Author Topic: michael Moore predicts Trump victory  (Read 4615 times)

yossarian22c

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #50 on: July 27, 2016, 01:57:39 PM »
Actually Wayword, Trump is fairly centrist on social issues.  He is far right on building a wall, and to the populist right on economic statements.  My concerns about Trump are largely around his admiration of authoritarianism and statements that show that is how he plans to govern.  It is hard to know exactly what policies Trump would pursue b/c the solution to every problem is Trump, "it will be great", or "I'll fix it" seem to be about as detailed as his policy proposals get.  The things he has been specific on are either frightening or absurd.  In the frightening category when told bombing terrorists families was illegal and Generals would not obey those orders he replied they would if I gave them.  In the absurd category we have building a wall on the Mexico boarder and forcing Mexico to pay for it.  You don't get to charge your neighbors for your construction projects, works the same for nations.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #51 on: July 27, 2016, 02:16:27 PM »
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Al and WS, I think Seriati's point is that if Trump actually is lying about being a conservative to troll the GOP and get elected then the liberals can in some sense rest easy that they won't be getting a real conservative if he's elected.
You're making a Yuge assumption that you can believe anything he says about anything.  He flips his positions all the time and never even admits he's doing it.

And to what Yossarian22c said, Word!

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #52 on: August 09, 2016, 03:03:47 AM »
I hope Moore's depressing prediction is receding in the rear view mirror to the point of disappearing.  Besides the 50 Republican foreign policy experts who publicly denounced Trump in a letter yesterday, Rick Wilson of the NY Daily News has written a biting and powerful call to "beat [Trump] like a drum" for there to be any hope of saving the Republican Party:
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I want to be clear here. As a principled conservative, I loathe the high likelihood that Hillary Clinton will — barring a bear attack or some other unforeseen externality — win this election.

She'll nominate liberal Supreme Court justices. We'll lose religious liberty. We'll have our Second Amendment freedoms compromised. Chuck Schumer's immigration bill is going to be so bad it will make many of us beg for the Gang of Eight.

However, Trump would be far worse. He'd be more dangerous to our safety and our republic. And since I know his loss is coming, I pray to God that it is total. You should, too.
  He's even gone beyond that and become the campaign chairman for a new (and unlikely) conservative, Evan McMullin, who is trying to join the race for the sole purpose of taking votes away from Trump.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #53 on: August 10, 2016, 05:21:52 PM »
After Trump's 2A comment yesterday, I bet that Clinton could shoot him on 5th Avenue and still get elected.

JoshCrow

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #54 on: August 10, 2016, 06:07:28 PM »
Fivethirtyeight now puts Trump at under 15% odds if the election were held today. Moore looks a bit more like Chicken Little lately.

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #55 on: August 10, 2016, 06:19:16 PM »

"After Trump's 2A comment yesterday, I bet that Clinton could shoot him on 5th Avenue and still get elected."


You mean like that DNC emails leaker?

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #56 on: August 10, 2016, 11:30:09 PM »

"After Trump's 2A comment yesterday, I bet that Clinton could shoot him on 5th Avenue and still get elected."

You mean like that DNC emails leaker?
You mean you believe that trash talk?  Trump has put so many nails in his own coffin lately that he hardly needs more, but I do hope he starts repeating that accusation.  I think he has a chance to get about 40% of the vote as things stand today, but comments like that could drive it even lower.  Do you agree with Giuliani that security experts who actually know something about security can't be trusted because they are security experts.  We need some fresh faces to figure that stuff out, like maybe some high school seniors who are looking for internships.

TheDeamon

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #57 on: August 11, 2016, 12:45:44 AM »
Do you agree with Giuliani that security experts who actually know something about security can't be trusted because they are security experts.  We need some fresh faces to figure that stuff out, like maybe some high school seniors who are looking for internships.

Can't speak for the former mayor, but I'd take that to mean looking at the field agents and techs for new leadership rather than going for yet another person who worked their way through the political process of the bureaucracy.

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #58 on: August 11, 2016, 02:21:58 AM »
yossarian22c

"Actually Wayword, Trump is fairly centrist on social issues.  He is far right on building a wall..."

I just heard something recently that made me wonder about that.

"The US and Mexico share a common border of about 2,000-miles (3,200-km). As of February 10, 2012, the Department of Homeland Security had completed 651 miles of fencing out of nearly 652 miles mandated by Congress, including 299 miles of vehicle barriers and 352 miles of pedestrian fence."

I'm not sure what the current numbers are on how much we've put up already but the point is we've already built over 600 miles of barrier before Trump said a word on the subject and I don't know how much has been built under Obama but I imagine at least some of it. So how is it crazy or far right to finish what we've already started and Obama has been continuing?

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #59 on: August 11, 2016, 09:16:10 AM »
Do you agree with Giuliani that security experts who actually know something about security can't be trusted because they are security experts.  We need some fresh faces to figure that stuff out, like maybe some high school seniors who are looking for internships.

Can't speak for the former mayor, but I'd take that to mean looking at the field agents and techs for new leadership rather than going for yet another person who worked their way through the political process of the bureaucracy.
There's no question that there are competent and talented people in the ranks who would want to rise and would do well.  But if you look at the list of the 50 security experts who denounced Trump, the vast majority were career professionals rather than political appointees with no background, all of whom served under or advised Republican administrations.  As to Trump's pushback against them:
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Trump was equally as harsh, calling the 50 part of the "failed Washington elite" — insiders who, along with Hillary Clinton, made "disastrous decisions to invade Iraq, allow Americans to die in Benghazi and ... allowed the rise of ISIS [Islamic State]."
He's got a point.  Every Republican international and intelligence military and policy disaster of the past 30 years involved different people from the list, even if they didn't make the policy.  Some of the real architects have not (yet) denounced Trump, so perhaps we'll hear from them one way or the other in the coming months.

If you're suggesting that Trump will do better, he's already said that he gets his advice from his own Big Brain, so he doesn't really need their help anyway.

Wayward Son

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #60 on: August 11, 2016, 11:06:19 AM »
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I'm not sure what the current numbers are on how much we've put up already but the point is we've already built over 600 miles of barrier before Trump said a word on the subject and I don't know how much has been built under Obama but I imagine at least some of it. So how is it crazy or far right to finish what we've already started and Obama has been continuing?

The interesting thing I've seen from many Trump supporters is that they seem to hear what they want from the candidate, rather than what he actually says.

To be fair, I've been the same thing from many Obama supporters, who have been continually surprised by Obama doing what he actually said he would do, rather than what they expected him to do. :)

But the same thing is happening here.  Cherry, are you equating the current fencing along the boarder to "the wall" that Trump has promised to build (at Mexico's expense)?  Have you looked at what Trump is proposing to build?

According to Politifact:

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Trump has said the wall could cost $8 billion to $12 billion, be made of precast concrete, and rise 35 to 40 feet, or 50 feet, or higher. He’s said the wall doesn’t need to run the nearly 2,000 miles of the border, but half of that because of natural barriers.

35 to 50 feet of precast concrete.  Compare this to the fencing that is currently along the border.  Or this piece at Jacumba, CA (which is a vast improvement over the two-foot-high barbed-wire fence I saw there a couple of decades ago).  How much of it looks like a 35 - 50 foot concrete wall?

Trump does not just want to extend the fence.  He wants to build a great wall, a huge wall, made of concrete.  And get Mexico to pay for at least $8 billion of the bill.

It's a pipe-dream.  Never happen.  Even the most disinterested person knows that.  But Trump keeps repeating it.

Why?

D.W.

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #61 on: August 11, 2016, 11:45:56 AM »
We can totally offset the cost by leasing both sides of the wall for advertising!   ;D

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #62 on: August 11, 2016, 06:48:43 PM »
So it's not the purpose of the wall in keeping people out but just the optics of it being a wall instead of a fence or other barrier?

That doesn't make any sense to me from a perspective of logic or being rational but I suppose maybe it does make some sort of sense from an emotional perspective, perhaps. A barrier is a barrier and the point of it is exactly the same.

As for the cost, didn't Obama just blow through almost a trillion dollars on "shovel ready jobs" which never materialized, all of which got added to the national debt and will probably end up costing us at least as much on interest as we try to pay it off over the next thirty years? At least this will provide real shovel ready jobs and at a tiny fraction of the price, all of which can be paid simply by taxing remittances at a modest 5% over an eight year period.

I'm not seeing the big deal in the difference between the wall and a border fence though. So if Trump changed it to a border fence instead of a wall then it would be all good? Somehow I'm doubting it.

That was a good piece in Time showing the new double barrier of a fence and a wall built with pride under Obama. That's as intimidating as anything Trump is proposing, perhaps even more so with that DMZ looking area between the two that looks like it could be mined and covered by machine gun nests spaced to provide intersecting arcs of cover fire.

I just hope Trump's Wall is big enough that you can hike and ride bicycles along the top of it and if they put some sort of shading to cover it for the tourists that would be delightful.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #63 on: August 11, 2016, 09:02:25 PM »
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As for the cost, didn't Obama just blow through almost a trillion dollars on "shovel ready jobs" which never materialized, all of which got added to the national debt and will probably end up costing us at least as much on interest as we try to pay it off over the next thirty years? At least this will provide real shovel ready jobs and at a tiny fraction of the price, all of which can be paid simply by taxing remittances at a modest 5% over an eight year period.
I realize that facts aren't all that important to you, but the total portion of the $800B Stimulus allocated for "shovel ready" projects was $150B.  But like I said, facts don't really matter, just like the kind of wall Trump says he will build isn't anything like the kind of wall you imagine is there.  For me, facts *do* matter, which is why I'm so impressed with the way your mind works.

Pete at Home

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #64 on: August 11, 2016, 11:15:04 PM »
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To be fair, I've been the same thing from many Obama supporters, who have been continually surprised by Obama doing what he actually said he would do, rather than what they expected him to do.

You mean like stand against same-sex marriage, or close down Guantanamo?  Oops.

To give Bush Junior credit, he did actually say in his election speeches that he was going to restart the Iraq war.   ::)

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #65 on: August 11, 2016, 11:48:31 PM »
It doesn't matter what kind of wall or barrier or fence it is. The purpose is still the same. Why is it better to build a fence to keep impoverished and desperate people fleeing violence out but not a wall? That doesn't make any sense. If the fence is better because it's easier to get through then what was the point of building it in the first place? And how many regular people are really hanging out at the border anyway just minding their own business and now they'll see this huge wall and say, wow, that really is an eyesore? That's why it's so bad right, because it looks bad? I doubt that many people, in the grand scheme of things, will even notice it.

And I'll be glad to take your 150 billion dollar number and run with it. That means we can spend that much on the wall and still come out way ahead of what Obama wasted because at least now we'll have something awesome to show for it.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #66 on: August 12, 2016, 11:07:28 AM »
It doesn't matter what kind of wall or barrier or fence it is. The purpose is still the same. Why is it better to build a fence to keep impoverished and desperate people fleeing violence out but not a wall? That doesn't make any sense. If the fence is better because it's easier to get through then what was the point of building it in the first place? And how many regular people are really hanging out at the border anyway just minding their own business and now they'll see this huge wall and say, wow, that really is an eyesore? That's why it's so bad right, because it looks bad? I doubt that many people, in the grand scheme of things, will even notice it.

And I'll be glad to take your 150 billion dollar number and run with it. That means we can spend that much on the wall and still come out way ahead of what Obama wasted because at least now we'll have something awesome to show for it.
if I owe  you $10000 and promised to pay you today, but instead offer to give you $300 next week, is it the same?  Trump is spectacular on promises and nowhere to be seen when it's time to pay up.

Wayward Son

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #67 on: August 12, 2016, 03:54:38 PM »
So it's not the purpose of the wall in keeping people out but just the optics of it being a wall instead of a fence or other barrier?

That doesn't make any sense to me from a perspective of logic or being rational but I suppose maybe it does make some sort of sense from an emotional perspective, perhaps. A barrier is a barrier and the point of it is exactly the same...

Is your house safe from burglars, cherry?  Is there any way a burglar could get into your house?  Wouldn't your house be safer if you put in $5 million of improvements?  So why don't you?

For the two same reasons, I'd bet, as to why we shouldn't build a 50 foot wall.

1.  No matter how much security you add, someone who is motivated enough can always get past it.  Even if we have a 50 foot concrete wall along the entire length of the Mexican border, illegals would sneak along the coast, or tunnel under the wall, or climb over the wall, or fly over the wall, or just blow a hole in it.  Walls cannot stop everyone.  They can only discourage the less motivated and/or prepared.

Any wall can be breached; any safe can be cracked; any house can be broken into.  Higher security makes it harder, but can never make it impossible.

2.  Spending that much money on security simply isn't worth it.  The law of diminishing returns.  Our security wouldn't be enhanced that much with an $12 billion+ wall, as compared to a fence.  The few percent of those trying to cross that would be deterred by a 50 foot wall compared to a 25 foot fence is not worth the 100x or more cost of the wall.  It may look impressive, but it won't do much more than a fence would.  You would still need border agents to patrol the wall.  You would still need to maintain the wall. 

You can go broke trying to buy security.  You have to balance the cost against the threat.

And the bottom line is that the threat from terrorists and illegals is still relatively miniscule.  Take the number of murders in this country for any recent year.  Subtract the number of murders from illegals and terrorists who snuck across the border.  Now divide it by the original number.  What'd you get?  99 percent?  99.5 percent?  99.9 percent?

$8 billion won't buy diddly-squat.

So, I suppose you'll say, then why have any fences?  Why not just tear down all the fences and let anyone who wants to come in?

Which brings us back to your house analogy.  If you can't afford to spend $5 million dollar improving you house security, or don't think it's worth it, why don't you just disconnect the burglar alarm, take off the front door, open all the windows, and leave your house lights off all the time?  What does it matter--you can't stop anyone from breaking in, can you?

Because these measures do prevent most burglaries.  They prevent the casual burglar from just dropping by when he feels like it.  They make it harder for him to break in the first place, and increase the chances he'll be caught.

If Trump was serious about increasing border security, he'd propose things that would help--increasing border patrols, building more low-cost fencing, going after employers of illegals who provide the main incentive for people to illegally cross the border.  These things would help, at a cost/benefit ratio that would be rational.  These could work.

But a wall?  A pie-in-the-sky solution.  (Do you recall the link from a few months ago that estimated how much concrete this wall would require?  It was something like 40 percent of all the concrete we use for like ten years, IIRC.  Nuts.)

But Trump likes big ideas.  We should ask him for a unicorn to go with it. :)

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #68 on: August 12, 2016, 05:17:44 PM »
Well we won't know for sure how effective it is until we try. The reports I see are that the fences are very effective at significantly reducing illegal crossings where they are put up but of course that just redirects traffic to crossing points that are less secure. The solution is obviously just to secure the entire border. And Trump said the wall is going to be awesome and fantastic. To me one obvious thing to do is to run cable in it with high res cameras along the line that anyone anywhere in the world can access and look at anytime they want and submit a report if they see anything suspicious. As they say, if we can send a man to the moon... surely we can do this too, secure the border. It's not really that complicated, all it takes is the one thing we are lacking now in our leadership. Any will to do it.

Pete at Home

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #69 on: August 12, 2016, 05:21:31 PM »
Well we won't know for sure how effective it is until we try. The reports I see are that the fences are very effective at significantly reducing illegal crossings where they are put up but of course that just redirects traffic to crossing points that are less secure. The solution is obviously just to secure the entire border. And Trump said the wall is going to be awesome and fantastic. To me one obvious thing to do is to run cable in it with high res cameras along the line that anyone anywhere in the world can access and look at anytime they want and submit a report if they see anything suspicious. As they say, if we can send a man to the moon... surely we can do this too, secure the border. It's not really that complicated, all it takes is the one thing we are lacking now in our leadership. Any will to do it.

Maybe when he said 'get mexico to pay for it,' he meant use prison labor which is mostly mexican illegal alien.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #70 on: August 12, 2016, 08:47:38 PM »
Take this as you will, but I think that Trump is not killing the Republican Party, but starting the process to put it back on track where it was through the '80s.  The party has been taken over by radicals since Gingrich, and Trump is the natural culmination of the drive through the right wall and out of the mainstream altogether.  We thought that the Tea Party was nutso (they are), but Trump has exacerbated their bat*censored* extremism beyond even where they would go.  Now the Party has nowhere at all to go except back to the middle.  I expect that in 2020, after having lost all three governing leadership roles, they will nominate someone no more radical than George Bush I.  If they put Cruz up instead, it will take another cycle of the wheel before they get another shot, and then they will perhaps have learned their lesson.  Bottom line, Trump will poll 38% and lose 40 states.  The next Republican candidate will either do just as poorly be continuing his kind of diseased rhetoric, or a moderate Republican will make it a race like we used to have.

You heard it here first.

D.W.

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #71 on: August 12, 2016, 08:50:51 PM »
Yep, I tend to use the 'controlled burn' analogy when I bring up that theory with friends.

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #72 on: August 12, 2016, 08:55:26 PM »
This almost seems like something out of The Onion:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/king-debt-donald-trump-now-144004540.html?bcmt=1471024394155-e84c0179-e456-48c1-9115-6ae5438a6bfc_00007n000000000000000000000000-d4e19cf4-5adf-4dc7-a1de-8e1fa220e0d8&bcmt_s=u#mediacommentsugc_container

"The U.S. is nearly $20 trillion in debt, a number that has almost doubled under President Barack Obama. If Donald Trump is elected president, the nation's massive pile of IOUs will keep on growing and then some.

Already the self-proclaimed "king of debt" — a declaration the Republican nominee made on CNBC in May — Trump promised Thursday to use the low-interest environment as a means to rebuild the national infrastructure.

"This is a time to borrow and borrow long term," he told CNBC during a discussion on how he would finance the many projects he wants to undertake, such as rebuilding airports and bridges and upgrading the military...

... Trump sees the climate as a ripe time for the U.S. to take advantage of almost-free money. He wants to use it to rebuild American infrastructure, including airports that "are like third-world countries." (The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which runs New York metro-area facilities, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.)

"Normally you would say you want to reduce your debt, and I like to reduce debt as much as anybody," he said. "The problem is, you have a military problem, you have an infrastructure problem — a tremendous infrastructure problem — and you have other problems. The asset is your rates are so low."

... "What's going to happen when the rates eventually go up and you can't borrow, you absolutely can't borrow, because it's too expensive?" he said. "It would destroy our balance sheet, totally destroy the balance sheet."

Trump also hit back against an analysis from Moody's Analytics, which said his plans would cause a "lengthy recession," run up $11 trillion in debt and cost 3.5 million jobs.

In addition to taking advantage of the opportune interest rate climate, Trump's economic plan calls for slashing income and business taxes. Moody's economist Mark Zandi, who has supported Hillary Clinton for president, has said her plan would make the economy "stronger" than Trump's proposals.

"It's a ridiculous statement," Trump said. "My plan's going to lead to growth. We're going to have the jobs not her. ... I think they were looking at an old plan."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This seems like a complicated issue with a lot of variables in play that are difficult to factor and perhaps Trump's idea makes some sense especially from the perspective of a real estate developer who uses debt as leverage to make even more money.

But... I'm not a complicated person. My preference would be to not only completely pay off the national debt but then to actually have a national savings account that pays the U.S. taxpayer interest by way of lowering our taxes because some of the money we make off the national savings (and investment) account can be used to offset taxes. It's exactly the opposite of what we have now. Sounds crazy but look at Alaska. This is what they have. They have so much money in the Alaska state permanent dividend fund that they actually pay their taxpayers hundreds to thousands of dollars back every year. Texas also has our Rainy Day Fund. That's the way to run an economy. Spend less than you take in, pay off your debt, and then build up your emergency fund and eventually live on interest. The Mormon Church also does something like this. So I prefer the Dave Ramsey plan over the Trump one.

I will say one good thing about Trump is he's just coming right out and saying it.

Not like the others who promise to tackle it and then just jack it anyway.

At least Trump isn't lying.

And the funny thing is even if he is lying all the would mean is that he promised to raise the debt and then he broke that promise and paid it down instead. There are much worse promises to break and much worse ways to break them.

D.W.

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #73 on: August 12, 2016, 09:05:33 PM »
I'm confused.  Were you correct about Obama, or just saying you had your time table off a couple of years?  :)

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #74 on: August 12, 2016, 09:07:01 PM »
If Hillary wins, just the demographics of the amnesty for millions of illegals who will vote Democrat along with their children for most if not all of their lives along with the millions more in illegal and legal immigration with further amnesties down the road, probably every generation, will result in perpetual Democrat control of politics in America for the foreseeable future. I realize I pretty much said the same thing when Obama won his second term and if Hillary wins that will prove I was correct. If any Republican had won instead of Trump and went along with the amnesty like most of them supported it would result in the same thing. Cruz said he wouldn't support amnesty aka a path to citizenship but he lied about supporting the nominee so he may have lied about that too. That means that Trump was and is the last and only hope of saving the Republican party, just based on simple demographic trends.

I guess one good thing is if all this happens we will finally get to see whether the Democrat Party dreams and promises can come true, or if our country will descend into the 2nd and 3rth world hellholes they've made of many of the cities they control. I said the same thing about Obama, that results matter and we will see what the actual results are that come from voting for hope and change, and they are every bit the spectacular failure that I expected. Hillary is Obama's more sinister little mini-me so her results will most certainly be even worse. Maybe not though. Maybe it will be a nice surprise how great she makes America.

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #75 on: August 12, 2016, 09:12:30 PM »
Oops sorry I reposted that instead of editing but I think I was correct about Obama in every foreseeable circumstance except for Trump coming along.

I don't think there would have been much enthusiasm for the Republicans voting for any of the others knowing that the simple demographics of amnesty means they were digging their own graves as far as political power goes.

I also think Trump is right and that the election will be rigged with massive voter fraud and manipulation. I know that's hard to imagine after watching how on the up and up the Democrat primary was but we'll just have to see. Sadly, even if it does happen that the election is stolen there won't really be anything that can be done about it, just like there wasn't with Bernie and a little bit further back in history when Lyndon Johnson stole Texas.

D.W.

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #76 on: August 12, 2016, 09:21:04 PM »
Here's my prediction then if we're gonna go there.  Trump's minions will be the ones doing the rigging.  They'll do it in favor of Hillary.  I mean, they know he can't win.  They know he doesn't even WANT to win.  So they will attempt to use the inevitable loss to create a scandal to tarnish her entire time in office and lay the ground work for their party to keep up the good fight and better luck next time while they scrounge their rumps off looking for a real candidate who has a prayer.

Am I playing the game right?

Fenring

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #77 on: August 12, 2016, 09:46:54 PM »
Good psy-op scenario D.W. That is, indeed, how the game is played :)

cherry, if that is indeed Trump's economic plan (e.g. stimulus) it furthers the theory that he's a closet Democrat who spoiled the GOP convention. Not that one has to be a Democrat to be in that economic school, but, well, they tend to be.

TheDeamon

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #78 on: August 12, 2016, 11:12:46 PM »
Here's my prediction then if we're gonna go there.  Trump's minions will be the ones doing the rigging.  They'll do it in favor of Hillary.  I mean, they know he can't win.  They know he doesn't even WANT to win.  So they will attempt to use the inevitable loss to create a scandal to tarnish her entire time in office and lay the ground work for their party to keep up the good fight and better luck next time while they scrounge their rumps off looking for a real candidate who has a prayer.

Am I playing the game right?

You forget the part where those diabolical Republican Operatives are carrying out all of this fradulent voting in support of a Democratic Candidate in districts that are predominately controlled by the Democratic Party. That takes some political balls of steel.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #79 on: August 13, 2016, 06:28:46 PM »
I read an article today that said that one reason Clinton is drawing more potential Republican voters than Trump is drawing Democrats is because her positions are a lot closer to traditional Republican voters than his are. In other words, she's the Republican alternative, and they should stop angsting over how to stop him.

Also, I watched a CNN interview with my favorite Trump spokesbraindead, Katrina (good name for her) Pierson. She complained that we had the Iraq war won in 2007 after the surge, but Obama and Clinton blew not only that but followed up disastrously by invading Afghanistan afterwards in 2007.  I'd ask where does he find these people, but the answer is that she was a losing contestant on The Apprentice, so now we know where at least one of the losers went.

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #80 on: August 13, 2016, 11:13:33 PM »
I agree with that because she is the establishment candidate and there is a lot of overlap between the Democrat and Republican establishments. I always figured that there were a few wedge issues that they both like to highlight to make it look like there is a big difference between them while behind the scenes most of them don't care about these issues much if at all and they just work together to keep the money flowing to the big corporations so they can get the kick backs into their own war chests in the form of campaign contributions and other favors.  Bernie was a huge threat to this scheme and Trump still is.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #81 on: August 20, 2016, 07:03:01 AM »
My thinking about Trump's campaign has shifted again.  Pete (I think it was Pete) was the first here to suggest that Trump wasn't really running to be President, but to satisfy some other goal.  I've read several articles in the last week suggesting that, and they make a certain kind of sense.  Rather running a campaign in which he will lose, he may be trying to lose by design.  It's becoming increasingly harder to believe that anything he says or does has as its purpose to increase the chances of his winning.

Why would he do that?  Just to bolster his ravenous need for attention isn't good enough, because after the election all that attention goes away.  He *wants* something out of all this that will survive and grow and I think he's going to get it.  What the country gets is not all that interesting to him.

jasonr

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #82 on: August 20, 2016, 09:08:12 AM »
Quote
My thinking about Trump's campaign has shifted again.  Pete (I think it was Pete) was the first here to suggest that Trump wasn't really running to be President, but to satisfy some other goal.  I've read several articles in the last week suggesting that, and they make a certain kind of sense.  Rather running a campaign in which he will lose, he may be trying to lose by design.  It's becoming increasingly harder to believe that anything he says or does has as its purpose to increase the chances of his winning.

Why would he do that?  Just to bolster his ravenous need for attention isn't good enough, because after the election all that attention goes away.  He *wants* something out of all this that will survive and grow and I think he's going to get it.  What the country gets is not all that interesting to him.

You're falling into the same trap that the Republican establishment probably did - the one that prevented them from seeing the danger until it was too late. You're assuming that Trump is lying about pretty much everything he says - which is a correct assumption. But where you stumble (and where they did) is in inferring that his lies have a rational purpose beyond feeding his own ego. They kept saying he was going to moderate, that he'd move centre, or back off from some of his nuttier proposals, that he'd stop attacking babies and war veterans. But Trump just kept on being Trump.

Trump is a compulsive liar. Note, there is a distinction between a compulsive liar and a serial liar (eg: Hillary Clinton).

My personal view is that Trump probably started his campaign with some goal of getting publicity for himself, as men like him often do. At some point, he started winning, and then he kept on winning, probably even to his own surprise. At a certain point though, it became serious and he started to believe he really could win. Really scary to imagine even the possibility that someone like him could go all the way.

TheDeamon

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #83 on: August 20, 2016, 12:51:12 PM »
My thinking about Trump's campaign has shifted again.  Pete (I think it was Pete) was the first here to suggest that Trump wasn't really running to be President, but to satisfy some other goal.

I think I was the first one to fully outline it on Ornery, although I know there are older accusations that Trump was ringer from the start, most people who held to that view shut-up at some point during the later portion of the primaries and the run-up to the RNC. Some probably even managed to convince themselves otherwise for awhile.

Quote
I've read several articles in the last week suggesting that, and they make a certain kind of sense.  Rather running a campaign in which he will lose, he may be trying to lose by design.  It's becoming increasingly harder to believe that anything he says or does has as its purpose to increase the chances of his winning.

And paradoxically, if more people buy into it, it also becomes possible that his odds of winning will increase. The more convinced people become that Trump doesn't want the job, the more likely it becomes that people will vote for him as a protest vote, much like what went on in Brewster's Millions for the fictional NYC Mayor race.

Quote
Why would he do that?  Just to bolster his ravenous need for attention isn't good enough, because after the election all that attention goes away.  He *wants* something out of all this that will survive and grow and I think he's going to get it.  What the country gets is not all that interesting to him.

The attention does go away, but the name recognition remains, which is why many publicists and PR types will occasionally say "There's no such thing as bad publicity." It's all about spin control.

The other thing you're ignoring is that if Trump loses in November, don't be surprised to see filming for another season of "The Apprentice" or some other (new) reality TV program with Trump as the lead, to start filming by January.

Which isn't to mention the possibility he has a documentary crew following him around currently. Romney did that in 2012, Trump may be taking it to "another level."
« Last Edit: August 20, 2016, 12:56:23 PM by TheDeamon »

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #84 on: August 20, 2016, 05:48:10 PM »
Maybe he'll commission a new book, The Art of the Demagogue.

Wayward Son

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #85 on: August 22, 2016, 11:22:28 AM »
The latest I heard was that he brought Stephen Bannon on board so that, if he lost the election, he would have a platform to be the voice of the Alt Right.  He could be a political commentator/blowhard for the rest of his life.

What possibly could be better for him? :)

rightleft22

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #86 on: August 22, 2016, 11:57:26 AM »
My feeling is that Trump persona/ego very much wants to WIN and that this persona has convinced Trump that he wants to be president but at some deeper level doesn’t really want to be.

I think Trump likes being the CEO of Trump and would quickly find the work of being president tedious.
If elected he would probably delegate everything and then get in the way. 

Every now and then you can catch dear in headlights look when it seems he seems realizes that he is in way over his head and that being president isn’t something he really wants.

Trump has become America’s shadow, and such projections on an individual don’t usually end well.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #87 on: August 22, 2016, 09:35:10 PM »
In some ways a shadow, but more insidiously in some ways a reflection.  What does it say about us that he can claim he could shoot somebody on 5th Avenue and not lose any votes?  So far saying that doesn't seem to have cost him any.

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #88 on: August 23, 2016, 12:39:31 PM »
The latest I heard was that he brought Stephen Bannon on board so that, if he lost the election, he would have a platform to be the voice of the Alt Right.  He could be a political commentator/blowhard for the rest of his life.

What possibly could be better for him? :)
Trump TV led by Ailes, featuring Bannon's newshounds from Breitbart with the wisdom and insight of News Manager Pudge Hannity.  FOX News, you're going down! 

rightleft22

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #89 on: August 23, 2016, 01:05:03 PM »
It’s fascinating… and sad

His campaign strategy isn’t so much about policy but character and appearance and which regards to being a man of character he has clearly demonstrated by his words actions that he has very little of yet it doesn’t matter. It maters when it’s a failure in one of his opponents but that it is also a failure he has demonstrated its ok to over look. WTF

Yesterday’s sound bite that Hillary doesn’t look presidential…. I look presidential. Sets of the debate of if Hillary looks precedential, if it’s a woman thing bla bla bla… but nothing, or very little, on if Trump looks presidential. 

Later he will use his statement that he looks presidential  as evidence that people think he looks presidential.  And it works!!!

My young nephew, right leaning Christian bordering on fundamentalists, is, as are all such “good” Christion’s Republican.  It’s a Pavlov response kind of thing that even if and when Trump spits in the face of every value that this well-meaning young man holds so dear he will still support him and you can’t enter into discussion about it.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 01:09:10 PM by rightleft22 »

AI Wessex

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #90 on: August 23, 2016, 07:32:37 PM »
I will give Trump credit for one thing, that when he says something he says what he means and means what he says, at least when he says it.  Watch out for the wall, I think it's going to fall.  The question is what will those who loved him for the wall say when there is no wall at all.

rightleft22

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #91 on: August 24, 2016, 10:53:53 AM »
I think most people missed this during Trumps speech at the convention but he implied that he was responsible for NATO new combat terrorism program which has been in the works for quite some time and is constantly undergoing revision, if slowly, as needs arise.

US Immigration policies and vetting are already very “firm” and my bet is that Trump will change very little in those processes but eventually take credit for them.

Wayward Son

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #92 on: August 24, 2016, 02:59:36 PM »
FiveThirtyEight did an interesting analysis, comparing the state polls from the previous election to the current polls for this one.

Result: Trump is making more states competitive.  For Hillary.

Only 12 states are less likely to vote Democrat than they did in 2012, most of them Democratic states, and all but 2 no where near competitive.  28 states (by my count) are significantly more likely to vote Democratic, with Utah leading everyone else in the dust.  Four of them appear competitive.

I guess Mormons really dislike Trump.  :o

TheDeamon

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #93 on: August 24, 2016, 04:35:37 PM »
I guess Mormons really dislike Trump.  :o

They dislike the Clinton's too. If they were running anyone but Hillary, it would be even more of a runaway race with them.

cherrypoptart

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Re: michael Moore predicts Trump victory
« Reply #94 on: March 20, 2017, 09:22:16 PM »
http://www.ornery.org/forum/index.php/topic,196.msg7179.html#msg7179

cherrypoptart

Quote
To me one obvious thing to do is to run cable in it with high res cameras along the line that anyone anywhere in the world can access and look at anytime they want and submit a report if they see anything suspicious.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/03/4chans-pol-using-border-webcams-help-report-illegals/

The largely pro-Trump 4Chan internet message board has recently taken it upon themselves to help ICE agents catch and report illegals entering the United States.

The mostly pro-Trump 4Chan political page is using border webcams to help report illegal alien crossings.

    /pol/ discovers that they can use webcams to scan the US-Mexico border for illegal immigrants, sending tips to Border Patrol. pic.twitter.com/EaZ52ClXGO

    — /pol/ News Network (@polNewsNetwork1) March 19, 2017

As reported by /pol/’s News Network Twitter account, they just recently discovered that live streams of the US-Mexico border are available via http://blueservo.com/ . The website has become so popular that it has currently exceeded its bandwith at the time of writing this.