Author Topic: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка  (Read 34391 times)

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #200 on: February 27, 2022, 08:54:15 AM »
Pooter puts Russian nuclear forces on alert. 

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1497928069922926597?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

We are now in the most dangerous phase.  It seems Russia has decided it cannot win the war militarily.  This in itself is something of a miracle and more on that latter.  But this makes Russia all the more dangerous.  If they cannot win military they WILL threaten to win with nukes, or at least keep as much as they can, extort Ukraine, extort NATO.  The gun is being cocked and pointed at NATOs head.  He believes that NATO will give concessions to avoid nuclear war, because his army and air force have failed him. 

Ukraine confirms peace talks with Russia. 


Quote
BREAKING: Ukraine confirms peace talks with Russia today. During a phone call with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Zelensky agreed that the Ukrainian delegation would meet with the Russian delegation without preconditions on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/evacuees-from-occupied-donbas-get-cold-welcome-in-russia/

Russians seem to be out of gas.  I would say no to talks since they're on the ropes, but the Ukrainians don't have much in offensive capabilities either, so it's not like they can take back a bunch of their territory or take advantage of the Russians logistical problems.  The Russians will use any cease fire to rearm, refuel, and try to reinforce with Belarusians.  I don't know how serious the Russian peace proposals will be.  They will obviously try to get as much as they can, but not sure how much they are willing to settle for, because I don't know if the Ukrainians are going to be in a generous mood.  The war is at a tipping point where it is still unclear if anyone can win and both sides suffer additional losses. 


« Last Edit: February 27, 2022, 09:01:31 AM by Grant »

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #201 on: February 27, 2022, 09:02:19 AM »
I am still sticking to the China theory. He met with Xi Jinping 3 weeks ago when they signed that military cooperation agreement. Something China has notably not renounced in light of recent events.

I am fully convinced Xi knew this was coming, and that he has intentions on Taiwan. Although the Ukrainian resistance might be giving the PLA pause re: Taiwan.

MSNBC and CNN are running with Putin has lost his mind as it doesn't make sense.. It only doesn't make sense if viewed in isolation, if Taiwan is supposed to be invaded soon, it makes all kinds of sense.

Except people will use Taiwan to say Xi Jinping is insane too. Rather than he is simply desperate to retain power in China, as it looks like a 3 way power struggle for control of the CPC is underway.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #202 on: February 27, 2022, 09:19:52 AM »
I am still sticking to the China theory. He met with Xi Jinping 3 weeks ago when they signed that military cooperation agreement. Something China has notably not renounced in light of recent events.

Not sure if Russia or China need each others military cooperation.  The only thing China needs from this is to test the waters to see how the US and NATO reacts.  Xi may be happy to have the Russians go through the door first.  But the US Navy is more than capable of fighting China in the Pacific while the USAF fights the Russians in Europe. 

People like to bitch constantly about how much money we spent on the military.  This is why.  So we can walk and chew bubble gum at the same time. 

Russia gets nothing from this agreement unless your theory is that China attacks Taiwan around the same time and pulls American forces away from Europe.  But that doesn't need to happen.  You just need to read the map and look at the military capabilities of the United States. 

That being said, one thing that hasn't been demonstrated is the American resolve to fight to defend a country that is not part of a mutual defense treaty.  That being said, I think a USN Destroyer transited the Taiwan straight a few days ago, which may have been a message from Grandpa President to China. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #203 on: February 27, 2022, 09:26:15 AM »
I'm surprised there isn't more drone warfare.

Not sure if that is big on Russian capabilities.  Starting to see video evidence of Ukrainian UCAV strikes on Russian columns.  I'd seen the video of the damage done earlier and thought it might have been from a regular air strike since the Ukrainian air force was supposedly still flying.  Makes more sense to use the drones in that manner. 

What a mistake it was for Russia to not conduct a successful air campaign first and establish air superiority/supremacy over Ukraine.  The Russian Air Force was supposed to be one of the best parts of the Russian military.  All that *censored* about Su-35s and Su-33s and Su-57s and super missiles and crap.  In the old days generals would have been shot for this kind of failure. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #204 on: February 27, 2022, 10:36:59 AM »
I'm watching a video of a crowd of Ukrainians stopping a Russian tank column by standing in the middle of the road.  We're not talking one guy, like in Tiananmen Square.  We're talking an entire crowd of unarmed people.  And the Russians are not moving. 

I'm watching another video of a Ukrainian man removing an anti-vehicle mine from a road with a lit cigarette dangling from his mouth.  I think some people are overestimating the danger here, but not sure that Ukrainian knows that.



I'm trying to wrap my head around the possibility that Ukraine can with this thing without NATO air support.  If you asked me before the war started, as my posts should show, I would have given the Ukrainians <1-1% chance.  Two days I ago I would have given them 1% chance.  Yesterday a 2% chance.  Today something like a 5% chance.  But you can see the trend here. 

I think I'm doing the best to look at the correlation of forces and make an unemotional judgement without favoring Ukraine.  Because emotionally I want Ukraine to win very much, and I don't want what I want to cloud judgement. 

But the other factors are starting to build up.  The Russians have not done anything right.  They have *censored*ed up everything they could possibly have *censored*ed up.  Putting a marching band drum major in charge might have given them better results.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainians are doing all the important things right and fighting like devils. 

I overestimated the Russian military.  And I'm the guy who has been saying for years that the Russian stuff sucks and their training sucks compared to NATO for years.  I don't think I need to bring receipts concerning my view of the Russian military being *censored*ty.  But Jeez they have *censored*ed up.  Not done anything right. 

The Ukrainians are doing just about everything right.  Even from a purely logical standpoint it might have made sense to abandon the positions in the Donbass and retreat across the Dnieper.  They didn't.  And because of this their morale is still sky high and growing stronger every day.  Russian morale right now must be lower than dirt. 

Saw another post where two Russians went to a Ukrainian gas station when their vehicle went out of fuel.  Promptly arrested/captured.  I mean, WTF?

Some people are lambasting the guys who got this wrong online.  I guess I'm one of them.  But I don't see how anybody could have seen this coming.  I guess Kinzinger did.  He talked years ago back in 2016 on how bad the Russians sucked.  I figured numbers could make up for that, but they can't even do that right. 

I was wrong. 

I don't think it's over, but I was wrong and I have to recognize that if the Ukrainians keep doing what they are doing, and the Russians keep sucking, that the Russians are going to lose.  It's amazing.  The Russians just could not capitalize on their superior forces and make strong gains in the opening rounds.  Every day the Ukrainians are getting stronger. 

But the situation on the ground is leading to a new phase of danger.  Russia losing in a way could be more dangerous than Russia winning.  Now they're threatening nukes.  Their economy is set to be destroyed.  They have been humiliated, and European will to act against Russia also growing daily.  They're *censored*ed, and they're going to do whatever they can to get out of the mess they put themselves in. 

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #205 on: February 27, 2022, 02:27:58 PM »
I thought we didn't have to worry about Russia using nukes, that it would be suicidal?

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #206 on: February 27, 2022, 03:00:52 PM »
I thought we didn't have to worry about Russia using nukes, that it would be suicidal?

Oh, I haven't changed my opinion that it is a bluff.  Yes, it would be suicidal.  But you see, we're back in the same position.  Pooter says "if you do this, I will nuke you", and some people tend to believe him, or at least believe that the juice is no longer worth the squeeze. 

The initial presumption was:

"Stay out of the war, or I will nuke you"

And the idea was that the juice was not worth the squeeze, simply because Ukraine wasn't in NATO. 

What will be next?

"End all sanctions on Russia, or I will nuke you"
"End NATO military aid to Ukraine, or I will nuke you"
"Do not let Finland and Sweden into NATO, or I will nuke you"

Will the juice be worth the squeeze then? 

Now, I will admit that the risk is never zero, and the consequences of nuclear war are quite heavy.  Maybe the heaviest consequences you can imagine.  It's quite a gamble.  When do you gamble with millions of people's lives?  When can you afford not to?  Different people are going to have different answers.  It's interesting to note that the majority of the voices calling for military intervention by NATO are military or ex-military.  Different set of risk tolerances for different situations than your standard joe or jane.  That's both good and bad. 

Don't pretend that NATO isn't in this war.  We're shipping ass tons of weapons to Ukraine every day.  We're giving them intel.  We're flying surveillance missions daily right over the Polish and Romanian borders.  We're flying drones into the Black Sea.  We're funneling all that stuff to the Ukrainians.  Their defense of Kiev and Kharkiv are not entirely miracles.  The courage of the Ukrainians, that's all theirs and wow, it's no small part.  But NATO is involved.  Pooter knows this.  *censored* isn't going his way and he's probably not happy. 

I'd like to remind everyone that the United States was brought into the Second World War because of an enemy attack that was a response to economic sanctions.  Japan saw the sanctions by the US as interference in Asian affairs, and an attempt to limit their influence and power in the Pacific.  How do you think Pooter sees economic sanctions by the US and EU?  The Japanese saw was as inevitable.  How many talking heads have been spouting BS about "Thucydides Traps" over the last 20 years?  Think Russia and China see things the same way? 

No, I don't think Pooter is going to nuke anybody.  But some people might think he will, or think that the juice is not worth the squeeze, or that the risk/consequences are too high take the risk of confrontation.  That being said, deterrence is all about believability.  We draw our line, Pooter is drawing his.  The right answer is that we shouldn't be drawing the line anywhere except using nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the use of the same.  I understand that the US government and Russian government can't quite come out and say that, but I also know that the US government isn't the one consistently threatening to use them under different circumstances.   

If Pooter decides to detonate a nuke over Greenland, a kind of crazy "warning shot", would people be cowed or infuriated? 

The key here is that Pooter is less likely to resort to nuclear use the more he has to lose.  Pooter is rapidly running out of things to lose.  He's losing his war for Ukraine.  He hasn't lost, but he's losing by virtue of not winning.  Russia's economy is being threatened with destruction.  Any dreams of power and glory and respect and fear are rapidly evaporating.  If he can't have power and glory and respect, maybe he'll settle for fear. 
« Last Edit: February 27, 2022, 03:03:57 PM by Grant »

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #207 on: February 27, 2022, 03:47:30 PM »
Looking at satellite photos showing hundreds of Russian vehicles lining up on roads outside of Kiev, giving every A-10 and Apache pilot in history that looks at them involuntary priapisms.  Even the female ones.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #208 on: February 28, 2022, 08:22:01 AM »
No changes during the night.  Ukrainian forces still hold Kyiv and major cities. 

Ukrainian delegation led by the Defense Minister and leader of Zelenskyy's "Servant of the People" party have arrived at the border with Belarus for peace talks. 

Good idea.  I honestly suspected that the whole thing was a ploy to kill Zelenskyy.  I guess I don't trust a dude that has been assassinating dissident Russians throughout Europe. 

Z to release Ukrainian prisoners in jail with combat experience to serve on the front lines

Shades of The Dirty Dozen

Russian soldiers offered cryptocurrency for surrendering themselves and their equipment to the Ukrainian Army

I'm unsure of this.  I read a big thread on this last night on this, from some guy who must have been a Ferengi, who suggested offering $20,000 to any Russian who surrendered with a vehicle.  Bonuses for any officer who surrendered with his entire unit.   The math was done and it was figured it would cost $3.6 billion to buy the entire Russian Army in Ukraine.  Turned out to be something of a good deal.  Honestly I think it's somewhat naïve to think that they would decide to live in the west for the rest of their lives on 20 grand, or that getting all their families out would be feasible.  But it's an interesting approach. 

Shares of Russian's largest state owned bank drop 68%

Russia's economy will crater today.  Runs on banks starting.  It's going to get interesting in Russia.  Not sure if the Oligarchs can really do anything.  It would be up to the Russian Army.  Wouldn't be the first time. 

Russian defenders of Snake Island confirmed alive

Honestly, I think the Russians have been showing a bunch of restraint, especially their officers. 






TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #209 on: February 28, 2022, 08:49:54 AM »
The restraint makes sense. The more family members you kill, the more you get insurgency motivated by revenge. Your alternative is mass genocide. Which is something being watched carefully. One retired general suggested the only way to take Kyiv with the amount of armed people there willing to resist is to demolish it. Wholesale bombing could kill a lot of people, I reckon, if the Russians employ an Aleppo strategy. I think there are probably enough residents who are Russian, are pro Russian, or have ties to people in Russia for that to be very palatable. Plus, the Russians aren't going to be able to rebuild infrastructure when they are dead broke, which is a bad look for your puppet government in their capital city. We may be talking about the siege of Kyiv. And an entirely different kind of humanitarian crisis. Modern cities can't last long cut off from the outside world.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #210 on: February 28, 2022, 09:07:54 AM »
The restraint makes sense.

This may be changing.  Snake Island was early on.  I'm reading reports of cluster munition artillery being used on Kharkiv.  Not sure if they've been used on Kyiv yet, but we know they have the equipment and we know they have been lining stuff up for a big push into the capitol. 


TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #211 on: February 28, 2022, 10:18:34 AM »
I'm sure they'll use the equipment, and they will target civilian infrastructure. But I think it will be more as a threat than saturating the city. I don't think we're going to see them go full Dresden on them though they are more than capable. Just precision strikes on all the water treatment facilities would work from a strictly tactical perspective, don't you think?

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #212 on: February 28, 2022, 11:26:06 AM »
I'm sure they'll use the equipment, and they will target civilian infrastructure. But I think it will be more as a threat than saturating the city. I don't think we're going to see them go full Dresden on them though they are more than capable. Just precision strikes on all the water treatment facilities would work from a strictly tactical perspective, don't you think?

I don't know.  I think food is already being cut off in many areas. But the video I've seen generally confirms the use of cluster munitions against apartment complexes.  I don't know if this is indiscriminate, as some people have suggested, or if it was a Ukrainian Army strong point. 

I don't think they have real precision strike capabilities.  Not at American/NATO levels.  US Army FISTers can guide a single copperhead artillery round into a mailbox from 20K.  I don't think the Russians have that capability.  I don't even know if their artillery or air force has forward controllers or support teams.  I read that they didn't but it wasn't anything official. 

I think pressure from above is driving this change in tactics.  Not sure if their international perception could get much worse, practically.  Not sure if they could actually cause a greater amount of civilian resistance.  That seems to be a max level already.  But I bet plenty of generals are getting their asses chewed and *censored* rolls downhill in all armies. 

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #213 on: February 28, 2022, 11:58:47 AM »
Dresden killed 30,000 according to mid range estimates. So far, international observers are suggesting civilian deaths in Kyiv to be in the low hundreds. Depending on your definition of indiscriminate or widespread, it is or it isn't.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #214 on: February 28, 2022, 12:26:18 PM »
Depending on your definition of indiscriminate or widespread, it is or it isn't.

To me, "indiscriminate" means that you're not even aiming at any sort of target with military significance.  Personnel, infrastructure, or equipment.  You just point your weapons downrange where there are people and pull the trigger.  I can't say if that is what is happening now.  I can only say that there seems to have been a change so that they're actually using their indirect fires and air capability in a way that I had believed they would have on hardened military targets on day1 of an air campaign.  It's possible that Ivan just didn't have the recon capabilities that the United States has.  I'm used to the DIA and NRO having photos of every square inch of every enemy unit down to foot length for every unit commander before starting a war.  They don't even seem to have any CAS communication capabilities.  But I don't know.  Most of the information we get is pro-Ukrainian.  We're not getting a bunch of information that shows Russian successes or Ukrainian defeats, unless it involves border guards telling a Russian cruiser to "go *censored* themselves".  Their words, not mine. 

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #215 on: February 28, 2022, 01:54:57 PM »
An Anonymous account reported earlier today that the hacking collective’s #OpRussia campaign had taken down more than 300 Russian government, state media and bank websites over the past 48 hours, with the majority of those struggling to come back online.

Interesting. I imagine Western state actors could use this as cover, just like the Russians have blamed independent hackers for their state actions.

yossarian22c

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #216 on: February 28, 2022, 02:20:40 PM »
An Anonymous account reported earlier today that the hacking collective’s #OpRussia campaign had taken down more than 300 Russian government, state media and bank websites over the past 48 hours, with the majority of those struggling to come back online.

Interesting. I imagine Western state actors could use this as cover, just like the Russians have blamed independent hackers for their state actions.

Cyber may be the one area we aren't afraid to unleash our arsenal on Russia. I think we'll know for sure if the power starts going off in Russia and oil and gas pipelines quit working.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #217 on: February 28, 2022, 03:14:32 PM »
Maybe I'm too optimistic but I don't see how Putin stays in power after this shameful fiasco.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #218 on: February 28, 2022, 03:21:47 PM »
I had wondered about this and it's good to see it happening. I was tempted but I got shot down by a spousal barrage.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/akvyq4/russian-ukraine-invasion-foreign-fighters-battalion


"He told VICE World News that Zelenskyy’s call for foreigners to come and join the ranks of a newly-formed “International Brigade” of Ukraine’s armed forces had led to a surge of volunteers signing up to join the fight. Among those who had signed up since Zelenskyy’s appeal were an estimated 70 from the UK and 50 from the US, he said.

In the prior three weeks of escalating aggression from Russia, about 200 foreign fighters had joined up, he said.

“They want to fight for freedom and they want to fight for democratic values,” he said."

-----------------------------------------------------------------

You know this isn't the time or the place for negativity but...

One does have to wonder if Afghanistan could have been held against the Taliban if the Afghan army and people had showed even a fraction of the courage and determination we're seeing in Ukraine.


msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #219 on: February 28, 2022, 03:33:41 PM »
I wonder how well those fighters from other countries will do with out the support of their local army, including technical and physical support.  I mean the US guys can not take the special weapons and gear with them, can they?  Now I can see it working if they have been trained on equipment supplied by the US to Ukraine.

Not that these people volunteering is not a good thing, I am just not sure how much it can help. They do not know the land and probably not the language.

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #220 on: February 28, 2022, 03:53:30 PM »
Quote
Maybe I'm too optimistic but I don't see how Putin stays in power after this shameful fiasco.

Putin is a very calculating so I wouldn't be surprised he he hangs on.

There is a troubling story that Putin likes to tell about a lesson he learned as a young boy about a rat you cornered in his apartment.  The lesson learned when cornered attack. 
Did Putin feel cornered and so attacked Ukraine?

If Putin fails in the Ukraine and is threatened with loss of power how far would he go?  I wish I could believe that he cared about the Russian people or even his legacy. 


Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #221 on: February 28, 2022, 04:00:25 PM »
I wonder how well those fighters from other countries will do with out the support of their local army, including technical and physical support.  I mean the US guys can not take the special weapons and gear with them, can they?  Now I can see it working if they have been trained on equipment supplied by the US to Ukraine.

They're only taking people with previous combat experience, and they're probably narrowing those guys down too. 

Most of the people that I have heard were accepted and they're shipping out are ex SOF.  Cac, those guys probably got most of their own gear anyways because... they're vet-bros or are just professional mercs/fighters. 

As to anybody else, they may be able to shoehorn them in somewhere.  Worse comes to worse, they hand you an AK-47, a full magazine, and tell you to follow this person and do what they say.  You can't understand your NCO?  They will make themselves understood, I'm sure.  You will learn when they yell something particular that they are talking to you, then they will point to where they want you to go, and you will go. 

They probably have some people who speak English.  They're just about everywhere.  They might put them in charge. 

Teaching the use of technical equipment might be difficult, but you'll be surprised what you can learn from watching.  Want to drive a BDRM-2?  Watch this.  Hit these switches, push this button, press down on the clutch, put it into gear, go.  This is the word for forward.  This is the word for stop.  This is the word for right.  This is the word for left.  This is the word for back.  This is the word for faster.  This is the word for slow down.   If you have combat or military experience, you already understand the underlying theories. 

cherrypoptart

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #222 on: February 28, 2022, 04:05:08 PM »
I had thought about that too insofar as you could probably get better weapons at your local gun shop than some of what the Ukrainians are fighting with. I could be mistaken about that but I did hear the Mexican police and military concerned with the guns they are up against with the cartels, guns that the cartels got from basically American gun shops, including ones that have armor piercing rounds the police and even military don't have any good way of stopping. I imagine if you're willing to pay enough, you can buy better sniper rifles that what the Ukrainians are using too. I wondered about how one of these American militia groups you see running around out in the woods would do over there against the Russians. I don't know but it'd make a helluva reality tv show.

As for Putin one has to hope that if it comes down to it and he decides to go nuclear there are some people near him that have a plan in place to quash that insanity before it lifts off. They may even be reaching the limit of their tolerance already if they have any sense at all. This went totally off the rails and there's no way for Russia to win, even if they can still do so militarily, they have just about the entire world against them in every other way like I don't think we've ever seen before.

Ukraine is right that this isn't just about Ukraine. There is so much more than that at stake here and everyone understands it. Even if it was just about Ukraine, that alone would still be enough, but since it's so much deeper there is no way the people of the world will let this stand.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #223 on: February 28, 2022, 04:05:53 PM »
Putin is a very calculating so I wouldn't be surprised he he hangs on.

Looking at the history of Russia, I don't think this ends with him alive.  But no doubt he's not an easy target for a coup. 

msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #224 on: February 28, 2022, 04:12:38 PM »
Ok lets say a coup happens and Putin is out.  Do you think that helps Biden and hurts Trump? Just curious with all the Biden bashing coming from some on the right, especially Trump, and the support of the MTG and Gozars at the AFPAC  where attendees were cheering Putin.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #225 on: February 28, 2022, 04:22:08 PM »
Ok lets say a coup happens and Putin is out.  Do you think that helps Biden and hurts Trump? Just curious with all the Biden bashing coming from some on the right, especially Trump, and the support of the MTG and Gozars at the AFPAC  where attendees were cheering Putin.

Jeezis,  I don't know.  I'm not even thinking about that kind of stuff right now. 

That's one hell of a hypothetical.  Hypothetically speaking if Putin is removed and we manage not to get into a nuclear war I'll be too happy to care. 

Might as well ask how the sky raining down chocolate bars would affect domestic politics.  It has about the same chance of occurring as me sleeping with Rihanna.  OK, maybe a better chance, but  they're both statistically unlikely. 

« Last Edit: February 28, 2022, 04:30:24 PM by Grant »

cherrypoptart

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #226 on: February 28, 2022, 04:28:27 PM »
"You can't understand your NCO?  They will make themselves understood, I'm sure."

 Something like this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URNOsr7nQRQ

"When you understand the language sir everything falls into place."

msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #227 on: February 28, 2022, 04:29:38 PM »
Cherry, you surprise me sometimes.  That was funny as hell.


Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #228 on: February 28, 2022, 08:03:29 PM »
Seeing some really weird videos of entire unit of Russian BDRMs abandoned near Sumy.  Like mass desertion. 

Huge Russian convoys still being spotted by satellite moving south from Belarus towards Keev. 

Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria giving Ukrainian Air Force their MiG-29s.  All of them.  Think they already picked them up from Poland and have flown them back. 

UK warns it's soldiers not to leave to fight in Ukraine, lol. 

Zelenskyy asks again for NATO no-fly zone.  The whole "no-fly zone" is BS.  It's a way to pretend we're not getting involved when we are.  I'm in favor of NATO getting involved in the air, but not bull*censored*ting about it. 

Musk sends Starlink stations to Ukraine.  Gives the country free access to internet.  Gets there in a day.  Reinforces the Ukrainians internet. 

Cease-fire talks inconclusive.  Ukraine demanding Russia withdraws completely from Ukrainian territory, including Donbass and Crimea. 

Russian foreign ministry says that countries supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine will be held responsible and the measures taken by the EU will be met with a harsh response. 

Shall and BP divest from Gazprom.  Russian oil and gas industry heavily reliant on western skill, equipment, and knowledge, from what I have read. 

FIFA kicks Russia from world cup. 

Swiss abandon traditional neutrality and adopted EU sanctions against Russia. 


TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #229 on: March 01, 2022, 08:41:31 AM »
All these pictures of Russian armor bumper to bumper on roads. I'm no military tactician, but this seems wrong. When you need an assist from Belarus, that's also not a good sign.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #230 on: March 01, 2022, 10:23:57 AM »
All these pictures of Russian armor bumper to bumper on roads. I'm no military tactician, but this seems wrong. When you need an assist from Belarus, that's also not a good sign.

It is wrong.  It makes columns very vulnerable to air and artillery attack. 

The flip side to this is that when you're trying to shove that much equipment down a single road, that is what is going to happen.  They could spread out, but the line would stretch all the way back to Belarus.  Also, the threat from Ukrainian artillery and air attack is limited. 

In this kind of situation, you need to do a good job coordinating your route.  Something goes wrong and you have a traffic jam just like this.  You need to have multiple routes instead of a single one.  Sometimes this is not available, sometimes the planning is not good enough. 


I've heard about Belarus entering the war, but I havn't heard of Belarussian forces actually crossing the border yet. 

NobleHunter

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #231 on: March 01, 2022, 10:31:54 AM »
If this were a book, the Ukrainians would have mined the road to fare-thee-well or have artillery pre-sighted on the road or NATO would show up at the last minute and wreck the column without causing a nuclear war.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #232 on: March 01, 2022, 10:45:28 AM »
https://www.newsweek.com/eu-ukraine-fighter-jet-promise-falling-apart-russia-advances-slovakia-poland-bulgaria-1683588

NATO countries going back on giving Ukrainians their MiG-29s. 

I don't know what is involved in this decision.  I think the result is rotten, but maybe there is something I'm not understanding.  But my initial read on this is that Pooter's nuclear sabre rattling worked to spook Poland, Slovakia, and Bulgaria. 

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2022/03/01/poland-says-it-will-not-send-jets-to-ukraine/

Apparently it's ok to give the Ukrainians anti-tank missiles and MANPADs, but not aircraft.  Wouldn't want to upset Pooter.  Probably going to stop giving them the missiles soon too.  Pooter can threaten nuclear escalation and get whatever he wants.  Next will be a Russian nuclear weapons/ballistic missile test. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #233 on: March 01, 2022, 10:55:56 AM »
If this were a book, the Ukrainians would have mined the road to fare-thee-well or have artillery pre-sighted on the road or NATO would show up at the last minute and wreck the column without causing a nuclear war.

Mines have gone out of favor in the west due to problems of leaving explosives laying around for years for kids to play with. 

I don't think the Ukrainians ever had a bunch of artillery.  It would have been a secondary critical target for the Russian Air Force, but I don't think Ivan ever took care of their primary targets, so...

I don't think NATO is going to show up.  There is always a chance that some European country goes rogue and says "*censored* it" and enters the conflict without NATO approval.  The only country I see maybe doing that would be the UK.  They're far enough back to not have to worry about Russian counter-attack.  Boris Johnson is... well he's Boris Johnson.  I think sometimes telling the EU to "get bent" makes them happy.  Maybe their not terribly worried about nuclear escalation.  I mean, what is Pooter going to do?  Nuke London?  Aberdeen?  The Brits will nuke him back with their subs. The flip side to that is that the UK doesn't have any bases nearby and Poland and Romania isn't going to let them use theirs to launch attacks into Ukraine.  They won't even let the UK use their airspace for it. 

Definitely not a story. 

NobleHunter

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #234 on: March 01, 2022, 11:40:57 AM »
Mines have gone out of favor in the west due to problems of leaving explosives laying around for years for kids to play with. 

I wasn't thinking of the typical step on them and the explode mines but remotely detonated bombs. There are so many problems with it that in a book I'd paper over.

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #235 on: March 01, 2022, 03:51:36 PM »
The world makes me sad  :(

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #236 on: March 01, 2022, 04:10:44 PM »
Quote
"We are supporting Ukrainians with humanitarian aid. However, we are not going to send any jets to the Ukrainian airspace," said Mr Duda, dismissing claims that dozens were coming. His response did not appear to answer suggestions that Ukrainian pilots could take control of the fighter jets in Poland.

Are they loopholing things here? We didn't GIVE them fighters, we LOANED them. Or maybe they STOLE them. They've been MISPLACED, Vladimir, that's all.

Quote
“We are not going to send any jets into Ukrainian airspace,” said Duda, who did not indicate if Poland was considering an aircraft transfer over land, or who else might be delivering them.

We'll just fly them over to the border and let them roll downhill, see?

cherrypoptart

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #237 on: March 01, 2022, 05:14:12 PM »
The maintenance techs who forgot the aircraft wheel chocks again are going to get a very stern talking to.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #238 on: March 01, 2022, 07:20:14 PM »
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-1

Quote
Russian forces are receiving needed supplies and reinforcements that may facilitate much more rapid and effective operations in the coming 24-72 hours. The Russian effort around Kyiv remains poorly organized, however, with elements of many different battalions combined into what seem to be ad hoc groupings rather than operating under standing regiment or brigade headquarters. The initial errors in the Russian force composition and organization in Belarus and western Russia that ISW has previously reported on, which contributed to Russian logistical and operational failures around Kyiv, will be difficult to remedy quickly and will likely continue to cause friction and reduce the effectiveness of Russian operations even as supply issues are addressed and reinforcements come into the fight. It remains too early to evaluate the likely effective combat power the added Russian troops will bring.

Quote
Key Takeaways

Russian forces are setting conditions to envelop Kyiv from the west and attempting to open up a new axis of attack from the east that would let them encircle the capital. It is unclear if Russia has sufficient combat power to complete such an encirclement and hold it against Ukrainian counter-attacks.
Russian forces will likely launch a renewed ground offensive to seize Kharkiv following the air/artillery/missile attack it has been conducting in the past 24 hours.
Russian and Russian proxy forces will likely solidify the “land bridge” linking Rostov-on-Don with Crimea, allowing Russian forces to move more rapidly from Rostov to reinforce efforts further west.
Russia’s successful seizure of Kherson city may allow Russian forces to resume their interrupted drive toward Mykolayiv and Odesa.
Belarusian forces have likely entered the war on Russia’s side despite denials by the Belarusian president.

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #239 on: March 01, 2022, 07:25:25 PM »
If this were a book, the Ukrainians would have mined the road to fare-thee-well or have artillery pre-sighted on the road or NATO would show up at the last minute and wreck the column without causing a nuclear war.

Mines have gone out of favor in the west due to problems of leaving explosives laying around for years for kids to play with.

To such an extent I think the US is the only member of NATO not party to the treaty banning their use in warfare, mostly because of the Korean DMZ.

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #240 on: March 01, 2022, 07:31:48 PM »
Ah, the giant brains working in the Biden Admin.

Republicans and some Democrats: We need to do something to reduce the US reliance on Russian Oil during this crises.

Biden Admin: The ultimate solution is the get the Global Economy off of oil.

Republicans and some Democrats: That's great... But we need something with a more immediate time horizon. Like, loosen up restrictions on domestic oil exploration and allow the Keystone XL pipeline to be completed?

Biden Admin: Those solutions would take months/years to carry out.

Republicans: And the "we'll fix it with 'green energy'" will implement more quickly?

Russians: So the sanctions being imposed against us have a time limit that can be measured in months?

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #241 on: March 01, 2022, 08:36:44 PM »
Russians: So the sanctions being imposed against us have a time limit that can be measured in months?

STOP USING OIL. The end. We could have been weaning ourselves from it for years not by producing more, but by adding taxes in line with what Europe did, but no we had to be greedy little boys and girls. This goes way back, its not a Biden administration thing. Maybe this will be the catalyst. Maybe if gas prices go up 30%, we can get our national fleet converted much faster. Of course the US doesn't really import Russian oil in the first place, so its really a question of European resolve, but Germany looks like they are settling in. Let things cost more, bite the bullet, don't demolish Alaskan wilderness to suckle just a little longer at the fossil fuel teat.

Fenring

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #242 on: March 01, 2022, 08:40:53 PM »
Russians: So the sanctions being imposed against us have a time limit that can be measured in months?

STOP USING OIL. The end. We could have been weaning ourselves from it for years not by producing more, but by adding taxes in line with what Europe did, but no we had to be greedy little boys and girls. This goes way back, its not a Biden administration thing. Maybe this will be the catalyst. Maybe if gas prices go up 30%, we can get our national fleet converted much faster. Of course the US doesn't really import Russian oil in the first place, so its really a question of European resolve, but Germany looks like they are settling in. Let things cost more, bite the bullet, don't demolish Alaskan wilderness to suckle just a little longer at the fossil fuel teat.

I personally think this line of reasoning is a red herring. The Western world is not reliant on Russia for oil. In fact the Saudi/Russia oil wars that have been going on for quite a while are based in the idea of Saudi (aka petrodollar) oil supremacy, where that nasty Syria kept getting in the way. I expect that at least part of this long-term reasoning was to put Russia in its place even if that meant propping up Wahhabi extremists. Putin on the other hand was obviously trying to develop his own infrastructure to get Russian oil into Europe. But the entire idea behind the U.S./Saudi/Israel plan was to use Saudi oil for that immediate region, with U.S. and Canadian oil being part of the mix (and no doubt some other third world countries), but with Russian oil excluded. Otherwise the plan makes no sense. A corollary of this is that the Western world should in principle be absolutely fine without Russian oil, even putting aside the notion of finding alternative fuel sources.

TheDeamon

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #243 on: March 01, 2022, 09:02:27 PM »
The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021.

That's just over 670 thousand barrels of oil per day being imported from Russia into the United States. It amounted to roughly 8% of US Oil imports in 2021 according to the US Energy Department. It also marked a 24% increase over imports from 2020. Thanks ObamaJoe Biden?

Fenring

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #244 on: March 01, 2022, 09:12:05 PM »
The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021.

That's just over 670 thousand barrels of oil per day being imported from Russia into the United States. It amounted to roughly 8% of US Oil imports in 2021 according to the US Energy Department. It also marked a 24% increase over imports from 2020. Thanks ObamaJoe Biden?

Yes but that's just where the market sits right now. It's not an indication of necessity but of convenience. Last I recall in the fracking sphere the reality was that fracking was developing such oil resources that in fact it blew a hole in the "Earth is almost out of oil" theory. You might recall the frequent countdowns of "20 years until the human race runs of out oil" alarmism that made the rounds every five years or so. Not that I'm versed in the fracking controversy in terms of the issue of whether in fact it does permanent damage to certain areas or not. I'm not into that science on that. But all that to say I highly doubt that without Russian oil the West would have some kind of problem. All 'oil emergencies' do is give the cartels a chance to jack the prices up claiming emergency and leave them at that level forever.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #245 on: March 02, 2022, 08:47:10 AM »
The US imported 245 million barrels of oil from Russia in 2021.

That's just over 670 thousand barrels of oil per day being imported from Russia into the United States. It amounted to roughly 8% of US Oil imports in 2021 according to the US Energy Department. It also marked a 24% increase over imports from 2020. Thanks ObamaJoe Biden?

Thanks free market

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #246 on: March 02, 2022, 08:49:42 AM »
If you allow more drilling, what do you think happens? The excess just builds up somewhere? No, more expensive ways to get oil cease production over time. Or, extra oil lowers prices and spurs even greater consumption.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #247 on: March 02, 2022, 09:06:56 AM »
I see the Republican talking points are out after the SOTU last night.  Good to know they're still out there. 

I wanted to watch the great prayer, but I've been exhausted from staying up too late so I took a break.  From some comments from people I listen to, I understand the speech started off strong on Russia/Ukraine, but then dissolved into pet domestic projects that nobody really cared about except (apparently) Grandpa President and special interests.  But I don't think I can have a real opinion yet.  To me the tone is the most important, and the starting and ending mantras.  It's unfortunate that the high prayer of the SOTU can no longer achieve it's primary function of bringing together Americans with Civil Religion, due to the high partisanship. 

I understand Boobear and SpaceLazer were classy as usual.  Good to see the Trumpy wing being represented. 

I don't know enough about Russian oil.  I don't understand how we can still be importing it if we're cutting ties to Russian banks, etc.  I agree we should not be paying Russia for oil.  I agree we can increase domestic production somewhat and import more from OPEC, but it will cost more.  Gas prices are already high.  Frakking has helped this in the past.  More nuclear plants.  But getting off the "oil teat" is impossible right now. 

Kind of off topic.  I would have started another thread on the SOTU, but I understand how Russian oil connects to the war.  But other than that, it's off topic. 

LetterRip

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #248 on: March 02, 2022, 09:11:18 AM »
There is this thing called 'an economy' - when it is doing crappy, say in the middle of a badly handled pandemic - oil imports go down, when the economy improves - say when a new President improves the handling of the pandemic - the imports go up.

Also oil is 'fungible' that means, that if one supplier cuts production - say Saudi Arabia in response to threats from a President, the oil from other suppliers goes up, say Russia.

So Trump threatened Saudi Arabia, decreasing their oil production, and exports to the US - increasing imports from Russia.  Biden got wide spread vaccination, causing a major economic recovery.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #249 on: March 02, 2022, 01:05:16 PM »
Turkey sends more TB-2 drones to Ukraine

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/30352-ukraine-says-it-received-new-batch-of-bayraktars-from-turkey

Just so I understand the rules, drones are ok, but MiG-29s are not. 

I mean, I still don't know what went into the decision.  It would be nice for some clarification.