Author Topic: Another one bites the Dust  (Read 10479 times)

TheDrake

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Another one bites the Dust
« on: March 13, 2018, 11:29:12 AM »
Tillerson traded for Pompeo.

I have mixed feelings about this move. On the one hand, I think Pompeo is far more qualified. He's been a member of the house, he's probably pretty knowledgeable about the international scene - at least more so than an oil executive. He's not as deeply connected to Russia and has been critical of them.

On the other hand, he seems more likely to view other nations as adversaries rather than partners or potential partners. He's on record wanting to get rid of Kim Jong Un, not just denuclearize. He loves black sites and torture.

He's a Trump man, through and through. America first by any means necessary. Not exactly the makeup for the top American diplomat, in my opinion.

Crunch

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #1 on: March 14, 2018, 08:50:31 AM »
What nation should America’s top diplomat put first?

TheDeamon

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2018, 09:40:48 AM »
What nation should America’s top diplomat put first?

Timbuktu  8)

I think he was going more for the "My country, right or wrong" type thing.

Or maybe he's trying to claim that he is some kind of psuedo-Nazi in that "America First" is to be taken in a similar context to how Nazi Germany viewed the agenda of the Aryan Nation.

Except there's nothing (meaningfully) racial or ethnic about it.

Unless you're wanting to grossly misconstrue things like Trumps (alleged) "Hellhole" comment and stated preference for immigrants from Norway. (IIRC)

Which was totally overblown in my book.

"Typical" immigrant from Haiti: 1) Little to no conversational ability in English. 2) Likely to be "doing well" to have equivalence to a high school education.

"Typical" immigrant from western/northern Europe: 1) Likely to have English as a 2nd/3rd(!)/4th(!) language 2) Likely to be college educated.

For a modern, technology based society and economy that predominately uses English(or failing that, Spanish--Which Haiti also fails at, because as a former French colony, they use a weird French/Creole blend) which of those two options would you consider employing?

But nope, the media instead focused on item #3 on the list. Haitians - Likely to be black. Norwegians - Likely to be white. Therefore, Trump "made another 'racist' comment."

...And I'd still like to meet the person who thinks Haiti is NOT a hellhole and is willing to go live there for a few years "as a local" rather than in some nice cozy resort/villa complex with manicured grounds and security team on site.

D.W.

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2018, 09:52:01 AM »
America first by any means necessary.

TheDrake

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2018, 11:00:16 AM »
The nature of a diplomat is diplomacy. Let me help you out, Crunch.

2. skill in handling affairs without arousing hostility : tact

As opposed to the Trump Way which is to increase hostility as a routine matter of course while pursuing his goals. America First in the sense of Trump is more like America Only, not first among many. A diplomat recognizes that one wants to treat other nations with respect and acknowledging their own needs. Not threatening countries that vote their conscience when you move your embassy to Jerusalem.

Aaargh! Agree with me at all times, or you will never see another dollar in mutually beneficial aid relationships!

rightleft22

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2018, 05:44:53 PM »
America first by any means necessary... as in the ends justify the means? might makes right?

TheDrake

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2018, 05:59:27 PM »
By any means necessary.

* Angering a close ally like Canada by threatening tariffs and then retract it "just kidding"
* Waterboarding as needed
* Complete indifference of impact on other countries
* Complete indifference to opinions of other countries
* Defining "winning" as increasing the margin of America's well being over other countries, rather than looking to improve everyone's situation by narrowing that margin and rising up together
* Insulting foreign leaders whenever they don't do exactly what you want at that particular moment
* Violation of international institutions and questioning their very existence, including WTO, UN, NATO

cherrypoptart

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2018, 06:29:20 PM »
"Unless you're wanting to grossly misconstrue things like Trumps (alleged) "Hellhole" comment and stated preference for immigrants from Norway. (IIRC)"

My fake news pet peeve about that is situation is that Trump also mentioned Asia as a place from where he wanted more immigrants but the media leaves that out because it doesn't fit the white supremacist narrative.

If we want more diversity in America it seems like we need more Asians since they are only about 7% of the American population whereas African Americans are about 12-13% and Hispanics are over 20%. So we need to bring in millions of Asians until they at least number as many as African Americans to make sure we are property diversified and every color of jelly bean is fairly represented in the bowl. That's one kind of interesting thing about some of the minorities who are screaming for more diversity is that they seem to mean only bringing in more people who look exactly like themselves.

Tillerson is a great guy but Trump seems to be going for the Reagan style crazy cowboy approach to diplomacy in which you have that crazy twinkle in your eye as you scare the hell out of everyone around you because they have no idea what you'll do next. Is it all just an act or are you really nutso? Yes it's dangerous but it can also get results. Maybe half the time good ones. If we're lucky.

Crunch

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2018, 06:40:36 PM »
The nature of a diplomat is diplomacy. Let me help you out, Crunch.

2. skill in handling affairs without arousing hostility : tact

As opposed to the Trump Way which is to increase hostility as a routine matter of course while pursuing his goals. America First in the sense of Trump is more like America Only, not first among many. A diplomat recognizes that one wants to treat other nations with respect and acknowledging their own needs. Not threatening countries that vote their conscience when you move your embassy to Jerusalem.

Aaargh! Agree with me at all times, or you will never see another dollar in mutually beneficial aid relationships!

Trump is America first, not “America Only”. Iit’s been a long time since we had that so it may seem like it’s the “only”. Using the power and influence of being a super power to entice countries to support our goals is not a bad thing - every other country is trying to do that and the United States has come out the worse for it after nearly 30 years of placating and lost respect.

Crunch

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #9 on: March 14, 2018, 06:46:24 PM »
America first by any means necessary... as in the ends justify the means? might makes right?
Might doesn’t make right but it does mean you get to have the biggest voice in deciding what’s right when you’re the most powerful national in the world. Don’t think for a second that Russia, China, Islamic states, etc won’t  grind us under their boot heels  should they get the chance.

I honestly don’t want to see a world without strong, and forceful, American leadership. The world is infinitely better with it.

Crunch

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #10 on: March 14, 2018, 06:52:23 PM »
By any means necessary.

* Angering a close ally like Canada by threatening tariffs and then retract it "just kidding"
* Waterboarding as needed
* Complete indifference of impact on other countries
* Complete indifference to opinions of other countries
* Defining "winning" as increasing the margin of America's well being over other countries, rather than looking to improve everyone's situation by narrowing that margin and rising up together
* Insulting foreign leaders whenever they don't do exactly what you want at that particular moment
* Violation of international institutions and questioning their very existence, including WTO, UN, NATO

*Tough negotiations sometimes requires tough tactics. Canada will get over it
*Waterboarding as needed, sure. But only as needed.
*Other countries are not our responsibility
*Their opinions are what’s best for them. When in conflict with our goal, indifference to them is the minimum.
*That is winning. Other countries are not our responsibility
*Tough negotiations sometimes requires tough tactics. They’ll be fine
*If those institutions don’t further US goals and interests, then their existence IS questionable

TheDrake

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2018, 07:21:11 PM »
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*Other countries are not our responsibility

That sounds like a pretty clear example of America Only - that every action taken in the world can be judged solely on whether it makes Americans better off. When an individual treats other individuals that way, they call that person a sociopath.

TheDeamon

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #12 on: March 14, 2018, 08:26:22 PM »
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*Other countries are not our responsibility

That sounds like a pretty clear example of America Only - that every action taken in the world can be judged solely on whether it makes Americans better off. When an individual treats other individuals that way, they call that person a sociopath.

Wait, what?

"Not our responsibility" is NOT the same thing "I don't give a flying *bleep* about them."

It just means that as we are not the "primary party" on the line for defending their interests, we're not going to put our resources at risk until it has been demonstrated that the people who ARE responsible for that item have exhausted their ("reasonable") options.

Otherwise, we're completely justified to ask "What's in it for us?" If they're asking us to get involved before that line has been reached.

Or do you seriously believe Trump is going to hold back disaster (rescue) assistance in the immediate aftermath of a major disaster "because 'America First!'"? (As that is the one clear case of "reasonable options" being "send all the help you can")

Crunch

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #13 on: March 15, 2018, 09:17:34 AM »
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*Other countries are not our responsibility

That sounds like a pretty clear example of America Only - that every action taken in the world can be judged solely on whether it makes Americans better off. When an individual treats other individuals that way, they call that person a sociopath.
When an individual acts in their own self interests, they call that person normal.

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #14 on: March 15, 2018, 09:40:13 AM »
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*Other countries are not our responsibility

That sounds like a pretty clear example of America Only - that every action taken in the world can be judged solely on whether it makes Americans better off. When an individual treats other individuals that way, they call that person a sociopath.

I'm just curious, which of these other countries make the benefit of the US their responsibility in their negotiations and dealings with us.  Or is this a policy that when American does it is sociopathic, but when someone else does it is okay?

TheDrake

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #15 on: March 15, 2018, 10:47:21 AM »
Some examples:

Using US soft power to encourage countries like Saudi Arabia to increase the rights of women. While not always successful, there is literally nothing in it for us. It is still a good thing to do, and what it means to be a leader in the world.

Using US military power via NATO in Bosnia to prevent thousands if not millions of deaths. Nothing in it for us, still a good thing to do.

Giving US economic aid helps make people less desperate in other countries, and provides clean drinking water saving lots of lives.

Now, I consider all of these things to be in our self-interest, they increase our standing and diplomatic support from other countries. They allow us to develop and guide international institutions - rules for all countries to follow. There is a reason that the UN is in New York. There is a reason that the US dollar is the major reserve currency. These things don't happen by accident. The WTO is the major mechanism for trying to protect intellectual property, before that it was unilateral threat of economic or even military force. Raising the living standards in other countries diverts millions of angry young men that could otherwise turn to extremism.

It's really more of a question of short-term interest narrowly construed vs long-term interest widely construed.

Other countries do, from time to time, take a stand for the American people that don't benefit them directly. One example would be refusing to extradite American citizens that would face the death penalty. Most foreign aid to the US comes in times of disaster, because when you are the richest country in the world there's not much Nigeria can do to improve American lives.

That's part of the responsibility of being a leading power. But even if the policy isn't right, the tone is important. A diplomatic tone rather than a belligerent one.

D.W.

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #16 on: March 15, 2018, 11:01:27 AM »
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Using US soft power to encourage countries like Saudi Arabia to increase the rights of women. While not always successful, there is literally nothing in it for us.
I could make a case on what's in it for us.  I expect you could as well.

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #17 on: March 15, 2018, 11:16:53 AM »
Some examples:

Are you responding to me?  Cause these are not examples of what I asked for, instances of other countries putting US needs in a priority place in negotiations with us, as this seems to be what you think we should do in reverse.

In fact, I'll go out on a limb, and say I don't think even European countries, let alone any others, see our needs as at all relevant to their negotiating position.  And that's literally the stance you are decrying when we take it.

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Using US soft power to encourage countries like Saudi Arabia to increase the rights of women. While not always successful, there is literally nothing in it for us. It is still a good thing to do, and what it means to be a leader in the world.

There's all kinds in that for us.  It makes our world safer, it liberalizes their country and their markets and it increases their needs for consumer goods.

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Using US military power via NATO in Bosnia to prevent thousands if not millions of deaths. Nothing in it for us, still a good thing to do.

Well except stabilizing a country, which is good for business, and eliminating the risk that it would spill over into Europe generally, which is a major commercial and strategic benefit to us.

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Giving US economic aid helps make people less desperate in other countries, and provides clean drinking water saving lots of lives.

And again is a humanitarian good, but not an event isolated from our self interest.  Stability in every third world country is a net good for our industry and safety.  In fact, the primary distinction in this area with Trump is that he wants this kind of aid more expressly tied to specific economic and policy goals.  You don't think Obama did the same?  Not aware of social causes he tied aid to?  Different goals, same soft push.

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It's really more of a question of short-term interest narrowly construed vs long-term interest widely construed.

It's more a "question" that you don't think Trump understands long term goals, when there's no evidence that he doesn't.  In fact, if you take him at his face, nothing you listed above is at risk, as they are all things that have potential net benefit, what is at risk is when those "potentials" aren't being realized.

A food program that brings stability - net good, one that supports a fascist dictator - not so much.

Stopping a war where an oppressive regime is slaughtering innocents - net good, stopping a war when an oppressed people are trying to overthrow a dictator - not so good.

Giving aid to a country like Saudi Arabia that results in real improvements for women - net good, giving them aid that lets them make superficial changes while diverting resources to hardliners that oppress women in other areas - not so good.

This critique of Trump's position is based on the simplistic view that all of X is good, therefore Trump is bad for stopping X.  All Trump has said is that providing X should be tied to seeing good Y, and if X is less than Y its time to rethink X. 

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Other countries do, from time to time, take a stand for the American people that don't benefit them directly. One example would be refusing to extradite American citizens that would face the death penalty. Most foreign aid to the US comes in times of disaster, because when you are the richest country in the world there's not much Nigeria can do to improve American lives.

Wow, they don't extradite Americans to third world murder capitals.  They also don't extradite them to America (hello Roman Polanski).

Now, since we were talking about this in context of trade, show me something relevant.  Is Europe acting in our interests when they impose massive fines disproportionately on US companies and create artificial barriers to US companies that they want their local companies to compete against?  What about their very recent efforts to impose new taxes on US IP companies, or the French case against Google and apple for "unfairness" to French App developers.  The net effect of these is to transfer 10's of billions of dollars from US companies to EU countries.  Would you support parallel US provisions?

Heck, one idea Trump announced he is thinking about with respect to China is to simply make their anti-competition laws reciprocal.  You know mandatory requirements of US partner majority control on all business ventures, tech transfers and other strict limits on how they can enter and interact in the US.  If we are the "aggressor" as you seem to think, this would be a toothless threat, yet its an existential threat to China's commerce.

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That's part of the responsibility of being a leading power. But even if the policy isn't right, the tone is important. A diplomatic tone rather than a belligerent one.

Why?  The diplomatic tone has been walked all over.  Is it your view that Putin is better controlled with a diplomatic tone?  Then why have we been so aggressive against Russia?

China is far more abusive, why so passive and "diplomatic"?

I'll flat out say it, Europeans are better diplomats and bureacrats, playing "diplomatic" is never going to be to our net advantage.  They constantly spin abusive trade practices into ways that people refuse to see.

TheDrake

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #18 on: March 15, 2018, 03:59:45 PM »
I just don't see these "terrible deals" all over the place. I don't have the skill to evaluate myself, beyond what I've already done elsewhere. I don't hear business leaders clamoring for better deals. I don't see evidence that WTO rules were better than not having them.

Your anecdotes, Seriati, make me wonder if the only thing that would seem fair to you is everybody adopting the rules that favor the US most. Labor laws? China is getting an advantage from lax ones. Europe is being protectionist by having stronger demands. Dumping? China is illegally subsidizing their industries. Europe is being protectionist when they block US agriculture backed by subsidies.

The French suit is a classic anti-trust action, not a trade deal. Apple and Google do have a duopoly in this area. Under US law, we'd see the same thing if there were only one of the two. Under our interpretation, as long as there are two then they aren't subject to such an approach. It's not really that much different than our own system that punished Apple, Google, Intel, and Adobe for "anti-poach" agreements that limited recruiting from each other and suppressed employee wages. The only difference is that the mechanism in our system is a class-action private lawsuit.

Business ownership, whether in India or China, is certainly complicated. Imagine what would happen if they hadn't had such a rule. Suddenly, large chunks of their economies would simply be bought up by the US. This is a compromise to allow Americans and American corporations to benefit from increased revenue without selling off their entire country. Over time, as buying parity increases, those rules can be removed. Which is part of what WTO is for, to migrate toward an equilibrium of truly fair trade and equality of opportunity in all countries.

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2018, 04:21:41 PM »
Well that's part of the trick, it's hard to see the specific deals or to see them in totality.  It's hard to classify a local rule as part of an international trade deal.  That's why we look to things like the total trade volume and the imbalance in trade.  Trump's reacting to the US having a trade deficit with everyone of its trade partners (except one I think).  That's not a result of chance, and it has real consequences for us - as well as them.

It's not about "fair" when you are talking about trade rules.  It's about your leverage and what you get.  Why do think it's "wrong" for America to put it's own interests first, when that's literally what every other country has already done?  Would you expect another country that say has a monopoly on a resource not to use it to get better trade deals on things they need?  Why is the US - unique - to you in not being permitted to seek deals that favor its own interests?

My ire with the French and the EU comes from reading dozens of cases and hundreds of articles on exploitive and punitive damages they've imposed on US companies.  They're no angels on using import bans to harm US goods on spurious grounds, and finding ways not to comply with WTO rulings they don't like.  The US response has generally been to let them get away with it, to our own detriment.

I'm completely baffled by people not seeing that things can be better than what they are, only viewing the possibility of worse and then treating it as the most likely result.  Trump is absolutely right that we have a huge trade advantage if we choose to exploit it.

TheDeamon

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2018, 04:52:09 PM »
There is a reason that the UN is in New York.

Diplomatic comminication intercepts anyone?

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There is a reason that the US dollar is the major reserve currency.

Uh, does anybody need it spelled out how that is in our national interests? There is a clear "What's in it for us?" Criteria on that one, it is a large part of why the EU created the Euro-Zone, in order to try to create a currency that could potentially compete directly against the US Dollar, something they could only do by combining their respective economies under a single unified currency.... Only that didn't entirely go to plan for them.

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These things don't happen by accident.
And the ones I didn't address were covered by others. And as pointed out, they all "served national interests."

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The WTO is the major mechanism for trying to protect intellectual property, before that it was unilateral threat of economic or even military force.

Which would make the establishment of the WTO something that "furthered a national interest" at the time of its creation. That isn't to say that organizations can drift away from their initially intended mission or purpose. Or that needs and circumstances couldn't change.

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Raising the living standards in other countries diverts millions of angry young men that could otherwise turn to extremism.

Not going to disagree with that, but there is a caveat there that doing so at the expense of creating an impoverished underclass in our own country which is in turn more susceptible to extremism is also not in our national interests.

In this regard, it isn't even a matter of "what's in it for us?" It becomes the maxim of first-responders and rescue organizations pretty much everywhere:

When conducting a rescue operation, ensure you are conducting it in such a manner that you minimize(not eliminate) the risk that you will need rescued as well.

Sometimes, you need to realize that going in to save someone from a particular circumstance is little more than a suicide mission and instead of 1 or 2 people getting killed, you could be looking at 3, 4, or even more people getting killed for the effort.

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It's really more of a question of short-term interest narrowly construed vs long-term interest widely construed.

It depends on how you choose to interpret "America First." You can treat it as "life-raft earth" where there is not going to be a rescue a'la Lord of the Flies. Or you can treat it as a "triage situation" where you realize you cannot save everyone, and killing yourself while trying to do so may actually result in more deaths, not fewer.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2018, 04:56:34 PM by TheDeamon »

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #21 on: March 15, 2018, 05:40:32 PM »
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Raising the living standards in other countries diverts millions of angry young men that could otherwise turn to extremism.

Not going to disagree with that, but there is a caveat there that doing so at the expense of creating an impoverished underclass in our own country which is in turn more susceptible to extremism is also not in our national interests.

That's a great point TheDeamon, but I wouldn't concede the prior point.  There's far more evidence that raising the living standards in certain countries funds millions of angry young men in their path to extremism than the inverse.

Greg Davidson

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #22 on: March 16, 2018, 10:20:03 AM »
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There's far more evidence that raising the living standards in certain countries funds millions of angry young men in their path to extremism than the inverse.

Can you provide that evidence? And remember, the plural of anecdote is not data.

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2018, 11:31:54 AM »
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There's far more evidence that raising the living standards in certain countries funds millions of angry young men in their path to extremism than the inverse.

Can you provide that evidence? And remember, the plural of anecdote is not data.

It's easy to find, literally anywhere if you look, but here's one source:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/15/news/economy/isis-recruit-characteristics/index.html

It's not like there's any mystery about Saudi wealth funding extremism either.

DonaldD

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2018, 01:21:54 PM »
 ???

The only data provided in that article is about North America, Australia and Europe - and it does not make any reference to improving living standards in those countries.

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #25 on: March 16, 2018, 01:40:54 PM »
Like I said it's easy to find if you bother to look.  You know what's hard to find?  Studies that claim poverty causes terrorism. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #26 on: March 16, 2018, 03:40:54 PM »
Like I said it's easy to find if you bother to look.  You know what's hard to find?  Studies that claim poverty causes terrorism.

Well, plenty of terrorists will use the existence of poverty as the justification for their actions, even if they weren't impoverished themselves.

But in the case of Islamic countries and "plenty of recruits" there is a casual relationship in play there, but in many cases that may have more to do with lack of education(which tends to track with poverty as well) being the major factor in play. In other words, they buy into the whole "become a terrorist" thing simply because they don't know better.

Of course, things "get weird" when you start looking specifically at terrorists in 1st world nations. Which that report seems to do. In which case education(or being "insanely smart," despite lacking such) is pretty much a prerequisite in order for the terrorist to be able to even function never mind stand a chance of "blending" long enough to carry out their objective.

Which means most of the "terrorists" actually being pointed at are actually rank-and-file foot-soldiers who rarely stray far from "home turf" for whatever organization their allegiance belongs. The one exception "historically" having been Israel(and "US occupied" Iraq/Afghanistan), although I'm not so sure that holds true even for them(Israel) at this point.

DonaldD

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #27 on: March 16, 2018, 04:39:25 PM »
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Like I said it's easy to find if you bother to look.  You know what's hard to find?  Studies that claim poverty causes terrorism.
It's easy to find, yet when challenged to show some evidence, you link to a complete non-sequitur?

That you thought the linked article was evidence of your point, just shows that at least some of the evidence you think is obvious it simply confirmation bias.

Greg Davidson

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2018, 06:03:22 PM »
Seriati,

I agree that a number of terrorists are disaffected young men drawn from a background that is non-poor, not-particularly-religious. What's the linkage to rising living standards? Is your premise that freezing living standards where they are now would reduce terrorism? I think an equally plausible hypothesis is that some of the terrorists emerge from a context where there is inadequate growth in living standards available to them. And I agree that some extremely wealthy Gulf State Muslims have been funding terrorism, but I believe that is in part to create a distraction from the gigantic wealth imbalance by redirecting the fury of the disaffected in another direction.

TheDeamon

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #29 on: March 17, 2018, 06:33:31 PM »
Seriati,

I agree that a number of terrorists are disaffected young men drawn from a background that is non-poor, not-particularly-religious. What's the linkage to rising living standards? Is your premise that freezing living standards where they are now would reduce terrorism? I think an equally plausible hypothesis is that some of the terrorists emerge from a context where there is inadequate growth in living standards available to them.


Not Seriati, but I'll bite with my own take on parts of it. First off, I don't see a "Freeze" in improving conditions being a good thing, exactly the opposite actually. That said, "the home-front matters" as well.

Most of your anarcho-communist/socialist types, as well as a number of other educated people who "turn terrorist" ultimately do so over and about what is now broadly lumped under "income inequality" when paired with "upward social mobility." Karl Marx is one of the earlier and better known advocates on that particular front. This would likewise apply for the Islamic side as well.

People become aware that a vast disparity in outcomes exists. Some of those people, over time, sometimes with "outside help" become increasingly enraged about "the unfairness of the system" until ultimately hitting the point that they begin the lash out. Usually it is the person getting pissed on that will do so first. However, more empathetic/sympathetic types as they continue to watch this going on and happening to others become very unhappy about the unfairness of it all(and/or the "smarter ones" will begin to wonder when it will be "their turn" for that bad/unfair thing to happen to them), and the trip around the descending vortex speeds up as the circles grow smaller.

Basically, it is a tangled freaking mess thousands of years in the making. The system was extremely unfair across the entire planet up until the 19th century, where certain groups(mostly white, Christian, Europeans/their colonial descendants) saw the playing field start to level out, but only for their group. As the 20th century came around and things progressed, particularly after the 1950's, things have been moving more quickly across the board for everyone, at least so long as you're in the right countries.

Except their starting point "once things became (more) fair" was not, and is not, particularly fair.

There are minorities who are pissed off because they've been trapped in generations of poverty. There are whites who are pissed off because they've also been trapped in generations of poverty, and affirmative action laws/programs often prevent them from getting "good jobs" or into the "good schools" to pursue said good jobs. This isn't even getting into the Middle-Class people who have been pissed off because they've been actively blocked due to one kind of affirmative action plan or another.

Or the whole matter of this whole "We're going to export work to foreign countries because it's more cost effective/competitive (and does 'a lot of social good by economically uplifting them')" so sorry, you cannot get a job here, because we just off-shored that job to India/China or sent that work down to Mexico.

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And I agree that some extremely wealthy Gulf State Muslims have been funding terrorism, but I believe that is in part to create a distraction from the gigantic wealth imbalance by redirecting the fury of the disaffected in another direction.

Oh that is certainly the case as well, "ignore the guy behind the curtain, pay attention to this nice little sideshow I have put on for you.... "

But I'm also left to remember that the 9/11 hijackers were largely middle class, several of them had at least some college. Those guys were hardly kids recruited out of an impoverished back-water hellhole of a village without electricity or running water.

TheDrake

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2018, 07:03:47 PM »
Both statements are true. International terrorists tend not to be impoverished, but the environment contributes to their success in recruiting and support.

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By directly providing electricity, healthcare and welfare services, governments improve the outside options for young people. Using soldiers to protect an NGO who is opening a new school is unglamorous work, but it may be the best way of crippling insurgents. (Insurgents know this, of course, which is why aid projects have been targeted so often in Iraq and Afghanistan.)

In the past, researchers such as Princeton University’s Alan Krueger have pointed out that the typical suicide bomber is better-educated than other members of their group. If suicide bombers are well-schooled, the argument goes, antipoverty programs won’t reduce terrorism.

Yet by looking at groups rather than just individuals, Berman’s book shows why the two are intertwined. Like Australian military expert David Kilcullen (who calls counterinsurgency ‘armed social work’), Berman argues that ‘social service provision creates the institutional base for most of the dangerous radical religious rebels’. Demolish that base, and you begin to unravel the organisation.


TheDeamon

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2018, 07:13:05 PM »
Both statements are true. International terrorists tend not to be impoverished, but the environment contributes to their success in recruiting and support.

Put another way:
Terrorists exist(and have an easy time recruiting) because poverty exists.
That their most dangerous recruits aren't impoverished goes back to the first point.

The more important thing to note is this:
Improving the standard and living of people in general improves the quality and length of life, and also tends to also reduce the overall rate of violence.

Your "flip-side" problem is that while the overall violence rate(domestic disputes anyone?) may go down, the scale of the violent incidents that do happen will tend to increase. Which is where we get to say hello to Mister Terrorist.

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #32 on: March 19, 2018, 05:31:45 PM »
Seriati,

I agree that a number of terrorists are disaffected young men drawn from a background that is non-poor, not-particularly-religious. What's the linkage to rising living standards?

Only that in a population, it's not the worse off that are most likely to become terrorists.  It seems to take a certain level of affluence to fund the "lifestyle."  That's not any kind of proof, but it certainly should lead to questions about whether additional funding would spark additional terrorism.  That said, I'm inclined to agree that there must be some point "x" past which raising living standards should reduce extremism, but I suspect its very colored by other factors.

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Is your premise that freezing living standards where they are now would reduce terrorism?

No.

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I think an equally plausible hypothesis is that some of the terrorists emerge from a context where there is inadequate growth in living standards available to them.

Based on what?  The evidence seems to suggest that terrorists generally are the ones who are the beneficiaries of the growth in living standards.  Maybe they have a form of survivor's guilt to work out.

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And I agree that some extremely wealthy Gulf State Muslims have been funding terrorism, but I believe that is in part to create a distraction from the gigantic wealth imbalance by redirecting the fury of the disaffected in another direction.

Okay, I agree with that.  The bigger impact thought is not the direct terrorist funding, it's the deliberate funding of educational extremism and propaganda.

My point is not to disclaim that poor living conditions don't have an impact, but to point out that the evidence doesn't show that its a direct impact (ie being poor =/ to increased likiehood of being a terrorist), rather that the situation is exploitable by grievance mongers with an interest in strife.  That's exactly why you see the incidence rise in those countries among those with increased access to education.  They are being taught that the situation is grossly unfair and that they are entitled/required to strike back.

Increasing funding -generally- isn't going to work, you'd have to increase it on a targeted basis to reduce the impact of the extremist propaganda.  Teach people that their lives are good, and they can be made better by their own efforts, rather than that their lives are horrible and it's someone else's fault and you could make a dent on terrorism.  Just give them more money and you won't (same way throwing money at a school system without making any changes doesn't magically turn it from failing to succeeding).

And DonaldD, I think you should conduct a basic level of research on a topic before you issue challenges.  I note you weren't bothered to verify the original assertion by TheDrake either.  Is that because it matched your world view?

Greg Davidson

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #33 on: March 21, 2018, 11:54:35 PM »
Seriati,

That is a clever article by the guy who went through tweets, and Facebook posts, and it does say something about that subset of terrorists in Europe who tweet and post on Facebook. I don't necessarily disagree with the demographic picture, but I also recognized that is probably a biased sample (assuming that not all terrorists are from Europe, on Facebook, and tweet, I suspect the remainder might have a lower economic standard). 


Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #34 on: March 22, 2018, 12:25:52 PM »
Honestly, Greg, I couldn't find any study that showed increased poverty increased terrorism risk on an individual basis.  There seems to be a link on an aggregate basis, but once you dig into it the aggregation the link reverses.  Did you find something different?  I don't get why a claim that doesn't seem to have any evidence is even being argued.  It's one of those "soft facts" that "everyone knows."

velcro

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #35 on: March 25, 2018, 06:57:46 PM »
Seriati wrote
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There's far more evidence that raising the living standards in certain countries funds millions of angry young men in their path to extremism than the inverse.

Could you please provide one actual source?  Or did you retract this claim due to lack of evidence and I missed it?

Greg Davidson

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #36 on: March 25, 2018, 09:29:53 PM »
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Honestly, Greg, I couldn't find any study that showed increased poverty increased terrorism risk on an individual basis.  There seems to be a link on an aggregate basis, but once you dig into it the aggregation the link reverses.  Did you find something different?  I don't get why a claim that doesn't seem to have any evidence is even being argued.  It's one of those "soft facts" that "everyone knows."
My education taught me to be skeptical of conventional wisdom regarding how the world works. Events in the world are often the results of complex systems (and sometimes random events). Our perception of the world is filtered by imperfect exposure to data (for example, we have all experienced vastly more stories and visual images of Muslims killing Muslims in the Middle East since the Iraq War than we have seen of Christians killing Christians in the Congo, even though in raw numbers there has been far more killing in the latter region). I believe that the Middle East/Congo disparity is primarily due to the fact that it is hard to get media to the Congo, and that there is much less familiarity among the US population with that region of Africa. 

And there is the intentional work of advocates for one side in an argument to make assertions that are false or misleading in order to bring about outcomes that they desire. There is a considerable industry in Islamophobia that we have discussed in the past.

With respect to the specific case we are discussing, I am truly uncertain about the relationship between changes in wealth levels and the propensity for terrorism. I am asking you to see data, Seriati, because to me the argument echoes a little bit of past colonialism (sort of a "give those damn savages a little civilization and they will cut our throats...").

That being said, it might be true that increases in wealth are correlated with an increase propensity to commit terrorist actions, and if there were compelling data, it would turn out that those old colonialists might have been right about this. But until I see compelling data I will remain skeptical.

D.W.

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #37 on: March 26, 2018, 10:32:52 AM »
Interesting topic!  Got to say, this was one of those things "I just knew".  Maybe it's a defense mechanism.  The world gets even more depressing if people turning radical has nothing at all to do with not having "better alternatives".  :(

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #38 on: March 26, 2018, 03:20:36 PM »
Seriati wrote
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There's far more evidence that raising the living standards in certain countries funds millions of angry young men in their path to extremism than the inverse.

Could you please provide one actual source?

I can.  I'm disappointed that I have to.  To me, it  means that even though you have apparently have a strong opinion on the topic, you're incapable of verifying basic information, or not remotely knowledgeable on the topic.  Why do you have such a strong opinion, or really any opinion?

So here's a link to a study on the topic, though I have to admit the charts are dense even for me.  This one's good cause it summarizes some of the other research and gives you references.

https://krueger.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/akrueger/files/terrorism4.pdf

Here's a later opinion piece that I'm mostly citing for color on the author's place in the field.  https://democracyjournal.org/arguments/alan-krueger-and-the-economics-of-terrorism/

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Or did you retract this claim due to lack of evidence and I missed it?

Why would I retract a true statement that hasn't been refuted? 

Now did I miss where you, or any else, put forward support on the original claim? 

DonaldD

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #39 on: March 26, 2018, 04:42:56 PM »
Which part of that paper supports your position, Seriati?

Seriati

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #40 on: March 26, 2018, 04:59:30 PM »
How about all the parts in that paper and in the rest of the scholarship that flat out state that the average terrorist is not from an impoverished background, and that repression, not poverty is the factor that is actually linked to increased probability of terrorism.  Are you really just complaining because you want me to find a quote that says putting in more money will increase terrorism?  The entire thrust of the argument you are defending - that poverty causes terrorism - is untrue, and your complaint is that you think I'm not being precise?

DonaldD

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Re: Another one bites the Dust
« Reply #41 on: March 26, 2018, 05:23:13 PM »
But all that is completely different from your claim that
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There's far more evidence that raising the living standards in certain countries funds millions of angry young men in their path to extremism than the inverse.
Granted, I didn't get past the first few pages, but what I read suggested that the authors' position is that there is little or no correlation between economic factors and the incidence of terrorism. 

Unless the authors change their position later on in their paper, this is once again an instance of you posting a link to something that doesn't support your claim, while seemingly believing that it does so.  Now, if you had claimed something along the lines of "there's far more evidence that low standards of living do not have an effect on the incidence of terrorism", then this paper, or what I read of it, would actually be somewhat pertinent, as opposed to, again, a non-sequitur.
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The entire thrust of the argument you are defending - that poverty causes terrorism
You seem to have misunderstood my position completely.  The argument that I am defending, if any, is that you have not supported your claim that "There's far more evidence that raising the living standards in certain countries funds millions of angry young men in their path to extremism than the inverse."  Maybe you can do so.  But twice you have linked to writings that don't support your position.