Author Topic: Election Day  (Read 90123 times)

Pete at Home

  • Members
    • View Profile
Election Day
« on: March 14, 2016, 02:33:31 PM »
OK, cards on the table.  If the election was today, and you had a choice of any candidate still running, who do you vote for and why?  Let's stick to discussion of your candidate only.  Not a litany of negatives against the others (there are plenty of threads for that).  If you've got nothing positive to say about your candidate, then say the name and ya esta.

I am for Sanders.  He seems like the most honest candidate we've had since Carter, but more magnetic.  I trust him to do what he thinks is right, and if he doesn't have a majority, he'll negotiate lawfully.  We need that sort of a leader.  We're getting to the point where some Americans hate more Americans than they fear Daesh and Al Qaeda.  Enough is enough.  I can't see anyone hating Bernie.  He's basically the anti-Trump.

AI Wessex

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2016, 02:35:44 PM »
I like Sanders but still think (with all her baggage) that Clinton would be more effective.  I can't stomach any of the candidates still in the running on the GOP side.

Wayward Son

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2016, 03:29:52 PM »
I think Sanders would be stymied by the Republican House just like Obama, and after a short while attacked just as vehemently.  Hillary at least has experience being attacked and stymied, so she's my best hope to actually get something done with this oppositional Congress.  Hillary.

D.W.

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2016, 03:39:58 PM »
Sanders, for the reasons Pete pointed out and because if you are going to be opposed either way, I'd rather be stopped trying to do the right thing rather than surrendering on several issues trying to build "good will" for negotiating and then getting stopped anyway...  On top of obstructionism I don't like, he may add obstructionism I DO like via veto.

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2016, 03:56:29 PM »
Sanders, assuming that he reaches the full potential of how he's campaigning, he will also be working with a much more agreeable congress than Clinton will, since his coattails will be much longer.

scifibum

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2016, 04:01:01 PM »
I vote for Sanders.  TEA Party and Trump would be extremely destructive.  Clinton won't change a thing. 

Say Sanders wins.  If Trump isn't the GOP candidate then they probably maintain their majorities in Congress.  They don't let Sanders do anything, but he consistently calls them out on it.  Given Sanders' upset victory, there's a chance the DNC will start to get behind him for fear of being replaced with more progressive candidates, and if the message coheres then he might get a more sympathetic Congress after people are sick enough of their do-nothing reps to stay home and let the Dems win the following election.

If Trump IS the nominee, Sanders gets his sympathetic congress sooner.

Fenring

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2016, 04:18:24 PM »
Sanders. As with DW I'd rather fight for a good candidate and potentially lose than to settle for a candidate I hate with a slightly higher chance of 'winning.' What, exactly, would I be winning? A vote is power, and voting for status quo is not only sanctioning but empowering the status quo. Not for me. Incidentally I think Sanders would have a better shot against Trump than Hillary would. The best anti-Trump is the candidate who actually is the anti-Trump.

LetterRip

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2016, 05:26:35 PM »
Sanders,

for the reasons others have given.

JoshCrow

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2016, 05:41:09 PM »
Sanders as well.

Seriati

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2016, 06:35:10 PM »
Undecided, but I'd be shocked if I didn't vote for the Republican (only a possibility if Sanders is the nominee, I don't agree with anything he says, but he seems like the most respectable candidate left on either stage).

Greg Davidson

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2016, 07:20:31 PM »
Sanders if he had a better or equal chance of defeating the Republican (and 3rd party nominee, if any).

Fenring

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2016, 07:29:51 PM »
Sanders if he had a better or equal chance of defeating the Republican (and 3rd party nominee, if any).

Out of curiosity, what will settle this "if" for you? I know you like numerical analysis, but what kinds of metrics could quantify such a thing this early in the election cycle?

LetterRip

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2016, 09:18:06 PM »
If Kasich is nominated for the Republicans and Clinton for the Democrats - I'd seriously consider voting for Kasich.

Greg Davidson

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #13 on: March 14, 2016, 11:38:45 PM »
Quote
Out of curiosity, what will settle this "if" for you? I know you like numerical analysis, but what kinds of metrics could quantify such a thing this early in the election cycle?

I don't know how I will vote when the election gets around to California. I never would have thought that someone as left-wing as Sanders had a chance, but if Trump is the Republican I think that factors other than policy might drive the election and that Sanders could suffer a great deal of smearing and still squeek out a win.  I don't think that he would be able to get much done in terms of his agenda, but I'd bet that a Sanders win on election day would suddenly have Republicans in Congress cut a bunch of deals with Obama

JoshuaD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2016, 06:43:58 AM »
Of the four, I'd pick Senator Sanders.

It bothers me that he doesn't have a Federalist bone in his body, but he's a good man and a bright man. I disagree with him on some issues, but I like him and trust him more than any of the other three.

I still have to take a closer look at Senator Cruz. There are things I like about him, but there are a lot of things I don't like either.

Under no circumstance would I vote for either Secretary Clinton or Mr. Trump.

msquared

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2016, 08:55:13 AM »
If Kasich had a larger lead in today primary, I would vote for Bernie to give him an edge over Hillary.  However, I want to make sure Trump does not win, so Kasich.  Even my wife, who has voted democrat for the past 20 years, is going to vote for Kasich so that Trump does not win.

In the general, I am not sure.    I might vote for Bernie, for the reasons listed above, but that would depend on who the Republican candidate is.

msquared

TheDrake

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2016, 01:17:22 PM »
These guys are still running as libertarian party candidates, I'll probably vote for whoever wins. That's assuming that I vote at all. I'm changing states and I may be lax about my new registration.

If I were to choose from amongst the Republicans and Democrats, my list would go Sanders-Rubio-Clinton-Cruz-Trump.

I could not see giving Clinton, Cruz, or Trump my vote under any circumstances.

Sanders has integrity that the others lack, in my opinion. He isn't afraid to tell a truth that he knows some people won't like. I dislike his economic policy, particularly that against free trade. I'm not a fan of the "free college for everyone" plan. I like his defence of American privacy, emphasis on diplomacy rather than military action, and support for infrastructure spending. I like his plan to tax speculators engaging in high frequency computer trading, which I think does nothing to advance economic goals, sound investing, and adds risk of flash-crash instability.

I also kind of prefer that no one major party get control of the house, senate, and executive simultaneously.

JoshuaD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2016, 04:27:22 PM »
It's amazing to me how wide of an appeal Sanders has.

AI Wessex

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2016, 04:52:05 PM »
To be fair, Trump has also raised a widespread and unified response.

JoshuaD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2016, 07:33:53 PM »
That's not my experience. All of the people I know who like Trump fall into the same basic category: White Republicans who haven't spent much time studying politics, often in the lower or lower-middle class.

I understand there are others out there, but I think the vast majority of his supporters are in that category.

On the other hand, I see Senator Sanders pulling from those who are typically left-leaning (scifi, Josh, LR) and from those who are typically right leaning (myself, msquared, Pete, Fenring).

Although, my biggest shock is that you (AI Wessex) support Secretary Clinton. I would've bet a good amount of money on you being for Sanders.

TheDrake

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2016, 09:06:06 PM »
Trump just won Florida with 4 out of 10 of those with a college degree. In NH Trump had far and away more college grads than any other candidate and again about 40% of the total.

By contrast, he won 47% of people who didn't finish high school. Looks to me like a relatively minor skew. I think people who get interviewed about supporting him skew about 90%, however.

If you look at data by income, its also not very dramatic. In Florida, he pulled 46% of people making over 100k. Against 58% of under 50k. Trump also polls relatively high with Independents.


Gaoics79

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2016, 09:08:21 PM »
I don't usually care about a politician's personal characteristics, but Sanders comes across as just so damned honourable and sincere, it's hard not to want to see him succeed. I say that as someone who probably would disagree with 3/4 of his policies.

I'd also enjoy watching Trump win, partly for spite (his most vehement detractors are more detestable than he is) and partly out of sheer curiosity. Not overly noble motives, I'll concede.

JoshuaD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2016, 09:24:43 PM »
Sad day as far as I'm concerned. The two people who did well are the two people I like least. :(

AI Wessex

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #23 on: March 15, 2016, 10:22:01 PM »
Quote
That's not my experience. All of the people I know who like Trump fall into the same basic category: White Republicans who haven't spent much time studying politics, often in the lower or lower-middle class.
That was a joke.  He's managed to get most of the Tea Party aligned with Conservatives against him, not to mention all bloggers with at least a high school education.

Pete at Home

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2016, 12:42:09 AM »
That's not my experience. All of the people I know who like Trump fall into the same basic category: White Republicans who haven't spent much time studying politics, often in the lower or lower-middle class.

I understand there are others out there, but I think the vast majority of his supporters are in that category.

On the other hand, I see Senator Sanders pulling from those who are typically left-leaning (scifi, Josh, LR) and from those who are typically right leaning (myself, msquared, Pete, Fenring).

Although, my biggest shock is that you (AI Wessex) support Secretary Clinton. I would've bet a good amount of money on you being for Sanders.

Doesn't surprise me that Al or Greg D supports Hillary.  I reckon Tom D would as well, and I will be very surprised if Pyr sticks with Sanders; he has Clinton writ all over him.

JoshuaD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #25 on: March 16, 2016, 02:37:35 AM »
Quote
That's not my experience. All of the people I know who like Trump fall into the same basic category: White Republicans who haven't spent much time studying politics, often in the lower or lower-middle class.
That was a joke.  He's managed to get most of the Tea Party aligned with Conservatives against him, not to mention all bloggers with at least a high school education.

I do continue to be surprised at how much support he gathers.

He seems to be swinging to the middle now. It looks like he secured the crazy right as good as he can, so he's working on the middle.

It's scary how effective he is. He's very good at what he's doing.

I don't believe the rhetoric we've seen from him shows us the real man, which would normally comfort me a little. But everything I've seen from him belies a complete lack of a moral compass. I don't think the man we're seeing is what we'll get, but I don't think what's actually back there is much better.

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #26 on: March 16, 2016, 12:28:27 PM »
Doesn't surprise me that Al or Greg D supports Hillary.  I reckon Tom D would as well, and I will be very surprised if Pyr sticks with Sanders; he has Clinton writ all over him.
As in you're suggesting that I should write him in in the general and let Trumop take it to prove that I'm not defecting to Clinton?

I mean, I think Trump's narcissism and desire to be seen as the best there ever was will actually pull him back from the cliff that he's currently dancing on to take advantage of the divisiveness the GOP has trained its base to respond to, which puts him a little over Cruz who is a a true believer in it, but I'm not going to throw the election to him by voting Sanders or (at that point, Stein who at least will be on the ballot) in the general. The places where Sanders and I disagree put him closer to Clinton than me, I'm not going to go around him in the primary for a less desirable match or one that's far more vulnerable to Trump's game once he flips his campaign to recruit as many orphaned Sanders supporters as possible.

Unless he's actually out to throw the campaign to Clinton, he's well positioned to eat her lunch. She just looks safe because the media can't quite zoom out enough to pat attention to his strategy rather than the tactics he's applying when his targets are limited to the GOP base that's been pre-conditioned for decades to respond to his current show of authoritarianism.

Sanders can beat him at his own game, Clinton will be in trouble, never mind that she's far too conservative to do anything but mostly hold the line as she currently presents herself.

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #27 on: March 16, 2016, 12:30:42 PM »
I don't believe the rhetoric we've seen from him shows us the real man, which would normally comfort me a little. But everything I've seen from him belies a complete lack of a moral compass. I don't think the man we're seeing is what we'll get, but I don't think what's actually back there is much better.
Yeah, exactly. He's a genius at manipulation to the point of perhaps being a complete sociopath. It's frightening for reasons completely different than the act he's putting on. The main thing frightening about that is how well conditioned his audience is to respond to it.

Fenring

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #28 on: March 16, 2016, 12:46:55 PM »
Pyr, I was about to "like" your penultimate post but realized I was confused about your meaning. First you say you won't throw the election to Trump by voting for Sanders (or Stein) in the general, and later say that Sanders can beat Trump at his own game while Hillary would be in trouble against him. Can you clarify?

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #29 on: March 16, 2016, 12:53:13 PM »
Pyr, I was about to "like" your penultimate post but realized I was confused about your meaning. First you say you won't throw the election to Trump by voting for Sanders (or Stein) in the general, and later say that Sanders can beat Trump at his own game while Hillary would be in trouble against him. Can you clarify?
I won't throw it by _writing in_ Sanders in the general if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. (Something that I've seen people starting to advocate) I'll vote for Sanders in the Primary and pull for him to win to the extent of my ability to do so. But if Clinton takes it, even only because of superdelegate manipulation, then I'll vote for her in the general if that's what it takes to keep Trump from landing the job. I disagree with Clinton, but at least I know where she stands, I'm not willing to bet on a complete wildcard taht is nakedly only playing the game for self-aggrandizement.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #30 on: March 16, 2016, 02:32:17 PM »
I have a weird bubble effect going with Sanders. Almost everyone I see online seems to be supporting him and I don't think I've really seen anyone come out in full unequivocal support for Clinton, but she's winning pretty solidly. She must be doing better in the non-social media demographics but it looks really weird.

I had a stray thought that posited Clinton as the Establishment-Trump but I can't quite re-construct why I though that was clever.

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #31 on: March 16, 2016, 02:44:48 PM »
Social media gives the illusion of a wide field of people, but it's really a vary narrow and pretty biased sample. It's hard to get that because it's hard for us to really grasp just how many other people there really are out there.

NobleHunter

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #32 on: March 16, 2016, 02:48:00 PM »
Prolly doesn't help that my feeds are white af. And any non-white people are way left wing.

JoshuaD

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #33 on: March 16, 2016, 02:51:10 PM »
I have a weird bubble effect going with Sanders. Almost everyone I see online seems to be supporting him and I don't think I've really seen anyone come out in full unequivocal support for Clinton, but she's winning pretty solidly. She must be doing better in the non-social media demographics but it looks really weird.

I have the same bubble effect. I literally don't have one person in my facebook feed supporting Clinton. I think it's, in big part, an age thing.

Fenring

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #34 on: March 16, 2016, 02:54:41 PM »
I have a weird bubble effect going with Sanders. Almost everyone I see online seems to be supporting him and I don't think I've really seen anyone come out in full unequivocal support for Clinton, but she's winning pretty solidly. She must be doing better in the non-social media demographics but it looks really weird.

Clinton does well in certain demographics, none of which include young people. The online community skews towards younger ages hence why Sanders has overwhelming online support. Also worth noting is that a vote is an unqualified statement and does not brook detail. For instance, it would easily be possible for Sanders to be the more popular candidate and yet lose, since many people are hoodwinked by the media's claims that Sanders can't win. People believe that 'wasting' a vote on a losing candidate is a mistake, and if enough people are made to believe this it (strategically) becomes true. That's what we call magick with a k.

Another detail missing in a vote is how much the voter supports that candidate. Let's say, for instance, instead of a vote each voter simply scored a candidate on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the highest, and the winner was the person with the most points. The winner in such a contest might not be the winner in a "one vote" system where not voting for the other person gives them zero points. To date I've never met a staunch Hillary supporter, although I'm sure there are some out there. But for the sake of argument let's say that someone voting for her would give her a 5/10, and Bernie 3/10; and now let's say 10 people vote like this. Then let's say 8 people vote with 10/10 for Bernie and 1/10 for Clinton. Clinton wins the one-vote game, and Bernie by far wins the points game here, making him in a casual conversational sense the more popular candidate even though he loses in the current system. And I do, in fact, think this is the case, since many Bernie supporters tend to really believe in him and would love to see him govern, while Hillary supporters are no doubt distributed among those who outright support her, those who dislike her but see her as the best option, and those who feel they have no choice because to do otherwise risks a GOP presidency.

I also expect there is some amount of the standard election fraud going on (vote rigging and so forth), since I consider this to now be a standard practice wherever voting machines are used. Testimony before the senate made it clear that this is quite easy to accomplish and can't really be traced, and almost implied that it happens and there's nothing you can do about it.


Gaoics79

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #35 on: March 16, 2016, 07:59:11 PM »
Can we suck out Sanders' soul a la Shang Tsung and transplant it into Hillary's body? That would seem the ideal solution to the problem.

Pete at Home

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #36 on: March 16, 2016, 08:12:45 PM »
Doesn't surprise me that Al or Greg D supports Hillary.  I reckon Tom D would as well, and I will be very surprised if Pyr sticks with Sanders; he has Clinton writ all over him.
As in you're suggesting that I should write him in in the general

No, that's not what I'm suggesting that you do. What I said was something else entirely, and not any suggestion of how you should vote.  While there are things you say and do that I will never respect, I do fully respect (*censored*, man sometimes I outright ADMIRE you when you're consistent and honest about a controversial position where you have no allies at all!)  that your politics is different than mine.   What I meant was that I'd be surprised if you voted Sanders over Hillary in a primary, given how you fawned over the mobbers who gracelessly cornholed Sanders in on national television.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2016, 08:17:22 PM by Pete at Home »

Greg Davidson

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #37 on: March 17, 2016, 12:21:22 AM »
Quote
Doesn't surprise me that Al or Greg D supports Hillary

Pete, if you saw my post above, I did not say that I supported Hillary. I still am not certain who I will vote for. I have spent a lot of time defending Clinton, because she has be subject to far more unjustified attacks than Sanders

AI Wessex

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #38 on: March 17, 2016, 01:08:00 AM »
Quote
What I meant was that I'd be surprised if you voted Sanders over Hillary in a primary, given how you fawned over the mobbers who gracelessly cornholed Sanders in on national television.
You never give up making gratuitous insults and crude comments as if those things somehow enhance your status as a deep thinker.  In fact, as other posters have also pointed out, you're becoming a distraction, even an embarrassment.

OrneryMod

  • Administrator
  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #39 on: March 17, 2016, 01:24:12 AM »
AI and Pete: Stop it.

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #40 on: March 17, 2016, 11:36:02 AM »
   What I meant was that I'd be surprised if you voted Sanders over Hillary in a primary, given how you fawned over the mobbers who gracelessly cornholed Sanders in on national television.
Except I'm not. I'm just not willing to judge and castigate them the way you are. There's a wide middle ground between fawning over someone and vilifying them. I refuse to vilify and try to put in the effort needed to understand the wider context of things that I might, in the immediate moment, find distasteful, no matter how abusive you get in your seeming insistence that everyone must be completely with you or completely against you.

Gary238

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #41 on: March 17, 2016, 05:01:30 PM »
Sanders. He has a rare sincerity, and is really pushing for a government that serves it's people. Doesn't hurt that I agree with a lot of his proposed policy, but that's actually secondary to my evaluation of his character.
I want to know who the running mates are, though, because I fear that any effective agent of change might be at real risk of assassination.

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #42 on: March 17, 2016, 05:07:19 PM »
I'm not as interested in the VPs as I am in who their staff/cabinet will be in areas that they're weaker. Who will Sanders look to for Sec of State, who will Clinton favor for the Treasury, Comptroller of hte Currency, SEC, etc...

Some sign that Trump's cabinet isn't going to be a room full of severed heads of his opponents that he turns to for advice when talking to himself doesn't get him anywhere...

Fenring

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #43 on: March 17, 2016, 05:27:06 PM »
Some sign that Trump's cabinet isn't going to be a room full of severed heads of his opponents that he turns to for advice when talking to himself doesn't get him anywhere...

You're not by any chance a Babylon 5 fan, are you? :)

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #44 on: March 17, 2016, 05:34:22 PM »
Seems as amusing a parallel as any ;).

Wayward Son

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #45 on: March 17, 2016, 05:39:50 PM »
Sounds more like The Walking Dead to me.  ("Hey, gov'nor, whacha got in your back room there?" :) )

Pete at Home

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #46 on: March 17, 2016, 05:49:53 PM »
   What I meant was that I'd be surprised if you voted Sanders over Hillary in a primary, given how you fawned over the mobbers who gracelessly cornholed Sanders in on national television.
Except I'm not. I'm just not willing to judge and castigate them the way you are. There's a wide middle ground between fawning over someone and vilifying them..

I absolutely agree. Most ornerians fall into that middle ground.  You do not, since you actually did fawn over her.  But that's an argument for another thread. You asked what i meant and as usual cast me as having some hateful reasoning, so i set the record straiight.  I dont expect you to write sanders in.  I just dont expect you to vote him over hillary.

AI Wessex

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #47 on: March 17, 2016, 06:05:24 PM »
Caligula and his horse come to mind for me.

Pyrtolin

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #48 on: March 17, 2016, 06:06:33 PM »
Sounds more like The Walking Dead to me.  ("Hey, gov'nor, whacha got in your back room there?" :) )
There was an explicit scene in B5 where the Emperor of one of the races went into his "council chamber" which was a room with the heads of all of his advisors that he'd executed for displeasing him.

Pete at Home

  • Members
    • View Profile
Re: Election Day
« Reply #49 on: March 17, 2016, 06:15:37 PM »
For those who care for actual historical reference, idi amin dada kept his enemies heads in his refrigerator and would take the mout for a chat now and then.