Author Topic: The double splinter  (Read 2277 times)

Fenring

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The double splinter
« on: April 29, 2016, 12:32:04 PM »
Normally the argument against running a third candidate in a general election is that it will splinter the vote for one of the main candidates and hand the election to the other one. This phenomenon has caused past elections to be derailed in exactly this way, and is why a third candidate is something for both parties to fear.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/donald-trump-advises-bernie-sanders-run-independent/story?id=38680366

Let's just suppose that in a strange turn of events both Trump and Sanders decide to run as independents, despite earlier claims that they would not. In terms of honoring their statements I think it's fair to say that the parties themselves have scuttled any accord that could be said to have existed with those candidates since they have been thrown to the sharks at every opportunity. Normally doing so would serve little purpose other than to help the other party, but if they both do it - what happens then? We'd have a four-way general election where only two of the candidates are from the parties, and where all four have significant support. How would Hillary fare, for example, absent her superdelegates and the fake momentum the media assigned to her all along because of them? How would Cruz fare once Trump was free to denounce him, no longer running as a Republican? And let's not even get started on how Trump would rip into Hillary in that scenario.

I bet the outcome of such a four-way race would be quite hard to predict, and the proceedings would be educational at the very least. I think it would be good for Democracy as well. Sadly a three-way general is just not feasible, which is a mechanical reality that in my opinion impinges on the good functioning of the Republic. Maybe it's lucky when four plausible candidates come along at the same time so that this can be overcome.

D.W.

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Re: The double splinter
« Reply #1 on: April 29, 2016, 01:04:15 PM »
I think Sanders is pragmatic enough to back Hillary for a slam dunk win rather than roll the dice.  Were he that bold, Ya, I expect he'd be able to win, but it would be a nail biter.

The truly impressive thing this season is that not one, but both parties has managed to make so many people mistrust them and believe the system is rigged to ignore the will of the people.  (Or, if you prefer, to fumble such that so many all wake up to reality at the same time.)  Yay internet?

TheDeamon

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Re: The double splinter
« Reply #2 on: April 29, 2016, 06:54:36 PM »
It would then devolve into an electoral college decision, which would likely be indecisive on the first vote, which then gives the selection process over to Congress. At which point who gets the Presidency is anybody's ball game.