27 cases of voter fraud detected, Laramie County, WY

[TheDeamon]

http://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/laramie-county-flags-cases-of-voter-registration-fraud/article_a406f828-d0a4-50e8-ba25-d54e872451c8.html

Speaks for itself, I think.

County Clerk Debra Lee says possibly 11 felons and 16 non-citizens registered on Nov. 8.

Lee says the potential fraud was discovered as her office was entering Election Day registrations into the statewide voter database. Because so many people turned out to register and vote on Nov. 8, Lee's office received an extension through Dec. 13 to finish processing those registrations.

[Kasandra]

Speaks for itself, I think.

Yes, but what does it say?

[TheDeamon]

11 felons (yawn), and 16 "non-citizens" registered and voted in Laramie county, at least from what their detection system came up with. Of course, it may be a false positive as they investigate further. But the interesting thing is the "16 non-citizen voters" in Laramie, Wyoming.

Because well, it's freaking Wyoming. If they actually did have 16 non-citizens vote, be they legal residents or not, then imagine what potentially happened in some other electoral districts. Where you know, you have illegal aliens running around with government issued photo identification.

[Pete at Home]

One possible scare approach is require thumbstamp for every vote, with no statute of limitation for felony voter fraud involving a thumbstamp.

[Kasandra]

Because well, it's freaking Wyoming. If they actually did have 16 non-citizens vote, be they legal residents or not, then imagine what potentially happened in some other electoral districts. Where you know, you have illegal aliens running around with government issued photo identification.

OK, I get it.  This is how we say with a straight face that millions of illegal immigrants voted for Hillary.  It only makes sense that if 16 people did it in Wyoming, it must be a vast left-wing conspiracy.

[TheDeamon]

OK, I get it.  This is how we say with a straight face that millions of illegal immigrants voted for Hillary.  It only makes sense that if 16 people did it in Wyoming, it must be a vast left-wing conspiracy.

Oh so, now we go from "We can't find evidence of it(voter fraud) happening" to "The evidence that is coming forward doesn't mean that voter fraud may be more common than some would like to think."

[Kasandra]

OK, I get it.  This is how we say with a straight face that millions of illegal immigrants voted for Hillary.  It only makes sense that if 16 people did it in Wyoming, it must be a vast left-wing conspiracy.

Oh so, now we go from "We can't find evidence of it(voter fraud) happening" to "The evidence that is coming forward doesn't mean that voter fraud may be more common than some would like to think."

300,000,000 people, 146,000,000 votes cast, and according to the article cited here, as many as 27 people people MAY have voted illegally.  The article doesn't actually say conclusively that EVEN ONE did. 

But let's do a little arithmetic and assume the worst possible case that they ALL did vote illegally.  That works out to 0.000018% of votes were illegally cast nationwide. 

Focusing just on Wyoming, where 255,000 votes were cast this rises to an alarming 0.01%. 

Since 0.01% is 555x LARGER than .000018, we should assume that the actual number of illegal votes cast was actually 555x larger than anything we actually know about, so for each rumored illegal vote attempt that you hear about 555 illegal votes were actually cast. 

That's how we know that millions of illegal votes were cast for Clinton and Trump actually won the popular vote among REAL Americans.

I don't think any more proof is really need that she tried to steal the election and Trump overcame her CORRUPT attempt.

[TheDeamon]

A 0.01% voter fraud rate(1 in 10,000), across 145 million votes nets 14,500 fraudulent votes. Certainly not decisive nationwide under normal circumstances. But I'm still inclined to think the real fraud rates are higher in New York and California, as Wyoming is a (weak) Voter ID state, unlike the other two.

Of course, I also said Trump's alleged number of "millions" were high. IIRC, I said it was probably in the hundreds of thousands at worst. Which only requires a 1 in 1,000 rate to clear the lower threshold. Still not very decisive, but something that does add up all the same.

[Pete at Home]

Because well, it's freaking Wyoming. If they actually did have 16 non-citizens vote, be they legal residents or not, then imagine what potentially happened in some other electoral districts. Where you know, you have illegal aliens running around with government issued photo identification.

OK, I get it.  This is how we say with a straight face that millions of illegal immigrants voted for Hillary.

We being you and Trump?
Afaik no one else here is saying the illegal vote was in the millions.  I find the assertion almost as absurd as alleging that Russia's exposure of DNC lies was dispositive.
 

[Kasandra]

And don't call me afaik, either.

[DJQuag]

Because well, it's freaking Wyoming. If they actually did have 16 non-citizens vote, be they legal residents or not, then imagine what potentially happened in some other electoral districts. Where you know, you have illegal aliens running around with government issued photo identification.

OK, I get it.  This is how we say with a straight face that millions of illegal immigrants voted for Hillary.

We being you and Trump?
Afaik no one else here is saying the illegal vote was in the millions.  I find the assertion almost as absurd as alleging that Russia's exposure of DNC lies was dispositive.
 

Look further, Pete. There were plenty of people who took that as gospel. They will go with anything he says; and some news/information outlets went along with it because all they care about are views and clicks.

But it is/was *not* just Trump spreading that meme.

[TheDeamon]

And don't call me afaik, either.

AFAIK is this guy also known as "As far as I know."

[TheDeamon]

We being you and Trump?
Afaik no one else here is saying the illegal vote was in the millions.  I find the assertion almost as absurd as alleging that Russia's exposure of DNC lies was dispositive.

Look further, Pete. There were plenty of people who took that as gospel. They will go with anything he says; and some news/information outlets went along with it because all they care about are views and clicks.

But it is/was *not* just Trump spreading that meme.

But it wasn't anyone on this board, we can pull the posts if you want. All of us were highly skeptical of his claim that "Millions voted illegally."

[Kasandra]

And don't call me afaik, either.

AFAIK is this guy also known as "As far as I know."

FWIW, I suspected that .

[TheDeamon]

And don't call me afaik, either.

AFAIK is this guy also known as "As far as I know."

FWIW, I suspected that .

I'll be sure to pass the message along to "Mr. For Whatever It's Worth" in the event I find him. 

[Kasandra]

   

FWIW, I suspected that .

I'll be sure to pass the message along to "Mr. For Whatever It's Worth" in the event I find him.

My mistake, I thought you was him.

[cherrypoptart]

Yes, I said that millions were obviously Trump hyperbole but I also think it's a whole lot more than what we're led to believe. How much more? There is no possible way of knowing. Maybe if the Democrats started losing elections because of voter fraud it would become more of an issue. I see it pointed out that these people were registered but we don't know if they actually voted or not. And nobody has any concerns about there being no way to find out if people illegally registered to vote actually did vote? The fact that we apparently can't find out after the fact pretty much proves the point that we have no idea how prevalent voter fraud is.

And if I remember correctly, the Democrats talked a big game about the integrity of our elections and how great they were and how we needed to respect the results and not try to delegitimize the winner... until they lost. Now all of a sudden our elections are totally rigged, influenced, hacked, and the winner is a puppet whose strings are pulled by Putin.

[Kasandra]

Yes, I said that millions were obviously Trump hyperbole but I also think it's a whole lot more than what we're led to believe. Maybe if the Democrats started losing elections because of voter fraud it would become more of an issue.

If I remember correctly, the Democrats talked about big game about the integrity of our elections and how great they were and how we needed to respect the results and not try to delegitimize the winner... until they lost. Now all of a sudden our elections are totally rigged, influenced, hacked, and the winner is a puppet whose strings are pulled by Putin.

Cherry, if you believed that people are inherently honest, would it be hypocritical if you became skeptical after you are mugged?

[cherrypoptart]

I would like to think I would admit my mistake.

Is that what you are saying?

The Democrats were wrong about the integrity of our elections?

That would be mighty big of you.

[Kasandra]

I'm only suggesting that when you have actual experiences you might become skeptical.  That's not the same thing as saying that because you think it's happening, it must be happening, and o-by-the-way it's only people who don't agree with me that are doing it.  To put it differently, just because you are someone who distorts facts to fit your opinions, I don't think that everyone does it.

[TheDrake]

We saw in Florida a lot of people getting purged from registration because they were felons, just because their name matched some list. I'm intrigued but skeptical of the government getting something right. I could also see this possibly happening from various "automatic" or similar registrations, although Wyoming doesn't have motor voter, so that's not happening. Felons regularly regain their right to vote, and so I have to wonder if they might be working from old lists. Regarding non-citizenship, voter registration requires sending in copies of ID by mail or showing them in person. It would be interesting who in the clerk's office processed the paperwork, and the manner in which the fraudulent documents passed their process, or if they were processed without the required documents.

[Pete at Home]

Yes, I said that millions were obviously Trump hyperbole but I also think it's a whole lot more than what we're led to believe. Maybe if the Democrats started losing elections because of voter fraud it would become more of an issue.

If I remember correctly, the Democrats talked about big game about the integrity of our elections and how great they were and how we needed to respect the results and not try to delegitimize the winner... until they lost. Now all of a sudden our elections are totally rigged, influenced, hacked, and the winner is a puppet whose strings are pulled by Putin.

Cherry, if you believed that people are inherently honest, would it be hypocritical if you became skeptical after you are mugged?

Someone --- you claim Putin --- hacked and exposed your party's election fraud. And you now claim you've been "mugged" and "lost faith" in the process -- because your party can't cheat and lie with impunity.  Isn't that "Chutzpah"?

[Pete at Home]

Because well, it's freaking Wyoming. If they actually did have 16 non-citizens vote, be they legal residents or not, then imagine what potentially happened in some other electoral districts. Where you know, you have illegal aliens running around with government issued photo identification.

OK, I get it.  This is how we say with a straight face that millions of illegal immigrants voted for Hillary.

We being you and Trump?
Afaik no one else here is saying the illegal vote was in the millions.  I find the assertion almost as absurd as alleging that Russia's exposure of DNC lies was dispositive.
 

Look further, Pete. There were plenty of people who took that as gospel. They will go with anything he says; and some news/information outlets went along with it because all they care about are views and clicks.

But it is/was *not* just Trump spreading that meme.

If you say so. Google the words Trump, literally, and seriously.

[cherrypoptart]

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/

"Hillary Clinton garnered more than 800,000 votes from noncitizens on Nov. 8, an approximation far short of President Trump’s estimate of up to 5 million illegal voters but supportive of his charges of fraud.

Political scientist Jesse Richman of Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, has worked with colleagues to produce groundbreaking research on noncitizen voting, and this week he posted a blog in response to Mr. Trump’s assertion.

Based on national polling by a consortium of universities, a report by Mr. Richman said 6.4 percent of the estimated 20 million adult noncitizens in the U.S. voted in November. He extrapolated that that percentage would have added 834,381 net votes for Mrs. Clinton, who received about 2.8 million more votes than Mr. Trump."

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have no idea if this is fake news or not but it's possible that it's true and that is one way to go about finding out about illegal votes is polling since there is very little else that can be done to detect it after the fact. I wonder how the polling was done. If they asked people if they were non-citizens and then asked them if they vote, why would a non-citizen lie in the affirmative about both? If anything, this survey would probably undercount the illegal votes. But 800,000 illegal votes is massive voter fraud by anyone's definition. If it's true.

[TheDrake]

According to the author of the study, Jesse Richman, the results are not being used correctly. First, it was based on an internet survey that had respondents clicking a citizen box. Internet surveys are notoriously poor, I'm baffled that this became the basis for a peer-reviewed article. Other problems include sample size.

That’s because his paper, “Do Non-Citizens Vote in US Elections?” which was published in the peer-reviewed journal <em>Electoral Studies</em>, has become a cornerstone of President Trump’s false claim that he would have “won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally.” This week White House press secretary Sean Spicer once again dragged the study to the forefront, noting that a study of the 2008 election (which he wrongly attributed to Pew Research) showed 14 percent of noncitizens are registered to vote.

That was Richman’s research, all right. The problem, says Richman, who identifies as a political moderate, is that the Trump administration’s interpretation of his report is totally off. “Trump and others have been misreading our research and exaggerating our results to make claims we don’t think our research supports,” Richman says. “I’m not sure why they continue to do it, but there’s not much I can do about that aside from set the record straight.”

article

Read the original paper

It is worth saying that this number is certainly not zero.

Even some of Richman’s detractors, such as Rick Hasen, author of the Election Law Blog, acknowledge that “noncitizen voting is a real, if relatively small, problem.”

[cherrypoptart]

"The problem, says Richman, who identifies as a political moderate, is that the Trump administration’s interpretation of his report is totally off. “Trump and others have been misreading our research and exaggerating our results to make claims we don’t think our research supports,” Richman says."

Well if he is saying that his claim is 800,000 non-citizen votes and Trump is totally off and exaggerating the numbers out to over 3,000,000 that's not much of a defense to the main point that there may still have been massive voter fraud. Even if it's anywhere close to that it's massive. I'd say 50,000 fraudulent votes is massive fraud. If it's getting down to 10,000 to 20,000 maybe that's not so massive but it's still a be a huge problem and if there were 10,000 fraudulent votes that means the media and Democrat claims that there isn't widespread voter fraud would be false. 10,000 fraudulent votes might not be massive but it would be widespread voter fraud at least in my book. The numbers we generally see thrown around is that voter fraud is only in the hundreds, max. I think the problem is way bigger than that but of course there isn't really any good way to prove it.

[TheDrake]

I consider it to be one of the many sources of error in an election. If optical voting machines are counting off by +/- 1000 votes, or 1000 voters were errantly eliminated from registration, or 1000 voters voted illegally (by citizenship, felony, wrong location, etc), I count those as equivalent sources of distortion. Others would amplify the illegal votes to be dozens or hundreds of times worse, but I don't see it that way.

There are potentially interesting indicators from the study that are worth following up with more research.

[TheDeamon]

Anther one that got press recently was Steve Bannon and Trump's youngest daughter as examples of how/where potential voter fraud could occur, and it's one I've mentioned before.

They're registered to vote in two different states. Of course the reason for that being so is simple enough. His daughter first voted while attending school in Pennsylvania, so she registered there and voted while attending as a student. She then moved back to New York upon finishing school, where she voted in the most recent election, which obviously means she had to register to vote in New York.

What she failed to do was notify the elections board in Pennsylvania that she was no longer a resident of the state, and should be removed from their voter rolls.

Bannon had a comparable example due to changing state residency in the past couple years. So for both of them, they had the means, and (somewhat) the opportunity to vote twice in this last election if they so desired. (As previously discussed, most states/counties won't remove a registered voter from their roll until they've failed to vote in a given number of general (federal) elections. Although newer methodologies are being employed to speed that process along. Such as an inter-state compact that spans some 20 states now where they share voter information to detect people who have moved/died which then triggers an attempt to contact the voter to confirm is was/wasn't them)

[cherrypoptart]

There is also the possibility of non-citizens voting and thinking it's fine because when they got their driver's license they were automatically registered to vote. If that was what the survey was trying to point out as a possibility, that could explain why the people didn't think it was anything to be ashamed of, being a non-citizen and voting, and so didn't mind reporting that they did it. The sample size seems pretty small though so I wouldn't make too big of a deal out of it yet. But we are told all the time about how immigrant levels are at very high levels now and that so and so percentage of people in America weren't born here and that's higher than it's been since we first started colonizing the place or whatever. That's probably exaggerated a little but the number of non-citizens in America is much higher now than in the relatively recent past, and if people are automatically registered to vote and then they get their voter registration card in the mail they may just think it's their civic duty to go out and vote, never even realizing how consternating that's going to be to Donald Trump.

Here are some numbers:

http://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/frequently-requested-statistics-immigrants-and-immigration-united-states

In 2014, around 47 percent of immigrants (20 million) were naturalized U.S. citizens. The remaining 53 percent (22.4 million) included lawful permanent residents, unauthorized immigrants, and legal residents on temporary visas (such as students and temporary workers).