NATO meeting in Brussels today. Supposed to be discussing improving air defenses for Ukraine.
So the Russian retaliation for the Kerch Bridge hit was all missile attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets in Kyiv or elsewhere (as far as I can tell). The analyis has been that this has been costly, since these are Russia's top of the line cruise missiles. Not sure exactly what kind, havn't seen it identified. One story says half a billion $ in ordnance, like 120+ cruise missiles over two days. Of course, one has to remember that the price on these missiles has probably dropped with the value of the ruble. Something to remember that after the war is finally over, Russia is going to be back in the business of selling cheap advanced weaponry to the rest of the world, at an even bigger discount, unless something major happens. Sure, a Kalibr missile used to be worth $6.5 million. But next year it will probably be worth 150 bucks. Maybe you can have a T-90 tank for your own garage.
On top of this, I understand by looking at some air activity maps, that Russia's primary attack plane focus has been on the Kherson front. It tells me that Crimea is indeed where the Russians are deathly afraid of losing.
So, given that the Ukrainians couldn't get their hands on F-16s, yet, the new focus has been on getting them some NATO air defense artillery. These are the kinds of things that previously everyone was all "it would take too long to train them", and "we're talking about high end top secret technology". I think the "it would take too long to train them" thing is dying, considering that it looks like everyone is prepping for a winter campaign. Still don't know if jets are on the table, but since MLRSs have been provided, I imagine ADA is the latest "just the tip" game with Russia.
The Germans, surprisingly, have been the first to provide IRIS-T air defense systems. Not sure if it was the short or medium range missiles that were given, but to be clear, the IRIS-T is really not built to hit anything hard to kill. It's a heat seeker best used on attack craft, meaning it will be useful around Kherson, but not so useful in stopping cruise missiles and definitely useless against ballistic missiles.
So the meeting seems to be about getting everyone on board to OK giving over some Patriot missile batteries to Ukriane. Problem is that they're rare as unicorns. The reliance on air superiority in NATO countries has led to a kind of dearth of ADA. The places that have an abundance of ADA and are really good at it are also places that need to keep them, Israel and Taiwan.
In the meanwhile, Russia having to lash out with its dwindling supply of cruise missiles indicates, again, that the Russians are running out of options on the ground. Indications continue to show that the Russian Army is now out of ability to attack, having been bled near dry in terms of blood and supplies through the year. Indications continue to show, in the form of drone and satellite photography, that the Russians are focusing on digging in again. The Ukrainian counter-offensives seem to be slowing down and are methodical instead of blazing.