And another analyst I follow, has pointed out some cheery information for the next year or two.
Russia is the #5 Grain exporter in the world, Ukraine is #4. For obvious reasons, if the fighting runs much longer in Ukraine(and even if Ukraine surrendered next week) it is unlikely that Ukraine is going to have much of a planting season, or subsequent harvest this year. And with Russia under a harsh economic sanctions regiem...
The Arab Spring from a decade ago happened largely in response to an increase in food prices as a consequence of a drought that struck Ukraine and Russia the year before.
Only we're not just dealing with their grain exports this year.
China is the #1 exporter of phosphate based fertilizers, so if they do anything that results in their sanctioned too...
Russia is the #4 exporter of phosphate based fertilizers...
Using potash for your fertilizer input? Russia, Belarus, and China combined made up 48% of the world's potash production in 2020.
Nitrate based fertilizers use natural gas as a primary input, and Russia is one of the world's primary producer of natural gas and associated byproducts (such as nitrate fertilizers).
Modern crop yields across much of the world are heavily reliant on the input of fertilizers. Fertilizer supplies, of nearly all types, are likely to be extremely tight this year, which means very expensive for the areas that still have it available(North America--which ironically doesn't need it very badly thanks to naturally productive farmland), and severe shortage in other parts of the world. Severe shortage of fertilizer in turn means diminished crop yields later this year... Which means further reduction in food exports/availability across the globe.
The "Arab Spring" was wild enough as it was, dialing that up to 11 and throwing in the Covid aftermath on top of that and the next couple of years are looking to be very rough ones indeed, even if China doesn't decide to trigger a Great Power conflict over Taiwan.
