Cacas Maximus Has Reentered the Match

[Grant]

Here we go again. 

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/trump-2024-presidential-bid/index.html

I just wanted to stay up to watch Artemis I get cancelled again.  And they have to pull this BS. 

[Tom]

The tension between "how long can I delay having to declare so that campaign finance requirements don't need to be observed" and "how soon can I declare so that I can claim any lawsuits against me should be delayed for the duration of my campaign" must have been pretty delicate at times.

[msquared]

And if the Republicans lose the GA runoff you can be sure he will not take responsibility.

[Grant]

The writers just have to keep growing viewership on planet Analsac. Think of the pressure. 

I have to admit everything just got more interesting. 

Will DeSanctis run?  Will anybody else in the primary? 

[Fenring]

I'm not sure how the primary rules work: is it possible for a party to 'disavow' a candidate so that they cannot run under that party's banner? Trump had run several times over the years for publicity (presumably), and won as a Republican. I presume they made no bones about that originally since they didn't think he was a serious contender. And I also realize that at the present moment they might actually alienate many people who would vote R if they ousted Trump. But in theory could the party say "you are not permitted to be part of our group this time" and force him to run as an independent?

[msquared]

The announcement was so energy filled that Fox (Sean Hannity) cut away.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/trump-2024-announcement-boring-even-031906683.html

[Grant]

The funniest thing I’ve seen so far is the Q frowd being decidedly underwhelmed. 

1.  By deciding to “run again” he is effectively conceding the 2020 election. 

2.  No one is being arrested or promising to arrest somebody.  The traitors and pedos who stole the election.

3.  It doesn’t “feel like the storm”.

4.  General fatigue. Like sounds like people wanting to commit suicide.  I personally don’t understand. What were they hoping for? 

[yossarian22c]

The tension between "how long can I delay having to declare so that campaign finance requirements don't need to be observed" and "how soon can I declare so that I can claim any lawsuits against me should be delayed for the duration of my campaign" must have been pretty delicate at times.

I think he's hoping Garland won't indict him if he's a candidate. He timed it for right after the election because Garland signaled he wouldn't indict in the run up to the election. Otherwise he would keep raking in those campaign donations with no oversite.

[msquared]

And the GOP can no longer fund his other legal defenses like they have been doing. It must gall him to spend his own money on things like this.

[Grant]

LOL.  When you've lost The Federalist: 

https://thefederalist.com/2022/11/16/national-conservatism-is-a-dead-end/

The NatCs not gonna be happy.  But the more they hammer CMaximus, the more likely the primary becomes a free-for-all that it was in 2016, splitting the "establishment" vote, and giving Cacas the edge.  The only thing different is that the lords of normalcy won't treat L'Orange as a lightweight fluke comedy candidate anymore.  They'll come after the King directly or indirectly first instead of trying to bump off the rest of the normies. 

[rightleft22]

I'm not sure how the primary rules work: is it possible for a party to 'disavow' a candidate so that they cannot run under that party's banner? Trump had run several times over the years for publicity (presumably), and won as a Republican. I presume they made no bones about that originally since they didn't think he was a serious contender. And I also realize that at the present moment they might actually alienate many people who would vote R if they ousted Trump. But in theory could the party say "you are not permitted to be part of our group this time" and force him to run as an independent?

I don't understand why the GOP didn't do what they ought to have done after Jan 06. They didn't do it then so I'm not confident they will do it now.
I can't verify this but seems to be a fear that Trump will vindictively take the GOP down with him (vice taking it down from the goodness of his heart) if he is rejected.

I suspect the fear is that Trump as a independent would split the vote and work against the GOP. The GOP needed to make it so he could never run again and they failed. I point the finger at Mitch

[msquared]

More proof that he cares nothing about the Party.  Hell he has already done that, look at the 2022 mid terms. He cost the Republicans the Senate and a red wave in the House.

[msquared]

Even Ivanka did not attend. This is such on obvious ploy to not get indicted. He announced from a position of weakness. So sad.

[cherrypoptart]

From what I saw it was hard line positions on abortion that didn't even allow exceptions for rape and incest that cost Republicans the Senate. And of course we've been over Biden's lies to trick the indebted college graduates into voting for him which everyone seems to agree were enough to influence and actually decide the election. No matter how tough you want to be on abortion if you don't allow exceptions for rape and incest you are almost unelectable. And that's not actually a bad thing.

And that's even if you look at the 15 week cutoff which seems pretty reasonable and allows abortions for any reason or no reason at all. That's almost four months. They should probably even just add one more week so they can call it four months. But when you say no exceptions for rape and incest even if you allow abortions before 15 weeks you're still saying the "magic words" that lose millions of voters.

In a way, the Supreme Court decision on abortion diked Republicans' red wave. A Pyrrhic victory.  If it hadn't been for that it wouldn't have really mattered what their preferences on abortion were because they could never be put into law but afterwards like with a genie unleashed their wishes could be granted so became dangerous.

[msquared]

Cherry,

You keep telling yourself that it was the student loan forgiveness "lie" that turned the 2022 midterms.

The fact is Biden is trying to forgive those loans. Did he have a senior moment when talking about how it happened? Sure. It does not change the fact that his Admin is trying to do it and it is being held up by a Trump judge.

Did Trump lie when he said Mexico was going to pay for the wall? Did he ever try to get Mexico to pay for the wall? Was Mexico ever really going to pay for the wall? Of course not.

The fact the the Republicans have opposed debt forgiveness out of a sense of misplaced envy that someone got something they "did not earn" or that their deep pocket bank backers opposed it does not change the fact the Biden is trying to get it done.

[cherrypoptart]

As for Trump, I'm leaning heavily toward it being better if he stepped aside and got behind DeSantis, our first Hispanic President and a veteran. The media gave Trump free and largely positive press the first time he ran because they thought he didn't have a chance but they've learned from their mistake and won't make it again. They are willing to sacrifice what journalistic integrity they didn't already sacrifice a long time ago and tell lie after lie after lie about Trump over and over and over again and won't be called on it. Trump's task now is Sisyphean. No matter how many media lies are refuted they just pile on an avalanche more.

If Trump wants to stay in for a while it could make DeSantis even stronger. It's riskier though than just getting behind DeSantis right now, maybe in exchange for a nice position like Secretary of State.

[Wayward Son]

If Trump wants to stay in for a while it could make DeSantis even stronger. It's riskier though than just getting behind DeSantis right now, maybe in exchange for a nice position like Secretary of State.

Trump settling for a second-banana position??  Where have you been for the last six years? 

[msquared]

Just the truths.

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016.
Trump lost the House in 2018.
Trump lost the popular and electoral vote in 2020.
Trump lost the Senate in 2020
Trump lost the Senate in 2022

[cherrypoptart]

Well at least this time I didn't call it "massive voter fraud". I think I should get a cookie or something for that.

Personally, I believe it was an intentional lie and Biden knows and always knew that it cannot possibly pass muster in the courts. It's clearly illegal. The law allows for the loans to be deferred for emergencies like Covid but not wiped out completely which requires an act of Congress. Biden's lie even admits the truth of that when he talks about the vote that passed. He knows it requires a vote and not just a wave of his pen. Biden is lying just like Obama was lying when he said against Hillary that his healthcare plan wouldn't require an individual mandate.

Biden is a consummate liar. Big rig operator, but just for a summer. Uncle worked in a coal mine, literally cut the federal debt in half by $1.4 trillion, marched in the civil rights movement, and on and on. We don't need to go through the litany of Biden's lies again. We'd be here all day.

[Grant]

 our first Hispanic President and a veteran.

Jeezus, Cherry.  He's Italian. 

As for his vetran status, he was JAG.  I guess that's ok.  David French was JAG too.  Just don't count it as operational experience.  A 71F has probably done more pushups and battle drills than DeSanctis. 

It's riskier though than just getting behind DeSantis right now, maybe in exchange for a nice position like Secretary of State.

Cherry, are you TRYING to kill me?  I choked so hard on a pignablanket I had to throw myself unto the back of a chair to get it out.  I've named the little chewed up piece of wiener "Secretary Trump" and am saving it. 

What makes you think that a blowhard narcissist would accept a lower job than one he has already served as?  Or that a person only liked by Pooter, Poohbear, and Kim would be someone you want talking to allies?  OMG.  I'm going blind.  I've finally seen something so crazy I'm losing my sight.     

[cherrypoptart]

And speaking of the popular vote, it looks like the Republicans won it in the mid-terms. Let's see how much weight the left gives to that now.

[cherrypoptart]

Italian? That's funny. Don't tell the Hispanics that. Yeah I probably should have looked that up.

[msquared]

What do you mean?  I was talking about popular vote for President in 2016 and 2020. There is no popular vote in mid terms.

You sure are stretching to make things look rosy for Republicans and Trump.

DeSantis would never have Trump in his Admin. Trump does not follow orders and shows no loyalty to anyone but himself. He would be a danger to any Admin, even his own as he has shown.

[cherrypoptart]

As for Trump, admittedly there's a strong possibility he tries to pull a Bull Moose and costs Republicans big time. As one of his biggest supporters, knowing what I know about how I'd have to let him go if he did that, I'd expect the vast majority of the others to do that as well. Despite the portrayals of Trump supporters as cultists, we're practicalists. In 2016 the other candidates just weren't cutting it. It 2024 factoring the totality of the situation with the media and the lies about Trump that have embedded themselves in the zeitgeist, I'm not seeing how he has a chance of actually winning especially if the left gets their way and Republican infighting tears our party apart.

Now if the party stays unified behind him that might be a different story. But that doesn't seem to be likely.

[cherrypoptart]

Correct me if I'm wrong but more voters voted for Republicans in the mid-terms than voted for Democrats.

What is the term for that that fits better than the popular vote?

[msquared]

Cherry

I think 25% of the party, at least, follows Trump if he goes 3rd party. He will not since that would mean he would have to spend his own money and we all know he hates to spend his own money. He would also have to know that he would lose and the Republicans would lose. Of course we all know he does not care about the Republican Party and it is not beyond his sense of revenge to, as I said in another thread, burn it all down just to get back at those he considers disloyal, which is every Republican who does not support him.

I wonder what dirt he has on DeSantis in those files he took.

[msquared]

Not sure where you got those numbers. It could be. I would like to see them.

I mean when you realize that LA and NY have more people then several states, and they went heavily Dem, I find it hard to believe, but possible I guess.

What races are you counting? Just House/Senate? Or are you throwing in state and local level elections?

[cherrypoptart]

It's just something I hear in passing on Fox and from Hannity, if I'm remembering correctly. And it was mentioned that Republicans need to get their act to together on gerrymandering because it's incompetent to by able to gerrymander, win more votes, and still only make such modest gains in the House and no gains at all in the Senate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/14/republican-popular-vote-seats/

"Analysis | Why the GOP's popular-vote edge hasn't translated to more House seats"

Paywalled but who reads articles anymore anyway?

[msquared]

Well gerrymandering only affects the House, not the Senate. And they did make good use of it in FL and TX

[Grant]

Not sure where you got those numbers. It could be. I would like to see them.

Cherry is right.  I saw the numbers a few days ago somewhere. Can find again on WaPost.  More votes for Republicans than Democrats. 

But it is meaningless.  The key voter demographic does not vote for parties.  They vote for candidates.  Some even might vote split ticket just for the sake of split ticket.  The "popular vote" over different races doesn't mean anything.  A "generic ballot" poll might have more meaning.  And it still doesn't have a lot for an actual election.  You can look at the numbers.  All you can extrapolate from this is just how much better or worse a candidate, or their opponent is, from the "generic".  And there is NO GENERIC CANDIDATE.  There never will be.

[yossarian22c]

It's just something I hear in passing on Fox and from Hannity, if I'm remembering correctly. And it was mentioned that Republicans need to get their act to together on gerrymandering because it's incompetent to by able to gerrymander, win more votes, and still only make such modest gains in the House and no gains at all in the Senate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/14/republican-popular-vote-seats/

"Analysis | Why the GOP's popular-vote edge hasn't translated to more House seats"

Paywalled but who reads articles anymore anyway?

Some quotes from that article:

In the 2022 election, there were many more uncontested House districts held by Republicans (14) than by Democrats (3). And there were another 10 districts in which the GOP had no major-party opponents, compared with just three for Democrats.

Thanks to California’s top-two primary system, there are also another six districts in which Democrats have the votes all to themselves, because the two finalists are both Democrats.

So effectively, there are more than 20 districts in which the GOP could run up the score, compared with a dozen for Democrats. They would be able to run up the score less in races with third-party candidates also on the ballot, but it still skews the numbers in the GOP’s favor, to some degree. (A note: Two uncontested districts held by the GOP are in states that don’t tally votes in uncontested races, which somewhat diminishes the GOP’s advantage on this metric.)

[msquared]

And so you pass on info you heard on Fox and Hannity, two completely neutral sources.

I have heard in many states that many Republicans voted for non Trump candidates in other races but not for Trump supporters in their race. They switched parties.  Like in AZ they would vote for Republicans who were not Trump supporters in local races, but not vote for Lake for Gov. or Blake Masters for Senate.

[TheDrake]

As for Trump, I'm leaning heavily toward it being better if he stepped aside and got behind DeSantis, our first Hispanic President and a veteran. The media gave Trump free and largely positive press the first time he ran because they thought he didn't have a chance but they've learned from their mistake and won't make it again. They are willing to sacrifice what journalistic integrity they didn't already sacrifice a long time ago and tell lie after lie after lie about Trump over and over and over again and won't be called on it. Trump's task now is Sisyphean. No matter how many media lies are refuted they just pile on an avalanche more.

If Trump wants to stay in for a while it could make DeSantis even stronger. It's riskier though than just getting behind DeSantis right now, maybe in exchange for a nice position like Secretary of State.

The guy who would sign an executive order banning mask mandates in a future pandemic? That's your guy? Someone who would weapon's DOE funding to make sure kids maximize viral spread?

[cherrypoptart]

I don't agree with him on his Covid approach. I hated the way he told kids to take off their masks. Even if it's true that they wouldn't get seriously ill it still doesn't take into account them bringing it back to grandma and killing her. But that has to be balanced by the fact that the Democrats are even worse as open borders are just as bad for spreading a pandemic as anything else and maybe worse. Now Title 42 is illegal so that just adds fuel to the fire. And in the end Democrats proved they are just as bad as the worst Republicans. At least Biden proved it. We had pretty much a lock on it and then Biden basically gave the green light for masklessness. Even now Biden jumps the gun in declaring that the pandemic is over. It might be winding down but then again just like before it might be winding up for another sucker punch.

But in the end Democrats have proved themselves no better than Republicans. There was also that whole thing of the black lives riots during a lockdown that Democrats encouraged. That wasn't in accordance with any of the scientifically accepted pandemic mitigation protocols I've seen.

[yossarian22c]

... But that has to be balanced by the fact that the Democrats are even worse as open borders just as bad for spreading a pandemic as anything else. Now Title 42 is illegal so that just makes it even worse. And in the end Democrats proved they are just as bad. ...

Most Democrats aren't for open boarders. And every major COVID outbreak came through airports not people hiking across the Arizona desert. Just keep telling yourself Democrats are "just as bad", despite all the evidence to the contrary.

[cherrypoptart]

We'll have to agree to disagree. I consider sanctuary cities to be open borders. No difference at all. If most Democrats are for sanctuary cities then they are for open borders. I suppose it all comes down to how we define our terms. It also makes no sense to do Covid checks on people coming through the airports and then what we should have done which is quarantines while you let millions of people walk right across the border with no checks on them at all. We were never serious about Covid. Not really.

Now Japan was serious. Controlled their border. Still using masks. Much lower death rate. And now hopefully since they let the U.S. let the virus run its natural course and become more contagious but less deadly plus we have vaccines for those who want them and better treatments, they are in a much better position to start coming out of their shell.

[Crunch]

LET'S GOOOOOOOOOO! Yes!

I love, love, love, that Trump is back in the race. This is awesome. Hopefully, he picks someone like Kari Lake as his running mate. To be sure, I'd rather see DeSantis or someone like him but if Trump wins the primary then it's a Trump victory. The economy is going into freefall - layoffs abound, inflation is rampant, and it's only going to get worse and Biden craps his pants (literally) through the next 2 years. 2 more years of losing jobs, going hungry, and watching your 401k disappear is going to be a key factor.

Another key factor, learning the lessons of the 2020 and 2022 elections. Votes are irrelevant now. What's important is ballots. As a result of the 2022 elections, there will be 22 Republican trifectas - states where they hold all branches vs 17 for democrats. Ballots should be mailed out to every eligible voter in Republican-controlled states and, if possible, all the rest. The ideal plan would be to mail them out to every single eligible voter on Aug 1. Then do another mass mailing on Sep 1. On Oct 1, republican ground game operatives should blow across the nation with more ballots in hand, going door to door to make sure people vote and, if they haven't, help them fill out their ballot right then.

Of course, these ground game operatives should be collecting the ballots to take them to unmonitored and unsecured drop-off locations. I would prefer to see those and everywhere possible, thousands of them. Dump ballots into them by the bagful. You know, really engage the electorate and insure every vote counts, right?

Hopefully republicans have learned the lesson ... I think they have.

[msquared]

People were so bored with his speech they tried to leave but security would not let them.

[rightleft22]

I love, love, love, that Trump is back in the race. This is awesome. Hopefully, he picks someone like Kari Lake
Curious what about Kari lake, besides being attractive, makes her suited for political leadership? What are your criteria?

What is Trump's economic plan besides promises of tax cuts and deregulation which IMO doesn't tend to make things better for the common person.
What is the GOP platform in general nowadays?? (other then what it seems to be Me, Me, Me,)

[TheDrake]

People were so bored with his speech they tried to leave but security would not let them.

You mean he didn't crash a wedding to make his announcement?

[Grant]

I love, love, love, that Trump is back in the race. This is awesome. Hopefully, he picks someone like Kari Lake as his running mate.

Roll Tide

[msquared]

I think Trump is going to find it much harder to get the nomination if Pence decides to run. Trump brought Pence on for the Evangelical vote and the Evangelicals went to Trump due to Pence.  If Pence is not there, they turn on him since Trump is not really a Christian (anymore then he is a real Republican).

https://www.yahoo.com/news/key-evangelical-figures-turn-trump-092100813.html

[cherrypoptart]

If Pence wins the nomination the Republicans are toast, toasted like marshmallows leaping from the highest branch of the nearest tree straight into a campfire.

I could see Democrats in collusion with their media lapdogs pushing Pence though, believing, correctly this time, that he is a seriously weak candidate and easily beaten. They'll turn on the charm just like they did with John "the maverick" McCain until he gets the nomination and then turn right around and start beating him mercilessly with the media's collective ugly stick.

Edited in... Republicans just got crushed on abortion. Pence would probably be the worst possible candidate. The media would push his opposition to the January 6th voting system integrity protest and his recent comments against Trump, but that doesn't get him any Republican or Democrat support. There isn't one thing anyone can even name that Pence ever did that was notable or exceptional. Evangelicals surely love him, but there aren't enough of them left to carry an election, and plus pretty much any Republican has them on lock so exactly the same way the Democrats take black people for granted, Republicans can ignore the evangelicals. Trump proved that. If the evangelicals voted for him, they'll vote for anyone who has an (R) next to their name. Pence may be a nice enough guy but he's another empty suit.

[msquared]

i never said Pence could win, just that if he ran against Trump, one of the larger blocks of previous Trump supporters would abandon him for someone who is much closer to their beliefs. 

I don't think Republicans have a chance in 2024.  Trump will not do the honorable thing for the good of the party and leave the race.  He is toxic for the Republicans but Trump does not care about the Party.  He cares only about himself, his ego and his grift.  He is also interested in staying out of jail and he thinks running will protect him.

[cherrypoptart]

The politics of it all with be interesting and downright Machiavellian.

Just like Democrats meddling in Republican primaries to pick losers.

And it's one thing for Democrats to meddle to pick someone they'd rather have in office just in case their person loses. A backup plan.

But it's something else to pick the guy or gal they actually hate the most because they figure, quite often correctly, that person will lose whereas the more moderate Republican they'd actually prefer if you gave them an ultimatum would be more likely to win.

Nothing illegal here. But noteworthy.

https://www.axios.com/2022/09/18/democratic-meddling-results-republican-primaries

[yossarian22c]

We'll have to agree to disagree. I consider sanctuary cities to be open borders. No difference at all.
...

Your getting adept at moving the goal posts on extreme terms. Lies to voters is "massive voter fraud," every local cop not arresting illegal immigrants reporting a crime is "open borders."

[wmLambert]

As for Trump, I'm leaning heavily toward it being better if he stepped aside and got behind DeSantis, our first Hispanic President and a veteran. The media gave Trump free and largely positive press the first time he ran because they thought he didn't have a chance but they've learned from their mistake and won't make it again. They are willing to sacrifice what journalistic integrity they didn't already sacrifice a long time ago and tell lie after lie after lie about Trump over and over and over again and won't be called on it. Trump's task now is Sisyphean. No matter how many media lies are refuted they just pile on an avalanche more.

If Trump wants to stay in for a while it could make DeSantis even stronger. It's riskier though than just getting behind DeSantis right now, maybe in exchange for a nice position like Secretary of State.

Just the truths.

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016.
Trump lost the House in 2018.
Trump lost the popular and electoral vote in 2020.
Trump lost the Senate in 2020
Trump lost the Senate in 2022

It is enlightening how wrong the criticisms of Trump's announcement speech was. To those who actually watched it (only on Newsmax) and not just edited snippets and pejorative quips about it, the consensus of opinion was that it was a very good speech - with many differences from his normal rally speeches. He stated his reasons for running, enumerated his many successes in office, and projected his future goals. Unlike Clinton, Obama, and Biden, he did accomplish his many campaign promises. The one that naysayers like msquared always bring up is Mexico paying for the wall, was well covered in his speech. He pointed out the resistance to it from Democrats, but how he managed to overcome them and get past their blockages to eventually build almost all the wall with Mexico's help and border support from their military. Also, the points msquared trotted out are cute - but don't explain how Obama received 69,000,000 votes - 873 counties - 18/19 bellwethers - Won Florida, Ohio, & Iowa - won House seats; and Trump received 74,000,000 votes - 2,497 counties - 18/19 bellwethers - Won Florida, Ohio, & Iowa - won House seats; and how Biden somehow received 81,000,000 votes - yet only won 477 counties - and 1/19 bellwethers -; and also lost Florida, Ohio, & Iowa - and lost House seats. Quite the head scratcher, neh?

Like I posted, the Trump announcement was well delivered and insightful. Sen. Lindsey Graham wrote. " His speech tonight, contrasting his policies and results against the Biden Administration, charts a winning path for him in the primaries and general election." The gist of it: "I am running because I believe the world has not yet seen the true glory of what this nation can be. We have not reached that pinnacle, believe it or not," he continued, blaming President Biden for the current state of the nation. "In fact, we can go very far. We're going to have to go far first. We have to get out of this ditch. And once we're out, you'll see things that nobody imagined for any country. It's called the United States of America. And it's an incredible place."

There is no fear of true justice - only recognizing the many traps and vicious attacks the Dems will throw in his path out of fear of him being the one nominee who could successfully drain the swamp. As Michael Gorka pointed out, he said he would try to enforce term limits across the board, and have a lifetime ban on ex-politicians becoming lobbyists.

[msquared]

The election numbers may be head scratching for you but it still does not change the election facts I have listed.

[cherrypoptart]

The biggest problem that Trump has which will only get worse is that the media will no longer let people hear him speak for himself. They will filter everything he says when they cover it at all. I even heard so called "journalists" on NPR rationalizing their censorship and refusal to allow Trump's words to be broadcast unfiltered because of January 6th. His latest speech is a prime example. Nobody who listens to the mainstream media is going to hear anything he said. All they're ever going to know about it is that "apparently" it was so bad that people who got bored and tried to leave were locked in by security, a captive audience taken hostage by Trump in much the same way America was for four years. I'm still in Trump's corner. I agree that when you look at the border under Trump compared to the disaster it is under Biden it's day and night. More people died of Covid under Biden too even though he had vaccines, abundant quality masks, and treatments. You can just go down the list of Biden's man made disasters. Afghanistan. Energy. Inflation. Crime. But the media will no longer even bother to cloak itself with feigned journalistic integrity. They've got too much power and there are too many dupes out there who still believe their constant stream of anti-Trump lies. The more I look at it, the more impossible Trump's task seems.

[NobleHunter]

Like, when even Fox news cuts off your speech, how can a demagogue get anywhere?