The Ornery American Forums

General Category => General Comments => Topic started by: TheDrake on March 27, 2020, 03:26:03 PM

Title: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on March 27, 2020, 03:26:03 PM
Maybe we can have one thread that stays hygenically clean of Trump, Republicans, Democrats and US politics and US response?

Quote
Indian authorities in the northern state of Punjab have quarantined around 40,000 residents from 20 villages following a Covid-19 outbreak linked to just one man.

The 70-year-old died of coronavirus - a fact found out only after his death.

The man, a preacher, had ignored advice to self quarantine after returning from a trip to Italy and Germany, officials told BBC Punjabi's Arvind Chhabra.

India has 640 confirmed cases of the virus, of which 30 are in Punjab.

However, experts worry that the real number of positive cases could be far higher. India has one of the lowest testing rates in the world, although efforts are under way to ramp up capacity.

There are fears that an outbreak in the country of 1.3 billion people could result in a catastrophe.

The man, identified as Baldev Singh, had visited a large gathering to celebrate the Sikh festival of Hola Mohalla shortly before he died.

The six-day festival attracts around 10,000 people every day.

Coronavirus: India 'super spreader' quarantines 40,000 people (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52061915)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on March 27, 2020, 03:29:21 PM
Quote
"We have only one functional ventilator, which is not even in very good condition," said Collins Anyachi, a physician at a teaching hospital in Calabar, a Nigerian city in Cross River state that borders Cameroon. Anyachi added that fewer than 10 out of the approximately 600 doctors that serve the area's two million people have access to personal protection equipment, such as face masks and surgical gowns, that can make all the difference in terms of whether medical staff contract the virus.

In South Africa, which has more coronavirus infections than anywhere else on the continent – more than 900 as of March 26 – the government has prohibited all but essential workers from going outside, even for exercise or to walk a dog. Also forbidden: speaking in-person to a neighbor. But crowded townships, where services are basic at the best of times, make it harder for people to observe social distancing measures.


Coronavirus infections in Africa are rapidly rising. Its weak health systems may buckle (https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/03/27/coronavirus-africa-preparedness-rising-covid-19-infections/5076620002/)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on March 27, 2020, 03:40:14 PM
I went to look at Japan, because they had a very low doubling rate. But looks can be deceiving. These numbers are attributed to lack of testing. Meanwhile...

Quote
Over the weekend, despite most of the world being in a state of self-policed lock down, Japanese people flocked in the thousands to cherry blossom hotspots across Tokyo, in celebration of the coming of spring. I visited Shinjuku National Park on Sunday afternoon and witnessed as thousands of revellers — all bottlenecking paths, posing for pictures, having picnics, and intermingling without care — bucked the global trend of social distancing and self-isolation in favor of tradition. Similarly, on Friday night, Shibuya crossing was as busy as ever, restaurants and bars were full of jovial patrons, and the line to the recently opened Shibuya Sky was at least 100 strong, with most viewings booked out entirely. As Harumi Murakami described it for the East Asia Forum: “The contrast between Beijing and Tokyo is striking and unflattering to Japan. Downtown Beijing is deserted as people try to avoid spreading the virus by staying home. Tokyo looks like business as usual, with trains and subways still packed.”

Japan’s Limited Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic (https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/japans-limited-response-to-the-covid-19-pandemic/)

That sounds terrifying. Maybe this is a test case for whether the world is overreacting with distancing measures.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: rightleft22 on March 27, 2020, 03:48:06 PM
Quote
That sounds terrifying. Maybe this is a test case for whether the world is overreacting with distancing measures.

Interesting to keep an eye on Japan. If they don't see a dramatic increase the question will be why not.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on March 27, 2020, 04:23:16 PM
Quote
That sounds terrifying. Maybe this is a test case for whether the world is overreacting with distancing measures.

Interesting to keep an eye on Japan. If they don't see a dramatic increase the question will be why not.

The tricky part might be the lack of testing. They might not know people are dying of it, although it will be hard to deny dire overload like running out of hospital beds.

They are looking to reopen their schools also, according to the article.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: cherrypoptart on March 28, 2020, 07:05:13 AM
Most of the clusters seem to have come from gatherings indoors like at the South Korean mega-church, inside ski resorts, birthday parties, conventions, and so on. I have to wonder how easy it is to catch outdoors. How long does the Sun take to kill the virus? Sure it is spreading in Africa and India but the people there gather indoors too. Did the spring breakers catch it from each other while they were outside at the beach or was it while in cars and hotels? It'd be interesting if they could test for something like that, how contagious it is inside versus outside. On the other hand, trillions of viruses fall on us all the time while we're outside. I also wonder if these could be some of them. And does your initial viral exposure make a big difference in how severe your illness is likely to be? For instance, could medical workers who may get exposed to enormous initial virus loads suffer worse outcomes than someone who catches it from the air walking around Walmart and may only get a relatively small initial viral load so it gives their body a lot more time to fight. So basically I'm wondering how dangerous walking around to watch the cherry blossoms  really is. Of course getting there on crowded trains and buses would be a definite problem.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on March 28, 2020, 10:11:21 AM
All good questions, but many of them won't be answered until after the pandemic abates.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on March 28, 2020, 12:33:02 PM
Most of the clusters seem to have come from gatherings indoors like at the South Korean mega-church, inside ski resorts, birthday parties, conventions, and so on. I have to wonder how easy it is to catch outdoors. How long does the Sun take to kill the virus? Sure it is spreading in Africa and India but the people there gather indoors too. Did the spring breakers catch it from each other while they were outside at the beach or was it while in cars and hotels? It'd be interesting if they could test for something like that, how contagious it is inside versus outside. On the other hand, trillions of viruses fall on us all the time while we're outside. I also wonder if these could be some of them. And does your initial viral exposure make a big difference in how severe your illness is likely to be? For instance, could medical workers who may get exposed to enormous initial virus loads suffer worse outcomes than someone who catches it from the air walking around Walmart and may only get a relatively small initial viral load so it gives their body a lot more time to fight. So basically I'm wondering how dangerous walking around to watch the cherry blossoms  really is. Of course getting there on crowded trains and buses would be a definite problem.

Sun can kill the virus fairly quickly (3-5 minutes).  Japenese study found a 20 fold reduced risk of catching it in open air venues versus closed venues.  That said - I suspect it isn't just the sun exposure, but rather people tend to touch handles a lot when in closed venues (doors to enter the venue, door to bathrooms, etc.)

Viral load upon contracting it is a major issue in clinical course - the greater the exposure the worse the outcome.  (Which is why dentists are especially in danger).
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on March 29, 2020, 08:03:41 AM
Tokyo reported yet another single-day record of 68 new cases of COVID-19 infections Sunday, bringing the total number in the virus-hit capital to 430.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on March 30, 2020, 01:55:12 PM
The Hungarian Parliament has voted by 137 to 53 to accept the government's request for the power to rule by decree during the coronavirus emergency.

bbc (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52095500)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: rightleft22 on April 06, 2020, 03:59:29 PM
Sweden looks like a place we should watch. They haven't implemented a total shut down and are confident there medial system can handle what comes

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/sweden-coronavirus-change-1.5522852
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: ScottF on April 06, 2020, 06:55:09 PM
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on April 07, 2020, 03:25:26 PM
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.

Sort of; they closed large gatherings, high schools, colleges, and have people practicing social distancing. Sweden is a model for society after the full lock downs quash this initial spread. Their strategy isn't let the virus run rampant through younger people to build herd immunity in their society. What we need to see is if their measures are enough to keep the virus under control when implemented before the number of cases explodes.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: ScottF on April 07, 2020, 05:46:40 PM
Norway, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria begin to relax lockdown restrictions. This may start happening around the globe sooner than a lot of people thought

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-european-countries-beginning-to-lift-lockdown-measures-11969857
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on April 07, 2020, 08:37:59 PM
Norway, Denmark, Czech Republic and Austria begin to relax lockdown restrictions. This may start happening around the globe sooner than a lot of people thought

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-the-european-countries-beginning-to-lift-lockdown-measures-11969857

EU is pretty much going to be forced into it, which could be painful for them later on.

Remember, one of the requirements for EU Membership is a cap on their national debt as a % of GDP as I recall.

So they can't just deficit spend their way out of it.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Aris Katsaris on April 08, 2020, 03:17:27 AM
Quote
Remember, one of the requirements for EU Membership is a cap on their national debt as a % of GDP as I recall.

So they can't just deficit spend their way out of it.

I am not completely sure, but I think this requirement you mention is solely about Eurozone membership.

Of the 4 countries listed, only Austria is in the Eurozone. (Norway isn't in the EU at all, while Denmark and Czech Republic are in the EU, but not in the Eurozone)

Also I'm pretty sure this requirement has been suspended for the duration of the crisis -- in fact the entire EU is currently in intense debates about how they'll handle the crisis, what sort of financial aid will be given, whether common bonds will be issued etc. Much is currently in flux.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 08, 2020, 09:16:31 AM
Quote
.Mario Centeno, Portuguese finance minister and president of the Eurogroup, said talks would continue, after Italy refused to abandon its plea for “coronabonds” to share the debt burden for coronavirus recovery across the EU.

“We came close to a deal but we are not there yet,” Centeno wrote on Twitter of the talks, which began via videoconference on Tuesday afternoon and continued through the night. “I suspended the Eurogroup [meeting and we will] continue tomorrow.”
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on April 08, 2020, 10:51:00 AM
Quote
The prime minister was being kept in St Thomas' Hospital in London "for close monitoring" and remained clinically stable, his official spokesman said.

Its good his condition doesn't seem to be getting worse. So far it seems like rest and oxygen have kept him stable. But the fact he's being held in the ICU for multiple days is cause for concern.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: fizz on April 08, 2020, 11:31:52 AM
Lombardy hospitals have published a study they did on a sample of about 1600 patients admitted to ICUs in Lombardy.
(https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2764365)
There are a lot of stats about the average age, sex, previous illness of patients, but the statistic that catches the eye is that over the complete course of these patients, the final mortality of the admitted to ICUs is 26%.

(a summing up sample of the stats: https://www.ilpost.it/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/covid-lombardia-tabella-2.png)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 08, 2020, 12:05:59 PM
the final mortality of the admitted to ICUs is 26%.

That is in line with expectations based on China - 80% don't need hospitalization, 15% need just supplemental oxygen; 5% ICU - of those admitted to ICU 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 die.  Giving a mortality of 1-1.5%.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: fizz on April 08, 2020, 12:15:18 PM
That is in line with expectations based on China - 80% don't need hospitalization, 15% need just supplemental oxygen; 5% ICU - of those admitted to ICU 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 die.  Giving a mortality of 1-1.5%.

Yep, but if you check the sum up table, of those about 1600, 58% are still in ICU.
26% dead, 16% discharged, and 58% still in ICU.
Now, hopefully the percentage of those still in ICU that will die will be low, but still, it means it takes a loooong time to recover.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 08, 2020, 12:24:16 PM
Yep, but if you check the sum up table, of those about 1600, 58% are still in ICU.
26% dead, 16% discharged, and 58% still in ICU.
Now, hopefully the percentage of those still in ICU that will die will be low, but still, it means it takes a loooong time to recover.

Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on April 08, 2020, 06:00:16 PM
Yep, but if you check the sum up table, of those about 1600, 58% are still in ICU.
26% dead, 16% discharged, and 58% still in ICU.
Now, hopefully the percentage of those still in ICU that will die will be low, but still, it means it takes a loooong time to recover.

Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.

And why bedspace and ventilators has been such a point of discussion. Once they're in a bed, and put on a ventilator, they're often on it for a week+ or they die. So even if everything else was "flu-like" they'd still need to basically triple their capacity in the ICU to handle just that one change. But it isn't the only change in relation to the flu.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: ScottF on April 08, 2020, 06:12:17 PM
Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.
Are you saying people who's flu also worsens to the point of needing a ventilator typically recover in 3-5 days?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on April 08, 2020, 06:15:54 PM
Yes, it takes about 1 month to recover for COVID-19 patients that go on ventilators and survive.  Flu is generally 3-5 days.  Which is part of why COVID-19 is such a major problem.
Are you saying people who's flu also worsens to the point of needing a ventilator typically recover in 3-5 days?

He phrased it poorly. Flu victims very rarely spend more than 3 to 5 days on a ventilator. Covid19 patients rarely spend less than a week on one, assuming they don't die first.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 08, 2020, 06:25:08 PM
Quote
Similarly, ventilated 2009 influenza A(H1N1) patients in Mexico who survived had median of 15 days (IQR: 8–26 days) on a mechanical ventilator, whereas nonsurvivors had a median of 7.5 days (IQR: 3–13.5 days) [8]

8. Domínguez-Cherit G, Lapinsky SE, Macias AE, et al. Critically Ill patients with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) in Mexico. JAMA 2009; 302:1880–7. [PubMed] [Google Scholar]

The median generally isn't rare, is it? What am I missing?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 08, 2020, 07:53:30 PM
The median generally isn't rare, is it? What am I missing?

Here is the source for the numbers,

Quote
Average duration of ventilation for the 42 ICUs ranged from 2.6 to 7.9 days, but 60% of this variation was accounted for by differences in patient characteristics.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8697853

Some other source was reporting it as 3-7 days, but I don't recall what that source was.  It looks like this is all ICU admissions rather than Flu - don't know if the source I was recollecting from said Flu, or if I misremembered.

Looks like swine flu

Quote
The average duration of ventilatory support was 8 days with a minimum duration of 2 days

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3275972/


For COVID-19, earliest extubation was 8 days,

Quote
“The earliest extubation occurred 8 days after initiation of invasive mechanical ventilation, which suggests that acute respiratory failure due to Covid-19 may require prolonged mechanical ventilation lasting days to weeks,” they wrote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/04/07/the-health-202-at-least-of-covid-19-patients-on-ventilators-don-t-make-it/5e8b91bc88e0fa101a75bede/

Uptodate says 2 weeks or more for COVID-19,

Quote
Accurate data on duration of ventilation are limited but suggest prolonged mechanical ventilation for two weeks or more (table 1).

https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-critical-care-issues?source=related_link

I find lots of sources state 'at least two weeks' but none provide what mean or median stays are.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: ScottF on April 10, 2020, 02:31:20 PM
Some good news: Boris Johnson is out of the ICU after three days and feeling better. Not unexpected, given his age, but good to see anyway.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on April 11, 2020, 11:40:52 AM
So... the number of reported infections in India has been doubling every 2.5-3 days over the past week and a half... I expect that India's ability to isolate people is going to be limited, especially in certain sub-populations that live in single room shanties and slums.  Food distribution is also problematic, not to mention that direct access to refrigeration and fresh water in the most vulnerable populations is very limited. Many people are going to be forced into contact with others, on a regular basis, or will risk starvation.

We will see soon enough, but India might very well become the new hotspot for the pandemic in the next few weeks.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 11, 2020, 11:57:41 AM
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on April 11, 2020, 03:58:21 PM
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.

It isn't even under-reporting, they simply don't have enough testing capacity. They're going to make Italy and New York's experiences seem extremely pleasant by comparison. Crunch is probably going to get his wish of seeing what happens when the virus is allowed to run rampant across a large population that does have access to "the Trump Pills" as most of them are made in India in the first place.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 11, 2020, 04:30:37 PM
India has been on strict lock down since the 24th, so 17 to 18 days so far and are extending it for longer.  Probably 4+ weeks.

Quote
On 24 March, India shut its $2.9 trillion (£2.3tn) economy, closing its businesses and issuing strict stay-at-home orders to more than a billion people. Air, road and rail transport systems were suspended.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52255011

Quote
Across India, vehicular traffic has been cut to almost zero. Big industries billowing black smoke into the atmosphere are closed. Construction sites that are usually buzzing with activity, spewing dust and dry cement particles into the air, are eerily vacant.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/10/831592401/with-coronavirus-lockdown-indias-cities-see-clear-blue-skies-as-air-pollution-dr

So no they aren't "letting in run rampant".  They aren't doing much testing though so their number of cases and number dead due to COVID-19 is way off.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 11, 2020, 09:21:06 PM
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.

It isn't even under-reporting, they simply don't have enough testing capacity. They're going to make Italy and New York's experiences seem extremely pleasant by comparison. Crunch is probably going to get his wish of seeing what happens when the virus is allowed to run rampant across a large population that does have access to "the Trump Pills" as most of them are made in India in the first place.

I didn't mean they were deliberately under reporting, just the reasons you said. Due to logistics meant people being able to get to a plane with tests and having them administered.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: ScottF on April 12, 2020, 01:06:57 AM
I've been very worried about India, and I expect they are seriously under reporting as it is, due to logistics.
They're going to make Italy and New York's experiences seem extremely pleasant by comparison.

Is this your speculation? I ask because you state it as a certainty.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on April 12, 2020, 07:29:26 AM
Is this your speculation? I ask because you state it as a certainty.
Well, what do you think, ScottF?  (YouTube: Entropic Time (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6rVHr6OwjI))
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on April 12, 2020, 08:30:12 AM
Brazil looks to be another possible hotspot - with Bolsonaro dismissing concerns about the virus, social distancing measures being applied haphazardly at best, and with the upcoming influenza season in the southern hemisphere, this could turn into the 'test case' of policies that prioritize the economy over public health. Newsweek: Brazil and COVID-19 (https://www.newsweek.com/brazils-coronavirus-death-toll-tops-1000-bolsonaro-greets-supporters-street-social-distancing-1497426)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DJQuag on April 12, 2020, 05:14:04 PM
Brazil will be fine. Capitalism and sovereignty are literally what the world runs on and Brazil has plenty of both.

And by that I mean a whole lot of people are about to be die, but it'll be *fine,* and the country will march on and have some interesting things written into history books a decade or two from now. Which children will read/be taught from, and they'll grow up knowing that's the world.

So obviously from a perspective of a 2050 Brazilian you should be ashamed for trying to undermine the minds of the youth.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Crunch on April 13, 2020, 08:24:08 AM
Brazil will be fine. Capitalism and sovereignty are literally what the world runs on and Brazil has plenty of both.

And by that I mean a whole lot of people are about to be die, but it'll be *fine,* and the country will march on and have some interesting things written into history books a decade or two from now. Which children will read/be taught from, and they'll grow up knowing that's the world.

So obviously from a perspective of a 2050 Brazilian you should be ashamed for trying to undermine the minds of the youth.

“To be fair, the Reptilians can be sneaky.

I really wouldn't put it past their ways. God. Do you think the Demoplaugerats are are in this? Could they be? PS I never got into BTFS”

(awesome)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 13, 2020, 10:29:13 AM
Any country that has large numbers of urban poor that can't 'safe distance' - because they live in high density; are forced to use public transportation; can't shelter in place (can't risk the loss of income, or don't have a place to go, or has a job that can't be done at home and is allowed to stay open); etc.  You are going to end up with those poor people seeing extremely high infection rates.

India and Brazil both have large such populations, but so does the US.  That is why NY has such huge numbers, and likely a big part of how hard Spain and Italy were hit.

Most any country with significant slums will be hit hard, as will any country with lots of concentrated urban poverty.  The below list lists countries with slums.  1 Billion people live in slums currently.  Also you can have concentrated urban poverty without slums.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_slums
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on April 13, 2020, 10:38:30 AM
Going to disagree somewhat with NYC. While they may have "slumlords" what passes for a slum in NYC isn't likely to be considered one in much of the rest of the world.

NYC does have a very dense population though.

They also have a tightly integrated transportation system with many opportunities for people of widely varied economic strata to interact with each other simply in the act of moving to or from work. Be it in an elevator, or on mass transit.

Office Elevators and mass transit are likely to be the two largest contributors to the virus spread in NYC.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 13, 2020, 10:59:28 AM
Going to disagree somewhat with NYC. While they may have "slumlords" what passes for a slum in NYC isn't likely to be considered one in much of the rest of the world.

I wasn't claiming that NYC had slums.  I'm talking about the poor and apartment overcrowding,

Quote
Over a million and a half residents are affected by this problem. Immigrant households are the most frequently affected- 70% of units categorized as overcrowded include a head of household who emigrated to this country. Units with more than one person per room are referred to as “crowded dwellings,” and units with more than 1.5 persons per room are referred to as “severely crowded dwellings.”

https://www.kaplanlawyers.com/blog/apartment-overcrowding-in-nyc/

Quote
The Bronx was home to the largest share of crowded units in 2013 (12.4 percent of all housing units in the borough). Brooklyn was close behind at 10.3 percent

https://www.citylab.com/equity/2015/10/new-york-city-apartments-are-getting-even-more-crowded/409150/

Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 13, 2020, 11:03:44 AM
There's a reason why colleges shut down quickly. It's the same reason that high density apartment dwelling is dangerous. Lots of people rolling through common areas (like mail room, elevator). People living with more than one person to a room. Many people sharing one bathroom.

Charlie's family in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory would be in big trouble.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DJQuag on April 13, 2020, 02:23:30 PM
Brazil will be fine. Capitalism and sovereignty are literally what the world runs on and Brazil has plenty of both.

And by that I mean a whole lot of people are about to be die, but it'll be *fine,* and the country will march on and have some interesting things written into history books a decade or two from now. Which children will read/be taught from, and they'll grow up knowing that's the world.

So obviously from a perspective of a 2050 Brazilian you should be ashamed for trying to undermine the minds of the youth.

“To be fair, the Reptilians can be sneaky.

I really wouldn't put it past their ways. God. Do you think the Demoplaugerats are are in this? Could they be? PS I never got into BTFS”

(awesome)

I am absolutely awesome, all the voices in my head agree. Can we at least agree we're both against the Reptilians, Crunch? So many people look down on their danger, others raise objections due to "scientific evidence," and the Reptilian friends speaking news that is fake. These people are dangerous.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DJQuag on April 13, 2020, 02:29:00 PM
PS I expect a credit at least when you run to Breitbart and/Facebook and start posting about Demoplauguerats. It's the God Granted American Way.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 13, 2020, 03:23:17 PM
Quote
Spain, one of the countries worst hit by the coronavirus, is beginning to ease strict lockdown measures that have brought its economy to a standstill.

People in manufacturing, construction and some services are being allowed to return to work, but must stick to strict safety guidelines.

The rest of the population must still remain at home.

Almost 17,500 people with Covid-19 have died in Spain, but the rate of new infections has been falling.

Italy - the hardest-hit country in Europe, with more than 20,000 deaths - will allow a narrow range of firms to resume operations on Tuesday.

This is a prudent way to gradually move toward economic recovery, provided that they are prepared to pump the brakes if numbers start back up again.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: rightleft22 on April 13, 2020, 03:29:02 PM
Interesting story coming out of Canada

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/spartan-covid19-test-kit-new-1.5530669

The portable device is said to report results in 5 min. I hope it works
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 16, 2020, 03:19:34 PM
Meanwhile in Japan...

Quote
A nationwide state of emergency has been declared in Japan due to the country’s worsening coronavirus outbreak.

The move allows regional governments to urge people to stay inside, but without punitive measures or legal force.

After a recent spike in cases in the capital Tokyo, experts warned that the city’s emergency medical facilities could collapse under the pressure. Officials in Tokyo have also urged people to work from home.

Japan’s two emergency medical associations also issued a joint statement warning that they were “already sensing the collapse of the emergency medical system”.

And the mayor of Osaka appealed for people to donate their raincoats, so they could be used as personal protective equipment (PPE) for health workers whom he said were being forced to fashion PPE out of rubbish bags.

Unlike South Korea - which has brought its outbreak largely under control through a programme of large-scale testing - the Japanese government said that carrying out widespread testing was a “waste of resources”.

BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52313807)

Quote
Nine prefectures reported that more than 80 percent of their beds are occupied.

NHK (https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200414_31/)

What's really scary is their testing and tracking is really low. Serious cases and deaths are starting to spike. Virus deniers will point out that the overall numbers are low - way better than the flu. Those people don't understand an exponential curve.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 16, 2020, 04:05:34 PM
dutch blood donor study (https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies)

Quote
About 3 percent of blood donors in the Netherlands have developed antibodies against Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the coronavirus, RIVM director Jaap van Dissel told the Tweede Kamer based on an as-yet-unpublished study by blood bank Sanquin, NU.nl reports.

If blood donors are representative of the Dutch population, then around 3 percent of Netherlands residents have had the coronavirus to a more or lesser extent. "This concerns several hundred thousand Dutch people," Van Dissel said during his weekly update on the state of affairs surrounding the coronavirus to parliament.

Sanquin tested blood and plasma samples of Dutch donors to see if they've had the virus. Preliminary results show that the presence of antibodies differs per age group. 3.6 percent of young blood donors between 18 and 20 years old (688 individuals) have Covid-19 antibodies. That percentage decreases as donors get older. No antibodies were found among donors between the ages of 71 and 80, though the number of donors in that age group is also much lower - only 10 individuals.

nltimes (https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/16/3-dutch-blood-donors-covid-19-antibodies)

So it makes sense. Testing is prioritized to people with symptoms, and older people are more likely to develop serious symptoms.

3% is helpful if those people have immunity, and it might suggest the fatality rate is much lower.

Quote
Van Dissel stressed that the investigation is still ongoing. But this suggests that individuals who have recovered from the coronavirus have "some degree of immunity". The RIVM previously said that people with milder symptoms seem to build up less immunity than people who became very ill from Covid-19.

This is far from a random sample of the population, of course. Blood donors tend to be healthy, for one thing.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 16, 2020, 04:45:23 PM
TheDrake,

I'd be interested what extent the COVID-19 antibody test they use cross reacts with antibodies for other coronaviruses.  My understanding is that most antibody tests significantly cross react with the other coronavirus antibodies and thus will have lots of false positives.

Quote
“A lot of these tests cross react with other coronaviruses. So, just as a reminder, there are four common coronavirus that are the cause of the common cold and so, if you have an antibody test that cross reacts and it says that you’ve had COVID-19, but really you had one of the common colds, then that gives you a false sense of security,” said Dr. Lee.

https://www.waff.com/2020/04/15/uab-doctor-weighs-accuracy-covid-antibody-test/
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 16, 2020, 04:50:07 PM
Yeah, until the actual study is out it is hard to know. And even if it is highly specific....

Quote
Here's what would happen if you used a test with 90% specificity in a population in which only 1% of the people have coronavirus. Nobody knows for sure, but that could be the situation in many parts of the country.

In that instance, more than 90% of the positive results would be false positives, and falsely reassuring. (You can run your own examples on the calculator on this page).
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 16, 2020, 05:00:44 PM
Meanwhile in South America...

Quote
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has fired Luiz Henrique Mandetta as minister of health, Mandetta said on Twitter Thursday afternoon.

But much of the country’s focus in recent days was on the widespread speculation that Bolsonaro was about to fire Mandetta, after the minister criticized the president on a popular news show for refusing to abide by the ministry’s social distancing guidelines.

In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil trails only the United States in confirmed cases of the virus. But Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the severity of the outbreak — dismissing the virus as a “little flu,” shrugging off social distancing recommendations from the World Health Organization and sharing videos calling for an end to the country’s lockdown.

Bolsonaro largely ignored those calls. On a visit with Mandetta last weekend to a pop-up hospital outside Brasilia, he walked into a crowd, took off his mask, extended his hand for a supporter to kiss and autographed jerseys.

Mandetta clearly and consistently walked back Bolsonaro’s erroneous claims on covid-19 with science and data. When deaths began to soar, Bolsonaro said the virus appeared to be going away; Mandetta warned of “tough days” ahead. When Bolsonaro touted an unproven cure for the virus — “This medicine here, hydroxychloroquine, is working everywhere,” he claimed in a video on Facebook and Twitter — Mandetta said he would not endorse widespread use of the drug without a peer-reviewed study.

Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have fallen to a record low of 28 percent during the outbreak, according to an XP Investments poll published last week. Sixty-eight percent of those surveyed, in contrast, said Mandetta and his Health Ministry were doing a good or excellent job.

I implore everyone to avoid drawing comparisons to the US, though some are obvious. This thread has stayed remarkably clean of US politics.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 16, 2020, 05:24:40 PM
Yep the specificities I've seen for most of these antibody tests is in the 90-98% range.

For instance this lists sensitivities and specificities for a large variety of COVID-19 tests, here is one example,

Quote
. The sensitivity is 93.8% and specificity is 95.6%, when tested at 2 Chinese hospitals in a total of 128 COVID19 positive patients, and 250 COVID19 negative patients (as detected by RT-qPCR).

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/serology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html

Thus if we tested a population of 1000 people who didn't have COVID-19 - we would get 440 false positives (4.4%).

As far as I'm aware there aren't any COVID-19 antibody tests that have low enough false positive rates that the 3% found wouldn't most likely be predomiantly false positive.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on April 16, 2020, 05:35:59 PM
Did you mean 44 false positives? Or 10,000 people?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 16, 2020, 05:39:07 PM
whoops, slipped a decimal 10,000 people.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 20, 2020, 01:52:20 PM
Meanwhile in South America...

Quote
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has fired Luiz Henrique Mandetta as minister of health, Mandetta said on Twitter Thursday afternoon.

But much of the country’s focus in recent days was on the widespread speculation that Bolsonaro was about to fire Mandetta, after the minister criticized the president on a popular news show for refusing to abide by the ministry’s social distancing guidelines.

In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil trails only the United States in confirmed cases of the virus. But Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the severity of the outbreak — dismissing the virus as a “little flu,” shrugging off social distancing recommendations from the World Health Organization and sharing videos calling for an end to the country’s lockdown.

Bolsonaro largely ignored those calls. On a visit with Mandetta last weekend to a pop-up hospital outside Brasilia, he walked into a crowd, took off his mask, extended his hand for a supporter to kiss and autographed jerseys.

Mandetta clearly and consistently walked back Bolsonaro’s erroneous claims on covid-19 with science and data. When deaths began to soar, Bolsonaro said the virus appeared to be going away; Mandetta warned of “tough days” ahead. When Bolsonaro touted an unproven cure for the virus — “This medicine here, hydroxychloroquine, is working everywhere,” he claimed in a video on Facebook and Twitter — Mandetta said he would not endorse widespread use of the drug without a peer-reviewed study.

Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have fallen to a record low of 28 percent during the outbreak, according to an XP Investments poll published last week. Sixty-eight percent of those surveyed, in contrast, said Mandetta and his Health Ministry were doing a good or excellent job.

I implore everyone to avoid drawing comparisons to the US, though some are obvious. This thread has stayed remarkably clean of US politics.

And now this:

Quote
As well as demanding an end to the lockdown, some of those attending the rally also held up signs calling for Brazil's Congress and the Supreme Court to be closed down.

Others said they wanted the military to take over the handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Brazil was under military rule for more than two decades from 1964 until 1985 and calls for the armed forces to be given more power are highly controversial.

While the president did not make any reference to those demands at the time, his appearance at the rally - at which people were calling for the closure of the country's democratic institutions - was labelled "provocative" by his critics.

On Monday, however, while talking to journalists, Mr Bolsonaro quickly responded to one of his supporters who called for the closure of the Supreme Court by stating that Brazil was a democratic country. He said that the nation's top court, as well as Congress, would remain open.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on April 21, 2020, 01:18:53 PM
Quote
Italy has reported 24,114 deaths, the highest recorded toll in Europe.

Data released on Monday showed the number of people officially confirmed as infected with coronavirus had dropped for the first time since the outbreak began. Italian authorities said the symbolic drop of 20 cases was a "positive development".

And finally a ray of sunshine for Italy!

Quote
Mr Conte posted his statement on Facebook on Tuesday morning, insisting the government was working non-stop to co-ordinate moves towards "phase two" of its lockdown - "coexistence" with the virus.

"I would like to be able to say, let's open everything. Right away," he wrote. "But such a decision would be irresponsible. It would make the contagion curve rise uncontrollably and would jeopardise all the efforts that we've made until now."

"The easing of measures must take place on the basis of a well-structured and articulated plan," he said, adding that Italy "cannot abandon the line of maximum caution".

Glad to see Italians are going to be prudent about opening gradually.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: LetterRip on April 21, 2020, 02:44:09 PM
So, pretty extreme measures and they have managed to get R to 1. Yikes.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on April 21, 2020, 02:50:15 PM
Yah, but they started too late...
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on April 21, 2020, 02:50:55 PM
So, pretty extreme measures and they have managed to get R to 1. Yikes.

The slow process to R = 1 is hampered by the lengthy incubation and recovery time. Also I'm sure not all the "recoveries" are tallied quickly, as those who recover most quickly are doing so at home without medical supervision. Testing still isn't up to the point that anyone is frequently testing people they already knew were positive to see if they stay that way.

But yes I find the slow incubation and the long period of time people are contagious very worrying.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on April 24, 2020, 07:42:36 AM
Another problem in the US is the slow decline of new cases (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/opinion/coronavirus-us-cases.html) after the supposed peak when compared to how other countries have fared.  The US rate is 2%; other countries range from 22% - 81% (excluding China, whose numbers are almost certainly unreliable).

Quote
The number of new cases appears to have peaked about a week and a half ago. But the decline since then has been very modest. There are still about 30,000 Americans being diagnosed each day. The seven-day moving average of new cases — a measure that smooths out daily fluctuations — has declined only 2 percent since it peaked 11 days ago.

As you can see in the chart [in the linked article], that’s not typical. In other countries, the number of new cases has usually declined much more sharply after peaking.

In other words, the US has "flattened the curve" of the decline in new cases found through testing while those other countries have a much steeper rate.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: fizz on May 07, 2020, 11:31:21 AM
An interesting summing up report translated in english on the events and timelines of the spread of the pandemic in Lombardy in the past months. (Warning: long article).

Quote
Il Post spoke with dozens of doctors, nurses, politicians, virologists and experts as well as ordinary people to gain an initial understanding of what happened in Lombardy, from pandemic preparedness to the peak of the crisis. Although there is no doubt that the picture we have is incomplete, it is a necessary first step in reconstructing an event whose consequences will have a long-term impact on us all.

https://www.ilpost.it/2020/05/07/two-months-that-shook-lombardy-to-the-core-coronavirus/
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on May 08, 2020, 08:48:31 AM
Sobering and disturbing account, which probably corresponds to how most other European countries and the US failed to act decisively early enough to detect and contain the virus.  Perhaps as much as any other failing are initial complacency and a lack of imagination on the part of the government.  I can relate.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on May 09, 2020, 08:29:07 AM
South Korea shuts bars following a cluster of new cases (https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-faces-flare-up-in-coronavirus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on May 29, 2020, 03:39:33 PM
Brazil was mentioned in another thread, and they are looking really scary. They are now experiencing more new cases than the US with 2/3 the population, and their testing 10x less than the US.

Their mass graves aren't hype. The pictures are disturbing. (https://www.businessinsider.com/photos-brazil-mass-graves-experts-anticipate-covid-19-deaths-2020-5)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on May 29, 2020, 04:02:40 PM
There are good reasons to believe the numbers reported by Brazil are bogus, and that only goes in one direction.  It reminds me that I heard a few weeks ago that there are two ways a pandemic ends, either it is cured or people stop thinking about it.  Bolsonaro is trying to hurry the second wing (aka plan B) of that process along.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on May 31, 2020, 07:16:26 AM
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.

Sort of; they closed large gatherings, high schools, colleges, and have people practicing social distancing. Sweden is a model for society after the full lock downs quash this initial spread. Their strategy isn't let the virus run rampant through younger people to build herd immunity in their society. What we need to see is if their measures are enough to keep the virus under control when implemented before the number of cases explodes.

At the beginning of this month Sweden's COVID-19 fatality rate per capita was 30% higher than the US.  Now it's about 36% higher (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?#countries).  They are protecting their elderly, but their overall approach isn't working all that well for the general population.  Their economy isn't likely to do better (https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-economy-likely-wont-benefit-from-decision-avoid-lockdown-report-2020-5) than their neighbors that implemented much stronger protective measures and have much lower fatality rates.

We need to stop selectively comparing and contrasting the US to other countries looking for escapes or excuses to avoid doing what needs to be done.  It may be too late for the first wave of the virus, which IMO will be the most deadly and destructive, but there are more waves to come that will cause great harm and havoc.  I haven't heard of a single recommendation from the CDC or White House for what they plan to do about this in the fall.  That is a reprehensible and immoral failure that borders on criminal.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on June 01, 2020, 11:56:06 PM
Brazil and India are still showing large increases in cases. Its going to be a long year.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 04, 2020, 09:15:42 AM
Sweden "regrets" their approach to stopping coronavirus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200604&instance_id=19074&nl=the-morning&regi_id=869778&segment_id=30049&te=1&user_id=9e9f04c8f6e837007d83b32749ed41fd):

Quote
Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and the architect of its light-touch approach to the coronavirus has acknowledged that the country has had too many deaths from Covid-19 and should have done more to curb the spread of the virus.

Anders Tegnell, who has previously criticised other countries’ strict lockdowns as not sustainable in the long run, told Swedish Radio on Wednesday that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done” in Sweden.

Asked whether too many people in Sweden had died, he replied: “Yes, absolutely,” adding that the country would “have to consider in the future whether there was a way of preventing” such a high toll.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 04, 2020, 11:09:34 AM
Quote
Sweden "regrets" their approach to stopping coronavirus:

I realize that quotes are usually used to signify something someone said or wrote verbatim, but can also be used to characterize what someone said or wrote.  That's what I was doing here, since that word didn't appear in the article I linked to, but it was the sentiment.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 05, 2020, 08:42:02 PM
Quote
There is no way yet to get a handle on the scope of the death and infection caused by the novel coronavirus. Official figures are issued by official sources and most observers estimate that infections and deaths are vastly underreported; in Brazil the cases are estimated to be 10 to 30 times greater than the official numbers. So statistics mean next to nothing at the present — only that things are bad.

Brazil’s official death count stood at 32,548 Wednesday night, Mexico’s at 11,729. In both countries the virus is raging; both countries’ presidents continue to try to minimize the seriousness of the situation.

Brazil’s health system has collapsed or is about to collapse, depending on the region. There are no intensive-care beds in many hospitals, especially the public ones where the poor and the marginalized are attended by woefully inadequate systems and services.

In many cases the infected are encouraged to stay indoors and isolate. In other cases, especially in Ecuador, people have died by the thousand in their homes, and occasionally on the streets.

To make matters worse, the municipal workers hired to collect the dead were overwhelmed, and after the corpses started to rot they were dragged to the streets and in some cases torched.

Latin America failed to contain Covid-19. It was too resilient to be overcome by a few weeks of quarantine. After 70 days of lockdowns the pressure to reopen was too powerful. Chile has suffered a second wave of infection after relaxing the quarantine too early and was forced to order an even more severe lockdown.

When Peru shut down the economy there were no buses or trains to take peasants back to their villages in the Andes, so people walked for days to get back to their families. In Colombia, thousands of Venezuelans who lost their aspirations returned to Venezuela, where Covid-19 is somewhat under control.

Paraguay, Uruguay and Costa Rica have better health outcomes and have begun the resumption of normality. With small populations, low population density and universal healthcare, they showed that the Covid pandemic can be controlled.

But two of the largest Latin American nations, Mexico and Brazil, are unable to cope with basic respiratory therapy for the dying. There are shortages of bottled oxygen, black-market prices gouge people for masks, medicines and palliative care — and for caskets and funerals.

Budget burials involve large holes in the ground with plastic bags instead of coffins.

In El Salvador the battle against Covid-19 is compromised by politicians and some sectors of the ruling class who insist that quarantines are unconstitutional and that to decree them is an abuse of power by President Nayib Bukele. The slogan one hears from the right is that Bukele is a dictator and should be removed from office.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 06, 2020, 06:13:53 AM
 :'(
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on June 06, 2020, 07:35:36 PM
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.

Sort of; they closed large gatherings, high schools, colleges, and have people practicing social distancing. Sweden is a model for society after the full lock downs quash this initial spread. Their strategy isn't let the virus run rampant through younger people to build herd immunity in their society. What we need to see is if their measures are enough to keep the virus under control when implemented before the number of cases explodes.

At the beginning of this month Sweden's COVID-19 fatality rate per capita was 30% higher than the US.  Now it's about 36% higher (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?#countries).  They are protecting their elderly, but their overall approach isn't working all that well for the general population.  Their economy isn't likely to do better (https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-economy-likely-wont-benefit-from-decision-avoid-lockdown-report-2020-5) than their neighbors that implemented much stronger protective measures and have much lower fatality rates.

We need to stop selectively comparing and contrasting the US to other countries looking for escapes or excuses to avoid doing what needs to be done.  It may be too late for the first wave of the virus, which IMO will be the most deadly and destructive, but there are more waves to come that will cause great harm and havoc.  I haven't heard of a single recommendation from the CDC or White House for what they plan to do about this in the fall.  That is a reprehensible and immoral failure that borders on criminal.

It isn't over until the fat lady sings. we'll see what everybody's fatality rates look like once we're on the other side. The dick measuring contest at present is pointless. The only metrics that are meaningful for real-time analysis is rate of spread, and available bed space for treatment of severe cases.

Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 06, 2020, 09:29:45 PM
Quote
Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.

Never admit you might be wrong. How long are you willing to wait?  A year, 5 years...?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on June 07, 2020, 02:36:44 AM
Quote
Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.

Never admit you might be wrong. How long are you willing to wait?  A year, 5 years...?

A year is probably going to be more than sufficient. But "we don't know" at this time is the best answer available at this time. It could easily turn out to be 2 years, but the further out that time horizon runs, the better the odds should look for Sweden having made the right decision at the start.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 07, 2020, 03:59:38 AM
Quote
Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.

Never admit you might be wrong. How long are you willing to wait?  A year, 5 years...?

A year is probably going to be more than sufficient. But "we don't know" at this time is the best answer available at this time. It could easily turn out to be 2 years, but the further out that time horizon runs, the better the odds should look for Sweden having made the right decision at the start.

They just said they are giving up the approach and are going to use a new one.  In a year you'll see the results of how the new approach performed.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 07, 2020, 04:44:36 PM
Of the 120 countries in the world that have reported at least 1000 coronavirus cases, the US has climbed into 8th place on the number of deaths per capita.  We now have 1 death for every 2943 citizens.  Sweden remains in 5th place.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on June 07, 2020, 07:35:58 PM
A year is probably going to be more than sufficient. But "we don't know" at this time is the best answer available at this time. It could easily turn out to be 2 years, but the further out that time horizon runs, the better the odds should look for Sweden having made the right decision at the start.

They just said they are giving up the approach and are going to use a new one.  In a year you'll see the results of how the new approach performed.

Well, that'll certainly complicate things.

But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases? This does naturally run against the "hedge" of a vaccination strategy bearing fruit in the first year.

The virus spread far enough in Europe and the US by the start of March that the genie was never going back in the bottle. Track and trace can slow it down, but will never fully stop it. Lockdowns at this point have only been shown to slow it down, and unless you want to go full on totalitarian, even that cannot extinguish the virus once established in the population.

The George Floyd Protests are almost certainly going to spike it as well, and we're at the stage where a second lockdown is no longer politically viable. (On both sides)

It will be "interesting" to see just how close we push the needle to the limits of hospital capacity before this concludes. But much of the western world, thanks in no small part to George Floyd, is now likely going to have been better off to have done what Sweden did in the first place, even as Sweden backs away from it.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 07, 2020, 09:13:18 PM
Quote
But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Fenring on June 07, 2020, 10:16:28 PM
Quote
But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.

I don't think you read that right. The longer the clock remain running, which means that the fewer people there are not exposed to it, the less of a killing zone that would be. Just to take it to the extreme, if lockdowns continue until 99% of the population is either a carrier or has gotten it already, it would clearly be better to open up rather than to keep a lockdown and wait another year for the vaccine. This is, of course, assuming that there is no mutation or that the same people can't get it over and over. That said, if they could, would a vaccine even work anyhow?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on June 07, 2020, 10:21:37 PM
Quote
But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.

The ones who implemented more stringent restrictions aren't very good on civil rights in the first place. For many of the other countries that have attempted it, they're going to be able to sustain it indefinitely, the cracks are already starting to show. They probably have 6 another months at most, they're not going to make it to when the vaccine's are supposed to maybe become widely available. If they're effective.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on June 07, 2020, 10:25:20 PM
Quote
But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.

I don't think you read that right. The longer the clock remain running, which means that the fewer people there are not exposed to it, the less of a killing zone that would be. Just to take it to the extreme, if lockdowns continue until 99% of the population is either a carrier or has gotten it already, it would clearly be better to open up rather than to keep a lockdown and wait another year for the vaccine. This is, of course, assuming that there is no mutation or that the same people can't get it over and over. That said, if they could, would a vaccine even work anyhow?

Pretty much this. The longer the clock continues to run, the greater the risk of virtually everyone having been infected anyway. At which point all these countries turned their economies upside down for what exactly?

As to virus immunity duration vs mutation rate. So long as they can keep the vaccine "reasonably effective" on mitigating Covid19's impacts, they may end up with a big-pharma wet dream, and the "Tin-Foil Hat Club's" worst nightmare. An illness that in order to be protected from it, you need to be given a booster shot every 3/6/9 months for the next several years, or maybe even decades.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 08, 2020, 03:58:08 AM
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on June 08, 2020, 07:10:17 AM
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?

Also even countries that have pursued limited shut downs, which Sweden did by closing schools and limiting large gatherings are only about 1/50 of the way to herd immunity. So they aren't any better off that way than their neighbors. This idea that any country that hasn't severely reduced their infections isn't better off than a country with a 1-2% herd immunity rate and more infections is pure fantasy.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 08, 2020, 08:38:00 PM
The biggest problem with herd immunity, is that currently we don't even know that you have immunity after having the disease.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on June 09, 2020, 12:06:10 AM
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?

But you're betting on a thing which might not happen this year, or next, or the year after that.

I think we have decent odds on a vaccine before the end of the year, but that's a far cry from certainty. If you're wrong what then? Move the goalposts because the breakthrough that'll save us all "is just months away" from then?

This also ignores that the strict control measures can only remain in place for so long. You're not keeping them up for the better part of a year in much of the world.

In the mean time, even the partial lockdown is costing a lot of small and medium sized businesses a lot of money on a daily basis. Which brings us to the question of how society wants to weigh "the cost" of doing things. There is a growing body of evidence that many of the precautions against Covid19 may be nearly as bad as the virus itself.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 09, 2020, 06:39:52 AM
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?

But you're betting on a thing which might not happen this year, or next, or the year after that.

Neither, necessarily, will herd immunity, since no country has succeeded with that strategy.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 10, 2020, 06:28:31 AM
The US has now pushed past Ireland to the 8th highest per capita death rate in the world and will surpass the Netherlands in a matter of weeks.  The US death rate is not declining, and will likely increase over the next month with the relaxation of mask and distancing restrictions due to states reopening and the ongoing protests.  The latest statistics show that France, with about 20% of the population of the US, is recording new deaths at about 8% the rate of the US and is declining.  The US rate likely will catch up to France before the end of July.

Sweden remains in 5th place with a steady fatality rate and will likely stay in that position behind Italy, Spain, UK and Belgium, which are all steady or declining, unless they have a sustained spike in deaths in the coming months.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Crunch on June 10, 2020, 10:08:23 AM
The biggest problem with herd immunity, is that currently we don't even know that you have immunity after having the disease.

From  The Journal of the American Medical Association:

Quote
To date, no human reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 have been confirmed.
That was a few weeks ago, have there been any confirmed reinfections since then?

Quote
Whether persons can be reinfected with SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV is unknown; SARS has not reemerged since 2004 and MERS cases remain sporadic, Reinfections can occur with at least 3 of the other 4 common human coronaviruses—specifically, 229E, NL63, and OC43—all of which generally cause milder respiratory illnesses.

Quote
For example, following infection with SARS-CoV-1 (the virus that caused SARS), concentrations of IgG remained high for approximately 4 to 5 months before subsequently declining slowly during the next 2 to 3 years.4 Similarly, NAbs following infection with MERS-CoV (the virus that caused Middle East respiratory syndrome) have persisted up to 34 months in recovered patients

Why should we think COVID will be different than these other similar virii? So far, the vast majority of what we were told to be scared of was wildly exaggerated. I suspect the same here.

Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 11, 2020, 02:10:25 PM
And now we are going to see the results of a do-nothing and pretend strategy, assuming we can get the data.

Quote
Brazil’s government last week removed comprehensive numbers on coronavirus cases and deaths from the Health Ministry’s website, claiming without offering evidence that state officials had been reporting inflated figures to secure more federal funding. Late Monday, a Supreme Court justice ordered the government to stop suppressing the data.

They had 30,000 new cases in one day. They never slowed down the first wave before reopening.

new cases (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/americas/brazil-coronavirus-cases.html#cases)

Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 12, 2020, 04:38:28 PM
The US COVID-19 fatality rate (not the total number of deaths) will pass The Netherlands in the next few days.  When our death toll reaches about 160,000 we will overtake France's rate into 6th place and remain behind Sweden for some period of time.  As I mentioned, Dr. Jha who heads the Harvard Global Health Department, anticipates that the US will surpass 200,000 deaths sometime in September.  It's too soon to predict, but given the determination of Trump and many states to ignore safety precautions, the US may have the highest death rate in the world by next spring.  We are the only major country in the world (outside of Brazil and one or two others with far fewer cases) that treats the disease as a political problem for election and government control purposes, not a health issue of monumental proportions.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 15, 2020, 01:32:16 PM
Quote
Before reopening, Pakistan had recorded about 25,000 infections. A month later, the country recorded an additional 100,000 cases — almost certainly an undercount — and the pandemic shows no signs of abating. At least 2,729 people have died, according to a Times database.

Pakistan is now reporting so many new cases that it is among the World Health Organization’s top 10 countries where the virus is on the rise. The W.H.O. wrote a letter criticizing the government’s efforts on June 7 and recommended that a lockdown be reimposed, stating that Pakistan did not meet any of the criteria needed to lift it.

Compounding the dire situation, medical workers across Pakistan are being assaulted on a near-daily basis for not being able to admit patients or having to tell families that their loved ones had died.

“Our hospitals are completely exhausted,” said one doctor, who asked for his name to be withheld because he is a government employee.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 16, 2020, 01:01:45 PM
I don't think we can trust the data coming out of Brazil any more. After it took an action of their Supreme Court to force the government to resume publishing data, we see a leveling off of new cases reported. There is no good explanation for why that would happen. Brazil's health minister position is now filled by a general with no medical experience, and he is appointing other people with military backgrounds to health ministry positions. This of course was on top of inadequate testing in the first place.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 16, 2020, 01:07:36 PM
The best method we will have in the US is to look at excess deaths during the period in which the pandemic flourished, and that will only give a statistical valuation.  The 1918 flu pandemic death totals were vastly undercounted during the time of the disease and only reconciled against total deaths retrospectively.  For all we know, Brazil may not even record all deaths in an accessible way, so it's very possible we'll never know how badly the country was hit.  One more country to cross off my list of places to visit before I take my long rest.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 16, 2020, 01:13:17 PM
There are always the problems in recording. Brazilians living in villages are likely going to just get sick and die without ever contacting a doctor, let alone getting a test or having a way to report. But that doesn't explain the leveling off of the data that they are able to gather.

There will be evidence of massive death in cities as they overrun healthcare and the ability to handle remains. Likely hard to quantify meaningfully, but impossible to hide.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Fenring on June 16, 2020, 01:22:23 PM
This may be a funny question, but who cares about what Brazil is reporting? Why focus on them if they're so wacky?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 16, 2020, 01:41:51 PM
Because Brazil can be a bellwether for what a worst case might be without other countries having to experience it themselves. There is no perfect correlation, because cultures, demographics, living conditions, healthcare capacity, and many other factors are never going to match up. They are currently, however, #2 worldwide in reported deaths which immediately makes them worth paying attention to just on humanitarian grounds.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 16, 2020, 01:43:41 PM
Their leader is also the most fatalistic about the risk to his people worldwide (ignoring the US to keep this thread relatively clean of all the other discussions we've been having).

Quote
President Jair Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly minimized the threat, said, “We are sorry for all the dead, but that’s everyone’s destiny.”
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 16, 2020, 02:49:24 PM
Quote
“We are sorry for all the dead, but that’s everyone’s destiny.”

That comes dangerously close to declaring that people have no rights other than to die.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on June 16, 2020, 02:59:17 PM
This may be a funny question, but who cares about what Brazil is reporting? Why focus on them if they're so wacky?
Because this topic is literally named "covid-19 outside the US", and Brazil is #2 in deaths worldwide and making all the noise.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: cherrypoptart on June 17, 2020, 07:04:00 AM
They were working on a mask requirement bill. I hope that helps them. We should be doing the same.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Fenring on June 17, 2020, 11:27:49 AM
This may be a funny question, but who cares about what Brazil is reporting? Why focus on them if they're so wacky?
Because this topic is literally named "covid-19 outside the US", and Brazil is #2 in deaths worldwide and making all the noise.

Yes, I know it's a big country and all that. But if reporting and data from there are so unreliable, then it seems like spinning wheels to discuss numbers from there. I dunno, carry on.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on June 17, 2020, 11:34:00 AM
This may be a funny question, but who cares about what Brazil is reporting? Why focus on them if they're so wacky?
Because this topic is literally named "covid-19 outside the US", and Brazil is #2 in deaths worldwide and making all the noise.

Yes, I know it's a big country and all that. But if reporting and data from there are so unreliable, then it seems like spinning wheels to discuss numbers from there. I dunno, carry on.

The numbers from there if anything are under reported. I don't think there is any reason to believe they are being exaggerated.  So discussing what is happening in Brazil isn't just spinning our wheels its just talking about basically what the best case scenario for their country is right now.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 17, 2020, 11:41:52 AM
Having real numbers also helps to understand the overall impact of the pandemic.  If Brazil loses 10x their population to the disease than they want to report, then their economy will be far more affected and we will know the disease itself is that much more dangerous.  It's already bad enough to require a global effort to overcome it, but that's not happening (mainly due to Trump's intransigence).  If we create enough vaccine doses just to treat the false expectation of the disease spread, many more people will die or become sick for long periods than would otherwise happen.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 17, 2020, 12:34:27 PM
It's already bad enough to require a global effort to overcome it, but that's not happening (mainly due to Trump's intransigence).

Believe me, Bolsonaro is not affected in the least by anything Trump does in this crisis, nor is any other world leader.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 17, 2020, 12:41:03 PM
It's already bad enough to require a global effort to overcome it, but that's not happening (mainly due to Trump's intransigence).

Believe me, Bolsonaro is not affected in the least by anything Trump does in this crisis, nor is any other world leader.

I heard Robert Gates last night lamenting the decline of US influence and leadership in the world.  I wonder who he might have been thinking of when he said that...
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 17, 2020, 04:04:45 PM
It's already bad enough to require a global effort to overcome it, but that's not happening (mainly due to Trump's intransigence).

Believe me, Bolsonaro is not affected in the least by anything Trump does in this crisis, nor is any other world leader.

Brazil is not alone in undercounting COVID-19 deaths.  By analyzing excess deaths in the US, the "official" count may be somewhere between 20,000-70,000 below actual totals.  Both the University of Washington and the head of the Harvard Global Health Department predict the samewise "official" US death total will exceed 200,000 by October 1.  In terms of rates and trends, that would mean that it took 129 days for the US to record the first 100,000 deaths and will record the next 100,000 deaths in the succeeding 128 days.

In the usual manner of confused statements, Trump is pushing to move the date of release of a vaccine up to October, without any medical guidance, and "the Administration" has said that it is unlikely that a vaccine will be available before January.  The latter statement doesn't say it will be available in January, just not before then.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 17, 2020, 04:28:00 PM
It's already bad enough to require a global effort to overcome it, but that's not happening (mainly due to Trump's intransigence).

Believe me, Bolsonaro is not affected in the least by anything Trump does in this crisis, nor is any other world leader.

Brazil is not alone in undercounting COVID-19 deaths.  By analyzing excess deaths in the US, the "official" count may be somewhere between 20,000-70,000 below actual totals.  Both the University of Washington and the head of the Harvard Global Health Department predict the samewise "official" US death total will exceed 200,000 by October 1.  In terms of rates and trends, that would mean that it took 129 days for the US to record the first 100,000 deaths and will record the next 100,000 deaths in the succeeding 128 days.

In the usual manner of confused statements, Trump is pushing to move the date of release of a vaccine up to October, without any medical guidance, and "the Administration" has said that it is unlikely that a vaccine will be available before January.  The latter statement doesn't say it will be available in January, just not before then.

You just can't help turning every possible subject into a commentary on Trump, can you?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 17, 2020, 04:38:44 PM
He is the most powerful world leader, after all.  The fall of a sparrow can be traced...
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on June 19, 2020, 12:32:24 PM
Brazil and Mexico had more deaths than the US yesterday.

Brazil 1204
Mexico 770
USA 747

Brazil's testing is atrocious, 10x less than us or mexico.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on June 19, 2020, 12:47:41 PM
India is terrifying right now.

Their number of cases is exploding, but I completely doubt their ability to track actual infection rates, never mind the number of deaths.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on June 23, 2020, 08:38:41 AM
More on India, sounds pretty dire.

Quote
India has ended its coronavirus lockdown. Social media is flooded with pleas for COVID-19 tests and hospital beds. The virus is surging — collapsing the country's health system.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/23/881992601/india-reports-record-number-of-coronavirus-cases-nearly-every-day (https://www.npr.org/2020/06/23/881992601/india-reports-record-number-of-coronavirus-cases-nearly-every-day)

Transcript isn't up yet but one detail from the story that is horrific is that people are literally dying outside of hospitals waiting to get in.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 23, 2020, 09:06:19 AM
The latest update on the Swedish model (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-pariah-scandinavia.html). The US has the highest number of deaths, but Sweden's death rate is increasing faster:

Quote
Every summer for the past 13 years, fans of Nordic culture have gathered on the Norway side of the border with Sweden for the outdoor festival Allsang pa Grensen, which translates roughly to, “Singsong Along the Border.”

But this summer, there will not be any Swedish singers in the live broadcast event, nor will there be any Swedish fans in the audience, singing and clapping along. This year, Swedes are forbidden to enter Norway.

And Norway isn’t the only Scandinavian neighbor barring Swedes from visiting this summer. Denmark and Finland have also closed their borders to Swedes, fearing that they would bring new coronavirus infections with them.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: yossarian22c on June 23, 2020, 10:52:46 AM
The latest update on the Swedish model (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/22/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-pariah-scandinavia.html). The US has the highest number of deaths, but Sweden's death rate is increasing faster:

Sweden shouldn't really be held up as a "herd immunity," open society policy. They closed schools, limited indoor capacity at restaurants and other venues and generally had a populace that tried to maintain some social distancing. Basically Sweden was a phase 1 or phase 2 reopening by the American standards the entire time. Brazil is the let it run wild national policy, even though some states and municipalities tried to limit it further. Brazil and India are going to be bad. India doesn't have the will and/or economic capacity to go back into shut down and the president of Brazil seems intent on letting it run wild and trying to hide the data of how bad it actually is.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 23, 2020, 01:09:33 PM
Should we appreciate Bolsonaro if he claims he's trying to create herd immunity?  He seems to be doing it the right way by doing nothing.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on June 23, 2020, 01:25:16 PM
Should we appreciate Bolsonaro if he claims he's trying to create herd immunity?  He seems to be doing it the right way by doing nothing.

No, because he isn't trying to ensure health services are available to ensure the sick have every chance possible to survive being infected. He's allowing his health system to be over-run.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 23, 2020, 02:13:48 PM
Should we appreciate Bolsonaro if he claims he's trying to create herd immunity?  He seems to be doing it the right way by doing nothing.

No, because he isn't trying to ensure health services are available to ensure the sick have every chance possible to survive being infected. He's allowing his health system to be over-run.

No, because they were trying to ensure slaves were available to ensure their white owners had every chance possible to become rich from their labor. They were allowing the plantation system to be over-seen.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: Kasandra on June 23, 2020, 03:15:15 PM
Wrong thread....ignore...

Should we appreciate Bolsonaro if he claims he's trying to create herd immunity?  He seems to be doing it the right way by doing nothing.

No, because he isn't trying to ensure health services are available to ensure the sick have every chance possible to survive being infected. He's allowing his health system to be over-run.

No, because they were trying to ensure slaves were available to ensure their white owners had every chance possible to become rich from their labor. They were allowing the plantation system to be over-seen.

Wrong thread....ignore...
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on July 09, 2020, 03:05:57 PM
Bolsonaro is definitely doing his part to create herd immunity.

Quote
During a Tuesday press conference, Bolsonaro announced he had tested positive for COVID-19. He then backed away from reporters and removed his mask, to show that he was doing well.

The ABI says the 65-year-old president violated Article 131 of the country's criminal code that includes transmitting to others a serious disease of which he or she is infected, or any act that may cause contagion, under penalty of one to four years in prison as well as a fine.

Journalists sue Brazil's Bolsonaro for putting them at risk following coronavirus diagnosis (https://www.foxnews.com/world/bolsonaro-coronavirus-journalists-sue)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on July 14, 2020, 04:18:48 PM
On May 15, Israel reported just 10 new daily cases. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/)

On May 17, Israel reopened its schools.

Within 2 weeks, new cases started to explode - For the past week, Israel has reported 1200 or more new daily cases every day, spiking to 2000 new daily cases yesterday.

Their case numbers have re-doubled seven times in the past 2 months.  It took about 5 weeks for the daily deaths to start significantly increasing.

Did I mention they were down to 10 new daily cases reported on May 15, 2 days before reopening their schools?

Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains (https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains)

Quote
The country’s schools reopened abruptly in mid-May, after plans were shelved for a gradual reentry in which students were meant to meet in “capsules” of 15 to provide adequate room for social distancing. Instead, most returned to classrooms of 30 to 40 students where the education-ministry guidelines to sit 6.5 feet apart were impossible to follow. Enforcing rules to wear masks appeared spotty at best.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on July 15, 2020, 03:10:22 PM
Quote
In June, a judge closed a JBS plant in the remote Amazon town of São Miguel do Guaporé in the north-west of Brazil for the second time after infections rocketed. As of 25 June, 377 of the plant’s 940 employees were infected – then more than half of the town’s caseload, prosecutors said.

Leandro da Conceição, 33, one of the workers in the plant, said he lost his sense of smell and taste. When he told his supervisor, he was ignored and kept working even though he got sicker and sicker.

“It reached a point I couldn’t stand it any more. I told my superior I was not well,” he told the Guardian. “His focus was the cows, not the employees, it was production.”

Conceição was sent home after he produced his own positive test result. He and another worker later lost their jobs after a WhatsApp audio that featured them and other workers complaining about infections at the plant was published by local media. Both men were told falling production was the motive. “They had no reason to sack us,” he said. “I never missed work.”

Local labour prosecutor Helena Romero said: “We realised that the company was not carrying out containment measures, we observed that often workers kept working even though they had symptoms, and this could have contributed to spreading the illness.” The plant has since reopened.

não é bom (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/15/brazil-meat-plants-linked-to-spread-of-covid-19)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: rightleft22 on July 15, 2020, 03:51:56 PM
Quote
In June, a judge closed a JBS plant in the remote Amazon town of São Miguel do Guaporé in the north-west of Brazil for the second time after infections rocketed. As of 25 June, 377 of the plant’s 940 employees were infected – then more than half of the town’s caseload, prosecutors said.

Leandro da Conceição, 33, one of the workers in the plant, said he lost his sense of smell and taste. When he told his supervisor, he was ignored and kept working even though he got sicker and sicker.

“It reached a point I couldn’t stand it any more. I told my superior I was not well,” he told the Guardian. “His focus was the cows, not the employees, it was production.”

Conceição was sent home after he produced his own positive test result. He and another worker later lost their jobs after a WhatsApp audio that featured them and other workers complaining about infections at the plant was published by local media. Both men were told falling production was the motive. “They had no reason to sack us,” he said. “I never missed work.”

Local labour prosecutor Helena Romero said: “We realised that the company was not carrying out containment measures, we observed that often workers kept working even though they had symptoms, and this could have contributed to spreading the illness.” The plant has since reopened.

não é bom (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/15/brazil-meat-plants-linked-to-spread-of-covid-19)

The laws surrounding sick leave are going to have to be updated.

I wonder if the workers have case to sue
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: fizz on July 29, 2020, 03:19:31 AM
[link=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/29/italy-walking-a-fine-line-on-coronavirus-infections] English language article on Italian pandemic management status [/link]
I can more or less confirm what's going on: people mostly behave, and it seems that really a modicum of social distancing, mask wearing and handwashing are sufficient to keep the situation on the slow burner.

A bit worried because of course the local right wingers, that during the worst of the first wave kept silent for a while, now exactly because situation is going on smoothly are starting to make noises about coronavirus being a sham, about wanting to get rid of facemasks and so on, following the usual playbook. And with the media stirring the pot, I'm hearing normal people starting to catch on these ideas and repeating them around.

Also worried because my dad, 74 and a bit of a conspiracy fancier (all the usual stuff: George Soros as the evil incarnate, World New Order, chemtrails, climate change is a scam, you know, all the usual stuff you collect on internet forums), of course attached himself to the "the virus is a big scam" wagon and refuses to behave (putting by the way at risk my mother too).
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: cherrypoptart on July 29, 2020, 09:21:01 PM
I believe if the U.S. had been under mando-masking since January we might only have a few thousand dead right now like Japan with only about one thousand dead. The problem is one you point out though, that if that had actually happened people wouldn't be taking the virus seriously enough and would be saying that it was a scam and the discomfort of masks was completely unnecessary. They are saying that now anyway even with our over 150,000 dead but it would have been louder. Maybe it was necessary to get an idea of how bad this virus can be without public mask usage just to get people on-board with masking up. If we keep the masks on for at least the next four months or so we should start to get a very good idea of their effectiveness. I don't expect to see results for a least a couple more months but after that my hope is the results will be dramatic in a very good way and the most dramatic in the places with the most stringent policies. We may be in for a disappointment of course and it's still all contingent on people wearing them in the right way at the right time, but we can always hope, do what we can with what we've got, and knock on wood. I am disappointed though that we still don't have enough N95 masks for casual public consumption yet.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on July 29, 2020, 10:33:23 PM
There's a saying - intelligence is learning from your mistakes, but wisdom is learning from other people's mistakes.

What's happening in the USA is something else altogether.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on July 30, 2020, 01:43:24 AM
There's a saying - intelligence is learning from your mistakes, but wisdom is learning from other people's mistakes.

What's happening in the USA is something else altogether.

Well see, I'm increasing hewing towards Covid19 is the common cold.... Before the common cold killed off the portion of the human population that was highly susceptible to it. In retrospect, if you view it that way, it kind of works when you consider the huge die-off of native populations that happened after the Europeans arrived. "The common cold" was probably something Eurasia encountered after they'd crossed the landbridge into the Americas and it was subsequently flooded.

We might get a vaccine with limited effectiveness which requires booster shots every 2 to 3 months, but I think even many in Europe are going to balk at continuing that kind of vaccination regime for more than a year. It's not going away, its here to stay, and it sucks for the people who are going to lose the genetic lottery in regards to vulnerability to it. All they can do at this point is those vaccines are found to be viable, and there is a discrete way to test for the relevant markers to see if they are in the group who will continue to need booster shots every 2 to 3 months possibly for the rest of their life.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on July 30, 2020, 06:48:16 AM
That's an interesting theory, but do you think any significant number of US residents screaming "my rights!" have done such an analysis and come to that conclusion?  That they accept that millions will die, so it is better to "get 'er done", and cut out the middleman?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on July 30, 2020, 12:54:29 PM
Satire:

Quote
STANFORD, CA—In a survey of how the nation’s local officials have responded to the pandemic in the absence of a consistent federal approach, Stanford University researchers confirmed Monday that more cities have begun offering drive-thru Covid-19 injection sites to put citizens out of their misery. “By injecting people with SARS-CoV-2, these pop-up locations provide an effective way to escape the endless anguish, gloom, and isolation this virus has inflicted upon us—and all from the convenience of one’s car,” said report co-author Sara Pappas, explaining that a certain percentage of those receiving the injection inevitably die, but whether through death or immunity, all those infected receive sweet release from an untenable situation they just can’t take anymore. “Individuals who have experienced feelings of hopelessness or despair in recent months may wish to seek out one of these drive-up facilities. Restaurant and service workers who interact with the public on a regular basis can generally receive their injections for free, and those with health insurance are covered as well, with most insurers paying the full cost of the injection and up to 10% of any subsequent hospitalizations.” Pappas went on to state that if only 80 to 90% of Americans would visit these Covid-19 injection sites, the pandemic would be over in weeks.

drive through injections (https://www.theonion.com/more-cities-offering-drive-thru-covid-injection-sites-t-1844521509)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on July 30, 2020, 12:56:06 PM
There's a saying - intelligence is learning from your mistakes, but wisdom is learning from other people's mistakes.

What's happening in the USA is something else altogether.

Well see, I'm increasing hewing towards Covid19 is the common cold.... Before the common cold killed off the portion of the human population that was highly susceptible to it. In retrospect, if you view it that way, it kind of works when you consider the huge die-off of native populations that happened after the Europeans arrived. "The common cold" was probably something Eurasia encountered after they'd crossed the landbridge into the Americas and it was subsequently flooded.

We might get a vaccine with limited effectiveness which requires booster shots every 2 to 3 months, but I think even many in Europe are going to balk at continuing that kind of vaccination regime for more than a year. It's not going away, its here to stay, and it sucks for the people who are going to lose the genetic lottery in regards to vulnerability to it. All they can do at this point is those vaccines are found to be viable, and there is a discrete way to test for the relevant markers to see if they are in the group who will continue to need booster shots every 2 to 3 months possibly for the rest of their life.

What if we had that attitude about Measles, Smallpox, and Polio?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: rightleft22 on July 30, 2020, 01:24:34 PM
Quote
What if we had that attitude about Measles, Smallpox, and Polio?

I don't think you can compare Covid-19 with the above issues.
Every virus has its unique characteristic and covid appears to be similar to the Spanish flu if less deadly.

The Spanish flu is reported to have cause the deaths of 50 million people in a three year time frame and then 'disappeared' (actually it can be traced as being part of other viruses just not as deadly for those that survived) so the Deamon may be correct in that Covid-19 will go the same way.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on July 30, 2020, 04:17:33 PM
Well see, I'm increasing hewing towards Covid19 is the common cold.... Before the common cold killed off the portion of the human population that was highly susceptible to it. In retrospect, if you view it that way, it kind of works when you consider the huge die-off of native populations that happened after the Europeans arrived. "The common cold" was probably something Eurasia encountered after they'd crossed the landbridge into the Americas and it was subsequently flooded.

We might get a vaccine with limited effectiveness which requires booster shots every 2 to 3 months, but I think even many in Europe are going to balk at continuing that kind of vaccination regime for more than a year. It's not going away, its here to stay, and it sucks for the people who are going to lose the genetic lottery in regards to vulnerability to it. All they can do at this point is those vaccines are found to be viable, and there is a discrete way to test for the relevant markers to see if they are in the group who will continue to need booster shots every 2 to 3 months possibly for the rest of their life.

What if we had that attitude about Measles, Smallpox, and Polio?

They're different for a very blatantly obvious reason: Immunity to those illnesses last for years or even decades. And while contagious, thanks to that long lasting immunity, spread could be limited to a fair degree without extreme measures. Containment measures which historically speaking were rarely taken anyhow.

Of course, for the western world, most of those vaccines were in wide use before overpopulation hysterias began, and leading scientists started talking about population controls and forced sterilizations... Which is why Smallpox to this day remains the only virus that has been reliably removed from natural circulation. The vaxxer's don't just exist in the west, they exist in the third world. Where they're rejecting Polio and Measels vaccines because they're afraid its part of a plot to sterilize them and their children. For vaccines that only need to administered only once or twice over a period of time.

Now imagine the paranoia about a vaccine you need to receive every few months. Sure they might not sterilize you this time but what about the next?

I'll probably get the vaccine once its available, but I have family who will be waiting to see what the side effects are first, although some of them have other health considerations, like auto-immune disorders, to warrant caution on their part. But even for me, I'm not sure I'm going to be so amenable to continue getting booster shots every few months 2 years from now, or especially 5 years from now.

"Most people" who do agree to getting the shots will probably only take it during the first year of availability. After that, they'll only look at getting the "booster" in the event of a verified outbreak in their community, if even then.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on July 30, 2020, 08:45:04 PM
Where are you getting the data that you'd need 5-6 shots per year? I haven't seen any data, and the flu is just an annual cocktail of the major strains. I think they just don't know yet. But if we could get down to influenza levels we could live with it.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on July 31, 2020, 01:33:39 AM
Where are you getting the data that you'd need 5-6 shots per year? I haven't seen any data, and the flu is just an annual cocktail of the major strains. I think they just don't know yet. But if we could get down to influenza levels we could live with it.

No vaccine in the history of medicine has been shown to offer better protection against future infection than being infected with the virus itself.

Studies are indicating that Covid19 antibodies, primary indicators of the body retaining an immunity to the virus after infection, only last between 45 to 90 days among recovering Covid19 patients.

So unless they somehow have created a vaccine that defies all prior experience in the field of immunology, the maximum effectiveness window you should expect is 90 days. With the minimum being 45 days, that means 60 days is the "happy medium" where they'd probably set the guideline for most people. (although some may be advised to get boosted more frequently than that, monthly maybe?)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on July 31, 2020, 07:31:34 AM
Bolsonaro: "mold on the lungs" (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro-idUSKCN24V3SH?taid=5f238234cb760200014b9623&utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on July 31, 2020, 01:41:43 PM
"studies" so authoritative. Could you cite one?

Immunity to the coronavirus remains a mystery.  (https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/11/coronavirus-immunity-vaccine-development/)

How Long Does COVID-19 Immunity Last?
A new study from King’s College London inspired a raft of headlines suggesting that immunity might vanish in months. The truth is a lot more complicated—and, thankfully, less dire. (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/could-covid-19-immunity-really-disappear-months/614377/)

Quote
“I was definitely very worried when I saw the headlines,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology. “But then I looked at the data. And actually, looking at the data, I feel okay about it.”

Quote
Second, the virologist Shane Crotty told me that while the decline in antibodies was troubling, it was hardly catastrophic. “It’s not unusual to have fading antibody response after several months,” he said. “The drop-off isn’t that surprising. When you look at something like the smallpox vaccine, you see the antibody response is down about 75 percent after six months. But that’s a vaccine that works for decades. We need a study like this to look at COVID patients six months after infection to really know what we’re dealing with.” It’s been six months since the first American COVID-19 patient went to the hospital. Those studies will surely come.

Quote
Third, low levels of antibodies can still be enough to knock out COVID-19, because they can prime a larger immune response some time later. “It’s possible that previously-infected people could utilize [immunological memory] responses to produce new antibodies in case they are exposed to SARS-CoV-2 again,” Pamela Bjorkman, a biochemist at the California Institute of Technology, wrote in an email. “So I would not conclude yet that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 are not protected from another infection.”

But the elephant in the room is, even if immunity only lasts 3 months, it would massively arrest active cases, you know, the way responsible countries have done with masks and shutdowns.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDeamon on July 31, 2020, 05:13:38 PM
But the elephant in the room is, even if immunity only lasts 3 months, it would massively arrest active cases, you know, the way responsible countries have done with masks and shutdowns.

Oh, like the measles in the United States even with something like 80% of the population vaccinated against it at present? Something that was once eradicated within out borders but has now returned(although the covid19 stuff should have helped put a hard stop on that once more), and proven hard to eradicate because people refuse to get that vaccine despite it's long history of safe use?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on July 31, 2020, 07:21:05 PM
It's impossible to say for sure, but anti-vaxers have lost a lot of their sway, not just since COVID-19, but in the year before.

We may be pleasantly surprised by the eventual rate of vaccination.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 03, 2020, 05:41:23 PM
Quote
At least 41 passengers and crew on a Norwegian cruise ship have tested positive for Covid-19, officials say.

Hundreds more passengers who travelled on the MS Roald Amundsen are in quarantine and awaiting test results, the company that owns the ship said.

The ship, which belongs to the Norwegian firm Hurtigruten, docked in the port of Tromso in northern Norway on Friday.

Way to go! I know cruise ships often allow gambling, but the stakes seem higher than usual.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DJQuag on August 03, 2020, 08:50:18 PM
Didn't even realise cruise ships were still a thing, guess I had assumed they were all shut down.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 03, 2020, 09:29:09 PM
article (https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article244684697.html)

Certain European countries are allowing cruises, some without any port stops.

Quote
TUI Cruises, partially owned by Royal Caribbean Group, canceled its July 31 German-based cruise to nowhere on its Mein Schiff 1 ship when it could not get enough crew to Germany to operate the ship following positive tests of five newly arrived crew members.

A passenger on French cruise company Ponant’s Paul Gauguin cruise ship tested positive for the virus Sunday and the ship’s passengers and crew are now quarantined on board in Tahiti awaiting test results.

Needless to say, not going too good.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 05, 2020, 01:28:17 PM
Quote
Stay-at-home orders are now in place in Manila and four surrounding provinces on the island of Luzon for two weeks.

The country only just emerged from one of the strictest lockdowns in June.

But hospitals have been struggling to cope with a five-fold rise in confirmed infections, now surging past 100,000.

The lockdown means a return to stay-at-home orders except for going out to buy essential goods or exercising outdoors. Public transport has also been suspended and domestic flights are grounded, while restaurants are restricted to takeaways.

The new lockdown came after 80 medical associations on Saturday called on President Rodrigo Duterte to toughen restrictions in a bid to slow the spread of the virus.

On Sunday the Philippines announced a record 5,032 new infections. In some areas hospitals are reported to have been forced to turn away soaring numbers of patients.

Doctors hope the reinstated restrictions will now give medical workers more time to deal with the spike in cases.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DJQuag on August 07, 2020, 04:04:12 AM
https://youtu.be/wZQkBHysrig

Lol. In summation, put a *censored*ing mask on.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on August 07, 2020, 01:16:22 PM
Just because we all need this... presumably, she is working on the swine flu and not COVID-19, but still: Mama Boar steals laptop to assist with research (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53692475)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 07, 2020, 02:04:53 PM
https://youtu.be/wZQkBHysrig

Lol. In summation, put a *censored*ing mask on.

Kind of loses his power wearing his mask on his elbow.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DJQuag on August 07, 2020, 02:57:09 PM
https://youtu.be/wZQkBHysrig

Lol. In summation, put a *censored*ing mask on.

Kind of loses his power wearing his mask on his elbow.

That was almost certainly on purpose. The guy's whole deal is making videos where he pretends to be a news reporter who goes on wild rants to his producer when the camera cuts off. While the character makes good points he's foul mouthed and not a great person. Him ranting about wearing a mask while not wearing a mask is just part of the humour.

If you have  fifteen minutes watch his critique on cancel culture here.

https://youtu.be/Lvm3xeO1lA0

It's spot on and absolutely hilarious.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 07, 2020, 03:40:01 PM
I see. He's not my cup of coffee.  ;)
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 18, 2020, 01:22:00 PM
Quote
France is to make face masks compulsory in most workplaces as it grapples with a resurgence in coronavirus cases.

The new rule is likely to apply to all shared spaces in offices and factories where there is more than one employee present.

The measure is set to begin on 1 September. Individual offices will be exempt.

France has seen a sharp rise in coronavirus cases since July and masks are already widely used.

Its average number of new cases over seven days is now well above 2,000, double what it was at the start of the month.

About 220,000 people have now been infected and more than 30,000 have died.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 19, 2020, 12:27:10 PM
Brazil by official numbers is now outpacing the US in raw numbers. Yesterday they had more new cases and more deaths.

Meanwhile in Spain, proud owner of the sharpest rise in Europe after the initial spike:

Quote
Crowds gathered in the Spanish capital over the weekend to protest an expanded requirement for them to wear protective masks in public as the government tries to combat a sudden resurgence of coronavirus infections.

Defying the law by going without masks, people gathered Sunday in Madrid's Plaza de Colón. Police said they would normally fine the maskless protesters, but were overwhelmed by their sheer numbers, according to El País.

In a country that has witnessed more than 28,600 deaths since the start of the pandemic, some carried signs reading "The virus does not exist" and "Masks kill."

Among the speakers at the rally was anti-vaccination activist Josep Pàmies, who told people to spread the word in their towns and neighborhoods that the coronavirus is not dangerous.

Others chanted, "What kills is 5G," a reference to a conspiracy theory linking the coronavirus to the latest cellphone technology.

Poet and photographer Ouka Leele told demonstrators: "We can't live like zombies with masks on in the streets."

I don't know if it is comforting or alarming that Americans are not uniquely stupid about these things.

Edited to add: Zombies?? Has that woman ever seen a Zombie movie? Does he mean that masks give you a taste for human flesh? Or that they make you shamble? Or make that weird throaty hissing sound?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on August 19, 2020, 01:10:41 PM
Maybe she meant fast zombies...
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 19, 2020, 01:16:37 PM
Maybe she meant fast zombies...

28 days later zombies? I mean, I know they run with the bulls in Pamplona, but you apparently can't run with a mask on or you will pass out and die from your own toxins, right?
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DJQuag on August 20, 2020, 04:58:58 AM
Maybe she meant fast zombies...

28 days later zombies? I mean, I know they run with the bulls in Pamplona, but you apparently can't run with a mask on or you will pass out and die from your own toxins, right?

A nitpick. To be a zombie you have to be dead. In 28 Day Later the people had a virus that made them homicidally angry and resistant to pain but they were still living and breathing. It even showed them dying of thirst/hunger at the end of the film.

/Pendantry.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on August 20, 2020, 09:30:53 AM
I think any zombie story line, if allowed to reach its 'proper' conclusion, would have the zombies 'dying' from thirst/starvation/entropy.  That would be the boring and least metaphorical part of the story, though...
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 20, 2020, 01:18:30 PM
Any zombie story line requires the supernatural, except in pseudo zombies like 28 days. There is no energy conversion that can occur when some zombies don't even have digestive tracts any more. It implies some kind of psychic rather than physiological energy, which is maybe why they eat brains. Anyway, none of those things happen from breathing through cloth.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: DonaldD on August 23, 2020, 07:34:49 PM
Interesting ... a 1500-person, controlled experiment of coronavirus spread in a large indoor venue: Leipzig, Germany (https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/germany-coronavirus-tim-bendzko-concert-wellness-scn-grm-intl/index.html).

Quote
Researchers in the German city of Leipzig staged a 1,500-person experimental indoor concert on Saturday to better understand how Covid-19 spreads at big, busy events, and how to prevent it.

At the gig, which featured a live performance from musician Tim Bendzko, fans were given respiratory face masks, fluorescent hand gel and electronic "contact trackers" -- small transmitters that determine the contact rates and contact distances of the individual experiment participants.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on August 26, 2020, 10:26:52 PM
Quote
Days before schools are set to open in Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said on Wednesday that it would be “clearly nonsensical” for students to wear face masks in class. “You can’t teach with face coverings, you can’t expect people to learn with face coverings. The most important thing is just to wash your hands,” Mr. Johnson said. In areas where local lockdowns are in place, students and staff members will be required to wear masks in communal areas with the exception of classrooms, where the government said “protective measures already mean the risks are lower.”
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on September 01, 2020, 11:44:58 AM
Two weeks after my last Spain update, we have this.

Quote
Over the last month, shops, beaches, bars and restaurants have all reopened, and the country began to welcome tourists again too. But recently the number of new cases has soared, and authorities have warned that a new nationwide lockdown could be implemented if this trend continues.

The majority of Spain’s regional authorities have reimposed requirements to wear face coverings at all times outdoors. In Catalonia, the regional government also urged its nearly three million residents to stay indoors as the area reported a surge of new cases.

Yeah, once again proving that letting things fly, even when you have flattened the curve to only a few hundred cases, works exactly like you would expect. Meanwhile, there is reason to believe the numbers are being cooked to make it look better.

Quote
Since late April, the tally of confirmed cases includes data obtained from PCR diagnostic tests only, which caused a drop in the number of known infections, from around 220,000 to just over 200,000. In late May, Spain announced yet another way of collecting data, by counting a death based on when it occurred instead of when authorities were notified. As a result, the country’s death toll saw a drop of around 2,000 deaths.

Confused? Many people and news outlets have been too. Although authorities have argued that the new data collection system provides a better picture of the pandemic, Spanish news media have reported “incomprehensible figures” and the “thousands of casualties that suddenly disappeared from the series.”

Spain, like most countries, is only counting fatalities of those who have tested positive for coronavirus. The Madrid region and Catalonia, the country’s worst hit areas, have reported “confirmed or suspected” coronavirus deaths provided by funeral homes in daily updates, but those updated numbers are not included in the daily death tolls published by Spain’s health ministry. The regional numbers there include deaths in nursing homes and suggest that the death toll is far higher than reported so far.

Source: NYT
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: fizz on September 04, 2020, 03:50:24 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/04/silvio-berlusconi-admitted-milan-hospital-coronavirus-italy (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/04/silvio-berlusconi-admitted-milan-hospital-coronavirus-italy)

The amusing thing about Briatore and Berlusconi getting infected is that they have been very vocal about COVID19 countermeasures being a useless nuisance. In particular, the Zangrillo doctor named in the article is Berlusconi's personal doctor, and the "scientific" support of the parties claiming all this virus stuff is not a big deal.
Just few hours ago he was releasing a statement about how maybe he used the wrong tone when he said that the virus was dead and the pandemic over, and so was misunderstood...

Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on September 10, 2020, 01:50:14 PM
Quote
Israel's cabinet is to consider whether to impose a nationwide lockdown, as the country struggles to halt a steep rise in coronavirus infections.
The health ministry reported 3,904 new cases on Wednesday, a new daily record that brought the total to 142,582. The death toll also rose by 11 to 1,054.
Title: Re: covid-19 outside the US
Post by: TheDrake on October 07, 2020, 08:43:46 AM
Quote
Paris will shut all bars completely from Tuesday after the French government raised the city's coronavirus alert to maximum following a period of high infection rates.

Bars, gyms and swimming pools will all be closed for two weeks in a bid to curb the spread of the virus, the city's police chief said.

But restaurants will remain open if strict hygiene rules are in place.

On Sunday France reported 12,565 cases of Covid-19.

"These are braking measures because the epidemic is moving too fast," police chief Didier Lallement said during a press conference on Monday.

"We have to slow it down so that our health system is not overwhelmed," he added.

France's maximum alert level comes into force when the infection rate in a locality exceeds 250 infections per 100,000 people and at least 30% of intensive care beds are reserved for Covid-19 patients.

More recently:

Quote
Covid-19 patients are taking up more than 40% of intensive care beds in the Paris region, regional health officials say