Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка

[Grant]

Putin is likely a psychopath

I'm not going to psychoanalyze world leaders except to draw obvious conclusions from particular actions.  I'm not a psychiatrist or a psychologist.  I imagine that the IC has some of these people on their payroll to make these assessments and that world leaders are able to read them and come up with their own assessments after meeting him. 

That being said, some dude on Quora did an analysis using something called a Hare Psychopathy Test. 

https://www.quora.com/Is-Vladimir-Putin-a-high-functioning-high-IQ-psychopath

Let’s do it scientifically and apply The Hare Psychopathy Checklist:

Do you have "excess glibness" or superficial charm? No, Putin is not really charming. But he tries to sometimes. So, “maybe”.
Do you have a grandiose sense of self-worth? Yes, Putin certainly has that now. But it makes sense for a world leader. There is no indication that he had that before. He actually never strived to become a ruler of Russia. He was appointed, really. So, “maybe”.
Do you have an excessive need for stimulation or proneness to boredom? Yes, Putin is always busy, with state affairs or other things. He also likes to try new things publicly. New sports, for example.
Are you a pathological liar? Putin is a former spy, a former security official, and a politician. So, the answer is yes.
Are you conning or manipulative? Same thing. Obviously yes.
Do you display a lack of remorse or guilt? Yes, Putin is not really remorseful or guilt-ridden. At least, not in public.
Do you have "shallow affect"? Yes, Putin has that sometimes. Although, he is also known to show true and deep emotions. For example, he was pretty devastated when his former martial arts coach died.
Are you callous, or do you lack empathy? Yes, Putin is known for callous jokes. Empathy is not easy for him.
Do you have a "parasitic lifestyle"? No, Putin has successfully worked for living pretty much all of his adult life.
Do you have poor behavioral controls? No, Putin has decent self-control. Not perfect. but decent.
Do you have a history of promiscuous sexual behavior? No, Putin has nothing like that. Even rumors about his sex life are exceedingly bland.
Do you have a history of early behavioral problems? Yes, he was a handful as a child. Despite being relatively small and weak. But not too much of a handful. So, “maybe”.
Do you lack realistic long-term goals? Yes, his early goal in life was becoming a spy. That was clearly not realistic and movie-inspired. He admits it himself. But he was able to achieve his goal. So, “maybe”.
Are you overly impulsive? Unlikely. Once again, Putin has decent self-control.
Do you have a high level of irresponsibility? Putin is a Russian politician, so the answer is “yes”.
Do you fail to accept responsibility for your own actions? That one is complicated. Putin likes to blame others, but he also accepts responsibility from time to time. Let’s say “maybe”.
Have you had many short-term "marital" relationships? Obviously no.
Do you have a history of juvenile delinquency? Yes, he has. Not hardcore, though. He was never caught, prosecuted or even investigated as a child.
Have you ever experienced a "revocation of conditional release"? No, Putin was never imprisoned.
Do you display "criminal versatility"? Yes, Putin is versatile in breaking official norms and international rules.
So, Putin is 21/40 (“no” is 0, “yes” is 2, “maybe” is 1). This is high, but not psychopathically high. You need to be at least 30/40 to be considered a psychopath. Still, Putin’s result is worrying.

I'm curious if the KGB would have let a psychopath through their psych assessments. 

[rightleft22]

Russia will likely be better off with their gains in Ukraine so long as Russia can keep it limited. It might take a decade or more to get a solid "ROI" though.

I don't see it. Even if Putin 'wins' the war I don't see Russia and her peoples better off. I know Russia is leaning hard on China to make up for any loses but I don't see how that doesn't end up with them a play thing of China. Russia losses by wining

[NobleHunter]

I'm curious if the KGB would have let a psychopath through their psych assessments.

I would assume the KGB, as with other unpleasant organizations, would actively recruit psychopaths.

[rightleft22]

For the past few years Putin state media has pushed the story that Ukraine has opened concentration camps to murder Russian speaking citizens
Apparently 60% of the population believes this to be true ...

I wonder how many of the things I believe are true are... how 'crazy' factors into that. Who is crazy the one doing the gaslighting or the one gaslit?

[Grant]

Russia allowed to compete in Eurovision contest.  LOL.  I mean, how can you take Europe seriously sometimes?  I suppose they'll be at the World Cup and Olympics too.  Jupiter's Rooster. 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/entertainment/eurovision-russia/index.html

Gotta respect how Zelenskyy has gone to wearing army beige T-shirts in press conferences. 

I see some talk about Kiev falling eventually, a new government set up, and transitioning to a resistance fight.  I don't think it's going to work.  I think support for Ukraine is going to completely dry up once the government is decapitated and the remaining Ukrainian units will either flee across the border or surrender and wind up in some Siberian prison camp.  I think at that point the rest of Europe is going to be preoccupied in trying to calm down the Baltic states and Eastern European NATO countries, while the rest of them try to go back to business and usual.

I think the window of opportunity is closing and I think it is tragic.  Because things could have been done but were not. 

[NobleHunter]

The best way to reassure the Baltic states would be to keep sending weapons to Ukraine. If the invasion fails whether next week, next year, or in the next decade, Russia won't be invading anyone else for the foreseeable future.

[Grant]

The best way to reassure the Baltic states would be to keep sending weapons to Ukraine. If the invasion fails whether next week, next year, or in the next decade, Russia won't be invading anyone else for the foreseeable future.

There may not be anyone to send weapons to in Ukraine in a week or two. 

As to how soon Russia could be threatening anyone else, it's not just a matter of their army having to regroup, resupply, reman, and retrain.  It's also a matter that Russia will have knocked off the largest army in Eastern Europe.  Nearly twice the size of the next largest, Poland, and sure larger than the entire Baltic States combined.  They are using 75% of their Army for this.  One assumes they could take Poland and the Baltics with only 40-50%.  They don't even need to launch and invasion.  They simply need to forward deploy, just like they did around Ukraine since December, and blame NATO for building up on their borders. 

[Grant]

Best map. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UkraineCoTFeb24%2C2022.png

A little dated.  I believe the Russians have expanded further south on the west bank of Dnieper and have launched an amphibious assault near Mariupol. 

[rightleft22]

Their has been talk of Ukraine being like Afghanistan and Iraq - hard to hold once occupied but I don't think that's going to be the case- Totally different environments and peoples

Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is

[NobleHunter]

There may not be anyone to send weapons to in Ukraine in a week or two. 

As to how soon Russia could be threatening anyone else, it's not just a matter of their army having to regroup, resupply, reman, and retrain.  It's also a matter that Russia will have knocked off the largest army in Eastern Europe.  Nearly twice the size of the next largest, Poland, and sure larger than the entire Baltic States combined.  They are using 75% of their Army for this.  One assumes they could take Poland and the Baltics with only 40-50%.  They don't even need to launch and invasion.  They simply need to forward deploy, just like they did around Ukraine since December, and blame NATO for building up on their borders. 

I think that's an overly pessimistic view. Ukraine has been planning for its inability to beat Russia in the field since at least 2014. I doubt Russia will be able to declare mission accomplished any time soon. A lot of their troops are going to be bogged down in COIN for a long time.

[Grant]

Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is

Well, it's pretty easy when Pakistan and Russia are not arming and funding a resistance. 

[rightleft22]

Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is

Well, it's pretty easy when Pakistan and Russia are not arming and funding a resistance.

Going to be much harder for the west to keep arming the resistance

[NobleHunter]

Now imagine US and assorted members of the EU supporting a resistance. Russia has almost certainly bitten off more than it can chew.

Going to be much harder for the west to keep arming the resistance

Why?

[rightleft22]

I would think it was pretty easy crossing into Afghanistan.
How will the west get the weapons into the hands of the resistance?

[NobleHunter]

Ukraine's got a bunch of friendly countries on its western borders. If Ukraine has done any planning for a resistance, they've already set up means to receive weapons from friendly sources. It also depends on how far and how quickly Russia gets to that border. 

[Grant]

I think that's an overly pessimistic view. Ukraine has been planning for its inability to beat Russia in the field since at least 2014. I doubt Russia will be able to declare mission accomplished any time soon. A lot of their troops are going to be bogged down in COIN for a long time.

I understand this assessment but I disagree with it, and I'll say why.

Once the Ukrainian government falls, and the Ukrainian army is eventually ground down and basically fades into the countryside or flees into Poland or Romania, nobody is going to really want to keep support bases or keep supplying them from their territory because it will invite invasion by Russia.  That includes any remaining government in exile, if Zelenskyy survives, which I would bet against. 

As RL said, it's harder to supply a resistance on a European border as compared to the 1000s of miles of mountainous wilderness that was Afghanistan-Pakistan, or the 1000s of miles of jungle that was South Vietnam-Laos-Cambodia.  The Viet Cong and the Taliban always had Pakistan or Laos to run to.  Poland and Romania probably are not going to want to have resistance fighters going in and out of their borders, and Russia is going to lock the border down tight.  I don't think it will happen.  As I said, the war will probably be over in a week or so, after Kiev falls.  The Russians have not even gone all out yet.  They've been holding back to limit civilian casualties. 

I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out. 

[Grant]

Ukraine's got a bunch of friendly countries on its western borders. If Ukraine has done any planning for a resistance, they've already set up means to receive weapons from friendly sources. It also depends on how far and how quickly Russia gets to that border.

That friendship is going to rapidly decrease when the Russians are on that border and the Ukrainians don't have much of an army left to fight the Russians.  People like Germany and the UK and France might still be sympathetic, but they will not be in a position to do much because of geography. 

[NobleHunter]

I understand this assessment but I disagree with it, and I'll say why.

Once the Ukrainian government falls, and the Ukrainian army is eventually ground down and basically fades into the countryside or flees into Poland or Romania, nobody is going to really want to keep support bases or keep supplying them from their territory because it will invite invasion by Russia.  That includes any remaining government in exile, if Zelenskyy survives, which I would bet against. 

As RL said, it's harder to supply a resistance on a European border as compared to the 1000s of miles of mountainous wilderness that was Afghanistan-Pakistan, or the 1000s of miles of jungle that was South Vietnam-Laos-Cambodia.  The Viet Cong and the Taliban always had Pakistan or Laos to run to.  Poland and Romania probably are not going to want to have resistance fighters going in and out of their borders, and Russia is going to lock the border down tight.  I don't think it will happen.  As I said, the war will probably be over in a week or so, after Kiev falls.  The Russians have not even gone all out yet.  They've been holding back to limit civilian casualties. 

I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out.

Poland will likely do everything it can to make Russia's life a living hell. Beating the Russians in Ukraine is much better for them fight Russia in Poland.

And there's no way Russia is going to attack a NATO member until Ukraine is pacified. They can host resistance fighters much more openly than Pakistan or Iran could. It's where the escalation argument turns around to bite Russia in the ass. NATO can't intervene directly in Ukraine because it would force them to engage targets in Russia or Belarus but at the same time, Russia can't pursue targets into Poland no matter how much it wants to.

[Grant]

Russian Navy in Black Sea attacking Japanese and Moldovan shipping.  Hit a Turkish ship yesterday.  Does this count as "trade interests" for the United States?  Will this change anyone's calculus?  I doubt it. 

https://splash247.com/two-more-ships-hit-in-the-black-sea/

[Grant]

And there's no way Russia is going to attack a NATO member until Ukraine is pacified. They can host resistance fighters much more openly than Pakistan or Iran could. It's where the escalation argument turns around to bite Russia in the ass. NATO can't intervene directly in Ukraine because it would force them to engage targets in Russia or Belarus but at the same time, Russia can't pursue targets into Poland no matter how much it wants to.

LOL.  They don't really have to.  They simply have to threaten it.  Look around and see what is happening.  NATO is doing everything it can to AVOID a war with Russia.  They are responding to the Russian threats.  They won't invite Russian attacks or invasions. 

For 14 years people have been saying "Russia won't do this".  They wouldn't invade Georgia.  They wouldn't invade Crimea.  They wouldn't invade Ukraine.  They did.  Now it's "they won't attack a NATO country". 

You might indeed be right and that there is enough people that believe that would be crossing a line, but would you blame Russia and Pooter for making that miscalculation?  But I don't believe that Poland or Romania would do anything that would be seen as inviting it.  It's easy to feel that way from the UK or US.  But it's different when you're sitting on the ground in Poland or Romania. 

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid this is what would happen. 

[yossarian22c]

Russian Navy in Black Sea attacking Japanese and Moldovan shipping.  Hit a Turkish ship yesterday.  Does this count as "trade interests" for the United States?  Will this change anyone's calculus?  I doubt it. 

https://splash247.com/two-more-ships-hit-in-the-black-sea/

Remember the Lusitania?

[Grant]

Remember the Lusitania?

I think the public response was due to Lusitania being primarily a passenger ship and a hundred+ Americans were on board.  But by all means, if hitting cargo vessels is what it takes to wake people up. 

[NobleHunter]

LOL.  They don't really have to.  They simply have to threaten it.  Look around and see what is happening.  NATO is doing everything it can to AVOID a war with Russia.  They are responding to the Russian threats.  They won't invite Russian attacks or invasions. 

For 14 years people have been saying "Russia won't do this".  They wouldn't invade Georgia.  They wouldn't invade Crimea.  They wouldn't invade Ukraine.  They did.  Now it's "they won't attack a NATO country". 

You might indeed be right and that there is enough people that believe that would be crossing a line, but would you blame Russia and Pooter for making that miscalculation?  But I don't believe that Poland or Romania would do anything that would be seen as inviting it.  It's easy to feel that way from the UK or US.  But it's different when you're sitting on the ground in Poland or Romania. 

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm afraid this is what would happen.

I just don't see the people who are next on Putin's list offering no material support to Ukraine. They aren't right now because the risk of a direct confrontation is too high. Once the open fighting is over, there's going to be a lot more opportunities to screw Russia over without risking an all-out shooting war.

[rightleft22]

Once the open fighting is over, there's going to be a lot more opportunities to screw Russia over without risking an all-out shooting war.

Putin playing by his own rules and has been pretty successful at it

Take Ukraine only calling up reserves and such after the fact of the invasion. I hope they were preparing behind the scenes but suspect they couldn't do so openly as Putin would use that as a excuse and proof of Ukraine aggression. (they really were in a no win) 
I suspect Poland and the other countries boarding Ukraine want to screw Russia but they are going have to be very carful playing the game were Putin gets to change the rules as he see fit.

Putin's reality is the only one that matters. Amazing how one man can have this mush influence over the world.

One of the richest man in the world and this is what he does - what's the point. Like all game of thrones the ending is always disappointing and the only thing that changes is a lot of people (cannon fodder) dying for nothing real. 

[Grant]

Russia threatens Finland after the Finnish PM says the discussion over Finland joining NATO will be changing, despite promising that Finland would not join during her term and that joining NATO would possibly have repercussions. 

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-military-repurcussions-finland-nato-163803214.html

Massive explosion in Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1497248635603623999?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

McCaffrey says logistical support is too late.  Criticizes decision to abandon US embassy in Kiev. 

https://twitter.com/mccaffreyr3/status/1497260539495346176?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

1st BDE 3ID ordered from Ft Stewart Georgia to Germany. 

[NobleHunter]

If Finland wants to present NATO membership as a fait accompli, now would be the time to do it. Even if Ukraine surrenders tomorrow, it would be months if not a year before Russia could take any direct action against Finland.

[TheDrake]

I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out.

Nobody had much trouble getting arms into Northern Ireland.

[rightleft22]

I hate to say it, I don't want it to happen, but I think it will.  I'd love to be wrong.  Even if we're just talking about guys sneaking around at night with rifles and then going back home, they're going to run out of bullets and somebody is eventually going to rat them out.

Nobody had much trouble getting arms into Northern Ireland.

I wonder how that would go today with modern surveillance capabilities?

Still I guess if their is a will their is a way... I wonder about the will as the consequences of Russia catching those involved could be used as a excuse for who knows what actions

[Grant]

Nobody had much trouble getting arms into Northern Ireland.

1.  That's because they shipped them into the Republic of Ireland and then walked or drove them across the border.  Even then, it wasn't exactly easy. 

2.  An insurgency in Northern Ireland isn't an insurgency in Ukraine. 

3. Geography.  A lot bigger.

4. Different enemy.  British Army and Irish Provos are not the Russian Army and the FSB. 

5. Jeezus.  I really don't want the Ukrainian resistance turning into the IRA.  I wouldn't wish that on anybody. 

[TheDrake]

I don't want a URA either, I'm just saying that I don't think smuggling arms across rural borders with Poland is significantly different from the Irish border. Assuming that the Poles aren't trying to prevent it much from their side. If there is a resistance in Ukraine, it probably looks more like the Basque ETA than the IRA.

[Grant]

Always one of the best daily briefings out there. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-ukraine-warning-update-russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2022

These guys are pretty good at telling what is happening. Maybe not great at figuring out what is going to happen next, but it's not always easy playing Carnac the Magnificent.  I generally agree with their reasoning but they and I have been wrong before. 

Key Takeaways

Russian forces entered the outskirts of Kyiv on the west bank of the Dnipro on February 25. Russian sabotage groups in civilian clothes are reportedly active in downtown Kyiv.
Russian forces have so far failed to enter Kyiv’s eastern outskirts. Ukrainian forces have successfully slowed Russian troops, which have temporarily abandoned the failed attempt to take the city of Chernihiv and are instead bypassing it.
Elements of the Russian 76th VDV (Airborne) division have concentrated in southeastern Belarus likely for use along the Chernihiv-bypass axis toward Kyiv in the next 24 hours.
Russian forces will likely envelop Kharkhiv in the next 24 hours after failing to enter the city through frontal assaults on February 24.
Russian forces have achieved little success on frontal assaults or envelopments against Ukrainian forces in Donbas but may not have intended to do more than pin Ukrainian forces in the east.
North of Crimea, Russian forces fully captured Kherson and are likely on the verge of seizing Melitopol in the east. Unconfirmed reports indicate that Russian forces had bypassed Kherson earlier and headed directly for Mykolaiv and Odessa.
Russian forces may be assembling in Stolin, Belarus, to open a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.

Immediate items to watch

Social media users observed a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25.[29] These forces could potentially conduct a new line of advance against Rivne in western Ukraine.
Russian Naval Infantry have not yet conducted amphibious landings but retain the capability to do so against the Odesa or the Azov Sea coasts or both.
Russian forces continue to refrain from using their likely full spectrum of air and missile capabilities. The Ukrainian air force also remains active. Russian operations will likely steadily wear down Ukrainian air capabilities and eventually take the Ukrainian air force out of the fight.
Russian forces have not yet attempted the decapitation strike several analysts and outlets have forecasted and may attempt to do so in the near future.
Russia has sufficient conventional military power to reinforce each of its current axes of advance and overpower the conventional Ukrainian forces defending them.

[rightleft22]

Current headlines in Russian papers

- West was covering up crimes of Kiev regime that led to Ukraine’s tragedy, Lavrov says
- Ukrainian extremists lynching, pogroming conscripts who lay down arms — Russian top brass
- Russia wants all peoples of Ukraine to freely determine their destiny — Lavrov
- Russian army’s main clashes in Ukraine are with neo-Nazis - Putin[/li][/list]

[LetterRip]

Putin is likely a psychopath

[...]
That being said, some dude on Quora did an analysis using something called a Hare Psychopathy Test. 

Yes this is the standard tool used in criminology for determining criminal psychopathy and are to help predict recidivism rate.  The questions can be broken down into two subgroups - Factor 1 psychopathy - which corresponds well to the psychological construct of psychopathy (and more recently 'malignant narcissism'); and Factor 2 psychopathy - which corresponds well to poor impulse control (and the diagnosis of anti-social personality disorder).  The "no's" for Putin are almost all Factor 2 (Parasitic lifestyle; poor behavioral control; promiscuous; impulsive) - they really aren't relevant to psychopathy - but are good predictors of recidivism (poor impulse control combined with psychopathy makes someone extremely likely to re-offend; psychopaths without poor impulse control only engage in crime based on their evaluation of risk vs payoff, but with poor impulse control are less likely to evaluate risks).

I'm curious if the KGB would have let a psychopath through their psych assessments.

They tend to be extremely common in the intelligence services, including our own.  Non-impulsive psychopaths make superb agents, but there is one major risk - they are incapable of loyalty, and thus are perfectly willing to sell out their own country for the right incentive.

Also until fairly recently (past 10 years or so), they were extremely difficult to spot using standard testing.

[Fenring]

Just one thing to bear in mind about Putin, we don't know what his actual personality traits are. We know how he presents in public, and that's about it. From TV alone we can't tell whether he has empathy or not, or has grandiosity, or any of the other traits. From his interviews he's obviously capable as presenting as very confident, and can be charming if he wants, but as with most 'celebrities' what you're seeing is a public persona. Same goes with actors ranging from Tom Cruise to the classic starlets, you are seeing a product on display, not a person. They are always 'working' when in public, which is probably exhausting but you don't know what they're really like just from their public appearances. It's not that hard to do this and isn't a sign of psychopathy. Basically I don't know that I can be sure of anything about Putin other than what he does.

[Grant]

They tend to be extremely common in the intelligence services, including our own.  Non-impulsive psychopaths make superb agents

Mmmmhmmm. 

[TheDeamon]

Russia will likely be better off with their gains in Ukraine so long as Russia can keep it limited. It might take a decade or more to get a solid "ROI" though.

I don't see it. Even if Putin 'wins' the war I don't see Russia and her peoples better off. I know Russia is leaning hard on China to make up for any loses but I don't see how that doesn't end up with them a play thing of China. Russia losses by wining

Unless China provides a basis for "the west" to "make a deal with the devil(Putin)" while they deal with China.

[TheDeamon]

Their has been talk of Ukraine being like Afghanistan and Iraq - hard to hold once occupied but I don't think that's going to be the case- Totally different environments and peoples

Should not forget that the Taliban force of 70,00 (many outsiders) is doing just fine dominating the population of Afghanistan. Maybe not the same kind of occupation but sort of is

Safe bet the Russians will not be a "soft touch" like the US was in Iraq and Afghanistan. That changes things considerably on its own. Throw in cultural differences and I think you pretty much have the long and short of it. Chechnya demonstrates Russia does have problems with resistance fighters, but most of those were Islamic fighters as well, IIRC. Ukraine doesn't have the jihadists to fall back on.

[TheDeamon]

Russian Navy in Black Sea attacking Japanese and Moldovan shipping.  Hit a Turkish ship yesterday.  Does this count as "trade interests" for the United States?  Will this change anyone's calculus?  I doubt it. 

https://splash247.com/two-more-ships-hit-in-the-black-sea/

Depends on if Japan or Turkey want to invoke the mutual defense clause of their respective nations. Turkey being a NATO member certainly makes it spicey. But they'll likely try diplomatic options instead if the Iran-Iraq war of the 80's are any indicator.

Although if Russia hits more Turkish ships they certainly risk Turkey ratifying UNCLOS which is the absolute last thing Russia wants... That would mean US Carrier Battlegroups in the Black Sea. Currently the US cannot legally enter the Black Sea with a Carrier, or more than a couple destroyers at a time.

[Grant]

Senior British Conservative MPs call for No Fly Zone over Ukraine. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/davis-ellwood-nato-russia-ukraine-b2022259.html

Former cabinet minister David Davis warned that if Nato does not act immediately by offering air support to Ukraine's troops, the country will be defeated "in a matter of days".

And the chair of the Commons Defence Committee, Tobias Ellwood, said Western powers must assist Kyiv with military options including offensive weapons systems and a no-fly zone.

General Wesley Clark, former SACEUR, writes editorial supporting no fly zone.

https://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/ny-oped-who-putin-really-is-20220225-6gcvrti6uzf4ngttpz33x4i2ay-story.html

Even more than the lives of 40 million people are on the line. NATO itself is less defensible if Ukraine is occupied by a hostile power. The Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — are possible next targets. Ukrainian resistance will weaken Russia’s threat to these democracies. And if Russia gains Ukraine’s technical capabilities and resources, it poses an even greater threat to NATO. From the sidelines China is watching, calculating U.S. courage and resolve. Ukraine’s fight is thus our fight, too.

The best course of action is to demand Russia halt and establish a safe zone over Kyiv and in the western part of the country. This would have to be declared and enforced by the United States. The UN should back this.

Goes on CNN to defend the argument.  Also supported by former SACEUR General George Joulwan who said the same thing on CNN last night. 


Congressman Adam Kinzinger then goes on CNN and Twitter to also support the idea. 

[LetterRip]

Here is a perspective on the invasion from the perspective of someone living in Russia,

Today, in my office, two guys gloated over graphic images of two dead Ukrainian women killed in the apartment block from Russian attack helicopter fire.

“It’s our revenge for what you did in Donbas!” a law school graduate and head of R & D department announced gleefully. The other voiced his full support.

Under any other circumstances, two nice, intelligent guys.

The whole two employees feel ashamed of the invasion of Ukraine carried out by the Russian Army. The rest, or about 80%, have slid into new reality and became complacent with the new normal. My co-workers huddle in the kitchen to watch “victory after victory in Ukraine” news and applaud Putin’s army.

They won’t be taking to the streets to protest invasion even if safety from police brutality was guaranteed.

Westerners are under false impression that Russians hanker for the liberation from the kleptocratic regime. Nothing could be further from the truth. On a deep level, Russians understand that the regime is all they have to hold this country together, and many cling to propaganda because it gives them a sense of purpose and belonging.

Without the regime and propaganda, Russians have no higher goal, no national unity, no binding forces to keep tens of millions of people in the same union across one seventh world’s terrain.

Journalist and author Alexander Nevzorov wrote in his Instagram account today:

“In the last twenty years, Russia has been busy with absolutely nothing except for making rockets, tanks, bombs, propaganda, military parades and flaunting its own military might. A Cult of Stalin has come to fruition…everything in Russia has worked towards war and its accessories. Everything else life-related was abandoned. Within the womb of Russia a perfect war machine grew.”

Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov declared, “Ukrainians released from oppression will be free to choose their future.”

He claims exactly the opposite of what president Zelenovsky said: that it’s the Russian oppression that doesn't let Ukrainians choose their future.

Kremlin madmen who fell for their own propaganda unlikely will stop with ‘liberation’ of Ukraine. They’ll march on to grab more land in short time.

Make no mistake, Russian regime is the Nazis of the 21st century. They’ve spent eight eight years preparing for the world war.

And do not ask yourself why people are not protesting in Russia.

Russians are NOT AWARE what transformation has happened to them, because changes had dragged on for almost a decade. The new normal gradually has grown on them.

Do you think Nazi army soldiers saw themselves as those heartless, brain-dead storm troopers from films about World War Two and their supreme leader as the embodiment of evil?

No!

Everything Nazi soldiers did was completely normal to them. Exactly, like in Russia of the 21st century, where people had spent years being pummelled with war propaganda, and going to war is a cathartic release from the psychological pressure cookie.

The West is trying to scare Russian regime with new sanctions?

Pleeeease.

These men and women are rebuilding Soviet Empire in real time. The higher purpose beats bank account freezes by a long stretch.

It’s too late for sanctions now, and honestly, they had never worked. Russians are accustomed to suffering on almost inhuman scale, and the regime has kept receiving billions of dollars for their luxury lifestyle.

Putin’s regime knows they are war criminals and they might have decided that the best strategy is to take as many with them as they can.

Things are unraveling and fast.

Don’t hold it against Russians. If not them, it would be some other people and country. Fascism never goes away. Ever.

Russians were weakened and I WAS here in the 1990s and I cannot describe what a psychologically dreadful and devastating era it was.

The weakened people allowed a virus of fascism to creep in and take hold. Slowly but surely, they succumbed to its dark power.

Moscow is Berlin of the 21st century.

With a caveat: high tech technologies. And Russians are damn good at this stuff. Bloody good.

Expect a twenty first century resistance.

https://www.quora.com/Why-is-it-that-the-Russians-are-not-protesting-against-Putin-for-going-to-war-with-Ukraine/answer/Misha-Firer

[TheDeamon]

From the little reporting I've bothered to pay attention to apart from what I'm getting on a handful of forums and chats. It seems to me that either the Russians are holding back "their good stuff" or "their good stuff" isn't that good. At least when compared to what the Americans are playing around with.

It they think they've built themselves an unstoppable military juggernaut, they're probably going to have a very rude awakening when they try to use it against NATO and US Forces who will be using the latest and greatest military tech available. The Ukranians are putting up a pretty good fight, and they're not using the top of the line stuff expressly because of concerns about Russians capturing it.

The silver lining in this, however, is that if the Russians are using the best they have available.. That bodes well where a potential conflict with China is concerned, given much of China military tech and military doctrines came from the Russians.

I guess in that respect, China has to be pushing behind the scenes to get NATO and Russia to start shooting at each other so the PLA can get a better feel for what they might be going up against when they move on Taiwan. If the Americans managed to shred the Russian forces they go up against, that probably would cause the Taiwan invasion plans to get scrubbed post haste.

[Grant]

Too much going on.  Too much happening to keep up with everything and I'm busy at work anyways. 

Key is that Ukraine is still holding on.  Kyiv hasn't fallen yet.  Zelenskyy is still alive.  Ukrainians are appearing more confident and determined.  Russia still has supposedly not even brought up 50% of it's forces yet, so the fighting is not over.  Ukrainian Air Force is still flying (by some miracle).  The populace is going to full mobilization.  Russians may get dirty as it becomes more difficult to tell who is and who is not a combatant since the general populace does not have uniforms.  You'll see more civilian casualties because the line between civilian and combatant in Ukraine is disappearing. 

Major new news:  The President-in-Exile of Belarus, in Poland now, declared herself the one true President of Belarus and denounced Lukashenko as a Russian puppet for going along with the invasion. 

https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/status/1497583706038484996?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Kazakstan refused to send additional troops to fight in Ukraine. 


*censored* is falling apart for Pooter.  Problem is that can increase the danger if the Russians get desperate and don't want to take a loss.  It's more likely that if they cannot take Kyiv they simply withdraw to the areas they already occupied before the offensive began.  But there is a long long way to go before we get there. 

[Grant]

From the little reporting I've bothered to pay attention to apart from what I'm getting on a handful of forums and chats. It seems to me that either the Russians are holding back "their good stuff" or "their good stuff" isn't that good. At least when compared to what the Americans are playing around with.

I don't know that they're "holding back their GOOD STUFF", but rather they are holding back period.  My thought was they didn't want to use the full strength of their artillery and ground attack aircraft for fear of causing too many casualties and looking bad and stiffening resistance.  They're also not pressing the attack with their entire force quickly and with violence.  They're kinda half-assing it.  Maybe it is a logistical or command/control problem.  Maybe they don't want to go all out.  Russians traditionally like to keep a large reserve for a breakout anyways.  But there has been no breakout and if they're keeping a reserve for exploitation, they're keeping it too far back anyways.  I don't know. 

Their stuff has never been comparable to ours, except in a few areas.  They have good aircraft, but they never had the training and experience we had.  Syria was supposed to fix that, but it hasn't seemed to translate as success in Ukraine.  Russian air defense has always been better, but it's because we don't put a bunch of resources in air defense except for missile interception with the navy and ballistic missile interception with Patriot.  Lol, we don't even have mobile ballistic missile capability like they do.  The idea being that we don't need it when our Air Force is so badass. 

They are dabbling in these new hypersonic stuff and maybe they have a lead on developing some weapons, but they are ahead there because we just don't need hypersonic weapons.  They do because they cannot penetrate our air defenses otherwise.  We can do it without it, using stealth and mass. 

It they think they've built themselves an unstoppable military juggernaut, they're probably going to have a very rude awakening when they try to use it against NATO and US Forces who will be using the latest and greatest military tech available. The Ukranians are putting up a pretty good fight, and they're not using the top of the line stuff expressly because of concerns about Russians capturing it.

Lol.  No, they'd probably be slaughtered against NATO.  Especially if they're going half-assed like they are in Ukraine.  Not saying they couldn't take the Baltics or Finland or maybe even Poland.  But they better come heavy, lol, not like this.  If Ukraine had NATO equipment they'd be counterattacking the Russians already and chasing them back into Russia and Belarus. 

Note: The Ukrainians do have some NATO equipment.  But they are still not equipped like the Germans or the British or like the US.  Rooster, you could probably win the ground war in Ukraine right now with a single American Armored Cavalry Regiment.  They don't have even older American planes.  Their planes are not bad, though. 

[Grant]

Italy and Hungary now backing Russian expulsion from SWIFT banking system. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/26/swift-eu-leaders-line-up-to-back-banning-russia-from-banking-network

I'm not a finance guy but my understanding was that this was a "nuclear option". 


Germany allowing lethal aid to be shipped through their territory, a major change in policy. 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-war-russia-germany-still-blocking-arms-supplies/


Ukraine opens a hotline for Russian families of soldiers to notify them if their sons had been captured or their bodies recovered. 

[cherrypoptart]

I'm surprised there isn't more drone warfare.

Now is the time to go all out on economic and diplomatic pressure against Russia while it still looks like Ukraine might have a chance. The plan to use sanctions against Russia over the long term as they digest Ukraine is a bad one. The SWIFT ban should happen immediately. The time to throw everything at Russia including the kitchen sink is right now. Keeping some ammunition in reserve will make it much less useful than the shock and awe of going full frontal while there is still a chance Russia can be convinced to pull out. These half measures and veiled threats and even sometimes seeming encouragements like Biden suggested with his "It's one thing if it's a minor incursion..." babble are not cutting it.

Russia needs to be immediately and totally isolated economically until all they are getting is humanitarian aid to keep from starving or freezing. And any countries not going along should be cut off from U.S. banks as well and assets should start getting frozen. This really is a case of if you're not with us you are against us.

It needs to be made clear to Putin that the indemnity Russia will be forced to pay to Ukraine which is already substantial and in the billions, is going up faster than the American debt clock and the only way to slow it down is to start pulling out. The longer he waits, the more he's going to to owe and lose. Lives lost and damage done need to start showing up on the online Russia to Ukraine indemnity clock so Putin can see the damage he is doing to his own country in stark financial terms. Russia needs to pay for what they've done here, literally.

The sooner they pull out, the sooner the gas and money can start flowing again and the sooner they can start paying off their blood debt, and the sooner the better for them because the interest on it is already accruing.

[cherrypoptart]

I'm going to recalibrate my opinion on Trump's words about Putin and the invasion.

Trump's opinion on this is idiotic. Putin isn't a genius. This wasn't a bold move and it won't be a profitable one. It was a huge blunder and it's going to cost Putin and Russia more than they ever imagined and more than they could possibly hope to gain.

The world is going to make sure of it.

[TheDeamon]

Germany didn't just allow military aid through their borders/airspace  they're providing military aid themselves. They're also now allowing their arms to be provided to Ukraine via third party nations.

Also there is word circulating that Russia has targeted schools and hospitals, likely trying to get more solid confirmation of that before it gets major media attention.. But add in Russia bringing up MRLRS Thermobaric Weapon systems.... NATO might end up intervening on humanitarian grounds soon enough on the basis that the Russians are committing war crimes.

[TheDeamon]

Russia is also now in the process of unloading troops and equipment in Belarus just 10 miles from Poland's border. Cheery thoughts there.

[Fenring]

I have to say I have yet to hear a theory about Putin's motives that is satisfactory. That he wants to bring back the USSR is not entirely clear to me, especially since the heads of the USSR were probably not in the most enviable position compared to Putin right now. Whatever his other traits, I've always observed Putin to be concise and clear in his reasoning when asked questions, and at least my impression was that he was a mafioso quite in control of his game. Why he should do something this risky, where the gains are hard to see and the trouble potentially far more than any gains he'll find, is a mystery as far as I'm concerned. Why do this? As a mafioso, going to war is something you'd do when either backed up against a wall, or else when you know you'll get a big payoff. What's the big payoff? Or is his back up against a wall for reasons I'm not aware of? The whole thing is weird. I don't particularly accept that he's just delusional and is making attacks in the outrageous assumption he'll magically take over eastern Europe and be a mighty king.

[Grant]

I have to say I have yet to hear a theory about Putin's motives that is satisfactory. That he wants to bring back the USSR is not entirely clear to me, especially since the heads of the USSR were probably not in the most enviable position compared to Putin right now. Whatever his other traits, I've always observed Putin to be concise and clear in his reasoning when asked questions, and at least my impression was that he was a mafioso quite in control of his game. Why he should do something this risky, where the gains are hard to see and the trouble potentially far more than any gains he'll find, is a mystery as far as I'm concerned. Why do this? As a mafioso, going to war is something you'd do when either backed up against a wall, or else when you know you'll get a big payoff. What's the big payoff? Or is his back up against a wall for reasons I'm not aware of? The whole thing is weird. I don't particularly accept that he's just delusional and is making attacks in the outrageous assumption he'll magically take over eastern Europe and be a mighty king.

All wars begin often with miscalculations.  There are plenty to go around here. 

It seems partially obvious that Pooter miscalculated a number of things here. 

1.  The ability of the Russian army and air force as compared to his operations in George and Crimea. 
2. The resistance capable by the Ukrainians.
3. The economic response by NATO.
4. The PR/information ability of TikTok/Twitter to win the information/propaganda fight
5. The leadership of the Ukrainian government

I think that Pooter expected Ukraine to fall within 2-3 days.  I suspect he believed he could move so fast that NATO and the EU would accept the invasion as a fait accomplit and that he would only have to suffer economically for a short while. 

Some things Pooter did get right

1.  NATO would not become involved due to fear of nuclear reprisal
2. That Europe would not shut off the gas. 


The war isn't over yet.  Pooter can still win.  Ukraine can still fall and he can threaten Europe and selected countries can fold under the pressure of invasion or nuclear attack.  So far NATO has shown that they will support a buffer country economically and logistically, but has not been shown that it will risk nuclear war if a member state is invaded. 

Pooter uses military power, audacity, and threat to punch above his weight economically.  The goal is to increase the power and threat of Russia.  Bringing Ukraine back into the fold of Russian hegemony, like Belarus is now, increases his economic and military threat capability.  Consider how much stronger Russia would be with Ukraine fighting for it instead of against it.  His plan is basically to extort Europe.  It's simply a gangster taking more territory to be stronger.  Think Marlo Stansfield. Power and respect is what Pooter believes Russia lost by the dissolution of the USSR.  It's what he wants back.  Hitler was basically of the same mind when it came to "German humiliation" after WWI. 

Power and respect/fear. 

If you went through Russia in the 1990s you probably do have a feeling that the fall of the USSR was bad for Russia.  Russia goes from being a superpower to a "sick man of Europe".  The power and respect of the USSR was tied to it's military capabilities.  He wants to rebuild that.  He's already got Chechnyans fighting for him in  Ukraine.  He wants Ukrainians and Belarusians fighting for him too.  He wants to walk into the room at a summit with the G7/G8 or a EU summit and be the guy everybody is afraid of and bows down to.  That's it. 

That's my theory/take.  I don't think it's terribly complicated.  I think it fits with what other world leaders have said about him.