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General Category => General Comments => Topic started by: Kasandra on July 28, 2019, 09:47:47 AM

Title: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on July 28, 2019, 09:47:47 AM
Mainly to citizens of America's erstwhile colonial masters (but anyone else who cares to weigh in), what will happen because of Johnson's ascendancy? 

* Will the UK crash out of the EU?  If it does, will the UK prosper as BoJo predicts or flounder economically?

* Will the Pound sterling fall below 1:1 against the US dollar?

* Will Scotland or Wales secede from the Union?

* Will the Irish Republic and Northern Island reunite and secede from the Union?

* Will the NFL and MLB play more games in England because it will become cheap to visit?

What other positive or negative effects do you foresee?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Wayward Son on July 29, 2019, 12:09:35 PM
From the little I hear from this side of the pond, Johnson has unrealistic plans (hopes) for Brexit, along with a determination that he will exit the E.U. by Oct. 31, come hell or high water.  Which most likely means a hard Brexit, which will almost definitely lead to an economic recession for Britain.  I've heard estimates as high at 10 to 15 percent reduction in their economy.

This would mean a drop in the pound and probably a worldwide recession, which President Trump will blame on the Democrats. :)

I doubt Scotland or Wales (or Whales, as our President spells it :) ), will secede.  I can't see Ireland uniting.  I do see the violence in Ireland increasing because of the border being re-instated between Northern Ireland and the rest of the isle.  We all pray it won't be as bad as back before the Good Friday accord. :(

Johnson will doubtlessly make some trade deal with the U.S., which will most likely do very little to help either economy, (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2019/Pres/Maps/Jul29.html#item-7) although both leaders will exaggerate its effect.

You should check you last night's episode of >Last Week Tonight with John Oliver.  He goes into what a clown Johnson is, and how he will probably crash and burn.  He had a previous episode about Brexit that echos my post, too.  (I must warn you, though, he makes numerous references to a couple of rutting foxes in the episode, so caveat emptor.)
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on August 02, 2019, 03:37:32 PM
Now he may soon be gonezo if the Conservative coalition loses one more member.  UK politics are pretty opaque to us cross-ponders, but I have always assumed that Shakespearean heroes would rise to lead the empire out of every grave difficulty.  Where are they now?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 04, 2019, 09:18:31 AM
Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution and treat his opposition in Parliament is if it is a nuisance rather than a majority.  It's clear that Johnson is a bully like Trump, but unlike Trump he has no mandate or even an identified constituency.  He's trying to force his will onto people who truly are confused and his coercion isn't galvanizing people to follow his lead.  If anything, he's racking up opponents who simply don't trust anything he says.  That's another point of comparison with Trump, whose US constituency is eroding bit by bit with every dishonest, insincere, manipulative and self-aggrandizing tweet he issues.

The only reasonable expectation for the UK is that the Brexit process will continue to get worse and nobody knows how to make it get any better.  RIP as night falls on the Empire of the Sun.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on September 04, 2019, 10:33:56 AM
Mainly to citizens of America's erstwhile colonial masters (but anyone else who cares to weigh in), what will happen because of Johnson's ascendancy?

General election.

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* Will the UK crash out of the EU?  If it does, will the UK prosper as BoJo predicts or flounder economically?

No.  But without the threat they'll never get a deal they can accept.  Accordingly, the result of Brexit is going to be staying in the EU in a worse position.

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* Will Scotland or Wales secede from the Union?

Scotland may, doubt Wales would.

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* Will the Irish Republic and Northern Island reunite and secede from the Union?

No.  I didn't realize before that the "backstop" would effectively prevent the UK from entering into trade agreements on its own, that pretty much ensures a bad result economically for the UK.  No wonder it failed.  Ireland is an Island and it should be  treated as such, with special internal rules and both the EU and the UK dealing with their own issues at the ports and airports.

Will they get there?  Not without the threat of a hard Brexit.  The EU has no incentive to negotiate in good faith when the UK is undermining itself.

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What other positive or negative effects do you foresee?

If the UK successfully leaves, which I doubt will actually occur, though if a general election gives Boris a solid majority it becomes a certainty, then the EU will go one of two directions, it'll either become even more totalitarian and at a faster pace, completely overriding the national governments of all but the most powerful countries, or it'll make some structural reforms to address the legit issues that put the UK in the position its in.  I think the former is more likely.

For the UK?  The pain will be less than predicted by the experts who are trying to generate fear, and long term they'll be net positive.  Pretty much the primary reason there will be any pain is the EU choosing to inflict it to punish the UK (which says an awful lot about why they should leave).

Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution and treat his opposition in Parliament is if it is a nuisance rather than a majority.

A majority that is doing everything it can to cancel the result of the referendum. I'm not seeing either group covering itself in real glory, but at least Johnson is moving to break the impasse.

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It's clear that Johnson is a bully like Trump, but unlike Trump he has no mandate or even an identified constituency.  He's trying to force his will onto people who truly are confused and his coercion isn't galvanizing people to follow his lead.

Johnson may be a bully, not seeing the great parallel to Trump on that point.  They're most similar in their communication style, not their acts.

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The only reasonable expectation for the UK is that the Brexit process will continue to get worse and nobody knows how to make it get any better.  RIP as night falls on the Empire of the Sun.

The Brexit process isn't "getting worse."  It was never viable, Johnson's just forcing that fact into the open.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Wayward Son on September 04, 2019, 10:50:08 AM
You make it sound like a hard Brexit gives the United Kingdom some sort of leverage with the E.U.  Why would that be?

Sure, the U.K. exiting the E.U. would hurt the E.U., but it will hurt the U.K. even worse.  And the E.U. wants to make sure no other country seriously considers leaving.  So they want to make it as painful as possible to leave.  They couldn't do any better than a hard Brexit.

Even if the E.U. wanted to negotiate, there is practically no time for it anymore.  A bit less than 2 months to come up with a new deal?  Won't happen.  Too many players on the E.U. side.  It will take time for them to come to a consensus.  Certainly more than 2 months.

Johnson has given himself a deadline that practically guarantees a hard Brexit.  Which is going to create a major recession in Britain, and will almost certainly trigger a worldwide recession, too.  For all our sakes, let's hope he fails.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on September 04, 2019, 11:25:52 AM
Well, again, I think Hard Brexit consequences have been oversold.  But frankly, taking it off the table is just a guaranty there will be no movement on the EU's side.  If the current deal is "unacceptable" then a new deal has to be reached, correct?  It would be an incremental deal not a complete new deal.  Could it be done by October 31?  Maybe if it's just on the backstop.

The UK has systematically given up leverage at every turn.  Agreeing to deal with the payments before they worked on the deal?  Totally stupid, and I don't care how difficult the EU was being.  Boris walked that back, flat out said its off the table in a Hard Brexit. 

I just don't get the idea that there's anyway to get any EU movement if you make it against the law to inflict any consequence on them.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on September 04, 2019, 12:24:35 PM
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No.  I didn't realize before that the "backstop" would effectively prevent the UK from entering into trade agreements on its own, that pretty much ensures a bad result economically for the UK.  No wonder it failed.  Ireland is an Island and it should be  treated as such, with special internal rules and both the EU and the UK dealing with their own issues at the ports and airports.
IRRC, Ireland has veto over any Brexit agreement. Not hard to see why they'd object to barriers between them and the rest of the EU. The current UK government had a majority only with N Ireland MPs who object to barriers between them and the rest of the UK. Neither side is in a position to partially expel their Irish territories.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 04, 2019, 01:16:20 PM
You make it sound like a hard Brexit gives the United Kingdom some sort of leverage with the E.U.  Why would that be?

Sure, the U.K. exiting the E.U. would hurt the E.U., but it will hurt the U.K. even worse.  And the E.U. wants to make sure no other country seriously considers leaving.  So they want to make it as painful as possible to leave.  They couldn't do any better than a hard Brexit.

Even if the E.U. wanted to negotiate, there is practically no time for it anymore.  A bit less than 2 months to come up with a new deal?  Won't happen.  Too many players on the E.U. side.  It will take time for them to come to a consensus.  Certainly more than 2 months.

Johnson has given himself a deadline that practically guarantees a hard Brexit.  Which is going to create a major recession in Britain, and will almost certainly trigger a worldwide recession, too.  For all our sakes, let's hope he fails.
Unfortunately, all 27 EU nations have to agree to an extension.  So the UK's inability to come to a pragmatic position means that they will crash out.  There's some debate whether BoJo really wants the no-deal exit, which he has argued is the best outcome, or whether he honestly (yeah, right) thinks he can negotiate his way into a better deal and ram it down the people's throats.  He's very bright, but his gaslight burns brighter than his wit.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DonaldD on September 04, 2019, 01:27:49 PM
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IRRC, Ireland has veto over any Brexit agreement
Not a literal veto, but maybe an effective one... the UK has treaty obligations to the Irish Republic, but also to Northern Ireland, obligations that as a result have de facto become a part of the UK constitution. Other primary issues being that the UK must support North/South cooperation and the "all-island" economy.

But the Irish Republic (IR) is simply not going to give up unfettered access to the EU, they had no say in the brexit vote, and neither the IR nor the EU have any interest in foisting the cost of brexit on the IR. Putting up barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK is also a non-starter, and nobody wants a hard border between NI and the IR.

There is no clear solution - the backstop was simply a way of kicking that can down the street.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on September 04, 2019, 01:34:34 PM
Not a literal veto, but maybe an effective one... the UK has treaty obligations to the Irish Republic, but also to Northern Ireland, obligations that as a result have de facto become a part of the UK constitution. Other primary issues being that the UK must support North/South cooperation and the "all-island" economy.

But the Irish Republic (IR) is simply not going to give up unfettered access to the EU, they had no say in the brexit vote, and neither the IR nor the EU have any interest in foisting the cost of brexit on the IR. Putting up barriers between Northern Ireland and the UK is also a non-starter, and nobody wants a hard border between NI and the IR.

There is no clear solution - the backstop was simply a way of kicking that can down the street.

I meant a veto as a member of EU. I think there needs to be consensus for any UK-EU arrangements after Brexit.

]Unfortunately, all 27 EU nations have to agree to an extension.  So the UK's inability to come to a pragmatic position means that they will crash out.  There's some debate whether BoJo really wants the no-deal exit, which he has argued is the best outcome, or whether he honestly (yeah, right) thinks he can negotiate his way into a better deal and ram it down the people's throats.  He's very bright, but his gaslight burns brighter than his wit.

If BoJo could come up with a solution to the Irish Question (which may not be the best way to phrase that), I think he could get a deal done without needing to ram anything.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 04, 2019, 01:47:17 PM
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If BoJo could come up with a solution to the Irish Question (which may not be the best way to phrase that), I think he could get a deal done without needing to ram anything.
I am not an expert, but I haven't heard anyone claiming to be offer one.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on September 04, 2019, 01:56:21 PM
The UK could pay Ireland for the hundreds of new custom officials (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jan/23/ireland-ramp-up-no-deal-brexit-plans-400-new-customs-officials)

Although in fairness, I'm not sure how different it would be. Goods to the UK would have to go through customs no matter what - at least for any deal that doesn't keep the UK in the economic position they were during the EU. So Ireland winds up getting to hire hundreds of custom officials no matter what, it seems.

Various types of legislation in the EU require all member states to agree, including tax policy and giving the UK an extension on exit time (and all other Brexit matters).
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Wayward Son on September 04, 2019, 02:02:51 PM
One obvious solution would be to make Northern Ireland a de facto part of the Irish Republic, and locate the customs borders between Ireland and the rest of the U.K.  The Irish Republic and Northern Ireland would be treated as part of the E.U., and any people or products that go into England, et al, from Northern Ireland would have to be checked by customs.

I'm not quite sure how the Orange Irish would like that, though. ;)
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DonaldD on September 04, 2019, 02:20:47 PM
The cost of clearing customs is not just the salaries and infrastructure required by border agents, but the overhead required of all companies importing into the RI and exporting to the IR.

The UK would also need to compensate the RI for the lost opportunity costs...
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DonaldD on September 04, 2019, 02:27:01 PM
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One obvious solution would be to make Northern Ireland a de facto part of the Irish Republic, and locate the customs borders between Ireland and the rest of the U.K
This also may be problematic, as it conflicts directly with the UK commitment to the Common Travel Area, a part of the Good Friday Accord and de facto part of the Constitution of the UK.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 08, 2019, 10:24:40 AM
There's a German word for taking pleasure in other's pain, and I can't remember it at the moment, but gotdamn I'm enjoying Johnson getting this thrown in his face.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 08, 2019, 10:25:58 AM
Schadenfreude. That's the one.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 08, 2019, 10:48:28 AM
It seems like almost everyone in the UK government has miscalculated everything since the very beginning, starting with David Cameron calling for the vote in the mistaken expectation that it would lose handily. The litany of mistakes at every step since then is too long to recite, but BoJo is the perfect incarnation and vessel representing all of them.  I have a lot of empathy for what the people over there will have to endure as a result of this ongoing fiasco. But when I think of their predicament and ours in the US watching our own government seemingly dissolve before our eyes, I worry that we are in the beginning stages of the demise of the "grand experiment" of Democracy across the world.  There's more to moan about than just these two situations, but I either should have a drink first or give up drinking.  It's hard to know which.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Wayward Son on September 09, 2019, 03:44:00 PM
If you're at all interested in the Brexit Crisis, check out Charlie Stross' blog. (http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2019/08/case-nightmare-blonde.html) (Charlie is a British SF author, which gives him the home field advantage on perspective.) 

I'm especially interested* in his statement that the "referendum that was only upheld by the courts because it was non-binding (so the foreign interference and straight-up vote rigging couldn't be held a violation of election law)." They may wreck the UK economy over a non-binding referendum??  ::) 

(*Interested enough to mention it, but not to research to verify it. :) )

Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Wayward Son on September 09, 2019, 03:48:05 PM
Oh, yeah, and as a side note: John  Oliver was talking about Brexit last night, and mentioned that several MPs have quit over the issue, including a certain Jo Johnson, who happens to be Boris' brother.  :o
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on September 09, 2019, 04:20:15 PM
The line I heard regarding Jo Johnson is "he's quitting to spend less time with his family."

Now it's being alleged that Boris lied to the Queen to get Parliament prorogued.

The referendum was definitely non-binding though the Tories chose to act as if it were.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 09, 2019, 04:26:49 PM
The line I heard regarding Jo Johnson is "he's quitting to spend less time with his family."

Now it's being alleged that Boris lied to the Queen to get Parliament prorogued.

The referendum was definitely non-binding though the Tories chose to act as if it were.

Of course it was.  The very idea of the referendum was insane. It'd be like the US letting people decide a really big decision for all the states based upon which idiot read the Daily Mail. Stateside propositions are bad enough, but christ. Nationwide ones? There is a very good reason that both the US and UK govern through a representative democracy and it ain't about Joe Redneck getting to vote about burkas or whatever.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 10, 2019, 05:48:07 AM
It's hard to pin down what is binding in a country that has no written Constitution.  They gave themselves their word they were leaving, so honor demands they do it.  What could be more "democratic" than that?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: rightleft22 on September 10, 2019, 10:13:51 AM
The Battle cry "honor demands"  leading to so much pain.

“As he carried the blood-splattered body of his precious daughter, draped in bridal attire, he could feel the nagging burden of being pawned into a senseless situation. Yards behind,
another life, lay snuffed – the sole earning member of a destitute family, leaving behind an aged mother and a widowed sister to weep until their tears would run dry.” ― Rajnish Gambhir, Honour for a Ransom
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 10, 2019, 11:23:38 AM
To follow up. The right's gleeful proclamations about the sanctity of the Brexit vote should probably get ready to respond about how the only the reason they have a vote in the States is due to the Electoral Collage and the deliberate lies drawing up Congressional districts. I.e gerrymandering.

Please. I dare any of you R's. Try to bring an argument based on weight of numbers.

We all love represenative democracy. It's honestly the best idea we've had.  It annoys me when people slip out of that respect to complain about the will of the people.

The people get to decide their will. In the voting box. Deciding the person who is more experienced/cool/knowledgeable on the matters that care for them.

There is nowhere in our cultural history where people have respected the random guy's vote because the random guy is an idiot. And ya'll can bleat about the need for the average person to vote, and respect their opinion, but something tells e you wouldn't be on board with a law requiring anyone 18+ to vote lol.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on September 10, 2019, 12:03:08 PM
To follow up. The right's gleeful proclamations about the sanctity of the Brexit vote should probably get ready to respond about how the only the reason they have a vote in the States is due to the Electoral Collage and the deliberate lies drawing up Congressional districts. I.e gerrymandering.

It's an interesting point, not sure I agree with any of it though.  I think Brexit is a good idea, and I understand the reasons people would vote for it, but I would never support a renunciation of the right of free determination.  If they want to vote again and Remainers win, that's fine too (even if I think they'll be worse off long term).

That really has next to nothing to do with the electoral college.  The electoral college is more akin to how some people think its unfair that a big pro-Exit vote in England, override a big pro-EU vote in Scotland and Wales.  If you imagine the UK as a US equivalent then the "electoral college" may have actually prevented the Brexit vote from winning, depending on how it's actually constructed.  Which is kind of exactly it's point, to ensure that the most populous region can't use it's raw numbers to ignore the less populace, but distinct areas, and to ensure that national policy has to consider the whole nation.

Gerrymandering is not a Republican only problem.  The left is just a wicked on this front (looking at you MD, for example).  In fact, there's a huge amount of intentionally pro-Democrat manipulation that's legally required (which was a major coup), even if how it operates wasn't set up.

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Please. I dare any of you R's. Try to bring an argument based on weight of numbers.

Don't think it was that hard.  The electoral college has a specific purpose that's factually a good thing for a nation.

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We all love represenative democracy. It's honestly the best idea we've had.  It annoys me when people slip out of that respect to complain about the will of the people.

Not sure where you are going here, "representative democracy" and the "will of the people" can easily be at direct odds.  I think the Brexit vote was kind of an oddity (the equivalent in the US for example, would require effectively a Constitutional Amendment, 2/3's approval in each house of Congress and approval of 75% of the States, not flipping the switch on a bare majority of the country), in that it undermines the actual representative democracy in the UK, but then so did joining the EU in the first place.

So why did they offer it?  And what do you actually do if more than half of your voters wants freedom from an unelected government with overwhelming powers (England at least should have been familiar with that situation as it's played out many times among their colonies).

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The people get to decide their will. In the voting box. Deciding the person who is more experienced/cool/knowledgeable on the matters that care for them.

Or in the case of CA not in the ballot box and uncontrolled through ballot harvesting that there's no way to control for reasonable protections (which in NC is what's causing a revote today, and in CA flipped 8 seats that have been Republican for a long time).

Quote
There is nowhere in our cultural history where people have respected the random guy's vote because the random guy is an idiot. And ya'll can bleat about the need for the average person to vote, and respect their opinion, but something tells e you wouldn't be on board with a law requiring anyone 18+ to vote lol.

There's actually a place where they do - polling and marketing.  Pretty much every single argument you see where someone claims they have the support of the people is made on the basis of the "random (or even not random at all)" guys vote. 

I tend not to support laws that force those who have self selected not to vote to vote.  Not sure how anyone can think an electoral process is made better by compelling participation of those who choose not to be informed.  In fact that's my biggest problem with ballot harvesting, it's "including" people who are virtually guaranteed to be casting ill informed and easily manipulated votes.

But that said, it's not the worst process possible.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 10, 2019, 12:16:52 PM
So, the EU made it a point to set up a law to unravel places where money laundering/tax avoidance were a problem. And wouldn't you know it,  when that got out, and the deadline for it, there were *so many* people and media outlets crying for a Brexit option.

Real Christmas miracle.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 10, 2019, 12:21:18 PM
To follow up. The right's gleeful proclamations about the sanctity of the Brexit vote should probably get ready to respond about how the only the reason they have a vote in the States is due to the Electoral Collage and the deliberate lies drawing up Congressional districts. I.e gerrymandering.

It's an interesting point, not sure I agree with any of it though.  I think Brexit is a good idea, and I understand the reasons people would vote for it, but I would never support a renunciation of the right of free determination.  If they want to vote again and Remainers win, that's fine too (even if I think they'll be worse off long term).

That really has next to nothing to do with the electoral college.  The electoral college is more akin to how some people think its unfair that a big pro-Exit vote in England, override a big pro-EU vote in Scotland and Wales.  If you imagine the UK as a US equivalent then the "electoral college" may have actually prevented the Brexit vote from winning, depending on how it's actually constructed.  Which is kind of exactly it's point, to ensure that the most populous region can't use it's raw numbers to ignore the less populace, but distinct areas, and to ensure that national policy has to consider the whole nation.

Gerrymandering is not a Republican only problem.  The left is just a wicked on this front (looking at you MD, for example).  In fact, there's a huge amount of intentionally pro-Democrat manipulation that's legally required (which was a major coup), even if how it operates wasn't set up.

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Please. I dare any of you R's. Try to bring an argument based on weight of numbers.

Don't think it was that hard.  The electoral college has a specific purpose that's factually a good thing for a nation.

Quote
We all love represenative democracy. It's honestly the best idea we've had.  It annoys me when people slip out of that respect to complain about the will of the people.

Not sure where you are going here, "representative democracy" and the "will of the people" can easily be at direct odds.  I think the Brexit vote was kind of an oddity (the equivalent in the US for example, would require effectively a Constitutional Amendment, 2/3's approval in each house of Congress and approval of 75% of the States, not flipping the switch on a bare majority of the country), in that it undermines the actual representative democracy in the UK, but then so did joining the EU in the first place.

So why did they offer it?  And what do you actually do if more than half of your voters wants freedom from an unelected government with overwhelming powers (England at least should have been familiar with that situation as it's played out many times among their colonies).

Quote
The people get to decide their will. In the voting box. Deciding the person who is more experienced/cool/knowledgeable on the matters that care for them.

Or in the case of CA not in the ballot box and uncontrolled through ballot harvesting that there's no way to control for reasonable protections (which in NC is what's causing a revote today, and in CA flipped 8 seats that have been Republican for a long time).

Quote
There is nowhere in our cultural history where people have respected the random guy's vote because the random guy is an idiot. And ya'll can bleat about the need for the average person to vote, and respect their opinion, but something tells e you wouldn't be on board with a law requiring anyone 18+ to vote lol.

There's actually a place where they do - polling and marketing.  Pretty much every single argument you see where someone claims they have the support of the people is made on the basis of the "random (or even not random at all)" guys vote. 

I tend not to support laws that force those who have self selected not to vote to vote.  Not sure how anyone can think an electoral process is made better by compelling participation of those who choose not to be informed.  In fact that's my biggest problem with ballot harvesting, it's "including" people who are virtually guaranteed to be casting ill informed and easily manipulated votes.

But that said, it's not the worst process possible.

I honestly don't get it sometimes. You people are all about "Yeah man get out the vote!".

Buy you have to know the numbers are against you. Literally the only thing giving the R's in America a voice is old people and that young people don't vote.

Gotta ask. Do you think young people should vote more?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Fenring on September 10, 2019, 12:25:07 PM
Buy you have to know the numbers are against you. Literally the only thing giving the R's in America a voice is old people and that young people don't vote.

Gotta ask. Do you think young people should vote more?

I'd like to issue a small correction to this: the only thing giving the establishment a voice is older people, and that young people are repeatedly told their voices don't matter in every way that counts. They are told that progressive candidates 'don't have a chance' and not to waste their vote on them, which is another way of saying 'don't vote'.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 10, 2019, 12:26:11 PM
To follow up. The right's gleeful proclamations about the sanctity of the Brexit vote should probably get ready to respond about how the only the reason they have a vote in the States is due to the Electoral Collage and the deliberate lies drawing up Congressional districts. I.e gerrymandering.

It's an interesting point, not sure I agree with any of it though.  I think Brexit is a good idea, and I understand the reasons people would vote for it, but I would never support a renunciation of the right of free determination.  If they want to vote again and Remainers win, that's fine too (even if I think they'll be worse off long term).

That really has next to nothing to do with the electoral college.  The electoral college is more akin to how some people think its unfair that a big pro-Exit vote in England, override a big pro-EU vote in Scotland and Wales.  If you imagine the UK as a US equivalent then the "electoral college" may have actually prevented the Brexit vote from winning, depending on how it's actually constructed.  Which is kind of exactly it's point, to ensure that the most populous region can't use it's raw numbers to ignore the less populace, but distinct areas, and to ensure that national policy has to consider the whole nation.

Gerrymandering is not a Republican only problem.  The left is just a wicked on this front (looking at you MD, for example).  In fact, there's a huge amount of intentionally pro-Democrat manipulation that's legally required (which was a major coup), even if how it operates wasn't set up.

Quote
Please. I dare any of you R's. Try to bring an argument based on weight of numbers.

Don't think it was that hard.  The electoral college has a specific purpose that's factually a good thing for a nation.

Quote
We all love represenative democracy. It's honestly the best idea we've had.  It annoys me when people slip out of that respect to complain about the will of the people.

Not sure where you are going here, "representative democracy" and the "will of the people" can easily be at direct odds.  I think the Brexit vote was kind of an oddity (the equivalent in the US for example, would require effectively a Constitutional Amendment, 2/3's approval in each house of Congress and approval of 75% of the States, not flipping the switch on a bare majority of the country), in that it undermines the actual representative democracy in the UK, but then so did joining the EU in the first place.

So why did they offer it?  And what do you actually do if more than half of your voters wants freedom from an unelected government with overwhelming powers (England at least should have been familiar with that situation as it's played out many times among their colonies).

Quote
The people get to decide their will. In the voting box. Deciding the person who is more experienced/cool/knowledgeable on the matters that care for them.

Or in the case of CA not in the ballot box and uncontrolled through ballot harvesting that there's no way to control for reasonable protections (which in NC is what's causing a revote today, and in CA flipped 8 seats that have been Republican for a long time).

Quote
There is nowhere in our cultural history where people have respected the random guy's vote because the random guy is an idiot. And ya'll can bleat about the need for the average person to vote, and respect their opinion, but something tells e you wouldn't be on board with a law requiring anyone 18+ to vote lol.

There's actually a place where they do - polling and marketing.  Pretty much every single argument you see where someone claims they have the support of the people is made on the basis of the "random (or even not random at all)" guys vote. 

I tend not to support laws that force those who have self selected not to vote to vote.  Not sure how anyone can think an electoral process is made better by compelling participation of those who choose not to be informed.  In fact that's my biggest problem with ballot harvesting, it's "including" people who are virtually guaranteed to be casting ill informed and easily manipulated votes.

But that said, it's not the worst process possible.

We have a Representative democracy for a reason
 You don't like what they're doing, choose someone else.

Otherwise you're asking two wolves and a sheep what's for dinner.

You don't believe the opinion of the guy down the street can decide what's best. Neither do I. We voted in people who do their best. Why should be thrown that system aside to suck on the people reading the Mail?.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on September 10, 2019, 12:30:08 PM
Buy you have to know the numbers are against you. Literally the only thing giving the R's in America a voice is old people and that young people don't vote.

Gotta ask. Do you think young people should vote more?

I'd like to issue a small correction to this: the only thing giving the establishment a voice is older people, and that young people are repeatedly told their voices don't matter in every way that counts. They are told that progressive candidates 'don't have a chance' and not to waste their vote on them, which is another way of saying 'don't vote'.

In some ways you're right, in some ways you're wrong. It really is a chicken and egg problem.

It's not fair that older people have  greater hold on the media.

The way the media treats the young is atrocious. They should probably figure that out.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on September 10, 2019, 12:51:45 PM
I honestly don't get it sometimes. You people are all about "Yeah man get out the vote!".

Buy you have to know the numbers are against you. Literally the only thing giving the R's in America a voice is old people and that young people don't vote.

Gotta ask. Do you think young people should vote more?

More a Democratic campaign than a Republican one, but yes I do want people to vote more.  I want them to vote more because they care enough to vote and because they got informed.

It's funny, cause you're right, older people (who've gotten experience) are the ones that keep voting Republican, that care about their rights and their taxes (since they have incomes).

From my point of view, the only reason the Democrats have an advantage with the young is that it's been expressly their policy to control the education (or rather miseducation) of the young.  I mean the left controls education (overwhelmingly), the media (overwhelmingly) and even entertainment (overwhelmingly), which means people who've not been exposed to life are their primary voters. 

Why do we still even have Republican voters against that backdrop?  Oh yeah, cause reality starts getting in the way almost immediately.  When they get paid and start seeing their taxes, when they have kids and start caring about their safety and education, when they want to buy a house and start dealing with that mess and manipulation, when they want to found a business and spend massive amounts on compliance.  Sure they don't always examine why the government is in their way so much, but when they do that's where Republicans get their new voters.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Fenring on September 10, 2019, 01:37:04 PM
Why do we still even have Republican voters against that backdrop?  Oh yeah, cause reality starts getting in the way almost immediately.  When they get paid and start seeing their taxes, when they have kids and start caring about their safety and education, when they want to buy a house and start dealing with that mess and manipulation, when they want to found a business and spend massive amounts on compliance.  Sure they don't always examine why the government is in their way so much, but when they do that's where Republicans get their new voters.

But on the same token, the same processes that may cause people to be more right-leaning are also going to make them more afraid to lose what they have, even when change is needed. So these forces of stability are a boon and a danger at once; helping them protect what they have, but also gripping on to it for dear life even when safety is to be found in mobility.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 24, 2019, 04:05:01 PM
Things are starting to come clear.  Johnson has lost every vote in Parliament, has lost his majority so he can't pass any new laws, has been found to have lied to the queen and illegally prorogued Parliament, has been declared to be an ineffectual Prime Minister by the EU leadership, refuses to step down from his position, won't put forward any formal plan to avoid a No-Deal Brexit, and would rather "die in a ditch" than ask for an extension from the EU to come up with a plan.  Has anyone else noticed that he and Donald Trump are never photographed standing next to each other?  Isn't it obvious why?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on September 24, 2019, 06:01:39 PM
It's funny, cause you're right, older people (who've gotten experience) are the ones that keep voting Republican, that care about their rights and their taxes (since they have incomes).

More likely because they are senile. Breakdown (https://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1-trends-in-party-affiliation-among-demographic-groups/)
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on September 24, 2019, 06:04:16 PM
I didn't read the High Court opinion, but it sounds like they went with substance over formalism, which I generally think is a good thing.  Dirty procedural tricks have become an American way of life, but they are not generally good things.

Kasandra, you have a good point (not about Trump/Johnson) but about Boris having no majority for his government.  Almost seems like there should be a general election, don't you think?  But no, procedural tricks are going to win the day there too, because the coalition doesn't trust the populace to not give Boris his majority.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 24, 2019, 09:37:23 PM
I didn't read the High Court opinion, but it sounds like they went with substance over formalism, which I generally think is a good thing.  Dirty procedural tricks have become an American way of life, but they are not generally good things.

Kasandra, you have a good point (not about Trump/Johnson) but about Boris having no majority for his government.  Almost seems like there should be a general election, don't you think?  But no, procedural tricks are going to win the day there too, because the coalition doesn't trust the populace to not give Boris his majority.
A general election is process, not substance.  That won't fix anything, since the electorate has become about as divided and irreconcilable over there as ours is here.  I think it's time for the queen to step in and take charge.  She's got 70 years of experience as a monarch and Boris has only 2 months as a dictator.  FWIW, I'm only being half-facetious, but you'll have to figure out which half that is.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on September 25, 2019, 07:59:27 AM
[Seriati:] "The electoral college has a specific purpose that's factually a good thing for a nation."

It may have been back at the dawn, but only because the Founders had a profound and somewhat well-placed mistrust of citizen electors, even though people are just as dumb, misinformed and easily conned today as back then.  At that time Senators were also appointed by the state governments for the same reason.  The only reason to keep the electoral college these days is to provide a small bias in favor of small states like Wyoming and Montana who get an electoral bump from their two Senators.  IMO, we should keep the electoral college system, but change it so that electoral votes are awarded proportionally to the popular vote in the state (rounded to nearest integers).  It's a whole 'nother discussion how to implement it, but it's pretty easy to understand.  We should wait to have that discussion until we've moved the vote for President to a Ranked Choice Vote (RCV) system, which is a necessary and long overdue step.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on September 25, 2019, 06:52:19 PM
I didn't read the High Court opinion, but it sounds like they went with substance over formalism, which I generally think is a good thing.  Dirty procedural tricks have become an American way of life, but they are not generally good things.

Kasandra, you have a good point (not about Trump/Johnson) but about Boris having no majority for his government.  Almost seems like there should be a general election, don't you think?  But no, procedural tricks are going to win the day there too, because the coalition doesn't trust the populace to not give Boris his majority.

I find it mind boggling that there been an election or at least have the Queen ask someone else to form a government. But apparently Westminister is set up so the PM can both have and not have the confidence of Parliament at the same time. Well, have the confidence of parliament enough to be Prime Minister but not enough to actually do anything.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: D.W. on September 25, 2019, 07:34:27 PM
In all politics I think the base line is a large block of people content with doing nothing.  :)  You gotta keep on your toes when everyone wants to do "something".
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on October 09, 2019, 03:01:49 AM
Donald Tusk to BoJo:

“What’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game. At stake is the future of Europe and the UK as well as the security and interests of our people. You don’t want a deal, you don’t want an extension, you don’t want to revoke. Quo vadis?.”

It gets harder every day to believe that both Donald Trump and BoJo are leading two of the world's premiere democracies at the very same moment in time.  It's as if the two are engaged in a race to the bottom to see who can reduce world order to rubble first.  The only way Trump can outdo BoJo's latest would be to, say, on a whim tell Turkey to go ahead and invade Syria to wipe out the Kurdish Peshmerga and release the ISIS soldiers from the camps where they are being held.  That'll never happen.  No one would believe he would be that stupid.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: D.W. on October 09, 2019, 10:05:06 AM
I'm sure he's got that covered.  Any day now he'll tweet that the kurds should just execute all their prisoners before they abandon the sites.   ::)
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on October 19, 2019, 09:28:55 AM
BoJo has reached a broken deal with the EU on the terms for managing the Irish problem (an upgrade from the Irish Troubles).  It should be up to the people who voted for and against Brexit 3 years ago to decide if this resembles the outcome they thought they were voting on.  There are protesters on the streets in London today who voted for Brexit and are outraged that the information they were given that informed their vote was often wrong and sometimes critically corrupt, and this result is nothing like what they thought they were hoping to achieve.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on October 19, 2019, 03:02:27 PM
And another failed vote for Johnson. I don't think he's gotten anything passed Parliament. How on earth is he still Prime Minister?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on October 19, 2019, 03:31:16 PM
And another failed vote for Johnson. I don't think he's gotten anything passed Parliament. How on earth is he still Prime Minister?

Fair play to him, he got 1 put of his first 9 votes passed.

This is the equivalent of the House being the end all of government and the first nine votes Pelosi gets she only wins one despite there being enough people in to vote her leader.

What a circus.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on October 19, 2019, 03:35:25 PM
Spoiler alert - the Tories tried to make Theresa May their scapegoat for the Brexit fallout, she didn't last long enough, so they've shifted that honour to Johnson.

Ya'll complain the media sets Trump up to fail in the States, but BJ's own party used his own ego and power hungryness to set him up. His own party.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on October 19, 2019, 03:58:31 PM
Spoiler alert - the Tories tried to make Theresa May their scapegoat for the Brexit fallout, she didn't last long enough, so they've shifted that honour to Johnson.

Ya'll complain the media sets Trump up to fail in the States, but BJ's own party used his own ego and power hungryness to set him up. His own party.
Proving we still have things to learn from our English fathers :).
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on October 19, 2019, 05:53:50 PM
And another failed vote for Johnson. I don't think he's gotten anything passed Parliament. How on earth is he still Prime Minister?
Fair play to him, he got 1 put of his first 9 votes passed.
Not to nitpick, but:
"Boris Johnson is a prime minister without a mandate. He has never faced an election and has lost every vote he has put to the House of Commons. Yet time and again he has proved his willingness to ride roughshod over parliament in order to get his way."

If that's not Trumpian, I don't know what is.  FWIW, until I saw a picture of the two of them side by side at the UN, I wasn't completely convinced..........
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on October 21, 2019, 10:01:43 AM
The way I read this is still the same.  A majority of Parliament wants to ignore the Brexit.  There's no way to complete a deal against the backdrop.  Hence the need for an election, either give the Brexiteers the mandate to finish, or make it clear they will never have the mandate.

I'm still a bit stunned that Boris managed to actually get the EU to make concessions towards a reasonable deal by the deadlines imposed.  Notwithstanding, Kasandra's complaints it's a big improvement over the prior arrangement and seems to have been a good compromise that covered everyone's sacred cows.  At this point, the best thing for the UK would be for the EU to reject the extension.  That would leave them with very specific options and force them to make a choice.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on October 21, 2019, 10:36:46 AM
I don't see DUP supporting Boris deal. I don't see anything passing parliament without their support.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on October 28, 2019, 09:19:52 AM
Brexit IV - election time

Do voters really want another general election? (https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50206341)

I'm just glad we can't have extra bonus elections in the US. The UK will now have 3 elections in 4 years - plus this one will come right before the holiday.

So maybe Boris picks up a few Brexiteers, and he can get his deal passed. If he doesn't, however, it seems really unclear what comes next. If they lose enough seats, perhaps Labour would form a majority government. That still leaves Brexit in the air, though, does it not? Some say that they would call a new referendum. Which would probably require yet another extension from the EU. If there is a Leave under Labour, they'd probably stay in the customs union and the common market.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on October 28, 2019, 10:14:45 AM
I think this election is effectively a second referendum.  The deals on the table, if they give Boris and his allies a majority it'll go through.  If not, they give Labour and it's allies a majority and Brexit probably gets rescinded.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on October 28, 2019, 10:18:47 AM
They'll probably give neither side a majority. Why should the electorate be any more decisive than anyone else in this mess?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DonaldD on October 28, 2019, 10:32:53 AM
You don't need even close to a majority of votes to win a majority in parliament, although the mix of regional players in the UK does make it unlikely this time around.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on October 28, 2019, 10:33:46 AM
Wasn't trying to imply a majority for a party, only a majority for one side or the other.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on October 28, 2019, 10:48:09 AM
That suggests MPs know which side they're on. If I'm reading the tea leaves right, the two biggest parties are split between three plans for Brexit. Supporters of each plan are likely to declare any minority results means their side won.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on October 28, 2019, 05:04:01 PM
And... Johnson loses again. He doesn't get his election.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on October 28, 2019, 05:17:44 PM
Well, maybe, but he's calling a vote again tomorrow that apparently only needs a majority rather than 2/3's, and that has more support than this one.  I don't even remotely pretend to understand their system.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on October 29, 2019, 01:51:49 PM
Interesting maneuver

Quote
No 10 says it will abandon its latest attempt if MPs support giving 16 and 17-year olds and EU nationals the vote.

Labour has said it will back any amendment calling for these groups to be allowed to take part in the proposed election.

Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on October 29, 2019, 11:50:32 PM
And now they agreed to a December 12th general election.  Choice is clearer, vote for pro-Brexit candidates and it's done, vote for the anti-s and it's probably over (though 100% chance the EU is not going to forgive the slight).
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on October 30, 2019, 07:04:56 AM
Bozo it is. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-30/u-k-economy-projected-to-be-3-5-smaller-under-johnson-s-deal)
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on October 30, 2019, 09:49:32 AM
It's tough to trust projectitive economics when they are based on assumptions that may not be valid.  Pretty by definition they will return a smaller result other models the opposing, whether reality agrees with one or the other remains to be decided.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on October 30, 2019, 04:57:55 PM
It's tough to trust projectitive economics when they are based on assumptions that may not be valid.  Pretty by definition they will return a smaller result other models the opposing, whether reality agrees with one or the other remains to be decided.
You mean just economic predictions, which explains why Trump's claims about his economic miracles have turned out to be so laughably wrong.  In fact, every time he mentions money, he turns out to be wrong, even when he's "predicting the past" or the present.  One wonders if Bojo didn't study at his feet.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on October 30, 2019, 05:16:52 PM
Not sure what you're talking about, with Trump, it's pretty clear the doomsayer's predictions were more wrong.  I mean, alot of what the left's economists predicted turned out to be literally backwards, things they said were impossible turned out to be not so impossible.

In any event, the actual reality is that no one really knows for sure what the Brexit impact will be in as little as 2-3 years, let alone 5-10, and I think the predictions that the UK is going to worse off than in staying in the increasingly regulatory EU is a bit nonsensical.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on October 31, 2019, 08:57:48 AM
Not sure what you're talking about, with Trump, it's pretty clear the doomsayer's predictions were more wrong.  I mean, alot of what the left's economists predicted turned out to be literally backwards, things they said were impossible turned out to be not so impossible.
If an economist disagrees with Trump's policies s/he's consigned to be a leftist?  Can't they just be Nobel prize winners with PhD's and decades of knowledge and experience?  It could be that you've been listening to Ron Vara instead.

You really aren't aware that Trump's policies are crap and he relies on economic policy advisors who probably can't make change for a dollar?  I'll tell you why they've been such miserable failures and who Ron Vara really is if you don't know how to find out about those things for yourself.  Didn't you even consider checking the facts before showing off the beautiful orange sunburn you've gotten from basking in the glow of Trump's genius?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on November 20, 2019, 06:42:46 AM
The end of the UK might be the inevitable result of the never-ending confusion about what Brexit is supposed to bring about.  If they don't know what that is, why have a UK at all? (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-20/the-breakup-of-the-united-kingdom-might-be-near-amid-brexit?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=191120&utm_campaign=bop) Scotland, Northern Ireland and even Wales are considering leaving.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 14, 2019, 07:37:09 AM
The pundits are all rushing to explain the unexpectedly solid Conservative victory and Labour defeat as if it was inevitable, as if they had seen it coming without ever having said so beforehand.

Anybody here surprised, not surprised?  For me, I expected it to be a close election that Johnson would win, nothing like the result we're seeing.

What happens next is even more opaque.  I think Scotland will vote on separation again and this time succeed, bitterness across the UK will dominate the mood as the country backs away from its global position near the top of the economic food chain.

The wider implications fit with the general global retreat from integrated economic agreements.  We'll see protectionist and punitive tariffs, country-to-country trade deals, along with weaker support in the western hemisphere for political alliances, fragmenting of mutual military support organizations.

The beneficiaries of all this economic and political churn will be Russia and China.  Russia because they will eat away at those alliances and China because they will simply make deals with everybody.

UK, you're going down, but take heart that you're not going down alone.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: ScottF on December 14, 2019, 12:24:16 PM
I don't know UK politics well, but wouldn't "bitterness" usually dominate the mood for the minority who just got their collective butt handed to them?

What are the early indicators you're seeing that lead you to think the UK will significantly lose world economic standing? i.e. measurable things.

Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on December 14, 2019, 12:40:52 PM
What are the chances BoJo still manages to lose his next vote in Parliament?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 14, 2019, 08:53:25 PM
I don't know UK politics well, but wouldn't "bitterness" usually dominate the mood for the minority who just got their collective butt handed to them?

What are the early indicators you're seeing that lead you to think the UK will significantly lose world economic standing? i.e. measurable things.
Loss of manufacturing as companies move factories to EU countries, loss of investment opportunities in UK as financial resources are moved to other countries, more difficulty importing foreign goods due to customs and taxes, devaluation of UK currency, etc....

Bitterness doesn't have to be the response of those who lose, but in this case there are no winners.  A sizable portion of the electorate picked Johnson because he seems to have a specific vision and undilineated but hard goal with Brexit.  Corbyn came across as feckless.  A lot of traditional Labour voters who voted for Johnson said they aren't abandoning Labour, just its leadership.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: ScottF on December 14, 2019, 11:38:38 PM
I don't know UK politics well, but wouldn't "bitterness" usually dominate the mood for the minority who just got their collective butt handed to them?

What are the early indicators you're seeing that lead you to think the UK will significantly lose world economic standing? i.e. measurable things.
Loss of manufacturing as companies move factories to EU countries, loss of investment opportunities in UK as financial resources are moved to other countries, more difficulty importing foreign goods due to customs and taxes, devaluation of UK currency, etc....

The sterling appears strong and has risen against the euro, moreso since the vote. I was looking for measurable indicators but you seem to simply be listing the things you feel are bound to happen.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 15, 2019, 05:52:32 AM
I guess I'm not sure what sort of thing you're asking for. AFAIK, no country has made any sort of statement about how they will respond, and the outcome will be guided by the specifics of BoJo's exit program.

I think we can account for the slight bounce in the pound because there is a bit more clarity.  I would call it stable rather than strong for the moment, and it will rise or fall as the deal becomes apparent.  People simply want to know more and now they at least know they will be leaving. 
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 15, 2019, 10:30:53 AM
Europe, perhaps Macron, might always decide to not require the UK do what it hates to stay in United Europe.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: ScottF on December 15, 2019, 10:39:34 AM
Ok that's reasonable. If most of those things that you're worried about don't happen over the next year or two will you still consider it a bad decision?

I'm trying to get a sense for the voters over there and if they voted more along pragmatic lines (e.g. economic effects, immigration implications, etc.) vs symbolic/emotional (being part of "one Europe" vs solidarity and independence).

The only thing I have to personally compare it to Quebec's secession vote way back in 1995. It narrowly failed (no separation from Canada). The joke was that if the vote had been put to the rest of the country it would have won in a landslide.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: DJQuag on December 15, 2019, 10:48:28 AM
My man Jonathan Pie lays down the truth.

https://youtu.be/G0nIhL4v6bY

People need to understand that this vote was a protest vote. For three plus years the entire media and parliamentary opinion has been focused on Brexit. So it's only natural that a subset of people who would never, ever, vote for the party of the rich/old would change their vote if only so Brexit could finally be done with and the declining social system could be addressed.

Will said social system be addressed in a way that pleases said voters by that party? I wouldn't quite bet my life against it but I would bet a whole lot of money. Fact is the Conservatives have ruled for close to a decade here and living standards for the lower class have continually declined. I'm not sure why I should believe they'd start caring now. The entire history of the Tory party has been taking care care of London and anywhere a couple hours drive away.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: ScottF on December 15, 2019, 11:01:17 AM
That was actually pretty good. He doesn't say it, but the corollaries to how Trump won (and will probably win again) in the US is scary.

"Depressingly predictable result, and yet the left is shocked. How could this possibly happen? Everyone I know voted the same way I did."

Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 16, 2019, 02:50:05 PM
How's this for accuracy, djquag?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tinyDe7tAW4
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 16, 2019, 03:08:47 PM
Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution

Is there any substance to that?  If so please offer specifics.  If not, please signal by silence or additional vague handwaving.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on December 16, 2019, 03:11:27 PM
Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution

Is there any substance to that?  If so please offer specifics.  If not, please signal by silence or additional vague handwaving.

At the time of the quote, it was this..


Quote
So “egregious” was the overreach, a Scottish court said this week, that it did something no British court ever had before: It ruled that the prime minister had misled the public and unlawfully advised the queen on a suspension of Parliament, abusing some of the loftiest powers he had to clear his path of recalcitrant anti-Brexit lawmakers.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 16, 2019, 03:22:20 PM
Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution

Is there any substance to that?  If so please offer specifics.  If not, please signal by silence or additional vague handwaving.

At the time of the quote, it was this..


Quote
So “egregious” was the overreach, a Scottish court said this week, that it did something no British court ever had before: It ruled that the prime minister had misled the public and unlawfully advised the queen on a suspension of Parliament, abusing some of the loftiest powers he had to clear his path of recalcitrant anti-Brexit lawmakers.

Good night. Recommended suspension of Parliament to the Queen?  Horrible.  Shameful.  The British constitution should forbid such horrors. But does it? 

Note it's the court that's doing something "no British court ever had before."  No evidence so far that Boris has done something no British Prime Minister has done before.  Did the court elsewhere say what Kass said, that these things violate Britain's unwritten constitution.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on December 16, 2019, 04:07:28 PM
I don't know what an unwritten constitution is, or how you could define it other than moral tradition. Not such is needed in this case, as the UK Supreme Court ruled it illegal.

Quote
Judges said it was wrong to stop MPs carrying out duties in the run-up to the Brexit deadline on 31 October.

The PM, who has faced calls to resign, said he "profoundly disagreed" with the ruling but would "respect" it.

The Labour conference finished early following the ruling and MPs are returning to Westminster ready for Parliament to reconvene on Wednesday.

A senior government official said the prime minister spoke to the Queen after the Supreme Court ruling, but would not reveal the details of the conversation.

It comes after the court ruled it was impossible to conclude there had been any reason "let alone a good reason - to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament for five weeks".
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 07:50:48 AM
Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution

Is there any substance to that?  If so please offer specifics.  If not, please signal by silence or additional vague handwaving.
Read up before dismissing my comment.  You don't know about his prorogue or intent to violate the Benn Bill?  He now runs the government, so without a real Constitution pretty much anything he does is Constitutional.  Think of it how Trump will run the US after the impeachment trial fails to convict him, only we'll be in far worse shape.  [Think of that last comment as vague handwaving if you like.]
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 07:52:36 AM
"Did the court elsewhere say what Kass said, that these things violate Britain's unwritten constitution."

Since you ask, what is the UK's unwritten Constitution?  Even better if you can point to a written one.

Also, please refer to me by the name I have chosen for myself.  You have a long history of assigning pet names to people and to me specifically, which I objected to when you did.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDeamon on December 17, 2019, 09:41:20 AM
Think of it how Trump will run the US after the impeachment trial fails to convict him, only we'll be in far worse shape.  [Think of that last comment as vague handwaving if you like.]

That's not hand-waving, that's full blown tin-foil hatter territory there.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 09:47:01 AM
Kassandra, you shouldn’t go saying he violated the unwritten constitution if you don’t even know what the unwritten constitution is, or people will call you Jefe.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 09:47:36 AM
Think of it how Trump will run the US after the impeachment trial fails to convict him, only we'll be in far worse shape.  [Think of that last comment as vague handwaving if you like.]

That's not hand-waving, that's full blown tin-foil hatter territory there.
It constantly amazes me that some people look at how Trump executes his executive responsibilities and shrug.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 09:50:54 AM
Kassandra, you shouldn’t go saying he violated the unwritten constitution if you don’t even know what the unwritten constitution is, or people will call you Jefe.
There's only one 's' in my name.  You don't think the Scottish Supreme Court called what he did a violation of the unwritten Constitution?   

Lady Hale said,

"The decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification."

What do you think she was referring to?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDeamon on December 17, 2019, 09:55:19 AM
Think of it how Trump will run the US after the impeachment trial fails to convict him, only we'll be in far worse shape.  [Think of that last comment as vague handwaving if you like.]

That's not hand-waving, that's full blown tin-foil hatter territory there.
It constantly amazes me that some people look at how Trump executes his executive responsibilities and shrug.

So very eight years ago for me. Of course, Trump is also far more of a paper tiger than a lot of people want to make him out to be.

If Obama couldn't pull it off, Trump sure as *bleep* isn't going to do it.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 09:57:17 AM
Kassandra, I didn’t “dismiss” your comment. I asked for specifics.  I thought, as vague, arrogant and dismissive as you behave, that you might actually have something to say if properly motivated. And I was right.  Thank you for the Ben bill reference. Now that you provided a googleable reference, your “read up before asking for specifics “ mandate isn’t completely useless.

Please feel free to abbreviate my name to Pete.  If anyone else is fastidious about abbreviations, let it be known.

Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 10:02:34 AM
Kassandra, you shouldn’t go saying he violated the unwritten constitution if you don’t even know what the unwritten constitution is, or people will call you Jefe.
There's only one 's' in my name.  You don't think the Scottish Supreme Court called what he did a violation of the unwritten Constitution?   

Lady Hale said,

"The decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification."

[snip]

Sigh. Kasandra, If you are going to cite authority for a conclusion of law,you need to reference it or people are going to think you pulled the opinion out of your gigantic tinfoil hat.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 10:04:47 AM
Kassandra, you shouldn’t go saying he violated the unwritten constitution if you don’t even know what the unwritten constitution is, or people will call you Jefe.
There's only one 's' in my name.  You don't think the Scottish Supreme Court called what he did a violation of the unwritten Constitution?   

Lady Hale said,

"The decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification."

[snip]

Sigh. If you are going to cite authority for a conclusion of law,you need to reference it or people are going to think you pulled the opinion out of your gigantic tinfoil hat.
I'm not a lawyer, so referencing the head of the Scottish Supreme Court seemed like enough authority for me.  Who has higher authority than she does and would have to say what she said for you to accept it?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 10:06:25 AM
Let's keep working on this: My name has one 's'.  I'm hopeful we'll keep making progress.

Thank you for correcting my spelling. You are welcome for correcting your deplorable failure to reference your claims.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 10:09:36 AM
Think of it how Trump will run the US after the impeachment trial fails to convict him, only we'll be in far worse shape.  [Think of that last comment as vague handwaving if you like.]

That's not hand-waving, that's full blown tin-foil hatter territory there.
It constantly amazes me that some people look at how Trump executes his executive responsibilities and shrug.

So very eight years ago for me. Of course, Trump is also far more of a paper tiger than a lot of people want to make him out to be.

If Obama couldn't pull it off, Trump sure as *bleep* isn't going to do it.
I'll be happy to bat around Trump's many virtues against Obama's, but in a separate thread.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDeamon on December 17, 2019, 10:20:37 AM
So very eight years ago for me. Of course, Trump is also far more of a paper tiger than a lot of people want to make him out to be.

If Obama couldn't pull it off, Trump sure as *bleep* isn't going to do it.
I'll be happy to bat around Trump's many virtues against Obama's, but in a separate thread.

Trump's the chintzy user-car salesman you don't trust further than you can throw him.

Obama was the smooth talking car salesman you expect to find at the BMW Dealership. You still couldn't trust him further than you could throw him, but he made you feel so much better about what he was peddling.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 10:31:50 AM
So very eight years ago for me. Of course, Trump is also far more of a paper tiger than a lot of people want to make him out to be.

If Obama couldn't pull it off, Trump sure as *bleep* isn't going to do it.
I'll be happy to bat around Trump's many virtues against Obama's, but in a separate thread.

Trump's the chintzy user-car salesman you don't trust further than you can throw him.

Obama was the smooth talking car salesman you expect to find at the BMW Dealership. You still couldn't trust him further than you could throw him, but he made you feel so much better about what he was peddling.

He also restrained his temper, even when his fellow lefties were screaming for blood.  That's real leadership.  Clinton or Trump would have gone all Janet Reno and slaughtered those Oregon protesters, made martyrs of them, invited another Oklahoma City.  Obama waited them out.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: ScottF on December 17, 2019, 10:33:35 AM
From one of my favorite UK twitter follows, Titania McGrath:

"In order to revitalise the Labour Party, we’re going to have to win over the hearts and minds of all those fascist racist misogynist working-class gammons who were too stupid to vote the correct way last time."
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 10:33:55 AM
Kassandra, you shouldn’t go saying he violated the unwritten constitution if you don’t even know what the unwritten constitution is, or people will call you Jefe.
There's only one 's' in my name.  You don't think the Scottish Supreme Court called what he did a violation of the unwritten Constitution?   

Lady Hale said,

"The decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification."

[snip]

Sigh. If you are going to cite authority for a conclusion of law,you need to reference it or people are going to think you pulled the opinion out of your gigantic tinfoil hat.
I'm not a lawyer, so referencing the head of the Scottish Supreme Court seemed like enough authority for me. 

Don't be dishonest.  You didn't mention her until I asked for specifics.  You should have referenced her in your original claim that Mojo BoJo violated the unwritten constitution. 
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 10:38:47 AM
So very eight years ago for me. Of course, Trump is also far more of a paper tiger than a lot of people want to make him out to be.

If Obama couldn't pull it off, Trump sure as *bleep* isn't going to do it.
I'll be happy to bat around Trump's many virtues against Obama's, but in a separate thread.

Trump's the chintzy user-car salesman you don't trust further than you can throw him.

Obama was the smooth talking car salesman you expect to find at the BMW Dealership. You still couldn't trust him further than you could throw him, but he made you feel so much better about what he was peddling.
All politicians have that in common, but the BMW salesman at least has a quality product to sell.  How many people refuse to hear any criticism of the chintzy car salesman who sold them a clunker?  About 50,000,000.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 10:38:57 AM
Here's Kasandra's referenced argument.  Note the total absence of any reference to support Kasandra's conclusion of law wrapped in a motive inference:

Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution and treat his opposition in Parliament is if it is a nuisance rather than a majority.  It's clear that Johnson is a bully like Trump, but unlike Trump he has no mandate or even an identified constituency.  He's trying to force his will onto people who truly are confused and his coercion isn't galvanizing people to follow his lead.  If anything, he's racking up opponents who simply don't trust anything he says.  That's another point of comparison with Trump, whose US constituency is eroding bit by bit with every dishonest, insincere, manipulative and self-aggrandizing tweet he issues.

The only reasonable expectation for the UK is that the Brexit process will continue to get worse and nobody knows how to make it get any better.  RIP as night falls on the Empire of the Sun.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 10:40:55 AM
From one of my favorite UK twitter follows, Titania McGrath:

"In order to revitalise the Labour Party, we’re going to have to win over the hearts and minds of all those fascist racist misogynist working-class gammons who were too stupid to vote the correct way last time."
Deep, very deep, so chortle away.  Corbyn was a poor leader with a disjointed and ineffectual platform.  Labour will have to regroup around a different leader and more coherent platform.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 10:42:28 AM
Kassandra, you shouldn’t go saying he violated the unwritten constitution if you don’t even know what the unwritten constitution is, or people will call you Jefe.
There's only one 's' in my name.  You don't think the Scottish Supreme Court called what he did a violation of the unwritten Constitution?   

Lady Hale said,

"The decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification."

[snip]

Sigh. If you are going to cite authority for a conclusion of law,you need to reference it or people are going to think you pulled the opinion out of your gigantic tinfoil hat.
I'm not a lawyer, so referencing the head of the Scottish Supreme Court seemed like enough authority for me. 

Don't be dishonest.  You didn't mention her until I asked for specifics.  You should have referenced her in your original claim that Mojo BoJo violated the unwritten constitution.
This isn't a classroom.  We don't have to show our work when we offer an opinion.  I was disappointed that you weren't able to come up with that on your own.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 10:48:29 AM
Kassandra, you shouldn’t go saying he violated the unwritten constitution if you don’t even know what the unwritten constitution is, or people will call you Jefe.
There's only one 's' in my name.  You don't think the Scottish Supreme Court called what he did a violation of the unwritten Constitution?   

Lady Hale said,

"The decision to advise Her Majesty to prorogue Parliament was unlawful because it had the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions without reasonable justification."

[snip]

Sigh. If you are going to cite authority for a conclusion of law,you need to reference it or people are going to think you pulled the opinion out of your gigantic tinfoil hat.
I'm not a lawyer, so referencing the head of the Scottish Supreme Court seemed like enough authority for me. 

Don't be dishonest.  You didn't mention her until I asked for specifics.  You should have referenced her in your original claim that Mojo BoJo violated the unwritten constitution.
This isn't a classroom. We don't have to show our work when we offer an opinion.  I was disappointed that you weren't able to come up with that on your own.

Kind of hypocritical for you to add that pedantic "disappointed" line after you whined that this "isn't a classroom," and repeatedly complained about a minor spelling error (ss instead of s).

Unlike you I don't come up with facts "on my own."  Like civilized discursants, I use specific references to search for information.  And until you mentioned the Scottish Supreme Court, you'd given nothing to go on. 

Quote
We don't have to show our work when we offer an opinion.

Quite true.  I thought you were asserting a legal conclusion when you said that BoJo had violated the constitution.  If you'd said that in your opinion, BoJo had violated the constitution, then I'd not have responded; I'd have said to myself, there she goes again.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: NobleHunter on December 17, 2019, 10:55:37 AM
Anyone else having forum flashbacks?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 11:02:17 AM
Anyone else having forum flashbacks?

Aye.  It's very hard to call her by her new name since her antics are patented under her old name.  When I start doing my antics under a different name, I get suspended.  Lady's privilege, I suppose.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 11:17:40 AM
Quote
   I was disappointed that you weren't able to come up with that on your own

You’re not my real mama!
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Fenring on December 17, 2019, 11:21:18 AM
Anyone else having forum flashbacks?

Aye.  It's very hard to call her by her new name since her antics are patented under her old name.  When I start doing my antics under a different name, I get suspended.  Lady's privilege, I suppose.

Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but I thought she was a he. Or is this a pronoun thing?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 17, 2019, 11:33:27 AM

Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but I thought she was a he. Or is this a pronoun thing?

Does Kasandra have a preferred pronoun?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on December 17, 2019, 12:26:30 PM
Aye.  It's very hard to call her by her new name since her antics are patented under her old name.  When I start doing my antics under a different name, I get suspended.  Lady's privilege, I suppose.

To be fair, I don't think it's ever been accepted to use 2 names at the same time, particularly if you start conversing with yourself.

I was struck by how much of the quote you shared but didn't highlight turned out to not have been accurate:

Here's Kasandra's referenced argument.  Note the total absence of any reference to support Kasandra's conclusion of law wrapped in a motive inference:

Johnson is doing his best to undermine Britain's unwritten constitution and treat his opposition in Parliament is if it is a nuisance rather than a majority.  It's clear that Johnson is a bully like Trump, but unlike Trump he has no mandate or even an identified constituency.

I'd say that the take away from the election is that he does have an identifiable constituency and a mandate, and that was made clear in spite of him being unlikable by a large number of people.  In fact, I think it's striking that the former "majority" of Parliament (even though it really wasn't) is who did not have a true mandate in their pattern of ceaseless obstruction.

Quote
He's trying to force his will onto people who truly are confused and his coercion isn't galvanizing people to follow his lead.  If anything, he's racking up opponents who simply don't trust anything he says.
]

This only makes sense if you're referring to MPs, if you actually mean the people who elected them it looks like they knew more about what they wanted than their MPs were willing to listen too.   The EU's problem has always been an arrogance of its elites believing they knew what was good for the "commoners" better than the commoners.  Taking seats away from Labour that have been held by Labour for decades (in at least one case since the seat was formed), kind of emphasizes that whether you think they should or not, it's the people that get to dictate the political authority not the politicians. 

And I grant, it's very odd for the Conservatives to be making inroads with working stiffs in the UK, it'll be interesting to see if they deliver.  There is an odd parallel to Trump there, with his express, intentional policies of delivering economic results to working class and minorities that have been promised things by the left for years that were never delivered.

Quote
That's another point of comparison with Trump, whose US constituency is eroding bit by bit with every dishonest, insincere, manipulative and self-aggrandizing tweet he issues.

I guess it remains to be seen with Trump (though it seems unlikely that there is an "erosion" given his absolutely stable approval numbers), but it's clear this was not the case with Boris. 

Quote
The only reasonable expectation for the UK is that the Brexit process will continue to get worse and nobody knows how to make it get any better.  RIP as night falls on the Empire of the Sun.

Or one could look at it and say that the Brexit process was mostly terrible because of the uncertainty involved, largely as a result of the delay and resist at all costs position of the opposition, and that doing it any way was better than the uncertainty.  It remains to be seen if Boris's way will make it better, but it does at least wipe away the uncertainty.

I'm totally fascinated by the utter conviction that those predicting economic disaster have.  They have no basis for it, often the "consequences" they foresee have already been foreseen by others, and planned for, and the assertions of what will happen are always the worst case view.  There's a lot of uncertainty and possibility here, but little reason to think it's going to all go negative when you have an populace that's still actively interested in working to make their lives better. 

It's in the US and the Chinese interests to give the UK a good deal, and to give the EU a good deal, maybe even to polarize them.  But little chance that having the two largest economic powers interested in and excited about new opportunities is going to push the global economy down.  But who really knows.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on December 17, 2019, 12:49:55 PM
Quote
There is an odd parallel to Trump there, with his express, intentional policies of delivering economic results to working class and minorities that have been promised things by the left for years that were never delivered.

Which policies? Giant tax breaks to mega corporations? Ill advised trade wars offset by massive subsidies?

Now, mind you, I categorically deny that any president can move the economy through policy, and if things go south I will largely avoid blaming Trump unless the move can be directly tied to an action he took.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Fenring on December 17, 2019, 01:09:55 PM
Now, mind you, I categorically deny that any president can move the economy through policy, and if things go south I will largely avoid blaming Trump unless the move can be directly tied to an action he took.

In terms of short-term ups and downs you are probably right. But it would seem far-fetched to deny that participating in agreements such as NAFTA and the trade agreements with Asian countries has significant effects on the economy. And these are surely agreements that can largely be chalked up, if not to the President's initiative, at least to the President's consent. Consider the recently-destroyed TPP that the elites kept trying to push through: that wouldn't have massively affected the economy? And that was a high-level initiate, definitely involving the President, to the point where the POTUS' participation would have easily been enough to make or break it for all countries involved.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 01:10:48 PM

Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but I thought she was a he. Or is this a pronoun thing?

Does Kasandra have a preferred pronoun?
IRL, yes.  However, if you feel more deferential toward one or another, feel free to think of me that way.  We're all shadows, anyway.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 01:22:36 PM
Quote
There is an odd parallel to Trump there, with his express, intentional policies of delivering economic results to working class and minorities that have been promised things by the left for years that were never delivered.
Yet another driveby derogation of "the left".  Name one policy that Trump has implemented that "delivers economic results" to those groups.   How about:

Healthcare (it would be easy -- not!)?
Education (Screw people expecting loan forgiveness)?
Tax reform (if you're a rich worker or corporation)? 
Trade tariffs (farm bankruptcies highest since 2011)? 
Payroll protections (rollbacks of pay protection guarantees, anti-union policies, mandatory arbitration)? 
Retirement savings (rescinding rules forcing investors to work in the best interests of their clients)? 
...

Whew, my typing arm is getting tired!
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: ScottF on December 17, 2019, 02:21:48 PM
Yet another driveby derogation of "the left".  Name one policy that Trump has implemented that "delivers economic results" to those groups.   How about:

Healthcare (it would be easy -- not!)?
Education (Screw people expecting loan forgiveness)?
Tax reform (if you're a rich worker or corporation)? 
Trade tariffs (farm bankruptcies highest since 2011)? 
Payroll protections (rollbacks of pay protection guarantees, anti-union policies, mandatory arbitration)? 
Retirement savings (rescinding rules forcing investors to work in the best interests of their clients)? 
...

Whew, my typing arm is getting tired!

Dang, now you're making me wonder just how amazing the economy, unemployment and rising wages would be if we had someone who actually knew what they were doing.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDeamon on December 17, 2019, 03:09:57 PM
...Which isn't anybody running for President in 2020.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 17, 2019, 04:22:05 PM
Quote
Dang, now you're making me wonder just how amazing the economy, unemployment and rising wages would be if we had someone who actually knew what they were doing.
Try to focus on what those items are really saying.  If you need help, pick one and I'll explain it to you.  First, tell me what state you live in.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Ouija Nightmare on December 17, 2019, 04:43:44 PM
Yet another driveby derogation of "the left".  Name one policy that Trump has implemented that "delivers economic results" to those groups.   How about:

Healthcare (it would be easy -- not!)?
Education (Screw people expecting loan forgiveness)?
Tax reform (if you're a rich worker or corporation)? 
Trade tariffs (farm bankruptcies highest since 2011)? 
Payroll protections (rollbacks of pay protection guarantees, anti-union policies, mandatory arbitration)? 
Retirement savings (rescinding rules forcing investors to work in the best interests of their clients)? 
...

Whew, my typing arm is getting tired!

Dang, now you're making me wonder just how amazing the economy, unemployment and rising wages would be if we had someone who actually knew what they were doing.

I’d be more impressed if it were not coupled with runaway deficit spending as if we were in a recession.

Ahh the good old days when patriotic duty started with paying your damn taxes.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on December 17, 2019, 05:12:03 PM
Quote
There is an odd parallel to Trump there, with his express, intentional policies of delivering economic results to working class and minorities that have been promised things by the left for years that were never delivered.
Yet another driveby derogation of "the left".  Name one policy that Trump has implemented that "delivers economic results" to those groups.

Sure, tax relief, focus on returning American jobs, which increased both manufacturing jobs and all jobs generally, focus on freeing American ingenuity to operate.  There's a reason unemployment is historically low and inflation hasn't jumped through the roof.  There's a reason every minority group is at record low unemployment.  There's a reason that real wage growth is occuring and that the poor are seeing improvements in their situations.  It isn't decades of unfulfilled Democratic promises on handouts.

Quote
How about:

Healthcare (it would be easy -- not!)?

What has Trump done to harm Healthcare?  Seriously.  This is near impossible to fix.  There is absolutely no will to fix it.  Lie to yourself all you want the Dems won't agree to any fix, whether it works or not, unless it gets more healthcare under government control and makes more people dependent on hand outs.  It's just a simple truth, they've been buying votes for so long they see anything that actually works to make people independent as a threat to their own power.
 
And this is 100% reflected in the Dem candidate's announced policies, very heavy on the hand outs, and no sense whatsoever when it comes to paying for it, heck a lot of them just lie about the impact on the middle class and poor.  You know I don't trust economist's predictions, but I saw an article saying that the market should expect a 10% negative contraction if Warren is elected.  Talk about misery.

Quote
Education (Screw people expecting loan forgiveness)?

School choice.  The left only opposes it because the teacher's union owns them, even though it hurts their own minority constituents.  You'll note too how rarely the affluent left lets their children be harmed by public schools.  They always live in school districts with good teacher, and even then send their kids to private schools, yet they oppose school choice?  They get it themselves by moving, and then lecture those who don't have the economic means to use that option themselves and have kids stuck in and harmed by failing schools.

As for loan forgiveness, it's a garbage solution to a garbage problem the left created.  Every time the left authorized more loan guaranties to ensure that everyone could "afford" a college education, and to ensure a steady flow of guaranteed government money to the schools, the schools reacted by raising their tuitions and hiring more and more administrators.    Not one of those programs held those schools accountable for the lack of success of their students.  Now that they've created a monster (and they were behind the loan guarantees and bankruptcy protection to ensure that lenders would enter into the market without consideration for the qualification of the student - how else does a student get $250k in loans to major in basket weaving).  The "only" solution of course is to take it over with more government, free college, and government paying for all the loans.  More free stuff, promised if you elect the Dems, paid for by someone else (really we promise, someone else, just don't actually think about he economics - oh wait, you're not going to major in that anyway).

Can't allow any correction in the higher education market since it's totally controlled by the left, and supports massive and bloated amounts of reliable blue voters.
 
Quote
Tax reform (if you're a rich worker or corporation)?

Tax reform delivered benefits to everyone in the lower 80% and only some of those in the upper 20%.   Corporate tax reforms has brought massive amounts of equity capital back into the country, boosting the economy and created massive job growth - exactly what the left always claims that government spending will do (but that it fails to do as effectively).
 
Quote
Trade tariffs (farm bankruptcies highest since 2011)?

Leading to improvements in trade deals and resurgence in jobs in American industries the left declared were gone for ever.
 
Quote
Payroll protections (rollbacks of pay protection guarantees, anti-union policies, mandatory arbitration)?

Not sure what you're referring to here, but at least for unions the correction was long over due.  The left hasn't been out of the union pockets in my life time and it wouldn't be inaccurate to say that most every policy they push has a thumb on the scale in what should be a balanced equation.
 
Quote
Retirement savings (rescinding rules forcing investors to work in the best interests of their clients)?

That's just a gross mischaracterization.  Just because someone puts "best interest" in the name of a rule doesn't mean that's what it actually does.  Go to any registered investment adviser and they are required to treat you as a fiduciary with your interests ahead of theirs.  Go to a broker and they are only required to determine if a product is suitable before they can sell it to you.  Pick the person you need.
 
Quote
Whew, my typing arm is getting tired!

I don't believe that.  Again, despite the failed promises of the left, it's Trump that's bringing real wage growth, real job opportunities, prison reform, and renewed focus on improving the impoverished places where the poor live (opportunity zone legislation).  Maybe talk to some people in that demographic, they are much more optimistic than they were under the previous administration.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 08:34:39 AM
Seriati, your writing arm never seems to tire.  I want to respond (as briefly as possible, but not moreso) to each of your points, which I will do later today, but I'll make a general comment now.  Virtually everything Trump does is transactional and aims for short-term results at the expense of long-term benefits, despite his great claims to the contrary (6% GDP growth, anybody?).  Many of those things actually will end up costing vastly more later than is saved or generated now.  Some highlights that affect all Americans except the most wealthy...

He has weakened public support for health care rather than reformed or strengthened it, done nothing for infrastructure despite great claims, lowered taxes mostly for the very wealthy who buy assets rather than add jobs, cut programs or reduced benefits across the federal system and still added more to the national debt than any President in history, created tariffs on imported goods that raised costs for importers and consumers, leading to reduced foreign exports due to retaliatory tariffs, which together have increased the trade deficit.

If you want to give him credit, you have to acknowledge that many of the positive trends seen over the past two years are continuations of trends that began under Obama.  But you won't, of course.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Crunch on December 18, 2019, 10:23:25 AM
We have to acknowledge that, after a recession, jobs and economic numbers bounce back. That’s like taking credit for the sunrise.

It was the Bush economy for 8 years. We were supposed to get used to it, that was the new normal. Now that Trump policies are delivering the best economy in America history, you’re gonna claim we’re finally seeing the Obama economy. Remember when electing Trump was going to destroy the economy? The stock market was gonna crash! Everything was gonna fail. Obama said Trump would need a magic wand to do this!  Remember all that bull*censored*? Now that you’re proven wrong, you just keep going as if none of that ever happened.

Inevitably, economic expansions will stop and we’ll get some contraction. At that point, you’ll insist it’s the Trump economy, won’t you? That’s like predicting sunset.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Ouija Nightmare on December 18, 2019, 10:56:26 AM
We have to acknowledge that, after a recession, jobs and economic numbers bounce back. That’s like taking credit for the sunrise.


This isn’t true. Things don’t always better. China was the greatest empire for ages ...then declined for generations. People are going to be waiting a long time for the Roman Empire to come back.

The current Republic is showing signs that it’s time as a Democracy is at an end.

There isn’t some natural order that always results in improvement.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 11:03:42 AM
Crunch, to the extent that I understand your point, Obama can't take any credit for the continual improvement in the economy after the crash of 2008.  As an arch-Trumpist, you know that it was only an illusion that anything more than the sun rising and setting happened while Obama was in office.  Now, however, Trump gets full credit for everything good that has happened since he single-handedly began raising and lowering the sun each day, and it will only be nothing more than a natural sunset if good things stop happening during or after his reign.  It must be soothing to see things with such simple clarity. 
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on December 18, 2019, 11:16:56 AM
Seriati, your writing arm never seems to tire.  I want to respond (as briefly as possible, but not moreso) to each of your points, which I will do later today, but I'll make a general comment now.  Virtually everything Trump does is transactional and aims for short-term results at the expense of long-term benefits, despite his great claims to the contrary (6% GDP growth, anybody?).

That reflects a complete lack of understanding of what is really going on.  Care to walk me through how putting tariffs on our major trading partners (acknowledged by all economists as slowing growth in the economy) is for a short term benefit at the expense of the long term?  Or how about how getting a handle on illegal immigration, which politicians of all sides have avoided for decades because of the short term consequences reflects that thinking?

Heck his entire policy on foreign aid and foreign involvement is reflective of taking short term hits to change the long term gain and to force our allies to commit more to the goals.

Even his tax policies are focused long term, targetted to bring wealth back into the country (our prior tax regs made bringing capital home pure folly) and getting it invested in generating new long term jobs and growth here.  Opportunity zones are directly targetted at builingb long term benefits for impoverished communities, something that the people who have been living without hope in those areas desparately need (the best benefits tax wise take more than 10 years to fully realize).  Handouts and Democratic policies have destroyed their communities, Trump's focus is generating real opportunities and growth.  I mean heck, you really think that Sanders and Warren are thinking long term with wealth taxes and a tear down the rich philosophy?  Those have never worked - anywhere - to generate long term good or anything but worsening situations.

Regulation?  Both short and long term getting the government out of the micro control market is a good thing.  Keep resources focused on big things, not the little.

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Many of those things actually will end up costing vastly more later than is saved or generated now.  Some highlights that affect all Americans except the most wealthy...

You've misconstrued what's really going on.  I'm guessing you have too much jealousy of wealth to see anything involving the rich clearly.

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If you want to give him credit, you have to acknowledge that many of the positive trends seen over the past two years are continuations of trends that began under Obama.  But you won't, of course.

No, happy to agree that some trends began at the very end of Obama's reign.  The market was pretty sure that his disastrous policies were going to be ending.  Granted they expected it to be Clinton the corporatist that did so, but Trump turned out even better.

Far cry though from giving Obama credit for the whole package that he doesn't deserve, or for the ability to do things he said were impossible, or for maintaining outstanding and historic unemployment, rising wages, increases in labor force usage and minimal inflation - while running an active trade war, getting minimal support from the Fed (more like active harm at times), 95% negative press coverage trying to suppress rather than prop up consumer confidence and being investigated with sham processes and deep state traitors all the while.

I get the delusion, but if Obama had a third term the economy would be no where near as good.  And like I said above, I saw an estimate that if Warren wins and implements her policies we could be looking at a 10% contraction.  That's great depression scale problems.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 11:58:05 AM
Response to Seriate, #2:

More detailed response.
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Sure, tax relief, focus on returning American jobs, which increased both manufacturing jobs and all jobs generally, focus on freeing American ingenuity to operate.  There's a reason unemployment is historically low and inflation hasn't jumped through the roof.  There's a reason every minority group is at record low unemployment.  There's a reason that real wage growth is occuring and that the poor are seeing improvements in their situations.  It isn't decades of unfulfilled Democratic promises on handouts.
Virtually all of these "results" are continuations of trends that began under Obama, who had to help the country recover from the deepest economic collapse since the 1930's.  He gets zero credit for anything he did while people (like you) praise Trump as if he has made the US rise like a phoenix from near death.

1) Foreign investment in the US has slowed under Trump.
2) Only a small number of manufacturing jobs have returned to the US and many companies are moving manufacturing outside the US.  At best this is a wash, but Trump claimed there would be a massive return and growth in the US in these areas.
3) "Freeing American ingenuity to operate"?  You don't see that as nothing more than an empty talking point?  American ingenuity as measured by market dominance shows that foreign owned companies have increased dramatically in the US.  I have no idea what that says about US ingenuity.
4) Wage growth under Trump is relatively lackluster with spikes and dips and has never reached the highest point under Obama in 2016.  Overall, wage growth under Obama showed a consistent growth with fewer spikes.  Trump is the beneficiary of that trend, which continues.
5) Analyzing poverty is a long discussion in itself.  There has been a statistical decline in the number of people who qualify as living in poverty in each of the last 4 years, which includes the last 2 years of Obama's Presidency. At the same time many public assistance programs poor people have benefited from have been reduced or eliminated under Trump, which doesn't show up on their poverty qualification but increases their living costs.  One of the biggest reasons people move into poverty is medical expenses, which is seeing a massive public assistance reduction under Trump.

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What has Trump done to harm Healthcare?  Seriously.  This is near impossible to fix.  There is absolutely no will to fix it.  Lie to yourself all you want the Dems won't agree to any fix, whether it works or not, unless it gets more healthcare under government control and makes more people dependent on hand outs.  It's just a simple truth, they've been buying votes for so long they see anything that actually works to make people independent as a threat to their own power. 

And this is 100% reflected in the Dem candidate's announced policies, very heavy on the hand outs, and no sense whatsoever when it comes to paying for it, heck a lot of them just lie about the impact on the middle class and poor. 
Near impossible to fix?!?  Then why did Trump repeatedly claim that he was was going to repeal and replace it with a far simpler, cheaper and effective program?  Do you need me to do your homework to come up with videos of his grandiose claims?  Who has been lying to whom?  How many votes did he buy with that bogus claim, only once in office to confess that he had no idea health care reform could be so complicated?  It's a natural fact that instead of being "heavy on the handouts," Republicans - and Trump is no more guilty than others - keep insisting that lowering taxes and reducing or eliminating public welfare programs will somehow make Americans richer and happier.  Ain't never happened and never will.
  
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You know I don't trust economist's predictions, but I saw an article saying that the market should expect a 10% negative contraction if Warren is elected.  Talk about misery.

Wow, talk about a self-serving and utterly hypocritical statement.  You don't believe economists, but this one you like because, wait for it...it bashes a progressive Democrat.  What about the hundreds of economists who have doubted or rebutted Trump's glowing claims about the miracles he says he has already wreaked on the economy or will bring into the world over time?

More later, need to do some arm rlaexnig erexciess. Dman, too ltae.
--
w3w...
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDeamon on December 18, 2019, 12:00:48 PM
We have to acknowledge that, after a recession, jobs and economic numbers bounce back. That’s like taking credit for the sunrise.


This isn’t true. Things don’t always better. China was the greatest empire for ages ...then declined for generations. People are going to be waiting a long time for the Roman Empire to come back.

China didn't really crash or even contract in an economic sense. It's political border withered, likely due to lack of economic growth as populations continued to both increase(fewer resources per capita; which in turn impacted resources available for military defense) and failed to keep pace with their neighbors.

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The current Republic is showing signs that it’s time as a Democracy is at an end.

That remains to be seen, the system is capable of recovery in the United States at least, although we can argue about the odds of it happening. What we're seeing now is not unprecedented in American history.

As the only expression goes: "History may not exactly repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes." So yes, certain aspects of what we're seeing is new, but most of it, at its core, is very much not new at all. As we have a significant mix of Adams vs Jefferson, President Johnson, and even Woodrow Wilson going on right now. (However, unlike Presidents Wilson and Adams, Trump isn't putting journalists in jail.)
 
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There isn’t some natural order that always results in improvement.

Agreed, it isn't a guarantee, but it is the long-term national trend, the economy recovers every time and continues growing after it happens. On a micro level, it is very obviously not the case, as there are numerous ghost-towns around the country that tell that story, or near ghost-towns in a number of other cases.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 18, 2019, 12:16:48 PM

Maybe I'm remembering wrong, but I thought she was a he. Or is this a pronoun thing?

Does Kasandra have a preferred pronoun?
IRL, yes.  However, if you feel more deferential toward one or another, feel free to think of me that way.  We're all shadows, anyway.

Ah, I know who you are now. Sorry; thought you were Marnie. I know you don’t like me much either but I’ve got nothing against you and actually enjoy your sense of humor when you let it out of the cage. Wish you’d let me call you Kas, who is my favorite character on Wentworth.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on December 18, 2019, 12:20:47 PM
Quote
You know I don't trust economist's predictions, but I saw an article saying that the market should expect a 10% negative contraction if Warren is elected.  Talk about misery.


#1, where was the article, info wars? I can't find any reference worse than tenths. #2 none of that would result from an election win, I think it presupposes that she gets her wealth tax, which would have to get past the house, senate, and scotus.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 12:27:53 PM
Quote
Ah, I know who you are now. Sorry; thought you were Marnie. I know you don’t like me much either but I’ve got nothing against you and actually enjoy your sense of humor when you let it out of the cage.
I don't dislike you, though your avatar could use a shave and a haircut.  I like wearing the free-flowing gown of the ancient skeptic for whom it's common rather than real knowledge to be skeptical of.  Sigh, nobody believes me, either...
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 12:50:58 PM
Seriate response #3:

More blah-blah.

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School choice.  The left only opposes it because the teacher's union owns them, even though it hurts their own minority constituents.  You'll note too how rarely the affluent left lets their children be harmed by public schools.  They always live in school districts with good teacher, and even then send their kids to private schools, yet they oppose school choice?  They get it themselves by moving, and then lecture those who don't have the economic means to use that option themselves and have kids stuck in and harmed by failing schools.
As for loan forgiveness, it's a garbage solution to a garbage problem the left created.  Every time the left authorized more loan guaranties to ensure that everyone could "afford" a college education, and to ensure a steady flow of guaranteed government money to the schools, the schools reacted by raising their tuitions and hiring more and more administrators.    Not one of those programs held those schools accountable for the lack of success of their students.  Now that they've created a monster (and they were behind the loan guarantees and bankruptcy protection to ensure that lenders would enter into the market without consideration for the qualification of the student - how else does a student get $250k in loans to major in basket weaving).  The "only" solution of course is to take it over with more government, free college, and government paying for all the loans.  More free stuff, promised if you elect the Dems, paid for by someone else (really we promise, someone else, just don't actually think about he economics - oh wait, you're not going to major in that anyway).

Can't allow any correction in the higher education market since it's totally controlled by the left, and supports massive and bloated amounts of reliable blue voters.

"School choice" is a euphemism not unlike "pro-life".  Those who favor it want to eliminate standards for secular and so-called liberal education curricula.  Betsy Devos, who lives in my home state of Michigan, was hired to oversee the disembowelment of the public education establishment.  More charter schools in Michigan either fail or never even open despite receiving public funds, than in any other state.  In Michigan and across the country education standards are being narrowed to test score results and those results are falling ever farther behind other developed countries. Do your reading.

The loan forgiveness debacle is a mess with many causes.  Yes, the Obama program allowed fraud and misrepresentation, which became apparent when the first batch of 10-year beneficiaries applied for their loans to be retired in 2017 and over 99% were rejected.  How did Devos and Trump respond?  First by saying and doing nothing, then by creating a program to fix the program that still rejects 99% of applicants.  In fact, they never even published guidelines for how to apply to the new program and Devos has been found in contempt for refusing to forgive loans proffered by deceptive for-profit schools backed by the Education Department.

Do you have any idea how chilling that will be for recruiting new college grads to go into the public K-12 teaching sector?  Probably not, because public education itself is thought of as a left-wing plot to indoctrinate impressionable young minds.  Better for them to have 12 years of Christian mythic indoctrination.  Just ask Betsy:

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"There are not enough philanthropic dollars in America to fund what is currently the need in education…Our desire is to confront the culture in ways that will continue to advance God’s kingdom."

Aemn!
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 02:45:01 PM
Seriati #4:

Munny funny munny...

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Tax reform delivered benefits to everyone in the lower 80% and only some of those in the upper 20%.   Corporate tax reforms has brought massive amounts of equity capital back into the country, boosting the economy and created massive job growth - exactly what the left always claims that government spending will do (but that it fails to do as effectively).

Let's do it differently this time:

"The rich will not be gaining at all with this plan." - Donald Trump

Here is the tax savings by quintile:

0-20: 0.4%
21-40: 1.2%
41-60: 1.6%
61-80: 1.9%
81-100: 2.9%

The top 5% got 50% of all tax savings, not just from the reduction in tax margins, but from the increase in stock values and profits due to corporate tax rate reduction.  The majority of stock market investors are the self-same rich folks.  Don't expect somebody making $40,000 to be setting aside money to play in the market.

Meanwhile, the average savings for all families in the US is about $16,500, but the median is about $4,500.  That means that 50% of US households only have enough savings to fall back on for about one month, assuming no unexpected expenses.  Sound good to you?

As for business investment, the rise has been about 2.5% this year, which is equal to or lower than in 4 of Obama's 8 years, and only marginally higher than in 2017, the last year where Obama's policies were influencing the economy.  All hail Trump, eh?

The massive job growth is real, though not massive.  Since 2010 the unemployment rate has declined at an almost linear rate.  While Trump's policies may have had an influence that continued the prior trend, you have to go out of your way to dismiss the continual positive trend under Obama.  But, go ahead anyway.  Maybe it was just because the sun was rising when he was in office and now it blazes under Trump's incendiary gaze.

As for foreign profit repatriation, you may have forgotten that Trump claimed that $4T (with a T) would flow back into the US.  The amount thought to be held overseas was somewhere between $2.7-$4T, so he was, shall we say, optimistic in the extreme.  The actual amount repatriated so far is somewhere between $145B-$465B (with a B).  Since at least half of those profits are held in non-liquidatable form, that's probably as good as it gets.  That's something, but nowhere near the advertised expectation.

I hope you're seeing a trend in my responses, which anybody with a high school education should realize.  Trump vastly overstates the benefits of his plans and policy proposals and delivers a fraction of the promised results, if at all (Mexico border wall, anyone?  I *swear* they'll pay for it!  Really!).
  
Can you think of a single area where he has lived up to his campaign promises?  I can't.
Title: I don't need no walls around me!
Post by: Pete at Home on December 18, 2019, 03:30:24 PM
I'd have liked that last post if it wasn't for the paragraph about the wall.  Please don't bring up the wall.  Let it be forgotten.  Let's not treat it like Iraq 1.0 got treated, "Bush didn't finish the job" which eventually lead us into Iraq 2.0
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 04:11:42 PM
Well, with Trump it's the gift that never gets given, unless he can persuade Colorado.  There's no more palpable example that his hands are too small to get around a big problem.  Uh-oh, did I use my outside voice just there?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 05:37:00 PM
Seriati #5

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Leading to improvements in trade deals and resurgence in jobs in American industries the left declared were gone for ever.
You're either misconstruing tariffs with trade deals or conflating the two.  Tariffs with China have cost about $39B so far if you add direct costs ($11B) with government offset subsides ($28B) with revenue enhancement of about $15B.  However, don't forget that the tariffs are paid by the importers and consumers who buy those products, so the actual cost to the economy is much higher.

I'm not sure what trade deals you might be referring to, since Trump hasn't actually enacted any so far. As for the supposed "resurgence in jobs" I'll let you explain how and where exactly they are tied to international trade.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDeamon on December 18, 2019, 05:49:49 PM
There's a trade deal working its way through Congress right now that essentially replaces/updates NAFTA, and has broad bipartisan support. Congress has been doing a little bit more than just fixating on impeaching Trump. Although the Dems would rather you fixate on that than pay attention to the trade deal he brokered and they like.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/10/politics/usmca-nancy-pelosi-donald-trump-trade-deal/index.html
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 06:03:37 PM
What do you think of the hundreds of minor and major bills that the House has passed that McConnell has refused to bring to the floor for a vote?

I'll also suggest that you look closely at the NAFTA replacement to decide if you really think it is a major advancement over its predecessor.  I am still trying to figure that out and haven't formed an opinion yet.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 18, 2019, 10:15:05 PM
Seriati #6:

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I don't believe that.  Again, despite the failed promises of the left, it's Trump that's bringing real wage growth, real job opportunities, prison reform, and renewed focus on improving the impoverished places where the poor live (opportunity zone legislation).  Maybe talk to some people in that demographic, they are much more optimistic than they were under the previous administration.

Optimism is a funny thing to measure.  Overall, suicide rates have increased by about 33% in the past 20 years and are increasing fastest among white people in rural areas and areas with high poverty, lack of health insurance and military veterans.  In the areas showing the highest increases there is a correlation with an increase in gun stores, which comports with the fact that 50% of all suicides are committed with guns.  The inference is that economic inequality is a significant contributing factor, as is social isolation.  Funny that these are the same populations that were more likely to vote for Trump.

Also look at millennials who are the first generation since WWII who are economically worse off than their parents' generation.  They disproportionately rely on their parents for money, are carrying student loan debt, are delaying marriage and having children and on average have about $8,000 in savings.

So tell me who is more optimistic because of Trump and why.  Maybe rich people are, but maybe they're not. I've read papers arguing both ways.  (Somewhat) oddly, from what I've read the groups of people in the US who seem to have the highest "happiness" index are black families below the poverty line, couples who have vigorous sex, hispanics of all economic levels and white families earning $75,000-$100,000/yr.  None of them are attributable to Trump.  Go figure.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 20, 2019, 05:34:31 AM
Seriati, no responses?  I keep hoping you'll come up with some convincing evidence to back up your logorrheic arguments to persuade me.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Pete at Home on December 20, 2019, 12:40:18 PM
Seriati #6:

Quote
I don't believe that.  Again, despite the failed promises of the left, it's Trump that's bringing real wage growth, real job opportunities, prison reform, and renewed focus on improving the impoverished places where the poor live (opportunity zone legislation).  Maybe talk to some people in that demographic, they are much more optimistic than they were under the previous administration.

Optimism is a funny thing to measure.  Overall, suicide rates have increased by about 33% in the past 20 years and are increasing fastest among white people in rural areas and areas with high poverty, lack of health insurance and military veterans.  In the areas showing the highest increases there is a correlation with an increase in gun stores, which comports with the fact that 50% of all suicides are committed with guns.  The inference is that economic inequality is a significant contributing factor, as is social isolation.  Funny that these are the same populations that were more likely to vote for Trump.

Also look at millennials who are the first generation since WWII who are economically worse off than their parents' generation.  They disproportionately rely on their parents for money, are carrying student loan debt, are delaying marriage and having children and on average have about $8,000 in savings.

So tell me who is more optimistic because of Trump and why.

From my observation, many of the poor rural whites that you describe are foolishly optimistic about Trump since he's the first president in ages to listen to them and to pretend to care about them.

I commend you for paying attention to them in your succinct description of their woes.  Most leftist talking heads mock white suicide rates, which is, I suppose, the ultimate sort of white flight.  My roommate committed suicide last year at this time, and I consequently spent most of 2019 homeless.  "Let them eat white privilege" is less helpful than some seem to think. 
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on December 20, 2019, 03:13:18 PM
Kasandra, been working link a dog and have barely had time to read most of what you wrote.  Pretty clear that demonstrating the errors is going to take a lot of time at the research, so it will be a while before I can get to it.  Not sure if you've ever noticed, but I tend to post in bursts (that correspond roughly to when I do have the time).
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on December 20, 2019, 04:31:39 PM
Kasandra, been working link a dog and have barely had time to read most of what you wrote.  Pretty clear that demonstrating the errors is going to take a lot of time at the research, so it will be a while before I can get to it.  Not sure if you've ever noticed, but I tend to post in bursts (that correspond roughly to when I do have the time).

I appreciate it when a member acknowledges that arguments are left unanswered but simply don't have time to respond. We should all avoid the assumption that someone is ignoring us, but it helps to know it for a fact!
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 20, 2019, 05:45:27 PM
Kasandra, been working link a dog and have barely had time to read most of what you wrote.  Pretty clear that demonstrating the errors is going to take a lot of time at the research, so it will be a while before I can get to it.  Not sure if you've ever noticed, but I tend to post in bursts (that correspond roughly to when I do have the time).

I appreciate it when a member acknowledges that arguments are left unanswered but simply don't have time to respond. We should all avoid the assumption that someone is ignoring us, but it helps to know it for a fact!

I agree.  Since his original comments came without much delay (and because he has walked away from other conversations, IMO, prematurely) I made an assumption.  I acknowledge and accept his reason and look forward to his response.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Seriati on December 23, 2019, 10:17:57 AM
To be fair, I usually don't stop posting in these intervals because it's faster and easier (and frankly more fun) to post about opinions or things that are in my direct knowledge.  But that was quite the log jam of details that have to be responded to, rather than just dismissed out of hand (who knows, I my even find that some of what I thought was true turns out to have been overstated, but it takes time to parse point by point).

And it is certainly the case that I have had drops in other conversations where I meant to respond and forgot or took so long the topic had died.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on December 23, 2019, 01:04:26 PM
Seriati, you and I disagree but I do welcome the exchanges.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on January 31, 2020, 12:22:56 PM
Only six hours to the big Brexit. Why 23.00 was picked as the time is confusing. Are they trying to sweep it under the rug?

Now comes a transition period which lasts til the end of the year, but could be extended another couple of years.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDrake on June 15, 2020, 05:58:56 PM
Remember Brexit? Yeah that's still happening.

Quote
The EU insists without agreement on fishing and competition rules, there'll be no deal at all. It wants restrictions on the UK's ability to slash costly environmental or labour regulations for example, in order to prevent UK businesses becoming more competitive than European ones in their own market. This, says the EU, is imperative to protect the "integrity" of the single market and what it calls "the European project".

But political rhetoric aside, Boris Johnson and EU leaders want a deal. It makes economic sense. This doesn't mean a deal is certain. But the UK isn't walking away from talks this month either, as it once threatened to do.

Instead, after their meeting on Monday, the prime minister and the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen are expected to announce a timetable of intensified negotiations this summer, including some face-to-face meetings (Covid-19 permitting) in a declared attempt to break the deadlock.

Prepare for the setting of more deadlines too. Plus dark mutterings from both sides (France's Europe minister was already at it on Thursday) should these deadlines not be met.

The UK says a deal must become clear before the autumn to give businesses and workers the chance to prepare. Spoiler alert: a deal is extremely unlikely to materialise by then.

The EU insists 31 October is the latest date a deal can be reached, if it is to be ratified by the end of the year (the UK's other deadline).

Spoiler alert Number 2: the late October date is also quite possibly not going to be met.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on June 15, 2020, 06:13:04 PM
Looks like the latest news is no news and don't expect much news.  Well, at least they're giving it a good go.
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: TheDeamon on June 15, 2020, 06:30:18 PM
Only six hours to the big Brexit. Why 23.00 was picked as the time is confusing. Are they trying to sweep it under the rug?

Now comes a transition period which lasts til the end of the year, but could be extended another couple of years.

Midnight in Brussels?
Title: Re: BoJo Boffo or Bozo?
Post by: Kasandra on June 27, 2020, 11:58:55 AM
Not clear why, but a UK poll taken in 2019 (https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-poll-most-british-people-want-to-rejoin-eu-2020-6) and just released says that 57% of UK citizens want to stay in the EU, and only 32% want to leave.  BoJo must have known this before running on his Brexit platform.