Satellite imagery seems to show the Russians digging in around NW Keev. Assessments seem to agree that the campaign is transitioning. The Russians failed to achieve their objectives through maneuver and are transitioning to a prolonged campaign of utilizing concentrated artillery and air attacks to take Ukraine a piece at a time in the east. We've moved from Desert Storm, to Korea, to WW2, and now we're moving into a WW1 phase of protracted warfare along fixed lines with concentrated artillery and infantry/armor attacks for small gains. The Russians are settling in for a long haul. Can their troops do this in the middle of the eastern european winter? How long until it warms up? Russian morale is becoming more and more crucial.
Losses among Russian general officers, in both the army and navy, point to the need for these officers to move to the front to coordinate activities and motivate troops. Their deaths may indicate their lack of secure communications (discussed before), allowing them to be targeted and hunted down by Ukrainian SOF and drones.
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russian-officer-elite-decimated-9-who-were-killed-in-combat-2022-3For comparison, the United States has only lost seven general officers (all services) (I think) since WW2. The Russians have lost almost twice that in three weeks. This is not really a criticism of the Russian general officer corps. They're displaying some courage and moving to the front to sort things out. It is a general criticism of their communications capability and the leadership ability of their field grade officers and NCO corps. It appears the Russians are losing their best people quickly.
One assessment I read said that the fall of Mariupol was inevitable. They're probably right IMO. It could be two weeks or it could be two hours. Severodonetsk will also likely eventually fall unless the Ukrainians can reinforce or step up their counter-attacks south of Chuhuiv in the next few days. That's just a guess though. But if Severdonetsk falls it will create a major breach of the Donets river defensive line in the Donbass. The Russians may soon have two minor victories and an opening in the east. I don't believe they would be able to encircle the eastern Ukrainian army, they havn't been very successful at moving fast enough, and they lost most of the airborne and air assault infantry trying to take Keev, but they would be able to drive them from their defensive positions along the Donets river and create a better situation for them to exploit and to secure Mariupol. The Ukrainians have a choice to use their reserves to counter-attack to the west of Keev, or shift these forces to reinforce in the Donbass. Tough call.
The Ukrainians were able to successfully defend against a maneuver campaign by the Russians. But the Russians are adapting now, focusing their efforts one stronghold at a time, and utilizing their last real strengths. As successful as they were on the defensive, the Ukrainians may not have enough of a reserve to successfully transition to the offensive and take advantage of the Russian's lack of mobility. Or maybe they do and we'll see something.
Key takeaway is that a war that the Russians wanted to win in 2 days could stretch on and on indefinitely.
In the entertainment section, the chief diplomatic advisor to Zelenskyy invited Grandpa President to visit Keev after the NATO summit in Brussels next week.
The adviser, Ihor Zhovka, said during a CNN interview Friday that 'one should not be afraid to [travel to Kyiv] if you are brave'
Zhovka also noted how leaders of three other nations have visited Kyiv and met with Zelensky.
'Well, you know, just this week, three prime ministers of three friendly nations – Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovenia – visited, personally, Kyiv, and they met personally with President Zelensky,' he responded.
'So why [doesn't] President Biden come to Ukraine to meet with the president?'
When questioned about the danger of Biden traveling to Kyiv, Zhovka said: 'Well, definitely it is dangerous when you have a war against my country, a war in Europe.'
LOL. Pretty boss troll move. Not sure if it's wise to embarrass one of your chief sources of support, but it's a boss move.
The bigger story to me is the reaction online by Democrats on the idea of Biden going to Keev. THEY LOST THEIR MINDS, lol. Like Biden was the King of the chessboard, lol. Forget the Presidents of Poland, Czechia, or Slovenia. Those are just pawns, lol. If Joe Biden dies, you would think that America would straight up collapse and fall into a thousand years of darkness. Like, zero confidence in Kamala Harris.
This isn't a real criticism of Grandpa President, whether he decides to accept this offer or not, which I don't think he will. This is a commentary on the Democrats who can't even see any benefits to such a visit, while Zelenskyy is showing his ass to Pooter on a daily basis, sticking around Keev, dodging Russian assassination squads, and turning down escape helicopters from Grandpa President saying he needs ammo, not a ride.
Enthusiasm for Zelenskyy is cooling in some quarters after Zelenskyy keeps asking for things that the Germans and Americans are not willing to give, like MiGs or "no fly zones", etc. Some people who still don't support getting into a shooting war with Russia are able to forgive Zelenskyy, and some cannot.
Overall, I'm reading a bunch of stuff where analysts are now saying that Russia cannot win conventionally. Even grinding down the Ukrainians a square klick a day, every day, forever. I'm still on the fence. But it hazards the question of what Pooter will do if the war really turns against Russia or if the Poles enter the war like they're saying they want to.
People have been *censored*ting the bed since day one, afraid of starting "World War III", which is still the major factor keeping the United States and NATO from entering the war in a more significant way. Make no mistake, the way the Russians see it, the US and NATO is already involved in the war, overtly giving weapons and intel to the Ukrainians and waging a pretty hefty war against the Russia's economy. Pooter is already coming up with a plan to force NATO to lift economic sanctions.
I've never been personally attached to the concept that NATO or US involvement could lead to nuclear Armageddon. But I would not rule out the possibility of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons against targets in Ukraine. Yes, there is a possibility of nuclear war. Personally, I think we got here by being too careful and cautious. But we're in the *censored* now and it's going to get deeper. I don't know what the reaction to utilizing a nuclear weapon in eastern europe will have on the Europeans or America as a whole. People have been so scared over it it may cause panic. Or it may cause a reaction that Pooter hasn't calculated on. Scared people don't always react by surrendering.
