So what will the Senate split be in Dec 2022?

[msquared]

Make your predictions now.

I say at least 53-47 Dem/Rep.  Maybe 54/46.

I think they keep GA and move PA (Oz is a joke there).  It looks like they may pick up OH and WI as well.

[yossarian22c]

I think a 51-49 Dem majority. I think they hold Georgia and pick off Penn. I think everyone else holds the rest. Next most likely is I think 50-50 again with winning in Penn but losing Nevada or Georgia. 52-48 is a great night for the dems. 54/46 is everything going right: economy continuing to improve through election day, Trump going down in flames in the next couple months, no more international disasters, and maybe a surprise Ukrainian breakthrough in the Donbass.

The fact Walker is close to Warnock in Georgia is sick. The man is mentally ill. He clearly has CTE from his years of playing football. Tribalism at its worst.

[Tom]

Ron Johnson is weak in WI. We can beat him, but only with substantial financial support; he's got the backing of a couple local billionaires who actually are what William seems to think Soros is.

[msquared]

Do you mean the Koch Brothers?  Didn't one of them die?

[Mynnion]

Ron Johnson is weak in WI. We can beat him, but only with substantial financial support; he's got the backing of a couple local billionaires who actually are what William seems to think Soros is.

No one I know will be voting for him but Madison tends to vote Democrat.

[Tom]

No, I don't mean the Koch brothers. I mean Diane Henricks and Dick Uihlein.

[msquared]

Johnson seems behind in WI right now.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/barnes-tops-johnson-7-points-191415595.html

So that would seem to be at least 2 R seats going D.

It seems that since Senators are state wide elections, Republicans are not able to gerrymander their way to victory there.

[msquared]

Well since the RNSC stopped putting money after Trump supported Dr Oz, he is falling even further behind.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/john-fetterman-holds-13-point-200523864.html

Now 13 points behind Fetterman.  Just listen to Trump whine that McConnel is not supporting Trump's candidate.  This falls squarely on Trump. Trump cost the Republicans the Senate due to the GA runoff 2 years ago and now Trump is going to hand the Dems 2-4 more seats.

[yossarian22c]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/

Things looking slightly better for Dems. Wisconsin is a toss up. Somehow Georgia still is. Guess Walker's handler's are keeping him away from the public. NC and Nevada are both better than a couple weeks ago for the Democrats. Oz is sinking quickly in Pennsylvania. But Vance looks to be holding on in Ohio.

Seriously Georgia, Walker clearly has CTE and is completely erratic. How is that race close? Guess MTG's district clearly doesn't care how crazy the person is as long as they have the R next to their name. But the whole state?

[Grant]

Too much open field between now and November.  Too much that can effect things and no telling how it does. 

What happens with MaLgate?  Incitement?  Arrest?  Nothing?  How will it effect votes?  Will it help Republicans or Democrats?  There is no telling. 

Who opens his mouth the most in the next two months?  Uncle Joe?  The President who Lived (to wave his magical declassification wand)? 

My experience seems to be that whomever talks the most will lose the most votes.  I think a dog would have the best chance of winning the election in Georgia. 

If I had to go with numbers, right now I would go with 51-49 Dems.  But this is a close run thing.  Could be easily 52-48 Dems.  Could be even worse for Rs if McMullin wins in Utah and doesn't caucus with the Republicans. 

[yossarian22c]

Walker is still close in Georgia. OMG Republicans WTF??? Is the Republican party seeing how bad a candidate they can put out and still see if they can get votes?

[msquared]

Why not? They did it with the President and won.

[yossarian22c]

Just bumping this thread so we can all see how we did tomorrow or later. Georgia could be a run off. Pennsylvania will be slow because of their mail ballot counting rules. Polls definitely were going badly for dems.

538's most likely outcomes listed by highest likelyhood.
17.7% 51R 49D
16.3% 52R 48D
15.3% 50R 50D
12.7% 53R 47D
11.7% 49R 51D
7.7%  54R 36D
7.5% 48R 52D
4%   47R 53D
Others are all 2% or less.

The closest 5 races are all basically toss ups. If the polls were off slightly one way or the other either party could sweep all 5 of those. Democrats need them all. The next 3 races were there a reasonable chance of either outcome all favor Republicans significantly (Wi, NC, Ohio). I'm still hoping that Warnock and Fetterman pull off their races against some horrible Republican candidates and the senate stays 50/50. But barring a reverse of the 2016 election predictions not a good looking night for the Democrats.

[yossarian22c]

Democrats seem to have held everywhere except Nevada which is still to close to call. Kelly isn't certain in Arizona yet but has a nice lead. I'm penciling in Warnock in Georgia. If Walker couldn't ride Kemp's coattails to win, its unlikely voters are going to show up in enough numbers for him in December. Looks like Democrats are going to break even or be +1 in the Senate. That will be good for Biden to be able to continue appointing officials and judges. Crossing my fingers they eliminate the debt ceiling in the lame duck session. I really don't want another two years of economic brinkmanship. 

[Grant]

I'm penciling in Warnock in Georgia. If Walker couldn't ride Kemp's coattails to win, its unlikely voters are going to show up in enough numbers for him in December.

I would not underestimate Georgia.  The race in Georgia is going to go to a runoff and the tenser it is the more the GOP will rally around Walker, despite however many flaws he might have.  Before, he was one among many.  Now he will be presented as the "last bastion".  I recall keenly how much the GOP rallied around Loeffler in the runoff in 2020.  It's true she still lost, but there were other factors. 

Georgia may be the Kobayashi Maru of the Declassifier's campaign.  If he attempts to re-assert himself as a GOP powerhouse, he will most likely cause Walker to lose.  If he stays away to give Walker a better chance, if Walker were to actually win he would be seen as a non-entity because he didn't help.  Same as if he stayed away and Walker lost.  Georgia is L'Orange's Waterloo.  Georgia plus Pennsylvania and Arizona.  He can't win there apparently. 

[Wayward Son]

If AZ and NV go Democrat, then they got their 50 and stay in control.  GA won't be nearly as important then, since it would only determine if Joe Manchin keeps his power.

But if NV goes Republican, expect a lot of money to go into the GA runoff.  Electoral-vote.com mentioned perhaps a billion dollars between the two sides. Because (again!) it would all come down to GA.

[msquared]

Well it looks like the Senate will be at least 50/50 with the possibility of a 51/49 split depending on GA.

[msquared]

So Murkowski has pulled ahead in Alaska but will not win outright. She is almost 100% sure to win when they get to the ranked choice voting part of their counting later this week. So one more for the Republicans but another loss for Trump

[msquared]

Can Walker in GA really run, since his taxes claim he lives in TX? So either he lied to the people of GA or he lied to the Gov of Texas and committed tax fraud.  Seems like a Trump person to me.

[msquared]

So Trump is listening to his advisors, and others, and staying away from GA for the run off.

[TheDrake]

Republicans are already bent out of shape because college students were able to vote Saturday after Thanksgiving.

[msquared]

Sure seems like Walker is not a Georgian. Wonder why people would vote for a Texan to represent GA.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/georgia-senate-hopeful-herschel-walker-163656101.html

[msquared]

Even Fox thinks Walker is going to lose in GA.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/warnock-walker-poll-shows-leading-171122358.html

[Tom]

And they've called it for Warnock. Thank goodness.

[TheDrake]

Will they have to have his swearing in at a secret location to keep the trump mob from trying to stop it by force.

[msquared]

Well Sinema betrays her party and leaved the Dem caucus. I guess she misses her power position and is taking her ball and going home.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sinema-switches-independent-shaking-senate-110000180.html

[Grant]

I guess she misses her power position and is taking her ball and going home.

I think she's still going to be around til 2025.  Not exactly going home anytime soon. 

Well Sinema betrays her party

LOL.  So serious.  BETRAYS HER PARTY!  Think she'll end up in the 9th Circle of the Inferno?  LOL! 

Dante divides the circle up into four rounds. 

The first is for traitors to their family
The second for traitors to their country
The third is for traitors to their guests
And the last is for traitors to their lords

Which one of these is Sinema bound for?  Betrayal! 

I suppose they can make a new circle for her.  Traitors to their political party.  Can be joined in there with Liz Cheney. 

[TheDrake]

Honestly it reflects her views better than (D). Manchin should as well. She now joins King and Sanders, independents who caucus with Democrats. I do not believe any of the Senators take a loyalty pledge except to the constitution.

[msquared]

I guess I just have an issue with changing once the balance of the Senate had changed. Why not last week? Or last year?  As soon as her power to tip the balance was gone, she did what she could to tip it back to her personally.

[Grant]

I guess I just have an issue with changing once the balance of the Senate had changed. Why not last week? Or last year? 

Because the balance of power had not changed.  Which may be her primary concern.  Though I don't know if anything really changes because of this.  She was already a rogue Democrat.  I suppose it would really *censored* up somebody's bet on MyBookie.com which could cause some consternation, but really isn't Sinema's problem. 

As soon as her power to tip the balance was gone, she did what she could to tip it back to her personally.

If the belief is this is about her personally wanting or gaining power, I suspect she would gain more power by staying with the Democrats or defecting completely to the Republicans.  Going independent means she's kinda cut off and now can't count of Dem $$$.  She basically just committed political suicide. 

[yossarian22c]

...

As soon as her power to tip the balance was gone, she did what she could to tip it back to her personally.

If the belief is this is about her personally wanting or gaining power, I suspect she would gain more power by staying with the Democrats or defecting completely to the Republicans.  Going independent means she's kinda cut off and now can't count of Dem $$$.  She basically just committed political suicide.

I'm not sure it was political suicide. More of a political calculation. She's gambling she can win general elections where she may lose a primary. As long as the margins are within a couple senators she'll have influence on major legislation. How it plays out for her depends on how democrats proceed. Will she lose power on committees? Will they make a 3 way race in Arizona that may give the Republicans the seat? As long as she doesn't caucus with the Republicans and cost the Democrats on leadership they may decide its better to have her than risk a 3 way race and be stuck with a Republican for 6 years. This play wouldn't work in the house. Someone would run against her, and if a Republican won the seat, the Democrats would just try again in 2 years. Risking losing a Democratic leaning independent for a Republican maybe something the Democrats don't want to do, as long as she continues to help get legislation passed. If the Senate margins get to +3, +4 for either party she risks becoming irrelevant to both sides. 

I'm to the left of Sinema, Manchin, Collins, and Mirkowski. But I'm glad they're all Senators. There are too few politicians in the center. The center isn't exciting, it doesn't raise money, doesn't excite the base in primaries. But it usually is better at addressing problems. I wish we were doing more on climate change and economic inequality. But at least with Sinema and Manchin we did something.

[TheDrake]

She'll probably vote for anything that gets past the Republican house and for confirmation of Biden appointees.

[yossarian22c]

She'll probably vote for anything that gets past the Republican house and for confirmation of Biden appointees.

I expect zero legislation passed. I'll be surprised if budgets get through the house. Reasonable budgets won't pass with Republican only votes. So a reasonable (status quo) budget and increase of the debt ceiling will lead to leadership challenges and chaos in the house.

[TheDrake]

Hyperbolic. There are regular pieces of legislation that have near unanimous votes. New spending has zero chance, I hope we won't need an economic stimulus package. Arms to Ukraine will be contentious, but I expect it to pass. Nothing on healthcare, but that's true no matter who controls the chambers as long as the filibuster remains in place, the ACA will remain frozen in time. Nothing on immigration in either direction, frozen.

[yossarian22c]

Hyperbolic. There are regular pieces of legislation that have near unanimous votes. New spending has zero chance, I hope we won't need an economic stimulus package. Arms to Ukraine will be contentious, but I expect it to pass.
...

I'll be pleasantly surprised if the Republican controlled house passes routine spending bills that keep the government functioning. Even if they cut spending a little by ignoring inflation and just pass the same budget as last year. Not the best fiscal planning but anything is better than the Obama days of lets act like we're going to default on the national debt to get "Policy X." Maybe border wall, national abortion ban, Trump reinstated as President, defund the FBI, or something else crazy along those lines. Or no policy propositions at all. Just "less spending" and when they get asked on what they want to spend less on we'll get some vague statements on programs that are less than 0.1% of the federal budget.   

The routine budgets absolutely would pass if put up for a vote by leadership. Democrats would vote for it and enough Republicans would go along for a budget. The problem is that if McCarthy puts forward reasonable budgets his days as leader are numbered. There is a reason both John Boehner and Paul Ryan quit.

[rightleft22]

The core belief of the GOP of small government seems at times to have changed to no governing.
The job is not to do your job,  And working in-service for the people means not working for the people.... what could go wrong.

[TheDrake]

Zero, yoss, zero. That would mean zero, or not a single bill passed man. That's what you were predicting.

1.75% of bills pass by unanimous passage. Many more under suspension of the rules. Let alone with 15 republican votes.

[yossarian22c]

Zero, yoss, zero. That would mean zero, or not a single bill passed man. That's what you were predicting.

1.75% of bills pass by unanimous passage. Many more under suspension of the rules. Let alone with 15 republican votes.

Zero is hyperbolic. But I'm not really counting the naming of the post office in Yuma as legislation. I'll be impressed if they get a budget without threating to blow up the economy over the debt ceiling.