Seems like a bunch of conservatives are starting to realize that the party has a Trump problem.
My guess is they’re praying for him to die suddenly in the next few minutes before the 2024 presidential heats up.
If he doesn’t then it’s going to get really interesting.
News Flash, most of them likely realized it a long time ago.
The problem they have is how many of their party processes work at the local/state level nationwide, and in particular state Primary races. This is also something that the Republicans are uniquely vulnerable to, the Dems have the same problem, as AOC attempted to leverage things to far less success on their end.
The "problem" is they've invested in both a First-past-the-post system for their primaries, and many other party organizational votes. Which means that when you have a race with more than 5 people running in it. (Such as in the 2016 Presidential Primary Race for republicans where they had over a dozen at the start) If the candidates are "compelling enough" for their relevant constituency it becomes really easy for a 20/20/20/20/20 type split to happen at 5 candidates. 6 way becomes 16.7/16.7/so on
Which is where Trump was a problem from the onset. He "had a following" prior to his political run,
he brought that following with him into the Republican Party which initially excited the leadership as it brought in "new blood," all well and good, in theory. But when you're in a 10+ way primary race that is first past the post where you appealed to... say 8% of existing Republican primary voters, and brought in enough new people to the party to make it so you have a solid 21% of the primary vote in that state... Even though potentially 92% of the original membership(or 79% of the new membership total) would vote against that candidate, he became
their candidate all the same--because of first past the post.
But because these people are new, energized, and highly involved in the local political process--something most "rank and file" members
don't generally do. This creates a new problem. Local party chapters suddenly find that 30, 40, sometimes 50% of the people showing up to party organizational meetings/events are beholden to
that guy, and very vocally so. Enough so that it potentially drives out anywhere from 5 to 15% of the previously active party members. Which means they now control the local(city/county) party offices, where they now begin to work their way into the statewide party positions, where you end up with things like the Wyoming GOP and some of the other nuttiness that has recently passed through the RNC.
(and also in this mix, there is the matter that the GOP also had its earlier round with the Tea Party less than a decade earlier, so while they may not fully "mesh" with Trump's goals or his devout followers(much like the governors of Virginia and Florida both try to avoid association with Trump), they also are more than happy to f--k the RNC and the National Party organization for the *censored* they pulled in 2012 and 2014. So you only really needed, say, 25% "pure trump" another 15% of "pure tea party" and another 15%-ish of local party officials who decided to hybridize between the two and the GOP of 2008 finds itself completely locked out of "their party" where the non-governmental levers of power are concerned.
But as Mitch McConnel, and every other National Level Republican is reliant on support from the RNC, which has been taken over by an unholy alliance of Trump and Tea Party types, it makes them very wary of going after Trump. Because going after Trump means the RNC is likely to come
after them.
Or, at least it was, up until this past week. The Tea Party Faction is hopefully going to return to their senses and distance from Trump and his acolytes, which should help the non-trump portions of the GOP/RNC reconsolidate power, but it's going to take a couple years to work through. Although as Virginia attested to last year, and Florida this year, among a handful of other races. It is clear the Republicans can win without Trump. It is even more clear that Trump is a boat anchor for the party, not an asset.
However, the RNC is filled with Trump activists and party bylaws are likely to allow many of them to stick around for at least the better part of another year just yet. So it is going to be a difficult to turn the party around between now and when the Presidential Campaign season kicks off again. And the last thing the Republicans need is another Primary campaign season where Trump can hope for his opponents to weaken each other sufficiently that his base can carry him through the primaries.
It will be "interesting" to see what horse trading happens on the national stage between Republicans. Realistically, if they're serious about not having Trump on their ballot in 2024, they need to make sure there are no more than 2 people challenging Trump with any meaningful support/backing. Which means the politicians will have to do something which is very hard for most of them to do, stand aside and let somebody else run.
