Author Topic: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка  (Read 34362 times)

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #500 on: April 15, 2022, 01:30:36 PM »
Regarding Putin's rationality - pride motivates people, especially dictators. It wasn't rational for Saddam to sign up for complete destruction of his country and execution to avoid the indignity of international arms inspectors tromping around his facilities, but that's what happened. I don't think he's this cold-hearted calculator that's going to line up your carrot and stick coefficients the way you expect him to. He's not Baron Harkonnen, he's the Kwisatz Haderach and his destiny is to lead the Fremen in to their rightful place of influence and respect.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #501 on: April 15, 2022, 05:29:04 PM »
As far as "good guys" go, burning villages to the ground and torturing prisoners is usually considered disqualifying. I only locked you in the closet for your own good, Timmy. You'll thank me for it when you grow up.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #502 on: April 17, 2022, 10:47:53 AM »
So we've been in the mid-game now for, I dunno, a few weeks?  To recap, Ivan pulled out of the north/Keev front and redeployed to the eastern/Donbas front.  No more extended logistics tails.  The Russians are slogging it out inch by inch, attempting to attrit the Ukrainians utilizing artillery and air strikes. 

But at the same time, the Russians can't stop trying to maneuver a little.  It seems to me that their new main effort has been or will be pushing south out of Izium to take Barvinkove, then pressing further south to take Pokrovsk.  This cuts the main lines of supply from Dnipro for the Severdonensk salient and the rest of the Ukraininan forces deployed on the Donets line.  Izium seems to be where they are pushing their units they redeployed from Keev. 

So far, we havn't seen any major counter-attacks by the Ukrainians.  It's possible they don't have a strategic reserve large enough or feel like their best bet is still staying defensive.  Some people are suggesting that the Ukrainians are preparing to counterattack in the south, though Kherson, somehow getting across the Dnipro (I don't know if the E97 bridge is still up), and maybe going for Sevastapol.  The southern front is where the Russians appear the weakest, and where a counterattack could perhaps make the most headway against a major supply depot for the Russians.  Despite some SOF attacks by the Ukrainians inside Russia, it may be different if the Ukrainians actually try to counterattack on the Russian's northern flank with the aim of driving for Belgorod inside Russia.  Personally, I still think this would be the best plan because this would collapse the Russian attack into the Donbas.  But there are political considerations to make if the Ukrainians are now invading Russia and taking Russian cities.  The hope may be if the Ukrainians can take Sevastopol, it would distract the Russians enough in the east, but I'm doubtful. 

All this is occurring against a background of new conscripts being trained in Russia and new conscripts and recruits being trained in Ukraine on additional NATO equipment that is slowly getting there.  Some video evidence seems to suggest that the Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrel/depot when it comes to replacing their vehicle losses in Ukraine.  Somebody joked about them pulling T-55s out of museums soon.  Meanwhile the Ukrainians are getting newer and better equipment, but slowly. 

Mariupol still stands and has been really drawing the Russian forces that could be used in the southern pincer move towards Pokrovsk.  Not sure how much longer than can hold out, but they have already held out longer than I expected. 

The Russians paraded the survivors of the Moskva in Moscow.  Somebody counted something like 52 survivors.  Out of a crew of 500.  The Admiral in charge of the Black Sea Fleet was arrested by the FSB.  Some people are worried the Moskva was carrying nuclear weapons.  Not quite sure why.  I doubt SPECTRE will be able to get in there to steal them if they are down there.  Likely they were blown up or severely damaged when the magazine blew.  I suppose they could still salvage the weapons grade uranium. 

Negotiations have seemingly broken down and will probably not start back up again until someone gets the upper hand in the Donbas. 

Some people are suggesting this is great for Ukraine, because it allows them to continue to grind down Russian forces attacking in the Donbas.  But I'm personally not sure. This always comes back to the lack of good visibility on Ukrainian losses.  How well are the Russians now using massed artillery to destroy Ukrainian defensive positions? 

Russians are threatening to move nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad if Sweden and Finland join NATO.  Just to remind them that the alliance is a sham because nobody can fight Russia without risking nuclear war and returning to pre-industrial tech levels. 

I'm reading some optimism in Time magazine online about the effects of the war on global grain supply. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #503 on: April 18, 2022, 06:07:34 PM »
So, I think Zelensky made a video where he said that the "Battle of Donbas has begun", or something of that nature.  So now everybody on the interwebs is repeating it, so you have to hear it too.  Despite I think Zelensky saying in the same message that it would take another 6 days for the Russians to get all their new BTGs in place. 

Everything is pointing to the Russians making a big push south of Izium.  They only have, I dunno, 15 miles to get to Barvinkove.  It's all farmland but there are all these ravines in there.  Really nice country for a armored or mechanized defense.  All these places to hide and then pop up and hit the Russians on the flanks.  And this may be the first time that the Russians are trying to advance along an axis that doesn't have a major highway to supply them.  They may be going against the grain here, depending on where they actually turn if they are able to take Barvinkove.  I think it may be only another 100 miles to Pokrovsk, but 100 miles through fields and ravines going against the grain can be rough. 

So if the Ukrainians do have a strategic reserve, and have decided to hold it on the defense, or are holding it for a response to the next Russian offense, the best move will be to attack southeast from Kharkiv.  Wait until the Russians exhaust themselves pushing south towards Pokrovsk, let them extend, then take them from behind or from the flank. 

To do this, Ukraine would probably have to deploy as much as possible whatever they have left in Kyiv to the east.  There are still 22 BTGs hanging out in Belarus though. 

The success of the Russians will depend largely on their ability to coordinate a large scale Division sized attack south of Izium, coordinating artillery the entire time.  They have not been able to do this very well so far.  The success of the Ukrainians will depend on if they even have a strategic reserve and what strength their units are operating in the Kramatorsk  area. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #504 on: April 19, 2022, 11:37:40 AM »
"What did you do during World War Three, Paw Paw?"

"I fought in the meme wars, pumpkin.  At Twitter and Reddit, and a little place called Ornery. I started a thread called "Why are Republicans/Democrats so stupid?". 

"Oh"


Anyways, things are heating up.  Artillery attacks and slow steady pressure by the Russians all along the Donets Line and the Severdonetsk Salient.  Still no major attempt at a breakthrough in the north or south.  Supposedly the Russians need more time to get all their forces through Belgorod into Izium to their SPs, and the stubborn holdout in Mariupol which I think is delaying any southern arm of an envelopment move.  It would have been a good idea for the Russians to take time to soften up Ukrainian dug in units anyways, unlike what they tried to do at the jump. 

The Ukrainians seem to have decided on a counter-attack focused south of Kharkiv as their answer.  They seem to have been able to penetrate roughly 10 miles out of Chuhuiv over the weekend, threatening to cut the units concentrating in Izium off from supply from the north, and taking them from behind.  I personally think that the Ukrainians are jumping the gun here, and should have waited for the Russians to commit to the offensive and then draw them into the interior, maybe to Barvinkove or Sloviansk, before counter attacking along their northwestern flank.  Draw them into the sack, let them be fixed by forces in those towns, let their flanks be exposed and logistics used up on the attack instead of the defense, THEN hit them in the rear. 

I'm reading one analyst who says that the evidence is that the Russians will attempt to attack down Hwy E40 instead of going towards Barvinkove.  Maybe he's right, because it would simplify the logistics maybe, but the Ukrainians have already dug in pretty good in Sloviank.  You can never count on the Russians to do anything smart, however.

Mariupol will probably fall within a week, but I thought that two weeks ago so go figure.  I'm reading that the Russians are using Backfires to bomb Mariupol.  This is new to me, and signals that Russia has started using their strategic bomber fleet in a tactical role.  Like B-52 arclight missions. 

Worst case scenario:  The Ukrainians are exhausted, and don't get enough new equipment, ammunition, etc, in enough time.  Their new recruits are not as professional despite their "elan" or "esprit".  The Russians, despite being the Keystone Cops of the military world, have learned enough and have enough forces involved to make a breakthrough south of Izium.  The Ukrainian Army in Donbas collapses.  The Ukrainians hold along the Dnieper.  Unlikely but not impossible. 

Best/Worst case scenario:  The Ukrainians have a large enough strategic reserve to effectively counterattack along the Russian's right flank, rolling up the Russian attack in Donbas from Izium, the entire Russian flank begins to collapse.  The Russian army morale hits new lows.  Ukrainians threaten to attack into Crimea or Western Russia.  Poop hits the fan in Moscow.  Pooter attacks with chemical or tac nukes to attempt to force NATO to force Ukraine to negotiate end of the war with Russia still in control of Crimea and Donbas.  Unlikely but probably a better chance than the above scenario.

Middle/worst worst scenario:  The Russians attack but are blunted at Slovyansk and Barvinkove.  The Russians released after Mariupol falls are too exhausted to do much to attack towards Pokrovsk.  The Ukrainians do not have enough of a strategic reserve or do not have the logistics capability or cannot coordinate a multiple BDE or DIV sized counterattack.  The war just grinds on.  We have a new refit/rest phase where the Russians attempt to ready for another push.  As time goes on, NATO and the US continue to allow greater degrees of heavy weaponry into Ukraine, including western aircraft and western armored vehicles/tanks.  Over time, maybe 6 months, maybe 12 months, maybe 2 years, the Ukrainians develop the abilities needed to push the Russians out of Donbas and Crimea.  Pooter, if he is still around, releases chemical or tac nukes or is "removed from the board".   There is no detente.  Cold War 2 develops in earnest in eastern Europe and lasts another 50 years, with the Russians being more paranoid than ever.  The Eastern Europeans develop an alternative alliance to NATO, without Germany and France and Italy.  Most likely centered on Ukraine, Poland, the Baltics, Romania, Turkey, Finland, Sweden, Norway, the UK, and maybe the US.  Call it EETO, Eastern European Treaty Organization. Russia, now a second rate power with tons of nuclear weapons, attaches itself to the teat of China.  Likely, but with many levels of variation.  The key here is lack of decisive action over the short term.  Maybe we have chemical/nuclear release, maybe we don't. 

The Ukrainians need maximum logistical support now when it comes to weapons and training.  We need to get outside of the "this is what Russia will allow".  We've already crossed the Russian red  line.  The Russians can't do anything because guess what? NATO has nukes too and they don't want NATO involved further.  So if the US isn't going to get involved and end the war then it's time to train the Ukrainians on M1s, Bradleys, F-15s, F-16s, Patriots, and Paladins.  If the war is going to drag on, the only way to end the war will be to give the Ukrainians the ability to push back the Russians with superior equipment.  All the time while propping up the Ukrainian economy as much as possible before the entire country falls apart financially.  Personally I find this COA to be more dangerous and less desirable than just entering the war and finishing things on our terms in a week or two.  But public opinion seems to still be opposed and the current administration I think would just like the war to go away so they can get back to the real war, domestic politics in the US. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #505 on: April 21, 2022, 03:01:40 PM »

The Ukrainians need maximum logistical support now when it comes to weapons and training.  We need to get outside of the "this is what Russia will allow".  We've already crossed the Russian red  line. 

The latest:

I'm reading that the United States is providing 72 towed 155mm howitzers to Ukraine, with 121 recon drones and 144K shells (what type I don't know).  The equivalent of 4 artillery battalions.  A division's worth of guns.  Not bad.  It's not Paladins, but in terms of the most bang for your buck, you can't get better than towed 155s.  A previous package included counter-battery radars and Ukrainian cadre are being trained on the crewing of the artillery and the use of the radars. 

Another previous aid package included 200 M113 APCs.  The 113 is somewhat ancient technology, from the Vietnam era, but some people will tell you that it was the best mechanized infantry carrier ever produced by the US, the Bradley trying to do too much and limiting the amount of infantry it can carry in the process. 

Germany says it can't arm Ukraine because then it wouldn't be able to meet NATO goals.  LOL. 

The Czechs have sent T-72s and BMP-1s. 

Slovakia sent an S-300.

The UK is sending Stormer anti-aircraft vehicles.  I feel the US should be able to dig up some old M6 Linebackers to send.  It's really sad the state of US Army Air Defense.  I feel bad for the ADA officers.  I mean, what do they do after they make Major?  Manage Wal-Marts? 

All of this is a step up in aid and heavy equipment.  An "escalation" as it were.  It seems Pooter isn't the only one who can play "just the tip". 

Still on the Ukrainian wishlist are tanks and fighters.  Equipment that will require even more training and more logistics and more flights to transport.  It's a shame that nobody in NATO has any light tanks anymore.  Heavy tanks are just too expensive and well, too heavy.  We should have continued to develop the AGS.

All this is putting a dent in US war stock.  Particularly for newer stuff like Javelins.  I havn't heard of new US orders for equipment.  I think short of entering the war, being the "arsenal of democracy" is a good thing, but we need to be producing to replace the stuff we are shipping to Ukraine.  Except for the older stuff like the 155s and the 113s. 

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #506 on: April 21, 2022, 03:20:54 PM »
All these lives, all these recourses, all this money... and what will be achieved, whos lives will benefit not to mention the damage done to the earth.
War is the 21 century pointless, stupide , absurd.

And what will the lesson will we take away... bigger army's. What a waist

yossarian22c

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #507 on: April 21, 2022, 03:44:49 PM »
All these lives, all these recourses, all this money... and what will be achieved, whos lives will benefit not to mention the damage done to the earth.
War is the 21 century pointless, stupide , absurd.

And what will the lesson will we take away... bigger army's. What a waist

Yes a waste. But better that than a world dominated by China and Russia.

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #508 on: April 21, 2022, 04:18:10 PM »
All these lives, all these recourses, all this money... and what will be achieved, whos lives will benefit not to mention the damage done to the earth.
War is the 21 century pointless, stupide , absurd.

And what will the lesson will we take away... bigger army's. What a waist

Yes a waste. But better that than a world dominated by China and Russia.

Its the domination by military force that is absurd, something I think China gets. There are 'better smarter' ways to dominate.

By 'better' I'm not assigning moral value. I get that if a country was being dominated in the 'better' way they might wish to use military's force to stop it. But that ought to be the last option. Better to fine other means then blowing everything up.

Russian has zero grounds for war. Its completely pointless. I'm waiting for the Russian people to come to that realization. the people of Russia people gain nothing even if they win
« Last Edit: April 21, 2022, 04:21:39 PM by rightleft22 »

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #509 on: April 21, 2022, 06:38:06 PM »
Russian has zero grounds for war. Its completely pointless. I'm waiting for the Russian people to come to that realization. the people of Russia people gain nothing even if they win

I don't know if the majority of the Russians really see it that way.  Some of them do, but I don't think the majority of them do.  I think the majority of Russians, particularly the rural ones, see the Ukraine as a kind of break away country that rightly belongs with Russia as part of a supernation superpower.  They see themselves as one people really, and themselves (Russians) the victims of central and western European powers and the United States wanting to break them up and keep them poor.  They see Ukraine as under the evil influence of the United States, NATO, and the shareholders of Chase Manhattan. 

I don't think it is that hard to imagine if you consider how some people would feel if the United States suffered some kind of economic collapse and breakup with someone around to blame for it.  People from Ohio who are "nationalists" may indeed feel that Texas is, with Ohio, part of something bigger and that they should be brought back, by force if necessary, against the evil machinations of Mexico and China, etc. 

I think it's wrong.  But people are crazy stupid everywhere.  I think the Russian people have drunk deep from the BS that has been thrown at them by Pooter and the Russian super-nationalists.

 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #510 on: April 22, 2022, 05:06:59 PM »
France providing Caesar self propelled 155s (propelled by a truck chassis, not an enclosed tracked chassis).   (Why on earth would the French make a weapons systems named after an Italian that conquered France?  OK, a Roman that conquered Gaul.  It's actually an acronym.  Straight out of GI Joe/Cobra.  CAmion Équipé d'un Système d'ARtillerie.  Means "truck with an artillery piece".)

Canada providing M777 towed 155s.

But the Dutch apparently win the artillery Santa Claus award for giving over PzH 2000 self propelled 155s (enclosed and tracked). 

So it's apparently Gunbunny Christmas for the Ukrainian Army.  St Barbara about to be the next patron saint of Ukraine, next to St Olga, St Josaphat, and Our Lady of the Javelin. 

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #511 on: April 22, 2022, 05:38:54 PM »
I hope its not to late and wonder if that will change how the Russians seem to deploy. Those long convoys just begging to be taken out.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #512 on: April 23, 2022, 08:17:30 AM »
I hope its not to late and wonder if that will change how the Russians seem to deploy. Those long convoys just begging to be taken out.

It's probably a bit late for what is going on now, which doesn't seem to be too much but it's still early and the original reports said the Russians wouldn't have all their ducks lined up til the 26th.  A timeline which has probably been disrupted. 

Trainers need to be trained in Germany or the US or wherever.  Then they need to go back and train the operators.  Then you need a real air logistics campaign flying everything into Poland, or using trains to bring them from France, Holland, etc.  Offload.  Turn over to new troops somewhere in Western Ukraine. Put them back on another train and bring them to Eastern Ukraine.  Disembark.  Link up with assigned units.  Two months at the least is my guess.  Maybe one month for some of the stuff. 

The Russians have always had problems with their traffic jams.  Security means staying minimum 50 m apart when artillery is a threat. It slows things down, makes command and control a bit more difficult.  I guess we'll see how the Russians can learn from their mistakes.  Havn't seen a lot of evidence for it. 

The most glaring thing missing is heavy tanks.  Which are going to take a bunch more time to train on, and even more time to train mechanics on.  Especially for the ones with turbine engines.  But that's just the Abrams.  It would take awhile to get them from the US.  We have plenty extra in Germany stored up.  Just started giving Poland 200. But I wouldn't recommend M1s.  The logistics tail is too big because of the engine.  The best solution would be Leopard 2s from Germany, but the Germans  ::)  . 

Still nothing on for fighter jets.  Heard they are at least getting spare parts.  Now would be the time to train people to fly F-15Cs.  Not sure about F-16s.  The air to ground capability can triple the length of training.  I suppose it couldn't hurt to start.  No telling how long this thing can last between Russia and Ukraine if it stays stalemated.  I keep hearing how Russia cannot keep the war up, but I was hearing the same BS about how the Russian Army couldn't stay in the field for much longer back in late February.  Staying in the field is what armies do, and suffering is what Russians do.  It's the normal state of affairs. 

What we really need to do is get those MiG-29s to them and then figure out a way to get AIM-120s to work on MiG-29s. 

Here is to a very long war in Ukraine, which will apparently make the shareholders of Chase Manhattan and the American public happy, or the shareholders of Raytheon, and the Germans taking money from Russia.  Whatever.  Since we don't want to end the war in a week. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #513 on: April 23, 2022, 10:58:28 AM »
Day 57 of "Forever War III".  (They last forever when certain people don't want to fight or win). 

Russians have declared victory in Mariupol.  The Ukrainians are still have 1,500 or more troops holed up in the Azovstal Steel Plant and the port area.  But the Russians have basically stopped trying to root them out.  They're just going to starve them. No telling how long that is going to take.  Or if the Ukrainians are managing to get supplies in somehow from the sea.  The Azovstal steel plant is a maze of tunnels and bunkers.  The tunnels go as far as six stories underground and the area was built to withstand a nuclear attack.  One analyst I've read suggests the only way to clear it out would be to use chemical weapons. 

Counter-attacks made by the Ukrainians southeast of Kharkiv earlier in the week seem to have been consolidated, but have gone no further towards cutting the supply routes for the Russians attempting to attack south of Izium.  The Russians did have to move their MSR for the Russians south of Izium from Belgorod to the Valuyki Kupaiansk rail line.  Further attacks southeast of Kharkiv by the Ukrainians could cut this rail line, but would require advancing 50 to 70km.  Other options include SOF operations to damage rail lines or blow bridges.  Any such attack now would probably face counterattack by the Russians in Izium, since they have not pushed far enough south towards Barvinkove or Slovyansk.  Intel seems to point at the Izium area as the main thrust for the Russians new campaign to take the Donbas.  So far, probing attacks against the Ukrainian positions have not yielded any gains.  The forward edge of the Russian lines are now 20 km from Barvinkove.  Taking the rail station would cut the main rail line of supply for the Ukrainian forces in the Severdonetsk Salient and the Donets Line.  They are probably already within striking distance if they decide to bring their artillery up. 

Large scale attacks on the Severodonetsk Salient.  Doesn't look like a bunch of gains yet. 

Nothing yet seems to indicate the Russians are pulling forces out of the siege of Mariupol to attack northwest towards Pokrovsk. 

Declaring victory in Mariupol seems to be a desperate Russian attempt to get a victory somewhere, after the failure of the northern front to seize Kyiv and the loss of the Moskva. 

Most glaring is the Ukrainian failure to capitalize on their earlier counterattacks during the week.  They are either waiting for the Russians to put their heads deeper in the sack, or they do not have the forces or logistics capable of making a 50-70km armored/mechanized advance.  Or they are choosing not to counter-attack for whatever reason.  Caution.  Lack of confidence.  Defensive mentality.  Whatever.   

Nothing has changed on my earlier assessments.  Likely that the war continues on through May or longer, with stalemate being the order of business until the Russians break politically or the Ukrainians get more heavy weapons and air defense capabilities.  The Ukrainian air defenses in the Donbas do not seem to be on the same level as the air defense around Kyiv. 

It's good the Ukrainians are getting all these artillery pieces and drones and air defense platforms, but I don't know what their fuel status is right now.  Nobody has been talking about their logistics, other than the things they ask for on their Christmas lists.  I guess they have enough fuel and fuel trucks.  The Russians have not, I think, began using strategic bombers against targets other than Mariupol.  This could weaken Ukrainian defenses in Severodonetsk and the Donets Line. 

The endgame is still coming.  Just being kicked down the road. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #514 on: April 23, 2022, 01:31:13 PM »
Heh heh.  Turkey will no longer allow Russia to fly it's warplanes through Turkish airspace to get to Syria.  Somebody said they would have to fly through Iran, but I don't see how they would not also have to fly through Iraq as well.  Pretty much screws Russia's operations in Syria. 

Good day. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #515 on: April 23, 2022, 02:45:34 PM »
Zelensky says Blinken and Austin are coming to visit on Easter (Eastern Orthodox), tomorrow.  Not sure if this was a security slip or not.  I don't think the Democrats will let Grandpa President go.  They freaked out over the idea of him going when Zelensky first made the invitation about a month ago.   He's not just the President of the United States to them.  He's kinda like the John Connor of the Democratic Party.  If he dies, the machines will win and the Democratic Party fall. 

Good for Blinkin and Austin.  Should send the VP as well if Grandpa President isn't going to go.  But whatever.  Honestly, Blinkin and Austin would be the best choices.  You could send SACEUR or CJCS but they may defect, lol. 





 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #516 on: April 25, 2022, 10:59:58 AM »
Somebody is blowing stuff up in Russia.  Fuel depots.  Office buildings in Moscow. 

Don't know who it is.  Don't know how.  But whomever they are, they're doing it pretty well. 

SBU? SZR?  PSU?  CIA?  MI6?  Russian disaffected? 

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #517 on: April 25, 2022, 12:19:36 PM »
My guess is that once Russia solidify their gains they will declare victory perhaps hoping that the US "accepts" the situation as it did when the Crimea was taken
 
Politically in the US I expect to see a more focused move towards Putin, justifying his actions.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #518 on: April 25, 2022, 12:21:26 PM »
Or Putin himself. Either to pull a frame job like he did with Chechnya, or to take out people he didn't like with even more impunity? Probably not the fuel depot though.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #519 on: April 25, 2022, 01:17:47 PM »
My guess is that once Russia solidify their gains they will declare victory perhaps hoping that the US "accepts" the situation as it did when the Crimea was taken
 
Politically in the US I expect to see a more focused move towards Putin, justifying his actions.

Problem is that Pooter hasn't achieved any of his stated goals in Ukraine.  He can continue to move the goalposts, as he did with Kyiv, but he's running out of opportunities to spin a victory.  He doesn't seem to be doing well taking the rest of the Donbas.  He is barely holding on to Kherson.  He's running out of time and nobody seems to be running to support the end of the war except the certain elements most afraid of "World War 3!TM" and the straight up Putinverstehen. 

The moves to justify Putin have gotten nowhere.  Yes, they are out there, but they're being clobbered.  Nobody but the fringe is accepting their BS that they have been shoveling for 8 years since Crimea anymore.   Ukraine is one of the only major bipartisan things we have going now. 

Every day Ukraine grows stronger and Russia grows weaker.  The endgame is coming.  Prepare your souls. 

rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #520 on: April 25, 2022, 03:33:23 PM »
Putin has been pretty successful in moving goalposts and framing the narrative in the past. I hope your right though

Quote
The moves to justify Putin have gotten nowhere, Ukraine is one of the only major bipartisan things we have going now
Lately when the conversation of Ukraine has come I hear the comment that Ukraine did/does have a problems with White supremist/"Nazi" organizations within its boarders. Those stating this fact are not pro Putin. 
I ask them why they bring up that piece of information and they don't usually have a answer. Just stating a fact. A seed planted and repeated by those that don't consciously imply anything by it. Still the seed, watered, becomes a tree.

It works as you end up debating the problem of Nazi like originations instead of the fact that Russia had zero cause invade. 

msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #521 on: April 25, 2022, 03:42:06 PM »
Hell we have a Nazi problem.  Maybe Russia should invade us to help us get rid of it.  Make Tucker Carlson the head of the Dept of Government Information.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #522 on: April 25, 2022, 03:48:14 PM »
They have made a big impression on "Conservapedia" which I was blissfully ignorant of until today.

Quote
NATO-backed neo-Nazis attacked the Donbas on February 14, 2022.[4][5][6] Military forces of the Russian Federation (RF) entered Ukraine on February 24, 2022 to put an end to the ethnic violence and de-nazify the areas where the children and grandchildren of World War II Nazi collaborators had been carrying an ethnic hatred of Russians since the Holodomor of the 1930s and earlier. A wave of patriotism swept over Russian society, viewing the operation as a second Great Patriotic War.[7] Soldiers felt they were sent to finish the job of de-nazifying Ukraine that their fathers and grandfathers left unfinished at the after of World War II. The use civilian human shields by the U.S-trained Armed Forces of Ukraine led to civilian casualties in several instances. Ukrainian security forces committed reprisal actions and atrocities against ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in areas which Russian forces vacated. Numerous attacks by Ukrainian forces on its own citizens, which had been ongoing in the Donbas region for the eight previous years, spread outside the Donbas to create false flag images of attacks by Russians. By early April 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had been so degraded and decimated, or were out of fuel and unable to retreat, the Maidan regime relied even more heavily on soft power, psychological operations and propaganda war to garner sympathy from the West for continued support.

Bizarro world

msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #523 on: April 25, 2022, 04:01:13 PM »
My eyes!!!!!!!

What have you done to my eyes?

yossarian22c

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #524 on: April 25, 2022, 04:05:55 PM »
They have made a big impression on "Conservapedia" which I was blissfully ignorant of until today.
...

The Russian propaganda machine has found receptive audiences in right wing nationalist audiences throughout the US and Europe. Or maybe Conservapedia is as dead as truth social so the Russian propagandists are speaking to themselves.

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #525 on: April 26, 2022, 03:38:50 PM »
Russia sends diplomatic note to Washington, demanding that SECDEF Austin stop hugging DEFMIN of Ukraine Reznikov, calling it an escalation. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #526 on: April 26, 2022, 03:55:29 PM »

The Russian propaganda machine has found receptive audiences in right wing nationalist audiences throughout the US and Europe.

Ehhhh. 

Which kind of nationalists? 

I don't mean to derail, but just a brief spur before getting back on the main track:

Cause I don't think Russia is attracting the hard core white nationalists.  Russia says they are invading to "de-nazify", suggesting nazis are bad.  Probably not great for nazi fans. 

The white bread nationalists probably are not on board either.  Since what Ukraine is doing is the very definition of late 1800s, early 1900s nationalism.  Like, Ukrainians are a people and has been a separate country and should remain a different country. 

In the middle are some people who might think they are nationalists, or say they are nationalists, but they are really just radicalized anti-progressives.  To the point that anybody who is stomping the gays, or the euros, or the woke, or the libs, or immigrants, or the rich globalists, are their new heroes.  Guys that write for The American Conservative.  Some of the people who wish they write for The American Conservative but unfortunately write for National Review because the fervent anti-populists left in 2018/2019 and they needed somebody to write for them and they're just not crazy enough for The American Conservative.  Their heroes are The Great 5th Grade Communicator and Orban and LePen and Pooter.  Because they trigger the left.  Because they have an enemy and anyone who attacks their enemy is their friend.  You know, Tucker Carlson, Greg Gutfeld, Rod Dreher, Rich Lowery, Michael Brendan Doherty, and Sohrab Amari.  The people whose hatred of Hillary Clinton is only equaled by their hatred of David French.   Honestly, they probably hate David French more, because Hillary Clinton completely ignores then while David French does not.  Trumpists.  Not nationalists, white or otherwise. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #527 on: April 26, 2022, 04:17:12 PM »
Unconfirmed reports that the Russians are breaking through south of Izium, towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and Barvinkove.  It seems like the itel that the big push would be on the 26th might have been correct.  If it's true, it's bad news for the Ukrainians in the Sverodonetsk salient. 

Waiting on confirmation.

I expect Slovyansk and Kramatorsk to have defense in depth.  But with what kinds of units, I don't know. 

If the big push is happening, this would now be the time for the Ukrainians to hit hard south of Kharkiv again.   


Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #528 on: April 26, 2022, 04:32:49 PM »
Barry McCaffrey, hero of Desert Storm, commander of the 24th ID in greatest flanking maneuver in history of warfare, and old Drug Czar, who has been warning about American involvement in Ukraine and "World War 3!TM" on MSNBC for the past two months, suddenly cannot fathom why Pooter would threaten nuclear war over a failed conventional invasion!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Where is the emjoi of my head exploding!

"I've dealt with nuclear strategy much of my life" he writes. 

What is with it with smart people? 

It was never about American or NATO troops shooting at Russian troops. It's never been about that. It's been about losing.  Now Pooter is losing in Ukraine, so he's threatening nuclear war.  I said this a month ago.  Two months ago. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #529 on: April 26, 2022, 05:07:53 PM »
There has always been an underlying worry about how the war in Ukraine could spill over back into Russian territory.  It was one of the concerns in the early air war, particularly if NATO or the US actually got involved. It continued to be a concern up til now, since Ukraine has the opportunity to strike targets in Russia using NATO supplied equipment.  It has to be a concern in the future if Ukraine wins the war and starts wondering about grabbing Rostov Oblast with NATO supplied equipment. 

The UK somewhat clarified their view, with their Minister of Defense, James Heappey stating that attacks on Russian soil using western equipment was "legitmate".  As Omar Little would say, "It's all part of the game".  This follows suspected Ukrainian attacks on an oil depot in Belgorod.  Lavrov has said this means that the NATO arms shipments in Poland are now fair game. 

As the Joker would say "Cumon, I want you to do it. HIT ME!". 

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #530 on: April 26, 2022, 05:28:17 PM »
Grant, any idea if the Jews will let Ukraine borrow their space laser?

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #531 on: April 26, 2022, 06:01:52 PM »
Grant, any idea if the Jews will let Ukraine borrow their space laser?

If they'd ever get to there in those long ass Illuminati meetings.  They spend too much time drinking blood out of the skulls of Goyim.  Personally, I'm disappointed that the weather control satellites are not on the table.  Or at least some Iron Dome missiles. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #532 on: April 27, 2022, 04:16:07 PM »
Unconfirmed reports that the Russians are breaking through south of Izium, towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk and Barvinkove.  It seems like the itel that the big push would be on the 26th might have been correct.  If it's true, it's bad news for the Ukrainians in the Sverodonetsk salient. 

Ok.  So the latest from the Ukrainian General Staff is that the Russians advanced from Izium but were stopped around Nova Dymtrivka.  This is sure an advance by the Russians of about 10 km, but not really a breakthrough. 

Nova Dymtrivka is just a village to the NE of Barvnikove, only about 12 klicks away.  So the railhead is definitely within artillery range if they bring their guns up. 


In other news, the Ukrainians also hit an ammo dump in Belgorod, continuing their magical attacks into Russia, with either stealth UAVs or SOF teams, or maybe even Russian saboteurs. 

Russians making more noise about attacking Poland to stop flow of foreign weapons into Ukraine.

Wesley Clark/CNN > Barry McCaffrey/MSNBC.  Feel sorry for Jack Keane at FNC.  He really doesn't have anybody to pitch to him over there.  Bill Hemmer and Dana Perino just cannot compete with people like Wolf Blitzer.  Sad. 

Russia cutting off the gas to Poland and Bulgaria.  It's already been brought up, but supporting the war effort isn't just about weapons and intel.  It's also going to be about economic support.  The money Ukraine is going to need to rebuild and become the West Germany of Eastern Europe is going to dwarf the money we have spent so far on weapons aid.  This economic support needs to include energy support in the form of LNG for Europe.  We have plenty.  We need to encourage the energy sector to start moving.  The industry needs to ramp up fast.  Europe needs to do their part and bring back nuclear energy.  The alternative is millions of Europeans with no power, their economies taking a massive hit, and people freezing to death in the winter. 


rightleft22

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #533 on: April 27, 2022, 06:26:41 PM »
Any rumblings coming from Chechnya

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #534 on: April 27, 2022, 07:15:56 PM »
Any rumblings coming from Chechnya

None that I know of.  I know the Chechens sent some troops to help Russia, and some Chechens are allied with Ukraine.  I think there were some videos linking the Chechens under Kadyrov to the siege of Mariupol.  Some analysts have shown the videos to be not exactly forthcoming in what they are purporting.  (They say they are filming from Ukraine, gas station behind them shows they are in Russia, etc).  That's about it. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #535 on: April 30, 2022, 08:44:00 AM »
Been awhile since an update:

Russians continue attacks along the Donets Line and Sverodonetsk Salient.  Main push seems to be coming south from Izium.  That's nothing new. 

Russians are not breaking through but are inching closer to Barvikove.  They don't seem to have pushed past Kurulka or Nova Dmitrivka.  So no real advances in the last few days.  So much for the "main effort". 

Heavy fighting around Severdonetsk.  But no advances there either. 

The Ukrainians have not made any major counteroffensives.  The latest movement is actually coming from north of Kharkiv, looks like Ukrainians are trying to attack on the Russian far right flank, cutting off the Russians falling back around Kharkiv from their line of retreat back to Belgorod. 

The Russians do appear to be advancing on the axis south of Izium, but it is painfully slow. 

I keep hearing suggestions of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive southeast of Kharkiv.  Hasn't happened yet. 

The rumor mill is starting to go nuts and there are too many grifters now involved in reporting on Ukraine.  It's helpful to remind everyone just how many liars there are in the world, and that they'll often do it just for attention. 

We're not quite in WW1 or in WW2 or GW1 or GW2 or anywhere else.  This feels like two exhausted opponents in the 10th round of a fight, just trying to throw a punch now and then. 

Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #536 on: May 01, 2022, 09:49:07 AM »
Update:

Confirmed that Ukrainian reserves have been sent into the Severodonetsk Salient and the area around Slovyansk, instead of being concentrated for a counter-attack southeast of Kharkiv.  This means that the Ukrainian forces in the Salient and fighting south of Izium are not strong enough or have been degraded enough that they cannot withstand the Russian attacks by themselves.  This means more grinding, no sweeping Ukrainian counterattack that can end the war in Donbas. 

The Russians are piling on the attacks south of Izium and around Severodonetsk.  They are making very slow grinding progress, but progress nonetheless.  At this rate it could take weeks or months to effect a breakthrough or Russian victory.  But the Russians are currently gaining ground.  The hard part has always been and will remain just how degraded the Ukrainians are after 2+ months of fighting. 

The Ukrainians have had some success counterattacking around Kharkiv.  Some people say that this will draw the Russians back to reinforce, but I don't agree.  I think the Russians can retreat back across the Russian border and they'll be safe there.  I don't think the Ukrainians will send large ground formations into Russia.  There are some reasons that it would be a good idea and some reasons that it would be a bad idea, but I don't think they will do it.  So the Ukrainians will just have to sit on the border because they cannot redeploy as long as the Russians are sitting getting fat and happy right across the border.  What they NVA would do in Laos and Cambodia before we started bombing there, but never sending large ground formations for fear of "expanding the war". 

Rumors that the Russians are going to declare actual war, (not just a "special operation") and general mobilize on the 5th of May.  Or was it the 9th of May?  They got May Day and Victory Day.  Anyways, what does this mean?

There are plenty of people who do not believe that the Russians can really mobilize much better than they already have.  In certain aspects they are correct.  The Russians cannot really make more advanced equipment (tanks, IFV, artillery, ballistic missiles, etc).  They have some old stuff in storage but it's really old.  T-64s and T-55s.  What they can do is make Rife Divisions.  Going back old school WW2 Soviet infantry formations.  They have plenty of AK-47s.  How many can they make?  I don't know, but I guess they can make ten to 20 Rifle divisions easy if they want to.  That's a lot of Russians, and it's basically going back to the old Soviet way of war anyways.  Quantity having a quality all of it's own. 

The only think I would hesitate on is that they don't really have an officer corps sitting around on the wings to lead these Rifle Divisions.  They would have to mobilize a whole bunch of old reservists to man them. 

Anyways, the thing the Russians have always had is manpower.  They can try to fall back on that and see how it works in a modern war.  Americans were always forced to fall back on superior artillery and airpower when faced with similar adversaries in Korea and Vietnam.  Ukraine doesn't have a whole lot of airpower and is just now getting more artillery that will take a while to integrate. 


Grant

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #537 on: May 01, 2022, 01:28:18 PM »
Briefly:

Ukrainians claiming they wounded Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, in a high level meeting in Izium, after he was sent by Pooter to pit some fire in the Russian offensive. Claims he was wounded bad enough he was flown back to Moscow. Shrapnel in leg.

Demonstrates the value and abity of the Ukrainian intel gathering, and NATO intel gathering being shared. 

UN led evacuation of civilians from Azovstal. Good for the UN. First thing Ive heard them getting done in awhile.

msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #538 on: May 09, 2022, 11:18:54 AM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-didnt-seem-care-law-143426322.html

Trump helped Putin by holding up assistance for Ukraine.  I wonder if he was under orders by his pal Putin to hold it up?  I mean they were such buddies.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #539 on: May 17, 2022, 04:08:58 PM »
Well now, I know a certain producer who is likely to have an accident for booking this guest.

Quote
Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".

Ouija Nightmare

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #540 on: May 17, 2022, 04:39:25 PM »
Well now, I know a certain producer who is likely to have an accident for booking this guest.

Quote
Russia's mainstream media outlets offer a view of the Ukraine war that is unlike anything seen from outside of the country. For a start, they don't even call it a war. But our Russia editor reflects on a rare exchange broadcast on state TV.

It was an extraordinary piece of television.

The programme was 60 Minutes, the flagship twice-daily talk show on Russian state TV: studio discussion that promotes the Kremlin line on absolutely everything, including on President Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine.

The Kremlin still maintains that the Russian offensive is going according to plan.

But on Monday night, studio guest Mikhail Khodarenok, a military analyst and retired colonel, painted a very different picture.

He warned that "the situation [for Russia] will clearly get worse" as Ukraine receives additional military assistance from the West and that "the Ukrainian army can arm a million people".


Hmm looks like a pivot to me. They’ve always claimed that Ukraine is being used as a stooge for the west now they’re needing to build a case for how the Ukraine is even more dangerous than they realized and opens the path to using more serious weapons and painting a portrait of how it’s the West’s weapons that are killing young Russian men and not the stupid blunders of Russian leadership,


cherrypoptart

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #541 on: May 17, 2022, 09:33:50 PM »
https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-didnt-seem-care-law-143426322.html

"Trump helped Putin by holding up assistance for Ukraine.  I wonder if he was under orders by his pal Putin to hold it up?  I mean they were such buddies."

Or he was schmoozing the bear like he did the Taliban, rope a doping them so they wouldn't be provoked into all out war. Trumped billed himself as a great negotiator and wheeler-dealer.  Biden? Not so much, not from the man who has been proven incompetent over his decades in office as being on the wrong side of history time after time after time.


Whatever Trump did resulted in Putin not further invading Ukraine and the Taliban not taking over Afghanistan under his watch. Biden did an about face and unleashed hell in both places.

jc44

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #542 on: May 18, 2022, 06:32:28 AM »
Whatever Trump did resulted in Putin not further invading Ukraine and the Taliban not taking over Afghanistan under his watch. Biden did an about face and unleashed hell in both places.
I'm not sure you can reasonably credit Trump with those non-disasters any more than you can blame him for existence of Covid.  Those are things that happened when he was in charge no more no less.

The Afghanistan debacle was Trumps plan executed (arguably poorly) by Biden with immediate consequences that no-one, on any side as far as I can tell, expected. Pretty much everyone expected the Afghan government to collapse, but no-one expected how fast it was going to be. And it would have collapsed if Trump was in charge too, the details might have been different but any assertion that it would have been worse/better is based purely on Faith not facts.

Can't say as to Ukraine.  My personal expectation is that Putin would have executed his "Special Military Operation" and Trump would have stood back and said that he was just reclaiming what was his anyway.  And whilst I can't know that it does fit with Trumps general inclination to reduce Americas military presence around the world.

I have no evidence that Trump caused Covid. And I don't think he did though of course it might have been some really cunning plot and the Chinese are in fact right when they say it was deliberated seeded in China by America to discredit them as part of Trumps long term anti-China campaign - that fits doesn't it!?

cherrypoptart

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #543 on: May 18, 2022, 06:47:09 AM »
What was Trump's Afghanistan plan anyway?

Wasn't there some provision in it that the Taliban wouldn't immediately attack city after city to take over the entire country? It seems like the deal was that we would leave and the Taliban wouldn't attack everyone everywhere.

As soon as the Taliban started attacking cities, it seems like Trump's plan, and any plan except apparently Biden's, would have called for another surge to keep the Taliban at bay since the Taliban reneged on their side of the bargain.

Unless of course the plan called for us to evacuate no matter what and the Taliban to take over. Was that the agreement either Trump or Biden made? That part of the deal never made the news.


NobleHunter

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #544 on: May 18, 2022, 08:41:33 AM »
Putin might have held off on Ukraine in hopes that Trump would dismantle NATO.

LetterRip

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #545 on: May 18, 2022, 10:22:17 AM »
Putin couldn't afford to invade Ukraine until oil prices increased and he built up a warchest.  That didn't happen until Trump threatened Saudi Arabia to increase oil prices or lose military exports from the US,

Quote
In an April 2 phone call, Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that unless the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) started cutting oil production, he would be powerless to stop lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the kingdom, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The threat to upend a 75-year strategic alliance, which has not been previously reported, was central to the U.S. pressure campaign that led to a landmark global deal to slash oil supply as demand collapsed in the coronavirus pandemic - scoring a diplomatic victory for the White House.

Trump delivered the message to the crown prince 10 days before the announcement of production cuts. The kingdom’s de facto leader was so taken aback by the threat that he ordered his aides out of the room so he could continue the discussion in private, according to a U.S. source who was briefed on the discussion by senior administration officials.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-trump-saudi-specialreport/special-report-trump-told-saudi-cut-oil-supply-or-lose-u-s-military-support-sources-idUSKBN22C1V4

That deal was negotiated to last until April 2022.

That took Putin from being completely unable to afford invading the Ukraine, to having funds greatly in excess of what was anticipated.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2022, 10:29:12 AM by LetterRip »

LetterRip

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #546 on: May 18, 2022, 10:34:16 AM »
What was Trump's Afghanistan plan anyway?

Wasn't there some provision in it that the Taliban wouldn't immediately attack city after city to take over the entire country? It seems like the deal was that we would leave and the Taliban wouldn't attack everyone everywhere.

The deal was essentially the Taliban got the country and the US would leave the country and do nothing to interfere as long as US troops were not attacked.

Quote
As soon as the Taliban started attacking cities, it seems like Trump's plan, and any plan except apparently Biden's, would have called for another surge to keep the Taliban at bay since the Taliban reneged on their side of the bargain.

Nope, Trump completely surrendered to the Taliban in his treaty.  He had zero intention of the US military doing anything.  The Taliban didn't "reneg".  Trump pulled out the troops (illegally) that were necessary to maintain security, in the months before handover to Biden, so that it would be logistically impossible for Biden to reverse what Trump had done.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2022, 10:38:58 AM by LetterRip »

msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #547 on: May 18, 2022, 11:05:59 AM »

msquared

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #548 on: May 19, 2022, 10:54:56 AM »
So what has Putin gained?  He has shown that his army is a paper tiger. He has convinced 2 countries that had remained steadfastly neutral to join NATO, one of which has a border with Russia, which is one of the reasons Putin did not want Ukraine to join NATO.  Fear of the great Russian Army has disappeard.

I wonder if Putins nukes are in as good of shape as the rest of his army?  Of course we don't really want to find out.  If the Nuke forces have been doing the same thing with the money they get as the rest of the Army has been doing, my guess is none of the missles have any fuel in them and maybe not even a bomb.  Or they have been so poorly maintained that they will blow up the second they are launched.

TheDrake

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Re: Ще́дрик, щедри́к, ще́дрівочка
« Reply #549 on: May 19, 2022, 11:07:38 AM »
So what has Putin gained?  He has shown that his army is a paper tiger. He has convinced 2 countries that had remained steadfastly neutral to join NATO, one of which has a border with Russia, which is one of the reasons Putin did not want Ukraine to join NATO.  Fear of the great Russian Army has disappeard.

I wonder if Putins nukes are in as good of shape as the rest of his army?  Of course we don't really want to find out.  If the Nuke forces have been doing the same thing with the money they get as the rest of the Army has been doing, my guess is none of the missles have any fuel in them and maybe not even a bomb.  Or they have been so poorly maintained that they will blow up the second they are launched.

Russia's military credibility appears to have sunk to North Korea levels. Yeah they got nukes, a whole lot of people wearing uniforms, artillery and missiles that can cause a real bad day for neighbors. They're turning themselves into a global pariah, also reminiscent of North Korea. Sanctions, embargoes, currency collapse. And a dictator with an iron grip on power with an increasing total lock on media.