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General Category => General Comments => Topic started by: Greg Davidson on October 12, 2020, 12:30:46 AM

Title: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Greg Davidson on October 12, 2020, 12:30:46 AM
Biden's large lead has been remarkably stable, except for recent growth to about 10%. Looks like almost 350 electoral college votes for Biden/Harris, less than 200 for Trump/Pence. Unlike 2016, Biden's lead is above 50% nationally, and of the small number of undecided voters, most of them are likely to go for the challenger over the incumbent.

I predict there will be considerable attempts to make excuses after the loss. Like the three million imaginary illegal voters that Trump used to explain his loss of the popular vote even as he won the electoral college in 2016.

So I'd like some predictions from those of you who are going to be trying out excuses in mid-to-late November. When you make accusations about cheating, do you predict that there will be an equal amount of cheating in states with Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, or will your theory of cheating be based on only states where Democrats are in charge? Will you predict that the results will favor Biden more than the pre-election polling in states (like California) where every voter is sent a ballot?

My prediction is that the votes for Biden and Trump will be similar to the polling results, with a slight Biden tilt as the late deciders go against the incumbent.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 12, 2020, 02:17:24 AM
My own expectation is regardless of who "wins" in November, the other side is going to accuse the other side of cheating. Biden has already said as much, that the only way he can lose is through "chicanery." Which I guess means he's now announced the only electoral outcome he will now accept is victory on his part.

While also declaring the American People "don't need to know" what his intentions may be regarding the Supreme Court. ::)

Which actually leaves Trump's "we'll see" seeming downright mild by comparison.

If Trump loses, the only thing to be said about that is that Trump has nobody to blame but himself, all of the leading indicators say he should have otherwise won this cycle. I could fully understand why people wouldn't want to vote for him.

Of course, the wild card in the mix is stuff that currently hasn't yet come to our attention(re: potential fraud). I certainly expect there is going to be all kinds of reporting about "balloting irregularities" which impact both sides of the political spectrum, with likewise biased reporting about such findings.

A Biden landslide is omnious for other reasons should it happen, as they may take that for "a mandate" much like Obama did(unless he's given a Republican Senate to fight with at the very least), and based on some of the things they promised during the Primaries, that could very well mean Civil War before 2022.

Not that a Trump win is much more cheery, as that could mean Civil War by January.

But I think the "shy voter" scenario is going to be in play in spades, and it is actually much worse than current attempts to esitimate it indicate. Which means Democrats are going to be crying all kinds of foul about the election results from in-person voting not matching up with their own polling results within anything close to the margin of error, unlike last time(2016).
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 12, 2020, 08:39:41 AM
The national polling will largely be correct, as it was in 2016 - and polling will likely be more accurate at a state level this time around due to better and more state level polls in swing states.

The biggest issue in 2016, especially at state level, were miscalculations, especially in local polls, in the differential of intent to vote for the two candidates; there was, in the end, no significant number of "shy voters" in the polls.  I expect pollsters will have been looking hard at this metric over the past 4 years to better predict turnout, but it remains an art.  My expectation is that the difference will be well within the margin of error, once all votes are counted.

However, I do predict that many votes will be tied up in litigation after election day - litigation initiated by both sides, but primarily by the Republicans as I expect there will be more for Republicans to gain by contesting votes.

As for who will win, and by how much?  Clearly, Biden is on his way to a big win BUT there are three weeks left - minds could still change between now and then.  That being said, Biden is polling better at this point than did Clinton in swing states: for example, his lead over Trump is 5% stronger in Florida than was Clinton at this same time, and about 2.5% stronger in Pennsylvania.  Those advantages over Clinton's head-to-head might be a bit inflated due to Trump's very bad 2 weeks, and I expect them to drop a bit now, but that still would give Biden a bigger lead than Clinton had at the same time (Clinton was actually polling ever so slightly behind Trump in Florida in early October.) I would put it at 330 electoral votes for Biden and slightly more than 200 for Trump if the election were held today.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 12, 2020, 09:10:25 AM
But I think the "shy voter" scenario is going to be in play in spades, and it is actually much worse than current attempts to esitimate it indicate. Which means Democrats are going to be crying all kinds of foul about the election results from in-person voting not matching up with their own polling results within anything close to the margin of error, unlike last time(2016).

Is the "shy voter" something played up on Fox? Just curious, I think most analyst believe that the Comey letter a few days before the election moved almost all the undecides to Trump in the last days before the election. I suppose if Fox played it up as a thing conservatives do then maybe it will be real in this election. But given the fact so many people at least have some form of their political identity out on Facebook, some type of social media, or just party voter registration I find it hard to believe there would be a significant number of "shy" voters except those in the most polarized parts of the country. Maybe a Trump supporter in Berkley would be shy, likewise a Biden supporter in Oklahoma. But I see no reason for a Trump supporter in rural Pennsylvania or Ohio to be "shy" about it.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 12, 2020, 10:46:02 AM
Is the "shy voter" something played up on Fox?

Bloomberg, right-wing news organization that it is known to be.  ::)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters

Quote
Some 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% independents said they would not give their true opinion, vs. 5.4% of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch LLC, a Queens, N.Y.-based company that conducts online market research and data collection for clients. Among the reasons they gave was that “it's dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint,” according to Leib Litman, the co-chief executive officer and chief research officer.

CloudResearch conducted the survey online but inquired about surveys that are conducted by phone. It first asked participants for their political preference, then asked how they felt about divulging their preference for president in a phone poll. Later, it asked whom they actually did support for president.

...

The question of whether "shy Trump” voters were undercounted in polls before the 2016 election was part of an exhaustive post-mortem published by the American Association for Public Opinion Research. “Some Trump voters who participated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters until after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters," the AAPOR study said, adding, "This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the so-called Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls.”
...
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 12, 2020, 12:34:21 PM
From the first line of that link: "A new online study finds that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question"

I hope you are taking this with a grain of salt...
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 12, 2020, 12:58:21 PM
Is the "shy voter" something played up on Fox?

Bloomberg, right-wing news organization that it is known to be.  ::)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-28/new-study-suggests-polls-are-missing-shy-trump-voters

Quote
Some 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% independents said they would not give their true opinion, vs. 5.4% of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch LLC, a Queens, N.Y.-based company that conducts online market research and data collection for clients. Among the reasons they gave was that “it's dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint,” according to Leib Litman, the co-chief executive officer and chief research officer.

CloudResearch conducted the survey online but inquired about surveys that are conducted by phone. It first asked participants for their political preference, then asked how they felt about divulging their preference for president in a phone poll. Later, it asked whom they actually did support for president.

Thanks for the link. One thing I didn't see explicitly is that the majority of the shy voters are actually going to break for Trump or lying about not supporting Trump. They gave one example of a response where a user said it was against liberal orthodoxy or something. But no hard data to show that the shy voters are overwhelmingly closeted Trump supporters.

A republican in a deep red state might feel social pressure to say they support Trump while a republican in California or New York might feel otherwise. I feel like any social political pressure to the point of lying to a pollster is unlikely to occur in the swing states. Because by definition you have at least 45% of people supporting Trump in those states. Maybe I'm wrong, the right wing news loop does produce some interesting mental states.

I think the biggest factor 4 years ago was the Comey letter. People who hadn't decided at that point then broke for Trump overwhelmingly. There are very few undecideds left this cycle.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 12, 2020, 01:17:51 PM
We'll just have to wait and see - when Trump releases the Comey letter again, whether that will put him over the top and garner him more votes than Clinton this time around...
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 12, 2020, 01:19:14 PM
From the first line of that link: "A new online study finds that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question"

I hope you are taking this with a grain of salt...

You did notice the blurb about the American Association for Public Opinion Research? Where their findings about 2016 also happened to match up with the online polling, where the only shift noted was in regards to independents.

As to the one being "an online poll." Yes, that does warrant a grain of salt, but not all online polls are created equal, as the methodology used is wildly variable between them.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 12, 2020, 02:41:47 PM
You did notice the blurb about the American Association for Public Opinion Research? Where their findings about 2016 also happened to match up with the online polling, where the only shift noted was in regards to independents.
Yes.  But it doesn't mean what you seem to think it means.

Quote
The question of whether "shy Trump” voters were undercounted in polls before the 2016 election was part of an exhaustive post-mortem published by the American Association for Public Opinion Research. “Some Trump voters who participated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters until after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters," the AAPOR study said, adding, "This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the so-called Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls.”

Typically, the AAPOR study found, "those who admit changing their minds more or less wash out, breaking about evenly between the Republican candidate and the Democratic candidate. " Not in 2016, though: People who changed their answers when called back after the election had voted for Trump by a 16-percentage-point margin.
The AAPOR study said evidence for a “Shy Trump" effect isn't conclusive. The authors hypothesized that if voters didn't want to tell a live interviewer that they supported Trump, you'd expect Trump to do worse in live-interview polls than in ones involving interactive voice response, which is less personal. In fact, Trump, didn't do worse in live-interview polls.
I highlighted the last sentence because it was important.

What the AAPOR study found is not inconsistent with something happening very late in the election cycle that could make up or change people minds (especially undecideds or barely decided).  Something like the Comey letter.  Given the consistency between interactive voice response and live interview polls, it tends to suggest something other than "shy" voters. 

<Shrug>

Time will tell.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: oldbrian on October 12, 2020, 03:07:54 PM
Quote
But I see no reason for a Trump supporter in rural Pennsylvania...(to be shy about it)

Good God, no.  If anything, it is the democrats who have to walk carefully around here.  My county tilts about 2:1 Republican, but counting the banners and yard signs would indicate more like 10:1
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Aris Katsaris on October 13, 2020, 12:55:14 AM
My own expectation is regardless of who "wins" in November, the other side is going to accuse the other side of cheating. Biden has already said as much, that the only way he can lose is through "chicanery." Which I guess means he's now announced the only electoral outcome he will now accept is victory on his part.

While also declaring the American People "don't need to know" what his intentions may be regarding the Supreme Court. ::)

Which actually leaves Trump's "we'll see" seeming downright mild by comparison.

Your memory is selective:
Back on September, it was Trump who said plainly: "We're not gonna lose this, except if they cheat"
https://www.the-sun.com/news/1537426/trump-lose-cheated-democrats-rally-virginia/
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/518407-trump-says-he-wants-beautiful-transition-but-must-be-an-honest-vote
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 17, 2020, 09:48:21 PM
So Michigan early voting is +6 Democrat against Republicans, even though early voting/mail in is supposed to strongly favor the Dems and current polling is suggesting it should be Biden +11?

Nate Silver is starting to make noises that would tend to suggest he's about to start debunking the idea of a "red mirage" saving Biden should Trump look like the winner on the 3rd. Early returns are D+31, but votes remaining to be cast are only D+17. So once the Trump voters turn up to vote in person, those mail-in votes yet to be counted may actually favor Trump.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 17, 2020, 10:42:47 PM
Quote
But I see no reason for a Trump supporter in rural Pennsylvania...(to be shy about it)

Good God, no.  If anything, it is the democrats who have to walk carefully around here.  My county tilts about 2:1 Republican, but counting the banners and yard signs would indicate more like 10:1

The reason there are shy Republican polling and voters is not for fear of being ostracized - it is fear of physical bullying, vandalism, and physical threats to homes and family. The reaction to rioting and looting is the Left's paradigm. the Right doesn't do that. It doesn't matter if there are fifteen out of thirty Democrats in an area - those fifteen will attack to injure. The Left pretends that Trump has never spoken out against White Supremacists, as if they are an equal threat to their own militant groups. There aren't very many of them, and most are harmless anyway. Biden says they come out of the woods carrying clubs and torches with veins throbbing - when no such thing has occurred. It is a false argument and even more, Trump has denounced them completely, and the Left knows it. Savannah Guthrie brought it up to get a rise out of Trump, knowing it was a false accusation. That is basically all they have.

The only polls proved accurate show Trump winning in a landslide. We will all need to wait forever for a conclusion - because the fix is in to delay the count until the Democrat vote counters can create enough vote-scamming to ask for recounts or new elections. We will see, but the plan is to take forever for answers.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 17, 2020, 10:43:17 PM
FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by 8 in Michigan.  I think that's been pretty static for a while, but there hasn't been a lot of quality state level polls yet.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 17, 2020, 10:50:47 PM
FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by 8 in Michigan.  I think that's been pretty static for a while, but there hasn't been a lot of quality state level polls yet.

Traglafar, one of the most accurate pollsters in 2016 and 2018 has Trump up 1 in Michigan. Trump up 4.5 in AZ, up 4.8 in FLA. Helmut Norpoth has Trump winning the election as a 91% certainty.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 18, 2020, 12:39:17 AM
FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by 8 in Michigan.  I think that's been pretty static for a while, but there hasn't been a lot of quality state level polls yet.

It was 11 earlier today.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Ouija Nightmare on October 18, 2020, 06:58:00 AM
Quote
But I see no reason for a Trump supporter in rural Pennsylvania...(to be shy about it)

Good God, no.  If anything, it is the democrats who have to walk carefully around here.  My county tilts about 2:1 Republican, but counting the banners and yard signs would indicate more like 10:1

The reason there are shy Republican polling and voters is not for fear of being ostracized - it is fear of physical bullying, vandalism, and physical threats to homes and family. The reaction to rioting and looting is the Left's paradigm. the Right doesn't do that. It doesn't matter if there are fifteen out of thirty Democrats in an area - those fifteen will attack to injure. The Left pretends that Trump has never spoken out against White Supremacists, as if they are an equal threat to their own militant groups. There aren't very many of them, and most are harmless anyway. Biden says they come out of the woods carrying clubs and torches with veins throbbing - when no such thing has occurred. It is a false argument and even more, Trump has denounced them completely, and the Left knows it. Savannah Guthrie brought it up to get a rise out of Trump, knowing it was a false accusation. That is basically all they have.

The only polls proved accurate show Trump winning in a landslide. We will all need to wait forever for a conclusion - because the fix is in to delay the count until the Democrat vote counters can create enough vote-scamming to ask for recounts or new elections. We will see, but the plan is to take forever for answers.

Are you actually as insane as this post makes you appear to be?

Ouija Nightmare: Please see your email. -OrneryMod

Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Wayward Son on October 18, 2020, 09:15:02 PM
FiveThirtyEight has Biden up by 8 in Michigan.  I think that's been pretty static for a while, but there hasn't been a lot of quality state level polls yet.

Electoral Vote.com also has him up by 8 points (https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Graphs/michigan.html), with about 54% of the predicted vote.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Wayward Son on October 18, 2020, 09:17:44 PM
FiveThirtyEight's overall Presidential forecast (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/) has Trump winning in only 12 percent of the scenarios, down from 13 yesterday.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 18, 2020, 09:38:11 PM
Meanwhile there is reporting that the Biden Campaign has an internal memo saying Trump is "neck and neck" in several key states. (NY Post)

So something very weird is going on here.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: noel c. on October 18, 2020, 09:51:18 PM
WS,

Hillary’s fourteen point advantage was not enough in 2016.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.detroitnews.com/amp/92791454

As I see it, Biden needs another eight points to be competitive, good luck with that.  ;D

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/18/us/trump-vs-biden

Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 18, 2020, 10:22:29 PM
Another oddity to point at:

Trump's favorability rating is about 6 points higher today than it was at this time 4 years ago. Don't confuse approval with favorability, they're different markers.

And I guess there was another poll where 47% of those polled thought their neighbors were Trump voters, compared to 36% for Biden.... That's quite the wild swing from Biden being up by 11 points in the national polls.

Of course, for early voting the registered Democrats seem to be turning up, and the Republicans seem to be strangely absent in many states(even against historical numbers), so there is another path to potential victory for Biden as that could point some kind of weird enthusiasm issue for Trump.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 18, 2020, 10:49:51 PM
According to FiveThirtyEight's polling average, as of October 17, 2016, Clinton was up 49.7% to 42.7% (https://web.archive.org/web/20161017165110/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) in the popular vote - as compared to Biden's current lead of 52.4% to 41.9%.  Biden's lead is still 3.6% ahead of Clinton's at the same time 4 years ago.  Plus, there is little chance that Comey will send a letter to Congress the week before the election this year... not to mention that there simply are far fewer available or undecided votes to be had (especially with all the advance polling).

As for Trump's enthusiasm deficit - it's not so strange.  4 years ago, he was an unknown, and it was easier to project people's hopes onto that blank canvas.  Today, Trump has to deal with his record.  Even the most partisan have to see that many people, mistaken though they might be, don't like his record.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on October 18, 2020, 11:05:00 PM
According to FiveThirtyEight's polling average, as of October 17, 2016, Clinton was up 49.7% to 42.7% (https://web.archive.org/web/20161017165110/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/) in the popular vote - as compared to Biden's current lead of 52.4% to 41.9%.  Biden's lead is still 3.6%

Huh? How's that math work? 52.4 - 49.7 =2.7
By margin, it is 10.5 - 7 = 3.5
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: noel c. on October 18, 2020, 11:18:40 PM
When Donald starts doing math, look the other way.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 18, 2020, 11:23:14 PM
Huh? How's that math work? 52.4 - 49.7 =2.7
By margin, it is 10.5 - 7 = 3.5
The Biden/Trump differential is currently 10.6% on 538 - I expect the numbers  above (52.4 and 41.9) were rounded.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on October 19, 2020, 09:57:12 AM
Huh? How's that math work? 52.4 - 49.7 =2.7
By margin, it is 10.5 - 7 = 3.5
The Biden/Trump differential is currently 10.6% on 538 - I expect the numbers  above (52.4 and 41.9) were rounded.

None of your links demonstrates that the math came from somewhere else. In any event, I think it is not that significant. Nobody should waste their time talking about National polling numbers. It might just mean that a lot more Californians are now "likely voters" which doesn't make a dime of difference to the outcome.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 19, 2020, 10:13:01 AM
Huh? How's that math work? 52.4 - 49.7 =2.7
By margin, it is 10.5 - 7 = 3.5
The Biden/Trump differential is currently 10.6% on 538 - I expect the numbers  above (52.4 and 41.9) were rounded.

None of your links demonstrates that the math came from somewhere else. In any event, I think it is not that significant. Nobody should waste their time talking about National polling numbers. It might just mean that a lot more Californians are now "likely voters" which doesn't make a dime of difference to the outcome.

That I'll agree with. For Trump to win the polls have to be off by at least 6% in Pennsylvania and the northern midwest. If Trump wins all the toss up states; Iowa, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona he still loses if he can't pick off Penn, Wisconsin or Minnesota.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on October 19, 2020, 10:26:51 AM
Well, Biden in the most recent reputable PA polls (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/) (B+ or better) range from +3 to +13, which seems like a fair bit of uncertainty, although the +3 is an outlier. Clinton had been widely showing margins of +5 to +12 in mid October (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/)

Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 19, 2020, 12:08:21 PM
Well, Biden in the most recent reputable PA polls (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/pennsylvania/) (B+ or better) range from +3 to +13, which seems like a fair bit of uncertainty, although the +3 is an outlier. Clinton had been widely showing margins of +5 to +12 in mid October (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/)

There's a lot fewer undecideds this year. Clinton was almost never above 50% in the polls. Biden is at 52.8% (using 538's averaging of the polls). That's an important distinction, because of the Comey letter right before the election and potentially other reasons almost all the undecideds broke for Trump.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 19, 2020, 12:09:40 PM
You also miss the effect the Hunter laptop will do to Biden when the MSM is faced to admit it's legitimacy, Besides that, there is so much else out there that cannot be hidden away. The most effective Trump commercials are simply showing Biden lying to us. That one with him bullying a reporter saying he was so much smarter than him, and then "proved it" by saying he was the top award-winning student with a full-paid scholarship, top of the class honors, and three degrees. Then the ad cuts to MSM reporters saying he was on a half-scholarship, was in the bottom of the class, no honors, and only one degree. Biden said he would put his brilliance up against that bullied reporter. He did and failed.

When a person lies, it defines him. Then there are the proven plagiarism. It is a theme, not minor coincidences.

There is also his dementia. Everyone knows he is unable to hold his own without help. He is absolutely the worst candidate of all time.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 19, 2020, 12:12:43 PM
What will destroy the Democrat Party is their unbridled support for Biden - no matter what.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 19, 2020, 12:52:09 PM
Only the Murdoch properties are paying any attention to the Giuliani/Russian smear attempts at this point, and the true believers don't need any more convincing.  Fool me once...  If you need any evidence, it's been several days since the 'scandal' broke, and Biden's support has only gained a percentage point - the lead now sits at 10.7% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/)

What will destroy the Democrat Party is their unbridled support for Biden - no matter what.
What are you smoking?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 19, 2020, 01:06:19 PM
Only the Murdoch properties are paying any attention to the Giuliani/Russian smear attempts at this point, and the true believers don't need any more convincing.  Fool me once...  If you need any evidence, it's been several days since the 'scandal' broke, and Biden's support has only gained a percentage point - the lead now sits at 10.7% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/)

What will destroy the Democrat Party is their unbridled support for Biden - no matter what.
What are you smoking?

On the contrary, Biden is proved corrupt by that undisputed truthful laptop info. You cannot deny it by saying the deceived are oblivious to it. If you haven't noticed, the Biden camp has not denied the laptop is Hunter's. The documentation is absolute, and Radcliffe has stated clearly that in no way is it a smear or disinformation by anyone except Hunter Biden, himself. Specifically, Russia is not a part of this at all. Except in liars' minds.

...And how is the average Democrat on the street supposed to have a clue what to think when the MSM and Social Media refuses to even divulge it? You really need to clean up your act and stop deflecting.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 19, 2020, 02:35:15 PM
On the contrary, Biden is proved corrupt by that undisputed truthful laptop info. You cannot deny it by saying the deceived are oblivious to it. If you haven't noticed, the Biden camp has not denied the laptop is Hunter's.

You have an interesting definition of "undisputed."
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Wayward Son on October 19, 2020, 04:41:56 PM
Quote
The most effective Trump commercials are simply showing Biden lying to us. That one with him bullying a reporter saying he was so much smarter than him, and then "proved it" by saying he was the top award-winning student with a full-paid scholarship, top of the class honors, and three degrees. Then the ad cuts to MSM reporters saying he was on a half-scholarship, was in the bottom of the class, no honors, and only one degree. Biden said he would put his brilliance up against that bullied reporter. He did and failed.

Yep, I can see all these undecided voters immediately turning to Trump, who has never bullied or denigrated a reporter, or lied about his past accomplishments, in the last 3 3/4 years he's been in office.

Or is it the last 3 3/4 months?

The last 3 3/4 days?

Hours?

I can't remember now.  ;D
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 19, 2020, 05:43:22 PM
Because it's fun to play with the way back machine, here is some more context from 2016: according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average (https://web.archive.org/web/20161130190259/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/), on the Monday, 2 weeks before election day in 2016 (October 24) Clinton's lead in the popular vote was 6.3%.  Today, Monday October 19, 2020, also 2 weeks before election day, again according to the 538 average, Biden's lead is 10.7% nationally.

In 2016, the Comey letter was about to drop (October 28 in 2016, the equivalent of 4 days from now) and Clinton's lead was about to crater.  It will be interesting to see if there is any significant movement in the polls over the next week.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 19, 2020, 06:29:05 PM
Because it's fun to play with the way back machine, here is some more context from 2016: according to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average (https://web.archive.org/web/20161130190259/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/), on the Monday, 2 weeks before election day in 2016 (October 24) Clinton's lead in the popular vote was 6.3%.  Today, Monday October 19, 2020, also 2 weeks before election day, again according to the 538 average, Biden's lead is 10.7% nationally.

In 2016, the Comey letter was about to drop (October 28 in 2016, the equivalent of 4 days from now) and Clinton's lead was about to crater.  It will be interesting to see if there is any significant movement in the polls over the next week.

Its also important to note that Clinton's polling was consistently below 50%. With a couple people on the right polling about 5%. So the undecideds breaking for Trump and people deciding not to vote 3rd party after all shift things a lot harder towards Trump. Those same dynamics aren't in play this time. Biden is polling at 52.5% and Trump at 41.8%. So even if the full 5.7% of undecideds or third parties go to Trump he still loses.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Wayward Son on October 19, 2020, 06:43:21 PM
The Comey letter cost Hillary 3 percentage points.  Nationally, she lost with about 2 percentage more votes. :)

So the polls were accurate (as much as you could expect) at the time.  The electoral college just happen to break Trump's way.

One should also note that, from Donald's link, that Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning back then--a bit better than 1 in 4.  And anyone who played D&D would know that 1 in 4 ain't bad odds.

Currently, FiveThirtyEight gives the Donald about 1 in 11 odds of winning.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 19, 2020, 09:30:12 PM
...You have an interesting definition of "undisputed."

You mean with the fact that the Biden legal team has not disputed the laptop is Hunter's. ...Or that any emails are not his and not edited? ...Or maybe that Schiffs's own intelligence gatherers said he is not reporting what they told him? ...Or maybe that Biden is already being written off by the DNC?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 19, 2020, 09:39:23 PM
The Comey letter cost Hillary 3 percentage points.  Nationally, she lost with about 2 percentage more votes. :)

So the polls were accurate (as much as you could expect) at the time.  The electoral college just happen to break Trump's way.

One should also note that, from Donald's link, that Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning back then--a bit better than 1 in 4.

No, the polls were never accurate. They predicted a Blue Wall that Trump could never get past. Hillary was just a bad candidate. The Electoral College was the target of Trump's candidacy. The Democrats were just clueless. Also don't forget, the polls changed right before the 2016 elections to make it appear closer than what they had been predicting. The pollsters were shills for Democrats - but they didn't want to appear at the end as bad as they were presenting themselves, to ensure future work. They are still over-sampling Democrats and unlikely voters with no caveats. The polls that were accurate last time all favor Trump. They say he has a 91% probability of winning in a landslide.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 19, 2020, 09:44:24 PM
I'll still stand by on I'm not expecting anything. I suspect there is a "shy voter" effect in play making the polls very unreliable and that people are misleading the pollsters in significant numbers.

I would be shocked if Trump wins the popular vote, but unsurprised if he wins the Electoral College.

I would also be unsurprised to see Biden win the Electoral College, because as I said, I don't think the polls are reliable this year for a list of reasons which only has shy voters as the top of the list. (Sampling method, and other factors play in as well)

Although I might stock up on popcorn, as stuff I'm hearing indicates we can expect left-wing riots after the November election regardless of if Trump wins or not, and that some of those riots will continue even after Trump leaves office should he lose. January is going to be amusing to say the least.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 19, 2020, 10:07:10 PM
No, the polls were never accurate.

FiveThirtyEight had Clinton up by 3.6% in its final average before the election (https://web.archive.org/web/20161130190259/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/).

The final vote tally had Clinton up by 2.1% (https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html).

That was actually very accurate, and definitely within the margin of error.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 19, 2020, 11:30:38 PM
No, the polls were never accurate.

FiveThirtyEight had Clinton up by 3.6% in its final average before the election (https://web.archive.org/web/20161130190259/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/).

The final vote tally had Clinton up by 2.1% (https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/21/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final-count/index.html).

That was actually very accurate, and definitely within the margin of error.

Do you contest my statement that "the polls changed right before the 2016 elections to make it appear closer than what they had been predicting?"
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 19, 2020, 11:57:09 PM
https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Quote
Date   Republicans   Independents   Democrats
2020 Sep 14-28:   28   42   27
2018 Nov 1-11:    28   39   31
2016 Nov 1-6:      27   36   31

If you're sampling based on 2018 or 2016 voter numbers, it looks like you could be looking at a +4% sampling bias in favor of Democrats.

Of course, I guess there also is this(looks like they have a rounding error in the most recent poll:
Quote
Asked of independents) As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

Date     Republicans/Republican leaners   Democrats/Democratic leaners
2020 Sep 14-28:   44   47
2018 Nov 1-11:    43   46
2016 Nov 1-6:     43   46
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 20, 2020, 06:45:59 AM
Is it your contention that polling companies are unaware of voter affiliation, or that they are unaware of how voter affiliation has changed and do not take voter affiliation into consideration?  Because ascertaining voter affiliation is a part of almost every single poll.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 20, 2020, 01:50:34 PM
Early and absentee voting numbers are trending strongly for democrats. It could be Trump has discouraged his voters from voting that way, but a vote cast is one that can't be ruined by bad weather, long lines, family emergencies, or work on election day. But its creating a significant gap that Trump will need to come back from to win in key states.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 20, 2020, 02:00:11 PM
... or a likely explosion in the number of COVID-19 cases...
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 20, 2020, 03:16:08 PM
... or a likely explosion in the number of COVID-19 cases...

Was trying to figure out how to like/agree to a post with a :(.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 22, 2020, 11:14:42 AM
On the contrary, Biden is proved corrupt by that undisputed truthful laptop info. You cannot deny it by saying the deceived are oblivious to it. If you haven't noticed, the Biden camp has not denied the laptop is Hunter's.

You have an interesting definition of "undisputed."

You are  right, Let's agree to call it "proven." There is no legal dispute of any kind - only attempts to deceive a lá Adam Schiff.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: msquared on October 22, 2020, 11:37:26 AM
Proven to what standard?  Legal?  Well that is not true since no charges have been brought, no arrests have been made, no trials. May want to hold off on using terms that do not apply.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 22, 2020, 12:32:27 PM
Proven to what standard?  Legal?  Well that is not true since no charges have been brought, no arrests have been made, no trials. May want to hold off on using terms that do not apply.

Yes, legal standards. The chain of evidence on the hard drives are confirmed, so they are legally admissible as hard evidence. Tony Bobulinski gave sworn testimony which is also legal evidence that Joe Biden did meet with the eMailers, which proves Biden lied about his relationship with Hunter's business dealings. These are the starting points and the end points. There is no getting around them, except for Adam Schiff's strategy of outright lies in order to disinform. Since his own Intel providers have denied his statements, there is no there there.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Wayward Son on October 22, 2020, 12:41:09 PM
Of course, for there to be legal proceeding, some sort of crime would have had to occur.

What crime is it that either Biden is supposed to have committed?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 22, 2020, 12:43:30 PM
Of course, for there to be legal proceeding, some sort of crime would have had to occur.

What crime is it that either Biden is supposed to have committed?

The 2017 deal would be after Biden left office. And Biden has been explicit that no meeting took place in 2015. So unless the deal went through and Biden didn't report it on his taxes there doesn't seem to be any evidence of a crime. Just emails (assuming they are genuine) about potential business deals.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: msquared on October 22, 2020, 01:03:46 PM
Well no, just because it is admissible does not mean it proves anything.  Until there is a trial and a conviction it is just evidence that only one side has had a chance to look at.  You sure want to jump to conviction with out any of the normal middle steps.  We might as well just round Biden and Clinton and Obama and just toss them in jail with no other due process.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 22, 2020, 01:19:48 PM
Of course, for there to be legal proceeding, some sort of crime would have had to occur.

What crime is it that either Biden is supposed to have committed?

The 2017 deal would be after Biden left office. And Biden has been explicit that no meeting took place in 2015. So unless the deal went through and Biden didn't report it on his taxes there doesn't seem to be any evidence of a crime. Just emails (assuming they are genuine) about potential business deals.

The crime can be simply the quid pro quo from Joe to fire the prosecutor investigating his son who was giving him a cut of the graft. There are half a hundred rules against enriching oneself and ones' family by abuse of power. How can you pretend no crimes were committed? BTW, the Emails have been verified from both sides. The FBI is now tracking the actual funds as they moved through the system. Joe could save everyone a lot of effort by admitting his crimes and apologizing.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 22, 2020, 01:28:59 PM
Of course, for there to be legal proceeding, some sort of crime would have had to occur.

What crime is it that either Biden is supposed to have committed?

The 2017 deal would be after Biden left office. And Biden has been explicit that no meeting took place in 2015. So unless the deal went through and Biden didn't report it on his taxes there doesn't seem to be any evidence of a crime. Just emails (assuming they are genuine) about potential business deals.

The crime can be simply the quid pro quo from Joe to fire the prosecutor investigating his son who was giving him a cut of the graft.

The emails show nothing of the kind.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on October 22, 2020, 02:28:26 PM
As has been pointed out a nauseating amount of times, every nation in the Western world wanted that guy fired. The prosecutor was corrupt. It would have been far easier to bribe him directly than set up some convoluted scheme.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: msquared on October 22, 2020, 02:30:57 PM
George Soros likes a complicated scheme.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 22, 2020, 05:12:57 PM
As has been pointed out a nauseating amount of times, every nation in the Western world wanted that guy fired. The prosecutor was corrupt. It would have been far easier to bribe him directly than set up some convoluted scheme.

On the contrary. The prosecutor who replaced him was known to be crooked. Please explain how Biden had any authority to do what he did.

Quote
Biden has admitted on videotape he forced then-Ukraine President Poroshenko to fire Shokin in March 2016 by threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees. But Biden has steadfastly denied Shokin’s firing was due to the Burisma case. Instead, Biden said, he and other Western leaders believed Shokin was ineffective as a corruption fighter.

Shokin, however, has alleged in a court affidavit he was told he was fired because he refused to stand down his investigation of alleged corruption by Burisma and after he planned to call Hunter Biden as a witness to question him about millions of dollars in payments his American firm received from the Ukraine gas company.

Shokin has also disputed Democrats' claims he was fired because he was incompetent or corrupt, producing among other pieces of evidence a letter from the U.S. State Department in summer 2015 that praised his anti-corruption plan as Ukraine’s chief prosecutor.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Wayward Son on October 22, 2020, 05:30:53 PM
As has been pointed out a nauseating amount of times, every nation in the Western world wanted that guy fired. The prosecutor was corrupt. It would have been far easier to bribe him directly than set up some convoluted scheme.

On the contrary. The prosecutor who replaced him was known to be crooked. Please explain how Biden had any authority to do what he did.

Quote
Biden has admitted on videotape he forced then-Ukraine President Poroshenko to fire Shokin in March 2016 by threatening to withhold $1 billion in U.S. loan guarantees. But Biden has steadfastly denied Shokin’s firing was due to the Burisma case. Instead, Biden said, he and other Western leaders believed Shokin was ineffective as a corruption fighter.

Shokin, however, has alleged in a court affidavit he was told he was fired because he refused to stand down his investigation of alleged corruption by Burisma and after he planned to call Hunter Biden as a witness to question him about millions of dollars in payments his American firm received from the Ukraine gas company.

Shokin has also disputed Democrats' claims he was fired because he was incompetent or corrupt, producing among other pieces of evidence a letter from the U.S. State Department in summer 2015 that praised his anti-corruption plan as Ukraine’s chief prosecutor.

OMG!  You mean the guy that almost every Western nation wanted out because he was corrupt proved them all wrong, simply by filing a court affidavit!  And proved he wasn't corrupt by displaying an old letter from the State Department about his plan to fight corruption!  In one fell stroke of the pen, he disproved half of Europe!  Amazing!  ;D
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 22, 2020, 05:39:51 PM
At the risk of feeding it: The Irish Times (2016): EU hails sacking of Ukraine’s prosecutor Viktor Shokin (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/europe/eu-hails-sacking-of-ukraine-s-prosecutor-viktor-shokin-1.2591190).

It also seems like The Independent also agrees: Viktor Shokin: The inside story on Ukraine’s ‘very good’ prosecutor at centre of Trump scandal (https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/viktor-shokin-ukraine-prosecutor-trump-biden-hunter-joe-investigation-impeachment-a9147001.html)

The Financial Times, maybe? Envoys pushed to oust Ukraine prosecutor before Biden (https://www.ft.com/content/e1454ace-e61b-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc)
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 24, 2020, 06:44:30 PM
Is it your contention that polling companies are unaware of voter affiliation, or that they are unaware of how voter affiliation has changed and do not take voter affiliation into consideration?  Because ascertaining voter affiliation is a part of almost every single poll.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/23/electoral-map-is-very-weird-right-now/

Quote
You will be unsurprised to learn that, according to a poll released on Friday by the New York Times and Siena College, President Trump leads former vice president Joe Biden in Montana. Montana is almost definitionally red, part of the phalanx of Republican states that’s draped over the western Plains and Rocky Mountains.

You might be surprised, though, to learn the margin of Trump’s lead. It’s only seven points, which, if that margin were to hold until Election Day, would represent a 13-point swing away from Trump relative to his 2016 support.

...

This is one poll, of course. By now you’re likely savvy enough to know that its generally more useful to consider polling averages than individual polls. We took the most recent (as of writing) averages in each state, as compiled by FiveThirtyEight, and ordered the states by the current polling margin.

The results are striking.

...

But it doesn’t get less weird. Georgia, Iowa and Ohio — which Trump won in 2016 by five, nine and eight points, respectively — are the next three closest states. What’s more, Biden leads in the first two.

Notice where Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin land. In 2016, Trump’s narrow wins in those three states earned him the presidency. Now, Biden leads by at least six points in each. Arizona is closer than any of those three states. Alaska is closer.

We highlighted a particularly odd stretch of margins. South Carolina is closer than Michigan? Michigan is closer than Montana? Nebraska is closer than Minnesota? What is happening here?

What's funny is the author notes the irregularities, but decides to run with people have actually abandoned Trump in huge numbers everywhere, and doesn't consider the possibility that in an era where have have telephone scammers call them from phone numbers where Caller ID claims to the Federal Government numbers, wal-mart, and numerous other official widely known organizations... Would somehow be inclined to magically trust someone who cold-calls them and asks them who they're voting for, when one of the candidates has a large and (informally) organized group of people violently opposed to him.

Also where lawyers and paralegals are getting arrested in BLM riots(even trying to throw molotov's into occupied police cars), so in that vein "professional looking people" doing in-person polling can be viewed with deep and sincere suspicion too.

In which case, they may very well be dealing with voters lying to pollsters at rates sufficient to swing the poll numbers up to 10 points away from what the election results could be. (A 13 point swing in Montana? Really? Possible, Trump is repugnant, but that was a known factor for many voters in 2016)

We shall see come election day, I'm not holding my breath, but I'm certainly considering the possibility of laughing my ass off on election night if Trump "landslides" in states that Biden was supposed to carry.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 24, 2020, 08:56:09 PM
 https://www.npr.org/2020/10/23/927181809/man-arrested-in-n-c-had-plan-to-kill-joe-biden-feds-say (https://www.npr.org/2020/10/23/927181809/man-arrested-in-n-c-had-plan-to-kill-joe-biden-feds-say)

Quote
When officers arrived, they looked into the van's windows and saw an array of items: an AR-15 rifle, the box for a handgun, a canister of explosive material, and a box of ammunition, according to a court document. Police say they towed and searched the van, finding more than $500,000 in cash, drawings of swastikas and planes crashing into buildings, books on survival and bomb-making, and a half-dozen firearms.

...

Now the man has been indicted by a federal grand jury on child pornography charges. And federal agents presented evidence indicating Treisman had a fascination with mass shootings and terrorist attacks — and had plotted to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden.

First glance puts this guy in the crazy category, not politically aligned with either side per say. But he clearly had it out for Biden, not Trump. For all the talk on the right about violence from the left it’s plots against democratic politicians we’re seeing.

Also where the hell does a loser 19 year old get $500,000? The article doesn’t come back to that detail.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 25, 2020, 12:58:46 AM
I'd guess the half-million dollars will likely lead to answers about the rest.

Also I'd be wary on early initial reporting. Could still be "false flag" (knowing that having Nazi paraphernalia at hand would immediately point people towards the right-wing) but I'm more inclined to think it's a crazy nutcase. The half-million is really bizarre though.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 25, 2020, 11:31:45 AM
It looks like the White House has settled on a strategy of allowing the pandemic to rip through the population, shutting down borders with the rest of the world and hobbling the economy until the middle of next year:

Quote
Washington (CNN)White House chief of staff Mark Meadows said Sunday that the US is "not going to control" the coronavirus pandemic, as cases surge across the country and nearly 225,000 Americans have died from the virus.

"We are not going to control the pandemic. We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas," Meadows told CNN's Jake Tapper on "State of the Union."

Whether this is a winning strategy remains to be seen.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 25, 2020, 01:13:33 PM
Whether its a winning strategy or not, it's probably the only one that doesn't tear the country apart. Or are you not seeing the reports about Lockdown riots starting to appear in a lot of the western world?

Not even the European Safety Net is enough to get people to comply at this stage.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 25, 2020, 01:48:17 PM
Mask wearing is the number one failing of the USA right now.  It should be feasible for the president to convince large numbers of his followers to do so (as that is primarily where the resistance of masks is centred).

It was just last week (or two weeks ago?) that the CDC stated that more than 100,000 lives could be saved between now and February by just taking that one step.

Not trying to take that step is, frankly, criminal.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 25, 2020, 02:20:37 PM
It's the Sunday one week before election day, and a number of observations:
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 25, 2020, 03:47:53 PM
I'd just point out that practically every polling indicator traditionally used to help predict potential winners, except for "who are you voting for?", points to a Trump win.

Voter Registrations and party affiliation changes point to Trump.

A number of other prediction systems not linked to opinion polling also point to Trump.

The only other non-opinion based indicator that doesn't point to Trump would be in regards to the economy, except that's in the context of Covid19, and opinion polling showing people overwhelmingly thinking Trump is the better candidate in regards to the Economy.

Yet in the opinion polling when asked who they're voting for, they say "Biden."

So the opinion polling says one thing, but the underlying data says it actually is Trump. There is a very strong case to be made that people are lying about voting Biden in very large numbers.

Edit to add:
This also ignores the other matter that if some of the polling numbers being released are right, Biden is poised to win the election with numbers not seen since FDR won re-election in 1944, and that Trump would be seeing the worst numbers for a president up for re-election since Herbert Hoover in 1932, which is also the worst performance seen for an incumbent since reconstruction. Things are very fishy about what's going on with the opinion polling, either the pollsters are manipulating the results, or the people they're polling are lying in very large numbers.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: NobleHunter on October 25, 2020, 05:24:42 PM
So do any of the traditional indicators include a raging pandemic the administration has spectacularly failed at managing?

The fishy thing could be the once-in-century (one hopes) crisis we're in the middle of.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 25, 2020, 05:28:13 PM
The fishy thing could be the once-in-century (one hopes) crisis we're in the middle of.

Combined with a hopefully once in a century jackass of a president.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 25, 2020, 05:55:37 PM
The only other non-opinion based indicator that doesn't point to Trump would be in regards to the economy, except that's in the context of Covid19, and opinion polling showing people overwhelmingly thinking Trump is the better candidate in regards to the Economy.

Overwhelmingly? You're at least 2 months behind the times on that:Other non-polling metrics are fundraising, where large numbers of small Democratic donations are simply swamping Republicans' - to the tune of Biden having 4 times the war chest as does Trump at this point.  That certainly talks to Democrats' motivation this year, and actual intent to vote; the youth vote, which is significantly higher in early voting and which tends to skew progressive; the state of the economy - presidents get saddled with the economy in place at the time of the election, and like it or not, the USA is in a recession, with truly awful unemployment numbers; and then there is COVID-19, which is flaring up at the most inopportune time for Trump, who is generally seen as weak on the pandemic.

Then there is Trump's schedule, where, instead of expanding the electoral map, Trump has been defending states that he won previously (some easily).

I have to wonder, though: what is the rationale for believing the polls are that far off?  Pollsters get paid to be correct: once they've lost the trust of the people buying their product, that's the end of their business.  Even if you assume that the same limitations are in place today as existed 4 years ago (although pollsters have corrected a number of issues with state level polling - specifically, weighting based on population density metrics, as well as level of education) Biden is still 4% ahead of Clinton, and there is no Comey letter bringing Biden down.  So even if (and this is a big "if") Biden's numbers soften to the same extent as did Clintons, he will still have a likely 6% margin in the national vote.  Not to mention that Biden has a favourability advantage over what Clinton had of more than 10%, whereas Trump's favourability hasn't really budged; Trump has a huge gap there.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 25, 2020, 11:46:53 PM
...what is the rationale for believing the polls are that far off?  Pollsters get paid to be correct: once they've lost the trust of the people buying their product, that's the end of their business.

The study of demographics is one thing. Selling political advice to buyers is another. Pollsters don't need to be accurate until right before an election, because they will just claim their earlier findings has recently changed. For very Machiavellian reasons, Pollsters get hired when their findings reinforce what their buyers want to hear. Each party has favorite pollsters. ...And they often disagree until election day, and then they fight to be "most relevant." Some have better records than others. For instance, The Trafalgar Group was the most accurate of all in 2018, and they have Trump winning. More scientific results come from academics who write algorithms to massage the data. Helmut Norpoth is the most accurate of that group, and he has Trump winning in a landslide.

This year is a mess to parse because of the Pandemic and new mail-in voting that are not absentee ballots. I don't see how tried and true algorithms can be as trusted as before, when the possibilities of delaying the vote count is so likely.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 26, 2020, 12:58:37 PM
The only other non-opinion based indicator that doesn't point to Trump would be in regards to the economy, except that's in the context of Covid19, and opinion polling showing people overwhelmingly thinking Trump is the better candidate in regards to the Economy.
One more non-opinion metric that does not favour Trump - Black voters are voting en masse.  Early polling numbers suggest they are extremely motivated to turn out this election.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 26, 2020, 01:36:51 PM
..One more non-opinion metric that does not favour Trump - Black voters are voting en masse.  Early polling numbers suggest they are extremely motivated to turn out this election.

Yes, and more and more of them are voting for Trump. When one is informed, one votes the pocket book.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: rightleft22 on October 26, 2020, 03:09:48 PM
..One more non-opinion metric that does not favour Trump - Black voters are voting en masse.  Early polling numbers suggest they are extremely motivated to turn out this election.

Yes, and more and more of them are voting for Trump. When one is informed, one votes the pocket book.

I've noted that sentiment among many living in Trumps world where everything is transnational, win lose, what's in it for me perspective on life and how we treat one another.
I think when I hear supports of Trump say things like Trump talks like me, that's what they mean. Its all about me, me, me. As long as I got mine that all that matters

But the comment explains alot about who you are and the failure of many to realized that the factors impacting ones pocket book are nuanced. Sometimes it true that the cost of being our brothers keeper is less then the cost of every man for themselves. But one must be capable of deep thought as it comes to cost.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 26, 2020, 11:07:05 PM
..One more non-opinion metric that does not favour Trump - Black voters are voting en masse.  Early polling numbers suggest they are extremely motivated to turn out this election.

Yes, and more and more of them are voting for Trump. When one is informed, one votes the pocket book.

I've noted that sentiment among many living in Trumps world where everything is transnational, win lose, what's in it for me perspective on life and how we treat one another.
I think when I hear supports of Trump say things like Trump talks like me, that's what they mean. Its all about me, me, me. As long as I got mine that all that matters

But the comment explains alot about who you are and the failure of many to realized that the factors impacting ones pocket book are nuanced. Sometimes it true that the cost of being our brothers keeper is less then the cost of every man for themselves. But one must be capable of deep thought as it comes to cost.

What an ill-informed response. Trump has metrics that people can use to understand his achievements. It's not me-me-me that people look at, but what he has done that works for them and their families. If the issues coincide with what people like, then he gets their vote.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 27, 2020, 10:26:51 AM
..One more non-opinion metric that does not favour Trump - Black voters are voting en masse.  Early polling numbers suggest they are extremely motivated to turn out this election.

Yes, and more and more of them are voting for Trump. When one is informed, one votes the pocket book.

And Biden is still probably getting around 85% of the Black voters. So a high turnout still hurts Trump.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 27, 2020, 04:33:30 PM
...Biden is still probably getting around 85% of the Black voters. So a high turnout still hurts Trump.

Because so few MSM outlets discuss the issues they need to understand to vote intelligently. When disinformation drives their belief systems, they get reinforced by their peers, family, and authoritarian leaders who believe the same disinformation. Even big-Tech is preventing info from reaching the people to make informed decisions.

As for higher numbers hurting Trump more, understand that the total number is higher - not just Blacks. The percentage who are coming over to Trump affects the total percentage.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on October 27, 2020, 04:39:35 PM
...Biden is still probably getting around 85% of the Black voters. So a high turnout still hurts Trump.

Because so few MSM outlets discuss the issues they need to understand to vote intelligently. When disinformation drives their belief systems, they get reinforced by their peers, family, and authoritarian leaders who believe the same disinformation. Even big-Tech is preventing info from reaching the people to make informed decisions.

So according to you the whole black community is just too stupid and misinformed to make an intelligent decision on who to vote for? Wow way to hit the intersection between condescension and racism. You're just like Jarad saying that if only the blacks wanted to succeed as much as the Great Leader wants them to succeed all would be well in the world.

Quote
As for higher numbers hurting Trump more, understand that the total number is higher - not just Blacks. The percentage who are coming over to Trump affects the total percentage.

Okay, you said higher african american turnout for Trump was good because he was getting a higher percentage of them. He is getting a higher percentage than in 2016, but only getting 15% of them means a really strong turnout from that group is a net negative for Trump.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 28, 2020, 09:31:29 PM
It's the Sunday one week before election day, and a number of observations:
  • Biden's current lead over Trump is 4% higher than Clinton's at the same point in 2016 (9.2% vs 5.2%)
5 and a bit days until the election... and Biden's lead over Trump is now 5.7% higher than Clinton's was at the same time in 2016 (Wednesday before the election)
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 28, 2020, 11:07:58 PM
...So according to you the whole black community is just too stupid and misinformed to make an intelligent decision on who to vote for? Wow way to hit the intersection between condescension and racism. You're just like Jarad saying that if only the blacks wanted to succeed as much as the Great Leader wants them to succeed all would be well in the world.

No. If people get all their info from liars and fake news, what do you expect them to do? The Democrats have spent decades shoving Blacks, Latinos, Jews, and other minorities into urban plantations, Barrios, Ghettos, and Hell holes that the Dems run. More Blacks are coming over to Trump because they are not limited or stupid. It scares the left.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 28, 2020, 11:15:37 PM
No. If people get all their info from liars and fake news, what do you expect them to do?
Have you ever seen a mirror?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on October 28, 2020, 11:39:07 PM
No. If people get all their info from liars and fake news, what do you expect them to do?
Have you ever seen a mirror?

I have. You evidently have the picture of Dorian Gray. Since I am utterly opposed to disinformation, and you hate it when I call you out on it, your insinuations that truth is untruth makes you the ultimate mind-numbed robot. Too bad, you could do so much good if you dropped your incorrect preconceptions.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on October 28, 2020, 11:59:55 PM
You get your news from rando bloggers, project Veritas, and qanon, lambert. You might have done some good, if you had been able to admit the slightest flaw in your orange god or the slightest good in any person with a (D) next to their name.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 31, 2020, 12:37:59 AM
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on October 31, 2020, 12:01:22 PM
Politics Podcast: There Just Isn’t Good Evidence That ‘Shy’ Trump Voters Exist (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-there-just-isnt-good-evidence-that-shy-trump-voters-exist/)
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on October 31, 2020, 03:23:55 PM
So on the shy Trump voters.... Who are they? Because it seems like they attach giant flags to their trucks, their yards, wear maga hats, and otherwise proudly announce it to the world at every turn. And yet an anonymous guy on the phone is going to make them meek?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on October 31, 2020, 04:36:47 PM
So on the shy Trump voters.... Who are they? Because it seems like they attach giant flags to their trucks, their yards, wear maga hats, and otherwise proudly announce it to the world at every turn. And yet an anonymous guy on the phone is going to make them meek?

from https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619

As it seems you ignored the pollsters:
Quote
Robert, I’m from the Midwest—Macomb County, Michigan, the home of the “Reagan Democrats,” which voted for Obama twice then flipped to Trump. When you go there, you see tons of Trump flags in people’s yards or waving from their trucks, reading, “Trump 2020: No More Bull*censored*.” It’s difficult for me to believe that people who are not shy about expressing their support for Trump in pretty much every other instance are shy when—

Cahaly
: But they’re different people! Think about what you just said, because that’s the reason why other Trump supporters are shy: The soccer mom doesn’t want to say she’s for Trump because she doesn’t want you to think she’s one of them. You just made my point for me! That’s exactly it! [Laughs]

This is probably a horrible example, but there are a lot more people who like professional wrestling than admit it. There are lots of fans who don’t want you to think they’re like the other people who like professional wrestling.

Kapteyn: The only point I would make is that it seems that over the years, increasingly, political preferences are localized. One county, one area is safe Democratic; the other area is Republican. If you’re in the minority—you’re a Democrat in a Republican area, or a Republican in a Democratic area—civil political discussions have sort of ceased to exist. People become careful in expressing their political preference if they feel that their whole neighborhood has a different opinion.

As to "lack of proof" that will be determined on election day.

It should be noted that between the two interviewed, only one predicted a possible Trump electoral win, but not high confidence. Mostly they suspect a lot of the national polls may be off by about 4 points give or take a point or so. With Biden's lead being such as it is, not enough to swing outcomes.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on October 31, 2020, 05:04:55 PM
Well, I didn't "ignore" it. Your quote is helpful - I only skimmed through the transcript, I'm not invested enough in the topic to read that much material. I just think it lacks credibility. The soccer Mom may or may not proudly state Trump support in a PTA meeting in a swing state, but we're talking about an anonymous person on a phone. It does not affect their social circles. And I find there are relatively few of such people - at least anecdotally, although in fairness I guess maybe I'd never know since that's the crux of the idea.

I'll allow that there are some aspects of psychology that mean that a person being polled may equate anonymous polling with a public declaration, and that Trump voters may be particularly handicapped at understanding such a nuance. I find it much more likely that potential Trump voters may be less likely to spend their time answering a pollster - I mean, what's in it for them?

Meanwhile, go have a look round at Trump supporters in Democrat strongholds - their flags don't seem any smaller.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 01, 2020, 01:53:15 AM
I'll allow that there are some aspects of psychology that mean that a person being polled may equate anonymous polling with a public declaration, and that Trump voters may be particularly handicapped at understanding such a nuance.

I hate to break it to you, but if they have your phone number, you're not anonymous.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on November 01, 2020, 05:59:49 AM
I'll allow that there are some aspects of psychology that mean that a person being polled may equate anonymous polling with a public declaration, and that Trump voters may be particularly handicapped at understanding such a nuance.

I hate to break it to you, but if they have your phone number, you're not anonymous.

You're right, but irrelevant. Unless you think somehow answering a pollster will get back to your friends, family, and neighbors? I guess I missed the website where you can find out that Karen from South Bend, Indiana, said she intended to vote for Trump?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Grant on November 01, 2020, 08:29:41 AM
Quote
Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?

Not this Republican.  I'm sure some will be shocked/surprised/dismayed.  They're pretty well sold on the "shy Trump Voter" concept. 

I don't expect the end results will mirror the polls exactly.  I expect the results to be 2-3% off, either way.  I can buy the story that polling is miscounting the numbers for Trump.  But it's just as possible that they're miscounting the number of really motivated Biden supporters.  One of the main reasons Trump won in 2016 was that he was running against Hillary Clinton.  Hatred for Clinton was a major factor.  This time around it seems to be hatred for Trump. 

So my prediction is that either Biden wins pretty big by winning Florida, NC, Georgia, and Arizona,  (I don't think he really has a chance in Texas), or it's a nail biter to the end where either candidate squeaks by, by whomever wins Pennsylvania.  That will certainly be a big opening for cheating accusations.  Will it top 2000?  If Trump wins, yes. 

I'm personally going to be pleased no matter who wins because I'll get to watch somebody completely flip out.  The Dems seem to be more confident, again, that they're going to win, so I suspect they would flip out more, and hence be more entertaining.   But I feel that the Trumpists will be rending their garments as best they can.  But in the end most of them will simply button down. 

The lesson that everybody should have learned by now, and which Trumpists seem to have forgotten in 2016, and which Democrats forgot in 2013, is that you never really win in American politics.  You simply take a temporary lead.  You never destroy your enemies. 

Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 01, 2020, 08:50:41 AM
Speaking of destroying your enemies...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-supporters-attacked-before-election-day-nyc-san-francisco
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Grant on November 01, 2020, 09:32:45 AM
Speaking of destroying your enemies...

Our best bet is to figure out a way to get all these people together in one place and let them kill each other in an orgy of political violence.  Kind of like a "Purge" for the politically invested class. 

It's a damn shame.  I hoped the Gen X slacker mentality and distaste for enthusiasm would save us. It seems it hasn't caught on for Millennials and Gen Z.  As much as they hate Boomers, they're just like them. 
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDrake on November 01, 2020, 09:58:23 AM
Quote
But when the Biden campaign bus drove to Austin, it was greeted by a blockade of pro-Trump demonstrators, leading to what one Texas House representative described as an escalation “well beyond safe limits.”

The cancelation comes amid national anxiety about voter intimidation, a tactic the Trump campaign has implicitly endorsed.

Historian Dr. Eric Cervini was driving to help with the Biden campaign stop when he filmed a line of pickup trucks along the highway, many of them flying Trump flags. The drivers were “waiting to ambush the Biden/Harris campaign bus as it traveled from San Antonio to Austin,” Cervini tweeted.

“These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road,” he alleged. “They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car.”

I'd love to see the law and order people jump on this as hard as when BLM blocks highways. Buy yourself just a little bit of credibility. I think you can do it, even knowing you probably won't.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 01, 2020, 10:14:09 AM
The final polls are trickling in now, so here is the last 2016 comparison from 538 and the wayback machine for 2 days prior to election day:
Chance of winning: Clinton 71%; Biden 90%: Biden up by +19% over Clinton's numbers
Lead in national polling average: Clinton 2.9%; Biden 8.6%: Biden up by +5.7% over Clinton

State Margins (in order of likely being the tipping point state)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 3.3%; Biden 4.9%;  Biden up by 1.6% over Clinton
Florida: Clinton (0.3%); Biden 1.9%; Biden up +2.2%
Arizona: Clinton (3.6%); Biden 3.4%; Biden up +7.0%
North Carolina: Clinton (0.2%); Biden 2.6%; Biden up +2.8%
Michigan: Clinton 3.9%; Biden 8.5%; Biden up +4.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton 4.8%; Biden 8.7%; Biden up +3.9%

Biden is not only doing better than Clinton was in all the likely tipping point states, he is also leading Trump even in those tipping point states where Trump was leading Clinton in 2016.  Even if a similar level of errors is encountered as was seen in 2016, and even if the errors again favour Trump, that would still not be sufficient for him to eke out a win this time.

Trump is either going to need a huge differential in the polls (one favouring himself) or a huge number of ballots being disqualified, or a combination of both.

Assuming that Michigan and Wisconsin are pretty much in the bag for Biden, Trump will need to run the table of Ohio, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, all states that he is currently trailing in, to win... and if Maine's 2nd district and Nebraska's 2nd district both go to Biden, Trump would also need Arizona.

Biden would just need to win 1 of those states.

Another difference from 2016 is that the tipping states this time around are not so closely correlated: Arizona and Pennsylvania are completely independent; North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, may see a weak correlation. There will need to be a significant number of different types of state-level polling errors this time around.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Grant on November 01, 2020, 10:46:34 AM

State Margins (in order of likely being the tipping point state)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 3.3%; Biden 4.9%;  Biden up by 1.6% over Clinton
Florida: Clinton (0.3%); Biden 1.9%; Biden up +2.2%
Arizona: Clinton (3.6%); Biden 3.4%; Biden up +7.0%
North Carolina: Clinton (0.2%); Biden 2.6%; Biden up +2.8%
Michigan: Clinton 3.9%; Biden 8.5%; Biden up +4.6%
Wisconsin: Clinton 4.8%; Biden 8.7%; Biden up +3.9%

Some things to remember...

So polls had Clinton by 3.3% over Trump in Pennsylvania.  Trump won by .72%.  Polling was off 4%.  Could they be making the same mistakes?  Biden might still win but it would be close. 

Polls had Clinton in Florida by .3%.  Trump won by 1.2%.  A difference of 1.5%.  This would again make it close but Biden would win if the mistake is the same magnitude. 

Trump won Arizona by 3.54%.  A difference of over 7% from polling!  That would give Trump Arizona.  Nobody should be surprised but of course someone might be. 

Polling was obviously wrong by a big order of magnitude in 2016, including in Michigan and Wisconsin.  Have they corrected? 

I think it's impossible to always correct perfectly because every election is different.  Polling is part sorcery and part math.  Who is going to get more of the vote out?  Sure, a bunch of Trump voters have left, but I bet he's gained plenty as well.  A bunch of people probably didn't vote for Trump in 2016 because they thought he was going to lose and didn't want to go down with him.  But he won.  L'Orange was their savior.  Sent by the Almighty to defeat to dirty socialists.  An orange flavored Kool-Aid Man bursting through the brick wall of the establishment.  It might even out. 

Nevertheless, the Dems have had 4 years of fire and brimstone to call upon to motivate Obama voters that stayed home in 2016 because they didn't like Clinton.  Will they get enough?  I think things still lean towards Biden.  I'm betting on it.  But it may be close.  I won't be incredulous if Trump wins.  A bet is a bet.  It has risk. 

If Trump does win, a good thing that could come out of it is the end of the polling industry.  Hopefully we can outlaw it and basically execute all pollsters.  I can see Nate Silver having to leave the country very quickly before he is torn to pieces, cooked, and eaten. 
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 01, 2020, 10:57:19 AM
Polls had Clinton in Florida by .3%.
No, Clinton was down on Sunday (https://web.archive.org/web/20161108213036if_/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/) by 0.3% not up. (0.3%) meant negative 0.3%

Quote
Trump won Arizona by 3.54%.  A difference of over 7% from polling! 
Again (brackets) mean negative.  Clinton was down by 3.6% on Sunday.  The polls hit Arizona almost on the nail (https://web.archive.org/web/20161108213036if_/http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/arizona/).
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 01, 2020, 11:02:30 AM
The only relevant errors were in Pennsylvania through the Midwest, where the weighting of rural/urban voters (also correlated with education levels) was not correctly done.

Pollsters identified that failure in the post-mortem of 2016, and those effects were completely absent in 2018.

They still might make a similar mistake (or one of similar magnitude) this time out, but there is no guarantee such an error will be in the same direction as in 2016.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Grant on November 01, 2020, 11:11:02 AM
No

I stand corrected.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 01, 2020, 11:22:48 AM
I'd love to see the law and order people jump on this as hard as when BLM blocks highways. Buy yourself just a little bit of credibility. I think you can do it, even knowing you probably won't.
I have zero expectation that this will happen.  I especially don't expect them to take the president to task for encouraging these attackers after the fact.  Normally, we would all be asking ourselves "how could the president of the United States be encouraging violence captured on video by his followers against his opponent?"

But of course - Trump.  That this has become accepted behaviour by the leader of your country just shows how far down the rat hole the country has fallen.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 01, 2020, 05:10:07 PM
Pollsters identified that failure in the post-mortem of 2016, and those effects were completely absent in 2018.

Well, that certainly explains how the Republican candidate for Governor won in Florida in despite the Democratic candidate having a polling lead outside the margin of error according to some claims.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 01, 2020, 05:56:22 PM
Pollsters identified that failure in the post-mortem of 2016, and those effects were completely absent in 2018.

Well, that certainly explains how the Republican candidate for Governor won in Florida in despite the Democratic candidate having a polling lead outside the margin of error according to some claims.

It's not clear what point you are trying to make here.  The failure they identified had to do with urban/rural weighting in the Midwest in 2016.  Florida was not in the Midwest, neither in 2016 nor in 2018.  Secondly, the Florida presidential vote count in 2016 closely matched the 538 predictions - so that "failure" did not exist in 2016.  Are you suggesting that the issue that had not existed in Florida in 2016 magically became an issue with the polls in Florida in 2018, and that it was the exact same issue as encountered in the Midwest in 2016?  If so, what evidence do you have for that?

Finally, I expect you are making some stronger claim - that the polling nationwide was really questionable in 2018 as well.  But 538 polls were consistent with the vast majority of the governorship races in 2018, with the one notable exception of Florida.  In fact, 538 forecast that the Democrats would hold 24 governorships (based on their mean prediction) after the 2018 election, whereas the Democrats actually only ended up with 23.  With 35 governorships up for election, and given that De Santis had a 1 in 5 chance, it was highly likely that at least one such outlier managed to beat the odds.  Are you really claiming that a failure rate of less than 3% is somehow evidence of your proposition?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 01, 2020, 06:58:32 PM
Speaking of destroying your enemies...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=212

Yup, crazed Trump driver tailgating the Biden-Harris Bus has a vehicle forcefully enter its lane and the crazed Trump driver gets blamed for "trying to run a Democratic Staffer off of the road" after said staffer made an illegal lane change?

What the MAGA's did there was retarded, but they (democrats) really need to check their narratives.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: kidv on November 03, 2020, 04:31:53 AM
Speaking of destroying your enemies...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=212

Yup, crazed Trump driver tailgating the Biden-Harris Bus has a vehicle forcefully enter its lane and the crazed Trump driver gets blamed for "trying to run a Democratic Staffer off of the road" after said staffer made an illegal lane change?

What the MAGA's did there was retarded, but they (democrats) really need to check their narratives.

Quotes are supposed to indicate actual quotations.

The Newsweek article linked by DonaldD and responded to by TheDeamon quotes historian Dr. Eric Cervini as saying, "“These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road,” he alleged. “They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car.”"

The Newsweek article also states, "A Biden campaign staffer told The Daily Beast that Trump supporters surrounded the bus on the highway and slowed down in front of it, attempting to stop it or run it off the road.  . . . Video from the highway shows trucks surrounding the bus, at one point colliding with an SUV."

(see the dailybeast link above)

The article does not claim that an SUV was attempted to be run off the road.  The article, quoting Cervini and a different person, a Biden staffer, only refers to attempts to stop the Biden bus or run it off the road.  The article states that trucks "[hit a staffer's car / at one point collid[ed] with an SUV]."

The post I respond to gives an unsourced quote of a "crazed Trump driver gets blamed for 'trying to run a Democratic Staffer off of the road' after said staffer made an illegal lane change?" (TheDeamon Ornery.org)

The quoted phrase "trying to run a Democratic staffer off of the road" does not appear anywhere in the Newsweek / Daily Beast article referred to and responded to.  The only reference in the Newsweek / Daily Beast article to the Democratic staffer appears to precisely state that the staffer's car was hit.  This appears to be a deliberate and factually correct statement by a professional journalist writing an article for an actual news outlet.

 In reviewing the video, and the video article linked by TheDeamon, I am gratified the Newsweek / Daily Beast article did not say more than a truck "collid[ed] with an SUV" with respect to the staffer's car.  The professional news media focused its story on the Biden campaign bus. 


To state what I believe the video shows, without editorial, concerning the SUV / truck collision:

A Trump adorned black truck is tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.  A white SUV in the center lane, to the left of the Biden bus and black truck, attempts to merge in front of the black truck.  The white SUV activates its turn signal and slowly moves partially into the lane occupied by the black truck. The black truck does not yield, [without a legal duty to do so], and the white SUV rides along next to the black truck for a period of time, partially in the black truck's lane. Both vehicles maintain their positions for a period of time.  The white SUV continues to manifest an intent to merge between the bus and the black truck.  The white SUV does not have right of way and the black truck does not yield. Both vehicles maintain their positions. At some point while the two vehicles are driving partially side by side, with the white SUV partially in the black truck's lane, the black truck swerves to the left into the side of the white SUV.  The black truck drives into the white SUV, pushing the white SUV over to the center lane, and the black truck turns back into its lane.  The black truck then drives to the left again into the side of the white SUV, this time pushing the white SUV into the center lane while the black truck continues driving into the center lane while continuing the collision.  The black truck drives at least one full tire width into the center lane while pushing against the white SUV.  The black truck then returns to its original position tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.

I believe that is an accurate description of the video of the collision.  If anyone wishes to affirm that as an accurate representation, or dispute or add any element, please do so.


I don't believe it's helpful to rational discourse to "quote" statements or claims which are not actual statements or quotes.  People may believe that the quotes accurately represent a statement made in a linked article, and perpetuate that quotation.  If the "quote" is actually a fabricated statement, a breakdown in rational discourse can ensue.

[edit: 3 typos]
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 03, 2020, 11:14:00 AM
I was responding more to doctor Cervini than Newsweek. the "crazed trump driver" was mild hyperbole, in that for many leftists, anyone who supports Trump is crazed by default.

And looking a little further into Cervini's thread, I'm amused by this one as well:

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322336490836381696

Quote
"The police refused to help. When I flagged down one officer, he said his hands were tied: “not my jurisdiction.” He was wearing a blue stripe bandana. 4/

Because as was recently demonstrated on this forum, many people believe the "Thin Blue Line" flag is the emblem of a fascist organization, rather than a symbol created by law enforcement members to show support for law enforcement, in particular those who have fallen in the line of duty. (The flag is in black and white to indicate mourning, the blue line down the center indicates law enforcement)

But getting back to the Truck collision:
Quote
These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road. They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car. 3/

In colloquial english, "they ended up hitting a staffer's car." Indicates that it was the Trump supporter that hit the staffer, not the other way around.

Quote
To state what I believe the video shows, without editorial, concerning the SUV / truck collision:

A Trump adorned black truck is tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.  A white SUV in the center lane, to the left of the Biden bus and black truck, attempts to merge in front of the black truck.  The white SUV activates its turn signal and slowly moves partially into the lane occupied by the black truck. The black truck does not yield, [without a legal duty to do so], and the white SUV rides along next to the black truck for a period of time, partially in the black truck's lane. Both vehicles maintain their positions for a period of time.  The white SUV continues to manifest an intent to merge between the bus and the black truck.  The white SUV does not have right of way and the black truck does not yield. Both vehicles maintain their positions. At some point while the two vehicles are driving partially side by side, with the white SUV partially in the black truck's lane, the black truck swerves to the left into the side of the white SUV.  The black truck drives into the white SUV, pushing the white SUV over to the center lane, and the black truck turns back into its lane.

You were fine up to this point. However:
Quote
The black truck then drives to the left again into the side of the white SUV, this time pushing the white SUV into the center lane while the black truck continues driving into the center lane while continuing the collision.  The black truck drives at least one full tire width into the center lane while pushing against the white SUV.  The black truck then returns to its original position tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.

Is not supported by the video evidence I've seen.

Quote
I believe that is an accurate description of the video of the collision.  If anyone wishes to affirm that as an accurate representation, or dispute or add any element, please do so.

1) White SUV makes illegal lane change into the side of the black truck.
2) Black truck "pushes" white SUV back into the center of the middle lane and starts returning to right hand lane, White SUV continues to maintain contact with the black truck
3) Black truck pushes the the white SUV into the center of middle lane again
Even better:
4) (timestamp 4:02 on the previously linked video, but for ease: https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=241 ) the White SUV attempts again to make another forced entry into the right hand lane, although they quickly changed their mind about pursuing it further after the previous rounds.

It could also be noted that the 16 second video clip that Cervini used to open his twitter thread to complain about the staffer's car "being hit" by a Trump supporter?

He seems to be wanting to frame that as the truck in the ditch belonged to a Biden supporter... But it appears to me that the black truck in the ditch was flying a Trump flag. So the only cars that found a ditch, as supported by video, were those driven by Trump supporters?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: wmLambert on November 03, 2020, 12:01:57 PM
This would be all over the MSM if the video supported the Biden view. Since they are staying away, I doubt any closer examination does any good for the Biden camp.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 03, 2020, 12:03:58 PM
This would be all over the MSM if the video supported the Biden view. Since they are staying away, I doubt any closer examination does any good for the Biden camp.

Oh they're reporting on it, they show the edited clip of the Trump truck pushing the staffer's car back into it's initial lane of travel. They also report that "the FBI has opened an investigation" to determine if it was terrorism or not.

But it is fun to see how they breathlessly report on that and want to use it as proof of wrongdoing, but they have radio silence about the FBI investigation of Hunter Biden's computer.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Seriati on November 03, 2020, 12:40:36 PM
Biden's large lead has been remarkably stable, except for recent growth to about 10%. Looks like almost 350 electoral college votes for Biden/Harris, less than 200 for Trump/Pence. Unlike 2016, Biden's lead is above 50% nationally, and of the small number of undecided voters, most of them are likely to go for the challenger over the incumbent.

Sorry, been completely swamped at work pretty much since March.  It's certainly possible that Biden wins big, though I tend to think the actual vote is closer than the polling indicates.  I do think we've already had significant and material voter fraud in favor of Biden, but the absolute rule of voter fraud is it's difficult to catch and no matter how egregious is never going to be counted by anyone as resulting in a stolen election if its pro-democrat.

Quote
I predict there will be considerable attempts to make excuses after the loss. Like the three million imaginary illegal voters that Trump used to explain his loss of the popular vote even as he won the electoral college in 2016.

No, the only reason for this loss, assuming it turns out to be a loss, is the overwhelming blanket of false media coverage for four years.  Non-stop propaganda is why a Republican President that's had a very significant level of success, where 56% of people believe their lives are better than they were four years ago (according to a recent poll), where real family income increased significantly more in four years than in the entire eight years of the prior administration, where the economy was record pace before COVID and recovering at record pace even with COVID is somehow an underdog in an election with a candidate that everyone knows is either senile or suffering from a continuous stream of micro-strokes.  Who won't serve out his term and is a trojan horse for the worst set of political goals put forward by a major party in at least 50 years.

So many people "hate" Trump and can barely tell you why without reverting to sound bites and assertions without evidence.  Okay, that's their right, but it's beyond stupid as a basis for a vote.  Too many think they are voting for prom king and just need to pick the person that they like better, not enough are actually thinking about the real consequences of the policies that will entail.

Quote
So I'd like some predictions from those of you who are going to be trying out excuses in mid-to-late November. When you make accusations about cheating, do you predict that there will be an equal amount of cheating in states with Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, or will your theory of cheating be based on only states where Democrats are in charge? Will you predict that the results will favor Biden more than the pre-election polling in states (like California) where every voter is sent a ballot?

For Democrats cheating is endemic and something to be covered up and protected, for Republicans its an aberration and something to be exposed.  So yes, the party that has favored the Ends justifying the means for decades will cheat more now than the other one (you can find people saying they are cheating on any college kids SnapChat or Instagram by the way).

CA will have an even bigger number of votes for Biden than Hillary, so will all the Blue strongholds that are dominated by angry white liberals.  Karens love Biden, as do white virtue signalers, and they are big populations in some of those states.  I think Trump improves in black and hispanic communities, but I could be wrong, but not by enough as should be expected and it may show more by a lack of voting than a switch of votes.

Quote
My prediction is that the votes for Biden and Trump will be similar to the polling results, with a slight Biden tilt as the late deciders go against the incumbent.

If local voting results  are similar to polling results, that is to me evidence that the results were rigged.  The overall direction could align with the polls but there are too many issues with polling for it to track local results closely (absent manipulation).   Too much tracking makes me think that the results were pushed to match the pro-Biden polls (be fascinated if a real statistical analysis is done on this point - we'll never see it though).

Any event, my prediction from when I first read this thread was Biden probably wins, but not clear if its because of actual votes or fraudulent votes (but the media will never run that story).   My prediction now is that it's less clear, I really think there are 3 possibilities and I can't distinguish between them:

1.  Biden in a landslide, if the Trump hate is strong enough this is possible.  Be honest no one cares about Biden, no one is excited to vote for him, but the hate-thusiam may be strong enough to cause this.

2.  Biden in a squeaker.  Comes down to one or two states and most likely months of law suits, with the media full on press about how Trump's trying to steal the election, no matter how many fraud or other issues come up against the Dems they get non-reported or dismissed.

3.  Trump in a decisive electoral college win.  While the polling says no, the crowd sizes and the overwhelming Trump sign advantage outside of Democratic strongholds, the presence of the silent Trump voters, and the inroads Trump made with traditional Dem voters make this a possibility.  I suspect that this becomes more likely the larger the in person voting becomes.  Media refuses to concede and runs hour after hour of stolen election coverage, blows up any disparity or irregularity into a national scandal (as opposed to burying them in scenario 2).

So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: msquared on November 03, 2020, 12:46:09 PM
Welcome to Ornery.  You are wrong.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: msquared on November 03, 2020, 12:46:49 PM
We will see how many old timers get that line.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: rightleft22 on November 03, 2020, 12:48:54 PM
Quote
So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.

I'm not betting against Trump having a second term

but I don't know. I think the fix is in, that their is enough voter manipulation and repression that Biden can't win any state where the Republicans have influence on the process, but I could be wrong

Two totally different experiences of reality. we each live in different worlds.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: kidv on November 03, 2020, 01:08:13 PM
I would invite anyone to watch the actual 24 second video of the collisions, of which a link is provided in the Dailybeast article linked above.

Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions. 

Detail I omitted previously is that the white SUV is one half a car length ahead of the black truck.  At 15 seconds the black truck swerves into the side of the the white SUV.  [Both vehicles are in contact with each other for a second or two.] The sequence of collisions ends with the black truck driving into the center lane by at least a full tire width and hitting the side of the white SUV with the front of the black truck.  The white SUV steers away to the left. You may wish to pause and review at 17 and 18 seconds. 

The video TheDeamon links and continues to refer to is a 9 minute and 10 second presentation that talks about and misrepresents the 24 second video while never actually showing the 24 second video. The video TheDeamon links shows 5 seconds of the clip, says "From that angle that looks little bit bad, but they only released 24 seconds of the whole clip. Here's the whole clip." And then the video TheDeamon links only shows the last two second clip of the collision, and then continues.  (I believe starting at about 17-18 seconds which I referred above.)

The video TheDeamon links then shows a different video, from 4:24 to 4:46, which shows the white SUV and the black truck riding along next to each other for a complete 22 seconds.  The white SUV is partially in the black truck's lane, with the midline to rear quarter about even with the black truck's front bumper.  Both vehicles are riding next to each other in close formation.  The white SUV does not make any contact with the black truck.  [This is played over sinister music with a voiceover claiming the white SUV was trying the force the black truck off the road.]  It does not appear the video TheDeamon links ever shows the complete 24 second which the speaker declares was never shown to the audience, but the speaker continues to describe how misrepresented the incident has been portrayed.

To attempt to overcome this misrepresentation I believe it best to look at the actual original video without commentary which I link to above, which the DailyBeast article links to.

So with both videos together, the white SUV and black truck drove together for at least 22 seconds until the black truck steered into the side of the white SUV, the white SUV moved and stabilized, the vehicles contacted again, and the black truck drove into the side of the white SUV and continued to do so driving into the center lane while in contact with the white SUV.  The white SUV steered away and to the far side of the left lane.  The collision ended. 

I do not believe I am mis-describing the collision, nor did I before.  It is legally and factually relevant (from an intent and fault standpoint), that the front of the black truck drove into the side of the white SUV, and had to swerve left to do so, when they had been driving together in detente for at least 24 seconds.

Please advise.

----------------------

As to the Cervini tweet showing a line of trucks with the lead truck in the median, [welcome to ornery, you are wrong.] As I understood, Dr. Cervini was describing a long line of Trump trucks parked and waiting along the freeway, waiting to intercept the Biden campaign bus, which later occurred.  The lead truck appears to simply be parked in the median as cool trucks can do.  I did not understand it to be a representation of a truck forced off the road, but the lead vehicle in a long line of waiting Trump trucks. [I find it interesting as I notice that the video TheDeamon links to is titled "Kamala CHASED OUT Of Texas By Trump Supporters! Leftists LIE About What Happened, Here's The TRUTH." I continue to find it amusing that the "24 second video" which was withheld from us is never played in the 9:10 summation of Kamala being "CHASED OUT Of Texas . . .")

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322336226792321025 (https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322336226792321025)  This is also directly linked in the DailyBeast article.


When a factual dispute arises, continuing to rely on or cite to sources which misrepresent source material can interfere with and actually prevent coming to a common understanding of undisputed facts, and interfere with rational discourse.  I continue to be pleasantly surprised by professional journalists who follow standards in presenting news.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus (https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus)



 

Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 03, 2020, 01:27:37 PM
You need to pay more attention, I'd love to see where the actual source video's are. The links you provide only goto redacted edited versions of the source material, and the youtube video I link to has the more complete version (and two different perspectives) of the vehicle on vehicle encounter.

If you listen to the commentary of the people filming those videos you'd also note the camera people seem to be pro-trump and amused to see what's going on. (At least until the collision happens, after which they call the white SUV driver bad names)

Which doesn't match up with pro-biden activists suddenly becoming the source for the footage they're using.

Yes, the video I linked isn't the primary source, and he does some obvious manipulation of the video, but his manipulation consists of freeze framing and highlighting things, not deleting material video evidence.

I'd love to see the guy who could post-process their way into ever changing perspectives and filming angles. I guess if he had some high end gear and rendered the entire situation to create what he wanted to show "deep fake style" that's possible, but given the time frame of these video's going up and everything else, that's some hard-core tin-foil hat conspiracy theory BS.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Seriati on November 03, 2020, 01:35:08 PM
I'd love to see the law and order people jump on this as hard as when BLM blocks highways. Buy yourself just a little bit of credibility. I think you can do it, even knowing you probably won't.
I have zero expectation that this will happen.  I especially don't expect them to take the president to task for encouraging these attackers after the fact.  Normally, we would all be asking ourselves "how could the president of the United States be encouraging violence captured on video by his followers against his opponent?"

But of course - Trump.  That this has become accepted behaviour by the leader of your country just shows how far down the rat hole the country has fallen.

Yes of course its Trump, only in your delusion.  We have Democratic mayors, governors and prosecutors that have openly encouraged and turned blind eyes to rioters for months and it's all Trump's fault.  Lol.

I don't like anyone blocking roads, no matter their politics, and in this case its particularly un-productive because letting Biden speak is actually the best way to undermine Biden.

However, I do find it curious that there do seem to be an enormous amount of extremely passionate Trump supporters all over the country, yet that somehow doesn't show up in the polling.  Is that an error?  Is that an illusion?  Is it a question that you're ready to ask yourself why you only see those massive crowds when the media wants to criticize them?  Bet you would see them if Biden was drawing them.

At the end of the day, no matter how happy you are if Biden wins, you really need to wake up to the misinformation that you are being fed.  You can't have a free country if this continues.  This election should have been about an honest discussion of the candidates strengths and weaknesses and the policies they are going to pursue on the country's behalf, and it's been anything but that.  If Biden is following the right policies and is the clear better choice, why is the media doing everything in its power to bury the discussion that would show it?  Do you ever ask yourself these questions?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Seriati on November 03, 2020, 01:44:06 PM
We will see how many old timers get that line.

Funny enough, pretty sure it's the first time its been said to me.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Seriati on November 03, 2020, 01:47:36 PM
Quote
So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.

I'm not betting against Trump having a second term

but I don't know. I think the fix is in, that their is enough voter manipulation and repression that Biden can't win any state where the Republicans have influence on the process, but I could be wrong

Two totally different experiences of reality. we each live in different worlds.

Well except you'd be hard pressed to describe a vector for the Republicans to engage in wide spread vote manipulation.  For the most part, Republicans are strong in lower population counties, where they just can find enough votes to add, even if they wanted to do so.  They are also largely support the rule of law, the constitution and generally are law and order types.  Politicians are not the same as the voters that support them, and there are unethical people on all sides, but casual acceptance of the ends justifying the means is not a Republican ideal.

But I congratulate you on once again thinking you made a point by flipping the names in a quote, even if you didn't engage in a second's worth of actual analysis to do it.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: msquared on November 03, 2020, 01:48:43 PM
For those who do not know, when Ornery was founded around 20 years ago, that was the traditional welcoming to a new poster.

Welcome to Ornery. You are wrong.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Seriati on November 03, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions.

This is the only version I've watched and it's completely useless.  Why would you cite to a video that doesn't have a direct view of the two vehicles and doesn't record who initiated the contact?

This has no value as a piece of evidence.

Quote
Detail I omitted previously is that the white SUV is one half a car length ahead of the black truck.  At 15 seconds the black truck swerves into the side of the the white SUV.  [Both vehicles are in contact with each other for a second or two.] The sequence of collisions ends with the black truck driving into the center lane by at least a full tire width and hitting the side of the white SUV with the front of the black truck.  The white SUV steers away to the left. You may wish to pause and review at 17 and 18 seconds.

Given that you missed the only key piece of evidence a video would provide - how it started - the fact that the after effects showed this means nothing.  This is exactly what you would expect if the SUV initiated a contact with the pick-up, and honestly, that initiation of contact would be criminal.  The truck deserved a ticket for dangerous driving and tailgating, but SUV driver also deserves an even larger ticket for dangerous driving (and tailgating and lane infringement).   

Quote
To attempt to overcome this misrepresentation I believe it best to look at the actual original video without commentary which I link to above, which the DailyBeast article links to.

I may, but your credibility took hit with me when I followed the link above.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Fenring on November 03, 2020, 01:59:45 PM
Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

Ok, I just watched this video...

Quote
It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions.

This seems like a bizarre way to categorize what I would call an incredibly aggressive (or dangerous) driving position of the white SUV. That's like saying a person is 'peaceably' maintaining his distance from a guy while aiming a gun at him. The white SUV is either changing lanes without looking, which is a bit hard to believe given how long it went on without honking and course-correcting, or it's something else.

The something else might not be so clear-cut, but I could imagine two cases that I would reasonably expect to see on the road:

1) White SUV was trying to change lanes, black vehicle moves forward to not let him in, white SUV angrily stays in merging position refusing to not be allowed to merge, remaining slightly forward and still half in the inside lane. The ensuing positioning and maneuvering would then be the white SUV refusing to take no for an answer and trying to push in front of the black vehicle.

2) White SUV is doing what I've seen before on occasion, someone messing with someone else on the road, taunting them or driving aggressively toward them. It's even happened to me once or twice randomly on the highway, someone driving in a way that should get them arrested if seen, basically threatening you for fun. Or it could be out of rage, like if you honk people who do dangerous things, one out of every thousand will go berserk and actually go insane.

Based on the video, it really looks more like #2, although it could in theory be #1. There is nothing peaceable about the situation either way, the driver of the white SUV is a maniac.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 03, 2020, 02:11:59 PM
I would invite anyone to watch the actual 24 second video of the collisions, of which a link is provided in the Dailybeast article linked above.

Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

That video is a line of trucks flying trump flags with a black truck in the ditch at the front of the line... Also with a Trump flag? I already mentioned this previously. (the tailgate doesn't match the other black truck involved with the white SUV with the Democrat staffer)

Quote
It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions.

Now "the other angle" https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=261
4:23 to 4:46 which appears to be immediately before the video of what the two vehicles come into contact with each other.

That 23 second video is presumably taken from the white truck to the left of and just in front of the White SUV in the (earlier) other video. (time stamp 3:38)

The video of "the collision event" runs from 3:32(the SUV and black truck enter the frame at 3:36) to 3:40, at which point he stops to interject some commentary. But then he resumes at 3:47 and continues to 4:14.... 3:32 to 3:40 is 8 seconds, 3:47(okay, 3:47 to 3:51 is a repeat of 3:36 to 3:40) to 4:14 is 27(or 23 due to the 4 second over-lap) seconds, that seems to come out to 31 seconds worth of video in total from the youtuber.

Oh and a further review of the Dailybeast video... The Youtuber I'm referencing dropped the first 9-ish seconds of the clip the Dailybeast shows. So they have roughly 14 seconds of overlap from the same primary source video,  the Dailybeast cuts away immediately after the side-swipe happens, while the youtuber I'm linking to continues with the source video for another 13 seconds where she states the SUV driver from California(The DNC staffer) was in the wrong.

Also incidentally, the Dailybeast's "10 seconds earlier video" also corroborates my claim of the "second source" being the white pickup truck. As you can see it lane change, go around the other white truck also flying Trump flags, and pull up alongside the Staffer's SUV.

Also, at 4:00 to 4:05 you can see the staffer car try to invade the right hand lane again before thinking better of it.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Fenring on November 03, 2020, 02:27:19 PM
Now "the other angle" https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=261
4:23 to 4:46 which appears to be immediately before the video of what the two vehicles come into contact with each other.

After watching this one as well, it seems difficult to interpret the situation any other way than to say that whoever was driving the white SUV should be arrested. Despite Seriati's comment above, I'm not 100% sure the black vehicle finally doing what it did is illegitimate, if you believe you are mortal danger and try to knock the other guy to make him stop attacking your position. I wouldn't have done it, but I could see how it could be understood to be the highway version of self-defense.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 03, 2020, 02:31:33 PM
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? Trying to squeeze between two vehicles, while the vehicle you are closest to refuses to make room?  Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

I guarantee you that both of those drivers would have been ticketed if a cop was there.

Of course, pretending this was a normal situation is silly.  There were at least a dozen vehicles (probably more) where the drivers were coordinating their actions so as to intimidate other drivers on the road, surrounding the other vehicles and even slowing down immediately in front of them (at the least) far below what would be a safe speed on an expressway.

As far as the specific actions of the white van and the black truck drivers during the collision are concerned - there doesn't seem to be any video showing the white car turning into the black truck - the only lateral movement towards contact shown on the video is the black truck moving into the space occupied by the white van.  Is there a time sequence on the video showing otherwise? (and I don't mean where the white vehicle is driving parallel to the black truck, and encroaching in an unsafe manner. I mean unambiguously actually initiating contact.) 
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 03, 2020, 02:32:31 PM
After watching this one as well, it seems difficult to interpret the situation any other way than to say that whoever was driving the white SUV should be arrested. Despite Seriati's comment above, I'm not 100% sure the black vehicle finally doing what it did is illegitimate, if you believe you are mortal danger and try to knock the other guy to make him stop attacking your position. I wouldn't have done it, but I could see how it could be understood to be the highway version of self-defense.
Um, well.. Yeah, getting pissed and using your vehicle to strike another vehicle will get you arrested for any number of reasons.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: kidv on November 03, 2020, 02:34:25 PM
Re: Collision in Texas.

There is only one original video which shows the collision. 

The video embedded in the link from the Dailybeast article (press play on the top picture embedded in the tweet) is a 24 second video which shows 15 seconds before the collision to 6 seconds after.  The collision occurs from ~15 to 19 seconds.  You can go Zapruder and pause and advance each frame.  https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395 (https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395)

The link shared by TheDeamon [Liberal Hivemind] plays 5 seconds of the above 24 second video, doing so from 3:35 to 3:40 of the video.  [The narrator complains about us not being given entire 24 second clip, and then says "here's the whole clip." Then 'Liberal Hivemind" plays, from 3:48 to 4:13 of his video, the clip linked above starting at 15 seconds (the collision) to an additional 15 seconds.  "Liberal Hivemind" never plays the first 15 seconds of the original video.  "Liberal Hivemind" plays a different video, from 4:24 to 4:46. which shows some time prior to the collision, which shows the white SUV and black truck driving in close proximity semi-copacetically sharing a piece of lane for 22 seconds.  If you want to go Zapruder on that video, you can slow youtube to .25 frames per second and play 3:35 to 4:40 to your delight.

--------------------

Reply to Fenring:  We're now all talking about the same video (or the same 5 seconds of that video).  There's only one source video which shows the collision.  I'm mystified to be faulted for sharing the link to that video.  It shows what is shows, and we can have a rational discussion about it.

----------------

How we got here:  "Liberal Hivemind"'s video referred to a 24 second video that we weren't shown all of, and then showed a different segment of that same video without showing the 24 seconds linked previously. 

Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Fenring on November 03, 2020, 02:40:37 PM
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? [...] Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

Uh, unfortunately you will see this all the time in Montreal, Quebec. :(
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: NobleHunter on November 03, 2020, 02:41:50 PM
Uh, unfortunately you will see this all the time in Montreal, Quebec. :(

I don't know if it's confirmation bias but I sure noticed a lot of banged up fenders when I was in Montreal.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: rightleft22 on November 03, 2020, 02:42:09 PM
Quote
So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.

I'm not betting against Trump having a second term

but I don't know. I think the fix is in, that their is enough voter manipulation and repression that Biden can't win any state where the Republicans have influence on the process, but I could be wrong

Two totally different experiences of reality. we each live in different worlds.

Well except you'd be hard pressed to describe a vector for the Republicans to engage in wide spread vote manipulation.  For the most part, Republicans are strong in lower population counties, where they just can find enough votes to add, even if they wanted to do so.  They are also largely support the rule of law, the constitution and generally are law and order types.  Politicians are not the same as the voters that support them, and there are unethical people on all sides, but casual acceptance of the ends justifying the means is not a Republican ideal.

But I congratulate you on once again thinking you made a point by flipping the names in a quote, even if you didn't engage in a second's worth of actual analysis to do it.

The point was that your argument is as good as mine neither of which proves anything other then that we live if different realities.
except in mine I can acknowledge that those on the left aren't always on the up and up, But I doubt very much you are capable of seeing anything wrong with the way the right views 'law and order'. Rules they set but won't play by them

The point is that had I made such a statement about a "fix" before you their is no way in hell that you would have accepted it as being valid so why the hell do you think your statement should convince me you have something to say? Other then that your a hypocrite
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Fenring on November 03, 2020, 02:44:25 PM
Um, well.. Yeah, getting pissed and using your vehicle to strike another vehicle will get you arrested for any number of reasons.

I get how striking someone else intentionally is obviously a big deal. But your characterization of "getting pissed" suggests a particular scenario and motive. Change the sentence to "getting scared and..." and suddenly you have someone doing something dangerous, putting someone else in a scared situation they are not supposed to be encountering, and an unfortunate reaction resulting. Doing a wrong think as a 'forced error' is something that I doubt could be prosecuted or even ticketed if you in no way created the bad situation. For instance if someone does something unexpected on a sidewalk, jumping right in your face or scaring you or something, and in a panic you throw a punch in self-defense, I do not believe the "nyah-nyah he hit me first" argument would hold any water.

That's all I meant when I said I wasn't sure if the black vehicle did anything wrong. It may have, but it may not have.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: kidv on November 03, 2020, 02:52:25 PM
Now we can interpret.

The white SUV attempted to merge into the lane occupied by the black truck.  The white SUV entered the lane in a position ahead of the black truck, but approaching a position held by the black truck.  The white SUV maintained a position next to the black truck (both vehicles taking no further action and maintaining their same relative positions and speed) for at least 22 seconds.

Then, I can see the black truck drive into the left side of the white SUV, initiating contact multiple times, to force the white SUV out of the right lane. 

   N.B. if you intentionally drive into someone's car next to you, even if they are in your lane, you have committed an intentional act.  You have also likely committed a crime.  Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.  There's no evidence of the white SUV ever moving into the black truck, but just moving immediately next to it.  The black truck had no obligation to yield to the white SUV. It was entitled to maintain its position.  The black truck could have also yielded. The white SUV could have been cited for improper lane change, or for various other naming of that traffic violation.  Nothing seen would give the black truck the right to drive into the white SUV.

 It's the same situation as standing directly in front of some one.  Rude and invading their space.  If the person standing just continues to stand nose to nose with you, you can't punch them in the face.  You can maintain your space forever, or you can walk away.  Making contact (throwing the first punch) is an assault.  Standing next to someone, or driving next to someone is not an assault.


edit: there to their
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 03, 2020, 02:54:54 PM
Reply to Fenring:  We're now all talking about the same video (or the same 5 seconds of that video).  There's only one source video which shows the collision.  I'm mystified to be faulted for sharing the link to that video.  It shows what is shows, and we can have a rational discussion about it.

----------------

How we got here:  "Liberal Hivemind"'s video referred to a 24 second video that we weren't shown all of, and then showed a different segment of that same video without showing the 24 seconds linked previously.

The 10 seconds of the video that Liberal Hivemind omitted wasn't meaningfully relevant material to the incident in any way I'm able to discern, it does suggest the white SUV was too far to the right in its lane of travel, but the white (trump) pickup truck blocks any visibility or what is going on between the black truck and the white (staffer) SUV.

You aren't "being attacked" for citing the Eric Cervini clip of the accident. You're being corrected that while he shared a clip of the video in question, he is not the source of the video, as I doubt he'd find the situation "hilarious" for one. For another, his video clip fails to provide the following 14+ additional seconds of video that Liberal Hivemind included in his own sharing of the video. The difference here is Eric Cervini is fine with you thinking he's the source(to a point), while Liberal Hivemind makes no such claim.

And the unanswered question you need to solve is if Eric is the source where did Liberal Hivemind get that extra footage from?

Logically that means there must be another version from the real source that has a more complete accounting of what went on there, as neither Eric Cervini not Liberal Hivemind provide a full and clear context for that video.

That and you seem to be very obstinate about not wanting to recognize that Liberal Hivemind does provide video footage that Cervini did not. While you're more than happy to point out the (irrelevant) material Liberal Hivemind dropped.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Fenring on November 03, 2020, 03:01:12 PM
Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.
[...]
It's the same situation as standing directly in front of some one.  Rude and invading their space.

No offense, but I've gotta say this this is one of the most obtuse arguments I've ever seen someone make here. Anyone with a lick of sense in a situation like that on the road would know they are a hair's breadth away from death every instant that the white SUV remains in that position. Along with your previous characterization of it being "peaceable" I have to say you are totally lacking perspective of what a situation like that really is.

I cannot be sure what the white SUV's motives are, nor is it clear they were merely trying to merge lanes. But I can be sure that the person driving the black vehicle would have been well within the realm of reason to feel like their life was in immediate danger.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 03, 2020, 03:02:45 PM
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? [...] Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

Uh, unfortunately you will see this all the time in Montreal, Quebec. :(
Fenring, do you drive that way in Montreal, Quebec?
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Wayward Son on November 03, 2020, 03:04:02 PM
What I see in the Biden bus changing lanes to the right.  The white truck I heard was with the bus, and changed lanes with it, to stay behind the bus.  The black pickup was already in the right lane and moved to the shoulder when the white truck moved into his lane.  Then it looks like the black truck got mad, didn't want to surrender the lane, and so swiped the white truck out of his lane back into the center lane.

Bad driving all around. :(
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 03, 2020, 03:08:21 PM
Now we can interpret.

And you'd be making interpretations based on evidence not available, even in the "Cervini clip" of the incident, by the time the two vehicles "enter frame" in a manner where you can see what's going on, they're already in physical contact with one another. We have zero video evidence at this time to indicate who hit who first. What we do have is video evidence of the White SUV operating their vehicle in a highly dangerous and illegal manner for tens of seconds prior to the incident happening however.

Police would likely cite both parties as being at fault if pressed to issue a citation, however the lion's share of fault would go to the Staffer.

snipping some
Quote
Then, I can see the black truck drive into the left side of the white SUV, initiating contact multiple times, to force the white SUV out of the right lane.

I see two vehicles already in physical contact when the camera brings them into frame. At that point, you're in a grey zone but most "reasonable persons" would likely conclude that the Black Truck was "reasonably" entitled to "assist" the other other driver back into their proper lane. Although they'd also likely agree that doing so was reckless behavior and that backing off would have been the more prudent course of action. 

Quote
N.B. if you intentionally drive into someone's car next to you, even if they are in your lane, you have committed an intentional act.  You have also likely committed a crime.  Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.  There's no evidence of the white SUV ever moving into the black truck, but just moving immediately next to it.  The black truck had no obligation to yield to the white SUV. It was entitled to maintain its position.

There is no evidence to support the idea that the Black truck initiated contact in this scenario, and plenty of circumstantial evidence to support the SUV in furtherance of a "pressure" move while playing "chicken" on the highway with the truck was in fact the one who initiated said contact. Once contact happened however....

Quote
The black truck could have also yielded. The white SUV could have been cited for improper lane change, or for various other naming of that traffic violation.  Nothing seen would give the black truck the right to drive into the white SUV.

Improper lane change, inattentive driving, reckless driving(which is nearly as bad as DUI) , and possibly public endangerment. Or course, the black truck could get a reckless driving and public endangerment charge as well.

I imagine Texas probably has some Road Rage laws that could be applied as well, and those I'd suspect would tend to be leveled against the SUV driver. If he really wanted in the right hand lane, he could have slowed down and pulled in behind the truck as well. ;)
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: DonaldD on November 03, 2020, 03:09:09 PM
I'm not 100% sure the black vehicle finally doing what it did is illegitimate, if you believe you are mortal danger and try to knock the other guy to make him stop attacking your position.
Is there evidence of the white van striking the black van?  It's really hard to characterize somebody as feeling they are in "mortal danger" when they are in a phalanx of a dozen (or dozens) of co-conspirators, refusing to back away from an erratic driver and staying inches away from that vehicle for half a minute all while tailgating another vehicle that you are consciously attempting to intimidate.

You're reallllly stretching there.

So no, there is almost no interpretation of the black driver's actions that are excusable, unless there is a clip of video showing the white van initiating contact, and the black truck's actions being simply a reaction to the force of that contact.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: yossarian22c on November 03, 2020, 03:14:38 PM
Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.
[...]
It's the same situation as standing directly in front of some one.  Rude and invading their space.

No offense, but I've gotta say this this is one of the most obtuse arguments I've ever seen someone make here. Anyone with a lick of sense in a situation like that on the road would know they are a hair's breadth away from death every instant that the white SUV remains in that position. Along with your previous characterization of it being "peaceable" I have to say you are totally lacking perspective of what a situation like that really is.

I cannot be sure what the white SUV's motives are, nor is it clear they were merely trying to merge lanes. But I can be sure that the person driving the black vehicle would have been well within the realm of reason to feel like their life was in immediate danger.

Or the black pick up could have slowed down slightly and let the white SUV merge behind the bus. That's the appropriate response, not ramming another vehicle on the road. And lets be clear the Biden staffer was probably scared by being boxed in by all the Trump flag carrying trucks and was trying to get into a driving position where they couldn't be separated from the bus.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Grant on November 03, 2020, 03:17:22 PM
I'm so, so glad that I really don't give a *censored* who is breaking traffic laws somewhere.  I figure the cops can handle it, especially if it's on video. 
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: TheDeamon on November 03, 2020, 03:23:44 PM
I'm so, so glad that I really don't give a *censored* who is breaking traffic laws somewhere.  I figure the cops can handle it, especially if it's on video.

Police generally don't want to deal with issuing traffic citations related to accidents unless it involves death, injury, or property damages in excess of $1,000 (which has been trivially easy to do for nearly 20 years now) and even with the greater than $1,000 in damage don't expect them to want to become involved unless things turn physically violent.

As Cervini complained, the police were uninterested in doing anything(of course, he wasn't even a party to it), although he tries to attach a political motivation to their lack of interest. Nope, they just have other things they need to do, so until you demonstrate an actual threat to life, they're not going to do anything unless they're bored. Too much paper work, and legal overhead for them, so unless they actually saw it, they're not going to want to get involved.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: rightleft22 on November 03, 2020, 03:41:59 PM
Sad, good people on both sides

really this is the type of crap being debated. who's to blame so that 'our side' can feel its righteous indignation and 'prove' that their generalizations about the terrible horrible other side is correct.
Is this what we have to do to feel better about our selves. 

We all need to take a good long look at what were doing and the reality were creating.
Shame on all of us
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: Seriati on November 03, 2020, 04:01:30 PM
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? Trying to squeeze between two vehicles, while the vehicle you are closest to refuses to make room?  Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

Spend more than an hour on I-95 around NY and you'll see all that and worse dozens of times.

Not sure though why this is being looked at in the abstract, isn't this supposed to be the Biden bus, tailgated by a Trumper in a black pickup and involving a Biden supporter in the white SUV?

Against that backdrop, the driver of the black pickup was very deserving of a ticket and maybe an arrest for reckless driving prior to the interplay with the white SUV.  However, it also seems pretty clear that the white SUV was trying to force the black truck away from the bus by initiating a potential wreck.  They probably viewed this as defending the bus against a reckless driver, but the solution to that is not to initiate what could be a fatal accident.

What's most surprising is that there aren't any police on the scene.  The bus has a radio.

Quote
Of course, pretending this was a normal situation is silly.  There were at least a dozen vehicles (probably more) where the drivers were coordinating their actions so as to intimidate other drivers on the road, surrounding the other vehicles and even slowing down immediately in front of them (at the least) far below what would be a safe speed on an expressway.

I agree, this is not the way to resolve political differences.  Of course, neither is shutting down speech at universities, staging counter protests for the purpose of beating and intimidating those trying to have a political rally, shouting down speakers, taking over stages, or really anyone of a thousand suppressions of speech that you didn't bat an eye at, including some that were more violent and risky than this.
Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: kidv on November 03, 2020, 04:04:47 PM
I believe Twitter allows maximum posts of 50 second videos.  I would expect whoever took the original video posted about a 50 second video to twitter.  Dr. Servini tweeted a link to the first 24 seconds of the video (up to the collision).  Liberal Hivemind posted what looks like the last 24 seconds of the video (from the collision onward).  To dissect discussions, I am aware the moments before collisions are very legally relevant (and what happens after is completely legally irrelevant). I thus felt misinformed by liberal hivemind, as he discussed 24 seconds of missing video as a mode of deceit, and then liberal hivemind did not show me those 24 seconds which I know existed and wanted to see for context.

_____

From here it's an academic exercise in eyewitness testimony.  I believe if I were presenting this to a jury I feel like if I blew up the video of the collision to 8 by 8 foot size I would clearly show the black truck move into the white one.  I believe I'm seeing that there at the start.  If someone doesn't then agree then that's a camera view we don't have. A further dispositive issue I see as evidence is the black truck clearly driving into the white vehicle at the end, when the white vehicle is in the center lane and steering away to the left.  It may be left to the audience to determine if they see differently based on the identity of political affiliation of the participants.


All the principles I have stated are correct issues as a matter of law in determining fault, not as a description of politeness.


I believe deliberately demonstrative lane changes are a feature of all major metropolitan traffic.  People go where they need to go, and see if the other person yields.  As long as someone yields, traffic has successfully taken place. (it's all fun and games until someone crunches metal.)



Title: Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
Post by: rightleft22 on November 03, 2020, 04:43:36 PM
is this the video
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/fbi-investigating-biden-bus-trump/index.html?

it looks like harassment to me. tickets for the tailgater and the one attempting to do a lane change.
Hope insurance refuses to cover any of it.