Author Topic: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?  (Read 411 times)

msquared

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So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« on: August 17, 2022, 03:25:29 PM »
Make your predictions now.

I say at least 53-47 Dem/Rep.  Maybe 54/46.

I think they keep GA and move PA (Oz is a joke there).  It looks like they may pick up OH and WI as well.

yossarian22c

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2022, 03:40:57 PM »
I think a 51-49 Dem majority. I think they hold Georgia and pick off Penn. I think everyone else holds the rest. Next most likely is I think 50-50 again with winning in Penn but losing Nevada or Georgia. 52-48 is a great night for the dems. 54/46 is everything going right: economy continuing to improve through election day, Trump going down in flames in the next couple months, no more international disasters, and maybe a surprise Ukrainian breakthrough in the Donbass.

The fact Walker is close to Warnock in Georgia is sick. The man is mentally ill. He clearly has CTE from his years of playing football. Tribalism at its worst.

Tom

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2022, 04:18:45 PM »
Ron Johnson is weak in WI. We can beat him, but only with substantial financial support; he's got the backing of a couple local billionaires who actually are what William seems to think Soros is.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2022, 04:24:48 PM »
Do you mean the Koch Brothers?  Didn't one of them die?

Mynnion

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2022, 06:18:12 PM »
Quote
Ron Johnson is weak in WI. We can beat him, but only with substantial financial support; he's got the backing of a couple local billionaires who actually are what William seems to think Soros is.

No one I know will be voting for him but Madison tends to vote Democrat.

Tom

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2022, 07:04:20 PM »
No, I don't mean the Koch brothers. I mean Diane Henricks and Dick Uihlein.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2022, 08:42:58 PM »
Johnson seems behind in WI right now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/barnes-tops-johnson-7-points-191415595.html

So that would seem to be at least 2 R seats going D.

It seems that since Senators are state wide elections, Republicans are not able to gerrymander their way to victory there.

msquared

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2022, 05:54:43 PM »
Well since the RNSC stopped putting money after Trump supported Dr Oz, he is falling even further behind.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/john-fetterman-holds-13-point-200523864.html

Now 13 points behind Fetterman.  Just listen to Trump whine that McConnel is not supporting Trump's candidate.  This falls squarely on Trump. Trump cost the Republicans the Senate due to the GA runoff 2 years ago and now Trump is going to hand the Dems 2-4 more seats.

yossarian22c

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2022, 09:20:09 AM »
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Things looking slightly better for Dems. Wisconsin is a toss up. Somehow Georgia still is. Guess Walker's handler's are keeping him away from the public. NC and Nevada are both better than a couple weeks ago for the Democrats. Oz is sinking quickly in Pennsylvania. But Vance looks to be holding on in Ohio.

Seriously Georgia, Walker clearly has CTE and is completely erratic. How is that race close? Guess MTG's district clearly doesn't care how crazy the person is as long as they have the R next to their name. But the whole state?

Grant

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Re: So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2022, 06:00:07 PM »
Too much open field between now and November.  Too much that can effect things and no telling how it does. 

What happens with MaLgate?  Incitement?  Arrest?  Nothing?  How will it effect votes?  Will it help Republicans or Democrats?  There is no telling. 

Who opens his mouth the most in the next two months?  Uncle Joe?  The President who Lived (to wave his magical declassification wand)? 

My experience seems to be that whomever talks the most will lose the most votes.  I think a dog would have the best chance of winning the election in Georgia. 

If I had to go with numbers, right now I would go with 51-49 Dems.  But this is a close run thing.  Could be easily 52-48 Dems.  Could be even worse for Rs if McMullin wins in Utah and doesn't caucus with the Republicans.