Author Topic: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018  (Read 29686 times)

Greg Davidson

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Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« on: November 09, 2016, 10:01:41 AM »
I have to rush now (I'll get the numbers later), but let's baseline the unemployment rate, stock market, annual GDP growth, and budget deficit as of Monday and then predict where we will be in October 2018.

I'd like to hear, particularly from Trump supporters, where you think we will be if our new President-elect is successful by your standards. Feel free to include other measures, such as the number of illegal immigrants in the country, the number of people killed in terrorist attacks on American soil, or any other metrics that you believe would show how President Trump has been successful in the first 21 months in office.

D.W.

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2016, 10:03:44 AM »
You should make a new "time capsule" topic for this.

Grant

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2016, 10:11:18 AM »
I would think that y'all would learn that your predictions at this point,  all of our predictions, are about a worthless as duct tape toilet paper.  There is absolutely no telling what is going to happen, and if you can't wrap your heads around that, then you're going to fall into the same mistakes.  It's time to achieve flow.  Just let it go and wait and watch.   

Grant

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2016, 10:20:40 AM »

I'd like to hear, particularly from Trump supporters, where you think we will be if our new President-elect is successful by your standards. Feel free to include other measures, such as the number of illegal immigrants in the country, the number of people killed in terrorist attacks on American soil, or any other metrics that you believe would show how President Trump has been successful in the first 21 months in office.

This is just a WAG, but I imagine that Trump supporters will measure the success of the Trump Presidency on the amount of joy and pleasure they derive during said Presidency.  The majority of their pleasure will probably be derived from how upset liberals and democrats become, most importantly the ones on TV and the internet.  In this way, the electing of Trump is the greatest troll move in the history of the United States.  Immigration, the economy, foreign policy, terrorism are all meaningless as long as liberals and the establishment are squealing under a Trump boot.   

Oh yeah, first step will be the dismantling of Obamacare.  Sayonara.  Pray they replace it with something better.

D.W.

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2016, 10:20:59 AM »
I thought, like actual time capsules, it was accepted this was for entertainment rather than education.  :P

D.W.

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2016, 10:23:42 AM »
Grant, what's a WAG?  An acronym I assume but can't place it.  Maybe just sleep deprivation making me slow.

Grant

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2016, 10:27:24 AM »
Grant, what's a WAG?  An acronym I assume but can't place it.  Maybe just sleep deprivation making me slow.

Wild Ass Guess. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2016, 10:27:38 AM »
Grant, what's a WAG?  An acronym I assume but can't place it.  Maybe just sleep deprivation making me slow.

Wild (Synonym for Donkey) Guess
Also closely related to: SWAG

which would be a
Scientific Wild (Synonym for Donkey) Guess

D.W.

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2016, 10:28:46 AM »
Thanks, new one on me.

Grant

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2016, 10:32:43 AM »
I thought, like actual time capsules, it was accepted this was for entertainment rather than education.  :P

I dunno.  I have a feeling this is Greg's way of trying to corner Trump supporters three years from now and show them that none of what they wanted occurred or that things got worse.  They won't care as long as they've been able to feast on the tears of Lindsay Lohan, Raven Symone, and millions of college snowflakes huddled in safe spaces. 

LetterRip

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #10 on: November 09, 2016, 10:41:19 AM »
Grant,

that is probably a tiny percentage of the electorate for which that is true.  Most were voting for rational reasons rather than being jerks.  There are a lot of people who really think he is going to do amazing things for the economy and bring back manufacturing jobs.  There are lots who think he will get rid of millions of illegal immigrants so that those jobs are available for Americans.  There are lots who expect he will nominate justices who will overturn RvW.  There are lots who expect he will nominate justices who will staunchly support the 2A.  There are many who believe he will block any further muslim immigration and deport or otherwise detain or harrass those who have already immigrated.

If he fails on those promises (which I expect he will on nearly all of them) they will be bitterly disappointed.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #11 on: November 09, 2016, 10:48:07 AM »
I think predictions will be hard to make until after the panic settles down now that Trump has won the election. I think some people are currently only starting to freak out as it is.

I think the panic response is going to be worse than most of his presidency will be. Keep in mind, I didn't vote for him, so I'm not a Trump supporter, although I do lean strongly towards Republican in general. Also remember: if you go back and look, my position all along was that he was a terrible candidate, and his being a terrible candidate was (IMO) his most likely path to victory... So, here we are.

So long as "the panic" doesn't wreck the (global) economy by itself before Trump ever does anything, I think 2 years from now may actually surprise most people. Some people will be worse off, but I think most people will be doing better than they are today in almost every meaningful way.

I also think there will be plenty of Democrats and Republicans alike who will absolutely HATE Donald Trump by that point. Which should make things highly amusing.

Of course, this presumes he doesn't try to not be President. Or that he doesn't actually trigger Armageddon, which can't be entirely ruled out. I wasn't worried about Bush(43) doing that, but I know plenty of others were. I do however, have concerns about Trump this time. Although while I think those concerns are way overblown, that they even exist is concerning in its own way.

Grant

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #12 on: November 09, 2016, 11:00:04 AM »
LR,

You and I consistently disagree on these subjects because you tend to see all human action as rational in some shape or form, or try to break it down as rational.  I tend to believe that 80 to 90 percent of all human action is irrational, despite perhaps having a rational basis somewhere.  I think this is because you are a highly rational person yourself.

I believe there were several Republican candidates who supported the 2A, promised to nominate pro 2A judges, and would slow down or halt immigration.  The only thing that seemed to really put Trump apart was his trade protectionism.  But Trump supporters followed him not because of his policies, in my opinion, but because of what he stood for.  He was a big middle finger to all American politics, "the establishment", and "the elite".  It was about peasants with pitchforks and torches.  The motivation was emotional, not rational.  Rationally, I still don't believe how anyone could have believed that Trump would win the Presidency, on Nov 8 much less in Oct of 2015.  I doubt the majority of them were motivated by any of the reasons you give, but were primarily motivated due to their dislike of Clinton, their dislike of President Obama, and their dislike of liberal and conservative politics in general.  There may be rational causes behind this motivation, but it is primarily an emotional reaction rather than a rational one. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #13 on: November 09, 2016, 11:00:57 AM »
I have to rush now (I'll get the numbers later), but let's baseline the unemployment rate, stock market, annual GDP growth, and budget deficit as of Monday and then predict where we will be in October 2018.

Not even going to guess on the Budget. However, so long as the economy doesn't crash before Trump even enters office, and nothing completely stupid happens on the foreign relations/trade side of things, I think 3%/year GDP growth in the U.S. is going to be an overly cautious estimate.

All that money that corporations have been hording since 2008 is likely to be unleashed once they "get a feel" for what a Donald Trump presidency is going to operate like. In the mean time, the uncertainty in the markets is likely to hammer things pretty hard.

LetterRip

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #14 on: November 09, 2016, 11:10:10 AM »
Quote
I believe there were several Republican candidates who supported the 2A, promised to nominate pro 2A judges, and would slow down or halt immigration.

The votes that got Trump nominated were the 'tear up the unfair trade agreements' - which none of the other candidates proposed - and which lines up quite well with the states he won that normally tend towards Democrats.  Also none of the other Republican candidates really proposed anything on immigration.  He didn't get the 2A votes of religious votes until after he got the nomination and started making promises about judges.

If the other candidates had won, Clinton probably would have had a better chance and might well have won since the other Republican candidates likely wouldn't have got the blue collar manufacturing vote.

D.W.

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #15 on: November 09, 2016, 11:10:45 AM »
Quote
He was a big middle finger to all American politics, "the establishment", and "the elite".  It was about peasants with pitchforks and torches.  The motivation was emotional, not rational. 
And they aren't wrong.  "The elites" think even less of them now.  I was expecting the death rattle of the Republican party this season.  Instead we usher in a new age of culture war and hyper-partisanship.  One thing's for sure, rural America will not be underestimated again.  I think people (liberals/Democrats) have a tendency of forgetting that we are small islands of blue in a sea of red geographically.  We live 2-3 years out of 4 in our bubble.  (if not all 4 years)

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #16 on: November 09, 2016, 11:38:46 AM »
One thing I expect is that inflation will go up, primarily because cheap goods from overseas will be impeded by re-negotiation of trade agreements.

There will be a small boom in manufacturing as the result of this and from relaxation of environmental codes.  This will not result in a dip in unemployment, though, for the reason explained above.  (Although Trump will declare that it did.)

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #17 on: November 09, 2016, 11:42:56 AM »
1. FOIA requests will have their backlog start to get cleared out as the slow walking of the Obama administration is replaced by a more transparent Trump Presidency eager to expose the embarrassments Obama was trying to hide.

2. Obamacare gets repealed. The system, if there is one, that replaces it won't be much better either and a lot of people will still be hard up to afford health care.

3. Gun sales start to level off or maybe even decrease instead of the massive spike we've seen under Obama.

4. Deportations increase significantly starting with criminal aliens and Trump plays hard ball to make their home countries take them back for instance by restricting visas if the countries continue to refuse. After the criminal aliens are targeted then Trump might go after the illegals who didn't show up for their court dates. There will be the beginnings of a Trump Wall to look at within nine months.

Trump will tax remittances to pay for the wall. A modest 5% tax would be plenty enough to take care of it over four to eight years. If the peso continues to stay low against the dollar the people receiving the remittances in Mexico will actually get more money than they did under Obama because the exchange rate favors them, at least until the worker sending the money gets deported. Hopefully the guest worker program can be expanded to cover most of these workers so they can work here legally but get a background check to evaluate if they are dangerous or not and they will of course be asked to leave if they can't find legal work. They won't be entitled to any benefits and if pregnant they will have to return to their home country to have their child.

Trump may work on doing something about birthright citizenship like trying to get a Supreme Court decision on it or using the bully pulpit to ask for a Constitutional Amendment though I doubt an Amendment would pass, but at least going through the process and failing would mean that as a country we have officially given due thought to the matter and decided to allow birthright citizenship to stand.

5. This one may be wishful thinking but there is a chance that perhaps the Fed will get audited, certainly a greater chance under Trump than there would have been under Clinton. I expect the Fed may raise interest rates before Trump takes office to screw Trump over on the economy as an act of last defiance.

6. An agreement is reached with Russia allowing Assad to stay in power. The rebels in Syria are betrayed by America the way Bush betrayed the Kurds but that's not so bad this time since the rebels are in cahoots with ISIS and al Qaeda anyway. ISIS in Syria is all but gone within a year, maybe two, and ISIS loses in Iraq as well but to fair to Obama that's already in progress and well under way.

7. Muslim immigration to America is limited but as Syria regains some semblance of normalcy there are fewer Muslim refugees who need to leave anyway and America helps the ones from there and other Muslim countries resettle in safe zones in Muslim countries which helps more refugees at less cost and poses no danger at all to any Americans.

8. The national debt explodes and Trump keeps pace with the levels of spending Obama enjoyed but Trump has more concrete things to show for it, literally, as he actually does make good on his promise to improve America's infrastructure.

9. We see something of a "peace dividend" as Trump makes NATO and our Asian allies pay more of our military costs but those savings are spent on the military. We'll probably actually spend a lot more on the military but Trump will make our allies bear more of those costs or just pull out some of our military defending them and save money that way.

10. I'm not going to make a prediction on the economy. It would be nice if his policies work and we really do experience 3-4% growth rates but that's probably overly optimistic.

11. One area where I disagree with Trump is on pollution controls and I fear he will gut some of Obama's efforts working with the EPA to limit pollution though I also disagree with Obama targeting carbon emissions and believe we should just concentrate on the hard stuff like mercury, dioxins, sulfur and those types of pollutants. Most likely reducing those pollutants would also reduce carbon emissions anyway but going after carbon while not targeting the others is just ridiculous. Overall though Trump is expected to favor business over the environment and I just wish it weren't so. I completely disagree with businesses externalizing the costs of pollution. Of course the acceptable levels of pollution allowed are always much higher than what is safe and are based on what is cost effective for profitability instead taking into account the people who will suffer from asthma, cancer, and other ailments.

Many of these are just Trump making good on his promises. They have observable metrics and we'll be able to tell for certain if they were met or not. As I said with Obama, results matter.

rightleft22

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #18 on: November 09, 2016, 11:46:13 AM »
Can no longer deny the Paradigm shift in the way we communicate with each other (though we don’t yet understand it) and what is considered truth – media no longer reliable part of the democratic process…  We distrust the media except for the social media we trust….

Right to privacy is gone, hacking is ok… Character does not matter… The ends justify the means.
“Saying it Like it is” means it must be the truth becomes the new politically correctness

Trumps base turns on him when he can't deliver jobs resulting in an increase in violence in America
Government becomes really big and America falls further into debt
Clean energy momentum stalls leaving America behind the rest of the world
The rich become richer.

End of Globalization and return to Nationalism leading to more conflicts (trend trump represents)
A loss of America influence and respect
The next generation Isis becomes stronger and even more horrendous
Russia re-establish control of Eastern Europe – Nato loses Turkey – possible end of nato and traditional alliances

The end of Family values politics (wishful thinking)
The Evangelical’s conservatives have shown themselves as being self-serving hypocrites not that that will change anything however the label Christian is a joke.

Americans will look back on this moment with shame.

scifibum

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #19 on: November 09, 2016, 12:26:41 PM »
Accelerating growth in national deficit. 

That's about all I feel confident about.

LetterRip

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2016, 12:41:45 PM »
These are my concerns, not necessarily what I expect to come to pass (though many of them I do expect)

1) TPP will be rejected, China will get RCEP passed - this will dramatically diminish US trade status and dramatically enhance China's trading status and exports, US trading status will be reduced, and likely lose a lot of relevancy.

2) US will lose fiat currency status - it will be replaced with either a basket of currency or possibly 1-3 currencies (Chinese, Russian, and Euro).

3) There will be a modest uptick in deportations - but it will have zero impact since there will be even less interest in going after employers, and thus there will be a net loss of jobs to illegal immigrants

4) Manufacturing will further decline due to continuing automation the number of jobs 'returned' to the US via trade agreements will be token and ultimately meaningless in the tide of jobs eliminated due to robotics and AI

5) There is a possibility of major creative and intellectual industries (software, entertainment, portable electronics design, etc.) that are the current backbone of the US economy will begin to leave the US, the people who provide the talent to these industries are overwhelmingly liberal on social policy and mostly liberal on economic policy - the would be readily welcomed into other countries and many now feel like strangers in their own country.

6) Massive uptick in military spending - deficit fueled.  Quite probably military adventurism in the middle east - likely Iran.  Maybe a 1% chance of the use of nuclear weapons.

7) Greatly increased terrorist attacks on the US.

8 | Massive tax cuts for the wealthy - probably an inheritance tax exemption.

9) US military hardware sales will collapse - countries will go for cheaper more reliable lower maintenance systems - exports were based on quid pro quo - we provide protection with the understanding that they buy mostly US hardware.  With that off the table, expect most US military hardware sales to go to zip.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 12:45:28 PM by LetterRip »

AI Wessex

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2016, 01:36:26 PM »
LR, your list, if those things come to pass, will hurt everyone in this country, but will hurt Trump's core demographic first and hardest.  I know why I voted against him, but I can't figure out why they voted for him.  I'm not sure that many of them did.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2016, 01:41:29 PM »
LR, your list, if those things come to pass, will hurt everyone in this country, but will hurt Trump's core demographic first and hardest.  I know why I voted against him, but I can't figure out why they voted for him.  I'm not sure that many of them did.

they were chiefly:
1) Voting against Hillary
2) Voting against "teh establishment"
3) Voting their anger against the current state of things in general.

But I'm sure a fair number of them were also voting single/multiple issues as well.

JoshCrow

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #23 on: November 09, 2016, 01:45:18 PM »
I'll predict we will have seen a recession of some kind, and I'm going to copyright #Trumpcession even though I don't necessarily think it will be Trump's fault. That's all I got.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #24 on: November 09, 2016, 01:51:54 PM »
I'll predict we will have seen a recession of some kind, and I'm going to copyright #Trumpcession even though I don't necessarily think it will be Trump's fault. That's all I got.

Provided Trump doesn't walk us out of trade agreements that we're benefiting from(and gain nothing from leaving), I think it's very possible that we're about to see some rapid economic growth. There's a reason I said there's a good chance that 3% annual growth may be overly conservative.

I think you'll find a lot of the underlying "economic weakness" that we've been experiencing for the past 8 years was because many corporations were afraid of outlaying significant amounts of cash to do something only for the Obama admin to turn around and do something to turn the entire project into a boondoggle for one reason or another, be it class warfare, environmental concerns, or some other favored Democratic platform plank item.

Trump's not likely to raise any such concerns on those fronts, once they actually figure out what Trump's actual governing policies and practices are. The big wild card in all this of course, is what Trump does in regards to foreign trade. Until they figure that part out, they're going to hold off even above and beyond what they had been doing.

The flip-side to all of that is: There will eventually be a "Trumpcession" as in keeping with his real-estate roots, that is the problem of overbuilding, and too much market exuberance,  it will eventually run itself out. But will likely take years to run its course.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 01:54:45 PM by TheDeamon »

LetterRip

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #25 on: November 09, 2016, 01:56:30 PM »
LR, your list, if those things come to pass, will hurt everyone in this country, but will hurt Trump's core demographic first and hardest.  I know why I voted against him, but I can't figure out why they voted for him.  I'm not sure that many of them did.

About 2/3 were single issue voters - 2A folks who wanted Supreme Court nominees that were 2A friendly; evangelicals who wanted RvW overturned; and blue collar workers who wanted jobs (and lacked the sophistication to understand that there isn't any path that can bring good paying factory jobs back); The remaining 1/3 were pure partisans and anti-Hillary - people who perceive Hillary as the anti-Christ (or not far from it).

Many lacked the sophistication (or often simply willfully blind) to for-see possible downsides, they only saw their hoped for upside.

JoshCrow

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2016, 02:02:22 PM »

Provided Trump doesn't walk us out of trade agreements that we're benefiting from(and gain nothing from leaving), I think it's very possible that we're about to see some rapid economic growth. There's a reason I said there's a good chance that 3% annual growth may be overly conservative.

I think you'll find a lot of the underlying "economic weakness" that we've been experiencing for the past 8 years was because many corporations were afraid of outlaying significant amounts of cash to do something only for the Obama admin to turn around and do something to turn the entire project into a boondoggle for one reason or another, be it class warfare, environmental concerns, or some other favored Democratic platform plank item.

Actually I think it will largely be a combination of two factors (neither of which I blame Trump for): 1) the declining ability to "innovate" (not for lack of trying, but rather facing diminishing returns of scientific inquiry) in an economy that has largely become dependent on innovation-driven growth during an unusual time when such growth was common. 2) Banks have learned nothing and will eat themselves again, and this time there will be no bailout. A wildcard would also be a major climate event.

LetterRip

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2016, 02:09:03 PM »
I think you'll find a lot of the underlying "economic weakness" that we've been experiencing for the past 8 years was because many corporations were afraid of outlaying significant amounts of cash to do something only for the Obama admin to turn around and do something to turn the entire project into a boondoggle for one reason or another, be it class warfare, environmental concerns, or some other favored Democratic platform plank item.

I guess I don't see the reasoning behind your supposition.  Corporations do capital expenditure timing, and they generally have to project strong consumer demand before doing outlays.  Basically they have to see a strong economy before they are willing to invest to serve demand of that strong economy.  Also most corporations have capacity well beyond current demand, so I guess I don't see which corporations might want or need to do capital expenditures and are somehow 'holding back' because of Obama.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2016, 02:15:10 PM »
Well, we'll find out in the next year. If the economy goes from "0 to 60" within months of Trump taking office, we know they were likely "holding back" (Although the Dems will claim other reasons, and credit the growth to Obama, naturally)

If the economy just keeps plodding along, we'll have our answer going the other way. If it nose-dives into the toilet, we have yet another one.

Edit to add: We could hope that Trump potentially does what JFK was alleged to have done upon entering office and pursues a comparable study "of ways to grow the economy" with a comparable answer as alleged by the tin foil hat crowd. If so, we may be seeing a lot of money going into two things:

1) Infrastructure reinvestment
2) Manned Space Exploration, with particular emphasis on space colonization.

Trump can appreciate the value of long-duration investments, it's a large part of his empire. Don't be surprised if he goes for some high cost/high risk options with potential pay-outs that may take decades to occur. Also pushing a hard core public/private space venture is one hell of a way to keep much of the US technology sector from leaving the country... And trigger further innovations and improvements in our daily lives if past performance is any indication.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2016, 02:20:53 PM by TheDeamon »

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2016, 02:20:59 PM »
Trump might also lower taxes on corporations that repatriate their money from abroad. Better to have them pay lower taxes on it than none at all.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2016, 02:23:11 PM »
Trump might also lower taxes on corporations that repatriate their money from abroad. Better to have them pay lower taxes on it than none at all.

This, paired with the addition I added in an edit above yours, are some big things that could change dynamics a little bit. Trump isn't beholden to social programs, and I don't think he cares about balanced budgets, and he's obviously unconcerned about running a deficit(see Trump bankruptcies),  we can hope he goes for hard core space sciences.

D.W.

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2016, 02:34:35 PM »
If Trump were to push aggressive colonization efforts of Mars &/or the moon, I think right this moment he would get a lot of volunteers and do much to improve his party's demographics for the next election.  :)

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2016, 06:29:40 PM »
Although it's not a prediction, it is something to consider when making them: Trump surrogate says "we're keeping a list" of those who didn't support Trump.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2016, 06:48:31 PM »
Although it's not a prediction, it is something to consider when making them: Trump surrogate says "we're keeping a list" of those who didn't support Trump.

Depending on larger context, it could be good or bad. Having the list, in and of itself, is not bad. It's the intentions as to what they're going to do with the list that might be. The problem is that the expression itself has been poisoned by well, people with rather poisonous intentions of their own building such lists.

As that one Reagan attribution goes. "Trust but verify." Anybody that has been overtly hostile to me in the past would sure as hell be going on a "trust, but verify" list for some time, and it's going to take awhile before I take any advice or information they give me at face value. Anybody who does differently is naive, and probably will get burned. Just because a person exists on a (mental) list of people not to trust either implicitly or explicitly doesn't mean I'm going to try to have "bad things" happen to them.

It just means I may not be inclined to do much to help them, unless it benefits me in some way to do so.

Greg Davidson

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2016, 08:19:19 PM »
I can hope for all the positives here, including many that cherry mentioned, and 3%-4% growth sounds great. The ability to increase the deficit with higher government spending can get that much growth or more, as it did with Reagan.  But I suspect that the deficit will increase dramatically based primarily on tax cuts on the 1%.

Tariffs will increase those Walmart prices, but also help domestic manufacturing a bit (and/or increase imports from non-Chinese countries unless we put a tariff on everything - and I anticipate there will be intrusive new government regulation determining exactly which imported content is Chinese, and do things made in China and then shipped to us with a different label from Vietnam actually count as Chinese). Rising inflation and pressure on entitlements will counter some of the deficit pressure, at a cost of having people on social security and other forms of government assistance be more stressed.

I expect that there will be tangible, actual evidence of the crimes that Hillary Clinton was accused of but never proven, but that evidence will about Donald Trump and members of his Administration.  I believe that President Trump will unintentionally reveal classified information (and significant information, not something like a Snowden news article). I believe that there will be a number of financial/graft indictments/convictions similar to under Reagan (or US Grant if you want to go that far back). And I believe that no one who expressed concern about Hillary Clinton with regard to classified information or corruption will spend 1/100th the amount of time an energy on those topics when they occur in a Trump Administration. But at this point, it doesn't matter - the positions were just tactics, and they worked.  My worries start at bigger risks than debating points.  The biggest risk, and I believe that this is a very small but finite possibility, is that President Trump loses control for about 30 minutes during a tense crisis and 100 million people are killed in a nuclear exchange.  Very unlikely, but the impact is very high. 

The second major risk is the effect on the world climate regime when the US pulls out. More heat means a more rapid transition faster, which leads to more conflict around the world.

The third major risk is a major economic crisis like 2008; not only will a Trump Administration not have a sense of how to handle it, but we still haven't fully recovered from the last one.  And in the aftermath of an economic slowdown, to deflect blame from the Trump Administration, I believe there is a strong risk that Trump will find some other target to demonize (he really was doing a protocols of the elders of zion thing with the last set of his ads).

Oddly enough, many of what people would consider to be my personal financial interests will be helped by a Trump election.  I'll probably save $20,000 per year in taxes, and after 1 day of Trump the stock price for the aerospace company I work for has gone up by $20.

Deficit spending will go up to just shy of $1T per year (fraudulently justified because of the "Obama deficits" that Obama inherited from Bush), and with a limited fraction of that being additional government spending

AI Wessex

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #35 on: November 10, 2016, 11:03:05 AM »
The stock market posted a huge gain yesterday and today looks like it's on its way to closing at a record high.  This is likely a reflection that Trump has promised to fulfill the Republican agenda of rolling back laws and regulations governing how big business operates and getting rid of consumer protections.  One wonders why Hillary was the one seen as too cozy with Wall Street...

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #36 on: November 10, 2016, 11:25:56 AM »
Although it's not a prediction, it is something to consider when making them: Trump surrogate says "we're keeping a list" of those who didn't support Trump.

Depending on larger context, it could be good or bad. Having the list, in and of itself, is not bad. It's the intentions as to what they're going to do with the list that might be. The problem is that the expression itself has been poisoned by well, people with rather poisonous intentions of their own building such lists.

As that one Reagan attribution goes. "Trust but verify." Anybody that has been overtly hostile to me in the past would sure as hell be going on a "trust, but verify" list for some time, and it's going to take awhile before I take any advice or information they give me at face value. Anybody who does differently is naive, and probably will get burned. Just because a person exists on a (mental) list of people not to trust either implicitly or explicitly doesn't mean I'm going to try to have "bad things" happen to them.

It just means I may not be inclined to do much to help them, unless it benefits me in some way to do so.

And this would be what a mature, sober, careful and thoughtful person, who tries not to hold grudges, would probably do with such a list.

Has Donald Trump done anything that might indicate that he is not such a person? ;) :(

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #37 on: November 10, 2016, 12:03:59 PM »
And this would be what a mature, sober, careful and thoughtful person, who tries not to hold grudges, would probably do with such a list.

Has Donald Trump done anything that might indicate that he is not such a person? ;) :(

Public or private persona? From what I've been hearing/seeing about Trump over the years, I'm given the impression they're often very different things on most fronts. He has a lot in common with P.T. Barnum in many respects, which in some ways, makes having him as President rather... Disconcerting.

However, those same traits tends to mean he's not going to pass up an opportunity that comes his way. He may continue to hold and carry the grudge, but if the person whom he's said grudge comes to him with a decent offer, he'll likely consider it rather than reject it outright, and if it passes muster, he'll accept it. Business is business, and a dollar is a dollar, regardless of whose hands it passed through to get to you. Trump seems to understand that, he's not going to miss any chance he can reasonably take advantage of, and a lot of times, that means demonstrating a whole hell of a lot of "showmanship."

Now, he's no longer constrained by the resources of his Real-Estate/Business Empire. He has the full faith and credit of the United States Government backing him, he just has to get Congress to fund whatever he wants to try to do...

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #38 on: November 10, 2016, 02:38:28 PM »
Quote
However, those same traits tends to mean he's not going to pass up an opportunity that comes his way. He may continue to hold and carry the grudge, but if the person whom he's said grudge comes to him with a decent offer, he'll likely consider it rather than reject it outright, and if it passes muster, he'll accept it. Business is business, and a dollar is a dollar, regardless of whose hands it passed through to get to you. Trump seems to understand that, he's not going to miss any chance he can reasonably take advantage of, and a lot of times, that means demonstrating a whole hell of a lot of "showmanship."

So if a good deal comes along, he won't pass it up just because the guy's on his list.  I would call that cold comfort for anyone on his list. :)

Because if they don't have a good deal for him, then what?

I just think back of the Donald's little feud with Rosie O'Donnell.  You know, the "fat pig."

And I've heard that Bill Maher, the comedian, said Donald was the son of an orangutan.   So Donald sued him.

Sure, he'd probably work with them if they could make him some money.  But since they didn't, it didn't stop him from going after them, and trying to hurt them rather than just letting it go.

So, even though his public vs private personas may be different, I still wouldn't want to be on his list.  Because his actions speak louder than either persona (if that's at all possible  :-\ ).
« Last Edit: November 10, 2016, 02:42:44 PM by Wayward Son »

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #39 on: November 10, 2016, 03:16:27 PM »
Al Wessex: "One wonders why Hillary was the one seen as too cozy with Wall Street..."

I heard it was because of all the money Wall Street paid out in legal political bribes, Hillary got 90% of it and Trump got only 10%. My figures could be way off though but that's kind of what's going around.

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #40 on: November 10, 2016, 03:29:10 PM »
Another thing--not a prediction, just a reporting--apparently Trump's transition team is considering Wisconsin Sheriff David Clarke and Joe Arpaio as the head of Homeland Security.  :o

Read the link to find out about these bozos if you aren't familiar with them already.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #41 on: November 10, 2016, 03:38:47 PM »
Arpaio is probably the best person for the job. None of the people Obama appointed to that position even wanted to secure the border. Of course the border will impossible to secure if the person in charge of securing it along with their boss doesn't want it secured in the first place. So the first most important step is to put someone in the position who actually wants to get the job done. He would also make a good head of ICE.

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2016, 03:47:40 PM »
This is what you consider "the best person for the job?"

Quote
Arpaio brags about running a “concentration camp” for his detainees and has a record of withholding basic medical care from prisoners and flouting sanitary standards. His office has reportedly ignored over 400 sex-crime cases, targeted Latino residents and neighborhoods, stalked Latina women and retaliated against those who criticized Arpaio.

In one case, members of Arpaio’s department staged a hoax assassination attempt against the sheriff to enhance his popularity, framing an innocent man in the process. Arpaio hired people with records of domestic violence and child sex crimes to work in his armed “posse” guarding schools in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre.

The sheriff also tapped birther conspiracy theorists to form a “cold case posse” to investigate the truth behind President Obama’s birth certificate, and unsurprisingly concluded that it was a fake.

Hell, why not tap David Duke for the job?  I'm sure he'll "get the job done," too.  ::)

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #43 on: November 10, 2016, 04:00:06 PM »
It's hard to believe most of the things liberals write about their enemy conservatives nowadays. One thing we do know is that big money influenced his election with radical leftist George Soros spending millions to successfully target Arpaio. It's only fitting that his devious schemes should completely backfire and result in Arpaio getting a massive promotion. Maybe he can finish what he started with Obama's birth certificate. I expect it's legit and that's what he'll find but as the old saying goes, "you don't always get what you expect but you do always get what you inspect". We also know that those against him don't even want immigration law enforced. That is just unacceptable and reduces their credibility to zero.

AI Wessex

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #44 on: November 10, 2016, 04:11:13 PM »
Al Wessex: "One wonders why Hillary was the one seen as too cozy with Wall Street..."

I heard it was because of all the money Wall Street paid out in legal political bribes, Hillary got 90% of it and Trump got only 10%. My figures could be way off though but that's kind of what's going around.
Cherry, stop for a second and think.  Which of Clinton or Trump would be more likely to roll back regulations that those companies have to obey?

Wayward Son

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #45 on: November 10, 2016, 04:19:12 PM »
Quote
Maybe he can finish what he started with Obama's birth certificate. I expect it's legit and that's what he'll find but as the old saying goes, "you don't always get what you expect but you do always get what you inspect".

Read the excerpt again, cherry.  He won't find that it's legit; he already found that it's a fake.

Amazing that he even supports a President that is covering up for Obama. :)

And most of the stuff quoted isn't from any leftist conspiracy.  It's from court cases, reporting from respectable journalists, or just plain his own words.  Don't try to hide the truth from yourself behind some imagined left-wing conspiracy.  This guy is a racist nut job.

And Trump is considering him for head of Homeland Security.  :o

Is this what we can expect for a Trump cabinet?  :'(

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #46 on: November 10, 2016, 04:57:16 PM »
"Which of Clinton or Trump would be more likely to roll back regulations that those companies have to obey?"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-09/victorious-donald-trump-is-the-devil-wall-street-doesn-t-know

"Trump said in August he’d issue a temporary moratorium on new regulations. (Would such a move halt rules on bank capital that haven’t taken effect?) He’s said he’ll repeal Dodd-Frank. (Does he plan to swap it for new regulations to keep banks from sliding into the Wild West?) He’s also said he’ll bring back the Glass-Steagall Act’s wall between commercial and investment banking. (Isn’t that a new regulation?)"

I agree with bringing back Glass-Steagall. If that's all Trump ever does it would be a huge improvement.

TheDeamon

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #47 on: November 10, 2016, 04:59:46 PM »
I'd personally love to see something done about "too big to fail" but we shall see.

cherrypoptart

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #48 on: November 10, 2016, 05:11:01 PM »
Trump and his supporters are also racist nut jobs so like I said it's hard to take these accusations seriously. Enforcing immigration law is in itself a racist act anyway so anyone who tries to do it is by definition going to have to be a racist. As far as "credible" journalists go I'm not buying that either. Probably the journalists put on the highest pedestal as far as credibility goes are those at NPR. I listen to them all the time and I notice that they try to put up a pretty good front but it's still just a front nonetheless.

http://www.alternet.org/story/155384/10_worst_things_arizona's_racist_sheriff_joe_arpaio_has_done

I looked up some of Arpaio's troubling behaviors and while they aren't good and it would be great if he could be nicer to people this is what it looks like when an area is under the gun because of illegal immigration. It's not pretty, but they are literally being overrun down there. Hopefully after the wall goes up and the border is secured when there aren't so many illegals we can treat the few who do manage to get across much more politely and we can also treat our own American citizens of Hispanic descent with the dignity they deserve.  It's just a very sad situation, like when you have Muslim terrorists infiltrated amongst good hearted law abiding Muslims and you can't tell which is which so end up being suspicious of them all. Once we finally get the situation back under control maybe we can go back to being a civilized country instead of a paranoid one where no one can trust anyone else because a lawless President has us all living in anarchy.

AI Wessex

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Re: Predictions for the Trump Administration as of October 2018
« Reply #49 on: November 10, 2016, 05:56:25 PM »
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It's just a very sad situation, like when you have Muslim terrorists infiltrated amongst good hearted law abiding Muslims and you can't tell which is which so end up being suspicious of them all.
I feel that way about redneck yahoos who wear their pistols so that everybody can see them.  Many of them are ass-holes waiting for a chance to shoot somebody, but I suppose some of them are good people, too.  If my memory is working, we haven't had a mass shooting in this country committed by completely non-citizens in quite a while.  According to this site there were about 40 or so shootings involving multiple victims in the last 30 days.  It's too tedious to look up the details for each one, but since I didn't hear about any of them on major news outlets (including FOX) I would guess that all or nearly all were committed by US citizens, and none by Muslims.  Feel free to dig into them and prove me wrong if you want.

Clean your own house.