Good time for the UK or no?

[TheDrake]

They have started distributing the vaccine there, that is good news. On the other hand Brexit is about to cross a milestone, and there is no solution in sight.

Boris Johnson will fly to Brussels later for talks on a post-Brexit deal with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Time is running out to reach a deal with the UK set to stop following EU trading rules on 31 December.

Brexit

They do appear to have settled the Ireland question, though they have not provided the details.

[yossarian22c]

Tough time for the UK. I think they only have 800,000 doses of the phizer vaccine. I think they banked more on the Oxford vaccine, which is also promising but at least a month behind in the approval process. That may play out good for them long term since the Oxford vaccine is much easier to distribute and administer, even if it is slightly less effective.

But a no deal Brexit hammering their economy on top of the pandemic would be devastating.

[TheDrake]

Repeating his words for emphasis, the prime minister could not have been clearer.

Boris Johnson has given the strongest signal yet that he sees a no-deal situation as the most likely outcome from talks with the EU.

That may be a "strong possibility," but still he said the UK would do everything it could to reach an agreement.

He also raised the prospect of talks with other European leaders to unlock the process. Could trips to Paris or Berlin be on the cards?

Mr Johnson insists the EU's demands are unreasonable and making negotiations unnecessarily difficult.

[DJQuag]

Nah, I'm in the UK at the moment and we're definitely screwed. Hundred percent.

Johnson was at the forefront the entire time for this entire debacle and he was Trump 2.0, some demented fool who thought he could mess his hair up a bit and look like ome of the "regular" people.

One of the only good things about Covid is he walked into the PM's office on the back of rainbows and promises to wealthy people, massive *censored* eating grin on his face about how he tricked everyone.

And now when you see him speak publicly you can see it in his eyes just how tired he is, this virus and the Brexit negotiations have defeated him utterly. Best thing is how you can see that he knows it.

PS  - When I said he was at the front of the debacle he was one of the head figures of the Leave campaign from early days. Not Covid. He's sucked balls on Covid as well though.

[DonaldD]

Seen on Twitter: Titanic News: Let's Get the Iceberg Done

[TheDrake]

“We have little time remaining, just a few hours, to work through these negotiations in a useful fashion if we want the agreement to enter into force on the 1st January,” Barner said.

“There is a chance of getting an agreement but the path to such an agreement is very narrow.”

Both Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen adopted more downbeat tones following a phone call on Thursday night, with Johnson suggesting a deal was unlikely unless the bloc was willing to make concessions on fisheries.

So the UK is going to implode their economy over fish? 

[oldbrian]

Fishing is probably a huge industry for an island nation historically known for its fleet of ships.

[TheDrake]

According to the "Fishing Daily"

The 3.5% of Britain’s GDP has been questioned by some with one commentator pointing out that in 2019, the fishing industry accounted for 0.12% of the UK’s GDP

Regardless of any emotional attachment, it is in a word stupid to eat tariffs to try to expand 1/800th of your economy.

[yossarian22c]

According to the "Fishing Daily"

The 3.5% of Britain’s GDP has been questioned by some with one commentator pointing out that in 2019, the fishing industry accounted for 0.12% of the UK’s GDP

Regardless of any emotional attachment, it is in a word stupid to eat tariffs to try to expand 1/800th of your economy.

Even with perfect information, people don’t always make rational economic decisions. It’s why a lot of economic models stink.

[Seriati]

Do you really not understand the issue with fishing rights?  It's one of the things that pushed Brexit in the first place.  EU countries (excluding the UK) are catching 760 thousand tons of fish in UK waters, the UK is catching 90 thousand tons in EU waters.  UK has more surface area of ocean than all of the continental EU, with Ireland the EU has slightly more than the UK.

With a 5 million ton harvest annually, that's a significant hit to the EU if they are excluded from UK waters and a not a hit all for the UK.  The EU loses almost half of their current fishing waters.  The UK already is a major fishing country with big exports to the EU.  The EU fishing fleets will stand to lose 650 thousand tons of harvest - that there is no easy way to make up sustainably.

Pretty much a massive swing in fortune for something that has been core to English identity and the source of enormous infighting over the years for the EU.

[TheDrake]

Oh I understand the stakes that revolve around fishing. I don't understand dying on that hill and taking a no-deal Brexit over it.

[TheDrake]

it's worth remembering that fishing is only a tiny fraction of the overall economy both in the UK (about 0.02% in 2019) and in the EU (some landlocked countries have no fishing fleets at all).

According to the Office for National Statistics, fishing was worth £437m to the UK economy in 2019. By comparison, the financial services industry was worth £126bn.

According to officials close to the negotiations, the U.K. on Friday rejected an EU offer that would see the bloc lose around 25% of the current 650 million euros ($795 million) of fish caught annually in British waters. The U.K. is pushing the reduction to be closer to 60%, according to the officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

To put that into context, the negotiations are snagged over fishing rights equivalent to about 0.1% of U.K. gross domestic product. The British government’s own analysis in 2018 suggested the economy will be at least 2.6% smaller in 15 years’ time if there’s no trade deal.

[DJQuag]

I'm cautiously optimistic, but it's looking like the fishing dispute was typical politician brinkmanship. Now that we're closer to the deadline it looks like they're getting much more serious about things and a deal might well come in before Christmas.

[Seriati]

I think it's funny that the EU offered to keep 75% of their fishing rights in the UK, and the UK pushed back that they should only keep 40%.  One might think that the initial expectation is zero percent, with EU fishermen free to bid on terms like any other non-citizen asking to exploit a countries natural resources.

[DonaldD]

It's not actually surprising, when you consider that the UK fishing industry only makes up less than 0.2% of it's economy, and there are at least a few other areas of the economy that make up even more than that 0.2% which are concurrently being negotiated.  It's almost as if there is a whole multi-country trade agreement being discussed...

[Seriati]

Lol, when you come up with an informed opinion on something let me know.

[DonaldD]

oooh... burn.  Ditto.

[Aris Katsaris]

Lol, when you come up with an informed opinion on something let me know.

What exactly are you disputing here?

The fishing industry is actually less than 0.2% of UK's economy, closer to 0.12% of it, instead:
(https://www.dw.com/en/uk-fishing-industry-or-brexits-red-herrings/a-51418061)

The UK's fishing and fish processing industries employ 24,000 people and contribute 1.4 billion pounds (€1.6 billion, $1.8 billion) to the UK economy, according to a House of Commons research library briefing. That is a mere 0.12% of GDP involving under 0.1% of the UK's 33-million national workforce.

[Seriati]

Disputing the relevance of the argument.  Fishing is a symbolic industry, pretending its all about a percentage demonstrates a poor grasp of what's actually going on.

[TheDrake]

Disputing the relevance of the argument.  Fishing is a symbolic industry, pretending its all about a percentage demonstrates a poor grasp of what's actually going on.

I must have missed the class in business school when you are supposed to negotiate based on symbolism rather than BATNA.

[DonaldD]

I wonder what's worth more, and to which side  - EU fishing rights in UK waters or access to EU working visas for UK citizens... it's almost as if there are long-negotiated positions on both sides, and the UK knows where it can push harder and where it needs to bend...

As for "pretending its all about a percentage" - nobody did that; that's something that happened all inside your own head.

[Aris Katsaris]

As far as I can tell, and from what I read, UK folded completely over fishing, so it turns out it wasn't that important after all, symbolic or not.

[TheDrake]

And the UK is officially NOT having a good time. They have more new cases per day than anyone but the United States. In raw numbers. In per capita deaths, they have moved ahead of the US. Fully locked down again.

Meanwhile Brexit is doing some weird stuff I never thought about, including the suspension of .eu domain names registered by UK citizens. There's also uncertainty in financial services that I'm not really qualified to unravel, but it has potential destabilization. Reports are already out there that EU retailers won't be delivering to the UK because of costs, including registering for VAT in the UK.

The most positive news out of there is that everyone seems to agree on who is the Prime Minister.

[Fenring]

The most positive news out of there is that everyone seems to agree on who is the Prime Minister.

Good old Trudeau.