Yeah, as an engineer I'm already cringing at the idea that people's poor understanding of statistics/risk and the media's desire for sensationalism will combine to create a totally baseless and irrational fear of self-driving vehicles.
I wish they added to this media story "and here's how many people were killed that same day by idiot drivers, and here's the fatality rate of human drivers vs. AI per vehicle...".
Anything that slows down our progress towards fostering a broad public acceptance of AI drivers is essentially contributing to the deadly status quo.
Forgive me if I find this just a little bit humorous. I too find that the public's poor understanding of risk to be disconcerting. Particularly when it comes to the Deadly Status Quo
TM.
I'd like to start with the statistics for motor vehicle fatality rate in the United Sates, by year, compiled by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which I have so wonderfully found easily accessible on Wikipedia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_yearMmmmmmm. Delicious. The fatality rate per 100,000 population in 2016 was apparently 11.59. A Total of 37,461 deaths. Probably most of them kids in their teens or younger. That's pretty bad until you realize that the number of deaths actually has been going down. The peak year was apparently 1969. Which is strange because it was the "best days of our life", and you'd think with every young person afraid of dying in Vietnam they'd be particularly safe on the road. It's even more interesting when you consider that the fatality rate actually peaked in 1937, with 29.357 deaths per 100K of pop. I really don't understand why anyone would have wanted to drive in 1937 considering how gawd awful dangerous it was. They must have all been crazy.
This of course doesn't cross reference the deaths with the amount of vehicles on the road or the total amount of miles driven. Those numbers actually peaked in 1921, but that's because we don't have numbers for years prior. Apparently in 1921 you had 24 fatalities per 100 million total miles driven. In 2016 we are at 1.18. Statistically speaking, from that data alone, I have a 1 in a million chance of dying for every mile I drive. Absolutely terrifying. This is why I very carefully log my mileage and will make sure I stop driving at 999,999 miles driven.
These stats of course don't tell us the entire story. They don't tell us how age reflects risk. From my experience as a Paramedic working on the streets back in the summer of '99, I strongly suspect that the majority of vehicular fatalities are teenagers. I also strongly suspect that the majority of those teenagers were not wearing seat-belts when they decided to become one with the asfault. Not quite sure how much alcohol has an effect, but I'm sure the ladies of MADD would probably have strong opinions on it.
Really, until I can make Twikkie my chauffer, I think we should ban teenagers from driving and hook up breathalizers to all ignitions.
Of course, none of this can tell us how awesome and safe Ultron is going to be at driving us around. Given how awesome Windows 8 and iTunes is, I have no misgivings at all. I only hope I have the bandwidth and cash to handle all the updates. I'm sure that no matter, Maximilian will be a better and safer driver than a drunk teenager not wearing their seatbelt, and you will probably see a dramatic decrease in vehicular fatalities. That's as many as 37 thousand drunken teenagers without seatbelts that will live and grow old, be productive citizens, and have little children of their own.
Obviously there will be some hiccups. The strongest opposition for driver AI may not come from people without a proper sense of risk assessment (lord so many), but from the Teamsters. Lord knows what will happen when the unions become involved. I suspect that the rule will simply be that you have to keep a minder in the vehicle, despite the fact that the AI does all the driving. This will open up new opportunities for, as has already been stated, to read books, watch reruns of West Wing on your mobile device, or, most likely, to look at porn. I can only imagine the cost of the psychiatric counseling needed for the first responders of the future having seen that so rare vehicular fatality corpse with their hand around their member and a puzzled look of "what happened" on their face. I imagine we will be able to replace them with ED209 as well.
So I look forward to the bright future where great engineers and Bill Gates is able to save me from the terrors of the highway and free me from the tedium of actual experience by creating KARR. Or KITT. Whichever one was the good one. But I'd like mine to have the voice of Scarlet Johansen. Which will enhance my viewing pleasure.
Of course, the thing I am most afraid of is the same thing I am most afraid for: the beautiful children themselves. They are the future. Let them lead the way. Because when an entire generation abandons driving as work, only a select few dangerous citizens will remain who continue to drive themselves, probably on closed tracks, for pleasure. The day will come when Little Suzie is given the gift of an antique Mazda Miata by her eccentric great-great-uncle Grant, who taught her to drive in the underground touring circuit when she was 12. That will be the day that Suzie, who has the only drivable car in high school, becomes the coolest in skool. I expect the parents of the male football players will be severely unhappy with her. And when that happens, every kid will want a Mazda Miata, or Volkswagen Golf, or Oldsmobile Alero. An entire generation will rebel against KITT, because like Ricky Bobby, they want to go fast, and they find they like being in control, and that control is better than anything on HBO or Pornhub, because it is real, it is here, and it is now, and will be an escape from the rest of their lives that is entirely controlled for their safety.
Then of course, you will have to deal with the irrational fear. Because of course, today more people are afraid of flying than driving in a car. Of course, while flying is statistically MUCH safer than driving, that doesn't stop some people never wanting to get on an airplane, or even just being afraid of flying. The answer of course is that flying brings with it a loss of control. Joe Sixpack is at the mercy of the pilots. Joe Sixpack doesn't understand the general hazards of flight or the proceedures to be safe. He's just a passenger. And while it's safer to fly than drive, that loss of control is terrifying. When the plane or helicopter starts going down, there is nothing for him to do except put his heads between his legs and kiss his ass goodbye.
It's going to be interesting when the first major *censored*storm mass fatality hits due to Johnny 5 going haywire during a solar flare. Oh the press will have a field day. There won't have been a real mass fatality in years and years since they outlawed the AR-15. THE FEAR WILL BE YUUUUGE. Congressional hearings with Apple and Google and Pornhub CEOs. Oh sweet lord the irrational FEAR!
I just want you all to know that I personally welcome our future masters and the engineers that bring us Tay and Tesla autopilot, and want them to know that I was always on their side.
