Author Topic: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018  (Read 30290 times)

DJQuag

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #50 on: November 10, 2016, 06:03:12 PM »
Cherry, all due respect, but *censored* off.

I lived in Arizona. The Mexicans around here worked harder then any white people I knew.

As for Arpaio, he ran and won the past two times based on racism. But his guards beat a retarded man to death whilst he was restrained. He arrested people who ran negative articles about him. He cost taxpayers at minimum 100 million dollars in lawsuits. (For a STATE government.)

The guy was a douchebag. Don't demean yourself by defending him.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #51 on: November 10, 2016, 07:06:57 PM »
There are also Americans murdered, raped and murdered, people probably including Americans kidnapped and held in sex slavery, and victims of other heinous crimes because of politicians and law enforcement officials, for instance those in San Francisco, who ignore our immigration laws and in at least one San Francisco example got a beautiful and innocent American woman shot in the back and killed for no reason. Nobody seems to have a problem defending sanctuary cities and politicians who ignore the laws even though they enable many of these criminals including thousands of MS-13 gang members. Obama was responsible for releasing thousands of criminal illegals back into the American population even though there were rapists and murderers among them. The violent crimes they committed are far worse than anything that can be pinned on Arpaio.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/ice-releases-19723-criminal-illegals-208-convicted-of-murder-900-of-sex-crimes/article/2589785

"The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency in 2015 decided not to deport but release 19,723 criminal illegal immigrants, including 208 convicted of murder, over 900 convicted of sex crimes and 12,307 of drunk driving, according to new government numbers.

Overall, those released into virtually every state and territory of America had a total of 64,197 convictions among them, for an average of 3.25 convictions each, according to an analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies. ICE also said that the group were convicted of 8,234 violent crimes."

"When ICE releases criminal aliens instead of deporting them, the chances are high that the aliens will re-offend. According to the Bureau of Justice Statistics, approximately 71 percent of violent offenders, 77 percent of drug offenders, and 82 percent of property offenders will be arrested for a new crime within five years of release from jail or prison. Drunk drivers are especially prone to offend repeatedly. According to an FBI statistic cited by Mothers Against Drunk Driving, the average drunk driver has driven drunk 80 times before ever being arrested."


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It's good to worry about the victims of Arpaio but I think there needs to be an equal concern about the victims of the people he has to deal with. He's in a bad situation and surely there are mistakes that have been made. If he's made some bad ones then he should answer for them. I will say though that he is dealing not just with hard working illegals but also straight up violent cutthroats and rapists as well and it can't be an easy job. I would like to see if the person who replaces him can do a better job, not just in treating the illegals more humanely but also in helping to minimize crimes against innocent Americans and even non-violent illegals who are often the targets of the violent ones. If Joe's replacement does a great job at treating illegals well but that results in more innocent Americans becoming victims is that really an improvement to be proud of?

Now I'll admit I don't know that much about him and maybe it's true that I shouldn't be defending him and wouldn't be if I knew more, but one thing I do know from most of these Black Lives Matter stories is that the pertinent facts are often omitted or downplayed by the lying media as well as supposed witnesses in order to purposefully make law enforcement look bad. I'm willing to give law enforcement the benefit of the doubt. They are the guys and women putting their lives on the line to protect the rest of us. We have no idea what it's really like out there on the street with them. In one of the stories in a link I gave there were taken to task for going to the house next to the one they were raiding and detaining two innocent people for several hours but the house that they actually did raid was legitimately a massive criminal enterprise. The police playing it safe is not something I hold against them.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #52 on: November 10, 2016, 07:16:51 PM »
Apparently he spoke at the RNC to stump for Trump.

I have to believe they knew as much as there is to know about the guy and they didn't have a problem with him.

There are many Hispanics in the RNC and they also didn't seem to have a problem.

At least now that he's gone we can expect to see a vast improvement in conditions there under the guy George Soros replaced him with. We should definitely keep up with the situation because if the conditions don't improve dramatically and relatively quickly that could mean the problems are institutional and with funding instead of just being the fault of one guy.

DonaldD

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #53 on: November 10, 2016, 08:03:40 PM »
Quote
The remaining 1/3 were pure partisans and anti-Hillary - people who perceive Hillary as the anti-Christ (or not far from it).
See, you missed a perfectly good opportunity to go in another direction, say: "people who perceive Hillary as the anti-Christ (or at least his former secretary of state)".

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #54 on: November 11, 2016, 11:02:40 AM »
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Hopefully after the wall goes up and the border is secured when there aren't so many illegals we can treat the few who do manage to get across much more politely and we can also treat our own American citizens of Hispanic descent with the dignity they deserve.  It's just a very sad situation, like when you have Muslim terrorists infiltrated amongst good hearted law abiding Muslims and you can't tell which is which so end up being suspicious of them all. Once we finally get the situation back under control maybe we can go back to being a civilized country instead of a paranoid one where no one can trust anyone else because a lawless President has us all living in anarchy.

Well, I hope you can show us the way on how to react to these threats in a lawful and just manner.  Because once we've successfully taken care of these threats from minorities, you know we will be going after the threats from the majority population, since, after all, there is more killing done by them than by the minorities.  And you can be sure every perfected technique will be used to address this greater threat.  Maybe not in this Administration, or the next, but soon.

Who knows?  Maybe Apario will still be in charge when that occurs.  Now isn't that a comforting thought. ;)

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #55 on: November 11, 2016, 12:50:56 PM »
Who knows?  Maybe Apario will still be in charge when that occurs.  Now isn't that a comforting thought. ;)

...Or Trump will be saying "You're fired!" to him within his first year of office. Trump broke "all kinds of rules" (of politics) this election cycle. Don't be surprised if he likewise "breaks all kinds of rules" as to how a President manages his cabinet staff.

The alt-right helped get him in office, they DO have some ideas which have merit. From the Trump school of management, it's one of those "Why not give them a chance?" decisions. They'll get their moment to prove or disprove their arguments. If it works, great. If it starts to train-wreck, well, they're out the door. It isn't like Trump is going defend every cabinet secretary he nominates to the hilt like Obama did for much of his appointed staff. Pretty good odds that if a high-level staffer screws up under Trump, they're going to be gone.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #56 on: November 11, 2016, 01:27:24 PM »
I think the "new thing" in the coming months will be:
#sausage
and
#makingsausage

You know, that old adage about sausage factories, and how much they resemble politics. Methinks Trump is going bring a nice big spotlight upon the entire process and revel in it.


Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #57 on: November 11, 2016, 05:35:52 PM »
Who knows?  Maybe Apario will still be in charge when that occurs.  Now isn't that a comforting thought. ;)

...Or Trump will be saying "You're fired!" to him within his first year of office. Trump broke "all kinds of rules" (of politics) this election cycle. Don't be surprised if he likewise "breaks all kinds of rules" as to how a President manages his cabinet staff.

The alt-right helped get him in office, they DO have some ideas which have merit. From the Trump school of management, it's one of those "Why not give them a chance?" decisions. They'll get their moment to prove or disprove their arguments. If it works, great. If it starts to train-wreck, well, they're out the door. It isn't like Trump is going defend every cabinet secretary he nominates to the hilt like Obama did for much of his appointed staff. Pretty good odds that if a high-level staffer screws up under Trump, they're going to be gone.

Actually, at this point, I wouldn't be surprised at anything.  Trump is a tabula rasa as far as which policies he will enact and which he won't.  Which is why making predictions about what he will do is so hard.  I don't think even he has any idea just yet. :)

But, of course, you should amend your post with "I hope."  Because even you have no idea what he's going to do.  He may leave all decisions to his staff, and just ignore any criticisms of them, even more so than Obama.  After all, he's the boss, right?  He doesn't have to listen to anyone.  And running a country is just like running a business, right?

And for giving the Alt-Right a "chance:"  they are some of his most enthusiastic of his base.  What makes you think he would toss them out the door?  I mean, who would be cheering him in the rallies if they left?  What would talk about in his speeches if he dropped all the Alt-Right catch-phrases?  His whole "ideology" is Alt-Right ideas.  He may be wedded too closely to them to throw them out.

Which means you will be wedded to them, too, through him. ;)

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #58 on: November 11, 2016, 08:39:56 PM »
Oh he shows the alt-Right out the door. They may have been his way in, but now that he's there, it time to get to work.

But yeah, until we get into February, just about everything is going to be pure speculation for anyone not in Trump's inner circle.

Ronald Lambert

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #59 on: November 11, 2016, 09:56:10 PM »
Now we are beginning to hear Trump walking back some of his more extreme statements, even suggesting he might preserve some parts of Obamacare. I said this might happen back when he was waging his nomination battle with more worthy candidates, like Ted Cruz and Ben Carson. As I and others have pointed out, Trump has been a lifelong liberal Democrat, and even gave substantial donations to Hillary's presidential bid in 2008. I'm just glad the Clinton crime family did not get to take over the White House. We'll have to see how many of his promises Trump keeps. The first real test will come in whom he nominates to replace Justice Anton Scalia on the Supreme Court.

NobleHunter

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #60 on: November 12, 2016, 12:58:50 PM »
The first real test will come in whom he nominates to replace Justice Anton Scalia on the Supreme Court.
I wonder if the GOP will let the filibustering rule stands. If they do, the Democrats should filibuster the hell out of any nominee remotely similar to Scalia. There's no reason the GOP should a judge they prefer from refusing to do their job.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #61 on: November 12, 2016, 01:09:30 PM »
The first real test will come in whom he nominates to replace Justice Anton Scalia on the Supreme Court.
I wonder if the GOP will let the filibustering rule stands. If they do, the Democrats should filibuster the hell out of any nominee remotely similar to Scalia. There's no reason the GOP should a judge they prefer from refusing to do their job.

I thought it still only needed 51 votes to end a filibuster?

The Democrats lowered the Bar while they were control, and the Republicans never put it back.

Ok correction checking wiki:

Quote
On November 21, 2013, the Senate used the so-called "nuclear option," voting 52-48, with all Republicans and 3 Democrats voting against, to eliminate the use of the filibuster on executive branch nominees and judicial nominees other than to the Supreme Court.

Republicans have made no changes to the rules since taking control back, though they've talked about it. So that one is still on the books.
« Last Edit: November 12, 2016, 01:15:50 PM by TheDeamon »

rightleft22

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #62 on: November 12, 2016, 01:11:12 PM »
Unfortunately the end is always in the beginning

I suspect that trump believes that the ends justify the means which allowed him to say the things he said the way he said them regardless of things like facts and truth.

Even after months of election babble we still do not know what Trump really believes or for that matter who is really is. 

That problem is he used fear, misinformation, intimidation, hyperbole… to fire up his base. What happens to this base if he pulls back from his more extreme positions? Will they let him? Maybe this is elitism bias, what ever this elitism is, but he has some very extreme emotional people backing him.

Trump played with fire and like all those that play with fire will likely end up burned. Let us hope without burning down the house.

My perdition their will be fire

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #63 on: November 12, 2016, 01:18:04 PM »
My perdition their will be fire

Best typos ever.

NobleHunter

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #64 on: November 12, 2016, 01:20:20 PM »
I thought it still only needed 51 votes to end a filibuster?

The Democrats lowered the Bar while they were control, and the Republicans never put it back.
IRRC, the change didn't apply to the Supreme Court, though there's no particular obstacle preventing the GOP from doing that.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #65 on: November 12, 2016, 03:03:26 PM »
I thought it still only needed 51 votes to end a filibuster?

The Democrats lowered the Bar while they were control, and the Republicans never put it back.
IRRC, the change didn't apply to the Supreme Court, though there's no particular obstacle preventing the GOP from doing that.

Yes, Wiki indicates the SCotUS nominations are still subject to cloture by a 60 vote margin, unless the minority leader + 8 other members of the minority party's membership petition for it.

And as already established thanks to the Democrats, the Republicans can indeed implement such a rule change with just 51 votes.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #66 on: November 12, 2016, 03:12:25 PM »
...and in a venue elsewhere, I'm now hearing claims that basically sound like a lot of people belive Donald Trump is going to make it legal for people to perpetuate hate crimes against the LGBT+ crowd, to the level that many of them may end up killed as a consequence.  ???

Someone needs to lay off the drugs.

DJQuag

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #67 on: November 12, 2016, 03:24:30 PM »
...and in a venue elsewhere, I'm now hearing claims that basically sound like a lot of people belive Donald Trump is going to make it legal for people to perpetuate hate crimes against the LGBT+ crowd, to the level that many of them may end up killed as a consequence.  ???

Someone needs to lay off the drugs.

I personally feel that people need to be careful about this boy crying wolf bull*censored*.

Trump, his team, and whoever comes after him (because come on, who here thinks Trump won't commit an impeachable offense? ) will do an awful lot of really bad *censored*. But it won't help our cause to declare that the concentration camps are opening up over every little thing.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #68 on: November 12, 2016, 04:16:25 PM »
Trump, his team, and whoever comes after him (because come on, who here thinks Trump won't commit an impeachable offense? ) will do an awful lot of really bad *censored*. But it won't help our cause to declare that the concentration camps are opening up over every little thing.

On Trump getting impeached: I'm agreeable, the Republicans (and Democrats) will probably be more than happy to impeach him if he provides them the chance.

I'm currently at a coin toss on if he actually wanted to be President or not, I'm still leaning towards he was in the race for the Publicity. If it was for the publicity, he's going to try to get "run out of office" as quickly as possible, be that by resignation or Impeachment.

Of course, then we have to deal with President Pence, unless someone finds a way to remove him from the picture first. In which case we may be looking at a President Paul Ryan(the last Republican VP to resign was replaced by the Ranking Republican in the House of Representatives--Which gave us President Ford), which would be hilarious for other reasons--mostly due to 2012.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #69 on: November 12, 2016, 07:07:15 PM »
...and in a venue elsewhere, I'm now hearing claims that basically sound like a lot of people belive Donald Trump is going to make it legal for people to perpetuate hate crimes against the LGBT+ crowd, to the level that many of them may end up killed as a consequence.  ???

Someone needs to lay off the drugs.

I personally feel that people need to be careful about this boy crying wolf bull*censored*.

Oh, they're doubling down on it now. It seems a lot of (young) people within the LGBT+ community are killing themselves out of fear over what a Donald Trump Presidency will be like for them.

And evidently, it is all Donald Trump's fault. It couldn't possibly have been due to any fear mongering on the part of left-wing trying to scare people into voting for Hillary now, could it?

rightleft22

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #70 on: November 12, 2016, 08:59:21 PM »
Doubling down the new political reality.
 

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #71 on: November 12, 2016, 09:52:18 PM »
Doubling down the new political reality.

The person I was engaging in that particular exchange ultimately declared I was "blaming the victim" and after declaring the moral high ground, ignored me.  ::)

Evidently pointing out that, by his own admission, lots of LGBT+ people are killing themselves because they're freaking out and afraid while much of the social support network is doing the same thing(freaking out and being afraid).  Qualifies as "blaming the victim."

Besides being technically correct when it comes to suicides, if they hadn't killed themselves they'd still be alive. There is that whole matter of "WHY were they 'freaking out and afraid?'"

If they're afraid, and their social support network is also afraid, there is something else going on. But that means doing some self-reflection, and they're clearly not ready for that right now.


TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #72 on: November 12, 2016, 10:46:29 PM »
Further checking, seems to be that the alleged "(suicide) death spike" may not be a real thing at all. Will take a bit longer to be certain, but right now I understand that even GLAAD doesn't think it's happening.

Spike in crises calls? Certainly, but not deaths so far as anyone can tell right now.

rightleft22

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #73 on: November 13, 2016, 12:03:03 PM »
Just been hearing  the "Doubling down" strategy a lot lately 
In stead of reflecting on if a statement or position is reasonable and or if there might be a reason people are reacting as they are to what was said, you double down.   That's the thing with the lie that is "truthful hyperbole" you double down by increasing the hyperbole.

I'm afraid were going to be seeing more of this type of  rhetoric as it as proven to be so effective. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #74 on: November 13, 2016, 01:24:35 PM »
Just been hearing  the "Doubling down" strategy a lot lately

It was a lot of the Obama Admin strategy for his terms of office.

Republicans don't want to cooperate? Stonewall them, and lambast them in the media.
Make "nice conciliatory noises" in the press, but never carry through on it. Instead, go visit various "politically optimal" locations to maximize "optics" as to the people being "harmed" by the evil, diabolical, and intransigent Republicans.
Take no responsibility yourself, just keep talking about "how you're willing to work with them" while not actually following through(in good faith), and deflect all blame back at them.

Trump just exacerbated the whole problem because now both sides have politicians who are now demonstrably proven to be fully capable of, and willing to, lie through their teeth to your face. Republicans were typically hammered because they were being (reasonably) honest about things(and inept at communicating things), so far as politicians go, at least.

Will make the next few years interesting to say the least, now that the Democrats have to contend with a PotUS who isn't a Democrat, and is just as willing as they are to lie, deflect, and defer to the American public. Even better at the moment, since like Obama in 2008, his party controls Congress for at least the next 2 years.

Maybe they'll learn to be a lot more honest in their dealings with the American public going forward after this is over and done with? I'm not holding my breath.

yossarian22c

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #75 on: November 13, 2016, 10:17:13 PM »
Predictions are hard to make but here are some of my fears:
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.
2) The economy goes into a recession, Trump demagogues trade and all things foreign passes reactionary tariffs leading to a trade war and GD2.
3) Trumps bluster breaks apart the coalition battling ISIS leading to a resurgence of ISIS while what remains of the other rebels gets slaughtered by Russian planes.
4) Trumps bluster leads to an increase of recruiting of Muslim extremest from within the USA as many in that community will feel more alienated and threatened.
5) Trump makes gives the US the reputation (with his potential working relationship with Putin) of being an extortion racket demanding more money/concessions for our mutual defense alliances.  This leads to a much stronger anti-American sentiment throughout the world, particularly in places once considered friendly to America.
6) Trump gets to appoint enough SC justices to have an impact on the country for 30+ years.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #76 on: November 14, 2016, 12:04:15 AM »
Predictions are hard to make but here are some of my fears:
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.

The numbers don't add up, and the favored plan does questionable good at great expense. There are other, more productive(and cost effective) ways to use that money to have a positive impact on the environment. Besides which, as the past 8 years demonstrated here in the US.

The CO2 emissions went down DESPITE efforts to reduce it, not because of them. Natural Gas, another fossil fuel, absolutely murdered the coal fired power plants in the United States. That one definitely wasn't very high on anyone's green agenda.

Yes, do research energy alternatives, but let's not sink our economy into giant financial boondoggles involving the "right now" tech, and wait for the market to find a greener soluton(s). As happened with Natural Gas, once a cleaner and cheaper option opens up, it can and will dominate the market with little outside (government) assistance needed. Lets not wreck the global economy in the interim, that just reduces our ability to respond to the problems that are going to crop up anyway at this point.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2016, 12:08:00 AM by TheDeamon »

Fenring

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #77 on: November 14, 2016, 08:43:29 AM »
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.

I suspect that the solution to climate change will end up being technological rather than economic.

Quote
3) Trumps bluster breaks apart the coalition battling ISIS leading to a resurgence of ISIS while what remains of the other rebels gets slaughtered by Russian planes.

What coalition? Right now it consists of Syria and Russia, and the current administration was trying to break up that coalition.

Quote
4) Trumps bluster leads to an increase of recruiting of Muslim extremest from within the USA as many in that community will feel more alienated and threatened.

I don't believe local bluster would affect this one way or the other. Foreign policy will have a far greater effect on how many people are disaffected enough to want to do something about it.

Quote
5) Trump makes gives the US the reputation (with his potential working relationship with Putin) of being an extortion racket demanding more money/concessions for our mutual defense alliances.  This leads to a much stronger anti-American sentiment throughout the world, particularly in places once considered friendly to America.

I think the ship has already sailed on this one...

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #78 on: November 14, 2016, 09:36:19 AM »
5) Trump makes gives the US the reputation (with his potential working relationship with Putin) of being an extortion racket demanding more money/concessions for our mutual defense alliances.  This leads to a much stronger anti-American sentiment throughout the world, particularly in places once considered friendly to America.

I think the ship has already sailed on this one...

Indeed, if Bush(43) didn't alienate them, Obama did. That ship has well and truly sailed. We've got a long road to haul if we're going to get back to what we had back in the 1990's.

And we'd probably either need another cold war, or "large hot war," to pull THAT off, neither option seems particularly appealing to me.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #79 on: November 14, 2016, 09:43:00 AM »
1) Trump unilaterally withdraws from all climate treaties leading to a chain reaction of other nations doing the same and it takes a generation to get things on moving again. The delay makes the action cost much more in lives and money and less effective to combat climate change.

I suspect that the solution to climate change will end up being technological rather than economic.

Yeah, I forget what the exact number was, but several years ago the EU pledged to invest in Solar and Wind Technology, in order to reduce their GHG emissions. At an estimated additional annual cost of over $2.5 Billion(Euro) per year over the better part of the next century. For an estimated change in Global Warming of maybe a quarter of a degree.

Could you imagine the progress that could be made in material science and physical sciences if they were willing to throw that kind of annual money at Fusion Power research?

Or you know, instead directed that money towards getting more people in the third world off of the "dirty energy" sources they're using to cook with, light their homes(news flash: not everybody has electric lighting), etc. Heck, just getting them better cooking stoves would help a lot, and cost a lot less.

rightleft22

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #80 on: November 14, 2016, 10:56:44 AM »
Once again we have chosen short term economic gain to benefit the few over long term
So glad I don’t have children.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #81 on: November 14, 2016, 03:30:53 PM »
Once again we have chosen short term economic gain to benefit the few over long term
So glad I don’t have children.

Larger economies have larger tool chests they can use to address problems. Those "short term" gains likewise turn into long term gains for everyone else when markets are allowed to operate efficiently.

The "problem" is many of the solutions being pushed currently, are actually the ones that provide significant short term gains for a select number of people and groups, at great cost to everyone else. With little actual net gain to be had, because they're making the market behave in ineffective and inefficient ways. It is diverting resources that could have been better used elsewhere.

Fenring

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #82 on: November 15, 2016, 09:24:32 AM »
I'll go ahead and make a prediction about Trump's Presidency. I think he will veer left, back to what was always presumed to be his political leaning, and will turn out to be far more centrist than either side was willing to believe. He will, on the one hand, somewhat betray right-extremists who were hoping for a Terminator to mop up the undesirables, and on the other hand, betray the hatred of the left by not being the boogeyman they are almost gleefully hoping him to be. It's much less empowering, after all, to merely dislike the man, rather than to be able to say he's a neo-Hitler. I can't predict how well his first term goes, but assuming it does go well, he will have more bipartisan support than he had in this election and might win again after having lost some of his hard-line right wing support but gained the support of centrists who realize he is very far from being a neocon.

D.W.

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #83 on: November 15, 2016, 09:31:00 AM »
I predict voters 4 to 8 years from now will have a far better idea of what a president can and cannot actually do compared to what we are use to them promising they will do if elected.

Maybe we should teach this stuff in school...  :P

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #84 on: November 15, 2016, 09:47:51 AM »
I'll go ahead and make a prediction about Trump's Presidency. I think he will veer left, back to what was always presumed to be his political leaning, and will turn out to be far more centrist than either side was willing to believe. He will, on the one hand, somewhat betray right-extremists who were hoping for a Terminator to mop up the undesirables, and on the other hand, betray the hatred of the left by not being the boogeyman they are almost gleefully hoping him to be. It's much less empowering, after all, to merely dislike the man, rather than to be able to say he's a neo-Hitler. I can't predict how well his first term goes, but assuming it does go well, he will have more bipartisan support than he had in this election and might win again after having lost some of his hard-line right wing support but gained the support of centrists who realize he is very far from being a neocon.

Which is why I made the prediction he is likely to be hated by both sides before all is said and done. Much of the (racist/anti-gay) "alt-right"(who aren't very "right-wing" on a number of things, but I guess that's why "Alt" as in alternative is such an apt appendage to their title) because he "betrayed them" and the extreme left because he's "stealing their issues" and obtaining a solid unassailable hold on the political center.

I said it earlier, I'll say it again. Running for a new political office, in particular, a High Office, is near impossible to do as a centrist/moderate in the United States(Romney and McCain both demonstrated this, IMO). You'll be torn apart by all sides. Which is why Trump didn't run as one. However, when it comes to re-election, in particular for Presidents, the incumbent has a huge advantage, particularly if most people are happy with things have been going.

So there is a bit more than wild speculation behind the theory he ran as far-right to get elected(who knows, he may agree with them on a very short list of issues--like securing the border), as that protected him from one flank, without overly alienating him from the center. Now that he's in office, he can pivot towards the center. But while this may be a bit more than wild speculation, it remains speculation until the rubber hits the road as it were, we'll see what he does after he takes office.

rightleft22

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #85 on: November 15, 2016, 10:54:50 AM »
I think this alt movement is bigger and darker then were currently aware of…

Something we don’t yet understand is happening and I don’t think we’re going to like it

All this rationalizing – from the same people who got it all wrong, we don’t know what we’re talking about.

I can’ get the image of Trump entrance at the GOP convention as a rising backlit shadow rising out of my mind.

I predict history will use this image as the warning America ignored.

NobleHunter

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #86 on: November 15, 2016, 11:56:39 AM »
I think this alt movement is bigger and darker then were currently aware of…

Something we don’t yet understand is happening and I don’t think we’re going to like it

All this rationalizing – from the same people who got it all wrong, we don’t know what we’re talking about.

I can’ get the image of Trump entrance at the GOP convention as a rising backlit shadow rising out of my mind.

I predict history will use this image as the warning America ignored.
I think this is at the core of why so many people are freaking out. Association with the alt-right should be the kiss of death for a mainstream politician. It's been fifty years of work to drive their "alt" viewpoints out of the mainstream. The problem isn't just Trump, it's that he's empowered and legitimized some fairly nasty people. It's also not clear that he'll do much to prevent some truly idiotic moves by the anti-governance wing of the GOP.

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #87 on: November 15, 2016, 01:56:10 PM »
Trump is bound to "veer left" because his promises are so far to the right, he can't (and never could) possibly keep them. :)

The Wall won't be a 10-12 ft. concrete barrier stretching the entire length of the Mexican boarder.  (In fact, he will probably add only a few hundred miles of fencing to what already exists.)  Illegal immigration, as measured by authoritative sources will be higher by the end of the next term than it is currently.  Breitbart (or equivalent) will publish their own bogus numbers, which Trump will cite.

He won't deport the entire 11 million illegal immigrants in this country.  He'll probably deport less than half of them, if that, and then declare victory.  And, after an initial push that will last for a few months, he will pull back any actions against employers hiring illegal immigrants.

He will toss out the TPP, but he won't make a "better deal" and we will end up in a worse situation (probably without an agreement).

We will come to the brink of a trade war with China and maybe some other nations, but he'll back off at the last minute, and most economists will agree that we are worse off as a result.  He will, however, declare that we are much better off, and Fox and Brietbart will agree.  Inflation will increase, while production will decline.

He will cut taxes, but most of the cuts will go to the top 5% or less.  Many in the middle and lower classes will actually pay more in taxes.  The deficit will increase.

He will get a Transportation Works bill through Congress, since Obama won't get credit for it anymore. :)  But the bill won't be paid for, and the deficit will increase.

He will move back civil rights for gays and minorities, and expand libel laws, until the Supreme Court finds his actions illegal.  He will declare the Supreme Court biased and rigged, and may not respect one or more of the rulings, which would lead to a Constitutional crisis.

He will, of course, repeal Obamacare.  After a few months, he will sign a new health care law, which he will say is better than the ACA.  Millions of people who have health insurance now will no longer have it with the new plan.  And the new plan will not be sustainable, since it still has the clauses to allow people to join with pre-existing conditions.  After a few years, he will remove that clause, if the plan was not replaced by a single-payer system.  Premiums will be much higher than they are now.

We will have more terrorist attacks than we did during the Obama Administration.  Trump will use them to give the government more power and to limit more rights, mainly for minorities.  The Presidency will be more powerful than it was with Obama.

And heaven help us if there is a major terrorist attack on the order of 9/11.  Because he will ask from Congress sweeping powers, and he will get most of them.  This would be in line with creating a fascist state, such as the way the Riechstag fire was used.  (I sincerely hope I am wrong about this--but remember, you heard it here first! :)  :'( )

The EPA will be eliminated or severely hobbled.  Overall air and water quality will be worse as a result.

So while many things that the Right wants--Obamacare repealed, the EPA hobbled, taxes cut, gays and minorities not having more rights than whites--will happen, many things the Right doesn't want--more government, a worse economy, a higher deficit, fewer rights--will also occur as a result of the things that Trump will do.

The Right, of course, will blame all the bad things on the Left. :)
« Last Edit: November 15, 2016, 02:00:32 PM by Wayward Son »

Fenring

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #88 on: November 15, 2016, 02:55:44 PM »
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-50k-bails-for-northwestern-university-students-accused-of-chapel-vandalism-20160312-story.html

Quote
A Cook County judge on Saturday lashed out at two Northwestern University freshmen accused of spray-painting racist and homophobic messages along with the name of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump inside a nondenominational chapel on the university's campus.

I often wonder about the reports I'm hearing on social media about all of the "sudden" racism, homophobia, and violence being exhibited since Trump's election. The liberal echo chamber is clamoring to prove that Trump being elected has incited all sorts of people to act out their hateful fantasies, the implication being that Trump's presence will cause America to slide back into being an anarchic pool of mayhem.

While it is certainly possible that some of these reports do have validity, a story such as this should demonstrate to us not to believe a word that is said about motives behind any acts that end up ascribed to Trump's bad influence. This one was caught on camera and so there was no question that it was a deliberate false flag desecration of a church meant to implicate Trump supporters. How many other events of this type might also be much the same? Without going into a point-by-point analysis of every story flying around social media right now, my suggestion would be to be very cautious to believe any of what's being said right now about Trump supporters. This may end up being similar to during the election process, where I do not believe the main disturbances at rallies were originating from Trump people.

NobleHunter

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #89 on: November 15, 2016, 04:59:39 PM »
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-50k-bails-for-northwestern-university-students-accused-of-chapel-vandalism-20160312-story.html

Quote
A Cook County judge on Saturday lashed out at two Northwestern University freshmen accused of spray-painting racist and homophobic messages along with the name of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump inside a nondenominational chapel on the university's campus.

I often wonder about the reports I'm hearing on social media about all of the "sudden" racism, homophobia, and violence being exhibited since Trump's election. The liberal echo chamber is clamoring to prove that Trump being elected has incited all sorts of people to act out their hateful fantasies, the implication being that Trump's presence will cause America to slide back into being an anarchic pool of mayhem.

While it is certainly possible that some of these reports do have validity, a story such as this should demonstrate to us not to believe a word that is said about motives behind any acts that end up ascribed to Trump's bad influence. This one was caught on camera and so there was no question that it was a deliberate false flag desecration of a church meant to implicate Trump supporters. How many other events of this type might also be much the same? Without going into a point-by-point analysis of every story flying around social media right now, my suggestion would be to be very cautious to believe any of what's being said right now about Trump supporters. This may end up being similar to during the election process, where I do not believe the main disturbances at rallies were originating from Trump people.
How is this a false flag? There's nothing in the link about the idiots' motivation.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #90 on: November 15, 2016, 09:57:38 PM »
I think this is at the core of why so many people are freaking out. Association with the alt-right should be the kiss of death for a mainstream politician. It's been fifty years of work to drive their "alt" viewpoints out of the mainstream. The problem isn't just Trump, it's that he's empowered and legitimized some fairly nasty people. It's also not clear that he'll do much to prevent some truly idiotic moves by the anti-governance wing of the GOP.

I think the "Dark side" "alt right" is probably bigger than most people think it is, but I also think it is a LOT smaller than a lot of people are fearing it to be. Only time will tell where exactly that middle ground turns out to be.

That being said, "the alt-right empowerment" that was witnessed this election cycle had very little to do with Donald Trump, although he certainly capitalized on it.

It was 8 years of the Obama Administration, and the almost pro-forma tendency to call anyone who disagreed with Obama a racist. Which helped give rise to the conditions we're seeing now, where people jumping up and down and screaming about Trump and company "being Racist" was met with people simply rolling their eyes.

This was stuff Glenn Beck and others were warning about after about the first year of Obama. The label "racist" was being over-used, and they were creating a boy-who-cried-wolf scenario. "Oh they're calling us racist? Don't they realize that term is almost meaningless now? They use it on everyone."

AI Wessex

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #91 on: November 15, 2016, 10:04:17 PM »
Wayward, I think you nailed things well, though you left out a few.  He and the Republican House will hobble medicare and the Department of Education will become vestigial.   More failures amid dour predictions to come as the picture becomes more clear. The only glimmer of hope is that even the Republicans in Congress appear ready to oppose some of his proposals.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #92 on: November 15, 2016, 10:38:05 PM »

> TheDeamon

> "Oh they're calling us racist? Don't they realize that term is almost meaningless now? They use it on everyone."

Not on everyone. But that makes your point even better. When liberals boast that Obama has deported more illegals than Bush that's not racist. But when Trump wants to simply enforce existing immigration law and secure the border that absolutely is racist.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #93 on: November 15, 2016, 10:59:55 PM »

> TheDeamon

> "Oh they're calling us racist? Don't they realize that term is almost meaningless now? They use it on everyone."

Not on everyone. But that makes your point even better. When liberals boast that Obama has deported more illegals than Bush that's not racist. But when Trump wants to simply enforce existing immigration law and secure the border that absolutely is racist.

That too.

But just looking at this forum I'm scratching my head.

If a person has spent the better part of the past 8 years being almost constantly accused of being racist on basically no basis at all. Is it shocking that they'd ignore warnings coming from the same quarters that have been making unsubstantiated claims as to their(personally) being racist?

As mentioned, the better part of the time since the 1940's has been spent trying to marginalize Racial Supremacy groups, and to great effect. Then Obama becomes President, we enter a "Post-Racial America" where promptly any views dissenting from Obama's plan is immediately labelled Racist, and all discussion ends.

Congratulations, 8 years of abusing a term for political expediency in the interest of shaming the dissenting view, rather than opening dialogues with them, has given rise to "Donald Trump and the Alt-Right."

I have hopes that Trump is separable from the Alt-Right and is not actually "invested" in their ideas more than superficially. But we'll see. Either way, this entire situation has a whole lot to do with power politics and "the politics of shame" as they've been getting applied over the past decade. This isn't something that just suddenly cropped up out of the blue this election cycle. 

The good news is the Republican Congressional Delegation hasn't changed much, so if Trump does try to push a hard core racist agenda, much of the RNC is likely to push back as well as the Democrats.

Fenring

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #94 on: November 15, 2016, 11:11:31 PM »

How is this a false flag? There's nothing in the link about the idiots' motivation.

Not a slam dunk for sure, and it's entirely possible for such an event to be a mixed motive. For instance if they were drunk (as their attorney argued) the desecration might have been for fun, while adding the name of Trump to it could have knowingly been a piece of mayhem they knew would give their act a certain attribution other than what it really was. So in this sense I don't mean false flag to necessarily mean a deliberate piece of planned political sabotage, as it could also include an improvised act that had the public image of Trump in mind. Especially as (not cited in this article) one of them was the son of the MA chief justice, it would have been relevant to deflect blame from himself onto the sorts of people 'expected' to do this sort of thing.

The only thing I'm mention as a caveat that I forgot to before is that this happened several months ago, and so isn't strictly relevant to Trump winning but rather to the narrative that Trump inspires violence, which went back through the primaries.

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #95 on: November 15, 2016, 11:58:11 PM »
You can't deny that certain Trump supporters are simply evil, Fenring.  And that has nothing to do with media reporting.

I was listening to an interview with Fox News reporter Megyn Kelly on NPR this afternoon.  Did you know she received death threats for confronting Trump about his remarks about women during the Republican debates?  You know, the questions that had him talking about her bleeding from "wherever."  She said her children would be lookg out the window in fear of anyone coming up the driveway.

And remember what happened to David French, when some low-life scum made a picture of his daughter in a gas chamber with Trump at the switch.  Along with the death threats, one that was truly serious.  All because he didn't support Trump in a conservative magazine.

Or how about this supposed Trump supporter?  (Warning: this guy's mouth should be washed out with a Brillo pad.  Right after they wrap him in a straight jacket.)

I have heard about this from the Alt-Right well before this election, well before Trump was a candidate.  This is how some members of the Alt-Right are.  And Stephen Bannon has been pandering to the Alt-Right for years now.

Do you think these people have gone away, now that their candidate has won?  No, they feel empowered.  They feel like they won.  They feel like they now can do anything.

I don't know if Trump inspires violence and idiots like these.  But they do use him as an excuse.  They are, for some reason, attracted to him.  They defend him.  They expect (wrongly, I believe and pray) that he supports them and will help them achieve the power they deserve.

There doesn't need to be any false flags now.  These idiots have shown their colors well before Trump won.  The only question is, how much further are they going to go?

If you have any doubt, go onto Reddit and badmouth Trump for a while.  They're still out there.  And they aren't afraid to express themselves.

Just make sure you also own a gun. :(
« Last Edit: November 16, 2016, 12:00:31 AM by Wayward Son »

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #96 on: November 16, 2016, 12:12:22 AM »
There is a difference between having no need for a "false flag" and there being "no false flag" type activities going on. Both sides have a lot to gain, for different reasons, by going about doing that stuff right now in particular. Although the (smart) racists would probably prefer to keep their heads down until Trump officially takes office. So in that respect, yes plenty of idiots acting out. But it's just as likely to be a "false flag" from some lefties out on a lark trying to make Trump voters look stupid.

Fenring

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #97 on: November 16, 2016, 12:12:52 AM »
I don't know if Trump inspires violence and idiots like these.  But they do use him as an excuse.

This is a reasonable comment, and I think it ought to have been the centerpiece of your post. This really is a problem, but the problem isn't Trump. Is that there are scores of whackos out there looking for justification to scream and shout at whomever they think is a good target. The noteworthy thing here is that it isn't limited to Trump supporters, but it appears on the other side of the fence as well when certain people have ended up on the wrong side of liberal activists. The whole Twitter-brigade and death threats thing happens in every quarter now, whether it's about gay marriage, gamergate, Donald Trump, BLM, you name it. Death threats are the new normal for any controversial public stance. I would agree wholeheartedly that this is a problem, and that something is awry when so many people are looking to express themselves in this way.

And yet for all that while you may be interested to note the causes around which these whackos flock, at the same time the those causes didn't create those people. You might rightly sneer when a politician courts such people, yet also remember that both political parties are looking for their respective whackos, probably in equal measure.

Gaoics79

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #98 on: November 16, 2016, 05:35:27 AM »
Quote
Congratulations, 8 years of abusing a term for political expediency in the interest of shaming the dissenting view, rather than opening dialogues with them, has given rise to "Donald Trump and the Alt-Right."

This is a pretty important point.

Regarding Trump's "racism", I learned long ago in this election campaign not to bother defending that guy whole hog, because he's always going to disappoint you. Every time you become convinced that he didn't mean something some way or there's more nuance to something he said, he goes ahead and jams the rest of his foot in his mouth.

So yes, he's said racist and sexist things. (although not misogynist, for what it's worth)

That said, alot of the most egregious things people attribute to him are not in fact things he said, or are distortions of things he said. Trump says alot of nasty *censored*, and people say alot of nasty *censored* about him that isn't true, or isn't fair. If you filter out the lies and distortions about Trump, he still comes across as an *censored* at a bare minimum, and certainly a sexist pig with some borderline racist views. But he's not a "misogynist" (there's been zero evidence for that), nor is it proven in my mind that he's a KKK racist as many seem convinced.

One thing I've become convinced of (and this goes back to TheDeamon's point) is that we're getting to a point where it just doesn't matter what a Republican politician says - he / she is going to get called racist / sexist / misogynist invariably. The only difference from one Republican politician and another is 1) How frequently this label gets applied and 2) How high on the food chain the comments are going to come from. In Trump's case, of course we reached a maximal level of frequency and saw the comments arising from headline sources, rather than lower level surrogates. But I expect in the future it's going to be more and more the norm for these kinds of labels to get thrown around. Trump, if anything, has accelerated this process. Now that news commentators and higher level surrogates have gotten a taste for it, expect more of the same in the future. The Republicans could nominate Ghandi reincarnated as their next candidate, and you can bet he'll be called a racist, and a misogynist, and a sexist, and whatever else you like.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #99 on: November 16, 2016, 05:54:20 AM »
The media does this ALL the time and my prediction is that they will keep doing it, and with impunity.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/protester-tackled-during-anti-trump-072418790.html

"A protester at an anti-Trump rally was shoved to the ground in the middle of a speech."

So we get one sentence and then a video showing a man barrelling down the stairs and slamming into an anti-Trump protestor in a cowardly attack from behind. The man is promptly attacked but thankfully the people attacking him are quickly stopped. Police escort the violent Trump supporter out to calls of, "Shame! Shame! Shame!"  Then you get all the comments with many saying that people have the right to assemble peacefully and Trump supporters want to instigate violence at peaceful rallies. This type of "story" is just thrown out there and left as it is with no correction from the mainstream media that put it out there. So if you just look at that story and never look back and never dig deeper you get a certain impression of what's going on.

An impression, it turns out, that isn't accurate at all.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/tamerragriffin/ohio-state-university-student-tackles-protester?utm_term=.olGbaLPx8R#.tk51VJzdg4

"Adams can be seen standing on a set of stairs in the video saying into a megaphone, “We don’t have to compromise,” when another man, later identified by police as 24-year-old Shane Michael Stanton, runs up behind him and tackles him to the ground.

The video captures Stanton clearly shouting “You idiot” just before leaping at Adams, 25.

“Initially, with the information available, Tim felt it was important that white nationalists not be further emboldened by this action and decided to pursue criminal charges in the hopes that it might play some role in protecting movement activists from similar or potentially worse harm in the future,” protest organizers said."

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But then they found out what really happened.

"On Tuesday, Adams’ group, the Columbus chapter of the International Socialist Organization, said he is seeking to have the charges dropped since learning that Stanton was not a Trump supporter and not politically motivated. A friend of Stanton’s wrote on Facebook that he was a Hillary Clinton supporter, and his actions may have been related to a disability. His mother told the Lantern he has Asperger syndrome."

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And that's the crucial detail nobody bothered to check before putting the story out. In fact it is still out with the video and that one sentence explanation on mainstream media sites like yahoo and hasn't been corrected even though the information to do so is already out. You can't really call this a false flag although the effect is the same. It's just the hit and run media completely lying again. And again. And again.