"What did you do during World War Three, Paw Paw?"
"I fought in the meme wars, pumpkin. At Twitter and Reddit, and a little place called Ornery. I started a thread called "Why are Republicans/Democrats so stupid?".
"Oh"
Anyways, things are heating up. Artillery attacks and slow steady pressure by the Russians all along the Donets Line and the Severdonetsk Salient. Still no major attempt at a breakthrough in the north or south. Supposedly the Russians need more time to get all their forces through Belgorod into Izium to their SPs, and the stubborn holdout in Mariupol which I think is delaying any southern arm of an envelopment move. It would have been a good idea for the Russians to take time to soften up Ukrainian dug in units anyways, unlike what they tried to do at the jump.
The Ukrainians seem to have decided on a counter-attack focused south of Kharkiv as their answer. They seem to have been able to penetrate roughly 10 miles out of Chuhuiv over the weekend, threatening to cut the units concentrating in Izium off from supply from the north, and taking them from behind. I personally think that the Ukrainians are jumping the gun here, and should have waited for the Russians to commit to the offensive and then draw them into the interior, maybe to Barvinkove or Sloviansk, before counter attacking along their northwestern flank. Draw them into the sack, let them be fixed by forces in those towns, let their flanks be exposed and logistics used up on the attack instead of the defense, THEN hit them in the rear.
I'm reading one analyst who says that the evidence is that the Russians will attempt to attack down Hwy E40 instead of going towards Barvinkove. Maybe he's right, because it would simplify the logistics maybe, but the Ukrainians have already dug in pretty good in Sloviank. You can never count on the Russians to do anything smart, however.
Mariupol will probably fall within a week, but I thought that two weeks ago so go figure. I'm reading that the Russians are using Backfires to bomb Mariupol. This is new to me, and signals that Russia has started using their strategic bomber fleet in a tactical role. Like B-52 arclight missions.
Worst case scenario: The Ukrainians are exhausted, and don't get enough new equipment, ammunition, etc, in enough time. Their new recruits are not as professional despite their "elan" or "esprit". The Russians, despite being the Keystone Cops of the military world, have learned enough and have enough forces involved to make a breakthrough south of Izium. The Ukrainian Army in Donbas collapses. The Ukrainians hold along the Dnieper. Unlikely but not impossible.
Best/Worst case scenario: The Ukrainians have a large enough strategic reserve to effectively counterattack along the Russian's right flank, rolling up the Russian attack in Donbas from Izium, the entire Russian flank begins to collapse. The Russian army morale hits new lows. Ukrainians threaten to attack into Crimea or Western Russia. Poop hits the fan in Moscow. Pooter attacks with chemical or tac nukes to attempt to force NATO to force Ukraine to negotiate end of the war with Russia still in control of Crimea and Donbas. Unlikely but probably a better chance than the above scenario.
Middle/worst worst scenario: The Russians attack but are blunted at Slovyansk and Barvinkove. The Russians released after Mariupol falls are too exhausted to do much to attack towards Pokrovsk. The Ukrainians do not have enough of a strategic reserve or do not have the logistics capability or cannot coordinate a multiple BDE or DIV sized counterattack. The war just grinds on. We have a new refit/rest phase where the Russians attempt to ready for another push. As time goes on, NATO and the US continue to allow greater degrees of heavy weaponry into Ukraine, including western aircraft and western armored vehicles/tanks. Over time, maybe 6 months, maybe 12 months, maybe 2 years, the Ukrainians develop the abilities needed to push the Russians out of Donbas and Crimea. Pooter, if he is still around, releases chemical or tac nukes or is "removed from the board". There is no detente. Cold War 2 develops in earnest in eastern Europe and lasts another 50 years, with the Russians being more paranoid than ever. The Eastern Europeans develop an alternative alliance to NATO, without Germany and France and Italy. Most likely centered on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Romania, Turkey, Finland, Sweden, Norway, the UK, and maybe the US. Call it EETO, Eastern European Treaty Organization. Russia, now a second rate power with tons of nuclear weapons, attaches itself to the teat of China. Likely, but with many levels of variation. The key here is lack of decisive action over the short term. Maybe we have chemical/nuclear release, maybe we don't.
The Ukrainians need maximum logistical support now when it comes to weapons and training. We need to get outside of the "this is what Russia will allow". We've already crossed the Russian red line. The Russians can't do anything because guess what? NATO has nukes too and they don't want NATO involved further. So if the US isn't going to get involved and end the war then it's time to train the Ukrainians on M1s, Bradleys, F-15s, F-16s, Patriots, and Paladins. If the war is going to drag on, the only way to end the war will be to give the Ukrainians the ability to push back the Russians with superior equipment. All the time while propping up the Ukrainian economy as much as possible before the entire country falls apart financially. Personally I find this COA to be more dangerous and less desirable than just entering the war and finishing things on our terms in a week or two. But public opinion seems to still be opposed and the current administration I think would just like the war to go away so they can get back to the real war, domestic politics in the US.
