what I expect to come to pass (though many of them I do expect)

1) TPP will be rejected, China will get RCEP passed - this will dramatically diminish US trade status and dramatically enhance China's trading status and exports, US trading status will be reduced, and likely lose a lot of relevancy.

2) US will lose fiat currency status - it will be replaced with either a basket of currency or possibly 1-3 currencies (Chinese, Russian, and Euro).

3) There will be a modest uptick in deportations - but it will have zero impact since there will be even less interest in going after employers, and thus there will be a net loss of jobs to illegal immigrants

4) Manufacturing will further decline due to continuing automation the number of jobs 'returned' to the US via trade agreements will be token and ultimately meaningless in the tide of jobs eliminated due to robotics and AI

5) There is a possibility of major creative and intellectual industries (software, entertainment, portable electronics design, etc.) that are the current backbone of the US economy will begin to leave the US, the people who provide the talent to these industries are overwhelmingly liberal on social policy and mostly liberal on economic policy - the would be readily welcomed into other countries and many now feel like strangers in their own country.

6) Massive uptick in military spending - deficit fueled.  Quite probably military adventurism in the middle east - likely Iran.  Maybe a 1% chance of the use of nuclear weapons.

7) Greatly increased terrorist attacks on the US.

8 | Massive tax cuts for the wealthy - probably an inheritance tax exemption.

9) US military hardware sales will collapse - countries will go for cheaper more reliable lower maintenance systems - exports were based on quid pro quo - we provide protection with the understanding that they buy mostly US hardware.  With that off the table, expect most US military hardware sales to go to zip.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 09, 2016, 01:36:26 PM
LR, your list, if those things come to pass, will hurt everyone in this country, but will hurt Trump's core demographic first and hardest.  I know why I voted against him, but I can't figure out why they voted for him.  I'm not sure that many of them did.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 01:41:29 PM
LR, your list, if those things come to pass, will hurt everyone in this country, but will hurt Trump's core demographic first and hardest.  I know why I voted against him, but I can't figure out why they voted for him.  I'm not sure that many of them did.

they were chiefly:
1) Voting against Hillary
2) Voting against "teh establishment"
3) Voting their anger against the current state of things in general.

But I'm sure a fair number of them were also voting single/multiple issues as well.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: JoshCrow on November 09, 2016, 01:45:18 PM
I'll predict we will have seen a recession of some kind, and I'm going to copyright #Trumpcession even though I don't necessarily think it will be Trump's fault. That's all I got.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 01:51:54 PM
I'll predict we will have seen a recession of some kind, and I'm going to copyright #Trumpcession even though I don't necessarily think it will be Trump's fault. That's all I got.

Provided Trump doesn't walk us out of trade agreements that we're benefiting from(and gain nothing from leaving), I think it's very possible that we're about to see some rapid economic growth. There's a reason I said there's a good chance that 3% annual growth may be overly conservative.

I think you'll find a lot of the underlying "economic weakness" that we've been experiencing for the past 8 years was because many corporations were afraid of outlaying significant amounts of cash to do something only for the Obama admin to turn around and do something to turn the entire project into a boondoggle for one reason or another, be it class warfare, environmental concerns, or some other favored Democratic platform plank item.

Trump's not likely to raise any such concerns on those fronts, once they actually figure out what Trump's actual governing policies and practices are. The big wild card in all this of course, is what Trump does in regards to foreign trade. Until they figure that part out, they're going to hold off even above and beyond what they had been doing.

The flip-side to all of that is: There will eventually be a "Trumpcession" as in keeping with his real-estate roots, that is the problem of overbuilding, and too much market exuberance,  it will eventually run itself out. But will likely take years to run its course.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: LetterRip on November 09, 2016, 01:56:30 PM
LR, your list, if those things come to pass, will hurt everyone in this country, but will hurt Trump's core demographic first and hardest.  I know why I voted against him, but I can't figure out why they voted for him.  I'm not sure that many of them did.

About 2/3 were single issue voters - 2A folks who wanted Supreme Court nominees that were 2A friendly; evangelicals who wanted RvW overturned; and blue collar workers who wanted jobs (and lacked the sophistication to understand that there isn't any path that can bring good paying factory jobs back); The remaining 1/3 were pure partisans and anti-Hillary - people who perceive Hillary as the anti-Christ (or not far from it).

Many lacked the sophistication (or often simply willfully blind) to for-see possible downsides, they only saw their hoped for upside.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: JoshCrow on November 09, 2016, 02:02:22 PM

Provided Trump doesn't walk us out of trade agreements that we're benefiting from(and gain nothing from leaving), I think it's very possible that we're about to see some rapid economic growth. There's a reason I said there's a good chance that 3% annual growth may be overly conservative.

I think you'll find a lot of the underlying "economic weakness" that we've been experiencing for the past 8 years was because many corporations were afraid of outlaying significant amounts of cash to do something only for the Obama admin to turn around and do something to turn the entire project into a boondoggle for one reason or another, be it class warfare, environmental concerns, or some other favored Democratic platform plank item.

Actually I think it will largely be a combination of two factors (neither of which I blame Trump for): 1) the declining ability to "innovate" (not for lack of trying, but rather facing diminishing returns of scientific inquiry) in an economy that has largely become dependent on innovation-driven growth during an unusual time when such growth was common. 2) Banks have learned nothing and will eat themselves again, and this time there will be no bailout. A wildcard would also be a major climate event.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: LetterRip on November 09, 2016, 02:09:03 PM
I think you'll find a lot of the underlying "economic weakness" that we've been experiencing for the past 8 years was because many corporations were afraid of outlaying significant amounts of cash to do something only for the Obama admin to turn around and do something to turn the entire project into a boondoggle for one reason or another, be it class warfare, environmental concerns, or some other favored Democratic platform plank item.

I guess I don't see the reasoning behind your supposition.  Corporations do capital expenditure timing, and they generally have to project strong consumer demand before doing outlays.  Basically they have to see a strong economy before they are willing to invest to serve demand of that strong economy.  Also most corporations have capacity well beyond current demand, so I guess I don't see which corporations might want or need to do capital expenditures and are somehow 'holding back' because of Obama.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 02:15:10 PM
Well, we'll find out in the next year. If the economy goes from "0 to 60" within months of Trump taking office, we know they were likely "holding back" (Although the Dems will claim other reasons, and credit the growth to Obama, naturally)

If the economy just keeps plodding along, we'll have our answer going the other way. If it nose-dives into the toilet, we have yet another one.

Edit to add: We could hope that Trump potentially does what JFK was alleged to have done upon entering office and pursues a comparable study "of ways to grow the economy" with a comparable answer as alleged by the tin foil hat crowd. If so, we may be seeing a lot of money going into two things:

1) Infrastructure reinvestment
2) Manned Space Exploration, with particular emphasis on space colonization.

Trump can appreciate the value of long-duration investments, it's a large part of his empire. Don't be surprised if he goes for some high cost/high risk options with potential pay-outs that may take decades to occur. Also pushing a hard core public/private space venture is one hell of a way to keep much of the US technology sector from leaving the country... And trigger further innovations and improvements in our daily lives if past performance is any indication.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 09, 2016, 02:20:59 PM
Trump might also lower taxes on corporations that repatriate their money from abroad. Better to have them pay lower taxes on it than none at all.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 02:23:11 PM
Trump might also lower taxes on corporations that repatriate their money from abroad. Better to have them pay lower taxes on it than none at all.

This, paired with the addition I added in an edit above yours, are some big things that could change dynamics a little bit. Trump isn't beholden to social programs, and I don't think he cares about balanced budgets, and he's obviously unconcerned about running a deficit(see Trump bankruptcies),  we can hope he goes for hard core space sciences.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 09, 2016, 02:34:35 PM
If Trump were to push aggressive colonization efforts of Mars &/or the moon, I think right this moment he would get a lot of volunteers and do much to improve his party's demographics for the next election.  :)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 09, 2016, 06:29:40 PM
Although it's not a prediction, it is something to consider when making them: Trump surrogate says "we're keeping a list" of those who didn't support Trump. (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/omarosa-list-donald-trump/index.html)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 09, 2016, 06:48:31 PM
Although it's not a prediction, it is something to consider when making them: Trump surrogate says "we're keeping a list" of those who didn't support Trump. (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/omarosa-list-donald-trump/index.html)

Depending on larger context, it could be good or bad. Having the list, in and of itself, is not bad. It's the intentions as to what they're going to do with the list that might be. The problem is that the expression itself has been poisoned by well, people with rather poisonous intentions of their own building such lists.

As that one Reagan attribution goes. "Trust but verify." Anybody that has been overtly hostile to me in the past would sure as hell be going on a "trust, but verify" list for some time, and it's going to take awhile before I take any advice or information they give me at face value. Anybody who does differently is naive, and probably will get burned. Just because a person exists on a (mental) list of people not to trust either implicitly or explicitly doesn't mean I'm going to try to have "bad things" happen to them.

It just means I may not be inclined to do much to help them, unless it benefits me in some way to do so.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Greg Davidson on November 09, 2016, 08:19:19 PM
I can hope for all the positives here, including many that cherry mentioned, and 3%-4% growth sounds great. The ability to increase the deficit with higher government spending can get that much growth or more, as it did with Reagan.  But I suspect that the deficit will increase dramatically based primarily on tax cuts on the 1%.

Tariffs will increase those Walmart prices, but also help domestic manufacturing a bit (and/or increase imports from non-Chinese countries unless we put a tariff on everything - and I anticipate there will be intrusive new government regulation determining exactly which imported content is Chinese, and do things made in China and then shipped to us with a different label from Vietnam actually count as Chinese). Rising inflation and pressure on entitlements will counter some of the deficit pressure, at a cost of having people on social security and other forms of government assistance be more stressed.

I expect that there will be tangible, actual evidence of the crimes that Hillary Clinton was accused of but never proven, but that evidence will about Donald Trump and members of his Administration.  I believe that President Trump will unintentionally reveal classified information (and significant information, not something like a Snowden news article). I believe that there will be a number of financial/graft indictments/convictions similar to under Reagan (or US Grant if you want to go that far back). And I believe that no one who expressed concern about Hillary Clinton with regard to classified information or corruption will spend 1/100th the amount of time an energy on those topics when they occur in a Trump Administration. But at this point, it doesn't matter - the positions were just tactics, and they worked.  My worries start at bigger risks than debating points.  The biggest risk, and I believe that this is a very small but finite possibility, is that President Trump loses control for about 30 minutes during a tense crisis and 100 million people are killed in a nuclear exchange.  Very unlikely, but the impact is very high. 

The second major risk is the effect on the world climate regime when the US pulls out. More heat means a more rapid transition faster, which leads to more conflict around the world.

The third major risk is a major economic crisis like 2008; not only will a Trump Administration not have a sense of how to handle it, but we still haven't fully recovered from the last one.  And in the aftermath of an economic slowdown, to deflect blame from the Trump Administration, I believe there is a strong risk that Trump will find some other target to demonize (he really was doing a protocols of the elders of zion thing with the last set of his ads).

Oddly enough, many of what people would consider to be my personal financial interests will be helped by a Trump election.  I'll probably save $20,000 per year in taxes, and after 1 day of Trump the stock price for the aerospace company I work for has gone up by $20.

Deficit spending will go up to just shy of $1T per year (fraudulently justified because of the "Obama deficits" that Obama inherited from Bush), and with a limited fraction of that being additional government spending
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 10, 2016, 11:03:05 AM
The stock market posted a huge gain yesterday and today looks like it's on its way to closing at a record high.  This is likely a reflection that Trump has promised to fulfill the Republican agenda of rolling back laws and regulations governing how big business operates and getting rid of consumer protections.  One wonders why Hillary was the one seen as too cozy with Wall Street...
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 10, 2016, 11:25:56 AM
Although it's not a prediction, it is something to consider when making them: Trump surrogate says "we're keeping a list" of those who didn't support Trump. (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/omarosa-list-donald-trump/index.html)

Depending on larger context, it could be good or bad. Having the list, in and of itself, is not bad. It's the intentions as to what they're going to do with the list that might be. The problem is that the expression itself has been poisoned by well, people with rather poisonous intentions of their own building such lists.

As that one Reagan attribution goes. "Trust but verify." Anybody that has been overtly hostile to me in the past would sure as hell be going on a "trust, but verify" list for some time, and it's going to take awhile before I take any advice or information they give me at face value. Anybody who does differently is naive, and probably will get burned. Just because a person exists on a (mental) list of people not to trust either implicitly or explicitly doesn't mean I'm going to try to have "bad things" happen to them.

It just means I may not be inclined to do much to help them, unless it benefits me in some way to do so.

And this would be what a mature, sober, careful and thoughtful person, who tries not to hold grudges, would probably do with such a list.

Has Donald Trump done anything that might indicate that he is not such a person? ;) :(
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 10, 2016, 12:03:59 PM
And this would be what a mature, sober, careful and thoughtful person, who tries not to hold grudges, would probably do with such a list.

Has Donald Trump done anything that might indicate that he is not such a person? ;) :(

Public or private persona? From what I've been hearing/seeing about Trump over the years, I'm given the impression they're often very different things on most fronts. He has a lot in common with P.T. Barnum in many respects, which in some ways, makes having him as President rather... Disconcerting.

However, those same traits tends to mean he's not going to pass up an opportunity that comes his way. He may continue to hold and carry the grudge, but if the person whom he's said grudge comes to him with a decent offer, he'll likely consider it rather than reject it outright, and if it passes muster, he'll accept it. Business is business, and a dollar is a dollar, regardless of whose hands it passed through to get to you. Trump seems to understand that, he's not going to miss any chance he can reasonably take advantage of, and a lot of times, that means demonstrating a whole hell of a lot of "showmanship."

Now, he's no longer constrained by the resources of his Real-Estate/Business Empire. He has the full faith and credit of the United States Government backing him, he just has to get Congress to fund whatever he wants to try to do...
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 10, 2016, 02:38:28 PM
Quote
However, those same traits tends to mean he's not going to pass up an opportunity that comes his way. He may continue to hold and carry the grudge, but if the person whom he's said grudge comes to him with a decent offer, he'll likely consider it rather than reject it outright, and if it passes muster, he'll accept it. Business is business, and a dollar is a dollar, regardless of whose hands it passed through to get to you. Trump seems to understand that, he's not going to miss any chance he can reasonably take advantage of, and a lot of times, that means demonstrating a whole hell of a lot of "showmanship."

So if a good deal comes along, he won't pass it up just because the guy's on his list.  I would call that cold comfort for anyone on his list. :)

Because if they don't have a good deal for him, then what?

I just think back of the Donald's little feud with Rosie O'Donnell.  You know, the "fat pig."

And I've heard that Bill Maher, the comedian, said Donald was the son of an orangutan.   So Donald sued him.

Sure, he'd probably work with them if they could make him some money.  But since they didn't, it didn't stop him from going after them, and trying to hurt them rather than just letting it go.

So, even though his public vs private personas may be different, I still wouldn't want to be on his list.  Because his actions speak louder than either persona (if that's at all possible  :-\ ).
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 10, 2016, 03:16:27 PM
Al Wessex: "One wonders why Hillary was the one seen as too cozy with Wall Street..."

I heard it was because of all the money Wall Street paid out in legal political bribes, Hillary got 90% of it and Trump got only 10%. My figures could be way off though but that's kind of what's going around.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 10, 2016, 03:29:10 PM
Another thing--not a prediction, just a reporting--apparently Trump's transition team is considering Wisconsin Sheriff David Clarke and Joe Arpaio as the head of Homeland Security. (http://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/trump-transition-team-floats-extremist-sheriffs-joe-arpaio-and-david-clarke-for-homeland-security/)  :o

Read the link to find out about these bozos if you aren't familiar with them already.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 10, 2016, 03:38:47 PM
Arpaio is probably the best person for the job. None of the people Obama appointed to that position even wanted to secure the border. Of course the border will impossible to secure if the person in charge of securing it along with their boss doesn't want it secured in the first place. So the first most important step is to put someone in the position who actually wants to get the job done. He would also make a good head of ICE.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 10, 2016, 03:47:40 PM
This is what you consider "the best person for the job?"

Quote
Arpaio brags about running a “concentration camp” for his detainees and has a record of withholding basic medical care from prisoners and flouting sanitary standards. His office has reportedly ignored over 400 sex-crime cases, targeted Latino residents and neighborhoods, stalked Latina women and retaliated against those who criticized Arpaio.

In one case, members of Arpaio’s department staged a hoax assassination attempt against the sheriff to enhance his popularity, framing an innocent man in the process. Arpaio hired people with records of domestic violence and child sex crimes to work in his armed “posse” guarding schools in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre.

The sheriff also tapped birther conspiracy theorists to form a “cold case posse” to investigate the truth behind President Obama’s birth certificate, and unsurprisingly concluded that it was a fake.

Hell, why not tap David Duke for the job?  I'm sure he'll "get the job done," too.  ::)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 10, 2016, 04:00:06 PM
It's hard to believe most of the things liberals write about their enemy conservatives nowadays. One thing we do know is that big money influenced his election with radical leftist George Soros spending millions to successfully target Arpaio. It's only fitting that his devious schemes should completely backfire and result in Arpaio getting a massive promotion. Maybe he can finish what he started with Obama's birth certificate. I expect it's legit and that's what he'll find but as the old saying goes, "you don't always get what you expect but you do always get what you inspect". We also know that those against him don't even want immigration law enforced. That is just unacceptable and reduces their credibility to zero.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 10, 2016, 04:11:13 PM
Al Wessex: "One wonders why Hillary was the one seen as too cozy with Wall Street..."

I heard it was because of all the money Wall Street paid out in legal political bribes, Hillary got 90% of it and Trump got only 10%. My figures could be way off though but that's kind of what's going around.
Cherry, stop for a second and think.  Which of Clinton or Trump would be more likely to roll back regulations that those companies have to obey?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 10, 2016, 04:19:12 PM
Quote
Maybe he can finish what he started with Obama's birth certificate. I expect it's legit and that's what he'll find but as the old saying goes, "you don't always get what you expect but you do always get what you inspect".

Read the excerpt again, cherry.  He won't find that it's legit; he already found that it's a fake.

Amazing that he even supports a President that is covering up for Obama. :)

And most of the stuff quoted isn't from any leftist conspiracy.  It's from court cases, reporting from respectable journalists, or just plain his own words.  Don't try to hide the truth from yourself behind some imagined left-wing conspiracy.  This guy is a racist nut job.

And Trump is considering him for head of Homeland Security.  :o

Is this what we can expect for a Trump cabinet?  :'(
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 10, 2016, 04:57:16 PM
"Which of Clinton or Trump would be more likely to roll back regulations that those companies have to obey?"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/victorious-donald-trump-is-the-devil-wall-street-doesn-t-know

"Trump said in August he’d issue a temporary moratorium on new regulations. (Would such a move halt rules on bank capital that haven’t taken effect?) He’s said he’ll repeal Dodd-Frank. (Does he plan to swap it for new regulations to keep banks from sliding into the Wild West?) He’s also said he’ll bring back the Glass-Steagall Act’s wall between commercial and investment banking. (Isn’t that a new regulation?)"

I agree with bringing back Glass-Steagall. If that's all Trump ever does it would be a huge improvement.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 10, 2016, 04:59:46 PM
I'd personally love to see something done about "too big to fail" but we shall see.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 10, 2016, 05:11:01 PM
Trump and his supporters are also racist nut jobs so like I said it's hard to take these accusations seriously. Enforcing immigration law is in itself a racist act anyway so anyone who tries to do it is by definition going to have to be a racist. As far as "credible" journalists go I'm not buying that either. Probably the journalists put on the highest pedestal as far as credibility goes are those at NPR. I listen to them all the time and I notice that they try to put up a pretty good front but it's still just a front nonetheless.

http://www.alternet.org/story/155384/10_worst_things_arizona's_racist_sheriff_joe_arpaio_has_done

I looked up some of Arpaio's troubling behaviors and while they aren't good and it would be great if he could be nicer to people this is what it looks like when an area is under the gun because of illegal immigration. It's not pretty, but they are literally being overrun down there. Hopefully after the wall goes up and the border is secured when there aren't so many illegals we can treat the few who do manage to get across much more politely and we can also treat our own American citizens of Hispanic descent with the dignity they deserve.  It's just a very sad situation, like when you have Muslim terrorists infiltrated amongst good hearted law abiding Muslims and you can't tell which is which so end up being suspicious of them all. Once we finally get the situation back under control maybe we can go back to being a civilized country instead of a paranoid one where no one can trust anyone else because a lawless President has us all living in anarchy.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 10, 2016, 05:56:25 PM
Quote
It's just a very sad situation, like when you have Muslim terrorists infiltrated amongst good hearted law abiding Muslims and you can't tell which is which so end up being suspicious of them all.
I feel that way about redneck yahoos who wear their pistols so that everybody can see them.  Many of them are ass-holes waiting for a chance to shoot somebody, but I suppose some of them are good people, too.  If my memory is working, we haven't had a mass shooting in this country committed by completely non-citizens in quite a while.  According to this site (http://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/mass-shooting?page=1) there were about 40 or so shootings involving multiple victims in the last 30 days.  It's too tedious to look up the details for each one, but since I didn't hear about any of them on major news outlets (including FOX) I would guess that all or nearly all were committed by US citizens, and none by Muslims.  Feel free to dig into them and prove me wrong if you want.

Clean your own house.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: DJQuag on November 10, 2016, 06:03:12 PM
Cherry, all due respect, but *censored* off.

I lived in Arizona. The Mexicans around here worked harder then any white people I knew.

As for Arpaio, he ran and won the past two times based on racism. But his guards beat a retarded man to death whilst he was restrained. He arrested people who ran negative articles about him. He cost taxpayers at minimum 100 million dollars in lawsuits. (For a STATE government.)

The guy was a douchebag. Don't demean yourself by defending him.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 10, 2016, 07:06:57 PM
There are also Americans murdered, raped and murdered, people probably including Americans kidnapped and held in sex slavery, and victims of other heinous crimes because of politicians and law enforcement officials, for instance those in San Francisco, who ignore our immigration laws and in at least one San Francisco example got a beautiful and innocent American woman shot in the back and killed for no reason. Nobody seems to have a problem defending sanctuary cities and politicians who ignore the laws even though they enable many of these criminals including thousands of MS-13 gang members. Obama was responsible for releasing thousands of criminal illegals back into the American population even though there were rapists and murderers among them. The violent crimes they committed are far worse than anything that can be pinned on Arpaio.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ice-releases-19723-criminal-illegals-208-convicted-of-murder-900-of-sex-crimes/article/2589785

"The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency in 2015 decided not to deport but release 19,723 criminal illegal immigrants, including 208 convicted of murder, over 900 convicted of sex crimes and 12,307 of drunk driving, according to new government numbers.

Overall, those released into virtually every state and territory of America had a total of 64,197 convictions among them, for an average of 3.25 convictions each, according to an analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies. ICE also said that the group were convicted of 8,234 violent crimes."

"When ICE releases criminal aliens instead of deporting them, the chances are high that the aliens will re-offend. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, approximately 71 percent of violent offenders, 77 percent of drug offenders, and 82 percent of property offenders will be arrested for a new crime within five years of release from jail or prison. Drunk drivers are especially prone to offend repeatedly. According to an FBI statistic cited by Mothers Against Drunk Driving, the average drunk driver has driven drunk 80 times before ever being arrested."


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's good to worry about the victims of Arpaio but I think there needs to be an equal concern about the victims of the people he has to deal with. He's in a bad situation and surely there are mistakes that have been made. If he's made some bad ones then he should answer for them. I will say though that he is dealing not just with hard working illegals but also straight up violent cutthroats and rapists as well and it can't be an easy job. I would like to see if the person who replaces him can do a better job, not just in treating the illegals more humanely but also in helping to minimize crimes against innocent Americans and even non-violent illegals who are often the targets of the violent ones. If Joe's replacement does a great job at treating illegals well but that results in more innocent Americans becoming victims is that really an improvement to be proud of?

Now I'll admit I don't know that much about him and maybe it's true that I shouldn't be defending him and wouldn't be if I knew more, but one thing I do know from most of these Black Lives Matter stories is that the pertinent facts are often omitted or downplayed by the lying media as well as supposed witnesses in order to purposefully make law enforcement look bad. I'm willing to give law enforcement the benefit of the doubt. They are the guys and women putting their lives on the line to protect the rest of us. We have no idea what it's really like out there on the street with them. In one of the stories in a link I gave there were taken to task for going to the house next to the one they were raiding and detaining two innocent people for several hours but the house that they actually did raid was legitimately a massive criminal enterprise. The police playing it safe is not something I hold against them.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 10, 2016, 07:16:51 PM
Apparently he spoke at the RNC to stump for Trump.

I have to believe they knew as much as there is to know about the guy and they didn't have a problem with him.

There are many Hispanics in the RNC and they also didn't seem to have a problem.

At least now that he's gone we can expect to see a vast improvement in conditions there under the guy George Soros replaced him with. We should definitely keep up with the situation because if the conditions don't improve dramatically and relatively quickly that could mean the problems are institutional and with funding instead of just being the fault of one guy.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: DonaldD on November 10, 2016, 08:03:40 PM
Quote
The remaining 1/3 were pure partisans and anti-Hillary - people who perceive Hillary as the anti-Christ (or not far from it).
See, you missed a perfectly good opportunity to go in another direction, say: "people who perceive Hillary as the anti-Christ (or at least his former secretary of state)".
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 11, 2016, 11:02:40 AM
Quote
Hopefully after the wall goes up and the border is secured when there aren't so many illegals we can treat the few who do manage to get across much more politely and we can also treat our own American citizens of Hispanic descent with the dignity they deserve.  It's just a very sad situation, like when you have Muslim terrorists infiltrated amongst good hearted law abiding Muslims and you can't tell which is which so end up being suspicious of them all. Once we finally get the situation back under control maybe we can go back to being a civilized country instead of a paranoid one where no one can trust anyone else because a lawless President has us all living in anarchy.

Well, I hope you can show us the way on how to react to these threats in a lawful and just manner.  Because once we've successfully taken care of these threats from minorities, you know we will be going after the threats from the majority population, since, after all, there is more killing done by them than by the minorities.  And you can be sure every perfected technique will be used to address this greater threat.  Maybe not in this Administration, or the next, but soon.

Who knows?  Maybe Apario will still be in charge when that occurs.  Now isn't that a comforting thought. ;)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 11, 2016, 12:50:56 PM
Who knows?  Maybe Apario will still be in charge when that occurs.  Now isn't that a comforting thought. ;)

...Or Trump will be saying "You're fired!" to him within his first year of office. Trump broke "all kinds of rules" (of politics) this election cycle. Don't be surprised if he likewise "breaks all kinds of rules" as to how a President manages his cabinet staff.

The alt-right helped get him in office, they DO have some ideas which have merit. From the Trump school of management, it's one of those "Why not give them a chance?" decisions. They'll get their moment to prove or disprove their arguments. If it works, great. If it starts to train-wreck, well, they're out the door. It isn't like Trump is going defend every cabinet secretary he nominates to the hilt like Obama did for much of his appointed staff. Pretty good odds that if a high-level staffer screws up under Trump, they're going to be gone.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 11, 2016, 01:27:24 PM
I think the "new thing" in the coming months will be:
#sausage
and
#makingsausage

You know, that old adage about sausage factories, and how much they resemble politics. Methinks Trump is going bring a nice big spotlight upon the entire process and revel in it.

Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 11, 2016, 05:35:52 PM
Who knows?  Maybe Apario will still be in charge when that occurs.  Now isn't that a comforting thought. ;)

...Or Trump will be saying "You're fired!" to him within his first year of office. Trump broke "all kinds of rules" (of politics) this election cycle. Don't be surprised if he likewise "breaks all kinds of rules" as to how a President manages his cabinet staff.

The alt-right helped get him in office, they DO have some ideas which have merit. From the Trump school of management, it's one of those "Why not give them a chance?" decisions. They'll get their moment to prove or disprove their arguments. If it works, great. If it starts to train-wreck, well, they're out the door. It isn't like Trump is going defend every cabinet secretary he nominates to the hilt like Obama did for much of his appointed staff. Pretty good odds that if a high-level staffer screws up under Trump, they're going to be gone.

Actually, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised at anything.  Trump is a tabula rasa as far as which policies he will enact and which he won't.  Which is why making predictions about what he will do is so hard.  I don't think even he has any idea just yet. :)

But, of course, you should amend your post with "I hope."  Because even you have no idea what he's going to do.  He may leave all decisions to his staff, and just ignore any criticisms of them, even more so than Obama.  After all, he's the boss, right?  He doesn't have to listen to anyone.  And running a country is just like running a business, right?

And for giving the Alt-Right a "chance:"  they are some of his most enthusiastic of his base.  What makes you think he would toss them out the door?  I mean, who would be cheering him in the rallies if they left?  What would talk about in his speeches if he dropped all the Alt-Right catch-phrases?  His whole "ideology" is Alt-Right ideas.  He may be wedded too closely to them to throw them out.

Which means you will be wedded to them, too, through him. ;)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 11, 2016, 08:39:56 PM
Oh he shows the alt-Right out the door. They may have been his way in, but now that he's there, it time to get to work.

But yeah, until we get into February, just about everything is going to be pure speculation for anyone not in Trump's inner circle.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Ronald Lambert on November 11, 2016, 09:56:10 PM
Now we are beginning to hear Trump walking back some of his more extreme statements, even suggesting he might preserve some parts of Obamacare. I said this might happen back when he was waging his nomination battle with more worthy candidates, like Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. As I and others have pointed out, Trump has been a lifelong liberal Democrat, and even gave substantial donations to Hillary's presidential bid in 2008. I'm just glad the Clinton crime family did not get to take over the White House. We'll have to see how many of his promises Trump keeps. The first real test will come in whom he nominates to replace Justice Anton Scalia on the Supreme Court.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: NobleHunter on November 12, 2016, 12:58:50 PM
The first real test will come in whom he nominates to replace Justice Anton Scalia on the Supreme Court.
I wonder if the GOP will let the filibustering rule stands. If they do, the Democrats should filibuster the hell out of any nominee remotely similar to Scalia. There's no reason the GOP should a judge they prefer from refusing to do their job.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 01:09:30 PM
The first real test will come in whom he nominates to replace Justice Anton Scalia on the Supreme Court.
I wonder if the GOP will let the filibustering rule stands. If they do, the Democrats should filibuster the hell out of any nominee remotely similar to Scalia. There's no reason the GOP should a judge they prefer from refusing to do their job.

I thought it still only needed 51 votes to end a filibuster?

The Democrats lowered the Bar while they were control, and the Republicans never put it back.

Ok correction checking wiki:

Quote
On November 21, 2013, the Senate used the so-called "nuclear option," voting 52-48, with all Republicans and 3 Democrats voting against, to eliminate the use of the filibuster on executive branch nominees and judicial nominees other than to the Supreme Court.

Republicans have made no changes to the rules since taking control back, though they've talked about it. So that one is still on the books.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 12, 2016, 01:11:12 PM
Unfortunately the end is always in the beginning

I suspect that trump believes that the ends justify the means which allowed him to say the things he said the way he said them regardless of things like facts and truth.

Even after months of election babble we still do not know what Trump really believes or for that matter who is really is. 

That problem is he used fear, misinformation, intimidation, hyperbole… to fire up his base. What happens to this base if he pulls back from his more extreme positions? Will they let him? Maybe this is elitism bias, what ever this elitism is, but he has some very extreme emotional people backing him.

Trump played with fire and like all those that play with fire will likely end up burned. Let us hope without burning down the house.

My perdition their will be fire
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 01:18:04 PM
My perdition their will be fire

Best typos ever.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: NobleHunter on November 12, 2016, 01:20:20 PM
I thought it still only needed 51 votes to end a filibuster?

The Democrats lowered the Bar while they were control, and the Republicans never put it back.
IRRC, the change didn't apply to the Supreme Court, though there's no particular obstacle preventing the GOP from doing that.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 03:03:26 PM
I thought it still only needed 51 votes to end a filibuster?

The Democrats lowered the Bar while they were control, and the Republicans never put it back.
IRRC, the change didn't apply to the Supreme Court, though there's no particular obstacle preventing the GOP from doing that.

Yes, Wiki indicates the SCotUS nominations are still subject to cloture by a 60 vote margin, unless the minority leader + 8 other members of the minority party's membership petition for it.

And as already established thanks to the Democrats, the Republicans can indeed implement such a rule change with just 51 votes.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 03:12:25 PM
...and in a venue elsewhere, I'm now hearing claims that basically sound like a lot of people belive Donald Trump is going to make it legal for people to perpetuate hate crimes against the LGBT+ crowd, to the level that many of them may end up killed as a consequence.  ???

Someone needs to lay off the drugs.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: DJQuag on November 12, 2016, 03:24:30 PM
...and in a venue elsewhere, I'm now hearing claims that basically sound like a lot of people belive Donald Trump is going to make it legal for people to perpetuate hate crimes against the LGBT+ crowd, to the level that many of them may end up killed as a consequence.  ???

Someone needs to lay off the drugs.

I personally feel that people need to be careful about this boy crying wolf bull*censored*.

Trump, his team, and whoever comes after him (because come on, who here thinks Trump won't commit an impeachable offense? ) will do an awful lot of really bad *censored*. But it won't help our cause to declare that the concentration camps are opening up over every little thing.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 04:16:25 PM
Trump, his team, and whoever comes after him (because come on, who here thinks Trump won't commit an impeachable offense? ) will do an awful lot of really bad *censored*. But it won't help our cause to declare that the concentration camps are opening up over every little thing.

On Trump getting impeached: I'm agreeable, the Republicans (and Democrats) will probably be more than happy to impeach him if he provides them the chance.

I'm currently at a coin toss on if he actually wanted to be President or not, I'm still leaning towards he was in the race for the Publicity. If it was for the publicity, he's going to try to get "run out of office" as quickly as possible, be that by resignation or Impeachment.

Of course, then we have to deal with President Pence, unless someone finds a way to remove him from the picture first. In which case we may be looking at a President Paul Ryan(the last Republican VP to resign was replaced by the Ranking Republican in the House of Representatives--Which gave us President Ford), which would be hilarious for other reasons--mostly due to 2012.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 07:07:15 PM
...and in a venue elsewhere, I'm now hearing claims that basically sound like a lot of people belive Donald Trump is going to make it legal for people to perpetuate hate crimes against the LGBT+ crowd, to the level that many of them may end up killed as a consequence.  ???

Someone needs to lay off the drugs.

I personally feel that people need to be careful about this boy crying wolf bull*censored*.

Oh, they're doubling down on it now. It seems a lot of (young) people within the LGBT+ community are killing themselves out of fear over what a Donald Trump Presidency will be like for them.

And evidently, it is all Donald Trump's fault. It couldn't possibly have been due to any fear mongering on the part of left-wing trying to scare people into voting for Hillary now, could it?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 12, 2016, 08:59:21 PM
Doubling down the new political reality.
 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 09:52:18 PM
Doubling down the new political reality.

The person I was engaging in that particular exchange ultimately declared I was "blaming the victim" and after declaring the moral high ground, ignored me.  ::)

Evidently pointing out that, by his own admission, lots of LGBT+ people are killing themselves because they're freaking out and afraid while much of the social support network is doing the same thing(freaking out and being afraid).  Qualifies as "blaming the victim."

Besides being technically correct when it comes to suicides, if they hadn't killed themselves they'd still be alive. There is that whole matter of "WHY were they 'freaking out and afraid?'"

If they're afraid, and their social support network is also afraid, there is something else going on. But that means doing some self-reflection, and they're clearly not ready for that right now.

Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 12, 2016, 10:46:29 PM
Further checking, seems to be that the alleged "(suicide) death spike" may not be a real thing at all. Will take a bit longer to be certain, but right now I understand that even GLAAD doesn't think it's happening.

Spike in crises calls? Certainly, but not deaths so far as anyone can tell right now.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 13, 2016, 12:03:03 PM
Just been hearing  the "Doubling down" strategy a lot lately 
In stead of reflecting on if a statement or position is reasonable and or if there might be a reason people are reacting as they are to what was said, you double down.   That's the thing with the lie that is "truthful hyperbole" you double down by increasing the hyperbole.

I'm afraid were going to be seeing more of this type of  rhetoric as it as proven to be so effective. 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 13, 2016, 01:24:35 PM
Just been hearing  the "Doubling down" strategy a lot lately

It was a lot of the Obama Admin strategy for his terms of office.

Republicans don't want to cooperate? Stonewall them, and lambast them in the media.
Make "nice conciliatory noises" in the press, but never carry through on it. Instead, go visit various "politically optimal" locations to maximize "optics" as to the people being "harmed" by the evil, diabolical, and intransigent Republicans.
Take no responsibility yourself, just keep talking about "how you're willing to work with them" while not actually following through(in good faith), and deflect all blame back at them.

Trump just exacerbated the whole problem because now both sides have politicians who are now demonstrably proven to be fully capable of, and willing to, lie through their teeth to your face. Republicans were typically hammered because they were being (reasonably) honest about things(and inept at communicating things), so far as politicians go, at least.

Will make the next few years interesting to say the least, now that the Democrats have to contend with a PotUS who isn't a Democrat, and is just as willing as they are to lie, deflect, and defer to the American public. Even better at the moment, since like Obama in 2008, his party controls Congress for at least the next 2 years.

Maybe they'll learn to be a lot more honest in their dealings with the American public going forward after this is over and done with? I'm not holding my breath.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: yossarian22c on November 13, 2016, 10:17:13 PM
Predictions are hard to make but here are some of my fears:
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.
2) The economy goes into a recession, Trump demagogues trade and all things foreign passes reactionary tariffs leading to a trade war and GD2.
3) Trumps bluster breaks apart the coalition battling ISIS leading to a resurgence of ISIS while what remains of the other rebels gets slaughtered by Russian planes.
4) Trumps bluster leads to an increase of recruiting of Muslim extremest from within the USA as many in that community will feel more alienated and threatened.
5) Trump makes gives the US the reputation (with his potential working relationship with Putin) of being an extortion racket demanding more money/concessions for our mutual defense alliances.  This leads to a much stronger anti-American sentiment throughout the world, particularly in places once considered friendly to America.
6) Trump gets to appoint enough SC justices to have an impact on the country for 30+ years.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 14, 2016, 12:04:15 AM
Predictions are hard to make but here are some of my fears:
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.

The numbers don't add up, and the favored plan does questionable good at great expense. There are other, more productive(and cost effective) ways to use that money to have a positive impact on the environment. Besides which, as the past 8 years demonstrated here in the US.

The CO2 emissions went down DESPITE efforts to reduce it, not because of them. Natural Gas, another fossil fuel, absolutely murdered the coal fired power plants in the United States. That one definitely wasn't very high on anyone's green agenda.

Yes, do research energy alternatives, but let's not sink our economy into giant financial boondoggles involving the "right now" tech, and wait for the market to find a greener soluton(s). As happened with Natural Gas, once a cleaner and cheaper option opens up, it can and will dominate the market with little outside (government) assistance needed. Lets not wreck the global economy in the interim, that just reduces our ability to respond to the problems that are going to crop up anyway at this point.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 14, 2016, 08:43:29 AM
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.

I suspect that the solution to climate change will end up being technological rather than economic.

Quote
3) Trumps bluster breaks apart the coalition battling ISIS leading to a resurgence of ISIS while what remains of the other rebels gets slaughtered by Russian planes.

What coalition? Right now it consists of Syria and Russia, and the current administration was trying to break up that coalition.

Quote
4) Trumps bluster leads to an increase of recruiting of Muslim extremest from within the USA as many in that community will feel more alienated and threatened.

I don't believe local bluster would affect this one way or the other. Foreign policy will have a far greater effect on how many people are disaffected enough to want to do something about it.

Quote
5) Trump makes gives the US the reputation (with his potential working relationship with Putin) of being an extortion racket demanding more money/concessions for our mutual defense alliances.  This leads to a much stronger anti-American sentiment throughout the world, particularly in places once considered friendly to America.

I think the ship has already sailed on this one...
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 14, 2016, 09:36:19 AM
5) Trump makes gives the US the reputation (with his potential working relationship with Putin) of being an extortion racket demanding more money/concessions for our mutual defense alliances.  This leads to a much stronger anti-American sentiment throughout the world, particularly in places once considered friendly to America.

I think the ship has already sailed on this one...

Indeed, if Bush(43) didn't alienate them, Obama did. That ship has well and truly sailed. We've got a long road to haul if we're going to get back to what we had back in the 1990's.

And we'd probably either need another cold war, or "large hot war," to pull THAT off, neither option seems particularly appealing to me.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 14, 2016, 09:43:00 AM
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.

I suspect that the solution to climate change will end up being technological rather than economic.

Yeah, I forget what the exact number was, but several years ago the EU pledged to invest in Solar and Wind Technology, in order to reduce their GHG emissions. At an estimated additional annual cost of over $2.5 Billion(Euro) per year over the better part of the next century. For an estimated change in Global Warming of maybe a quarter of a degree.

Could you imagine the progress that could be made in material science and physical sciences if they were willing to throw that kind of annual money at Fusion Power research?

Or you know, instead directed that money towards getting more people in the third world off of the "dirty energy" sources they're using to cook with, light their homes(news flash: not everybody has electric lighting), etc. Heck, just getting them better cooking stoves would help a lot, and cost a lot less.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 14, 2016, 10:56:44 AM
Once again we have chosen short term economic gain to benefit the few over long term
So glad I don’t have children.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 14, 2016, 03:30:53 PM
Once again we have chosen short term economic gain to benefit the few over long term
So glad I don’t have children.

Larger economies have larger tool chests they can use to address problems. Those "short term" gains likewise turn into long term gains for everyone else when markets are allowed to operate efficiently.

The "problem" is many of the solutions being pushed currently, are actually the ones that provide significant short term gains for a select number of people and groups, at great cost to everyone else. With little actual net gain to be had, because they're making the market behave in ineffective and inefficient ways. It is diverting resources that could have been better used elsewhere.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 15, 2016, 09:24:32 AM
I'll go ahead and make a prediction about Trump's Presidency. I think he will veer left, back to what was always presumed to be his political leaning, and will turn out to be far more centrist than either side was willing to believe. He will, on the one hand, somewhat betray right-extremists who were hoping for a Terminator to mop up the undesirables, and on the other hand, betray the hatred of the left by not being the boogeyman they are almost gleefully hoping him to be. It's much less empowering, after all, to merely dislike the man, rather than to be able to say he's a neo-Hitler. I can't predict how well his first term goes, but assuming it does go well, he will have more bipartisan support than he had in this election and might win again after having lost some of his hard-line right wing support but gained the support of centrists who realize he is very far from being a neocon.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 15, 2016, 09:31:00 AM
I predict voters 4 to 8 years from now will have a far better idea of what a president can and cannot actually do compared to what we are use to them promising they will do if elected.

Maybe we should teach this stuff in school...  :P
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 15, 2016, 09:47:51 AM
I'll go ahead and make a prediction about Trump's Presidency. I think he will veer left, back to what was always presumed to be his political leaning, and will turn out to be far more centrist than either side was willing to believe. He will, on the one hand, somewhat betray right-extremists who were hoping for a Terminator to mop up the undesirables, and on the other hand, betray the hatred of the left by not being the boogeyman they are almost gleefully hoping him to be. It's much less empowering, after all, to merely dislike the man, rather than to be able to say he's a neo-Hitler. I can't predict how well his first term goes, but assuming it does go well, he will have more bipartisan support than he had in this election and might win again after having lost some of his hard-line right wing support but gained the support of centrists who realize he is very far from being a neocon.

Which is why I made the prediction he is likely to be hated by both sides before all is said and done. Much of the (racist/anti-gay) "alt-right"(who aren't very "right-wing" on a number of things, but I guess that's why "Alt" as in alternative is such an apt appendage to their title) because he "betrayed them" and the extreme left because he's "stealing their issues" and obtaining a solid unassailable hold on the political center.

I said it earlier, I'll say it again. Running for a new political office, in particular, a High Office, is near impossible to do as a centrist/moderate in the United States(Romney and McCain both demonstrated this, IMO). You'll be torn apart by all sides. Which is why Trump didn't run as one. However, when it comes to re-election, in particular for Presidents, the incumbent has a huge advantage, particularly if most people are happy with things have been going.

So there is a bit more than wild speculation behind the theory he ran as far-right to get elected(who knows, he may agree with them on a very short list of issues--like securing the border), as that protected him from one flank, without overly alienating him from the center. Now that he's in office, he can pivot towards the center. But while this may be a bit more than wild speculation, it remains speculation until the rubber hits the road as it were, we'll see what he does after he takes office.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 15, 2016, 10:54:50 AM
I think this alt movement is bigger and darker then were currently aware of…

Something we don’t yet understand is happening and I don’t think we’re going to like it

All this rationalizing – from the same people who got it all wrong, we don’t know what we’re talking about.

I can’ get the image of Trump entrance at the GOP convention as a rising backlit shadow rising out of my mind.

I predict history will use this image as the warning America ignored.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: NobleHunter on November 15, 2016, 11:56:39 AM
I think this alt movement is bigger and darker then were currently aware of…

Something we don’t yet understand is happening and I don’t think we’re going to like it

All this rationalizing – from the same people who got it all wrong, we don’t know what we’re talking about.

I can’ get the image of Trump entrance at the GOP convention as a rising backlit shadow rising out of my mind.

I predict history will use this image as the warning America ignored.
I think this is at the core of why so many people are freaking out. Association with the alt-right should be the kiss of death for a mainstream politician. It's been fifty years of work to drive their "alt" viewpoints out of the mainstream. The problem isn't just Trump, it's that he's empowered and legitimized some fairly nasty people. It's also not clear that he'll do much to prevent some truly idiotic moves by the anti-governance wing of the GOP.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 15, 2016, 01:56:10 PM
Trump is bound to "veer left" because his promises are so far to the right, he can't (and never could) possibly keep them. :)

The Wall won't be a 10-12 ft. concrete barrier stretching the entire length of the Mexican boarder.  (In fact, he will probably add only a few hundred miles of fencing to what already exists.)  Illegal immigration, as measured by authoritative sources will be higher by the end of the next term than it is currently.  Breitbart (or equivalent) will publish their own bogus numbers, which Trump will cite.

He won't deport the entire 11 million illegal immigrants in this country.  He'll probably deport less than half of them, if that, and then declare victory.  And, after an initial push that will last for a few months, he will pull back any actions against employers hiring illegal immigrants.

He will toss out the TPP, but he won't make a "better deal" and we will end up in a worse situation (probably without an agreement).

We will come to the brink of a trade war with China and maybe some other nations, but he'll back off at the last minute, and most economists will agree that we are worse off as a result.  He will, however, declare that we are much better off, and Fox and Brietbart will agree.  Inflation will increase, while production will decline.

He will cut taxes, but most of the cuts will go to the top 5% or less.  Many in the middle and lower classes will actually pay more in taxes.  The deficit will increase.

He will get a Transportation Works bill through Congress, since Obama won't get credit for it anymore. :)  But the bill won't be paid for, and the deficit will increase.

He will move back civil rights for gays and minorities, and expand libel laws, until the Supreme Court finds his actions illegal.  He will declare the Supreme Court biased and rigged, and may not respect one or more of the rulings, which would lead to a Constitutional crisis.

He will, of course, repeal Obamacare.  After a few months, he will sign a new health care law, which he will say is better than the ACA.  Millions of people who have health insurance now will no longer have it with the new plan.  And the new plan will not be sustainable, since it still has the clauses to allow people to join with pre-existing conditions.  After a few years, he will remove that clause, if the plan was not replaced by a single-payer system.  Premiums will be much higher than they are now.

We will have more terrorist attacks than we did during the Obama Administration.  Trump will use them to give the government more power and to limit more rights, mainly for minorities.  The Presidency will be more powerful than it was with Obama.

And heaven help us if there is a major terrorist attack on the order of 9/11.  Because he will ask from Congress sweeping powers, and he will get most of them.  This would be in line with creating a fascist state, such as the way the Riechstag fire was used.  (I sincerely hope I am wrong about this--but remember, you heard it here first! :)  :'( )

The EPA will be eliminated or severely hobbled.  Overall air and water quality will be worse as a result.

So while many things that the Right wants--Obamacare repealed, the EPA hobbled, taxes cut, gays and minorities not having more rights than whites--will happen, many things the Right doesn't want--more government, a worse economy, a higher deficit, fewer rights--will also occur as a result of the things that Trump will do.

The Right, of course, will blame all the bad things on the Left. :)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 15, 2016, 02:55:44 PM
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-50k-bails-for-northwestern-university-students-accused-of-chapel-vandalism-20160312-story.html

Quote
A Cook County judge on Saturday lashed out at two Northwestern University freshmen accused of spray-painting racist and homophobic messages along with the name of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump inside a nondenominational chapel on the university's campus.

I often wonder about the reports I'm hearing on social media about all of the "sudden" racism, homophobia, and violence being exhibited since Trump's election. The liberal echo chamber is clamoring to prove that Trump being elected has incited all sorts of people to act out their hateful fantasies, the implication being that Trump's presence will cause America to slide back into being an anarchic pool of mayhem.

While it is certainly possible that some of these reports do have validity, a story such as this should demonstrate to us not to believe a word that is said about motives behind any acts that end up ascribed to Trump's bad influence. This one was caught on camera and so there was no question that it was a deliberate false flag desecration of a church meant to implicate Trump supporters. How many other events of this type might also be much the same? Without going into a point-by-point analysis of every story flying around social media right now, my suggestion would be to be very cautious to believe any of what's being said right now about Trump supporters. This may end up being similar to during the election process, where I do not believe the main disturbances at rallies were originating from Trump people.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: NobleHunter on November 15, 2016, 04:59:39 PM
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-50k-bails-for-northwestern-university-students-accused-of-chapel-vandalism-20160312-story.html

Quote
A Cook County judge on Saturday lashed out at two Northwestern University freshmen accused of spray-painting racist and homophobic messages along with the name of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump inside a nondenominational chapel on the university's campus.

I often wonder about the reports I'm hearing on social media about all of the "sudden" racism, homophobia, and violence being exhibited since Trump's election. The liberal echo chamber is clamoring to prove that Trump being elected has incited all sorts of people to act out their hateful fantasies, the implication being that Trump's presence will cause America to slide back into being an anarchic pool of mayhem.

While it is certainly possible that some of these reports do have validity, a story such as this should demonstrate to us not to believe a word that is said about motives behind any acts that end up ascribed to Trump's bad influence. This one was caught on camera and so there was no question that it was a deliberate false flag desecration of a church meant to implicate Trump supporters. How many other events of this type might also be much the same? Without going into a point-by-point analysis of every story flying around social media right now, my suggestion would be to be very cautious to believe any of what's being said right now about Trump supporters. This may end up being similar to during the election process, where I do not believe the main disturbances at rallies were originating from Trump people.
How is this a false flag? There's nothing in the link about the idiots' motivation.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 15, 2016, 09:57:38 PM
I think this is at the core of why so many people are freaking out. Association with the alt-right should be the kiss of death for a mainstream politician. It's been fifty years of work to drive their "alt" viewpoints out of the mainstream. The problem isn't just Trump, it's that he's empowered and legitimized some fairly nasty people. It's also not clear that he'll do much to prevent some truly idiotic moves by the anti-governance wing of the GOP.

I think the "Dark side" "alt right" is probably bigger than most people think it is, but I also think it is a LOT smaller than a lot of people are fearing it to be. Only time will tell where exactly that middle ground turns out to be.

That being said, "the alt-right empowerment" that was witnessed this election cycle had very little to do with Donald Trump, although he certainly capitalized on it.

It was 8 years of the Obama Administration, and the almost pro-forma tendency to call anyone who disagreed with Obama a racist. Which helped give rise to the conditions we're seeing now, where people jumping up and down and screaming about Trump and company "being Racist" was met with people simply rolling their eyes.

This was stuff Glenn Beck and others were warning about after about the first year of Obama. The label "racist" was being over-used, and they were creating a boy-who-cried-wolf scenario. "Oh they're calling us racist? Don't they realize that term is almost meaningless now? They use it on everyone."
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 15, 2016, 10:04:17 PM
Wayward, I think you nailed things well, though you left out a few.  He and the Republican House will hobble medicare and the Department of Education will become vestigial.   More failures amid dour predictions to come as the picture becomes more clear. The only glimmer of hope is that even the Republicans in Congress appear ready to oppose some of his proposals.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 15, 2016, 10:38:05 PM

> TheDeamon

> "Oh they're calling us racist? Don't they realize that term is almost meaningless now? They use it on everyone."

Not on everyone. But that makes your point even better. When liberals boast that Obama has deported more illegals than Bush that's not racist. But when Trump wants to simply enforce existing immigration law and secure the border that absolutely is racist.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 15, 2016, 10:59:55 PM

> TheDeamon

> "Oh they're calling us racist? Don't they realize that term is almost meaningless now? They use it on everyone."

Not on everyone. But that makes your point even better. When liberals boast that Obama has deported more illegals than Bush that's not racist. But when Trump wants to simply enforce existing immigration law and secure the border that absolutely is racist.

That too.

But just looking at this forum I'm scratching my head.

If a person has spent the better part of the past 8 years being almost constantly accused of being racist on basically no basis at all. Is it shocking that they'd ignore warnings coming from the same quarters that have been making unsubstantiated claims as to their(personally) being racist?

As mentioned, the better part of the time since the 1940's has been spent trying to marginalize Racial Supremacy groups, and to great effect. Then Obama becomes President, we enter a "Post-Racial America" where promptly any views dissenting from Obama's plan is immediately labelled Racist, and all discussion ends.

Congratulations, 8 years of abusing a term for political expediency in the interest of shaming the dissenting view, rather than opening dialogues with them, has given rise to "Donald Trump and the Alt-Right."

I have hopes that Trump is separable from the Alt-Right and is not actually "invested" in their ideas more than superficially. But we'll see. Either way, this entire situation has a whole lot to do with power politics and "the politics of shame" as they've been getting applied over the past decade. This isn't something that just suddenly cropped up out of the blue this election cycle. 

The good news is the Republican Congressional Delegation hasn't changed much, so if Trump does try to push a hard core racist agenda, much of the RNC is likely to push back as well as the Democrats.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 15, 2016, 11:11:31 PM

How is this a false flag? There's nothing in the link about the idiots' motivation.

Not a slam dunk for sure, and it's entirely possible for such an event to be a mixed motive. For instance if they were drunk (as their attorney argued) the desecration might have been for fun, while adding the name of Trump to it could have knowingly been a piece of mayhem they knew would give their act a certain attribution other than what it really was. So in this sense I don't mean false flag to necessarily mean a deliberate piece of planned political sabotage, as it could also include an improvised act that had the public image of Trump in mind. Especially as (not cited in this article) one of them was the son of the MA chief justice, it would have been relevant to deflect blame from himself onto the sorts of people 'expected' to do this sort of thing.

The only thing I'm mention as a caveat that I forgot to before is that this happened several months ago, and so isn't strictly relevant to Trump winning but rather to the narrative that Trump inspires violence, which went back through the primaries.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 15, 2016, 11:58:11 PM
You can't deny that certain Trump supporters are simply evil, Fenring.  And that has nothing to do with media reporting.

I was listening to an interview with Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly on NPR this afternoon.  Did you know she received death threats for confronting Trump about his remarks about women during the Republican debates?  You know, the questions that had him talking about her bleeding from "wherever."  She said her children would be lookg out the window in fear of anyone coming up the driveway.

And remember what happened to David French, when some low-life scum made a picture of his daughter in a gas chamber with Trump at the switch.  Along with the death threats, one that was truly serious.  All because he didn't support Trump in a conservative magazine.

Or how about this supposed Trump supporter? (http://freethoughtblogs.com/pharyngula/2016/11/15/they-discredit-themselves-with-their-own-words/#more-32702)  (Warning: this guy's mouth should be washed out with a Brillo pad.  Right after they wrap him in a straight jacket.)

I have heard about this from the Alt-Right well before this election, well before Trump was a candidate.  This is how some members of the Alt-Right are.  And Stephen Bannon has been pandering to the Alt-Right for years now.

Do you think these people have gone away, now that their candidate has won?  No, they feel empowered.  They feel like they won.  They feel like they now can do anything.

I don't know if Trump inspires violence and idiots like these.  But they do use him as an excuse.  They are, for some reason, attracted to him.  They defend him.  They expect (wrongly, I believe and pray) that he supports them and will help them achieve the power they deserve.

There doesn't need to be any false flags now.  These idiots have shown their colors well before Trump won.  The only question is, how much further are they going to go?

If you have any doubt, go onto Reddit and badmouth Trump for a while.  They're still out there.  And they aren't afraid to express themselves.

Just make sure you also own a gun. :(
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 16, 2016, 12:12:22 AM
There is a difference between having no need for a "false flag" and there being "no false flag" type activities going on. Both sides have a lot to gain, for different reasons, by going about doing that stuff right now in particular. Although the (smart) racists would probably prefer to keep their heads down until Trump officially takes office. So in that respect, yes plenty of idiots acting out. But it's just as likely to be a "false flag" from some lefties out on a lark trying to make Trump voters look stupid.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 16, 2016, 12:12:52 AM
I don't know if Trump inspires violence and idiots like these.  But they do use him as an excuse.

This is a reasonable comment, and I think it ought to have been the centerpiece of your post. This really is a problem, but the problem isn't Trump. Is that there are scores of whackos out there looking for justification to scream and shout at whomever they think is a good target. The noteworthy thing here is that it isn't limited to Trump supporters, but it appears on the other side of the fence as well when certain people have ended up on the wrong side of liberal activists. The whole Twitter-brigade and death threats thing happens in every quarter now, whether it's about gay marriage, gamergate, Donald Trump, BLM, you name it. Death threats are the new normal for any controversial public stance. I would agree wholeheartedly that this is a problem, and that something is awry when so many people are looking to express themselves in this way.

And yet for all that while you may be interested to note the causes around which these whackos flock, at the same time the those causes didn't create those people. You might rightly sneer when a politician courts such people, yet also remember that both political parties are looking for their respective whackos, probably in equal measure.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Gaoics79 on November 16, 2016, 05:35:27 AM
Quote
Congratulations, 8 years of abusing a term for political expediency in the interest of shaming the dissenting view, rather than opening dialogues with them, has given rise to "Donald Trump and the Alt-Right."

This is a pretty important point.

Regarding Trump's "racism", I learned long ago in this election campaign not to bother defending that guy whole hog, because he's always going to disappoint you. Every time you become convinced that he didn't mean something some way or there's more nuance to something he said, he goes ahead and jams the rest of his foot in his mouth.

So yes, he's said racist and sexist things. (although not misogynist, for what it's worth)

That said, alot of the most egregious things people attribute to him are not in fact things he said, or are distortions of things he said. Trump says alot of nasty *censored*, and people say alot of nasty *censored* about him that isn't true, or isn't fair. If you filter out the lies and distortions about Trump, he still comes across as an *censored* at a bare minimum, and certainly a sexist pig with some borderline racist views. But he's not a "misogynist" (there's been zero evidence for that), nor is it proven in my mind that he's a KKK racist as many seem convinced.

One thing I've become convinced of (and this goes back to TheDeamon's point) is that we're getting to a point where it just doesn't matter what a Republican politician says - he / she is going to get called racist / sexist / misogynist invariably. The only difference from one Republican politician and another is 1) How frequently this label gets applied and 2) How high on the food chain the comments are going to come from. In Trump's case, of course we reached a maximal level of frequency and saw the comments arising from headline sources, rather than lower level surrogates. But I expect in the future it's going to be more and more the norm for these kinds of labels to get thrown around. Trump, if anything, has accelerated this process. Now that news commentators and higher level surrogates have gotten a taste for it, expect more of the same in the future. The Republicans could nominate Ghandi reincarnated as their next candidate, and you can bet he'll be called a racist, and a misogynist, and a sexist, and whatever else you like.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 16, 2016, 05:54:20 AM
The media does this ALL the time and my prediction is that they will keep doing it, and with impunity.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/protester-tackled-during-anti-trump-072418790.html

"A protester at an anti-Trump rally was shoved to the ground in the middle of a speech."

So we get one sentence and then a video showing a man barrelling down the stairs and slamming into an anti-Trump protestor in a cowardly attack from behind. The man is promptly attacked but thankfully the people attacking him are quickly stopped. Police escort the violent Trump supporter out to calls of, "Shame! Shame! Shame!"  Then you get all the comments with many saying that people have the right to assemble peacefully and Trump supporters want to instigate violence at peaceful rallies. This type of "story" is just thrown out there and left as it is with no correction from the mainstream media that put it out there. So if you just look at that story and never look back and never dig deeper you get a certain impression of what's going on.

An impression, it turns out, that isn't accurate at all.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tamerragriffin/ohio-state-university-student-tackles-protester?utm_term=.olGbaLPx8R#.tk51VJzdg4

"Adams can be seen standing on a set of stairs in the video saying into a megaphone, “We don’t have to compromise,” when another man, later identified by police as 24-year-old Shane Michael Stanton, runs up behind him and tackles him to the ground.

The video captures Stanton clearly shouting “You idiot” just before leaping at Adams, 25.

“Initially, with the information available, Tim felt it was important that white nationalists not be further emboldened by this action and decided to pursue criminal charges in the hopes that it might play some role in protecting movement activists from similar or potentially worse harm in the future,” protest organizers said."

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But then they found out what really happened.

"On Tuesday, Adams’ group, the Columbus chapter of the International Socialist Organization, said he is seeking to have the charges dropped since learning that Stanton was not a Trump supporter and not politically motivated. A friend of Stanton’s wrote on Facebook that he was a Hillary Clinton supporter, and his actions may have been related to a disability. His mother told the Lantern he has Asperger syndrome."

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And that's the crucial detail nobody bothered to check before putting the story out. In fact it is still out with the video and that one sentence explanation on mainstream media sites like yahoo and hasn't been corrected even though the information to do so is already out. You can't really call this a false flag although the effect is the same. It's just the hit and run media completely lying again. And again. And again.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 16, 2016, 09:33:19 AM
Quote
This isn't something that just suddenly cropped up out of the blue this election cycle.
Not sure if that was intentional or not, but it's pretty clever.  :)

Quote
You can't deny that certain Trump supporters are simply evil, Fenring.  And that has nothing to do with media reporting.
I will.  My brother, and several other relatives are not evil.  I, being a judgmental and sometimes superior feeling liberal, slot them in the uninformed and voting against their own interests catagory... but they are not evil.  For the love of whatever you hold dear (maybe our country?) use "some" or even "most" if you believe that when talking this way.  When you suggest it's all of them you come off as a fool not worth listening to.

Generalizations and vilification is what is going to make this country irreparable. 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 16, 2016, 09:47:23 AM
You can't deny that certain Trump supporters are simply evil, Fenring.  And that has nothing to do with media reporting.

I'll agree with D.W.'s comment on this, but again, commenting on what people "are" seems to me essentially incoherent. Unless you have a basis that goes back to first principles where evil is a "thing" and can be directly attributed to some people, what you're really saying is that you don't like what some people do, and are trying to paste a bad sounding word onto them to dismiss them as people. Even most religions I know of don't have any basis for a metaphysics where a person can "be" evil, although it could be said that they do evil things sometimes. And if you put religion aside then the word really is no more than a rhetorical attack akin to "I don't like them!" In which case, no, I cannot deny that you may not like certain people.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: JoshCrow on November 16, 2016, 09:58:14 AM
"bad apples" would have been fairer than "evil".
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 16, 2016, 10:01:40 AM
"bad apples" would have been fairer than "evil".
Well I can see my Trump voting family as bad apples leaping into the cider press because there are a few rotten apples at the bottom of the basket.  :)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 16, 2016, 11:06:14 AM
D.W. said:
Quote
Quote
You can't deny that certain Trump supporters are simply evil, Fenring.  And that has nothing to do with media reporting.
I will.  My brother, and several other relatives are not evil.  I, being a judgmental and sometimes superior feeling liberal, slot them in the uninformed and voting against their own interests catagory... but they are not evil.  For the love of whatever you hold dear (maybe our country?) use "some" or even "most" if you believe that when talking this way.  When you suggest it's all of them you come off as a fool not worth listening to.

Generalizations and vilification is what is going to make this country irreparable.

I would if I could, D.W., but apparently I can't.

Because if you review my quote, I did.

Quote
You can't deny that certain Trump supporters are simply evil, Fenring.

Here, I used the word "certain" as "a limited number," as in "certain individuals."  I did not mean it as "those who have certainty in their belief."

Perhaps I should have used a word that was less possible to misinterpret.  But I think this is a symptom of our current political climate.

When Hillary talked about Trump's "basket of deplorables," she was not referring to all Trump supporters, either.  But it was taken that way by many, if not most, of them.  And yet there is a number of deplorables that strongly support Trump--racists (KKK), sexists (Alt-Right), and just plain scum.

Review my examples in my last post.  Those death threats were directed at Conservatives--individuals who have been reporting Conservative stories and ideals for years.  Yet they were considered worthy of these despicable acts, because they criticized or embarrassed Trump.

So, no, I don't think or say that all Trump supporters are like this.  I believe they are a tiny minority.  But I also don't believe both sides are the same.  Romney didn't get such enthusiastic support from the KKK.  Republican opponents of John McCain didn't have to worry about being killed by McCain supporters.  This is a new level of aggression.

I don't blame Trump for the behavior of this tiny minority.  But it worries me.  Because, for whatever reason, these scum apparently believe that Trump is one of them.

And I'm deeply afraid that they might--just might--be right. :(
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 16, 2016, 11:22:57 AM
Oh, yeah, there's one more prediction about the Trump Administration I forgot to mention.

We've had almost eight years now without a senior-level member of the President's administration convicted of corruption.  (A new record in recent history.)  Sure, plenty of scandals and inquiries, but no actual convictions, like in the Nixon or Reagan Administrations.

That is going to change.

There will be at least 2 members of the Trump Administration that will be convicted of criminal charges.

And I wouldn't take any bets that Trump himself won't be one of them. ;)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 16, 2016, 11:30:39 AM
You can't deny that certain Trump supporters are simply evil, Fenring.  And that has nothing to do with media reporting.

I'll agree with D.W.'s comment on this, but again, commenting on what people "are" seems to me essentially incoherent. Unless you have a basis that goes back to first principles where evil is a "thing" and can be directly attributed to some people, what you're really saying is that you don't like what some people do, and are trying to paste a bad sounding word onto them to dismiss them as people. Even most religions I know of don't have any basis for a metaphysics where a person can "be" evil, although it could be said that they do evil things sometimes. And if you put religion aside then the word really is no more than a rhetorical attack akin to "I don't like them!" In which case, no, I cannot deny that you may not like certain people.

Oh, yeah, Fenring, when a person makes a picture of your daughter in a gas chamber, that person is simply evil.  When a person threatens your family because you've said bad--but true--things about your candidate, that's evil.

Yes, there are evil people on both sides.  But evil is the correct word to describe such people who think that threating children is an appropriate political response for people who disagree with them.  >:(
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 16, 2016, 11:32:00 AM
I wouldn't take bets on some Obama Administration officials not getting hammered for corruption now that his Administration can no longer shield them and "slow walk" the process.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Lloyd Perna on November 16, 2016, 11:39:05 AM
D.W. said:

When Hillary talked about Trump's "basket of deplorables," she was not referring to all Trump supporters, either.  But it was taken that way by many, if not most, of them. 


You're right, she was only referring to half of them.   
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: NobleHunter on November 16, 2016, 12:17:45 PM
I wouldn't take bets on some Obama Administration officials not getting hammered for corruption now that his Administration can no longer shield them and "slow walk" the process.
I bet Trump "in the spirit of bipartisanship" will drop most investigations.

The last thing he'll want is to set the precedent of investigations after he leaves office. If for no other reason than he seems so incompetent that he'll break all sorts of rules by accident.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 16, 2016, 12:23:40 PM
I wouldn't take bets on some Obama Administration officials not getting hammered for corruption now that his Administration can no longer shield them and "slow walk" the process.
I bet Trump "in the spirit of bipartisanship" will drop most investigations.

The last thing he'll want is to set the precedent of investigations after he leaves office. If for no other reason than he seems so incompetent that he'll break all sorts of rules by accident.

Looking like Ted Cruz may be the next Attorney General. Do you want to take odds on Trump calling him off?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 16, 2016, 12:40:51 PM
Apologies Wayward Son.  Reading comprehension failure...   :'(
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: yossarian22c on November 16, 2016, 02:15:17 PM
I predict Trump cabinet members will have on average the shortest length of service of any cabinet in the last 50 years.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 16, 2016, 02:24:21 PM

> Wayward Son

"There will be at least 2 members of the Trump Administration that will be convicted of criminal charges."

> TheDeamon

"I wouldn't take bets on some Obama Administration officials not getting hammered for corruption now that his Administration can no longer shield them and "slow walk" the process."

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I was thinking along similar lines to both of these predictions except that I would say members of the Trump administration who are guilty of corruption are much more likely to get investigated and convicted than those in the Obama administration were because Trump won't protect them. He'll be the first to say, "You're fired!"

If under a Trump administration the head of the IRS targets conservative organizations like Lerner did they won't be protected the way she was and have their crimes ignored like Obama did for her.

 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 16, 2016, 02:28:10 PM
If Ted Cruz is the next Attorney General that's awesome. Personally I think he would be great as a Supreme Court justice but since he isn't on Trump's list maybe that would technically be Trump breaking a promise. So Attorney General is the perfect spot for Cruz until the next vacancy on the Supreme Court opens up.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 16, 2016, 02:40:37 PM
TheDeamon

"Looking like Ted Cruz may be the next Attorney General. Do you want to take odds on Trump calling him off?"

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Even if Obama issues mass pardons the investigations should still proceed without any chance of sentencing just to shine a light on the crimes committed against the American people. Or even if Obama doesn't issue pardons maybe Trump will but still conduct the investigations because the American people have the right to know what happened. The third option of course is to do the investigations and then try, convict, and imprison people guilty of crimes. I'm actually not so much in favor of that because then we start getting into third world banana republic territory where nobody in power ever gives it up because when they do they know they will be headed for prison, exile, or worse. High government officials who are guilty of crimes against the American people might have their pensions taken away though but not put in federal prison. That saves the taxpayers money two ways and makes a point without getting crazy about it.

But if someone is intent on arguing that people who are proven in a court of law to be guilty of their crimes getting the prison sentence they deserve and being forced to serve it to prove a point about nobody being above the law, I probably wouldn't use up too much oxygen arguing with them about it. That's a valid opinion too.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 16, 2016, 02:59:37 PM
I predict Trump cabinet members will have on average the shortest length of service of any cabinet in the last 50 years.

I think I was the first one to suggest something in that vein, so not going to dispute that one.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 16, 2016, 03:57:10 PM
Apologies Wayward Son.  Reading comprehension failure...   :'(

Apology gratefully accepted.  :D

Quote
Even if Obama issues mass pardons the investigations should still proceed without any chance of sentencing just to shine a light on the crimes committed against the American people. Or even if Obama doesn't issue pardons maybe Trump will but still conduct the investigations because the American people have the right to know what happened. The third option of course is to do the investigations and then try, convict, and imprison people guilty of crimes.

If any of those things happens, then I have yet another prediction: no significant new information will be found in those investigations.

Because I don't think the Republicans who have investigated these scandals are nincompoops.  I think they did as thorough investigations as was possible.  I don't think there was any significant stonewalling by the Obama Administrations.  So I don't think there is much more to find.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: DJQuag on November 16, 2016, 03:59:08 PM
https://youtu.be/_kZsOISarzg

John Oliver is the new John Stewart. We can all agree on that, right? I mean, really, his venue on HBO gives him more leeway to go into less talked about subjects at greater length then Comedy Central could ever have offered.

And if and when you're watching this clip, keep in mind it's a year old.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: DJQuag on November 16, 2016, 04:02:44 PM
I mean, check out his talk about chicken farmers. Did you know about chicken farmers, or their problems? I sure didn't!

But as it turns out, they're just Americans trying to make a living getting bent over a barrel by huge corporations and politicians that have been paid off.

The election of Trump is a *censored*ing disaster. But it is a result of the little guy getting screwed more and more, every single year.

In the last cycle, Obama was the one offering hope. In this one, it was Trump.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 16, 2016, 11:09:10 PM
Just going to harp on this again because as I predicted the media is still running this nonsense.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hate-incidents-spreading-in-wake-of-trump-win-231607863.html

These are the Trump haters doing this, obviously.

Why on Earth would actual Trump supporters have a banner saying Make America Racist (dropping the Great) Again? That doesn't even make any sense, especially dressing up in Klan sheets and a sombrero.

But the real story is how stories like this don't connect the obvious dots and call these the false flags that they are. Some of them aren't even false flags but obviously just liberals making a point about how they believe Trump is racist like the banner at the top of the story, and still the so called "journalists" report them as Trump supporters actually being racist. It's just absurd.

The media has really jumped the shark already with their complicity in shilling this agitprop nonsense.

If there actually are real hate crimes by true Trump supporters against minorities its going to be very hard to distinguish them from the liberals just hurting themselves in ridiculous Dale and Tucker Vs Evil style imagining they are fighting off some great villain when it's all just in their overactive imaginations.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Gaoics79 on November 17, 2016, 05:18:43 AM
Cherry, you'll love this one:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/ottawa-jewish-prayer-centre-tagged-with-swastika-slur-and-its-rabbi-blamed-donald-trump

Quote
An attack like like can just pop up by itself without a specific, immediate cause, she believes. “And I also think we have a president-elect south of the border who has made it acceptable to be bigoted and racist.”

LOL.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 17, 2016, 07:42:07 AM
I just want to be clear why I put a like on that. It's not that I like swastikas or even graffiti in any form but just the ridiculousness of it especially the assumption that it has anything to do with Trump. I would put the odds at over 99% that this is self inflicted, either by a liberal up there or by the lady herself, and the odds at 99.999% that whoever did it has no love at all for Trump. For one thing, Trump is more pro-Israel than any of the Democrats. Look at the guy the Democrats are thinking of making head of the DNC now.

http://www.crainsdetroit.com/article/20161114/NEWS/161119878/detroit-native-keith-ellison-looks-to-become-head-of-democratic

The notion that Trump is in any way anti-Jewish is simply absurd.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 17, 2016, 11:13:30 AM
Yes, we know.  Trump is not anti-Jewish.  He just appoints an advisor (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/why-its-fair-and-necessary-call-trumps-chief-strategist-stephen-bannon-white-nationalist) who happens to be closely aligned with anti-Semites (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/14/politics/white-nationalists-on-bannon/index.html).

Quote
"You have an individual, Mr. Bannon, who's basically creating the ideological aspects of where we're going," added [David] Duke. "And ideology ultimately is the most important aspect of any government."

And you wonder why people think Trump's election may make bigots think they are acceptable and can do what they want?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Gaoics79 on November 17, 2016, 12:34:54 PM
Wayward, Trump's son-in-law and one of his closest advisors is Jewish and orthodox no less. His daughter Ivanka converted to Judaism, so yeah, his daughter is Jewish too.

There is 0.0% chance that Trump is an anti Semite.

Move on to more fertile pastures. This one is pretty barren.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 17, 2016, 12:50:42 PM
In addition to what jasonr said, Trump is a New York businessman whose activities have no doubt been deeply enmeshed with the Jewish community there. There is pretty much no possibility for someone like him to be an anti-Semite and have come this far without tons of people coming out with tales of his anti-Semitism. They haven't, so he isn't. Face it, he's just a jackass who blurts out offensive things. Even when he says gross things about women I almost get the sense that there's a disconnect in his brain there, where he feels totally ok saying those things, but where if asked he would abstractly admit to believing in the good treatment and respect of women and believe it as he explains it. That is partly why I'm hesitant to say he "is" those various bad epithets. In a way his beliefs about those things will matter more than his comportment when it comes to setting policy, because that will dictate which causes he champions.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 17, 2016, 02:17:23 PM
We know that Trump believes that words don’t matter so a person can say racist things, even words that incite racist violence, and still not be a racist. (Personally I disagree)
 
Allowing for the above Trump is probably not a anti-Semite or even a racist as he may just be a person who does not put much value on such distinctions. 

He can hire a racist and anti-Semitic… as long as they ‘win’ for him and I suspect believes his ‘will’ being stronger will prevent anything from rubbing off.

Quote
“Be careful whom you associate with. It is human to imitate the habits of those with whom we interact. We inadvertently adopt their interests, their opinions, their values, and their habit of interpreting events.” Epictetus
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Gaoics79 on November 17, 2016, 02:27:48 PM
For the record rightleft, the evidence that Stephen Bannon is anti semitic (let alone Trump) is paper thin based on what I have seen. I am not even close to pursuaded that Bannon is an anti semite, despite the media's leap to indict him for that (and by implication, Trump)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 17, 2016, 02:50:53 PM
And yet true, verified anti-Semites believe that Bannon's ideology matches theirs.  Which is not surprising.  Bannon himself said that Brietbart is "the platform for the alt-right." (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/08/stephen-bannon-donald-trump-alt-right-breitbart-news)  And one of the spokesmen for the Alt-Right said that Jews were not "European" enough and may not be welcome. (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/alt-right-makes-its-main-stream-debuthttp://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/alt-right-makes-its-main-stream-debut)

The only conclusion I can come to is that Trump is not repulsed by anti-Semitism.  That he will consider their arguments, maybe take their advice.  While he himself may not be anti-Semitic, he certainly seems to hold them in some esteem.

He may, of course, simply want such a person available to gain that different point of view.  But if so, we should expect to see a few dyed-in-the-wool Liberals on his advisory team, too, so he gets their point of view, too. ;)

But I wouldn't bet on it.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Gaoics79 on November 17, 2016, 02:59:29 PM
Lol. Wayward I always assume that when someone makes an argument they put their best argument forward and aren't holding anything back. But I'll just confirm it then - your best argument for Bannon and Trump being anti Semites is that Bannon is a voice if the "alt right", Trump is affiliated with Bannon and someone associated with the alt right said something anti semitic ergo Bannon is an anti semite ergo Trump is an anti semite. That about it?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Gaoics79 on November 17, 2016, 03:04:16 PM
Incidentally Wayward, by your logic I suppose the fact that Trump has a Jewish daughter and a Jewish son in law must be evidence that the alt right can't be antisemitic :)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: DJQuag on November 17, 2016, 07:54:15 PM
Do verified anti Semites believe that the sun rises in the east? Does Bannon? Enquiring minds want to know.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 18, 2016, 08:47:14 AM
i heard an interview with Richard Spencer (alt-right founder) on NPR yesterday.  He sees no harm in people wearing KKK robes or a swastika.  After all, they're just expressing their opinion. He doesn't think people of different races ever really get along, just tolerate each other's presence when they have to.  Nothing wrong with that, either.  As to how the sun rises, flat-earthers might give you an argument about whether it rises in the east for everyone, too, or if everyone should get their own sun.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 18, 2016, 08:51:00 AM
And is this "alt-right" group a formalized society with registered membership? Will you additionally assert the same attributes to one person you claim is in this "group" that appear to be in another?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 18, 2016, 09:04:29 AM
And is this "alt-right" group a formalized society with registered membership? Will you additionally assert the same attributes to one person you claim is in this "group" that appear to be in another?
No, he's the only person who feels the way he does.  Since all attacks on Muslims and blacks are done under false flags, we don't have to worry about that, either.  BTW, I didn't say "group", you did.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 18, 2016, 09:14:28 AM
BTW, I didn't say "group", you did.

That's interesting, because by citing "alt-right founder" you were directly insinuating that this pertained to your previous post. Are you now retracting that and saying your comment about Spencer was a non-sequitor?

And yes, when citing a "founder" one implies a "group".
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 18, 2016, 09:24:26 AM
Quote
when citing a "founder" one implies a "group".

I would argue that point.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 18, 2016, 09:39:03 AM
No, he's the only person who feels the way he does.  Since all attacks on Muslims and blacks are done under false flags, we don't have to worry about that, either.  BTW, I didn't say "group", you did.

Nobody is claiming ALL of the events that happened were "false flag." A LOT of the reported events ARE turning up to be either false reports, or otherwise staged or (deliberately?) misconstrued all the same.

A number of other events ARE also turning out to have other more mundane explanations, and not tied to hate groups or bona-fide racists near as anyone can tell.

There is a difference between many/most and ALL.

Give some of us credit, we know there is a "narrative" that various people would prefer to frame things under, but being skeptical is a healthy thing. That goes for reports coming from all sides, even the ones of supposed Hillary supporters going after alleged Trump voters. (Although those events seem to have better documentation)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 18, 2016, 10:27:14 AM
This has got to be the dumbest media cycle I've ever seen. Almost every story I'm seeing is about what Trump supporters are doing. I don't recall in the past reading about what Bush or Obama supporters did that discredited the politicians they supported, but apparently a dozen random events by idiots discredit Trump out of hand. This isn't even getting into the actual validity of all such reports. But even the insinuation that the actions of a few supposed Trump supporters prove he's going to ruin the country is becoming extremely tiresome. Liberal people on social media are going rabid right now to post anything and everything that furthers this narrative. I get that they hate Trump, but this is a dishonest, brainwashy tactic meant to reverberate around the echo chamber and achieve nothing but frothing at the mouth.

The people Trump appoints to key positions - that's fair game. The things Trump actually does, likewise. But this whole business about 'Trump supporters' is such rubbish.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 18, 2016, 12:10:54 PM
BTW, I didn't say "group", you did.

That's interesting, because by citing "alt-right founder" you were directly insinuating that this pertained to your previous post. Are you now retracting that and saying your comment about Spencer was a non-sequitor?

And yes, when citing a "founder" one implies a "group".
No, when one "cites a founder" the reader infers a group if that is their inclination.  It could be a movement, party, group or club, wot?  It's not a group and doesn't have meetings, but it is a mindset shared by a number of white nationalist, racist and xenophobic people and groups.  FWIW, the KKK was originally founded to defend Protestantism against Catholicism and elected a number of people on that agenda, but those who attacked the religion were also just offering an opinion.

Quote
Nobody is claiming ALL of the events that happened were "false flag." A LOT of the reported events ARE turning up to be either false reports, or otherwise staged or (deliberately?) misconstrued all the same.
I confess that I was being a tad sarcastic, but I would expect Cherry to be nodding in full agreement with the remark.  There are few truths about politics and political action that are universal or absolute.  As TheDrake and Fenring pointed out in another thread, it's both what you say and how you say it that count.  But lies do matter, as well as spreading provably false information.  Michael Flynn (father, as well as son) has done it, but nobody does it better than Trump and the new official White House news outlets, FOX and Breitbart.  If you get your news from either of those places, wipe your screen with a moist towelette after reading to guard against infection.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 18, 2016, 12:47:34 PM
Quote
And yes, when citing a "founder" one implies a "group".
No, when one "cites a founder" the reader infers a group if that is their inclination.  It could be a movement, party, group or club, wot?  It's not a group and doesn't have meetings, but it is a mindset shared by a number of white nationalist, racist and xenophobic people and groups.

A party, group or club are all "groups", as in, organizations. And I don't see how someone can found a 'movement' that is not based in at least an activist group. If a movement comes to exist as a result of or based on someone's example, that is still not what a "founder" is. Ron Paul did not "found" the Tea Party, for example, even though I think a lot of them drew inspiration from his economic ideals and even saw him as a sort of role model for the movement.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 18, 2016, 01:09:53 PM
Quote
A party, group or club are all "groups", as in, organizations. And I don't see how someone can found a 'movement' that is not based in at least an activist group. If a movement comes to exist as a result of or based on someone's example, that is still not what a "founder" is. Ron Paul did not "found" the Tea Party, for example, even though I think a lot of them drew inspiration from his economic ideals and even saw him as a sort of role model for the movement.
Was Bernie Sanders not the founder of a movement?  What group did he found?  Here's a long list (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_social_movements) of other movements that were "founded".  Are they also groups?  My favorite is the "Hippie Movement".
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 18, 2016, 02:21:37 PM
Lol. Wayward I always assume that when someone makes an argument they put their best argument forward and aren't holding anything back. But I'll just confirm it then - your best argument for Bannon and Trump being anti Semites is that Bannon is a voice if the "alt right", Trump is affiliated with Bannon and someone associated with the alt right said something anti semitic ergo Bannon is an anti semite ergo Trump is an anti semite. That about it?

Technically, I never said that Trump was an anti-Semite.  (Review my posts if you don't believe it.)

Although, I'll admit, there was an implication of such... :)

And I won't even go quite so far as to state that Bannon is an anti-Semite, even though he reportedly bad-mouthed "whiny Jewish children" and didn't want his children to school with them.

But it is a fact that he bragged about providing a platform for people who are anti-Semites, and proudly so.  And that's where the concern lies.

Because Bannon is not just an "associate," like someone you might do business with or go to dinner every once in a while.  He's an advisor.

So Donald Trump wants advice from a person who brags about giving a bullhorn to anti-Semites.  He seeks the opinion of a person who supports those who want Jews kicked out of the country.  It makes me wonder, what kind of advice is Donald Trump hoping to get from Bannon that he couldn't get from someone else?

Presidents often defer to the opinions of their staff and advisors.  What decisions do you think Trump might defer to Bannon?  For what questions do you think he wants the advise of Bannon?

Trump may not be anti-Semitic.  But he will be listening closely to someone who has supported anti-Semites in the past. :(
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 18, 2016, 02:33:21 PM
Quote
Almost every story I'm seeing is about what Trump supporters are doing. I don't recall in the past reading about what Bush or Obama supporters did that discredited the politicians they supported, but apparently a dozen random events by idiots discredit Trump out of hand.

The problem is that Trump has said some things that appear to support these supporters.

And, more importantly, that those Trump supporters sincerely believe that Trump does support them.

So when the President says, "Illegal Mexicans are a bunch of murderers and rapists, and we need to deport them all," and the supporters say, "Hey, the President agrees with us that Mexicans are scum," and then supporters start harassing and beating Hispanics, there is a connection.

Sure, the supporters are misinterpreting what Trump said.  But until Trump stands up and tells them to stop, and that these people will be punished (or at least tweets it :) ), it's hard to be sure that Trump is sincerely against it.

Of course, maybe Trump has strongly spoken out against this behavior and the media hasn't emphasized it.  Got any examples? ;)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: rightleft22 on November 18, 2016, 03:31:16 PM
Why are we being so PC about calling people that associate with racists, say racists things enough so that they get the support of acknowledged racists movements a racist?
I thought PC was dead?

If it smells like *censored*e, looks like *censored*e, feels like *censored*e you shouldn’t have to taste it to be able to label it *censored*e.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 18, 2016, 03:50:46 PM
I have to rush now (I'll get the numbers later), but let's baseline the unemployment rate, stock market, annual GDP growth, and budget deficit as of Monday and then predict where we will be in October 2018.

I'd like to hear, particularly from Trump supporters, where you think we will be if our new President-elect is successful by your standards. Feel free to include other measures, such as the number of illegal immigrants in the country, the number of people killed in terrorist attacks on American soil, or any other metrics that you believe would show how President Trump has been successful in the first 21 months in office.

We have Trump supporters in the room?  At last count we were all for Bernie except you and Al Wessex who were for Hillary.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 18, 2016, 04:01:55 PM
Yes, we know.  Trump is not anti-Jewish.  He just appoints an advisor (http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/why-its-fair-and-necessary-call-trumps-chief-strategist-stephen-bannon-white-nationalist) who happens to be closely aligned with anti-Semites (http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/14/politics/white-nationalists-on-bannon/index.html).

Quote
"You have an individual, Mr. Bannon, who's basically creating the ideological aspects of where we're going," added [David] Duke. "And ideology ultimately is the most important aspect of any government."

And you wonder why people think Trump's election may make bigots think they are acceptable and can do what they want?


That seems to be a major concern for quite a number of people that I used to respect.  Amid issues of economic depression, world war, torture, nuclear proliferation, climate change, Zika, and resurgent hate crimes, what really makes this group of otherwise intelligent people poo their pants and howl at the moon in rage is the idea that a few bigots might imagine themselves to be "acceptable."
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 18, 2016, 04:27:00 PM
For the record, I was for Trump even before Ann Coultur.

He was the only one who said anything about taking a look at birthright citizenship. He got out in front about deporting people here illegally before anyone else, though he's backpedaling a bit now. He was the only one serious about securing the border and putting his reputation on the line if it doesn't get done.

All of that is, of course, the very definition of racism. Just being for law and order is no excuse. In fact, being for law and order is actually just more code for being racist because we all know the laws affect some people more than others as the prison population proves. And of course if someone's a racist then they are an anti-Semite and anti-gay as well. Almost certainly misogynist to boot. Can't have one without the others.

For the record, Trump really is misogynist. I don't think he's the rest of it though.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 18, 2016, 04:45:05 PM
My understanding is that his business record includes some explicitly no black renters policies.

As for antisemitism, I think he's intentionally hinted to it just to distract the left and let them make fools of themselves as they did with Mel Gibson's movie.  Political correctness enforcers run amok have been Trump's most effective promoters.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 18, 2016, 05:23:51 PM
My understanding is that his business record includes some explicitly no black renters policies.

As for antisemitism, I think he's intentionally hinted to it just to distract the left and let them make fools of themselves as they did with Mel Gibson's movie.  Political correctness enforcers run amok have been Trump's most effective promoters.
Interesting that by asserting that Trump is not anti-semitic because Gibson is not anti-semitic, that that settles it.  Except that I believe that Gibson *was* and perhaps still *is* anti-semitic, though he claims that he regrets many of his past remarks.  Who can really know?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 18, 2016, 05:44:41 PM
Quote
Amid issues of economic depression, world war, torture, nuclear proliferation, climate change, Zika, and resurgent hate crimes, what really makes this group of otherwise intelligent people poo their pants and howl at the moon in rage is the idea that a few bigots might imagine themselves to be "acceptable."

Because Trump is a blowhard and a bully and  bullheaded, and no one know what he will do.  We all have our guesses, and we may all believe we know, but he is so impulsive we really don't. :(

So when someone who is sympathetic to bigots has his ear, that person may suggest something to Trump and Trump might go for it.  Like house-to-house searches for illegal aliens.  Interment camps for muslims.  Declaring illegal immigrants have no Constitutional protections because they are not citizens.  Stupid, unconstitutional stuff like that.  Sure, the courts will shut him down as soon as they can, but who knows how much damage he could do before he is forced to stop.  And he believes all sorts of stupid stuff, like "clean coal."  From what we've seen, convincing him of something that is obviously untrue (birtherism) ain't that hard.

So when he had an advisor who has no problem publishing arguments that are untrue and bigoted--how far will it be before some of those arguments reaches Trump's ear, and he acts on them?  :'(

Trump strikes me as a man who is mainly concerned with business and making money for himself.  That is probably his main goal for his Presidency.  But he is certainly not concerned with racial or religious equality.  And I don't see it being a very big step for him to throw those American values under the bus if he can achieve his primary goals.  Especially if he has some advisors who find those concerns equally irrelevant.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 18, 2016, 05:52:09 PM
everything that you just said is reasonably defensible, Wayward. with one howling exception.  The word "because" prefacing it all.   There is no causal connection between my observation and your reply. None that I can see.

Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 21, 2016, 11:17:04 AM
everything that you just said is reasonably defensible, Wayward. with one howling exception.  The word "because" prefacing it all.   There is no causal connection between my observation and your reply. None that I can see.

Are you saying, Pete, that racial equality and civil rights are not on the same level as economic depression, world war, the Zika virus and climate change?  (Obviously, resurgent hate crimes are related, since empowered bigots who think they are now "acceptable" are more likely to commit such crimes.)  That they are so far less important that we should ignore any loss of these rights, since we have more pressing problems to address?  ???

If that is what you are saying, then, in one sense, you are right.  I would much rather lose civil rights than to have climate keep rising, or a nuclear war, or every pregnant woman give birth to a Zika baby.  These are extremely serious problems that must be addressed.

But in another sense, you can't be more wrong.  Because it isn't an either/or situation.  We should be worried about climate change, world war, the Zika virus, economic depression AND racial equality and loss of civil rights.  Of an Administration that thinks that racial equality is simply a thing that doesn't exist and it doesn't need to worry about.  Because there are those who do think about it and are trying to make the situation worse, trying to make sure their group retains all the advantages and that no other group has them.  And if the government doesn't oppose them, or worse, helps them, then this whole country will be worse off in many ways. 

We will be more divided, more hostile to each other, and less united in addressing other concerns, like climate change, preventing world wars, and making our economy stronger.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 11:26:05 AM
Look back at what you said "because" to.

Loss of civil rights is not co terminous with the spectre of bigots imagining themselves "acceptable."
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 21, 2016, 11:56:52 AM
everything that you just said is reasonably defensible, Wayward. with one howling exception.  The word "because" prefacing it all.   There is no causal connection between my observation and your reply. None that I can see.

Are you saying, Pete, that racial equality and civil rights are not on the same level as economic depression, world war, the Zika virus and climate change?  (Obviously, resurgent hate crimes are related, since empowered bigots who think they are now "acceptable" are more likely to commit such crimes.)  That they are so far less important that we should ignore any loss of these rights, since we have more pressing problems to address?  ??

Just which "civil rights" are we talking about losing here in all of this?

Are we talking about the "right to buy homosexual wedding cakes" or freedom of association/religion?

Or are talking about rights that are already protected under criminal law? You know, the right to not be physically assaulted. The right not to be killed by homicidal(/&homophobic/&racist)maniacs. And so forth?

I'm pretty sure the full range of the criminal codes are going to be more stringently enforced under Trump then they were under Obama.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 21, 2016, 01:52:28 PM
Quote
Look back at what you said "because" to.

Loss of civil rights is not co terminous with the spectre of bigots imagining themselves "acceptable."

Quote
Just which "civil rights" are we talking about losing here in all of this?

Are we talking about the "right to buy homosexual wedding cakes" or freedom of association/religion?

Or are talking about rights that are already protected under criminal law? You know, the right to not be physically assaulted. The right not to be killed by homicidal(/&homophobic/&racist)maniacs. And so forth?

How about the right not to discriminated against based on race, religion, sex or sexual orientation?

How long before someone says that they don't need to rent to a person, sell to a person, or allow in a public place a person because they are of the wrong race, religion, sex or sexual orientation and there are "separate but equal" (i.e. other) facilities they can use?  That the hovel down the street is just as good as the nice apartment they are renting?

While I respect a person's religious beliefs, just how different is not selling them a cake from not selling them food, or renting them a house, or allowing them in their schools?

What makes you think Jeff Sessions is going to vigorously defend those who are discriminated against because of race or religion?  And if he doesn't do so, what makes you think President Trump is going to order him to do so?

Or is it more likely that they will turn a blind eye to these things, say it is the individual right of the owners to discriminate against anyone they want, and if the person doesn't like it, they go somewhere else--like Africa? ;) 

Quote
I'm pretty sure the full range of the criminal codes are going to be more stringently enforced under Trump then they were under Obama.

Based on what, Daemon?  Because he wants the police to crack down on protesters--excuse me, "rioters," because out of 200 people walking peacefully, one or two broke the law?

Do you think he will crack down on armed assailants taking over government property, like in Oregon?  Or flagrantly ignoring Federal law on land use of Federal property?  Or using water cannons to break up protesters in the sub-freezing weather in North Dakota?  Or would you expect him to being even more lax than Obama?

I expect him to be more "law and order" for crimes that are normally enforced (such as those against the poor and minorities), but less enforcement against those that are less enforced (such as those against the rich and those in power).

And, of course, I expect at least one or two in Trump's Administration being convicted of crimes themselves.  Which, I suppose, means he will enforce crimes more than Obama, although he will be one of those vigorously defending them. :)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 02:27:34 PM
Just love arguments that misstate the facts.

"While I respect a person's religious beliefs, just how different is not selling them a cake from not selling them food, or renting them a house, or allowing them in their schools"

"Selling a cake,",yes.  Custom making a cake otoh steps on Freedom of the Press and Freedom of speech as well as freedom of religion.

Would you require a jewish cake maker to write stuff on a wedding cake that celebrates the "clean" unuon of two "pure-blood Aryans"?

Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Wayward Son on November 21, 2016, 03:36:47 PM
So their objection to making the cake was only the lettering of the cake?  ???

So if the cake had no writing on it, you believe that they would be in the wrong?

It's a fine line between not joining in with someone else's morality and trying to force them to adhere to yours.  This is pretty close to that line.

(BTW, I myself would have argued Freedom of Association for the couple.)

But please be more explicit on how different it is from selling someone a cake with some writing on it, and refusing to sell them the cake itself, and refusing to sell them the eggs and flour to bake a cake?  All of them have the same effect--to try to prevent what they consider immoral behavior based on religion.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 21, 2016, 03:49:00 PM
But please be more explicit on how different it is from selling someone a cake with some writing on it, and refusing to sell them the cake itself, and refusing to sell them the eggs and flour to bake a cake?  All of them have the same effect--to try to prevent what they consider immoral behavior based on religion.

Do recall that the issue wasn't willingness to sell, but willingness to create a custom product. Within that context I don't think it would make all that much of a difference whether the Jewish baker had been asked to bake a cake for Nazis with writing or without writing. For some curious reason the specificity of the issue always gets system restored back to "won't sell a cake" whenever someone dredges up the topic again. To date I don't think I've heard of a case falling under this recent 'religious freedoms' issue where a merchant refused to sell a pre-made product to someone based on their beliefs/orientation/race.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: DonaldD on November 21, 2016, 05:07:29 PM
For some curious reason the specificity of the issue always gets system restored back to "won't sell a cake" whenever someone dredges up the topic again. To date I don't think I've heard of a case falling under this recent 'religious freedoms' issue where a merchant refused to sell a pre-made product to someone based on their beliefs/orientation/race.
http://www.npr.org/2016/11/15/502111408/washington-state-court-case-religious-liberty-versus-anti-discrimination

https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/catholic-couple-fined-13000-for-refusing-to-host-same-sex-wedding-at-their

http://www.christianpost.com/news/calif-caterer-refuses-to-do-gay-wedding-based-on-christian-beliefs-i-hope-you-appreciate-my-honesty-112281/

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/659484/Mississippi-law-refuse-service-gay-couples
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 21, 2016, 05:28:07 PM
Quote
http://www.npr.org/2016/11/15/502111408/washington-state-court-case-religious-liberty-versus-anti-discrimination

he asked the couple's long-time florist, Arlene's Flowers, to do arrangements for their upcoming wedding.

Quote
Quote
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/catholic-couple-fined-13000-for-refusing-to-host-same-sex-wedding-at-their

The New York State Division of Human Rights (DHR) has ruled that the Roman Catholic owners of an Albany-area farm violated the civil rights of a lesbian couple when they declined to host the couple’s same-sex “marriage” ceremony in 2012.

Quote
Quote
http://www.christianpost.com/news/calif-caterer-refuses-to-do-gay-wedding-based-on-christian-beliefs-i-hope-you-appreciate-my-honesty-112281/

Kama Kaina and Mathew Rivera, a same-sex couple of four years, reportedly contacted Janet Zimmerman Catering back in November to request her services at their upcoming gay marriage ceremony in Big Bear, Calif. in June 2014.
Read more at http://www.christianpost.com/news/calif-caterer-refuses-to-do-gay-wedding-based-on-christian-beliefs-i-hope-you-appreciate-my-honesty-112281/#yrKagY5O6l48Me5o.99

Quote
Quote
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/659484/Mississippi-law-refuse-service-gay-couples

Republican Governor Phil Bryant argued the law is targeted at preventing government interference "in the lives of the people".

It is not only shops and services who are now allowed to refuse to serve gay couples, but the law also protects business who refuse to provide goods, services or facilities for gay weddings due to religious or moral objections.

The first three are irrelevant to my point since they consist either of providing services or hosting. The issue has always been about whether a person can be compelled to provide a service; this is nothing new. WS, above, was mischaracterizing the issue as being about refusal to sell goods.

The last link, however, while not pertaining to a case (which was what my post was about) is indeed about a law that would permit refusal of service, including selling of goods. However I don't know anything about how that law is intended to be implemented, and what standards of "religious reasons" can be used as the basis for refusal. I doubt it is a carte blanche to refuse anything to anyone on any pretext; although if that is actually what it is it will probably be struck down. Again, so far I've not heard of a case of a vendor refusing to sell pre-made goods to people for this kind of reason. It's always been about requesting services from people who don't want to provide that service.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDrake on November 21, 2016, 06:22:26 PM
I'm always exceedingly torn by the "bake a cake" argument. As a person who likes the "rational consumer" model of economics, these things are not really supposed to persist. If Cake King refuses to bake a gay cake, then this should spur competition to capitalize on the opportunity. They open just down the street, get tons of great press, and a solid advantage (assuming that non-bigots outnumber bigots in the area). Cake King gets demolished on social media, ratings systems, and eventually sees that this was a poor economic decision. To preserve the integrity of their views, they hire a part time guy to write "Congrats Adam and Steve" on the cake and everyone wins.

Unfortunately it just doesn't seem to work out that way in real life. So then we're left with lawsuits and other mechanisms by the force of a gun to remedy the situation. I don't have a "so therefore" kind of conclusion or summary. I think it isn't easy, however. I also think that deciding who is a protected group and who is not tends to be a little problematic. If the couple seeking a wedding cake run a haberdashery and the bakers come into the shop, can they refuse service? Can you refuse service to a person wearing a Donald Trump hat? What if its a Hijab instead?

Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 07:47:44 PM
So their objection to making the cake was only the lettering of the cake?  ???

So if the cake had no writing on it, you believe that they would be in the wrong?

If it's a pre-designed cake that baker has made for any other couple, then baker is stuck without an argument.

But no, it's not just writing   Nor would writing of "congratulations" suffice to give baker right to say no.

Any artistic/creative effort forced on baker against his political religious or even semantic beliefs, violates freedom of speech and of the press.  A baker should be able to take Jan 20 off from work, and absolutely refuse to decorate a cake with "happy birthday Adolf Hitler" regardless of said baker's religion or ethnicity. It putting pictures or symbols on the cake to communicate the same.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 21, 2016, 08:30:48 PM
How is that different from a meal that is cooked to order at a restaurant?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 09:18:09 PM
How is that different from a meal that is cooked to order at a restaurant?

If you show up at a vegan/kosher/halal restaurant, order a veggie burger, then take some bacon out of your pocket and eat it at the table, you very likely may be asked to leave.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 21, 2016, 09:28:06 PM
What if my special friend and I gaily walk into a local diner and we ask to split an order for a burger rare with blue cheese, jalapenos and a dab of saffron mayonnaise?  If they don't have it they don't have it, but if they can make it and refuse while the het hunk at the next table orders scrambled eggs with crab meat and bechamel sauce and they run out to get the ingredients and he gets it, I think I should be able to win a lawsuit on Constitutional grounds.  I know where to get that kind of burger locally, but I'm not sure everyone would have the success I would.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on November 21, 2016, 09:42:50 PM
Oh, we've gotten to hypotheticals now?

I didn't want to bring this up because of the painful memories but what if you work legally as a male prostitute in Nevada and you only provide your services to women while refusing gay men?

Should that be illegal under federal law?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 21, 2016, 09:54:43 PM
Depends on what you think the meaning and purpose of anti-discrimination laws are meant to be.  Why do you think my hypothetical doesn't apply?  I need to know if everyone else's rights are comparable to yours.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 10:06:57 PM
What if my special friend and I gaily walk into a local diner and we ask to split an order for a burger rare with blue cheese, jalapenos and a dab of saffron mayonnaise?  If they don't have it they don't have it, but if they can make it and refuse while the het hunk at the next table orders scrambled eggs with crab meat and bechamel sauce and they run out to get the ingredients and he gets it, I think I should be able to win a lawsuit on Constitutional grounds. 

I should hope not.  Are those the parrochial Michigan stereotypes for what gay people eat?  I grew up in Europe and am startled that Saffron is considered gay in your neck of the woods.  Also, sharing a burger between two people isn't constitutionally protected.

Incidentally, I was banned from one bar for expressing my opinion that Barack Obama was not "the Antichrist".and not the Messiah either, and it never occurred to me that I had legal recourse.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 10:32:53 PM
Al, I suspect that most gay cooks in this world would agree with me that your hypo trods on a cook's artistic license in his or her own kitchen.  I think that hypo is actually much weaker on the facts for your case, than the wedding cake one that we were discussing

Still, this is a real conversation and you and the rest of us are really engaging the issues with these sample facts so that's cool.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 11:06:53 PM
Also, proceeding on another axis of sexual deviation from "norm", does a wedding photographer get sued for refusing to photograph the collaring and stripping of a bride at a BDSM themed ceremony?


I think it's a lot easier to maintain the lines where they have been sine Heart of Atlanta and such cases, I.e. housing hotels and generic products cannot be sold in a discriminatory way, but discrimination laws cannot trample on artistic freedom, freedom of speech or of religious practice (including what is done with a religious facility or religious service.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 21, 2016, 11:18:43 PM
Cherry, in theory, a Nevada legal prostitute is a contract employee and the brothels are supposed to be banned from advertising across county lines.  So they are told at least that they can discriminate as they please.  A legal prostitute is told that she or he has the right to discriminate by race, sex, or whatever.  So the gqblts &etcs (apparently new letters have migrated to the string) are demanding legal entitlements that have never applied to racial discrimination.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: AI Wessex on November 22, 2016, 06:22:28 AM
Pete, if my hypothetical is (intentionally) absurd, how is it different from the cake scenario?  Maybe the restaurant would have run out to get saffron if they didn't know I was gay, as they would be willing to go get nutmeg for the bechamel sauce for the guy groping his girlfriend at the next table.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 24, 2016, 08:55:16 AM
So the gqblts &etcs (apparently new letters have migrated to the string) are demanding legal entitlements that have never applied to racial discrimination.

Evidently, near as I can tell, it is "LGBTQI+" now, but that was last week according to someone else, and I don't know how current he was on their lingo. (Lesbian/Gay/Bisexual/Trangendered/Queer/Intersexed/"and others")
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 24, 2016, 09:03:24 AM
Also, proceeding on another axis of sexual deviation from "norm", does a wedding photographer get sued for refusing to photograph the collaring and stripping of a bride at a BDSM themed ceremony?

I think a Wedding Photographer has already been subjected to a legal challenge after refusing to photograph a Gay Wedding, citing "artistic expression" as well as freedom of religion. Since the photographer did not believe in, or support gay marriage on religious grounds. The photographer felt, "as an Artist" that (s)he would "be unable to provide satisfactory (artistic) service" and thus declined.

The gay couple filed suit.

I guess if I was the photographer I would have reiterated the comment about not be enamored with the shoot, get them to sign a document acknowledging such, and then created one of the most epicly bad wedding photo sets ever.... And make sure it's done in a subtle enough way they can't prove in court that it was malicious.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 24, 2016, 11:45:50 AM
Same question as my noble predecessor AI Wessex asked, chefs are artists of a different sort, but not much different from a pastry/cake chef.  Can they refuse to serve a gay customer if s/he requests to leave the mushrooms out of the risotto?  Note this is different from a pharmacist refusing to sell a commodity to a customer, which should never be allowed to happen.  Odd that recent court tests rule in favor of the pharmacist and against the pastry chef.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 24, 2016, 02:34:43 PM
While cooking may be an "art" cooking a previously set menu is not "art" or at least, it isn't "original art." Even if the recipe in question was their own creation. While the Chef may have a Freedom of Association/Religion claim they could assert, as far as their service is concerned, it revolves around their ability to perform a specified task in accordance with specified instructions.

Of course, that being said, there is cooking the food, and then there is presenting the food. Much in line with the photographer above, and why I'd personally not push to get a service provider to render services they've told me they don't want to provide me. After all, taking pictures is just point and shoot right? Well, there is a bit of difference between a professional photo and an amateur one, using the right exposure settings(with the right equipment), getting ideal focal lengths for what is being pictured, creating or otherwise working with existing lighting conditions, "framing the picture" and so on. Any one of those things, when just a little bit off, can turn a great picture into just a good one(or "lucking into" the reverse in the case of a amateur getting a great photo instead of just a good one).

So the Chef could perfectly select the ingredients, and perfectly cook the foods, but when it comes time to present the finished product, he half-asses the presentation, or deliberately screws with it. So while the food may otherwise be cooked to perfection, it looks like complete s___. Which is where a LOT of the artistry of cooking happens, but if you've told them that their personal views as an artist don't matter, well....

But this also goes back their claim as both professionals and artists, they probably take great pride in their work, and they don't to present anybody with what they think would be a sub-par product. So when they say they don't think they'd be able to perform to their usual standard on a given project or task, it's probably a good idea to heed the warning and let them reject the work.

Which takes us back to the bakery, cooking a cake doesn't take a lot of artistry(robots can, and now do, often bake cakes), but decorating it with original work does involve a human, and "Artistic" touch. If you want a cake, by all means buy a cake. If you want original work done, once again, you probably should avoid the "artist" who is warning you that they "don't think they'd be able to perform to the usual standard" in regards to meeting your request.

Heck I have a sister that used to decorate cakes for a grocery store at one point, its a skill she retains decades later and still uses on occasion. The skill isn't THAT rare, every grocery store in the country probably trains 1 to 6 people a year in how to do so. She also often does skip the "bake the cake" step by opting to get one from a store, and then providing the customization herself.

The internet is a wonderful thing these days, finding a cake decorator, rather than someone to bake the cake and decorate it, is probably far easier today than any time in history. So yes, on the bakery, the breakdown becomes: Yes, they have the right to refuse to decorate a cake in certain specified ways. No, they do not have right to simply refuse to sell a cake on any grounds other than inability of the customer to pay for it, or other more specific causes that are widely accepted reasons for refusing service. (No shirt, no shoes, no service; walking in while waving a gun around, etc)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 24, 2016, 02:38:24 PM
Quote
While cooking may be an "art" cooking a previously set menu is not "art" or at least, it isn't "original art." Even if the recipe in question was their own creation. While the Chef may have a Freedom of Association/Religion claim they could assert, as far as their service is concerned, it revolves around their ability to perform a specified task in accordance with specified instructions.
I can't see how "cooking" is different from baking.  Both use recipes and add individual touches.  I've been to cake shops and been shown a gallery of cake sizes and shapes, as well as to restaurants and had the waiter describe the specials of the day.  Either both are art or neither is.  Hold the mushrooms and the jimmies, please.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 24, 2016, 02:54:51 PM
I can't see how "cooking" is different from baking.  Both use recipes and add individual touches.  I've been to cake shops and been shown a gallery of cake sizes and shapes, as well as to restaurants and had the waiter describe the specials of the day.  Either both are art or neither is.  Hold the mushrooms and the jimmies, please.

There are chef's out there that are extremely particular about how, and what they'll prepare. They WILL take the suggestion cook to things a certain (different) way as a personal insult to them, or an insult to the food, if not both. The most immediate example would be going to 5 star chef, ordering an extremely high tier of steak, and asking them to cook it until its "well done." Best case, if you're there to see it, they're probably going to grimace, worst case you're going to get yelled at and possibly have things thrown at you or even get thrown out.

There is cooking, and then there is cooking, and do not confuse the two. Kind of like there are cars, and then there are cars. If you can't tell the difference between a Ford Pinto and an Ashton Martin DB11, there's not much that can be done for you.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 24, 2016, 03:04:22 PM
I think what Al...sorry, Kasandra (with one S) is getting at is "where is the line" dividing services offered from goods sold. Of course, I'm sure this line of reasoning is meant to demonstrate that since the line may be undefined at present that therefore there should be no line and therefore no religious grounds to decline to offer services.

Putting aside that implied line, I do think some decisions would have to be made regarding what is a 'special' or 'custom' service versus what is the rendering of a good. Buying frozen food at a grocery store may require the cashier to render the 'service' of cashing out the order, and yet we are hopefully not discussing the case of whether a cashier should be able to refuse to cash out an order for someone based on their sexual orientation. Almost all retail sales require some sort of 'service' in order to process the order, so I think we can discount all of these that involve buying standard products. The word "standard" is, I think, the important qualifier here, as certain businesses, such as restaurants, do offer an array of standard products; i.e. the menu. It is not even debatable that these products are offered - also as standard - with certain variations when possible. For instance, if someone allergic to peppers orders their pasta sans peppers, it is not controversial that it will be almost automatic that the chef will comply. The exceptional case would be one where a chef will not comply with customer requests of this type, and such cases almost should be the ones where a blanket rule is stated, such as we will sometimes see on a menu in the form of "no substitutions". So yes, a restaurant making a dish without one of the ingredients based on customer request is not a 'custom' or 'special' service, but is a standard good offered. It's more or less the equivalent of taking in your dry cleaning and asking them not to use bleach on a white shirt. It's a specification, but not a custom service.

The different case could be where a person goes into a restaurant and tries to order something not on the menu, knowing it's within the technical capability of the chef. In such a case the request can be honored or rejected, and this type of situation I'd say may be more similar to a baker being asked to bake a custom cake. It's imperfect, since the restaurant isn't in the business of offering dishes made up by the customers, but still it's the one situation in a restaurant where I could see it being a special service.

Rather than worry about who believes what in order to define what can and can't be refused, would it not merely be simpler to suggest that anyone can refuse special services for any reason? Even if this means including bad reasons in there (racism, sexism, etc.) is that perhaps not preferable to instituting a type of slavery where a customer can command a person to do a thing and they must do it?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 24, 2016, 03:15:10 PM
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I think what Al...sorry, Kasandra (with one S) is getting at is "where is the line" dividing services offered from goods sold. Of course, I'm sure this line of reasoning is meant to demonstrate that since the line may be undefined at present that therefore there should be no line and therefore no religious grounds to decline to offer services.
That misses the point: If there is a line, show it.  If there's no line, don't arbitrarily draw one separating things based on a personal preference.

Quote
The different case could be where a person goes into a restaurant and tries to order something not on the menu, knowing it's within the technical capability of the chef. In such a case the request can be honored or rejected, and this type of situation I'd say may be more similar to a baker being asked to bake a custom cake. It's imperfect, since the restaurant isn't in the business of offering dishes made up by the customers, but still it's the one situation in a restaurant where I could see it being a special service.
Again, that misses the point: Does the bakery sell a cake with writing on it that says "Congratulations, Tom and Harry!"?  Does the baker buy the cake and keep in the storeroom until someone comes along to order it?  I can analogize every step in the cake baking process with a chef cooking a meal to order. They both start with a recipe and ingredients and the person who orders asks for personalized or special touches.  If a baker can discriminate because of sexual orientation, so can a chef.  OTOH, someone providing a service would correspond more to the waiter or order taker at the bakery. You shouldn't expect them to impose their own religious or moral view on both the company/store they work for and the customer.  The same goes for a pharmacist or a county clerk in Kentucky or elsewhere.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 24, 2016, 03:29:46 PM
OTOH, someone providing a service would correspond more to the waiter or order taker at the bakery. You shouldn't expect them to impose their own religious or moral view on both the company/store they work for and the customer.  The same goes for a pharmacist or a county clerk in Kentucky or elsewhere.

Well I did make the distinction between a standard service and a custom one. A waiter takes all orders; that's his job. If a baker only makes standard products (like all the loaves, desserts, etc. you see in a typical bakery) then there's no issue. But if part or all of the baker's business involves making custom products, then yes, I do think that's different from other kinds of services.

That being said I agree with you that someone providing an incidental service (such as a waiter, cashier, clerk, etc.) should have no business imposing their personal beliefs on a customer unless they are merely enforcing a rule passed down by the establishment. If the owner is also the waiter then that changes things somewhat, but even so that merely reverts the conversation back to whether a standard or custom service is being offered.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 24, 2016, 11:49:43 PM
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I think what Al...sorry, Kasandra (with one S) is getting at is "where is the line" dividing services offered from goods sold. Of course, I'm sure this line of reasoning is meant to demonstrate that since the line may be undefined at present that therefore there should be no line and therefore no religious grounds to decline to offer services.
That misses the point: If there is a line, show it.  If there's no line, don't arbitrarily draw one separating things based on a personal preference.

Quote
The different case could be where a person goes into a restaurant and tries to order something not on the menu, knowing it's within the technical capability of the chef. In such a case the request can be honored or rejected, and this type of situation I'd say may be more similar to a baker being asked to bake a custom cake. It's imperfect, since the restaurant isn't in the business of offering dishes made up by the customers, but still it's the one situation in a restaurant where I could see it being a special service.
Again, that misses the point: Does the bakery sell a cake with writing on it that says "Congratulations, Tom and Harry!"? 

The line is Assent, Kasandra.  I cannot force my religion on you, not can you use antidiscrimination law to humiliate and impoverish people of a religion you dispose, just because they won't bow to your tin god. 

If what they call marriage is sacred, then assenting to another definition of marriage may blaspheme their religion.  Consider the bureaucrat who refused to personally sign a same sex marriage certificate, but approved a subordinate to validate it. What's the problem here?  There's no fundamental right to force people to force a Jewish food critic to approve a bacon cheeseburger.  These lawsuits are vindictive maliciousand opportunistic. In most cases the plaintiffs never genuinely wanted the service from that individual.  Please. You really think there were no gay friendly photographers in town?

The Heart of Atlanta case responded to a fact set where  lack Americans slept in cars with their kids while traveling because no inn would take them.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 24, 2016, 11:54:38 PM
Quote
Rather than worry about who believes what in order to define what can and can't be refused, would it not merely be simpler to suggest that anyone can refuse special services for any reason? Even if this means including bad reasons in there (racism, sexism, etc.) is that perhaps not preferable to instituting a type of slavery where a customer can command a person to do a thing and they must do it?

Well said and agreed, provided more clarification of special services.  Legal prostitution, where it exists, should work that way.  I think a fertility medicine should work the same way. No one should be forced against his or her will to help another make babies.  The alternative is court-ordered rape like in Pakistan.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 27, 2016, 08:39:38 AM
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If what they call marriage is sacred, then assenting to another definition of marriage may blaspheme their religion.  Consider the bureaucrat who refused to personally sign a same sex marriage certificate, but approved a subordinate to validate it. What's the problem here?  There's no fundamental right to force people to force a Jewish food critic to approve a bacon cheeseburger.  These lawsuits are vindictive maliciousand opportunistic. In most cases the plaintiffs never genuinely wanted the service from that individual.  Please. You really think there were no gay friendly photographers in town?
There is much to disagree with in every sentence.

Thus (the bolded part), any service can be denied to anyone for any reason, because somewhere somebody will be offended or their religion blasphemed by almost anything you can think of. 

The bureaucrat in Kentucky refused to let anyone in her office sign the marriage license, even though she was a public servant.  By that token the police don't have to help stop a Muslim from being mugged.

The food critic isn't hired by the restaurant, but chooses where to eat.  If s/he works for a newspaper it's between them to decide what the critic's territory includes.

What about the cases where the plaintiffs genuinely did want the service?  If gay people should look for gay-friendly photographers, should black people look for black-friendly restaurants?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 27, 2016, 08:45:43 AM
What about the cases where the plaintiffs genuinely did want the service?  If gay people should look for gay-friendly photographers, should black people look for black-friendly restaurants?

You mean they don't already tend towards doing this? Granted, it's something of a learned trait, but it certainly is a thing that is out there. Or else I'm just imagining that there has been an openly "Gay Bar" operating in my overwhelmingly Mormon hometown since the late 1990's.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 27, 2016, 09:06:30 AM
What about the cases where the plaintiffs genuinely did want the service?  If gay people should look for gay-friendly photographers, should black people look for black-friendly restaurants?

You mean they don't already tend towards doing this? Granted, it's something of a learned trait, but it certainly is a thing that is out there. Or else I'm just imagining that there has been an openly "Gay Bar" operating in my overwhelmingly Mormon hometown since the late 1990's.
Do they do that because they won't be served at other bars, or is it because that's where their friends tend to hang out?  I have a favorite bar that I didn't pick because I wasn't welcome elsewhere.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 27, 2016, 09:34:01 AM
What about the cases where the plaintiffs genuinely did want the service?  If gay people should look for gay-friendly photographers, should black people look for black-friendly restaurants?

You mean they don't already tend towards doing this? Granted, it's something of a learned trait, but it certainly is a thing that is out there. Or else I'm just imagining that there has been an openly "Gay Bar" operating in my overwhelmingly Mormon hometown since the late 1990's.
Do they do that because they won't be served at other bars, or is it because that's where their friends tend to hang out?  I have a favorite bar that I didn't pick because I wasn't welcome elsewhere.

I think it's a little bit of everything honestly. People go and do things to "destress" which means they'll preferentially go to "safe spaces" for lack of a better term(and ignoring other more recent usages) to do so.  Which means Gays will tend to congregate at venues they KNOW as being "Gay Friendly" over others that may be ambiguous at best, or overtly hostile at worst. This also ignores the nature and "quality" of the patrons that a particular venue attracts.

While not one for the bar scene myself(I don't drink), I understand the local "gay bar" back home had a LOT of straight customers as well, as they much preferred "the atmosphere" there over the other more limited local options. (Being an overwhelmingly Mormon community, the Bar scene is rather limited, as most of the population doesn't drink)

That being said, my time in the Navy left me rather jaded on this front, I went in with rather egalitarian ideas about race relations. Then I met reality. People tend to congregate around that which they are familiar and comfortable with. Which means they tend to congregate around people with comparable backgrounds to their own.

And sadly, for most minority groups, that means that skin color is a pretty significant indicator as to "what is your background" so pick a particular ethnic group that any kind of substantial number on board ship(more than 3 or 4), and you'd find that people in that ethnic group would tend to spend most of their time "hanging out" with members of their own ethnicity.

The only real exception to that was the whites, but I think that has a lot to do with the rather wide ranging variability in the backgrounds to be found among White Americans in particular. The other thing in play there is likely to be some of the social engineering that has been going on since the 1960's in terms of drilling it into the minds of white people in particular, that they need to be more open and accepting of people with different skin colors and cultural backgrounds. Reverse racism is a thing, I've experienced it personally, luckily not in a professional context for me. I've seen other racial minorities discriminate against other racial minorities, and the list goes on and on.

It all ultimately boils down to tribalism(/factionalism) in one form or another, whatever the basis of "tribal(faction) identification" may be.

The Gays go to "Gay Bars" because they're known to be reasonably safe for them, and they know they'll find people there who likely have comparable backgrounds to their own, or are otherwise likely to be sympathetic to their situation. (More/better shoulders to cry on while drunk) So in many areas it has nothing to do with the service (not) being offered to them in those venues, it has to do with other "intangibles" instead. Likewise for minorities preferring their respective "ethnic" venues over the ones that "the White People" are going to.

The homophobes and the racists/bigots obviously provide their own "special" kind of negative reinforcement of their preference towards staying away from the standard "(straight/) white" venues, and that is something that does need further curtailment, particularly when it's happening against the wishes of the business owner/management. But even absent such abuses, the natural tendency is going to be for "like to find like" and for them to build their own little communities around whatever their major focus happens to be, be it on racial lines, sexual preferences, other special (medical) circumstances, religious reasons, or simply political preferences. (I recently had a (conservative) family member move to Texas to escape the "liberal madness" in California after getting a job offer there that made the move worthwhile... Of course they moved to Austin, which probably isn't an improvement for them, but anyhow)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 27, 2016, 10:54:28 AM
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I think it's a little bit of everything honestly.
Most likely (and your comments are good), but this discussion is about needing to go elsewhere because service was refused.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 27, 2016, 11:17:06 AM
Code: [Select]
Thus (the bolded part), any service can be denied to anyone for any reason, because somewhere somebody will be offended or their religion blasphemed by almost anything you can think of.

Straw man or you're disagreeing before you have thought it through. You have an absolute right to blaspheme my religion.  I simply ask you to not use color of law to try to coerce me to blaspheme my own religion, absent national security reasons. No problem making persons who cross the border piss on statues of Baghdadi and Khomeini, since those who regard those monsters as holy men pose in imminent physical threat to national security.  Otoh notices are saved by your insistence that I piss on Christ.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 27, 2016, 11:56:21 AM
^^^ OYOH NO LIVES are saved by ....

Apologies for the auto-correct/autodestruct snafu
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 27, 2016, 12:36:19 PM
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The Gays go to "Gay Bars" because they're known to be reasonably safe for them

Gosh, no. The most dangerous homophobes target folks near or in gay bars.

The biggest gay bars provide a different culture partly descended from the 1920s speakeasy culture. So straight people attracted to that culture hang out there too.  When I went to my (gay) boss' birthday party. a greater number of female prostitutes solicited me than ever did in any other Vegas dance establishment. I infer from that that there a lot of straight guys that go there.

 On the other side of the Spectrum are hookup bars with obvious names like "Cruising" and "The Back Door".  (Actual names of two places near my old house in Vegas.). One of my clients worked at TBD, and I take it's not a place that women or straight men ever frequent, but there's anti gay violence in the immediate area.


Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 27, 2016, 01:41:26 PM
Well, safe being a relative thing. They can vent their spleen within about their homosexual "relationship issues" within that venue without concern about reprisal from the listener for being gay. Now once they leave the bar, the non-patrons are a concern.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on November 27, 2016, 01:54:36 PM
Quote
I think it's a little bit of everything honestly.
Most likely (and your comments are good), but this discussion is about needing to go elsewhere because service was refused.

I honestly think the "gay bar" thing is more cultural in nature than refused service. The bartender and wait staff likely doesn't care. The patrons may be another matter however. But I think that's a near universal if you find your way into the right(wrong) bar.

I also think outright refused services is comparatively rare(quality of service is another matter), or many of the (test) cases that have been floated wouldn't be the ones they'd send to court first. Housing discrimination and employment discrimination are probably much more common(but again still fairly rare), all things considered, and those come with their own set of perils.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 27, 2016, 01:59:38 PM
Another thing I remember is that no male ever hit on me in a gay bar, in contrast to all the times guys hit on me in non gay venues. I can only conclude that gay males act or dress differently in such environments, though I don't know what it was.  Or maybe gaydar just works better there.  LoL.

Another tidbit ... You might be surprised at the number of out of the closet gays don't even know the Leftspeak "LGBT" acronym.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 27, 2016, 03:32:57 PM
Quote
If what they call marriage is sacred, then assenting to another definition of marriage may blaspheme their religion.  Consider the bureaucrat who refused to personally sign a same sex marriage certificate, but approved a subordinate to validate it. What's the problem here?  There's no fundamental right to force people to force a Jewish food critic to approve a bacon cheeseburger.  These lawsuits are vindictive maliciousand opportunistic. In most cases the plaintiffs never genuinely wanted the service from that individual.  Please. You really think there were no gay friendly photographers in town?
There is much to disagree with in every sentence.

Thus (the bolded part), any service can be denied to anyone for any reason, because somewhere somebody will be offended or their religion blasphemed by almost anything you can think of. 

The bureaucrat in Kentucky refused to let anyone in her office sign the marriage license, even though she was a public servant.  By that token the police don't have to help stop a Muslim from being mugged.

The food critic isn't hired by the restaurant, but chooses where to eat.  If s/he works for a newspaper it's between them to decide what the critic's territory includes.

What about the cases where the plaintiffs genuinely did want the service?  If gay people should look for gay-friendly photographers, should black people look for black-friendly restaurants?

No, nor should gays have to find gay friendly restaurants. No more than a bigoted racist photographer have to commemorate a so called "mixed race" wedding.   Do you really not recognise the artistic freedom difference between a wedding photographer and a Restaurant?  An artist should be able to choose her subject matter, otherwise the first Amendment is trashed.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 27, 2016, 03:38:54 PM
While Kasandra sounds familiar, I am confused. I'm hearing Marnie's sociopolitics but Kate's poise and dignity.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 27, 2016, 03:47:10 PM
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The bureaucrat in Kentucky refused to let anyone in her office sign the marriage license, even though she was a public servant.

Don't know that case but agreed that's wrong.

In the case I heard, she was an elected official, not a bureaucrat, and she was jailed even though she offered to let someone else sign the documents. 

An elected local official making a merely nominal token rejection to a new Supreme Court ruling, is federalism working as designed.  You don't have a right to silence people or force them to bow to the new tin god in town.

Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 28, 2016, 07:50:00 AM
Bureaucrats can be elected to fill a slot in a government organization. She is a functionary, and not even a very glorified one.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 28, 2016, 09:36:29 AM
Bureaucrats can be elected to fill a slot in a government organization. She is a functionary, and not even a very glorified one.

Election implies representation, and unless you are from Kentucky, you have no stake nor say in whether her actions represented the feelings of constituents.  Your analysis assumes totalitarian efficiency and fails to appreciate that the inefficient safety valves of a representative federalist system keep a large country from blowing apart without the mind numbing  might makes right nationalism of Russia or the systematic fact suppression of the People's Republic of China. For Frack sake let it go.  As Mr Burns said, "let the fools have their tar tar sauce.". Left washed suppression of dissent in respectable places is what gave us Trump and the Apt Right.  And as someone recently said, things are going to get worse before they get better.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 28, 2016, 10:54:24 AM
Quote
While Kasandra sounds familiar, I am confused. I'm hearing Marnie's sociopolitics but Kate's poise and dignity.
With the lack of participants here I don't think we need to question the identity of past or new posters.  Not everyone chiming in is someone we already know messing with one or more of us.  :P
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: NobleHunter on November 28, 2016, 11:05:45 AM

Don't know that case but agreed that's wrong.

In the case I heard, she was an elected official, not a bureaucrat, and she was jailed even though she offered to let someone else sign the documents. 

An elected local official making a merely nominal token rejection to a new Supreme Court ruling, is federalism working as designed.  You don't have a right to silence people or force them to bow to the new tin god in town.
I don't know if it was the case that may be under discussion, but I think she refused to have her name on the license which may have made it invalid. So her attempted compromise may have still prevented the couples from getting married.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 28, 2016, 11:18:43 AM
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Election implies representation, and unless you are from Kentucky, you have no stake nor say in whether her actions represented the feelings of constituents.
Not sure how her feelings or those of her constituents factor into her fulfilling her role to carry out and enforce the laws under which her office is chartered.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 28, 2016, 11:58:52 AM

Don't know that case but agreed that's wrong.

In the case I heard, she was an elected official, not a bureaucrat, and she was jailed even though she offered to let someone else sign the documents. 

An elected local official making a merely nominal token rejection to a new Supreme Court ruling, is federalism working as designed.  You don't have a right to silence people or force them to bow to the new tin god in town.
I don't know if it was the case that may be under discussion, but I think she refused to have her name on the license which may have made it invalid. So her attempted compromise may have still prevented the couples from getting married.

Horse poo, and you're too smart for that, NH.

" With the lack of participants here I don't think we need to question the identity of past or new posters.  Not everyone chiming in is someone we already know messing with one or more of us"

K challenged me to guess so I guessed. Then K asked me to stop guessing so I stopped. What's the problem?


@K, I have already answered that:
" Your analysis assumes totalitarian efficiency and fails to appreciate that the inefficient safety valves of a representative federalist system keep a large country from blowing apart without the mind numbing  might makes right nationalism of Russia or the systematic fact suppression of the People's Republic of China. For Frack sake let it go.  As Mr Burns said, "let the fools have their tar tar sauce.". Left washed suppression of dissent in respectable places is what gave us Trump and the Apt Right.  And as someone recently said, things are going to get worse before they get better."
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Seriati on November 28, 2016, 03:04:54 PM
How about the right not to discriminated against based on race, religion, sex or sexual orientation?

Let's.  What is your right not be discriminated against based on race, religion, sex or sexual orientation, and who does it protect you from?  Generally speaking it applies directly to your interactions with the government, but otherwise it's been filtered through innumerable interpretations. 

And why is that?  Because these rights are often in direct conflict with each other.  The baker case is a good to highlight that, religion versus sexual orientation, only one of those is in the Constitution, yet somehow "right thinking" people believe the other should be given primacy.

There are other examples, you cite a few:

Quote
How long before someone says that they don't need to rent to a person, sell to a person, or allow in a public place a person because they are of the wrong race, religion, sex or sexual orientation and there are "separate but equal" (i.e. other) facilities they can use?  That the hovel down the street is just as good as the nice apartment they are renting?

Of course discrimination in housing is long settled law.  Your fears would require a bigger shift than any President can manage, even if he replaced several SC justices.  And the backlash would be tremendous if they did.

It's not as clear cut though as it appears.  You can't discriminate on race in housing, right?   Can't refuse to rent an apartment based on race, right?  Can't refuse to rent a hotel room, right?  Of course not.  But you can refuse to rent a room in your house based on race or another prohibited basis, why the difference?  Because, that protection against discrimination can't overwhelm the Constitutional rights of the homeowner.  Would that be decided the same way in the post Baker world?  Maybe not.

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While I respect a person's religious beliefs, just how different is not selling them a cake from not selling them food, or renting them a house, or allowing them in their schools?

Selling a cake?  Not different at all.  Preparing a wedding cake and delivering it to a wedding, very.  I mean honestly, its a basic tenant of our law that you can not force someone to do work for you, even if they sign a contract you can not make them actually show up.   You can sue for damages (but you have to mitigate), but personal services are inviolate.  How is it then that you can force some to spend hours on custom building a product for you?  I think you are under the mistaken impression that they would be making the cake anyway?   Or that it's no big deal for them to make it?  But neither of those has ever been the test.  I can't force someone to dig my ditch if they decide not to, whether or not they take that Saturday off or build someone else's ditch.  I certainly can't force someone to sign a contract with me.  Except, now under this interpretation I can do so, and if they refuse to sign a contract and work for me, I not only don't have to mitigate (which is literally an economic test entitling me to the difference in costs), I can punish them by adding on non-contractual damages and even force them to close?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Seriati on November 28, 2016, 03:12:07 PM
Same question as my noble predecessor AI Wessex asked, chefs are artists of a different sort, but not much different from a pastry/cake chef.  Can they refuse to serve a gay customer if s/he requests to leave the mushrooms out of the risotto?

What a bizarre formulation.  Do they have a religious object to mixing mushrooms and risotto?

The relevant test is whether and when they can treat a gay customer differently.   If they have a policy of agreeing to leave the mushrooms out, except that they won't do modifications if you're gay, that would be discrimination.  If they had a policy of not making any modifications even if you're gay, then no.

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Note this is different from a pharmacist refusing to sell a commodity to a customer, which should never be allowed to happen.  Odd that recent court tests rule in favor of the pharmacist and against the pastry chef.

I'm still debating the Pharmacist issue.  I don't think a Pharmacy should be able to deny a medicine to a customer, not sure about a Pharmacist.  Of course, to implement that a Pharmacy would have to be able to hire on a discriminatory basis to ensure that they have a Pharmacist who will issue the meds.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Seriati on November 28, 2016, 03:13:52 PM
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While Kasandra sounds familiar, I am confused. I'm hearing Marnie's sociopolitics but Kate's poise and dignity.
With the lack of participants here I don't think we need to question the identity of past or new posters.  Not everyone chiming in is someone we already know messing with one or more of us.  :P

I didn't think it was supposed to be a mystery, he announced the name change and referenced the old handle in the new account.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: D.W. on November 28, 2016, 03:43:17 PM
It's just a game that's been going on since I first made an account here.  People posing as others for either their own entertainment, to annoy others, to get around a ban or to carry out both sides of a conversation.  Now granted, that's mostly what others have accused people of.  I don't know how much of that has actually occurred.

I find it all fairly juvenile.  The above may not apply at all.  I was playing catch-up on the posts after the long weekend.  I just wanted to vent a little frustration at this "game" potentially cropping up again.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on November 28, 2016, 03:50:44 PM
I find it all fairly juvenile.  The above may not apply at all.  I was playing catch-up on the posts after the long weekend.  I just wanted to vent a little frustration at this "game" potentially cropping up again.

In fact, I may even cancel my Fenring account just to show I'm done with this game. It's been fun but I'll stick to the D.W. account from now on and no more funny business.








(just kidding D.W.  ;D)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 28, 2016, 04:15:41 PM
Quote
What a bizarre formulation.  Do they have a religious object to mixing mushrooms and risotto?
OK, pick some ingredients that would tweak a religious conservative (or wiccan or animist) to refuse on the relevant grounds.  Personally, I think mushrooms are wonderful in risotto.  Not sure about entrails, though.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 28, 2016, 04:18:46 PM
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I didn't think it was supposed to be a mystery, he announced the name change and referenced the old handle in the new account.
I find the whole thing mysterious.  Mod disabled my old account at my request.  As you can tell from Pete's responses, I am sounding much more mature and reasonable now, so it was a good move. Let all heed, or woe is I!
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 28, 2016, 05:40:49 PM
True that, but I noticed that shift in you after a few posts after I came back.  But, yes, the name change helps too because even though you had regained something and perhaps gained even more, I was stuck in old ruts and quarrels. So instead of welcome forward. You're still wrong, but you're all right by me :)
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 28, 2016, 05:56:18 PM
Thanks, I appreciate that (I think), but it is no matter, only talk.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Seriati on November 29, 2016, 09:45:48 AM
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What a bizarre formulation.  Do they have a religious object to mixing mushrooms and risotto?
OK, pick some ingredients that would tweak a religious conservative (or wiccan or animist) to refuse on the relevant grounds.  Personally, I think mushrooms are wonderful in risotto.  Not sure about entrails, though.

To what end?  If they have a religious objection to an ingredient it won't be on the menu at all, regardless of your sexual orientation.  For your hypo to make sense, there has to be a discrimination between the two customers with respect to customizing a dish. 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 29, 2016, 10:32:35 AM
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To what end?  If they have a religious objection to an ingredient it won't be on the menu at all, regardless of your sexual orientation.  For your hypo to make sense, there has to be a discrimination between the two customers with respect to customizing a dish.
I give up.  You are obstinately stubborn on this and will fabricate an objection for any counter case.  If you go back to my original hypothesis, it was that a gay couple requested a change to the dish and the chef refused, not that the change itself was objectionable.  That is equivalent to the baker refusing to make a cake for a gay customer, not refusing to use an ingredient that he objected to.  Good grief! 
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Seriati on November 29, 2016, 10:36:40 AM
So you posit that the chef is willing to remove the mushrooms for straight customers, but not gay?  The law is clear on that being active discrimination and illegal. 

My point is that you have to show a conflict of rights, where is the chef's protected right that is in conflict?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 29, 2016, 10:44:59 AM
So you posit that the chef is willing to remove the mushrooms for straight customers, but not gay?  The law is clear on that being active discrimination and illegal. 

My point is that you have to show a conflict of rights, where is the chef's protected right that is in conflict?
Where is the baker's?  He and his many supporters argued that his rights were being denied because he wasn't allowed to deny service because he objects to homosexuality.  Give an example where it is justified for a service provider to deny that service based on their own religious (or moral) beliefs.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 29, 2016, 12:26:48 PM
Wasn't there a case in West Carolina where a Rastatologist chef said it was against his religion to remove mushrooms from a gay couple's food?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Kasandra on November 29, 2016, 01:24:22 PM
Were they religious mushrooms?
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Seriati on November 29, 2016, 01:49:02 PM
So you posit that the chef is willing to remove the mushrooms for straight customers, but not gay?  The law is clear on that being active discrimination and illegal. 

My point is that you have to show a conflict of rights, where is the chef's protected right that is in conflict?
Where is the baker's?

The baker has a religious objection to gay weddings.  Providing a wedding cake is a customized product that requires hours of individualized attention, requires coordination to deliver properly and requires participation to a limited extent in the event.

I don't agree with the baker, I don't see how anyone's religion could be so restrictive, but I acknowledge that I am not the interpreter of someone else's religious commitments and beliefs.  Unless you dispute that it was a legitimately held belief, which is where your "example" is strained, what exactly are you confused about?

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He and his many supporters argued that his rights were being denied because he wasn't allowed to deny service because he objects to homosexuality.  Give an example where it is justified for a service provider to deny that service based on their own religious (or moral) beliefs.

Literally, as I said before, no one can be forced to provide personal services.  It's settled law.  So basically, every single employment situation is subject to personal beliefs. 

I can never tell with you, why you insist on making absurd analogies.  It's like you want to make an argument to absurdity but since you miss the point and the real issue your argument doesn't work.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Pete at Home on November 29, 2016, 01:52:57 PM
Were they religious mushrooms?

That's precisely the question that SCOTUS needs to rule on.  That's why the Republicans have been feverishly blocking Barry's appointments in hopes of a more favorable appointment by Scarecrow.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: scifibum on September 13, 2018, 06:33:25 PM
Accelerating growth in national deficit. 

That's about all I feel confident about.


My prediction was right!
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on September 13, 2018, 11:09:59 PM
Looks like I called this one right:

"3. Gun sales start to level off or maybe even decrease instead of the massive spike we've seen under Obama."

https://www.newsweek.com/gun-sales-down-after-obama-boom-years-573170

Gun Sales Down After Obama Boom Years
By Cristina Silva On 3/23/17 at 3:36 PM

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Say what you want about Obama but he was the best gun salesman in American history. Gotta give him credit where it's due.

What could Trump do better here? Maybe next year he could tweet about how he's had a change of heart and he's going to issue an executive order banning gun sales so if people want guns they'd better stock up fast. Then the next day when the calendar rolls over to April 2nd he just laughs because that was a good one, and helped the gun manufacturers get a little bump too which is good for the economy.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Greg Davidson on September 13, 2018, 11:39:15 PM
Hey, thanks for pulling this up:

This prediction was right on target - 3-4% growth based on the stimulus of a tax cut on the 1% that pushes the deficit up to almost $1T/year:
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I can hope for all the positives here, including many that cherry mentioned, and 3%-4% growth sounds great. The ability to increase the deficit with higher government spending can get that much growth or more, as it did with Reagan.  But I suspect that the deficit will increase dramatically based primarily on tax cuts on the 1%... Deficit spending will go up to just shy of $1T per year (fraudulently justified because of the "Obama deficits" that Obama inherited from Bush), and with a limited fraction of that being additional government spending

Here's another one that's pretty darn prescient
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I expect that there will be tangible, actual evidence of the crimes that Hillary Clinton was accused of but never proven, but that evidence will be about Donald Trump and members of his Administration.  I believe that President Trump will unintentionally reveal classified information (and significant information, not something like a Snowden news article). I believe that there will be a number of financial/graft indictments/convictions similar to under Reagan (or US Grant if you want to go that far back). And I believe that no one who expressed concern about Hillary Clinton with regard to classified information or corruption will spend 1/100th the amount of time an energy on those topics when they occur in a Trump Administration.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: cherrypoptart on September 14, 2018, 12:20:22 AM
I agreed with you all about the debt and deficit going up under Trump. He seems to have a real estate investor's approach to debt and figure it's great because it gives you leverage especially if you can take on debt at low interest rates and make much more in profits but I don't think it works the same way for the federal budget as it does for flipping houses or building hotels. If it only goes up as much as it did under Obama, that may not be a win but it's a draw. It'd be nice if it went down but that's not likely no matter who is in charge anymore. It seems like Trump promised he'd get rid of the national debt within 8 years so it's too soon to say whether that's a lie or not although but I think it will be but I guess this is the wrong thread for that and I overstayed my welcome over there anyway.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-woodward-book-trump-federal-debt-printing-money-2018-9

Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Fenring on September 14, 2018, 12:23:38 AM
I seem to have been wrong so far in guessing that Trump would veer towards center and upset everyone. Or at least I was wrong that he would veer center...

Turns out he hasn't veered anywhere and resides in the same mental space he inhabited while campaigning.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDrake on September 14, 2018, 03:41:20 AM
Looks like I called this one right:

"3. Gun sales start to level off or maybe even decrease instead of the massive spike we've seen under Obama."

https://www.newsweek.com/gun-sales-down-after-obama-boom-years-573170

Gun Sales Down After Obama Boom Years
By Cristina Silva On 3/23/17 at 3:36 PM

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Say what you want about Obama but he was the best gun salesman in American history. Gotta give him credit where it's due.

What could Trump do better here? Maybe next year he could tweet about how he's had a change of heart and he's going to issue an executive order banning gun sales so if people want guns they'd better stock up fast. Then the next day when the calendar rolls over to April 2nd he just laughs because that was a good one, and helped the gun manufacturers get a little bump too which is good for the economy.

So a bunch of jackass redneck deporables got scared by nra propaganda? And trump made them slightly calmer? wow big win
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: TheDeamon on September 17, 2018, 11:05:44 AM
I seem to have been wrong so far in guessing that Trump would veer towards center and upset everyone. Or at least I was wrong that he would veer center...

Turns out he hasn't veered anywhere and resides in the same mental space he inhabited while campaigning.

I think he made an attempt at doing so, but was solidly rebuffed by the Democrats and the Tea Party Caucus alike, so he reverted to form and hasn't made an attempt since.

My prediction for the "real" switch always kind of presumed it would happen after the mid-term, particularly in the event Dems get control of at least the House. At which point the Dems are going to have a harder time saying no.
Title: Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
Post by: Greg Davidson on September 23, 2018, 07:51:35 PM
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I think he made an attempt at doing so, but was solidly rebuffed by the Democrats and the Tea Party Caucus alike, so he reverted to form and hasn't made an attempt since

This may describe your thinking but not reality. Can you name the specific "veer to the center" policy approach that Trump proposed after in office that was "solidly rebuffed" by Democrats?